Minimising Conflicts Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020).

By Ivana Milojević

First published 11 May 2020, Journal of Futures Studies.

“The challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic is that …[a]t times such as these, our stress levels become higher and our difficult emotions seem to surface more readily. This not only leads to more conflicts, it leads to more unresolved conflicts.”[i]

“As a rise in family violence due to the coronavirus crisis is set to strain an already critically overstretched social support system, some abusers are reportedly using COVID-19 as a psychological weapon.”[ii]

“We could be facing multiple famines of biblical proportions within a short few months … the world is not only facing “a global health pandemic but also a global humanitarian catastrophe.”[iii]

“Covid-19 has brought wealthy nations to their knees. What will happen when the virus breaks out in a war zone?[iv] … the impact [may]be unpredictable and potentially catastrophic.[v]

“As the coronavirus sweeps the world, it hits the poor much harder than the better off. One consequence will be social unrest, even revolutions.”[vi]

“Covid-19 is fuelling conflict: New ways will be needed to make peace.”[vii]

The headlines above suggest the critical importance of enhancing our conflict resolution capacities. As COVID-19 races around the world, we can anticipate further increases in conflicts. Indeed, psychologists and humanitarian organizations (such as WHO, the Red Cross, Beyond Blue) have already posted some helpful guidelines as to how to defuse intra- and inter-personal conflicts. Developing mental resilience along these recommendations is critical because it is our response to the pandemic rather than the virus itself that will cause conflicts. And while, at this stage, we cannot fully control the virus’s spread and its impact on the economy, there are still actions we can do to minimize conflict. Even in situations of protracted social conflict, the outbreak is opening up a variety of ‘new and unexpected scenarios’, making a whole range of strategies, impossible before the pandemic, possible today (Garrigues, 2020).

Exploring our options for the futures of conflict is linked to how and why conflicts arise in the first place. However, the causes and mechanisms of conflict differ. There are several specific areas over which conflicts tend to arise. They include: information, resources, relationships, structures, and values. Furthermore, there is intrapersonal/inner conflict. Negative economic, social, and health impacts of the 2020 pandemic are already expected to be huge.[viii][ix] Fuelling existing and emerging conflicts will only make matters worse. Epidemics and pandemics have historically been known to change the course of history. At times, the change was positive, for example: improvement in hygiene practices, redistribution of wealth,  improved individual and social relationships in the aftermath, and even “the end of chattel slavery” (Snowden, 2020) in some parts of the world. How damaged, or, alternatively, how well we come out of this one, will depend on many factors, including how we negotiate numerous conflicts ahead. Smart and workable strategies to minimise, manage and even transform the conflict for the better, will significantly influence our future lives and worlds.

INFORMATION

To start with, conflicts often arise in relation to insufficient information. Addressing conflicts about information is one of the easiest ways to prevent and ease the conflict. Policy makers and government agencies, reputable media, ethical individuals, organisations, and various experts all have a role to play in providing timely, accurate, and transparent information. This should help with finding the right balance between underestimating (‘I/we will certainly not get it’) and overestimating (‘we are all doomed’) the threat from the virus. Gathering facts and clarifying confusion makes a significant contribution to the easing of rising tensions – tensions that commonly bring fear, superstition, magical thinking, and conspiracy ideation into the open. This is always important, but it is especially critical nowadays (i.e. with the prevalence of ‘false/fake news’ and the ‘doubling-down’ of ideological positions), to rely on scientific, evidence-based and reputable sources of information. Governments, social media, and all of us can make a positive contribution in that regard. It can also be helpful to have a guiding metaphor or tagline to enable a focused strategy. For example, a helpful saying to address conflict related to insufficient or false information could be: ‘Accurate information, timely shared’ or ‘Information Hygiene’.

Brian Mcgowan, Unsplash

RESOURCES

Another common source of conflict is the scarcity of resources. We have seen ‘the battle over respirators’ increasingly becoming a source of international conflicts, corruption, and weakening previously friendly ties between nations (e.g. the US versus Germany or France and Germany versus Italy). At the community level, the police needed to intervene when ‘battles over toilet paper rolls’ in supermarkets manifested in physical violence.

Three key developments work in relation to conflicts over scarce resources. First, conflict decreases when the need for the resources dissipates, or individuals anticipate that there is no restriction, i.e. there are positive expectations of the future. This will likely happen if the need for respirators and other necessities – either due to virus containment or prevention/the invention of a cure or even fair rationing – diminishes. The race to find a workable vaccine and/or cure is already occurring and should be further encouraged and enabled. Fair rationing is currently ad-hoc, dependent on the goodwill of businesses and sporadic government measures. These measures should be made systemic, ongoing, and predictable. Uncertainty feeds into the existing and creates new conflicts. As much as possible, uncertainty should be reduced.

Another common strategy is to provide more of the resources that are currently scarce. In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic that means producing more respirators and other necessities (i.e. products needed for hygiene and protection such as disinfectants, masks, and so on). As is already happening in some places (i.e. distillers producing hand sanitizers or clothing factories producing face masks) this means reevaluating current production priorities and/or repurposing existing production capacities. Local/national/global bodies coordinating such efforts could become invaluable.

The third strategy focuses on the fair sharing and allocation of resources. We usually deal with the lack of resources better than we do with uncertainty or (real or perceived) injustice in how resources are distributed. Clear and fair rules based on community needs and legal and ethical frameworks would go a long way in making this type of conflict dissipate. These rules and strategies should focus on people’s needs rather than wants; i.e. sharing what is needed, as opposed to free-market principles that enable panic buying.

A helpful guiding metaphor or saying for addressing conflicts related to the scarcity of resources could be: ‘There is enough for all – solidarity’ or ‘equitable/fair sharing’.

Mick Haupt, Unsplash

RELATIONSHIPS

Yet another common source of conflict is over relationships. We are already witnessing considerable damage done to interpersonal relationships because of people’s tendency to overreact and/or become more selfish when fear and panic strike. Also dangerous is the ‘blame game’ – accusations as to who has or may contract the virus from whom, who is (ir)responsible and who is excessively cautious/‘over the top’, who has done something similarly irresponsible in the past, and so on. These tensions will introduce some destructive elements to the existing differences between people and communities which would otherwise not cause many problems. Alternatively, if problems do arise due to these differences, they would (in calmer times) find relatively easy solutions. So what we all need to watch for is the possibility of the breakdown of personal relationships, and do our best to avoid stereotyping and scapegoating – both are very common practices amongst humans, especially during times of stress. The best antidote here is to not ‘other’ individuals and communities, but to turn our thinking around – from judgment and exclusionary/excessive self-focus to a compassionate view and concern for others. That is, other people can be seen as very similar to me/us, with the same fears, concerns and needs. This mental practice helps avoid ‘the worse of humanity’ which often manifests during times of conflict.

A helpful guiding metaphor for addressing conflicts related to relationships could be: ‘Everyone is me’ or ‘We are all in this together’.

Filip Filkovic-philatz, Unsplash

STRUCTURE

Conflicts about structure are related to access to power or resources, as well as to different amounts of respect and decision-making authority that are given to groups and individuals (Kraybill, 2001). We have created a very unequal world, where structural injustices determine that the well-being and even lives of certain groups of people are endangered. During crisis situations, the system ensures that those ‘on the top’ have higher chances of survival and a higher quality of life. Those at ‘the bottom’ face the opposite. For example, all over the world, the system of patriarchy ensures that women and children in situations of domestic violence will suffer violent conflict and abuse even more during the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, reports about the increased rate of domestic violence during lockdowns and other restrictive measures are multiplying (e.g. OHCHR, Graham-Harrison et al. 2020, Murray & Young, 2020, Kelly, 2020). As economically difficult and stressful situations are known to increase this type of violence, systemic countermeasures are absolutely necessary. Other protective measures are also needed for millions of people who are currently losing their jobs and incomes, those already unemployed and homeless, refugees and low-income foreign workers. Structural measures are needed to address the possibility of being evicted, deported or not being able to afford the basics – for this reason welfare payments, universal basic income or aid need to be enhanced. If these measures are not put in place, we could expect a rise in violent conflict, criminality and the number of preventable deaths. Ideally, the Covid-19 pandemic can provide an opportunity to address the world’s unequal systems and structures and create more equitable and fair societies. It is also an opportunity to provide much-needed support to the struggling health sector and health workers. In place of the ‘survival of the fittest’ and ‘dog eats dog’ the guiding metaphor could be ‘global fairness’, ‘equitable societies – better for all’ or ‘flattening the inequity curve’.

Rusty Gouveia, Pixabay

VALUES

Conflicts over relationships and structure can be difficult to resolve due to our common insular and myopic views based on short-term thinking. Even harder is resolving conflicts involving values. For example, the rush to create a workable vaccine may be motivated by values which focus on profit or national interest (such as the US president’s offer to purchase exclusive access to coronavirus vaccine being developed by a German company) versus those that focus on altruism and the long-term greater good. Yet another value position is based on certain religious beliefs (‘God decides what happens’) versus values based on rational/secular beliefs (‘Humans are in charge’). Values and beliefs are commonly formed based on certain previous life experiences or ideological and faith positions. We can expect a shift in personal values (i.e. ‘It is important to shake peoples’ hands when we first meet them’ towards ‘social-distancing’) based on new experiences, whereas others might solidify even further (i.e. various faith positions). For example, the anti-vaxxer position is unlikely to shift, even if a reliable vaccine becomes available and the illness caused by the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) becomes more visible in their community. Discourses about ‘Big Pharma’, ‘natural’ immunity and the ‘benefits’ of the virus eliminating the old or sick members of the community will most likely continue acting as a cognitive ‘shield’ that prevents personal values and beliefs from being undermined by external reality. The best strategy so far invented here is to allocate a separate sphere of influence for each set of values – rational/secular/evidence-based/scientific to the realm of the state and government and policy-making vis-à-vis religious beliefs to the realm of the spiritual and psychological. Moreover, there will be an ongoing discussion in relation to privacy issues and individual freedom vis-à-vis public safety. Individualistic and liberal communities and societies will struggle more with the coming restrictions than collectivist and rules-based authoritarian societies. The helpful guiding metaphor will thus depend on the context: i.e. ‘In Government/Our Leaders (or Scientists and Health Workers) We Trust’ or ‘Community Mobilizes’.

Jordan Hopkins, Unsplash

INTRAPERSONAL

Certainly, the inner, intrapersonal conflict will also skyrocket. ‘Should I exercise in a closed area?’, ‘Should I go visit such and such?’, ‘Should I travel to XYZ?’, ‘How much food should I stock up on?’, ‘Do I have enough toilet paper?’, ‘How long will this last?’, ‘How will I make ends meet?, ‘Is XYZ financial decision smart or stupid?’, ‘What will happen to the others if I get sick’, ‘How will I cope if I get ill?’, etc. The main conflict will be between our ‘rational’ self and our ‘fearful/panicky’ one, as well as between our ‘inner extrovert’ and ‘inner introvert’. The best strategy so far invented in this regard is to practice ‘watching one’s own thoughts’ (i.e. mindfulness, cognitive behavioral therapy, critical thinking) and to attempt to distance ourselves a bit from them. Once we gain that small distance, we can then try to investigate what each sub-personality has to offer. Perhaps some sort of balance between rationality and fear should inform our actions? For example, we can take some precautions such as washing our hands and channel our fearful self (subpersonality) into vigilance over that specific set of actions related to personal hygiene. Another specific set of actions we can take based on our fearful self is to be vigilant about sources of information and double-check whether they are coming from reputable sources – information hygiene. On the other hand, our rational self (sub-personality) can assist us in preventing overreactions and making rash decisions based on emotions. Striking a balance between the two will, once again, go a long way in addressing our inner conflicts. Thus, one may choose to see themselves as assets rather than imaging these selves as opposing sides in a battlefield.

Another common inner conflict is between ‘control’ and ‘letting go’. Once again, balancing insights from these different types of mental processes is critical. The key is to direct time and energy towards things we can control, such as how to qualitatively organize one’s time during self-isolation or which recommendations to follow and to let go of things we cannot, such as other people’s behavior or other external factors.

Indeed, refocusing our attention is critical to minimizing personal anxiety and interpersonal conflict. So instead of overly focusing on ‘I do not want to die,’ ‘I do not want [somebody close to me]to die’, or ‘I will not be able to cope if I [or somebody close to me]get sick’ (thoughts possibly at the back of most people’s minds), the focus could be on ‘How can I help?’, ‘What is and is not in my sphere of influence?’, ‘How can I best ‘let go’ of things I cannot control?’, or ‘What is the wisest way for me to contribute?’. Psychologists commonly recommend strengthening self-care in times of crisis. This includes both behavioral (i.e. sufficient sleep, good food, some safe exercise, relaxation, etc.) and psychological responses (i.e. being aware of one’s own thinking and behavior and adjusting these patterns if needed). Spiritual and religious practices have been shown to be beneficial in crises as well (i.e. ‘Let go and let God’), providing they do not cause the erroneous application of ‘faith-based solutions’ in the material world, where fact-based solutions are necessary. The best way forward is: 1. Choosing the thoughts and actions that minimize the possibility of violence arising now and in the future, and 2. Using existing conflicts to create something new, a better future.

The guiding metaphors could be: ‘The Kindness (to oneself and others) Pandemic’ or ‘Self-Others care’.

Andre Ouellet, Unsplash

EMERGENCE: CREATING INNER AND OUTER BALANCE

Finally, conflict theorists also commonly mention that every conflict can become a golden opportunity to create something new. For example, perhaps we could use this time to pause and reevaluate some personal values and practices (i.e. from  ‘big life questions’ such as: ‘how should I live my life knowing that I can die unexpectedly and suddenly’, to smaller questions such as: ‘how should I organize my daily activities during this forced pause’, or, ‘how could I best be of service to others’)?

We can also inquire into solutions that are needed to improve existing social structures, systems and institutions. Perhaps the coronavirus and other environmental changes could help us rethink the human-nature relationship so that this relationship is also improved? Indeed, there is an opportunity to generate a strong global response to the climate crisis, and out of the “ashes of the corona crisis [create]something new” (Watts, 2020). Or, given the difficulties nations and states face to solve global problems, perhaps we could investigate what type of global and, alternatively, communal/regional/local institutions we should create or enhance?

We are already seeing efforts to coordinate global health efforts, even transform existing economic and social structures as well as the worldview behind them. For example, a joint statement of the G20 leaders framed the Covid-19 pandemic as a ‘powerful reminder of our inter-connectedness and vulnerabilities’ (G20, 2020). Because ‘the virus respects no borders’ they committed to ‘presenting a united front against this common threat’ (ibid.). Their call for action should be replicated as a springboard for a host of other problems – from climate change to global inequality – conflicts around Covid-19 thus truly becoming an opportunity to create something substantially better for the future. In their words, what is needed is ‘a transparent, robust, coordinated, large-scale and science-based global response in the spirit of solidarity’ (ibid.). Beyond dealing with this pandemic, there is much work left to be done. In addition to addressing pandemics, a global campaign for ‘a new just world economic system, where all nations work for the benefit of the other in a win-win fashion’ is also needed – ‘we need to change our outlook, or we [humans]will perish’ (Askary, 2020). Indeed, countless individuals and organizations have already been working on workable solutions towards such a transition for decades.

And yet, we do live in an imbalanced nation-based geopolitical system. We are in the middle of numerous conflicts, inner and outer. Some entrenched values and worldviews are behind structures and systems that reward inequity and injustice. Alternatives are all around us, though they remain marginalized. Balancing acts are never easy. Yet, depending on how skilled we are or become in the process of minimizing versus enhancing thoughts and behavior that give rise to conflict, we can influence the development of more or less peaceful futures. Indeed, with each and every action we take these days, we already do so. Hope remains that we can all use this illness as a way to make ourselves, others, and the planet healthier. The new guiding metaphor could be: ‘A different, better world and the best possible selves are possible’.

Summary Table

Source and Type of Conflict: Makes it worse Makes it better
Information Inability to discriminate between false and real information Relying on scientific, evidence-based and reputable sources of information
Resources Uncertainty and unfairness of allocation Clear and fair rules based on community needs
Relationships
Blaming, scapegoating, stereotyping Compassion and concern towards others
Structure Measures that help the more powerful Measures that help the most vulnerable
Values Insularity, rigidity Dialogue, openness
Intrapersonal Focusing on thoughts and actions that enhance fear, create controlling behavior and lead to being overwhelmed Awareness, self-other care, balancing sub-personalities, gratitude, surrender to what’s outside of one’s control
Source and Type of Conflict: Detrimental guiding metaphor Helpful guiding metaphor
Information I see, I share Accurate information, timely shared; Information hygiene
Resources Me/We first; First come, first served There is (will be) enough for all; Solidarity and fairness
Relationships ‘They’ are causing the pandemic We are all in this together
Structure Survival of the fittest Flattening the inequity curve
Values Natural immunity; We/humans are powerless In government/our leaders/scientists/ health workers we trust; Community mobilizes
Intrapersonal The sky is falling Kindness pandemic

Table by: Ivana Milojević, Metafuture, www.metafuture.org

About the Author

Dr. Ivana Milojević is a researcher, writer and educator with a trans-disciplinary professional background in sociology, education, gender, peace and futures studies and Director of Metafuture. She has held professorships at several universities and is currently focused on conducting research, delivering speeches and facilitating workshops for governmental and academic institutions, international associations, and non-governmental organizations. Dr. Milojević can be contacted at ivana@metafuture.org

The author would like to thank Charmaine Sevil for her creativity on the images in this article.  Charmaine Sevil is a futures designer and her website is www.sevilco.com.au

References:

[i] https://www.relationshipswa.org.au/news-events/current-news-and-events/2020/april/how-to-manage-relationship-tensions-during-covid-1

[ii] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-29/coronavirus-family-violence-surge-in-victoria/12098546

[iii] https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062272

[iv] https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/coronavirus-conflict-zones-fight-has-hardly-begun

[v] https://devpolicy.org/peace-and-the-pandemic-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-conflict-in-asia-20200414/

[vi] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-11/coronavirus-this-pandemic-will-lead-to-social-revolutions

[vii] https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/covid-19-is-fuelling-conflict-new-ways-will-be-needed-to-make-peace

[viii] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-03-19/real-pandemic-danger-social-collapse

[ix] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17167882; https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/646195/EPRS_BRI(2020)646195_EN.pdf

Who is Right, Lyn or Pam? Using Conflict Resolution Scenario Methods (CRSM) to Resolve an Organisational Conflict (2020)

By Ivana Milojević, First published as JFS Blog, 11 February 2020.

Lyn and Pam (names have been changed) are co-workers in an Australian organisation. They are in the middle of a conflict that has been brought to their director’s attention. The director is not sure whether to engage with this conflict, as it appears rather trivial. Like most people do when it comes to conflicts, the director is hoping that the quarrel will dissipate and disappear on its own. Also like most people, she habitually uses a style of conflict resolution that she learned in her family of origin; she applies it to all conflicts, regardless of the context. She has spoken to both Lyn and Pam, yet the conflict persists. Team work is suffering and the organisational targets are not going to be met.

Conflict in organisations can take many forms and can manifest at different magnitudes. Left to fester, conflicts can have a number of detrimental consequences for the organisation and the people who work in it. The ten biggest costs of organisational conflict have been identified (Blank, 2020: 46) as: (1) wasted time, (2) bad decisions, (3) lost employees, (4) unnecessary restructuring, (5) sabotage, theft and damage, (6) lowered job motivation, (7) lost work time, (8) health costs, (9) toxic workplace and (10) grievances and lawsuits. In terms of ‘hard currencies’ of time and money, one 2008 study found that U.S. employees spent 2.8 hours per week dealing with conflict – the equivalent of 385 million working days of $359 billion in paid hours (Blank, 2020: 45-46).

Conflicts have been part and parcel of human experience. For a very long time, humans have tried to solve conflicts and have developed a host of strategies which can be grouped into four basic categories (Ury et al 1988, Galtung, 1965):

  1. Power-based methods. The question asked here is: who is the most powerful? Common strategies used are direct violence (e.g. military action, forceful policing, domestic violence, torture) and various types of threats and coercion (e.g. economic sanctions, shunning, ostracising and bullying).
  2. Rights-based methods. The question asked here is: who has (or can make) the best case? Common strategies used are reliant on dominant rules and authorities within a society or a community (e.g. laws and legal systems, religious texts, codes and tenets or other forms of authority).
  3. Randomness or chance-based methods. The question asked here is: who is the luckiest? Strategies used may involve any type of sortition such as coin toss, straw-draw, rock-paper-scissor game or random lottery/selection.
  4. Interest or needs based methods. The question asked her is: what are the needs and concerns by all parties involved in the conflict? Strategies used involve various problems solving approaches which require empathy, nonviolence and creativity.

https://examples.yourdictionary.com/internal-conflict-examples.html

It is clear from the above that the way conflict is resolved and whether such conflict resolution is sustainable is highly dependable on the way the conflict is framed. The way conflict is framed then influences the question asked and the strategies used. The underlying views and assumptions about human nature – such as (1) humans are violent and world is competitive vs. (2) humans are rational and can resolve conflicts non-violently vs. (3) humans are naturally good and connected with everyone and everything else that exists vs. (4) humans are all those things – will also impact on a choice of strategies. Finally, personal and cultural factors determine whether parties involved will be able to resolve the conflict themselves informally or there will be a need for the third party and formal involvement. As the power of disputants to manage their own conflict decreases, so does the potency of interest and needs based methods, to be replaced by rights based and power-based methods instead. As evocatively expressed by Kraybill (2001: 18) when law begins community ends.

