How Well Do You Get Along With Your Robot? (2015)

Automation and our jobless futures

SOHAIL INAYATULLAH

 

THE CHALLENGING FORECAST

A recent report by the Foundation for Young Australian provides three dramatic forecasts. These are: [i]

  • 44 per cent of jobs will be automated in the next 10 years
  • 60 per cent of students are chasing careers that won’t exist
  • Young people will have an average of 17 different jobs

BACK TO THE 1990S

While forecasts like these are normally reserved for predictive futurists, the dramatic nature of disruption that the world has experienced the last twenty years has made change the norm. If we go back twenty years ago to the early 1990s, a number of significant changes were just beginning that have been instrumental in creating the world we live in today. These included:

  1. The fall of the Berlin wall, the breakdown of the Soviet Union and the eventual integration of much of Eastern Europe into the European Union.
  2. The beginning of the worldwideweb creating now a world where the pivotal issue today is the virtual entering the material world – “leaving the screen”, the creation of the internet of things, persons and systems – the full digitalization of information and the perhaps the realization of the hundred year dream of the HG Well’s The World Brain.[ii]
  3. The beginning of the human genome project, creating a world where prevention becomes the norm and every Australian born in 2025 could receive a full life map of personalized genetic risk factors.
  4. The rise of China (and to some extent India), with China moving from a peripheral global economic player – from twenty billion in foreign reserves to nearly four trillion [iii]and rapidly becoming the largest economy in the world.
  5. The beginning of ageing throughout the Western world and East Asia, leading to a number of issues including depopulation with entire European villages for sale for under 100,000 euros,[iv] lifelong learning, and the quite dramatic shift from there being enough young people to pay for the pensions of the aged, to there being a lack of young people to pay for pensions. The lack of young people impacts not just the superannuation formula (the worker-retiree ratio) but decreasing enrolments in the education sector, among other factors.
  6. The beginning of what we now call international terrorism with the Arab CIA recruits eventually becoming Al-Qaeda, uniting with the Taliban, and further disruptions in Iraq and Syria leading to the rise of Daesh. The result of the inability of find a geopolitical solution then leading to the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War Two, indeed, calling into question the entire European project. With Russia now joining the war in the Middle-East, we can easily anticipate Afghanistan 2.0.
  7. The 90s also began the great boom – from globalization, from the peace dividend, and from the imagination of the “end of history,” of social and political conflict. But history as it turned out would not end, instead, a global financial crisis resulted, caused by
  8. the shift of the world economy to China,
  9. disintermediation created by the new digital and robotic technologies,
  10. the shift from coal and oil to the new “renewables”,
  11. lack of global and national regulation of financial institutions, and,
  12. speculative bubbles in housing.

The result for education has been a shift from education has an investment to education as an expense. Governments throughout the world have been reducing their expenditures in education, as they deal with increased social security costs and security costs (from the reality and the imagination of international terrorism).[v]

To deal with the new reality of decreased government subsidies, in 2015, universities find themselves moving toward virtual learning with the intention of having more students with less labour costs, and continuing to expand to new areas -the emerging markets where the demand for education is insatiable.[vi] At the same time, to deal with drop in government funding, there is the continued casualization of the workforce, with more being demanded for less. [vii] In Australia, ‘‘casualization’’ is now 60 percent of the higher education workforce (Luyt et al., 2008).[viii] Comparing the university to the garment industry, Patricia Kelly calls casual lecturers ‘‘piece workers of the mind’’ (Kelly, 2011).[ix]

THE NEXT TEN YEARS

These trends are unlikely to stop in the next ten years.[x] The number of students enrolled in higher education, for example, is likely to double to 262 million by 2025, with most the growth in developing nations such as India and China.[xi] Over 8 million of these students will travel to other countries. [xii]The market size for global education was 2.5 trillion dollars in 2011[xiii] and is now 4.4 trillion us dollars. It is expected to continue to grow with e-learning projected to grow by 23%. [xiv]

We can thus expect more digitalization and virtualization (and with holograms and virtual technology) far more high-tech-soft touch experiences. We can also expect the continued globalization of education with providers at high school and university levels coming from all over the world, competing for the student dollar. Disruptions are likely. Perhaps it will as with uber, airbnb, snapgoods[xv] and other aspects of the sharing economy, where formal providers – the universities – are disrupted by peer-to-peer app based networks. The means a world where learning is, where you want it, when you want it, how you want it, and at cheaper costs. Education may also be disrupted by the major players – Alibaba, Google, Facebook – who could offer degree courses not just for employees or training but doctoral courses. Of course, national accreditation remains the barrier. While this barrier may be feudal, the debate in the next ten years will be can it be broken, can the castle walls of the university be broached by the new tech “bedouins”. They may be innovators or barbarians but the castle will be challenged.

And, youth expect this to be so. Having grown up in digital environments where the user and connectivity adds value, these digital natives will be in positions of executive power throughout the world by 2025-2030. While there are always pendulum shifts to the” good old days” of the industrial era, in 15 years: ipads and iphones will not be considered new technologies, but like chairs and tables, part of the infrastructure, what is expected.[xvi] The tension between new technologies and traditional worldviews will have been resolved. But this is far from guaranteed.

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

Four possible scenarios are likely.

First: Teach and train for the 1950s. In this future, educators assume youth – high school and university students – will have one job, one career and live in one nation. The story line would be: “teaching for jobs that no longer exist.” Thus, the educational system in this future will be unable to meet the challenges of the major disruptions. For students and teachers, it will be like living in a prison cell (wasting their time and when they are free, they will be irrelevant). As William Bossert, a Harvard Professor who taught computer sciences in the 1970s, recently commented: “If you’re [xvii]afraid that you might be replaced by a computer, then you probably can be-and should be.”

Second: Add a few courses on computers and Asian languages. In this future, through national broadband networks, the speed of access to information changes, but there is no real change in infrastructure. Academic hierarchy continues. Classrooms remain ordered in rows. Knowledge is about repeating information. The story line would be: “too little, too late”. For students, they will face a disconnect between virtual world/peer-to-peer networks and the formal industrial educational system. They will be physically in class but mentally far away.

Third: teach and train for emerging industries. In this future, high schools and universities, indeed, the entire educational system, teaches for the current emerging futures. Curriculum will likely be focused on the following areas:

  • robotics
  • bio-informatics
  • peer to peer
  • care for ageing
  • meditation and emotional intelligence
  • software design
  • city design
  • 3d printing
  • the internet of everything
  • solar and wind energy, including smart houses and cities

The tag line for this future is: “high-tech, high touch.” Students find their needs meet, they are excited about education and blend easily between formal high school and university and their own virtual peer to peer learning frameworks. The value added is not problem solving as computers can do that with ease, but with defining the problem and with being alert to how the nature of the problem keeps on shifting, that is, we are embedded in complex adaptive systems that change as we intervene in the system, as we solve the problem.

The fourth future is more radical and is titled: teach and train for a world after jobs.

This future takes the forecast by the Foundation for Young Australians seriously concluding that the emerging efficiency, collaborative and sharing economy will likely dominate by 2030. Robotics, the internet of everything and major disruptions will make education no longer about jobs but about purpose, adaptability and meaning. The passing on between generations will not be data based but about the sharing of emotional, spiritual and new forms of intelligence. Says Meg Bear, Vice-president of Oracle, “Empathy is the critical 21st-century skill.”[xviii] Indeed, the main issue will be: “how well do you get along with your robot.” [xix]As AI is best suited for standardized work, performance is not about being like a “lean machine,” but as “good at being a person. Great performance requires as to be intensely human beings,” argues Geoff Colvin in his new book, Human are Underrated. Value comes from the ability “to build relationships, brainstorm, collaborate, and lead.” [xx]

It would be a post-scarcity world, where current – 2015 – way of acting and being would be disadvantageous. The tag line for this scenario is: “strangers in a strange land.

Students will find this world both exciting and threatening. Exciting as it opens up many possibilities but threatening in that they will need to adjust to and create new forms of physical and knowledge infrastructure. They future will be truly unknown.

Education would have been disrupted in this scenario. The castle would have been breached. The knights – the professors – could go back to what they truly love – reflecting, learning, teaching, and the creation of new knowledge.

Would it become an ecological playground? Perhaps. But once the moat goes down, it is unclear what will emerge afterwards. Perhaps the villagers outside the castle walls may storm inside, or perhaps they will welcome the new global brain.

We shall see. In the meantime, believing that tomorrow will be likely today is a precursor to obsolescence.

 

REFERENCES

[i] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-24/next-generation-chasing-dying-careers/6720528 – foundation for young australians. Accessed 1 September 2015. For the full report, see: http://www.fya.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/fya-future-of-work-report-final-lr.pdf. Accessed 3 October 2015.

[ii] Well, H.G, (1938) The World Brain. New York: Doubleday.

[iii] http://www.chinability.com/Reserves.htm. Accessed 3 October 2015.

[iv] http://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2014/mar/10/for-sale-spanish-village-free-right-owner. Accessed 3 October 2015. http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/08/23/433228503/in-spain-entire-villages-are-up-for-sale-and-theyre-going-cheap. Accessed 3 October 2015.

[v] For more on this, see: Inayatullah, S. (2012). “University futures: Wikipedia University, Core-periphery reversed, Incremental Managerialism or Bliss for all,” On the Horizon, (Vol. 20, No. 1), 84–91.

[vi] For more on the higher education demand, see: http://www.britishcouncil.org/sites/default/files/the_shape_of_things_to_come_-_higher_education_global_trends_and_emerging_opportunities_to_2020.pdf. Accessed 3 October 2015.

[vii] Whyte, S. (2011), ‘‘Aging academics set university time bomb’’, The Sydney Morning Herald, 16

January, available at: www.smh.com.au/national/ageing-academics-set-university-timebomb-

20110115-19ry1.html. Accessed 24 January 2011.

[viii] Luyt, B., Zainal, C.Z.B.C., Mayo, O.V.P. and Yun, T.S. (2008), ‘‘Young people’s perceptions and usage of

Wikipedia’’, Information Research, Vol. 13 No. 4, December, available at: http://informationr.net/ir/13-4/

paper377.html. Accessed 6 October 2011.

[ix] Kelly, P. (2011), personal communication, 25 January.

[x] http://www.ey.com/AU/en/Industries/Government—Public-Sector/UOF_University-of-the-future. Accessed 6 October 2015.

[xi] http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20120216105739999. Accessed 6 October 2015.

[xii] http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20120216105739999. Accessed 6 October 2015.

[xiii] http://www.edarabia.com/15179/. Accessed 6 October 2015.

[xiv] http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/marketplacek12/2013/02/size_of_global_e-learning_market_44_trillion_analysis_says.html. Accessed 6 October 2015.

[xv] http://www.forbes.com/pictures/eeji45emgkh/airbnb-snapgoods-and-12-more-pioneers-of-the-share-economy/. Accessed 10 October 2015. http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21573104-internet-everything-hire-rise-sharing-economy. Accessed 10 October 2015.

[xvi] http://edition.cnn.com/2012/12/04/business/digital-native-prensky/. Accessed 10 October 2015.

[xvii] Geoff Colvin, “Human are Underrated,” Fortune.com, (No. 10), 1 August 2015, 45.

[xviii] quoted in Geoff Colvin, “Human are Underrated,” Fortune.com (No. 10), 1 August 2015, 45.

[xix] Anne Fisher, “Could you be replaced by a thinking machine?” http://fortune.com/2015/11/01/artificial-intelligence-robots-work/. Accessed 2 November 2015.

[xx] Geoff Colvin, “Human are Underrated,” Fortune.com, (No. 10), 1 August 2015, 46.

The Futures of the University: Wikipedia Uni, Core-periphery Reversed, Incremental Managerialism or Bliss for All? (2011)

By Sohail Inayatullah

 

ABSTRACT

This article explores the alternative futures of the university. After a review of critical drivers identified a decade ago in the book, the University in Transformation, three scenarios are presented. They are: Wikipedia Uni; Core-Periphery reversed and Incremental managerialism. In this last scenario, three zones of change are discussed: (1) zone of elite universities, (2) zone of mass education and (3) zone of experimentation. A final scenario, Bliss for all, the world as a university, is suggested in the conclusion. However, while we have the technology to create such a future, we currently do not have the collective wisdom – at best, bliss for the few is more likely.

In the University in Transformation [1], an anthology of articles on the futures of the university published 10 years ago, we – Jennifer Gidley and I – identified four critical drivers creating the futures of the university. In this essay, the drivers are reviewed and assessed as to how likely they are to continue to shape the plausible futures of the university. The essay concludes with alternative university scenarios.

GLOBALIZATION OF EDUCATION

The first driver identified was globalization, in its current neo-liberal form (and there are many types of globalization – spiritual, ecological/gaian, and utopian, for example), defining has been a resistance by states to continue to subsidize education [2]. This has meant a policy shift from considering education less as an investment and more as a cost [3]. Specifically it has led to categorizing parts of higher education as an export (in Australia, for example, in Brisbane [4] and Melbourne [5], education is the largest export, surpassing tourism) and aspects as an expense. The export-based curriculum areas– seeking to bring in students from the Asia-Pacific, particularly India – tend to be in the “real-world” areas of engineering, business, information technologies and vocational studies. When they are linked to immigration policy [6] they have especially grown, while other areas of knowledge such as philosophy and even languages, have been subjected to current market forces and cutbacks and thus have declined. Indeed, in the context of the continuing global financial crisis, just recently the Australian government announced that entry requirements would be relaxed for students wishing to study in Australia. As well, post-study work rights would be enhanced. [7]

The overall reason for education – as a civilizing force, as part of humanity’s treasure, as a long term investment in children, and as a right to dissent against the prevailing paradigm- has been put aside for shorter term market concerns. In the last ten years, this trend – and the drivers creating it – has not subsided but intensified.

These trends are likely to continue. What is likely to change is the direction of the exports. With the rise of Chindia [8], we can easily imagine a future where Chinese and Indian students stay at home, learning from local outposts of Western universities [9] as well as Chindia’s own educational institutions. Over a period of twenty years we can imagine Western students moving to the Asia-Pacific for higher education (and not only for language learning). While this may seem difficult to imagine now, if we go back twenty years, it would have been difficult to imagine the colossal economic rise of China (foreign reserves at 3.2 trillion dollars in 2011) [10], East Asia (for the first time Asia has more millionaires than Europe) [11,12] and segments of India. [13] Education for Chindia and much of East Asia remains an investment. Not a cost.

VIRTUALIZATION

The second trend identified was the virtualization of education. With fewer funds available for bricks and mortar and the logic of increasing the number of students, ministries of education and universities (led by India, Indonesia, Turkey, South Korea, China and other Asian nations) [14] have focused on using the Web to deliver education. While the savings are high – indeed, in the USA, one university , National Louis University, has even used the “Groupon” approach, offering a discount when at least fifteen people had signed up for the course [15]- and outreach stunning, what has partially hampered the success of distance delivery has been the mindset of university administrators and academics. They still remain in the expert-driven feudal model. That said, new applications; indeed, “an app for everything” is the new analogy for the futures of instruction. New applications are changing the nature of pedagogy and with exponential technological advancement we can see virtual becoming more like face-to-face. Costs will continue to go down (and climate change/peak oil/security concerns are likely to provide further incentives to virtualise). Innovation will continue to find ways for academics and students to become more comfortable in future virtualised “classrooms”. Over the long term the current distinctions between virtual and real will likely disappear and we, particularly digital [16] and genomic natives (the double-helix children), will become comfortable with different types of reality.

