Hard to Plan for a Brave New World (2000)

(Australian Financial Review, 22 February 2000).

SOHAIL INAYATULLAH

 

FINANCIAL PLANNING

How can we plan financially when the impact of technology and an ageing population promise to transform our lives, asks Sohail Inayatullah.

Even amid the “future shock” of the past 50 years, the future has been stable. It has been defined by continued economic growth a suburban home, escape from manual work, a better life for one’s children, and a nuclear family.

There are also traditional notions of the course of one’s life (birth, student, work and retirement near the ocean or golf course) and working patterns (five days a week, nine to five).

Financial planning for long-term security is an easy task when the future is similar to the past. In such a climate, things work out irrespective of when one invests in the share markets, as long as one keeps on investing.

Of course, say the planners, investing should be balanced, and the sooner you start, the better. But in the year 2000, can we confidently assert there will be a continuation of the trend of rising markets, of the move from industrial to post-industrial, of increasing wealth for the top- and for the middle-class in western nations?

Going back a generation, researchers in a 10-nation survey asked 9,000 people 200 questions focused on this year. They were asked to predict the future (Images of the World in the Year 2000, edited by Johan Galtung and Robert Jungk).

What they saw was the dark side of the “continued growth” future. Says Galtung: “More sexual freedom, less attachment to families, more divorce, more mental illness, more narcotics and more criminality, a future of highly materialistic, egocentric individuals striving for personal pleasure and benefit.”

What people saw was a gap between the image of the future an endless array of new technologies leading to progress and the reality of their own, increasingly meaningless lives. They saw the

postmodern future and, for Australians the reality is borne out in our youth suicide rates.

It is this social vacuum that has historically characterised a time between eras, but what will the new era we have entered look like? Can we plan for such an era?

In visioning workshops conducted by this author in Taiwan, New Zealand, Thailand, Germany and Australia, two alternative futures emerged.

The first is the continued growth scenario and the second is an organic, green future. In this “green” future, technology is still central but relationship with nature, God and neighbours is more important than getting a new yacht.

But the future may be dramatically different from either of these forecasts and three growing trends challenge them.

Ageing: First, an ageing population means retirement pensions are difficult to sustain (the ratio of worker to retiree will dip from 3:1 to 1.5:1). Second, who will buy shares when baby-boomers sell for their retirements? Third, whose hard work will drive the economy? Fourth, can we imagine a world with an average age of 40 instead of the historical 20?

Genetics: Discoveries occurring daily may mitigate against the decline in elderly health. Also on the horizon are the creation of synthetic DNA, computers that use DNA instead of chips to store information, cloning, designer babies and the unlinking of sex and reproduction.

Few would object to gene therapy for curing illnesses or preventive gene therapy for foetuses, but there is a fast slide down the slippery slope from genetic prevention to genetic enhancement. Already on Wall Street, the stock prices of genetic companies are starting the quick rise upwards, not yet like .com companies, but the next likely wave.

To assume the genetic future is far away is a huge mistake. With the mapping of human genomes soon to be concluded, next will be social engineering on a massive scale.

Will insurance companies give life and critical illness insurance to those with inappropriate genes? With germ line engineering (the manipulation of genes we pass to our children) the genetic structure of future generations will be modified, eliminating diseases and “undesirable” traits. For more information, try http://research.mednet.ucla.edu/pmts/germline.

Jobs and work: A multitude of job categories are being created that did not exist a few years ago. While genetic counselling will certainly be a boom career, the deeper question is: will there be jobs in the future? Again not a question with a simple answer. There are three scenarios. The first is: 10 per cent work and 90 per cent don’t. The second scenario is: 30 per cent work full time, 40 per cent are in contract work and 30 per cent remain unemployed. The last scenario is full employment the dream of all liberal governments but, with women working and technology eliminating work, the least likely.

The big question remains: can a future about to be transformed by ageing, genetics and the internet be stable and secure? Can it be planned for?

When your financial planner gives you high-growth, medium-growth and slow-growth scenarios for your investments, ask what will happen if the world dramatically changes, transforming assumptions of continued growth, changing how we work, how we age and the very basis of life.

World as City: City as Future (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

Imagining the Multicultural Futures of the City

What will the cities of the future look like? Is there one clear future for the city or are there a range of alternative futures?

First the immediate data and most forecasts point to one overwhelming trend – the urbanization of the planet, Blade Runner writ large. This is a long term historical trend but now reaching to a point where begin to serious imagine Earth itself as a city. The data is such that by 2020, half the world’s population is expected to live in an urban environment.

But why?  First, there are few jobs in the farms, and the jobs there pay comparative less than jobs in the cities. Farms all over the world are in trouble with governments having to subsidize farming incomes. This is because of automation but also because agricultural development does not figure high in most nations economic plans.

But the economic rationale is not the only reason. We only have to go back a 100 or so years to search for the mythic roots – it is of going to London town and find streets paved with gold. While rural communities are successfully able to provide for basic needs (at least when the harvest is good, when nature does not play tricks), it has been unable to provide for wealth creation. Rurality means that one lives according to the seasons – ups and downs – one doe snot enter the long term linear secular trend of wealth accumulation. It is in the city where this can happen, riches can be earned.  The city then becomes the dream fulfiller, where the future can be realized.

And there are lock-ins. Once one family goes to the city, others follow suit. Once others follow suit, economies of scale take over – along with the factory worker, one needs the brick layer, eventually, service industries and financial industries as well. More population and more wealth.

But this is too simple, cities are also packed with the poor, who now live in misery, that is, while in the farm they were poor, still poverty was sustainable – there was a sharing of wealth. But with the city comes the classic anomie, fragmentation, alienation.

And yet we rarely return to the farm instead of as imagined places of peace and comfort. My own memory of  the village is community, of waking up together with other villagers, eating parata (Pakistani deep fried bread), and sitting around gupshupping (gossiping and storytelling). Yet I rarely go back to the village, instead preferring to find community, not through the straitjacket of by genetic birthplace, but through intended communities. I prefer to find community by creating it. It is the city that best accomplishes this. Or does it?
Interlude: as I write this article at Taipei International Airport, the model Cindy Crawford walks by – city life is now glamour life, even economy class passengers can participate in the excitement of stardom.

