Alternative Futures of Europe (1999)

Visions from Young People at the University of Trier, Germany

What will Europe look like in the next 50 years? What are the plausible scenarios? Which are  the preferred? A seminar held on June 23, 1999 at the University of Trier at the Centre for European Studies explored these and other questions.  Facilitated by political scientist and Unesco Chair, Sohail Inayatullah, the seminar intended to help participants gain a sense of power over their own personal and collective futures.

Participants were students at the university finalizing their thesis and had undertaken the seminar, titled “Europe in an International Perspective”, to enlarge their perspective of Europe, particularly by seeing Europe through the eyes of other civilizations.

Participants spent three weeks discussing trends impacting the future of Europe. These trends included the aging of Europe, and long term population decline (unless immigration dramatically increased) as well as other trends such as the development of the knowledge economy, genetics and artificial intelligence and the possibility of the collapse of capitalism. Following discussions of these trends – the knowledge base of the future –  participants articulated their own visions for the future of Europe.

Scenarios

Four scenarios emerged. The first was Community/Organic. In this scenario, young people moved away from the chemical corporate way of life and searched for community-oriented alternatives.  Local currency networks, organic farming, shared housing and other values and programs favored by the counter-culture were favored.  The current scare of Dioxin in Belgium (with similar scares in the future even more likely) argued Eric Rieger could lead to quite dramatic changes away from artificial, pesticide and genetic foods, in the longer run, he believed.

They imagined a community household system where goods and services were shared. However, one participant, Sabina Frerichs imagined Europe not within the urban/community dichotomy but saw the entire of Europe as becoming community-oriented. This meant a clear move away from the view that I shop therefore I am  to I relate therefore I am.

This focus on relationship was also central for other participants. Indeed, it was the return to a strong family life that was pivotal in terms of how they saw the future of Europe. Taking care of children – and ensuring that the state provided funds for this – taking care of the elderly, and in general living so that familial relationship were far more important then exchange relations was a foundational value. In contrast to the community scenario, this future was far more focused on the nuclear family – the Family Future. Indeed, efforts to maintain this institution were considered crucial by some participants especially with the rise of genetic engineering, and the possibility of test-tube factories in the not so distant future.  Indeed, while more formal visioning workshops with technocratic experts examine scientific variables, these students asked, “will I have children? How many? How will I spend my time with them?”

Other participants believed that the new technologies would be dominant and instead of resisting them we should rejoice. We should celebrate in artificial intelligence, plastic surgery, gene enhancement, said Nadine Pepe, creating Plastic Europe. Anonymity in fact gives freedom from other; it allows the individual to express herself, while community and family suppress the individual. The new technologies as well promise great wealth, said Martin Valkenberg. Indeed some argued that far more important than family life was single life. It gave choice; it was not steeped in outdated institutions such as marriage. Europe was flexible and it should remain so when it came to formal relations.

A Bright Future?

While these visions were explored, the context was not always of a bright future. One participant, Christina Weiß, argued that oil reserves would certainly run out, and Europe would quickly decline, while Africa, with its plentitude of sun, and eventually solar energy,  would rise. Mass unemployment in the context of Castle Europe – keep the barbarians out – was the likely future. AIDS, Ebola, and many other disasters loomed ahead, said Green activist Jost Wagner.  Eva  Michels added that nuclear technology could also lead to serious problems and new forms of energy were needed.  Unless alternative forms of energy were developed, the future was bleak.

But again it did not need to be, argued Frerichs. The new technologies create the possibility for a network instead of national identity. They allow creativity to grow, and along with more spiritual views of what it means to be human, let humans transcend their narrow limitations.  What Europe could offer, said Asma Nitardy, was its multilingual focus, its vision of a multicultural society.  It was this gift she wanted to give her children, to ensure that they could speak German, Swahili, French, English, and mandarin, for example

The future can be bright, even if many of the trends do not currently look positive, was the overall conclusion of the seminar.

Deconstructing the Year 2000: Opening Up an Alternative Future (1999)

Sohail Inayatullah[1]

How has the year 2000 functioned in discourse?  

To begin to understand how the post year 2000 future can look like, we need to analyze how the year 2000 has functioned in our discourses.

First, it has been an empirical indicator of progress, of the rise of the West. “Two thousand years and still going strong, with every attempt to dislodge the West, having been appropriated” might be the operating slogan. The rise of the West – clearly not predictable a 1000 years ago, with China or the Islamic world far more likely to ascend to world dominance – has occurred for various reasons: because of  military technology (and the willingness to use it),  through more efficient organizations, and through inflows of wealth (conquest and economic colonization). But more crucial has been through liberal ideology, where the image of the melting pot invites all in but always on the terms of the West, most recently specifically on the terms of America. Dislodging the West from its temporal claims, through rescuing one’s own authentic cultural difference, will be problematic since all other views are allowed in. This is the traditional Hindu model (now being challenged by the BJP); there is no need to convert others, since all are hindus. In the American case, everyone wants to go to Disneyland, play American football, watch the baseball world series, eat hotdogs and hamburgers and date blonde cheerleaders.

How could it be different? American-ness has become universally naturalized.  So much so that aspects of Japan, South-East Asia are far more Western than the West itself (and poor copies thereof as well).  Others see themselves through the eyes of Pax Americana – beauty, truth and reality become narrowly defined.  Of course, with the United States set to become the second largest Spanish speaking nation in the world, and with immigration the only likely savior to the rapidly ageing West, multiculturalism appears to be here to stay. The US Army also will be dramatically muslim in 30 or so years (and with many senior US government posts coming from Army leaders, we can well imagine a shift in US foreign policy around 2025). [1] The long-term net result of multiculturalism may be an entirely new set of identity arrangements. In California, where in 30-50 years there will be two distinct classes – a rich white ageing cohort and a younger Hispanic-Asian poorer cohort – the issue will be who will secede from whom. However, what has brought the West to the year 2000 is unlikely to help it continue. This is far more than Spengler’s decline thesis, wherein the evil of the money-spirit leads to the fall. It is liberalism itself, the partial opening of the doors of the West to the “other” which could herald the West’s final days. The right wing has realized this and thus attacks immigration and the other whenever possible. Social movements, the varied nongovernmental organizations too have realized the demographic and cultural shifts underway but construe the limits of the nation-state and the creation of a multicultural planet as part of our evolutionary journey, as a positive step in human evolution.

Another alternative for the West will be genocide. That is, either the West becomes authentically multicultural, disavowing the melting pot metaphor and moving a salad bar or even a global garden of varied flowers – a gaia of civilizations – or it limits intake and is undone by its own economic success. What will result will be an ageing population with no youth to help pay for pensions and to instill cultural and economic dynamism. Alternatively, taking the Roman path, the West could tax the provinces heavily, and when they rebel, send in the military. This, of course, will only hasten the decline.

A final possibility, which is central to the Year 2000 discourse, is to go it alone. This means the creation of an artificial, high-tech society, where few work (thus no need for masses of youth), biotechnology, space-technology, nano-technology, etc, maintain the West’s advantage over others. This is the “museumization” of the other, of culture in virtual space. Authentic transformation, dialogue with other cultures is avoided, since they can be uploaded and intercourse made virtually possible.

This last scenario will solve some of the pressures of the end of the modern world but not all of them. That is, what will result is a rich society living in anonymous space pretending to me in community with each other – not a virtual hell since all emotions will have been selected out – but a passive slow death of success (that is, success as the final step on the ladder of failure).

Which direction the West decides to take as forces for creating 500 nations from our current 180 or so gather momentum will be among the stories of the next 30 years. My preference would be for the 500-nation scenario in the context of a strong world government focused on international and local human rights. The development of this world would be incremental with current steps toward regional and global governance central to this story. While Europe has moved towards integration, other parts of the world are far behind, South-Asia and Africa, for example. However, expansions of size must come out in the context of equity – economic, cultural and epistemic. Merely expanding size for efficiency reasons often continues unfair terms of trade and cultural hegemony. Global governance is possible once regions themselves have a language and identity outside of those defined by the large hegemons.

Second, The year 2000, much like Kennedy’s vision of man on the moon has represented a goal to realize; a high tech, liberal, fair society where the American way can flourish, where hardwork, gusto, and splendid organization can realize anything.

The dark side of “man on the moon” has been the strengthening of the technocratic and militaristic dimensions of the US – the privileging of the military-industrial complex. Even with the new information and communication technologies, command hierarchies are required, any semblance of transparency is lost.  While certainly some large projects are needed for every civilization, the year 2000 functions as a metaphor that counters economic democracy, “small is beautiful” approaches.

What is needed is a mix of large state/global projects, along with a large people’s economic sector, a real market of buyers and sellers of goods, services, information and worldviews. A third layer of the market would ideally be the cooperative layer, wherein those who work, own. Together. Such a three layered system would function as an antidote to the command structures that operate on principles of nationalism and authority.

Third, the year 2000 has represented the future. Defined as the latest technology, the latest gee-whiz solution, the turn of the millennium represents gadgets that will make life easier. What is lost in this particular construction of the future are social technologies, changes in social institutions and management. These are lost partly as they are harder to imagine since they are seen as given (and not human created as with technologies) and partly because each institution has embedded political interests, which make social and political change difficult.

While technology will always be the great seducer, the challenge for an emancipatory futures studies is an unending critique of our social institutions and the creation of new structures that better meet our changing needs.

Fourth, the year 2000 has represented the past. Implicit in it is the mythology of Christian civilization and its prophet. How we time or calendar the world is an indicator of which civilization’s myths we accept.  Using the scientific notation of BCE, before the Common Era, exacerbates this – what is common about it, one can ask? Egypt’s television commercial that plays on CNN International – visit Egypt’s fifth Millennium – is one way to disrupt the universalization of a particular culture’s time.  Aboriginal Australian’s claims that they are celebrating their 42nd millennium serve a similar purpose. As Greg Dening writes in Time Searchers: “For 42 millennia all parts of this land – its rivers, its deserts, its coastal plains, its mountains – have been imprinted with the human spirit. It has been filled … with language. Language encultures the land. Language brushes the land with metaphor.”[2]

Fifth, the year 2000 represents hope. Humanity has survived – nuclear accidents, biological warfare, asteroids have not ended humanity. There is much to celebrate. However, in our joy, we need to ask how much we have participated in the degeneration of hope. Why must we celebrate not becoming extinct? What planet have we created wherein children in the Pacific cannot sleep at night because of French nuclear testing or in South Asia because of domestic politics, and constructing other as the enemy?

The growth data on this last Millennium does look good, though.  Economic growth in the last 1000 years, since the rise of the west, has outstripped growth for the first 1000 years. Since 1820, GDP has grown .96% a year compared to the Middle Ages when it rose .05% a year. [3]What is left unanswered is distribution; the question Marxists have focused on.  We know quite well that the world’s richest people in the world have assets that exceed the combined GDP of the 48 least developed nations, and the world’s 225 richest individuals have a combined wealth of over 1 trillion US$, equal to the annual income of the poorest 47% of the entire world’s population.  We also know that the trend is toward greater inequity with the share of global income between the world’s rich and the world’s poor doubling from 30-1 in 1960 to 59 to 1 in 1989. [4]The number of people living in absolute poverty increases by nearly 25 million a year, and over 40 million people die of hunger-related diseases each year (the equivalent of over 300 jumbo jet crashes a day with no survivors). [5]

Movements from outside the centre have also focused on issues of structural violence, how skewed distribution leads to poverty and misery. Intellectuals in the cultural studies camp have added that knowledge itself is defined by the centre, such that Western hegemony has occurred not only through the conquest of local economies, the secularization and urbanization of rural space, but as well through defining others as less scientific, and more irrational. The year 2000 has remained an important benchmark in this process. The West has owned it.

Futurists have also used the year 2000 but most often uncritically oblivious to the package that comes with that year. Hoping to use the year 2000 as a way to change the present, more often than not, it is the future that has not changed. At least this dimension of futures studies will not be available any more but the codes of progress, of the “future as new” are so deep, that merely a change of sign, of symbol does not mean a change of political structure.  From the year 2000 discourses, we will move to “humanity in the third millennium” hype.

What will change?

Now that it is the morning after, shall we expect the world problematique to change?

First, we should not expect change from reports on the future, from global think-tanks pointing out the world’s problems. These merely continue the litany of everything that can go wrong or of the dramatic new technologies. They create a politics of fear. They do not question the causes behind particular futures, the worldviews that support certain interests, and the grand mythology that provides cultural legitimacy for them. Without such a layered analysis, any attempt to forecast or see the future will be trivial. Damning data will be presented, reports circulated, conferences held but it will be merely an information gathering exercise, with no possibility for social transformation.

Second, while any serious thinking of the future must have a language for transformation, we should not be stupid and forget the deep structures that mitigate against change. The symbols of progress, of velocity (the post-industrial Internet net era), of soft fascism, monoculture appopriating the other (Disneyland), of artificiality (genetics and plastic surgery) and standarization (Mcdonalds) remain dominant.

The future will be driver by technological linear progress, with corporations as the world’s leaders. Instead of the welfare state, distribution will come about through the altruistic behavior of wealthy businessmen. This is Herbert Spencer’s vision, each one of us lives it, breathes it.[6] The recent attack on the welfare state confirms Spencer’s vision of the future.

To merely engage in scenarios of the future without understanding the stronghold of these myths will only result in fantasy futures, preferred images without any basis of possibility

Opening up the future

But are there attempts to open up the future? Unfortunately, most visions of the long-term future remain technocratic. With 2000 now history, 3000 beckons. And it is being defined in the same old terms: linear, space oriented, technological, one culture, man as superior, white as normal. One example is the painting that adorns the walls and website of the Foundation for the Future (www.futurefoundation.org). While otherwise a foundation with some multicultural intentions, its focus on space and genetics continues the colonizing impulse of the year 2000 but now extends it toward the year 3000.  With the year 2000 now history, it will be a mixture of space, genetic and artificial intelligence that will become the defining discourse, the straightjacket of the future. The Internet is already a marketing tool for telecommunication giants, and, it has a clear double-edged nature, i.e. it is chaotic, and could become more so. Biotechnology has become equally corporatized and space exploration will follow suit.

While Johan Galtung and many others have always called on futurists to not be drawn into short term policy analysis, the long long term, when defined within current categories and technologies can be equally oppressive.[7]

Positive signs 

Where to then? Are there positive signs?

Well, first of all we do have an emerging language, ethos of an alternative future. That is, while the likely scenario is the artificial society, there is also the possibility of a communicative-inclusive society, less focused on information per se but more on a conversation between cultures, on authentic civilizational dialogue.[8] While there are certainly limits to dialogue without changes in power relations – economic, military, technological, epistemological, spatial and temporal – still the possibility of listening to how other civilizations see themselves and their futures is now possible. Travel, the net, the economic growth in East Asia, projects within Islam, Indian civilization to recover their futures silenced by external and internal colonization.

Second, the language of rights has also become dominant.[9] While the much earlier battle was to increase the rights of the nobility vis-a-vis the king, rights in the last few hundred years have expanded to include the rights of labour, the rights of the environment, the rights of women, children, and now even parents rights. Rights have become a powerful vehicle for social change because those victimized now have a language in which they can be understood. While certainly slavery continues in practice, as does racism, there is agreement that it is wrong to enslave others and construct others as racially inferior. Rights create new forms of legitimacy, new categories of possible redress.

Third, it is not so much futures studies but future generations studies which personalizes the future, locating it in family and in the real lives of our children’s children’s.[10] While a decision-maker may be less apt to concern himself with futures a decade from now – given the short term nature of electoral cycles – asking him what world he wants for his children changes the dynamic. For example, one can ask a Pakistan leader, shall I put money into nuclearization or poverty alleviation. The first almost guarantees that children generations from now will live in misery; the second guarantees, that they will live. The future must be personalized.

Future generations assert a double vision. As Greg Dening writes of Aborigines and other First people: “The first people had a double vision of their landscape. They could see it for what it really was – rocks, trees, rivers, and deserts. They could see it for what it also really was – their ancestors’ bodies, the tracks of their walking.”[11]

Feminists and others who are not part of the dominant paradigm share this double vision. They function within modernist and postmodernist modes of limited rationality, of consumerism, of hypercapitalism, of patriarchy, of quick time, and they live in spiritual time, slow time, future generations time, in gendered partnerships, in alternative visions of what it means to be human.  It is this double vision that multiculturalism seeks to embrace and enliven by supporting it, by legitimating it.[12]

Fourth, is the language of alternatives to capitalism. While the fundamental question of how and when the capitalism system will transform remains unanswered – the system survives every crash, and even as the financial economy continues to delink from the real economy – the system continues to flourish, expanding globally and temporally.[13]

Even with the next crisis to come when the current babyboomers begin to sell stocks and when there are not enough young people to pay the pensions of the elderly, the system will likely survive by allowing the Third World in. The cost to the system will be multiculturalism and the nation system, but the gain will be the survival and prospering of capitalism.

Still, at the very least there is the language of economic democracy, of corporate accountability, of the quadruple bottom-line (gender, profit, nature and society) and we can add the fifth line, future generations. Little of it is followed, however. For example, in the USA while Congress talks of environmentalism, funding for alternative energy is cut and tax support for oil corporations is increased.[14]

Fifth, globalism, even as it reduces the choices of most, gives us a language that can be used for systemic transformation. Ideally, globalism will move from the globalization of capital to the globalization of labour – its free movement without visa restrictions (a necessary approach if the West is to survive ageing). Eventually we could see the globalization of ideas, that is, the transformation of what is legitimate news and knowledge from the confines of the West.

The final stage is the globalization of security. While most likely this will be NATO-led, in the long run, we can imagine a world security insurance system (for small nations), a real world government, with four levels of governance (a house of non-governmental organizations, a house of corporations, direct voting, and a house of states).  This means the continued porousness of nations, being made less sovereign at all levels – ideational, capital flows, environmental crisis, and in the recent precedent, maltreatment of minorities.  While real-politics remains the guiding ideology behind changes in governance, one cannot underestimate chaos factors and the new technologies. Cyber-lobbying, for example, allows a small group of individuals to spread news for good and bad. Amnesty International and other non-governmental organizations (as social movements and not as Red Cross Band-Aid agencies) can use these technologies to challenge the hegemony of news that large powers have.

Sixth, is the language of action at a distance. Whether this comes from physics of mystics, the important point is that ideas – or more accurately fields of awareness – can transform the world. They do so through rational logic but as well through presence.  The Indian idea of microvita is crucial to this discourse, and even the TM movements flawed experiments on meditation and social peace are an important step in loosening the stranglehold of materialist science.[15] What this means is that information is not merely data but perception at far more subtle levels. It means that who you are, one’s lived life, is open for all to see. While we largely remain officially blind of such a notion of presence, it is that which is most foundational and elusive in changing the world.

What then is the model of the future?

The following criteria are implicit in the Communication-inclusive vision of the future.

1.      Epistemological pluralism – an openness to many ways of knowing, postnormal science using Jeremy Ravetz’s language.[16]

2.      Economies that include growth/distribution and are soft on nature. Ending the development paradigm and moving to an economics based on global labor, human rights, access to power and justice.

3.      Spiral view of history and future, that is, the future is not linear but can turn back on the past to reinvigorate. This means seeing the future outside of the new, allowing for emergence but not making it into a fetish.

4.      Progressive – that is, the dynamic dimension of  progress is crucial but progress  must be rescued from the exclusion of other, that is, seeing others within the terms of those that are economically currently ahead. Progress is needed for visioning the future but not as a tool for subordination. A history of progress must be about inclusion, of rights, as well as of increased economic wealth. Progress also means far better use of more subtle resources in managing our affairs, that is, imagination and spirituality.

5.      Gender balance – gender equality, access to resources, self-meanings. Without ending male dominance, any future will be more of the same.

6.      Ecological balance – living softly with nature – a commitment to future generations.

7.      A spiritual core. Without this dimension, any social justice, environmental gain, merely leads to anomie. It is the spiritual that gives meaning, that provides the sensitivity to touch upon grace, essentially this is about ananda.

Integration after postmodernity

Is any of this likely? First we need to see postmodernity, the loss of a centre, the delegitimation of the Enlightenment project, mission, as a natural end-phase of modernity. Following chaos, there will be a return to a new universalism. Ideally it will be both local and global. Political power will have to be global so as to have some way to challenge local fascisms; the danger, of course, will be a global government becoming another Pax Americana. Economies, however, must be decentralized. Alternatively, the artificial future, where only a few work and the rest of us exist without meaning or hope, remains possible, even probable.

But the “morning after” after the year 2000 means that the ideology of monoculturalism, linear economic growth, technocraticism has lost one of its ideological pillars.  Another pillar that is slipping is the idea of endless growth. Economist Robert Henry Nelson, however, believes that it is this attack on progress, on growth, that has weakened the Enlightenment project, and, from his view, social movements, instead of creating new models of growth, wrongly focus on social justice, environmental rights, and spiritual insight.[17]

As the intelligentsia for hypercapitalism search for new legitimating factors, the challenge in this possible window of opportunity will be for the anti-systemic movements to create visions and practices of a more multicultural society with an alternative economics that is spiritually grounded.

Can it be done? Perhaps.

Will it be done? Yes. Once realized will it be a better future? For the majority of the world, it will be a vast improvement, as they will finally regain their lost dignity. Feudalism, slavery, sexism, and capitalism will disappear from most pockets of the planet. Virtual futures will not disappear nor will space exploration. Exploitation of the other will not be eliminated either but at least it will be minimized. Still, with a multicultural spiritual episteme defining the real, it will be a balanced society, prama, with glimmers of bliss for all.


 

References:

[1] Ayeda Husain Naqvi writes in “The Rise of the Muslim Marine” (NewsLine, July 1996, 75-77) that while

hate crimes against Muslims rise all over the world, surprising the US military is one of the safest places to be a muslim. Indeed, Qasem Ali Uda forecasts that in 20 years, 25% of all US marines will be Muslims and in a 100 years, most will be Muslim. Given the incredible influence that that former military personnel have on US policies (ie a look at Who’s Who in America shows that military background and law school education are the two common denominators on the resumes of America’s most influential people.)

[2] Dening, Greg. “Time Searchers,” The Australian Review of Books (August, 1999), 11.

[3]  Maddison, Angus. “The Millennium – Poor Until 1820,”Wall Street Journal (Jan, 11, 1999).

[4] United Nations Human Development Report 1998, Oxford, Oxford University Press. Summary is from: Horin, Adele. “For Richer … For Poorer, “Sydney Morning Herald, 45.

[5] http: www.nilan.demon.co.uk – Wealth and poverty.

[6]  Inayatullah, Sohail.  “Herbert Spencer: Progress and Evolution,” in Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah, eds., Macrohistory and Macrohistorians. Westport, Ct: Praeger, 1997, 68-75.

[7]  Galtung, Johan. Peace, Vision and the Future in Inayatullah, Sohail and Wildman, Paul,  eds. Futures Studies: Methods, Emerging Issues and Civilizational Visions – A Multimedia CDROM Reader. Brisbane: Prosperity Press, 1998.

[8] For a series of essays that explore this possibility, see, Sardar, Ziauddin, ed. Rescuing All of Our Futures: The Futures of Futures Studies. Twickenham, England: Adamantine Press, 1999.

[9] For more on this, see Inayatullah, Sohail. “The Rights of Your Robots: the Politics of Exclusion and Inclusion in History and Future,” in Ryden, Edmund, ed., Human Rights and Values in East Asia. Taiwan: Fujen Catholic University, 1998, 143-162.

[10]  See the special issue of Futures titled, Learning and Teaching About Future Generations edited by Slaughter, Richard and Tough. Futures. 1997. 29 (8).

[11]  Dening Ibid., 13.

[12] Milojevic, Ivana. “Women and Holistic Education,”New Renaissance, 1996. 6(3), 16-17. www.ru.org

[13] See the symposium titled Beyond Capitalism. Journal of Futures Studies. 1999. 3(2).  It includes essays by Charles Paprocki, John Robinson, Alan Fricker, Brenda Hall-Taylor, and Sohail Inayatullah.

[14] Thompson, Dick. “Capitol Hill Meltdown,”Time. 1999, August, 9, 50-51.

[15] See Gauthier, Richard, The Microvita Revolution in Inayatullah, Sohail and Wildman, Paul. ,  eds. Futures Studies: Methods, Emerging Issues and Civilizational Visions – A Multimedia CDROM Reader. Brisbane: Prosperity Press, 1998. For the TM movement, see their various sites, including: www.kosovopeace.org.

[16] Ravetz, Jerome, special issue of Futures.

[17] Nelson, Robert H. “Why Capitalism Hasn’t Won Yet,” Forbes (November 125, 1991), 104.