DEMOCRATIZATION – PEER TO PEER

The third trend identified was the democratization of education. By this we meant enhanced student participation as well as a flattening generally of the university. Over the last ten years, this has occurred but not expected. The peer to peer web platform has been the greatest flattening process – from Wikipedia to Wikileaks to www.ratemyprofessor.com.[1]

However, and this is crucial, democratization while partially recreating who creates knowledge, has not empowered students or academics in formal university or high school settings. The opposite has occurred. First, there has been a backlash against increased power of those below – a desire to return to the good old days of dominator authority. Second, as universities have adopted the neo-liberal globalization model, creating profits or merely surviving has meant retiring expensive professors and hiring cheaper younger PhDs. And, critically, the hiring has not been “full-time” but casual (no tenure, payment per course, no office space). In Australia,” casualization” is now 60% of the higher education workforce. [18] Comments Robin May who is currently completing her PhD on the university workforce. “You lead a very uncertain life being casual…you are literally hired by the hour, resulting in disengagement from the regular university life.” [19] Comparing the university to the garment industry, Patricia Kelly calls casual lecturers “piece workers of the mind” [20] And this is not a surprise. Globalization in its neoliberal variant “happens in an environment that is increasingly hierarchical, unequal, and insecure,” and it is gendered, women bear the brunt of inequity.[21] Experimental courses (new web courses, in particular) especially futures studies, gender studies and peace studies for example – have emerged by paying academics near volunteer wages. For those at the bottom pay scale, the problem becomes that of loyalty not just to the particular university (“why should I stay loyal when I am paid peanuts”) but to the university model of education itself, that is, “why should I not globalize myself and receive the benefits of globalization.” As loyalty breaks down we can anticipate far more innovation in the tertiary sector. This could include new academic run cooperative universities and alternative universities (with either particular ideological leanings or broader missions) attracting younger academics along different career trajectories. Along with some able to innovate, there will be many who will prefer, rightly, if not wisely, a politics of grievance in the university itself. As cutbacks continue, we can anticipate a far more challenging labor environment.

Returning to the good old days where education was a fully subsidized by the nation-state is currently unlikely but this does not necessarily mean retreating from the dignity of the academic and the nobility of the academic profession. Alternative futures are possible. For elite professors, the physical university and particular university branding will be far less important. In terms of phases, a possible trajectory would be from the lower run casual academic to the traditional tenure track academic to a portfolio academic approach (being linked to a number of universities) and finally to a model wherein the Professor becomes a brand unto him or herself. In each phase, agency is enhanced and the weight of structure reduced.

WAYS OF KNOWING – KNOWLEDGE ON THE EDGES

Our fourth driver or trend was multiculturalism in terms of new ways of knowing becoming an acceptable as part of pedagogy [22, 23, 24, 25]. There is no easy way to measure this but certainly the rise of the web with multiple languages and platforms has created more spaces then traditional hierarchies of knowledge. The rise of Chindia is slowly changing the game as well. But far more impressive has been technology itself as a way of mediating reality. We imagined far more diversity in knowledge regimes – indigenous ways of knowing, spirituality, integrated models of understanding. While these continue to mushroom, it is technology as a way of knowing that has been the disruptive, if not transformative, factor. With at least five billion [26] mobile phones now in global circulation and 6.07 billion estimated by the end of 2011 [27] and more of these becoming smart, pedagogy will keep on jumping the boundaries of the real into the differently real.

THE DISRUPTION

As always, leaving behind factory models of learning and teaching will be crucial as we move to a more 24/7 virtualized and globalized world. Focusing on ensuring equity and life wide and life long learning for those academics who do not become brands unto themselves or have portfolio careers, will be critical in the quest toward educational equity.

And, if national accreditation does break down or become porous, the 2.5 plus trillion dollar education industry [28] will be ripe for a major creative destruction. It will likely not be Google, Wikipedia or Facebook that will become the new Nalanda, Nanjing, Al-Azhar, Al Karaouine, Bologna, or Oxford or ….but someone else who will create the new platform for the pedagogies of the future. Is it wiser for nation-states to hold on to national accreditation, to regionalize as with the EU (and future Asian Union), or attempt to create something truly novel and lead the world by creating an institutional jump? Or…?

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

These questions are best answered through a description of alternate higher educational futures. Three futures are suggested. They are: Wikipedia Uni, Core-periphery reversed and Incremental managerialism.

WIKIPEDIA UNIVERSITY

In the first scenario, two shifts are central. First is a far greater flattening of the university – its structure as well as who teaches and the nature of teaching. While this future includes tremendous global educational diversity, one apt phrase is “the return of Bologna.” In the original University of Bologna model, students hired the professors. Instructors even needed permission to leave the city. The second shift is the reduction or elimination of national accreditation by a select group of nations. While many nations refuse to follow – citing national security, economic development and fear of being overwhelmed by new wealthy corporate entrants –  a few nations still experiment.

Porous national accreditation creates a major disruption leading to a social ecology of flatter global universities. The result is essentially Wikipedia University. There is still room for elite professors who ensure quality control as well as providing prestige. Dominator hierarchy is replaced by functional hierarchy. Quality gains are dramatic as the wisdom of the crowds, plus guidance by elite professors who are induced by salaries and innovation,   lead the way. Income is generated through student fees and advertising on software and hardware applications. Large corporate information providers such as Google jump in. Apple and Android applications play a dramatic role in localizing the global Wikipedia University. Application developers migrate in droves to this new educational platform. New technologies develop that make virtual feel more and more similar to face-to-face. These include holograms and group sharing of information (Cloud 2.0), beyond our current understandings – learning becomes dynamic and evolves quickly.

This does not mean that space for traditional universities disappears. If anything this world is characterized, particularly in the first 20 years, as a social ecology in flux. However, the dinosaurs are the traditional universities. The ability to adapt, determine the nature of the new ecological landscape, reinvent one’s core functions, allow for emergence, and allow stakeholders – students, in particular – to help mould the emerging future is a great advantage. Traditional universities are unwilling to adapt and do not use stakeholders to create, as they see themselves as the experts, indeed, they are even unable to notice that they exist in a rapidly changing knowledge social ecology.

By 2050, the feudal nature of university education is finally overthrown and along with it the factory model of learning. Universities by 2050 are unrecognizable to the visitor from the 20th century.

CORE-PERIPHERY REVERSED

In the second scenario, core-periphery relations are reversed.[29, 30] Phase one of this is currently occurring in China and India with the reverse brain drain. Phase two is the massive investments in education in China in particular, but Asia generally (Japan, Singapore, South Korea, India, for example). Over time, research leads to a positive and creative innovation cycle. [31] China, already, in 2011 is poised to become the world’s patent leader. [32, 33] In the future, tired of rising student fees in the West, and many local Asian success stories, Asian students stay “home” and European and American students join them. Initially this is in the areas of business, science and languages but gradually other fields also become major exports. As the Asian Union moves from only East Asian nations- the Chinese Diaspora – to include other still developing nations, Asia becomes an educational powerhouse. An Asian credit transfer regime is created, similar to the EU Bologna process. [34] Traditional rote learning paradigms for students and factory model pedagogy from Professors is replaced by diverse learning styles. Elite Western professors flock to Asia for the higher salaries. The West begins to experience their own brain drain as students and academic flock to the Asia-Pacific. However, hubris in the West does not allow strategic reactions until too late. Of course, many western universities already have local branches throughout Asia, but these are bought by large Asian universities seeking to export their services back to the empire. By 2050 Asian universities have branch campuses throughout Europe, Australia, and even the United States. Success creates success. Innovation creates Innovation. Power creates reality.

INCREMENTAL MANAGERIALISM – BUSINESS AS USUAL

In this third future, innovations in web 2.0 and beyond (web 3.0: mobile, holograms), globalization, flattening (democratization) and the rise of Asia do not dramatically change the nature of the university. There is incremental change but this does not lead to a tipping over to a new future. Yes, more Asian universities rise in global rankings. Yes, there is far more delivery over the web. Yes, mobility becomes central to pedagogy. Yes, universities accommodate globalization and states reduce investment in them except for courses that bring in export earnings. Yes, many universities become more sustainable changing how they use energy and redesigning curriculum to be climate change and Gaia sensitive. Yes, a world green campus ranking takes off (green metrics). [35, 36] And yes, globo sapiens [37] and cultural creatives [38, 39] gain in strength, and intelligence [40] becomes far more integrated. But over time, the university’s one thousand year conservative tradition continues. Cautious deans are proven correct: squeeze below, attract high paying students, remain connected to the alumni and find expert researchers who can bring in large dollar grants. Three zones emerge: (1) the zone of elite universities that have historical brand recognition- high fees, huge endowments and alumni networks. The world’s leading thought leaders continue to be associated with them. With vast funds, they remains above the market, seeing education as part of civil society, as a human right. (2) The zone of mass education. While this becomes more and more Asia based – demographic dividends in terms of the ratio of young people to old – life long and life wide (formal and informal and creative mixes) learning in the West allows Western universities to grow as well. (3) The zone of experimentation. Even within business-as-usual world, niche universities continue to thrive. Technological and economic disruptions and value changes create spaces for new entrants but only in niche areas. These include Islamic universities or programs teaching Islamic banking, for example, not to mention the new ecological – gardens in universities and universities in gardens – knowledge centres. Some of these experiments move to the mass market and become routinised while others stay on the cutting edge, challenging the current paradigm.

WHAT IS THE RIGHT QUESTION?

There are other possible futures as well. In the University in Transformation, we suggested “Bliss for all” as an idealistic scenario – the world as not just a connected brain but the world as mind. In this future, education is truly for all and the planet becomes not just a complex adaptive learning organization but a healing network as well – learning for ananda/bliss. [1] However, in 2011, while the technology for a world brain appears nearer, the wisdom for a world mind-heart appears further. At best, bliss for the few.

And which future will eventuate? This is the wrong question. Which future does my university desire to create? What support – intellectual, technological, humans and values – do we need to create this desired future? And finally: in a changing social ecology, what and where do we maintain and sustain and what and where do we innovate and transform

 

NOTES

[1] Anecdotally, I remember well one foresight workshop I facilitated in November 2009 in Singapore for Raffles Institution with forty 14 year olds. All of them frequently used Wikipedia, and over 50% claimed to have contributed content to Wikipedia. A few – one or two – had heard of Encyclopedia Britannica. Most had heard of the United Kingdom. And according to a study by the scientific journal Nature, the level of errors is similar. [17] However, Wikipedia articles can be corrected swiftly, while Encyclopedia Britannica takes substantially longer.

 

REFERENCES

[1] S. Inayatullah and J. Gidley (Eds.), The University in Transformation: Global perspectives on the futures of the university. Wesport, Ct, Bergin and Gravey, 2000.

[2] J. Odin and P. Manicas (Eds.), Globalization and Higher Education. University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu, 2004.

[3] Magna Charta Observatory, Crisis, cuts, contemplations: How academia may help rescuing society, Proceedings of the conference of the Magna Charta Observatory 17-18 September 2009. Damini, Bologna, 2010.

[4] http://www.brisbanemarketing.com.au/media/Media-Release.aspx?id=807&returnurl=~/Media/Media-Releases.aspx (accessed 4 January 2011).

[5] http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/pwc-mi-asialink/2009/default.html (accessed 4 January 2011).

[6] http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-yarra-monster-is-killing-us-20100822-13apt.html (accessed 4 January 2011).

[7] Fleur Anderson and Joanne Mather, Rules eased on student visas. The Australian Financial Review. 23, September 2011, 11.

[8] http://www.smh.com.au/business/chindia–you-aint-seen-nuthin-yet-20100923-15o2v.html (accessed 4 January 2011). For a more skeptical view, see S. Tharoor, A Chindia world. Deccan Chronicle 24 December 2010. http://www.deccanchronicle.com/dc-comment/chindia-world-412 (accessed 24 January 2011).

[9] NYU to open 1st American campus in Shanghai http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/culture/2011-01/21/c_13701018.htm (accessed 24 January 2011).

[10] Jamal Anderlini, China’s foreign reserves rise by $194bn. Financial Times. Ft.com.http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/96d6d02c-d683-11df-81f0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1A2M3mIGA (accessed 4 January 2011).

[11] Rand Corporation. Domestic Trends in the USA, China and Iran. www.rand.org (accessed 4 January 2011).

[12] http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Asia-Pacific_millionaires_worth_more_than_Europeans_study_999.html

(accessed 4 January 2011).

[13] S. Tharoor, The Elephant, the tiger and the cell phone: Reflections on India, the emerging 21st – century power. New York, Arcade Publishing, 2007.

[14] http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/publications/inet/1999/ExeSum.html (accessed 4 January 2011).

[15] http://www.psfk.com/2011/09/university-uses-groupon-to-attract-new-students.html (accessed 29 September 2011).

[16] For more on this, see the work of M. Prensky, www.markprensky.com (accessed 24 January 2011).

[17] http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7070/full/438900a.html Accessed 29 9 2011. http://www.wired.com/culture/lifestyle/news/2005/12/69844. Wikipedia, Brittanica: a toss up. (Accessed 29 9 2011).

[18] B. Luyt et al, Young people’s perceptions and usage of Wikipedia. Information research. 13(4) December 2008. http://informationr.net/ir/13-4/paper377.html (accessed 5 January 2011).

[19] S. Whyte, Aging academics set university time bomb. The Sydney Morning Herald 16 January 2011. http://www.smh.com.au/national/ageing-academics-set-university-timebomb-20110115-19ry1.html (accessed 24 January 2011).

[20] P. Kelly. Personal communications. 25 January 2011. pakelly@westnet.com.au.

[21] I. Milojevic, A critique of globalization: Not just a white man’s world in J. Dator, D. Pratt and Y. Seo (Eds.), Fairness, globalization and public institutions. University of Hawai’i Press, Honolulu, 2006, 82. For a feminist view on educational futures, see I. Milojevic, Educational futures: Dominant and contesting visions, Routledge, London, 2005.

[22] S.Inayatullah, M.Bussey and I. Milojevic (Eds.), Neohumanistic educational Futures. Tamkang University, Tamsui, 2006.

[23] M. Bussey, S. Inayatullah and I. Milojevic (Eds.), Alternative educational futures. Sense Publishers, Rotterdam, 2008.

[24] Z. Sardar (Ed.) Rescuing all of our futures. Praeger 21st Century Studies. Twickenham, England, 1999.

[25] R. Sidhu, Universities and globalization: To market, to market, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Inc. New Jersey, 2004.

[26] Jagdish Rebello, Global wireless subscriptions reach 5 billion. September 17, 2010. http://www.isuppli.com/Mobile-and-Wireless-Communications/News/Pages/Global-Wireless-Subscriptions-Reach-5-Billion.aspx.Accessed (accessed 4 January 2011).

[27] Syed Talal, Global mobile subscribers to cross 6 billion, Pakistan ranks 9th. http://tribune.com.pk/story/256342/global-mobile-subscribers-to-cross-6-billion-pakistan-ranks-9th/ (accessed 8 October 2011).

[28]Education is a 2.5 trillion dollar globally. http://www.edarabia.com/15179/education-is-a-2-5-trillion-business-globally/ (accessed 9 October 2011).

[29] US Universities losing clout in global education market.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/03/us-universities-losing-cl_n_599112.html (accessed 4 January 2011).

[30] Lee Lawrence, US college degrees: Still the best among world’s top universities? The Christian Science Monitor -http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/content/view/print/304688 (accessed 4 January 2011).

[31] Particularly noteworthy is the futures research at the Universiti Sains Malaysia. See, University Sains Malaysia, Constructing higher education scenarios. Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, 2007.

[32] Gordon Orr, Unleashing the Chinese inventor. The Wall Street Journal Asia. 28 December 2010.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704138604576030491764296296.html. (accessed 5 January 2011).

[33] China poised to become global innovation leader. http://thomsonreuters.com/content/press_room/legal/626670 (accessed 5 January 2011).

[34] M. Kelo Ed, The Future of the university: Translating Lisbon into practice. Lemmens, Bonn, 2006

[35] Nottingham celebrates world’s green campus ranking. BBC.com. http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/nottingham/hi/people_and_places/newsid_9353000/9353883.stm (accessed 24 January 2011).

[36] UI GreenMetric world university ranking. http://greenmetric.ui.ac.id/ (Accessed 8 October 2011)

[37] P. Kelly, Toward globo sapiens: Transforming learners in higher education, Sense Publishers, Rotterdam, 2008.

[38] P. Ray and S. Anderson, The Cultural creatives. New York, Random House, 2000. https://www.wisdomuniversity.org/emerging-culture.htm (accessed 8 October 2011).

[39] H. Tibbs, Changing cultures values and the transition to sustainability, Journal of Futures Studies, 15 (3), 13-32.

[40] M. Anthony, Integrated intelligence: classical and contemporary depictions of mind and intelligence and their educational implications. Sense Publishers, Rotterdam, 2008.

Seven Hypothesis and Doorways to a Knowledge Economy (2006)

By Sohail Inayatullah

SEVEN HYPOTHESIS AND DOORWAYS TO A KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY

Speech, July 11, 2006

Creating a Knowledge Economy for the Sunshine Coast

 

The image of the future and the learning community

The Sunshine coast currently stands between different images of the future. The first is the traditional, small scale, strong community, fishing village. Basically, this was small scale tourism resort with some of the economy corporatized (local plus national) This image and reality has quickly disappeared in the last few decades. And with population growth likely to continue, it is unlikely that the 1950s Australia can be created. Globalization, cybertechnologies, the genetics revolution, aging and other variables make this unlikely.

