Author Archive: Sohail Inayatullah

Featured Book: What Works (2015)

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What Works: Case Studies in the Practice of Foresight

By Sohail Inayatullah

Tamkang University Press, Tamsui, Taiwan, 2015

 

Book Cover of What Works: Case Studies in the Practice of Foresight

What Works furthers the practice of foresight in organizations, institutions, cities and nations. Divided into three parts, What Works moves from theorizing the future to case studies of foresight in action and concludes with innovative futures methods.

The first part introduces futures studies — its principles, theories and methods. The second and main part of the book presents case studies. Chapters include:

  • Deep inclusion in a digital era: democratic governance Asia 2030
  • Leap-frogging the West: e-health futures in Bangladesh
  • From the lecturer to the murabbi: the alternative futures of higher education in Malaysia
  • Leveraging development: the alternative scenarios for BRAC University
  • Transforming agriculture: from salinity research to greening the desert
  • Cities as agents of change: emerging issues and case studies
  • Going beyond the thin blue line: the futures of international policing
  • From the collection to co-creation: the futures of libraries and librarians
  • From crops to care: the changing nature of health care in rural Australia

The third and final section focuses on methodological innovation. These chapters explore the implications of forecasting the long-term future, the use of the Sarkar game in foresight workshops, and how causal layered analysis has been used to transform personal and institutional stories. The conclusion evaluates the use of futures thinking for strategy development.

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Featured Book: CLA 2.0 (2015)

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CLA 2.0: Transformative Research in Theory and Practice

Edited by Sohail Inayatullah and Ivana Milojević, Tamkang University Press, Tamsui, Taiwan, 2015

CLA 2.0 consolidates the latest in scholarly research on layered approaches to transformative change by thinkers and activists from around the world.

The authors use CLA to investigate topics such as:

  • The Global Financial Crisis
  • Global governance
  • Ageing and the changing workforce
  • Educational and university futures
  • Climate change
  • Water futures in the Muslim world
  • The alternative futures of China
  • Agricultural policy in Australia
  • The new national narrative in Singapore
  • Terrorism futures
CLA 2.0 book cover

Contributing authors: Mariya Absar, Marcus Anthony, Brian Bishop, Åse Bjurström, Peter Black, Lauren Breen, Robert Burke, Marcus Bussey, April Chin, Maree Conway, Andrew Curry, Peta Dzidic, Niki Ellis, Gilbert Fan, Nauman Farooqi, Tom Graves, Sabina Head, Jeanne Hoffman, Bai Huifen, Sohail Inayatullah, Anita Kelleher, Patricia Kelly, Noni Kenny, Adrian Kuah, Saliv Bin Larif, Aleta Lederwasch, Ian Lowe, Ivana Milojević, Jane Palmer, Jose Ramos, Yvette Montero Salvatico, Miriam Sannum, Wendy Schultz, Umar Sheraz, Lynda Shevellar, Frank Spencer, Debbie Terranova, Pham Thanh, Joonas Vola, Gautam Wahi, Cate Watson, and Tzu-Ying Wu.

Causal layered analysis can be used not just to deconstruct the future but to reconstruct the future, to create whole-of-worldview and narrative solutions to the complex problems humanity faces. This volume will be useful to theoreticians and practitioners who seek to use the future to change the present.

Purchase: CLA 2.0 Paperback, CLA Reader (2004) and CLA 2.0 (2015) Combined PDF, or CLA 2.0 PDF

Featured book: Asia 2038 (2018)

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Asia 2038: Ten Disruptions That Change Everything

By Sohail Inayatullah and Lu Na

Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University, Tamsui, 2018

Using insights from hundreds of foresight workshops in Asia, ASIA 2038: Ten Disruptions That Change Everything explores ten key disruptive emerging issues. These include:

  • The rise of Asian women;
  • The new extended Asian family;
  • The end of the God King and the Big Man;
  • New facilitated models of learning and teaching;
  • The wandering societies of Asia;
  • Climate change leading to institutionalized foresight;
  • The great migration to Asia;
  • Towards an Asian confederation;
  • Asia leading in the transition to a spiritual post-capitalist society; and,
  • An Asia that says yes to itself.

Along with an analysis of these disruptions, stories are used to illustrate these new futures.

Inayatullah and Lu Na argue that Asia is in the midst of a major and foundational shift. The shift is not only related to the spheres of economy, technology and geo-politics; equally important are current and coming social and cultural changes.

But this book is not just about what is likely to happen, it focuses more on using the future to create desired visions, since what we can foresee and imagine, we can also create.

Asia 2038 highlights ten interrelated emerging issues or disruptions that point towards multiple possibilities for Asia. The book intends to provide a working map of the nature of both the disruption and the many possibilities ahead, so that wiser decisions can be made as we create futures. In addition to these many possibilities the book also outlines a number of shared desired visions for Asia 2038, based on decades of conducting workshops and interviews with a range of people across the region.

Emerging issues are credible, potentially high impact occurrences which may be of low probability at the time they are identified. However, if and when they become the new norm, they ‘change everything’. What appears impossible can suddenly become the plausible.

Certainly, in the next twenty years and beyond, many things will remain stable. At the same time, we can also expect dramatic changes. As to which Asia actually emerges, while there are signs enabling “Continued Asian Miracle” and flatter, greener, more transparent, equitable and confederate Asia, other futures, such as “Asia in Decline” or perhaps “Fortress Asia” are equally possible. Whichever future results, the emerging issues and trends suggest more, not less, disruption in the decades to come.

However, Asia 2038 is thus not only about emerging trends and disruptions to come or about possibilities and scenarios for the future. It is also about imagining the best version of Asia, an Asia that continues to innovate and flourish in ways that benefit current and future generations. In sum, Asia 2038 as it could be.

Length: 142 pages

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Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Defined (2014)

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Sohail Inayatullah

A version of this appeared in The Futurist (January-February, 2014), 26.

 

RESEARCH THEORY AND METHOD

Causal layered analysis (CLA) is offered as a new research theory and method. As a theory it seeks to integrate empiricist, interpretive, critical, and action learning modes of knowing at inner and outer levels. As a method, its utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. It is also likely to be useful in developing more effective — deeper, inclusive, longer term — policy.

Since its invention in the late 1980s, it has been used successfully with governments, corporations, international think tanks, communities, and cities around the world. It has also been used as the primary research method for dozens of doctoral and master’s students around the world.

Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldview, and myth/metaphor. The first level is the litany — the official unquestioned view of reality. The second level is the social causation level, the systemic perspective. The data of the litany is explained and questioned at this second level. The third level is the discourse/worldview. Deeper, unconsciously held ideological, worldview and discursive assumptions are unpacked at this level. As well, how different stakeholders construct the litany and system is explored. The fourth level is the myth/metaphor, the unconscious emotive dimensions of the issue.

