Meet the Futurist: Dr. S. Inayatullah at VC PAX Conference 2024

This interview was taken at VC APAX Conference (Asia-Pacific Islands) on March 25 – 28, 2024.

Conference Highlights:

  • Global Impact: VC LATINX and VCEUROPEX Conferences attracted participants from 25 and 46 countries respectively, fostering incredible diversity and networking at a global scale.
  • Expert Speakers: Attendees learned from over 70 speakers at VC LATINX and over 80 at VCEUROPEX, gaining valuable insights across business, health, and wellness.

Conference presentation link : https://www.futuresnetwork.tv/media/meet-the-futurist-dr-s-inayatullah-545135

Future literacy workshop Sohail leads the way (Tamkang News in Chinese)

Dr. Sohar, one of the top 2% scientists in the world. (Photography/Chen Youjing)

Dr. Sohail, one of the top 2% scientists in the world. (Photography/Chen Youjing)

The School of Education held two “Future Literacy Workshops” in ED601 at noon on March 5th and 7th, led by visiting research scholar Dr. Sohail Inayatullah, including academic About 70 people including Xu Huihuang, vice president and director of the Center for Sustainable Development and Social Innovation, and other members of the Futureization Committee, as well as teachers and students from the School of Education and the Seeds of Exploring Sustainability participated. Xu Huihuang delivered a speech at the workshop and expressed the hope that through Sohail’s leadership and application of tools and methods, we can achieve our expected future goals.

Sohail, one of the top 2% of scientists in the world, discussed “Futures” with teachers during the two-day workshop. He tells teachers that futuristic research is better than a crystal ball. “Because the crystal ball is asking others to tell you what the future is, and future research is you making a crystal ball.” He tried to ask questions from different angles to guide the discussion among members. He said: “There is no right answer. But this will It starts to put you in a mindset of future literacy and futurist thinking.”

In addition to guiding teachers to understand future research methods, he further mentioned “using the future” to create a vision of the future, “making the future compelling and making it different.” He cited the example of Singapore’s transportation department cooperating to transform Changi Airport. In order to defeat Dubai Airport, they held a workshop with Suhail and discussed the idea of ​​”3D printing avionics equipment” to turn Changi into the world’s first learning center airport in 2030, and immediately Put it into practice. He used this example to illustrate that futurists try to find out what the “next” is and help change strategies to make the vision a reality. “We are not only studying futurology, but we are also doing our best to change the future.”

In addition to case sharing, the second workshop was also conducted with Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Taking the theme of future thinking, Sohail emphasized that futures studies are the core of the development of education departments in various countries. He cited the Norwegian Ministry of Education as an example, which through cultivating personal achievements, collaboration, emergency response and ministry practice, Expanding the future of education.

When talking about the dilemma of future development, Sohail took Australia’s Roma countryside as an example to explore how humans respond when faced with threats. In addition to promoting industrial alliances and developing precision farming, Sohail can also use technology to coexist with threats. . He said that the ability to cope with and perform in the future is a powerful factor in becoming a leader in the industry. In terms of learning, he believes that interdisciplinary thinking, openness to different solutions, and positive thinking about the future are the only ways to cultivate future literacy, and can also increase work efficiency and life satisfaction.

Regarding the future university model, Sohail invited distinguished guests and students to form a workshop to talk about his future imagination of Tamkang University, such as no age limit for students, uberlization of the campus, and no traditional classrooms. E-campus. He asked the participants to deeply understand the concepts and practices of future education through brainstorming, and gradually achieve: “Make learning something that makes you happy from the bottom of your heart.”

Yip Rong, a Master of Operations and Management who participated in the workshop, said that he has further focused on the concept of futurism. He supports sustainable education and technological change, and hopes: “Starting from the discipline of future studies, I hope that there will be new technologies and new technologies in the future.” Education comes in the form.”

Report By: Lai Yingxiu and Chen Yun Tamsui Campus Report

Published By: Tamkang Times (in Chinese)

Click here to read the article in original in Chinese.

ZUKUNFTSFORSCHUNG, Kurzinterview mit Sohail Inayatullah : Interview with Pro zukunft January 2024 Edition

Sohail Inayatullah, a political scientist and futurist, is the UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies at the Sejahtera Centre for Sustainability and Humanity, IIUM, Malaysia. He is also Professor at Tamkang University, Taiwan and Associate at Melbourne Business School, the University of Melbourne. He teaches from www.metafutureschool.org where his courses include “Become a Futurist” and “Personal Futures: the CLA of the Self”. He is listed in the top two percent of the world’s scientists as measured by the highest impact of citations.

His most recent books include “CLA 3.0”, “The End of the Cow and other Emerging Issue”, “Asia 2038”, and with the Asian Development Bank, “Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific Region”.

In the past two years, he has presented to UNESCAP; ICESCO; PWC; ANZ; OECD; FAO; INTERPOL; WHO; Mitsubishi Motors; the Government of New Zealand; The Ho Chi Minh Academy in Vietnam; Victoria Police; the Government of Indonesia; The Asian Development Bank; Globe Telecom; the Philip- pines Senate; Aboitiz Infrastructure; the Pacific Community; GASERC; and the Queensland Crime and Corruption Commission.

Sohail Inayatullah, what do you under- stand by futurology?

Futures studies is the study of alternative and preferred futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. We work to enhance agency whenever possible, to assist individuals, organizations, and insti- tutions in deconstructing the narratives given to them and reconstructing the stories and visions they wish to create.

In my workshops I use the critical success factors approach asking groups:
Question 1. What is impossible today, but, if possible, changes everything?

Question 2. What is the used future?

A practice that no longer works – not aligned to the new vision or the changing world – but we continue to do it?

Question 3. What emerging issues do you think are most relevant for the next 10-20 years?

Question 4. What are the implications of these emerging issues for the next 10-20 years i.e., how might they impact how and what the organization does?

Question 5. What are the alternative futures – the scenarios? Or how do they compare with scenario work already done?

Question 6. What is the Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) – i.e., the current and future of energy markets based on four levels of understanding: the litany, the system, the worldview, and the metaphor?

Question 7. What is the backcast i.e., the trajectory between the future and the present – the signposts?

This process assists them to move from the present to alternative futures to the preferred and then back to the present. We try and make the vision, the future more plausible.

What are your main areas of work and research in the context of futurology?

Most of my work is in Causal Layered Analysis. This approach consists of four levels of understanding. The litany or the headlines – the official description of reality. The systems that create, explain, cause the headlines. The worldviews that create the system and then finally the metaphors that underlie the entire edifice of reality. Once the present is understood at the four layers, we then focus on creating new metaphors linked to new strategies.

Table 1 shows an example from the energy industry. Table 2 shows one from a futures dialogue between students and principals.

These interventions take the form of workshops, executive training courses, and books designed to understand how

to change systems and cultures. The goal, as I understand it, is not to be the smartest person in the room but co-create so others can shine.

And what are you currently working on? Most recently, I worked on the impact of generative AI on curriculum and assess- ment. I gave a speech focused on how teaching will likely change and new narra- tives of teaching and learning need to be created as we move to a world where we can learn anywhere, anytime, with anyone.

A few months I worked with local shires in regional Australia helping them adapt to the changing world of cellular agriculture. Often traditional systems react with fear when confronted with disruption. Our role in futures thinking is to assist and empower, indeed, decolonize.

While the worst-case scenario can be useful, often it is more important to focus on how the world is actually changing pro- viding data-rich case studies of the future in the present. Done well, innovative strate- gies can emerge. For example, in the case of rural areas the narrative shift has been from farmer as victim to farmer as scien- tist, to experimenting and investing in new technologies.

This last month, we (with my colleague Ivana Milojevic) have worked in Manila (The Asian Development Bank); Hanoi (Ho Chi Minh Academy) and Bangkok (the United Nations). Four main themes emerge: a focus on the transition to renewables; toward gender equality; AI to enhance equity; and new models of governance.

Which three book recommendations would you make?

In terms of my publications, if you are asking that, “Understanding Sarkar” focused on the world philosopher, Prabhat Ranjan Sarkar. It focused on comparing his views on history and the future to other grand thinkers such as Ibn Khaldun, Ssu-ma Ch’ien, Karl Marx, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel and Wladimir Georgijew- itsch Sorokin.

“Macrohistory and Macrohistorians” written with the great Johan Galtung focused on macrohistory and world futures.

The Causal Layered Analysis trilogy all present case studies on how CLA is being used throughout the world (“Introduction to CLA”, “CLA 2.0” and “CLA 3.0”).

Which encounters or texts have turned your world view upside down?

Meeting Jim Dator in 1976 began my jour- ney into futures studies. He was the best mentor and friend one could imagine. He focused not on the litany of minor changes but the tsunamis of deep change – ageing, AI, robotics, world government, and more. Second was being exposed to the work of Prabhat Ranjan Sarkar, particularly his books from the 1950s where he wrote on mind in technology as well as his imagined future of a world after nation-states, after capitalism and community, a world of mul- tiple bottom lines: prosperity, planet, peo- ple, and purpose (spirit). Third was Johan Galtung, who used macrohistory – the rise and fall of civilizations and other patterns – to think about the next 50 and 100 years. Fourth was my partner Ivana Milojevic – from her, I saw the power of voice of wom- en, the heroine’s journey. Fifth was meet- ing the late William Irwin Thompson. His books, “The time falling bodies take to light” and the “Pacific Shift” all moved the discourse from technology and waves of change to the deeper Jungian archetypes that use us and we use to make sense of the changing world.

Encounters with groups outside of pow- er have been helpful in having me think deeply about what works and what does not. One city we were working had just ex- perience war – they cared little for positive possibilities. We first had to explore the worst case before we could travel to the best case. Working with those in the dis- ability sector was powerful They imagined a world where they were deeply included by narrative and systemic changes i.e. the en- tire world designed like the para-Olympics village.

My conclusion with these encounters has been always asking, who is not in the room, as well as ensuring all design changes the deep story and the systems that emerge from these narratives, other- wise culture will continue to eat strategy for breakfast.

The goal of Futures studies for me re- mains, to move from anticipation to eman- cipation. www.metafuture.org www.metafutureschool.org

 Current TrendsPreferred RealityReconstructed Reality
LitanyCost of living and sustain- ability concern growing. Cus- tomers are more empoweredWe are all customers and producers of energyHouseholds collaborate with retailers to mange their energy where and when to choose
SystemIncreasing energy usage is contribution to higher costs and pollution. Technology is helping customers and competitorsHouseholds control their energy usage, cost and environmental impact through smart digital systems. Energy is integrated beyond the home to the community and beyondThe technology, products and solutions are available to make choices about energy production, usage and consumption
WorldviewSupply energy as a basic essential service, with price the key differentiatorEnergy is a decentralized and integrated ecosystemEnergy centralisation and decen- tralisation occur in harmony
Myth & Metaphor“Keep the lights on at the lowest cost”“Connect your home and community”“Choose your own energy adventure”

Table 1

Edmund RiceStudentsPrincipalIntegrated 2030
LitanyStudents know their needsTraditional teaching and learning is bestHolistic teaching and learning
SystemStudents design their education Fluid and FlexiblePrincipals and teachers design education for a changing worldSocial hubs anchor virtual learning Teacher as navigators and life gurus
WorldviewsStudent-led artificial intelli- gence enhanced educationTradition-led education with some reformsTechnology plus place plus spiritual learning
MetaphorTinder of educationThe authorityLife as learning: life as service

Table 2

Feminism, Futures Studies And The Futures of Feminist Research

Ivana Milojević[1]

            In 1995, we are part of thirty years of intensive feminist research. In these thirty years, research conducted from a feminist perspective has gone into many, sometimes even surprising, directions. Women’s studies now deal with women’s issues from many different viewpoints, feminist writers and researchers are coming from many different fields, traditions, and schools of thoughts. In these article, I examine the relationship between feminist and future research and also to contemplate how feminist research might possibly look in the future.

  FEMINIST RESEARCH IS FUTURE ORIENTED

            In one respect, almost every feminist research is inevitably futuristic. As feminism is a program for social change, feminists are concerned with offering alternative visions of the future.  Change is also incorporated into the feminist understanding of social reality. Seeing, for example, norms of the objectivity, customs, law, religion, science, and other areas as historically and socially constructed, gives greater opportunity for redefinition, for reconstruction, for questioning givens, for more radical transformation, for change. What is seen as man made could be woman remade. Therefore, feminist research does not only include extrapolation, forecasting, and analysis of current trends but alternative visions, as well, even if these are seen by many as unfeasible utopias. 

            However, feminists tend to concentrate more on preferred visions and scenarios because extrapolation does not give us much hope for the future. If the future is just “a bit more of the same”, then feminist goals would be achieved in hundreds if not thousands (and hundred thousands) of years.

   Of course, as there are many types of futures activities, the feminist movement does not correspond to all of them. In terms of specializing for different topics, or using different approaches there is a ‘division of labor’ within futures field. Some believe that futures field should be filled with analysis of trends, particularly analysis of technological developments or predictions, and even one of the most potential futuristic areas, science fiction, is predominantly derived from technological forecasting. Some futurists still believe in the ‘neutral’ role of a scientist who merely stands aside and marks, describes and predicts our nearby or distant future. On the other hand, there are more and more futurists who believe in futurism which is critical, value driven, and empancipatory, creating preferable futures.[2]  It is as much an “academic field as it is a social movement”,[3]  more concerned with creating instead of predicting the future. One of the central techniques used in this type of a futures work is empowerment. This technique is also used by many feminists. Empowering is seen as something which “involves giving people the ability, the power, to participate in the creation of their own futures”.[4]  Within this distinction feminism clearly stands on the side of those who “study likely alternatives (the probable)” and are more concerned about making ‘choices to bring about a particular future (the preferable)’.[5] The main focus is in the area of social futures, with constant critical and epistemological questioning about assumptions, paradigms, goals, values and purposes. Feminists often reject different schemes, tables and other ‘impersonal’ tools, coming closer to ancient and even ‘new age’ futurism which prefers intuition or imagination as specific subjective and qualitative research methods.[6]

            There is also a clear distinction among futurists (in both approaches) who are more in favor of pessimistic visioning, so called dystopias (or counter utopias) concerned with catastrophes and decline and those who are incurably optimistic. It is quite easy to locate feminism within these two traditions. As with most other social movements (especially so called ‘modern’ ones) feminism promises us a bright future if only we follow some of its main ideological principles. Feminism not only chooses utopias consciously, it also needs them for many futures are mostly redefined  ideological values and patterns, in accordance with short and long term political, personal (with and linking relationship between the two) and social goals. Without utopias, feminist ideology and activity would lose some of its strength; while without ideology and praxis, feminist utopias would remain pure ideals, inaccessible, out of history and social reality, more or less irrelevant.[7]

    In relationship to ideology, utopias, and movements, there is an important question in front of feminists. How much is feminist research and feminist output connected to the real world? And are feminist some sort of women’s elite, who actually don’t represent anyone else but themselves?  We know that there is sometimes a huge discrepancy between most ‘ordinary’ women’s and feminist’s opinions and attitudes. Here a few important points have to be made.

            First, since gender roles are one of the most strongly defined among all of our roles, viewed as natural and not susceptible for a change, it is not surprising that a perspective which challenges deeply rooted believes confronts so much resistance, both by men and women (who have internalized basic patriarchal values); Second, feminism defines itself in terms of having an open approach, and feminist researchers do try and listen to the women they are researching, such that in many cases the starting hypothesis is changed and redefined (as with participatory action research); Third, most women do agree with feminist goals and ideas, but resist defining themselves as feminist since from the beginning of the feminist movement, there has been so much condemnation and sneering at feminists.

However, feminist research has proven to be ‘successful’ in uncovering hidden structural phenomena, in inquiry that goes a step further from superficial reality. After the first shock, feminism has proven to be capable of real futuristic research, since with times more and more women have accepted feminist views partly because of the positive feedback that has come through realized futures, through societal changes. Issues like sexual harrassement have become common place finding their space even in such traditional (patriarchal) areas like women’s magazines and talk shows. Apart from its roles in changing consciousness some concrete measures have also occurred as a result of feminist inquiry. After discussing ways of achieving desirable visions, feminist offer propositions that can make a difference, that can be a stimulus for social change. Some of those propositions have became property of many social movements, parties, agendas, and even UN conventions. The results of research to a certain extent has changed previous attitudes and the ways reality was seen. It has therefore influenced policy makers as well, both on local and global level. By showing the subordinated position women are in, “positive discrimination”, changes in representation quotas has resulted, thus improving conditions in many areas. That is the reason that the knowledge and research are, within feminism, repeatedly seen as means for altering facts, for altering data, for altering conditions in human societies. Both production of theory and production of knowledge are seen as political activities, moreover they are also seen as power itself.