The other image is that of endless urban growth, short termism, no concern for the environment, generally becoming totally integrated into southeast queensland, with no real self-identity. Tourism is heavily corporatized here (international plus national with very little family scale ventures). This would mean a conflictual divided society along the lines of access to jobs, eduation, housing and wealth. One group would be the tourists and international investors and the other single parents trying to make a basic living. This appears likely unless government policy, citizen demands and an alternative shared image of the future develops.

There are other images as well. A transformational image, for example, becoming small scale electronically connected communities based on sustainable development and alternative lifestyles – a different type of tourism, a more localised economy.

Also, transformational would be the coast finding some role in the globalized economy, perhaps as a niche player in specific types of emerging tourism – its internationalization. Government working with small scale enterprises, creating some spaces so they are not swallowed by bigger players.

Part of the challenge then is for the Coast to envision the futures desired and develop broad agreement on it. While technologies, global economies and demographic changes push the future, there is a pull of the future – the vision that defines what can be. There is also the weight of the future – traditional practices that limit our capacity to adapt, to meet citizen,market, human needs.

Central to adaption is creating a learning community. This notion is important in that it provides a context for creating an alternative future. It is not a recipe. Recipes for economic success come and go. In the 1980s it was Japanese management. In the early 1990s it was export, export and export. By the late 1990s it switched to Silicon Valley and the notions of clusters of innovativeness – university plus research centers plus the government providing incentives plus a tolerant creative workforce. Success creates success as the image of what is possible changes – the image becomes realizable.

The issue of how to respond to the knowledge economy is not only the problem of the Coast. Taiwan has the same issue. It knows that while copying has served well in the move from agriculture (self-reliance) to manufacturing (low cost producer and exporter), it needs to shift to the new technologies. But how to do so? And which new technologies. The response from the Prime Minister has been the vision of Green Silicon Island ie sustainability plus high technology plus independence. Singapore has met the problem of innovation by legislating creativity – ie pushing art and poetry, buying university leaders, buying biotech industry, but it is still top down governance, soft fascism. The question is can Singapore make the transition from manufacturing and finance to an innovator in other areas, the emerging technologies.

The knowledge economy is in some ways not recent, that is, all surplus, profit is based on knowledge. It is more the percent engaged in agricultural/manufacturing and services has dramatically changed in the last century. Less and less people are needed to produce goods.

In the USA today, 16% of the workforce is engaged in manufacturing, 3% in agriculture and 87% in knowledge and services. Australia is quite similar.

Moreover the mode of producing is changing. What is means is putting knoware in everything, smartness in everything. This is crucial in that while productivity in agriculture and manufacturing has increased 50 fold, changes in knowledge are quite small in comparison.

Thus it also means changing organizational structures so that creativity and questioning can blossom – this is essentially the notion of learning communities. Learning communities can 1. Increase productivity. 2. Weave communities. 3. Create meaning and purpose, that is the framework of the triple bottom line of prosperity, people and environment, that is, what is the triple bottom line for – it is for the vision of the community. Brisbane has focused its entire framework around the vision of the liveable city and now Brisbane 2010. This of course now needs to be updated. We need a similar shared vision for the coast.

Thus, for the Coast, with agricultural in continued decline, manufacturing not likely, and tourism generally low paying, what are the alternatives? Can it produce knowledge on a global scale? Is so, what knowledge can be produced here better than elsewhere; who are the buyers, what is the competitive advantage? How can tourism be smarter? While all reasonable questions that must be answered, I see the “solution” elsewhere, in capacity building, in creating learning communities.

The context of this issue of the rise and fall of collectivities. In Toynbee’s model, it is the creative minority that meets the challenge. For the Coast, the challenge is multifold: 1. Economic transformation, moving away from the uni-dimensional tourism model and toward a knolwedge economy, learning model. 2. Cultural transformation, moving away from uni-culturalism to multiculturalsim and 3. Shared vision, finding shared direction when there are deep cleavages between shires and between interests groups. The learning community model is creating contexts for learning so that the creative minority is far less important, where knowledge is democratized.

However, the notion of a learning community, I hope does not become another recipe, but rather a vision that creates more visions as well as a context that builds the capacity to create better futures.

My analysis of the learning community is the following. The criteria is:

  • Flexibility
  1. Beyond industrial standardized model
  2. From production based to consumer based
  3. Mobility of mind and body
  4. Yoga as metaphor – stretching body and mind
  5. Willingness to engage in cultural stretch (still keep basic root structure), interpretive, not rigid
  • Responsiveness
  1. Needs of community
  2. Needs of market – local and global
  3. Needs of citizens
  4. More important than actual structure of governance ie democracy, aristocracy, dictatorship
  5. Speed, distinctive, courteous
  • Anticipatory
  1. Changing needs of citizen, community, market
  2. Novel planning methodologies – scenarios (divergence), emerging issues analysis (leading indicators of change, short and long term) and causal layered analysis – changes in litany, system, worldview and myth
  3. Using multiple media – web, tv, festivals – for deepening democracy.
  4. Iterative process of opinions plus expert knowledge leading to community guidance
  • Innovativeness
  1. Questioning the product
  2. Questioning past, present and future
  3. Creative destructive
  4. Action learning – learning from doing and reflecting
  5. Out of box – learning hats – white (logical positive); black (logical negative); green (grow the idea); blue (authority); red (passion); and orange (spiritual – synthesis) plus hat for specific function
  • Leadership plus experts plus participatory
  1. Experts bring critical edge, knowledge
  2. People bring community concerns, new ideas, solutions
  3. Inclusion of others – individuals then ways of knowing
  4. Leaders can give direction, vision, create context
    Beattie – smart state.
  • Learning plus healing
  1. Learning to learn
  2. Life long learning
  3. Learning communities
  4. Smartness in all futures
  5. Triple bottom line – people, planet and prosperity
  6. Healing self, other, environment and planet

Example, Biology professor complaining about lack of understanding of species categories versus pokemon.

  • Microvita
  1. Reality spiritual and material
  2. Reality living – symbiotic – community as living organism.
  3. Change through technology, society plus unconscious, collective vision
  4. Evolution can be ethical, with direction

People visit Gaudi in Barcelona because they can’t see it anywhere else? What do we have that is distinctive? How can we embed learning and healing as well as the other points in everything we do ?

And what is our vision for the future of the Sunshine Coast?

Which Future for Libraries? (2006)

Based on a futures workshop of expert librarians and library stakeholders, four futures of the library and librarians are explored: “The Lean, Information Machine,” “Co-location for Community Capacity Building,” “Knowledge Navigator,” and “Dinosaurs of the Digital Knowledge Era.”

Sohail Inayatullah
Professor, Tamkang University and Adjunct Professor, University of the Sunshine Coast. S.inayatullah@qut.edu.au. www.metafuture.org

Will libraries becoming increasingly virtual, the librarian becoming a knowledge navigator? Or will libraries disappear as the world goes wifi – will Google become the future library? Or will place remain central, as libraries become anchor tenants in co-located in commercial and public transit-orientated developments? Or is social justice what libraries are really about – a place for empowering, for creating a better society, finding spaces for young and old, for books and digital media?

The library, while appearing to be stable has changed throughout history. It has moved from being elite based, for the few that could read, to being a public space, and funded by the public has well, instead of by wealthy benefactors. And while the advent of the printing press changed the nature of the library, moving it from the monastery and the painstaking efforts of monk scribes, the recent digitalization of the world is leading to even more dramatic transformations.

The library has entered a contested domain – its definition, its bundle of services are up for grabs – who defines it, who pays for it, what are its basic purposes. And with the onset of edu-tainment and as the peer-to-peer knowledge revolution, might libraries become places not just for receiving knowledge but for directly creating knowledge.

Other issues that challenge a stable future for libraries include:

• Local and state governments dramatically decreasing their funds for libraries – other financial models – user pays, McLibrary.

• Users changing from the young to the aged OR from the aged to the young.

• Libraries buildings as examples of “green” and even developing cradle to grave green technologies for books and for facilities design.

• The library as a place for escape from a chaotic world, eg the Slow Movement: slow time, slow learning – slow everything – as the world quickens and moves to hypertime and culture, libraries find niches by providing places of quietness and calm.

• The librarian becoming a digital avatar, interacting with users, learning about their changing needs, and even in the longer term, organizing our memories.

• The off-shore Call Centre Library.

• Death of the book – continuing emergence of new media formats.

The impact of these emerging issues point to libraries changing dramatically from today – particularly in the areas of funding and location; purpose and skill sets for librarians and core activities.

But would libraries be more digital or slow; for the young or the aged; in suburbs or co-located in denser cities? Which future?

SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE

There are four plausible futures.

The first is the “Lean, Mean, Information Machine.” This future would arise from concern about the costs of buildings, space becoming too valuable and libraries moving down the list of core priorities for funding.

Libraries in this future would need to seek funding through philanthropy to supplement government funding. The choices would be: from the user, from community groups, from Federal and Global grants and from corporate sponsorship. With the expected rise in triple bottom line reporting, it was anticipated that corporate sponsorship may become more attractive as libraries would be an easy and safe way to show that they were good corporate citizens – helping young and old.

The role of some librarians would shift, becoming entrepreneurial, a broker of services and entities (community groups, corporations, city, state and federal authorities).

The second scenario is the opposite of this. Civilizing the world, civilizing ourselves is the foundational purpose of the library. No corporation should fund it, as over time market values would poison human values.

The purpose of the library is that of community builder – providing ideas to all, those who can and those who cannot afford. Books cannot be overlaid with digital sponsorship, purity must be kept.

However, the best way to serve as community builders is to go to the community. “Co-location for Community Capacity Building ” is the title of this scenario. Libraries move to areas of intersection – of young and old, poor and rich, information savvy and digitally challenged. Among possible areas could be transport hubs. Libraries could continue to develop as anchor tenants, co-existing with other government service providers, with coffee shops and commercial tenants. As passengers stepped out of light city rail carriages, they would enter the library. In front to them would be transparent glass, the lighting illuminating knowledge.

Libraries would have multiple shifting rooms, focused on the needs of different groups. Or libraries could segment, based on citizen travel patterns. Some libraries would be more classical – book focused, other edutainment, others as places for social community groups to meet …Or libraries could change during the day – shifting who they were from noon to three pm to evening time.

The librarian would need to be multi-skilled, understanding the diverse needs of different age groups, ethnicities, community groups – engagement with the community would be primary. The library in this future would model what it meant to be civilized: deep and diverse democracy!

In a third scenario, the library and the librarian becomes a “Knowledge Navigator”. Users would see and then create – use information to create new knowledge, new communities, learn and recreate. Libraries would be a hybrid of physical and virtual space with cutting edge technologies, cultural maps of the world, to help users develop their interests, find connection to each other and find their place in the changing digital world. The library would be an ‘experience’.

For those new to the digital world and for emerging technologies they would , it could train them, ensuring democratic and enabling access for all; for those adept, it would create games for them to learn, indeed, gaming may become a metaphor for the library. Users would find their knowledge treasures through clues left by the knowledge navigator or other users engaged in knowledge sharing and production – the division between the fun of electronic gaming and the seriousness of the library would breakdown. Public space would became an open and porous, local and global public space.

The last scenario, takes the knowledge navigator future but makes the tough observation – given the billions of dollars Google and other web engines have to play with, and given the skill sets of their employees and owners, what makes us think libraries can survive. Aren’t they the “Dinosaurs of the Digital Knowledge Era”. The globalization of the coffee shop eats up one market; digital search portals eat up another market, until through continuous dis-aggregation there is very little left. The future of the library is easy to predict – there won’t be any. Funding will move to other core areas for cities – traffic, water, dealing with global warming, competing for young people in an aging society; post-oil energy problems. Libraries will slip down the priority radar as they will not be seen as a response to these issues.

Many librarians as well are unable to meet the challenge of the skills shift. They are unable to be relevant with the new world dis-order. As the library monopoly dies, other competitors enter the fray and foundationally change the nature of the library. A few survive as some still want to see and touch books, but with the virtual book about to include physical senses, the writing is already on the virtual wall.

WHICH FUTURE?

Will one future emerge triumphant? Or will there be a mix and match? Which ever future results, for the librarian, this can be both a trying time to be working, or the best of all possible times, where new futures are emerging, and where she and he can weave the strands of alternatives and create a new future for and of libraries.

Community Futures (2005)

Sohail Inayatullah
Professor, Tamkang University, Queensland University of Technology, Sunshine Coast University and Transcend Peace University. www.metafuture.org

PREFACE

This short article explore the futures of community in Australia. It does so using futures methods. Futures methods seek to understand the future seeing the future not as an empty space to be filled but as a space already seeded by current images and drivers. Futures methods are concerned as much with the future out there (external political, technological, economic variable) as well as the future in here (the myths and meanings each individual and collectivity brings)

For this exercise, we will use four futures methods – the futures triangle, emerging issues analysis, causal layered analysis and scenarios.

First we map the futures using the Futures Triangle The futures triangle has three dimensions – alternative images, drivers and weights.

Second we explore trends and emerging issues, using emerging issues analysis. Emerging issues analysis patterns current known problems, uncertain trends and improbable but of potential high impact emerging issues.

Third we unpack the future, using the method Causal layered Analysis. CLA moves beyond official statements of the problem to underlying systemic causes, worldviews that give meaning to these systems (provide cognitive maps which create shared understanding) and then articulates underlying myths.

Finally we conclude with alternative futures of community in Australia.

CONTEXT

Community, while appearing to have one meaning, can be seen to have multiple meanings and contexts.

First, it is understood in opposition to the market (jungle, economic relations, dog eat dog) and the state (power, party politics).

Second, Community as a site of shared identity, whether that of a neighborhood, a community of scholars, medical professionals, or indeed, sex workers.

Third, recent understanding have moved community to being part of the nation’s (or global) social capital. As necessary for economic growth and for resilience in the face of hardship.

Fourth, have been definitions around health and community. Social inclusion has been identified as a protector against various illnesses. [1]

FUTURES TRIANGLE

(1. THE IMAGES OR PULLS OF THE FUTURE, 2. THE PUSHES OR DRIVERS , and 3. THE WEIGHTS OR BARRIERS)

What are the competing images of community?

1. First is the image of  the white picket fence in the safe suburb. The community is homogeneous, the economy is booming, personal relations are important. Conflicts are handled by community leaders, generally elected representatives. Entrance is difficult in this image.
The push for this image was the transition from agricultural to industrial and then the emergence of the postindustrial economy.
A secondary push were individuals leaving the city because of their higher income for more affluent lifestyles.

The weight has been the environmental impact of suburbs, the health impact (the plaza, the car as primary transport mechanism) and the anomie that has resulted – the disconnect of the suburb with the rest of the world.

2. The global community (of nations, of human). This image is focused on humanistic notions of community instead of political (might will win) or economic (wealth will win) but on rational reasonable “men” negotiating peace and goodwill.

The push to this image was the ravages of war, the need for mechanisms that could ensure peace for future generations. Another push was developments in psychology where the id could be tamed through reason.

The weight has been the military-industrial complex and the centre-periphery nature of the world community (security council, for example, dominating the United Nations).

Governance thus is limited in its participation, eligibility of entry is crucial.

3. The hybrid, emergent image is that of the fluid community. Individuals move in and out of identity. Entrance into the community is based on interest. Exit means a new interest. Movement is easy.

The push in this image has been globalization (rapid movement of capital and now labour, as well as cultural products). A recent push has been digitalization with the creation of new communities. The departure from the suburbs to intentional communities in the last few decades was a precursor to the more rapid global and cyber community creation.

4. The last image is that of active communities. Communities not as site of passivity, of receiving declarations from globalization, nations, developers but as a site of agency. Communities, whatever they may be, visioning their desired futures. Active, healthy, vibrant engaged communities. Empowered by their capacity to vision where they want to go (instead of where they came from), by their capacity to deal with difference, and mediate conflict between the “strangers and dangers” within the community.

The push has been the loss of agency felt by a rapidly changing world (globalization, geneticization, urbanization, terrorism).

The weight is the balance of power between community and national and global interests. As communities strengthen, as globalization strengthens, what of the nation and the state.