Aging Populations – From Overpopulation to Underpopulation (1999)

By Sohail Inayatullah

As the world welcomes passenger number six billion – symbolically chosen by Kofi Annan to be a baby Bosnian from Sarajevo – the debate on overpopulation heats up. Concern over the carrying capacity of the Earth, resource use of the rich, and fear of billions of “others” at immigration gates consistently make population a high ranking world problem.[1]

Delivering contraceptives to the teeming masses is the solution most often raised. Others point to poverty, seeing population as a development problem, not as a trait of “impulsive races.” Still others go deeper, examining women’s power, their control over the future, their bodies. It is concern for the future, that is, one’s social security, of who will take care of oneself in one’s older years, that is seen as a decisive variable. While most states in India have high birth rates, Kerala does not, largely because feudalism has been overthrown and a stable social security system, a stable view of the future, created.[2]

But, there is evidence that instead of overpopulation it will be underpopulation that will be the world’s biggest world problem, first in the West, and then most likely throughout the world. Only nations that have high immigration in-takes and can make the switch from a youth economy to an old person’s economy will survive. This will mean among the biggest changes in human history – pensions, growth economies, 9-5 work schedules, student/work/retirement life pattern and male domination – all will have to end if we are to succesfully navigate the agequake ahead.

Writes Paul Wallace, author of Agequake, historically “we have been remarkably young. Our average age has been around 20 or less. But in the current generation’s lifetime, the average age of the world will nearly double from 22 in 1975 to 38 in 2050, according to the UN’s latest projections issued at the end of 1998. Under another projection, it could reach over 40 as early as 2040. Many countries will reach average ages of 50 or more.”[3]

Not only is the population pyramid about to flip but populations in Europe are generally poised to plunge on a scale not seen since the Black Death in 1348. “An extraordinary crossover is already starting to occur as older people outnumber younger people for the first time in human history. In the early twenty-fist century, this tilt from young to old will take on a new dimension. It will go hand in hand with the onset of population decline in many developed nations as they experience the first sustained demographic reverse in centuries.”[4]

But this is not just a Western trend, indeed, because of the speed of the demographic slowdown in the developing world, it means that “they will age much more quickly than the West,” says Wallace. In twenty years’ time, China will be one of the most rapidly ageing societies.[5]

The worker to retiree ratio

While many of these changes will be obviously positive, longer life (by mid-century there will be over two million centenarians compared with 150,000 today)[6], healthier life styles, less childhood deaths, and falling number of young people (which means falling crime rates), others are not so positive. Who will pay for the retirement benefits of the older population? This is especially important after 2010 when the ratio of the working age population to old dependents will decrease. And over the next thirty years the ratio of workers to retirees on pension in industralised nations will fall from the current 3-1 to 1.5 to 1. How will societies stay rejuvenated with new ideas? Would we have had a personal computer revolution if youngsters like Steve Jobs were not there to challenge authority and create new products? And what of the Internet.com revolution and the associated changes in corporate culture and organizational culture? Of course, the definition of ageing will change, and older people may become much healthier than they are now, but this does not solve the problem of dependence on the young for economic growth. And what will happen when those purchasing stocks in the 1980’s and 1990’s begin to sell them 20 years later to pay for their retirement? There will be no age-cohort to purchase them as the baby boomers have currently. Will we enter a long term bear market and thus possibly a long term economic depression? Will the demand problem be worsened by the continued delinking of the finance economy from the real world economy of goods and services, of cyberspace from manufacturing and investment space?

But what is the cause of the ageing of society? Two factors. First, we are living longer and second, birth rates are falling. “In the late 1990’s fertility rates are already at or below replacement level – 2.1 children per woman – in 61 countries with almost half the world’s population,“ writes Wallace.[7] And so on, even nations like India and Indonesia are likely to fall below this level.

Along with ageing, there will be a genderquake. In the West, children are being postponed as women focus on their careers, this brings down fertility as there is a strong link between a woman’s age at first birth and the average size of her family. Also many more women are not having children at all. In contrast, leaders in the developed world are urging women to produce more children, Japan is even trying to convince the salaryman to spend more time at home, play with the children, make his wife’s life easier, so she will have more children. While this does not mean patriarchy in Japan is under any threat – structural changes are unlikely – it does mean women’s value will be enhanced.

Iceberg ahead

The population pyramid is reversing. Populations are declining, especially in rich nations. Populations are like supertankers, it takes forever to turn them around, but when they do, the changes are dramatic. Europeans have not noticed the population decline because of immigration, high fertility in the past and declines in mortality, but in reality birth rates are plunging in reverse. Pete Peterson in his book, Gray Dawn, describes global ageing as an iceberg. While it is easy to sea above the waterline, it is far more difficult to prepare for the wrenching costs … that promise to bankrupt even the greatest powers … making today’s crisis look like child’s play.”[8] One solution for the West is immigration. Already California is set to become a majority minority state. The USA will become the second largest spanish speaking nation in 2020. But there are danger signs as generally older Californians will be caucasian and rich, while younger one’s will be hispanic and poorer. The question is not will California secede but which California will secede? Writes, Pete Pederson:

“Perhaps the most predictable consequence of the gap in fertility and population growth rates between developed and developing countries will be the rising demand for immigrant workers in older and wealthier societies facing labor shortages. Immigrants are typically young and tend to bring with them the family practices of their native culture – including higher fertility rates. In many European countries, non-European foreigners already make up roughly 10 percent of the population. This includes 10 million to 13 million Muslims, nearly all of whom are working-age or younger. In Germany, foreigners will make up 30 percent of the total population by 2030, and over half the population of major cities like Munich and Frankfurt. Global aging and attendant labor shortages will therefore ensure that immigration remains a major issue in developed countries for decades to come. Culture wars could erupt over the balkanization of language and religion … electorates could divide along ethnic lines.”[9]

Higher Productivity

A second solution is increasing productivity, working smarter. While the convergence of computing and telecommunications have not shown immediate gains, it is early days yet. The problem of fewer young people working will not be a problem since they will be able to produce more wealth. And even if the Internet revolution does not lead to higher productivity, the real explosion may come from the convergence of genetics research and computing/telecommunications. Productivity could be enhanced through first, genetic prevention, second, genetic enhancement (of “intelligence” “typing speed” “language ability”) and finally, genetic recreation. It is the latter that is is the bet for the right wing in developed nations as this guarantees the survival of a shrinking “white” population (not caucasian since south asians are counted as caucasians in Western statistics), keeps their place as dominant caste. Genetics with nano-technology could go a step further, ending scarcity, and at the same time, ending economic advantage and one of the primary reasons immigrants leave their home nations in any case.

The agequake is predictable since projecting the future age structure of a population can be done with a great deal of certainty (barring asteroids, pandemics, etc). Demographics also can predict changes in behavior since one is more likely to migrate in one’s 20s, one is more likely to vote conservative in one’s 50s (when one has property to conserve, and when one is concerned more with crime and order and less with freedom and social justice). Wallace also points out that membership in one’s generation is significant in determining one’s life chances, but not in the ways one thinks. For example, if you are born in a baby boom year there will be more competition throughout your life, while if you are born in a baby-bust year there will be less competition for work, marriage partners and houses.

Surviving the agequake

How can one personally survive the agequake? Firs, it is crucial to think in the long term, the very long term. Second, it is important to buy and sell in products and services that are based on ageing. Equally crucial is to think in terms of products which baby boomers will be eager to purchase so as to remember their youth – the nostalgia factor .Third, the future will be multicultural, rainbow societies with diverse identities. Already the buying power of latinos in the US is larger than Mexico’s economy.[10] Just as internet stocks took off, in the not too distant future, ageing-related stocks might as well. Retirement homes for retiring babyboomers in developing countries will probably also do well as they will want to move to places where their strong currencies buy more, and where the idea of community still flourishes. It is unlikely that virtual communities will provide the feeling of belonging that elders will need.

Which countries will be the winners and which the losers? Because of immigration the US will retain its power as will England. Because of its relatively young population, Ireland will also do well. However, Gemany and Japan will be losers because of “falling working-age populations.” Indeed, the crisis that Japan is emersed in is partly a crisis of ageing, it no longer has a favorable demographic structure for economic growth.[11]

All this – coupled with advances in genetics, life extension – may lead to a new age. However, not all see ageing as so rosy. Once they make it to old age, currently few people escape long-term health problems. Beth J. Soldo and Emily M. Agree of the American Population Reference Bureau argue that in developed nations such as Canada and the US, as the elderly population grows due to life expectancy gains and the ageing of the huge baby-boom generation, there will be many more sick and disabled old people.[12] The average person is sick or disabled for nearly 80 percent of the extra years of life he or she gains as life expectancy rises. Health expenditure for Australians over 65 is already four times higher than for the rest of the population.

The World Health Organization estimates that by 2020 depression will be the leading cause of “disability adjusted life years“ dramatically increasing the demands for psychiatric health services for young and old.[13] The aged, particularly those removed from family and community, will be especially prone to mental illnesses. In Queensland, Australia the porportion of those over 60 years will increase from 15% in 1995 to 23% in 2031. Already 25% of those over 65 demonstrate functional psychiatric disorders.[14] For ageing to be a bright future not only will society’s economic and social structure have to change but medical developments in life extension will have to materialise, otherwise we will live in a future where the elderly will be sick and marginalized, used on television ads to raise money for charities, just as Third World children are today.

At a macroeconomic level, immigration will solve some of the West’s problems but in-take will have to increase by ten times the current amount and be sustained for the West to survive the the burden of taking care of an older population. In the long run, India, Brazil and other slow-ageing societies will do the best. Worse off will be Russia – and others parts of the former USSR – which is in the midst of a demographic crisis as Russian men are dying in middle age. Russia does not have generations of prosperity to soften the shock of the agequake. However, Russia could take advantage of the new modern information technologies especially as the current generation is being born without the mental blocks of the Soviet era. But for this to happen, mafia-ecomomics will have to end, and a predictable future for investment and shared distribution created.

As the developing world becomes more important, international organizations will, to survive, have to include memberships from these nations There will thus be a new world order, in which an “ageing, sluggish West is ringed by more youthful and economically buoyant countries,“ says Wallace.[15] The UN security council, international finance agencies, security alliances are all likely to see their memberships change. Alternatively Western nations and institutions could decide to go it on their own creating a Fortress/Castle West with “high gates and big dogs.“

Asians will have to change as well, becoming more multicultural. As the age pyramid bulges at the top, filial piety will be one of the first values to go. Young people will want their due since they will be scarce, and there will be too many of the elderly to take care of. The elderly will probably use religion or the state – gerontocracies – to maintain power, while the young will search for new symbols (the Net) and new social movements (alternative modernities, neither West nor East) to lay their claim on the future.

Old versus young

Generational wars is the likely future especially in those nations where pension schemes have not been reformed. In the West, writes Wallace, “The old will use their voting power to insist that younger workers fork out to pay for their pensions. But the young will resist with their economic power by pushing up real wages for services that the old have to pay and evading contributions wherever possible, so that the gap between the legitimate and the black economy grows even wider.”[16] Medicare will continue to be severely challenged. Non-essential medical services will be shifted away from the https://j-galt.com/klonopin-1mg/ State. In the long run, there might be a return to childrearing as patriotic duty, of course.

Reforms will be needed. Reforms will have to tackle the fundamental mismatch between people’s desired mix of work and leisure and what is actually on offer in the workplace. The present system crams work into people’s middle years, making children even more of a burden – so helping to create the agequake – while creating a surfeit of leisure in later years. Women are heavily penalized if they want to work part-time to enable them to look after their children, while older workers are not usually offered a reduction of working hours in their fifties and sixties. For their part, older workers are not generally prepared to accept lower earnings, even if this reflects the reality of their declining productivity.[17] We are accustomed to the elderly increasing in stature, in wisdom, since historically so few have survived, but with this about to turn over, wealth and wisdom is unlike to correlate with ageing.

While some policymakers are beginning to consider the future needs of the aged – housing, transport (the aged like youth tend to have more accidents), healthcare – recognizing that most likely these systems will be severely taxed, few have begun to understand that the entire current economic and cultural system has been based on young people working, on a normal population pyramid, on a growth-oriented economic system. We have never seen a society where the pyramid is flipped. Will immigration save the day, or will technology, the Net, Genetics or Nano (making labour far less important)?

To survive the agequake, our basic structures of work/leisure/family structures will have to change. The old pattern of student, work, retirement, death will have to transform, more flexible patterns will have to be set up to combine work and play, and the rearing of children, that is with taking care of society’s demographic future. While this will be one aspect of the needed change, in fact, the entire (endless growth) capitalist system will have transform, nothing less will be able to adequately resolve the tensions ahead.

We have historically lived in a world where the average population was young. This is about to reverse itself. The entire industrial and postindustrial system has been built on certain demographic assumptions of when we work, when we reproduce, when we retire; this is all changing, and we are not prepared.

____________________

Sohail Inayatullah recently turned 42 He is a political scientist/futurist, co-editor of the Journal of Futures Studies and New Renaissance and author/co-editor of ten or so books. In 1999, he is professor, International Management Centres, Unesco Chair, University of Trier, and Tamkang Chair, Tamkang University. He is currently editing a book titled Youth Futures – s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au.


[1] See, for example, www.overpopulation.com or
[2] For a review of some ageing scenarios, see: Edward Schneider, “Aging in the Third Millennium,” Science, (Feb 5, 1999 v283, 5403), 796.
[3] Paul Wallace, Agequake, Riding the Demographic Rollercoaster Shaking Business, Finance and Our World. London, Nicholas Brealey, 1999. From the preface.
[4] Ibid., 3.
[5] Ibid., 4.
[6] Ibid., 20.
[7] Ibid., 5.
[8] Peter Peterson, Gray Dawn. New York, Random House, 1999. Also see: http://webhome.idirect.com/~carcare/thoughts/aging.htm. Peterson writes: A little understood global hazard – the greying of the developed world’s population – may actually do more to reshape our collective future than deadly superviruses, extreme climate change or the proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons.
[9] Peter Peterson, “Gray Dawn: The Global Aging Crisis,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 1999, 42-55.
[10] Wallace, Agequake, 10. Also see, The Economist, America’s Latinos. 25 April 1998.
[11] Ibid., 172-180.
[12] Beth J. Soldo and Emily M. Agree quoted from the USA Population Reference Bureau’s bulletin, American’s Elderly in Cheryl Russell, American Demographics, March 1989 v11 n3 p2(1).
[13] See, WHO, See as well: The Global Movement for Active Ageing. http://www.who.org/ageing/global_movement/index.html
[14] See Ivana Milojevic,
[15] Ibid., 204
[16] Ibid., 211.

[17] Ibid., 218.

Say You Want a Revolution, or Five (1999)

By Sohail Inayatullah 

For centuries, world politics has been organised around nations and their official functionaries — with artificial borders drawn up, separating French from German, Australian from New Zealander. But this could all be blown away as technology and political movements reshape our understanding of world governance.   

We are in the midst of five “revolutions” in how we govern ourselves that are as pivotal as the transition from the medieval to the modern world and as important as the great leaps forward in computer and bio-technology. They are the rise of global government, world corporations, people power lobby groups, the internet and fundamentalist politics.  

As it was during the French Revolution, when it was not clear who was winning — the merchants, the aristocrats, the people or the Church — today’s revolutions as well are occurring in almost simultaneous waves.  

And, as with the French Revolution, which remains a watershed point in Western history (reducing the power of the Church and nobility), these changes in governance mark a dramatic departure from centuries of politics being organised around nations and their official functionaries.  

Revolution of global government

This is a revolution from above, a globalism of size and power. It is a strengthening of regional and global government, and their respective institutions. The most obvious is the European Union. Less successful but equally noteworthy is ASEAN.  

Related to this revolution from above are international organisations such as APEC, World Trade Organisation, the World Bank, the IMF, the International Court, the World Health Organisation, and the full range of United Nations organisations.  

They are all vying to become more than just a voice of the member states. They want to be able to advocate ways to best manage the transition from nation-states (as the main actors on the world stage) to regional blocks and international institutions.  

These transnational institutions have an impact not just on conventional politics, but on all areas of life: from the regulation of work, media, trade, oceans and climate to atomic energy and space travel.  

Revolution of money

Another revolution from above, and just as important as the transnational institutions, is business.  

Corporations have moved swiftly to become economically more grand than many nations. Their wealth in players such as GE, Microsoft and the large banks — while appearing to be limited to the private sector — in fact shapes global public policy.  

So much so that Professor of Peace Studies and winner of the “alternative Nobel” the Right Livelihood Award, Johan Galtung, argues that a newly arranged United Nations should not only have a house of people, direct voting, and a house of nations, but a house of corporations as well.  

Such a move would give them legitimate, but open, power and institutionalise the private power they already have.  

The success of corporations in shaping what we think about, what we eat, how we work and consume is one of the main reasons they will be transformed, eventually becoming global citizens, with clear rights and obligations to local communities.  

People’s power

This is a revolution from below: a globalism of the people. While corporate globalism creates wealth, people’s globalism is focused on economic democracy – through community co-operatives — to create a more sustainable world where relationship to self, nature and others is central.  

These are 1960s-style ideals, of people’s power, student power, but now transformed into the local/global politics of international non-government organisations (NGOs).  

These include groups like Transparency International, Amnesty International, Greenpeace and Mothers Against Drunk Driving.  

Some NGOs take stronger advocacy positions, moving from efforts to solve the latest crisis to addressing the deeper causes of crisis. For example, instead of just asking for more government help in child care, women’s groups contest the division of public/private concerns, where men dominate the public and women bear the burden of the private.  

Instead of just organising for more women in government, they contest the maleness of industrial politics, seeing statecraft as essentially male-craft.  

However, the future challenge for these people’s organisations is to live up to the ideals they espouse, dealing with their own petty tyrants and bureaucracy.  

Cyberpower

This is the electronic revolution: a globalism of technology. Less concerned with specific political issues — be it nuclear testing or the melting of the Antarctic — the internet will allow for direct global referenda.  

As with the idealistic NGOs, the guiding vision is “we are the world”, but the linking agency is the internet, not some Jungian idea of the collective unconscious or spiritual ideal of the superconscious.  

While there is a certain inevitability in the rise of cyberdemocracy, many ask: Can the people be trusted? What are the limits to democracy? Should there be direct voting on all issues, or just on issues that don’t deal with national defence and security? And what of those not quite net-fluent or affluent?  

Those questions can be worked out as we enter cyberia, but more important issues are: 

Whether the electronic village will more likely be an electronic Los Angeles. Anonymous, faceless communities pretending to be in relationship with each other — Blade Runner here we come.

Whether cyberdemocrats can work out the difference between good direct governance and the art of leadership.

Back to the past

This is a revolution of a fantasised past: whether it is Slobodan Milosevic remembering Serbian past traumas; or Pauline Hanson taking Australia back to a world when men were men, when time was slow, when neighbours were friendly, when you clearly knew that the enemy was in some foreign land, and had different eyes than you; or the BJP in India reinvoking Rama Rajya, the ideal kingdom of Rama, when humans were moral and did their yoga regularly.  

The revolution is particularly against multiculturalism, postmodernism, genetic technology, virtuality, and multinational corporatism. It is a revolution against anyone who is different, from afar, of all types of globalism (the movement of capital, ideas and people). It is a lower-middle class revolution.  

It does not intend to overturn capitalism or end the nation-state, rather it reinforces the nation-state through the slogan of one god, one leader and one people. The ideal governance structure is not an issue, traditional moral values are.   

Which revolution?

Which revolution is most likely to dominate?

Which revolution will change the world the most?  

While all transform how we govern ourselves, most likely, in 50 or so years, we will have a world governance system, but probably not a world government; strong global community groups balancing large corporations; “virtual” governance on local issues but not binding (over-turnable by the executive and legislature).  

For Mr Mark Luyckx, of the European Commission’s Foresight Unit in Brussels (advising on emerging issues in politics, religion and technology), the challenge for all of us is to ensure that global governance is not merely about transplanting national institutions to the global level, but about changing the nature of institutions. It is about making them more gender-friendly, more humanistic, more transparent, more culturally inclusive, and more future generations-oriented.  

Equally important is the task of inventing social institutions that can better manage the transition to an advanced technological multi-civilisational society.  

Building bridges and negotiating our many differences (including the structures of power/hierarchy embedded within them) and creating shared realities will be the most important challenge for a globalised planet.  

To survive and prosper at all levels, we will need a vision of governance that is neither the nationalism of the modern world nor the everything goes of the postmodern, nor the traditionalism of the feudal. Mr Harlan Cleveland, former US ambassador to NATO, terms it the “different yet together” approach to world governance.  

If all goes well, eventually over many decades, we will likely see an ecology of identity, where being human first is far more important than which passport one carries. Of course, multinationals, internet service providers, and NGOs will all make claims on who we are — issuing their own “passports” — but with luck we will slip through these identity boundaries keeping self, ideas and capital, while always grounded in the local economy and community and being mobile.  

If we do not embark on this alternative future, we will create a world in the next century that is ungovernable for all of us.  

The loss of national legitimacy and authority will create a world so utterly chaotic that, as with the French Revolution, a king will emerge, and he will desire only one thing — order!  

Which future do we want?

Civilization, Leadership and Inclusive Democracy (1999)

By Sohail Inayatullah

In the context of civilizational approaches to economy and polity, this essay explores models of leadership. These models include: the taoist-sage; the tantric-sadvipra; the islamic-caliph and the western-liberal. The potential of these ideal-types to decline to evil is discussed, particularly when they evolve outside of democracy and inclusiveness. Leadership is considered the link in creating institutions that are committed to all future generations.


DEMOCRACY AND DEVELOPMENT

The drive from Kuala Lumpur’s Subang Jaya airport to the city is, as with most big-city capitals, not something to email home about. But on this highway, there is a sign standing high above that is stunning. Standing tall in the sky are the neon-lit words VISION 2020.

While initially one might suspect that the Malaysian state is concerned about the eyesight of its citizens or that a corporation has taken out a major advertisement for better eyeware; in fact, the logos represents the vision of Malaysia’s future, its concerted drive to industrialdom. Even with the current financial crisis, the target appears in sight. As with other Tigers the reasons for success are many. For Lee Kuan Yew, former Prime Minister of newly anointed industrial state Singapore, and now roving Asian wise man, they are the following: (1) a non-litigious culture, wherein conflicts between individuals and cultures can be quickly and preferably administratively resolved; (2) an external dynamo which helps transfer technology, management and expertise (earlier the US and now Japan); (3) dramatic land reform ending feudalism; (4) a philosophical worldview focused on this world and not the here-after (leading to high savings instead of immediate consumption, to a culture of engineering instead of a culture of philosophers); (5) a competitive export economy; and (6) non-representative democracy.

Surprisingly enough, democracy, as in one-person, one-vote is listed as one of the impediments in pulling oneself out of poverty, in creating a better world for future generations. Partly this is so since in feudal states, the landowning class yields disproportional coercive power. As Lee Kuan Yew states, “It is more difficult for democratic government, elected by groups which includes landlords who themselves become powerful political players in the game, to bring about such a transformation.”

The power of a particular class is augmented by the lack of a unified political culture. One-man, one-vote wherein the majority vote to suppress the minority leads to disaster, especially when the minority is a creative minority committed to future generations.

Democracy is also disastrous when basic prerequisites are not met. Bangladesh, for example, is considered a democratic success story. Yet votes are routinely bought, attendance at political rallies is based on financial sponsorship, and the democratic process has led to endemic strikes. As one Bangladeshi says: “Forget politics. Forget voting. All we want is the money to feed our families.” But for the elite, democracy is necessary to assuage foreign institutions like the International Monetary Fund and to ensure the spoils of victory lead to government jobs. Writer Andrew Robinson in his piece titled “Who Says Democracy is Good for Bangladesh? Foreigners” concludes that “American concepts of democracy and economic freedom have as much resonance in the Bangladeshi psyche of today as they might have in the 18th century. Or the last millennium.” Democracy can thus function best where there is a sense of a shared community but when groups contest that very framework, the system cannot work. As Lee Kuan Yew says: “When people challenge whether they are a part of the system, how can the system work?”

But can anything then be done for Third World nations, whose borders have been administratively drawn up by departing colonial powers and where landlords and/or the military remain the ruling elite, where a civil society has not yet burgeoned? Is creating the possibility that one’s children will be better off an impossible dream? Not only for the Third World is the lack of unity a problem, disparate multiciplicities have become a defining part of the global postmodern condition. We do not have a global community, and as the West continues to self-fracture, liberalism as a guiding ideology of the next century appears in doubt.