At the organisational level, disputants commonly have access to a range of these methods, and sometimes legal instruments are needed. Legal processes, however, are costly and time consuming so interest or needs based methods are preferable when there is still even a semblance of a community within an organisation. Moreover, even after legal processes are completed, organisations need to restore optimal communal functioning. Conflict resolution scenario methods (CRSM) help with such organisational, interpersonal and community-based disputes.

The (trivial?) conflict between Lyn and Pam is as follows:

Pam recently moved to the same shared, open-space office where a number of other people, including Lyn, work. When she met everyone, she introduced herself as Pam. While all other people call her by that name, Lyn refuses to. Instead, as is the custom in some parts of Australia, she decided to make her name longer and add ‘o’ to it. The day Pam became ‘Pam-o’ was the day she became irritated by Lyn. At first, she tried to ignore her. Then she became stern and rude towards her. Then she engaged in some passive aggressive behaviour, refusing to follow up on the projects that were to be done cooperatively. After a number of months, she stopped talking to Lyn completely. She tells her friends that Lyn is a horrible person. Pam’s friends at the office agree. They say Lyn is a ‘country bumpkin’ and a ‘bogan’ [an Australian slang for an uncouth or unsophisticated person regarded as being of low social status]. Lyn has no idea why Pam is so upset. Her and her friends think Pam is a bit uptight and should mellow out. Lyn is higher in the organisational hierarchy though not directly Pam’s superior. Pam has worked in that organisation for a longer time but has never confronted Lyn about the nickname issue directly.

https://blog.bookbaby.com/2017/07/internal-conflict-and-your-characters/

From the outside, the conflict between Lyn and Pam seems relatively easy to resolve. The director of the organisation thought that by raising the issue with Lyn, she would stop her behaviour. However, Lyn claims that she has trouble distinguishing between Pam and Pat who both work at the office, so calling Pam Pam‘o’ makes it easier for her. Pam rejects this explanation and believes Lyn’s motives are more sinister. In any case, both are now so irritated with each other that they are requesting the director to ‘chose a side’ and to explain the other one why she is wrong in her thinking and behaviour.

The director herself became irritable that she has to waste her time on a trivial conflict, instead of focusing on reaching organisational targets. She attends a futures workshop (which I co-facilitated) where Conflict Resolution Scenario Methods (CRSM) are used.

I have previously used CRSM on a number of conflicts and in a number of settings. For example, I have written a theoretical piece, published in 2008 in Journal of Futures Studies, which applied it to an international, inter-ethnic conflict (Milojević, 2008). I have also used it to better understand and propose solutions to an intergroup conflict, e.g. the Australian 2005 Cronulla Riots. Finally, I have used it to assist disputants resolve interpersonal conflict, such as the one between Lyn and Pam.

In a nutshell, CRSM proposes there are five basic future outcomes of any given conflict between two disputants. Based on works by Johan Galtung (the Transcend method), Thomas Kilmann Conflict Mode Instrument and Ron Kraybill’s Conflict Styles method, the five possibilities are summarized as follows:

  1. Conflict is resolved ‘my way’. Disputant 1 wins.
  2. Conflict is resolved ‘your way’. Disputant 2 wins.
  3. Conflict is resolved ‘half way’. Disputants compromise.
  4. Conflict is resolved ‘our way’. Disputants achieve transcendence and cooperation.
  5. There is ‘no way’ to deal with conflict. Disputants withdraw or continue to evade the conflict.

Researchers have found that most people are comfortable using one or two conflict resolution styles and that they apply them to most situations, irrespective of circumstances. Personal, cultural and ideological factors also play a role. ‘My way’ approaches are more popular with people who hold political and economic power, and in individualistic, competitive based cultures. ‘Your way’ approaches are commonly utilised by those who have a dominant ‘pleaser’ self. Most people, most of the time, try to not deal directly with conflict, i.e. to not engage or somehow withdraw from it. Most of us are conflict avoiders (most of the time) even though the news makes it seem we are all at war with each other. ‘Our way’ or ‘win-win’ solutions are favoured by cooperative cultures and left leaning ideologies.

Each of these styles, however, has costs and benefits. What is helpful for conflict resolution, in organisations and elsewhere, is to get out of routine responses to conflict, critically evaluate which style may be the most appropriate and help our (reflective) self choose the style rather than a particular style becoming the core of our identity/habitual response.

Certainly, conflict resolution is enhanced if there is empathy (with all parties), nonviolence, creativity (imagination is practiced), honesty and compassion, and a focus on needs (Galtung, n.d.). Some knowledge and understanding of the conflict itself as well as perspectives of all involved is needed. The better the understanding, usually the more appropriate the response. The goal is a solution/outcome that is acceptable and sustainable (Galtung, n.d.).

CRSM facilitates moving away from the problem (past/present, unmet expectations) to the future (going beyond, ‘dis-embedding’ the conflict from where it is currently located and ‘embedding’ it elsewhere’ (Galtung, n.d., Boulding, 1988). When we access the future – where people could be or want to be, rather than where they were or are – we immediately move to a better place as far as conflict resolution goes. Once again, as argued by Johan Galtung, the more alternatives are presented and developed by people, the less likely they are to engage in violence, whether direct, structural, cultural, epistemological or psychological.

CRSM is helpful as it can map the conflict before a decision as to which style of conflict resolution is the most appropriate can be made.

As far as the conflict between Lyn and Pam is concerned, the mapping the director did was to create five scenarios, organised on a two by two axis wherein axis one represents the level of assertiveness (and level of concern for a principle) and axis two represent the level of cooperation (and level of concern for a relationship). Five possible courses of action resulted from the mapping:

After overviewing these possible strategies, the decision was made that some of them are either not going to work (e.g. ‘Lyn calls Pam Pam‘o’ half of the time’) or are going to create further conflict and friction (e.g. Directing or Avoiding). The director and her other co-workers present at the workshop then applied the Transcend Method’s axis to come up with a host of cooperating, collaborative, transcendent and imaginative ‘our way’ strategies. These are presented on the right side of the following table:

As is visible from the above paragraph, the Transcend method focuses on five possible outcomes as does the two by two axis, five scenario method. Both reframe conflict as an opportunity to create something new and improve relationships in the long-term. However, the Transcend method orders them differently so to enhance futures direction. Furthermore, Transcend method privileges ‘our way/win-win/cooperating’ approach and is useful when such strategies are considered the most http://asnu.com.au/levitra-20mg/ appropriate. At the same time, our way/cooperative strategies may not be appropriate if (1) the time to resolve the conflict is too short, (2) people are overloaded with ‘processing’, (3) the goals and issues of one disputant are undoubtedly wrong or (4) when the disputed issues are not really important for anyone. To further ascertain which of the five futures outcomes and styles (Style Matter, 2020) may be the most appropriate for the specific conflict, mapping via two by two axis, five scenario method is critical.

Armed with a host of strategies to resolve the conflict, the director returns to her office. She calls both Lyn and Pam to join her for a cup of tea. After they are settled and relaxed, her first question to them is: Do you want me to decide who is right and wrong or do you wish to resolve the conflict?

Stay tuned!

About the Author

Dr. Ivana Milojević is a researcher, writer and educator with a trans-disciplinary professional background in sociology, education, gender, peace and futures studies and Director of Metafuture. She has held professorships at several universities and is currently focused on conducting research, delivering speeches and facilitating workshops for governmental and academic institutions, international associations, and non-governmental organizations around the world. Dr Milojević can be contacted at ivana@metafuture.org

References:

Blank, Sam (2020) Managing Organizational Conflict. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Company.

Boulding, Elise (1988) Image and Action in Peace Building. Journal of Social Issues. 44(2), 17-37.

Galtung, Johan (1965) Institutionalized Conflict Resolution: A theoretical paradigm. Journal of Peace Research. 2(4), 348-397.

Galtung, Johan. (n.d.) Conflict Transformation by Peaceful Means (The Transcend Method). Participants’ and Trainers’ Manual. Accessed 22 January 2020, from https://www.transcend.org/pctrcluj2004/TRANSCEND_manual.pdf

Kraybill, Ronald S. (2001) Peace Skills: Manual for Community Mediators. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.

Milojević, Ivana (2008) Making Peace: Kosovo/a and Serbia. Journal of Futures Studies, November 2008, 13(2): 1-12. Available here: https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/132-A01.pdf

Style Matters: The Kraybill Conflict Style Inventory. Accessed 21 January 2020, from https://www.riverhouseepress.com/

Ury, William L., Brett, Jeanne M., and Goldberg, Stephen B. Getting Disputes Resolved: Designing Systems to Cut the Coasts of Conflict. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.

Peace Futures (PDFs)

List of available PDFs from Metafuture.org

 

Milojević, I. “Introduction.Breathing: Violence In, Peace Out (1-7), New Approaches to Peace and Conflict Series (Brisbane, University of Queensland Press, 2013), 1-7.
Milojević, I.“Making Peace: Kosovo/a and Serbia.Journal of Futures Studies (Vol. 13, No. 2, 2008), 1-11.
Milojević, I.“Gender, Militarism and the View of the Future: Students’ Views on the Introduction of the Civilian Service in Serbia.Journal of Peace Education (Vol. 5, No. 2, 2008), 175-191 (with Slobodanka Markov).
Milojević, I.“Reconciling Funny and Permissible: Can We Develop Non-violent Humour?Social Alternatives (Vol. 25, No. 1, 2006), 67-70.
Milojević, I.“Gender, Peace and Terrestrial Futures: Alternatives to Terrorism and War.Ljudska Bezbednost (Human Security), Thematic Issue: Gender and Human Security (Vol. 3, No. 2, 2005), 85-110. Previously published in Journal of Futures Studies, (Vol. 6, No. 3, 2002), 21–45.
Milojević, I.“Gender and the 1999 War In and Around Kosovo.Social Alternatives (Vol. 22, No. 2, 2003), 28–36.

Syria Scenarios: Thoughts on Transcending Violence (2012)

By Ivana Milojević

Syria Scenarios
1. Continuation of a totalitarian state/crackdown. President Bashar al-Assads’ regime continues, maintained by the security forces use of violence, repression and bloodshed also continue. This is reminiscent of 2009-2011 Iran or 1992 Algeria. This scenario will also lead to Syria’s international isolation and the impoverishment of the Syrian population. The scenario relies on power based methods used by the regime. It is likely short-term, but unlikely long-term, because it can be expected that it will ultimately create some implosion within the regime itself (i.e. internal coup).
2. Transition to a western style democracy. Removal of current regime (perhaps violent overthrow of the current leader/leadership, Iraq-Egypt-Libya style or a removal by local groups currently militarily fighting the regime), via a combination of non-physical sanctions and military intervention, support of the opposition, rebel fighting groups, followed by the reform of the security sector and state institutions. This scenario also relies on power based methods, used by the international community and local groups such as the Free Syrian Army. Within this scenario diplomatic efforts by the Syrian National Council and Friends of Syria Group extend further. This scenario is likely.
3. Transcend solution. Transition to a federation, local autonomy, Sunnis/Shias-Alawis, Christian and Kurds autonomy and networking across the borders, international/UN peacekeeping, protection of religious and ethnic minorities, no foreign bases and flows of arms, utilisation of local peace-keeping and peace-building initiatives. This scenarios relies on interest/needs based methods used by both local and international groups. Unlikely short-term, necessary long-term.
4. Chaos/spreading of war. Dispersal of violent conflict into Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan; mass migration of refugees into Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon. This scenario relies on randomness, ad/hoc and chance based methods. Also possible within this scenario is war by proxy, i.e. involvement of regional stakeholders supporting various factions within Syria. Some aspects of this scenario are likely, but a whole scale spreading of war into other states is unlikely at this stage.

Stakeholders
Citizens of Syria, Bashar al-Assads’ regime, Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party and minor parties in the coalition (National Progressive Front), (illegal) Kurdish political parties, Military of Syria, Syrian opposition – Syrian National Council, rebel forces, governors of muafazat (administrative divisions), local human-rights groups/civil society, religious groups and their leaders, International community (UN security council, The Arab League, GAFTA, state-based governments, militaries, Friends of Syria group, human-rights organisations).

Analysis and policy advice based on four scenarios
Without an acceptable exit strategy Bashar al-Assads’ regime is highly unlikely to be motivated to negotiate and arrest the current extreme violence and repression. It is also less likely they will agree to negotiate with groups that are currently using violent methods aimed at overturning the regime. The regime’s main political goal is to remain in power. Their main need is to survive and to not be humiliated. The investigation into finding possible allies within the current regime and security forces should be seriously considered. ‘Softer’ elements of this group should be sought. These groups are more likely to negotiate with groups that are currently not killing or injuring their associates. In order to locate these ‘softer’ individuals (more interested in compromising and negotiating), local/regional groups (political analysts, journalists, civil society, religious leaders) and the Syrian opposition (Syrian National Council) as well as the international community (The Arab League, GAFTA, Friends of Syria group and various human-rights organisation) should be consulted. The goal is to find allies within the regime itself, those who can perhaps influence negotiation between harder elements of the regime and the international community. These individuals/groups can also provide further advice on acceptable ‘exit strategy’ for the regime. As well, as the regime counts on the continuous support of China and Russia to veto the UN security council decisions, and perhaps even provide other types of support (including military one), the role of diplomats of these countries may also prove vital in negotiating potential exist strategy for the regime.

International community is already involved, and it is highly likely that it will continue to enhance this involvement. Therefore, Continuation of a totalitarian state/crackdown, which relies on no further external involvement, though likely in the short-term, is highly unlikely in the long-term. Preparations for the type of involvement should thus be enhanced. The most likely scenario for the international community’s involvement is Transition to a western style democracy. This scenario is highly costly and can potentially backfire. Any military intervention is going to create a humanitarian deterioration and increase already the high number of deaths in Syria. If the scenario comes into being largely via military involvement it can potentially facilitate the emergence of a protracted conflict, entrenchment of the regime, later retribution within Syria and against external nation-states and their citizens involved. There is also a danger of the violent conflict spreading and becoming regional. Other dangers involved with this scenario are the financial costs to the international community if military involvement is long-lasting, and, once embarked upon, it is highly likely that it will be. Further to this, new grievances and injustices may be created in the process, i.e. support of the opposition parties/stakeholders who may replace one injustice-violence-repression with an another one (ethnic cleansing, insurgence, legitimising criminal elements, increase in fundamentalism, breakup of areas, sectarianism). The Chaos/spreading of war scenario can be prevented via selective use of peace-keeping operations, the goal of which would be maintenance of negative peace (the absence of direct, physical violence and destruction). Cooperation between the UN peacekeeping forces and local governments’ security forces is needed if the likelihood of this scenario increases (some aspects of this scenario are already happening, i.e. situation in Lebanon, although whole scale spreading of war into other states is at this stage still unlikely). The Transcend solution scenario relies on proposing alternatives that are meeting the needs of all involved, are sustainable in the long(er) term, are creatively disembodying conflict from the current dynamics and into visions of desired/preferable futures. The premise within this scenario is that the more alternatives are outlined the less likely is the violent outcome. Some of these alternatives may include: 1) Involvement of as many stakeholders in decision-making processes as possible (including civil society/ NGOs/ humanitarian organizations, business leaders, prominent organisations and religious community groups); 2) Work on consensus between the majority of the Arab league, Turkey and Western nations on one side and Iran, Russia and China on the other, in regards to the initiatives based on the International law (i.e. UNGA Resolution 2625) and nonviolence; 3) Proposal for the amnesty for Ba’ath Party members and security forces, with the exception of top political leadership and those directly involved in mass killings; 4) The Establishment of truth and reconciliation commission; 5) The Establishment of mechanisms for local control of oil industry and oil exports; 6) The Establishment of mechanisms for protection of minorities, human rights in general and women’s rights in particular; 7) The Prevention of widespread retributions against Alawite community; 8) Support for Syria to join WTO and consider re-joining GATT; 9) Enhancement of humanitarian aid efforts, provision of access for humanitarian organisation; 10) Support for de-militarisation initiatives, 11) Gradual transition to a new, more open and democratic society coupled with national reconciliation, 12) The unification of the opposition around the principles of nonviolence and explicitly outlined vision of desired future, and 13) Making clear that any group that uses violence will not receive any support by the international community. The Transcend solution initiatives are necessary for long-term conflict resolution in Syria, but may be difficult to implement in the short-term. Nonetheless, they should be attempted, either as the main set of strategies or in some combination with the initiatives outlined within previous scenarios. In any scenario, arming of the opposition would not be advisable, given that it may increase death toll among the civilian population. Work on peaceful negotiated settlement with as many local and global stakeholders is the most preferable.

Making Peace: Kosovo/a and Serbia: Conflict Resolution Scenarios (2008)

By Dr. Ivana Milojević

This essay explores the futures of Kosovo/a and Serbia. It uses methods from scenarios and peace theory to articulate a different possible future for the region. The current trajectory promises hardship for all parties especially in the medium and long term.

Keywords: International conflict resolution, peace futures, transcend method, scenarios, Serbia, Kosovo/a

When there is a conflict between two ethnic groups, be it over territory, resources or values, there is also always a one sided take on the past and present. The one sided perspective Kosovars and Serbs have been using for decades, if not centuries, is akin to two deaf persons talking, without the ability to hear each other or lip read. It also reminds one of the ancient tale of blind men who attempted to describe an elephant via touching different parts of its body. The elephant is like a pot! asserts the one touching the head. No, like a, winnowing basket! says the one who touches the ear. Ploughshare! Says one touching the tusk. And so they went, describing the elephant as a plough (trunk), granary (body), pillar (foot), mortar (back), pestle (tail), or brush (tip of the tail). In a similar vain, Serbs exclaim: Kosovo is ours! This is where our nation was born, where our ancestral bones are buried and where our churches were built. No, Kosova is ours! exclaim Albanian Kosovars. We’ve lived here even longer and are now a vast majority. Oh well, they are all irrational barbarians, Balkan cavemen, exclaim the ‘civilised’. If it was not in Europe, no one would care, exclaim the postcolonial theorists. It is a result of a militaristic warrior culture, so assert peace theorists. No, a result of patriarchy, say the feminists. Unfinished nation state building process, is the discourse of the nationalists. One must respect international laws of national sovereignty, say the legalists. But the laws change when reality on the ground changes, say the realists. Change is the only constant, remind social change theorists.

The examples in the previous paragraph suggest that it is possible to theorise conflicts within and around Kosovo/a and Serbia in many different ways and via using many different discourses. Yet only some of the discourses are seen as legitimate and dominate. Both locally and internationally it is discourses of nationalism, realism and legalism that are most commonly used. Some are virtually unknown to the majority of the population, such as the feminist, postcolonial or peace movement ones. Some are stated explicitly (i.e. legalist discourse) and some are hidden, existing more at the myth/metaphor level (i.e. ‘Balkan’ identity discourse).

Another set of extremely powerful discourses are those of history, justice and righteousness. Most commonly it is these discourses that are used to propose ‘a solution’ to the current and long-term conflict over Kosova/o. And yet, paradoxically it is these very discourses that are also part of the problem.

History

History can be a fantastic resource to understand the present but when it comes to conflict situations it is too often used for further entrenchment. Coupled with discourse of nationalism, history can not be but about ‘cherry picking’ – i.e. selective use of dates that confirm ‘our’ victimisation and ‘their’ viciousness/violence/unfairness. Prior to the 1999 NATO bombing of both Kosova and Serbia there was a debate open to BBC listeners in terms of potential NATO intervention and also wider issues in relation to the conflict between Serbs and Albanians. One does not need to be a futurist to predict which dates which side was going to pick from history. Participants only talked about their own victimisation and only of some periods from history and not the others. To simplify, the debate went like this:

Albanian side

1999: 90% Albanians in Kosova. Serbs care “about mines not the shrines”.

1988: Revoked autonomous status. All rights abolished, police state introduced.

1945-1948:
Albanians sought refuge in Turkey, during the reign of Vasa Čubrilović, the head of Serbian Regime that prosecuted them.

1912-1941: expulsion of Albanians and Colonisation of Kosova took place by Serbian monarchy/army/government.

Expulsion of Albanians in the 19th century (e.g. 1877-1878).