The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing. Different perspectives (including those of stakeholders, ideologies and epistemes) are in particular brought in the third and fourth levels – at the levels of worldview and myth. This allows for breadth. These differences are then used to reconstruct the more visible levels – social policy and litany.

CLA as well can be applied not just to the external world but to the inner world of meanings – the litany of self-representation, the system of identities, the discourses of the architecture of the mind, and foundational myths and metaphors that define the construction of identity. Conceptual movement through depth and breadth, allows for the creation of authentic alternative futures and integrated transformation. CLA begins and ends by questioning the future.

CLA, FUTURES STUDIES, AND POST-STRUCTURALISM

Embedded in the emerging discourse of futures studies, causal layered analysis (CLA) draws largely from poststructuralism, macrohistory, and postcolonial multicultural theory.[i] It seeks to move beyond the superficiality of conventional social science research and forecasting methods insofar as these methods are often unable to unpack discourses — worldviews and ideologies — not to mention archetypes, myths, and metaphors.

Causal layered analysis is concerned less with predicting a particular future and more with opening up the present and past to create alternative futures. It focuses less on the horizontal spatiality of futures and more on the vertical dimension of futures studies, of layers of analysis. Causal layered analysis opens up space for the articulation of constitutive discourses, which can then be shaped as scenarios. In essence, CLA is a search for integration in methodology, seeking to combine differing research traditions.

These traditions are in flux, in the social sciences generally and futures studies specifically. Futures studies has decisively moved from ontological concerns about the nature of the predicability of the universe to epistemological concerns about the knowledge interests in varied truth claims about the future.

This has led futures studies from being “the bastard child of positivism”,[ii] (prediction) to interpretation and ethnography (the meanings we give to data). And the field’s conceptual evolution has not stopped there. More recently, futures methodologies have been influenced by the poststructural thrust, with concerns for not what is being forecasted but what is missing from particular forecasts and images of the future. This is the layered approach to reality.

At the same time, the limits of instrumental rationality and strategic consciousness have become accepted, largely because of critiques of rationality by scholars associated with the environmental movement, the feminist movement, and spiritual movements — the new post-normal sciences — among others. Moreover, while globalisation has not suddenly developed a soft heart, the agenda now includes how we know the world and how these knowings are complicit in the disasters around us.[iii] This has led to calls to move from strategy as the defining metaphor of the world system to health, or inner and outer balance.

However, the move to poststructuralism, within the CLA framework, should not be at the expense of data–orientation or meaning–oriented research and activism. Indeed, data is seen in the context of meanings, within the context of epistemes (or knowledge parameters that structure meanings; for example, class, gender, the interstate system), and myths and metaphors that organise the deep beliefs, the traumas and transcendence that over time define identity — what it means to mean and to be. CLA does not argue for excluding the top level of the iceberg for bottom–of–the–sea analysis; rather, all levels are required and needed for fulfilling — valid and transformative — research. Moreover, in this loop of data–meaning–episteme–myth, reconstruction is not lost. Action is embedded in epistemology.

Thus, I argue here for an eclectic, integrated but layered approach to methodology. The approach is not based on the idiosyncratic notions of a particular researcher. Nor is it a turn to the postmodern, in that all methods or approaches are equally valid and valuable. Hierarchy is not lost and the vertical gaze remains. But it challenges power over others and divorces hierarchy from its feudal/traditional modes. This eclecticism is not merely a version of pragmatic empiricism — “do whatever works, just solve the problem”. How myth, worldview, and social context create particular litany problems remains foundational.

This politics of epistemology is part of the research process. Politics is acknowledged and self-interest disclosed. Of course, not all self-interest can be disclosed since we all operate from epistemes that are outside of our knowing efforts. Indeed, episteme shapes what we can and cannot know. While eclectic and layered approaches hope to capture some of the unknowns, by definition, the unknown remains mysterious. Acknowledging the unknown is central to futures research. This does not mean that the future cannot be precisely predicted, but rather that the unknown creeps into any research, as does the subjective. Moreover, the unknown is expressed in different ways and different ways of knowing are required to have access to it.

Freeing methodology from politics is a never–ending task; however, it can be accomplished not by controlling for these variables but by layering them

CLA, POLICY, AND STRATEGY

As mentioned above, CLA works at a number of levels, delving deeper than the litany, the headline, or a data level of reality to reach a systemic-level understanding of the causes for the litany. Below that level, CLA goes still further, searching for worldview or stakeholder views on issues. Finally, it unpacks the deepest metaphor levels of reality. Each subsequent level below reveals a deeper cause.

Take quality and safety issues in health care, for example. At the litany level, a problem in the United States is the more than 100,000 deaths per year related to medical mistakes. If we do not go deeper in understanding causation, almost always the business-as-usual strategy is to focus on the individual: more training for particular doctors. By going deeper, however, we discover that safety issues lie not just with particular doctors making mistakes, but rather with the medical and hospital system as a whole. Long working hours, hospitals poorly designed for a maturing society, and lack of communication among different parts of the https://sapmea.asn.au/cialis-20mg/ health system are among other key issues.

Below the systemic level is the worldview, the deep structure of modern medicine. At this level, the reductionist approach, while brilliant at certain types of problem solving, is less useful for connecting with patients, with seeing the whole. Thus, patients opt for other systems that provide a deeper connection. Patients thus intuitively move to the deepest level, that of myth and metaphor: “The patient will see you now” or “I am an expert of my body” challenge the modernist view of “the doctor is always right” as organizing metaphors.

CLA broadens our understanding of issues by creating deeper scenarios. We can explore deep myths and new litanies based on the points of view of different stakeholders—nurses, peer-to-peer health networks, future generations, caregivers, etc.—and then see how they construct problems and solutions.

Finally, CLA is used for implementing new strategies to address issues. Does the new strategy ensure systemic changes (incentives and fines)? Does it lead to worldview-cultural change? Is there a new metaphor, a narrative for the new strategy? And, most importantly, does the new vision have a new litany, a new way to ensure that the strategies reinforce the new future and are not chained to the past?

Causal Layered Analysis thus can be used to deepen our understanding of strategy. Mapping reality from the viewpoint of multiple stakeholders enables us to develop more-robust scenarios. It helps us to understand current reality, and, by giving us a tool to dig deeper and more broadly, it allows us to create an alternative future that is robust in its implementation.

 

[i] This is from the works of writers such as P.R. Sarkar, Ashis Nandy, and Edward Said.