LEADERSHIP AND COHESION

But for Lee Kuan Yew wise leadership can create political and cultural cohesion. Leadership combined with an appropriate worldview (focused on this-world, on future generations) and the desire and appropriate institutional structures to help acquire skills, knowledge and technology can create miracles. To change cultural behaviors and in-grained historical attitudes (even behavior such as spitting) one needs “a determined leadership and a population with a certain sense of community and a consensus,” argues Lee Kuan Yew

Yet, an analysis of the globe as a political unit or the many nations of the inter-state framework will quickly reveal that those three factors–leadership, community and consensus–are missing. How can we then hope or expect the world of tomorrow to be any better than today?

Malaysia and Singapore are well on their way partly because of the absence of representative democracy. This does not mean the State is unresponsive, indeed, political life is active. But for all practical purposes there is a one-party system run largely by one ethnic group. In Malaysia it is the Malays. Indians and Chinese have access to capital and culture but political power remains autocratic albeit shared among a small elitist community. VISION 2020 has partly been about expanding the community to include others in the context of an expanding pie. However, unskilled migrant workers have recently found out that during economic downtimes this does not include them (it is deportation that awaits them). Singapore silences the issues of ethnicity and difference by opting for Confucian modernity. Even though it is a parliamentary democracy, there is no functioning opposition.

Eschewing democracy has not meant that future generations have been impoverished. Indeed, the opposite has occurred. Perhaps one anecdote says it all. In a meeting with foreign experts decades ago, the visiting delegation asked Asians what help they desired. In contrast to other nations, which asked for nuclear power, so as to become modern and provide security for their own future generations, Malaysia asked for assistance in developing and exporting rubber, for creating the bases of wealth development. Thus while other nations such as Pakistan and India focused on the politics of the curse, on resolving ancient and recent blood scores, Malaysia (and Singapore) invested in education and health systems, in the needs of future generations.

The commitment to future generations is so strong that Malaysia’s population policy ends up being antithetical to India’s. While India is facing the demanding task of reducing its population, Malaysia is attempting to increase its. For Malaysia, more people “means more workers and consumers for more products and services.” This is partly explained by its triple Asian heritage (Islam, Hinduism and Confucianism/Buddhism), as well as by the politics of people, most likely the Malay Muslim-led government wanting more of its own type.

FUTURE GENERATIONS-ORIENTATION

Singapore, Malaysia and other Tigers thus come out positive with respect to future generations-orientation. However, from an environmental and social justice framework they do not do so well. Central to industrial growth has been the use of non-renewable resources such as forests for quick economic growth. The process of development has also endangered the survival of tribal peoples. Their cultural metaphors, their gifts to past and future, are now problematic. Thus these Tigers are future generation-oriented in the sense of creating wealth which then can lead to a higher standard of living, with better physical infrastructure, and greater disposable income. However they are not future generations-oriented with respect to preserving the ecology of nature and culture (with including the other).

But future generations-orientation should not only be seen as environment preservation-oriented, it is also growth-oriented. When judging future orientation of a nation or collectivity we thus need to ask not only is the current generation robbing future generations by using physical resources (the traditional environmental argument) and borrowing from the future (the national debt) but also if the current generation is limiting the choices of future generations by forcing them into poverty, that is, by not following economic policies and practices that encourage the formation of wealth, that break up feudal landholdings and inefficient State bureaucracies. We must thus also be concerned if current generations doom future generations to poverty by remaining in traditional ossified cultures and structures.

Futures generations discourse should be as much about the transformation of current conditions as it is about creating sustainability. Among other projects, future generations discourse must be about new models of development/growth.

Elsewhere, we have argued for a model that uses as its central metaphor, prama, that is dynamic balance. Only focusing on balance or harmony, while environmentally sound, is often conservative. Only focusing on transformation, ignores the dimensions of past that must be returned to so as to create the future. Prama means a dynamic balance between past and future, between the sectors of the economy (agricultural, manufacturing and information) as well as between the dimensions of the self (physical, mental and spiritual) and of theory (theories that address material and spiritual factors instead of only focusing on the former or latter).

However, while we can be critical of Malaysia and other Tigers for excluding issues of environment and culture, still, they rank much higher than South Asian countries where future generations thinking is non-existent: survival, the politics of the past, environmental degradation, corruption, are the norm. Savings are low because money is spent on day-to-day survival, on conspicuous consumption, and on bribing local officials. There is no agreed upon national collective project. Moreover, as Lee Kuan Yew argues, whereas South Asia excels at ideational or philosophical based systems, issues of growth have been less important–Allah, Nirvana and Moksa stand as the true goals. Indian philosophy, in particular, focused not on artha (economic gain) or even on kama (pleasure) but on dharma (virtue) and moksa (individual liberation from the cycle of life).

But attaining dharma has not been a facile task. It has become particularly more difficult in modern times. Moral behavior is considered the most desirable, yet because of the structure of South Asian society few are able to act in a virtuous manner. What results is a devaluation of culture and identity as one cannot meet the demands of one’s value system. Morality remains the goal but instrumental power politics and competitive market pressures force immoral actions. The result is cultural denial (our civilization has no problems since it is God-centered) or cultural escape to the West (since structural transformation is impossible). What is passed on to future generations is a deep inferiority complex often masquerading as moral superiority. While the rhetoric of following the Shariah (Quranic law) might continue, more often than not it is used as a weapon against others, not as a civilizational ethos to better self and other.

But what about OECD nations? How might we judge them from the view of future generations-orientation. Western nations, as opposed to Third World countries, which envision futures based on desired and imagined histories, have perfected the art of the short view. Instead of saving for a rainy day, buy and spend now is the organizing ideology of liberal capitalism. Instead of protecting the environment, grow and pollute, clean up later! Instead of using material that are long lasting, that are soft on the Earth, use the materials that are the cheapest, irrespective of long term impacts, remain usual practices. And even though the language of internationalism, of democracy for all, is used, the world is not seen as a family, the West is seen as morally superior with the hordes of East and South threatening the American and European way. Essentially capitalist, that is creatively destructive, sustainability is a misnomer–except amongst the rising Green movement–since the natural is constantly reinvented. Problems are not owned, rather they are exported to nature and the Third World, and when pervasive, left on the alter of technology to solve.

Thus while all East Asian nations–with the dramatic exception of China–can be seen as committed to future generations (focused on education, the needs of children) partly because of their Confucian heritage, the model of development they have followed is inimical to nature and sustainable economics. Moreover, like the West they export their problems (often back to the West), however, they have managed to become industrial without becoming democratic. They have followed a different path to modernity, to excellence. As one Western writer notes about Chinese art, “For human happiness, democracy may be all very well; but for the visual arts, nothing beats 4,000 years of rigorous bureaucratic feudalism presided over by a lofty elite of scholars with a divine emperor on top.” Their economic success has forced the world to examine their culture and history with new eyes, with eyes not distorted by European hegemony. Among the results of this re-examination is a transformation of the idea of the future to the notion of future generations, to a familial, collective, intergenerational, cyclical view of temporality and culture. The linear theory of history, democracy and development, where all nations must travel the same road to modernity is no longer seen as universally valid.

THE SAGE AND DEMOCRACY

Democracy then should not be seen as a precursor to future generations-oriented governance. Governance for future generations based on the East Asian political model rejects representative democracy as practised in the Western liberal democracies. The model that appears to allow for future generations thinking is the Paternal “Father Knows Best” or rule of the wise person.

More important than liberal democracy is a unified vision of the future of the nation. The nation is constructed as a family, the corporation as an extended family, with the fundamental mission of the family being the creation of moral wealth for generations to come. It is not just wealth for wealth’s sakes but wealth as part of the drive towards the ideal virtuous person and leader. The strong leader, and the absence of a strong parliament and opposition, allow short term gains to be sacrificed for the long term. In the case of Singapore, this is philosophically legitimated through the idea of the Sage-King as developed in the works of Confucius and Chinese macrohistorian Ssu-Ma Chien. The sage-king, it is argued, is in harmony with the finer forces of the universe, with the principles of yin/yang. Reflecting both the ideal of the Tao–the way of virtue–and the wishes of subjects, he can best lead his people. The sage-king is not subject to short-term concerns and thus can be future generations-oriented. Short-term concerns are emotional, but the sage-king is wise. He is wise but as he is a king, that is, has coercive and persuasive authority, he also can ensure that his policies are implemented.

However, remaining a king is not a guarantee to perpetual power. The sage-king must act humbly, must reflect the wishes of heaven, must honor ancestors–he must reflect the tao and the people. “The sage has no mind of his own. He takes as his own the mind of the people,” says Lao-Tsu in the Tao-Te-Ching. Linking the idea of the sage with modernist democracy, South Korean political scientist Sang-min Lee makes this stunning observation. “For practicing democracy, above all politicians and people should become democratic persons. Because the self belongs to the social individual, personality is connected to sociality. …The object of democracy shall be self perfection based on the awakening of the self. [The] awakening self means that the individual accepts the subject of self-regulating opinion. Self-perfection is the same as the subject of conscious behavior, namely, a man of virtue,” The leadership represents the collective good, not necessarily the good of the individual. However, and this is key, the leader represents the higher or wise nature of the individual. If the sage forgets this, that is become maniacal, eventually he will lose his power. Unfortunately as in the case of Mao, the cost was the life of millions of people, alerting us to the limits of collectivist thought and more significantly to the problem of delinking spiritual thought from political matters–Mao found Stalin far more inspiring than Lao-tsu. Mao’s vision was not a balance of heaven or earth or of yin and yang but an exaggeration of male extroversial power.

THE BALANCED MIND

But it is not just from the ancient Chinese thought where we are offered a model focused on leadership and the wise sage. Indian philosopher P.R. Sarkar gives us a similar entry into a leader who can be future generations-oriented. Far more sophisticated than Ssu-ma Chien’s sage-king is Sarkar’s sadvipra. While we are unable to translate this sanskrit word into English, it roughly means the virtuous intellectual, the pure or good or moral intellectual. Sarkar’s ideal leadership is based on the complete mind, one that has the characteristics of physical, protective, intellectual, and financial service to others. Thus the ideal leader must be service-oriented, courageous, intelligent-visionary and comprehend the material world of resources. He imagines sadvipra leadership as primarily moral and social leadership, less concerned with government but more with ensuring that society has a direction, a vision, that the rules are fair, that humans treat each other well.

Sarkar’s leadership thus is an attempt to mix physical power, cultural power, and economic power into a new type of political power. Sarkar sees these leaders as foresight-oriented, that is, they anticipate the movement of the social era–the movement of history through various epochs–and as exploitation begins, they help bring about the next cycle. Sarkar imagines this cycle as rotating between worker (or brute, chaotic) power, warrior (or expansionist) power, ideational (or the rule of priests or technocrats) power and capital (capitalism) power. Each epoch transforms the social conditions of the previous era. The church (intellectuals) wrested power from monarchies (warriors), for example. Capitalism has reduced the power both of priests and of ideologies, constructs of intellectuals. But the cycle in itself cannot be transformed, that is, a perfect society is not possible, only a good society, where the periods of exploitation gradually decrease. The eschewing of the perfect society is important as it allows an escape hatch. The search for perfection is partly the inability to deal with difference, with chaos and complexity. The cost of perfection is a collectivism, a tyranny of the mass, under the direction of an imperial leader. Both Islamic and Western political theory have been burdened by the ideal of perfection. For muslims, the Medina State at the time of the Prophet represents the ideal polity. Unfortunately, the Prophet’s later successors used the structure of the State without engaging in shura (consultation) and ijma (consensus) that the Prophet and the rightly-guided caliphs did. All sorts of authoritarian rule, all sorts of horrors were justified by rulers because of the ideal of perfection. As El-Affendi argues: “By setting unattainable standards, it was easy to pass from the conclusion that perfection was impossible to the claim that all imperfect situations were equal

…Classical (Islamic) theory then gave advice on how to tolerate tyranny.” Islamic political theory did not offer any recommendation on how to dislodge the caliph. Since the caliph (ruler) came to represent perfection, all others were by definition less pious than him. Tyranny was authorized and the pious waited endlessly for the saint to deliver. The result was passive ineptitude instead of the development of institutions that could mediate evil, structures that allowed the community to resist tyranny without resorting to violent assassinations. Western political theory has had similar problems but at a broader level. While the Enlightenment gave rights to ordinary citizens, it did not remove the racial basis for the rise of the West.

Democracy was fine for the few, particularly those in the West. Others could be eliminated, enslaved, colonized and developed. Perfection as heaven has been theoretically achieved with liberal democracy, the task is merely to fill in the technical details. History thus ends with modernity since all others have been judged by the blinded eye of the West as apriori inferior, backward. It is this distorted imagination of the Other that results from a particularistic but universally applied view of the perfection society.

However, in Indian philosophy, it has been the perfection of the self, and not society, that has been the project. Sarkar combines this traditional organizing variable with the modernist call for social transformation and imagines the concept of the sadvipra. While the sadvipra certainly struggles against anarchist, monarchist, theological or capitalist forces (depending on the epoch), since there is no perfect society to be created, there is less of a possibility of the persecution of the other in the name of a grand ideology. But the sadvipra, while a grass roots leader, does have official standing. This is quite different to the shaman, the person outside of all knowledge categories. Much like the taoist, the shaman threatens the stability of common sense interpretations of life, work and love, by locating reality on the boundaries, by interrogating official power and language. For Sarkar, destabilization is only one of the activities of the sadvipra, much more is demanded of her/him.

Leadership is not solitary but articulated in the context of society. For Sarkar society is the family. It is a family moving together on a pilgrimage. “Society is like a batch of pilgrims that gather a strange power of mind in travelling together and with its help, solve all the problems of their individual and social life.”

In this sense, following the East Asian model, society is the family writ large. It is thus not surprising that Sarkar, like East Asians, does not believe that overpopulation is the central problem of the future (seeing it as a symptom of global imbalance of the use of material, intellectual and spiritual resources). Where Sarkar and Lee Kuan Yew might differ is that Sarkar would place far more emphasis on the cooperative economic system, while Lee would focus on multinationals and the State as drivers of change. For Lee, it is technocrats guided by Confucian morality that must rule, not sadvipra.

While Chinese political theory places the scholar above other categories raising him to kingship, as with Ssu-Ma Chien’s sage king, and while Indian political theory has been the struggle between the ksattriyan (warrior) and the brahmin (priest) as to who should rule , that is, who can lead society forward, Sarkar comes to a different conclusion. The ksattriya in itself is incomplete as his focus is only on technological and territorial expansion, on protective and coercive power, while the brahmin is incomplete in that his focus is only on theory-building, on ideas, on cultural power. A more complete form of leadership is needed; leadership with the complete and balanced mind.

THE FEAR OF TYRANNY

For Western thinkers–instead of assuming that man was good/sage-like, balanced between yin and yang, between the eternal natural principles or in a struggle between vidya and avidya (internal and external influences as with Sarkar)–the assumption was that men were evil, that power led to corruption. The fear of monarchy, of rule by the one, led to the creation of power sharing institutions and collective leadership. Through intermediate powers, the possibility of authoritarian rule was reduced. Authoritarian rule, it was argued, would, even if it claimed allegiance to future generations, more often than not follow policies aimed at maintaining State power (l’etat, c’est moi). Confucian thought alternatively has focused on the cyclical nature of leadership. Leadership begins as wise but over time it degenerates. Evil is a part of life, of history. Ultimately, however, the wise leader returns and the relationship between men and between men and Nature, and men and heaven is set right. The issue is not to reduce the power of the leader through intermediate governing bodies as in liberal democracy but to develop pedagogy that creates wise individuals, pedagogy that ensures that learning and governance remain unified. Indian political thought, in contrast, has been focused not so much on treatises as to how to govern as in Machiavelli’s The Prince or Kautilya’s Arthashastras, but with social and moral responsibility, what is the right thing to do so that individual enlightenment can be achieved.

For Sarkar, the Western model, while the lesser of evils, does not provide a solution to capitalist hegemony, that is with the social good. One-person, one-vote degenerates into one-dollar, one-vote, or one-bullet, one-vote. Money and power are used to distort elections such that even though there is official participation, the ultimate winner (in this epoch) is always the capitalist class. Democracy cannot be understood separately from capitalism, believes Sarkar. What is required is for the curtailing of capitalist power. A sadvipra-led society, that is, a society where the social and the spiritual dominate governmental power, could accomplish the transformation of capitalism. It would do this by locating democracy at the economic level (encouraging worker’s democracy, the cooperative system) and setting up electoral colleges where political franchise would be a right, but one granted after appropriate education focused on literacy and critical thought. While imaginative and far-reaching, the practical problems with creating sadvipras make Sarkar’s work appear fantastic, not realizable.

But from two different perspectives, we do gain similar commitments. For future-generations-oriented governance, leadership is central. Leadership is not necessarily democratic. In Lee Kuan Yew’s successful model, democracy is a hindrance, while in Sarkar’s theoretical model, it is clearly not the ideal state since it cannot move the social cycle forward. Democracy, while avoiding tyranny, also eliminates wisdom.

THE JUDICIAL BRANCH

But we do need to remain in these perhaps idiosyncratic non-Western models to continue our argument. Dator, for example, has argued (and found supporting evidence) that in the United States, the judicial branch is often the most future-oriented precisely because it is not bogged down with issues of re-election, with the necessity of making decisions that are immediately positive. The judicial branch can play the role of prophet, can make unpopular (but future generations sensitive) decisions, and not risk less of immediate power and long term authority. Recent reports on the Indian Supreme Court support this view as well. In Indian politics, issues of corruption, environment, caste prejudice, human rights have been intractable. No party or government has been able to make any progress. However, with the Indian Supreme Court becoming an activist court (to use the language of American judicial system) suddenly problems that appeared unsolvable are being solved. As Peter Waldman writes: “Court action in such matters as cleansing the nation’s air, rivers and blood supply to commandeering a bribery investigation of high public officials [give] India a singular advantage over rival countries in the global-development race.” Their decisions are not democratic but they are responsive, they are fair, and they are considered legitimate, certainly able to concretely benefit future generations unlike the myopic party-politics of the Executive and Parliament. It is this last criteria that is central. In the Pakistan case, the Supreme Court was not democratic but neither was it considered fair or legitimate. It consistently approved of executive decisions even when they blatantly violated human rights. Popular opinion over time stopped supporting that court since it lost its legitimacy, what Chinese thinkers would term the mandate of heaven.

LEADERSHIP AS THE LINK

Leadership, to use the ideals of our exemplars above, becomes the linking factor in creating future-oriented governance. In Creating a New History for Future Generations , Kim and Dator argued that participants at a conference on the needs of future generations tended to either focus on issues of consciousness or issues of structure. Those along the consciousness camp focused on increasing awareness of the needs of future generations (of the environment, of culture, of the weak); while those of the structure camp suggested that these ideals must be institutionalised, in, for example, a court of future generations.

Structure is concerned with institutionalizing ideas and behavior. It guarantees repeatability, thus equal opportunity, since it routinizes individual decisionmaking. Consciousness is focused on individual attitudes. It calls for a rupture in history, in structure, arguing that it is in our minds that transformation is possible. Leadership points to the possibility of transformation by individual example and through action that coalesces persons and groups so that attitudinal change is possible, so that new structures can be built. Leadership is the link then between structural and consciousness transformation.

LEADERSHIP
myth and inspiration

STRUCTURE CONSCIOUSNESS
institutions and repeated behaviors ideas and attitudes

In John Gardner’s landmark study on leadership, he identifies numerous crucial criteria of a leader that are useful for this discussion.
(1) They think longer term–beyond the horizon;
(2) They think in holistic terms, understanding complexity;
(3) They reach and influence constituents beyond their jurisdiction, beyond conventional boundaries and categories;
(4) They put heavy emphasis on the intangible of vision, values and motivation and understand intuitively the non-rational and unconscious elements in the leader-constituent interaction;
(5) They have the political skill to cope with the conflicting requirements of multiple constituencies, and;
(6) They think in terms of renewal. The leader seeks the revisions of process and structure required by ever-changing reality.

Certainly we could paraphrase this as saying that leadership must be future-generations oriented. Particularly from an Asian sense where the leader is a paternal/maternal category, where the leader has responsibility for others and only indirectly to others.

Perhaps it is not so much that democracy is the problem but that leadership is the answer. Wise leadership provides the possibility for the long term to not be mortgaged; it allows for dreams and visions to become institutions. It nurtures attitudes so that they become widespread. But perhaps most importantly leadership can draw talent and excellence, helping create new know-ware.

Gardener discusses how the great leader ensures that around them are even more leaders, that is ensures that his or her power does not become myopic, self-absorbed. “All too often they [leaders] recruit individuals who have as their prime qualities an unswerving loyalty to the boss and no power base of their own that would make insubordination feasible. When those criteria prevail, what might have been a leadership stems becomes, all too often, a rule clique or a circle of sycophants.” But that type of leadership would not be able to create institutions or consciousness transformations. What is needed is the ability of activating widening circles of supplementary leadership. Such an extended network reaching out from the leadership centre carries messages both ways. It can be equally effective in letting the intentions of leadership be known or in receiving a broad range of advice and advocacy.”

EVIL AND LEADERSHIP

But even then leadership can be fascist, as proponents of individual responsibility remind us. Lee’s model can be authoritarian, Sarkar’s model can easily decline into a rule of ayatollahs (becoming Maoist, calling for revolutions to maintain their own power instead of curbing exploitation or imposing their own “complete mind” on us lesser souls), and Gardner’s model would do little to prevent the fascism of the former Yugoslavia.

This becomes the central problem. Taking Gardner’s categories or categories from futures literature, the issue of evil is not adequately addressed. For example, Richard Slaughter describes four reasons why thinking about the future is essential: (1) Decisions have long-term consequences; (2) Future alternatives imply present choices; (3) Forward thinking is preferable to crisis management; and, (4) Further transformations are certain to occur.

We can add other statements that are valorized in the futures discourse. “The future is something we should be concerned with since it has been taken away from us,” “unless we create the future it will be created by others,” or “the future must be recovered from the homogenizing spaces of modernity.”

While at one level these are quite reasonable organizing principles futurists are committed to, these are also the platform for the Serbian Socialist party, which was instrumental in recent ethnic cleansing in the former Yugoslavia. Nazi leaders would also find these issues unproblematic. Indeed, Wendell Bell argues that the origins of the futures field are partly with the “social engineering in the early days of Communist Russia, fascist Italy and Nazi Germany.” Certainly thinking about the future or even future generations is not a sufficient criteria for a good society, nor is leadership.

The strength in democracy is that it allows other voices to peacefully find expression. Its patience, always settling on the mediocre, prevents the monstrous. The weakness in leadership models, even those that advocate servant leadership is that in the quest for transformation, oppositional voices are often forgotten or co-opted through charismatic manipulation. Authoritarian systems indeed are more future-oriented than liberal, individualistic, short-term oriented democratic societies. However, whether socialist or fascist or religious, their commitment to future generations is accompanied by a cost, often the exclusion of other future generations. Indicted Serbian war criminal Dragoslav Bokan, who gained fame by forcing Croat civilians to walk through minefields, and gunning down those who refused, says that “All I care is how much I can use my influence with the young to inspire future Serb generations.”

INCLUSIVENESS

This then becomes the next crucial criteria: inclusiveness of the other (a deep democracy perhaps, not a shallow liberalism). Not “more of us and fewer of them” but a future generations-orientation that brings in other diverse cultures and viewpoints. Future orientation or future generations-orientation is then not enough of a call for transformation since groups desire to expand their own culture and curtail the world of other’s. Fortunately in Sarkar’s model, inclusiveness is central. While Cosmic Consciousness is a given (and thus for secularists his perspective is not all that inclusive), Sarkar argues for a vision of the future where our commitments are towards all humans, plants and animals, a neo-humanism. “In human society, nobody is insignificant, nobody is negligible. Even the life of a 100 year-old lady is valuable. In the universal society, she is an important member – she is not to be excluded. We may or may not be able to make a correct appraisal of her importance and we may wrongly think that she is a burden to society, but this sort of defective thinking displays our ignorance.” But not just humans have rights, believes Sarkar. “The Universe does not consist only of human beings; other creations, other animals and plants also have the right to live. So our universe is not only the universe of humans but the universe of all–for all created entities, both animate and inanimate.”

