Future Survey 24:2/100. February 2002

Understanding Sarkar: The Indian Episteme, Macrohistory and Transformative Knowledge. Sohail Inayatullah (Mooloolaba, Australia; Tamkang U; Queensland U of Technology; U of Action Learning; www.metafuture.org). Leiden, The Netherlands: Brill, Jan 2002/366p/$49.00. (Order from <cs@brill.nl> or <cs@brillUSA.com.>)

Inayatullah, author and editor of a dozen books on futures topics, provides an extensive analysis of P. R. Sarkar (1921-1990), a controversial Indian philosopher, guru, and activist. "On one level we can boldly state that Sarkar's theory is more creative, inclusive, and holistic than other attempts by macro-thinkers throughout history. Within the Indian context, along with Gandhi, he stands out as the premiere thinker of this last century, if not the past few hundred years." The notion of opposites is central to his metaphysics, and his rationality is grounded in a universal humanism, or "neo-humanism" that has as its goal a consciousness personally considered as blissful, beyond pleasure and pain. To Sarkar, modernity is the irrational, and the rational leads to the spiritual--the maximization of individual and collective "happiness." To create a new culture, a new map of knowledge is required that frames self, society, Other, nature, and the transcendental. In 1955, Sarkar began his spiritual organization Ananda Marga (or The Path of Bliss), and a few years later he started Renaissance Universal and the more directly political PROUTist Universal. Until his death in 1990, Sarkar remained active in Calcutta composing over 1000 songs of the new dawn, giving talks on spiritual life, lecturing in over 120 languages on spiritual and social theory, providing leadership and managing his organizations, and helping to create self-reliant ecological communities. Chapters discuss Sarkar's unique contributions, PROUT strategy (a central element is movements that organize the oppressed), Sarkar in the context of the Indian episteme (the goal of his theory is to create a condition where the physical, social, and cosmic worlds are in harmony), Sarkar's theory of history (the classic cyclical historical viewpoint, with the possibility of spiritual and economic transformation allowing an exit from history), Sarkar in the context of other macro-historians, and his social laws critiqued from various positions.

[NOTE: An impressive tour de force, clearly enabling an appreciation of a significant but completely non-Western worldview in several dimensions. Also see the chapter on Sarkar in Macrohistory and Macrohistorians: Perspectives on Individual, Social, and Civilizational Change edited by Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah (Praeger, 1997; FS 19:11/501). Sarkar's texts are available at <www.prout.org>.

Another recent Inayatullah project is the editing of Vol 4 of The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies on a CD from the Futures Study Centre in Australia [available from the WFS Bookstore for $60.00] with all four volumes. The first three volumes, published in 1996 and totalling 1,187 pages, survey foundations, organizations, practices, and outlooks; see FS 18:10/452-454). Vol 4, What Futurists Think, provides 108 brief autobiographical entries by a wide range of futurists, such as S. Amin, C. Bezold, E. Boulding, Y. Dror, M. Garrett, T. Gordon, R. Eisler, L. Jennings, E. Masini, P. Mettler, etc., each explaining what has been influential, how they work, and their views on forces shaping the world.] (P. R. Sarkar explained

.Humanity 3000: Seminar No. 2 Proceedings. Foundation For the Future. Bellevue WA: FFF (www.futurefoundation.org), Aug 2000/373p/$10.00 ($20.00 outside US).

The Foundation, established by inventor/businessman Walter P. Kistler in 1996, seeks to promote scholarly research to better understand the factors that have an impact on the quality of human life and the long-term survivability of humanity. Following the first seminar in April 1999 [see Seminar No. 1 Proceedings, Fall 1999; FS 22:1/005], this second seminar held in September 1999 continues to ponder issues on the thousand-year future of humanity. Three fishbowl discussion groups focused on the roles and definition of science and the future role of technology, the concept of conscious evolution (and the notion of thrival as better than mere survival), and how to educate broadly enough and fast enough. In  imaging life in the year 3000, participants shared such commonalities as massive communications capabilities, space colonization, breakdown of the nation-state, artificial intelligence, widespread boredom, and extended human life span. Differences centered on optimism vs. pessimism, virtual reality vs. reality, democracy vs. dictatorships, humans vs. synthetic or enhanced people, linguistic diversity vs. one language, and positive technology vs. failed technology. Discussion topics of greatest interest to participants centered on evolution, governance/ethics, humans, science/technology, and sustainability.

The bulk of the Proceedings, as before, are devoted to a transcript of the discussions. An initial 58-page section reproduces prepared statements by the 27 participants on the factors most critical to long-term survival, the greatest potential in your field, and the desired vision of the 1000-year future. Some selected comments: Olugbenga Adesida desires development of a global ethics based on a compact for equity and justice, and effective global governance. Ed Ayres focuses on solving the puzzle of mass-denial--the pervasive unwillingness to deal with the global threats we face (which will probably require "a  fundamental redesign of the information environment"). Wendell Bell seeks to increase knowledge of what is possible, probable, and preferable through futures studies. Clement Bezold emphasizes just, efficient, and sustainable use of resources, and development of shared global visions toward a world that works for all humans and supports all life. Eric J. Chaisson considers evolution and energy [see 23:5/250] and speculates that the next great evolutionary leap forward for our civilization might well be "ethical evolution" by development of a planetary culture. Clement C. P. Chang expresses concern about distributive injustice and conflict between rich and poor. David E. Comings foresees virtual eradication of all diseases and virtual elimination of aging, with longevity over 200 years and limitless energy from nuclear fusion and other technologies. Christian de Duve, concerned with the ever-accelerating growth of knowledge and power, argues that "humanity is fated to exercise increasing control over its own future and that of life on Earth." Jay W. Forrester states that "population growth will determine the future well-being of humanity" and that "the future will be one of increasing turmoil and conflict as different societies compete for limited environmental opportunities." Susantha Goonatilake foresees fresh Asian (non-Eurocentric) initiatives in a few decades on the implications of technology and what defines the human condition. Sohail Inayatullah points to a multicultural/civilizational ethic, global governance, a Gaian approach to nature, and local decentralized economies. Anthony Judge proposes development of a language and mode of dialogue appropriate to working collectively with the ecology of fundamental differences ("there is a widespread, misguided belief in the adequacy of existing language"). Peter H. Mettler thinks it most important that humanity develops a general code of conduct to avoid the suicide of the species. Francisco Sagasti keys in on the search for a new program to orient the direction of human evolution over the next several centuries; the Baconian program has run its course. Elisabet Sahtouris insists that long-term survival is questionable, and "everything depends on what we do in the next few years, the next decade, and in the rest of the first century of the millennium"; this involves understanding cosmic creativity and living systems, and making the shift to caring and sharing. Ziauddin Sardar hopes for evolution of a multicivilizational world and new pragmatic modes of dissent. Gregory Stock sees a robust future for humanity and little that can derail the rapid advance under way. Brian Swimme views the greatest potential before us as reinventing the human being. Crispin Tickell hopes for a

greatly reduced population of responsible citizens of diverse quality of life and culture, in harmony with their natural surroundings. Also includes abstracts of 31 background papers, most not by participants in this Seminar.

(2nd Humanity 3000 seminar)

Coherence and Chaos in Our Uncommon Futures: Visions, Means, and Actions. Edited by Mika Mannermaa (Turku School of Economics), Sohail Inayatullah (Queensland Institute of Technology) and Rick Slaughter (U of Melborne). Turku, Finland: Finland Futures Research Center (Turku School of Economics, PO Box 110, FIN-20251), June 1994/337p.

Selections from the XIII World Conference of the World Futures Studies Federation, held in Turku in August 1993. Includes Peter M. Allen on chaos and evolution, Jim Dator on the future of culture (betting on the rise of Confucian cultures and the precipitous decline of Western civilization), Sohail Inayatullah on chaos and general evolutionary theory, Tae-Chang Kim on a HAN philosophical perspective (HAN being the essence of Korean mentality, integrating monism and dualism), Pentti Malaska on the late-modern dilemma of progress, Mika Mannermaa on alternative futures perspectives on coherence and chaos, Ziauddin Sardar on non-Western cosmological views of coherence and chaos and the need for holism, Sam Cole and Victoria Razak on the futures of cultural complexity in "time-bomb" (cultural polarization) and "time-share" (cultural pluralism) scenarios, Auli Keskinen on time bombs of our time (wicked problems that need defusing, such as population growth), Laurence A.G. Moss on rapidly growing amenity migration as a concept beyond tourism, Brian Murphy on rehumanizing economics through sustainable business, Alexander Tomov on the beginning of a new epoch in the development of mankind (based on disintegration of the bipolar world pattern and transition to new global structures), Ron Crocombe on potentials of Pacific Island micro-cultures, Susantha Goonatilake on globalization and localization, Eleonora Barbieri Masini on technology and culture, Paul Smoker on prospects for peace in the 21st century, Helmut Gross on the lost myth of progress, Partow Izadi on the evolution of values, Anthony J.N. Judge on human values as attractors, Riitta Wahlström on global crisis and education for environmental responsibility, Janne Hukkinen on cognitive mapping of expert scenarios on waste management, Vuokko Jarva on female futures studies, Lester W. Milbrath on the societal impacts of chaos in the climate system, and Tony Stevenson and Lyn Simpson on creating futures through the misunderstandings between uncommon cultures. [NOTE: An inadvertent demonstration of intellectual chaos, with no attempt at fashioning any overall coherence.]