[ii] J. Dator, e-mail transmission, 24 December 1992. Quoted in: S. Inayatullah, ‘From who am I to when am I?’, Futures, Vol 25, No 3, 1993, 236.

[iii] For example, the USA’s lack of capacity to understand Pushtun culture and its foundational categories of honor create a conflict with no ways out. See, Hasan Jafri, & Lewis Dolinsky, ‘Why bombing and warnings are not working’, San Francisco Chronicle, 16 October, 2001.

Seven Positive Trends Amidst the Doom and Gloom (2012)

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By Sohail Inayatullah

January 06, 2012

While there is a great deal of bad, indeed, horrendous, news in the world ­- global warming, terrorism, the global financial crisis, water shortages, worsening inequity – ­there are also signs of positive change.

GENOMICS

First, in genomics, the revolution of tailoring health advice has begun. Among other websites, www.23andme.com provides detailed personal genetic information to consumers. It provides, “the latest research on how your genes may affect risk for common diseases and conditions such as heart attack, arthritis and cancers.” Once your genome is analyzed, you will also be able to “see your personal history through a new lens with detailed information about your ancient ancestors and comparisons to global populations today.” This development in genomics is good news in that more

information about your personal health future is available. Of course, these are just probabilities and should be used wisely, helping each person make better health choices today. Avoiding creating self­fulfilling prophecies of potential future illnesses would be a priority in teaching individuals to understand their genome map. Bringing wisdom to more information is crucial especially given forecasts that within 10 years every baby will be given a complete genome map at birth.

MEDITATION

Second, there is positive news in meditation research. Study after study confirms that meditation is not only of individual benefit but as national health expenditures keep on increasing (because of increased demand from an aging population) along with exercise, low­fat vegetarian food and a close community, meditation as part of a national health strategy can reduce public health costs. For example, we know that studies show that regular meditators exhibit: 87% less heart disease, 55.4% less tumors, 50.2% less hospitalization, 30.6% less mental disorders and 30.4% less infectious diseases (Matthew Bambling, Mind, Body and Heart, Psychotherapy in Australia, February 2006, 52­59). There are even reports on the benefits of meditation for military care providers, not a sector known for spiritual development. Meditation even changes the nature of the brain. Researchers at Harvard, Yale and MIT have found that brain scans reveal that experienced meditators boasted increased thickness in parts of the brain that dealt with attention and processing sensory input. The structure of the adult brain can thus change, suggests the research. Indeed, research as well suggests that through meditation we can train ourselves to be more compassionate toward others. It appears that cultivating compassion and kindness through meditation affects brain regions that can make a person more empathetic to other peoples’ mental states, say researchers at the University of Wisconsin­ in Madison.

While we have had anecdotal evidence of the importance of meditation, developments in MRI scanning have taken the research to new levels providing us with visual and repeatable (scientific) evidence.

SPIRITUALITY

Third, we are witnessing a rise in the significance of spirituality as a worldview and as a practice. Spirituality is defined broadly as a practice that brings inner peace and love for self and the transcendent as well as being inclusive of others, that is, it does not claim to be exclusive or in a hierarchy of who is above and who is below. In their book, The Cultural Creatives, Paul Ray and Sherry Anderson go so far as to say that up to 25% of those in OECD nations now subscribe to a new worldview with spirituality as a central feature. Overtime this worldview will likely have increasingly tangible impacts on economic, transport and governance systems.

In their book, A Spiritual Audit of Corporate America, Ian Mitroff and Elizabeth Denton found “spirituality as one of the most important determinants of performance.” Of the 200 companies surveyed, sixty percent believed that spirituality was a benefit provided no particular view of religion was pushed. Georgeanne Lamont’s research in the UK at ‘soul­friendly’ companies ­ including Happy Computers, Bayer UK, Natwest, Microsoft UK, Scott Bader, Peach Personnel ­ found lower than average absenteeism, sickness and staff turnover ­ which saved the businesses money. In one example, Broadway Tyres introduced spiritual practices and absenteeism dropped from twenty­five/thirty percent to two percent.

And: research shows a positive correlation between spiritual organisations and the bottom line ­ organisations that can inspire employees to a ‘higher cause’ tend to have enhanced performance because of the increased motivation and commitment this tends to generate.

HEALTHY AND GREEN CITIES

Fourth, we are seeing that while many problems are too big for national governments, local governance is thriving. Many cities are taking the future to heart. In Australia for example, Future 2030 city projects are slowly becoming part of the norm (Brisbane, the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Logan City, for example). Cities are broadening democracy to include visioning. Citizens are asked about their desired image of their city – transport, skyline, design, and community – and are working with political leaders and professional staff to create their desired futures. This leads not only to cities changing in directions citizens authentically prefer, but it enhances the capacity of citizens to make a difference. Democracy becomes not only strengthened but the long­term becomes part of decision­ making – a type of anticipatory democracy is being created. Those politicians who prefer to keep power to themselves and not engage in the visioning tend to be booted out, suggests some research (Steve Gould, Creating Alternative Community Futures. MA thesis, University of the Sunshine Coast, 2009).

And what type of futures do citizens prefer? They tend to want more green (gardens on rooftops, for example), far less cars (more public transport), technology embedded in their day­ to­ day lives ­ a seamless integration of nature, the built environment and high technologies – and far more community spaces. They want to work from home, and many imagine new community centres where people of different professions can work individually but also share costs (and avoid loneliness). Imagine the savings in transport costs as well as greenhouse gas emissions. And time! Instead of expensive new infrastructure, creating flexible home­work­community­time options could save billions, not to mention no longer being stuck in traffic jams.

On a practical level, solid social science research demonstrates that cities can develop policies that enhance public health. For example in Australia, the Rockhampton 10,000 steps program has attempted to enhance the physical activity of citizens. Given the volumes of epidemiological evidence that show that regular physical activity promotes and improves health in endless ways, active health is a great best buy.

But it is not just physical health that planners are beginning to consider but psychological health. Research shows that green spaces in a city have a pronounced affect on the emotional health of residents, and the higher the biodiversity of green spaces, the more benefits. Thus, keeping green spaces helps in promoting physical and mental health. Enhancing green spaces can also reduce drought as there is considerable evidence that the suburban/strip mall model of development blocks billions of gallons of rainwater from seeping through the soil to replenish ground water (Tom Doggett, “Suburban Sprawl Blocks Water, Worsens U.S. Drought,” Aug 28, 2002, www.reuters.com).

As part of this rethinking of the city, planners are starting to see transport alternatives as being linked to community health. For example, we now know that air pollution is linked to heart disease, that is, clogged roads lead to clogged arteries (the amount of time spent in traffic increases the risk of heart disease. And if they do not design for health, most likely citizens who have been hospitalized will litigate against city officials for not designing cities for well­being.