We thus have four contending images of the future

White picket fence
Community of nations
Fluid Communities
Active communities

As well as multiple drivers and weights.

EMERGING ISSUES ANALYSIS

These maps are based on current understandings of communities, exits and entries and levels of participation. However, the future may change. Through emerging issues analysis, we chart out what trends and particularly what emerging issues are likely to change this map.

While current problems are around issues of:

1. local communities and national interest (can one be both muslim and Australia)
2. the breakdown of communities (increasing perception of crime, divorce rates, high housing prices leading to demographic shifts, often dramatic). [2]
3. the survival of local economies in a globalized era (the Maleny versus woolworths battle, for example).

Trends are more focused on issues where quantitative information is emerging, for example, 1. the development of cyber intentional communities that are giving new meanings to individuals and communities that are part of them. The rise of citizen visioning among communities.

Emerging issues are further out. Some of these may be:

1. The geneticization of communities. As gene therapy, germ line intervention continue to evolve and play a far more major role in how we create the human population, we may see communities along the lines of who is natural, who is not.
2. Cyber democracy. Currently there are experiments in cyber democracy but focused mostly on reality tv. Cyber democracy may plan a dramatic role in enhancing community participation. A whole range of new forms of political, economic and social participation are possible. This is especially true with dot.com children, ie the digital natives who equate digitalization with flatter organizational structures, malleable associations, and cooperative learning environments.
3. Schools as learning and community centres. As communities seek to find ways to develop collective understanding of a changing world, the notion of schools as centres of learning for the entire community is a possibility that could revitalize the community and create a new hub (previously held by the church).
4. New entrants into the community – how might artificial intelligence systems impact communities. Will pet dogs eventually become a central feature? Will the rise in household robots play a role in how we life, love and learn? Will this lead to increased time for humans? Will ai systems create smart houses, smart transport systems and eventually totally networked and adaptive smart communities?
5. Can communities become alive in the collective sense, ie if we fuse gaian thinking (James Lovelock, The gaia hypothesis)[3] with nano-technology, can the community become as living as its individual members. Will communities of the 21st century be foundationally different to those of previous centuries.
6. What will role will developments in meditation as an IQ enhancing technology play in creating learning communities, that is, if Sheldrake and other transpersonal evolutionary biologists are correct, new memes and learning fields may create a collective intelligence. Will meditation be the strange attractor, the driver for a jump in collective intelligence? Will this jump lead to the creation of more peaceful, prosperous communities?
7. Finally, what will be the future indicators of communities? Will most communities adopt the triple bottom line – economic wealth, social inclusion and environmental sustainability? And is spirituality the fourth bottom line, that which creates the deeper cohesion for all communities.[4]

While these emerging issues may be improbable, especially in the short run, their development in the long run is far more plausible, and promises to change the context of communities.

What should then stay the same? In a world where it is not just the increasing rate of change (which is now a banal statement) but the heterogeneity of change (fast time with slow time; globalization with localization; patriarchy with gender cooperation; clash and cooperation between civilizations) and the loss of agency that make mapping the future crucial, but the complexity of change (how bird flu outbreaks and mutation in Vietnam could dramatically impact communities in Australia).

CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS

CLA attempts to unpack the future, focusing on multiple levels of causality. All levels are equally important and qualitatively different.

Level 1, the litany, is focused on the official description of the problem, how regional newspapers, for example, define problems.

Level 2, the systemic, is focused on the interrelationship of problems, solutions and the systems that support them.

Level 3, the worldview, the cognitive and emotive maps we use to make sense of the world, is focused on divergence, of stakeholders can have dramatically different takes on a subject.

Level 4, is the myth and metaphor level, this is the story. Level 4 is the hub of the spoke on the wheel, hardest to change, but leads to the deepest change.

If a current issue is the fragmentation of community, then at that level what is the solution. This is often creating government programs to fund those under risk. It is also church programs and speeches by clergy for more morality, for taking care of others.

A level 2 analysis shows how the fragmentation of the community is created by multiple factors – globalization and economic movement, labour shifting to different areas of the market. Second is the search for a better life, movement toward the Beach. Third, is the work requirements of a postindustrial economy (two incomes, quick time) and the resultant loss of leisure (except as packaged leisure) and loss of family. Fourth is the rise of the women’s movement, desire for a fair go, fair wages, and the resultant loss of the hub of the community (the women’s circle of sharing information, data and gossip, all foundational and evolutionary necessities in creating the communities of today. As time speeds up, as work increases, then the individual family and then the community all are put under pressure. Strategies focus on labour saving devices, new entertainment centre (to escape work and create the tele-community), hiring casual workers to engage in the household economy. The creation of urban villages has been a dramatic strategy, a return to the city but in a village context, thus moving away from the ravages of the suburb.
Level 2 solutions require whole of government but as well whole of society strategies. They are complex with intervention in one site changing the entire landscape.

A level 3 analysis asks: what the are the dominant worldviews around community? What are the main stakeholders.

First is the economic worldview, where community was essentially about potential consumers. Technology has enhanced this by opening up the home as a site of shopping. The plaza has become the postmodern cathedral. “I shop therefore I am” creates community meaning.

Second is the green worldview. Community is the site of agency, of creating environmental, economic and cultural sustainability. Community need to be both socially inclusive (dialogue of religions, civilizations) and are central to creating the good society. Community is the real polis, where differences are understood and the good society create.

Third is the national. Community is an important part of governance, even if the lowest. Federal to state to local. It is at the community where neighbors can ensure that no terrorists are operating; it is at the local where policies can succeed, where elections are won and lost. It is at the local that the myths are generated (the aussie battler, for example). Communities are required for the running of a healthy nation – they ensure that traditional values of family, One god, one people, values (respect for elders) continue. Community is where we feel safe and at home. Community at heart is about security, and comfort.

Fourth is the globalist – Community is what defines us, we become who we are through the social. Communities must be porous, allowing new ideas, capital and labour through. They are quick, they adapt, they provide the glue that allows a world community to emerge. Communities thus are layered moving from the small to the grand.

At this level, the key is to understand that individuals hold different worldview and often cannot understand the perspective of others. Policies fail because the worldview map does not allow individuals to make sense of others.

The myth level is the deepest. It is here that true and long lasting social change can occur. By understanding current myths and creating new myths, community can change, become far more participatory if need be.

What are some of these myths – as mentioned earlier, the white picket fence is one notion of community – home sweet home.

Another myth is that of community as a journey, as a caravan moving in a direction – this is the myth of frontier, of inclusion and expansion. There is a utopian, even spiritual dimension.

A third myth is that of the divided community – the community at war, deep conflict. These are often economic but disguised as religious. Who gets what, who has access to power. This story is about breakdown, about loss.

The last story is about the community and resilience. The community gives us health, we live longer being part of a community. We are healthier. We may struggle in a community but it gives to us as much as we give to it. The community is living, part of an adaptive learning culture. It is organic and we are its cells.

While the previous methods map the future, this final method, scenario visioning articulates the differences. These can be used to understand plausible futures and to give direction from the present to alternative futures.

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

These scenarios are developed from the methodological context of the futures triangle, emerging and cla. In addition, two variables are crucial:

  1. Integration to fragmentation
  2. Inventive to tradition

1. Communities in Disintegration. Divided by religion, by the inequity from globalization, from the hyper time of postindustrial knowledge economy, from increased demands and rights from the state. Communities are in increased risk. Australia travels the slow but sure path to a divided nation. The gains from its historic “fair go” history are lost as globalization creates a two class society. The rich, the mobile, the learned and the poor, single parent familes. The latter seek to join the world community, the latter seek to return to 1950s Australia. They want their picket fence and are enraged that world is no longer possible. Other divisions are between the aged and the young, each with different urban planning needs. The future for many does not look good. Political leaders however point to the GNP, which continues to grow and astound. Participatory democracy continues however, it is focused on trivial matters – beauty kinds and queens, virtual game shows, and the new “throw out one community member a year.” Gated communities thrive and many now think of the swiss model of citizenship, where the community decides who become Australian. The “fair go” is just a memory. “Give me mine” is more current.

2. Community in Flex. Globalization, technologization, intentionality, postmodernism (choosing based on preference not on tradition, ending the father to son model of religion and land rights). There are multiple communities. Australians are leaders in creating intentional communities. Social learning, social innovation has created institutional rules so that communities are safe, adaptive, learning. Communities are layered, both local, regional and global, even beyond global. Some even imagine space communities, however, most live in multiple communities – of professions, of virtualities, of genetic, of spiritual, of …Communities are constantly invented. Participation is fluid, certainly widespread. But is it deep? Commentators argue that endless choice has not given the health safeguard. Fluid communities do not provide the social protection against heart disease and cancer. Some flourish in this environment. Other are confused, and miss the safety and security of the picket fence, even if they could never be part of it.

3. Communities enclosed. In response to the breakdown of community and the simultaneous trend of the community in fluid movement, most individuals opt for enclosed communities. There is safety in likeness. Federal institutional roles ensure that there is little discrimination, however, generally once one enters a community, there is no desire for exit. Participation remains through electoral democracy. However, there remains tension between those who are fluid and those who prefer gates communities and even gated cities. Entry and exit barriers are high.

4. Communities in sustainability. The experiments of triple bottom line of twenty years ago were successful. Communities enhance inclusion and social capital by focusing on the triple bottom line. The fourth bottom line of spirituality (with the thousands of studies showing the relationship between spirituality and enhanced immune systems, IQ, longevity) is just beginning as well. Communities are open to globalization but insist on regulating speed, slowing it down when necessary. Political participation is deep with the recreation of town hall meetings. Cyber technology plus face to face lead to learning communities. The crisis of global warming and other changing patterns mean that communities are outposts for foresight, ensuring that their sustainability leads to global sustainability.

CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS

First, business as usual will likely lead to the divided community future. Merely leaving issues of community to market forces or even to federal intervention is unlikely to be effective. Finding ways to encourage, seed, community, to empower, as with the Grameen bank experience is likely to be far more productive. Government can set rules of engagement to ensure innovation and equity, however.

Second, communities should be seen as dynamic. While there are always calls to return to images of the past, communities do have resilience. This assume that the lenses we use to see communities should not be industrial (community as a cog in the wheel of democracy) but biological – communities as living dynamic ecological systems.

Third, there is choice in the matter. Communities, as suggested in the scenarios, can enhance their agency through collective self-reflection, through visioning their desired futures.

 


[1] Eckersley, R. 2001, Culture, health and well-being, in Eckersley, R., Dixon, J. & Douglas, B. (Eds), The Social Origins of Health and Well-being, pp. 51-70, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. See Clement Bezold, Will heart disease be eliminated in your lifetime? The best of health futures, Futures Research Quarterly (Summer 1995), 38. See Sohail Inayatullah, Scanning for City Futures. Report to the Asia-Pacific cities Summit 2003. See as well. Eliot Hurwitz, “Communities as Early Warning,” Futures Research Quarterly (Summer 1999), 75-93.Hurwitz points out two critical studies. 1. A 1992 study published in the American Journal of Public Health contrasted the two of Roseta, PA with two neighborning towns served by the same community hospital. Study investigated Roseto’s significantly lower incidence of heart attacks despite nearly identical risk factors, including smoking, high-fat diet and diabetes. The one difference was that Roseto was composed of  a very tightly knit Italian immigrant community with many three-generation households in active extended social networks. Other studies as well confirm that socially isolated people had up to five times the risk of premature death from all causes when compared to those who had a strong sense of connection and community.Dean Ornish as well in his book, Love and Survival – The Scientific Bases for the Healing Power of Intimacy (Harper Collins, 1997), cites dozens of studies, including a Swedish study of 131 women which found that availability of deep emotional relationships was associated with less coronary artery blockage independent of age, hypertension, smoking, diabetes, cholesterol, educational level and menopausal status.

See as well, Jennifer Bartlett and Sohail Inayatullah, Healthy Cities Reader. Brisbane City Council, March 2004.

[2] “Housing affordability hits 16 year low,” the couriermail, 24, March 2005, page 3. Housing affordability has plunged to a 16 year low in Queensland. Often this means that communities break down as renter have to move away from their neighbors.

[3] For more on this, see Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah, Macrohistory and Macrohistorians. Wesport, Praeger, 1997. Also see, Phillip Daffara, Macrohistory and the City. Phd thesis, in progress. University of the Sunshine Coast.

[4] For more on spirituality and health, see http://www.deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,375016315,00.html?

Transforming Communication (Book Info, 2002)

Transforming Communication: Technology, Sustainability and Future Generations

Edited by Sohail Inayatullah and Susan Leggett | Praeger Studies on the 21st Century, Vol. No. 39, 2002 | 200 pages.

Library of Congress Catalog Card No.: 2001036702 | ISBN: 0-275-96944-4

Contributing authors: Anthony Judge, Richard Neville, Darren Schmidt, Jérôme Bindé, Tony Stevenson, Sohail Inayatullah, Levi Obijiofor, Rakesh Kapoor, Paul Wildman, Bilyana Blomeley, Ivana Milojevic, Vuokko Jarva, Margaret Grace, June Lennie, Frances Parker, Rahmi Sofiarini, Alan Fricker, Mark Mahoney, Caroline Smith and Geoff Holland.

About the Book

Thus far, the communications revolution has been largely limited to the merely technological feat of converging telecommunications with personal computing. But does it hold a higher promise – to transform communication as a human act of sharing meaning about values, attitudes, and experiences? Or will it allow capitalism to pursue ever-greater economic efficiencies among the wealthy nations of the world, while ignoring the persistent and growing gap between rich and poor?

Will “empowerment” come to mean the creation of an alternative model of development communication or will wiring the world continue to mean sending computers to Africa without providing adequate training, software and servicing? Worse, will informatics create a communication flatland, where positive silence, and other ways of knowing in non-western cultures, and among women, are lost, such that we travel at the speed of information-light … to nowhere?

The contributors argue that to create sustainable futures, new ways must be found to make communication inclusive, participatory, and mindful of future generations. They present powerful transformative scenarios of web futures that they argue can lead to a more communicative future – a “gaia of civilizations”. This new means of communication must also emerge authentically from humanity’s diverse cultures, be more concerned with the quality of information shared, and be transformed from its technocratic bias. This book will be of interest to scholars in a variety of fields concerned with issues of communication, culture, and globalization.

Table of Contents

Introduction

  • Transforming Communication for Future Generations, Sohail Inayatullah

Part I – Future Generations

  • Future Generation through Global Conversation¾In Quest of Collective Wellbeing through Conversation in the Present Moment, Anthony Judge
  • Seizing the Moment for Future Generations, Richard Neville
  • Conversations with the Ghosts of the Future—Some Theoretical Problems and Practical Opportunities, Darren Schmidt
  • The Ethics of Future Generations, Jérôme Bindé

Part II – Communication Futures

  • The Net and Our Social Futures, Tony Stevenson
  • From the Information Era to a Gaia of Civilisations, Sohail Inayatullah
  • The Telephone—Africa’s Future in the Age of Technology, Levi Obijiofor
  • The Techno-brahmins and the Futures of Communication, Rakesh Kapoor
  • Magani Whirlpools: An Indigenous Metaphor and Process to Reconcile the Past for the Future, by Paul Wildman and Bilyana Blomely

Part III – Technology, Women and Power

  • Creating Communication Spaces for Not Yet So Virtual People, by Ivana Milojevic
  • Rural Women’s Futures and Cooperative Solutions, by Vuokko Jarva
  • Voices from Elsewhere: Empowering Electronic Conversations among Women, by Margaret Grace and June Lennie
  • Landless Rural Women Creating Sustainable Futures, by Frances Parker and Rahmi Sofiarini

Part IV – Sustainability and Future Generations

  • The Legacy of Technology, by Alan Fricker
  • Global Food Policy: Like Winning a Game of Poker on the Titanic?, by Mary Mahoney
  • Permaculture: Hope and Empowerment for a Sustainable Future, by Caroline Smith
  • Why Consider Future Generations?—And How to Consider Them More Fully, by Geoff Holland
  • Index

Comments on Transforming Communication

Communication is a tired imperative and by now an old academic discipline. Transforming communication is, therefore, something worth doing. This is an interesting book because whilst it is a critical work it is also optimistic. The optimism resides in its rediscovery of that part of communication often neglected – listening. Listening to voices often neglected in mainstream academia, the book allows spaces for contributors from non-western perspectives, from spiritual perspectives and from the future. The optimism also flows from the action oriented perspective of many of the contributors. Although optimistic the book makes no rash promises… the transforming of the title suggests a process in progress. In my view it is a process moving in the right direction.