(WFSF 1993 Conference Proceedings)

Communication Futures (Special Issue). Edited by Sohail Inayatullah (Communications Centre, Queensland U of Technology) and Tony Stevenson (Director, Communications Centre; President, World Futures Studies Federation). Futures, 30:2/3, March-April 1998, 107-265. A colloquium of brief thoughts on anticipating issues for the study of human communication is followed by 12 papers and essays, an annotated bibliography of 27 items, and a single book review. Topics include: 1) Greg Hearn and Tony Stevenson on tensions in communications theory and the potentials of action research; 2) Michael R. Ogden on Pacific island countries avoiding the apparent devil's choice between jumping on the high-tech bandwagon (and being subsumed by Western cyberculture) and withdrawing from the techno-world (thus falling even further behind) by somehow ensuring that telecoms empowers them in preserving their culture; 3) Levi Obijiofor on the role of infotech in Africa's future development (arguing for accessible and culturally significant low-cost technology); 4) Anthony J.N. Judge on songlines of the noosphere and the global configuration of hypertext; 5) Tony Stevenson on the concept of netweaving (in preference to networking) and four scenarios for global communications and information [see FSA96/13874]; 6) Majid Tehranian and Michael R. Ogden on the changing communications environment and various global futures scenarios; 7) Johan Galtung on the future of information and communication in modernity (arguing that "disinformation society" and the "disinformation toll road" are taking shape around us, and that we can expect "an increasing disinformation overload"; 8 ) Sohail Inayatullah on deconstructing the information era (arguing that information theory ignores civilization and spiritual perspectives, that information society is merely capitalism disguised, that we are moving toward temporal and cultural impoverishment, and that authentic global conversations are needed). (essays on communications futures)

Law and Technology (Special Issue). Edited by Jim Dator and Debora Halbert (both Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, U of Hawaii). Tech. Forecasting and Social Change, 52:2-3, June-July 1996, 101-268.

The 11 essays are arranged in four sections: 1) Electronic Technology and the Future of Law: M. Ethan Katsh on the impact of cyberspace on lawyers and the practice of law [see his book, FS 18:7, #96-334], Michael R. Ogden on the problems and potentials of cyberdemocracy, Alan Gaitenby on legal questions posed by the new social spaces in cyberspace (MUDs and MOOs), Debora Halbert on alternative futures for intellectual property law (business as usual, the hacker future of free information, and a shared future that eliminates the idea of "private property"), Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Fitzgerald on legal scenarios raised by genetic science (law as supporter of the genetic revolution, the law as conservative guardian of social welfare, the legal system replaced by rapidly changing "fast law," new legal solutions and a new ethical discourse based on a more holistic vision of the world); 2) The Future of Crime and Criminal Justice: the late Richter H. Moore Jr on the menace of 21st century organized crime that requires an international response [also in Futures Research Quarterly, Spring 1995; FS 17:11, #95-511], James D. White on the fear of international crime leading to expansion of the global police force; 3) Court Administration and the Future: James E. McMillan on new technologies to assist courts and judges (such as the possibility of Standardized General Markup Language), Donald C. Dahlin on technology impacts, William Earle Klay and James D. Sewell on a democratic communitarian approach to technology (one that improves policing, corrections, and the courts); 4) 21st Century Law and Technology (see below). [NOTE: A broad-ranging view of legal futures; should be read by every lawyer.] (technology and criminal justice)

Learning and Teaching About Future Generations (Special Issue). Edited by Richard A. Slaughter (Futures Studies Centre, Kew, Victoria, Australia) and Allen Tough (Prof, U of Toronto-OISE). Futures, 29:8, Oct 1997/695-768.

Future generations consist of real people who have not yet been born, who are unable to lobby or vote today. It is crucially important for us to understand their perspectives and their needs. How can we help students and adults to learn about future generations and their neglected perspective, in a variety of formal and informal settings? These nine papers were presented at a small October 1995 conference in Toronto, sponsored by the Future Generations Alliance Foundation in Kyoto, which has sparked futures generations conferences in more than 20 cities around the world [ALSO SEE earlier volumes from FGAF, FSA96/13382-13383]. Topics include Richard Slaughter on FGAF work in progress and a national foresight strategy for future generations, Sohail Inayatullah on future generations thinking (invoking commitment to the family and all sentient beings, an intergenerational approach, enhancing wisdom, a global focus, etc), Allen Tough on what future generations might say to us (they would ask us to care deeply and feel connected to them), Oliver W. Markley and Sandy Burchsted on adults and children experiencing the needs of future generations through "visionary futures exploration," Jerome C. Glenn on ethical and psychological issues in teaching futures studies, Budd Hall and Darlene Clover of the OISE Transformative Learning Centre on environmental adult and popular education to reconnect with nature. [NOTE: Alternatively, a better definition of "future generations" would include those who have been born, but are still too young to lobby and vote. Doing so connects with the many groups concerned about children's welfare, and invites learning about today's kids as a precursor to unborn generations, e.g. 20:1/025. Not doing so invites a parochial dead end. ALSO SEE: Future Generations and International Law, edited by Emmanual Agius et al., (London: Earthscan, Jan 1998/222p/18.95pb).]

(future generations learning)

The Futures of the UN in Emerging World Orders, Sohail Inayatullah (The Communication Centre, Queensland U of Technology), Journal of Futures Studies, 1:1, Nov 1996, 27-50. (Available from Division of Futures Studies, Educ. Development Center, Tamkang U, Tamsui, Taipai, Taiwan; e-mail: lin9015@mail.tku.edu.tw)

A survey of literature on the future of the UN as seen by idealists (P.R. Sarkar, Robert Muller), structural-functionalists (Zenia Satti), realists (Coral Bell, Frank Ching), and historical-structuralists (Immanuel Wallerstein, Crane Brinton). Main reform options include: 1) transforming the Security Council to make it more representative; 2) changing the structure of power within the UN; 3) democratizing the UN by diluting the veto and/or allowing for some expanded role for NGOs; 4) making the UN more accountable and responsive; 5) rethinking the peacekeeping function; 6) strengthening the UN with more funding; 7) transforming the UN into a world government that denies national sovereignty when necessary. [NOTE: Initiation of this new futures journal in Taiwan is most welcome. Address inquiries to Jyh-Horng Lin, Director of the Division of Futures Studies. ALSO SEE: World Futures and the United Nations: An Annotated Guide to 250 Recent Publications (WFS, 1995; FS Annual 1996 #13350), with 23 abstracts from FS on UN reform, and others illustrating ten different ways to think of world futures.] (UN reform options)

The Self in Global Society, Walter Truett Anderson (Meridian International Institute, San Francisco), Futures, 31:8, Oct 1999, 804-812.

Author of The Future of the Self: Inventing the Postmodern Person (Tarcher/Putnam, Dec 1997; FS 20:8/367) notes that "we live in a furiously fragmented age" where "proliferating information and increasing specialization make it difficult--and not very profitable--to be a generalist." We are also moving into a post-identity society, in which people's ideas about selfhood and personal boundaries are much different than in the recent past. Two recurrent themes in the new postmodern psychology are that identity is a social product, and that most of us in postmodern societies find it difficult, if not impossible, to create and maintain a single, stable personal identity. The currently unfolding processes of psychological change and globalization might take two different paths: 1) One World, Many Universes: a world without boundaries, where most people have many identities and social roles, but no particular attachment to any of them; nationalism has lost its emotional force and people are freer to move with a relaxation of immigration laws; all of the major religions become true "world religions" no longer identified with a specific culture or geographic region and many people identify with more than one religion; 2) Back to Basics: an anti-globalist movement spreads and eventually becomes a more powerful force than Marxism; a global ideology of "devolution" is warmly greeted by radical Green parties, but the ideology is seized upon with even greater enthusiasm by religious fundamentalists, ethnic nationalists, political conservatives, fascists, and neo-fascists (devolution is highly contagious because it offers clear and stable identities with a strong sense of "us" and "them"). It "seems highly likely that the near-term future will bring us a tumultuous combination" of these two scenarios.

Four other articles follow (pp813/834) in this Symposium on  The Postmodern Person and Futures of the Self. Sohail Inayatullah (Queensland U of Technology) posits three scenarios of the future: the future as "schizophrenia" (an onslaught of technology shrinks space and time, selves implode, and nothing and everything is real when nature has ended; the "postmodern liberal" scenario of floating selves and fundamentalist selves; a "struggle with bliss" where selves are complex and layered. Rafael Echeverria (Caracas, Venezuela) argues that we must generate a new "common sense" for the new global world, where we acknowledge that we are all different observers. Sarah Ruth van Gelder (Executive Editor, Yes! A Journal of Positive Futures) looks at the emergence of the Cultural Creatives who are building stronger communities and working to preserve ecosystems. Sean Cubitt (Liverpool John Moores U) comments on the shift from mediated to distributed self. (futures of the self)

The Morning After (Special Issue). Edited by Ziauddin Sardar (editor, Futures). Futures: The Journal of Policy, Planning and Futures Studies, 32:1, Feb 2000, 1-102.