But return to the village matters little, it is a fictional memory, it gives us a benchmark. It allows us to see our progress – we can see how far we have progressed from rurality and at the same time, in our mind we retain a sense of safety, we can return to the past.

Instead of paratas, village songs and chirping birds, we have chosen  Blade Runner or modern day Bangkok/LA.  And as the Net spreads its tentacles, instead of Blade Runner as our guiding image, it is the Matrix that represents the future of the city, having forgotten the past, we now enter a world in which we no longer can distinguish what is real and what is illusory. But who will be the redeemer, who like Keanu Reeves, saves us, showing us the light? So far the redeemers, those who have called for a return to the village have only brought more death, Pol Pot being the most famous example.

The likely future of the city then is an erasure of our million year history, whether the Sumerians or whomever one desires to claim began the urbanization process knew it would lead to this is doubtful. But our rural history appears to have reached its end.

Different futures

Yet if our aspirations in any way reflect our possible, if not probable, futures, then the Earth as City may not be ultimately occur, agency has not been lost.

In dozens of futures visioning workshops across the world – Taiwan, Germany, New Zealand, Malaysia, Pakistan, the USA – where participants are asked to in detail describe their preferred futures, two images are dominant.

The first is the globalist scenario – a jet plane for all, unrestricted movement of capital and labour as well as ideas and news – not a utopia but certainly a good society where feudalism, hierarchy, nationalist power break down and humans function as autonomous fulfilled beings. The market is primary but a globalized worlds allows endless associations – nongovernmental organizations, religious affiliations, and other forms of identity currently unimaginable. With scarcity less of a problem, who we are and how we express this changing identity become far more crucial. The city becomes a site of intention. Freedom is realized (insert painting one – from www.futurefoundation.org).

As dominant as this first future is a second. This future is far less concerned with movement and more focused on stability. But the stability does not come from stasis but from connection – relationship with self, with loved one, with community and with nature.  Wealth is no longer the crucial determining factor of who we are rather it is our capacity to love and be loved, to not live to transform the world but to live in harmony in the world.  Rurality is not tangential to this image – indeed, while this image does not necessarily mean a return to the farm, it does mean a move away from industrial modes of production (that is, high fat, meat based diets and the accompanying waste disposal paradigm) and postmodern modes of production (genetically modified foods) to an organic, recyclable mode of eating and living.

Technology should not be seen as a defining factor. In the former, technologies leads to greater wealth, to multiple selves (a geneticized self, an internet self, for example), to access to endless information. In the latter, technologies are important insofar as they lead to greater communication and greater employment. Technology creating new spaces for human community is the key for the latter vision of the future.

Historically, the image of the city has gone from the city beautiful, focused on parklands, clean streets to the city ecological.  But ever since the 1964 New York World Fair a different image of the city has become dominant. This is the high-tech city, or what now call the smart-city. The city that senses and thinks, that can monitor the needs of its citizens – when trees are about to interfere with power lines, when criminals are about to loot a store. However, a smart city, a sim city, is also about surveillance.

Brisbane in Australia has over 100 cameras in its central business district. These both protect yet they also change one’s relationship with power. One is always seen.  But can a smart city liberate us from our fears and allow us to become in fact more human? A smart city at the beginning consists of smart houses but as well humans with smart bots, always on wearable computers which amplify our senses – the wireless revolution that has already begun with teenagers in Japan.. These bots are likely  health focused, helping us choose the right products that match our values (ecological products or low-fat foods, or products made by corporations that treat other cultures well, that are good corporate citizens). But they will also help us find directions, let us know the sales going on (if indeed, we will still shop outside the Net), and where our friends out, becoming true knowledge navigators.  While the image of the American cartoon The Jetsons is perhaps an apt image, we can ask what is that image missing. Yes, life will be more efficient – automation, perfect information, however, who will be excluded? Will our behavior become regimented, that is, with smartness be based on linear reductionist notions of the world, or more on complexity, that is, on a  paradigm that smartness comes from difference, from learning about others.

Exclusion if often central to a planned city. Planned cities are designed cities, rationally created with neat rows of houses, clear demarcations of industrial areas, prostitution areas, grave sites and shopping areas.  The Pakistani capital Islamabad is one such planned city. Designed in the 1960’s by Ford Foundation planners, the image that guided them was the American city, pivotally, the vacuum cleaner. However, with cheap labour vacuum cleaners were not a necessity. But where to put the sweapers. As it turned out the moved to Islamabad as well, building kathchi abadis.  These temporary mudbrick houses became a sore site for planners so they built a wall around them.  This becomes the question: what are we walling?

Geneva has taken a different tack. Once a classical traditional white Euro city, in the last thirty years, it has transformed beyond belief. The city looks multicultural with cafes lined with African, middle-eastern, Italian, Indian and fast food restaurants. Public life is community life with dozens of cultures mixing. While most swiss consider Geneva an abheration, others have made peace with multiculturalism by moving to the other side of the river, the traditional unicultural side.

But ultimately there will be no other side of the river. The only hope will be a multicultural city. Inclusion.

Thus, along with the smart city as a guiding image of the futures, comes the multicultural city. But what is the multicultural city.  First it means city spaces are not segregated by race or gender, one should not be able to identify an ethnic area, or at least not see in a negative way. Second, citizens should feel they are part of the city, that they are not discriminated against, especially by those in authority. The actions of public officials and employees are crucial here. The Net of course helps greatly by hiding our gender, accent and colour.  But a multicultural city is also about incorporates others ways of knowing, of creating a complex and chaotic model of space such that the city does not necessarily match the values of only one culture – mosques with temples with banks. City design not only done by trained city planners but as well by feng shui experts, searching for the energy lines, decoding which areas are best for banking, what for play, what for education – essentially designing and building for beauty that helps achieve particular functions broadly defined.

Writes Starhawk in her The Fifth Sacred Thing: [1]

The vision of the future is centred in the city; it’s a vision where people have lots of different religions, cultures and subcultures but they can all come together and work together. It starts with a woman climbing a hill for a ritual and visiting all the different shrines of these different religions and cultures that are up on the sacred mountain. To me that is what I’d like to see. Culture is like a sacred mountain that’s big enough for many, many different approaches to spirit.