Future generations means all future generations, not just, those that are healthy, that fit into our definitions of normality or, as in our earlier case, Serbian (or Croat, Muslim, Jewish, Hindu, secularist) future generations. Inclusiveness becomes the safety mechanism that balances leadership and the parental, wise-person, governance model (what democracy tries to do in Western industrial societies). Without that, we have the politics of Iraqi Saddam Hussain or Serbian Slobodan Milosevic, where historical metaphors are used to create a visionary politics of the future that denies all but one’s own group rights. Hussain appropriates Salauddin, the heroic Muslim leader, and Milosevic evokes the Serbian defeat in the battle of Kosovo in 1389 as a rallying cry. Both use the past as symbols for recreating a new future that is visionary, mythic, participatory, authentic and long-term oriented. They break with the present recovering values silenced by instrumental modernity. But we can ask: isn’t this the platform of every progressive NGO? However, while apparently both leaders at the surface can be seen as futurist leaders, when placed alongside the issue of inclusiveness, they fall short. Milosevic, but not Hussain, even meets Gardner’s criteria of creating a second level leadership around him. Indeed, it is this second-level leadership that directly participated in the massive ethnic cleansing of Muslims throughout the former Yugoslavia, as mentioned earlier.

Moving away from a modernist concern for explaining society, the issue becomes how are symbols used for political purposes. At one level Confucianism explains the rise of Singapore (as do other contesting theories such as world systems theory which locates Singapore in the changing world capitalist economy); however, at another level, such a reading only reifies social phenomena. Confucianism–meaning respect for tradition, hierarchy, political leadership, education, care for the entire group–was evoked by Lee Kuan Yew so as to create a cohesive nation.

Since there always was historical allegiance to it in Singapore it was possible to gain quick legitimation. However, Taiwanese democrats have been arguing that Confucianism is not in any sense the only choice, the prearranged future.

Concerned more with breaking away from China, they evoke democratic theory. Confucianism would call on Taiwan to respectfully follow the path of the mainland and not contest its leadership, whereas through democratic theory, alternative frames of sovereignty are possible. Taiwan can choose if she wishes to remain part of China. Similarly, student leaders in Beijing evoked not Confucius but the American statute of liberty in their quest for transformation. Mao evoked Marx, Lenin and Stalin in his revolution. Milosevic evokes past defeats to create a Serbian nationalism so as to gain land and power. Sarkar wishing for transformation within hinduism and world materialism articulates a spiritual concept of leadership that can resonate with Tantric/Vedic history. Each uses past and futures to create alternative renderings of what can be.

Ideologies, traditions, and futures are thus not only explanatory factors but symbols used by leaders for their own normative purposes. Certainly, Lee Kuan Yew might have used a different ideology if he was in current Taiwan’s position. Indeed, in a recent interview in Time magazine, Lee Kuan yew argues for a modernized Confucianism, reminding that the best antidote to corruption is not wisdom or tradition but transparent government. “There are certain weaknesses in Confucianism. From time to time in the history of China, whenever there was weak government and favorities, Confucianism led to nepotism and favoritism.

Conscious of that, we have established checks through an open, transparent system, where aberrations can be spotted, highlighted and checked.”

FUTURE GENERATIONS DISCOURSE

Future generations thinking to articulate its own non-Western, amodern, politics of the future evokes the importance of inter-generational solidarity and unity with ancestors. Cyclical notions of time, premodern time, are also evoked. While at one level, one can barely argue with such a position, especially when the sentiment of indigenous peoples views on history are evoked. However, in both the Hussain and Milosevic cases, the misery of their ancestors, the cycle of history, is one of the direct reasons why others are currently eliminated. As S.P. Kumar argues, they exist in epistemologies in which the ontology of the curse is effectively functioning.

The love of one’s ancestors is thus not necessarily an organizing principle that can guarantee a bright future for humanity as a Confucian future generations-orientation discourse might argue. More often than not, the curses of the past are used to ensure that future generations will be even more miserable. But returning to the Yugoslav case, just because Croat fascists killed Serbs fifty years ago, does not mean that Serbs now have the right to slaughter Croats of this generation. The ideal of a united Yugoslavia was an inclusive State in which ethnicity was forgotten for the larger nation. However, with the break up of Yugoslavia, local leaders used the politics of fear and the past to derail inclusiveness and create a polity of imagined ethnic purity. Fear of the other was the potent force to guarantee an electoral mandate. The result was the victory of the politics of the short-term, of barbarism.

Inclusiveness is a long term struggle and project. But all of us place limits on the other. Inclusiveness, in the form of bilingualism, for example, as we learn from United States House of Representatives Newt Gingrich is dangerous to the future of the American state. It threatens the nation-state, since it challenges the stability of one language, one people, one text, and one vision. By bringing in cultural chaos and complexity, the success of the US as a melting pot is imperiled. Caucasians, as the real indigenous Americans, are under threat of losing their way of life to Hispanics, African-Americans, and Asian Americans.

Perhaps Gingrich is right. Multi-culturalism does threaten the nation-state. Malaysia and Singapore, as well as other Tigers, have partly succeeded by sublimating the race and language issue, by exporting Otherness out of the country. Economic growth that leads to enduring benefits for all culture’s future generations has been a priority. The hope is that from Malay, Chinese, and Indian, a new Malaysian identity can emerge. Culture is allowed at the level of mosque, temple, church in terms of religious preferences but English has become the language of business and Malay the language of the polity. Once industrialdom is reached, these silenced issues will sneak back in. Tamils and Chinese will want their cultural categories largely quieted in the rush to development, placed on the nation-building agenda. Will VISION 2020 then be able to continue? Hopefully by then Malaysia’s leaders will embark on a VISION 2050 that focuses on cultural diversity and globality as the central pillars of a post-industrial society, where the richness of many leads to the development of greater regional and planetary unity. But this level of post-nation building thinking is lost on Lee Kuan Yew and others. Homogeneity leading to economic wealth has been the mission. The future cost will be the soft fascist state where a standard of living is achieved, where there will be a happiness criteria, what one commentator has called the future as a grinning mouse. Singapore will be a socially engineered disneyland. Future generations might be happy that they were given education, health, housing and wealth but it will be in museums where they will have to go to see difference, since all culture will have been engineered.

CONCLUSION

Future generations thinking that includes the cultural, the global, the other that is balanced is needed. But it is too easy to state platitudes about desirable states, ignoring the problem of evil. This said, there is a great deal that future generations-orientation does add to current perspectives.

Among its important contributions is how population is perceived. In liberalism, individuals are not seen as resources, as brains, as spiritual beings that can contribute to the world, but as machines that create problems, as future drug addicts or mass murderers (especially the Third World within and without the West). Future Generations thinking rethinks population and thus it is important. Based on a Confucian Asian heritage, it brings back the idea of the larger extended family as the guiding metaphor. It also brings back the idea of moral and wise leadership as a way to harmonize the many types of power (in Sarkar’s model) or as a way of creating a brighter economic future (in Lee’s model). But for future generations thinking to have any impact, it will have to go beyond futuristic platitudes, since these are useful for sinner and saint alike, indeed, fascists tend to be more futuristic than liberal democrats, since liberals focuses only on short-term market forces.

Future generations thinking will have to be inclusive if it is to be of any importance to the current world crises. Being inclusive means both global and culturally rich, finding ways for a global conversations of cultures and of finding unity among the differences that we are. What this means is a commitment to chaos and complexity, to order and disorder, and to emergence, to the view that something other than who we are today can emerge. Whether this means post-human sapiens is debatable, but it does mean post-war human sapiens, post-genocidal humans. Structural institutions such as a court for future generations (as well as strengthening of the World Court, particularly the war crimes commission) are necessary conditions in the march to a future generations-oriented governance. Without these we will continue to be left with human carnage. One Red Cross official describes her memories of the damage man’s inhumanity towards man can do (in this case referring to the problem of land mines): “You see a woman working in the fields, trying to hoe her crops, and she has no legs. She is up to her waist in mud.”

Changing our attitudes from a focus on the present, on the short term, to the longer term is also a necessary condition. Nurturing leadership that can coalesce consciousness and structure–and is concerned with growth and distribution, environment and culture, and that is inclusive and global–is the necessary and sufficient condition. Examining these concepts in terms of how power uses the past and future for its own status-quo is the safety hatch.

The Rights of Your Robots (1998)

Exclusion and Inclusion in History and Future

By Sohail Inayatullah

“The Rights of Your Robots: the Politics of Exclusion and Inclusion in History and Future”, in Edmund Ryden, ed., Human Rights and Values in East Asia (Taiwan, Fujen Catholic University, 1998), 143-162 (also at: http://www.fineartforum.org/Backissues/Vol_15/faf_v15_n08/index.html).

Many years ago in the folly of youth, I wrote an article with a colleague titled, “The Rights of Robots.” [1] It has been the piece of mine most ridiculed.  Pakistani colleagues have mocked me saying that Inayatullah is worried about robot rights while we have neither human rights, economic rights or rights to our own language and local culture – we have only the “right to be brutalized by our leaders” and Western powers.

Others have refused to enter in collegial discussions on the future with me as they have been concerned that I will once again bring up the trivial.  As noted thinker Hazel Henderson said, I am happy to join this group – an internet listserve – as long as the rights of robots is not discussed.

But why the ridicule and anger? Is it because as James Dator says: the only useful comments of the future should be ridiculous. That is, most statements about the future are tired and timid, reflections of staid academic thinkers who have no creativity, who are unable to grasp the grand technological and civilizations bolder souls are willing to speculate on?  Is the rights of robots a problematic issue because it strikes a deep discord about the world, that is, a world we know is fundamentally unjust, a world where technology will have rights but street children will not? A world where speculative capital is free to choose the most desirous nation but we as labor can at best only hope for a decent retirement account? Where labor can only hope that we will somehow make it and not become landless and laborless?

Or is it something else?

We wrote the piece not only because we believe robots will have legal rights one day – they will, to be sure! – but more so to show that rights are not decreed by nature but are reflections of legal conventions.  As Christopher Stone has argued: “throughout legal history, each successive extension of rights to some new entity has been theretofore, a bit unthinkable. We are inclined to suppose the rightlessness of rightless `things’ to be a decree of Nature, not a legal convention acting in support of the status quo.” [2]

Is it that we as humans are unwilling to consider giving rights to robots partly because we live in a zero-sum world. If robots have rights than others won’t. Our history of rights can be seen as a battle between inclusion and exclusion. The forces of exclusion have not been the same, they have changed through history – sometimes they have been centralized empires, other times centralized religious systems, and other times nation-states operating in a world-capitalist system. They have also been elders, brothers, bosses and all the other petty tyrants we must negotiate with day after day.

GLOBALISM AND RIGHTS

We have consistently defined others as less than ourselves: once done so, then every possible heinous crime can be committed against them. Globalism, is of course, the latest victory in defining others as somehow less – become more efficient, more productive, export more, be all that you can be. You are fundamentally a producer and consumer, and unless you do the former first, your ability to engage in the latter will be restricted. Globalism merely continues the language of colonialism and developmentalism – the same sense of inevitability is there, the same recourse to the grand masters of social evolution – Comte and Darwin – is there. And indeed responses to globalism follow the same simplistic pattern as well – a conspiracy of the powerful, of the West, of capital (instead of an understanding of the deeper structures of history).

The basic presumption of globalism is one of hierarchy, framed neutrally as comparative advantage but in fact a social-genetic-cultural model of who is civilized and who is barbaric.

But what if we were to take a different tack?  What if we took serious, for example, the Tantric Indian civilizational worldview wherein all of life, including technology, is alive. Or the American Indian, as developed by Jamake Highwater, who reminds us that it is the collective that is alive, existing in a relationship of sharing, caring and gratitude, not dominance.  Could the robot then enter as friend.

Again, this does not necessarily mean a totally horizontal world where all have equal rights as in the Western perspective nor a collectivized “Father knows best” vertical world. Rather it means a world where they are layers of reality, where mind is in all things from humans to animals to plants and, even, dare we say to robots.

This certainly does mean a world with some rights for plants and animals as well – a vegetarian world; one cannot love the collective if one eats the individual, the tantrica might tell us.  By vegetarian, we are not only situating the personal in the political but reminding that behind our collective foot habits is an anti-ecology regime, an anti-life regime, an anti-health regime, that is, our eco-system is at stake,[3] our health would all be better if we saw animals and plants as being not part of the Darwinian chain of life, the circle of life, but as part of an ecology of consciousness.

But you will say, this is an ethnocentric argument. We are meat-eaters.

Yes, rights then are ethnocentric and more often than not human-centric.  The extension of rights has always been unthinkable, the impossible, and yet we have not had any level of human progress without the extension of rights to those we previously considered not-worthy.

In an essay titled, “Visioning a Peaceful World,” Johan Galtung writes: “Abolition of war [can be seen as a similar goal to the fight against] slavery and colonialism, abject exploitation and patriarchy were and are up against. They won, or are winning. We live in their utopia, which then proved to be a realistic utopia. So is ours: a concrete utopia for peace.”[4]

INCLUSION AND RIGHTS

This is thus other side of the story, as much as history has been the exclusion of rights, it has also been the advancement of rights, about inclusion, about gentleness, about the struggle for love.  My reading is as follows:

Glossing human history, we argue that even while there are certainly cyclical dimensions to history (the rise and fall, the strengthening and weakening, the back and forth of class, civilization, varna, nation), there has been a linear movement towards more rights, towards laying bare power.

In the European context, for example, there have been a succession of revolutions, each one granting increased rights to a group which had been exploited by the dominant social class and limiting the powers of those at the top.

(1)        The revolt of the peasants against feudalism (the late middle ages, the 14th century). Increased rights for peasants.

(2)        The revolt of aristocrats against clergy (church/state) – wherein church power was contested (modernity). The breakdown of Church dogma and the development of scientific thinking.

(3)        The revolt of aristocrats against the king, a constitutional revolution as in the English Glorious Revolution of the 17th century, a process started much earlier with the Magna Carta in the 13th century.

(3)        The revolt of bourgeois against the aristocrats and clergy. This was the French revolution and created the Enlightenment – a victory for rational humanism and science against ideational church dogma.

(4)        More recently the revolt of the proletariat against the bourgeoisie. This was the Russian socialist revolution of 1917. Increased rights, at least in the short run, for labor. In Nordic nations this was more of a gradual evolution of labor power, of the welfare state.

(5)        Elsewhere, there was the revolt of the peasants against the city. This was Mao Zedeng’s formula (the argument that the two opposing camps are the city and the rural). Pol Pot took this view to its tragic consequence. The city, however, appears it is winning although telecommunications might allow a return to the village, but at this stage it is more the Los Angelisation of the planet than the creation of a global village.

(6)        More recently (and of course, part of a long term trend) has been the revolt of women against men, against patriarchy in all its forms. This is the pivotal trend of increased rights for women.

(7)        The revolt of nature against industrialism. This has been the Green position calling for a limits of technocracy.

(8)        The revolt of the Third World against Europe, with calls for Third World solidarity. This decolonization process – The 18th American Revolution being a much earlier example of this – has eventually led to

(9)        The revolt of the indigenous against all foreign social formations, calling for the creation of special status for them as guardians of the planet

(10)      Finally is the revolt against the nation-state worldview, wherein social movements are aligning themselves to create a third space that beholden neither to the prince or merchant, nor to the interstate system or to global capitalism.[5]

DEFINE OR BE DEFINED

This last four have not only been about increased rights but about defining the rights discourse, deciding what constitutes a right, who defines it, and how rights are to be protected and implemented.  This is one of the crucial battles of the near term future, to define or be defined by others.

Globalisation is of course about defining the world of others – asserting that traditional systems of knowledge, local languages and self-reliant cannot lead to a modern society. As Ashis Nandy writes: “Few hydrologists are interested in what the natives think about their grand irrigation projects and megadams; health planners depend almost entirely on modern medicine; and agricultural innovations are not introduced in consultation with farmers.”[6] In Australia, the nomadic way of life of aborigines is to be rooted out if Aboriginal health is to improve – they have already been defined as out of the norm, health practices based on modern sedentary lifestyles are not seen as the problem, writes Michael Shapiro.[7] Of course, even multinational pharmaceutical companies now scourge the planet looking for the latest herb to patent but this process is done so within the modernist corporatist context and not within the cultural knowledge system of the local.  Defining what is real, what is important, what is beauty has become as important as ensuring that one is not periphery but centre in the world economy.

While the general trend at one level is progressive – more happiness for more people – at another level there are exaggerations of systems such that the victory of the Enlightenment over religious systems, over traditional society, has led to a pendulum shift back to traditional systems – localisms, ethnicity, and in many ways a pre-scientific world.  This tension is also leading to the possibility of a post-rational and post-scientific world, which integrates the sensate and the ideational.  Finally, at a third level, there has been little progress, each new technological improvements creates new side-affects, each new growth spurt in the world-economy creates new losers and vaster sites of impoverishment.

Certainly then, the advancement of rights, while progressive, does not got far enough.  Among others, including our robot friends, I think not.  They need to be expanded.

(1)        First, following Sarkar,[8] we need to expand humanism to neo-humanism, which struggles against the Enlightenment’s human centrism and argues for increased rights of plants and animals – towards global vegetarianism and for an global ecological regime.

(2)        Following, numerous third world activists and federalists, what is needed is to expand the concept of the magna carta (against the power of the king) into a neo-magna carta and develop a world government with basic human rights; rights of language, right of religion and right to purchasing power (related to this is maxi-mini wage structure wherein minimum economic rights are guaranteed).

The expansion of these rights, however, will not come about through polite conferences, but as we know, through epistemic (the language/worldview battle), cultural (through a renaissance in art, music, and thought) social (the organizations of values and institutions) and political (challenging state power) struggle.

THE PROCESS OF RIGHTS

At the level of rights, the process, according to Neal Milner is as follows.[9]

His first stage in this theory is imagery.  Here imagery stressing rationality of the potential rights‑holder is necessary. This has been part of the struggle for rights of nature, since nature is not considered a rational actor.

The next stage of rights emergence requires a justifying ideology.  Ideologies justifying changes in imagery develop.  These, according to Milner, include ideologies by agents of social control and those on the part of potential rights holders or their representatives.

The next stage is one of changing authority patterns.  Here authority patterns of the institutions governing the emerging rights holders begin to change.

Milner next sees the development of “social networks that reinforce the new ideology and that form ties among potential clients, attorneys and intermediaries.”[10]

The next stage involves access to legal representation.  This is followed by routinization, wherein legal representation is made routinely available.  Finally government uses its processes to represent the emerging rights‑holders.

Of course, for our discussion this is somewhat limiting, rights are more than legal expressions, they are nested in civilizational views of space, time and other.

Thus while for some civilizations rights become so when governmentalized, in other maps rights are part of a web of relationships between self, community and the larger collective, the state, this is especially so in collectivist societies. Rights are related to ones responsibilities, to one’s dharma.

However, rights when defined strictly in western individualistic terms often are unable to deal with issues of import from other civilizations. For example, indigenous access to land, ancestors, and gods/angels are all non-negotiable civilizational givens.

At the same time, these too should not be seen in essentialistic terms, that is, all civilizations are practice, they are potent life forces with operating mythologies.  These mythologies can be used by leaders, most recently in Yugoslavia with Milosovic, to deny the human rights of other cultures. Civilizational traumas are used then by politics not for transcendence but for further exclusion.  Trauma is piled on trauma and the linear progression of rights become lost – rights become not an asset for the oppressed but a stock of symbols for the state to use against others – rights are used in a zero-sum competitive world.

In contrast is the case of Taiwan where a traditional system, Confucianism, has been modernised to include the democratic impulse. Asian values are not seen as fixed but as dynamic, democracy can be reshaped to exist with non-Western values.[11]

INCLUSION

A rights discourse is essentially about inclusion and about built-in agreed upon  structures of peaceful mediation to resolve conflicting rights. By now it should be quite clear that what is under discussion is not the future of technology, but the future of power.

Denial of rights of robots – since they are considered other, as not sentient, and thus not part of our consideration – becomes of an exemplar of how we treat other humans, plants, animals and civilizations.  Like children, the environment and future generations, robots do not have adequate representation (and thus are considered rightless). Like children, the environment and future generations, robots are considered less alive, less important, and thus are considered rightless. Since they are so different, why should they be given rights?  This is made more so by a worldview which is rationalistic and reductionist, which resists emergence in technology. In contrast are Buddhist views, for example, which see all as persons, and not at things. Shamanistic perspectives as well can imagine the spirit entering technology, thus allowing it to become, while not more human, certainly  part of what it means to be human.

Robots call us to consider culture and civilization not as fixed but as dynamic, as growing in response to other cultures and civilizations, to technological dynamism.  Responses to dramatic changes in technologies and values can lead to societal disintegration, to a cultural schizophrenia, can be directly creative as with Toynbee’s minority, or can be resistance-based, and thus create a new culture.[12]

TRANSFORMATIONS IN EPISTEME[13]

The rights of robot is only one emerging issue that promises to change how we see ourselves and others. Genetics, multiculturalism, the women’s movement, postmodernism, information and communication technologies as well promise to alter how we see nature, truth, reality and self.   There are four levels to this epistemic transformation of the future of humanity, perhaps well summed up by the following poem:[14]

It’s only a paper moon

Floating over a cardboard sea.

But it wouldn’t be make-believe

If you believed in me.

The first is: transformations in what we think is the natural or Nature.[15]  This is occurring from the confluence of numerous trends, forces, and theories.  First, genetics and the possibility that with the advent of the artificial womb, women and men as biological beings will be secondary to the process of creation. The link between sexual behaviour and reproduction will be torn asunder.[16]  But it is not just genetics which changes how we see the natural, theoretical positions arguing for the social construction of nature also undo the primacy of the natural world. Nature is not seen as the uncontested category, rather humans create natures based on their own scientific, political and cultural dispositions. We “nature” the world. Nature is what you make it. There is no longer any state of nature. Feminists have certainly added to this debate, pointing out that they have been constructed by men as natural with men artifactual. By being conflated with nature, as innocent, they have had their humanity denied to them and tamed, exploited, and tortured just as nature has.

As nature changes its social meaning, so will the idea of natural rights. Arguments that rights are political not universal or natural, that is, that rights must be fought for also undo the idea of a basic nature. Thus, nature as eternal, as outside of human construct, has thus come under threat from a variety of places: genetics, the social construction argument, and the rights discourse.

Related to the end of nature are transformations in what we think is the Truth. Religious truth has focused on the one Truth. All other nominations of the real pale in front of the eternal. Modernity has transformed religious truth to allegiance to the nation-state with science and technology as its hand-maiden.  However, thinkers from Marx, Nietzsche, to Foucault from the West, as well as feminists and Third World scholars such as Edward Said have contested the unproblematic nature of truth. Truth is considered class-based, gender-based, culture-based, personality-based. Knowledge is now considered particular, its arrangement based on the guiding episteme.  We often do not communicate well since our worlds are so different, indeed, it is amazing we manage to understand each other at all.

Language is central in this shift, as it is seen not as a neutral mediator of ideas but as opaque, as participating, indeed, in constituting that which it refers to.[17]  It is not so much that we speak languages, but that languages create our identities. We language the world and language constitutes what it is that it is possible for us to see.

Multiculturalism has argued that our images of time, space, and history, of text are based on our linguistic dispositions. Even the library once considered a neutral institution is now seen as political. Certainly Muslims, Hawaiians, Aborigines, Tantrics, and many others, would not construct knowledge along the lines of science, social science, arts and humanities.  Aborigines might divide a library – if they were to accede to that built metaphor – as divided by sacred spaces, genealogy and dreamtime. Hawaiians prefer the model of aina (land), the Gods, and genealogy (links with the everpresent ancestors).  Not just is objectivity under threat, but we are increasingly living in a world where our subjectivity has been historicized and culturized. The search is for models that can include the multiciplicities that we are -layers of reality, spheres with cores and peripheries.

In any case, the belief in one truth held traditionally by religious fundamentalists and now by scientists is under assault. Can we moves towards an ecology of mind, where many ways of knowing, where truth as claimed by differing traditions is honoured, dialogued? That is, once truth has been decentred, and all perspectives are allowed, what then? Can we create a global project that unites yet respects multiplicities? Can we create a world in the context of an ecology of rights – interpenetrating rights, their expansion enhancing each other?[18] Or are there non-negotiable fundamentals that do not allow agreement but still might allow small practical steps taken together leading to a better world – many peace processes? [19]

Central to the end of the grand narratives is a rethinking of what we consider as Real.  Our view of the real is being shaped partly by technology, specifically virtual technology and its promise. Cyberspace has become a contender for the metaphor for the future of reality.  By donning a helmet, we can enter worlds wherein the link between traditional, or natural physical reality and cyber/virtual reality are blurred. Will you be you? Will I be me? As we travel these worlds, will we lose our sense of an integrated self? Where is the reality principle in these new technologies? What of human suffering and misery?  How will traditional Asian systems that are more collectivist in identity deal with the individuality of virtuality? Can virtuality become more group based, or will it destabilise Asian identities?