Feminist research is supposed to be politically ‘correct’, and it is supposed to help us achieve better society. Feminists want to understand and explain but moreover they want to emancipate and transform. That is the reason that it is often stressed that research must be designed in such a way to provide insights and visions and to establish a dialogue with the future.  

DIALOGUE BETWEEN FEMINISM AND FUTURES STUDIES

            This dialogue between feminism and futures is something which is still missing although feminism has a futuristic note and although future studies has became more gender conscious with years. Feminists would be able to benefit largely from using some specific futures methodological tools, mainly backcasting, where utopias, and current goals are be connected more tightly, where strategy results not from means-end planning but from envisioning a desired future, believing it has occurred and then working backward to “anticipate” how it occurred. Of course, not just backcasting but any futurist’s ways of exploring future possibilities, alternatives and choices, purposes, goals and intentions, their experience in planning and decision-making, use of metaphors, emerging issues and layered causal analysis, as well as constant critical and epistemological future studies questioning of assumptions, paradigms and purposes, can only be beneficial for the feminist research. What-if questions and scenarios could help us move from the present even more dramatically and thus create the real possibilities for new futures. Futurists involved in participatory and emancipatory futures activities are concerned with the preparation of people for changing the future, and even if the changes are through technological development they are largely considered in the context of cultural goals, generated from different spheres including grassroots activities. Many futurist as well as many feminists believe that the real change begins at the grassroots and that is the preferred change in contrast to directed one from the government and power positions.  This focus on grassroots activities is a crucial point of convergence between

futurists and feminists.

     Feminist should consider seriously getting involved in futures reasons for some pragmatic reasons as well. Our time is characterized by increased interest for future studies, whether because of the approaching “mellinium” or because of the unprecedented nature of technological change, the future has arrived. The number of publication and members in futuristic societies are largely increasing every year, and furthermore, within almost every separate scientific discipline, the futures approach is developing either as separate area or continuumum of what has been researched.[8] Through the future studies field feminism can spread its influence to many different areas which could be otherwise closed. Through a dialogue both fields can enrich themselves.

            In the next part of the article I discuss the feminist critique of the futures field and argue that futures studies should include feminist perspective in its dominant knowledge paradigm.  

FUTURE FUTURE RESEARCH SHOULD BE GENDER CONSCIOUS

            Future studies should have the most flexible, the most diverse, and sometimes even surprising approach since their field of study exists in the unlimited human mind rather then in already given events and data. But futrues studies also generates and follows epistemological and methodological practices from already existing social sciences. The work we are doing is inevitably limited not only because of traditional opinions in science, notions and theories which rules scientific thinking in certain periods, but also because of our own interests, values, dreams and visions.

            Critics of the research in the field of future studies argues that this field is also burdened with a male-centred bias. We could start with showing what is the proportion of women and man in the field, for example, we could show their participation in World Future Society, World Future Studies Federation, as well as in government planning agencies, among policy makers and others who control important political decision.[9] We could also analyse the sexism in titles, constant use of pronoun ‘he’ and noun ‘man’ when discussing ‘universal’ issues (though lately, language has become more sensitive), lack of topics of concern to women, etc.

            A deeper approach would include a critique of current methodologies and epistemologies in the field. Patricia Huckle, for example, stresses that much of future research methodologies is controlled by man and male viewpoints.[10]  She points out at the use of “experts” and the way problems are chosen in methods like Delphi technique or in developing future scenarios. Women would not chose experts but would prefer small groups, working together in an egalitarian environment to solve agreed upon problems. She further claims that not only methods closer to “science fiction” (science-fiction writing is, as she points out, also quite different when writting from feminist perspective) represents the man point of view, but that trend extrapolation, cross impact matrices, quantifiable data for identifying alternative future, simulation modeling, simulation gaming and technological forecasting also “suffer from the limits of available data and ideological assumptions”. The questions asked, the statistics collected, the larger framework of knowledge remain technocratic–and thus male in the sense that they avoid issues central to women.

            However, most assumptions futurists hold about the future, feminists share as well. Those would be: that the future is not predetermined and thus not predictable; that the range of alternative futures exists, and; that the future will be (from minor to major changes) different in many respects from the present world.

            However, among basic assumptions about the future belong another one which would be very problematic seen from a feminist perspective. And that is that the notion that future outcomes can be influenced by individual choices and that individuals are solely responsible for the future.[11]  While this is certainly true on one level, this assumption has to be put into social context, reinforced with the concept of power and the availability of the choices. Otherwise it would represent typical Western and male way of looking at those enpoverished women bounded by tradition, family, society, economy or politics. In its bare form it further assumes position of power, stability, democratic and moderately rich environment. Unfortunately, for the vast majority of people the future does just happen to them. Black and white, aggressor/victim theory would not contribute much to the discussion. But, for example, let us consider the future (or past which was future once) of those who were colonized. Some people attempt to avoid or resist colonization, but for most whatever they attempted to do, colonization was a given, almost like a physical force in a form of tornado. The unavailability of choices also implies to people in war zones, ordinary citizens, children abused by adults, young women sold as sex slaves, and unfortunately, many, many others. When looking at the metaphor for choices, that one of using road map to get to particular destination, it is forgotten that most people in our global world, and women especially, do not possess neither map nor a car. Furthermore, put in the mentioned situation they would not know how to read the map as it is a product limited to a particular culture and particular class. To conclude, there are many things we, as humans, or as a particular group of people, can do about the changing conditions of our lives, about influencing our future. But, there are maybe even more things, we as a particular group of people, individual or family unit, can do nothing about, since we exist within given historical social and world structures (gender, of course, being one of these historical structures).

            There is also one very specific area in which many feminists see the most danger in having male-dominated future’s research and that is the area of controlled reproduction.[12] Man has been trying to control and dominate women’s participation in procreation at least since the beginning of the patriarchy, and current development of medical science might enable them to gain almost complete control over human reproduction. This would totally marginalize women, as they would be enterily removed from the reproductive biological cycle. Feminists argue that in this crucial area of future of the humanity and human evolution women’s approach must be of extreme importance. This is so not only because these are our bodies and genes involved, but as welll because women were largely responsible for human reproduction from the beginning of our species existence, our identities have become to a large extent based on this biological history. Of course, cutting this responsibility could be by some seen as liberating for women’s destinies (they would escaped childbirth and possibly childrearing), but what is worrisome is that it could further decrease woman’s say in what would be our common future. Developments in genetics are occuring without women’s voices, Bonnie Spanier argues in her Im/Partial Science: Gender Ideology in Moecular Biology[13] nongendered bacteria are described in gendered terms, often reinscribing dominant/subordinate relationships. Even the building blocks of life (and they are being transformed by new technlogies) are not immune from sexual ideology.

            Unfortunately, it is not only medicine and biology where women do not have control over the research agenda. Women’s participation in science in general is still very limited, and so it is in the futures field.  However, there are many reasons why women should be included in this field.  

(1)        Women’s role in many societies is changing rapidly, women are becoming more visible in many public areas. Statistically, we represent at least half of the humanity, and in the future women could significantly outnumber men (given the improvement in health and the fact of longer life expectation). The importance of physical force is decreasing with new technological changes so another argument for women’s subordinated position is disappearing.

(2)        Eleonora Masini argues that women can create alternatives for future better then men because of certain individual (flexibility, rapid response to emergency situations, superimposition of tasks, definite priorities and adaptability) and social capacities (solidarity, exchange, overcoming of barriers). She also shows the impressive range of women’s activities in many social movements such as peace, human rights and ecological movement. These activities will influence the future, less in terms of obvious revolution and more in terms of “an important, slow historical process of change”,[14] in creating a global civil society.

(3)        Many futurist perfer not to predict how the future would look like, seeing prediction as a mere extension of present data. They would rather see futures (and use such methods) which would bring better lives for the majority in the world community. As for women, wherever we look, no matter how bad conditions men are in, women’s conditions are always worse. According to data extrapolation, women will continue to suffer from poverty, violence, malnutrition, physical and mental abuse. We will also continue to be disadvantaged in employment, education, politics, health, law, and planning, i.e. in “controlling” the future. Clearly, women have an important say in how and what methods are used in understanding and creating the future, particularly in exploring partnership visions of the futures.

(4)        Most social scientist agree that we are entering a new era. The names range from ‘postindustrial’ to ‘information’ or ‘tourist, traveling’ societies but what is characteristic for the time we live in is that, like in all other major transitions in the past, we witness huge changes in almost every aspect of our lives. One of the main area where those changes are taking place is in our systems of belief and ways of knowing. Many intellectual see this era as the end of the domination of the Western civilization, which has reached its peak and which could collapse or it could be qualitatively transformed. In many respects, not only women’s but the future of the humanity does not promise much if we don’t  radically change our ways of exploiting the nature, organizing society, treating the “other”, dealing with differences. Feminist visionaries could give important contribution in making alternative ways of living and thinking, in describing the transition into this new era.

(5)        Even while there is a visionary dimension to futures studies, at the same time, the Future field is in some ways responsible for maintenance of the status quo. As Slaughter argues: “Many of the major institutional centers of futures activity have tended to maintain close links with the centers of social and economic power. Future research, forecasting, and education appear to be dependent upon government or corporate support and hence constrained to varying degrees by given definitions, imperatives, and economic structures”.[15] Slaughter also points out that the field remains strongly associated with North America and that many of the future studies institutionalized forums has became associated with the needs of relatively powerful groups. This would represent an artificial narrowing of vision, a closure rather than an expansion.[16] Extending futures field by critical approaches, feminist and others, could help remove these limitations.

  PRINCIPLES FOR NON-SEXIST FUTURE RESEARCH[17]

     Feminist researchers developed several epistemological principles for gender conscious research. Cook and Fonow summarize them in five basic ones:[18]

(1)        acknowledging the pervasive influence of gender;

(2)        focus on consciousness-raising;

(3)        rejection of the subject/object separation and assumption           that personal experience is unscientific;

(4)        concern for the ethical implications of research;

(5)        emphasis on the empowerment of women and transformation of

            patriarchal social institutions through research.  

            In similar way Margrit Eichler gives four epistemological principles or rather propositions which she derives from the basic postulate of the sociology of knowledge. Those principles are:  

(1)        all knowledge is socially constructed;

(2)        the dominant ideology is that of the ruling group;

(3)        there is no such thing as value-free science and the social

            science so far have served and reflected men’s interests;

(4)        and because people’s perspective varies systematically with       their position in society, the perspectives of men and women             differ.[19]  

    Besides this epistemological principles feminist have made few changes within social science methodology. Methods used in feminist research are actually ones which already exist and are recognizable tools in social sciences.  What is new is the way they are applied, more precisely the thematic content they are used within. Thematic content is changed in two main ways:  

(1) already existing data and “facts” are re-examined and reinterpreted from a new perspective, and

(2) previously non-existing phenomena or those considered of no importance are analyzed (childbirth, housework, wife abuse, rape, incest, divorce, widowhood, infertility, sexual harassment, pornography, prostitution, women’s thoughts from private letters, memoirs, diaries, journals) and stress is given to some crisis situations which demystify the assumed naturalness of patriarchy.

    If futures research wants to be non-sexist or rather feminist-gender-conscious it does not have to follow all of the principles but at least a few. It is also important to pay attention and avoid sexism in titles, in language, in concepts, in research designs, in methods, in data interpretation and in policy evaluation.[20]  Future feminist research (done by those who share the values of feminism and futures studies) must take into account rapid changes and rethink some of the methods used. For example, within futures field topics such as future childbirth have been discussed but some of the very important question have not been stressed enough. We know quite a bit about possibilities for having children produced in artificial wombs, about genetic engineering and choices enabled by technological developments; however, questions such as: what would that mean for the babies and women, how would their experience look like, what would artificial upbringing mean to the relationship between mother and her children, are women still going to have the right to breastfeed, who is going to decide about how many babies is particular women going to have, and many others, have rarely been raised. Here, futures research still stays in the secure domain of technological forecasting, unable to reveal the circulation of power in particular futures.

             Past and current feminist research rediscovered women’s history and their existence as people and persons rather then just in terms of their relationship to men, mostly through women’s private letters and diaries. Some questions about the future would include, for example, how would feminist research draw conclusion on women’s thoughts in the time of depersonalized personal computers, who has control over communication process and is women’s work going to disappear from hard drives and diskettes as it had disappeared through other forms of written history? Or questions about the future of the housework: If housework is going to be done with the help of robots, who is going to make the software, whose priorities within the household are going to be respected, those of men, women or children? Many other have to be raised and that is where futures feminist research should channel its energy.            

THE FUTURE OF THE FEMINIST RESEARCH

      In order to discuss what would be the future of feminist research I would like to quickly skim through the history and main changes in research done by feminist. When we talk about its relationship with science, feminist research has gone through three main phases. In the first phase, feminist authors discovered women’s absence from the mainstream, or, how it is sometimes called, malestream science, accusing it for being sexist, partial, biased, with strong patriarchal values incorporated into “objective” theories and data.  In the second phase, the inclusion (re)discovery of female voices, histories, thoughts, beliefs, lives and visions resulted, mostly through qualitative approaches. So after the initial deconstructionalist phase, we gained research about women done by women and for women.  The Third phase would result in some kind of synthesis, in the incorporation of feminist research into a transformed mainstream science and realization by feminists that only if they research men as well as women can they develop a feminist science. [21] In this phase deconstruction also becomes more radical by challenging the category of women (and men) itself.

            Following the current efforts and inclinations we would expect that feminist research would go even more towards interdisciplinary approach, and become more and more diverse, and more future focused. In addition, to a more future focus, the last decade has seen feminism become more civilizationally and cultural sensitive. The feminist movement has become increasingly aware of overgeneralizations, especially implementations of Western feminist positions to the other parts of world. We, as women, do share similar destinies, but it has become obvious that not the same solutions can apply everywhere. Aminata Traore, for example, stresses that:  

They (Western feminist) have appropriated to themselves the right to interfere in our affairs, to dissect and pass judgement on them and to draw conclusions that have sometimes become action programs against which we can do nothing…. Together they want to liberate us from our cultural realities which they regard as archaic, and from our governments which they consider to be corrupt… In Africa the greatest impediments to women’s advancement are economic and political. But international thinking merely condemns our societies and our cultures.”[22]  

She also points out that many African women are determined to distinguish themselves from Western feminism, so many women’s associations insist on being regarded as “feminine” rather than “feminist”. The same implies to many other women, including Muslim women, women from former socialist countries or Chinese women who also coined a new term and would like to be seen as involved in “feminology” instead in “feminism”. Although the Western approach has been predominant so far within the feminist movement, voices of women from other traditions are increasingly heard, and are shaping the future of the feminist movement, itself. It is interesting to notice the different perception of Muslim and other women in the example of veiling. While, for most Western feminists, veiling and other forms of women’s covering could mean nothing but the horror, the ultimate in women’s oppression, for most Muslim women, the experience is quite the opposite. For them, head scarves and long sleeves may be experienced as a sensible way to dress in the hot climate, it can mean a statement of support for their religious beliefs, or an economic way to dress, the choice to live peacefully among neighbors, or the protection against sexual harassment. Embrace of fundamentalism, so scary for Westerners if it is not the fundamentalism of their own, could actually be the path to liberation for many Muslim women. They could use religion as their protection and a way of confronting men, seeing Western women as disadvantaged as they could turn only to less confining abstract morality and concrete law. [23] Inclusion of “the Other” has helped feminism see certain contradictions, like, for example, “The contradiction between liberalism (as patriarchal and individualist in structure and ideology) and feminism (as sexual egalitarian and collectivist)”. [24] So while most Western feminists start “with a recognition of freedom of choice, individuality, and ‘rights'”, these concepts are “specified in terms of the way that Patriarchy organizes racial and economic inequality”. [25] 

            Feminism has learned a great deal from the inclusion of other perspectives.  This has been further encouraged by the influence of postmodernism. While feminists have criticized many of the malestream theories which would claim to speak universal truths, “particularly in the early days of feminist theory, many accounts that aimed for explanations of male/female relations across large sweeps of history were proposed. Moreover, and this is a tendency that continues, many feminist writings have included statements containing terms such as man, women, sex, sexism, rape, body, nature, mothering, without any historical or societal qualifiers attached.” [26]  “The production of grand social theories, which by definition attempt to speak for all women, was disrupted by the political pressures put upon such theorizing by those left out of it – poor and working-class women, women of color, lesbians, differently-abled women, fat women, older women”.[27]  For Linda Nicholson postmodernism then “appeared as an important movement for helping feminists uncover that which was theoretically problematic in much modern political and social theory. Postmodernism was also useful in helping feminism eradicate those elements within itself that prevented an adequate theorization of differences among women”. [28] She further concludes, that what “postmodernism adds to feminism is an expansion of the widely held feminist dictum “The personal is political” to include the dictum “the epistemic is political”, as well. [29] It is interesting to point out that feminism through this embrace of postmodernism stay critical, if not sometimes sarcastic, towards some of its conceptions: “Surely it is no coincidence that the Western white male elite proclaimed the death of the subject at precisely the moment at which it might have had to share that status with the women and peoples of other races and classes who were beginning to challenge its supremacy”. [30] While feminism might “use” postmodernism for its own purposes, it tries to remain that critical note, which has been present from the very beginning in feminist research.