We have entered the new (western) Millennium, and the interconnected, hypercomplex future is beckoning us. Several regular contributors to Futures were asked about their personal visions for the next century--what they would like to see beyond the hangover of "the morning after."

Sohail Inayatullah (Queensland U of Technology) sees the West as ubiquitous, but wonders whether hegemony will continue. Four alternatives for the West are a dramatically aging population (with immigrants required for survival), genocide against the Other (the West becomes authentically multicultural), the high-tech Artificial Society (the most likely scenario, where diversity and the Other are pushed back), or a preferred 500-nation scenario in the context of a strong world government focused on human rights. Bruce E. Tonn (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) proposes a "noble" and necessary research agenda to ensure the future: imagine sustainable cultures, design future-oriented institutions, develop long-term decision-making methods, create facilitative research systems, develop whole system designs, and identify leverage points for change. Jerry Ravetz (Research Methods Consultancy, London) looks at the fault-lines of globalized civilization: the corruptions of "meretricity," runaway technology, hypercomplexity, technocracy (a society run by science-based experts), and the "vast and accelerating shift in consciousness now taking place" (reality has become problematic for the first time in centuries). Richard A. Slaughter (Prof of Foresight, Swinburne U, Australia) argues that the Western worldview of material growth is defective because it cannot be maintained in the long term, and that modern technologies do little or nothing for the problems of human existence; rather, we should understand how healthy cultures work, promote progressive social values, regard people as "layered beings," and create institutions of foresight to re-direct the overheated global megaculture toward more life-affirming paths. Tony Stevenson (President, World Futures Studies Federation) favors comparison of traditional mindsets with alternative ways of knowing, a coexistence of multiple and diverse forms of inquiry, thinking across epistemologies, and developing envisioning methods and techniques that can help imagine compelling visions of the future. (personal visions for the new century)

The Futures of Cultures. Coordinated by Eleonora Masini (Gregorian U, Rome). Paris: UNESCO Future-oriented Studies, Dec 1994/167p.

A synthesis of The Futures of Cultures project begun in 1990, with a selection of the most pertinent regional contributions, revised and updated by their authors. They include Denis Goulet on threats to diversity in Latin America, Rodolfo Stavenhagen on cultural struggles in Latin America, Ashis Nandy and Giri Deshingkar on the "onslaught of the dominant global culture," Susantha Goonatilake on the futures of Asian cultures between localization and globalization, Ziauddin Sardar on tension and conflict between tradition and modernity in Asia, Sohail Inayatullah on disintegration and reintegration of Asian cultures, Kazuo Mizuta on scenarios of Japanese cultures, Godwin Sogolo on scenarios of African cultures, and Augusto Perelli and Abdelkader Sid Ahmed on the western Mediterranean. Masini sums up this thinking in five scenarios: 1) the pessimistic scenario in which all cultures become bastardized, or reduced to a harmless "museum" role; 2) the continuity-in-change or dual-track scenario, where core elements of the culture remain strong; 3) the resistance scenario, where the many cultures fend off the dominant ones; 4) the Gaia scenario, where all cultures recognize that no culture is complete in itself; 5) the jungle/babel scenario, fostered by communication technologies and biotechnologies. Concludes that "in the future, it will be increasingly common for people to live simultaneously within several different cultures," with individuals constantly reassessing who they are and what they value. [ALSO SEE: The Futures of Culture, Vol. I (UNESCO, Dec 1991; FS Annual 1993 #11544) and Vol. II (March 1992).] (cultural futures)

Creating a New History for Future Generations. Edited by Tae-Chang Kim (President, IISFG) and Jim Dator (U of Hawaii). Future Generations Studies Series II. Kyoto: Institute for the Integrated Study of Future Generations, Dec 1994/349p/$15.00pb.

Selected papers from the November 1994 "First Global Future Generations Kyoto Forum," seeking to collect, coordinate, and encourage academic and activist projects on behalf of future generations. 1) Why and How We Must Take Action: Sohail Inayatullah on "future generations" as a more enduring metaphor than "the 21st century," Christopher Jones on threats to future generations, Godwin Sogolo on Africa's battle for mental decolonization, Alexandre Timoshenko on the need to incorporate the new intergenerational ethics into laws and institutions, Duane Elgin on awakening the media on behalf of future generations, Christopher Stone on the Maltese proposal at the 1992 Earth Summit to establish a guardian to speak for future generations, Ana Maria Sandi on gender equity to help future generations; 2) What Is Now Being Done: Nicholas Albery on imaginative ideas and projects as islands of hope, Rick Slaughter on institutions of foresight, Wendell Bell on the liberation of women as a benefit for future generations, Martha Rogers on the processes of learning about the world of today and tomorrow, Natalie Dian and Christel Nilsson on futures projects in Sweden; 3) Philosophical and Ethical Issues: Ernest Partidge on the need for a moral overhaul, Keekok Lee on notions of reciprocity and equilibrium, Norman Care on the motivation problem, Salvatore Privitera on the principle of impartiality, Tae-Chang Kim on a new theory of value for the global age. (future generations essays)

ALSO SEE Tips and Pitfalls of the Futures Studies Trade by Sohail Inayatullah (foresight, 2:4, Aug 2000, 369-374), who lists some critical points based on 20 years of futures research and consulting: 1) timing and learning patience (futures-oriented projects take time to materialize); 2)real participation (all stakeholders must be involved for effective scenario planning); 3) the importance of scenarios (they help in early warning, clarifying alternatives, and managing complexity); 4) developing a preferred vision (it provides the glue that creates community); 5) using metaphors or big picture stories (perhaps the best way to enter alternative future realities); 6) eclectic methods (mixing quantitative and qualitative, short range and long range, predictive and critical, depth and breadth); 7) being prepared for surprise (best done by searching for the "unofficial future" on the margins); 8) implementation (how to use futures to change the organization; it is best done when there is deep participation); 9) finally, "the future must be periodically questioned." (unlearning organizations)

Futures Studies in Higher Education. Edited by Jim Dator (Director, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, U of Hawaii). American Behavioral Scientist (Sage Pubs; 805/499-9774), 42:3, Nov-Dec 1998, 293-554; $11.00 single issue.

Essays by 26 futurists from 10 different countries on the theories and methods underlying the courses they teach in futures studies at the university level. Contributors include Jim Dator on the courses he has taught since the 1960s, Wendell Bell on the systematic study of possible/probable/preferable futures, Eleonora Masini advocating closer cooperation between social sciences and futures studies, Reed Riner on the future as a sociocultural problem, W. Warren Wagar on the role of history in future studies, Richard Slaughter on the foundations of critical futures studies, Sohail Inayatullah on multicultural futures, Peter Manicas on the asymmetry of explanation and prediction, Peter Bishop on social change and futures practice, Erzsébet Nováky on changes in the image of the future and in education, Éva Hideg on the transformation of futures research in Hungary, Mika Mannermaa on evolutionary perspectives in futures studies, Jan Huston on maximizing evolvability, Kaoru Yamaguchi on future-oriented complexity and dynamism, Markku Sotarauta on teaching a futures-seeking communicative policy process, Graham May on his course in foresight and futures studies at Leeds University, Christopher Jones on futures as autobiography, Jordi Serra on concepts and methods, Anita Rubin on images of the future as tools for coping, Paul Wildman on consulting and teaching futures studies through the World Wide Web, David Hicks on postmodern education requiring teaching in a spirit of hope and optimism, Oliver Markley on his graduate-level course about visionary futures, Ian Lowe on incorporating futures visions into teaching, Arthur Shostak on co-creating a futures studies course with working-class union members, and William Halal on the life cycle of evolution and "the inevitable transition to a technological world of unfathomable complexity and change." [NOTE: Unlike the volume of women visionaries that claims to be diverse while being pretty much of one voice (above), this volume suggests unity but presents a broad diversity of views reflecting the Babel of various academic languages.]

(teaching futures studies)

Macrohistory and Macrohistorians: Perspectives on Individual, Social, and Civilizational Change. Edited by Johan Galtung (Prof of Peace Studies, U of Hawaii) and Sohail Inayatullah (Sr Research Fellow, Communication Centre, Queensland U of Technology). Westport CT: Praeger, Oct 1997/274p/$65.00.