Albanians originally Illyrians, lived in Balkan since ancient times, more then
2 000 years before Serbs “even set a foot in the Balkans”.

Serbian side

1999: Albanians represent 20% in Serbia; used to be 16% in former Yugoslavia.

Autonomous status only given in 1974. Demonstration for independence in 1981.

1968-1988: Expulsion of Serbs from Kosovo and ‘demographic warfare’ (emigration of Serbs + illegal immigration + high birth rate of Albanian population).

1941-1945: Italian occupation of Kosovo and creation of Greater Albania, expulsion of Serbian population.

1389: Battle of Kosovo, the beginning of 500 years of colonisation by Ottoman Empire.

Historical evidence that Albanians lived in Kosovo for only the last 600 years.
Serbs came many centuries before that.

Thus the question of ‘whom does the Kosovo righteously and historically belong to’ cannot possibly be answered using this type of discourse. For a solution that is fair to all sides involved, for an outcome that is acceptable and sustainable a range of futures rather than history oriented discourses needs to be applied. So instead of only asking ‘who was there first’, ‘who is the rightful owner’ and ‘what are the legal issues and implications’ questions themselves need to be reframed. But before doing so lets look at some possible futures scenarios.

Conflict resolution scenarios

In this section I employ four main approaches: power based methods, rights based methods, randomness/chance based methods and interest-based methods.

1. Power based methods ask the question of “who is the most powerful?”. It uses the rule of man, that is ‘fight it out, might is right’, overt violence (war, terrorism, individual and group attacks), and non-physical sanctions (alternative systems of governing, ultimatums, sanctions, psychological abuse, boycott and so on).
2. Rights based methods ask the question of “who has the best case?”. It relies on the rule of law, religious code or community norms. The resolution ultimately is through authority’s order, course of law or arbitrations.
3. Randomness/chance based methods asks the question of “who is ‘the luckiest’?”. These methods rely on the rule of chance, are random and ad hoc.
4. Interest-based methods ask the question of “what are the needs and concerns?”. It thus focuses on problem solving approaches, on ‘our way’ (collaboration) instead of ‘my way’ (forcing), ‘your way’ (accommodating), ‘no way’ (avoiding) or ‘half way’ (compromising).

Many of these conflict resolution methods have already been tried. In particular, power and rights based methods, by all sides involved, and also by the international community. This part of the world has had its share of wars, sanctions and group directed abuses, that is, its share of direct, structural and psychological violence. In 1999, power based methods were taken to a new high, with Milošević’s government attempt to the ‘ultimate solution’ of ‘not giving Kosovo away’.

So the world witnessed the expulsion of ethnic Albanians from their homes by Serbian military and para-military forces. Since in power based methods the game is not over ‘until the fat lady sings’ [“I nad popom ima pop”] the next stage involved NATO bombing of both Serbia and Kosova, effectively changing Serbian ‘my way’ to the ‘my way’ of ethnic Albanians. While this is difficult for Serbian nationalists to hear Kosovo has since 1999 effectively and de factol not been part of the Serbian territory. And yet, no long term, sustainable and acceptable solutions to all parties involved has been created either.

While currently, in 2008, there is a push for complete Independence by Kosovars (ethnic Albanians) have been successful in becoming independent, this independence is and a complete non acceptance of this solution by the minority of Serbs still living in Kosovo and also by the Serbian state. Most likely, if power based politics prevails, Serbs will eventually be forced to de facto accept a one-sided, one way solution that favours ethnic Albanians even if Russia and China continue to support the Serbian perspective.. But the negative consequences of this enforced solution may be too many, including the potential for nationalist, pro-militaristic and conservative Radical party to eventually seize the power in Serbia, even though they were unsuccessful in the recent election. . Its current leader Tomislav Nikolić explicitly stated that military intervention in Kosovo – if he is to have his way – would be a desired outcome should Kosovars proclaim full Independence. While this has not occurred, it is too soon to judge how history will play itself out, given the last decades or so of war. As stated by one Serb in a blog debating Independence of Kosovo: “Serbs waited for 500 years to free Kosovo and Metohija from Turks, we can wait again”. As well, even without military intervention and new war in the region consequences to both Serbian and Kosovar society will be many – from further focus on ‘ethnic cleansing’ to the creation of closed, conservative, xenophobic and totalitarian societies.

Another potential solution is of a compromise or a ‘half way’ approach. This approach involves some sort of a division and is currently (and after secession) preferred option of Serbians living in the northern part of Kosovo. This too is possible, although at this stage very unlikely. As well, this outcome too albeit it would fall short of the most desirable solution that focuses on the needs and concerns of all involved, that is future oriented and that has the potential to bring outcomes that are sustainable in the long term.

The following table summarises five possible scenarios: of one side prevailing (A1 or A2), gaining exclusive right to the territory through the rule of man, law or chance, or via being compensated for the loss (my way, your way); of no-one winning (sides taking turns to block the positive outcome for the other, ‘freezing of the issue’ as in during the last decade or via occurrence of various destructive violent based realities, killings, war, non-violent sanctions, or any other ‘no way’); of a compromise (some sort of a division of a territory, ‘half way’) and of a ‘win-win’ solution for all involved (collaborative, ‘transcendence’, ‘our way’ scenario).

Styles of Conflict Management

(based on Ron Kraybill’s work, Thomas-Kilman and Conflict Mode Instrument, David Ausburger’s and also Johan Galtung’s Transcend method)

In terms of these five potential scenarios for conflict management there is currently a formidable focus on ‘my way’ and power and rights based approaches. History in this context is not used as a ‘teacher’ but an additional tool to state one’s case.

Randomness/chance based methods, ‘no way’ and ‘your way’ approaches are, on the other hand, most commonly not seen as a solution and indeed, they are very unlikely to create one. This is because there is a high concern for goals (‘my’ Kosova/o) and ideals (it is ‘ours’) by both (all) sides involved. In addition to this goals and ideals axis, relationship axis can also be used to provide some explanations, specifically to also help explain overwhelming focus on ‘my way’ approaches. The sad reality is that neither the majority of ethnic Albanians living in Kosova and elsewhere nor the majority of Serbs (living in Kosovo, Serbia and elsewhere) currently care much about establishing quality relationships with the other group. Rather, the full on process of ‘othering’ has been going on for many years now, and also periodically throughout the history. This means that ‘the other’ is portrayed as ‘less’, ‘violent’, ‘wrong’, ‘evil’, ‘wild’, even ‘dirty’ and ‘disgusting’. And it doesn’t matter which side is using it, either explicitly or implicitly when talking and thinking about the other, the outcome is always the same: “‘We’ really do not want to deal with the other and it is the unfortunate fact that they live in our close proximity”.

To summarise these are the potential outcomes:

• Scenario 1 (My way, A1 wins) Kosovars proclaim secession. Most if not all states recognise independent Kosova. EU EU and the UN Security Council eventually recognised Kosova as a new state. Serbia in the end eventually accepts the defeat.

• Scenario 2 (Half way, compromise) Kosovo gets somehow divided, i.e. between North and South or between Serbian controlled enclaves where Serbian ‘minority’ lives and where Serbian monasteries are situated and the rest of Kosova.

• Scenario 3 (No way, withdrawal) The issue is frozen for another several decades. Kosova’s full ars decide to wait or they proclaim independence but this is stalled by international legal processes. Serbia uses its limited power to make life difficult for Kosovars, so that they too do not fully ‘win’. China and Russia continue to veto attempts by others to grant Kosovo full international recognition.

• Scenario 4 (Your way, A2 wins) Countries like Russia and, China and Spain pressure UN Security Council and EU Union proclaim to reject secession. International legal processes end up in ruling that Independence was an illegal act. that Kosovo officially becomes again a part of Serbian state and confirms and the full national sovereignty of Serbia and its territories is confirmed.

• Scenario 5 (Our way, transcendence) Kosovo/a and Serbia join a larger political entity i.e. European Union simultaneously. In this scenario Kosovo would officially remain part of Serbia but yet would be given de facto autonomy of a state. Whether certain territories are officially in Serbia or Kosovo becomes less important than good quality relations and high standard of living. Municipalities are also allowed self-determination rights. This is thus simultaneously globalising/unifying and localising/self-determination based scenario. Both Kosovo and Serbia agree to the treatment of minorities to be of highest standard and allow for the free movement of people, goods and services between these two territories, again based on EU standards. Kosovo/a becomes ‘an independent’ region within a broader association, a Truth and Reconciliation type process begins, refuges are brought back, local groups engage in various peace building processes, peace education initiatives are applied, psychological trauma counselling workshops take place, ecumenical peace work gets intensified and a sense of a common future based on positive neighbourly relationships starts to develop.

The most preferred scenario for Kosova Albanians is Scenario 1. The most preferred scenario for Serbian (identity, state) side overall is Scenario 4. For Serbian (now) left as minority in Independent Kosova scenario that is currently vocalised as the most preferred is Scenario 2. The most likely scenario at this stage is Scenario 3, or some version of it. This would mean that Scenario 1 has already partially occurred, that is, there is recognition by some states but certainly not by the UN security council. The most likely scenario is currently Scenario 1 or some version of it, i.e. However, Serbia and some other countries continued to not recognize an independent Kosova and to freeze relationships (through, for example, boycotts, sanctions, legal initiatives). This likely scenario may turn very costly in the end as the potential ground for further conflict(s) develops. These may include further and potentially violent conflicts between two political options in Serbia, between Serbian minority and Albanian majority in independent Kosova, between Kosova and Serbia and between other secessionist movements within states across Europe. As well, as further conflicts and division between members of the UN Security Council may also occur.

Futures

The purpose of designing futures scenarios is to make more informed choices in the present. Futures thinking is ultimately about inquiry into probable, possible and preferable futures, which we are creating today. For example, had various former Yugoslav ethnic, religious and ideological communities as well as politicians, journalists and other professionals gone through a process of envisioning different scenarios and its many intended and unintended consequences, would they still had made the same decisions they did back in the 1980s and 1990s? Had the international community anticipated how much the war in the former Yugoslavia was to eventually cost them (not to mention the human and environmental cost to the region itself) could things have been different? Most pre and post conflict nations do not engage in this process and thus behave reactively rather then proactively and constructively. We can see similar occurrences happening at the global level also – thus the short-sightedness, destructiveness and even plain stupidity of all sides involved in so call ‘war against terror’. And yet this short-sightedness and reactive ness has nothing to do with ‘human nature’ or inevitability of action-reaction-reaction… or trauma-further trauma-further trauma… mechanisms. This is because even though most societies do not currently engage in the long term thinking – non-action at the global level in regard to the climate change is but one example – some have done and continue to do so. History teaches us that it could be otherwise and that different choices with very different future outcomes could be made. While the former Yugoslav ethnic groups haven’t learned alternative lessons from history (such as that ‘violence breads violence’, ‘unjust solutions do not last’) South Africans it seems did. Thus the former Yugoslavia collapsed and in the process created hundreds of thousands dead people, millions of exiles, damaged the psychological makeup of those that remained and militarily polluted environment, to name but a few negative outcomes. South Africans who used the scenario planning process, on the other hand, created a Truth and Reconciliation commission. This is but one example. There would be many others, beyond the scope of this paper. The literature on peaceful societies, social movement and communication practices (i.e.research by B. Bonta, E. Boulding, G. Kemp, D. Fry, P. Ackerman, J. DuVall, D. Barash, J. Galtung, G. Paige, E.Jones, R. Haenfler, B. Johnson, M. Rosenberg, W. Glasser and many many others …) gives multitude of concrete examples of how historical and contemporary peaceful societies, groups and individuals dealt/deal with conflict in a positive and constructive manner. The whole field of Peace and conflict studies does the same. Other various individuals and groups engaged in the nonviolent social and political efforts also.

Crucial in these efforts is to move away from ‘the problem’ (detrimental historical stories, unmet expectations, violence that happened in the past) and to future alternatives that are positive, imaginative, creative and doable. The main questions should be: how to respond to the crisis/conflict in a way that is honest (acknowledges what is going on for all involved, beyond delusions and misconceptions) and compassionate (cares about all involved, about relationships with the other and about ‘our way’, ‘win-win’ solutions)? (For this approach see: www.transcend.com). What are some of the basic needs of all involved? What do Kosovars need? What do Serbs? What does the international community? How many future based solutions accommodating to those needs (rather than ‘wants’ and ‘shoulds’) can be created? Out of the multitude of these creative, positive and doable alternatives which ones are the most preferable for all involved? Who are the actors that are to be involved in this planning and visioning process? How many stakeholders beyond government officials, politicians and bureaucrats can be found? Who are the most marginalised groups – can they provide out of box thinking and solutions? Can representatives of various yet marginalised discourses, including peace oriented ones, feminist, futurists and representative of other ethnic groups also be included? Why leave it only to nationalists, lawyers and governments? Why not engage in truly democratic practice wherein voices of all involved are to be heard and given space?

For some of these questions to be engaged with, extensive community collaborative processes of envisioning desired, preferable futures are needed. Given the financial difficulties of both Serbia and Kosovo financial support by international community is also needed. Even though such processes would be by far the least costly than any other alternative there needs to be a will to start these processes + the means to achieve them. And while all that seems like a hard work it is necessary if future generations in this area are to live harmoniously, fruitfully and optimistically. Even if (or when) after Kosovo does secede, ethnic Albanians, Serbs and others still will need to continue living there, next to each other. Put simply, the neighbours are not going to go away, miraculously disappear or somehow get completely silenced. So it is the best bet for all involved to learn how to live together without hate, resentment and ‘othering’. Those living today do have a responsibility at the very least to leave to their children and grandchildren a world somewhat better to the one they inherited.

So why not inquiry of both sides into:
1. The positive aspects of the other group. Is their something, anything positive about the other? As there must be, no matter how small, lets build on that. How do we do so?
2. What do I (we) really want? What are our needs here? How do we distinguish those needs from what we were told our needs have to be or from the “unrealistic, wishful thinking”?
3. Can my trauma be heard by others? Can they recognise it without going into blaming and shaming?
4. What are some of the commonalities in our futures visions? Living in peace, harmony and abundance perhaps? How is this best to be achieved? Is the conflict between us helping our vision or hindering it?
5. What are some best strategies that we can implement here and now to bring forward preferable futures for all involved?

If not only the long-term but also immediate future are to be better than the past and present, different strategies, different thoughts, different discourses and different futures visions need to be chosen. For, as the saying goes, if one usually does what one has usually done; one is going to get what one has usually so far got. It would be nice if, for a change, things did change and positive, safe, healthy, inclusive, purposeful, imaginative, fun and abundant presents and futures were created. And even though at this stage this does not seem very likely such alternative futures too are possible.

Article by Ivana Milojević, Research Director www.metafuture.org, Lecturer in Peace and Conflict Studies, University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia. Emails: info@metafuture.org and imilojev@usc.edu.au

Published version: for the PDF click here

Is This Funny? Humour, Satire and (Non)Violence (2006)

By Ivana Milojević

“In its original historical meaning, a cartoon (from the Italian cartone, meaning “big paper”) is a full-size drawing made on paper as a study for a further artwork, such as a painting  or tapestry. In modern print media, a cartoon is an illustration, usually humorous in intent.” (Wikipedia, 2006)  

The current conflict over the freedom to publish cartoons featuring the Prophet Muhammad – or alternatively, the freedom to have your community and their views respected by others touches on perennial themes of what are the boundaries of freedom, if any. As debates for thousands of years by philosophers and ethicists testify, there are no easy answers here. No clear boundaries. One thing is for certain – any given freedom requires boundaries and implies responsibility to use the freedom wisely and for the greater common good.

This implies that any freedom – and by implication the boundaries of such freedom – is always negotiated, dependent on consensual agreements of most members of a community, society, civilisation. 

Contextualising humour – a personal history 

What is also negotiated is what constitutes humour, what is considered funny. I still remember my (male) colleges at the university where I worked at the time joking over the rapes of women in Bosnia. It is not just Serbs doing it they said, every side involved in the conflict (i.e. Bosnian Muslims, Croats, Serbs) was doing it, it just depends who is better in this task! Being the only female in the room, and being a feminist, and having spent painful months reading testimonies of raped women, I simply couldn’t find that ‘joke’ funny. In fact I was insulted and saddened over the lack of compassion exhibited. I felt diminished as a person and as a woman. How they felt about me not joining in and sharing a joke with the blokes I didn’t know, but it is possible that they thought I was too serious, not fun to be with, stern and burdened with ‘political correctness’. 

I also remember the question posed on Australian national radio some years back by a show host: Which section is missing from the feminist library? The humour section, was the ‘correct’ answer. To me, this was just nonsense. While I (and I guess many other people as well) do not enjoy jokes about stupid blondes, bosses and secretaries and doctors and nurses, I do enjoy a good laugh. I still recall going to the cinema to watch Baby Boom in 1987 and laughing out loud while listening to Diane Keaton re-telling the Cindarella story to her daughter. As I was the only one in the cinema laughing I started to feel all these eyes on me. I had to gather all my energies to stop. Luckily, a minute later there was a scene in which a near avalanche of snow falls on somebody after they open an entrance door and with all the other movie goers now laughing out loud also, I managed to release the accumulated energy through laughter. While I personally thought that particular scene was pretty stupid, I welcomed it as an opportunity to both express my self and ‘fit in’ at the same time. These days I do enjoy various forms of political satire – with Judy Horacek being my favourite political as well as feminist cartoonist.  

I’ve seen two of the twelve cartoons that have caused so much stir all over the world. I am not sure what to think of them. But that is beside the point as they are not mocking my lot and me.  All I know is that sensitised by my experiences of being a woman influenced by feminism and yet living in the patriarchal world (which continuously provides endless misogynous jokes that cause very little if any uproar), I am usually conscious of whether a joke may offend people whose religious worldviews and cultural beliefs I don’t share. I would especially not dare tell/repeat a joke about an Aboriginal person, whether in Australia, or overseas.  And I don’t think I’d be able to share in a ‘humour’ which would put down racial and cultural groups already vilified by western media and worldviews.

Verbal aggression 

But not everybody shares my view here. In fact, authors of The Penguin Book of Australian Jokes Phillip Adams and Patrice Newell argue in their introduction that with the exception of the jokes involving innocent plays on words, almost every genre of jokes circulating in Australia is fundamentally “an act of verbal aggression against a fear or an enemy, be it defiantly targeted or dimly perceived” (1995, p.13). Almost without exception, they continue, the jokes about Australian Aborigines are a “quintessential expressions of the hostility that accrues to blacks in our cities and country towns” (ibid.). So while a joke in isolation “may be a ‘thing of beauty and a joy forever’” (p. 12), jokes in bulk are “appalling, Almost without exception they deal in bigotry, sexism, racism, ageism and all the other politically incorrect isms. They clearly help people deal with their deep distaste for their own sexuality, their excremental functions, their foreign neighbours, their political masters and an infinite variety of things that go bump in the night.” (ibid. p. 12)  

Not only is the publication of cartoons part of verbal aggression, it goes much further then that, argues Johan Galtung (2006):

“To publish a caricature of the Prophet, or indeed any visual depiction, is among the most blasphemous acts that can be done to Islam…. Useful parallels: burning flags; using pictures of the King or Bible pages as toilet paper; tearing the Bible apart, throwing it in a toilet like guards do to the Qur’an in Guantanamo. These are acts of direct violence, using symbols as arms, a declaration of war, and war tends to be two-way traffic. Nobody should be astonished, or hide behind some human right to be surprised if there is counter-violence.”

Still, Adams and Newell argue that even though there may be a link between the unpleasant joke and the unpleasant social outcome (e.g. “anti-Semitic jokes providing the mortar for the bricks of the crematoria”) to ban them, to deny their existence, would be hopeless and possibly even dangerous, as bottled up resentments intensify rather than dissipate (p. 18). Furthermore, humour and jokes allow people the pleasure of laughter; a method of dealing with the darkness. They help subvert dogma and religious certainty (ibid.). And lastly, politically incorrect jokes, jokes about “racial or sexual relationships are the most honest of indicators about what we are really feeling” (p. 16). 

With the previous discussion in mind, how do we, as a global human community, decide on the boundaries of freedom and how do we negotiate what is funny? Cartoons that mock the Muslim Prophet are possibly an honest indicator of the way many people in the West feel these days towards Muslims and their faith. By the same token, the riots and burning of embassies in the Muslim world possibly are also an honest indicator about the way many people there feel about the West in general and about some actions by some Westerners (such as publishing a picture of the Prophet) in particular. Now that these honest feelings are out, the main question becomes: Where do we go from here? Can we find ways to negotiate the boundaries of freedom so that a freedom of one group does not infringe on the freedom of an another one? Should these freedoms be negotiated within the boundaries of nation states, cultures and civilisations or do we need a new global ethics for a global millennium? Can we develop some sort of a moral compass for humour devoid of bigotry, sexism, ageism, blondeism and homophobia? Can we begin joking and cartooning more and more about ‘us’ and less and less about ‘them’?  