Interlude: I am now in Pakistan at the Islamabad Club. A western style golf club complete with swimming pools, fancy waiters and tennis courts. We are about to have tea when the Ahzan – call to prayer begins.  My all the tables is a carpet. Seven people leave their tea, bend down and begin their prayer. No one is bothered that the elitest secularism of the Club has been broken with prayer, indeed, they merge together. After prayer, dinner starts.

Future-Orientation

A multicultural city  is not just concerned about the present but it is future oriented, concerned with all our tomorrows. City planning meeting should for example attempt to keep on chair open. This empty chair could represent future generations, their silent voices represented symbolically. Each political and administrative decision needs to factor in the impact on future generations. Most immediately – five to twenty years – for Western cities, this means the rise of the aged. While the gloss is of happy ageing people, the data currently is that most elderly will live miserable lives, healthy enough to live, not sick enough to die. They will search for community, their children having moved away (unless the Net leads to the return to the home, the place of birth), for meaning and for ease of movement. A smart city will do a great deal in creating such a reality. But smartness will have to be with compassion especially has many of the aged will be mentally ill.

Net living will not make the city any less important. Indeed, home offices make communities far more important. Every move towards efficiency accentuates the need for connection.  Working from home highlights the need for social contact outside of the office space. Work has not just been about making money but about falling in love with office mates, gossiping, going shopping at lunch, making new friends – about living. Telecommuting, while saving money for any organization, raises new issues for workers. Their relationship with their husband or wife changes. Children are no longer far away at school, they are home in the afternoon. For men, housework cannot be exported to their wives since now home the pressure to share in house activities increases.

Anticipating the future of the city as well means asking residents what type of city they want in the future. While most individuals are content with avoiding big-picture national politics, many do care about their local environment – pollutants, level of development, types of parks, quality of schools. However, most city planning exercises are problem based, asking citizens to list the main problems with politicians running on platforms that will solve such problems. However, anticipation means helping residents consider the alternative futures of the city.  This means an interactive process wherein residents suggest visions of the future which then are developed into scenarios by planners which are then fed back to citizens. These visions must be based on their preferred futures, their nightmare scenarios and the likely scenario if nothing is done, if historical trends continue. This process both empowers citizen and leader alike, it also makes it possible to not such plan the ideal city but envision the ideal city.

The interactive process must include expert information on current trends, using mapping technologies to show how the city is currently divided by income, religion and other factors. These maps are already available in many OECD nations. These maps can then be projected outwards with citizens imagining different visualization of the future. Data with vision with conversation with leadership can create a powerful mix of creating cities we truly want.  While the current process of benchmarking – choosing best practice cities and discerning how one’s own city is different from them – is useful and has led to marked improvement in Asian cities, our imagination of what can be is not unleashed. City space is of course about access to water, hospital, safe streets, efficient garbage collection and jobs. But it is also about our imagination of who we can be.

A future-oriented city is thus a democratic city in the sense of deep participation about the future. It can be multicultural in the sense of better representation, of including others’ voices as well as their cultural frameworks. It is smart in the sense of using technology to measure how well we are doing, to provide benchmarks with reference to our ideal city.

Interlude: I remember a conversation in Brisbane, Australia a few years ago with recent refugees arrivals. They said on the drive from the airport, they thought that either the entire population  had gone to a football match or their had been a neutron bomb. Eventually after a week they realized that unlike traditional societies or walkable cities, suburban cities are people-absent after work. Everyone goes home to create community through the mediation of television. The only people walking the streets were southern europeans and asians, who walked nightly and were used to greater populations.   In the drive to modernity, community had been lost. Standardized television community had been gained. The cost: a lonely, fragmented population.

The great fear in creating the smart city is that we will become more socially isolated, meaning that we will die of silent heart attacks in our homes. Of course, the smart house will relay to the smart hospital that someone has died in house number 4 on Main Street. An ambulance will be dispatched and the body quickly wisked away.  Eventually, this will not be even necessary. The smart house will take care of the body, disposing it, arranging a cyber burial and finding a cyberplot. Birth to death will be automated.

But in the background will be our mythic longing for the village.

Can we create then a global village? So far we have shown the capacity to create the global city. Perhaps one day the entire Earth will be a city. It will look stunning from the Moon and Mars. But McLuhan’s vision will always remains with us. Unrealized. Calling us.

Leadership and the multicultural challenge 

The multicultural image challenges us to accept difference, to see the entire planet as a global neighborhood. It means then being responsible for one’s street, virtual or real. The multicultural city also challenges us to develop our capacities for tolerance, for dealing with sounds and smells of others. There have been periods in history when different cultures and civilizations have been in profound contact, where there has been paradigms of pluralism. And yes marauders and local politicians have invaded these sacred spaces, creating a politics of exclusion instead of an ethics of inclusion.

The 20th century will be remembered for both tendencies – exclusion and inclusion

Interlude: Novi Sad, Serbia – even as Serbian refugees  from Croatia and Kosovo stream in changing the demographics of the city and as poverty continues to rise (with no end in sight of Milosevic or sanctions) – is a livable city, and remains a multicultural one as well, a beautiful city. Everything is in walkable distance, plays, street theater continue, and citizens present a noble face even as their nation dies.  Albanians  are still safe even though the war in Kosovo has strained community relations. In contrast was Srebrenica a few years ago, where 7500 men and youth Bosnian Muslims were murdered by the Bosnian Serbs, or Sarajevo which was pummeled by Serb sniper fire.  I feel sadness for Novi Sad’s citizens seeing their dreams of socialist utopia degenerate into fascist nationalism. Bridges destroyed. But most of all for their diminished power in creating the eclectic inclusive future many there desire.

Multiculturalism has to have a broader context, either a deep internal ethics or a broader ideology of inclusion. However, the context pivots on leadership. Where leadership has used difference to rise in local and national power, the visions and histories of others has been the first causality, and ultimately ignorance has returned to destroy culture itself, the host and others. Where leadership has focused not on ethnic differences but empowered individuals to transcend their petty differences and create a better society for all, civilization has flourished.