            Futures studies, of course, have been involved in a similar broadening. While Mary Daly argues that “patriarchy appears to be ‘everywhere'”, and that “even outer space and the future have been colonized” [31], it seems that “the future” as a category in itself is being decolonized. Or at least, colonizers have been exposed. Instead of only being concerned about technological forecasting, images of the future based on discrete civilizational categories are increasingly being explored. [32]  Moreover, the field in itself has been challenged as being overly male, Western, not just in terms of its participants but in terms of the knowledge categories used.  Thus more voices are entering “the future” as they are entering “the feminism”, at one level contesting these fields and another level creatively re-making them based on different cultural histories.

            The need for expanding the feminist field so it can include non-Western perspectives, Ann Curhoys has called ‘the three body problem’ of feminism (class, race and gender analysis). Since there is an infinite complexity at any level of analysis, many choose only one concept or at the most two. Trying to incorporates all three concept into research makes analysis too complex to handle. However, despite all the difficulties, incorporation of cultural and ethnic diversity as central, rather than a marginal or “added on” issue, becomes the basic task for future feminist research if it wants to form the basis for an adequate social theory. [33]

    Besides the need to incorporate culture, religion, race, age and class analysis, future feminist research has to consider technological and societal changes as well. Already research by such writers as Donna Harraway in her excellent Simians, Cyborgs, and Women [34] has begun the process of locating feminism in the emerging new technologies.

            More research is needed on the feminist response to current world problems such are energy crises, increase in unemployment and poverty, increase in social differentiation, in pollution, in violence, to mention just the few areas of research. How would feminism see the way out of these problem and what would be its solutions for the future? In trying to give certain visions and preferable scenarios for the future, futures feminist research would be increasingly beginning with the experience of women as central, and the traditional malestream approach as “the Other”. Up till now feminist research mostly began the other way around. For example, Kathy Ferguson titles her book, The Man Question instead of phrasing it in the traditional way (“The Women question” as socialists did). The time has come for a change, since feminism have gained so much in its strength. Even if the actual movement is not so present in the streets and mass gathering, women’s movement in West has became incorporated within most public spheres, within the categories men and women use to see. Some believe that this success means that feminism is dead, therefore we cannot speak about any future feminist research. “I realized finally that feminism, as such, was finished forever: a victim of its own success. Better that women get on with it–with working, writing, teaching, driving taxis, whatever–and stop thinking about themselves a s a special sub-species of the human race, in need of special attention.” [35]

            My opinion is that this is too good to be true and that while feminism has achieved some things in some countries, as long as women continue to do two thirds of the work on this planet, earning and owning less then 10% of world’s resources, and as long as women stay discriminated in almost every single area of human life, we need a feminist research. Feminism gave us new vision on gender issues, it has became one of the central tools in gender analysis and there is no reason to abandon it at this point in history.

            On the contrary, feminism is becoming a world phenomenon with a growing feminist consciousness in developing and poor countries. It does face a backlash all over the world as well, but what is more important is that feminism is increasingly becoming part of the dominant scientific paradigm, particularly in Western societies (sexism is much easier to criticise and institutions are forced to make gender changes to accomodate women). Because of its strength it can now afford to be criticized, especially from the position of non-white, non-western, non-middle/upper class women. Malestream universalism is then challenged not with another universalism but with the approach which is inherently open, more inclusive with true calls for diversity and difference. Feminism then has only few ‘givens’ and everything else is to be open for discussion and redefinition. Through all the differences, all feminist and vast majority of women concerned with improving women’s position within their societies agree that it is necessary to understand women’s subordination and to emancipate us. Analysis of causes of subordination as well as how emancipation is to be achieved vary, so we could expect to see different solution depending on a position taken. Feminist research will be different if taken from liberal, marxist, socialist, radical, reformist, black, lesbian, or anarchist feminism, and it will go in quite different directions if taken by Muslim, feminologist or within feminine approach. This diversity can only enrich current feminism and help think about how to achieve more just societies.

     When we talk about changes in feminist theory and epistemology we should remember that feminist methods did not appear completely independently, out of nowhere. They represent historical development within both science and society. The stimulus from society came mostly through democratization (industrialization) of Western societies in this century and feminist movements. Within social sciences, feminist methods and principle of feminist research follow several traditions such as: hermeneutics (inclusion of the subjective into the research), critical theory (orientation towards action, social change and emancipation), empiricism (partialities and biases are correctable through methodological improvements), postmodern approach (skepticism about universal “truths” and universalizing statements based on inevitably partial knowledge), standpoint epistemology (in their view that those who are less powerful have access to more complete knowledge through so called double vision). In that sense, the future of feminist research will also be connected with the changes both in science and in wider societies. Riane Eisler sees questioning of sex roles and relations as a part of a broader movement towards greater democracy and egalitarianism. This global movement for change happens in both private and public spheres with attempts to create a world in which the principles of partnership rather than domination and submission are primary, “the world of greater partnership and peace, not only between men and women but between the diverse nations, races, religions and ethnic groups on our planet”.[36]  Most futurists, at least those within critical and emancipatory tradition, are part of this global movement. So are most feminists. In that sense it is extremely important to establish dialogue between all of those who claim to be trying to achieve more just societies. This concern, how to think and make an “ideal” society, has been present for thousands of years. Throughout our recorded history different forms of domination had been challenged. Priests and wizards, kings and chiefs, rich and white, male and old, they all had seen at least some of their powers diminished. At the same time, we are almost as far from society which would be free from injustices, victims, oppressed and discriminated, as we have ever been. There is enough data to support the view that, in terms of justice, nothing had been and cannot be done.

            At least four different (philosophical) viewpoints crystallized on transformations of human societies experienced since the beginning of our history, in terms of discriminations and improvement of our societal organization:  

(1)        History is linear in the sense that every new society        represents different but at the same time more developed and       “better” way of organizing our lives.

(2)  History is linear in the sense that every new society represents further withdrawal of who we really are.        Eventually, this direction will lead us to total distraction,       humans as a species will stop to exist.

(3)        History is cyclical: every new society is in some ways better

            and in some ways worst then the lost one. But there is no real

            improvement in our lives, nothing is forever, i.e. everything

            is susceptible to change and can go either way.

(4)        History is static: there had not been any improvement in human

            lives, there were and will always be oppressors and oppressed,

            just names are changing, and different groups are getting into

            first or second category.

            So, what could be the future of the dispowered half of the humanity that are women? Our future is seen differently from feminist and non-feminist (all others) perspective, and at the same time it will effect any research done in the future, as part of the wider societal influence. Here I will look at the four possible scenarios and what would each mean for futures feminist research.

history valuedbasic categorieswomenfuture
linear positiveimprovementchanges in franchise, laws, educa-tion, employ-ment, etc.women and men as equal partners
linear negativedecreasefall from matriarchywomen fight back for lost empire
cyclicalno change orminor changesalways oppressed, but within  differentpatternspossibility for positive change, less oppressed in the future
staticno changedestined by sex and biologywomen will continue to be “second sex”

(1)        The first scenario would be the most preferable one. It views history as the path in which basic human rights are increasingly met, and those of women in particular. Women are entering and changing most public areas, even those who were for thousands of years reserved exclusively for man. This improvement, although it could come under minor backlashes, will continue throughout our future. Future will see women and man as equal partners, it will be realizing of the utopia in which people would be seen primarily as individuals and not in the terms of their belonging to certain gender, race, class, nation or religion.

(2) The second scenario is one of decline in which history is seen as the continuous lose from our real selves, from nature and Goddesses. The last 5, 000 years represent the continuous decline for women, their fall from matriarchy after they became the first slaves. Female deities, reflecting women’s culture and women’s power, universally accepted by humankind until the modern era of immediate pre-industrial societies are forever lost. But women should not accept this fall, they should appropriate the Amazon myth and exclude themselves from men, which would be the only way to liberate ourselves.

(3)        In the third scenario, the cycle is the most powerful metaphor. Women had been always oppressed, even in matriarchal societies, when the matriarchy purely ment that genealogy was feminine. Women’s oppression follows different patterns, it varies in different societies and different period of times, so that could give us some hope for the future. Even women will always be dominated by man, their oppression could be lessen by appropriate government or religious measures. It will also be influence by major societal changes in which the quality of life for all will be improved. The cycle promises temporary liberation, for the strong shall fall and the weak rise, but they too fill fall.

(4)        The fourth scenario is one in which changes are perceived to be minor. Women are destined by their sex and biology, and even if liberated from reproduction through technology, their physics would never allow them to gain equal status. Women’s minds are still, and will always be, in the hands of their bodies, and in that sense remaining ‘second citizens’ would be the just and only possible future.

            Depending on a person’s position different scenario would be chosen as a solution for the future. Within the feminist field, different solutions would be chosen from liberal or radical position. In the example of the scientific inquiry, while liberal feminists would see futures feminist research see as incorporating a better sample and a greater number of women researchers, radical feminist would not be satisfied if every aspect of our lives is not challenged and questioned. Certainly, the future will be different for different women, and that is something futures feminist research will have to deal with. Feminism is constantly testing, constantly destabilizing social relations, challenging social conditions. Just as in emancipatory futures, the goal is to constant recreate the future, recreate new visions, create new possibilities, never end up with a utopia, since as Ashis Nandy writes, “today’s utopia is tomorrow’s nightmare.”[37]

            However, for feminists, there are concrete goals that must be realized, the day to day life of girls and women (as well boys and men depend on it). Thus, to conclude, we (feminist, women, people) should hope that the future will see the realization of the first scenario. That would be of crucial importance for our common future, women’s future and the future of feminist research. As Sandra Harding points out “we will have a feminist science fully coherent with its epistemological strategies only when we have a feminist society”.[38] Futures feminist research will be shaped by its tradition and developments within feminism, science and society. Of course, since since the future is an open space, the real character of the futures feminist research is yet to be seen.

  Notes  

[1].         Ivana Milojević is an assistant at the University of Novi Sad, Serbia, currently on leave and living in Brisbane, Australia.  I would like to thank June Lennie and Sohail Inayatullah for providing me with research materials and editorial assistance.

[2].         For an analysis of the futurists field see, for example,

Roy Amara, “Searching for Definitions and Boundaries”, The Futurist, February 1981, pages 25-29; Roy Amara, “How to Tell Good Work from Bad”, The Futurist, April 1981, pages 63-71; Roy Amara, “Which Direction Now”, The Futurist, June 1981, pages 42-46; Richard A. Slaughter, “Towards a Critical Futurism”, three articles in the World Future Society Bulletin, in following issues July/August 1984 (pages 19-25), September/October 1984 (pages 11-16 and 17-21); Somporn Sangchai, Some Aspects of Futurism, (Honolulu, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Study, 1974); and Richard A. Slaughter, editor, “The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies”, special issue, Futures, April 1993, 25(3).

[3].         Sohail Inayatullah, “Epistemologies and Methods in Futures Studies” page 3 in Richard Slaughter, ed., The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies (Melbourne, Futures Study Centre, 1995).

[4].         Martha J. Garrett, “A Way Through the Maze: What futurists do and how they do it”, Futures, April 1993, 25(3), page 271

[5].         Roy Amara, “Searching for Definitions and Boundaries”, The Futurist, February 1981, page 26.

[6].         However, some authors claim that since the feminism is a perspective and not a research method, feminist scan use a multiplicity of research methods and they, in fact, do so. See, for example, Shulamit Reinharz, Feminist Methods in Social Research, (New York, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1992), page 240. Her analysis on feminist use of different methods is as follows: “Some feminists argue that there is no special affinity between feminism and a particular research method. Other support interpretive, qualitative research methods; advocate positivist, ‘objective’ methods; or value combining the two. Some imply ‘use what works’, others ‘use what you know’, and others ‘use what will convince’.” (page 14)

[7].         For the relationship between utopias and ideology see Herbert Marcuse, “The End of Utopia”, and Karl Manhajm, “Ideology and Utopia”, in Miodrag Rankovic, Sociologija i futurologija (Sociology and Futurology), (Belgrade, Institut za socioloska istrazivanja Filozofskog fakulteta u Beogradu, 1995).

[8].         See, for example, Richard Slaughter, ed., The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies (Melbourne, Futures Study Centre, 1995).

[9].         A glance at membership directors and the gender distribution of articles published in futures journals and magazines quickly makes this point.

[10].       Patricia Huckle, “Feminism: A Catalyst for the Future”, in Jan Zimmerman, editor, The Technological Woman (Praeger, New York, 1983).

[11].       See, for example, Geofreey H. Fletcher, “Key Concepts in the Futures Perspective”, World Future Society Bulletin, January- February 1979, pages 25-31; Roy Amara, “Searching for Definitions and Boundaries”, The Futurist, February 1981, page 25; Richard A. Slaughter, Futures: Tools and Techniques, (Melbourne, Futures Study Centre, 1995).

[12].       See, Susan Downie, Baby Making: The Technology and Ethics (London, The Bodley Head, 1988).

[13].       Bonnie Spanier, IM/Partial Science: Gender Ideology in Molecular Biology (Bloomington, Indiana University Press, 1995).

[14].       Eleonora Masini, Women as Builders of Alternative Futures. Report Number 11, Centre for European Studies, Universitat Trier, 1993.  

[15]. Richard Slaughter, “Towards a Critical Futurism”, World Future Society Bulletin, September/October 1984, pg 13.

[16]. Ibid, July/August 1984, page 19.

[17].  Feminist literature used for the article (besides books and articles already mentioned in other footnotes): Helen Roberts, ed., Doing Feminist Research, (London and New York, Routledge, 1990); Joyce McCarl Nielsen, ed., Feminist Research Methods: Exemplary Readings in the Social Sciences, (Boulder, San Francisco, & London, 1990); Ruth Bleir, ed., Feminist Approaches to Science, (Pergamon Press, 1988); Pamela Abbott and Claire Wallace, An Introduction to Sociology: Feminist Perspectives, (London and New York, Routledge, 1992), particularly chapter 1 (Introduction: the feminist critique of malestream sociology and the way forward) and 9 (The production of feminist knowledge); Zarana Papic, Sociologija i feminizam,(Sociology and Feminism) (IIC SSOS, Belgrade 1989), Jane Butler Kahle, ed., Women in Science,  (Philadelphia and London, The Falmer Press, 1985); Margaret Alic, Hypatia’s Heritage: A History of Women in Science from Antiquity to the Late Nineteenth Century, (London, The Women’s Press, 1990); Cheris Kramarae and Paula A. Treichler, A Feminist Dictionary, (London, Pandora, 1989); Maggie Humm, The Dictionary of Feminist Theory, (London, Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1989).

[18].       Judith A. Cook and Mary Margaret Fonow, “Knowledge and Women’s Interests: Issues of Epistemology and Methodology in Feminist Sociological Research:, in Joyce McCarl Nielsen, editor, Feminist Research Methods, (London, Westview Press, 1990).

[19].       Margrit Eichler, “And the Work Never Ends: Feminist Contributions”,  Canadian Review of Sociology and Anthropology, 22, 1985, pages 619-644, from Liz Stanley, editor, Feminist Praxis: Research, Theory and Epistemology in Feminist Sociology, (London, Routledge, 1990).

[20].       Magrit Eichler, Non-Sexist Research Methods, (London, Allen and Unwin, 1988), from Pamela Abbott and Claire Wallace, An introduction to sociology: feminist perspectives, (London, Routledge, 1992) pages 208-209.

[21]. Kathy E. Ferguson, The Man Question: Visions of Subjectivity in Feminist Theory, (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1993).

[22].       Aminata Traore, “The South: A Joint Struggle”, in The Unesco Courier, September 1995, pages 9 and 11.

[23].       Christopher Dickey, “The Islamic World: Bride, Slave or Warrior”, in Newsweek, September 12, 1994, pages 13-17.

[24].       Zillah R. Eisenstein, The Radical Future of Liberal Feminism (Boston, USA, Northeastern University Press, 1993), page 3.

[25]. Ibid.