NEW MEASUREMENTS

Fifth, nations, cities, corporations and non­governmental organizations are creating new ways of measuring their success. While earlier indicators of progress were all about the dollar, now triple bottom line measurements have taken off, and will continue to do so in the future. Instead of only measuring the single bottom line of profit, impacts on nature (sustainability) and on society (social inclusion) are becoming increasingly important, even in this financial crisis. One Australia city has even followed the example of Bhutan and developed a National Happiness index.

This enlargement of what counts as the bottom line is occurring because more and more evidence points to the fact that the economy rests on society which rests on nature. All three have to do well for us to survive and thrive, to move toward individual and collective happiness. Focus on one works in the short run but in the long run having a dynamic balance works best. Even the President of the European Commission, Manuel Barroso, has argued that it is time to go beyond GDP, as this traditional indicator only measures market activity, and not well­being. Says, Barroso, writing about GDP, “We cannot face the challenges of the future with the tools of the past.” Confirming this new approach, Hans­Gert Pöttering, the President of the European Parliament writes that: “well­being is not just growth; it is also health, environment, spirit and culture.” There are now even calls for spirituality to become the fourth bottom line.

PEER­-TO-­PEER AND SOCIAL NETWORKING

Sixth, while there are many benefits of the Information and Communication Technologies revolution, one of the key positive outcomes is the development of peer-­to­-peer power. Traditional hierarchical relations – top down models of relating to each other – are being challenged. And while it is far too early to say the dominator model of social relations will disappear in this generation, slowly over time there are indications that there will be far more balance in emerging futures. Hierarchy will become only one of the ways we engage with each other; the role of partnerships (through cooperatives) will continue to increase as new social technologies via the web make that possible. For example, already wikipedia has challenged traditional modes of knowledge authority. Websites such as kiva.org allow – though at a small level – direct person to person lending. This could have dramatic impacts on the big banks over time. Social peer­to­peer networking also reduces the ability of authoritarian states to use information communication technologies for surveillance benefits. Power moves from rigid hierarchies to far more fluid and socially inventive networks.

With more information available exponentially, the challenge will be to use information about our genome, our inner lives, and our localities in ways that empower and create harmony. New technologies such as the bodybugg and overtime health and eco­bots will help a great deal as they will give us immediate, interactive and tailored information on the futures we wish for (as does the newly invented smart toilet with its likely web links to http://asnu.com.au/viagra-online/ health providers. Health and eco­bots will be able to help us decide which products to buy (do they fit into my value structure, are they triple or quadruple bottom line), how much and how long to exercise and through social networking, enlist communities of support to help achieve desired futures.

HAPPINESS IS VIRAL

Seventh, finally, all the good news is infectious. Harvard social scientist Nicholas Christakis and his political­science colleague James Fowler at the University of California at San Diego argue “that emotions can pass among a network of people up to three degrees of separation away, so your joy may be [partly] determined by how cheerful your friends’ friends are, even if some of the people in this chain are total strangers to you. This means that health and happiness is not just created by individual behavior but by how they feed into the larger social network (Alice Park, “The Happiness Effect,” Time, Dec. 11, 2008). Happiness can be seen as viral; what the Indian mystic P.R. Sarkar has called the Microvita Effect.

All this does not mean we should dismiss attempts to transform social injustice but we need to appreciate how far we have come and focus on ways to improve material, intellectual and spiritual reality.

Positive steps forward can create more positive futures, for individuals and for societies.

Professor Sohail Inayatullah is a political scientist/futurist at the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University, Taiwan; and the Centre of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, Macquarie University, Sydney. He also an associate with Mt Eliza Executive Education, Melbourne Business School, where he co-teaches a bi-annual course titled, “Futures thinking and strategy development.”

Syria Scenarios: Thoughts on Transcending Violence (2012)

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By Ivana Milojević

Syria Scenarios
1. Continuation of a totalitarian state/crackdown. President Bashar al-Assads’ regime continues, maintained by the security forces use of violence, repression and bloodshed also continue. This is reminiscent of 2009-2011 Iran or 1992 Algeria. This scenario will also lead to Syria’s international isolation and the impoverishment of the Syrian population. The scenario relies on power based methods used by the regime. It is likely short-term, but unlikely long-term, because it can be expected that it will ultimately create some implosion within the regime itself (i.e. internal coup).
2. Transition to a western style democracy. Removal of current regime (perhaps violent overthrow of the current leader/leadership, Iraq-Egypt-Libya style or a removal by local groups currently militarily fighting the regime), via a combination of non-physical sanctions and military intervention, support of the opposition, rebel fighting groups, followed by the reform of the security sector and state institutions. This scenario also relies on power based methods, used by the international community and local groups such as the Free Syrian Army. Within this scenario diplomatic efforts by the Syrian National Council and Friends of Syria Group extend further. This scenario is likely.
3. Transcend solution. Transition to a federation, local autonomy, Sunnis/Shias-Alawis, Christian and Kurds autonomy and networking across the borders, international/UN peacekeeping, protection of religious and ethnic minorities, no foreign bases and flows of arms, utilisation of local peace-keeping and peace-building initiatives. This scenarios relies on interest/needs based methods used by both local and international groups. Unlikely short-term, necessary long-term.
4. Chaos/spreading of war. Dispersal of violent conflict into Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan; mass migration of refugees into Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon. This scenario relies on randomness, ad/hoc and chance based methods. Also possible within this scenario is war by proxy, i.e. involvement of regional stakeholders supporting various factions within Syria. Some aspects of this scenario are likely, but a whole scale spreading of war into other states is unlikely at this stage.

Stakeholders
Citizens of Syria, Bashar al-Assads’ regime, Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party and minor parties in the coalition (National Progressive Front), (illegal) Kurdish political parties, Military of Syria, Syrian opposition – Syrian National Council, rebel forces, governors of muafazat (administrative divisions), local human-rights groups/civil society, religious groups and their leaders, International community (UN security council, The Arab League, GAFTA, state-based governments, militaries, Friends of Syria group, human-rights organisations).