Gene therapy and germ line engineering are likely to create even more disharmonies between cultures, where access to genetic advantage will become as important as access to wealth, education and technology. New forms are species are likely to challenge the limits of our tolerance, and, if humans become a minority in the artificial future, we are likely to challenge their tolerance of imperfection. And while bodies can perhaps be perfected, love and tolerance can only be learned in two ways: trauma leading to fear leading to collapse leading  (and the unending hell of revenge) or through transcendence. Moving to a higher plane of consciousness.

Without an image of transcendence  we die as a civilization. A multicultural city creates spaces for difference, but for it to unify the polarity of  village/city, it will have to transcend difference, seize upon an image of the future which enables and ennobles us to go beyond limitations.


[1] Starhawk, Envisioning the future in M.J. Ryan, The fabric of the Future. Berkely, Conari Press, 1998, 303.

Health Futures for Queensland, Australia (2000)

By Sohail  Inayatullah

Will health-bots monitor your caloric intake, warning you if you’ve eaten too much or not exercised enough?  

Which medical model is likely to dominate – the democratic, the professional or the corporate? Can medicare continue or will globalization end Australia’s unique universal health care system?

How will the internet change how patients get information about their illnesses? Will doctors become knowledge navigators, helping patients decipher what is gold and what is crap? Will they be able to accommodate the dramatic rise in patients using alternative therapies such as chiropractic, acupuncture and meditation?

Will general practitioners even be needed as genomics and other dramatic technological advances repair defective genes? In twenty years, will general practitioners be seen as quaint practitioners of complementary medicine?

What will general practice look like in twenty years?

On February 11 and 12th,  2000 over 140 health professionals met for three days at the Brisbane Novotel to ponder these and other questions related to the health futures of Queensland and Australia. Professionals consisted of general practitioners and senior managers of the various health divisions in Queensland. Included also were directors of Queensland Department of Health, futurists, academics, pharmaceutical representatives and members of the community.

Participants were treated to a day and half of lectures on (1) systems approaches to international health,  (2) impacts of the internet, the human genome project, ageing and complementary therapies on general practice (3) funding issues from the perspective of the Federal Government, (4) the role of state divisions in health care, (5) rural health care, and (6) perspectives from the hospitals.

The intent of these lectures, however, was not merely to provide the latest information but to help general practitioners and division chiefs develop a map of the future of the health care. To do this, along with plenary sessions there were eight small group sessions facilitators by futurists. In these groups the drivers of change were identified. From these drivers a systems map of how each subsection of the health system interacted with others (for example, how funding impacts who gets health care and through what delivery mechanism) was developed. This in turn was used to develop possible and probable scenarios. Once the alternatives were explored, participants articulated their preferred vision of the future. From this, a backast – a memory of the future – was developed so as to deduce which trends and events are likely to create the preferred future. The concluding session then asked participants to personally commit to action steps that reflected their preferred future.  Considerations of the future were thus central to action steps today.

Drivers and Scenarios

As expected the drivers were: technology, funding issues and the costs of health care, globalisation, ageing of society, consumer demands, availability and distribution of resources, and expectations of the future.

Participants developed scenarios that can be divided into four distinct categories.

1.     High-technology scenarios. They were called: digital doc, dr. robot, medi-net, IT and Star Trek.  Of the five groups that reported this scenario, three considered these negative scenarios and two considered them positive. Features of this future included: 1. Germ line engineering (eliminating genetic defects for current and future generations), genomics (customized gene therapy), robodocs and smart cards and health-bots (interactive wearable computers that monitor one’s health). Generally, participants believed that the new technologies are likely to be patient-led.  Doctors, while overwhelmed in this future, become far more holistic in their treatment, focusing on what technology does not give patients.

2.     Corporatist scenarios. These were called: Big business ownership, corporatist, $ and corporate piracy. No group saw it as a preferred scenario although one or two individuals in various groups did find it preferable. Generally, loss of control was feared, and, even while there were some gains for consumers (lower cost and seamless service) gps believed that overall the quality of health delivery would decline in this future since cost considerations would become primary and managerialism would take over as the dominate organizational mode.  However, one group did argue that instead of other corporations taking over gps, they foresaw a “future where gps develop a national corporation which has equity in, and market control over, services such as radiology, pharmaceuticals, nursing homes and private hospitals. Gps would then lead the money instead of follow the money as the do now”.

3.     Worst case scenarios. These were largely around the axis of power. They were called: Drone, Mots (More of the Same), Big Brother and Capitation. In each case, doctors lost their autonomy and felt disempowered. For example, in the Big Brother scenario, “technological developments play into the hands of centralists by both increasing specialist monopolies and also eroding the meaningful relationships that are at the core of the GP Ethic”. Clinical governance creates a hegemonic culture wherein gps lose their maneuverability in creating the futures they desire.

4.     Network/multi-door. This future consisted of a more diverse but strongly connected system. The titles given were: back to values, quality and network, multi-door, division cooperative, consumer ownership, GP ownership and medi-network. The central point in these networks/multiple doors was that doctors remained the gatekeepers with divisions or associations playing a systems coordinating role. For example, some of the roles the divisions played were: “advocacy with local services, research interpretation (separating the gold from the crap on the web), brokerage role through virtual amalgamations)” as well as a funding role. All these were considered positive. In this future, community members felt part of the system, indeed, this scenario was gp and community/patient-led.

5.     Preferred Scenario

The preferred scenario had a range of titles. These included: multi-door (flexible, multiple integrated systems, doctors as gatekeepers and knowledge navigator), futuretopia (wisdom, consultation with the community, regional governing systems, empowerment of patients, focus on quality of life), Community Care (community instead of hospital focus, gp as gatekeeper, use of smart bots, practices staff and family friendly), Nimbin (partnership between gps and the community, reduced alienation, alternative and allied care, shared ownership and reduced isolation) and the Happy  Health Centre (multi-door, part of lively gp network, and highly efficient).

In general, gps wanted new information and communication technologies to make the system more seamless (for administrative purposes) and so that they can have a higher degree of connection with other gps.

They desired the system to be far more community focused and power to be decentralized

What This Means 

For Queensland health divisions, this is a clear mandate for them to take a more significant and decisive role in shaping the future of general practice. It also a clear indicator that doctors want a far more integrated and seamless system that is fundamentally based on the community health model – interactive horizontal relationship and not vertical integration is the desired vision of the future.