Greg Hearn

Associate Professor of Media and Communication

Faculty of Creative Industries, Queensland University of Technology


Insightful, compelling, multi-perspectival, and replete with un-conventional wisdom, this eclectic book, the compilation of a distinguished body of leading trans-disciplinary scholars, may serve as a bifurcation-point, signaling the under-recognized transformative/ transcendent potential of communication, communication technologies and more importantly communicativeness, for the betterment of human interactions, social re-design, and environmental rejuvenation.

David Lindsay Wright, Futures Researcher

The Communication Centre, Queensland University of Technology


Purchase via Amazon

Virtual and Genetic Challenges to Green Politics and Planning (2002)

Is sustainability possible in a world of cloned cats, animals and rights of robots?

By Sohail Inayatullah

Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan; Sunshine Coast University, Sippy Downs.

Based on a keynote speech presented to the Environmental Institute of Australia, Brisbane, August 2, 2002.

Clearly, few of you in the room have a virtual cat or an animat and I doubt if you spend your nights thinking about the rights of robots. I am not here to argue that you should but rather here to consider the futures of environmental management in the context of different futures. Among these futures is one where the nature of nature will dramatically change, wherein cloned cats and animats will become the norm not the wild-edge of weird science.

Without a doubt, traditional notions of the environment are undergoing dramatic changes – from nature to the built environment to a world where the notion of nature and technology is blurring. What this means for the environmental manager is that their workload will increase and become dramatically more complex. This is a deepening, but also an expansion in the sense that an environmental managers will need to consider issues not just of the environmental impact of new urban development but technological issues as well. What this also means is that there will be new entrants into the market, focused on specific issues concerned with the new technologies – the likely impacts of germ line enginneering or, less grand, that of the surveillance mosquito just now being developed, or of the rights of robots.

First some methodological notes on determining the nature of possible change.
There are three relevant methods. First is the s-curve. The goal here is to discern emerging changes (not just trends), to anticipate them before they become dominant.

Second is the futures triangle. That is, along with competing images of the future (artificial-spaceship/gaian/realistic) there are other forces exerting pressure on the future: pushes (technologies, values shifts and globalization, for example) and the weight of history – that which is difficult to change. : power, bureaucracies, politics, the right way of doing things. As my son said, in response to a TV show on the 14 ways to make a baby, “when I grow up, I want to do it the proper way”. Unfortunately, for him and other dot.com children, when the time comes for ‘making’ children,, their kids will be of the double-helix variety, and there will be no ‘proper way’ at all. Nature will have become created by man.

Of course, one can get forecasts wrong. : Bill Gates once said, 64k is enough memory for anyone. And, forecasts can gather dust. For example, the World Trade Center twice hired security expert Charlie Schnabolk to consider if terrorism was a threat to their building. Scenarios were developed – predictable (bomb threats); probable (bombing attempts) and catastrophic (aerial bombing). Later, in 2000, he argued that the greatest threat was from “ “someone flying an airplane into a building”.”

Futures thinking must be living.

But there is another lesson here. And this is that: strategies to counter risk can never be only technical – a better firewall, more security systems, better impact statements – they also must include an understanding of the system that creates risk as well, and the paradigms that uphold those systems.

Now, I do not think your work is that different from that of a futurist. You must consider the implications of current policies, into the immediate, medium term and long term future. You must assess risk, manage risk and most importantly, communicate risk. The last part is the key: since we live in different worlds, we have different perspectives of what futures we desire. And we are no longer a united.

Challenges to the Future

Multiculturalism challenges the traditional view of ‘we’ as one race in one nation under one god.

Feminism challenges the gendered nature of the ‘we’ – we as male.
Postmodernism challenges the view that the ‘we’ always was and always will be.

Virtualism challenges the ‘we’ seeing communities not physical, but as intended and virtual – the cyber friends.

Genetics challenges the we at an even deeper level – we can now become who we want to be. As we learn, in Blade Runner when the genetic engineer is asked what he does and he replies: I make friends”  he means, ‘manufacture’ friends. Thus, the stable evolutionary nature of us is being contested.

Of course, perhaps ‘I shop therefore I am’, or god, nation and family will live on forever. And perhaps not.

Cats are being cloned, and animals created. Artificial agents are swiftly becoming or will become part of our lives, creating routines that mimic our tastes, thus reducing the burden of choice.

With eco-bots and health-bots we will have immediate information about our desires. We will be able to make better choices knowing the full value chain – who made what profit, where something was made and its ecological footprint.
Health bots will alert us to the dangers of foods – too much cholesteral, too much fat. They will also be tailored, learning from us, focused on our changing needs. Of course, we may prefer to turn off the health-bot, but will the state let us?.  Won’t that be the way to reduce health costs – the big brother that is always ‘on’, ensuring we stay healthy and reduce public expenditures. And, there is always the surveillance mosquito in case you try and take off the bot.

While we may resist, dot.com and double helix kids will jump at this, and even the current generation prefers to change capitalism buy buying their desired futures. Witness drops in  Shell and Monsonato stocks.

But, over time, these artificial intelligence bots will gain rights, not because of anything inherent in their essence, but because they will part of the air we breathe. Indeed, with the advancement of functional foods and nutraceuticals (smart foods), they will be part of the food we eat.

It is certainly a new world we are entering. One may call this ‘the future of artificial societies’, but it is one in which we will no longer distinguish the artificial from the natural. It is a world of nano-technologies, super cities, world governance – the main questions will be not only “Do androids dream of electronic sheep?”, but “What do humans do?”.

Clearly the impact on the environment will be enormous. However, the nature of the environment is likely to change, manifested in a variety of ways. : far more fluid and flexible. In much of the traditional environment, lost species are likely to be recreated either genetically or virtually. The zoo will change dramatically, once again becoming central to the city. Indeed, one can easily imagine three Olympics – a drug free one, a doped up one, and then the gene enhanced one.

The impact of these new environments on how we think and, how we know the world will become major issues. As we move to germ line intervention and create novel new forms of life, again, the issue of how new life forms impact traditional notions of the environment will be of concern. However, with the environment in flux, the issue of preserving or protecting our past will be far less of an issue. The issue will be ensuring that the new environments we are creating are managed within agreed upon terms.

The terms for this future world are yet to be created. Certainly, doing no harm is likely to be one of them, that is, Asimov’s laws of robotics – not harming humans. But over time, humans will be just one of the many thinking beings on this planet.

Gaia

The other competing future is that of sustainability – a commitment to future generations; policies that are soft on the earth (taking into account our ecological footprints). This is, essentially the triple bottom line approach but writ large on the global level. Education in this future would not be about the environment but for the environment. Indeed, over time it will be in interaction with the environment – Gaia becoming alive.

In one survey of preferred city futures, only 1% preferred the city as suburb image. Sustainable development and the living city (sensing us and mothering us) was the future preferred by the others.

For environmental managers, this means not only an increased amount of work, but enhanced work routines and expanded responsibilities. Environmental management would move to include issues of social justice-multicultural-gender balance and not just development.  The environmental manager would become the triple bottom line manager.

However, with sustainable development becoming THE paradigm, environmental management may disappear as a field (becoming so successful that it becomes routinized) or become flush with entrants that are low on expertise and experience.

There are two factors. One, : problems with capitalism. That is, it capitalism can grow wealth but distribution and impact on the earth remain quandaries. The second is a values shift, the rise of the cultural creatives – a new demographic group focused on gender partnership, spiritual values, ecological pluralism and planetary governance and consciousness.

Either the system will transform, moving away from capitalism,  in a dramatic transition, or, most likely, it will move softly away – using the law, procedures and institutions to regulate a softer society.

Business as Usual

The third possibility is Business as Usual but with enhanced technology and a bit of sustainability and perhaps some international agreements in the form of treaties (carbon trading etc.) thrown in.

This is the Bush-Howard worldview. Images come and go, but at the end of the day it is power and money, narrow self-interests, and conservative family values that will rule the day. Nature is fine … but cars are better.

Sustainability is used by businesses as a competitive advantage and nations claim they are pro-environment but developers still win the day.

Education in this future is about the environment with no recognition of Gaia. Gaian alternatives stay on the margin. New technologies are merely used to increase efficiency and not to increase participation of stakeholders through, for example, cyber-democracy. The Business as Usual scenario is the one where markets come first, with environmental problems worsening and no one responsible to fix them.

Conclusion

Thus, there are three scenarios:

1. Continued growth (business as usual) but add a bit of sustainability – environmental management but no real gain in consciousness. No real change in the nature of us.

2. A dramatic change in humanity as we, in one generation, redo a few millions years of evolution. The eighth day of evolution creating new “‘we”’s.

3. A third response is the Gaian – deep foundational spritual change for sustainable development at a planetary level, creating a united planet moving inward and outward, softly.

And of course, there is a fourth response – collapse. Asteroids, volcanos, sea-level rise …

SCENARIOS

Continued Growth – business as usual and more

Artifical Transformation – the eighth day of evolution

Gaian transformation – sustainability for all

Collapse – end time

Final Questions

Which future is likely to come about?. At this stage it is difficult to tell. The weight of history suggests Business as Usual. However, this assumes a linear pattern of history. Those who lost millions in the dot. com collapse know that reality is also cyclical. What goes up, goes down. The more successful you are, the less you can see the warning signs. Success is the final step on the ladder of failure. As Cisco learned, having the best real time forecasting system means nothing if the assumptions in that system are wrong. So business as usual may continue, but as Jack Welch of GE suggests, you better face the brutal facts.

Among those brutal facts: , 3 individuals have the same total wealth as the 48 least developed nations. ; 256 have the same total wealth as half the world’s population. The amount American and Europe spend on perfume and pet food could take care of the basic needs of the entire planet.

Dot.com wizards did not face the facts. Will the Business as Usual gang. ¿ If not, perhaps they will achieve the same end as the Chinese ‘gang of four’.
Technological innovation suggests that the Artificial society is likely to dominate. : a global-tech world. But to do so, issues not only of the fundamentalism throughout the world but the proper traditional ways of operating will remains. We are perhaps not ready to push into outer space, changing our genetic nature many times in one life, designing children to up their IQ, –the real smart state.

What is likely is that with this resistance, a mix of cyber-gene-green futures may eventuate.

As much as the Gaian image of sustainable development and the living earth moves the hearts of many, the feet stay put. As one department of transport suggested, everyone wants green and public transport, but no one wants to travel on it.

And, if the collapse does come – asteroids and ice ages,  – we will need the technology to  leave this planet – I know we can leave spiritually but some of us still like our bodies.

Thus, we really don’t know which future will arrive. We do know the future that does come about will be a result of a mix of the pull, push and weight. We also know that civilizations prosper when they have a positive vision of the future and the belief that it can be achieved. But for the vision to actually move us forward, it will need to be inclusive, gender- friendly, soft on the earth, concerned for basic needs, but innovative as well – above all, it will need to be planetary.

All of us.

Corporate, Technological, Epistemic and Democratic Challenges: Mapping the Political Economy of University Futures (2001)

Sohail Inayatullah

Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan and Sunshine Coast University, Australia. www.metafuture.org

 

Trends of changing student expectations (access to global systems of knowledge, including transparency and international accreditation), the internet (virtual education, moving from campus center to person centered, and far more customized, individually tailored), global corporatization (reduced state funding for universities and the development of a market culture on campuses) and transformed content (multicultural education) will dramatically influence all the world’s universities. Indeed the potential for dramatic transformation is so great that in the next fifteen to twenty years, it is far from certain that universities as currently constituted – campus based, nation-funded, and local student-oriented – will exist. Certainly, the current model for the university will cease to be the hegemonic one.

Of course, rich universities like Harvard will be able to continue without too much challenge, but the state-supported University will be challenged. Asian nations where education is defined by the dictates of the Ministry of Education too will face the efficiency oriented, privatization forces of globalization. Their command and control structure will be challenged by globalization – market pressures, technological innovations and the brain gain (that is, from graduates returning home from the USA and England).

Corporatization

Corporatization will create far more competition than traditional universities have been prepared for. Corporatization is the entrance of huge multinational players into the educational market. Total spending in education in America was 800$ billion US in 2001, estimates The Economist. By 2003, the private capital invested in the US will total 10 billion dollars, just for the virtual higher education market and 11 billion dollars in the private sector serving the corporate market. Indeed, John Chambers, CEO of Cisco systems, calls “online education the killer application of the internet.” Jeanne Meister, president of Corporate University Xchange(CUX), expects that by 2010 there will be more corporate universities in the United States than traditional ones. They are and will continue to challenge the academy’s monopolization of accreditation.. Globalization thus provides the structure and the Net the vehicle. Pearson, for example, a large British media group that owns 50% of the Economist, is betting its future on it, hoping that it can provide the online material for the annual two million people that will be seeking a degree online. Motorola, Accenture, Cisco and McDonolds as well as News Corporation all seek to become respectable universities. Cisco Networking Academies have trained 135000 students in 94 countries. Motorola has a new division called Motorola Learning and Certification which resells educational programs. Accencture has purchased a former college campus and spends 6.5% of its revenues on educating employees.

Of course, much of this is not new. Corporation education has always been big. What is new is that corporate universities seek to enter markets traditionally monopolized by academics. And, given pressures on corporation to be more inclusive of minorities, to be more multicultural and more triple bottom line oriented (prosperity, planet plus people), it may be that corporate universities embrace diversity at a quicker pace than traditional universities.

Clearly when billion dollar corporations want to enter the market – a rapidly growing market, especially with the aging of the population and with national barriers to education slowly breaking down – the challenge to the traditional university becomes dramatic, indeed, mission, if not life threatening. With an expanding market of hundreds of millions of learners, money will follow future money. Money will transform education, at the very least, dominate the discourse who and what values are most important – is the student, academic, administrator, community or are corporate interests first, remains the answered question.

For community education and for communities – traditionally tied to a local regional university – seeking economic vitality, their future will become far more daunting. As universities globalize, corporatize and virtualize – moving services to low cost areas – place will more and more disappear.

This is a far cry from the classical European, Islamic on Indic university, concerned mostly with moral education. Moreover, as in Bologna in the 10th century, the university was student-run. If the professor was late, he was fined by students, some teachers were even forced to leave the city. Paradoxically, corporatization with its customer-first ideology may return us to a student-run university. The Academy beware!

University Dimensions

The point is that at one time the university was student-run, we know that it is no longer so, if anything it is administration-run. Who will run it in the future? To understand this we need to explore the different dimensions of the University. The University is partly about social control, and it is also about baby-sitting. What to do with teenagers? How to keep them out of trouble? The other dimension is national development. We have schools to convince everyone that we’re a good people, that we have the best system. Each nation engages in social control, it uses education to give legitimacy to the nation-state, to make good patriots. We also have university for job training, the entire practical education moment. – the small community colleges, where the goal is to go to a small college to get practical education so that one can get a real job after graduation.

Thus the classical view of knowledge for the cultivation of the mind has been supplanted by the industrial model. And, as you might expect the big growth in jobs in the university are in the area of the bureaucracy. Whereas tenure is being eliminated in favor of part-time employment throughout the world, the university administration continues to expand.

Of course, the nature of administration is as well changing: it is being forced to become far more student-friendly, as with government subsidies of education being reduced, it is students who pay academic and administration wages. Fees provide the backbone of the private university. Customer satisfaction and student retention become far more important as compared to the traditional state subsidized university. As Flora Chang of Tamkang University said: “Student satisfaction through customer surveys, student retention data, and alumni loyalty are crucial factors” for our future success.

One key question will be: what can be automated? Who can be replaced by the internet and web education? Perhaps both – faculty and the administration – will be in trouble. This is the debate: too many administrators or too many professors. A third perspective is – a market perspective – not enough students and thus each university believes it must globalize and seduce students from all over the world attend their physical campus as well as take courses from their virtual campuses. However, generally, most universities still think of students in narrow ways. As young people or as students from one’s own nation. But with the ageing population and with the internet (with bandwith likely to keep on increasing), one’s paying students can be from anywhere.

The other classical view of university was academic-led – a shared culture focused on scholarship and science – but that too is been challenged. And of course the .com model even challenges what the university should look like. Should it be physical-based or virtual? Should it be based on a model of hierarchy or a networked model?