Analysis and policy advice based on four scenarios
Without an acceptable exit strategy Bashar al-Assads’ regime is highly unlikely to be motivated to negotiate and arrest the current extreme violence and repression. It is also less likely they will agree to negotiate with groups that are currently using violent methods aimed at overturning the regime. The regime’s main political goal is to remain in power. Their main need is to survive and to not be humiliated. The investigation into finding possible allies within the current regime and security forces should be seriously considered. ‘Softer’ elements of this group should be sought. These groups are more likely to negotiate with groups that are currently not killing or injuring their associates. In order to locate these ‘softer’ individuals (more interested in compromising and negotiating), local/regional groups (political analysts, journalists, civil society, religious leaders) and the Syrian opposition (Syrian National Council) as well as the international community (The Arab League, GAFTA, Friends of Syria group and various human-rights organisation) should be consulted. The goal is to find allies within the regime itself, those who can perhaps influence negotiation between harder elements of the regime and the international community. These individuals/groups can also provide further advice on acceptable ‘exit strategy’ for the regime. As well, as the regime counts on the continuous support of China and Russia to veto the UN security council decisions, and perhaps even provide other types of support (including military one), the role of diplomats of these countries may also prove vital in negotiating potential exist strategy for the regime.

International community is already involved, and it is highly likely that it will continue to enhance this involvement. Therefore, Continuation of a totalitarian state/crackdown, which relies on no further external involvement, though likely in the short-term, is highly unlikely in the long-term. Preparations for the type of involvement should thus be enhanced. The most likely scenario for the international community’s involvement is Transition to a western style democracy. This scenario is highly costly and can potentially backfire. Any military intervention is going to create a humanitarian deterioration and increase already the high number of deaths in Syria. If the scenario comes into being largely via military involvement it can potentially facilitate the emergence of a protracted conflict, entrenchment of the regime, later retribution within Syria and against external nation-states and their citizens involved. There is also a danger of the violent conflict spreading and becoming regional. Other dangers involved with this scenario are the financial costs to the international community if military involvement is long-lasting, and, once embarked upon, it is highly likely that it will be. Further to this, new grievances and injustices may be created in the process, i.e. support of the opposition parties/stakeholders who may replace one injustice-violence-repression with an another one (ethnic cleansing, insurgence, legitimising criminal elements, increase in fundamentalism, breakup of areas, sectarianism). The Chaos/spreading of war scenario can be prevented via selective use of peace-keeping operations, the goal of which would be maintenance of negative peace (the absence of direct, physical violence and destruction). Cooperation between the UN peacekeeping forces and local governments’ security forces is needed if the likelihood of this scenario increases (some aspects of this scenario are already happening, i.e. situation in Lebanon, although whole scale spreading of war into other states is at this stage still unlikely). The Transcend solution scenario relies on proposing alternatives that are meeting the needs of all involved, are sustainable in the long(er) term, are creatively disembodying conflict from the current dynamics and into visions of desired/preferable futures. The premise within this scenario is that the more alternatives are outlined the less likely is the violent outcome. Some of these alternatives may include: 1) Involvement of as many stakeholders in decision-making processes as possible (including civil society/ NGOs/ humanitarian organizations, business leaders, prominent organisations and religious community groups); 2) Work on consensus between the majority of the Arab league, Turkey and Western nations on one side and Iran, Russia and China on the other, in regards to the initiatives based on the International law (i.e. UNGA Resolution 2625) and nonviolence; 3) Proposal for the amnesty for Ba’ath Party members and security forces, with the exception of top political leadership and those directly involved in mass killings; 4) The Establishment of truth and reconciliation commission; 5) The Establishment of mechanisms for local control of oil industry and oil exports; 6) The Establishment of mechanisms for protection of minorities, human rights in general and women’s rights in particular; 7) The Prevention of widespread retributions against Alawite community; 8) Support for Syria to join WTO and consider re-joining GATT; 9) Enhancement of humanitarian aid efforts, provision of access for humanitarian organisation; 10) Support for de-militarisation initiatives, 11) Gradual transition to a new, more open and democratic society coupled with national reconciliation, 12) The unification of the opposition around the principles of nonviolence and explicitly outlined vision of desired future, and 13) Making clear that any group that uses violence will not receive any support by the international community. The Transcend solution initiatives are necessary for long-term conflict resolution in Syria, but may be difficult to implement in the short-term. Nonetheless, they should be attempted, either as the main set of strategies or in some combination with the initiatives outlined within previous scenarios. In any scenario, arming of the opposition would not be advisable, given that it may increase death toll among the civilian population. Work on peaceful negotiated settlement with as many local and global stakeholders is the most preferable.

The Futures of the University: Wikipedia Uni, Core-periphery Reversed, Incremental Managerialism or Bliss for All? (2011)

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By Sohail Inayatullah

 

ABSTRACT

This article explores the alternative futures of the university. After a review of critical drivers identified a decade ago in the book, the University in Transformation, three scenarios are presented. They are: Wikipedia Uni; Core-Periphery reversed and Incremental managerialism. In this last scenario, three zones of change are discussed: (1) zone of elite universities, (2) zone of mass education and (3) zone of experimentation. A final scenario, Bliss for all, the world as a university, is suggested in the conclusion. However, while we have the technology to create such a future, we currently do not have the collective wisdom – at best, bliss for the few is more likely.

In the University in Transformation [1], an anthology of articles on the futures of the university published 10 years ago, we – Jennifer Gidley and I – identified four critical drivers creating the futures of the university. In this essay, the drivers are reviewed and assessed as to how likely they are to continue to shape the plausible futures of the university. The essay concludes with alternative university scenarios.

GLOBALIZATION OF EDUCATION

The first driver identified was globalization, in its current neo-liberal form (and there are many types of globalization – spiritual, ecological/gaian, and utopian, for example), defining has been a resistance by states to continue to subsidize education [2]. This has meant a policy shift from considering education less as an investment and more as a cost [3]. Specifically it has led to categorizing parts of higher education as an export (in Australia, for example, in Brisbane [4] and Melbourne [5], education is the largest export, surpassing tourism) and aspects as an expense. The export-based curriculum areas– seeking to bring in students from the Asia-Pacific, particularly India – tend to be in the “real-world” areas of engineering, business, information technologies and vocational studies. When they are linked to immigration policy [6] they have especially grown, while other areas of knowledge such as philosophy and even languages, have been subjected to current market forces and cutbacks and thus have declined. Indeed, in the context of the continuing global financial crisis, just recently the Australian government announced that entry requirements would be relaxed for students wishing to study in Australia. As well, post-study work rights would be enhanced. [7]

The overall reason for education – as a civilizing force, as part of humanity’s treasure, as a long term investment in children, and as a right to dissent against the prevailing paradigm- has been put aside for shorter term market concerns. In the last ten years, this trend – and the drivers creating it – has not subsided but intensified.

These trends are likely to continue. What is likely to change is the direction of the exports. With the rise of Chindia [8], we can easily imagine a future where Chinese and Indian students stay at home, learning from local outposts of Western universities [9] as well as Chindia’s own educational institutions. Over a period of twenty years we can imagine Western students moving to the Asia-Pacific for higher education (and not only for language learning). While this may seem difficult to imagine now, if we go back twenty years, it would have been difficult to imagine the colossal economic rise of China (foreign reserves at 3.2 trillion dollars in 2011) [10], East Asia (for the first time Asia has more millionaires than Europe) [11,12] and segments of India. [13] Education for Chindia and much of East Asia remains an investment. Not a cost.