It also means that doctors, as long as they are the gatekeepers (deciding issues of quality, scientific evidence, etc), are open to alternative forms of health care, to alternative medicine.

Finally, for large pharmaceuticals this means that as they attempt to gain entry and leverage to local health divisions and gps, they must do so in the context of the community model, they must become a local community business, and not an external player.

For this Australian government, as globalization pressures the State to reduce universal care, they need to understand that doctors will resist this.  Any changes in the health care system must begin with serious consultation with general practitioners, the divisions and community members.  Vertical pressures from globalisation must as well live with the desire for localist community models of care, if they are to ensure that efficiency does not merely mean that the accountant instead the doctor runs the practice.

Ageing Genes: Planning for Discontinuous Futures (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

Even amidst the “future shock” of the last fifty years, the future has been stable. It has been an image of the future defined by Continued Economic Growth: a suburban home, escape from manual work, a better life for one’s children, a nuclear family along with traditional notions of retirement (birth, student, work and retirement near the ocean/golf course) and working patterns (5 days a week, 9 to 5).

Financial futures – planning for long term security – is quite an easy task when change is similar to the immediate past. In such a climate, irrespective of when one invests in the share markets as long as one keeps on investing, in the long term, things work out. Of course, say the planners, investing should be balanced (some in value stocks, some in growth stocks, some in a house, some in cash) and the sooner you start, the better. Life, critical illness, and income insurance are useful as protection in case the tragedy that usually happens to someone else happens to you.

But in the year 2000, can we confidently assert that the long term trend of this century – of upwardly rising markets, of the move from industrial to post-industrial, of increasing wealth for the top and for the middle class in OECD nations – will continue?

How we saw the future a generation ago

Going back a generation, researchers in a ten nation survey asked 9000 people 200 questions focused on the year 2000. They were asked to predict and prescribe the future (Images of the World in the Year 2000 by Johan Galtung and Robert Jungk). What they saw was the dark side of the “Continued Growth” future. Says editor Galtung: “More sexual freedom, less attachment to families, more divorce, more mental illness, more narcotics and more criminality, a future of highly materialistic, egocentric individuals striving for personal pleasure and benefit.”  What people have experienced is a gap between the image of the future – an endless array of new technologies leading to progress – and the reality of their own, increasingly meaningless lives. They have seen the postmodern future, for Australians, youth suicide is the best indicator of this.

It is this anomie that has historically characterized a time between eras. And this is the big question – not are we between new eras – but what will the new era we have entered look like? Can we plan for such an era? Do we desire a different future than the future we are unconsciously living?

The new era

Will the new era be a rejection of progress and a return to a slower life that is far less complex, far less global, far less dependent on technological solutions to social problems? In visioning workshops conducted in four nations – Taiwan, New Zealand, Thailand and Australia – two futures emerged (Inayatullah, Managing the Future: A workbook). The first is the continued growth scenario and the second is an organic, green future. In this alternative future, technology is still central but relationship with nature, god and neighbors is far more important than getting the new yacht. Capitalism might still be around but it would be, as writer Jeff Gates argues, a shared capitalism with far more economic democracy, with workers owning companies and thus working harder and smarter since they would receive a greater share of the profits.

But the future may be dramatically different than the organic Green or the Continued Growth future. It is not just the sense that something is wrong with the Continued Growth image but the growing prominence of three trends that challenge its unabated continuation.

Ageing. First, an ageing population means retirement pensions are difficult to sustain (the ratio of worker to retiree will dip from the current 3.1 to 1.5 to 1); second, who will purchase stocks when baby-boomers sell for their retirements; third, whose hard work will drive the economy? Immigrants, perhaps, but only if they are let in. Fourth, can we imagine a world with the average age  of 40 instead of the historical 20, where will innovation come from? Another equally crucial question is: will the elderly be happy or miserable?

The facts are not good with depression, ageing related health costs and disability the likely future. In Queensland, Australia the porportion of those over 60 years will increase from 15% in 1995 to 23% in 2031. Already 25% of those over 65 demonstrate functional psychiatric disorders.

Genetics. The discoveries are daily and may mitigate the decline in elderly health. The creation of synthetic DNA, computers that use DNA instead of chips to store information, cloning, designer babies, the delinking of sex and reproduction have occurred or are on the horizon.

And it is not just the science but our own desires that will carry us into an unrecognizable world. Few would object to gene therapy for curing illnesses or preventive gene therapy for fetuses. But the slippery slope will be quick from genetic prevention and genetic health to genetic enhancement, the creation of smarter and taller children. Already Wall Street genetic companies are starting the quick rise upwards, not yet like .com companies but that is the next likely wave. The question is: what type of world are we creating? Can stupid workers be created for housework (with slightly modified brains)? Will it be Gattaca or Mad Max that will result? How different will the double-helix generation be from the .com generation and or the today’s generation x?

To assume that the genetic future is a far away is a huge mistake. With the mapping of human genome soon to be concluded, social engineering on a massive scale is next. Who among your friends has the criminal genes and who the entrepreneurial gene? Will insurance companies give life and critical illness insurance to those with inappropriate genes? Should they? How will prisons be transformed? Are there any industries that will not be dramatically changed by genetic manipulation? And what of sex? Some people will make children the old fashioned way, most will not.  And with germ line engineering, the genetic structure of future generations will be forever modified (eliminating diseases and “undesirable traits) (http://research.mednet.ucla.edu/pmts/germline).

Jobs and work

The jobs that result as well are impossible to forecast. Already, a multitude of job categories are being created that did not exist a few years ago. Profits for companies such as Intel are being created in products that did not exist even a year ago, 80% in one year reports Intel co-founder Gordon Moore.

While certainly genetic counseling will be a boom career, the deeper question is: will there be jobs in the future? Again not a question with a simple answer.  There are three scenarios. The first is: 10% work and 90% don’t. The big issue is: will the 90% get a universal agreed income, a global poverty dole or will they be in technology heaven, the consumers of the endless products created by nano-technology? The second scenario is: 30% work full time, 40% work in contract work and 30% remain unemployed. The last scenario is: full employment. This remains the dream of all liberal  governments but with women working and technology eliminating work it is the least likely, the unrealizable fantasy. With the internet eliminating the middleman  resulting in massive lay-offs of middle managers, the future of work is not bright if you are a typical MBA.