Macrohistory is ambitious, focused on the stages of history and the causes of change through time. The ideas and lives of 20 macrohistorians are analyzed: Ssu-Ma Ch'ien on cycles of virtue, St. Augustine on the river to judgment and then eternal bliss or damnation, Ibn Khaldun on the strengthening and weakening of asabiya (human unity), Giambattista Vico on fluctuations between reason/wisdom and barbarism/selfishness, Adam Smith on upward progress from nomadic hunters to capitalism, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel on dialectics and the world spirit, Auguste Comte on three stages of history (theological, metaphysical, and positivistic), Karl Marx on six techno-economic stages from primitive communism to full communism, Herbert Spencer on progress from barbarism to industrial society and then an altruistic world without government, Vilfredo Pareto on cycles of democracy and autocracy, Max Weber on history as interplay of rationalization and charisma, Rudolph Steiner on history as development toward emancipation and freedom (involving seven macro stages, seven cosmic periods, and seven epochs). Oswald Spengler on maturation and decay of cultures, Pierre Teilhard de Chardin on five ascending stages from cosmogenesis to the noosphere, Pitirim Sorokin on dynamics of cultural mentalities (ideational/ascetic, sensate/act8ive, idealistic), Arnold Toynbee on challenge and response from genesis through dissolution, Antonio Gramsci on materialist evolution from secular liberalism to socialism/communism, Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar on Progressive Utilization Theory (PROUT) and four stages of the social cycle, Riane Eisler on shifts between male dominator and gender partnership over time, and James Lovelock on the Gaia hypothesis and planetary evolution. An Appendix provides a very useful pictorial representation of the 20 theories. Inayatullah compares the macrohistorians, finding that the model of four or the double dialectic is central. Galtung distills key points and contradictions that each macrohistorian could teach and learn from others, and describes social macrohistory as metaphor for world macrohistory ("their warnings on what can go wrong should be taken seriously"). In the introduction, Galtung asks why there is so little macrohistory (or nomothetic generalizing), and answers that it is intellectually difficult and it is politically problematic (unlike the history taught in schools, it does not provide identity, dedication, and optimism). The macrohistorian also has a strong personality, coming on top of God or in place of God. "The macrohistorian is to the historian what Einstein or Hawking is for the run-of-the-mill physicist. It is certainly not a very modest enterprise." [NOTE: An awesome analysis, worthy of its immodest topic.] (20 macrohistories compared)

Utopian Thinking in Sociology: Creating the Good Society. Syllabi and Other Instructional Materials. Edited by Arthur B. Shostak (Prof of Sociology, Drexel U, Philadelphia). ASA Resource Material for Teaching. Washington: American Sociological Association (www.asanet.org; 202.383.9005ext389), July 2001/225p(8x11)/$20.00 ($16.00 for ASA members).

In the introduction to this collection of 44 contributions, Shostak complains that sociology textbooks lack any reference to utopias or dystopias, and speculates that this unjustified neglect is due to writers who think the subject is passe, who may fear association with the stigmatized "S-word" (socialism), who think utopias are an uncomplicated warm nest that excludes the real world, or who wish to dwell on social pathologies instead of sources of strength and fulfillment. Some selected contributions: #1) Michael Marien (editor, Future Survey) seeks to redefine utopia for the 21^st century, lists 35 ways to express idealistic/preferred futures, describes three broad trends in betterment thinking (from fiction to non-fiction, from whole society to sectoral proposals, from public sector to private sector action), and argues that sociology and society would benefit from systematically collecting and assessing the many research-backed ideas for social betterment; #2) Ivana Milojevic (U of Queensland) considers common themes in feminist utopias, Elise Boulding's image of the coming of The Gentle Society, and Riane Eisler's notions on transformation to a partnership society; #3) Ivana Milojevic and Sohail Inayatullah (Queensland U of Technology) point out that Western science fiction does not express the categories of the non-Western world and that it needs to be rescued by its own paradigmatic blinders and one-culture hegemony; #4) Tsvi Bisk (Kfar Saba, Israel) argues that "having a vision and being a realistic visionary are absolute necessities for functioning as a rational human being," and that futurism should serve as a foundational building block of a Neo-Utopianism; #5) Richard Slaughter (Swinburne U, Australia) criticizes the "long tradition" of technophilic and naively optimistic views in American futurism, the binary future of polar choice between optimism and "Terminator Two" visions, and the many oversights of SciFi dystopias, and calls for "an advanced futures discourse that can critique and re-shape existing agendashe task is about letting go of industrial models, values, priorities and structures across the board and opening to the wider processes of transformation"; #6) Kathleen L. Pereles (Rowan U, Glassboro NJ) considers the elements of a "utopian" workplace; #7) Wendell Bell (Yale U) assesses the problems of sociology (warring camps and proliferation into isolated subgroups) and urges sociologists to adopt a post-positivist theory of knowledge, to take prediction seriously (even though "futurists are not primarily interested in predicting"), to explore features of the good society and become an "action science," to help create a world moral community, to adopt a holistic/transdisciplinary view, to view the future as open, and to define society as "expectation and decision." Also includes 6 case studies of utopian projects (e.g. the Israeli Kibbutz, The Venus Project of Jacques Fresco), 11 reflections on teaching utopian material, 4 syllabi from current courses, 10 college student essays, and several bibliographies. [NOTE: Many good ideas outweigh ASA's poor production job.] (utopia for sociology teachers)

The University--Alternative Futures (Special Issue). Edited by Sohail Inayatullah (Noosa Institute for the Future) and Jenny Gidley (Director, Spirit of the Times: International Educational Initiatives, NSW, Aust). Futures, 30:7, Sept 1998, 589-747.

The modern university stands at the gateway of a range of futures. These essays consider four trends that promise to transform its nature: globalism (the university as a business), multiculturalism, virtualization (the promise of the net), and politicization, and new models of who teaches, who learns, and what is taught through what medium. Tom Abeles (Sagacity Inc, Minneapolis) views the university as a dynamic and evolving industry in a wired world, with the emergence of global Megauniversities, a rise in academic superstars, the majority of faculty as mentors, and academic research restructured into institutes. Jim Dator (U of Hawaii) asserts that "it is the urgent and largely unfulfilled task of all education to help us learn how to govern evolution"; established academic disciplines thus will not and cannot continue to play the rock bottom central core role they play at present. Paul Wildman (Brisbane, Aust) maintains that learning institutions will have to become "polyphonic multiversities" endorsing multiple and sometimes conflicting ways of knowing. Michael L. Skolnick (OISE/ U of Toronto) summarizes major themes in the literature of higher education in the 21^st century (extensive use of infotech, learning networks, transition from teaching to learning, economizing faculty time, pressure for institutional survival, consumer-centrism). Peter Manicas (U of Hawaii) envisions the radical restructuring of higher education, whereby most of it will be electronically delivered. Shahrzad Mojab (OISE/U of Toronto) examines education in the Middle East as a struggle for democratization and autonomy of the university from the power of the state. Tariq Rahman (Quaid-I-Azam U, Islamabad) views Pakistani universities as still existing in the middle of the 19^th century, and proposes reforms to transform the colonial legacy. Pai Obanya (UNESCO Regional Office for Education, Dakar) considers an approach to transform African universities to "development-oriented" institutions. Ivana Milojevic describes the ideal women-friendly university. Marcus Bussey sketches an ideal Tantra University based on Proutist economics, neo-humanism, ecology, microvita theory, etc. Patricia A. Nicholson (Associate Dean of Education, Stanford U) speculates on higher education in 2030 pursuing two new models of experience camps (where the arena for learning is community service) and advanced learning networks (for expansion and dissemination of information, skills, and knowledge). Pentti Malaska et al. describe the Finland Futures Academy, founded in 1997, as a new type of networked academic teaching medium and learning environment working in agreement and cooperation with Finnish universities. [NOTE: A broad-ranging and stimulating collection of trends, forecasts, and idealisms for universities worldwide, in rich and poor nations.]

(university futures worldwide)

Co-Creating a Public Philosophy for Future Generations. Edited by Tae-Chang Kim (President, Institute for Integrated Study of Future Generations, Kyoto) and James A. Dator (Director, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, U of Hawaii). Praeger Studies on the 21^st Century. Westport CT: Praeger, Aug 1999/284p/$65.00;$24.95pb.

Recent discussions about why we need to be aware of our obligations to future generations fall into four categories: the "fairness" obligation (not imposing risks on FGs that present generations would not accept), the "maintaining options" obligation (giving to our posterity future worlds that are as free of human-made constraints as possible), the "quality-of-life" obligation (insuring that FGs enjoy all the most important aspects of life), and Wendell Bell's argument for humility (humble ignorance ought to lead present generations to act prudently). "Future-oriented public philosophy and behavior does not imply an argument for or against specific policies towards the future, but rather is a way of ensuring that the needs of future generations are specifically taken into account whatever policies are made in all areas." After a Jan 1996 symposium in Hawaii, sponsored by the Future Generations Alliance Foundation in Kyoto, participants were asked how to articulate public philosophies and provoke behavior responsive to needs of FGs. The 20 essays include: 1) Walt Anderson on an imaginary dialogue in the Athens Hilton between himself, Jim Dator, and Socrates, on a futures-responsible public philosophy; 2) Fred W. Riggs on eventual transformation to an "ultra-democratic" polity with public agencies explicitly seeking to protect the interests of the unborn with the equivalent of environmental impact statements; 3) Takeshi Sasaki on the need for an organization independent of the nation state to represent weak claimants with strong claims such as FGs; 4) Martha J. Garrett on the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development enabling a rational basis for thinking about what we really owe to future generations; 5) Jordi Serra on developing a culture of consequences, where all of us recognize our responsibility towards the future; 6) Kjell Dahle on five possible strategies for transformation to responsibility for FGs; 7) Xinning Song on the Chinese government's 1996 decision to promote social, ethical, and cultural progress; 8) Barry O. Jones on making the Australian government more future-oriented; 9) Clem Bezold on experiences with "anticipatory democracy" in the US; 10) Christa Slaton and Theodore Becker on "enlightened democracy" as the best nurturer for FGs; 11) Sohail Inayatullah on inclusiveness of the Other, deep democracy, and finding ways for global conversations of cultures; 12) Wendy Schultz on organic leadership, servant leadership, and accountable leadership; 13) Bruce E. Tonn on a scenario of a Court of Generations interacting with a four-chamber Futures Congress of the North American Affinity States Collaborative; 14) Devin Nordberg on a vision of global democracy by 2020.