But for academics, the biggest challenge is the university as a corporation. And we know in the U.S. corporate funding for the University has increased from 850 million in 1985 to 4.25 billion US$ less than a decade later. In the last twenty years it has increased by eight times. It is likely that East Asian nations will follow this pattern. So far it is the state that has exclusively engaged in education. However, globalization is opening up this space in East Asia with foreign and local education suppliers seeking to reduce the controls of the Ministry of Education.

Thus the big money is coming from corporations and funding from the government is gradually being reduced years as per the dictates of the globalization model. While most presidents of the university would prefer a different model, they have no choice. More and more education is becoming an economic good. Humanity departments are being downsized throughout the world since the contribution to jobs is not direct. Unfortunately, they forget the indirect contribution, that of creating smart, multi-lingual, multi-cultural individuals – what some call social capital. However, in East Asia language remains central, necessary to understand other cultures, train civil servants and open up new markets.

However, there are some quite insidious affects of corporatization. First, information is no longer open, as corporations use it for profit making. A survey of 210 life-science companies in 1994 found that 58% of those sponsoring academic research required delays of more than six months before publication. The content of science itself changes as the funding increased. In a 1996 study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, 98% of papers based on industry-sponsored research reflected favorably on the drugs being examined as compared with 79% based on research not funded by the industry. Now what accounts for that 19% variation? And how will the public then see the university? As with the medical system, once patients believe that doctors are beholden to certain drug companies or web sites they are less likely to trust them. This holds true for university research as well.

But there is another side to globalization. In 1989 in the U.S. there were 364 new start up companies on the basis of a license to an academic invention. University technology transfer activities generated 34 billion dollars in U.S.$ supporting 280,000 jobs.

So the university is becoming more global and also producing incredible wealth, so there are two sides to globalization.

Virtualization: the .com revolution

The .com revolution as well has mixed reviews. For example, at one Australian university, over night, the prefix for academic emails was changed from edu.au to .com. The academics asked why did this occur? While some were upset that this happened without consultation, others were upset that the moral basis of the university was being transformed, they were deeply troubled by corporatization. The administration responded that we can no longer compete globally as an @.edu.au institution and instead had to become a .com. Eventually the university went back to edu.au as the pressure from academics was too great. With the .com world having lost its shine, perhaps it was a wise move.

But the university administration could see the writing on the wall. The traditional model of the classical liberal arts national subsidized university was ending – a new model was emerging. The mistake they made was not engaging in dialogue with others, not living the .com network model but instead using the power-based secrecy model of the industrial era.

The other problem that administrations have not yet begun to see is that much of middle-management can and is likely to be eliminated. The emerging knowledge economy – via the net and future artificial intelligence systems – will lead to dis-intermediation. With a good information system, you don’t need all the secretaries, the clerks, as well as those higher up the ladder. Of course, the politics of job firing, retraining, is a different matter and central to how the future university and overall world economy is to be organized in the future.

In Taiwan, surveys at Tamkang University, Taiwan, found that Professors and Administrators were enthusiastic about virtualization. Professors were enthusiastic as this would free their time spent at the university, increase interaction with colleagues and students, and administrators saw the cost savings. Deans saw it eroding their power base – control of the faculty – and students saw it taking away from what they valued most – face to face (not face to blur, ie huge classes) education. They desired a degree of broadband but not virtual classes.

Summarizing these two sections, it appears that the nature of what constitutes education is changing from being academy focused to being customer student focused; from being campus focused to being virtual; from being state subsidized to being corporate funding. Overtime – and certainly these processes are uneven with fits and starts, the university may becomes a process, it is no longer simply a place, with fixed 9-5 work patterns, with fixed schedules for classes. It can become a network.

Multicultural Realities

But there is a deeper possibility of change – this the epistemic bases of knowledge, of content, of what is taught, how it is taught and who teaches – essentially this is the multicultural turn.

In its tokenistic form, multiculturalism became a government fad of the last decade in postindustrial societies, its most controversial feature being its excesses of ‘political correctness’. In its deeper nature it is

about inclusiveness. At heart, argues Ashis Nandy, multiculturalism is about dissent, about contesting the categories of knowledge that modernity has given us. And, even with multiculturalism often criticized and coopted, used strategically to ensure representation, still the future is likely to be more and more about an ethics of inclusion instead of a politics of exclusion. Of course, the struggle will be long and hard, and more often than not, instead of new curriculum, there will be just more special departments of the Other.

Deep multiculturalism challenges what is taught, how it is taught, the knowledge categories used to teach, and the way departments enclose the other. It provides a worldview in which to create new models of learning and new universities which better capture the many ways students know the world. As futures researcher Paul Wildman reminds us, this can extend to concepts such as multiversities and even ‘subversities’ which encourage participation from scholars and students who dwell at the periphery of knowledge. In this form, multiculturalism goes beyond merely inclusion of ‘other’ ethnicities, to a questioning of the whole paradigm of western scientific rationalism on which centuries of university traditions are founded. In this perspective, multiple ways of knowing including spiritual or consciousness models of self, in which as James Grant for the Mahrishi University of Mangement and Marcus Bussey of The Ananda Marga Gurukul University assert, the main driver in transforming universities of the next century is an explosion of inner enlightenment, a new age of higher consciousness about to begin. Thus, there are three levels to this. The first is inclusion of others, in terms of who gains admission into universities, who teaches, ensuring that those on the periphery gain entrance. A second level is less concerned with quantifiable representation and more with inclusion of others’ ways of knowing – expanding the canon of what constitutes knowledge as well how knowledge is realized. A third level is what Indian philosopher P.R. Sarkar calls, the liberation of the intellect, education that transcends the limitation of geographical sentiments, religious sentiments, race-based sentiments and even humanism, moving toward a planetary spiritual consciousness and touching upon the spiritual.

In terms of curriculum and disciplinary boundaries, multiculturalism challenges the notion that there is only one science. Western science instead of being seen as a quest for truth is considered to be one way of knowing among many. There are can alternative sciences – feminist science, Tantric science, Islamic science. They are still engaged in empirical and verifiable research but the questions asked, the ethical framework are different. Generally, the type of research is more concerned with indigenous problems, with local concerns. It is less violent to nature, toward “subjects” and more concerned with integrated self and other, mind and body, intellect and intuition.

What’s happening throughout universities is that scholars are contesting the content of scholarship – how, for example, history is taught, asking are all civilizations included, or are only Western thinkers, Western notions of discovery and culture honored.

Many years ago, I give a lecture at an Australian university and questioned how they were teaching their main course on World History. I noted that the grand thinkers from Islamic, Sinic and Indian civilizations were not included. Why? And when other civilizations were briefly mentioned they were written as threats to the West or as barbarians. Women and nature as well were absent. I argued that this creates a view of history that is not only inaccurate but violent since other cultures see themselves through these hegemonic eyes. Instead of creating an inclusive history of humanity’s struggle, a history of one particular civilization becomes valorized.

While it is unlikely that the professor who teaches this course will change, students have changed. They want multiple global perspectives. They understand that they need to learn about other cultures from those cultures’ perspectives. Globalization in the form of changing immigration patterns is moving OECD nations by necessity toward better representation, irrespective of attacks of multicultural as “political correctness.”

The multicultural challenge to the traditional university can be defined as below:

  • Challenge to western canon
  • Challenge to intellect as the only way of knowing
  • Challenge to divorce of academic from body and spirit – challenge to egghead vision of self/other
  • Challenge to modernist classification of knowledge
  • Challenge to traditional science (feminist, islamic, postnormal, indian)
  • Challenges pedagogy, curriculum as well as evaluation – ie process or culture, content and evaluation or what is counted.

We are already seeing the rise of multiculturalism in OECD nations. For example, at one conference in Boston, when participants were asked to list the five American authors they believed most necessary for a quality education, they placed Toni Morrison second and Maya Angelou third. Others on the top ten, included Maclom X and James Baldwin. The first was Mark Twain.

The multicultural perspective challenges as well the foundation of knowledge. Multicultural education is about creating structures and processes that allow for the expression of the many civilizations, communities and individuals that we are.

Multicultural education contests the value neutrality of current institutions such as the library. For example, merely including texts from other civilizations does not constitute a multi-cultural library. Ensuring that the contents of texts are not ethnocentric is an important step but this does not begin to problematize the definitional categories used in conventional libraries. For example, in the multicultural perspective, we need to ask what a library would look like if it used the knowledge paradigms of other civilizations? How would knowledge be rearranged? What would the library floors look like? In Hawaiian culture, for example, there might be floors for the Gods, for the aina and genealogy. In Tantra, empirical science would exist alongside intuitional science. Floor and shelve space would privilege the superconscious and unconscious layers of reality instead of only focusing on empirical levels of the real. In Islam, since knowledge is considered tawhidic (based on the unity of God), philosophy, science and religion would no longer occupy the discrete spaces they currently do. Of course, the spatiality of “floors” must also be deconstructed. Information systems from other civilizations might not privilege book-knowledge, focusing instead on story-telling and dreamtime as well as wisdom received from elders/ancestors (as in Australian Aboriginal) and perhaps even “angels” (either metaphorically or ontologically).

A multi-cultural library might look like the world wide web but include other alternative ways of knowing and being. Most certainly knowledge from different civilizations in this alternative vision of the “library” would not be relegated to a minor site or constituted as an exotic field of inquiry such as Asian, Ethnic or Feminist studies, as are the practices of current libraries. The homogeneity of the library as an organizing information system must be reconstructed if we are to begin to develop the conceptual framework of multi-cultural education.

Thus, not only is the structure of the University changing, that is, virtualization, but the content as well is being transformed. Now what does this mean, in terms of policy prescriptions? If you want your university to have a bright future, you have to understand the changing nature of the student – changing demographics (older, more females) and changing expectations (more multicultural). Generally, while getting a job will always be important, the equation has changed to planet, prosperity and people, that is, a strong concern for the environment, for wealth creation and for engaging with others and other cultures.

For academics, the multicultural is as well about the changing role of the Professor. For example, the university becomes not just a site of gaining knowledge but a place for experiencing other dimensions of reality, at the very least, for balancing body, mind and spirit.

Democratizing the Feudal Mind

The role of academics is changing as well. This is the generally the hardest notion for senior professors to swallow – the democratization of the university. We want democracy for government, but we don’t want democracy for universities .

The university remains feudal. For example, while the economy in East Asian nations has transformed, that is, feudalism was destroyed, the feudal mind has not changed. This is the grand question for East Asian nations. How to create a culture of innovation, how to go to the next level of economic development, instead of copying, creating. To create an innovative learning organization, you can’t have a culture of fear. This means real democracy in details like what type of seating is in the room. As well as: can students challenge professors? Can junior professors challenge senior academics without fear of reprisal. Innovation comes from questioning.

In British systems, the university structure is as well profoundly feudal. A strong distinction is made between the professor and the lecturer. Indeed, the professor is high on top the pyramid with others way below (and the president of the university residing on the mountain top).

Thus can we democratize the university? Of course, it is difficult to do this as few of us like being challenged. We all have our view of reality, our favorite models, and we believe we are correct. But creating a learning organization means challenging basic structures and finding new ways to create knowledge and wealth. It doesn’t mean always going to the President for solutions. Transforming the feudal university is very difficult.

However, I am not discounting the importance of respect for leadership, for discipline and hardwork – challenging authority doesn’t mean being rude, it means contesting the foundations for how we go about creating a good society.

Along with a learning organization, however, is the notion of a healing organization. Merely, focused on learning forgets that much of our life is spent focused on relationship – with our inner self, with colleagues, with nature and cosmos and with the university itself. As universities change their nature – reducing tenured positions, increasing teaching loads – health becomes an issue. Sick institutions can emerge quite quickly, unless there is a focus on creating ways to learn and heal, to develop sustainable and transformative relationships.

However, democratization is not facile given the trends mentioned above. For the Asian academic, for example, the choices shrink daily. Her or she can choose between the following alternatives – the 4 big M’s. The first M is the Ministry of Education. Choosing this career means grant research focused only on the Ministry’s needs, and it means being dependent on government. When states go wrong, or punish dissent as in Malaysia or Indonesia, or Pakistan and India, losing one’s job and prison are real possibilities. Text are written with the other nation as the enemy, as in India and Pakistan. The professor must teach these texts or lose his or her position. One pakistani academic, for example, was jailed for giving a lecture on alternative futures that contested the notion of Pakistan as an eternal state.

The second choice is the Mullah, or the cleric. This is money from not the corporation or State but the competing worldview to the modern, the Islamic. In real terms this has meant soft and strong version of Wahibism – the creation of International Islamic Universities with Saudi funds as in Kaula Lumpur, Malaysia. Freedom of inquiry is problematic as well here, as boundaries of inquiry are legislated by the University’s charter. Instead of spiritual pluralism what results is uncritical traditionalism.

If we combine the first two choices we get a combination of religious hierarchy with feudal and national hierarchy, creating very little space for the academic. In the Indian context , this would be the brahmin who goes to Oxford to study economics, joins the world bank and returns to Delhi to work with the Ministry of Economic Development.

The third M is “Microsoft”, focusing one’s career on developing content for the new emerging universities. This is the quickly developing area of Net eudcation. The cost for the academic here too are high – it is contract work, often a loss of face to face, of collegial relationships, of the academy as a moral mission. Volume and speed are likely to become more important than integrity and the inner life.

The final M is McDonaldization. This is the move to the convenience 7/11 university, the Australian model. Large student volume, in and out, with academics having heavy teaching loads. A professorship essentially becomes focused on gaining grants.

Leaving these M’s is a possibility, dependent on the nature of the state one lives under. However, the traditional imagination of the university is not a possibility. The route in the last 50 years was the escape to the Western university, but with these universities too in trouble, this route seems blocked.

So far I have touched upon four trends: corporatization, virtualization, multiculturalism and democratization as well as basic missions of the University. Given these trends and missions, what are the possibilities for the university, what are the possible structures?

Possible Structures

I see three possible structures. One is being a University leader, joining the world’s elite, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford. The focus then is: “We are only going to get the best bright students around the world.” But the challenge to this model comes from the .com world. The big money is unlikely to be in teaching but in content design. The issue is though once you put your name on cdroms, on internet content, does that diminish your brand name, its exclusivity. If everyone can enter an elite university’s web course, is the university still elite? This is the issue of franchising. Should you focus on a small customer base that can pay a lot or become like the University of Pheonix (the largest university in the USA, offers no tenure, uses short courses as well as flexible delivery. A kind of just-in-time education).

For large universities, there are two clear choices – elite university or low cost producers with hundreds of millions of new students all over the world as potential purchasers. A third choice for the smaller university is the niche university –focused in a particular area of excellence. Not trying to be too much, just focused on one particular area (regional concerns, for example).

The question for the traditional university is new competition from global players: multi-media corporations, elite universities that are expanding and branding as well as low-cost producers.

These issues are already of concern in the USA, and soon they will be crucial here as well. It is harder to see this in East Asian nations (and those colonized by England) since the State plays such a strong role in education. But eventually in five or ten years the competition will come here as well. All universities will find themselves in a global market.

However, a university can find ways to be all these structures, developing different campuses. One could be focused on life-long learning, short courses. A second could be research focused, linked to government and industry. A third could be elite based, having student friendly teacher-student faculty ratios. The Net could link them all, or there could be a fourth virtual campus, a net university. In these worlds, what stands out is the loss of community education, of the university focused on place. However, as universities homogenize through globalization, communities may find niches.

Scenarios for the Future

The next question is what are the probable scenarios for the future of the university. We use scenarios to reduce uncertainty. Scenarios are also important in that they also help us rethink the present – they give us a distance from today.

Earlier futures studies focused entirely on single point prediction. The field then moved to scenario planning, to alternative futures. But now, it is moving to capacity development, with creating learning organizations where foresight is a continuous part of what the organization does.

Studies that examine corporations that have survived over a hundred years found that the one key factor in explaining longevity was the capacity to tolerate ideas from the margin. Even for corporate universities this is crucial – the capacity to tolerate dissent, indeed, to nurture different ideas, new ideas from the edge.

In terms of scenarios, the first one is the Star Alliance model. I use this term from the airlines – where the passenger is always taken care of – there is easy movement from one airline to the other. Everything is smooth. For the university, this would mean easy movement of student credits, faculty and programs. A student could take one semester at Stanford, and a second semester in Tamkang, and a third semester at Singapore National University. Professors could also change every semester. So it means a similar web of movement. Star alliance works because customers are happy. The airlines are happy because they get brand loyalty. The student might say “I know if I join this university, my credits are transferable. I could access the best professor, I could access the best knowledge in the world.