VIRTUALIZATION

The second trend identified was the virtualization of education. With fewer funds available for bricks and mortar and the logic of increasing the number of students, ministries of education and universities (led by India, Indonesia, Turkey, South Korea, China and other Asian nations) [14] have focused on using the Web to deliver education. While the savings are high – indeed, in the USA, one university , National Louis University, has even used the “Groupon” approach, offering a discount when at least fifteen people had signed up for the course [15]- and outreach stunning, what has partially hampered the success of distance delivery has been the mindset of university administrators and academics. They still remain in the expert-driven feudal model. That said, new applications; indeed, “an app for everything” is the new analogy for the futures of instruction. New applications are changing the nature of pedagogy and with exponential technological advancement we can see virtual becoming more like face-to-face. Costs will continue to go down (and climate change/peak oil/security concerns are likely to provide further incentives to virtualise). Innovation will continue to find ways for academics and students to become more comfortable in future virtualised “classrooms”. Over the long term the current distinctions between virtual and real will likely disappear and we, particularly digital [16] and genomic natives (the double-helix children), will become comfortable with different types of reality.

DEMOCRATIZATION – PEER TO PEER

The third trend identified was the democratization of education. By this we meant enhanced student participation as well as a flattening generally of the university. Over the last ten years, this has occurred but not expected. The peer to peer web platform has been the greatest flattening process – from Wikipedia to Wikileaks to www.ratemyprofessor.com.[1]

However, and this is crucial, democratization while partially recreating who creates knowledge, has not empowered students or academics in formal university or high school settings. The opposite has occurred. First, there has been a backlash against increased power of those below – a desire to return to the good old days of dominator authority. Second, as universities have adopted the neo-liberal globalization model, creating profits or merely surviving has meant retiring expensive professors and hiring cheaper younger PhDs. And, critically, the hiring has not been “full-time” but casual (no tenure, payment per course, no office space). In Australia,” casualization” is now 60% of the higher education workforce. [18] Comments Robin May who is currently completing her PhD on the university workforce. “You lead a very uncertain life being casual…you are literally hired by the hour, resulting in disengagement from the regular university life.” [19] Comparing the university to the garment industry, Patricia Kelly calls casual lecturers “piece workers of the mind” [20] And this is not a surprise. Globalization in its neoliberal variant “happens in an environment that is increasingly hierarchical, unequal, and insecure,” and it is gendered, women bear the brunt of inequity.[21] Experimental courses (new web courses, in particular) especially futures studies, gender studies and peace studies for example – have emerged by paying academics near volunteer wages. For those at the bottom pay scale, the problem becomes that of loyalty not just to the particular university (“why should I stay loyal when I am paid peanuts”) but to the university model of education itself, that is, “why should I not globalize myself and receive the benefits of globalization.” As loyalty breaks down we can anticipate far more innovation in the tertiary sector. This could include new academic run cooperative universities and alternative universities (with either particular ideological leanings or broader missions) attracting younger academics along different career trajectories. Along with some able to innovate, there will be many who will prefer, rightly, if not wisely, a politics of grievance in the university itself. As cutbacks continue, we can anticipate a far more challenging labor environment.

Returning to the good old days where education was a fully subsidized by the nation-state is currently unlikely but this does not necessarily mean retreating from the dignity of the academic and the nobility of the academic profession. Alternative futures are possible. For elite professors, the physical university and particular university branding will be far less important. In terms of phases, a possible trajectory would be from the lower run casual academic to the traditional tenure track academic to a portfolio academic approach (being linked to a number of universities) and finally to a model wherein the Professor becomes a brand unto him or herself. In each phase, agency is enhanced and the weight of structure reduced.

WAYS OF KNOWING – KNOWLEDGE ON THE EDGES

Our fourth driver or trend was multiculturalism in terms of new ways of knowing becoming an acceptable as part of pedagogy [22, 23, 24, 25]. There is no easy way to measure this but certainly the rise of the web with multiple languages and platforms has created more spaces then traditional hierarchies of knowledge. The rise of Chindia is slowly changing the game as well. But far more impressive has been technology itself as a way of mediating reality. We imagined far more diversity in knowledge regimes – indigenous ways of knowing, spirituality, integrated models of understanding. While these continue to mushroom, it is technology as a way of knowing that has been the disruptive, if not transformative, factor. With at least five billion [26] mobile phones now in global circulation and 6.07 billion estimated by the end of 2011 [27] and more of these becoming smart, pedagogy will keep on jumping the boundaries of the real into the differently real.

THE DISRUPTION

As always, leaving behind factory models of learning and teaching will be crucial as we move to a more 24/7 virtualized and globalized world. Focusing on ensuring equity and life wide and life long learning for those academics who do not become brands unto themselves or have portfolio careers, will be critical in the quest toward educational equity.

And, if national accreditation does break down or become porous, the 2.5 plus trillion dollar education industry [28] will be ripe for a major creative destruction. It will likely not be Google, Wikipedia or Facebook that will become the new Nalanda, Nanjing, Al-Azhar, Al Karaouine, Bologna, or Oxford or ….but someone else who will create the new platform for the pedagogies of the future. Is it wiser for nation-states to hold on to national accreditation, to regionalize as with the EU (and future Asian Union), or attempt to create something truly novel and lead the world by creating an institutional jump? Or…?

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

These questions are best answered through a description of alternate higher educational futures. Three futures are suggested. They are: Wikipedia Uni, Core-periphery reversed and Incremental managerialism.

WIKIPEDIA UNIVERSITY

In the first scenario, two shifts are central. First is a far greater flattening of the university – its structure as well as who teaches and the nature of teaching. While this future includes tremendous global educational diversity, one apt phrase is “the return of Bologna.” In the original University of Bologna model, students hired the professors. Instructors even needed permission to leave the city. The second shift is the reduction or elimination of national accreditation by a select group of nations. While many nations refuse to follow – citing national security, economic development and fear of being overwhelmed by new wealthy corporate entrants –  a few nations still experiment.