The real is what can be created by desire.  Whereas for Buddhists, the task has been to extinguish desire, for the West, the project is to totally fulfil desire, reality is what you want it to be. Desire is truth.

The environment as a place of rest, as beauty, as a source of inspiration, as a living entity of itself, then becomes secondary. Whereas philosophers have deconstructed it, cybernauts have captured and miniaturised it. Why do we still need to protect wildlife when it can be virtually rendered, we can now meaningfully ask? Since we will not be able to perceive the difference between the natural and the technological, wouldn’t it be better to use the environment for development then? The virtual environment, let us remember, comes without insect bites, without bush fires, without fear. It comes without imperfections.

The rights of minorities will likely become less important since all different perspectives can be kept alive virtually, thus not stopping progress.

Paradoxically, as the real becomes increasingly metered and sold, as reality ceases to be embedded in spiritual and sacred space, becoming instead commercial real estate space, others have began to argue that the ideational is returning, that the pendulum is shifting again.  Echoing Sorokin’s idea of the  need for a balance between the sensate and the ideational, Willis Harmon argues that the physical world is only one layer of reality. The spiritual world is another. What is needed is a balance, a move towards global mind change. Rupert Sheldrake with his idea of morphogenetic fields, Sarkar with his ideas of microvita (providing the conscious software to the hardware of the atom), De Chardin with his idea of a noosphere, all point to the notion that we are connected at a deeper layer, perhaps at the level of Gaia.  Lynn Margulis takes this to the cellular level reminding us that it is cooperation that succeeds at this minute level.

Materialism as the global organising principle is under threat from post-rational spiritual perspectives, the new physics, and macrohistorians[20] that believe the historical pendulum is about to shift again.

Reality is thus changing. The old view of reality as only religious or the modern view of the real as physical are under threat from the postmodern view that reality is technologically created and from the ecological view which sees the real as relational, an ecology of consciousness, where there is no one point, but all selves are interactively needed.

The final level of deep transformation is in what we think is Man.  Whether we are reminded of Foucault[21] arguing that man is a recent, a modern category, and that his image will disappear like an etching on sand, about to be wiped away by the tide, or if we focus on the emergence of the women’s movement as a nudge to man as centre, man as the centre of the world is universally contested.  While the enlightenment removed the male God, it kept the male man. The emerging worldview of robots -what Marvin Minsky of MIT calls “mind-children” – cyborgs, virtual realities, cellular automata, the worldwideweb, microvita as well as the dramatic number of individuals who believe in angels, all point to the end of Man as the central defining category.

We are thus witnessing transformations coming through the new technologies, through the worldviews of non-Western civilisations, through the women’s movement, and through spiritual and Gaian perspectives.  All these taken together point to the possibility but not certainty of a new world shaping.

Let us say this in different words. We are witnessing the end of modernity. What this means is that we are in the process of changes in Patriarchy (I am male); Individualism (I win therefore I am); Materialism (I shop therefore I am);  Dualism (I think therefore I am); scientific dogmatism (I experiment therefore I know better or I have no values thus I am right); Nationalism (I hate the other therefore I am); and humanism (humans are the measure of all things). This is however a long term process and part of the undoing of capitalism.  All these connect to create a new world, which is potentially the grandest shift in human history.  We are in the midst of galloping time, plastic time, in which the system is unstable and thus can dramatically transform.

What this means is many things. First, my friends the robots will probably be happy in this artificial world being created. Second, civilizations will survive especially those that can quickly adapt. Cultures, of course, will not be lost but miniaturized, virtualized. Third, that the struggles for human rights, environmental rights, refugee rights, to mention a few, will pale compared to the dislocations in front of us.  As important as fighting for the rainforest will be greening genetics.  As important as rights for children will be the right to sexually reproduce.  As important as rights for refugees will be rights for the identity-less. As important as struggles for allowing the voice of all, will be a struggle against postmodernism, which has embraced all, even evil, making all relativistic, and thus all the same, denying a layered approach to rights and values.

EAST ASIAN FUTURES

What will be the futures of East Asian cultures and systems of knowledge in this dramatically to be transformed world.  First, the East Asian responses to modernity, to the problem of the West, have been dynamic.  Japan, for example, has reinvented itself at the level of technology but managed to maintain its unique cultural heritage. Thus, it has at the surface level been transformed, and in many ways has become more Western than the West, that is, continuing the Western world-capitalist project. At the same time, Japan has held on to its Confucian/Buddhist and Zen/Daoist elements, having been able to selectively choose aspects of Westernisation that fits it cultural overlay.

Kinhide Mushakoji argues that the traditional two poles of Japanese society (and East Asian society as well)  of Confucianism (formal/hierarchal) and Daoist/Zen (informal, networks, mystical) are with postmodernism about to shift to the Daoist pole.[22] This model at essence will be self-organizing, that is, chaotic (ordered disorder). Indeed, the postmodern challenge of language as constituting the self is very much a zen perspective. The plastic nature of self that genetics and robotics create again fits well in the Zen overlay. However, while Zen has always maintained the natural/unnatural dichotomy[23] (with all other dichotomies open to transgression), it is the final structure of thought that postmodernism evaporates. Moreover, multiculturalism and the women’s movement pose challenges to Confucian societies that traditional “every person in their class” ideology will not be able to manage so easily.

The Singapore model, in particular, will be under question. Singapore has been equally keen to adopt western financial practices and technological impetus but has stalled cultural democracy keeping Singapore a managed state. It will resist chaotic tendencies with more management, with more control. Indeed, it could become a type of social museum, the perfect modernist site in a chaotic world of genetic, robotics, the internet and deep multiculturalism.

South Korea has added Christianity and Westernization to its triple heritage of Shamanism (Daoism), Confucianism and Buddhism. It has managed to keep its public sphere male and Confucian with its private sphere female and shamanistic. However, the changes to come challenge that division.

Fortunately, this future is not inevitable. These trends can play themselves out in varied ways. There is room to manoeuvre still.

Among others, Anwar Ibrahim in his The Asian Renaissance[24] believes that Asians can meet these challenges. He believes Asians and their leaders have developed the capacity to challenge the lure of jingoism, of culture being used for political capital, for immediately political gain.

Ibrahim argues that cultural jingoism, while understandably a reaction to Western dominance, cannot redeem, cannot liberate, rather it is the fodder of narrow tribalists, nationalists and fundamentalists.  A renaissance is about a reawakening of the universal and not about using the category of “Asian” for authoritarian and totalitarian means, for erasing the individual in the guise of the Asian collective.  Anwar Ibrahim reminds us that even in the family-oriented Confucian tradition, the self and community are seen as equally important – the wise person develops his moral self, articulating it for self-perfection and the greater good.

Economic productivity, he argues, can coexist with a cultural development. An Asian renaissance based on a true multiculturalism – unity in democratic diversity can provide a path to a new future for Asian and the world.

Importantly, he asserts that “As Asia gains wealth and power, it must search its deepest conscience. It should not assume the role of the new executioner to reply the old history of oppression and injustice.”[25]

In addition to Ibrahim’s vision of civilizations in dialogue, of a reborn Asia, I offer the following general scenarios as possibilities.

SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE

The first scenario is the Artificial Society. This would be the end of environmentalism, humanism and the cultural view of rights. It would lead to the technologization of the self. The goal would be full unemployment with technology working so that humans could rest and play. But more than artificial it is about the end of the distinction of technology and artificial such that we would no longer have a category called Nature. It is with postmodernity that all is possible and history is packed in virtual museums, eternally available but never realisable.

In the first stage of this scenario, rights would be framed around the tensions between humans and technologies, between humans and their genetic offspring (with humans as the missing link[26]).  Concretely, these would include the right to procreate, the right to disconnect from the net, the right to not travel.  Eventually human/machine and technology/nature distinctions would disappear, as would the idea of rights.

The second scenario is The Communicative-Inclusive Society. This is deep spiritual ecology, with rights of all, and the self as cosmic. Technology is considered part of humanity’s expansion but at issue is power and control, who owns and what values are used to design technology. Equally central is the metaphysics of life: desire as channelled expression, as creativity, creating new forms of expression as opposed to filling a fundamental emptiness. Essentially this is a communicative society, where communication between humans, plants, trees, animals,, angels, and technology are all considered legitimate. The central project is a dialogue between civilisations, nature and the divine through which a good society (and not the perfect society of linear developmentalism) can be created. A good society embraces its contradictions, a liberal democracy in search of a perfect, contradiction-free society attempts to eliminate them.

Globalism would come to mean not just the right of capital mobility but labor mobility. It would also mean the creation of a planetary civilization with a world government consisting of houses for corporations, social movements, individuals and nations.

The third scenario is Business as Usual or Incrementalism – It is appropriation of the Other through the idea of the melting pot, or shallow multiculturalism. Dominant issues are daily power issues, for example, in Australia of the republic versus monarchy argument. New technologies provide impetus for the expansion of capital, giving capitalism fresh air. Technologies are considered culturally and gendered neutral tools. As the gun lobby says, people kill people, not guns. Communication is merely used for instrumental purposes not for reaching shared goals. The environment is a resource to be used for growth. Rights would remain individualistic with the structural causes of poverty and the cultural basis of reality ignored.

The last scenario is Societal Collapse. The position is that man has gone too far, that Earth will strike back with earthquakes and tsunamis. Globalism has created a system out of control, only stock market collapse through perhaps cybercurrency fraud leading to a softer slower pace of life can rend things in balance again. The most likely immediate future is a global depression and the timing will be myth related, that is, at the end of the millennium.

Rights would go the physically strongest and not just the richest or the mentally agile. Life would be “nasty, brutish, and short.”

MAKING THE RIGHTS DECISION

What the future will be like we cannot say.  We do know that grand macrohistorical forces cannot be easily changed, but bifurcation is possible. At the edge of chaos lies transformation, wherein by finding the strange attractors of change, concerted efforts by the few can dramatically change all our futures.

Let us imagine a different future than that which we are heading toward. Let us through our responses help create it.  Remembering the dilemma of Yang Chu, who weeping at the crossroads, said, “Isn’t it here that you take a half step wrong and wake up a thousand miles astray?”[27] Let us take a half a step in the right direction and be part of a global awakening, be part of the progressive expansion of rights.

As we do let us not forget our friends the robots – that is those who are so different than us, we automatically conclude they should be rightless – let us ensure that as we progress forward – given the limitations of macrohistorical forces – we take everyone with us.

Contact Sohail Inayatullah for the reference notes to this article.

From Silences to Global Conversations (1998)

From Billions Of Silences To Global Civilizational Conversations: Exclusion and communication in the information era

By Sohail Inayatullah and Ivana Milojevic

(A version of this appeared in Transforming Communication edited by Sohail Inayatullah and Susan Leggett. Westport, Ct, Praeger, 2002)

Many claim that with the advent of the web and internet, the future has arrived. The dream of an interconnected planet where physical labor becomes minimally important and knowledge creation becomes the source of value and wealth appears to be here.  For cyberenthusiasts, the new information and communication technologies increase our choices.  Bill Gates believes “it will affect the world seismically, rocking us in the same way the discovery of the scientific method, the invention of printing, and the arrival of the Information Age did.”[i] Author of Being Digital, Nicholas Negroponte writes that “while the politicians struggle with the baggage of history, a new generation is emerging from the digital landscape free of many of the old prejudices. These kids are released from the limitation of geographic proximity as the sole basis of friendship, collaboration, play, and neighborhood. Digital technology can be a natural force drawing people into greater world harmony.”[ii] Douglas Rushkoff[iii]believes that computers are creating a generation gap between the “screenagers” and others, with screenagers having the most important skill of all – multi-tasking, choosing and doing many things at the same time (of course, forgetting that women have always had to do many things at the same time – taking care of the home and children as well as other types of formal and informal work). In any case, ICTs are creating a new world, an interactive, truly democratic world.            For proponents, the new technologies reduce the power of Big business and Big State, creating a vast frontier for creative individuals to explore. “Cyberspace has the potential to be egalitarian, to bring everyone into a network arrangement. It has the capacity to create community; to provide untold opportunities for communication, exchange and keeping in touch.”[iv]  Cybertechnologies will allow more interaction creating a global ecumene. They create wealth, indeed, a jump in wealth.  The new technologies promise a transformational society where the future is always beckoning, a new discovery is yearly.[v]

Critics, however, argue it is not a communicative world that will transpire but a world of selves downloading their emotional confusion onto each other.  Writes Zia Sardar, “Far from creating a community based on consensus, the information technologies could easily create states of alienated and atomised individuals, glued to their computer terminal, terrorising and being terrorised by all those whose values conflict with their own.”[vi]

Social scientist Kevin Robbins is not convinced that our lives will be meaningfully changed by the information revolution; rather, he believes the information and communication technology (ICT) hype merely replaces the classical opiate of religion and the modernist idea of progress. Indeed, for Robbins, the new technologies impoverish our imagination of alternative futures, particularly our geographic imagination.  Focusing on distance, Robbins quoting Heidegger reminds us that the end of distance is not the creation of nearness, of intimacy, of community. “We are content to live in a world of `uniform distanceless,’ that is, in an information space rather than a space of vivacity and experience.”[vii] There is the illusion of community – in which we can create virtual communities far and away but still treat badly our neighbours, partners and children.

But writes Robbins, more than destroying the beauty of geography, techno-optimists such as Bill Gates, Nicholas Negroponte and others take away space for critical commentary (personalising the discourse by seeing critics as merely imbued with too much negativity), that is for the creation of futures that are different. Critical commentary, however, is not merely of being pessimistic or optimistic but a matter of survival. As Paul Virilio writes: “I work in the `resistance’ because there are now too many `collaborators’ once again telling us about salvation through progress, and emancipation, about man (sic) being freed from all constraints.”[viii]

Earlier it was Comte’s positive science that was to solve all the problems of religion, of difference and now with the end of the cold war, it is liberal democracy. Michael Tracey in his essay “Twilight: illusion and decline in the communication revolution” writes that it is not an accident that just at the precise moment “the planet is being constructed within the powerful, pervasive all consuming logic of the market, there is a second order language, a fairy tale … that suggests in Utopian terms new possibilities, in particular, those presented by the new alchemies of the `the Net.'” [ix] What was once the cant of progress is now the cant of cyberspace – from love to democracy, from evil to poverty, all will be delivered, all will be redeemed – virtuality is “here”.

Thus, while the internet helps connect many people (especially those in the North) and supplies much needed information (especially important in the South) it also represents a specific form of cultural violence.  While it intends to create a global community of equals, making identification based on age, looks, race, (dis)ability, class or gender becoming less relevant, it also, through promoting, enhancing and cementing current ways of communicating, silences billions of people.

EXCLUSION

Some of the excluded are non-english speaking nations, “irrelevant” nations and peoples, national, religious and ideological minorities, poor in poor countries and poor in rich countries, the majority of women, most old and disabled, and almost all children (although certainly not Western screenagers). In the 21st century most of the world’s population will still be silenced. Reality will still be that of the strongest and most powerful. The new communication technologies will further enhance differences between poor and rich, between women and men, and between the world and its narrow part defined as “the West”. And once poor, if the world and women catch up with the dominating forces, it will be on their terms and it will be in their language.

WOMEN AND GLOBAL CONVERSATIONS

Before crying for our lost battle, we (women, non-english speaking people, not so technically-oriented individuals) can start thinking in terms of what exactly is silenced, and what can we do about it. How can we engage in global conversations while not losing our own identities, our own understanding of reality, our ways of speaking, or our own language? How can we use the Net without being used by it?

Women and others do not necessarily have to be disempowered. Women have proved they can speak the language of their “enemy” (as has the South of the North).  Afterall that is what women learn in schools, gather from books and from all the other print media: someone else’s history, someone else’s perspective and someone else’s knowledge. Most feminists agree that in order to achieve this women had to either became bilingual (some successfully and many through the destructive process of othering their own selves) or to abandon their own traditional language. While it is not so clear what this traditional language might be, obvious differences between women’s and men’s ways of speaking are found to exist. Research, in general, shows that women ask questions while men make statements, that women talk about people and feelings while men talk about things, that women use more adjectives, more modal forms such as “perhaps”, “sort of”, “maybe”, and more tag questions and attention beginners.[x]

It is often stressed that language not only reflects but also perpetuates and contributes to gender inequality, and that through language hierarchy between genders is “routinely established and maintained”.[xi] Feminist researchers find that men are more likely than women to control conversation while women do “support work” being some sort of “co-operative conversationalists” who express frequent concern for other participants in talk.[xii] The main solution for the transformation of current conversational division of labour between sexes cannot be only in the area of language because even the most “neutral” terms can always be appropriated by the dominant culture (like the meaning of the word “no” can be at time constructed to mean “maybe” or “wait a while”).[xiii] Susan Ehrlich and Ruth King write: “Because linguistic meaning are, to a large extent, determined by the dominant culture’s social values and attitudes, terms initially introduced to be non-sexist and neutral may lose their neutrality in the “mouths” of a sexist speech community and/or culture”.[xiv] The organisation of words and ideas into knowledge was similarly done in a context of masculine power where women were made invisible, their existence either denied or distorted and their ways of knowing and issues of interest labelled irrelevant. While many feminist linguists are attemping to reinvent language and support women’s emancipation through linguistic interventions, it is clear that this has to be done simultaneously with political, economic and cultural transformations in the areas of knowledge, language and the written word. The question is: can the Net become a site for this reinvention? Can women’s and others’ ways of knowing and speaking find space and voice on the Net? Can we escape the toolcentric approach of the new information and communication technologies to create a softer, listening future in which we co-evolve with nature, technology, the spirit, and the many civilizations that are humanity?  Can the Net be communicative, in the widest sense of the word?

While it is obvious that women can and do use the most dominant language, it is also claimed that women would rather use “softer”, more intuitive and face-to-face approaches. In a future controlled by women, oral tradition, body language, sounds, dreams, intuitive and psychic ways of communicating possibly would be equal with the written text, or at least not so much suppressed. Maybe, in such a society where women would participate at all levels and in all spheres it wouldn’t be necessary to introduce “dressing Barbie” video games in order to make girls more interested in new computer technologies. Maybe new software would be more interactive and more user (women/other) friendly and maybe new communication technologies would look completely different. Maybe they would not be so individualised, and maybe, netweaving would be done in a context of community or friendly groups and not in a context of alienated individuals. Priorities would certainly be somewhere else: where the quality of life of majority of people would have the highest value.

A REAL INFORMATION SOCIETY

Thus, there are, and can be even moreso, progressive dimensions to the new technologies. As Fatma Aloo of the Tanzanian Media Women’s Association argues, “They are a necessarily evil.”[xv] Women and other marginalised groups must use and design them for their own empowerment or they will be further left out and behind. Without being part of the design (the “knowledge ware”) and use proecess, they will further have to other themselves when they use the ICTs.

What is needed then is the creation of a progressive information society. It would be a world system that was diverse in how it viewed knowledge, appreciating the different ways gender and civilization order the real.  It would not just be technical but emotional and spiritual as well and ultimately one that used knowledge to create better human conditions, to reduce dhukka (suffering) and realise moksa (spiritual liberation from the bonds of action and reaction). The challenge then is not just to increase our ability to produce and understand information but to enhance the capacity of the deeper layers of mind, particularly in developing what in Tantric philosophy is called the vijinanamaya kosa (where knowledge of what is eternal and temporal is touched).  Certainly, even though the web is less rigid than a library, it is not the liberating information technology some assume – spiritual energies and shamanistic dissenting spaces[xvi] cannot enter. Of course, underlying an alternative view of an information society is a commitment to prama or a dynamic equilibrium wherein internal/external, “male/female” and spiritual/material are balanced.

FROM GLOBAL CONVERSATIONS TO A GAIA OF CIVILIZATIONS

We thus need to imagine and help create social spaces so the new technologies participate in and allow for the coming of a real global civilization, a prama, a gaia of cultures; one where there is deep multi-culturalism; where not just political representation and economic wealth are enhanced but the basis of civilization: the epistemologies of varied cultures, women and men, how they see self and other, flourish.  To begin to realize this, we need to first critically examine the politics of information.  We need to ask if the information we receive is true; if it is important, what its implications are, and the who is sending us the information. We also need to determine if we can engage in a conversation with the information sent – to question it, reveal its cultural/gendered context, to discern if the information allows for dialogue, for communication. We thus need to search for ways to transform information to communication (going far beyond the “interactivity” the web promises us), creating not a knowledge economy (which silences differences of wealth) but a communicative economy (where differences are explored, some unveiled, others left to be).

To do so, in addition to engaging critically with the assumptions beyond the information discourse, we also need to expand the limited rationalist discourse in which “information” resides.  What we learn from other cultures such as the indigenous Indian Tantric is that the new electronic technologies are just one of the possible technologies creating world space. Indeed they just act at the most superficial materialistic levels. As important as cyberspace is microvita space[xvii] or the noosphere being created through our world imaginations, through our increasingly shared collective consciousness.

Certainly while the reality the information era is one of exclusion, the potential for shared communication futures remains. To do so will require far more communication – sharing of meaning – than we have ever known and at far greater levels, in light of the many ways we know and learn from each other.  While we have highlighted the structures of power that create colonization, we also need to acknowledge personal agency, we particularly need to be far more sensitive to how we project our individual and civilizational dark sides on others. The information era will further magnify our assumptions of self-innocence and other-as-guilty unless we begin to reveal our complicitness in soliloquy posing as conversation.

If information can be transformed to communication, the web then can  perhaps participate in the historical decolonization process giving power to communities and individuals in the overall context of global human, economic, environmental and culturally negotiated universals.

Dr. Sohail Inayatullah is the associate editor of New Renaissance and currently senior research fellow at the Communication Center, Queensland University of Technology. Box 2434, Brisbane, 4001, Australia. Tel: 61-7-3864-2192. Fax: 61-7-3864-1813.

Ivana Milojevic, previously Assistant/Associate Lecturer at the University of Novi Sad, Yugoslavia, is currently living in Brisbane, Australia.


[i].          Ibid., 199. Quoted from Gates, Bill (1995) The Road Ahead, Viking, London, p. 273.

[ii].         Ibid., 200. Quoted from Negroponte, Nicholas (1995) Being Digital, Hodder and Stoughton, London, p. 230.

[iii].        Rushkoff, Douglas (1997) Children of Chaos, HarperCollins, New York.

[iv].        Spender, Dale quoted in Carmel Shute (1996) `Women With Byte’ Australian Women’s Book Review, Vol. 8, No. 3, October, p. 9.

[v].         Serageldin, Ismail (1996) `Islam, Science and Values,’ International Journal of Science and Technology, Vol. 9, No. 2, Spring, pp. 100-114 compiles an impressive array of statistics.  “Items in the Library of Congress are doubling every 14 years and, at the rate things are going, will soon be developing every 7 years. …In the US, there are 55,000 trade books published annually. …The gap of scientists and engineers in North and South is vast with 3800 per million in the US and 200 per million in the South. … [Finally], currently a billion email messages pass between 35 million users, and the volume of traffic on the Internet is doubling every 10 months,” 100-101.  Of course, why anyone would want to count email messages is the key issue – as ridiculous would be to count the number of words said daily through talking, or perhaps even count the silence between words.

[vi].         Sardar, Zia (1996) `The future of democracy and human rights,’ Futures, Vol. 28, No. 9, November, p. 847.

[vii].        Robbins, Kevin (1997) `The new communications geography and the politics of optimism’ in Danielle Cliche, ed. Cultural Ecology: the changing nature of communications, International Institute of Communications, London, p. 208.

[viii].       Ibid., 210.  Quoted from Virilio, Paul (1996) Cybermonde, La Politique du Pire Textuel, Paris, p 78.

[ix].         Tracey, Michael, `Twilight: illusion and decline in the communication revolution’  in Danielle Cliche, ed. Cultural Ecology: the changing nature of communications, International Institute of Communications, London, p. 50.

[x].         Fishman, Pamela M (1990) `Interaction: The Work Women Do’, in Joyce McCarl Nielsen, ed., Feminist Research Methods, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado.

[xi].        Ibid., p. 225.

[xii].       Cameron, Deborah,  Fiona McAlinden and Kathy O’Leary, (1993) `Lakoff in

Context: the social and linguistic functions of tag questions’, in Stevi

Jackson, Women’s Studies: Essential Readings, New York University Press, New York, p. 424.

[xiii].      Ehrlich, Susan and Ruth King (1993) `Gender-based Language Reform and the Social Construction of Meaning’, in Stevi Jackson, Women’s Studies: Essential Readings, New York University Press, New York, pp. 410-411.

[xiv].       Ibid., p. 411.

[xv].        Comments delivered at the “Women and Cyberspace Workshop,” Santiago de Compostelo, Spain, May 20, 1997.