[26].       Linda Nicholson, ‘Feminism and the Politics of Postmodernism’, in Margaret Ferguson and Jennifer Wicke, Feminism and Postmodernism, (Durhan and London, Duke University Press, 1994), pages 69-86.

[27].       Patti Lather, Getting Smart, Feminist Research and Pedagogy with/in the Postmodern, (New York, London, Routledge, 1991), page 27.

[28].       Linda Nicholson, ibid., page 76

[29]. Ibid. page 85.

[30]. Fox-Genovese, quoted in Patti Lather, Ibid. page 28.

[31].       Mary Daly, Gyn\Ecology, The Metaethics of Radical Feminism, (Boston, Beacon, 1978, page 1), quote from Zillah R. Eisenstein, The Radical Future of Liberal Feminism (Boston, Northeastern University Press, 1993), page 18.

[32].       Eleonora Masini and Yogesh Atal, eds., The Futures of Asian Cultures, Bangkok, UNESCO, 1993, and Eleonora Masini and Albert Sasson, eds., The Futures of Cultures, Paris, UNESCO 1994.

[33].       Ann Curthoys, “The Three Body Problem: Feminism and Chaos Theory”, Hecate, 17(1), 1991, pages 14-21.

[34].       Donna Haraway, Simians, Cyborgs, and Women: The Reinvention of Nature (New York, Routledge, 1991).

[35].       Anne Applebaum, “The Perils (yawn) of poor Naomi”, The Courier-Mail, Brisbane, Australia, October 18, 1995, page 15

[36].       Riane Eisler, “A Time for Partnership”, in The UNESCO Courier, September 1995, pages 5-7.

[37].       Ashis Nandy, Tyranny, Utopias and Traditions (Delhi, Oxford, 1987) page 13.

[38].       Sandra Harding, The Science Question in Feminism, (Milton Keynes, England, Open University Press, 1986), page 141.

Sarkar’s Theory of Social Change:

Structure and Transcendence

Personal History
Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar was born in May of 1921 in Bihar of an old and respected family that had its roots in regional leadership and in ancient spiritual traditions.  Sarkar’s early life was dominated by fantastic events, spiritual miracles and brushes with death.  He was nearly killed in his early years by a religious sect who believed that Sarkar was destined to destroy their religion (as astrologers had predicted about Sarkar).  Surviving this event and many other similar ones, by the 1950’s he had become a spiritualist with many followers.  In 1955, he founded the socio-spiritual organization Ananda Marga.   Soon after, he articulated a new political-economic theory and social movement called the Progressive Utilization Theory or PROUT.  

Ananda Marga and PROUT grew quickly in the 1960’s and managed to attract opposition from numerous Hindu groups, they believing Sarkar to be an iconoclast because of his opposition to caste (jhat) and his criticism of orthodox schools of Indian philosophy. By the late 1960’s his followers were in key positions in the Indian civil service.  The government argued that it was a politically subversive revolutionary organization and banned civil servants from joining it.  Ananda Marga asserted that it was being harassed because of its opposition to governmental corruption.  

In 1971, Sarkar was accused of murdering his disciples and jailed. Before Sarkar’s eyes his movement was decimated and publically labelled as a terrorist organization.  In 1975 with the onset of the Indian Emergency his organizations were banned and his trial conducted in an atmosphere where defense witnesses were jailed if they spoke for Sarkar. Notwithstanding reports by the International Commission of Jurists and other associations of the partial judicial conditions making it impossible for Sarkar to receive a fair trial, Sarkar was convicted.1  When the Gandhi government was removed, his case was appealed and reversed.  During those difficult years, Sarkar fasted in protest of the trial and the numerous tortures committed by the police and intelligence agencies on his workers and himself.  By the 1980’s his movement grew again expanding to nearly 120 nations.   

Until his death on October 21, 1990 Sarkar remained active in Calcutta composing nearly 5000 songs called Prabhat Samgiit (songs of the new dawn), giving spiritual talks, giving discourses on languages, managing his organizations, and teaching meditation to his numerous disciples, especially his senior monks and nuns, avadhutas and avadhutikas. His most recent project was Ananda Nagar or the City of Bliss and other alternative communities throughout the world.  These communities have been designed with PROUT principles in mind: ecologically conscious, spiritually aware, socially progressive and embedded in the culture of the area.  

THE PERSONAL AND SOCIAL  

Sarkar places the rise, fall and rise of his movement in the same language that he uses to explain aspects of history.  For him, whenever truth is stated in spiritual or material areas of life, there is resistance.  This resistance eventually is destroyed by the very forces it uses to destroy truth.  “Remember, by an unalterable decree of history, the evil forces are destined to meet their doomsday.”2  

For Sarkar movements follow a dialectical path: thesis, antithesis and synthesis.  A movement is born, it is suppressed and oppressed (if it truly challenges the distribution of meanings of power), and if it survives these challenges it will be victorious.  The strength of the movement can be measured by its ability to withstand these challenges.  

Sarkar’s own life and the life of his organizations follow this pattern, although at this point the success of the PROUT movement has yet to be determined.  In our interpretation, it is this mythic language that is also perhaps the best way to understand his theory of history, for it is myth that gives meaning to reality, that makes understandable the moments and monuments of our daily lives and that gives a call to sacrifice the moment so as to create a better tomorrow.  

Sarkar’s universe is the habitat of grand struggles between vidya and avidya: introversion and extroversion, contraction and expansion, compassion and passion.  This duality is an eternal part of the very metaphysic of the physical and social universe.  Unlike the Western model where social history can end with the perfect marketplace or the conflict-free communist state, for the Indian, for Sarkar, social history will always continue.  Only for the individual through spiritual enlightenment can time cease and the “mind” itself (and thus duality) be transcended.   

SARKAR’S LARGER CIVILIZATIONAL PROJECT  

Sarkar’s intent was and is (his organizations continue his work) to create a global spiritual socialist revolution, a renaissance in thought, language, music, art, and culture.  His goal is to infuse individuals with a spiritual presence, the necessary first step in changing the way that we know and order our world.  Unlike the socialists of the past who merely sought to capture state power–forgetting that the economy was global and thus in the long run strengthening the world capitalist system–or the utopian idealists who merely wished for perfect places that could not practically exist or spiritualists who only sought individual transformation at the expense of structural change, Sarkar has a far more comprehensive view of transformation of which his social cycle provides the key structure.  

His theoretical offerings include a range of new approaches to understanding social reality.  His theory of neo-humanism aims to relocate the self from ego (and the pursuit of individual maximization), from family (and the pride of genealogy), from geo-sentiments (attachments to land and nation), from socio-sentiments (attachments to class, race and community) from humanism (man as the center of the universe) to neo-humanism (love and devotion for all, inanimate and animate, beings of the universe).  Paramount here is the construction of self in an ecology of reverence for life, not a modern/secular politics of cynicism.  Spiritual devotion to the universe is ultimately the greatest treasure that humans have; it is this treasure that must be excavated and shared by all living beings.  

Only from this basis can a new universalism emerge which can challenge the national, religious, class sentiments of history. The first step, then, is liberating the intellect from its own boundaries and placing it in an alternative discourse.  Sarkar then seeks to make accessible an alternative way of knowing the world that includes yet steps beyond traditional knowledge points; reason, sense-inference, authority, and intuition.  

The central framework for his neo-humanistic perspective is his Progressive Utilization Theory.  PROUT encompasses Sarkar’s theory of history and change, his theory of leadership and the vanguard of the new world he envisions, as well as his alternative political economy.  

THEORY OF HISTORY  

His theory of history constructs four classes: workers, warriors, intellectuals, and accumulators of capital.  Each class can be perceived not merely as a power configuration, but as a way of knowing the world, as a paradigm, episteme or deep structure, if you will.  In Sarkar’s language this is collective psychology or varna (here, dramatically reinterpreting caste). At the individuals level there is varna mobility, one can change the influence of history and social environment!  At the macro level, each varna comes into power bringing in positive necessary changes, but over time exploits and then dialectically creates the conditions for the next varna.  This cycle continues through history and for Sarkar is indeed an iron law of history, true irrespective of space/time and observer conditions.  It is a law because it has developed historically through evolution and because the cycle represents a universal social structure.  For Sarkar, there have been four historical ways humans have dealt with their physical and social environment:  either by being dominated by it, by dominating it through the body, dominating it through the mind, or dominating it through the environment itself.   

While the parallel to caste is there (shudra, ksattriya, brahmin and vaeshya), Sarkar redefines them locating the four as broader social categories that have historically evolved through interaction with the environment. Moreover, varna for individuals is fluid, one can change one’s varna through education, for example. Caste, on the other hand, developed with the conquest of the local Indians by the Aryans and was later reinscribed by the Vedic priestly classes.3  

Sarkar believes that while the social cycle must always move through these four classes, it is possible to accelerate the stages of history and remove the periods of exploitation.  Thus Sarkar would place the sadvipra, the compassionate servant leader, at the center of the cycle, at the center of society (not necessarily at the center of government).  In his life, Sarkar’s efforts were to create this type of leadership instead of building large bureaucratic organizations. He sought to create a new type of leadership that was humble and could serve, that was courageous and could protect, that was insightful and could learn and teach, and that was innovative and could use wealth–in a word, the sadvipra.  

These leaders would, in effect, attempt to create a permanent revolution of sorts, creating a workers’ revolution when the capitalists begin to move from innovation to commodification, a warriors’ revolution when the workers’ era moves from societal transformation to political anarchy, an intellectual revolution when the warrior era expands too far–becomes overly centralized and stagnates culturally–and an economic revolution when the intellectuals use their normative power to create a universe where knowledge is only available to the select few, favoring non-material production at the expense of material production.  Through the intervention of the sadvipra, Sarkar’s social cycle becomes a spiral: the cycles of the stages remains but one era is transformed into its antithesis when exploitation increases. This leads to the new synthesis and the possibility of social progress within the structural confines of the four basic classes.  Sarkar’s theory allows for a future that while patterned can still dramatically change. For Sarkar, there are long periods of rest and then periods of dramatic social and biological revolution.  Future events such as the coming polar shift, the possible ice age, increased spiritual developments in humans due to various spiritual practices, and the social-economic revolution he envisions may create the possibility for a jump in human consciousness.4   

Sarkar’s theoretical framework is not only spiritual or only concerned with the material world, rather his perspective argues that the real is physical, mental and spiritual.  Concomitantly, the motives for historical change are struggle with the environment (the move from the worker era to the warrior era), struggle with ideas (the move from the warrior to the intellectual), struggle with the environment and ideas (the move from the intellectual era to the capitalist eras) and the spiritual attraction of the Great, the call of the infinite.  Thus physical, mental and spiritual challenges create change.   

Table: Sarkar’s Stages  

Shudra                  Worker                     Dominated by Environment     

Ksattriya               Warrior                     Struggle with and dominates Environment        

Vipra                    Intellectual                 Struggle with and dominates Ideas         

Vaeshya               Capitalist                   Struggle with and dominates Environment/Ideas   

The key to Sarkar’s theory of history, thus, is that there are four structures and four epochs in history.  Each epoch exhibits a certain mentality, a varna.  This varna is similar to the concept of episteme, to paradigm, to ideal type, to class, to stage, to era and a host of other words that have been used to describe stage theory.  Sarkar, himself, alternatively uses varna and collective psychology to describe his basic concept.  Collective psychology reflects group desire, social desire.  There are four basic desire systems.  The four varnas are historically developed.  First the shudra, then the ksattriya, then the vipra, then the vaeshya.  The last era is followed either by a revolution by the shudras or an evolution into the shudra era.   

The order is cyclical, but there are reversals.  A counter evolutionary movement or a more dramatic counter revolution which may throw an era backwards, such as a military ksattriyan leaders wresting power from a vipran-led government.  Both are short-lived in terms of the natural cycle since both move counter to the natural developmental flow.  But in the long run, the order must be followed.  

Significantly–and this is important in terms of developing an exemplary theory of macrohistory–Sarkar does not resort to external variables to explain the transition into the next era.  It is not new technologies that create a new wealthy elite that can control the vipras, rather it is a fault within the viprans themselves.  Moreover, it is not that they did not meet a new challenge, or respond appropriately, as Toynbee would argue.  Rather, Sarkar’s reasoning is closer to Ibn Khaldun’s and other classical philosophers.  They create a privileged ideological world or conquer a material world, use this expansion to take care of their needs, but when changes come, they are unprepared for they themselves have degenerated.  While changes are often technological (new inventions and discoveries of new resources) it is not the significant variable, rather it is the mindset of the vipran, individually and as a class, that leads to their downfall.  

ALTERNATIVE POLITICAL-ECONOMY  

Embedded in his social theory is Sarkar’s alternative political economy.  In this project he designs his ideal theory of value.  For Sarkar there are physical, intellectual and spiritual resources.  Most economic theory privileges the material forgetting the intellectual and especially the infinite spiritual resources available to us.  Secondly, his theory uses as its axial principle the notion of social justice, the notion of actions not for selfish pleasure but for the social good.   

Society is perceived not as an aggregate of self-contained individuals nor as a mass collectivity designed for the commune, but rather as a family moving together on a journey through social time and space.  Within the family model there is hierarchy and there is unity.  Newly created wealth is used to give incentives to those who are actualizing their self, either through physical, intellectual or spiritual labor, and is used to maintain and increase basic needs–food, clothing, housing, education and medical care.  Employment, while guaranteed, still requires effort, since central to Sarkar’s metaphysics is that struggle is the essence of life.  It is challenge that propels humans, collectively and individually, towards new levels of physical wealth, intellectual understanding and spiritual realization.  Sarkar speaks of incentives not in terms of cash, but in terms of resources that can lead to more wealth.   

Finally, Sarkar would place limits on personal income and land holdings for the world physical resources are limited and the universe cannot be owned by any individual since it is nested in a higher consciousness, the Supreme Consciousness.  

THE INDIAN EPISTEME AND THE INDIAN CONSTRUCTION OF HISTORY  

Following the classic Indian episteme, reality has many levels; most ideologies only have accentuated the spiritual (Vedanta) or the material (liberalism), or the individual (capitalism) or the collective (communism), the community (Gandhism), or race (Hitlerism) or the nation (fascism).  Sarkar seeks an alternative balance of self, community, ecology, and globe.  Yet the spiritual is his base.  In his view Consciousness from pure existence transforms to awareness then to succeeding material factors (the Big Bang onwards) until it becomes matter.  From matter, there is dialectical evolution to humans.  Humans, finally, can devolve back to the inanimate or evolve as co-creators with consciousness.  For humans, there is structure and choice, nature and will. There is both creation and there is evolution.  With this epistemic background, we should then not be surprised at his dual interests in the material and spiritual worlds and their dynamic balance.  

Placing Sarkar in an alternative construction of the real is central to understanding his social theory.  Every macrohistorian and thinker who creates a new discourse evokes the universal and the transcendental, but their grand efforts also spring from the dust and the mud of the mundane.  They are born in particular places and they die in locatable sites as well.  Sarkar writes from India, writes from the poverty that is Calcutta.  The centrality of the cycle then can partially be understood by its physical location.  The cycle promises a better future ahead; it promises that the powerful will be made weak and the weak powerful, the rich will be humbled and the poor enabled.  The cycle also comes directly from the classic Indian episteme.  In this ordering of knowledge, the real has many levels and is thus pluralistic; the inner mental world is isomorphic with the external material world, there are numerous ways of knowing the real, and time is grand.  According to Romila Thapar, “Hindu thinkers had evolved a cyclic theory of time.  The cycle was called the kalpa and was equivalent to 4320 million earthly years.  The kalpa is divided into 14 periods and at the end of each of these the universe is recreated and once again Manu (primeval man) gives birth to the human race.”5  

In this classical model (ascribed to the Gita) the universe is created, it degenerates, and then is recreated.  The pattern is eternal.  This pattern has clear phases; the golden era of Krta or Satya, the silver era of Treta, the copper era of Dvapara and the iron age of Kali.  At the end of Kali, however, the great redeemer whether Vishnu or Shiva or Krishna, is reborn, the universe is realigned, dharma or truth is restored, and the cycle begins again.   

Now is there a way out?  An escape from the cycle? Classically it has been through an alchemical ontological transformation of the self: the self realizing its real nature and thus achieving timelessness–the archetype of the yogi.  Concretely, in social reality this has meant the transformation of a person engrossed in fear to a mental state where nothing is feared, neither king nor priest; all are embraced, lust and greed are transcended and individual inner peace is achieved.  To this archetype, Sarkar has added a collective level asserting that individual liberation must exist in parallel and in the context of social liberation.  Spirituality is impossible in the context of the social body suffering in pain.  For him the world has a 6  defective social order…. this state of affairs cannot be allowed to continue.  This structure of inequality and injustice must be destroyed and powdered down for the collective interest of the human beings.  Then and then alone, humans may be able to lead the society on the past of virtue.  Without that only a handful of persons can possibly attain the Supreme Perfection. 

