Futures Studies In Asia: Players And
Institutions
By Sohail
Inayatullah
Professor, Tamkang University, University of the Sunshine Coast, and Prout
College.
Written for the Swiss Development and Cooperation Agency. Presented at the
3rd Global Knowledge Conference, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, December 12, 2007.
This
report presents the players and institutions engaged in futures studies in Asia.
Futures Studies can be defined the study of alternative futures including the
worldviews and myths that underlie them.
A
futurist can be defined as: the futurist employs time, especially future time,
to transform the present. Through deeply democratic processes, the futurist
helps organizations and institutions move from the default future (which is
often the used or the disowned) to the preferred future.
This
report is focused on individuals and institutions who are explicitly engaged in
futures studies, and not those, who may from time to time write a report with
the word future mentioned in it, or who are strong lobbyists for one particular
future that is, foundational to futures studies and futurists is the concept
of alternative futures. As well, as in many nations there are councils related
to the future of technology or business but these are in no way futures studies
institutions or organizations
1. JAPAN
1. The most
important current futurist living in Japan is Professor David Lindsay Wright (
He teaches in the Media Architecture Department at Future University Hakodate
(FUN), in the city of Hakodate, Hokkaido, Japan. He teaches courses for year 1,
2, 3 and 4 students at this university. While the university is called Future
University, it does not explicitly engaged in futures activities ie there is
no foresight or scenario planning mechanism in the Office of the President. Its
main foresight work is Professor Wright's courses.
There are
certainly other Japanese futurists. Along with Professor Wright there is:
2. Kaoru
Yamaguchi, who works with the Japan Futures Council . Little recent information
is available on Professor Yamaguichi. However, in the 1990s he played an
important role with the World Futures Studies Federation (www.wfsf.org)
and developed the idea of the Muratopia (http://muratopia.org)
and in developing futures oriented workshops and conferences at Awaji. He also
inspired the Network University of the Green World. Yamaguichi is an economist
by training, focused on New Economy futures.
3. Far
more active is Professor Ryota Ono (. He teaches Futures Studies at Aichi
University. Ono is not in a department of Futures Studies, but he does teach a
specific course titled Futures Studies. He is on the editorial board of the
Journal of Futures Studies (www.jfs.tku.edu.tw),
published by Tamkang University.
Writes
Ono: " Among courses I have taught in universities such as communications
technology, telecommunications policy, management information systems, I love to
teach futures studies (FS) most. As almost all students in the Department of
Business Administration have neither heard of FS nor expected to see such a
course title, the enrollment to my FS course is around 20 every year.
Interestedly, though, they get immediately fascinated by what FS offers to them
and become pleased with their own decision to take my FS course.
I teach
them basics of FS such as history, purposes, assumptions and methods using
Bells Foundations of Futures Studies, Volume I, and then introduce them to
scenario writing. I also try to help them develop an ability of critically
analyzing political, economic, technological and social issues using
Inayatullah's CLA. By taking my FS course, they gradually pay more attention to
future generations and world and begin to reflect on their own thinking and
actions in the present. "
2. Korea
In Korea, there are two futurists of note. And a third who
lives in Japan.
1. First is, Youngsook Park (,
who is Chair, of the World Future Society Korea Club and Chair of the Korea note
of the Millennium Project. She is a futurist and also an organizer-networker par
excellence. She has attempted to bring futures thinking and futures studies
throughout the Korean government. The website she manages is:
http://www.korea2050.net/ It is largely in Korean.
About their activities, she writes: "We started Korea2050
(now it is called UN Future Forum) in Jan 2004 with then Minister Lee Young-tak
who is currently DPM level Chairman of the Korean Stock Exchange as chairman. As
he hold the government position he is now honorary chair, and I am the president
of UN Future Forum. It was officially registered to the Ministry of Finance in
2005.
We currently have some 5000 members who receive our
regular web magazine which are issued 2-3 times a week, with a lot of future
stories in Korean. We publish State of the Future (by Millennium Project)
annually, starting from 2004 version. This year's version for 2006 will come out
in May or so. We will soon to publish the Futurist in Korean.
For the American World Future Society Conference, 40 or
so members attend the annual WFS Conference.
We have conducted several Korean government futures
projects, future of education2030, and some Min of Construction work as well."