And what will the financial planner do? With highly interactive artificial intelligence (AI) web based programs that work with you, defining and helping achieve your financial goals, why go to a financial planner? Already, many prefer AI psychotherapy plans. AI financial planners – webbots – will be able to instantly and continuously search through the globe for appropriate shares and mutual funds – and other financial instruments- and they will always be on top of the latest tax strategies. The human financial planner will have to have a dramatic value-added edge to compete with the AI planners.

The big question remains: Can a future that is about to be foundationally transformed by ageing, genetics and the internet be stable and secure? Can it be planned for? Or instead of planning for the future is it better to ensure swift responsiveness to a changing future and the development of personal and institutional confidence to do so?

When your financial planner gives you high-growth, medium-growth and slow-growth scenarios for your investments, ask him: what if the world dramatically changes, transforming the assumptions that have made the Continued Growth world, changing how we work, how we age and the very basis of life?

Work, Family and Home in our Digital Futures: More of the Same or Transformation Finally (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

More of the same or  transformation, finally?

While full of economic benefits, working from home most likely will only worsen the anomie and social isolation many feel in modern society. But there is a possibility that life could be much better for all of us, says Sohail Inayatullah.

John Worthington works from home. He saves on gasoline and gets to spend more time with his children and his wife. He drives to his inner city office once or twice a week for meetings with colleagues.

A win-win story. Perhaps, perhaps not.

First, the Internet, while making it possible to telecommute, is still much slower at home than at most offices. However, in a decade or so, with information piped through cable – this is ATT’s big gamble – it will become lightening quick.

Second, although individuals like John Worthington no longer spend long lunches with office friends, still they have their new virtual communities – friends from various email groups they are part of. And in the next ten years, they will not only be able to read their emails, they will be able to see and hear them with v-net, visual net.

And yet all is not quite well.  There is no one to help clean the house tidy. At work, any mess was cleaned up overnight. In the morning the office was immaculate.  At home there is a constant battle between the children’s toys, the partner’s work and one’s own work. Endless filing cabinets cannot solve the problem.  While there is a great deal of flexibility if one’s children become sick, work always stares at one’s face.

Moreover, life has become more anonymous. Working from the suburbs often means that the only community is the Net.  Office friendships, chance lunches with colleagues, and even the office will disappear. It will be a lonely life. Yes, the screen no longer flickers, but virtual reality is still virtual.  Digital gurus such as Gates and Negroponte have forgotten in their rosy forecasts of digital nirvana that technological change without real institutional change only makes life worse for most. As Marshall McLuhan warned two decades ago:  “Excessive speed of change isolates already fragmented individuals.”

The technology then is not the issue, community and relationship is.

Home is no longer what it used to be

For Sharon Jones, the ups outweigh the cons. She too spends more time with her kids. But she wishes that they had an extended family. The Net has allowed the return to the home, but the home is no longer what it used to be. The neighborhood community does not exist. Mum and Dad are not there to help, they keep on getting sicker, and now are in an old folks home. She wishes she could get them to live with her, but she can barely manage her kids, and her husband – who insists on working from home, but does nothing to help around the house, as that is still a woman’s job – does not make things easier.

Just as neighborhood shops disappeared a few years back, Malls have now started to go bankrupt. Internet shopping has reduced their traffic, and now there is nowhere to take the kids (in any case, they prefer their virtual friends). And the email grocer delivery person keeps on changing.

These two only slightly fictitious examples are our present and future. Yes, we will work from home. Technological advances will let us do so. Globalism will ensure we do so, as it will save government, university and corporations on office space, and other infrastructure costs.  Tenure and life-time jobs will disappear and we will be mostly contract workers.  In the long term, few of us will actually work.

But the dream of telecommuting will not solve all our problems, largely since home has changed so much..

For men, home was the safe secure space to retreat after a hard day’s work. The kids were already in bed, all that was left to do was eat, wash a few dishes, watch television and try and have sex with one’s wife. But with working from home, responsibilities will begin to shift. Women will expect and demand for men to help with the housework, with parenting. Not just their fair share but equally responsibility. Men will not be able to escape to the office.

While men will only have to upgrade themselves, women will continue to face a difficult and uncertain  future.

Michelle Wallace, head of the School of Workplace and Development at Southern Cross University says:  “Women who try and combine work with family are considered by management as not serious about their jobs.” “Studies show that women work the ‘double shift’ and men with working wives often do not share half of the domestic/family responsibilities.”

Does this mean that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Technology rearranges some of our work practices but it does not change deeper held beliefs of productivity, hard work and blokism. Without fundamental change, it only amplifies oppressive practices.

Worse, says Wallace, “The whole move to family friendly policies [by governments in Europe, for example, especially Sweden] and increasing interface between public and private can also be seen as increasing surveillance of workers lives.”

The power of management over the worker expands from the office to the home. John, what are you wearing?  While there is a definite shift from blue-collar to white collar and in the next ten years to no-collar workers, Management may soon desire to know what you are wearing underneath that no-collar.

But are there any bright futures in all this?

First, there is an age generation gap. Older managers will try and control workers who begin to telecommute. Productivity will not be enough for them, hours worked remains their measure.  The bonding or teamwork necessary through face-to-face meetings – the endless boring office meetings everyone loves to hate – will also be an issue for older managers.

But younger one’s raised on the Net might see things differently. Networking relationships, that is, less hierarchical, and more based on productivity, excellence and quadruple bottom line might matter more. Generation x’ers – writes Rosemary Herceg, author of Seven Myths and Realities of Generation X (www. Futurists.net.au) – are far more sensitive to issues of gender, environment, social justice and future generations, the impact of our current politics on the long term.

They are also more comfortable with multi-tasking. This is not just the ability to go from one windows application to another , but to go from editing and writing to changing diapers; to go from web designing, net commerce, to a lovely afternoon spent with one’s partner while the kids are at daycare (or busy on their own screens, since they will have become screenagers).

This new generation might also begin to rethink the home.  This means homes designed not for 19th century office, with the old teak desk, the single book case, and the quill or Parker pen, but high-tech smart homes and office, with plenty of space for filing – electronic and paper. This also means homes that bring the ageing and aged back in. With Australians and other OECD nations rapidly ageing – one out of every four will be over 65 in a few decades and the average age will move from the historical 20 to 40 or 50 – finding meaningful lives for the aged will be crucial.