But Sarkar too uses the redeemer concept to provide the way out of cyclical history.  This is his taraka brahma.  The first was Shiva who transformed the chaos of primitive life to the orderliness of humanity. Next was Krishna who restored the notion of national community.  And, for Sarkar, another redeemer is needed to transform the fragmented nation-states into a world community.  However, paradoxically the concept of the redeemer for Sarkar is  also metaphorical: it is meant to elicit devotion by making the impersonal nature of Consciousness touchable in the form of a personal guru.  

Sarkar thus develops ways out of the cycle: individual and social. In contrast Orientalist interpreters like Mircea Eliade believe that the theory of eternal cycles is “invigorating and consoling for man under the terror of history,”as now man knows under which eras he must suffer and he knows that the only escape is spiritual salvation. Sarkar finds this view repugnant, for people suffer differently and differentially in each era, those at the center of power do better than those at the outskirts, laborers always do poorly.  Indeed throughout history different classes do better than other classes, but the elite manage quite well.8   

Oftentimes, some people have lagged behind, exhausted and collapsed on the ground, their hands and knees bruised and their clothes stained with mud.  Such people have been thrown aside with hatred and have become the outcastes of society.  They have been forced to remain isolated from the mainstream of social life.  This is the kind of treatment they have received.  Few have cared enough to lift up those who lagged behind, to help them forward.  

Hope lies not in resignation to but transformation of the cycle–it is here that Sarkar moves away from the classic Hindu model of the real–of caste, fatalism, and mentalism–most likely influenced by fraternal Islamic concepts, liberal notions of individual will, and by Marxist notions of class struggle.   

For Sarkar there are different types of time.  There is cosmic time –the degeneration and regeneration of dharma; there is individual liberation from time through entrance into infinite time; and there is the social level of time wherein the times of exploitation are reduced through social transformation, thus creating a time of dynamic balance–a balance between the physical, social and spiritual.   

This differs significantly from other views of Indian history. In the Idealistic view history is but the play or sport of Consciousness.9  In this view the individual has no agency and suffering is an illusion.  In the dynastic view history is but the succeeding rise and falls of dynasties and kings and queens; it is only the grand that have agency.  In contrast is Aurobindo’s10 interpretation, influenced by Hegel, in which instrumentality is assigned to historical world leaders and to nations.  For Sarkar, making nationalism into a spiritual necessity is an unnecessary reading.  God does not prefer any particular structure over another.  

Following Aurobindo, Buddha Prakash has taken the classic Hindu stages of gold, silver, copper and iron and applied them concretely to modern history.  India, for Prakash, with nation-hood and industrialism has now wakened to a golden age that “reveals the jazz and buzz of a new age of activity.”11  But for Sarkar, the present is not an age of awakening, but an age “where on the basis of various arguments a handful of parasites have gorged themselves on the blood of millions of people, while countless people have been reduced to living skeletons.”12  

Sarkar also rejects the modern linear view of history in which history is divided into ancient (Hindu), medieval (Muslim), and modern (British-nationalistic).  In this view, England is modern and India is backward.  If only India can adopt rational, secular and capitalist or socialist perspectives and institutions, that is, modern policies, it too can join the western world.  India then has to move from prehistorical society–people lost in spiritual fantasy and caste but without state–to modern society.13  Sarkar’s views are closer to Jawaharlal Nehru14 who thought that history is about how humanity overcame challenges and struggled against the elements and inequity.  Sarkar’s views are also similar to the recent “Subaltern”15 project in which the aim is to write history from the view of the dominated classes, not the elite or the colonial. However, unlike the Subaltern project which eschews meta-narratives, Sarkar’s social cycle provides a new grand theory.  

SARKAR’S HISTORIOGRAPHY  

Sarkar’s stages can be used to contextualize Indian history.16  Just as there are four types of mentalities, structures or types, we can construct four types of history.  There is the shudra history, the project of the Subaltern group.  However, their history is not written by the workers themselves but clearly by intellectuals.  There is then ksattriyan history; the history of kings and empires, of nations and conquests, of politics and economics.  This is the history of the State, of great men and women. Most history is vipran history, for most history is written and told by intellectuals, whatever their claims for the groups they represent.  Vipran history is also the philosophy of history: the development of typologies, of categories of thought, of the recital of genealogies, of the search for evidence, of the development of the field of history itself.  This is the attempt to undo the intellectual constructions of others and create one’s own, of asking is there one construction or can there be many constructions? Finally, there is vaeshyan history.  This is the history of wealth, of economic cycles, of the development of the world capitalist system, of the rise of Europe and the fall of India.  Marxist history is unique in that it is written by intellectuals for workers but used by warriors to gain power over merchants.  Sarkar attempts to write a history that includes all four types of power: people’s, military, intellectual and economic.   

For Sarkar, most history is written to validate a particular mentality. Each varna writes a history to glorify its conquests, its philosophical realizations, or its technological breakthroughs, but rarely is history written around the common woman or man. For Sarkar, history should be written about how humans solved challenges.  How prosperity was gained.  “History… should maintain special records of the trials and tribulations which confronted human beings, how those trials and tribulations were overcome, how human beings tackled the numerous obstacles to effect great social development.”17  History then needs to aid in mobilizing people, personally and collectively toward internal exploration and external transformation.  Thus history should be a “resplendent reflection of collective life whose study will be of immense inspiration for future generations.”18 History then is a political asset.  Here Sarkar moves to a poststructural understanding of the true.  Truth is interpretive, not rta (the facts) but satya (that truth which leads to human welfare).  History then should not be placed solely within the empiricist view, but within an interpretive political perspective.  

Sarkar’s own history is meant to show the challenges humans faced: the defeats and the victories.  His history shows how humans were dominated by particular eras, how they struggled and developed new technologies, ideas, and how they realized the atman, the, the eternal self.  It is an attempt to write a history that is true to the victims but does not oppress them again by providing no escape from history, no vision of the future.  His history then is clearly ideological, not in the sense of supporting a particular class, but rather a history that gives weight to all classes yet attempts to move them outside of class, outside of ego and toward neo-humanism.   

CONCLUSION  

History then is the natural evolutionary flow of this cycle.  At every point there are a range of choices; once made the choice becomes a habit, a structure of the collective or group mind.  Each mentality, with an associated leadership class comes into power, makes changes, and administers government but eventually pursues its own class ends and exploits the other groups.  This has continued throughout history.   Sarkar’s unit of analysis begins with all of humanity, it is a history of humanity, but he often refers to countries and nations. The relationship to the previous era is a dialectical one; an era emerges out of the old era. History moves not because of external reasons, although the environment certainly is a factor, but because of internal organic reasons.  Each era gains power–military, normative, economic or chaotic–and then accumulates power until the next group dislodges the previous elite.  The metaphysic behind this movement is, for Sarkar, the wave motion.  There is a rise and then a fall.  In addition, this wave motion is pulsative, that is, the speed of change fluctuates over time.  The driving force for this change is first the dialectical interaction with the environment, second the dialectical interaction in the mind and in ideologies, and third the dialectical interaction between both, ideas and the environment.  But there is also another motivation: this is the attraction toward the Great. The individual attraction toward the Supreme.  This is the ultimate desire that frees humans of all desires.  

While clash, conflict and cohesion with the natural and social environment drives the cycle, it is the attraction to the Great, the infinite, that is the solution or the answer to the problem of history.  It results in progress.  For Sarkar, the cycle must continue, for it is a basic structure in mind, but exploitation is not a necessity.   Through the sadvipra, exploitation can be minimized.  

To conclude, Sarkar’s theory uses the metaphor of the human life cycle and the ancient wheel, that is, technology.  There is the natural and there is human intervention.  There is a structure and there is choice.  It is Sarkar’s theory that provides this intervention; an intervention that for Sarkar will lead to humanity as a whole finally taking its first deep breath of fresh air.  

NOTES  

1.         See Vimala Schneider, The Politics of Prejudice. Denver, Ananda Marga Publications, 1983.  Also see, Tim Anderson, Free Alister, Dunn and Anderson. Sidney, Wild and Wolley, 1985. And, Anandamitra Avadhutika, Tales of Torture. Hong Kong, Ananda Marga Publications, 1981.  

2.         Ananda Marga, Ananda Vaniis. Bangkok, Ananda Marga Publications, 1982.  

3.         For various interpretations of caste in Indian history and politics, see Nicholas Dirks, The Hollow Crown. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1987; Rajni Kothari, Caste in Indian Politics. New Delhi, Orient Longman, 1970; Louis Dumont, Homo Hierarchicus.  Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1979; and, Romila Thapar, A History of India. Baltimore, Penguin Books, 1966.  

4.         See Richard Gauthier, “The Greenhouse Effect, Ice Ages and Evolution,” New Renaissance (Vol. 1, No. 3, 1990).  

5.         Romila Thapar, A History of India, 161.  

6.         P. R. Sarkar, Supreme Expression. Vol. II. Netherlands, Nirvikalpa Press, 1978, 16.  

7.         Mircea Eliade, The Myth of the Eternal Return. New Jersey, Princeton University Press, 1971, 118.  

8.         P. R. Sarkar,  The Liberation of Intellect–Neo Humanism. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1983.  

9.         Sarvepalli Radhakrishnan, “History: An Idealist’s View.”  K. Satchidananda Murti, ed. Readings. See  K. Satchidananda Murti, “History: A Theist’s View.” K. Satchidananda Murti, ed. Readings.  

10.       Sri Aurobindo,  “The Spirituality and Symmetric Character of Indian Culture,” and “The Triune Reality,” K. Satchidananda Murty, ed. Readings in Indian History, Philosophy and Politics. London. George Allen and Unwin, 1967, p. 361. Also see Vishwanath Prasad Varma. Studies in Hindu Political Thought and its Metaphysical Foundations. Delhi, Motilal Banarsidass, 1974.  

11.       See Buddha Prakash, “The Hindu Philosophy of History.” Journal of the History of Ideas (Vol. 16, No. 4, 1958).  

12.       Shrii Anandamurti, Namah Shivaya Shantaya. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1982, 165.  

13.       See Ronald Inden, “Orientalist Constructions of India.” Modern Asian Studies (Vol. 20, No. 3, 1986). See also Edward Said, Orientalism. New York, Vintage Books, 1979.  And, Ashis Nandy, Traditions, Tyranny and Utopias. New Delhi, Oxford University Press, 1987.  

14.       Jawaharlal Nehru, “History: A Scientific Humanist’s View.” K. Satchidananda Murti, ed. Readings.  

15.       Ranajit Guha and Gayatri Chakravorty Spivak, Selected Subaltern Studies. New York, Oxford University Press, 1988.  See also D.D. Kosambit, “A Marxist Interpretation of Indian History.” K. Satchidananda Murty, ed. Readings, 40.  

16.       See also Sabyasachi Bhattacharya and Romila Thapar, eds. Situating Indian History. Delhi, Oxford University Press, 1986.  

17.       P. R. Sarkar. A Few Problems Solved. Vol. 4. trans. Acarya Vijayananda Avadhuta. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1987, 64.  

18.       ibid, 66.

CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS: Poststructuralism as method

Causal layered analysis is offered as a new futures research method. It utilityis not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldview and myth/metaphor. The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing. © 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

In the context of using poststructuralism as a research method, this article introduces a new futures research method—causal layered analysis (CLA). Causal layered analysis is concerned less with predicting a particular future and more with opening up the present and past to create alternative futures. It focuses less on the horizontal spatiality of futures—in contrast to techniques such as emerging issues analysis, scenarios and backcasting—and more on the vertical dimension of futures studies, of layers of analysis. Causal layered analysis opens up space for the articulation of constitutive discourses, which can then be shaped as scenarios. Rick Slaughter considers it a paradigmatic method that reveals deep worldview committments behind surface phenomena.1 Writes Slaughter, ‘Causal layered analysis… provides a richer account of what is being studied than the more common empiricist or predictive orientation which merely ’skims the surface’. But because mastery of the different layers calls for critical and hermeneutic skills that originate in the humanities, some futures practitioners may find the method challenging at first.2

This article hopes to reduce the difficulties involved in understanding and using causal layered analysis by providing a methodological perspective to the context of critical futures research, namely, poststructuralism.

Causal layered analysis has been successfully used in a variety of workshops and futures courses in the last six years. It is especially useful in workshops with individuals either of different cultures or different approaches to solving problems. It is best used prior to scenario building as it allows a vertical space for scenarios of different categories. Some of the benefits of CLA are:

  1. Expands the range and richness of scenarios;
  2. When used in a workshop setting, it leads to the inclusion of different ways of knowingamong participants;
  3. Appeals to and can be used by a wider range of individuals as it incorporates nontextual and poetic/artistic expression in the futures process.
  4. Layers participant’s positions (conflicting and harmonious ones);
  5. Moves the debate/discussion beyond the superficial and obvious to the deeper andmarginal;
  6. Allows for a range of transformative actions;
  7. Leads to policy actions that can be informed by alternative layers of analysis;
  8. Reinstates the vertical in social analysis, ie from postmodern relativism to global ethics.

Causal layered analysis can be seen as an effort to use poststructuralism, not just as an epistemological framework—as developed by thinkers such as Michel Foucault—but as a research method, as a way to conduct inquiry into the nature of past, present and future.

Types of futures research

In earlier articles, among other mapping schemes,3 I have divided futures studies into three overlapping research dimensions: empirical, interpretive and critical.4 Each dimension has different assumptions about the nature of reality, truth, the universe, the future and about the role of the subject.5 My own preference has been approaches that use all three—that contextualize data (the predictive) with the meanings (interpretive) we give them, and then locate these in various historical structures of power/knowledge-class, gender, varna6 and episteme (the critical).

Causal layered analysis is well situated in critical futures research.7 This tradition is less concerned with disinterest, as in the empirical, or with creating mutual understanding, as in the interpretive, but with creating distance from current categories. This distance allows us to see current social practices as fragile, as particular, and not as universal categories of thought—they are seen as discourse, a term similar to paradigm but inclusive of epistemological assumptions.

In the poststructural critical approach, the task is not prediction or comparison (as in the interpretive) but one of making units of analysis problematic. The task is not so much to better define the future but rather, at some level, to ‘undefine’ the future. For example, of importance are not population forecasts but how the category of ‘population’ has become historical valorised in discourse; for example, why population instead of community or people, we might ask?

Taking a broader political view, we can also query why population is being predicted anyway? Why are population growth rates more important than levels of consumption? The role of the state and other forms of power such as religious institutions in creating authoritative discourses—in naturalizing certain questions and leaving unproblematic others—is central to understanding how a particular future has become hegemonic. But more than forms of power, are epistemes or structures of knowledge which frame what is knowable and what is not, which define and bind intelligibility. Thus, while structures and institutions such as the modern state are useful tools for analysis, they are seen not as universal but as particular to history, civilization and episteme (the knowledge boundaries that frame our knowing). They too are situated.

The poststructural approach attempts to make problematic trend or events or events given to us in the futures literature and not only to discern their class basis as in conventional neo-Marxian critical research. The issue is not only what are other events/trends that could have been put forth, but how an issue has been constructed as an event or trend in the first place as well as the ‘cost’ of that particular social construction—what paradigm is privileged by the nomination of a trend or event as such.

Using other ways of knowing, particularly categories of knowledge from other civilizations, is one of the most useful ways to create a distance from the present. For example, in our population example, we can query ‘civilization’, asking how do Confucian, Islamic, Pacific or Indic civilizations constitute the population discourse? Scenarios about the future of population become far more problematic since the underlying category of the scenario, in this case population, is contested. At issue is how enumeration—the counting of people—has affected people’s conception of time and relations with self, other and state.8

The goal of critical research is thus to disturb present power relations through making problematic our categories and evoking other places or scenarios of the future. Through this historical, future and civilizational distance, the present becomes less rigid, indeed, it becomes remarkable. This allows the spaces of reality to loosen and the new possibilities, ideas and structures, to emerge. The issue is less what is the truth but how truth functions in particular policy settings, how truth is evoked, who evokes it, how it circulates, and who gains and loses by particular nominations of what is true, real and significant.

In this approach, language is not symbolic but constitutive of reality. This is quite different from the empirical domain wherein language is seen as transparent, merely in a neutral way describing reality, or as in the interpretive, where language is opaque, coloring reality in particular ways. By moving up and down levels of analysis, CLA brings in these different epistemological positions but sorts them out at different levels. The movement up and down is critical otherwise a causal layered analysis will remain only concerned with better categories and not wiser policies. By moving back up to the litany level from the deeper layers of discourse and metaphor, more holistic policies should ideally result.