Recently in March Ms Park influenced Incheon Airport to
have a two day conference on the futures of airports.
2. The second Korean futurist of note is Dr. Yongseok So
(futures@kt.co.kr). He recently finished his phd from the University of Hawaii
under the supervision of Professor James Dator, one of the founders of modern
day futures studies.
He is the lead researcher at KT Futures society research
centre. Writes Seo: "The KTFSRC (Korea Telecom Future Society Research Center)
was established in 2006 in order to study and forecast future transformation in
various fields. The aim of the center not only assists KT to expand business
opportunities, but also encourage Korean people in governments and communities
to think beyond current values and practices. "
3. Dr. Tae-Chang Kim is the director of the Integrated
Study of Futures Generations Centre in Kyota. He is the editor of numerous books
on futures generations thinking, including Co-Creating a Public Philosophy for
Future Generations. Futures generations thinking is similar to futures studies,
however, it takes a more asian epistemological approach, focusing on 1.
families. 2. ancestors and future-cestors. And 3. nature. It challenges the
narrow individualistic western approach to futures thinking and is explicitly
Buddhist in its approach.
Kim writes about this book:
"When making decisions, governments can and should strive consciously to balance
the demands of the present with the needs of future generations. Various
advocates for greater governmental foresight have created new processes or
institutions within existing systems of democratic government. These include
long-range planning departments, futures commissions, requirements for
future-impact statements on proposed legislation, environmental protection
agencies, and offices of technology assessment. But, as the contributors to this
volume demonstrate, much more remains to be done.
Some of the provocative
questions posed by this book include: What is a public philosophy oriented to
the needs of future generations necessary, and why is it necessary? What are the
major examples of actual experiments in future-oriented governance? What were
their successes and failures, and the reasons for each? And finally, what are
the obstacles to future-oriented governance, and how might they be overcome? The
authors of the essays in this volume suggest answers based on their extensive
experience in working with governments, trying to help them incorporate
techniques of foresight into their institutions and practices."
3. Philippines
The
Philippines was fortunate to host the Secretariat of the World Futures Studies
Federation from 1998-2002, including hosting the World Futures Studies
Conference in 1999. The conference was titled The Futures of Diversity:
Celebrating Life and Complexities in the Next 100 years. The publication:
Globalization, Diversity and Questions in Between. Selections from the 1999
World Futures Studies Federation XVIth World Conference edited by George L.
Aguilar is available from
www.wfsf.org.
Having had the world futures studies
federation in the Philippines led to an enhancement of the foresight capacity,
and there are many futurists in the Philippines or at least students of futures
studies. Two however fit our categories above.
1. , who was the former Secretary General of
the WFSF and 2. His associate George Aguiler. Both are co-directors of the
Center for GLO-Cal Futures. It is now a virtual centre. Writes Villanueva, " The
purpose of the Center is to bring into awareness the value, importance and vital
significance of futures thinking and the foresight principles into the
consciousness of people especially the young. The Center also advocates the
need for compelling visions of alternative futures. Our activism is focused on
organizing successor generation of leaders with the foresight and principles of
sustainability, good governance and just peace. The core volunteers of the WFSF
secretariat comprises the membership. Activities have focused mainly on
awareness raising on futures, incorporating long term thinking in strategic
peace research such as DDR, organizing successor generation of leaders." The
main methods that are used are: visioning, scenario building and backcasting.
CLA when needed. Transcend and Transform."
Villanueva is now full time with Pax
Christi Pilipinas and part time at the graduate school of the University of St.
La Salle.
4 Malaysia
Malaysia has a rich history of futures
studies largely from its association with the World Futures Studies Federation.
In June 1996 through Institute of Policy Development a course on futures studies
was held in Penang. Futurists Sohail Inayatullah, Tony Stevenson and Zia Sardar
led the course. Locally, Azizan Baharuddin, along with teaching, managed the
day today affairs. Later, she became a member of the Executive Board of the
World Futures Studies Federation. She is now professor and Director of the
Centre of Civilizational Dialogue, University of Malaya.