[xvi].       Nandy, A (1996) `Bearing Witness to the Future’, Futures, Vol. 28, No. 6/7, September, 636-639.

[xvii].      For example, as mystic P.R. Sarkar reminds us that behind our wilful actions is the agency of microvita – the basic substance of existence, which is both mental and physical, mind and body. Microvita can be used by minds (the image of monks on the Himalayas sending out positive thoughts is the organising metaphor here, as is the Muslim prayer in unison throughout the world with direction and focus) to change the vibrational levels of humans, making them more sensitive to others, to nature and to the divine. And as Rupert Sheldrake and Elise Boulding remind, as images and beliefs of one diverse world become more common it will be easier to imagine one world and live as one world, as a blissful universal family. See Sheldrake, R. (1981) A New Science of Life, Blong and Briggs, London. See Boulding, E. (1990) Building a Glboal Civic Culture. Syracuse University Press.

From the Information Era to a Gaia Of Civilizations (1997)

By Sohail Inayatullah, 1997

Information theory, while claiming universality, ignores civilisational and spiritual perspectives of knowledge. Moreover, the information society heralded by many as the victory of humanity over darkness is merely capitalism disguised but now commodifying selves as well. This essay argues for a more communicative approach wherein futures can be created through authentic global conversations – a gaia of civilisations. Current trends, however, do not lie in that direction. Instead, we are moving towards temporal and cultural impoverishment. Is the Web then the iron cage or can a global ohana (family, civil society) be created through cybertechnologies? Answering these and other questions are possible only when we move to layers of analysis outside conventional understandings of information and the information era and to a paradigm where communication and culture are central.

Key words: Information, Communication, Gaia of Civilisations

“The time for the liberation of heart and mind has not come yet…This is not your final destination.”[i] Faiz Ahmed Faiz.

Has the future arrived?[ii] Ended? Cyberspace and cloning; postmodernity and globalism are creating worlds where the future as a place of possibility and as a site of critique of the present, no longer exists. With virtual reality, cyberworld and genetics having arrived, the future and, indeed, history has ended. Our imaginations have become real – the fantastic has become the real.

However, perhaps the “cyber/information era” view of the future is overly linear, exponentially so, and forgetful that two-thirds of the world does not have a phone and much of the world lives over two hours from a phone connection. While postmodernity has speeded up time for the elite West and the elite in the non-West, for the majority of the world there is no information era.  Moreover, in the hyperjump to starspace, we have forgotten that while ideas and the spirit can soar, there are cyclical processes, such as the life and death of individuals, nations and civilisations that cannot be so easily transformed. While certainly there are more people making their living by processing ideas,[iii] perhaps we are engaged in a non-productive financial/information pyramid scheme where we are getting further and further away from food production and manufacturing, building virtualities on virtualites until there is nothing there, as in advaita vedanta[iv] wherein the world is maya, an illusion.  But perhaps it is important to remember from the history of previous empires that decline is in order when the capitalist class grows only from financing and knowledge creation, giving up manufacturing and losing vital resource to insecure peripheries.[v]

The coming of the information era, ostensibly providing untold riches in bits of freedom for all, in fact limits the futures of others because it robs them of their future alternatives – it certainly does not create a communicative gaia of civilizations,[vi] a new planetary future. Reality has become constructed as the worldwideweb, but perhaps this web is Max Weber’s iron cage – the future with no exit, wherein there is an inverse relationship between data and wisdom, between quick bytes and long term commitment, between engagement to technology and engagement with humans, plants and animals. We know now from email culture that the twin dangers of immediacy and speed do not lead to greater community and friendship, rather they can lead to bitter misunderstandings.[vii] Email then becomes not the great connector leading to higher levels of information but the great disconnector that gives the mirage of connection and community.[viii]  Email without occasional face to face communication can transform friendships into antagonistic relationships. Just as words lose the informational depth of silence, email loses information embedded in silence and face to face gestures.  The assimilation and reflection as well as the intuition and the insight needed to make sense of intellectual and emotional data are lost as the urgent need to respond to others quickens. Slow time, lunar time, women’s time, spiritual timeless time, cyclical rise and fall time and circular seasonal time are among the victims, leading to temporal impoverishment, a loss of temporal diversity where “21C” is for all instead of peculiar to Western civilisation.[ix]

Cybertechnologies thus create not just rich and poor in terms of information, but a world of quick inattentive time and slow attentive time. One is committed to quick money and quick time, a world where data and information are far more important than knowledge and wisdom.  It is a world where history is exponential versus a world that is cyclical: that believes the only true information worth remembering is humility; that civilisations that attempt to touch the sky burn quickly down; that economies that become so far removed from the real economy of goods and services, of agriculture, of the informal women’s economy and that become utterly dependent on cybertransactions can easily melt down.

It is thus a mistake to argue that there will only be an information rich and poor, rather there will be information quick and slow. Time on the screen is different from time spent gazing at sand in the desert or wandering in the Himalayas. Screen time does not slow the heart beat down relaxing one into the superconscious, rather we become lost in many bits, creating perhaps an era of accelerating information but certainly not a knowledge future or a future where the subtle mysteries of the world, the spiritual everpresent is felt.

Dark Side Of The Earth

There are two clear positions. In the first, the information era provides humans with the missing technologies to connect all selves. In the other, “Cyberspace is the darkside of the West” to use Zia Sardar’s provocative language.[x] He argues that cyberspace is the West caving in on itself, leaving no light to see outside of its own vision.[xi] It is a Spenglarian collapse. While cyberspace claims community, there in fact is none, it is anonymous. There is no responsibility towards others since there is no longer term relationship – there are no authentic selves, all exist for immediate short term pleasure and not for the larger task of working together towards a shared goal. People are because they struggle through projects/missions together, not just because they exist in shared virtual worlds.

This quickening of the self was anticipated by McLuhan in 1980.  “Excessive speed of change isolates already fragmented individuals. At the speed [speech] of light man has neither goals, objectives or private identity. He is an item in the data bank – software only, easily forgotten – and deeply resentful.[xii]

Selves lose reflective space, jumping from one object to another, one Website to another, one email to another.  It is not a communicative world that will transpire but a world of selves downloading their emotional confusion onto each other.  Writes Sardar, “Far from creating a community based on consensus, the information technologies could easily create states of alienated and atomised individuals, glued to their computer terminal, terrorising and being terrorised by all those whose values conflict with their own.”[xiii] It is as if we have all become psychic with all thoughts interpenetrating creating a global schizophrenia.[xiv]

Virtual realities have and will prosper not for the glimpse they give to us of other worlds but because they detach us from this world. Among the main virtual projects is the continued silencing of women from the technological discourse. Virtual technologies are growing because of their ability to simulate sexual pleasure.  Once these technologies are fully developed, men will no longer need to connect emotionally or with commitment to women (and some women to men as well), rather they will simulate their relationships with virtual dolls, creating worlds where women exist only as male representation.  What Playboy has not yet accomplished because of the flat dimension of centrefold spreads, virtual full dimension will realise it. Men will then continue to locate women as pleasure objects and create them as standardised beauty forms. The first step is the reduction of women to the hormone maddened images of adolescent males. The next stage is the elimination of women through virtual simulcras. Through genetics (the first phase as cloning but more important is the artificial womb), they will not be needed for procreation as well.  While this perhaps might be too bold of a statement, certainly the new genetics cannot in anyway be seen as nature or women-oriented technologies. While Finland, for example, extends the metaphor of the home into a caring State, genetics will lead to the opposite: the total penetration of the State into the home and then the body of women.[xv]

The Great Leap Forward         

Virtual reality thus fulfils the homoerotic male fantasy of a world of just men. However, some argue that virtual reality is a new technology whose future development is up for grabs, that computing does not have to be male biased, that women can enjoy user groups dominated by men.  While the technology is certainly male-dominated,[xvi] Sherman and Judkins give the banal advice that women[xvii] should educate themselves on the positive and negative dimensions of this new technology and then make it into their own (of course, forgetting the reasons why it is male dominated).[xviii] Fatma Aloo, howoever, of the Tanzanian Media Women’s Association argues that the internet is a necessarily evil.[xix] Even though it is male-dominated and the technology in itself is male-cultures, women endanger themselves more by not using these new technologies. Her association and the numerous other ngo’s hope to empower women through the net. Through the net, they are able to tell their stories of suffering, of marginalisation as well as their victories to others – at the some level then, isolation can disappear.

But for cyber enthusiasts, these new technologies are not necessarily evils but grand positives that give do more than merely provide information, they give more choice. They reduce the power of Big business and Big State, creating a vast frontier for creative individuals to explore. “Cyberspace has the potential to be egalitarian, to bring everyone into a network arrangement. It has the capacity to create community; to provide untold opportunities for communication, exchange and keeping in touch.”[xx] Cybertechnologies will allow more interaction creating a global ecumene – authentic global communication. They create wealth, indeed, a jump in wealth.  The new technologies promise a transformational society where the future is always beckoning, a new discovery is yearly[xxi] – and as our memory of the past becomes increasingly distant, humans become important not for themselves but for the new genetic/cyber species they create. The evils of the past slowly disappear as we know each other more intimately. The oppressive dimensions of bounded identity – to nation, village, gender, culture – all disappear as we move in and out of identities and communities.  History is then exponential with visions of collapse, of the perpetual cycle, of the weight of history, merely fictions of the past.  Our children will live in a world without gravity, believes Nicholas Negroponte. In Being Digital he argues that, “Digital technology can be a natural force drawing people into greater world harmony,”[xxii] where historical social divisions will disappear.  Predictably Bill Gates writes that “we are watching something historical happen and it will affect the world seismically, rocking us in the same way the discovery of the scientific method, the invention of the printing, and the arrival of the industrial age did.” [xxiii]  Mark Pesce goes even further than Negroponte and Gates, believing the web to be “an innovation as important as the printing press – it may be as important as the birth of language itself … in its ability to completely refigure the structure of civilization.”[xxiv] This is the moment of kairos, the appropriate moment, for a planetary jump to a new level of consciousness and society. It is the end of scarcity as an operating myth and the beginning of abundance, of information that wants to be free. The late 20th century is the demarcation from the industrial to the information/knowledge era. Progress is occurring now. Forget the cycle. That was misinformation.

But while the growth data looks impressive and the stock of Microsoft continues upward, there are some hidden costs. For example, what of negative dimensions of the new technologies such as surveillance? Police in Brisbane, Australia use up to a 100 hidden cameras in malls to watch for criminal activities.[xxv] Hundreds more are anticipated creating an electronic grid in central Brisbane. While this might be possibly benign in Brisbane (Aborigines might have different views though), imagining a large grid over Milosevic’s Yugoslavia or Taliban’s Afghanistan (or under Zia-ul Haq’s Pakistan where every “immoral” gaze would have led to arrest) it is enough to frighten the most fanatical techno-optimist. Or is it? Many believe that privacy issues will be forgotten dimensions of the debate on cyberfutures once we each have our own self-encryptors so that no one can read or enter us (the 21st century chastity belt). Technology will tame technology. Over time, the benefits of the new technologies will become global with poverty, homelessness and anomie all wiped out. All will eventually have access – even the poorest – as the billions of brains that we are, once connected, will solve the many problems of oppression.[xxvi]  While we have always imagined such a future, it is only now that technology allows it so.

The new cybertechnologies will also change how we war each other.  “The world is in the early stages of a new military revolution. The technologies include digital communications, which allow data to be compressed; a “global positioning system” (GPS) of satellites, which makes more exact guidance and navigation possible; radar-evading “stealth”; and, of course, computer processing.”[xxvii]

But they will also create a world in perpetual war with itself.

The new warfare will be `multi-dimensional’, meaning not only that air, sea and land operations will be increasingly integrated, but also that information and outerspace will be part of modern war. `Information warfare’ could mean disabling an enemy by wrecking his computing, financial, telecoms or air-traffic control systems. The relevant weapons might be computer viruses, electro-magnetic pulses, microwave beams, well-placed bombs or anything that can smash a satellite.[xxviii]

Competitive advantage will go to those who are the most information dependent, thus creating information gaps between themselves and others. This dependence, however, is a weakness, both sapping innovation by leading to a closed surveillance society and allowing others not dependent on instant information to attack from non-information paradigms. It is enantiodromia in action – one’s excellent is one’s fatal flaw.

Access To Global Conversations

At the metalevel, at issue is not just the access of individuals to technologies but more how the new technologies have taken over the discourse of global conversations, how they have infected our deep social grammar. While certainly it is important to have a global language – a way of communicating – the internet not only privileges English, it englishes the world such that other languages lose their ability to participate in global futures. It continues global standardisation. Who needs cloning, writes Kiirana@unm.edu when you already have global standardisation in the form of global coca-colaisation.[xxix]

The web creates a voice, a rhetoric, a certain kind of rationality which is assumed to be communicative.  But while certainly web pages that provide information on airline flight arrivals and departures or on hard to find books are instrumentally useful, information retrieval is not communication.  Communication proceeds over time through trauma and transcendence.  In trauma, communication occurs when human suffering is shared with others. In transcendence, communication occurs when differences are understood and mutuality discovered, when beneath real differences in what it means to be human, similarities in how we suffer and love are realised. Merely having a web page does not mean one is communicating with others except at the banal level of an electronic business card.

A web page, like a Coca-Cola ad on the moon or on Mars for visiting aliens provides some information but certainly not at a level most civilisations in the world would find satisfactory. It amplifies a certain dimension of self, however, as with all such amplifications, far more interesting is to note what is not sent, what is not said, then what is officially represented in email or on a website.

While Marshall McLuhan was certainly correct in writing that we create technologies and thereafter they create us, he did not emphasise enough that technologies emerge within civilisational contexts (where politics are naturalised, considered absent).  Technology creates the possibility of a global village but in the context of the Los-angelisation of the planet. It is the global city of massive pollution, poverty and alienation that is the context. In addition, the more vicious dimension of the village – the history of landlords raping farmers, of exclusive ideologies and of feudal relations is often forgotten in the metaphor of the global village, indeed, a global colony would be a far more apt metaphor.  But new technologies do create differences in world wealth, access to power and access to the creation of alternative futures.

Cyber-enthusiasts rightfully point to the opportunities of the one world created by new technologies. But they need to remember that the one world of globalism remains fundamentally capitalistic with the local (local economy and power over one’s future) increasingly being attacked. The tiny Pacific Island of Niue recently discovered that 10% of its national revenue was being sucked out through international sex-line services.[xxx] The information era as P.R. Sarkar points out is late capitalism, a system in which all other varnas – psycho-social classes and ways of knowing (the intellectual, the worker and the warrior)  – become the “boot lickers of the merchants.”[xxxi]  And: “In order to accumulate more and more in their houses, they torture others to starvation … they suck the very living plasma of others to enrich the capabilities.”[xxxii] While intellectuals invent metaphors of postmodernity and post-industrialism, capital continues to accumulate unevenly, the poor become poorer and less powerful (however, they can now have a Website).  The information era still exists in the context of the world capitalist system – it is not an external development of it, and it will not create the contradictions that end it. The knowledge society or non-material society that many futurists imagine conveniently forgets humans’ very real suffering. But for virtual realities, we have virtual theories.  The words “I make friends” from the genetic engineer character in the movie Blade Runner take on a different meaning. Making friends becomes not an “exchange” of meanings but the manufacturing of like-minded life forms – friendly robots in this movie.  One can easily imagine scenarios with corporations making happiness, love and life (not to mention providing passports/passwords).  The advertising genius of the 20th century will pale in comparison to what is to come in the next.

THE POLITICS OF CONVERSATIONS

Current global conversations are not communicative spaces of equal partner but conversations wherein one party has privileged epistemological, economic and military space. Certainly the emerging Palestinian world can not have a meaningful conversation with the power of Israel – they do not enter the conversation as equals. Moreover the language of such conversations uses the categories and assumptions of those that have designed the metaconversation.  We do not enter conversations unencumbered, as Foucault, Heidegger and many others have pointed out. Trails of discourses precede our words.  We do not own words, indeed, it is not even so much that we speak but that discourse creates the categories of “we”. That is to so say, it is not that we speak English, but that we language the world in particular ways.

Remembering the Unesco MacBride Commission report, Majid Tehranian argues that the major problem in global communication is the lack of a meaningful dialogue between West and non-West.  Each cannot hear the other – their paradigms are too different, for one. Second, the West does not believe that as the losers in history Asia, Africa, the Pacific have the right to speak. Only Confucianist societies (who present an economic challenge) and Islamic societies (who do not accept their fate and challenge the positioning of the West) are problematic for the future of the West.

The West desires the non-West to procreate less; the non-West points out that the West argues for population limits only after it has robbed the future of the world’s resources and without contesting the structural relations of imperialism.  After all, Los Angeles uses the same amount of energy as India. As Gayatri Spivak writes: “A large part of this deplorable state of affairs is lodged between the legs of the poor women of the South. They’re having too many children. At Halloween, one day in the United States, more than 300 million dollars was spent on cards, 72 million dollars on costumes and more than 700 million on candy. More than a billion dollars. One of those children is 300 times [in terms of consumption] one of the children in the South. So what kind of body count is that.”[xxxiii] Spivak thus locates the problem in consumption-oriented capitalism and not in Indian women who do not need information on world population trends.

The West desires a free-flow of information, the non-West (and France) wants to protect its culture, arguing that the real flow is downward from Disneyland to Islamabad and rarely the other way around. This is not because Western culture is superior, because truth really did begin in Greece, but because the West has technological and financial advantages and because over the past 500 years they have defined what is beauty, truth and humour. Free flow can exist when lines of videos, television and music are, in fact, authentically based on market relations. Currently the West has structural advantages. However, the West believes that it is bringing faster, quicker and more exciting global culture, and that the non-West is using these excuses as a way to deny their citizens global culture, to protect their culture industries and to oppress dissent in their home countries. For example, East Asian nations have used Confucianism as an argument against liberal democracy. New technologies then will merely continue a dialogue that others cannot hear but they do so at many levels now – the space of nationalism becomes wider and thus sovereignty harder to maintain.  But while it might be argued that this is so for the US and European nations, that the Net limits their sovereignty, this forgets that the creators, the designers and the value adders are from the US largely.

Thus, before we enter global conversations we need to undo the basis of such conversations asking who gets to speak; what discourses are silenced; and, what institutional power points are privileged?  We need to ask how the language of conversation enables particular peoples and not others (peoples as well as animals[xxxiv] and nature). We need to see particular linguistic movements as fragile spaces – as the victory of one way of knowing over other ways of knowing.  Our utterances are political in that they hide culture, gender and civilisation.  Conversations come to us as neutral spaces for created shared agreement but they are trojan horses carrying worldviews with them. For example, centre nations often want to enter into political reconciliation conversations with indigenous peoples but the style and structure of such conversations almost always reinscribe European notions of self and governance instead of indigenous notions of community and spirituality. By entering, for example, a parliament house or a constitutional convention, the indigenous person immediately enters a terrain outside of his and her value considerations – in fact, outside his or her non-negotiable basis of civilisation. As traditional Hawaiians say, the aina (land) is not negotiable, cannot be sold – it is rooted to history, to the ancestors and cannot enter exchange relations.[xxxv]  Hawaiians have been prodded by the US Federal government to engage in a constitutional convention to articulate their ideal state, governance system. As with traditional American conventions, delegates are to run and lobby for election, each one to act as a delegate and thereby somehow representing their nation. During the convention, they are to follow discussions and enter in conversations as bounded by Robert’s Rules of Order. However, for many Hawaiians entering a constitutional convention already limits the political choices they have. Ho’pono’pono, for example, as a method of negotiation – wherein ancestors are called, where all others are forgiven, where a shared spiritual and social space is created – is far more meaningful than the power worlds of suits and ties.

As a Maori elder has argued: Westerners want us to have a governance system based on parliamentary democracy wherein electoral legitimacy is based on full representation and attendance of delegates. In this system, the Maori are often chided for not showing up to meetings. What Westerners do not recognise, is that “they” is not only constituted by “physical beings”. More important than particular individuals showing up is if the mana shows up. If the mana is not there then it does not matter if all voted in unanimity. Having or not having mana determines civilisational success. Merely voting, while perhaps a necessary condition, is not a sufficient condition. One’s relationship with the mana is. Representation by the Maori and the Hawaiians is made problematic – one person, one vote is part of the story but it misses the expanded communicative community of other cultures, including the special voices of elders (those who dream the past) and of angels (and other non-human beings who affect day to day life) as well as of the community as whole.  Finally it misses the mana, that there is more to a person or to a community than its human population.

Conversation then is more than being able to access different web pages of Others. A global village is not created by more information transfer.  Conversation is also more than about equals meeting around a table but also asking what type of table should we meet around? What type of food is served? Who is fasting? Should food be eaten on the ground? Who should serve? Is there prayer before eating? When should there be speech? When silence?[xxxvi] What constitutes information transfer? When is there communication? The meanings we give to common events must be civilisationally contextualised.  Libraries, for example, create knowledge categories that are political, that is, they reflect the history of Western knowledge. These divisions of knowledge – the floors of a library – bear little relationship to the orderings of other civilisations where reality does not consist of divisions between art, science, social science, government documents and other. The Web, however, does to some extent create a new global library, which allows for democracy in terms of what is put on the Web and in terms of how it is accessed. Categories are more fluid, allowing for many orderings of information. At the same time, the web flattens reality to such an extent where all information is seen as equal, the vertical gaze of hierarchical knowledge – of knowing what is most important, what is deeper, what is lasting – is lost. Immediacy of the present all categories being equal results with the richness of epistemological space lost.

A REAL INFORMATION SOCIETY

A real information society, an ilm (knowledge in the Islamic worldview) world system would thus be one that was diverse in how it viewed knowledge, appreciating the different ways civilisations ordered the real.  It would not just be technical but emotional and spiritual as well and ultimately one that used knowledge to create better human conditions, to reduce dhukka (suffering) and realise moksa (spiritual liberation from the bonds of action and reaction). The challenge then is not just to increase our ability to produce and understand information but to enhance the capacity of the deeper layers of mind, particularly in developing the vijinanamaya kosa (where knowledge of what is eternal and temporal is realised).  Certainly, even though the Web is less rigid than a library, it is not the total information technology some assume – spiritual energies and shamanistic dissenting spaces cannot enter. Of course, underlying an alternative view of an information society is a commitment to prama or a dynamic equilibrium wherein internal/external and spiritual/material are balanced.

The issue is more than equality but the illumination of difference – difference at the level of political-economy, at the level of epistemology, of worldview.  Information is not information and knowledge is not knowledge.

But for the moderns, these concepts are understood by characterising the other as existing in religious worldviews.  Following Comte and Spencer, as the intellect develops, philosophy and then later science flourishes – real knowledge, objective science, that can lead to commercial success arises. Other ways of knowing become characterised as backward, or in more generous terms as not having access to enough information. With full information, ignorance is reduced and the objective revealed. In contrast, for non-Western civilisations, it is the subjectivisation of information that is far more important (with Islam trying to balance the subjective and objective).[xxxvii] Moreover, the division between secular and religious is less strict.

But the techno-optimists of the information postmodern society believe that these differences between worldviews can be accommodated.  By decentralising power, the new technologies allow the spirit of the individual to thrive. Through the internet, we will all be wired one day happily communicating all day long – that difference will lead to a space of communicating equals all sharing a confidence in world connectivity.  The noosphere imagined by Teilhard de Chardin is just years away.  But what type of connectivity will it be? While certainly email helped the Belgrade student and opposition movement of 1997 gain world – Western – support, the Algerian Muslims equally deprived of electoral victory have received few hits on their Websites. What happened to our image of an objective information rich society where more information leads to wiser and fairer decisions?

POSTMODERN NETS

Time writer Julian Dibble believes that the Belgrade revolt was an internet revolution since it was the one media the fascist Milosevic regime did not manage to control. Certainly access to the rest of the world through email provided important emotional support and it provided an antidote to the pro-Milosovic government reporting, as evidenced in Australian TV newscoverage through the SBS channel.  However, the revolution “succeeded” because of other factors.  The US’s clear warning to Milosevic that violence to protesters would have severe repercussions (at the very least the reinstatement of sanctions), the creative non-violent tactics of students (the revolt tactician was a theatre director) and loss of right-wing nationalistic (fascist) support to Milosevic since he was now seen not as the father of a Serbian homeland but the one who sold out the Serbs in Krajina. The internet was neither a necessary nor a sufficient factor. Mass protest, a neutral Army, support from the powerful military nations, threat of UN sanctions and courage of individual women and men in the face of policy brutality were.  But the process of the mythification of the internet continues.