Central to interpretive and critical approach is the notion of civilizational futures research. Civilizational research makes problematic current categories since they are often based on the dominant civilization (the West in this case). It informs us that behind the level of empirical reality is cultural reality and behind that is worldview.

While the postmodern/poststructural turn in the social sciences has been discussed exhaustively in many places,9 my effort is to simplify these complex social theories and see if poststructuralism can be used as a method, even if it is considered anti-method by strict ‘non-practitioners’.10

The poststructural futures toolbox

The first term in a poststructural futures toolbox is deconstruction. In this we take a text (here meaning anything that can be critiqued—a movie, a book, a worldview, a person— something or someone that can be read) and break apart its components, asking what is visible and what is invisible? Research questions that emerge from this perspective include:

Deconstruction

Who is privileged at the level of knowledge? Who gains at economic, social and other levels? Who is silenced? What is the politics of truth? In terms of futures studies, we ask: which future is privileged? Which assumptions of the future are made preferable?

The second concept is genealogy. This is history; not a continuous history of events and trends, but more a history of paradigms, if you will, of discerning which discourses have been hegemonic and how the term under study has travelled through these various discourses. Thus for Nietzche, it was not so much an issue of what is the moral, but a genealogy of the moral: how and when the moral becomes contentious and through which discourses.

Genealogy

Which discourses have been victorious in constituting the present? How have they travelled through history? What have been the points in which the issue has become present, important or contentious? What might be the genealogies of the future?

The third crucial term is distance. Again, this is to differentiate between the disinterest of empiricism and the mutuality of interpretative research. Distancing provides the theoretical link between poststructural thought and futures studies. Scenarios become not forecasts but images of the possible that critique the present, that make it remarkable, thus allowing other futures to emerge. Distancing can be accomplished by utopias as well— ‘perfect’, ‘no’, or far away places— other spaces.

Distance

Which scenarios make the present remarkable? Make it unfamiliar? Strange? Denaturalize it? Are these scenarios in historical space (the futures that could have been) or in present or future space?

The fourth term is ‘alternative pasts and futures’. While futures studies has focused only on alternative futures, within the poststructural critical framework, just as the future is problematic, so is the past. The past we see as truth is in fact the particular writing of history, often by the victors of history. The questions that flow from this perspective are as below:

Alternative pasts and futures

Which interpretation of past is valorized? What histories make the present problematic? Which vision of the future is used to maintain the present? Which explodes the unity of the present?

The last concept—reordering knowledge—brings a different dimension to the future and is similar to much of the work being done in civilizational futures research.11 Reordering knowledge is similar to deconstruction and genealogy in that it undoes particular categories, however, it focuses particularly on how certain categories such as ‘civilization’ or ‘stages in history’ order knowledge.

Reordering knowledge

How does the ordering of knowledge differ across civilization, gender and episteme? What or Who is othered? How does it denaturalize current orderings, making them peculiar instead of universal?

These five concepts are part of a poststructural futures toolbox. There is a strong link, of course, to other futures methods. Emerging issues analysis,12 for example, at one level predicts issues outside of conventional knowledge categories but it does so by disturbing conventional categories, by making them problematic; it reorders knowledge. For example, the notion of the ‘rights of robots’ forces us to rethink rights, seeing them not as universal but as historical and political, as hard fought political and conceptual battles. It also forces us to rethink intelligence and sentience—posing the question what is life? Thus, a futures method such as emerging issues analysis, conventionally used to identify trends and problems in their emergent phase, should not merely be seen as a predictive method; it can also be a critical one.

A civilizational perspective

From a civilizational perspective, it is crucial to explore the guiding metaphors and myths we use to envision the future. This perspective takes a step back from the actual future to the deeper assumptions about the future being discussed, specifically the ‘non-rational.’ For example, particular scenarios have specific assumptions about the nature of time, rationality and agency. Believing the future is like a roll of dice is quite different from the Arab saying of the future: ‘Trust in Allah but tie your camel’ which differs again from the American vision of the future as unbounded, full of choice and opportunity. For the Confucian, choice and opportunity exist in the context of family and ancestors and not merely as individual decisions.

In workshops on the future outside of the West, conventional metaphors such as a fork in the road, the future as seen through the rearview mirror, or travelling down a rocky stream, rarely make sense. Others from Asia and the Pacific see the future as a tree (organic with roots and with many choices), as a finely weaved carpet (with God as the weaver), as a coconut (hard on the outside, soft on the inside) or as being in a car with a blindfolded driver (loss of control).13

Deconstructing conventional metaphors and then articulating alternative metaphors becomes a powerful way to critique the present and create the possibility of alternative futures. Metaphors and myths not only reveal the deeper civilizational bases for particular futures but they move the creation/understanding of the future beyond rational/design efforts. They return the unconscious and the mythic to our discourses of the future—the dialectics of civilizational trauma and transcendence become episodes that give insight to past, present and future.14

Causal layered analysis includes this metaphorical dimension and links it with other levels of analysis. It takes as its starting point the assumption that there are different levels of reality and ways of knowing. Individuals, organizations and civilizations see the world from different vantage points—horizontal and vertical.

Causal layered analysis

Causal layered analysis is based on the assumption that the way in which one frames a problem changes the policy solution and the actors responsible for creating transformation. Using the works of Rick Slaughter, P.R. Sarkar and Oswald Spengler,15 I argue that futures studies should be seen as layered, as deep and shallow. Its textured richness cannot be reduced to empirical trends.

The first level is the ‘litany’—quantitative trends, problems, often exaggerated, often used for political purposes—(overpopulation, eg) usually presented by the news media. Events, issues and trends are not connected and appear discontinuous. The result is often either a feeling of helplessness (what can I do?) or apathy (nothing can be done!) or projected action (why don’t they, usually meaning the State, do something about it?). This is the conventional level of futures research which can readily create a politics of fear. This is the futurist as fearmonger who warns: ‘the end is near’. However by believing in the prophecy and acting appropriately, the end can be averted.16

The second level is concerned with social causes, including economic, cultural, political and historical factors (rising birthrates, lack of family planning, eg). Interpretation is given to quantitative data. This type of analysis is usually articulated by policy institutes and published as editorial pieces in newspapers or in not-quite academic journals. If one is fortunate then the precipitating action is sometimes analysed (population growth and advances in medicine/health, eg). This level excels at technical explanations as well as academic analysis. The role of the state and other actors and interests is often explored at this level.

The third deeper level is concerned with structure and the discourse/worldview that supports and legitimates it (population growth and civilizational perspectives of family; lack of women’s power; lack of social security; the population/consumption debate, eg.). The task is to find deeper social, linguistic, cultural structures that are actor-invariant (not dependent on who are the actors). Discerning deeper assumptions behind the issue is crucial here as are efforts to revision the problem. At this stage, one can explore how different discourses (the economic, the religious, the cultural, for example) do more than cause or mediate the issue but constitute it, how the discourse we use to understand is complicit in our framing of the issue. Based on the varied discourses, discrete alternative scenarios can be derived here. For example, a scenario of the future of population based on religious perspectives of population (‘go forth and multiply’) versus cultural scenario focused on how women’s groups imagine construct birthing and childraising as well as their roles in patriarchy and the world division of labor. These scenarios add a horizontal dimension to our layered analysis.

The fourth layer of analysis is at the level of metaphor or myth. These are the deep stories, the collective archetypes, the unconscious dimensions of the problem or the paradox (seeing population as non-statistical, as community, or seeing people as creative resources, e.g.). This level provides a gut/emotional level experience to the worldview under inquiry. The language used is less specific, more concerned with evoking visual images, with touching the heart instead of reading the head.

Causal layered analysis asks us to go beyond conventional framings of issues. For instance, normal academic analysis tends to stay in the second layer with occasional forays into the third, seldom privileging the fourth layer (myth and metaphor). CLA however, does not privilege a particular level. Moving up and down layers we can integrate analysis and synthesis, and horizontally we can integrate discourses, ways of knowing and worldviews, thereby increasing the richness of the analysis. What often results are differences that can be easily captured in alternative scenarios; each scenario in itself, to some extent, can represent a different way of knowing. However, CLA orders the scenarios in vertical space. For example, taking the issue of parking spaces in urban centers can lead to a range of scenarios. A short term scenario of increasing parking spaces (building below or above) is of a different order than a scenario which examines telecommuting or a scenario which distributes spaces by lottery (instead of by power or wealth) or one which questions the role of the car in modernity (a carless city?) or deconstructs the idea of a parking space, as in many third world settings where there are few spaces designated ‘parking’.17

Scenarios, thus, are different at each level. Litany type scenarios are more instrumental, social level scenarios are more policy oriented, and discourse/worldview scenarios intend on capturing fundamental differences. Myth/metaphor type scenarios are equally discrete but articulate this difference through a poem, a story, an image or some other right-brain method.

Finally, who solves the problem/issue also changes at each level. At the litany level, it is usually others—the government or corporations. At the social level, it is often some partnership between different groups. At the worldview level, it is people or voluntary associations, and at the myth/metaphor it is leaders or artists.

These four layers are indicative, that is, there is some overlap between the layers. Using CLA on CLA we can see how the current litany (of what are the main trends and problems facing the world) in itself is the tip of the iceberg, an expression of a particular worldview.18 Debating which particular ideas should fit where defeats the purpose of the layers. They are intended to help create new types of thinking not enter into debates on what goes precisely where.

What follow are five case studies which illustrate CLA. The first is a theoretical case study and the rest are from workshops held in Asia and Australia.19

Case studies

The futures of the United Nations

If we take the futures of the United Nations as an issue, at the litany level, of concern is news on the failure of the United Nations (the UN’s financial problems and its failures in Bosnia, Somalia and Rwanda).

Causes, at the second level in the UN example, include lack of supranational authority; no united military, and the perspective that the UN is only as good as its member nations. The solutions that result from this level of analysis are often those that call for more funding or more centralised power. In this case, the UN needs more money and power. Often, deeper historical reasons such as the creation of the UN by the victors of WW II are articulated as factors impeding structural change.

At the third level, the analysis of current UN problems then shifts from the unequal structure of power between UN member states to the fact that eligibility for membership in the UN is based on acquiring national status. An NGO, an individual, a culture cannot join the National Assembly or the Security Council. Deeper social structures that are actor-invarient include centre-periphery relations and the anarchic inter-state system. They are the focus at this level. The solution that emerges from this level of analysis is to rethink the values and structure behind the United Nations, to revision it. Do we need a superordinate authority or are market mechanisms enough to manage our global commons? One could at this level, develop a horizontal discursive dimension investigating how different paradigms or worldviews frame the problem or issue. How would a pre-modern world approach the issue of global governance (consensus, for example)? How might a post-modern (global electronic democracy)?

At the fourth layer of myth and metaphor, in the case of the UN, some factors that could lead to an exploration of alternative metaphors and myths include issues of control versus freedom, of the role of individual and collective, of family and self, of the overall governance of evolution, of humanity’s place on the Earth. Are we meant to be separate races and nations (as ordained by the myths of the Western religions) or is a united humanity (as the Hopi Indians and others have prophesied) our destiny? At the visual level, the challenge would be to design another logo for the UN, perhaps a tree of life or a circle of beings (instead of just flags of nations as currently outside the UN headquarters).

UNESCO/World Futures Studies Federation course

While the previous example was logically derived, the following are based on actual futures—visioning workshops. A CLA was conducted at a 1993 UNESCO/World Futures Studies Federation workshop in Thailand on the futures of ecology, where the issue of Bangkok’s traffic problem was explored. Here were the results.

At the litany level, the problem was seen to be Bangkok’s traffic and related pollution. The solution was to hire consultants particularly transportation planners at local and international levels.

At the social cause level, the problem was seen as a lack of roads with the solution that of building more roads (and getting mobile phones in the meantime). If one was doing scenarios at this stage, then there would be scenarios on where to build roads, which transportation modelling software to use.

At the worldview level, it was argued that the problem was not just lack of roads but the model of industrial growth Thailand has taken. It is the big City Outlook that had come down through colonialism. The city is better and rural people are idiots. Wealth is in the city especially as population growth creates problems in the rural area. The solution then becomes not to build more roads but to decentralize the economy and create localism ie where local people control their economy and feel they do not have to leave their life and lifestyle. Psychologically it means valuing local traditions and countering the ideology that West is best and that Bigger is Better. New leadership and new metaphors—from the fourth level—on what it means to be Thai (valuing local selfreliance, agricultural and Thailand’s pluralistic cultural traditions) emerged as the solutions.

Faculty of Work, Education and Training, Southern Cross University, Australia

When used at a seminar to the Faculty of Education, Work and Training at Southern Cross University in 1994 on the future of enrolments, the results were as follows.

At the litany level, the problem facing the University was declining enrolments. University professors saw it as an external problem. It was believed that the government should do something about it, for example, increase the number of scholarships.

At the social level, a range of alternative positions were explored. Among them that the faculty was too busy doing research, that there was a job boom and students preferred to work rather than sit in institutions. It could also be that the pool of students had declined, suggested participants. The solutions that result from this level of analysis are often those that call for more research to investigate the problem—or to create a partnership with industry. A precipitating action in this case study was the changeover in government from Labor to Liberal, with the government seeing education less as a social concern and more in economic terms.

At the next level, we explore how different discourses (the economic, the social, the cultural) do more than cause the issue but constitute it, that the discourse we use to understand is complicit in our framing of the issue. At this third level, participants discussed how conventional education no longer fits the job market and students’ experience of the world that they might get from community associations or high-tech TV. The solution that emerged from this level was the need to rethink the values and the structure of the educational institution, to revision it—quite different from the litany level where the issue was more student aid or different than the second level where the solution was partnerships between the university, government and industry.

At this level, one could develop a horizontal discursive dimension investigating how different paradigms or worldviews (and related ways of knowing) would frame the problem or issue. How would a premodern world approach the issue of teaching and learning?20 How might a postmodern?21

At the fourth level of myth and metaphor, issues that arose are: does schooling free us or is it merely social control? Should education still be based on the Newtonian Fordist model of the factory or is education about transcendence, the return to mission, the reenchantment of the world? At this level, the challenge is to elicit the root myth or metaphor that supports the foundation of a particular litany of issues. In this case, the metaphors used were that of the university as prison versus that the university as a garden of knowledge. This latter root metaphor was then used to aid in the visioning process, of imagining and creating futures participants desire.

Senior management, Southern Cross University

Later at the same university but at a workshop with senior management, the issue again was financial, this time a drop in funding for education from government. The solution that emerged from the social analysis (focusing on the history of the state and education) was to diversify the funding source, to ask where else can we get money. This is in contrast to the litany level where the focus was on how to convince the government not to change its policy or to hope that the Labor government would once again be elected. At the discourse/worldview level, discussions revolved around the changing nature of education—on the decreasing importance of traditional education, and increased emphasis on skills for a global economy. It was the change in worldview from knowledge as sacred, the idea of the scholar, and the idea of the scientist, to that of the education to create better skilled workers in a global competitive marketplace that became the focus of discussion. It was believed that it would have to be people that lobbied the government to rethink its educational policy, not just universities. At the last level, the issue became that of rethinking money and exchange as well as finding other ways to manage and fund a university.

Of all the many causal layered analyses done, this was the most difficult and least satisfying, largely because it was hard to see money in layered terms. It was nearly impossible to move outside the administrative—capitalist discourse—the jobs and futures of all in the rooms depended on that discourse. In this sense, spending more time on emerging issues that might change the funding nature of the university (or on what-if questions) might have been a better approach. Still, some important scenarios were developed from the analysis: (1) the collapse of the university system in Australia; (2) a corporate/industry aligned university, (3) a virtual university (expanding its customers and reducing its overhead) and (4) a return to core enlightenment values. These helped clarify the alternative futures ahead as well gain consensus on the preferred vision held by participants (a mix of a virtual university and core enlightnment values).

Queensland Advocacy Incorporated

The final case study was a seminar conducted on the Queensland Advocacy Incorporated, Australia, a systems advocacy organization for people with disability. The broad issue under discussion was the practice of housing people with disabilities in institutions. At the litany level, the issue was framed as abuse and neglect within institutions. The solution by the state is often prosecution of offenders and the creation of better institutions for those with disabilities, said participants. The locus of action has been government with the media providing images of positive actions the state is doing for people with disabilities.

At the social causes level, it has been the anxiety and frustration resulting from an imbalance of power within institutional settings that has been the key issue facing the disabled. The solution is thus focused on the individual rather than the social structure, taking the form of therapy for individuals with professionals providing the solution.