Currently, the University Sains Malaysia
in Penang is leading Malaysia in conducting futures studies. Through the
leadership of Dato Zulfi the Vice-Chancellor and Professor Ramli Mohammed,
they have produced one of the most important books in the area of the futures of
the University. Titled, "Constructing Future Higher Education Scenarios:
Insights from Universiti Sains Malaysia," this book uses Inayatullah's six
pillars approach to futures studies. It does so to map out the futures of
University Sains Malaysia. The book is also important in that it details the
stakeholder process in terms of discussions with staff, students, industry and
others in developing a new future for USM.
5 Thailand
Apec Centre for Technology Foresight (http://www.apecforesight.org/)
has slowly over the years become more focused on futures studies. Initially,
technology road mapping was its focus. It has now moved to a broader approach.
The is largely because of a series of workshops on futures methods over the past
few years. While there are no individuals who would call themselves futurists,
there are a few who wear two hats. Dr. Chatri Sripaipan and Dr. Nares
Damrongchai
nares@nstda.or.th. They wear two hats because APECTF is housed in the
National Science and Technology Development Agency. However,
Firstly, we are not as dogmatic
about the future as most pop futurists. We are as unlikely to trumpet the latest
fads as we are to create hype to market our findings. On the contrary, by
undertaking deeper systemic inquiry we opt for the longer view. Finding
alternative meanings in systemic intelligence we seek to reveal the structural
dynamics generating the uncertainty, ambiguity and paradox within which we live.
Secondly, the diverse makeup of our
collegial network ensures unbounded, multicultural thinking. Our time horizon,
too, extends each moment of the present into deep time - across the entire
expanse of our history, into the 21st century and beyond. Our intelligence
canvas is equally expansive, combining the physical world of things and events
with the metaphysical domain of cultures and values. Each is considered at
various levels - from the individual to the societal.
Thirdly, we are not distracted by other
activities or demands on our time. Our work is entirely focused on the research,
synthesis and actioning of futures-based strategic intelligence. " Currently
Hames is developing an Asian institute of futures thinking in Bangkok, Thailand.
Finally, there is Michelle Bauwens, who
lives in Chiang-Mai. He takes a peer to peer approach to futures studies.
Indeed, he is the director of the P2pfoundation
www.p2foundation.net. He argues that the future is being transformed via the
peer to peer revolution. This is occurring in the areas of knowledge production;
manufacturing; gaming; education, finance, among other areas. Bauwens as well as
written television scripts in the areas of transhuman futures.
Jui-Guey Chen (Wilhelm@mail.tku.edu.tw),
Yu-Ying Deng (tengyy@mail.tku.edu.tw
) and Shunji Ji (jishunji@mail.tku.edu.tw).
There are other important faculty members as well, however, they are unlikely to
refer to themselves as futurists.
The university also publishes a quarterly
global journal, the Journal of Futures (www.jfs.tku.edu.tw)
that is available in print and on-line. Editors include Professor Sohail
Inayatullah, Clement Chang and Chien-fu Chen.
The challenge at Tamkang university is to take
the pedagogy of futures studies to a broader audience in government, ngos and
business.
2 Along with
Tamkang University, there is Fo-Guang University. It has a graduate program in
Futures Studies. It is unique in that along with external approaches to the
future, it takes an inner Buddhist approach. Language of instruction is
mandarin. According to the website (http://www.fgu.edu.tw/newpage/fgupageen/showfguen/index.php)."Graduate
Institute of Futures Studies is the first academic institute in Taiwan or Asia
that incorporates theories and practice of futures studies to explore the trend
of national politics, economy, culture, society, and environment.
Future Studies is recognized a mainstream of knowledge system
in the 21st century; thus, cross-field integration, instead of traditional field
or course-based instruction is implemented in the curriculum. Such design is
intended to establish the theory system of futurology, and conduct aggregate
research on human lives. We aim to cultivate our students observation and
forecast capabilities in research."
7 China
In the 1970s and 1980, Lin Zheng was secretary-general of the
Chinese society of futures studies. He organized a stunning conference of the
world futures studies federation in Beijing, 1987. However, since the Tiananmen
square protest, futures studies had disappeared in China.
8. India.
There are a plethora of futurists in India.