Laughing at the self vs laughing at the other 

It is bad enough that more than half of Australian schoolchildren in Victoria view Muslims as terrorists, and two out of five agree that Muslims “are unclean” (Sydney Morning Herald, 5th February, 2006). The continual portrayal of ‘the other’ as barbaric, violent and strange in western media does nothing to reverse this prejudice. Rather, this orientalism (Edward Said) may directly contribute to both the growing Islamophobia in the west as well as to growing radicalisation of Islam elsewhere. The rise of contemporary Islamic fundamentalism, at the expense of Islamic nonviolent liberalism, is associated with ‘pride, cultural assertiveness and defiance and a search for authenticity’ (Zakaria, 2006, p. 14). Any attack on deeply held values within Islam, and any identification of the whole religion with the violent behaviour of some of its members will do little to help the forces of liberalism within the Islamic world. Instead “it will feed the fury that helps … [radical Islam] win adherents (Zakaria, 2006, p. 15). 

Thus while it would certainly be very unhealthy to live in a humourless society, it is important to realise certain guidelines and boundaries for humour in a contemporary multicultural, global society. In today’s society “to be monocultural is no longer sufficient to be literate” (Galtung, 2006). Rather, some multicultural knowledge and sensitivity beyond that is needed not to overstep norms of decent human behaviour” (ibid.).  For humour to be able to dispel various forms of darkness rather then reinforce them we need to negotiate and learn from ‘the other’ what/when/by whom is considered funny. 

I think this is important as I myself remember not being offended by a particular critique of Yugoslav people when published by local persons living in the former Yugoslavia  – in fact I always welcomed such self critique. But I often found deeply offensive some cartoons coming from those residing outside of these boarders that portrayed Yugoslav people using similar mockery. Especially as they were connected to particular politics (as in ‘lets go bomb the barbarians’), as humour and all the other forms of communication inevitably are. I also found deeply offensive cartoons that engaged with a nationalistic discourse during the break up of Yugoslavia – cartoons that were used to somehow diminish the other and enhance one’s own group feelings of self-importance and self-righteousness. 

There is a big difference between self-critique and the critique of the group external to the self – between laughing at the self/one’s own mob and laughing at/ stereotyping/ putting down the other. In the second case, I have come to learn that the joke is only funny if both parties involved think so.  

The role of the underlying worldview 

I strongly believe that the publication of these cartoons in Danish Jyllands-Posten was very little about the ‘ongoing debate on freedom of expression that we cherish so highly’, as argued by the editors. Or, that this issue ‘pits the strictures of Islam/Muslim Sensitivities’ against ‘Western freedom of expression/liberty’ (Zakaria and Roy, 2006, p. 13 and 16). This is because a “freedom of expression does not mean the duty of expression of whatever comes to one mind” (Galtung, 2006) which is “rather obvious” (ibid.). In fact, in these very societies where ‘freedom of speech’ is a right and a highly respected value, many “legal and social limits on expression” (Roy, p. 16) are already imposed and in place:

“Anti-Semitic cartoons would almost everywhere [in Europe] be liable to legal prosecution. More and more European countries have passed laws banning homophobia or protecting minorities from degrading insult. Would cartoons mocking dwarfs or blind people be published in respectable European newspapers? No. Why, then, the social acceptance for mocking Muslims, which sometimes verges on racism?” (ibid.)

The actions of editors of newspapers that published cartoons went “beyond valid norms for public space” argues Johan Galtung (2006):

“They broke into Muslim private space; like a thief into a private home … claiming freedom to move as a human right.”

So while I think that freedom of expression, speech and press is one of the greatest human accomplishments, these freedoms should be protected where and when possible and sensible but not ‘at all costs’.  

That higher principles take precedence over human life is one of the central tenants of society build on hierarchical and patriarchal values. The central tenant of a society build on values of centrality of human (and human – nature) relatedness is to take seriously concerns and interests of global human community, as well as the non-human community, future generations of people and other living beings.

A joke about a ‘three legged pig’ or ‘gorillas mating with Poms’ (Adams and Newell, p. 197-8) is only funny if you are not sensitised about the actual torture and suffering animals go through in the hands of humans, and/or if you are not ‘a Pom’ (British). The other day Australian ABC radio featured an interview with a cartoonist who fiercely defended freedom of speech telling Muslim protestors to ‘lighten up’. And to – if they can’t ‘take a joke’ – not read the ‘bloody newspaper’. The last question in the interview – the question of whether he ever felt that the cartoon went too far – and the answer to this question was, however, the most telling. The cartoonist felt deeply offended and was quite upset when some of his colleagues took him as a target! Some boundaries need to be placed, he said, and making fun of him should be out of bounds!  

Being a cartoonist, he made this last point in a funny way but still this is where a fundamental guidelines, some sort of a moral compass perhaps lies. As summarised brilliantly by Will Rogers (quoted in Loomans and Kolberg, p. 14) “everything is funny as long as it is happening to somebody else”. Adams and Newell would agree. They warn about entering the pages of Australian Jokes at own peril, as this will be done with a “knowing that every time you split your sides you’re having a laugh at someone else’s expense…” (ibid. back cover). 

Furthermore, for a racist joke to be seen as funny, racism has to be an underlying worldview, we have to have an ‘inner racist’ within us. The joke about the difference between a blonde and a shopping trolley (a shopping trolley has a mind of its own) is only funny if we still have some elements of sexism within us (as most of us, raised and living in patriarchal societies almost inevitably do).  

If the underlying worldview is the desire to negotiate – to work things out – with ‘the other’ you become sensitive about what you can say, when and where about such group. You are also careful about what type of behaviours you choose to engage in, preferring those that don’t reaffirm various forms of direct, structural, cultural, epistemological and ecological violence.  

If on the other hand, the underlying worldview is to ‘get back’ at the other – you publish cartoons. Or you torch embassies. Or you bash people of ‘Middle Eastern appearance’. Or you assault an Aussie lifeguard at Cronulla beach. Or, you engage in wars and insurgences. While certainly waging wars and publishing offensive cartoons should not be put at the same line of responsibility for eliciting violence – offensive jokes are indeed a relatively minor form of expressing ‘true feelings’ of dislike and lack of respect towards the other – there is also no doubt that they too are informed by a nationalistic, ethnocentric worldview. It is true that it is counter productive to ban such jokes. As long as the nationalistic, ethnocentric and ‘getting back at them’ discourse predominates such externally imposed measure will not be very successful. Without some sort of inner moral compass, the externally imposed ban would have the directly opposite effect to what it tries to achieve.  

It is only by the changing of the underlying worldview that a different taste for what is seen as funny develops. If still in doubt, contrast cartoons by, for example, Horacek and Polyp (from New Internationalist) with cartoons published in conservative western media. Or with a tsunami joke about sharks stricken with diarrhoea (from eating Thai food all week). Obviously, such a joke is only funny if you haven’t deeply sympathised with people that were killed and injured and/or if none of your friends and family members died in this disaster. Otherwise, and rightfully so, is the appropriate question: ‘How can people be so cruel!?’.   

Non-violent communication and humour 

If jokes that deal in ‘bigotry, sexism, racism, ageism and all the other politically incorrect isms’ are the quintessential expression of bigoted, sexist, racist, agist and politically incorrect/hierarchically structured and (using Riane Eisler’s term) ‘dominator’ society, what type of jokes would a fundamentally different society with a fundamentally different underlying worldview produce?  For example, what would humour be like in a society in which cultures of peace, compassion and non-violent communication are firmly embedded? 

I believe that in such a global peaceful, transcultural, “independent and sustainable but yet interconnected, interdependent and interrelated world” (Elise Boulding, 1990) communication would probably be based on the following principles: 

1. People own up their own ‘stuff’. There is an awareness of one’s own agenda, underlying worldview, assumptions, perceptions, fears, beliefs about self and others. 

2. There is an awareness and an understanding of what kind of actions may have certain (violence promoting) consequences. Thus, by choosing to engage in actions that may be offensive, you also accept the risk that such offence may cause you and ‘your own’ group distress further down the track, through the retaliatory actions of ‘the other’. 

3. There is an overall understanding that your speech can be part of the problem or part of the solution. That is, that your speech can be expression of verbal aggression or an expression of desire to negotiate and ‘work things out’. 

4. There is an acknowledging that absolute freedom does not exist, and that each right to __ has carries also the responsibility for __. 

5. Humour becomes a means of reducing inflated individual and collective Ego, thus you engage in laughing at self and your own group more often then in laughing at her/him/them. You also do the later, if you must, in a safe space – verbally, with ‘your own’, removed from the eyes and ears of her/him/them.

6. Reducing your own Ego also means that you don’t identify so much with certain dogmatic principles and rules that help define your own individual and collective identity. That is, you take offence against yourself and your own group as lightly as possible. Or, at the very least, you practice how not to exaggerate events out of proportion. You certainly don’t over-generalise – making ‘all of them’ accountable for the actions of some of their members. You don’t buy into the paranoid worldview in which ‘all of them’ are inherently against you and everything you stand for and hold dear. You become honest about what type of grievances you are really expressing, at any given moment. And, most importantly of all, you don’t respond to one type of (ie. epistemological, cultural) violence with even more intense one (ie. physical, direct violence). 

7. Humour becomes a means of destabilising centres of oppressive political, cultural, epistemological, economic and military power – and hopefully a means that can help create a world without institutionalised violence and social injustice. Apparently, the Muslim world is full of Mullah jokes, and as far as I know, portraying Mullahs is not seen as out of bounds by the majority of Muslims. Such a simple editorial intervention could have spared many grievances and the intense escalation of violence and still enable expression of the ‘freedom to speak’, to express true feelings. “A better education for a Danish cultural editor …, and the spiral of violence would not have been unleashed” (Galtung, 2006). 

8. There is a consultation with local groups, and various minorities (ethnic, religious, gender) in terms of the boundaries of free speech. Many Australian academics these days have come to accept research with Indigenous people as far superior than research about Indigenous people. Many projects do not take of the ground until local Indigenous communities are consulted. Certainly, Australian society is nowhere near a preferred vision wherein non-Indigenous and Indigenous people or ‘ethnic’ and mainstream Anglo-Celtic communities work in partnerships and wherein racism is the thing of the past. Still, such examples – relatively newly formed cultural ‘sensitivities’ show that there are other ways of doing things, there always are alternative ways of communicating non-violently. So instead of being “long on general principles [such as freedom of speech] and short on human sensitivity [not to insult and offend]” (Galtung, 2006) you do your best to learn from the other:

“Imagine you question the norm against the visual depiction of the Prophet. Something new stimulates curiosity, not animosity. So you ask a Muslim, tell me more, I want to know why. You learn. And understand that freedom of speech is not a license to insult.” (ibid.) 

9. You manage to differentiate between different humour styles, e.g. between a ‘Joy Master’, ‘Joke Maker’, ‘Fun Meister’ and ‘Life Mocker’ (Loomans and Kolberg, 1993. p. 15). While the Joy Master has mostly positive qualities, is inspiring, inclusive, warm hearted, innocent, humanising and healing (ibid.) Life Mocker has mostly negative qualities, and is cynical, sarcastic, exclusive, cold hearted, worldly and dehumanising (ibid.). The positive sides of a Joke Maker (e.g. wordplay, teaching stories, parody, instructive, insightful) and Fun Meister (slapstick, clowning, naive, imitative, entertaining) are to be balanced with their negative qualities (JM: insulting, biting, satiric, stereotyping, destructive; FM: ridiculing, dark humour, tragedy and suffering, hurtful, degrading) (ibid.). 

10. There is an awareness that ‘humour brings insight and tolerance’ while irony (as well as sarcasm, stereotyping, ridiculing, etc.) brings a ‘deep and less friendly understanding’ (Agnes Repplier, quoted in Loomans and Kolberg, p. 13). 

11.  Principles of non-violent communication are practiced in general, through the interrelation between empathic listening and honest expression, both inclusive of observations, awareness of feelings, and non-violent expression of needs and requests (The Center for Nonviolent Communication, 2006). 

12. There is an understanding of the fundamental difference between multicultural humour (e.g. Goodness Gracious Me series) and racist and orientalist bigotry and stereotyping that tries to pass as funny. 

13. Most importantly, non-violent humour creators and users consciously choose not to portray/see any form of violence as funny nor to use violence as a form of public mass entertainment. 

Whatever the societal principles, the main issue is what is the spirit behind humour? As argued by Roy:

“…for European Muslims, the affair is not so much a matter of what is permissible in Islam as it is about discrimination. Representing the prophet’s face, per se, antagonized them far less than his portrayal as a terrorist. …If the cartoons had portrayed the prophet doing good works, the proscription against representation would have been muted – if noted at all.” (ibid. p.16-17) 

So the important question is whether humour is used to put down others and get back at them, in one way or another, or to create new depths of mutual understanding and compassion? We are all in this – life, world – together and the emerging non-violent communication methods need to reflect that. Saying that something is ‘just a joke’ if it offends and hurts is no longer good enough, if it ever was.  

Our shared human condition, on the other hand, and the difficulties we all face as we go about our daily lives, provides us with endless material for laughing at all of us, at all of ours expense. Through humour conceived in such a way we could use it to ‘Always Look on the Bright Side of Life’, as Monty Python’s ironic take on British culture and life in general reminds us. 

Thus, creatively, compassionately and honestly dealing with the current conflict over values, freedoms and humour at the global level has become the necessity of our times. It is only by these means that we could possibly hope to avoid a further escalation of violence and also to protect all our freedoms. Unfortunately, in this global drama of negotiating the funny and the permissible dozens of people have already been killed. And that – by any indicators and within any context – isn’t funny at all.

 

References: 

Adams, Phillip and Newell, Patrice (1995) The Penguin Book of Australian Jokes, Penguin (place missing).

Boulding, Elise (1990) Building a Global Civic Culture: Education for an interdependent world, Syracuse University Press, Syracuse, NY, USA.

Eisler, Riane (1996) Creating Partnership Futures, Futures 28 (6-7) 563-566. Also Center for Partnership Studies, http://www.partnershipway.org/

Galtung, Johan (2006) The Host Country/Immigrant Relation: A Proposal For a Contract- With Some Implications for Denmark-Norway vs Islam, speech given at the Aula de Cultura, CAM, Benidorm 30 de enero de 2006 (in Spanish). English version received through email listserv of www.transcend.org.

Loomans, Diana and Kolberg, Karen (1993) The Laughing Classroom: Everyone’s Guide to Teaching with Humor and Play, H J Kramer, Tiburon, California, USA. 

Roy, Olivier (2006) Holy War, Newsweek, 13th February, 2006, pp. 16-17.

Said, Edward (1978) Orientalism, Routledge & Kegan Paul, London,UK 

Sydney Morning Herald, 5th February, 2006, http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/schoolchildren-cast-judgements-on-muslims/2006/02/05/1139074109950.html.

The Centre for Nonviolent Communication, http://www.cnvc.org/  

Wikipedia, online encyclopedia, 2006, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cartoons

Zakaria, Fareed (2006) Islam and Power, Newsweek, 13th February, 2006, pp. 13-15.

 

Adapted from: Milojević, I. (2006) Reconciling Funny and Permissible: Can We Develop Non-violent Humour? Social Alternatives, 25(1), 67-70.

Alternative Futures of War (2005)

By Sohail Inayatullah

“War is the darkest spot on humanity’s history.”
P.R. Sarkar*

Asking if war has a future may appear ludicrous, given that the 20th century was one of the bloodiest ever, and that scores of low grade wars are currently maiming and killing countless thousands. You may wonder why even ask? Haven’t we always had war? Won’t we always have war?

At times, however, questioning can lead us toward a different type of analysis, possibly even giving us the means to create a future without war. To change the future, we must be able to imagine a different future. As a Lithuanian leader recently said (paraphrasing): 75 years ago, it was impossible to imagine a post-communist world. Then twenty years ago, we could imagine it, but we did not understand how it could practically come about. Now, we are a proud and free part of the European Union. (1)

The impossible can become the possible, first by imagining, then by creating a plausible processes, and bravely and persistently taking necessary steps. So, we must raise the question – Does war have a future? We must challenge the notion that just because war always was, it always has been. Writes Fred Polak:

Many utopian themes, arising in fantasy, find their way to reality. Scientific management, full employment, and social security were all once figments of a utopia-writers imagination. So were parliamentary democracy, universal suffrage, planning, and the trade union movement. The tremendous concern for child-rearing and universal education and for Garden Cities all emanated from the utopia. [It] stood for the emancipation of women long before the existence of the feminist movement. All the current concepts concerning labor, from the length of the work week to profit-sharing, are found in the utopia. (Polak, The Image of the Future, 1973, 137-138.)

Conceiving, of course, is only part of the challenge. We need to go on to create and implement social invention. Specifically, we need to devise new methods to resolve international conflicts. We need to challenge the entire notion of armed conflict, as conducted by powerful governments and weaker organizations.

To do so, we need to first analyze the multiple causes of war. Four levels of analysis can help. First is the level of the litany, the unquestioned “truth” said over and over, presented daily on video and TV. The second is the level of the system, the historical economic, political, environmental, and technological reasons. The third is the deeper cultural perspective, the worldview we live in. This is hard to see, as we breathe it. Just as fish do not know they swim in water, we can rarely see our worldview, unless we begin a process of deep questioning. Finally, is the unconscious story, the group consciousness or the deeper myth.

1. The Litany. In thinking about war and peace, the superficial analysis usually contends that If we can find and kill all the bad guys, and also destroy all the rogue nations, everything will be ok. From James Bond to Arnold Schwarzenegger to Steven Segal, the plot is predictable. But as Mike Myers’s satiric movie character Austin Powers suggests, evil may not only be out there, but it may be also in us. We are often – knowingly or unwittingly – complicitors in evil. Hence, this vastly over-simplifying approach has awesome limitations.

2. Systemic Analysis. The focus here is on historical, economic, political, environmental, and technological reasons for war and peace. For example, proponents emphasize the need to rapidly transform the arms export industry, as by making the export of killing products illegal. This would have great benefit for the whole world, and sharply reduce profits of leading arm manufacturing nations (the USA, China, Britain, Israel and other rogue armament countries). (2) This process has begun with nuclear arms, and while there are many problems ahead, illegal shipping of nuclear arms appears to be diminishing dramatically.

However, any arms ban would not work unless there were security guarantees for those states afraid of aggression. That is, states import arms because they are afraid of enemies within the nation and without (and use this fear to hold on to and extend their power). As well, the military elite in all states becomes accustomed to living in a shopping plaza with endless goodies. Global disincentives would be needed as well.

A world governance structure that could provide security through a type of insurance scheme or through a global police system may help to reduce the demand aspect of global weapons. The supply option would require big states to end their addiction to easy money. Indeed, “Every year the most powerful nations of the world spend over 1,000 billion dollars in weapons. The dollars saved could be spent on forming peace activist forces trained in mediation and peace-keeping skills.” (3)

Transformation must occur most urgently in the global economy. Poverty, and more accurately, relative deprivation knowing others just as talented as you and your society are doing financial better because of unfair advantages are among the deeper causes of conflict and war.

We must create a Glocalization Movement to help end poverty, and see to it that wealth circulates with more justice than at present. Glocalization attempts to keep the benefits of globalization (freer movement of ideas, capital, people) along with the benefits of the local (keeping money circulating in your own area, ensuring that while there is growth there is distribution as well). (4)

3. Worldview. Other dimensions of society than the military-industrial complex also need transformation, especially our worldview. At present, it helps create the conditions for war. Moments of national military trauma become part of our identity creation. War creates a national consciousness we know who we are through battles with others. Whether it is the Star Spangled Banner and the victory of the American colonists over the British, or the defeat of Serbs in Kosovo, war defines who we are. (5)

But this is not the only form of possible self-identification. We can define ourselves differently. A planetary project whether transforming global warming or creating a global governance system or ending poverty or even space exploration seems more likely to help us find deeper reasons for being than available in warfare. We also need peace education that celebrates ahimsa, that celebrates moments of transcendence, that teaches us how to mediate conflict and that celebrates the challenges humanity has faced (not any particular tribe within it) and will continue to face. (6)

4. Myth and Metaphor

Underneath this system of war is a defining Group Consciousness, a deeper culture. Challenging the idea of war as natural means challenging three pillars, or the thought that life is about domination, survival of the fittest, and ego-identity.

The first pillar is patriarchy, or dominator-oriented politics. Truth, nature, and reality are defined in dominator, rather than in partnership terms. What matters most is who is above and who is below. We see the world in terms of feeling superior or feeling inferior. Cultures are seen as evolved or primitive, civilized or barbaric.