Ending the worldview that life ends at 40 or 50 or 60 will be the first step. Ending the view that one works forty years and then mindlessly slips into death or plays endless golf will be the next step. This means that the grand divisions we have had for centuries of the male public sphere and female private sphere will be challenged. The separation of inner city and suburbs will be next. The separation of work and play will follow soon.

An information, postindustrial cyber era does not only mean that there will be tons of more data or that we will remove ourselves further from the farm; rather it could mean that the divisions of the industrial era are about to collapse.

A high-tech, world, where work will intermingle with play, where kids and the aged will play together, and communities will once again flourish – once tele-decentralization goes into full swing – is quite possible. Once men move back home, they will make sure that there is money for daycare, for creating community at home.

And what of the fancy offices of inner cities? They will become like the steel mills of the industrial era. Tourism relics. Just as the foreman has disappeared from our vocabulary, the office manager, or the university professor – or anyone who else who needs a captive physical audience to exist – will slowly disappear.  They will become theme parks.

Alternatively, the digital era could reinforce managerial power, surveillance and male domination. In response, we will return to a feudal digital era, where the house becomes the man’s Digital castle.

In either scenario, real changes are ahead.

Welcome to the Wired World.

 

Sohail Inayatullah is Professor, International Management Centres. He works from home, and on occasion goes to an office at Queensland University of Technology. His kids go to daycare but prefer playing from home. His wife has no comments, and hope to write her own version of the Wired World.

 

Science, Civilization and Global Ethics: Can We Understand the Next 1000 Years? (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

What will the world look like in one thousand years? What factors will create the long-term future? What are the trajectories? Will we survive as a species? Will science reduce human ignorance through its discoveries or will ignorance increase as science becomes the hegemonic discourse? Will that which is most important to us always remain a mystery, outside our knowing efforts? What should be the appropriate framework in which to think of the long-term?

In a series of meetings sponsored by the Foundation for the Future, these and other issues are being explored by leading scientists, social scientists, paleo-anthropologists and futurists from around the world. The first of the FFF Humanity 3000 seminars was held in Seattle, Washington from April 11-14, 1999  and the second was held from September  26-29, 1999 and the third, August 13-26th, 2000. However the specific dates are quite inconsequential as what makes the Foundation unique is its intent to conduct regular symposia over the next few hundred years.  The results of each individual seminar are far less important than the larger knowledge base of the long-term future created from these conversations between, what Bob Citron, Foundation President, believes are the brightest minds in the world.  While this may or may not be true, the mix of thinkers is certainly multi-disciplinary and representing a range of political spectrums, from the extreme political right to the new left.

The first seminar focused on three areas: space exploration; global ethics and human enhancement with a debate between those who saw evolution as directed and those who saw evolution as random. The second seminar revolved around three debates (which were not resolved): is there one science or are there many sciences; is population and dysgenics a problem or a symptom of world inequity; and, is technology or encounters with the Other more crucial in the long-run.  The larger conference focused on three areas: global ethics; science and technology; and sustainability.  It concluded with a debate on if humanity would successfully evolve creating brighter futures for all or if imperialism, racism, environmental problems and governance crisis would lead to full scale global catastrophe.

This essay weaves together issues from both seminars and the conference,  and is less of a report, and more an inquiry into the nature of the long-term future.  While one can certainly argue that thinking one thousand years forward has little relevance, however, by taking a long-term perspective one can more easily ask: what is really of most importance?  A long-term focus also gives conceptual space allowing one to take an evolutionary view of history, seeing the grand patterns of biological and civilizational change. Individual trauma becomes less important, species trauma, survival, becomes more so. A long-term perspective also forces one to question the intellectual lenses, the paradigms one uses to think about the future, indeed, the entire episteme that frames what one thinks and can think?  Thus, far from a useless activity, a thousand year perspective is precisely the type of activity scientists, historians and futurists must be engaged in, if we are to survive and thrive, and discover who and what it is that “we” are.

However, thinking this far ahead is not without dangers. Generally, the longer span one takes the more implicit values come into place. The probable future often becomes more of a preferred. However, values end up being hidden by claims to science or civilization.  Second, the time scale is so fast that the conversation slips into the most important current issues (overpopulation, environment) and third, solutions and dominant perspectives emerge from current discoveries (genetics and artificial intelligence).

Recreated Selves

Thus, a pivotal issue that emerged from these conversations between physicists, biologists, ethicists, and social scientists is the dramatic probability of germ line therapy to change the very nature of our nature, to recreate not only what it means to be human, but what humans physically are and can be.

In the first seminar, one gene splicer, having left the USA where certain aspects of genetic research are illegal, commented that human cloning has probably already been accomplished. Extrapolate that out a few hundred years, and the last century of incredible technological change suddenly seems puny. Indeed, William Gates Professor of Genetics, Leroy Hood asserted at the second seminar that we are in the midst of the grandest revolution in human history. Within a generation we will move from genetic prevention to genetic enhancement to genetic recreation.  With the mapping of the human genome, parents will have knowledge about the genetic makeup of their children. Along with virtual AI technology, they will be able to view, as if in a movie, the life patterns of their children, the trajectory of their diseases and health. Selective abortion will be a possibility for many parents. Human intelligence will be enhanced. And quite possibly, a new species will be created.  We will perhaps be remembered in evolutionary history, less for ourselves, and more for the species we have created. As Doyne Farmer of the Sante Fe Institute writes:[1]

If we fail in our task as creators (creating our successors), they may indeed be cold and malevolent. However, if we succeed, they maybe glorious, enlightened creatures that far surpass us in their intelligence and wisdom. It is quite possible that, when the conscious beings of the future look back on this earth, we will be most noteworthy, not in and of ourselves, but rather for what we gave rise to. Artificial life is potentially the most beautiful creation of humanity.

Informed by the information sciences and buddhist epistemology, Susantha Goonatalike argues that life has always been artificial, the nature-city distinction as well as the virtual-artificial are false. Indeed, he imagines a future where the physical will be seen as virtual and the ideational seen as real. Technology will play a pivotal role in showing us what is maya, and what is real.