Porous national accreditation creates a major disruption leading to a social ecology of flatter global universities. The result is essentially Wikipedia University. There is still room for elite professors who ensure quality control as well as providing prestige. Dominator hierarchy is replaced by functional hierarchy. Quality gains are dramatic as the wisdom of the crowds, plus guidance by elite professors who are induced by salaries and innovation,   lead the way. Income is generated through student fees and advertising on software and hardware applications. Large corporate information providers such as Google jump in. Apple and Android applications play a dramatic role in localizing the global Wikipedia University. Application developers migrate in droves to this new educational platform. New technologies develop that make virtual feel more and more similar to face-to-face. These include holograms and group sharing of information (Cloud 2.0), beyond our current understandings – learning becomes dynamic and evolves quickly.

This does not mean that space for traditional universities disappears. If anything this world is characterized, particularly in the first 20 years, as a social ecology in flux. However, the dinosaurs are the traditional universities. The ability to adapt, determine the nature of the new ecological landscape, reinvent one’s core functions, allow for emergence, and allow stakeholders – students, in particular – to help mould the emerging future is a great advantage. Traditional universities are unwilling to adapt and do not use stakeholders to create, as they see themselves as the experts, indeed, they are even unable to notice that they exist in a rapidly changing knowledge social ecology.

By 2050, the feudal nature of university education is finally overthrown and along with it the factory model of learning. Universities by 2050 are unrecognizable to the visitor from the 20th century.

CORE-PERIPHERY REVERSED

In the second scenario, core-periphery relations are reversed.[29, 30] Phase one of this is currently occurring in China and India with the reverse brain drain. Phase two is the massive investments in education in China in particular, but Asia generally (Japan, Singapore, South Korea, India, for example). Over time, research leads to a positive and creative innovation cycle. [31] China, already, in 2011 is poised to become the world’s patent leader. [32, 33] In the future, tired of rising student fees in the West, and many local Asian success stories, Asian students stay “home” and European and American students join them. Initially this is in the areas of business, science and languages but gradually other fields also become major exports. As the Asian Union moves from only East Asian nations- the Chinese Diaspora – to include other still developing nations, Asia becomes an educational powerhouse. An Asian credit transfer regime is created, similar to the EU Bologna process. [34] Traditional rote learning paradigms for students and factory model pedagogy from Professors is replaced by diverse learning styles. Elite Western professors flock to Asia for the higher salaries. The West begins to experience their own brain drain as students and academic flock to the Asia-Pacific. However, hubris in the West does not allow strategic reactions until too late. Of course, many western universities already have local branches throughout Asia, but these are bought by large Asian universities seeking to export their services back to the empire. By 2050 Asian universities have branch campuses throughout Europe, Australia, and even the United States. Success creates success. Innovation creates Innovation. Power creates reality.

INCREMENTAL MANAGERIALISM – BUSINESS AS USUAL

In this third future, innovations in web 2.0 and beyond (web 3.0: mobile, holograms), globalization, flattening (democratization) and the rise of Asia do not dramatically change the nature of the university. There is incremental change but this does not lead to a tipping over to a new future. Yes, more Asian universities rise in global rankings. Yes, there is far more delivery over the web. Yes, mobility becomes central to pedagogy. Yes, universities accommodate globalization and states reduce investment in them except for courses that bring in export earnings. Yes, many universities become more sustainable changing how they use energy and redesigning curriculum to be climate change and Gaia sensitive. Yes, a world green campus ranking takes off (green metrics). [35, 36] And yes, globo sapiens [37] and cultural creatives [38, 39] gain in strength, and intelligence [40] becomes far more integrated. But over time, the university’s one thousand year conservative tradition continues. Cautious deans are proven correct: squeeze below, attract high paying students, remain connected to the alumni and find expert researchers who can bring in large dollar grants. Three zones emerge: (1) the zone of elite universities that have historical brand recognition- high fees, huge endowments and alumni networks. The world’s leading thought leaders continue to be associated with them. With vast funds, they remains above the market, seeing education as part of civil society, as a human right. (2) The zone of mass education. While this becomes more and more Asia based – demographic dividends in terms of the ratio of young people to old – life long and life wide (formal and informal and creative mixes) learning in the West allows Western universities to grow as well. (3) The zone of experimentation. Even within business-as-usual world, niche universities continue to thrive. Technological and economic disruptions and value changes create spaces for new entrants but only in niche areas. These include Islamic universities or programs teaching Islamic banking, for example, not to mention the new ecological – gardens in universities and universities in gardens – knowledge centres. Some of these experiments move to the mass market and become routinised while others stay on the cutting edge, challenging the current paradigm.

WHAT IS THE RIGHT QUESTION?

There are other possible futures as well. In the University in Transformation, we suggested “Bliss for all” as an idealistic scenario – the world as not just a connected brain but the world as mind. In this future, education is truly for all and the planet becomes not just a complex adaptive learning organization but a healing network as well – learning for ananda/bliss. [1] However, in 2011, while the technology for a world brain appears nearer, the wisdom for a world mind-heart appears further. At best, bliss for the few.

And which future will eventuate? This is the wrong question. Which future does my university desire to create? What support – intellectual, technological, humans and values – do we need to create this desired future? And finally: in a changing social ecology, what and where do we maintain and sustain and what and where do we innovate and transform

 

NOTES

[1] Anecdotally, I remember well one foresight workshop I facilitated in November 2009 in Singapore for Raffles Institution with forty 14 year olds. All of them frequently used Wikipedia, and over 50% claimed to have contributed content to Wikipedia. A few – one or two – had heard of Encyclopedia Britannica. Most had heard of the United Kingdom. And according to a study by the scientific journal Nature, the level of errors is similar. [17] However, Wikipedia articles can be corrected swiftly, while Encyclopedia Britannica takes substantially longer.

 

REFERENCES

[1] S. Inayatullah and J. Gidley (Eds.), The University in Transformation: Global perspectives on the futures of the university. Wesport, Ct, Bergin and Gravey, 2000.

[2] J. Odin and P. Manicas (Eds.), Globalization and Higher Education. University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu, 2004.

[3] Magna Charta Observatory, Crisis, cuts, contemplations: How academia may help rescuing society, Proceedings of the conference of the Magna Charta Observatory 17-18 September 2009. Damini, Bologna, 2010.

[4] http://www.brisbanemarketing.com.au/media/Media-Release.aspx?id=807&returnurl=~/Media/Media-Releases.aspx (accessed 4 January 2011).

[5] http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/pwc-mi-asialink/2009/default.html (accessed 4 January 2011).

[6] http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-yarra-monster-is-killing-us-20100822-13apt.html (accessed 4 January 2011).

[7] Fleur Anderson and Joanne Mather, Rules eased on student visas. The Australian Financial Review. 23, September 2011, 11.

[8] http://www.smh.com.au/business/chindia–you-aint-seen-nuthin-yet-20100923-15o2v.html (accessed 4 January 2011). For a more skeptical view, see S. Tharoor, A Chindia world. Deccan Chronicle 24 December 2010. http://www.deccanchronicle.com/dc-comment/chindia-world-412 (accessed 24 January 2011).