Causal Layered Analysis: Poststructuralism as Method, Sohail Inayatullah (Noosa Institute for the Future, Australia), Futures, 30:8, Oct 1998, 815-829.

Futures studies is divided into three overlapping dimensions: empirical, interpretive, and critical. Causal layered analysis (CLA), offered here as a new futures research method, is well situated in critical futures research, a tradition concerned with creating distance from current categories. In this poststructural critical approach, the task is not prediction or better definition of the future, but, at some level, to "undefine" the future. The poststructural futures toolbox includes deconstruction (breaking apart components of a text), genealogy (discerning which discourses have been hegemonic), distancing (through scenarios or  utopias), alternative pasts and futures, and reordering knowledge to bring a different dimension to the future. Deconstructing conventional metaphors through a civilizational perspective, and then articulating alternative metaphors, becomes a powerful way to critique the present and create the possibility of alternative futures. CLA assumes that the way in which one frames a problem changes the policy solution, and asks us to go beyond conventional framings constricted by worldviews, metaphors, and myths. It has been successfully used in a variety of workshops and futures courses over the last six years, and is best used prior to scenario-building. Benefits of CLA include expanding the range and richness of scenarios, inclusion of different ways of knowing, use by a wider range of individuals, and policy actions informed by alternative layers of analysis. Five case studies are provided of CLA applied to futures of the UN, the traffic problem in Bangkok, the Faculty of Education at Southern Cross University, senior management at SCU, and the Queensland Advocacy for people with disability. (undefining futures through CLA)

Futures Studies: Methods, Emerging Issues and Civilizational Values--A Multimedia Reader (CD-ROM). Sohail Inayatullah (s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au) and Paul Wildman. Brisbane, Australia: Prosperity Press (pwildman@powerup.com.au; fax 61.7.3266.7570),1998/US$55.00(Aust$80).

A CD-ROM with sections on methods used by futurists (visioning workshops, foundational futures concepts, scenario development), emerging issues that may dramatically change our lives (global governance, imagining a world without weapons, questions facing future generations, the partnership society, governing evolution, the rights of robots, the futures of Gaia), how different civilizations view the future, and a "futures galleria" of future-oriented artworks. Also includes feminist science fiction, over 100 Web addresses, a futures listserve enabling interactive conversations, and author profiles and interviews of such notables as Elise Boulding, Jim Dator, Riane Eisler, Johan Galtung, Hazel Henderson, Eleonora Masini, Ashia Nandy, Zia Sardar, Rick Slaughter, and Immanuel Wallerstein. [NOTE: Heavy emphasis on preferable futures and alternative futures. For a very different CD-ROM, with greater emphasis on descriptive or probable futures and applications to decision-making, see Futures Research Methodology by Jerome C. Glenn (Washington: Millennium Project/American Council for the UN University, 1998/$45.95, 40% discount for 10 or more copies), with sections on environmental scanning, the Delphi method and trend impact analysis (by Theodore J. Gordon), participatory methods, decision modeling and scenarios (by The Futures Group International), normative forecasting (by Joseph F. Coates), and integration of forecasting methods.]

(futures methods CD-ROMs)

Rescuing All Our Futures: The Future of Futures Studies. Edited by Ziauddin Sardar (editor, Futures). Praeger Studies on the 21^st Century. Westport CT: Praeger, March 1999/258p/$65.00;$24.95pb. (Published in UK by Adamantine Press.)

Sardar announces that "The future is being colonized and futures studies has become an instrument in that colonization." Technological trends dominate the business of forecasting, which is "spreading like a global fire," and forecasting is one of the major tools by which the future is colonized. No matter how sophisticated the technique, forecasting simply ends up by projecting the selected past and the often-privileged present on to a linear future. "Surviving the future involves confronting the deterministic, Western future and altering the political and intellectual landscape of the future." In liberating the future, the non-Western project must raise the future-consciousness of communities, articulate visions of desirable societies, and involve citizens in efforts to shape their own futures. Futures studies must function as an intellectual movement rather than a closed discipline, work to oppose the dominant politics and culture of our time, and resist and critique science and technology, globalization, and deterministic projections. "The next century belongs to Asia in general and India and China in particular," but intellectuals in non-Western societies must take the future seriously or become prisoners of someone else's future.

Eleonora Masini explains the evolution of futures thinking, the importance of desirable visions (based on a knowledge of possibles and probables), futures thinking as learning, and projects of action for the future. Other essays include Sohail Inayatullah on the genuine non-western future offered by Indian activist and philosopher P.R. Sarkar, Ivana Milojevic on feminizing futures studies to overcome "the masculinist colonization of the future," Susantha Goonatilake on de-westernizing futures studies (non-Westerners must capture the high group of imagination, both to free themselves and to realise themselves socially), Richard A. Slaughter on implementing critical futures studies (realizing the natural capacity of the human brain to envisage a range of futures), S. P. Udayakumar on futures facilitators and reinventing futures studies ("any attempt at rescuing all our futures must involve resisting nationalized and globalized futures by challenging the imposed spatial arrangements, time-order and herd instincts"), Graham H. May on approaching the future as a learning process that welcomes ideas invented elsewhere, Ted Fuller on various views of futures studies (as alternative thinking and critique, as worldviews, as guardians of future generations, as forecasting and planning), Jan Nederveen Pieterse on global futures, Anne Jenkins and Morgen Witzel on co-evolutionary futures, Steve Fuller on the future of science, Ashis Nandy on the Satanism of our times and the complicity of modern science in the contemporary conspiracies against the poor and the weak, and a bibliographic essay by Merryl Wyn Davies to counter the "technology fetish that so dominates the output of the Washington-based World Future Society" and The Encyclopedia of the Future [21:6/259], viewed as a "grotesquely mindless celebration of the Pax Americana". [NOTE: The essays range from modest pleas to truly consider alternative futures to angry denunciations of what is conveniently demonized as homogeneous and hegemonic Western thought. One hopes the quality of this dissent can be raised to a higher level in the future by specifying the evil colonizers, rather than condemning Western future studies as a whole. Overly generalized criticism throws a lot of babies out with the bathwater, provides a convenient excuse not to read many dissenting authors of note, and totally misses great globe-shaping debates (e.g., on sustainability and the new economy) that deserve non-Western participation.]

(non-Western futures)

The Futures of South Asia (Special Issue). Edited by Sohail Inayatullah (Honolulu HI). Futures, 24:9, Nov 1992, 851-955.

Sankaran Krishna considers India's oppressive pasts and proposes a confederation of autonomous provinces in the subcontinent as a way of "re-imaging the sub-continent." Sohail Inayatullah offers five scenarios of Pakistan's future: a disciplined capitalistic society as in South Korea, Islamic socialism committed to distributive justice, the pure ideal of the Islamic past as gateway to the future, the end of sovereignty (Pakistan's greatest dystopia is being devoured by India), and more of "the grand dis-illusionment" (continuing the general malaise, with the power structure appearing unchangeable). Qazi Ahmad discusses policies and strategies for sustainable development in Bangladesh (success requires strong political commitment and wide cultural acceptance). B.M. Sinha anticipates the coming Shudra or proletarian revo-lution that will lead to an era of progress in India and elsewhere [ALSO SEE Sinha's book, FS Annual 1993 #11629]. Barun Gurung explains sustainable develop-ment in the Eastern Himalayas based on Buddhist values. Johan Galtung ("an honorary South Asian") compares India and the EC as superpowers in the post-cold-war world ("both India and the EC will embark on the way to superpower status; in fact, they are already quite advanced"). Nandini Joshi sees the role of Asian women, particularly in villages, as key to revitalizing the economic system by integrating home with work. Shivani Chakravorty critiques Joshi's article as overly utopian, but also advocates gender equity. (South Asia futures)

The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies. Vol 1: Foundations. Edited by Richard A. Slaughter (Futures Study Centre, Melbourne). Hawthorn, Victoria, Australia: DDM Media Group, July 1996/372p/AUS$250;US$195 for 3 Vol set. (Available from WFS Book Service.)