At the worldview level, it is fear of difference and individualism that is the central problem. People with disability are ‘othered’, seen as separate from ‘normal’ communities. At this level, the solution offered was consciousness raising, a softening of individualism and a strengthening of community. The actors who could make this change are people with disabilities themselves—particularly through their various organizations.

Finally, at the myth and metaphor level, it is the story of inclusion/exclusion, of who is normal and who is abnormal that was paramount, said participants. The negative story is that of the cyclops— the image of the one fundamentally different from us and thus to be feared and loathed.

The scenarios that resulted were: (1) society changes so that people with disability feel welcome, (2) genetic technology eliminates ‘disabilities’—a negative scenario for people with disability since this continues the location of their body in the space of nonacceptance; and (3) continued ghettoization with occasional feel good media-led campaigns.

Difference as method

While there are other examples, hopefully, the above give an indication of the possible beneficial uses of CLA. The utility of causal layered analysis is that it can categorize the many different perceptions of realities while remaining sensitive to horizontal and vertical spaces. Often individuals write and speak from differing perspectives. Some are more economistic, others are concerned with the big picture; some want real practical institutional solutions, others want changes in consciousness.22 CLA endeavors to find space for all of them.

Causal layered analysis allows for research that brings in many perspectives. It has a fact basis, which is framed in history, which is then contextualized within a discourse or worldview, which then is located in pre and post-rational ways of knowing, in myth and metaphor. The challenge is to bring in these many perspectives to a particular problem, to go up and down levels, and sideways through varied scenarios.

Like all methods, CLA has its limits. For example, it does not forecast the future per se and is best used in the conjunction with other methods such as emerging issues analysis and visioning. It can lead to a paralysis of action ie too much time could be spent on problematizing and not enough on designing new policy actions. Individuals might find themselves speculating on layer upon layer of meaning (as they can with scenarios, creating endless scenarios, instead of focusing on the plausible, probable or preferred) instead of focusing on the actors that hold particular worldview commitments and the structures and epistemes they inhabit.

For newcomers to the futures field, it may dampen their inner creativity, since it categorizes reality instead of allowing for a free for all visioning. For others, it is too difficult. This is especially so for empiricists who see the world as either true or false (who insist on being right instead being located in layers of reality, who reject that there are deeper levels embedded in their litany) or postmodern relativists who reject the vertical gaze CLA implies, who insist that there are not layers of meaning but just different equal spaces, all horizontally situated.

These limitations can best be overcome by moving up and down layers of inquiry, by not getting bogged down by the demands of any ideological perspective. CLA endeavors to find space for these different perspectives. It does not reject the empirical or the ideational but considers them both along a continuum. In this sense CLA, while part of the poststructural critical tradition, is very much oriented toward action learning. Answers are neither right nor wrong. Rather a dialogue between the different levels is sought. Interaction is critical here. By moving up and down levels and sideways through scenarios, different sorts of policy outcomes are possible and discourse/worldviews as well as metaphors and myths are enriched by these new empirical realities.

Of course, if at a workshop, a discussion does not fit into our neat categories of litany, social causes, worldview and metaphor and root myth, it is important to work with the individuals to create new categories. However, in general, these categories work because they capture how we think and categorize the world.

Causal layered analysis is best used with other methods such as visioning which can help create preferred futures, emerging issues analysis, which can help challenge our conventional views—shallow and deep—of reality, and backcasting, which can help generate a plan of action.

Causal layered analysis provides a method in which one can explore levels of responses, decolonise dominant visions of the future and create authentic—that are sensitive to the different ways women and men, civilisations, class, people with disabilities and those without (among other categories) know the world—alternative futures. CLA helps in creating a distance from the present, in deconstructing particular futures, exploring alternative orderings or knowledge, and genealogies of the present and the future. It does not however forecast the future, but perhaps, neither should futures studies.

Acknowledgements

I am grateful to Rick Slaughter, Jennifer Fitzgerald and Paul Wildman for editing earlier drafts. In addition thanks to Paul Wildman for his assistance during futures workshops at Southern Cross University and to Jennifer Fitzgerald for her assistance at workshops with Queensland Advocacy Incorporated. I would also like to thank Tony Stevenson—with whom I first presented CLA at World Futures Studies Federation course in Bangkok, Thailand, 1993—for creating an environment at the Communication Centre where eclectic methodologies could flourish.

Notes and references

  1. Slaughter, Rick, Developing and Applying Strategic Foresight, The ABN Report 5(10), 7–15 (December 1997).
  2. See, for example, Linstone, Harold, What I have Learned: The Need for Multiple Perspectives, Futures Research Quarterly, Spring 1985, 47–61. He divides futures into the technical, organizational and personal. Also see, Masini, Eleonora and Gillwald, Karin On Futures Studies and Their Social Context with Particular Focus on West Germany, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 38, 187–199 (1990). They take Linstone’s model and apply it historically to Europe and the US, seeing futures as going through technical, organizational and personal phases. See also, Sardar, Zia, Colonizing the future: the ’other’ dimension of futures studies, Futures 25(2), 179–187 (March 1993). Sardar argues for a colonization/decolonization dialectic. The classic map of futures studies remains Roy Amara’s division into preferred, possible and probable. See his, Amara, Roy, The Futures Field, The Futurist, February, April and June 1981. See also, Bezold, Clement and Hancock, Trevor, An Overview of the Health Futures Field. Institute for Alternative Futures, Washington DC, 1993. 29 pages. Bezold adds the plausible to Amara’s three categories. For a compendium with articles on methods by Schultz, Masini, Bezold, Slaughter, Sardar, Boulding, Milojevic and many others, see Inayatullah, Sohail and Wildman, Paul, Futures Studies: Methods, Emerging Issues and Civilisational Visions (A MultiMedia CD-ROM Reader), Prosperity Press, Brisbane, 1998.
  3. Ibid., 11.
  4. Inayatull, Sohail, Deconstructing and Reconstructing the Future: Predictive, Cultural and Critical Epistemologies, Futures, 22(2), 115–141 (March 1990).
  5. Inayatullah, Sohail, From Who am I to When am I?: Framing the Time and Shape of the Future, Futures, 25(3), 235–253 (April 1993).
  6. Caste.
  7. For the classical treatment of this, see Slaughter, Richard, Towards a Critical Futurism, World Future Society Bulletin, July/August and September/October 1984 and Schultz, Wendy, Silences, Shadows, Reflections on Futures. In Who Cares? And How? Futures of Caring Societies, eds Jim Dator and Maria Roulstone. World Futures Studies Federation, Honolulu, 1988. Rick Slaughter writes that critical futures study is itself an approach to futures questions that arises from a deep understanding of the dysfunctions of the Western worldview. This can seem threatening to those whose professional interests are bound up with… the industrial growth ideology. But, in fact, the analysis of dysfunctions at this deep level is only a ground-clearing exercise. Beyond this the task of exploring new domains of cultural possibility and potential. See Richard Slaughter, Developing and Applying Strategic Foresight, The ABN Report, 5(10), 11 (December 1997).
  8. See, Ray, Manas, India, Fifty Years On: Revisiting Modernity, research paper, School of Media and Journalism, Queensland University of Technology, Research paper quoting Kaviraj, Sudipto, Religion and Identity in India, Ethnic and Racial Studies, 20(2), 331 (1997).
  9. For the best discussion, See Shapiro, Michael, Reading the Postmodern Polity, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 1992. What makes the poststructural approach to research different is that whereas the general tendency of critical theory is toward a critique of ideology, based on the presumption of an authentic model of intelligibility, the genealogical imagination construes all systems of intelligibility as false arrests, as the arbitrary fixings of the momentary results of struggles among contending forces, struggles that could have produced other possible systems of intelligibility and the orders they support…. Rather than presuming an underlying system of order… [genealogy and other poststructural modes of inquiry] assume[s]… that every interpretation of the order is an arbitrary imposition…. There is no natural limit summoning the process of inquiry.(2) Others take a different approach, removing postmodernism from its Nietzschean traces and asserting that it is post-modern, that is, explicit statements about what can and should occur after modernity. See Griffen, David Ray, The Reenchantment of Science and Spirituality and Society: Postmodern Visions, State University of New York Press, Albany, 1988. In contrast, Zia Sardar takes a critical approach to postmodernity. In Sardar, Zia, Postmodernism and the Other: The New Imperialism of Western Culture, Pluto, London, 1998, Sardar, citing Zygmunt Bauman and Eric Hobsbawm, argues that postmodernism, unlike modernity, embraces, evil, 45. Since moral reality is totally relativised—all judgements are merely expressions of alternative discourses—any particular position carries the weight of any other position. What this perspective misses are the efforts of Michel Foucault and others who have argued that the question of the price of a political position cannot be removed from poststructural inquiry. Moreover, the issue of who gains and loses is not framed only in a limited class sense but also in the sense of which knowledge commitments, which worldviews, which definitions of reality remain naturalised and which are contested. For more on this see, Nandy Ashis, Futures Dissents in Sardar, Zia, Rescuing All Our Futures: The Futures of Futures Studies, Twickenham, Adamantine, 1998. Like Foucault, Shapiro’s intention is to reveal the circulation of power, to lay it bare. Causal layered analysis presents a model of inquiry which systematizes such an effort. However, given that postmodernity now comes to us as an extension of modernity, it is not surprising that what is embraced is total relativism and not the unveiling of layers of meaning, of politics.
  10. Postmodernists would reject the idea that deconstruction etc should be seen as a method. It is considered an anti-method, focused on problematizing not on providing recipes for policy. Moreover, there are no practitioners of postmodernity, if at all, the episteme of postmodernity practices on us.
  11. See, for example, the works of Ashis Nandy and Zia Sardar. Short essays by these two can be found in Futures. Ashis Nandy, Bearing Witness to the Future, Futures, 28(6/7) (1996), and Zia Sardar, Natural Born Futurist, Futures, 28(6/7) (1996). Also see the special issue of Futures on Futures generations thinking, which takes a Confucian approach to futures studies, Futures, 29(8) (October 1997).
  12. Emerging issues analysis is a method which identifies issues before they reach the trend or problem phase. It makes the assumption that issues follow an s-pattern growth curve from emerging to trend to problem. For more on this method, see the path breaking work of Graham T.T. Molitor, Public Policy Forecasting, 9208 Wooden Bridge Road, Potomac, Maryland 20854, USA.
  13. See, Sohail Inayatullah, The Futures of Communication, Futures (with Samar Ihsan and Levi Obijiofor), 27(8), 897–904 (October 1995), and Sohail Inayatullah, Futures Visions of Southeast Asia: Some Early Warning Signals, Futures, 27(6), 681–688 (July/August, 1995).
  14. Johan Galtung, Enactment of a Universal Drama-Ethnic Conflicts, New Renaissance, 7(1), 13–15 (1996).
  15. See Richard Slaughter 1989, Probing Beneath the Surface, Futures, 454 (October 1989), (Slaughter offers the brilliant idea of different types of futures studies from the litany-based to the epistemological-based. Indeed, it was Slaughter’s presentation at the World Futures Studies Federation conference in Budapest in 1990 that I noticed that his division of futures studies into levels was more than a typology but a potential method). Sarkar, P.R. (Shrii Shrii Anandamurti), Discourses on Tantra–vol. 1 and 2, Ananda Marga Publications, Calcutta, 1992 (Borrowing from Tantra, Sarkar argues that the individual mind is composed of layers. The first layer is the body, then the conscious mind followed by three layers of superconscious mind). Also see, Inayatullah, Sohail Oswald Spengler: The Rise and Fall of Cultures in Galtung, Johan and Inayatullah, Sohail Inayatullah, eds., Macrohistory and Macrohistorians, Praeger, Westport, CT. and London, 1997 (Spengler argues that reality should be seen as deep and shallow, not as truth or false).
  16. The Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth and other studies is a modern example of this.
  17. In Pakistan, for example, parking spaces are rare—parking as a regulatory discourse is not active there.
  18. Most policy thus merely reinscribes the modern capitalist worldview. However, by noticing how a particularly litany is shaped by a particularly worldview, this allows us to enter alternative worldviews and articulate different policy statements based on them. At the same time, CLA in itself is part of a worldview—one committed to methodological eclecticism but in the framework of a layered, post-postmodern view of reality. It thus not only challenges the totalizing nature of the empirical paradigm (to use Paul Wildman’s phrase) but as well the horizontal relativism of postmodernism.
  19. As a new method, there are limits to the number of case studies that can be drawn upon. I have also used CLA at a World Futures Studies Federation, Centre Catalan de Prospectiva, government of Andorra and UNESCO course on the futures of communication. See, Ihsan Samar, Inayatullah, Sohail and Obijiofor, Levi, The Futures of Communication, Futures, 27(8), 897–903 (1995). Paul Wildman has used the method at workshops for the Singapore Civil Service.
  20. Perhaps: community learning, through more spiritual approaches that revive the ideas of initiation into meaning and culture systems that current educational institutions lack, wherein merely an application form suffices.
  21. Perhaps: Focused on distant learning or interactive learning where boundaries between student and teacher, text and context disappeared.
  22. For an exploration of these differences, see Paul Wildman and Sohail Inayatullah, Ways of knowing, culture, communication and the pedagogies of the future, Futures, 28(8), 723–741 (October 1997).

Appendix

Causal layered analysis

The table below offers a systematic presentation of CLA as a method. It can be easily used as an overhead transparency.

Context

  • How one frames the problem, creates the solution
  • Language is not neutral but part of the analysis
  • Wisest inquiry goes up and down levels of analysis and across constitutive discourses

Horizontal levels

  • Identification of Problem (what is the problem)
  • Associated Solution (what is the solution)
  • Associated Problem-Solver (who can solve it)
  • Source of Information of problem (where is the problem/solution textualized)

Vertical levels

  • The ‘Litany’ official public description of issue
  • Problem seems unsolvable or it is up to government or power to solve it
  • Little personal responsibility
  • Often appearing as News. Mediated by interstate system and conventional accounts of reality. Short term approaches. Government solves the problem.
  • Social Science analysis

Short term historical factors uncovered

Attempts to articulate causal variables (correlation, causation, theory and critique of other theories)

Often State or monopolistic interest group has ownership

Solution often in Civil society in interaction with other institutions (values with structures)—partnerships.

Often appearing as Op-Ed piece or in a conservative journal

  • I Discourse analysis/Worldview

Problem constituted by frame of analysis

Strong focus on the genealogy of a problem

Many frames: paradigms, mindscapes, discourses

Solution often in consciousness transformation, in changing worldview, in rethinking politics of reality.

Solution long term action based on the interaction of many variables Often appearing in fringe/peripheral journals

  • Myth/metaphor analysis

Problem constituted by core myth (unconscious structures of difference, basic binary patterns)

Solution is to uncover myth and imagine alternative metaphors

Often appearing in the work of artists and visions of mystics

Solution can rarely be rationally designed

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Minimising Conflicts Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020).

By Ivana Milojević

First published 11 May 2020, Journal of Futures Studies.

“The challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic is that …[a]t times such as these, our stress levels become higher and our difficult emotions seem to surface more readily. This not only leads to more conflicts, it leads to more unresolved conflicts.”[i]

“As a rise in family violence due to the coronavirus crisis is set to strain an already critically overstretched social support system, some abusers are reportedly using COVID-19 as a psychological weapon.”[ii]

“We could be facing multiple famines of biblical proportions within a short few months … the world is not only facing “a global health pandemic but also a global humanitarian catastrophe.”[iii]

“Covid-19 has brought wealthy nations to their knees. What will happen when the virus breaks out in a war zone?[iv] … the impact [may]be unpredictable and potentially catastrophic.[v]

“As the coronavirus sweeps the world, it hits the poor much harder than the better off. One consequence will be social unrest, even revolutions.”[vi]

“Covid-19 is fuelling conflict: New ways will be needed to make peace.”[vii]

The headlines above suggest the critical importance of enhancing our conflict resolution capacities. As COVID-19 races around the world, we can anticipate further increases in conflicts. Indeed, psychologists and humanitarian organizations (such as WHO, the Red Cross, Beyond Blue) have already posted some helpful guidelines as to how to defuse intra- and inter-personal conflicts. Developing mental resilience along these recommendations is critical because it is our response to the pandemic rather than the virus itself that will cause conflicts. And while, at this stage, we cannot fully control the virus’s spread and its impact on the economy, there are still actions we can do to minimize conflict. Even in situations of protracted social conflict, the outbreak is opening up a variety of ‘new and unexpected scenarios’, making a whole range of strategies, impossible before the pandemic, possible today (Garrigues, 2020).