Second, evolution is seen as survival of the fittest, and thus war is seen as just since the fittest have survived – instead of as an evolutionary failure. Victory thus justifies evolution. However, it is cooperation among bacteria that has led to our evolutionary development. Cooperation at all levels maximizes our survival and thrival possibilities. (7)

Third, identity is defined in terms of ego attachment to land, race, and language. Thus identity is seen in terms of geo-sentiment (my land, love it or leave it!), race (my color is superior) or linguistic politics, and not in more universal terms. Religion is seen as exclusionary, for the chosen few, or those with special access to the transcendental, and not for all. While this may have been necessary in tribal politics to identify “stranger danger,” there are no reasons for this today at the global level.

How can these views be challenged? First, by asserting cooperation can lead to mutual learning.  Second, by asserting evolution is not merely about survival of the fittest, but involves three additional aspects: An attraction to the sublime, even spiritual; an ability to be guided through human reason and action; and an ability to become ethical. And finally, by asserting we can develop a planetary Gaian consciousness that sees the planet as living. We live in symbiotic relationship to our hosts, and we need to nurture the planet, as she nurtures us. We can create our destiny. (8)

Inner and Outer, Individual and Society.

Along with our four levels of analysis, we can analyze the futures of war with a simple two by two table approach. On one axis is from inner to outer, and on the other axis is individual and collective. From this table, we can different types of strategies emerge. The challenge is to engage at all levels: an individual’s inner self (meanings); an individual’s outer self (behaviours); society’s inner self (myths and collective unconscious); and society’s collective outer (structures and institutions).

Using this type of analysis, there are many activities and strategies we can engage in, and most importantly, begin to imagine and create a world without war.

Transforming the Field of Understanding

Prior to the war on Saddam Hussain and Iraq, Robert Muller commented that he was not depressed at what might happen, since millions were in fact waging peace. (9)  Yes, it was unlikely Bush and Hussain were capable of a peaceful and just resolution, but their worldviews had motivated millions to express frustration, and to call for, indeed, meme a new world.

Memes are like genes but focused on ideas. Memes are ideas that pass from person to person, become selected because they offer us advantages in our thinking, in our survival and thrival. Certainly, war as a meme, I would argue, has reached its limits in terms of offering longer lasting solutions to Earth’s problems, I would argue.

Another world is possible! We need a field that begins the process of moving beyond the world of hawks and doves. And a world that recognizes that multiple traditions are required to transform war and peace. Within our histories are resources of peace, whether Islamic, Vedic, Christian, Buddhist or secular.

But first we must challenge the litany of war. Unless it is contested, we will assume that because it is, it always will be. The next task is to challenge the systems that support war: the military-industrial export complex; national education systems; our historical identities. We also need to challenge the worldviews that both support and are perpetuated by war: patriarchy and survival of the fittest. Ultimately, we need a new story of what it means to be human.

Alternative Futures

What then are the alternative futures of warfare? Four standout as plausible possibilities, and seriously challenge us. First,War now and war forever. We cannot transform war since humans are violent and greedy for land, territory and ideas. Witness History. Whether it is capitalists ruling, or prime ministers and priests or warriors and kings, or workers revolting, it is war that results and is used by each social class to maintain its power.

The nature of war changes depending on which social class is in power (worker, warrior, intellectual, or capitalist) and it also changes depending on the nature of technology. Most recently it has been air power with real time surveillance that has dominated. Nano-technology will probably expand humanity’s capacity to become both more destructive and more precisely targeted. The capacity of one leader to hold a population hostage, as with Milosevic, Pol Pot, and Saddam Hussain, is likely to decrease dramatically. However, at the same time, the capacity of any person to hold a nation hostage will increase.

Second, War becomes ritualized or contained. Generally, in this future scenario, we move to a peace culture, but periods of war remain. However, these are rapidly contained or conducted with the authority of a global governance system. War remains an option, even if a less desirable one. As well, war is used by those challenging the world governance system, and by areas not totally integrated by the world system. War could even become ritualized, either conducted through virtual means or via sports. In such ways, aggression is contained and channelled.

Third, War itself changes. Genetic engineering and other invasive technological procedures search for the “aggression gene” with the hope of eliminating the behavior that leads to war. Some states, however, reserve the right to manipulate the “aggression” gene to make even fiercer fighters. Deeper efforts to transform systems of war are not attempted, as nations are unwilling to let go of their war-industry profits. Efforts to tame war wind up maintaining the status-quo.

Last and most idealistic among the four possibility, War disappears. It does so because of changes in the system of war (the military-industrial complex), in the worldview that supports war (patriarchy, capitalism, identity politics) and in the nature of what it means to be human. We take an evolutionary step toward full humanness. Proponents note we have had periods in history without war. Moreover, humans have begun to imagine a world without war. (10)

Conclusion 

Which of these futures is most likely?  Historical experience suggests the first scenario – war now and forever. However, the future informed by new readings of evolutionary theory maintains war disappears is also possible. At the same time, since new ideas are often taken over by structures of power and those in power, we should not be surprised by the containment of war scenario or even the geneticization of war. In short, all four options must be taken seriously.

What, then, as creative shapers of a more desirable future, should we do? I recommend we remain hopeful about creating a future without war and act across our lives to achieve it. We must also work on achieving peace within. We must employ mediation and conflict resolution in all of our institutions. And we must never stop struggling against social systems and worldviews that help create wars.

Notes

1. Interview on Australia National Radio. August 2003

2. However, given current economic dependence on arms export (even as with tobacco exports), nations should be given a decade or decades to overcome their addiction to easy arms money. Of course, there would still be illegal arms smuggling but at least the large states would not be condoning it. Thus, certainly realizing this will not be easy. It would require international treaties that could be verified. But why might this occur? As with other regulations, pressure from lobby groups, social movements and nongovernmental organizations might lead to new arms sales regulations. In addition, a global regime is possible if a player wants advantage, that is, because of too many arms dealers, a particular player, like the USA intervenes to regulate the market so that it can enhance its own trading at the expense of others. It also may be realized in a step by step fashion, that is, certain arms are banned – land mines – as a first step, and then slowly other arms are banned.

As well, as sticks, there are carrots in the emerging peace business. Peace business is based on the ideas of Johan Galtung and Jack Santa-Barbara, Ph.D. trained as an experimental social psychologist, founded a company that became the largest of its kind in Canada, and won the “50 Best Privately Managed Companies” award in 1997. He has founded a new institute to promote integration of ecological and economic goals in government decision making. http://www.humanities.mcmaster.ca/~mpeia/projectteam2.html

3. Julio Godoy, “Political Obstacles Slow Path to Goals,” Other News – Roberto Savio / IPS <soros@topica.email-publisher.com.

4. Sohail Inayatullah, theme editor, Global Transformations and World Futures, UNESCO Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems. Oxford, EOLSS Publishers, 2002.

5. Hoping for an invasion from Mars as in Mars Attacks and endless other movies only continues to create an us-them.

6. We need to re-write textbooks in nearly every nation and move away from the Great Man or Dynastic theory of macrohistory. Creating alternative futures requires not only requires a rethinking and reacting of the present but recovering our lost and alternative histories. Just as there are many futures ahead of us, there are different histories to explore. This is exploring history from other perspectives that of a worker, the wife or mother of a killed warrior, a tree, ice, other cultures, and even technologies histories such as that of the toilet. What we think, write about, remember repeats the paths trodden in history, and thus, creates the paths we are likely to travel in the future. The work of Riane Eisler is exemplary – www.partnershipway.org. Also, see, Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah, eds, Macrohistory and Macrohistorians. Wesport, Ct, Praeger, 1997. Sarkar, for example, argues there are four types of history – economic, peoples, intellectual and dynastic.

7. http://www.westbynorthwest.org/artman/publish/printer_340.shtml. Article by Lynee Twist, March 14, 2003

8. See the writings of biologist Lynn Margulis and evolutionary biologist Elisabeth Sahtouris,  See also David Loye’s alternative reading of Darwin  – Darwin’s Lost Theory of Love. San Jose, Iuniverse, 2000. Also, see, David Loye, ed., The Great Adventure. New York, State University of New York Press, 2004.http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/n-Ch.7.html. Elisabeth Sahtouris, Earth Dance: Living Systems in Evolution. San Jose, Iuniverse.com, 2002. This remains among the lasting messages of the Star Trek series, especially in its latest incarnations.

9. This worldview transformation is a change in two main symbols we use to metaphor war. This is the hawk and the dove. Can there be a third space, another story that can represent a world without war but with justice? Coming up with a new metaphor will not solve the issue, but our failure to do so highlights our conceptual problems. Perhaps looking for stories in our evolutionary past up and down the food chain – is not the way to go. Creating a post-war world may mean looking to the future for ways out.

10. To create the new means being able to first conceptualize it. Next is finding the means to make the impossible, possible. The last stage is merely one of details. The details in this case are about creating a culture of meditation and of conflict resolution. This means making it central in schooling at one level, and beginning to create the process of global-local governance, where war becomes impossible.

References.

For more on Sarkar, see Sohail Inayatullah, Understanding Sarkar: The Indian Episteme, Macrohistory and Transformative Knowledge. Leiden, Brill, 2002.

Fred Polak, The Image of the Future. Amsterdam, Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, 1973, 137-138.

Be Alarmed, Be Very Very Alarmed (2003)

Reflections on anti-terrorism kit send by Commonwealth Government of Australia

By Ivana Milojević

Written 5th February 2003

I still remember vividly the short feature presentation I watched several times during my schooling. It was called “Yellow Mini Morris” and it went like this: a couple, a blond beautiful woman and a tall handsome stranger arrive to the (former) Yugoslavia from western Europe. They pretend to be ‘tourists’ admiring ‘our’ beautiful scenery. They drive around in their lovely yellow car apparently taking pictures of themselves. But all along, they were in fact taking picture of our airports, bridges and other vital infrastructure. The message was: never trust foreigners, no matter how beautiful or well dressed they are. Be aware of anybody acting suspiciously. This especially includes anyone taking photographs. Also watch out for those travelling in a small yellow car. Driving past bridges, factories, electricity and gas companies. Being beautiful, blond or tall. Wearing designer outfits. And, especially, be aware and be suspicious of western Europeans!

In retrospective, and in the light of the fact that NATO did bomb my native town and destroyed all its three bridges over Danube some twenty years later, the Yellow Mini Morris story might not be as ludicrous as it seems. In fact, one could go as far as to suggest that xenophobic communist regime was right to teach us about all the treats coming from outside and endangering our then way of life. After all, many parts of former Yugoslavia will for many more years to come have to deal with not so nice remains of NATO liberation from ethnic cleansing and totalitarian regimes, such as depleted uranium polluted soil, diseases brought by foreign soldiers and the newly formed American military bases.

Were xenophobes, totalitarian dictators and nationalists thus right when warning about the treat from ‘the Other’? Or was it that the discourse they created in itself helped create an environment conducive of suspicion, therefore fear, therefore obsession with protecting oneself, therefore bad diplomacy, therefore ‘pre emptive defence’, therefore reactive response, therefore various military operations, therefore several full blown wars?

Yet again I find myself in a country where the government warns us to be alert (but not alarmed!) so as to help protect ‘our’ way of life. It is as if I never really left a society based on suspicion and fear and never really came to supposedly democratic, multicultural and ‘open’ one. Not surprisingly, apart from experiencing some strange déjà vu that started a couple of months earlier when I was asked for my I.D. for (acting suspicious by) sending a parcel overseas, I have in addition started experiencing a serious case of Post Traumatic Suspicion Disorder and am in a desperate need of consulting ‘a health professional’. But perhaps the need for counselling could be averted if only our Prime Minister could take his time to reassure me over several things.

First, that I should not be suspicious of his desire to maintain peace. That the $1.4 billion spent to strengthen Australia’s counter-terrorist capability, part of which includes some of my tax money, is NOT going to be used for destroying someone else’s lives, soils, bridges and places of residence. That the timing of sending this kit so as to correspond with preparations to attack Iraq IS coincidental.

Second, that upgraded resources for the ‘Australian Secret Intelligence Service’, ‘new state-of-the-art surveillance systems’, possibility for the Prime Minister to ‘take strategic control in a national emergency’ and people being encouraged to spy on and dobb in each other, are NOT the tell signs of Australia becoming a totalitarian state.

Third, that ‘television, radio, newspapers and the internet’ will NOT be used by government to control the public opinion.

Fourth, that additional money WILL be given to the national and state Anti-Discrimination and Equal opportunity commissions so to better respond to increased harassment of ‘certain’ community and/or religion that has already been happening since the horrific events of September 11th.

Fifth, that the government WILL say sorry to the Indigenous population of Australia so as to stop projecting forward what had been done backward (physical violence and murders, destruction of one’s way of life).

Sixth, that xenophobes and racists individuals calling themselves Australians WILL be deported to an isolated island in the Pacific, as they clearly do not fit the profile of ‘friendly, decent, democratic’ Australians’ who ‘embrace people, religions and languages from every corner of the world’.

Seventh, that Australian children are NOT going to suffer from living in an environment where an overly dangerous and threatening view of the world is being communicated to them. Alternatively, that in addition to the increased availability of free counselling, he WILL provide stockpiles of herbal, homoeopathic and allopathic anti-depressants and anti-anxiety medications for many more generations to come.

Eight, that he WILL insist on disarming ALL nations from dangerous weapons of mass destruction, including the most powerful ones as well as those that have already used them on a defenceless civilians and nature.

Ninth, that he WILL send us yet another kit, with another budget outlined so as to address pollution, global warming, chemical spills, climate change and other serious treats to our current way of life.

Basically, what I am looking for is for prime minister to reassure me that the suspicion of ‘the Other’ won’t yet again lead to fear, therefore to bad diplomacy, therefore to pre emptive strikes, therefore to a full blown war. That a history won’t repeat itself. That we will resolve our (actual, perceived and/or potential) conflicts and suspicions of each other through trust, cooperation, dialogue and most importantly, by peaceful means. That we will work towards letting go of our personal and communal desire to control everything and everybody. That we will get our priorities right.

I sincerely look forward to the prime minister finding time in his busy schedule to address some of my concerns. But if he stays numb and counselling fails to respond I believe I would still have several options to improve my mental health. First, quickly consult my new fridge magnet. Then go and look for the location of our electricity switchboard. If that fails to reassure me, I can call the Energex. Or the local Vet. Check myself into nearest hospital. Inundate my kids school’s administration with calls. Harass my neighbours. Stalk our local council members. And, last but not least, I can always go and hang out by the gas meter. So, no worries mate, I’ll feel safe again.

Gender, Peace and Terrestrial Futures (2002)

Alternatives to Terrorism and War

Ivana Milojević*

The University of Queensland, Australia

The purpose of this article is to explore alternative discourses and alternative strategies to the present ‘war on terrorism’ as well as to terrorism itself. The article focuses on the question whether conflict resolutions based on military means are successful and argues that any answer inevitably relies on underlying worldview, vision of the future and the temporal (short-term/long-term) framework.

“In order to reduce evil, people may have to invent new social mechanisms and ethical systems” (Wendell Bell, 2000).

“It is remarkable that even the most warlike people can imagine gentle and peaceful ways of living” (Elise Boulding, 1998). 

 “Those for whom peace is no more than a dream are asleep to the future” (Jack DuVall, 2001).

Keywords: international relations, terrorism, world futures, patriarchy

*Direct correspondence to Ivana Milojevic, School of Education, The University of Queensland, Australia, E-mail: ivanam@mailbox.uq.edu.au

What is wrong with military conflict resolution?  

For the second time in two years, the military might of the USA has led a military campaign that appears to be working. Milosevic is at The Hague, the Taliban has retreated and leaders of the free world seem to be saying that dictators, totalitarian governments or global terrorist networks will no longer be tolerated. Does this mean that the majority of writings on peaceful conflict resolution have somehow become redundant? More specifically, is it possible to argue the relevance of usually long-term oriented efforts towards peaceful conflict resolution in a ‘reordering-and-compression-of-time’ era? What can they offer to feed the ‘hyper-reality’ that is created by a globalised media, given that the effects of these efforts are usually more subtle then dramatic? And most importantly, in our hybrid, relativistic and postmodern times, have we forever lost the argument of a peaceful conflict resolution’s ‘higher moral ground’?

While it is impossible to provide easy and comfortable answers to these difficult questions, it can be argued that they are somewhat focused on the wrong issues. That is, they cannot be tackled before understanding that whether military or peaceful conflict resolution is seen to ‘work’ is predominately a matter of conviction. Or, to put it in more scholarly terms, different understandings of origins of conflicts and how they are to be resolved is a matter of a perspective, paradigm and discourse as well as of a particular history and a worldview. As the debates in the rich field of International Relations demonstrate, at any point in time a diverse range of “alternative, overlapping and competing” (Burchill and Linklater, 1996:8) theoretical positions is on offer, all carrying with them a distinct approach and focus. For realists and neo-liberals, military involvement is successful as it produces concrete evidence of shifts in military and political power relations. For Marxists and critical theorists, war efforts are misplaced: we should be addressing structural inequalities and focus on waging a war against poverty. For pacifists, the gain achieved by military victory is only temporary. They object to violence because, as Gandhi so eloquently put it, even when it appears to do good, the good is only temporary and the evil it does is permanent.

Given that the current global hegemonic discourse is predominantly based on neo-liberal and rationalist theories, it is this worldview that helps form ‘common sense’ notions of ‘success’ and ‘failure’. However, as feminist authors in the field of International Relations such as V. Spike Peterson, Cynthia Enloe, Jan Jindy Pettman, Rebecca Grant, Kathleen Newland and others have shown, a different worldview suggests different solutions to conflicts between and among states. For example, if the impacts on environment and human relatedness are included in the analysis different understanding on whether military solutions work emerges. That is, if environment and human relatedness are protected and enhanced, the solution is successful. On the other hand, if they are damaged then it obviously is not.

The latest military action by the USA has been provoked by a violent and murderous attack which occurred on American soil. There is nothing wrong with people demanding perpetrators brought to justice. Except that those directly involved are already all dead. But it is also justifiable to attempt to bring to justice those that have either organized or in any other ways facilitated these horrible attacks; except that retaliation has brought other grievances and increased the overall death toll. We do not really know what motivated those men to fly airplanes into WTC buildings and Pentagon on September 11th. We can only guess. One possibility is that they sought to damage symbols of American economic and political power because of the damage this power does to others. Another guess is that they were waging some sort of holy war against the Christian West because of the damage it has done to Islam. Yet another guess is that their action was also facilitated by their desire to die as martyrs, achieving a one-way direct ticket to heaven. But what we do know with higher certainty is that they believed that higher goals justify the sacrifice of some human lives. We are also a bit clearer on what motivated the USA to conduct its military campaign in Afghanistan, because their representatives communicate to us through global media. What we are told is that Afghanistan has been bombed because its then government cooperated with and protected terrorists. And we are yet again reminded that sacrifice of some human lives is necessary.

While there are important and crucial differences between these two ‘players’ in the current conflict it seems that both establishments operate from a similar paradigm and a similar worldview. Both accept the category of ‘collateral damage’ when it comes to the lives of those seen and defined as the other. Both seem to worry more about strategic goals rather then the impacts their actions might have on the system as a whole. Both believe that violence is the only language ‘the other’ will understand and consequently promote violent and military solutions to the problem. Both promote violent hypermasculinities, either overtly or covertly, contributing towards the creation, maintenance and further enhancement of global culture of war. And, with their either total exclusion or tokenistic inclusion of women’s and/or feminist’s perspectives, both are deeply patriarchal.

There is no doubt that, at least at the level of litany and obvious, violence ‘works’. In that sense, despite all the efforts not to ‘give in’ to terrorism, terrorist actions do ‘work’. The terrorist action on September 11th produced not only very concrete results in terms of destruction it has created, it has also brought attention to all range of problems – from structural inequalities to American involvement in the Middle East. But terrorist actions were ‘successful’ in other ways too. In fact, one of the strongest impacts terrorist actions have brought with them is their counter-productivity. Destruction of symbols of American (or Western?) economic and political power further hurt the most vulnerable. Those that were on the receiving end of structural violence prior to the attack have suffered even more as a result of it. The exacerbated recession, the redirection of resources towards military and the redirection of aid for victims of retaliatory military campaign have all further hurt those in whose name the terrorist actions were possibly taken. If men who hijacked and crashed the planes thought they were helping Islam, again they could not be more wrong. Governments throughout Islamic world have not been overthrown and replaced by the alleged ‘true’ version of Islamic governance. On the other hand, Muslims were killed not only in the direct attack on WTC but also in its aftermath, e.g. during demonstrations in Pakistan. A Muslim nation, Afghanistan, has suffered immensely. Muslims living in predominately non-Muslim states have also suffered from increased racism and racial hatred. Some have even been killed. How then did the terrorist attack address current world imbalances or challenging existing power hierarchies? The similar question can be asked in relation to American retaliation. That is, how are piece-meal strategies, such as direct military involvement in Afghanistan going to produce real changes, addressing the root causes of terrorism? How is the extensive use of force and demonization of ‘the other’ – the enemy, not going to confirm what the USA is already accused of?   How are ultimatums and strategic alliances based on exercising the existing worldwide power going to help support equitable diplomacy and true international cooperation?