Futures studies needs to refine and develop its knowledge base. The KBFS series, originating in an earlier Special Issue of Futures (April 1993; FS Annual 1994 #12723), seeks: 1) to help make FS clearer and more useful; 2) to contribute to an intercultural dialogue on the resolution of systemic problems and the framing of viable futures; 3) to provide a sound basis for new courses in FS; 4) to provide information and encouragement for innovations of many kinds; 5) to support the process of creating a society-wide foresight capacity; 6) to constitute a gift to future generations. Core elements of the FS field can be regarded as a knowledge base; at a minimum, they include futures concepts and metaphors, futures literature, futures organizations, futures methods and tools, imaging processes, and social innovations.

After four Forewords (by Edward Cornish, Jim Dator, Tony Stevenson, and Hugues de Jouvenel), the 13 essays in this volume follow in four parts: 1) Origins: I.F. Clarke on the evolution of 20th century futures thinking from amateurs to experts, Peter Moll on futures studies in Europe and the US over the past 50 years, Wendell Bell on the modern futures field (describing purposes and general assumptions of futurists); 2) Futures Concepts and Metaphors: Anthony J.N. Judge on developing a metaphorical language, Eleonora Masini on international perspectives and futures-oriented studies in non-Western cultures, Richard A. Slaughter on futures concepts (alternatives and choices, breakdown and renewal, sustainability, empowerment, the 200 year present, transformational societies, global problematique, the foresight principle); 3) The Futures Literature: Kjell Dahle on 55 key works, Edward James and Farah Mendlesohn on science fiction, Michael Marien on the recent literature of cultural trends, troubles, and transformations [FS Annual 1994 #12160]; 4) Foundations of Futures Studies: Allen Tough on seven priorities for knowledge of our future, Sohail Inayatullah on methods and epistemologies, Jay Ogilvy on scenario planning, critical theory, and the role of hope, Ziauddin Sarder on non-western cultures in futures studies. Slaughter provides a 42-page Glossary of Futures Terms (curiously reprinted in both Vol 2 and Vol 3). (foundations of futures studies)

The Futures of Development: Selections from the Tenth World Conference of the World Futures Studies Federation. Edited by Eleonora Masini (Gregorian U, Rome), Jim Dator (U of Hawaii), and Sharon Rodgers (U of Hawaii). Paris: UNESCO Future-Oriented Studies Programme (Bureau of Studies and Programming), Aug 1991/491p(8x11).

Selections from the biggest WFSF conference ever, held in Beijing (PRC) in September 1988, are in ten sections: 1) Future of the Future: Johan Galtung on the decline in futures studies, Harlan Cleveland on the ingredients of success, Renée-Marie Croose Parry on the need for futures studies to make the leap toward pro-existence; 2) Norms and Values of Development: J.C. Kapur on the decline of consumerist utopias, Walter M. Kroner on the architect's power to design our future, Anthony M. Mlikotin on sources of the future in human nature, Radmila Nakarada on principles of balanced development (balancing the possible and desirable, the traditional and modern), Satish C. Seth on futures consciousness, Henryk Skolimowski on building quality of life and ethical values into models of sustainable development, Ibrihim Abdel Rahman on development and cultural identity; 3) Culture: Eleonora Masini on alternative cultural futures, Benjamin T. Hourani on post-industrial society and Third World development, Sohail Inayatullah on PROUT (Progressive Utilization Theory) as a viable strategy to transform the capitalism system, Bart van Steenbergen on the influence of the East on cultural renewal of the West, Wu Xiaolong on political culture as key to the world future; 4) World Economy: James Brock on applying futures studies in business ventures, Anna Coen on scenarios of consumption and employment in Italy, Jiri Farek on technological progress in developing countries, Brian Murphy on macromarketing and development, Kaoru Yamaguchi on a paradigm shift in economics that moves beyond Toffler's Third Wave; 5) Environment and Development: Raimondo Cagiano de Azevedo on the growing importance of population issues, Nandini Joshi on the charkha (hand-spinning wheel) way of altering the techno-economic process, Hwa Yol Jung and Petee Jung on "ecopiety" as a new ethic for securing a safe future, Eugene B. Williams on effective health care, Jerzy A. Wojciechowski on globalization from the ecology-of-knowledge point of view; 6) Rural and Urban Development: Tibor Hottovy on spatial impact of new technology in Sweden, James Robertson on investment in local economic self-reliance, Ibrahim Jammal and Michael Gurstein on reversing inequities in rural-urban development, Mesbah-us-Saleheen on future urban growth in Bangladesh; 7) High and Traditional Technologies: Bao Zhong-Hang on outer space as the fundamental way out for humankind, Deng Shoupeng on ten high-tech industries of the future, Qin Pinduan on the future impact of robots, Ana Maria Sandi on impact studies of high technologies, Tony Stevenson on policy issues for communicating in the Pacific, I.G. Ushkalov and B.A. Kheifets on the challenge of the technical revolution, Clement Bezold and Robert Olson on alternative futures for infotech and the information industry in 2000; 8) Changing Political Institutions: Yehezkel Dror on 8 proposals to upgrade capacity of central minds of government to engage in social architecture and 22 principles for advanced policy reasoning, Gong Xiangrui on the long-range goal of building a socialist political system with a high degree of democracy, Jiang Shunxue on the military future in China, A.J.N. Judge on governing sustainable development through metaphor, Tetsuo Ogawa on the future of Japan beyond the hegemonic state, Hiroshi Ouchi on the Asian Pacific system in 2000, Tuk Chu Chun on prospects for a Korean confederation as an interim arrangement for reunification; 9) Education, Women, Children: Ruthanne Kurth-Schai on children's images of the future, Mitsuko Saito-Fukunaga on the future for Japanese women, Allen Tough on nine goals for the next 100 years, Xiao Qi-hong on cultivating capable people in China, Rick Slaughter on the premises and promises of Critical Futures Study, William H. Boyer on a proposed "universal curriculum" grounded in human rights. Concludes with working group reports on development values, culture, world economy, ecological development, rural-urban development, political institutions, education (with notes on four generations of futurists), women, children, and entrepreneurship. [NOTE: West meets East in perhaps the most diverse futures compendium ever; frequently idealistic, but a useful contrast to the generally more short-term thinking of the UNDP Round Table, above.]

(WFSF Beijing Conference proceedings)

What Futurists Think (Special Issue). Edited by Sohail Inayatullah (Queensland U of Technology). Futures, 28:6/7, Aug-Sept 1996/509-694.

Over 100 futurists were invited to write a brief essay on what they do, what has influenced them, how they work, the forces creating the world, and/or the world they would like to live in. They are said to be selected so as to balance culture, age, gender, and theoretical perspective. Some of the 52 essays herein: Olugbenga Adesida seeks to put across constructive ideas on the future of Africa and advocates an ethos of sustainability; Walter Truett Anderson calls himself an "evolutionist" and mentions a book he is writing on The Future of the Self; Wendell Bell sees himself as part of a social movement "whose members aim to improve the freedom and welfare of humankind"; Clement Bezold notes that "the contribution of futures to making a better world is likely to be as great or greater in the marketplace and through corporations as through governments"; Elise Boulding reiterates her mind-stretching notion of the "200-year present" (reaching from the year of birth of today's centenarians to the 100th birthday of babies born today); Kjell Dahle poses a positive vision for 2025 of a caring global community, the EU dissolved, self-reliance, wide participation, top priority to critical education, and sustainability; Jim Dator confesses that he has been "a total failure" because the world is a worse place than when he started in futures studies 30 years ago (he does not see the 21st century as likely to be very pleasant, but holds "some hope" for the 22nd century); Yehezkel Dror reiterates his ongoing concern with improving governmental critical choices; Riane Eisler reiterates her ongoing concern with realizing a female/male partnership model of human relations; Johan Galtung fears that "peace and futures studies have become too deficient in visionary quality for fear of being marginalized" [NOTE: he has it completely backward: trite and low quality visions create marginalization]; Hazel Henderson recounts her struggles against "economism" (the paradigm that sees economics as the primary focus of public policy); Sohail Inayatullah hopes for a long-term future that is ecologically sensitive, gender-cooperative, and inspiringly spiritual; Anthony Judge explains his long-term interest in "transformative conferencing" and richer metaphors; David Loye fears the escalation of environmental collapse and an increase in terrorism and violence, while applauding the environmental movement and the women's movement; Oliver W. Markley outlines transformation from an information era to an era of global consciousness as desirable and feasible; Ashis Nandy views futures studies as a means of criticizing the dominant social consciousness, an attempt to widen human choices, and a game of dissenting visions; Ziauddin Sardar describes his work on shaping a current discourse on Islamic futures and why the future belongs to Asia; Satish Seth describes his work involving futurology workshops and university courses, the Indian Council of Management and Future, and the All-India Futurist Network. [NOTE: Many of these futurists describe a personal background in several countries or cultures. No techies here; rather, virtually all express a worldview favoring sustainability, more democracy, diversity, decentralization, peacefulness, gender balance, etc. In contrast, What Futurists Believe by Joseph F. Coates and Jennifer Jarratt (Lomond, 1989; FS Annual 1990 #10234), clearly offers less diversity in futurists (examining the views of 17 aging white male futurists, 15 of them Americans), but, ironically, greater

The Futures of State Courts (Special Issues). Edited by Sohail Inayatullah (Communications Centre, Queensland U of Technology, Brisbane). Futures Research Quarterly, 9:4, Winter 1993/88p & 10:1, Spring 1994/80p.