The weakness in this scenario is the proportioning of funds as well as the costs of movement to the local community, to community building, to place itself.

The second scenario is what I call, Virtual Touch. This vision of the future of the university combines the best of face-to-face pedagogy (human warmth, mentoring) with virtual pedagogy (instant, anywhere in the world, at your own time and speed). If it is just technology then you get bored students, staring at a distant professor. But if it is just face-to-face you don’t get enough information. The universities who can combine both will do very well.   Ultimately that will mean wearable wireless computers. We already know that in Japan they use the wireless phone to dial up a website and find the out the latest movie, or weather or stock quote.

In 10 years, it is going to be the wearable computer, so we’re going to have a computer with us all the time. I can find out everything, I can find out the minerals in water for example, testing to see if it is clean or not. And that technology is almost developed now. I can find out where was my microphone was made. Was it made in China, in Taiwan, in the U.K. I just dial up and I can get product information. And this information will be linked to my values, what type of world I want to see. Thus, I’ll purchase products that are environmentally friendly, where the corporation treats women well. And students will see university courses in the same way: is it well taught, what is the professor like, how much democracy is in the class, what are the values of the University?

The third scenario is: A university without all walls. It’s means the entire world becomes a university . As Majid Tehranian writes: “If all goes well, the entire human society will become a university without walls and national boundaries.” We don’t need specific universities anymore since the university is everywhere, a true knowledge economy wherein humans constantly learn and use their knowledge to create processes that create a better fairer, richer, happier world.

The Future of the Profession

Let me now return to the future of the academic. What is the role of the academic in this dramatically changing world? The first possibility is the traditional professor – this is the agent of authority, great in one field but knowing very little about other fields. They may know Physics but not complexity theory. They are useful in that they are brilliant in one area but not so useful since they have a hard time adapting to change.

The second role is the professor as web content designer. While the current age-cohort is unlikely to engage in these activities, younger people will – what has been called digital natives. For example, my children – 8 and 6 – clearly see their future in the design of new digital technologies. Other young people as well see knowledge as quite different than we do. They see knowledge as quick, as interactive, as multi-disciplinary and as always changing. They want to be web designers and information designers. So the old role of academics was to write books, the new role is that of creating new types of interactive content. And the content will likely be far more global, multicultural than we have so far seen. It appears to be an entirely different world being created.

That also means, if you are the web designer, your student becomes key. This means using action learning methods. Action learning means that the content of the course is developed with the student. While the professor may have certain authoritative knowledge, his or her role is more of a mentor, the knowledge navigator to help the student develop his or her potential within his or her categories of what is important.

 

This will be good news for academics who retain their positions. Most of the professors I speak with would prefer less teaching – information passing out – and more communication. The mentoring role is far more rewarding, personal. The old school was the long lecture. The new way of thinking is just tell the student to go the web and find out. Afterwards there can be a discussion. The Professor then has to learn how to listen to students’ needs and not just to lecture to them.

What is unique about our era is that we now have the technology to do this. Do we have the political will, the wisdom?

Community and the University

What do these trends mean for the University’s relationship with community? Clearly it is under threat. It is global corporatization or spaceless time that is far more important than local and immediate time. Community, however, can be an antidote to many of the threats. It could unite academics, falling back on each other to question the future of the university. On a more instrumental note, regional universities, or universities specifically designed and developed for a locale are a niche that is likely to become more, not less, important as the trends of globalization, virtualization, multiculturalism and democratization continue. Certainly, democracy needs the notion of community and multiculturalism is essentially about more and more community, higher and higher levels of inclusion.

There are four possibilities for Community Spaces

  1. Alliance with other communities – like minded learning communities. This is a novel challenge, and means moving outside the national arena as defining and searching for other communities in similar situations. Sister cities is a dimension of this, but far more important are real contact not photo opportunities.
  2. Alliance with the corporate world – attract businesses to survive.
  3. Communities aligning with social movements, that is creating moral space. Prosperity is an issue here, however, a strong local community can ensure that basic needs are met, even if globalized wealth does not raise everyone’s wealth (at least local strength will ensure that globalization does not reduce local wealth)
  4. The fourth possibility is that communities will themselves transform., There only hope is create Global-local spaces since academics are now becoming virtual and global. Only a program that has local place dimensions with global mobility dimensions can prosper.

Dissenting Futures

Let me conclude this essay with the issue of dissent. What makes the role of the academic unique is that he or she can challenge authority. When the system becomes too capitalistic, this can be questioned. If it is too religious, this too can be countered. All the excesses of the system can be challenged. And who can do this? Those who work for the government can’t since they fear losing their jobs. Those belonging in the church, temple or mosque can’t since they are ideologically bound. And this is the problem with globalization, by making efficiency the only criteria, moral space is lost. As academics we should never, I believe, lose sight of our responsibility to create new futures, to inspire students, to ask what-if questions, to think the unthinkable, to go outside current parameters of knowledge. This is our responsibility to current and future generations.

 

Selected References

Eyal Press and Jennifer Washburn, The Kept University in The Atlantic Monthly (March 2000), 39-54.

Glazer, Nathan. We are all Multiculturalists Now. Harvard, Harvard University Press, 1997.

Inayatullah, Sohail and Jennifer Gidley, eds. The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives on the Futures of the University. Westport, Ct., Bergin and Garvey, 2000.

Inayatullah, S. “The Multicultural Challenge to the Future of Knowledge.” Periodica Islamica, 1996, 6(1), 35–40.

Staff, “Online Education: Lessons of a virtual timetable,” The Economist (February 17, 2001), 71-75.

Tehranian, M. “The End of the University.” Information Society, 1996, 12(4), 444–446.

Wildman, P. “From the Monophonic University to Polyphonic Multiversities.” Futures, 1998, 30(7), 625–635.

Wiseman, L. “The University President: Academic Leadership in an Era of Fund Raising and Legislative Affairs.” In R. Sims and S. Sims (eds.), Managing Institutions of Higher Education into the Twenty-First Century. Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1991.

Trends Transforming the Futures of the University (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

This article is based on speeches presented to the Professoriate at Tamkang University, Taiwan and at the 4TH Pacific Rim First Year in Higher Education Conference, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia, 6 July 2000

 

Trends of changing student expectations (access to global systems of knowledge, including transparency and international accreditation), the internet (virtual education, moving from campus center to person centered, and far more customized, individually tailored), global corporatization (reduced state funding for universities and the development of a market culture on campuses) and transformed content (multicultural education) will dramatically influence all the world’s universities. In the next ten years there will be windows of opportunities to transform and be ahead of the curve. However, after that the window will close and there will be clear winners and losers. Indeed the potential for dramatic transformation is so great that in 10 years, it is far from certain that universities as currently constituted – campus based, nation-funded, and local student-oriented – will exist.

Corporatization

Corporatization will create far more competition than traditional universities have been prepared for. Corporatization is the entrance of huge multinational players into the educational market. All understand that education is the big growth area. Total spending in education in America was 800$ billion US, estimates The Economist. By 2003, the private capital invested in the US will total 10 billion dollars, just for the virtual higher education market and 11 billion dollars in the private sector serving the corporate market. Indeed, John Chambers, CEO of Cisco systems, calls “online education the killer application of the internet.” Jeanne Meister, president of Corporate University Xchange(CUX), expects that by 2010 there will be more corporate universities in the United States than traditional ones. They are and will continue to challenge the academy’s monopolization of accreditation. These corporations have a huge capitalization base and with globalization they have the legitimacy to cross national boundaries and with the internet the vehicle to do so. Pearson, for example, a large British media group that owns 50% of the Economist, is betting its future on it, hoping that it can provide the online material for the annual two million people that will be seeking a degree online.

The money is in education. Generally as academics we are not used to this type of language. For us, it has been about scholarship, the pursuit of truth, about science. I know at one meeting, when a colleague asked about the level of scholarship in one program, the Dean said they had no money for scholarships. He had already forgotten what the university was about as he was always under so much financial pressure.

Now if someone down to the street, some vendor who sells bread wants to take over the university, there is no threat. But when billion dollar corporations want to enter the market – a rapidly growing market, especially with the aging of the population and with national barriers to education slowly breaking down – the challenge to the traditional university becomes dramatic. With an expanding market of hundreds of millions of learners, money will follow future money. Money will transform education.

This corporatization of the university – Academic Capitalism – differs quite dramatically from the classical university, which was concerned about moral education. Moreover, as in Bologna in the 10th century, it was student-run. If the professor was late, he was fined by students, some teachers were even forced to leave the city.

University Dimensions

The point is that at one time the university was student-run, we know that it is no longer so, if anything it is administration-run. Who will run it in the future? To understand this we need to explore the different dimensions of the University. The University is partly about social control, and it is also about baby-sitting. What to do with teenagers? How to keep them out of trouble? The other dimension is national development. We have schools to convince everyone that we’re a good people, that we have the best system. Each nation engages in social control, it uses education to give legitimacy to the nation-state, to make good patriots. We also have university for job training, the entire practical education moment. – the small community colleges, where the goal is to go to a small college to get practical education so that one can get a real job after graduation.

Thus the classical (Confucian and Greek) view of knowledge for the cultivation of the mind has been supplanted by the industrial model. And, as you might expect the big growth in jobs in the university are in the area of the bureaucracy. Whereas tenure is being eliminated in favor of part-time employment throughout the world, the university administration just keeps on expanding.

Now I know some of you are happy, the administrators, as you believe these positions are justified since reporting, accounting requirements keep on increasing, student numbers keep on going up, so of course, there should be more administrators.

But if you are not an administrator and are a faculty member you are wondering where is the money going to?. I know students everywhere are asking that. In one meeting we had on globalization and the university, one professor commented that the “the most important thing in globalization is reducing labor costs.” Someone else asked: and where are the biggest labor costs? The biggest labor cost is in the administration. If you really want a globalized university, first cut the deans. Of course, this is the most difficult position to cut since deans generally decide which positions go and which stay. Faculty planning seminars are essentially about implementing university plans, and not about creating new visions of education.

But the key question will be: what can be automated? Who can be replaced by the internet and web education? Perhaps both – faculty and the administration – will be in trouble. This is the debate: too many administrators or too many professors. A third perspective is – a market perspective – not enough students and thus each university believes it must globalize and have students from all over the world attend their physical campus as well as take courses from their virtual campuses. However, generally, most universities still think about students in narrow ways. As young people or as students from one’s own nation. But with the ageing population and with the internet (with bandwith likely to keep on increasing), one’s paying students can be from anywhere.

When I think of a student, I think of someone as 50, even 70 years old. The idea of 18 years old student is no longer an accurate representation. The biggest democratic shaft in human history is now occurring. We are moving from the medium age of OECD countries being 20 to 40. It’s dramatic shift.

Now the other classical view of university was academic-led – a shared culture focused on scholarship and science – but that too is been challenged. And of course the .com model even challenges what the university should look like. Should it be physical-based or virtual? Should it be based on a model of hierarchy or a networked model?

But for academics, the biggest challenge is the university as a corporation. And we know in the U.S. that Corporate funding for the University has increased from 850 million in 1985 to 4.25 billion US$ less than a decade later. In the last twenty years it has increased by eight times.

So the big money is coming from the corporation and money from the government is gradually being reduced years as per the dictates of the globalization model. While most presidents of the university would prefer a different model, they have no choice. More and more education is becoming an economic good. Humanity departments are being downsized throughout the world since the contribution to jobs is not direct. Unfortunately, they forget the indirect contribution, that of creating smart, multi-lingual, multi-cultural individuals – what some call social capital.

However, there are some quite insidious affects of corporatization. First, information is no longer open, as corporations use it for profit making. A survey of 210 life-science companies in 1994 found that 58% of those sponsoring academic research required delays of more than six months before publication. The content of science itself changes as the funding increased. In a 1996 study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, 98% of papers based on industry-sponsored research reflected favorably on the drugs being examined as compared with 79% based on research not funded by the industry. Now what accounts for that 19% variation? And how will the public then see the university? As with the medical system, once patients believe that doctors are beholden to certain drug companies or web sites they are less likely to trust them. This holds true for university research as well.

But there is another side to globalization. In 1989 in the U.S. there were 364 new start up companies on the basis of a license to an academic invention. University technology transfer activities generated 34 billion dollars in U.S.$ supporting 280,000 jobs.

So the university is becoming more global and also producing incredible wealth, so there are two sides to globalization.

Virtualization: the .com revolution

The .com revolution as well has mixed reviews. A quick example. Over night, one Australian university administration changed the prefix for academic emails from edu.au to .com. So over night your email changed from being Professor Chen@edu.au to Chen@com. The academics asked why did this occur. While some were upset that this happened without consultation, others were upset that the moral basis of the university was being transformed, they were deeply troubled by corporatization. The administration responded that we can no longer compete globally as an @.edu.au institution and instead had to become a .com. Eventually the university went back to edu.au as the pressure from academics was too great.

But the university administration could see the writing on the wall. The traditional model of the classical liberal arts national subsidized university was ending – a new model was emerging. The mistake they made was not engaging in dialogue with others, not living the .com network model but instead using the power-based secrecy model of the industrial era.

The other problem that administrations have not yet begun to see is that much of middle-management can and is likely to be eliminated. The emerging knowedge economy – via the net and future artificial intelligence systems – will lead to dis-intermediation. With a good information system, you don’t need all the secretaries, the clerks, as well as those higher up the ladder. Of course, the politics of job firing, retraining, is a different matter and central to how the future university and overall world economy is to be organized in the future.

Now the other impact of the .com revolution is that it creates the portable revolution. With colleagues, we produced a cdrom on Futures Studies which in effect is a portable university. One can get an MA through the cdrom, it has courses on it, stories of all the authors and it opens up to the web serving as a knowledge navigator for the field of futures studies. So when people ask me where I teach, I say, I just carry my university with me. Through the cdrom, you enter a new pedagogical world. You can, for example, e-mail all the authors and editors. Now remember when you were in college and if you wanted to ask questions of a textbook chapter, to e-mail a great scientist, a great social scientist, could you do that? With this type of technology you can ask authors questions of their text, seek further explanations. The text can become communicative instead of merely information.

Of course, one can put all this information on the web as well, however, bandwith while increasing is slow in many universities.

So the nature of what constitutes education is dramatically changing from being text focused to being customer student focused. From being campus focused to being virtual. The university than becomes a process, it is no longer simply a place, with fixed 9-5 work patterns, with fixed schedules for classes. It can become a network.

Multicultural Realities

The model of how think about what is taught – not just how it is taught, and the structure around education – is also changing. And this is the important trend of multiculturalism.

In its tokenistic form, multiculturalism became a government fad of the last decade in postindustrial societies, its most controversial feature being its excesses of ‘political correctness’. In its deeper nature it is

about inclusiveness. At heart, argues Ashis Nandy, multiculturalism is about dissent, about contesting the categories of knowledge that modernity has given us. And, even with multiculturalism often criticized and coopted, used strategically to ensure representation, still the future is likely to me more and more about an ethics of inclusion instead of a politics of exclusion. Of course, the struggle will be long and hard, and more often than not, instead of new curriculum, there will be just more special departments of the Other.

Deep multiculturalism challenges what is taught, how it is taught, the knowledge categories used to teach, and the way departments enclose the other. It provides a worldview in which to create new models of learning and new universities which better capture the many ways students know the world. As futures researcher Paul Wildman reminds us, this can extend to concepts such as multiversities and even ‘subversities’ which encourage participation from scholars and students who dwell at the periphery of

knowledge. In this form, multiculturalism goes beyond merely inclusion of ‘other’ ethnicities, to a questioning of the whole paradigm of western scientific rationalism on which centuries of university traditions are founded. In this perspective, multiple ways of knowing include spiritual or consciousness models of self, in which as James Grant for the Mahrishi University of Mangement and Marcus Bussey of The Ananda Marga Gurukul University assert, the main driver in transforming universities of the next century is an explosion of inner enlightenment, a new age of higher consciousness about to begin.

Multiculturalism ends the view that there is only one science. Western science instead of being seen as a quest for truth is considered to be one way of knowing among many. There are can alternative sciences – feminist science, Tantric science, Islamic science. They are still engaged in empirical and verifiable research but the questions asked, the ethical framework are different. Generally, the type of research is more concerned with indigenous problems, with local concerns. It is less violent to nature, toward “subjects” and more concerned with integrated self and other, mind and body, intellect and intuition.