Information optimists remain convinced that more information about others leads automatically to a better world. For example, in an article by Anthony Spaeth at the recent Davos World Economic Forum, he writes that South African Thabmo Mbeiki, the Executive Deputy President, said that if South Africa had been connected, there would not have been apartheid.[xxxviii]  Somehow despots are undermined by the Web, racism disappears once we have more information about events.  However in the very same issue of Time we are told that the best predictor of one’s view of American football player OJ Simpson’s guilt or innocence was race.[xxxix] Irrespective of any evidence or objective information, black Americans were far more likely to believe in his innocence, white americans in his guilt.  Clearly being wired is only one factor in determining how one sees the world. The US is internet connected and yet two groups separated only by a bit of skin colour can see the world so differently. Information is obviously not so flat. For Blacks the trial was about history, about inequity in the US as well as about how they see themselves constructed by white Americans (as an inch removed from barbarism). For Whites it was more evidence that blacks are dangerous irrespective of their “white” credentials.  To assume that more information leads to insight into others, misses the point. We make decisions based on many factors – conceptual information is just one of them.  Our own personal history, the trauma each one us has faced. Our moments of transcendence when we have gone beyond the trauma and not othered others (ie as less or evil or as a reified social category).  Civilisational factors and of course institutional barriers are other variables that mediate both the introduction and dissemination of technology but as well as how technology is constituted.

But others believe the Net can be about transcendence. Sherry Turkle argues that the internet allows us to delink from our physical identity and gain some distance from our personal traumas.[xl] We can play at being female or male, human or animal, diseased or health. She describes stories of healing where women and men understand their own pathologies better through play with other identities.  However, she was not so thrilled when others created a character called Dr. Sherry, that is the foundational basis for her identity was suddenly questioned.  Of course, it is easier to play (assuming other identities in fun) when one has a sovereign coherent identity and when one is still making one’s historical identity.  Identity play as postmodern irony is a far more painful episode when one has had identity systematically removed. Among others, Asians and Africans are currently undergoing such a trauma, between imposed selves, a range of historical selves and desired future selves. Turkle forgets is that it is not just Websurfers who have many identities. Colonised people have always had an ability to be multi-selved, not for play, though, but for survival. For example, survival for Indians during British rule meant creating a British self, holding on to a historic self and a synthetic self. While multi-tasking might be the craze today and for Douglas Rushkoff[xli] the most important ingredient for success tomorrow, it is not just playing on computers that create multi-tasking, as any mother will tell, having children is the true teacher of multi-tasking.

Internet enthusiasts forget that the wiring of the globe means the wiring of the worst of ourselves and the best of ourselves. Evil and goodness can travel through broadband. Technology is political, constitutive of values and not merely a carrier. The information era remains described in apolitical terms forgetting the culture of technology creating it, forgetting the class (Marx) and varna (Sarkar) basis of these technologies, that is, they exist in the end days of capitalism, and it forgets that Net privileges certain values over others.  We need to remember that if there were 100 people with all existing ratios the same, 70 would be unable to read, 50 would suffer from malnutrition, 80 would live in sub-standard housing, and only one would have a college education.[xlii]

Also forgotten is that merely entering a cyberworld makes no promise of justice or global fairness.  And as South African Mikebe will find out, his nation will enter the world information system not on their terms, their categories, their view of history but on the views of those with the most definitional power.  Currently, the world guilt ratio favours South Africa. That will certainly change as it is currently with US anger at South Africa’s selling of arms to Syria (ethical arms trading, it is now called).

At the same time, even with the limits of Webspace, as the Zapatista have managed to do, a revolution of land and labor can, while not be won in cyberworld, certainly be kept alive there.[xliii]  Through numerous Web sites and quick access to international human rights organisations and other NGOs, the power of the Mexican state to obliterate the Zapatistas is dramatically reduced. When local power is not enough, movements can enter the global ecumene and find moral power from international society, speeding up the creation of a global ohana. Clearly the Web has changed the relationships between oppressor and oppressed, between national totalitarianism and movements of dissent. Indeed, Sardar writes that CD-ROM has the potential to change power relations between individuals and religious scholars (who served as human memory banks controlling the intrepretations of what one should or should not do as a Muslim). By making vast amounts of information easy to access and thus allowing Muslims to interpret themselves truth claims made by a particular class of people. “Islamic culture could be remade, refreshed and re-established by the imaginative use of a new communication technology.”[xliv] But perhaps this is too hopeful, expert information systems can be designed that reinforce the views of the mullah class, interpretations can be framed so that their power base and their view of Islam continues.

The ubiquitous power of the Web is such that one cannot escape it – there is no luddite[xlv] space available, one has to enter the technology and do one’s best to make it reflect one’s own values and culture. But technology more than a site of progress must be located as a site of contending politics.

We thus need to ask if the Web and the promised information world change the hegemony of the West (here now extending West outside of its geographical borders to cosmology, a way of knowing) – ie definitional power, deciding what is truth, reality and beauty; temporal power, deciding what historical landmarks calender the world, eg that 21C is arriving; spatial power, imagining space as urban, secular (without feng shui or local knowledge) and to be owned; and economic power (upward movement of wealth from the periphery to the centre). Clearly it does not. It does give more pockets of dissent and it has now once again packaged dissent as a Website – with the right graphics, name, format and sexy catch words (and payment to search engines to ensure one’s Website comes up first).

The challenge for cultures facing cyberworld ahead is to find ways to enter global conversations, that is, to protect local ways of knowing and at the same time enter the end of history with new ways of knowing – worlds beyond the information era. This is a far more daunting task than cross-cultural communication. It is a vision of a gaia of civilisations.  It is a deep global conversation that admits metaconversations.[xlvi]  To do so, one cannot be a luddite.  Historical change happens because of environmental clash and cohesion and because of the clash of ideas. But it also occurs because of a desire for something other – an attraction to the Great, in sanskrit, for ananda. Science and technology thus must be seen in cultural terms (what ways of knowing they privilege) but also in terms of their political economy (who owns them and how the benefits are distributed) but even as we evoke non-linear images of time, space and spirit, there is a crucial linear progressive dimension to history, of increasing rights for all, of some possibility of decreasing levels of exploitation (through social innovation). The enlightenment project, however, must be seen in the context of others – civilisations and worldview.  Moreover, it is not perfection of society that must be sought as in the Western project, since this means the elimination of all that is other, nor is it the perfection of the self as in the hindu tradition, since this avoids structural inequity. It is the creation of eutopias – good societies. Technology balanced with the finer dimensions of human culture can provide that upward movement in history and Antonio Gramsci warned, we must not be excited by rubbish – A gaia of civilisations cannot occur in the context of the deep inequity of the world capitalist system.

A Gaia Of Civilisations

We thus need to imagine and help create social spaces so the new technologies participate in and allow for the coming of a real planetary culture, a gaia of civilisations; one where there is deep multi-culturalism and where the epistemologies of varied cultures – how they see self and other are respected – flourish.  To realise this, open communication and travel are necessary factors but they are not sufficient. Interaction amongst equals and not merely information transfer, that is to say a right to communication is needed as well.

Finally, instead of seeing culture as rigid and fixed, we need to remember that cultures have more resilience than governments give them credit for.  For example, while India might be made problematic by Disneyland, Indic civilisation will not be since it has seen the rise and fall of claims to world empire repeated many times. Pax Americana will go the way of the British Empire, which went the way of the Moguls.  Indeed, the strength of Indian culture and other historical civilizations (especially the West and particularly the United States) is its ability to localise the foreign, to localise english, to localise western MTV, to create its own culture industries. Culture and identity then is fluid. When the powerless meet the powerful, confrontation need not be direct. It could be at different levels, wherein the powerful are seduced then changed – where, at least in the Indian tradition, all enter as foreigners but leave culturally transformed, as eclectic hindus.

What we also learn from other cultures is that the new electronic technologies are just one of the possible technologies creating world space. Indeed they just act at the most superficial levels. As important as cyberspace is microvita space or the noosphere being created through our world imaginations. Indian mystic P.R. Sarkar reminds us that behind our wilful actions is the agency of microvita – the basic substance of existence, which is both mental and physical, mind and body.  Microvita can be used by minds (the image of monks on the Himalayas sending out positive thoughts is the organising metaphor here, as is the Muslim prayer in unison throughout the world with direction and focus) to change the vibrational levels of humans, making them more sensitive to others, to nature and to the divine. And as Sheldrake reminds, as images and beliefs of one diverse world become more common it will be easier to imagine one world and live as one world, as a blissful universal family.  The Web then can participate in the historical decolonisation process giving power to communities and individuals in the overall context of global human, economic, environmental and cultural rights.

Or can it?

Notes

[i].          The words of Pakistani socialist poet Faiz Ahmed Faiz.

[ii].          Nearly every brochure on the benefits on the new communication technologies begins with that phrase. The future is seen solely in technological terms.

[iii].         See, for example, William E. Halal, “The Rise of the Knowledge Entrepreneur,” The Futurist (Vol. 20, No. 7, November-December 1996), pages 13-16. Halal writes that in the US “Blue-collar workers should dwindle from 20% of the US work force in 1995 to 10% or less within a decade or two. …non-professional white-collar workers [will be reduced] from 40% to 20%-30%. The remaining 60%-70% or so of the work force may then be composed of knowledge workers. …meanwhile, productivity, living standards and the quality of life will soar to unprecedented levels,” page 13.

Also see, The Think Tank Directory in which it is reported that the number of think tanks have exploded from 62 in 1945 to 1200 in 1996. For more information on this email: grs@cjnetworks.com or write 214 S.W. 6th Avenue, Suite 301, Topeka, KS 66603, USA.

[iv].         One of the six schools of classical Indian philosophy. Only Brahman, the supreme consciousness, is postulated as real. Everything else is but an illusion – maya.

[v].         Majid Tehranian, “Totems and Technologies,” Intermedia 14(3), 1986, page 24.

[vi].         I am indebted to Ashis Nandy for this term, although he calls it, “A gaia of cultures.” See Eleonora Masini and Yogesh Atal, eds., The Futures of Asian Cultures (Bangkok, UNESCO, 1993) for more on this theme.

[vii].        See, S.C Gwynne and John F. Dickerson, “Lost in the E-Mail,” Time (April 21, 1997), pages 64-66.  They report on the dangers in businesses when bosses use email to berate employees, creating considerable ill-will and inefficiencies. Email exports the anger of the sender to the receiver. Diane Morse Houghten writes that “E-mail leaves a lot of blank spaces in what we say, which the recipient tends to fill with the most negative interpretation” (page 65).

To avoid sending the wrong message, four rules are suggested: “(1) Never discuss bad news, never criticize and never discuss personal issues over email. And if there’s a chance that what you say could be taken the wrong way, wlakd down the hall to discuss it in person or pick up the phone” (page 66).

[viii].       Lyn Simpson, head of the School of Communications, Queensland University of Technology reports on a disastrous result of an email sent to school students. Asked if they were interested in greater liaison/representation of students in faculty committees, she was treated to a barage of obscenities. When reminded that email was a privilege and not a right of registered students, the obscenities did not subside.  Whether this was because of pent up frustration of students towards the university or a response to the formal tone of Professor Simpson’s message is not clear. Certainly, none of them would have expressed vulgarities in face to face communication. Moreover, they were not bothered by the fact that their messages had their return email addresses on them, that is to say, they could be easily identified.

[ix].         For more on the temporal hegemony, particularly in the construction of the 21st century as neutral universal timing instead of as particular to the West, see Sohail Inayatullah, “Listening to Non-Western Perspectives” in David Hicks and Richard Slaughter, eds, 1998 Education Yearbook (Kogan Page, 1998).

[x].         Zia Sardar, “alt.civilizations.fax Cyberspace as the darker side of the west,” Futures, 27(7), September 1995, pages 777-995.

[xi].         On one public newsgroup the following message on May 6, 1996 was posted to the question: what would you do with an unconscious womans body?  According to Walter Sharpless, he would: Well if it were a 8 year old boy’s body, i would … the rest is too pornographic (even from extreme libertarian positions) to report especially since it concludes with  … Thank you for all your time. it has been very satisfying knowing you will read this.

In response, was the equally stunning response from Max Normal: “Now here’s a guy that needs therapy .. the twelve gauge kind! a 44 mag would be more in line … with the brain that is.” What is not contested is the pornographic nature of the initial question ie “what would you do with an ….”

Internet as necessarily a progressive form of knowledge? Perhaps not.

[xii].        Marshall McLuhan quoted in New Internationalist special issue titled, “Seduced by Technology: The human costs of computers” New Internationalist, 286, December 1996, page 26.

[xiii].       Zia Sardar, “The future of democracy and human rights,” Futures, 28(9), November, 1996, page 847.

[xiv].       Sohail Inayatullah, “Frames of Reference, The Breakdown of the Self and the Search for Reintegration” in Eleonora Masini and Yogesh Atal, eds. The Futures of Cultures (Bangkok, Unesco, 1993).

[xv].        See Vuokko Jarva, “Feminst Research, Feminist Futures, Futures (forthcoming). Also see, Vuokka Jarva, “Towards Female Futures Studies,” Rick Slaughter, ed., The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies: Directions and Outlooks. Vol. 3 (Melbourne, DDM Media Group, 1996), pages 3-20. Women’s inner circle of reproduction and the home will thus be transformed but without entry into the male sphere of production and the public – they will lose their traditional source of power and history, and as they are not participating in the creating of the new technologies, they will enter a new unfamiliar world with few sites to locate their selves. Indeed, the new technologies are attempts, argues Jarva, to dismantle the women’s sphere dimensions of the welfare state.

[xvi].       See Dale Spender, Nattering on the Net: Women, Power and Cyberspace (North Melbourne, Spinifex Press, 1996)  and Lynn Cherny and Elizabeth Reba Weise, eds., Wired_Women: Gender and New Realities in Cyberspace (Seattle, Seal Press, 1996). For an excellent review, see Carmel Shute, “Women With Byte,” Australian Women’s Book Review 8(3), October, 1996, pages 8-10.

[xvii].      Some, of course, are already doing this in sophisticated ways. Margarat Grace, June Lennie, Leonie Daws, Lyn Simpson and Roy Lundin argue in Enhancing Rural Women’s Access to Interactive Communication Technologies (Interim Report, The Communication Centre, Queensland University of Technology, April 1997) that email is a soft technology, it can be led in appropriate directions given the appropriate context.  In their research, they have found that by guided moderation, by creating conditions in which community and connectedness can develop, email can be beneficial for all concerned.  Thus it is not just the technology but the cultural framework. In their case, they found that a community was created among rural women in Queensland, Australia.  While contentious issues where not swept away, they were raised in gentle ways, wherein women would “test the waters” to see if a certain behavior was ok with others. It was done in a way not to make others wrong but to learn from each other.  This is in contrast to many user groups, private email communication, wherein since the emotional, face-to-face dimensions are not visible, small issues lead to troublesome relationships, undoing rather than enhancing communication. The conclusion by Grace and others is that email, given appropriate moderation and an appropriate cultural contest (in this case a womanist framework) can be a medium that helps create a more communicative society, at least among rural women.

[xviii].     Barrie Sherman and Phil Judkins, Glimpses of Heaven, Visions of Hell: Virtual Reality and its Implications (London, Hodder and Stoughton, 1992).  See chapter 14, “A New World for Women.”

[xix].       Comments given after the presentation of my paper on “Communication, information and the Net.” Paper presented at the “Women and the Net” UNESCO/SID meeting held in Santiago de Compostelo, Spain, May 20, 1997.  Wendy Harcourt is the principle organizer of this group. Lourdes Arzipe has provided the UNESCO leadership behing the women and the net project.

[xx].        Dale Spender quoted in Carmel Shute, “Women With Byte” page 9.

[xxi].       Ismail Serageldin in “Islam, Science and Values,” International Journal of Science and Technology, Spring 1996, 9(2), 1996, pages 100-114 compiles an impressive array of statistics.  “Items in the Library of Congress are doubling every 14 years and, at the rate things are going, will soon be developing every 7 years. …In the US, there are 55,000 trade books published annually. …The gap of scientists and engineers in North and South is vast with 3800 per million in the US and 200 per million in the South. … [Finally], currently a billion email messages pass between 35 million users, and the volume of traffic on the Internet is doubling every 10 months,” 100-101.  Of course, why anyone would want to count email messages is the key issue – as ridiculous would be to count the number of words said daily through talking, or perhaps even count the silence inbetween words.

[xxii].      Nicholas Negroponte, Being Digital (London, Hodder and Stoughton, 1995), page 230. For a critical view of such claims, see the brilliant essay by Kevin Robins, “The new communications geography and the politics of optimism,” pages 199-210 in Danielle Cliche, ed., Cultural Ecology: the changing dynamics of communications (London, International Institute of Communications, 1997).

[xxiii].     Bill Gates, The Road Ahead (London, Viking, 1995), page 273 quoted in Kevin Robins, op cit. reference 22.

[xxiv].     Mark Pesche, “Proximal and Distal Unity.” Paper available at: http:www.hyperreal.com/~mpesce/pdu/html. Quoted in Duane Elgin and Coleen Drew, Global Consciousness Change: Indicators of an Emerging Paradigm (San Anselmo, California, The Millennium Project, 1997). See, in particular, pages 6-9 on the global consciousness and the Communications revolution. They are hopeful that the emerging global brain – signified by the ever increasing web of communication conducted through the internet – will achieve a critical mass and turn on (page 8). Writes Peter Russel, “Billions of messages continually shuttle back and forth, in an ever-growing web of communication, linking billions of minds of humanity into a single system,” page 8. See, Peter Russell, The Global Brain Awakens (Palo Alto, California, Global Brain, Inc, 1995).

[xxv].      Stated on the television show Sixty Minutes, Channel 9, Brisbane, Australia, March 16.

[xxvi].     While these are optimistic forecasts, Roar Bjonnes reports that according to The Nation Magazine “368 of the world’s richest pople own as much wealth as 40% of the world’s poor. In other words, 368 billionaires own as much as 2.5 billion poor people. Moreover, the trend is toward greater inequity with the “share of global income between the world’s rich and the world’s poor doubling from 30-1 in 1960 to 59 to 1, in 1989. The information revolution will have to be quite dramatic to reverse these figures. Email: Rbjonnes@igc.apc.org, 13 August 1995. Bjonnes is former editor of Commonfuture and Prout Journal.

[xxvii].    Staff, “The Future of Warfare,” The Economist (March 8, 1997), page 21.

[xxviii].    Ibid.

[xxix].     For more on this see: Sohail Inayatullah, “United We Drink: Inquiries into the Future of the World Economy and Society,” Papers De Prospectiva (April 1995), pages 4-31.

[xxx].      “Niue takes moral stand on sex lines,” The Courier-Mail (February 20, 1997), page 19.

[xxxi].     P.R. Sarkar, The Human Society (Calcutta, AM Publications, 1984), page 97.

[xxxii].    P.R. Sarkar, Problem of the Day (Ananda Nagar, India, AM Publications, 1959), page 3. The corporatist framework of the the new information technologies, of the information superhighway, removes them from state control and from people’s democratic control. “This technology legitimates the hegemony of corporate interests,” writes Kosta Gouliamos. See Kosta Gouliamos, “The information highway and the diminution of the nation-state,” page 182 in Danielle Cliche, Cultural Ecology, op cit.

[xxxiii].    Julie Stephens, “Running Interference: An Interview with Gayatri Chakravorty Spivak,”  Australian Women’s Books Review, 7(3/4), 1995, page 27.

[xxxiv].   For more on the silence of animals, that is how discourse silences them, see New Renaissance, 5(2), 1995. The focus of that issue is on the silence of the lambs.

[xxxv].    Of course, few Islanders have managed to maintain this level of purity. Rather, land has been sold to others for short term profits.  However, by selling land (and not using it to develop through agro-industries and manufacturing), Pacific Islands remain locked at the bottom of the world capitalist system.

[xxxvi].   For more on the communicative role of silence, see The Unesco Courier (May 1996). The issue focuses on the ontology of silence.

[xxxvii].   Email transmission from Acarya Abhidevananda Avadhuta. March 1997. On Ananda-net.

[xxxviii].  Anthony Spaeth, “@ the Web of Power,” Time (February 17, 1997), page 67.

[xxxix].   Christopher Darden, “Justice is in the Colour of the Beholder,” Time (February 17, 1997), pages 30-31.

[xl].         Sherry Turkle, Life on the Screen: Identity in the Age of the Internet (London, Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1996).

[xli].        Douglas Rushkoff, Children of Chaos (New York, HarperCollins, 1997).

[xlii].       “What’s happening in the global village,” Asian Mass Communication Bulletin 26(5), 1996, page 17. Also important is to note that “electricity is still not available for two billion people and many others have only intermittent access.” See, The Global Futures Bulletin, No. 38/39, July 1, 1997. Available on-line from the Institute of Global Futures Research, P.O. Box 683, NSW, 2022, Australia. igfr@peg.apc.org

[xliii].      Kathleen Grassel, “Mexico’s Zapatistas: Revolution on the Internet” New Renaissance (Vol. 7, No. 2, 1997, pages 22-23. They are just one example, hundreds of non-governmental organisation use the internet as a way to pressurize governments and corporations by making their policies more public. Email campaigns for world peace, to stop tortures of prisoners throughout the world or to save vegetarian orphanages as, for example, in Romania (on Ananda-net) where, for example, vegetarians sucessfully campaigned against a preliminary decision by a Romanian agency (Protection of Minors Agency) to close an award winning Ananda Marga school since it did not feed students dead/cooked animals ie meat. Inundated with faxes and letters from all around the world, including the entire gamut of vegetarian/health organisations, the Romanian agency relented. Whether this was because of the international nature of the pressure – because they did not want to be seen as parochial -or because of a change of heart towards dietary practices is not clear.

[xliv].      Zia Sardar, “Paper, printing and compact disks: the making and unmaking of Islamic culture,” Media, Culture and Society, 15, 1993, 56.

[xlv].       Although Kirpatrick Sale’s recent article makes this word now problematic. He argues that Ned Ludd’s effort were not simplistic attacks on technology but an understanding that the new technologies were increasing the power of the masters. “The Luddite idea has … flourished wherever technology has destroyed jobs, ruined lives and torn up communities.” Kirpatrick Sale, “Ned Ludd live!” New Internationalist, (286, December 1996), page 29. The entire issue is a must read. Ashis Nandy has taken a similar position in his essays sympathetic to the Gandhian critique of technology.

[xlvi].      For the problems and possibilities of this approach see, Ceees J. Hamelink, “Learning cultural pluralism: can the `Information Society’ help?” pages 24-43 in Danielle Cliche, Cultural Ecology.

Deconstructing the Information Era (1997)

By Sohail Inayatullah, 1997

Has The Future Arrived?

Many claim that with the advent of the web and internet, the future has arrived. The dream of an interconnected planet where physical labor becomes minimally important and knowledge creation becomes the source of value and wealth appears to now here. But perhaps the “cyber/information era” view of the future is overly linear, exponentially so, and forgetful that two-thirds of the world does not have a phone and much of the world lives over two hours from a phone connection.

While new technologies has speeded up time for the elite West and the elite in the non-West, for the majority of the world there is no information era.  Moreover, in the hyperjump to starspace, we have forgotten that while ideas and the spirit can soar, there are cyclical processes, such as the life and death of individuals, nations and civilisations that cannot be so easily transformed. There are more people making their living by processing ideas,[i]

Perhaps we are engaged in a non-productive pyramid scheme where we are getting further and further away from food production and manufacturing, building virtualities on virtualites until there is nothing there, as in advaita vedanta[ii] wherein the world is maya, an illusion.

The coming of the information era, ostensibly providing untold riches in bits of freedom for all, in fact limits the futures of others because it robs them of their future alternatives. Reality has become constructed as the worldwideweb, but perhaps this web is Max Weber’s iron cage – the future with no exit, wherein there is an inverse relationship between data and wisdom, between quick bytes and long term commitment, between engagement to technology and engagement with humans, plants and animals.  We know now from email culture that the twin dangers of immediacy and speed do not lead to greater community and friendship, rather they can lead to bitter misunderstandings.[iii]

Email then is perhaps not the great connector leading to higher levels of information but the great disconnector that gives the mirage of connection and community.  Email without occasional face to face communication can transform friendships into antagonistic relationships. Just as words lose the informational depth of silence, email loses information embedded in silence and face to face gestures.  The assimilation and reflection as well as the intuition and the insight needed to make sense of intellectual and emotional data are lost as the urgent need to respond to others quickens. Slow time, lunar time, women’s time, spiritual timeless time, cyclical rise and fall time and circular seasonal time are among the victims, leading to temporal impoverishment, a loss of temporal diversity where “21C” is for all instead of peculiar to Western civilisation.[iv]

Cybertechnologies thus create not just rich and poor in terms of information, but a world of quick inattentive time and slow attentive time. One is committed to quick money and quick time, a world where data and information are far more important than knowledge and wisdom.  Cybertechnologies not only create an information rich and poor but also an information quick and slow. Time on the screen is different from time spent gazing at sand in the desert or wandering in the Himalayas. Screen time does not slow the heart beat down relaxing one into the superconscious, rather we become lost in many bits, creating perhaps an era of accelerating information but certainly not a knowledge future or a future where the subtle mysteries of the world, the spiritual everpresent is felt.