The Winter 1993 issue is largely devoted to futurists on emerging legal issues. Jim Dator lists five "Tsunamis" of gigantic change (global overpopulation, the global economy, environmental degradation, new technologies, and disintegration and reunification of old and new nation-states) and four scenarios (teleworking global justice, decentralized green and feminist justice, inertia forever, and judicial leadership). Clement Bezold considers some challenges that sci/tech will pose to future courts (virtual reality, rights of robots, genetic issues, psychic crime). Sharon Rodgers describes culturally appropriate dispute resolution in the Hawaii Judicial system. Wendy L. Schultz ponders alternative futures of immigration, ethnic composition, and community conflict as the white majority continues to wane. Frances Kahn Zemans criticizes scenarios presented at the 1991 Hawaii Judicial Foresight Congress for not going far enough. Paul Alston presents a lawyer's view of societal pressures for reform and the future of the justice system.

The Spring 1994 issue is largely devoted to the views of those associated with various judicial systems. Donald Dahlin of South Dakota reports on state court long range planning (18 states reported at least one finished product) and explains the dominance of short-term thinking (being overwhelmed by present problems, blindnesses to the future, fragmentation of the court system, the lack of involvement of high status stakeholders). Sohail Inayatullah [formerly a futures researcher with the Hawaii Judiciary] examines how the present and the future can be linked in judicial bureaucracies. Other essays describe judicial planning in Virginia, trends and future activities of the Sixth Judicial Circuit of Florida, the work of the Georgia "Court Futures Vanguard" (a group of over 100 government representatives, lawyers, and citizens), the Commission on the Future of the Courts in Massachusetts, and the Commission on the Future of the California Courts. Closes with a "Judicial Foresight Bibliography" of about 160 items. (judicial futures)

The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives on the Futures of the University. Edited by Sohail Inayatullah (Queensland U of Technology) and Jennifer Gidley (Southern Cross U, Lismore, Australia). Westport CT: Bergin & Garvey (Greenwood), Jan 2000/270p/$65.00.

The traditional university is under challenge/threat from various forces worldwide. Four crucial drivers are globalism, multiculturalism, virtualization and the Internet, and politicization (the university as a site of dissent in the South, and as part of the postindustrial problematique in the North). The 19 essays, seeking to provide insights into alternative futures, are in four parts: 1) Western Perspectives: the modern university as a Tower of Babel and the need for transdisciplinary studies, challenges to university survival under radically shrinking public budgets (mass provider institutions will be much more entrepreneurial), new "convenience institutions" to serve the potential world market of 185 million students in the next five years, visions of the virtual university and faculty reaction, the transition from bricks to bytes (by Jim Dator, who notes that Western culture "is not likely to be the dominant culture of the 21^st century and beyond"), the half-life of knowledge and time/space as costs (by Tom Abeles), three scenarios for the future university (status quo, the commodified university, the on-line learning community), elements of a futures active learning system; 2) Nonwestern Perspectives: recovery of indigenous knowledge and dissenting futures (by Ashis Nandy, who seeks pluralizing knowledge), alternatives for Pakistani universities (privatization, Islamization, modernization), the university in the Middle East, universities in the Caribbean; 3) Alternative Universities: a vision of a future women's university, Tantra as an episteme for future generations (the educational philosophy of P. R. Sarkar), advanced learning networks and experience camps, consciousness-based education; 4) Transformations of the University: three likely scenarios by Sohail Inayatullah (the airline partnership model of transferable credits in a global web, the virtual university with face-to-face workshops, and lifelong learning in a global leisure society), three scenarios for faculty and institutions by Jennifer Gidley (the broker, the mentor, and the meaning-maker; the corporatized mega-university, the traditional "brand name" model, and the alternative or regional "niche" model. [NOTE: Suggests a wide range of alternatives. A useful companion to Duderstadt (above), who, from long experience, has a deeper understanding of a wider variety of trends--yet is no less creative in articulating options.]

(university alternatives)

Deconstructing the Year 2000: Opening Up An Alternative Future, Sohail Inayatullah (Prof of Futures Studies, Queensland U of Technology), WFSF Futures Bulletin (World Futures Studies Federation; www.WorldFutures.org), 26:1, April-May 2000, p1, 8-10.

Unfortunately, most visions of the long-term future remain technocratic. Can we expect the world problematique to change? "We should not be stupid and forget the deep structures that mitigate against change: the symbols of progress, of velocity (the Internet era), of soft fascism, monoculture appropriating the other (Disneyland), of artificiality (genetics and plastic surgery) and standardization (McDonalds) remain dominant. The future will be driven by technological linear progress, with corporations as the world's leaders." Yet there are positive signs: 1) an emerging language, an ethos of an alternative future, the possibility of a "communication-inclusive society" (gender equality, living softly with nature, commitment to future generations, a spiritual core) and authentic civilizational dialogue; 2) the language of rights has become dominant, and a powerful vehicle for social change, although "slavery continues in practice" [even worse, it is taking a new form; see FS 22:3/166]; 3) the future must be personalized, and future generations studies personalizes the future, locating it in family and in the real lives of our children's children; 4) although capitalism continues to flourish and expand, there is at least a language of economic democracy, corporate accountability, and the quadruple bottom-line (gender, profit, nature, society); 5) globalism, even as it reduces the choices of most people, gives us a language that can be used for systemic transformation; 6) the language of action at a distance (ideas, fields of awareness) can transform the world. Is any of this likely? We need to see postmodernity, the loss of a center, as a natural end-phase of modernity; following a period of chaos, there will be a return to a new universalism--a better period for the majority of the world, based on decentralized economies. "Alternatively, the artificial future, where only a few work and the rest of us exist without meaning or hope, remains possible, even probable." (alternative to the artificial future)

The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies. Vol 3: Directions and Outlooks. Edited by Richard A. Slaughter (Futures Study Centre, Melbourne). Hawthorn, Victoria: DDM Media Group, July 1996/396p.

The 18 contributions are in three parts: 1) New Directions in Futures Thinking: Vuokko Jarva on female futures studies, Ivana Milojevic on principles for non-sexist futures research (acknowledge the pervasive influence of gender, be concerned about ethical implications of research, emphasize transformation of patriarchal institutions), Qin Linzheng on the interdisciplinary construction of the futures field, Mika Mannermaa on chaos and the new evolutionary paradigm, Richard A. Slaughter on implementing foresight for future generations, Yehezkel Dror on core tasks and deficiencies of futures studies, Wendell Bell on a proposed Code of Professional Ethics for Futurists, Sohail Inayatullah on a new post-development vision that challenges linear and cyclical visions of the future; 2) Outlook for the New Millennium: Ervin Laszlo on three scenarios for the human future (laissez-faire, government-managed, world order), Ashis Nandy on the dissent of the shaman and re-imagining the Third World, Keith Suter on a five-point strategy for waging peace, Mahdi Elmandjra on cultural diversity as key to future survival, Lester W. Milbrath on envisioning a sustainable society, Charles Birch on values for the 21st century (ecological sustainability, justice for non-humans, re-enchantment of science), Godwin Sogolo on the futures of Africa, Susantha Goonatilake on traversing future technologies with ancient Buddhist concepts; 3) The Long View: Herbert G. Gerjuoy on the most significant events of the next thousand years [FRQ, Fall 1992; FS Annual 1994 #12170], Duane Elgin on the challenge of planetary civilization [FS Annual 1994 #12167].

[NOTE: Overall, these three volumes are an heroic attempt to define the KBFS, with many excellent essays, especially on methodology. However, "the field" may still be underestimated by a factor of perhaps 10, or even 20 (which raises the question: is FS a "field" at all?). For example, KBFS Volume 2 profiles five futures organizations (admitted to be a "small sample"), whereas The Futures Research Directory: Organizations and Periodicals 1993-94 (WFS, 1993; FS Annual 1994 #12722) profiles 187 organizations and 124 periodicals--and many other important organizations are missing. Both Future Survey and The Encyclopedia of the Future (FS 18:4, #96-151) treat a far broader subject range (and, according to co-editor Graham Molitor, the Encyclopedia only contains about 40% of what it could ideally cover). KBFS is essentially on world futures, with little or nothing on technology, cities, health, education, business, crime, etc). KBFS promotes a single ideology/worldview (essentially humanist/democratic/ecological and often idealistic) not opposing views. Is a broader but messier view more realistic and desirable? If not, why?] (directions of futures studies?)

Complexity: Fad or Future? (Special Issue). Edited by Ziauddin Sardar (London; Consulting Editor, Futures) and Jerome R. Ravetz (Joint Research Centre, Commission of the European Communities). Futures, 26:6, July-Aug 1994, 567-696.