What’s happening through out universities is that scholars are contesting the content of scholarship – how, for example, history is taught, asking are all civilizations included, or are only Western thinkers, Western notions of discovery and culture honored.

I give a lecture at an Australian university and questioned how they were teaching their main course on World History. I noted that the grand thinkers from Islamic, Sinic and Indian civilizations were not included. Why? And when other civilizations were briefly mentioned they were written as threats to the West or as barbarians. Women and nature as well were absent. I argued that this creates a view of history that is not only inaccurate but violent since other cultures see themselves through these hegemonic eyes. Instead of creating an inclusive history of humanity’s struggle, a history of one particular civilization becomes valorized.

While it is unlikely that the professor who teaches this course will change, students have changed. They want multiple global perspectives. They understand that they need to learn about other cultures from those cultures’ perspectives.

The multicultural challenge to the traditional university can be defined as below:

  • Challenge to western canon
  • Challenge to intellect as the only way of knowing
  • Challenge to divorce of academic from body and spirit – challenge to egghead vision of self/other
  • Challenge to modernist classification of knowledge
  • Challenge to traditional science (feminist, islamic, postnormal, indian)
  • Challenges pedagogy, curriculum as well as evaluation – ie process or culture, content and evaluation or what is counted.

We are already seeing the rise of multiculturalism in OECD nations. For example, at one conference in Boston, when participants were asked to list the five American authors they believed most necessary for a quality education, they placed Toni Morrison second and Maya Angelou third. Others on the top ten, included Maclom X and James Baldwin. The first was Mark Twain.

The multicultural perspective challenges as well the foundation of knowledge. Multicultural education is about creating structures and processes that allow for the expression of the many civilizations, communities and individuals that we are.

Multicultural education contests the value neutrality of current institutions such as the library. For example, merely including texts from other civilizations does not constitute a multi-cultural library. Ensuring that the contents of texts are not ethnocentric is an important step but this does not begin to problematize the definitional categories used in conventional libraries. For example, in the multicultural perspective, we need to ask what a library would look like if it used the knowledge paradigms of other civilizations? How would knowledge be rearranged? What would the library floors look like? In Hawaiian culture, for example, there might be floors for the Gods, for the aina and genealogy. In Tantra, empirical science would exist alongside intuitional science. Floor and shelve space would privilege the superconscious and unconscious layers of reality instead of only focusing on empirical levels of the real. In Islam, since knowledge is considered tawhidic (based on the unity of God), philosophy, science and religion would no longer occupy the discrete spaces they currently do. Of course, the spatiality of “floors” must also be deconstructed. Information systems from other civilizations might not privilege book-knowledge, focusing instead on story-telling and dreamtime as well as wisdom received from elders/ancestors (as in Australian Aboriginal) and perhaps even “angels” (either metaphorically or ontologically).

A multi-cultural library might look like the world wide web but include other alternative ways of knowing and being. Most certainly knowledge from different civilizations in this alternative vision of the “library” would not be relegated to a minor site or constituted as an exotic field of inquiry such as Asian, Ethnic or Feminist studies, as are the practices of current libraries. The homogeneity of the library as an organizing information system must be reconstructed if we are to begin to develop the conceptual framework of multi-cultural education.

Thus, not only is the structure of the University changing, that is, virtualization, but the content as well is being transformed. Now what does this mean? If you want your university to have a bright future, you have to understand the changing nature of the student – changing demographics (older, more females) and changing expectations (more multicultural). Generally, while getting a job will always be important, the equation has changed to planet, profits and people, that is, a strong concern for the environment, for making money and for engaging with others and other cultures.

Democratizing the Feudal Mind

The role of academics is changing as well. This is the generally the hardest notion for senior professors to swallow – the democratization of the university. We want democracy for government, but we don’t want democracy for universities .

The university remains feudal. For example, while the economy in East Asian nations has transformed, that is, feudalism was destroyed, the feudal mind has not changed. This is the grand question for East Asian nations. How to create a culture of innovation, how to go to the next level of economic development, instead of copying, creating. To create an innovative learning organization, you can’t have a culture of fear. This means real democracy in details like what type of seating is in the room. As well as: can students challenge professors? Can junior professors challenge senior academics without fear of reprisal. Innovation comes from questioning.

In British systems, the university structure is as well profoundly feudal. A strong distinction is made between the professor and the lecturer. Indeed, the professor is high on top the pyramid with others way below (and the president of the university residing on the mountain top).

Thus can we democratize the university? Of course, it is difficult to do this. No one likes being challenged. We all have our view of reality, our favorite models, and we believe we are correct. But creating a learning organization means challenging basic structures and finding new ways to create knowledge and wealth. It doesn’t mean always going to the President for solutions. Transforming the feudal university is very difficult.

However, I am not discounting the importance of respect for leadership, for discipline and hardwork – challenging authority doesn’t mean being rude, it means contesting the foundations for how we go about creating a good society.

So far I’ve touched upon four trends: corporatization, virtualization, multiculturalism and democratization as well as basic missions of the University. Given these trends and missions, what are the possibilities for the university, what are the possible structures?

Possible Structures

I see three possible structures. One is being a University leader, joining the world’s elite, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford. The focus then is: “We are only going to get the best bright students around the world.” But the challenge to this model comes from the .com world. The big money is unlikely to be in teaching but in content design. The issue is though once you put your name on cdroms, on internet content, does that diminish your brand name, its exclusivity. If everyone can enter an elite university’s web course, is the university still elite? This is the issue of franchising. Should you focus on a small customer base that can pay a lot or become like the University of Pheonix (the largest university in the USA, offers no tenure, uses short courses as well as flexible delivery. A kind of just-in-time education).

For large universities, there are two clear choices – elite university or low cost producers with hundreds of millions of new students all over the world as potential purchasers. A third choice for the smaller university is the niche university –focused in a particular area of excellence. Not trying to be too much, just focused on one particular area (regional concerns, for example).

The question for the traditional university is new competition from global players: multi-media corporations, elite universities that are expanding and branding as well as low-cost producers.

These issues are already of concern in the USA, and soon they will be crucial here as well. It is harder to see this in East Asian nations (and those colonized by England) since the State plays such a strong role in education. But eventually in five or ten years the competition will come here as well. All universities will find themselves in a global market.

Scenarios for the Future

The next question is what are the probable scenarios for the future of the university. We use scenarios to reduce uncertainty. Scenarios are also important in that they also help us rethink the present – they give us a distance from today.

Earlier futures studies focused entirely on single point prediction. The field then moved to scenario planning, to alternative futures. But now, it is moving to capacity development, with creating learning organizations where foresight is a continuous part of what the organization does.

Studies that examine corporations that have survived over a hundred years found that the one key factor in explaining longevity was the capacity to tolerate ideas from the margin. For universities this is crucial – the capacity to tolerate dissent, indeed, to nurture different ideas, new ideas from the edge.

In terms of scenarios, the first one is the Star Alliance model. I use this term from the airlines – where the passenger is always taken care of – there is easy movement from one airline to the other. Everything is smooth. For the university, this would mean easy movement of student credits, faculty and programs. A student could take one semester at Stanford, and a second semester in Tamkang, and a third semester at Singapore National University. Professors could also change every semester. So it means a similar web of movement, that’s one big possibility. Star alliance works because customers are happy. The airlines are happy because they get brand loyalty. The student might say “I know if I join this university, my credits are transferable. I could access the best professor, I could access the best knowledge in the world.

The second scenario is what I call, Virtual Touch. This vision of the future of the university combines the best of face-to-face pedagogy (human warmth, mentoring) with virtual pedagogy (instant, anywhere in the world, at your own time and speed). If it is just technology then you get bored students, staring at a distant professor. But if it is just face-to-face you don’t get enough information. The universities who can combine both will do very well.   Ultimately that will mean wearable wireless computers. We already know that in Japan they use the wireless phone to dial up a website and find the out the latest movie, or weather or stock quote.

In 10 years, it is going to be the wearable computer, so we’re going to have a computer with us all the time. I can find out everything, I can find out the minerals in water for example, testing to see if it is clean or not. And that technology is almost developed now. I can find out where was my microphone was made. Was it made in China, in Taiwan, in the U.K. I just dial up and I can get product information. And this information will be linked to my values, what type of world I want to see. Thus, I’ll purchase products that are environmentally friendly, where the corporation treats women well. And students will see university courses in the same way: is it well taught, what is the professor like, how much democracy is in the class, what are the values of the University?

The third scenario is: A university without all walls. It’s means the entire world becomes a university . As Majid Tehranian writes: “If all goes well, the entire human society will become a university without walls and national boundaries.” We don’t need specific universities anymore since the university is everywhere, a true knowledge economy wherein humans constantly learn and use their knowledge to create processes that create a better fairer, richer, happier world.

The Future of the Profession

Let me now return to the future of the academic. What is our role in this dramatically changing world. The first possibility is the traditional professor – this is the agent of authority, great in one field but knowing very little about other fields. They may know Physics but not complexity theory. They are useful in that they are brilliant in one area but not so useful since they have a hard time adapting to change.

The second role is the professor as web content designer. While the current age-cohort is unlikely to engage in these activities, younger people will. Even my six year old wants to be a cdrom designer when he grows up. Other young people as well see knowledge as quite different than we do. They see knowledge as quick, as interactive, as multi-disciplinary and as always changing. They want to be web designers and information designers. So the old role of academics was to write books, the new role is that of creating new types of interactive content. And the content will likely be far more global, multicultural than we have so far seen. It appears to be an entirely different world being created.

That also means, if you’re the web designer, you’re student becomes key. This means using action learning methods. Action learning means that the content of the course is developed with the student. While the professor may have certain authoritative knowledge, his or her role is more of a mentor, the knowledge navigator to help the student develop his or her potential within his or her categories of what is important.

You might say this is impossible in Asian nations and former British colonies. But many years ago we had a one week course in Thailand. The subject was the futures of economic development. The first four days, we had heavy lectures, but on the 5th day, my colleague from Queensland University of Tony Stevenson said to the students “you design the course.” For the first half-hour, the students looked down. But after twenty minutes they started talking and eventually designed the next few days.

My sense is that this is good news for academics. Most of the professors I speak with would prefer less teaching – information passing out – and more communication. The mentoring role is far more rewarding, personal. The old school was the long lecture. The new way of thinking is just tell the student to go the web and find out. Afterwards there can be a discussion. The Professor then has to learn how to listen to students’ needs and not just to lecture to them.

What is unique about our era is that we now have the technology to do this. Do we have the political will, the wisdom?

Dissenting Futures

Let me close this speech with the issue of dissent. What makes the role of the academic unique is that he or she can challenge authority. When the system becomes too capitalistic, this can be questioned. If it is too religious, this too can be countered. All the excesses of the system can be challenged. And who can do this? Those who work for the government can’t since they fear losing their jobs. Those belonging in the church, temple or mosque can’t since they are ideologically bound. And this is the problem with globalization, by making efficiency the only criteria, moral space is lost. As academics we should never, I believe, lose sight of our responsibility to create new futures, to inspire students, to ask what-if questions, to think the unthinkable, to go outside current parameters of knowledge. This is our responsibility to current and future generations.

 

Selected References

Eyal Press and Jennifer Washburn, The Kept University in The Atlantic Monthly (March 2000), 39-54.

Glazer, Nathan. We are all Multiculturalists Now. Harvard, Harvard University Press, 1997.

Inayatullah, Sohail and Jennifer Gidley, eds. The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives on the Futures of the University. Westport, Ct., Bergin and Garvey, 2000.

Inayatullah, S. “The Multicultural Challenge to the Future of Knowledge.” Periodica Islamica, 1996, 6(1), 35–40.

Staff, “Online Education: Lessons of a virtual timetable,” The Economist (February 17, 2001), 71-75.

Tehranian, M. “The End of the University.” Information Society, 1996, 12(4), 444–446.

Wildman, P. “From the Monophonic University to Polyphonic Multiversities.” Futures, 1998, 30(7), 625–635.

Wiseman, L. “The University President: Academic Leadership in an Era of Fund Raising and Legislative Affairs.” In R. Sims and S. Sims (eds.), Managing Institutions of Higher Education into the Twenty-First Century. Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1991.

 

Websites

www.gurkul.edu

www.ru.org

Hard to Plan for a Brave New World (2000)

(Australian Financial Review, 22 February 2000).

SOHAIL INAYATULLAH

 

FINANCIAL PLANNING

How can we plan financially when the impact of technology and an ageing population promise to transform our lives, asks Sohail Inayatullah.

Even amid the “future shock” of the past 50 years, the future has been stable. It has been defined by continued economic growth a suburban home, escape from manual work, a better life for one’s children, and a nuclear family.

There are also traditional notions of the course of one’s life (birth, student, work and retirement near the ocean or golf course) and working patterns (five days a week, nine to five).

Financial planning for long-term security is an easy task when the future is similar to the past. In such a climate, things work out irrespective of when one invests in the share markets, as long as one keeps on investing.

Of course, say the planners, investing should be balanced, and the sooner you start, the better. But in the year 2000, can we confidently assert there will be a continuation of the trend of rising markets, of the move from industrial to post-industrial, of increasing wealth for the top- and for the middle-class in western nations?

Going back a generation, researchers in a 10-nation survey asked 9,000 people 200 questions focused on this year. They were asked to predict the future (Images of the World in the Year 2000, edited by Johan Galtung and Robert Jungk).

What they saw was the dark side of the “continued growth” future. Says Galtung: “More sexual freedom, less attachment to families, more divorce, more mental illness, more narcotics and more criminality, a future of highly materialistic, egocentric individuals striving for personal pleasure and benefit.”

What people saw was a gap between the image of the future an endless array of new technologies leading to progress and the reality of their own, increasingly meaningless lives. They saw the

postmodern future and, for Australians the reality is borne out in our youth suicide rates.

It is this social vacuum that has historically characterised a time between eras, but what will the new era we have entered look like? Can we plan for such an era?

In visioning workshops conducted by this author in Taiwan, New Zealand, Thailand, Germany and Australia, two alternative futures emerged.

The first is the continued growth scenario and the second is an organic, green future. In this “green” future, technology is still central but relationship with nature, God and neighbours is more important than getting a new yacht.

But the future may be dramatically different from either of these forecasts and three growing trends challenge them.

Ageing: First, an ageing population means retirement pensions are difficult to sustain (the ratio of worker to retiree will dip from 3:1 to 1.5:1). Second, who will buy shares when baby-boomers sell for their retirements? Third, whose hard work will drive the economy? Fourth, can we imagine a world with an average age of 40 instead of the historical 20?

Genetics: Discoveries occurring daily may mitigate against the decline in elderly health. Also on the horizon are the creation of synthetic DNA, computers that use DNA instead of chips to store information, cloning, designer babies and the unlinking of sex and reproduction.

Few would object to gene therapy for curing illnesses or preventive gene therapy for foetuses, but there is a fast slide down the slippery slope from genetic prevention to genetic enhancement. Already on Wall Street, the stock prices of genetic companies are starting the quick rise upwards, not yet like .com companies, but the next likely wave.

To assume the genetic future is far away is a huge mistake. With the mapping of human genomes soon to be concluded, next will be social engineering on a massive scale.

Will insurance companies give life and critical illness insurance to those with inappropriate genes? With germ line engineering (the manipulation of genes we pass to our children) the genetic structure of future generations will be modified, eliminating diseases and “undesirable” traits. For more information, try http://research.mednet.ucla.edu/pmts/germline.

Jobs and work: A multitude of job categories are being created that did not exist a few years ago. While genetic counselling will certainly be a boom career, the deeper question is: will there be jobs in the future? Again not a question with a simple answer. There are three scenarios. The first is: 10 per cent work and 90 per cent don’t. The second scenario is: 30 per cent work full time, 40 per cent are in contract work and 30 per cent remain unemployed. The last scenario is full employment the dream of all liberal governments but, with women working and technology eliminating work, the least likely.

The big question remains: can a future about to be transformed by ageing, genetics and the internet be stable and secure? Can it be planned for?

When your financial planner gives you high-growth, medium-growth and slow-growth scenarios for your investments, ask what will happen if the world dramatically changes, transforming assumptions of continued growth, changing how we work, how we age and the very basis of life.