Exploring our options for the futures of conflict is linked to how and why conflicts arise in the first place. However, the causes and mechanisms of conflict differ. There are several specific areas over which conflicts tend to arise. They include: information, resources, relationships, structures, and values. Furthermore, there is intrapersonal/inner conflict. Negative economic, social, and health impacts of the 2020 pandemic are already expected to be huge.[viii][ix] Fuelling existing and emerging conflicts will only make matters worse. Epidemics and pandemics have historically been known to change the course of history. At times, the change was positive, for example: improvement in hygiene practices, redistribution of wealth,  improved individual and social relationships in the aftermath, and even “the end of chattel slavery” (Snowden, 2020) in some parts of the world. How damaged, or, alternatively, how well we come out of this one, will depend on many factors, including how we negotiate numerous conflicts ahead. Smart and workable strategies to minimise, manage and even transform the conflict for the better, will significantly influence our future lives and worlds.

INFORMATION

To start with, conflicts often arise in relation to insufficient information. Addressing conflicts about information is one of the easiest ways to prevent and ease the conflict. Policy makers and government agencies, reputable media, ethical individuals, organisations, and various experts all have a role to play in providing timely, accurate, and transparent information. This should help with finding the right balance between underestimating (‘I/we will certainly not get it’) and overestimating (‘we are all doomed’) the threat from the virus. Gathering facts and clarifying confusion makes a significant contribution to the easing of rising tensions – tensions that commonly bring fear, superstition, magical thinking, and conspiracy ideation into the open. This is always important, but it is especially critical nowadays (i.e. with the prevalence of ‘false/fake news’ and the ‘doubling-down’ of ideological positions), to rely on scientific, evidence-based and reputable sources of information. Governments, social media, and all of us can make a positive contribution in that regard. It can also be helpful to have a guiding metaphor or tagline to enable a focused strategy. For example, a helpful saying to address conflict related to insufficient or false information could be: ‘Accurate information, timely shared’ or ‘Information Hygiene’.

Brian Mcgowan, Unsplash

RESOURCES

Another common source of conflict is the scarcity of resources. We have seen ‘the battle over respirators’ increasingly becoming a source of international conflicts, corruption, and weakening previously friendly ties between nations (e.g. the US versus Germany or France and Germany versus Italy). At the community level, the police needed to intervene when ‘battles over toilet paper rolls’ in supermarkets manifested in physical violence.

Three key developments work in relation to conflicts over scarce resources. First, conflict decreases when the need for the resources dissipates, or individuals anticipate that there is no restriction, i.e. there are positive expectations of the future. This will likely happen if the need for respirators and other necessities – either due to virus containment or prevention/the invention of a cure or even fair rationing – diminishes. The race to find a workable vaccine and/or cure is already occurring and should be further encouraged and enabled. Fair rationing is currently ad-hoc, dependent on the goodwill of businesses and sporadic government measures. These measures should be made systemic, ongoing, and predictable. Uncertainty feeds into the existing and creates new conflicts. As much as possible, uncertainty should be reduced.

Another common strategy is to provide more of the resources that are currently scarce. In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic that means producing more respirators and other necessities (i.e. products needed for hygiene and protection such as disinfectants, masks, and so on). As is already happening in some places (i.e. distillers producing hand sanitizers or clothing factories producing face masks) this means reevaluating current production priorities and/or repurposing existing production capacities. Local/national/global bodies coordinating such efforts could become invaluable.

The third strategy focuses on the fair sharing and allocation of resources. We usually deal with the lack of resources better than we do with uncertainty or (real or perceived) injustice in how resources are distributed. Clear and fair rules based on community needs and legal and ethical frameworks would go a long way in making this type of conflict dissipate. These rules and strategies should focus on people’s needs rather than wants; i.e. sharing what is needed, as opposed to free-market principles that enable panic buying.

A helpful guiding metaphor or saying for addressing conflicts related to the scarcity of resources could be: ‘There is enough for all – solidarity’ or ‘equitable/fair sharing’.

Mick Haupt, Unsplash

RELATIONSHIPS

Yet another common source of conflict is over relationships. We are already witnessing considerable damage done to interpersonal relationships because of people’s tendency to overreact and/or become more selfish when fear and panic strike. Also dangerous is the ‘blame game’ – accusations as to who has or may contract the virus from whom, who is (ir)responsible and who is excessively cautious/‘over the top’, who has done something similarly irresponsible in the past, and so on. These tensions will introduce some destructive elements to the existing differences between people and communities which would otherwise not cause many problems. Alternatively, if problems do arise due to these differences, they would (in calmer times) find relatively easy solutions. So what we all need to watch for is the possibility of the breakdown of personal relationships, and do our best to avoid stereotyping and scapegoating – both are very common practices amongst humans, especially during times of stress. The best antidote here is to not ‘other’ individuals and communities, but to turn our thinking around – from judgment and exclusionary/excessive self-focus to a compassionate view and concern for others. That is, other people can be seen as very similar to me/us, with the same fears, concerns and needs. This mental practice helps avoid ‘the worse of humanity’ which often manifests during times of conflict.

A helpful guiding metaphor for addressing conflicts related to relationships could be: ‘Everyone is me’ or ‘We are all in this together’.

Filip Filkovic-philatz, Unsplash

STRUCTURE

Conflicts about structure are related to access to power or resources, as well as to different amounts of respect and decision-making authority that are given to groups and individuals (Kraybill, 2001). We have created a very unequal world, where structural injustices determine that the well-being and even lives of certain groups of people are endangered. During crisis situations, the system ensures that those ‘on the top’ have higher chances of survival and a higher quality of life. Those at ‘the bottom’ face the opposite. For example, all over the world, the system of patriarchy ensures that women and children in situations of domestic violence will suffer violent conflict and abuse even more during the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, reports about the increased rate of domestic violence during lockdowns and other restrictive measures are multiplying (e.g. OHCHR, Graham-Harrison et al. 2020, Murray & Young, 2020, Kelly, 2020). As economically difficult and stressful situations are known to increase this type of violence, systemic countermeasures are absolutely necessary. Other protective measures are also needed for millions of people who are currently losing their jobs and incomes, those already unemployed and homeless, refugees and low-income foreign workers. Structural measures are needed to address the possibility of being evicted, deported or not being able to afford the basics – for this reason welfare payments, universal basic income or aid need to be enhanced. If these measures are not put in place, we could expect a rise in violent conflict, criminality and the number of preventable deaths. Ideally, the Covid-19 pandemic can provide an opportunity to address the world’s unequal systems and structures and create more equitable and fair societies. It is also an opportunity to provide much-needed support to the struggling health sector and health workers. In place of the ‘survival of the fittest’ and ‘dog eats dog’ the guiding metaphor could be ‘global fairness’, ‘equitable societies – better for all’ or ‘flattening the inequity curve’.

Rusty Gouveia, Pixabay

VALUES

Conflicts over relationships and structure can be difficult to resolve due to our common insular and myopic views based on short-term thinking. Even harder is resolving conflicts involving values. For example, the rush to create a workable vaccine may be motivated by values which focus on profit or national interest (such as the US president’s offer to purchase exclusive access to coronavirus vaccine being developed by a German company) versus those that focus on altruism and the long-term greater good. Yet another value position is based on certain religious beliefs (‘God decides what happens’) versus values based on rational/secular beliefs (‘Humans are in charge’). Values and beliefs are commonly formed based on certain previous life experiences or ideological and faith positions. We can expect a shift in personal values (i.e. ‘It is important to shake peoples’ hands when we first meet them’ towards ‘social-distancing’) based on new experiences, whereas others might solidify even further (i.e. various faith positions). For example, the anti-vaxxer position is unlikely to shift, even if a reliable vaccine becomes available and the illness caused by the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) becomes more visible in their community. Discourses about ‘Big Pharma’, ‘natural’ immunity and the ‘benefits’ of the virus eliminating the old or sick members of the community will most likely continue acting as a cognitive ‘shield’ that prevents personal values and beliefs from being undermined by external reality. The best strategy so far invented here is to allocate a separate sphere of influence for each set of values – rational/secular/evidence-based/scientific to the realm of the state and government and policy-making vis-à-vis religious beliefs to the realm of the spiritual and psychological. Moreover, there will be an ongoing discussion in relation to privacy issues and individual freedom vis-à-vis public safety. Individualistic and liberal communities and societies will struggle more with the coming restrictions than collectivist and rules-based authoritarian societies. The helpful guiding metaphor will thus depend on the context: i.e. ‘In Government/Our Leaders (or Scientists and Health Workers) We Trust’ or ‘Community Mobilizes’.

Jordan Hopkins, Unsplash

INTRAPERSONAL

Certainly, the inner, intrapersonal conflict will also skyrocket. ‘Should I exercise in a closed area?’, ‘Should I go visit such and such?’, ‘Should I travel to XYZ?’, ‘How much food should I stock up on?’, ‘Do I have enough toilet paper?’, ‘How long will this last?’, ‘How will I make ends meet?, ‘Is XYZ financial decision smart or stupid?’, ‘What will happen to the others if I get sick’, ‘How will I cope if I get ill?’, etc. The main conflict will be between our ‘rational’ self and our ‘fearful/panicky’ one, as well as between our ‘inner extrovert’ and ‘inner introvert’. The best strategy so far invented in this regard is to practice ‘watching one’s own thoughts’ (i.e. mindfulness, cognitive behavioral therapy, critical thinking) and to attempt to distance ourselves a bit from them. Once we gain that small distance, we can then try to investigate what each sub-personality has to offer. Perhaps some sort of balance between rationality and fear should inform our actions? For example, we can take some precautions such as washing our hands and channel our fearful self (subpersonality) into vigilance over that specific set of actions related to personal hygiene. Another specific set of actions we can take based on our fearful self is to be vigilant about sources of information and double-check whether they are coming from reputable sources – information hygiene. On the other hand, our rational self (sub-personality) can assist us in preventing overreactions and making rash decisions based on emotions. Striking a balance between the two will, once again, go a long way in addressing our inner conflicts. Thus, one may choose to see themselves as assets rather than imaging these selves as opposing sides in a battlefield.

Another common inner conflict is between ‘control’ and ‘letting go’. Once again, balancing insights from these different types of mental processes is critical. The key is to direct time and energy towards things we can control, such as how to qualitatively organize one’s time during self-isolation or which recommendations to follow and to let go of things we cannot, such as other people’s behavior or other external factors.

Indeed, refocusing our attention is critical to minimizing personal anxiety and interpersonal conflict. So instead of overly focusing on ‘I do not want to die,’ ‘I do not want [somebody close to me]to die’, or ‘I will not be able to cope if I [or somebody close to me]get sick’ (thoughts possibly at the back of most people’s minds), the focus could be on ‘How can I help?’, ‘What is and is not in my sphere of influence?’, ‘How can I best ‘let go’ of things I cannot control?’, or ‘What is the wisest way for me to contribute?’. Psychologists commonly recommend strengthening self-care in times of crisis. This includes both behavioral (i.e. sufficient sleep, good food, some safe exercise, relaxation, etc.) and psychological responses (i.e. being aware of one’s own thinking and behavior and adjusting these patterns if needed). Spiritual and religious practices have been shown to be beneficial in crises as well (i.e. ‘Let go and let God’), providing they do not cause the erroneous application of ‘faith-based solutions’ in the material world, where fact-based solutions are necessary. The best way forward is: 1. Choosing the thoughts and actions that minimize the possibility of violence arising now and in the future, and 2. Using existing conflicts to create something new, a better future.

The guiding metaphors could be: ‘The Kindness (to oneself and others) Pandemic’ or ‘Self-Others care’.

Andre Ouellet, Unsplash

EMERGENCE: CREATING INNER AND OUTER BALANCE

Finally, conflict theorists also commonly mention that every conflict can become a golden opportunity to create something new. For example, perhaps we could use this time to pause and reevaluate some personal values and practices (i.e. from  ‘big life questions’ such as: ‘how should I live my life knowing that I can die unexpectedly and suddenly’, to smaller questions such as: ‘how should I organize my daily activities during this forced pause’, or, ‘how could I best be of service to others’)?

We can also inquire into solutions that are needed to improve existing social structures, systems and institutions. Perhaps the coronavirus and other environmental changes could help us rethink the human-nature relationship so that this relationship is also improved? Indeed, there is an opportunity to generate a strong global response to the climate crisis, and out of the “ashes of the corona crisis [create]something new” (Watts, 2020). Or, given the difficulties nations and states face to solve global problems, perhaps we could investigate what type of global and, alternatively, communal/regional/local institutions we should create or enhance?

We are already seeing efforts to coordinate global health efforts, even transform existing economic and social structures as well as the worldview behind them. For example, a joint statement of the G20 leaders framed the Covid-19 pandemic as a ‘powerful reminder of our inter-connectedness and vulnerabilities’ (G20, 2020). Because ‘the virus respects no borders’ they committed to ‘presenting a united front against this common threat’ (ibid.). Their call for action should be replicated as a springboard for a host of other problems – from climate change to global inequality – conflicts around Covid-19 thus truly becoming an opportunity to create something substantially better for the future. In their words, what is needed is ‘a transparent, robust, coordinated, large-scale and science-based global response in the spirit of solidarity’ (ibid.). Beyond dealing with this pandemic, there is much work left to be done. In addition to addressing pandemics, a global campaign for ‘a new just world economic system, where all nations work for the benefit of the other in a win-win fashion’ is also needed – ‘we need to change our outlook, or we [humans]will perish’ (Askary, 2020). Indeed, countless individuals and organizations have already been working on workable solutions towards such a transition for decades.

And yet, we do live in an imbalanced nation-based geopolitical system. We are in the middle of numerous conflicts, inner and outer. Some entrenched values and worldviews are behind structures and systems that reward inequity and injustice. Alternatives are all around us, though they remain marginalized. Balancing acts are never easy. Yet, depending on how skilled we are or become in the process of minimizing versus enhancing thoughts and behavior that give rise to conflict, we can influence the development of more or less peaceful futures. Indeed, with each and every action we take these days, we already do so. Hope remains that we can all use this illness as a way to make ourselves, others, and the planet healthier. The new guiding metaphor could be: ‘A different, better world and the best possible selves are possible’.

Summary Table

Source and Type of Conflict: Makes it worse Makes it better
Information Inability to discriminate between false and real information Relying on scientific, evidence-based and reputable sources of information
Resources Uncertainty and unfairness of allocation Clear and fair rules based on community needs
Relationships
Blaming, scapegoating, stereotyping Compassion and concern towards others
Structure Measures that help the more powerful Measures that help the most vulnerable
Values Insularity, rigidity Dialogue, openness
Intrapersonal Focusing on thoughts and actions that enhance fear, create controlling behavior and lead to being overwhelmed Awareness, self-other care, balancing sub-personalities, gratitude, surrender to what’s outside of one’s control
Source and Type of Conflict: Detrimental guiding metaphor Helpful guiding metaphor
Information I see, I share Accurate information, timely shared; Information hygiene
Resources Me/We first; First come, first served There is (will be) enough for all; Solidarity and fairness
Relationships ‘They’ are causing the pandemic We are all in this together
Structure Survival of the fittest Flattening the inequity curve
Values Natural immunity; We/humans are powerless In government/our leaders/scientists/ health workers we trust; Community mobilizes
Intrapersonal The sky is falling Kindness pandemic

Table by: Ivana Milojević, Metafuture, www.metafuture.org

About the Author

Dr. Ivana Milojević is a researcher, writer and educator with a trans-disciplinary professional background in sociology, education, gender, peace and futures studies and Director of Metafuture. She has held professorships at several universities and is currently focused on conducting research, delivering speeches and facilitating workshops for governmental and academic institutions, international associations, and non-governmental organizations. Dr. Milojević can be contacted at ivana@metafuture.org

The author would like to thank Charmaine Sevil for her creativity on the images in this article.  Charmaine Sevil is a futures designer and her website is www.sevilco.com.au

References:

[i] https://www.relationshipswa.org.au/news-events/current-news-and-events/2020/april/how-to-manage-relationship-tensions-during-covid-1

[ii] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-29/coronavirus-family-violence-surge-in-victoria/12098546

[iii] https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062272

[iv] https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/coronavirus-conflict-zones-fight-has-hardly-begun

[v] https://devpolicy.org/peace-and-the-pandemic-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-conflict-in-asia-20200414/

[vi] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-11/coronavirus-this-pandemic-will-lead-to-social-revolutions

[vii] https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/covid-19-is-fuelling-conflict-new-ways-will-be-needed-to-make-peace

[viii] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-03-19/real-pandemic-danger-social-collapse

[ix] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17167882; https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/646195/EPRS_BRI(2020)646195_EN.pdf