20th-century mathematics has undergone a succession of fashions (game theory, fuzzy sets, catastrophe theory), each claiming that it would solve most if not all the world's problems. Now we have complexity or complex systems: is it just a fashion, or will it have a more lasting impact on the way in which we conceive and operate on the world around us? These essays discuss complex systems as the focus of important innovative research (reflecting the progressive displacement of classical physics), chaos and evolution, paradigms of ecological function, complexity and coevolution, hierarchy theory and sustainable development, a thermodynamic paradigm for the development of ecosystems, and a review by Sohail Inayatullah of three recent books on complexity and its implications. In a long essay on Western and non-Western science, Sardar notes that the new sciences of chaos and complexity display all the traits of postmodernism: emphasis on diversity, abolition of the ontology of separateness, and accent on interconnectedness of everything. Complex systems have the ability to balance order and chaos at the "edge of chaos." Chaos and complexity undermine reductionism and paint a more pluralistic picture of reality than modern science. Complexity makes chaotic all the assumptions and assurances with which science has operated for the past 400 years. (implications of complex systems thinking)

The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies (Special Issue). Edited by Richard A. Slaughter (Inst. of Education, U of Melbourne). Futures, 25:3, April 1993, 227-374.

Slaughter states that the knowledge base of futures studies is no more challenging, no less soundly based, than many other fields. "The futures field may or may not be a discipline in the narrow sense. What is incontrovertible is that it produces working knowledge and supports disciplined enquiry." A viable model emerges from the layering of six core elements: 1) language, concepts, and metaphors (alternatives, options, sustainability); 2) theories, ideas, and images (evolution, progress, chaos, wise culture); 3) literature [a core of "about 200 key books" is mentioned but not explicated]; 4) organizations, networks, practitioners (WFS, WFSF, Club of Rome); 5) methodologies and tools (scanning, scenarios, Delphi, models); 6) social movements and innovations (peace, women, environment). Although the field may have fallen on hard times in some contexts, the times are ripe for a steady resurgence of futures work because it is important.

Seven long essays reinforce this view of core elements. Sohail Inayatullah describes three frames of reference (the predictive, the interpretive, the critical), poses basic images of the future (growth, collapse, reversion to past, transformation), and lists 20 metaphors of time (generational, lifecycle, leisure, lunar/solar, geological, cosmic, etc). Martha J. Garrett outlines the steps of the futures project (clarifying purpose, hiring a team, building networks, etc) and the futures study (gathering information, determining key variables, constructing scenarios, selecting strategies, etc). Anthony J. N. Judge recalls some of the cognitive functions of metaphor and applies them to the future as "what" (leaps, jumps, good times, Gaia), "where" (forwards, the future in children), "which" (choice between alternatives), "when" (linear progress, cycles), "who" (the future as the returning Christ or Anti-Christ, or as a leader such as Bill Clinton), "how" (chickens come home to roost, riding waves of change), and "why." Richard Slaughter defines three core areas of activity in the futures field (futures research, futures studies, futures movements), and articulates 20 key concepts such as choices, sustainability, the metaproblem, cultural editing, re-negotiating meanings, the foresight principle, limits to growth). Ian Miles considers the tenuous relationship of science fiction to futures studies, finding much SF unable to cast light upon the present. Hazel Henderson points to citizen movements as social early warning systems that prefigure trends, noting that they have emerged as major actors leading the worldwide search for global ethics and survival-enhancing cultural DNA codes. Rolf Homann and Peter H. Moll survey the Western futures organizations (WFS, WFSF, Futuribles, and a few others), finding "a surprising lack of cooperation" and questioning the management of most.

Ten mini-essays on the futures studies knowledge base are also included. W. Basil McDermott points to the problems of generating new knowledge, such as revealing complexity and previously hidden problems. Michel Godet cautions against reducing anticipation to scenario building. Yehezkel Dror views most futures studies as a messy mix of superficial and fashionable normative preferences, along with predictive outlooks that lack deep grounding. Eleonora Barbieri Masini applauds the role of women in building alternative futures. Samar Ihsan asserts that empowering women ensures the success of democracy and the progress of society. Magda Cordell McHale cautions against cultural arrogance. Allen Tough urges more integrative and big picture thinking. Igor Bestushev-Lada considers how "barracks socialism" in Russia and elsewhere can be transformed from a pathological situation to a normal one. Donald N. Michael reminds us that futures studies are epistemologically groundless, and that they reflect a Western cultural bias. Lester W. Milbrath asserts that we have no other choice but to learn our way to a sustainable society. Concludes with an annotated bibliography of selected non-US sources from Europe, India, South Asia, the Pacific Basin, and Britain. [NOTE: An ambitious project. Still, are the essential elements included (#93-405)? And does this melange of tools add up to a "field"--or is it some other kind of entity? Surely, one would think that futurists would consider alternative models for their own enterprise. In any event, at present, this is the best intermediate-level orientation to futures studies.]

(futures studies knowledge base)

Advancing Democracy and Participation. Edited by Bart van Steenbergen, Rudmila Nakarada, Felix Marti, and Jim Dator. 08037 Barcelona: Centre Catala de Prospectiva and Centre UNESCO de Catalunya (Mallorca, 285), Sept 1992/211p(8x11).

Selections from the XII World Conference of the World Futures Studies Federation, held in Barcelona in September 1991, including Christopher B. Jones on democracy as if the planet mattered (synthesizing feminism, ecology, and participatory organizations), Bart van Steenbergen on ecological citizenship for the 21st century (the new Earth citizen as an active participant), Eleonora Masini on democracy and women, Sohail Inayatullah on the democratic vision of the late P.R. Sarkar, Godwin Sogolo on democracy and participation in Africa, Samuel Decalo on redemocratization in Africa, John W. Forje on the experience of advancing democracy in Cameroon, Jaganath Pathy on the strategy of sustainable self-development or ethnodevelopment, Ikram Azam on promoting participative democracy in the Third World, Ana Maria Sandi on prospects for restoring civil structures in fast-changing Eastern Europe, Tony Stevenson and Darren Schmidt on communication and learning in the transition to participatory social organization and development, Sirkka Heinonen on infotech encouraging participation in building a sustainable society, Jim Dator on the relationship between democracy and IT, Anthony J.N. Judge on improving participation in international conferences such as those of WFSF, Richard Slaughter on an agenda for the 21st century and the need for a wisdom culture, Wendy Schultz on futures workshops in Hawaii and structured dreams, and Antonio Alonso Concheiro reflecting on the entire conference.

(WFSF 1991 Barcelona conference)

World System Futures: After the Terror, Sohail Inayatullah (Professor, Tamkang U-Taiwan, Sunshine Coast U-Australia, and Queensland U of Technology). www.wfs.org, 4 pages, Sept 2001.

This terrifying crime against humanity can be explained (but never justified) by the equation of perceived injustice + nationalism/religious-ism + an asymmetrical world order. To survive, humankind needs to move to a new level of identity. As Phil Graham (U of Queensland) writes, "We are the Other. We have become alienated from our common humanity, and the attribute, hope, image, that might save us--the `globalization' of humanity." There are crucial differences between Bush and bin Laden, but there is a similarity: the US and England are the main exporters of weapons, creating increasing levels of planetary insecurity, as do the terrorists. Each distorts what it means to be human by focusing on one dimension. We need a dialogue of civilizations, and within religions, between the hard and soft side. Social movements must continue challenging the asymmetrical nature of the world system--the structural violence and silent emergencies--and push for a new globalization while protecting local systems that are not racist/sexist/predatory. Resolving the equation of terror must deal with crimes against humanity (which cannot be tolerated) as well as perceived injustices, the "isms," and world system structure.

Three scenarios suggest the near and long-term future: 1) Fortress USA/OECD: this gives a short-term illusion of security, but will result in poverty and sham democracies where real power lies with the right wing aligned with the military/police complex; the Islamic world will respond with Fortress Islam, becoming even more feudal and mullahist, and forcing individuals to be "with us or against us," denying the multiplicity of selves that we are becoming; without root issues being resolved, terror will find other vehicles of expression. "Fortresses are remembered in history for being overrun, not for successful defense against `others'." 2) Cowboy War--Vengeance Forever: Bush has evoked the Wild West and the consequences are endless escalation in a war that the US may win (or get mired in a new Vietnam); Cowboy War will work in the short term, but eventually could slowly lead to global fascism. There are fortunate signs that Bush and others are listening to their soft sides and building friendships and seeking long-term solutions. 3) Gaian Bifurcation: we cannot make traditionalists modern; rather, we must move from tradition to a transmodernity inclusive of multiple, layered realities--a Gaia of interdependent civilizations plus a system of international justice. A new equity-based multicultural globalization means moving to world governance, human (and animal) rights, economic democracy, gender partnership, a transformed UN with increased direct democracy, and an emergent healing discourse (toward others, toward the planet, and for future generations). "In workshops around the world, this is a desired future." We must have the courage to create this integrated planetary civilization that moves us beyond the capitalist West and the feudalized, ossified non-West. "I hope it will emerge through ahimsa (inner and outer non-violence), and not versions of endless terror. We need to choose life." [NOTE: Inayatullah is a widely-published futurist scholar who was born in Pakistan and raised in New York, Indiana, Geneva, Islamabad, Kuala Lumpur, and Honolulu. This work is part of the MP scenario effort (23:10/473).] (need to move to transmodernity)