This quickening of the self was anticipated by McLuhan in 1980.  “Excessive speed of change isolates already fragmented individuals. At the speed [speech] of light man has neither goals, objectives or private identity. He is an item in the data bank – software only, easily forgotten – and deeply resentful.[v]

Selves lose reflective space, jumping from one object to another, one Website to another, one email to another.  It is not a communicative world that will transpire but a world of selves downloading their emotional confusion onto each other.  Writes Zia Sardar, “Far from creating a community based on consensus, the information technologies could easily create states of alienated and atomised individuals, glued to their computer terminal, terrorising and being terrorised by all those whose values conflict with their own.”[vi] It is as if we have all become psychic with all thoughts interpenetrating creating a global schizophrenia.[vii]

THE GREAT LEAP FORWARD

But for cyber enthusiasts, new technologies give more choice. They reduce the power of Big business and Big State, creating a vast frontier for creative individuals to explore. “Cyberspace has the potential to be egalitarian, to bring everyone into a network arrangement. It has the capacity to create community; to provide untold opportunities for communication, exchange and keeping in touch.”[viii]

Cybertechnologies will allow more interaction creating a global ecumene. They create wealth, indeed, a jump in wealth.  The new technologies promise a transformational society where the future is always beckoning, a new discovery is yearly.[ix]

The oppressive dimensions of bounded identity – to nation, village, gender, culture – will all disappear as we move in and out of identities and communities.  It is the end of scarcity as an operating myth and the beginning of abundance, of information that wants to be free. The late 20th century is the demarcation from the industrial to the information/knowledge era. Progress is occurring now. Forget the cycle of rise and fall and life and death. That was but misinformation.

But while the growth data looks impressive and the stock of Microsoft continues upward, there are some hidden costs. For example, what of negative dimensions of the new technologies such as surveillance? Police in Brisbane, Australia use up to a 100 hidden cameras in malls to watch for criminal activities.[x]

Hundreds more are anticipated creating an electronic grid in central Brisbane. While this might be possibly benign in Brisbane (Aborigines might have different views though), imagining a large grid over Milosevic’s Yugoslavia or Taliban’s Afghanistan (or under Zia-ul Haq’s Pakistan where every “immoral” gaze would have led to arrest) it is enough to frighten the most fanatical techno-optimist. Or is it? Many believe that privacy issues will be forgotten dimensions of the debate on cyberfutures once we each have our own self-encryptors so that no one can read or enter us (the 21st century chastity belt). Technology will tame technology. Over time, the benefits of the new technologies will become global with poverty, homelessness and anomie all wiped out. All will eventually have access – even the poorest – as the billions of brains that we are, once connected, will solve the many problems of oppression.[xi]

While we have always imagined such a future, it is only now that technology allows it so.

While cyber-enthusiasts rightfully point to the opportunities of the one world created by new technologies. But they forget that the one world of globalism remains fundamentally capitalistic with the local (local economy and power over one’s future) increasingly being attacked. The tiny Pacific Island of Niue recently discovered that 10% of its national revenue was being sucked out through international sex-line services.[xii]

The information era as P.R. Sarkar points out is late capitalism, a system in which all other varnas – psycho-social classes and ways of knowing (the intellectual, the worker and the warrior)  – become the “boot lickers of the merchants.”[xiii]

And: “In order to accumulate more and more in their houses, they torture others to starvation … they suck the very living plasma of others to enrich the capabilities.”[xiv]

While intellectuals invent metaphors of postmodernity and post-industrialism, capital continues to accumulate unevenly, the poor become poorer and less powerful (however, they can now have a Website).  The information era still exists in the context of the world capitalist system – it is not an external development of it, and it will not create the contradictions that end it. The knowledge society or non-material society that many futurists imagine conveniently forgets humans’ very real suffering. But for virtual realities, we have virtual theories.

A REAL INFORMATION SOCIETY

Still, there are progressive dimensions to the new technologies. As Fatma Aloo of the Tanzanian Media Women’s Association argues, “They are a necessarily evil.”[xv]

Women and other marginalised groups must use and design them for their own empowerment or they will be further left out and behind.

What is needed then is the creation of a progressive information society. It would be a world sytem that was diverse in how it viewed knowledge, appreciating the different ways civilisations ordered the real.  It would not just be technical but emotional and spiritual as well and ultimately one that used knowledge to create better human conditions, to reduce dhukka (suffering) and realise moksa (spiritual liberation from the bonds of action and reaction). The challenge then is not just to increase our ability to produce and understand information but to enhance the capacity of the deeper layers of mind, particularly in developing the vijinanamaya kosa (where knowledge of what is eternal and temporal is realised).  Certainly, even though the Web is less rigid than a library, it is not the total information technology some assume – spiritual energies and shamanistic dissenting spaces cannot enter. Of course, underlying an alternative view of an information society is a commitment to prama or a dynamic equilibrium wherein internal/external and spiritual/material are balanced.

A GAIA OF CIVILISATIONS

We thus need to imagine and help create social spaces so the new technologies participate in and allow for the coming of a real global civilisation, a gaia of cultures. One where there is deep multi-culturalism, where the epistemologies of varied cultures – how they see self and other are respected – flourish.  To realise this, open communication and travel are necessary.  But certainly not enough.

What we also learn from other cultures is that the new electronic technologies are just one of the possible technologies creating world space. Indeed they just act at the most superficial levels. As important as cyberspace is microvita space or the noosphere being created through our world imaginations. Mystic P.R. Sarkar reminds us that behind our wilful actions is the agency of microvita – the basic substance of existence, which is both mental and physical, mind and body.  Microvita can be used by minds (the image of monks on the Himalayas sending out positive thoughts is the organising metaphor here, as is the Muslim prayer in unison throughout the world with direction and focus) to change the vibrational levels of humans, making them more sensitive to others, to nature and to the divine. And as Sheldrake reminds, as images and beliefs of one diverse world become more common it will be easier to imagine one world and live as one world, as a blissful universal family.  The Web then can participate in the historical decolonisation process giving power to communities and individuals in the overall context of global human, economic, environmental and cultural rights.

Or can it?

[i].          See, for example, William E. Halal, “The Rise of the Knowledge Entrepreneur,” The Futurist (November-December 1996), pages 13-16. Halal writes that in the US “Blue-collar workers should dwindle from 20% of the US work force in 1995 to 10% or less within a decade or two. …non-professional white-collar workers [will be reduced] from 40% to 20%-30%. The remaining 60%-70% or so of the work force may then be composed of knowledge workers. …meanwhile, productivity, living standards and the quality of life will soar to unprecedented levels,” page 13.

Also see, The Think Tank Directory in which it is reported that the number of think tanks have exploded from 62 in 1945 to 1200 in 1996. For more information on this email: grs@cjnetworks.com or write 214 S.W. 6th Avenue, Suite 301, Topeka, KS 66603, USA.

[ii].          One of the six schools of classical Indian philosophy. Only Brahman, the supreme consciousness, is postulated as real. Everything else is but an illusion – maya.

[iii].         See, S.C Gwynne and John F. Dickerson, “Lost in the E-Mail,” Time (April 21, 1997), pages 64-66.  They report on the dangers in businesses when bosses use email to berate employees, creating considerable ill-will and inefficiencies. Email exports the anger of the sender to the receiver. Diane Morse Houghten writes that “E-mail leaves a lot of blank spaces in what we say, which the recipient tends to fill with the most negative interpretation” (page 65).

To avoid sending the wrong message, four rules are suggested: “(1) Never discuss bad news, never criticize and never discuss personal issues over email. And if there’s a chance that what you say could be taken the wrong way, wlakd down the hall to discuss it in person or pick up the phone” (page 66).

[iv].         For more on the temporal hegemony, particularly in the construction of the 21st century as neutral universal timing instead of as particular to the West, see Sohail Inayatullah, “Listening to Non-Western Perspectives” in David Hicks and Richard Slaughter, eds, 1998 Education Yearbook (Kogan Page, 1998).

[v].         Marshall McLuhan quoted in New Internationalist special issue titled, “Seduced by Technology: The human costs of computers” New Internationalist, 286, December 1996, page 26.

[vi].         Zia Sardar, “The future of democracy and human rights,” Futures, 28(9), November, 1996, page 847.

[vii].        Sohail Inayatullah, “Frames of Reference, The Breakdown of the Self and the Search for Reintegration” in Eleonora Masini and Yogesh Atal, eds. The Futures of Cultures (Bangkok, Unesco, 1993).

[viii].       Dale Spender quoted in Carmel Shute, “Women With Byte” page 9.

[ix].         Ismail Serageldin in “Islam, Science and Values,” International Journal of Science and Technology, Spring 1996, 9(2), 1996, pages 100-114 compiles an impressive array of statistics.  “Items in the Library of Congress are doubling every 14 years and, at the rate things are going, will soon be developing every 7 years. …In the US, there are 55,000 trade books published annually. …The gap of scientists and engineers in North and South is vast with 3800 per million in the US and 200 per million in the South. … [Finally], currently a billion email messages pass between 35 million users, and the volume of traffic on the Internet is doubling every 10 months,” 100-101.  Of course, why anyone would want to count email messages is the key issue – as ridiculous would be to count the number of words said daily through talking, or perhaps even count the silence inbetween words.

[x].         Stated on the television show Sixty Minutes, Channel 9, Brisbane, Australia, March 16.

[xi].         While these are optimistic forecasts, Roar Bjonnes reports that according to The Nation Magazine “368 of the world’s richest pople own as much wealth as 40% of the world’s poor. In other words, 368 billionaires own as much as 2.5 billion poor people. Moreover, the trend is toward greater inequity with the “share of global income between the world’s rich and the world’s poor doubling from 30-1 in 1960 to 59 to 1, in 1989. The information revolution will have to be quite dramatic to reverse these figures. Email: Rbjonnes@igc.apc.org, 13 August 1995. Bjonnes is former editor of Commonfuture and Prout Journal.

[xii].        “Niue takes moral stand on sex lines,” The Courier-Mail (February 20, 1997), page 19.

[xiii].       P.R. Sarkar, The Human Society (Calcutta, AM Publications, 1984), page 97.

[xiv].       P.R. Sarkar, Problem of the Day (Ananda Nagar, India, AM Publications, 1959), page 3.

[xv].        Personal Comments to the author, Santiago de Compostelo, Spain, May 20, 1997.

The Multi-cultural Challenge to Future of Education (1996)

Sohail Inayatullah

“The Multi-Cultural Challenge to the Future of Education” Periodica Islamica (Vol. 6, No. 1, 1996), 35-40;

 

In the West, multi-culturalism has come to mean better representation of minorities in public and private sector positions of authority and equal opportunity in hiring practices. “Tolerance” for other racial, linguistic, and national groups has been the catch-phrase in the swing toward multi-culturalism, in the search for a rainbow culture. But among others, Speaker of the House of Representative of the USA, Newt Gingrich is suspicious. He has argued that multi-culturalism will destroy the idea of the American nation, indeed any nation. Multi-culturalism, particularly, multi-cultural education, is evil.

While it is easy to dismiss Gingrich as merely representing a type of fascism, in fact, multi-culturalism does threaten the nation-state. Bounded by the ideals of liberalism–individuality, one version of God, in the context of an efficient marketplace–the nation-state, if it were to yield to the demands of other cultures and civilizations, would find its very cultural existence threatened. It, the nation-state, would either (continue to) undergo a violent Balkanization or it could transcend its own limitations and become multi-civilizational and global. In a sense, Gingrich is thus right. Multi-culturalism is evil but only in the context of exclusive collective representations such as the nation-state.

For those committed to creating and participating in pedagogy that allows for the authentic voices of other civilizations–that overcome the limitations of the ego-bounded rationality of the Enlightenment–multi-cultural education is about transcending the text of nationalism and creating a new type of globalism. This then is a plea for the recognition of differences that are part of the postmodern thrust but not its conclusion; a climax neither in capitalist homogeneity nor postmodern nihilism but in life-embracing unity.

But what worries Gingrich (and many others in North and South alike) is that a pedagogy of difference will eliminate the nation-state developmentalist project, will undo the hard fought gains of the Enlightenment, of progress. For the West, multi-culturalism means that the Other–for example, as Woman, as Muslim, as Taoist, as Aboriginal–will have categories of self, community and God, represented as part of normal day-to-day pedagogy. For Third World nations, this means that dissent must become part of the curriculum; that the views of religious and cultural minorities should not be seen as threatening to the dominant religion or State ideology but as part of national richness; that opposition can only strengthen the post-colonial self, not damage it.

BEYOND SHALLOW LIBERALISM

But a civilizational renaissance is not about a simple plea to pluralism. Pluralism in democratic society is about many voices vying for attention. The best ideas win out. The role of the teacher is to fairly present differing perspectives. However, pluralism remains contextualised by liberalism. Thus pluralism as currently valorized is shallow. A deeper pluralism would ask: how do differing civilizations articulate the rights of the Other and what are the points of unity in these differences?

For example, while in liberal pluralism all values are open to individual choice, in Hawaiian civilization one does not choose aina (land not real estate) or one’s genealogical relationships with ancestors. They are deep givens. In Islamic civilization as well there are certain fundamentals that bound what is possible. In ancient Tantra, as articulated in this century by Shrii P.R. Sarkar, before pedagogy begins there are moments of meditation. This permits for the intellectual mind to become pointed allowing the intuitive self greater understanding of the topic at hand. Certainly daily Tantric (or any other type) meditation sessions are not what most modernist educators have in mind when arguing for “multi-cultural education”. Most either prefer a secular model where the day begins with the national anthem or a religious model where prayer towards a particular deity announces one’s allegiances.

Multi-cultural education is about creating structures and processes that allow for the expression of the many civilizations, communities and individuals that we are. To begin this enormous task, we must first contest the value neutrality of current institutions such as the library. For example, merely including texts from other civilizations does not constitute a multi-cultural library. Ensuring that the contents of texts are not ethnocentric is an important step but this does not begin to problematize the definitional categories used in conventional libraries. We need to ask what a library would look like if it used the knowledge paradigms of other civilizations? How would knowledge be rearranged? What would the library floors look like? In Hawaiian culture, for example, there might be floors for the Gods, for the aina and genealogy. In Tantra, empirical science would exist alongside intuitional science. Floor and shelve space would privilege the superconscious and unconscious layers of reality instead of only focusing on empirical levels of the real. In Islam, since knowledge is considered tawhidic (based on the unity of God), philosophy, science and religion would no longer occupy the discrete spaces they currently do. Of course, the spatiality of “floors” must also be deconstructed. Information systems from other civilizations might not privilege book-knowledge, focusing instead on story-telling and dreamtime as well as wisdom received from elders/ancestors (as in Australian Aboriginal) and perhaps even “angels” (either metaphorically or ontologically). A multi-cultural library might look like the emerging world wide web but include other alternative ways of knowing and being. Most certainly knowledge from different civilizations in this alternative vision of the “library” would not be relegated to a minor site or constituted as an exotic field of inquiry such as Asian, Ethnic or Feminist studies, as are the practices of current libraries. The homogeneity of the library as an organizing information system must be reconstructed if we are to begin to develop the conceptual framework of multi-cultural education. To do, we must further articulate the differences that define us.

METAPHORS OF DIFFERENCE

The metaphors we use about ourselves is one indicator of this difference. For example, while the image of the unbounded ocean might represent total choice to American culture–for Muslims, the image of the ocean is seen as absurd. It is direction, toward Mecca, that is more important. Choice is bounded by tradition and the collectivity of the Ummah (the global community). For those within the Tantric worldview, it is the image of Shiva dancing between life (knowledge) and death (ignorance) that is the defining metaphor. Shiva represents simultaneous destruction and creation–the cosmos and self in purposeful process. Within modernity, it is the dice representing randomness that holds sway on most. Things in themselves have no meaning or purpose. It is what humans choose to signify that is critical for moderns and postmoderns.

Differences in metaphors not only represent deep structures in terms of how civilizations view self, other, nature but also how we “language” the world. Language is not neutral but a carrier of civilizational values, actively constituting the real. Language has become a verb, an interactive practice in the creation of new worlds. For example, it is not so much that many of us now speak English but rather that we “english” the world in our knowing and learning efforts.

Multi-cultural education is thus not only about learning and teaching more than one language but also about seeing how languages construct worldviews. Committed to avoiding the pitfalls of cultural relativism, a critical pedagogy would also investigate the epistemic costs associated with any particular language and civilization, asking which perspectives are enriched, which impoverished? We thus argue for a pedagogy of deep difference, not a shallow interest focused on advertisements that create a mythology of “we are the world”.

These differences are critical not only at the civilizational level but at national and individual levels. How we constitute knowledge is not neutral but based on the structures of various knowledge cultures. American knowledge culture is far more focused on issues of empirical operationalization than in Indic culture, where theory a la spiritual knowledge is, in general, more important. The traditional vertical relationship between guru and disciple is central. German intellectual culture, while equally hierarchical, is more concerned with the great philosophies, with the thoughts of the Masters–Hegel, Kant, Marx, for example. True knowledge is about understanding these schools of thought.

How individuals search for information and truth within these cultures also differ. In one the search is for the best university, in another for the best guru, in the third for the best thinker. Of course, modernity has been about eliminating different styles and universalizing them in the university: where knowledge and non-knowledge have come to be defined by technocratic specialists; where dissent is manufactured by hierarchical experts; and, where all differences must be scrutinized by knowledge specialists. However, the structure of the past does not so easily disappear. For example, in modern secular Indian culture, the traditional structure remains with the State and elite academic institutions now playing the role of guru.

Even avoiding or allowing for civilizational and cultural differences, individuals learn differently. We know that some learn best from doing; others from theoretical lectures; and still others through visual media. Some prefer professorial lectures; others small groups, and some one-to-one interaction. Some are analytic, others are synthetic. Some are intuitive; others sense-based; others reason-based; and still others learn through authority. Some focus on scientia (thinking), others on praxis (transformative action), others on techne (doing) and still others on gnosis (or contemplative seeing). Women and men also know and learn differently. In contrast to the individualistic style of men, research seems to support that women prefer learning in groups, working in win-win situations to achieve desirable outcomes.

However, we are not arguing from an essentialist position either with respect to civilization, ways of knowing, or individual styles. Differences in how we teach and learn are structural, based on our individual biography.   Holistic pedagogy, even while it aspires for a unity of discourse, must first unravel these differences. Teaching multi-culturalism then is far more than ensuring that one’s educational faculty is from diverse backgrounds. Civilization, language, cultural-national knowing styles, ways of knowing, and gender all confront univocal pedagogy. Pedagogical differences call for a deep pluralism in how we know and learn, for a critical political ecology of interpretation. Are we ready for such efforts? Most of us are not. It is far easier to teach by rote or to assume that one’s audience is of one mind than to teach and learn in the context of deep variation. Teaching across civilization and ways of knowing involves constant interaction with self (problematizing one’s teaching style) and with students (discerning what is happening within their worldview, in how they create meaning) as well as the categories of “self” and “student”. Dynamic cultural interaction, far more than liberalism can ever hope to aspire towards, is required.

SHARED BASICS

But to only teach differences does not suffice either. The issue is that given the Many that we are today, is there a One that can be learned about? Our futures depend on living such an ethical sensitivity. To begin with, we need to learn/teach the painful struggles we have overcome, the challenges that we have creatively resolved. But we should not only reflect on our own human history but as well include our complex interaction with Nature and the Divine. Our knowing of nature should not be as an Other to us, but as a living and breathing process that exists for itself. The divine should be conceived not as a entity that can be claimed and owned but as the ineffable, as the cosmic inspiration that leads to ever greater love, to ever greater understanding of others. The divine pulls history forward creating a progressive thrust that does not acede to narrow genderisms, nationalisms, culturisms, humanisms, or other exclusive forms of identity.

There are some basics that must be taught irrespective of difference. These are issues of how we treat one another (especially those vastly different from us), how we treat those weaker than ourselves, how we treat nature, and what our relationships with the Unknowable are. Each civilization has basic ethical guidelines. While new technologies such as gene therapy and artificial intelligence confront how we think and learn, they do not stop the more important process of asking what it means to be human. They do not stop the wondering and knowing process. Even as postmodernism relativism undoes the rationality of progress, we are called to new/ancient more inclusive levels of rationality. The true, the good, and the beautiful, or sat (truth as benevolence), chit (existence) and ananda (endless bliss) in multi-cultural education must not be lost sight of. The routes to them, the meanings we give to them, the frames we know and learn from, however, are broadened. It is this wisdom culture that multi-cultural education seeks to recover and, indeed, reinvent. Deep multi-cultural education envisions a future where the multiplicities that we are, unite in the common neo-humanity that we can be.

 

SELECTED REFERENCES

Michael Dudley and Kioni Agard, Man, Gods, and Nature. Honolulu, Ka Kane O Ka Malo Press, 1990.

Johan Galtung, “Structure, Culture and Intellectual Styles,” Social Science Information (Vol. 20, No. 6, 1981), 817-856.

Paul Wildman and Sohail Inayatullah and Paul Wildman, “Ways of Knowing and the Pedagogies of the Future,” Futures (September, 1996).

Ashis Nandy, “Shamans, Savages and the Wilderness: On the Audibility of Dissent and the Future of Civilization,” Alternatives (Vol. 15, No. 2, July 1989), 263-278.

Ziauddin Sardar, Information and the Muslim World. London, Mansell, 1988.

P.R. Sarkar, The Liberation of Intellect, Neo-Humanism. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1982.

Steve G. Steinberg, “Seek and ye shall find (maybe): On the quest for the ultimate index,” Wired (4.05, May 1996), 108-114.

Appendix

EDUCATIONAL PARADIGMS

Religious model:

Education should be about teaching the Truth of God as defined by “our” tradition. Discipline is a prerequisite to Godliness. The teacher must be obeyed and honored. There is a central text that must be memorized. Other texts and perspectives are rarely important except as anthropology.

National/Social Control Model:

Education is about keeping children and young adults off the streets. Education helps prepare individuals to be responsible members of the community and nation. Education helps create a productive labor force so that one’s nation can better compete in the world economy.

Bureaucratic Model:

This is based on the industrial factory model: “Ship them in and ship them out”. Efficiency, effectiveness and accountability are the code words. Strategic plans often focus on reorganization.

Market Model:

Universities must meet the changing needs of the customer and the customer is always right. Students should be trained for the capitalist market. Technical skills for the real world is the guiding mission.

Humanistic Model:

The university is about the enlightenment ideas of progress and reason. Teachers should bring out the best and noblest qualities (reason) in students. The ancient classics of all cultures, but especially Greek culture, should be taught. Schools can be improved by improving the teacher/student ratio.

Electronic Information model:

Pedagogy should be individually-tailored and delivered through the new technologies such as the Web. Interaction should be between student-student; student-author, and student-teacher. Teachers are primarily guides. Education is life-long based and placeless. Information can rid us of our narrow minds. Technology can and will liberate us.

Spiritual model:

Education is about remembering who we really are, our deeper most selves. Teachers should not only be facilitators but moral, inspiring examples as well. They must nurture students’ idealism and help them discover their true mission in life. Education is about learning about the inner self so as to transform society; inner and outer transformation. Technical, classical and spiritual knowledge are important in helping create the balanced person.

 

Dr. Sohail Inayatullah, The Communication Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Box 2434, Brisbane Q, 4001, Australia. Email: S.Inayatullah@qut.edu.au. He is on the editorial board of Futures, Periodica Islamica and Journal of Futures Studies and is co-editor of the WFSF Futures Bulletin. He is the author/editor of numerous books and over a 100 book chapters, journal articles, and magazine pieces. He recently completed a Reader in Futures Studies, a multicultural “book” available on the worldwideweb through Southern Cross University, Australia (url: http://www.scu.edu.au/ewt/Futures/). Forthcoming with Johan Galtung is Macrohistory and Macrohistorians: Towards a Grand Theory of Social Change (Praeger). The author would like to thank Anne Elliott of the Communication Centre for her editorial assistance and James Dator and Rick Slaughter for comments on an earlier version written for New Renaissance.