It is of course too early to say what the aftermath of military involvement in Afghanistan might be. But some are already guessing, for example, that further militarisation will negatively impact education, health, quality of child-care, increased authoritarianism and decreased liberties in American society itself. If this is the case, and most likely it is, there is very little doubt that similar developments will occur in other parts of the world. But although there is enough evidence to support these guesses, others argue that military actions are (unfortunately or not so unfortunately) necessary to protect American (and world) citizens in the future. That is, lives of some need to be sacrificed now, to protect the lives of many tomorrow. One problem with this is the incredible hypocrisy when it comes to the issue of whose lives are to be sacrificed. American interventions (e.g. Yugoslavia, Afghanistan) are done in such a way that it is very clear who is the actor dictating solutions to others, asking someone else’s lives to be sacrificed (KLA, Northern Alliance, civilians in Yugoslavia and Afghanistan). The ecological damage is never discussed, not only because of the worldview that guides military interventions, but also because it is ‘less important’ people that will cope the consequences. Although the Taliban and Serbian militia were already brutal, their brutality reached new levels once the pounding from the skies started. Those that get the privilege of ‘saving the lives of many’ by their own deaths, so called ‘collateral damage’ – of course never ask to be ‘sacrificed’ nor are they ever given the choice to safely avoid damage to their own bodies, families, localities. Most could neither escape to neighboring countries nor would they, except for the very few, be given visas to countries such as USA, UK or Australia. From the perspective of those that are brutalized, killed or that have seen members of their families and communities brutalized and killed it is hypocritical to talk about their ‘sacrifice’ as something that ‘saves’ other peoples lives. Rather, it represents the murder, and, as is the case with most murders, it is not only ‘regrettable’ but also committed in vain. And, as Arundhati Roy (20001) passionately argues, it should never be set of against any other list of killed innocents but rather added to that existing list, the list of all people tortured, brutalized, killed.

Murders rarely account for much good and violent actions usually come to haunt people that themselves participated or initiated them. Of course, we cannot know for sure whether the military campaign in Afghanistan is really going to protect USA or other western countries. That is, while it may help ward of some terrorist attacks in the immediate future, it is simultaneously promoting and creating the violent world, in which hardly anyone is safe and secure. But what we do know, because it comes from the past, is that previous American involvement in Afghanistan, the support of fundamentalist Taliban during Soviet invasion, did eventually backfire to the USA themselves. Strategic alliances, support of violent militias and sub-cultures of violence, selling of arms, and so on, may bring some desired outcomes but the price paid in the future may turn out to be much higher. So it seems more logical to argue that the promotion of violence, more often then not, brings with it long-term negative consequences, cycles of retribution, revenge and hate. Even if it does not backfire directly to perpetrators, the energy of internalized terror usually eventually materializes somewhere – one should only look at examples such as Israel/Palestine, former-Yugoslavia or even South Africa, with its current massive crime problem.

Competing futures, global patriarchy and future scenarios

Actions taken on the September 11th and in the aftermath have also been informed by particular futures images. These images can sometimes be so strong as to override the basic human impulse for self-preservation, as was the case with suicide plane hijackers.  Other powerful imaging included evoking of particular histories, as realistic directions for the future. Examples include Bush’s revoking of Crusades or Wild West, or the Taliban’s revoking of idealized early Islamic societies. But the influence of a particular image of the future is the strongest when it is normalized and naturalized as inevitable. For example, as Francis Fukuyama’s (1992) work testifies, the liberal belief that the main obstacles in the quest towards a peaceful global order are rogue states is partly based on the belief in the inevitability of a particular evolutionary pattern. This common evolutionary pattern for all human society is apparently in the direction of liberal democracy (Fukuyama, 1992; Burchill and Linklater, 1996:28). Such a desired future, that of universally spread liberal capitalism and democratic nation states, incorporates a belief in the “Western forms of government, political economy and political community …[as] .. the ultimate destination which the entire human race will eventually reach” (Burchill and Linklater, 1996:28). The inevitability of such a future is not only accepted within neo-liberal and rationalist discourses but has now become almost ubiquitous. Not surprisingly, the attack on America was quickly renamed to be an attack on civilization. The important distinction between developed states and civilized peoples on one hand, and the rogue states and fundamentalist barbarians on the other, was swiftly made. This shift became incredibly important for justifying not only bombing of Afghanistan but also all previous military campaigns by the USA, including the bombing of Iraq and NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. As Jan Oberg (2001) from Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future Research argues, this important distinction includes the following:

When democracies fight wars and make interventions they know how to legitimate it with reference to highly civilized norms such as peace, human rights, minority protection, democracy or freedom – and they do it as a sacrifice, not out of fear. In contrast, “the others” start wars for lower motives such as money, territory, power, drugs, personal gain, because they have less education, less civil society, less democracy and are intolerant, lack humanity or are downright evil.

In addition, the created military-solution-oriented post September 11th discourse has also become one more example of the dominance of “malestream” patriarchal perspective especially when it comes to conflict analysis and resolution. The masculinist bias could easily be found in predominantly masculinist rhetoric, patriarchal logic and the general invisibility of women. While women have consistently been either invisible or only present as objects of the inquiry (e.g. victimhood of Afghani women), on the other hand, men have been both real and symbolical subjects – movers and shakers of our history and our present. From terrorists to political, military and religious leaders, to heroic fire fighters and rescue workers – the life taker, the decision-maker, the hero, the powerful one has almost always been a man. But most importantly, the patriarchal worldview has the strongest grip on definitional power. For example, the patriarchal discourse has been present in the focus on abstract categories, such as ‘nations’, ‘free-world’, ‘fundamentalists’, etc. It has also been present in the “predominance of strategic discourse of national interest and national security … and inductive reasoning [that has] … effectively removed people as agents embedded in social and historical contexts…” (True, 1996:210). Binary thinking, considered by many feminists to be one of the main characteristics of patriarchal reasoning has also roamed wild. Examples include ‘free-world vs. totalitarian states’ and ‘either with us or against us’ choices on offer. In fact, as feminist authors in the area of international relations have shown, all the key concepts central to how states and the international system currently operate, such as power, sovereignty, security and rationality (True, 1996:225-236) embody a patriarchal worldview. The main problem with this is that the existence of hegemonic patriarchal discourse that cuts through all these categories seriously limits spaces for the emergence of alternative strategies. That is, it can be equally embodied in neo-liberal, rationalist discourses or within the worldview of ‘the terrorists’ but also sometimes even in so called ‘progressive’ and ‘leftist’ approached. For example, the patriarchal worldview is embodied in Marxist understandings of historical change and view that the violence is somehow the ‘midwife’ of history. It may come as no surprise then that Marxists and neo-Marxists are often sympathetic towards ‘liberation’ movements that too often incorporate violent strategies into their modus operandi. Of course, Marx’s famous statement that the ‘violence is the midwife of every old society pregnant with a new one’ is one of the better examples of misusing women’s experiences and interpreting them from within a patriarchal worldview.

Contrary to Marx’s metaphor, pregnancy and midwifery theorized from a perspective of female embodiment have instead been associated with peace, caring and love as, for example, among so called ‘maternal feminists’ or ‘maternal peace theorists’. The patriarchal discourse is also dangerous because it erases real people from the picture and replaces them with impersonal actors, such as ‘Americans’ and ‘Afghanis’ for example. These abstract categories are then constituted not only to be the other to us, but also to be simultaneously somehow ‘less’ and a serious ‘threat’.  The deaths of concrete people become either glorified if they are part of ‘us’ (‘our heroes’) or considered to be ‘collateral damage’ if they are part of ‘them’. The anthropocentric character of patriarchal discourse, on the other hand, assures that environmental aspects are never considered and completely erased from the overall project.

But seeing only ‘rogue states’ as a worry seems to be a seriously one-sided approach. Instead, we should ask the question of who has the highest capacity for violence. Surely biological weapons are a huge hazard. But who has accumulated the biggest stockpiles? While concerns were expressed after Soviet Union collapse, in terms of its possession of nuclear weapons, these concerns should be expanded to include other states as well. Possession of nuclear weapons is always a worry but who has actually used them so far, killing thousands of civilians, including children and babies? Similarly, was it ‘developed’ or ‘rogue’ states that have developed their arsenals by exploding nuclear weapons half a way across the globe? Was it rogue states that have been instrumental in creating many horrific and deadly consequences among ‘less important’ people living on the islands of the Pacific, or the ones that pride themselves by their unique and highly ‘developed’ ‘culture’ and ‘civilization’?

So if Western civilization is in general promoted as the evolutionary improvement for others, why shouldn’t others also follow the western pattern of militarisation, development of chemical and biological weapons, or nuclear experimentation? Unfortunately both the sheer magnitude of acquired weaponry as well as ideological willingness to use it by so-called developed states makes them equally if not more dangerous. Just one look at the military involvement after WWII of current ‘only-remaining-super-power’, the ‘leading-democracy-in-the-word-today’ is shocking. As Roy (2001) and Galtung (2001) remind us this is the list of countries that USA has been at war with and/or bombed since 1945: China (1945-46, 1950-1953), Korea (1950-1953), Guatemala (1954, 1960, 1967-1969), Indonesia (1958), Cuba (1959-1961), the Belgian Congo (1964), Peru (1965), Laos (1964-73), Vietnam (1961-1973), Cambodia (1969-1970), Grenada (1983), Lebanon-Syria (1983-84), Libya (1986), El Salvador (1980s), Nicaragua (1980s), Iran (1987), Panama (1989), Iraq (1991-), Kuwait (1991), Somalia (1993), Bosnia (1995), Sudan (1998), Yugoslavia (1999), Afghanistan (2001). Galtung (2001) also recalls William Blum’s Rogue State: A Guide to the World’s Only Superpower which describes in detail “Global Interventions from 1945” and gives list of 67 such interventions. The list includes non-military interventions and much indirect, US supported violence. These include assassinations, attempted or successful, of leaders including heads of state (tried in 35 cases), assistance in torture (in 11 countries), and interference with a democratic election processes (a list of 23 countries). Galtung (2001) then concludes that US interventions from 1945 account for 35 (assassinations) + 11 (torture) + 25 (bombings) + 67 (global interventions) + 23 (perverting elections) equaling for total of 161 cases of political violence.

While the USA represents only 5 per cent of the worlds population it spends 280 billion dollars per year on its military operation (well over five times the amount now spent by Russia, the second highest single-country spender) (Sivard, 1996: 21, 40). USA also sustains the largest number of foreign military bases. It continues to be the largest military spender in the world, accounting for 41 percent of global defense outlays in 1995 (Sivard, 1996:40). In addition, since the Persian Gulf war, the USA has become the world’s top arms exporter, well exceeding “the total arms exports of all 52 other exporting countries combined” (Sivard, 1996:41).

  Directing everyone else’s futures towards this particular model of statesmanship is neither feasible nor desirable. Neo-liberal and capitalist patriarchy project for the future, guided by the hegemonic imperialism of the USA government, is therefore unsustainable and dangerous. Therefore, different, including non-patriarchal futures need to be imagined and developed.

But so far that has not been the case with two most obvious scenarios for the immediate, post-terror future. As Inayatullah (2001) argued in the aftermath of September 11th, these are ‘Fortress USA/OECD’ and ‘Cowboy War – Vengeance Forever’.  In the Fortress scenario, OECD nations close the gates to outsiders, focus on national security concerns, and employ increased surveillance technologies. The nationalist discourse is secured. The Islamic world strengthens its feudal structure, becoming even more mullahist. In the “Cowboy War – Vengeance Forever” attacks and counter attacks begin the slow but inexorable drift to fascism – the clash of civilizations becomes a truism. Both these scenarios epitomize patriarchy by depending on dominator narrative and by excluding women’s perspectives and ways of knowing. Both depend on strong military, on domination, force and strong masculinist engagement. The fortress scenario as a desired future cannot succeed if you – the leaders of the state and citizens – develop any sign of ‘weakness’ or empathy towards the other. It depends on othering, on categorizing people into us and them. The long-term success of fortress scenario will largely depend on the magnitude of pressures from outside rather then measures taken from inside. Unfortunately to those that do not believe in ‘sharing’, the future might became more and more problematic. As Udayakumar writes, in the future where “two-thirds are poor and deprived of basics and promise, there will not be any peace and security” (Udayakumar, 1995: 47). According to him, the safety of the rich (and poor in rich countries) relies on justice for the (world’s) poor as much as the well-being of the poor demands on the cooperation of the rich (Udayakumar, 1995: 347).

Vengeance Forever is also a scenario that will not help global security much. The stability created by (im)balance of power will only be temporary, until the next challenge. This scenario depends on the further militarisation of all, including ‘developed’ societies. In turn, militarisation has always brought disastrous consequences for women. The Vengeance Forever scenario will see the spill over of general anxieties which will result in an increase of violence against women, children, nature. The brutalizing effects of war and militarisation on women (and men) have been well documented.

If the “Vengeance Forever” scenario materializes, women will increasingly be seen as birthing machines, a permanent reserve labor force, menders of men’s physical and psychological wounds, and so on. Militaristic and war-oriented societies usually see women mostly in terms of ability to give birth to future warriors, or in terms of support they provide at the ‘home front’. Both the Fortress and Vengeance Forever scenario represent the extension of Global Patriarchy, further enforcing rather than challenging its dominator elements.  The enforcement of the Global Patriarchy scenario is problematic because it will help put women’s liberation on permanent hold, as there will always be more important causes to work towards. It will also put women’s priorities at the furthest end and place stress to the maximum on education, health-care, parenting and family life in general. As these priorities are also important not only to women but also to everybody, Global Patriarchy scenario will therefore help further deteriorate rather then improve living conditions for most people.

Terrestrial Futures  

The alternatives to previously described dominating futures images are far stretched but it is precisely their long-term orientation that gives them legitimacy. A globalized world is increasingly making short-term solutions problematic. Short-term solutions are, of course, necessary, and day-to-day actions are the only ones that in fact could be taken. But hourly and daily actions have to be informed by what are their most likely consequences, tomorrow and the year after. The likely consequences of violence and wars are well documented and they rarely bring much good. This is why the belief that there is only one choice to be made: between violence and non-violence, is inaccurate. In fact, violence should be seen as no choice at all, and various non-violent approaches debated and considered. That means that various non-violent strategies for creation of world security are necessary, not just one. While a case can be made for the legitimate use of force by some international security/police force, this can only be done in a context where such force is truly international rather then simply serving the needs of the strongest and most powerful. Resorting to physical force as a defense strategy should also, of course, be the very last option. But the problem with this is that once it is accepted that violence is justified in “some cases” and “only as a last resort” it almost always gets stretched to include “most cases” and inevitably becomes either a first or a second resort! Therefore, violence should not be considered to be an option, but rather, implemented extremely rarely, and only in a situation when it certainly prevents a concrete act of direct violence that is evidently about to be committed. As Johan Galtung (2001) argues, “the choice of discourse matters”. This is because:  

Discourse and the course of action influence each other, the discourse serving as action directive, and as rationalization of the actions taken. (Galtung, 2001)  

The particular vision for the future also matters, because of its power to influence actions taken today.  

Vision  

The alternative image of the future that I evoke here is that of an independent and sustainable but yet interconnected, interdependent and interrelated world (e.g. Boulding). Ideas of the planet as a single place can be traced back many centuries (Scholte, 2000:62) but have especially increased in popularity over the last several decades. The focus here is on centrality of human relatedness, complex interrelations within a society that are all further fundamentally embedded in ecological relationships. The image of ecologically and economically sustainable future also compels us to take seriously the interests of the non-human community and future generations of people and other living beings.

According to Reardon (1993:149) conceptions of global security and of a world at peace should incorporate four basic visions:

(1) “The birthright vision” images a world in which the basic human needs of the Earth’s people are met; (2) “the vision of women as equal partners” centers on the full equality of women and men in the public and the private spheres; (3) “the transcendence of violence vision” projects a world free of war and the physical abuse of women; and (4)  “the vision of an ecological community” perceives a world built on common interests and sharing, and respect and care for planet Earth.

It is not only a different vision for the future but also a different view of time that needs to underline alternative strategies. By expanding our sense of time and history, argues Boulding (1990), we can develop a better understanding of where we are now and where we should be going. This expansion means thinking about ‘now’ in terms of ‘200 years present’, present that is not only defined as a fleeting moment but that rather incorporates five generations before and after us. Many INGO’s (International Nongovernmental Organizations) already incorporated such expanded sense of time and history, continues Boulding (1990). Because of their transnational identities they are “able to hold the world public interest above national interest in ways that neither the nation-states nor even the UN itself can do” (Boulding, 1990:53). Not surprisingly, INGOs operate with longer-term horizons than nation states which influences “a better historical memory for issues …substantial expertise on pressing global problems … and provide opportunities for action as an antidote to despair” (Boulding, 1990:53-54). Globalized, interconnected and ecologically unified world can no longer afford ad-hoc strategies based on individual interests of nation states.

What is required most of all is careful balancing of national, regional and religious identities with terrestrial one. In more concrete terms, building of terrestrial futures includes the work on Global Ethics, Earth Charter, global governance and strengthening of local communities, creating not only Gaia of civilizations but also a Gaia of balanced localities in interconnected and interrelated world (Boulding, 1990). The “Terrestrial future” scenario is impossible without some sort of economic justice, Hazel Henderson’s ‘win-win world’, and the existence of multiple economies versus one dominant such as in global capitalism. The definition of progress as movement towards open-market democracies presents the attempt of universalizing the particular historical experience and imposing it onto the others. Current, male-dominated formal economy is based on both the exploitation of women’s productive and reproductive labor as well as on degradation of the planet (Hazel Henderson, 1991). Economic globalization is forcing societies to universally adopt a system which is basically unsustainable as well as based on global injustices. Ideologies that promote economic globalization also present the example of binary thinking in terms of open-market democracies equation with progress and everything else with either stagnation or regress. But in a highly diverse world multiple strategies towards variously defined and seen ‘progress’ and ‘development’ are much more realistic. Alternatives to consumerism and global ‘Casino’ capitalism are already currently developed everywhere, from individual actions to local self-sustaining communities, to global ‘fair-trade’ movements. These should be further encouraged and supported, especially when they focus on more sustainable and life oriented economic practices. Economical rationales have so far significantly supported militarisation and direct state as well as structural violence. It is about the time that economical rationales start exclusively supporting peace, justice, security and life.

The Terrestrial futures scenario also requires gender justice and balance, as in Boulding’s gentle, androgynous society or Eisler’s partnership society/gylany. Boulding’s (1977:230) ‘gentle society’ demands dialogic teaching-learning process between women and men that will enhance the human potentials of both. This is to be achieved by:

…institutionalizing opportunities for the education, training, and participation of women in every sector of society at every level of decision-making in every dimension of human activity, and extending to men the procreation-oriented education we now direct exclusively to women. (Boulding, 1977:230)

For Eisler (1987, 1996, 2001), in this nuclear/electronic/biochemical age, transformation towards a partnership society is absolutely crucial for the survival of our species. Eisler (2001) convincingly argues that the real challenge in front of us is not in terms of old categories such as left versus right or communism versus capitalism but between partnership and dominator alternatives for human relations. Which means that the real dilemma is not whether we should give our allegiance to the “American way of life” or to those that are currently disadvantaged by the system. The real dilemma is how to address dominator elements in all our societies, communities and within ourselves. It is therefore not Islam and Christianity (nor ‘the West’) that are the enemy per se, but dominator elements within both. Elise Boulding (1998) further supports such perspective by maintaining that:

Each society contains in itself resources that can help to shift the balance from a preoccupation with violence toward peaceful problem-solving behavior. These include a perennial, utopian longing for peace, both secular and faith-based peace movements, environmental and alternative-development movements, and women’s culture.

This implies that ‘the blame’ for each and every conflict is not necessarily and automatically projected and allocated onto the other. The main action to be taken is towards reduction of violence whenever it takes place, whether in our own societies, our own families or in our minds (desire for retaliation and revenge). When it comes to societies that are in some ways ‘foreign’ to us or we are ‘foreign’ to them, the main strategy should be the offer of support for peace-building, peace-making and peacekeeping strategies. The most important point here is that such support should not be provided in terms of external expertise but by utilizing and supporting local initiatives. The main impetus for a support is both in pure altruism and idealism but also in pragmatism and the realization that expending localized peace initiatives is the necessary step towards achieving ‘one planetary zone of peace’ (Boulding, 1998).