[9] NYU to open 1st American campus in Shanghai http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/culture/2011-01/21/c_13701018.htm (accessed 24 January 2011).

[10] Jamal Anderlini, China’s foreign reserves rise by $194bn. Financial Times. Ft.com.http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/96d6d02c-d683-11df-81f0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1A2M3mIGA (accessed 4 January 2011).

[11] Rand Corporation. Domestic Trends in the USA, China and Iran. www.rand.org (accessed 4 January 2011).

[12] http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Asia-Pacific_millionaires_worth_more_than_Europeans_study_999.html

(accessed 4 January 2011).

[13] S. Tharoor, The Elephant, the tiger and the cell phone: Reflections on India, the emerging 21st – century power. New York, Arcade Publishing, 2007.

[14] http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/publications/inet/1999/ExeSum.html (accessed 4 January 2011).

[15] http://www.psfk.com/2011/09/university-uses-groupon-to-attract-new-students.html (accessed 29 September 2011).

[16] For more on this, see the work of M. Prensky, www.markprensky.com (accessed 24 January 2011).

[17] http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7070/full/438900a.html Accessed 29 9 2011. http://www.wired.com/culture/lifestyle/news/2005/12/69844. Wikipedia, Brittanica: a toss up. (Accessed 29 9 2011).

[18] B. Luyt et al, Young people’s perceptions and usage of Wikipedia. Information research. 13(4) December 2008. http://informationr.net/ir/13-4/paper377.html (accessed 5 January 2011).

[19] S. Whyte, Aging academics set university time bomb. The Sydney Morning Herald 16 January 2011. http://www.smh.com.au/national/ageing-academics-set-university-timebomb-20110115-19ry1.html (accessed 24 January 2011).

[20] P. Kelly. Personal communications. 25 January 2011. pakelly@westnet.com.au.

[21] I. Milojevic, A critique of globalization: Not just a white man’s world in J. Dator, D. Pratt and Y. Seo (Eds.), Fairness, globalization and public institutions. University of Hawai’i Press, Honolulu, 2006, 82. For a feminist view on educational futures, see I. Milojevic, Educational futures: Dominant and contesting visions, Routledge, London, 2005.

[22] S.Inayatullah, M.Bussey and I. Milojevic (Eds.), Neohumanistic educational Futures. Tamkang University, Tamsui, 2006.

[23] M. Bussey, S. Inayatullah and I. Milojevic (Eds.), Alternative educational futures. Sense Publishers, Rotterdam, 2008.

[24] Z. Sardar (Ed.) Rescuing all of our futures. Praeger 21st Century Studies. Twickenham, England, 1999.

[25] R. Sidhu, Universities and globalization: To market, to market, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Inc. New Jersey, 2004.

[26] Jagdish Rebello, Global wireless subscriptions reach 5 billion. September 17, 2010. http://www.isuppli.com/Mobile-and-Wireless-Communications/News/Pages/Global-Wireless-Subscriptions-Reach-5-Billion.aspx.Accessed (accessed 4 January 2011).

[27] Syed Talal, Global mobile subscribers to cross 6 billion, Pakistan ranks 9th. http://tribune.com.pk/story/256342/global-mobile-subscribers-to-cross-6-billion-pakistan-ranks-9th/ (accessed 8 October 2011).

[28]Education is a 2.5 trillion dollar globally. http://www.edarabia.com/15179/education-is-a-2-5-trillion-business-globally/ (accessed 9 October 2011).

[29] US Universities losing clout in global education market.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/03/us-universities-losing-cl_n_599112.html (accessed 4 January 2011).

[30] Lee Lawrence, US college degrees: Still the best among world’s top universities? The Christian Science Monitor -http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/content/view/print/304688 (accessed 4 January 2011).

[31] Particularly noteworthy is the futures research at the Universiti Sains Malaysia. See, University Sains Malaysia, Constructing higher education scenarios. Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, 2007.

[32] Gordon Orr, Unleashing the Chinese inventor. The Wall Street Journal Asia. 28 December 2010.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704138604576030491764296296.html. (accessed 5 January 2011).

[33] China poised to become global innovation leader. http://thomsonreuters.com/content/press_room/legal/626670 (accessed 5 January 2011).

[34] M. Kelo Ed, The Future of the university: Translating Lisbon into practice. Lemmens, Bonn, 2006

[35] Nottingham celebrates world’s green campus ranking. BBC.com. http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/nottingham/hi/people_and_places/newsid_9353000/9353883.stm (accessed 24 January 2011).

[36] UI GreenMetric world university ranking. http://greenmetric.ui.ac.id/ (Accessed 8 October 2011)

[37] P. Kelly, Toward globo sapiens: Transforming learners in higher education, Sense Publishers, Rotterdam, 2008.

[38] P. Ray and S. Anderson, The Cultural creatives. New York, Random House, 2000. https://www.wisdomuniversity.org/emerging-culture.htm (accessed 8 October 2011).

[39] H. Tibbs, Changing cultures values and the transition to sustainability, Journal of Futures Studies, 15 (3), 13-32.

[40] M. Anthony, Integrated intelligence: classical and contemporary depictions of mind and intelligence and their educational implications. Sense Publishers, Rotterdam, 2008.

Global Award for Sunshine Coast Academic (2011)

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A UNIVERSITY of the Sunshine Coast adjunct professor who works to educate business, not-for-profit and government organisations on what the future holds has received a global award.

Professor Sohail Inayatullah received one of four 2010 Laurel Awards for all-time best futurists, after a vote by almost 3000 of his colleagues in the global Foresight Network.

Professor Sohail Inayatullah received one of four 2010 Laurel Awards for all-time best futurists, after a vote by almost 3000 of his colleagues in the global Foresight Network.

Professor Inayatullah, who has lived at Mooloolaba for the past decade but spends several months a year working internationally, recently consulted for a global cola drink company about changing health paradigms. This year, he will work with bodies including Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and the Pakistan Ministry of Commerce.

At USC, Professor Inayatullah has supervised PhD students on topics ranging from the futures of Queensland’s public service to foresight in Maroochy Shire to the changing nature of intelligence.

Futures studies involve activism, research and citizen visioning and intends to facilitate discussion between people who are experts in their fields about possible future outcomes and how these can be altered.

“It’s about empowering people in organisations to create better futures,” Professor Inayatullah said.

The Foresight Network membership includes future thinkers, strategists, change agents and policy makers from commercial, not-for-profit and governmental organisations.

The Sunshine Coast Daily
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/futurist-group-awards-prize-to-coast-academic/750975/