1 Most notable is Ashis Nandy , author of dozens of books on
the future. He was former director of the Centre of the Study of Developing
Societies. Nandy can be reached at
Managing Development for Future : A Study in Transition and Change
Management. Delhi, Gyan, 2001, 2 vols., 1334
4. Dada Shambushivananda is a unique futurist who has been
writing in the area for five to six years. His main focus is neohumanist
futures. He has research centres in Thailand and Taiwan. Neohumanism seeks to
expand the future through expanding how individuals explore self and society. It
seeks to explore inner and outer futures from yoga and meditation to global
governance and cooperative economics. Dadaji
shambhushivananda@gmail.com
5. SP Udayakumar Udayakumar is an educationalist and
futurist. He has organized workshops on the futures of south Asia, and his
doctoral dissertation explored the implications of the writing of textbooks
(nationalism) on alternative futures. He directs the South Asian
Community Center for Education and Research (SACCER) at
Nagercoil in
Tamil Nadu to carry out community work, and educational and research
ventures. He is on the editorial board of the Journal of Futures Studies.
drspudayakumar@yahoo.com
9 Pakistan
While there are many who study the future in Pakistan, Raja
Ikram Azam would be considered a true futurist. He is director of the Pakistan
Futuristics Institute. He holds classes, does consultancies, advises businesses
and the government in all matters related to the future. Azam has written dozens
of books on the future. He can be reached at: 37, School Road, F. 7/1,
Islamabad, Pakistan. Tel 92-51-920-4359.
10
Sri Lanka
The most notable futurist from Sri Lanka could be Arthur C
Clarke, however, as important, if not more so, is Susantha Goonatilake .
Goonatilake has written extensively on a new Asia developing that uses its own
epistemological framework to innovate in science and technology. He is author of
dozens of books on the futures of science including Global Science and
Merged Evolution: Long-Term Implications Of Biotechnology And Information
Technology.
susanthag@hotmail.com.
11. Singapore.
Singapore is unique in that while there is not one particular
individual who may call him or herself a futurist, the nation has taken a
whole-of-country approach to futures studies. Their product if the Risk
Assessment and Horizon Scanning or RAHS Singapore. This is developed by Patrick
Nathan and colleagues in the National Security Coordination Centre, Office of
the Prime Minister. Their approach has three parts. 1. scanning the horizon for
threats. 2. focus on problems that can spin out of control and 3. using diverse
and multiple approaches to dealing with uncertainty and complexity. Currently,
Nathan and RAHS are exploring developing an MA program in Futures Studies in
Singapore. Patrick_Nathan@nscs.gov.sg
SUMMARY
While there are dozens of other individuals who engage in
futures studies, generally they are focused on what Richard Slaughter has
called, pop futures, or populist futures. These are comments on the future for
the daily newspaper. Academics as well tend of include "the future" as a
subheading at the end of their report or paper. As well, there are dozens of
institutes in Asia, who from time to time hold a symposium where the word future
is mentioned or where a special report on the future of X is used. Of course,
most recently the future has become associated with climate change,
environmental catastrophe on the one hand, and the future as digital revolution
on the other- Green-topia countering digital-topia. While both are important
images of the future, futures studies, explores these images and many more.
Moreover, after exploration comes the creation of the future its invention and
transformation.
Futures Studies is likely to grow dramatically in Asia
over the coming decades. Foresight in government (as they move away from feudal
orientations), corporations (as they move away from family style leadership) and
non-governmental organizations will most likely use the theories and methods of
futures studies. Moreover, they are likely to develop approaches that are
uniquely Asian (is in futures generations thinking by Kim, neohumanism by
Shambushivananda and Asian epistemologies by Goonatilake).
We look forward to a renaissance of futures studies in
Asia.
Websites:
Fo Guang University -
http://www.fgu.edu.tw/newpage/fgupageen/showfguen/index.php
Journal of
Futures Studies
www.jfs.tku.edu.tw
Graduate
Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University -
http://future.tku.edu.tw/en/conference-overview.htm
Kaoru Yamaguchi
www.muratopia
Future University -
http://www.fun.ac.jp/en/
World futures studies federation
www.wfsf.org
Apec Technology Foresight Centre
www.apectf.org
University Sains Malaysia
www.usm.my
Korea future club -
www.korea2050.net
neohumanist futures -
www.gurukul.edu
The Hames Group
www.hamesgroup.com
Peer to Peer Foundation -
http://p2pfoundation.net/Main_Page