The move toward terrestrial futures is also the move towards better recognition of the demands of local communities. No sustainable global society, information or otherwise, can exist without economic and gender justice. Until we move towards the futures in which women’s strength in their local environments are followed by the strength of local environments themselves as equal partners within the regional and world system, feminine energies will continue to be suppressed and the symbols/parts of world and other centralized systems attacked. Another important requirement is the respect for all our differences. As long as the needs for cultural identity and desire for autonomy are not respected, minorities will be threatened by any global vision that is exclusionary. In turn, they will resist by creating essentialist, primordial identities that are also exclusive, and maintain a picture of a polarized world that is too simplistic. As long as the global vision of the future  remain exclusive of our many differences and represent the desired of dominant social groups as the only way forward, the marginal groups will continue to resist. They will resist any attempts to unify into the One as long as the One refuses to embraces the Other by loving Many. As Seyla Benhabib (1992) argues, we need to move towards a more concrete and actualized version of universalism, that proceeds more from the ground up, and:

…does not deny our embodied and embedded identity, but aims at developing moral attitudes and encouraging political transformations that can yield a point of view acceptable to all. Universality is not the ideal consensus of fictitiously defined selves, but the concrete process in politics and morals of the struggle of concrete, embodied selves….

This “interactive universalism” is significantly different to “substitutionalist” universalism of which liberalism provides one good example. While the starting point for substitutionalist universalism is expansion of a particular body of rights that has, in fact, been historically enjoyed by only a privileged minority, the starting point for an interactive universalism is in a concrete recognition of our differences (Moynagh, 1997). Interactive universalism therefore bases its moral claims not on some abstract categories but on a commonality among all, while simultaneously acknowledging unique situations of diverse social groups (Moynagh, 1997). One such commonality is the existence of a ‘holy peace culture’ (Boulding, 1998) and secular peace movements among most, if not all, historical and present societies. Peace culture rather then ‘holy war culture’ and ‘warism’[i], is the place where ‘creative balance among bonding, community closeness, and the need for separate spaces’ is maintained (Boulding, 1998).

Some desired events could be understood as both the future vision and a list of measures/strategies needed to achieve a world at peace. This is the case with desiring a world without weapons, general disarmament, expansion of nuclear-free zones, prohibiting the making and use of nuclear and biological weapons and destruction of all existing stocks, stopping of nuclear tests and setting up of international control for all these measures (Reardon, 1993; Brock-Utne, 1985; Boulding, 1990). Or, the prevention of arms-trade, non-cooperation with existing military security order, replacement of national armed forces with nonviolent civilian defense forces trained in passive resistance and the defense, general reduction of national armed forces and their replacement by mediation forces and United Nations standing peacekeeping (Boulding, 1990).  

Strategies

Practical interventions and strategies are predominately needed in four main areas: definitional/ conceptual, social/ cultural and economic.

Conceptual and theoretical strategies work on redefining the way the events are understood and explained. Recalling divisions, creating abstract categories of ‘enemies’, and then embodying them in a particular group or person are problematized. This is because such conceptualizing does not enhance communication but only creates circles of revenge and retaliation. Rather, the main focus ought to be on understanding exactly ‘who’ and exactly ‘why’ did such horrific acts of violence. The analysis of the technicalities of the attack would be equally important but not the only discourse used. There would be refusal to categorize some people as quintessentially evil, although there would be a demand that they answer about their evil actions and behaviors. If terrorism is basically about ‘lawlessness’, arbitrary use of military might needs to be prevented, because it only confirms that ‘the might is right’ and that ‘violence is the only language that they understand’. The focus should rather be on bringing those responsible for criminal actions to the International Justice Court, which would have its quarters in several locations in various world regions. Civilizational and cultural differences would not have equally strong ground in discounting courts and justice processes themselves if they were seen as fair and balanced. Certainly, Islamic countries are not incapable of enforcing ‘the rule of law’. In circumstances where atrocity is allegedly made ‘in the name of Islam’ it should be Islamic cultures and societies that could most successfully address fundamentalists ‘cultures of war’ that steam from their own tradition as well as be more successful in bringing the perpetrators to justice. International Courts based in various regions of the world would enhance ‘holy peace’ culture from within which would be seen as less threatening for the people of the region. Fundamentalists doctrines would therefore loose some of their raison’s d’être, some of the appeal that streams from addressing genuine inequalities and grievances.  

The conceptual shift would also include refocusing from power-over in the direction of power-for, power-to, power-with, power-within and power-toward. This means a shift from coercive power to the approach that focuses on empowerment, on enabling power to create positive change. It also means questioning both the validity but also the efficacy of power-over as ‘the mechanism for organizing world politics or solving world problems’ (Peterson and Runyan, 1999:216). This redefinition is crucial because, as Peterson and Runyan (1999:216) explain:  

If this model is used, world order looks less like a pyramid, where few are on the top and many are on the bottom, and more like a rotating circle in which no one is always at the top and no one is always at the bottom. Instead, all participate in complex webs of interdependence. Interests, rather than being defined in opposition to each other, are developed through relationships with others. Conflicts are resolved not by force or its threat but in nonviolent interaction and mutual learning. 

Another conceptual shift is from ‘reactive to relational autonomy’. When players in the world politics are seen in terms of ‘reactive autonomy’ (values independence and order, promotes separateness and independence that is a reaction against others, assumes that cooperative relations are virtually impossible without coercion) expectations of hostile and competitive behavior are reproduced. (Peterson and Runyan, 1999). This in turn generates uncooperative and defensive responses. On the other hand, relational autonomy values interdependence and justice, basing identity within the context of relationships rather than in opposition to them. It also assumes that cooperation typifies human relations when they are relatively equal and that cooperation is destroyed in the presence of inequality and coercion (Hirschmann, 1989, Sylvester, 1993, Peterson and Runyan, 1999). Seeing the world in terms of its interconnectedness implies a commitment towards equality, as an obligation. So far, the commitment to international conventions and institutions has been on voluntary basis only and too often seen as some sort of ‘harassment’ to individualized and individualistic sovereign states. Terrorists, for their part, also obviously define power as power-over that is based on reactive autonomy, with the main goal of reaching the top of the pyramid rather then questioning the structure that reproduces such hierarchies.

Underlining views on reactive vs. relational autonomy are different understandings of conflicts and consequently how are conflicts to be resolved. For example, conflicts are usually presented in terms of human nature seen in negative terms (competition, capacity for aggression and violence). According to Eisler (2000) such a presentation streams from the dominator cultural paradigm, which represents only part of the picture of what it means to be human. Both the capacity for violence and capacity for peace are evolutionary features of human ‘nature’. The dominator discourse represents only negative aspects of human nature as ‘realistic’, forgetting about equally valid positive human characteristics such as capacity for sharing, altruism, non-violence, peaceful conflict resolution, cooperation, caring, negotiation and communication. (Eisler, 2000). More gender-balanced narratives on evolution and history provide examples of not only warfare but also of long periods of peace (Eisler, 2000, Boulding, 1990).

Other fundamental concepts, such as sovereignty and strength are also defined differently if we step away from dominant worldview. For example, an ecological perspective sees the sovereignty of the Earth as preceding and still superceding human sovereignties (Patricia Mische, 1989). This means that the sovereignty to nation states needs to be balanced with subnational and supranational entities – both with lived local communities and the world as a whole. The nation-state is then simultaneously ‘too big and too small’ to effectively co-ordinate effective responses that would address direct and structural violence. But in other ways it is also ‘just right’ because actions are necessary at all and the every level of human organization. The redefinition of what constitutes strength prevents current seesaw of one-sided ultimatums and shortsighted stubbornness as a response. Because, to be willing to negotiate with the opponents would not be seen as the sight of weakness but rather as that of strength. This would also be the case with attempts to reconcile, continuously communicate, provide concessions, cooperate and accept mediation. Unfortunately, current diplomacy is based predominantly on the strength of weapons which dictates terms of engagement, priorities and issues rather then on true desire to resolve grievances to common satisfaction of all stakeholders and parties involved.

Of course, when security is understood in terms of both direct violence, such as war, as well as the structural violence, it is believed that actions need to be taken not only in the realm of the ‘political’ but also in the realm of social and economical. As authors such as Jan Jindy Pettman (1996) have shown security from women’s perspective is more likely to be defined as security of employment, education, health and security from domestic violence rather then in terms of a protection from an external threat to a nation-state. Therefore, global security is also to be defined differently. It is only logical that this means neither acquiring huge arsenals of weapons of mass-destruction nor their frequent use. But the hegemony of patriarchal discourse assures that these alternative readings are rarely taken seriously.  

Social and economic strategies require radical transformation and restructuring of societies and economies. This means working towards the objectives of equality, development and peace by improving employment, health and education (The Beijing Platform for Action, The Fourth World Conference on Women, Beijing, in Peterson, Runyan, 1999:218). Approximately 3,000 deaths from terrorist attack on Unites States are 3,000 deaths too many. But so are estimated 24,000 deaths of people who died of hunger on the same day, 6,000 children killed by diarrhea and 2,700 children killed by measles on the 11 September 2001 (New Internationalist, 2001:18-19). If we become aware that the number of malnourished children in developing countries is about 149 million, the number of women who die each year of pregnancy and childbirth about 500,000 and number of illiterate adults 875 million it is clear that where priorities should be. Preventing terrorism by policing is crucial but so is ‘the holy war’ against injustice, structural and cultural violence, poverty. These problems are, as is terrorism, global problems. The understanding of ‘security’ predominately in terms of national security or the security of the state is becoming obsolete by the day. Although the USA did not in any way ‘deserve’ the attacks that occurred on the 11th September, we should still become aware that all violence (in the international, national or family realms) is interconnected (Tickner, 1993:58). Which means that there is an intimate connection between both direct, structural and cultural violence, as well as domestic and international violence. Thus, any serious attempt to end war must involve significant alterations in local, national, and global hierarchies (Peterson and Runyan, 1999:228). This includes addressing sexism, racism, classism, heterosexism, and gendered nationalism which have all been vital to sustaining militarism and the ‘us’ and ‘them’ mentality that goes along with it (Peterson and Runyan, 1999:228),

One of the most important strategy, connected to socio-economic trasformations is  demilitarization. Availability of weapons may not be sufficient factor for war and terrorism but certainly it is necessary. Particular cultural cognitive maps determine how are technologies to be used. Still, the general production, availability and the trade of weapons directly support various wars as well as terrorism. Unfortunately, the direction taken after 11th September has been further militarisation, because the new ‘reasons’ for further militarisation have been activated. The logical response should instead had been redirection of resources from the military towards civilian needs and requirements. This would include a redirection of resources towards development of international courts system, towards initiatives that work on inter-cultural understandings, communication and alliances. The overall problem of course is that the patriarchal worldview determines that life-taking activities are better funded than life-giving ones. For example, worldwide, over half the nations of the world still provide higher budgets for the military than for their countries’ health needs. In the USA alone, the Pentagon received $17 billion more than it requested in both 1996 and 1997 (“The Ohio story”, quoted in Peterson and Runyan, 1999:125). The awaited ‘peace dividend’ after the end of the cold war has not materialized because 6 years later the Pentagon in the USA still receives 5 times what is spend on education, housing, job training and the environment combined  (“The Ohio Story”, in Peterson and Runyan, 1999:120).  

Demands for de-militarisation are underlined by the more acute awareness that peace is not a state but a process. The focus is on peace-building, peace-making and peace-keeping, contesting the belief that peace is “a kind of condition or state which is achieved or simply occurs” (Boudling, 1990:141). Or as something that happens only after the military intervention is over. The awareness that “peace never exists as a condition, only as a process” (Boulding, 1990:146) means that military involvement – or ‘doing war’ – is seen as directly opposite from ‘doing peace’, that is, from various peace-making activities. The patriarchal worldview implies that waging wars is sometimes necessary to maintain the peace. Alternative perspectives to this worldview imply that peace cannot be defined only as the absence of war and that both direct and structural forms of violence need to be addressed. Therefore, peace does not merely depends on the absence of war, but rather on constant efforts to achieve equality of rights, equal participation in decision making processes and equal participation in distribution of the resources that sustain society (Borelli in Brock-Utne, 1989:2). In that sense, peace either happens now, as well as yesterday and tomorrow, or it does not. Its temporal and geographical locations almost entirely depend on peace activities and result from active practicing of peace promoting activities. ‘Doing war’ is therefore, not a necessary condition for achieving reconciliation, but directly opposite condition that can best be defined as the absence of peace, and peace promoting activities.

The list of previously mentioned strategies is by no means exclusive, but it is an example of how different visions for the future as well as a different worldview bring different understanding of how conflicts are to be understood and resolved. Current and traditional means of resolving conflicts have resulted in a well-documented violent history. If future histories are to be changed, traditional, neo-liberal, ‘realists’ and patriarchal discourses, with their trademark short-term orientation, need to be abandoned. They could be replaced with alternatives that provide an expanded sense of time and long-term orientation as well as a more balanced views on war/violence, human nature, history, conflict, power, sovereignty, security, strength, identity, peace and future. This means that it is those alternatives that are, in effect, more ‘pragmatic’, ‘realistic’ and viable. The emerging global order requires constant negotiations and building of alliances between all our diversities. It requires global justice and fairness rather then the ‘might is right’ approach currently practiced by individualistically oriented and self-centered nation states. In our globalized, ‘compressed’, ‘hyperreal’ and ‘hybrid’ world the alternatives that aim to develop both unified and diversified terrestrial futures have not become less, but rather more urgently needed and necessary. Consequently, they could potentially be one important path that can be taken in order to, epistemologically and strategically, support the efforts and struggles toward global peace and global security.

References:

Ackerman, Peter and DuVall, Jack (2000) A Force More Powerful: A Century of Nonviolent Conflict, St. Martin’s Press, New York.

Bell, Wendell (2000), “New Futures and the Eternal Struggle between Good and Evil”, New Futures: Transformations in Education, Culture and Technology, Proceedings from the International Conference on New Futures, Tamkang University, Taipei, Taiwan.

Benhabib, Seyla (1992) Situating the self: Gender, community and postmodernism in contemporary ethics. New York, Routledge.

Boulding, Elise (1990) Building a Global Civic Culture: Education for an Interdependent World, Syracuse University Press, Syracuse.

Boulding Elise (1998) “Peace culture; the problem of managing human difference”, Cross Currents, Winter 1998, v48, n4.

Brock-Utne, Birgit (1985) Educating for Peace: A Feminist Perspective, Pergamon Press, New York.

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[i] Warism is understood as the view, a cultural predisposition, that war is both morally justifiable in principle and often morally justified in fact (Cady, 1989). Alternatively, ‘warists’ or ‘war realists’ consider morality to be irrelevant, inapplicable, or ineffective in relation to war (Cady, 1989)

Terror and World System Futures (2001)

Sohail Inayatullah[1]

The events of September 11, 2001 should be seen in global human terms as a crime against humanity and not as a war against anyone. This is not only because those in the WTC come from many nationalities [2] but as well issues of solidarity and efficacy of response move us in that direction.. In this sense, the framework for dealing with terrorism must be from a strengthened World Court (in the context of a reformed United Nations), just as those responsible for Rwanda and Srebrenica have been dealt with (or will be dealt with).[3] That international law has not prevailed in this conflict tells us a great deal of the nature of the world system (it is still strategy and power that define and not the rule of law or higher culture). That he has not done so reinforces the nation-state and moves us away from world law, and, indeed, world peace. Years later we will look back at this costly mistake in dismay – what could have been and the path that was not followed. 

While Bush should be commended for the search for allies in the Islamic world, seeking an indictment within a world court framework would not have only granted increased legitimacy – for a campaign that has been increasingly seen like vengeance, (not to be mention economically motivated), and not justice – but created a precedence for the trial of future terrorists (of cyber, biological, airline and other types). 

The equation that explains terror is: perceived injustice, nationalism/religious-ism (including scientism and patriarchy), plus an asymmetrical world order.  One crucial note: explanation is analytically different from justification. These acts, as all acts of mass violence, can not be justified. 

The perceived injustice part of the equation can be handled by the USA and other OECD nations in positions of world power. This means authentically dealing with Israel/Palestine as well as the endless sanctions against Iraq. Until these grievances are met there can be no way forward.  Concretely this means making Jerusalem an international city, giving the Palestinians a state, and ensuring that there are peace keepers on every block in Israel-Palestine. It means threatening to stop all funding to both parties (the 10$ billion yearly from the USA to Israel, for example, and from Saudi Arabia and others to the Palestinian authority). It means listening to the Other and moving away from strict good/evil essentialisms, as Tony Blair has attempted to do in the Middle-East (or more appropriately South-West Asia).  Dualistic language only reinforces that which it seeks to dispel, continuing the language of the Crusades, with both civilizations not seeing that they mirror each other.  Indeed, at a deeper level, we need to move to a new level of identity. As  Phil Graham of the University of Queensland writes: “We are the Other. We have become alienated from our common humanity, and  the attribute, hope, image, that might save us – is  the “globalisation” of  humanity.”[4] 

However, Bush giving increased legitimacy to Ariel Sharon once again strikes most of the world as hypocritical. While Arafat has already lost any legitimacy he may have had as a leader of the Palestinian people, at least he is not under likely indictment for war crimes committed in Lebanon. For Bush to cozy up to one war criminal and attempt to eliminate others (Mullah Oman and Bin Laden) worsens an already terrible situation. 

MACROHISTORY 

From a macrohistorical and structural perspective, the USA is a capitalist nation with military might buttressing it. Osama Bin Laden and others are capitalists with military strength. Both are globalized, both see the world in terms of us/them, both use ideas for their position (extremists drawing on Islam; American intellectuals using linear development theory). Both are strong male. The USA builds twin towers, evoking male dominating architecture (as argued by Ivana Milojevic and Philip Daffara, of the University of the Sunshine Coast[5]) and the terrorists use the same phallic symbol – the airplane – to bring it down. Boys with toys with terrifying results for us all.  And with over 50% of Americans believing that Arab Americans should have special identity cards and the now defunct Taliban having legislated that hindus where special insignia on their clothes, these chilling similarities return us back to Europe sixty years ago. 

In the terms of spiral dynamics, as developed by Beck and others[6], these are both red forces (passion) fighting each other. The world is desperate for a Blue force, a higher order legal framework, to resolve the violence.  What has occurred however is the elimination of one red force by a combined effort of two other red forces, American and Northern Alliance. While the terrifying actions of the Taliban are paraded in propaganda machines throughout the world – the CNN lie machine – little mention of the Northern Alliance brutalities are trumpeted. Fortunately, there is more to this world than state power, and thus Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have focused on all the parties (but none yet on USA bombing mistakes – such as those costing the hands of Afghani children. Food packets being the same color as cluster bombs can be seen as unfortunate or as paradigmatic. While seeking indictments against US military personnel is going too far, Afghani victims of the war should have the right to legal redress, especially financial compensation. There can be no negotiation on this. Indeed, it is this fear of indictments that keeps the US away from a world court. 

Still at least at the official level, American and Western leaders have called for tolerance, for openness, for respecting Islam and muslims, for seeking terrorists, ie criminals, and not other categories. [7] Indeed, there have been legal cases against USA airlines for not allowing those of south asian and middle eastern ethnicity to board on planes.  This type of legal recourse was certainly not available to Abdul Haq, murdered by the Taliban  in late October.  Not surprisingly,  Osama Bin Laden  called  for a struggle against America and Jews (and now the United Nations), resorting to tired racist and hateful rhetoric, which in the long run will  bring little solace to those suffering – essentially the language and madness of conspiracy theory. Moreover, after the struggle against America and the Jews, who then will it be, the shias (which are already targeted by many Taliban supporters)? And then? Once the politics of exclusion begins, only ever increasing dogmatic futures can result.  Interestingly, far right wing hate groups in the USA have endorsed Osama Bin Laden’s action, arguing that the Federal Government and the world Jewish conspiracy is the problem (and as would be typical in male discourse, saying that while they agree with politics and tactics they would not desire them to marry their daughters and visa versa). 

However, Osama Bin Laden’s demand for rights for Palestinians must be heard. Like a child who is not heard, the shouting gets even louder. Or a body that is sick, getting sicker and sicker, calling attention  to the disease, and even killing the host (meaning the planet itself), unless there is some foundational and transformative change. While the USA and others prefer the chemotherapy and radiation approach to health (thus bombing appears natural, ie the USA exists in epistemological reductionism)  if we are interested in the long term, then perhaps the naturopathic  homeopathic or chiropractic might work much better. Can there be a truth and reconciliation commission?   The shouting is also getting louder as muslims are undergoing a religious renaissance, argues Riaz Hussan of Flinders University, Australia.[8] As they move toward increased religiosity, there is far less interest in extremist political positions, in those who live in the conspiracy discourse. Thus, Osama Bin Laden and other extremists find their pathways cut off, both from within the Islamic world and as well from the globalized multicultural world. Attacking old symbols of imperialism becomes the only way for them to survive. Creating new futures, new economics, new cultural texts, however, is the real challenge. 

What is especially challenging to the USA is that the demands from many muslims, including extremists, is not for money or territory but for the West (and nations claiming to be muslim) to change, to become less materialistic, more understanding of the plight of the poor, and more religious – and to return to their pre-Columbus borders. And, American public opinion appears to share this, with a majority calling for a return to a moral core, away from crass materialism (but not yet from jingoist war).  As Kevin Kelly has written, communism collapsed because the West offered something better. For extremism of the Islamic variety to collapse, more than McDonalds will have to be available.[9] 

The demands of the  West on Islamic nations generally has been the opposite: to become more materialistic, more growth-oriented in terms of the formal economy (but not more people) and more sensate, scientific – to develop.  From a macrohistorical perspective, each distorts what it means to be human by focusing on one dimension, and in extreme forms.  From an individual view, we can see how  those in the periphery develop a love-hate relationship with the center. The terrorists drinking, gambling, cavorting in strip clubs before the 11th of September shows how they  internalized what they struggled against. It also shows how Islam for them was strategic, a text that could be used to justify their own pathological worldview.  

In the long run, the events of September may be viewed as an isolated attack of terrorism, or they may be seen as: (1) events that clearly define who is the world’s hegemon ending the competing (Europe, East Asian, China) nation’s theory – Americanism, for now, and forever; (2) as a renewal of the Islamic world, with extremists, literalists, declining in popularity, and a new vision of Islamic modernity emerging, leading to the beginnings of a global ecumene; (3) a challenge by the poor to the world capitalist system, in effect, continuing the pattern of the decline of Communism, decline of grand religions and the collapse of capitalism. In the sense, as the system collapses, the question only future historians know is: what new forms of power will reign? What will emerge from the chaos?  A world state? 

The second part the equation is a shared responsibility, within the Islamic world especially, but essentially a dialogue of civilizations.  This means opening the gates of ijithad (independent reasoning and a capacity to adapt to change) instead of blind imitation.  And here, the crucial language is a dialogue within religions, between the hard and soft side. Certainly the Taliban argument that Muslims have a duty to fight with them in case of an attack on Afghanistan did not help matters.  The Taliban spent the last decade fighting against Muslims with USA indirect support (creating what is now know as the Afghan Arabs) –  why would anyone desire to support such a state? It is the failure of the modernist statist paradigm and support of tyrannical states by the West that pushes groups in this extreme direction.  Unfortunately, leadership in the Islamic world that can give legitimacy to the softer side has been silenced. As long as these leaders do not stand up and challenge dictatorships, they will indirectly participate in the creation of endless Osama Bin Laden’s. Anwar Ibrahim is the most potent symbol of a global muslim leader who seeks a dialogue within Islam and between Islam and the rest of the world in language and on terms of dignity and global ethics. Unfortunately, he remains falsely imprisoned in Malaysia and is symptomatic of the crisis in the Third World. 

While the hard side has clearly defined the future – every bomb dropped, every moment of bio-terror –  reduces the possibilities, this need not be the case.  There are alternatives.   The hard side (not the US military), to some extent, has become de-legitimized.  For example, even the right wing in the USA cringed when Pat Robertson blamed the terror attacks on God ceasing to provide protection to America because of the rise of  feminism, etc..  And Muslims everywhere, are hopefully, beginning to see that more terror will not work and is morally wrong. The Islamic leaders meeting in Qatar was a step forward. The message must be: the injustices are real but non-violent global civil disobedience (against companies, nations around the world, leaders)  is a far more potent method for long-term transformation. In Pakistan, the elimination of the extreme right wing has given hope the middle-class. The carrot of US$ has allowed Pakistan to move away from the rightist politics of General Zia. 

Unfortunately, the hypocrisy in the West does not help matters, and increases daily. Until the USA shuts down its own terror training camps, as for example, the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Co-operation (Whisc), change is likely to be incremental if at all. Whisc was called the School of Americas and argues George Monblot has trained more than 60,000 Latin American soldiers and policemen,” largely involved in death squads against their own people. For example, in Chile its graduates ran Pinochet’s secret police and his three main concentration camps and Human Rights Watch revealed that former pupils … had commissioned kidnappings, disappearances and massacres.”[10]Asks Monblot, provocatively,  should there be bombings of Georgia? Of course not, still double standards do not lead well to civilizational dialogue or world systems transformation. But others nations perhaps should lead the USA by example, showing that hypocrisy does not need to be how the game is played. 

The third part  of the equation really is what the social movements can and must continue, challenging the asymmetrical nature of the world system – the structural violence, the silent emergencies –  and pushing for a new globalization (of ideas, cultures, labor and capital, while protecting local systems that are not racist/sexist/predatory on the weak).  The social movements can through their practice and image of the future, show, and create a global civil society, challenging the twin towers of capital and military.  Real transformation, as in the changes in Eastern Europe, was  pushed through partly through the people’s movements. This process of creating a post-globalization world must continue.  

Resolving the equation of terror then must be both very specific and short term – crimes against humanity  cannot be tolerated – and must transform perceived injustices, the isms, and the structure of the world system, the long term civilizational perspective.  New Internationalist reminds us that on September 11, 2001, 24,000 people died of hunger, 6000 or so children were killed of diarrhea and 2700 or so children died from measles. [11] 

Of course, there are as well bio-psychological hormonal factors (testosterone and chakra imbalance)[12] that may account for the terrorist actions, but they do not always lead to such massive horrendous actions unless there is a historical and structural context.  Thus, terrorist as sociopath is an understandable description but there are deeper levels of analysis. 

SCENARIOS 

What then of the future? What are the likely trajectories? Here are four scenarios for the near and long-term future. These are written – a first draft was written september 20 – to map the future, to understand what is likely ahead, as well to create spaces for transformation.

(1) Back to Normal. After successful surgical strikes against Bin Laden and others, the USA returns to some normalcy. While trauma associated with air travel remains, these are seen as costs associated with a modern lifestyle, ie just as with cancer, heart disease and car accidents. The West continues to ascend, focused on economic renewal through artificial intelligence and emergent bio-technologies. More money, of course, goes to the military and intelligence agencies. The Right reigns throughout the World. Conflicts remain local and silent.  Over time, the world economy prospers once again and poorer nations move up the ranks just as the Pacific Rim nations have. Already the crusader look was presented at Jean-Charles de Castelbajac’s design collection and is considered likely to take off.[13] La vie est Belle (but just don’t look like you are from south asia or the middle east or have an Arabic name). 

(2) Fortress USA/OECD. Australia, for example, is already moving in that direction,  with basically a prison lock down ahead, especially to newcomers (who desire to enter the Fantasy island of the Virtual West escaping sanctions and feudal systems) and those who look different.  In the USA this is emerging through tighter visa restrictions and surveillance on foreigners, as well as, citizens. The carrot is of course usa citizenship being offered to informants from troubled spots. Of course, once they gain citizenship, they can spent a life time under surveillance. 

However, the costs for the elites will be very high given globalized world capitalism, and with aging as one the major long term issues for OECD. The Fortress scenario will lead to general impoverishment and the loss of the immigration innovation factor.  In the short run, it will give the appearance of security, but in the longer run, poverty will result, not to mention sham democracies with real power with the right wing aligned with the military/police complex.  Increasing airport security is a must but without root issues being resolved, terror will find other vehicles of expression. After all, fortresses are remembered, in history, for being overrun, not for successful defense against “others.” 

The response from the Islamic world will be a Fortress Islam, closing civilizational doors, becoming even more feudal and mullahist/wahbist, and forcing individuals to choose: are you with us or against us, denying the multiplicity of selves that we are becoming. The economy – oil – will remain linked but other associations will continue to drift away. 

(3) Cowboy War – vengeance forever (with soft and hard fascism emerging). Bush has already evoked the Wild West, and the Wanted – Dead or Alive image, indeed, even calling for a “crusade” against the terrorists. We have seen what that leads to all over the world, and the consequences are too clear for most of us. Endless escalation in war that will look like the USA has won but overtime will only speed up the process of  decline. They will remember the latest round, and the counter-response will be far more terrifying, with new sorts of weapons. In any case, with the USA military, especially the marines  rapidly increasing its percent of its members who are muslim (through conversion and demographic growth rates)[14], cowboy war will start to eat at the inner center. And once state terror begins, (or shall we say continues) there is no end in sight. Bush has already stated the assassination clause does not apply to Bin Laden and others since the USA is acting in self-defense. Cowboy war, again, will work in the short run. Crowds will chant USA, USA, until the next hit. The CIA can get back to business (already 1 billion has been appropriated and Bush has asked Congress to increase the Pentagon budget by 50 billion usa $), and continue to make enemies everywhere. Most likely, this will globally lead to an endless global “Vietnam”, well, in fact, an endless Afghanistan.[15]     

However, there are signs that Bush and others are listening to a tiny portion of their softer side and seeking to focus on the action of terror and not on Islam or any other wider category.[16]  They could use the sympathy from the rest of the world to “eliminate” terrorism (just as piracy in the high-seas was ended earlier) and, hopefully, in the longer run, seek solidarity with all victims of violence. The trauma from the bombing could lead Americans to genuinely understand the traumas other face in their day to day existence, to a shared transcendence, or it could lead to creating even more traumas. We can hope he – and all of us – keeps on listening and learning,  and with the war in Afghanistan over, the soft future may be possible. But if health in Afghanistan and the Islamic world is not resorted, there will be more trauma on the way. For All.  

Thus in this future, there will be no real change to the world system. Once all the   terrorists are caught –  well actually the perpetrators are already dead –  no changes in international politics or international capital will occur,  OECD states simply become stronger, while individuals become more fearful and anxiety prone.  A depression of multiple varieties is likely to occur (economic and psychological).  The depression will likely lead to anti-globalization revolts throughout the world, either leading to states to  bunker themselves in for the long run, or possibly – transform. Most likely, we will see a slow but inevitable movement toward global fascism – the soft hegemony of the carnivore culture (and anti-ecological in terms of land use) of McDonalds’s with the hard side of Stealth bombers.  The West will become a high-tech fortress, using surveillance technology to watch its citizens. Dissent is only allowable in peace times, and since the war against terrorism is for ever, submit or leave! 

However, “Fortress” in the long run may be difficult, as the globalization forces have already been unleashed and the anti-thesis in a variety of forms has emerged (the socialist revolt, decolonization movements, and even, terrorism). “Cowboy war” will likely only exacerbate the deep cleavages in the World Economy (that the richest 350 or so own the same as nearly 3 billion individuals). Indeed, a case can be made that this was Bin Laden preferred scenario. Bush attacks lead to destabilization in the Arab world, with the possibility of a nuclear accident and leading to extremists in Islamic nations rising up against modernists. 

Over time in this scenario, there may be a transition in who plays the central role in the world system, and is among the reasons the attacks have led to global anxiety – world system shifts are not pretty events or processes.  The periphery tends to see its future through the lenses of the Center; if the Center can be bombed, what future is there for the impoverished periphery? 

The deep divide cannot be resolved, however, merely by the “hearts and minds” strategy for this involves making traditionalists modernist, ie from loving land and God to loving money and scientific rationality. Rather, it involves moving from tradition to a transmodernity, which is inclusive of multiple but layered realities (the vertical gaze of ethics), moving toward an integrated planetary system (loving the  planet and moving away from exclusivist identities but transcending historical traumas). But can this transition occur? Can there be a Gaian polity? This is the fourth scenario. 

(4) Gaian Bifurcation. A Gaia of civilizations (each civilization being incomplete in itself and needing the other) plus a system of international justice focused not only on direct injustices but structural and cultural.  This would not only focus on Israel/Palestine (internationalizing the conflict with peace keepers and creating a shared Jerusalem)  as well as ending the endless sanctions in Iraq, but highlighting injustices by third world governments toward their own people (and the list here is endless, Burma,  Malaysia’s Mahathir, India/Pakistan/Kashmir). The first phase would be  far more legalistic, developing a world rule of law system with the context would be a new equity based multicultural globalization. This aspect would have an hard edge, developing a global police force and a military force. The second phase would be values driven, moving from military to peace keeping to anticipatory conflict resolution. In this phase, this future, the  USA would move to authentically understanding the periphery, seeking to become smaller, globally democratic. This means transforming the world system, focusing on a post-globalization vision of the future, and moving to world governance. Specifically, this means: [17] 

·      human and animal rights;

·      indexing of wealth of poor and rich on a global level, that is, economic democracy – employee ownership;

·      prama[18]based- creating a dynamic balance, between regions, rural/city, seeing  the world economy through the ecological metaphor but with technological innovation;

·      self-reliance, ecological, electronically linked communities (becoming more important than states);

·      gender partnership;

·      and a transformed United Nations, with increased direct democracy, influence of the social movements and transparency within multinational corporations. 

It means moving away from the modernist self and the traditional self, and creating a transmodern self (spiritual, integrating multiplicities and future-generations oriented). 

In terms of epistemology, this means moving from the strategic discourse, which has defined us for hundreds of years, to the emergent healing discourse (within, toward others, toward the planet, and for future generations).   Healing means seeing the earth as an evolving body. What is the best way to heal then, through enhancing the immune system, listening to the body, or through massive injection of drugs? 

In workshops  run around the world, Islamic, Western and East Asian nations, for example, this alternative future emerges as a desired future. Muslim leaders in a March 1996 seminar in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on the Ummah in 2025  desired a future that was based on: 

·      gender cooperation

·      a cooperative economic system (and not capitalism)

·      self-reliance ecological electronically linked communities (glo-cal), and, a

·      a world governance system 

This perspective appears to be generally shared by  the cultural creatives, an emerging demographic category in the West (www.culturalcreatives.org) In the Non-West as well there is a desire to move away from feudal structures but retain spiritual heritage, to be “modern” but in a different way.

DIRECTION 

To move toward this direction, ultimately means far more of a Mandela approach, what Johan Galtung is doing via the transcend (www.transcend.org) network, than the traditional short term Americanist approach. 

Indeed, 9/11 must be seen in a layered way. How it is constructed defines the solution. If we use the piracy discourse, then  a global police force must be developed to combat terrorism. If, however, it is a natural consequence of globalization, of a shadow NGO attacking a world hegemon, then the focus should be on the pathologies of globalization. If  this is essentially about injustice, about deeper worldviews being extinguished by modernity, then structural transformation and conversations with the other are far more important.. Depth peace is needed. While there may need to be short term actions against criminals, rehabilitation requires changes of culture and of economic opportunities, ie dismantling of the interstate system which allows capital to travel but not labour, and certainly restricts ideas from the periphery to travel and circulate freely. 

In this sense, the fourth scenario is about the long term and about depth. This fourth scenario is a vision of a global civil/spiritual society. It stands in strong opposition to the declared nation-statist position and the extremist groups all over the world. It challenges the strategic modernist worldview as well as the short termism of most governments. 

The first scenario continues the present; the second is a return to the imagined past; the third the likely future; and the fourth, the aspirational .  This means moving beyond both the capitalist West and the feudalized, ossified non-West (and modernized fragmented versions of it) and toward an Integrated Planetary Civilization. 

On a personal note, in utopian moments, I can see this civilization desperately trying to emerge at rational and post-rational levels,  and there are huge stumbling blocks – perceived injustices, the isms,  the asymmetrical world order, and national leaders unwilling to give up their “god-given” right to define identity and allegiance. 

Do we have the courage to create this emergent future? As we move into 2002, the aspirational future moves further and further away – the window of opening for cultural dialogue, for understanding deeper issues, has all but closed. But it will open again. Let us hope that opening does not come in the same fashion as 9/11 did. And I hope we will learn from all the mistakes committed this time.


[1] Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan; Sunshine Coast University, Maroochydore; and Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane.  Co-editor, Journal of Futures Studies (www.ed.tku.edu.tw/develop/jfs), Associate Editor, New Renaissance (www.ru.org). s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au, www.metafuture.org. Inayatullah was born in Pakistan and raised in Indiana, New York, Geneva, Islamabad, Kuala Lumpur, and Honolulu. 

[2] Around 500-700 Pakistanis are presumed to be missing, as based on data from SBS Television Australia and Pakistan’s The News. It is not only Americans that is being attacked by certainly Muslims (possibly around 900 or so in the WTC and  some in the Pentagon, perhaps, not to mention attacks of terror toward Muslims in the last 15 years from all sources) as well. As of September 23, the figure is 200 pakistanis. http://www.pak.gov.pk/public/transcript_of_the_press_conferen.htm. By February 2002, this figure has been revised downwardly to 3000. The number of non-Americans killed is unknown.
[3] As Tony Judge and others have argued, www.uia.org)
[4] Personal comments. September 18, 2001.
[5] Personal comments. September 16, 2001.

[6] Jo Voros of Swinburne University offers these thoughts (email, October 8, 2001):What’s really going on (in Spiral language) is that purposeful-authoritation higher-order-seeking BLUE is activating its fundamentalist side and is becoming entrenched on both sides of the conflict. And each side of the conflict is basically talking about God being on *their* side (the classic  Higher Authority invocation) therefore, the “others” are unjust, unrighteous and deserve to be damned forever. BLUE needs a clear-cut right and wrong; by default “we” are right and “they” are wrong, which is the dynamic now playing out on either side.

Therefore, we have the US talking about “bringing to justice” (punitive arm of BLUE) those responsible for WTC attacks. The US talk of a “crusade” is a RED-BLUE effect; unrestrained RED asserts power and domination, often with violence, and when aligned with the “righteousness” provided by the higher authority, this violence is assumed to be righteous, resulting in violence glorified, allowed and exalted in the name of the Higher Authority. This is the same dynamic as on the West Bank between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Once you strip out the context-specific content, the same dynamical process is easily seen. On the facing side, the fundamentalist Taliban are saying the same sort of stuff — that it is the US who are terrorists and criminals, and thus unrighteous, etc — and invoking “jihad” — the semantic equivalent of “crusade”. The RED is starting to flow, both figuratively as a Spiral Dynamics vmeme, and as the blood of the now dying in vain. *sigh*

So, what we really need in this conflict is a super-ordinate Even Higher Authority to provide “good” authority (as opposed to the excessive fundamentalist form present on both sides) and bring the two sides to heel. Unfortunately, this is not present on Planet Earth. Each side claims sanction and legitimation from the Ultimate Higher Authority (God), so any non-God authority is, by definition, beneath this level.

[7] Of course, one friend of mine, commented that if he did know me, because of my name and facial features, he would have problems flying on the same plane as me. Another commented: “They are everywhere” (meaning arabs/south asians/muslims).
[8] See Hasan’s Faithlines: Muslim Conceptions of Islam and Society. Oxford University Press (forthcoming).
[9] Kevin Kelly, “The New Communism,” The Futurist (January-February, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2002), 22. Writes Kelly: “I think we need to enlarge Western civilization so that we have something young Islamic believers want. Providing it will be the only way, and the only honest way, to triumphh.” (22)
[10] George Monblot, “Looking for a terror school to bomb? Try Georgia, USA. Sydney Morning Herald (November 1, 2001), 12.
[11] New Internationalist 340, November 2001, 18-19.
[12] In the Indian health system, there are seven chakras. When the chakras are imbalanced, then negative emotions and behaviors can result. Yoga, meditation and diet are ways to balance the bodies hormonal system.
[13] Sally Jackson, “Star-spangled fervour in style,” The Australian (October 31, 2001), 15.

[14] Ayeda Husain Naqvi writes in “The Rise of the Muslim Marine” (NewsLine, July 1996, 75-77) that while hate crimes against Muslims rise all over the world, surprising the US military is one of the safest places to be a Muslim. Indeed, Qasem Ali Uda forecasts that in 20 years, 25% of all US marines will be Muslim. Given the incredible influence that that former military personnel have on US policies (ie a look at Who’s Who in America shows that military background and law school education are the two common denominators on the resumes of America’s most influential people), inclusion is the wisest policy.

[15] I am indebted to Mike Marien, of the World Future Society for this insight.
[16] As the conflict matures, Colin Powell and others have understood that surgical strikes as well as seeing the other in far less essentialized terms (the many Islams, the many Afghanistans) is crucial for strategy and success. Bush entering a mosque, without shoes, and publicly stating that this is a war against terrorists and not Muslims are all excellent steps forward. In addition, protection of minorities in the USA against direct violence is as well to be lauded. Even his willingness to change the title of the American Infinite Justice operation to Enduring Freedom confirms that he is getting some good advise, or rapidly growing up.  However, if total lack of capacity to understand the role of honor in Pushtun culture once again shows that Americanism can be dangerous for the world, in that complexity, other ways of knowings are not only not misunderstood but not seen as relevant at all. An approach that understoon Pushtun culture would search for honorable ways for them to withdraw from this conflict.
[17] See, Sohail Inayatullah, Understanding Sarkar: The Indian Episteme, Macrohistory and Transformative Knowledge. Leiden, Brill, 2002.
[18] Prama means inner and outer balance.  For more on this, see, Sohail Inayatullah, Sitatuing Sarkar. Maleny, Gurukul Publications, 1999.