The future then is quite likely to see quite dramatic shifts in the boundaries of what we consider the self, said the author of The Future of the Self, Walter Truett Anderson.  While history has been considered “given” created by God or nature, the future is being increasingly made, we are directly intervening in evolution, creating new forms of life. Instead of a world populated only by humans and animals, the long-term future is likely to be far more diverse. There will be chimeras, cyborgs, robots and possibly even biologically created slaves. Our future generations may look back at us and find us distant relatives, and not particularly attractive ones.

Others such as Clement Bezold imagine a future where connection and community, intimacy and not distance, are far more crucial. Human values such as how we treat the other, be the other human or android are the crucial issues, and not our technological sophistication. Relating to other is not just about our emotional health, but relationship itself is a way of knowing. Moreover, for Bezold, it is not so much survival but thrival that is crucial.

However, for Goonatalike as well as for David Comings (Director of Medical Genetics at the City of Hope National Medical Centre in the United States and a researcher in the area of human behavioral disorders), the impact of genetics is foundational since it unlocks our evolutionary keys.  Gregory Stock (Director of the Program on Medicine, Technology and Society at UCLA) points out that with germ line engineering it is just not the individual’s genes that are being transformed but future generations as well.[2]

Writes Stock:[3]

Technology seems to have progressed to the point now where it is turning back upon us and is reshaping us (or has the potential to reshape us) in the same way that it has reshaped the world around us. This would lead us to believe that this is an absolute landmark in human history and perhaps in the history of life, because now we are beginning to alter the blueprint of life itself and seize control of our own evolution.

To the issue that the complexity of the human genome is such that manipulation will prove problematic, Stock reminds that developments in computers and technology will allow us to manage such complexity.

However, perhaps it is that life itself is so complex and any attempt to engineer life (or society) will always by its very nature have side-affects, that these “complications” are part of the human predicament, just as there is no free lunch, there is no free experiment. This indeed may be the very nature of intelligence. Ignorance does not diminish but expands with specific kinds of knowledge!  This is especially the case when knowledge is framed outside is various contexts. These include how the intellect itself is constructed: as the only way of knowing or as one of many ways of knowing. As well, whether the intellect is seen as divorced from identity or whether it can be used to expand the self beyond class, race, gender, civilization and human definitions.

The long-term future of humanity thus cannot be divorced from the self (and how it is imagined) that is engaged in this activity.

Ethics and the encounter with the Other

How will intelligence look like in the future? Will it be human or artificial? What will be the boundaries? Advances in AI are so quick that it is now defined as whatever machines can’t do today, since tomorrow they will be able to. How long will it be before judicial decision-making is done by AI know-bots, asks futurist James Dator? Will nano-technology make scarcity irrelevant creating a world of unending material bliss? Or will it be the development of our spiritual qualities that will be far more important, asks Barbara Marx Hubbard, director of the Foundation for Conscious Evolution? She imagines the internet, travel and increased emphasis on inner transformation creating a global planetary consciousness – a noosphere. But will we be able to move from egocentric consciousness to spiritual ego-less consciousness, concerned with authentic dialogue between civilizations, asks philosopher Ashok Gangadean?  It is not so much the technology but our relationship with others, be they aliens, clones or robots that is far more important, he and others argue. Tony Judge takes the conversation deeper, asking us to think how the metaphors and language we use to frame such issues limits us, how we force ourselves into simplistic notions of self/other; materialism/spirituality, and technology/society. Indeed, he challenges us to go beyond flat-land reductionism to complex layered depth. Political scientist Inayatullah as well suggests that epistemological impoverishment is our greatest challenge. Modernity and postmodernism continue to negate the richness of who we have been and can be.

It is this impoverishment that leads to an analysis of the present and future that remain at the level of the most visible. Of concern is forecasting new technologies instead of exploring what they will mean to variation social groups as well why our evolutionary route has favored technologies of domination and power, instead of technologies of communication and consciousness. Indeed, in the final conference this division was best expressed by Physicist Michio Kaku and Evolutionary theorist, Erwin Laszlo. Kaku focused on the genetic and artificial intelligence revolution and how it will create a dramatically better and different future for all – new products, increased wealth and a global cultural and governance system. In contrast Laszlo argued that up to now we have been engaged in extensive evolution characterized by control, conquest and colonization. Humanity now needed to develop intensive evolution, focused on cooperation, communication with the other and with nature, not only through language but extra-sensory means. At heart then is the encounter with the other (including the other in ourselves)– we will attempt to control and command or cooperate and mutually evolve? Of course, there will be stunning new technologies, new life forms – genetic, artificial and even spiritual, Sarkar’s[4] idea of microvita – but most important is how will we treat the others we encounter, the aliens far away and near, human-made, human discovered, and those that discover us. Will our perceived differences lead us to conclude that they are evil and thus to be destroyed, as common in current geo-political paradigms.

The evidence from these meetings was mixed. The concern with ascertaining if intelligence had racial and gender variation appeared to move science towards a politics of eugenics – of concern not with humanity as a whole but with one’s own class or racial group. At the same time, others argue that there are many types of intelligence in the world and poverty, overpopulation were best explained by external and internal colonialism – that power was far more important. This in its most banal form was expressed in the nature versus nurture debate (and strangely E.O. Wilson argued that the debate was over). In its more complex form this was expressed as agency versus structure. In which ways could humans transform their predicament? Which structures – class, capitalism, communism, feudalism, patriarchy – mitigate against social transformation? And: was human agency only limited to the rational action of humans or where there other unconscious forces, mythic forces as well as the collective consciousness and unconsciousness at work?

The deeper framework for this discussion was the debate between the one factor theorists and complexity approaches. The former was largely expressed by closet social Darwinists (find the right mix of genes and the future can be bright) as well as those committed to consciousness transformation (if we only we can behave better). The latter by complexity theorists (the ethics, context and politics of knowledge), that there are multiple factors that include visible crisis such as environmental degradation but that these factors have multiple levels of understanding. That is, behind environmental degradation are not just policies of wealth generation but the conquest oriented worldview and metaphors that organize such a vision of the self and other. Merely changing ideas is not enough. Institutional and consciousness change is needed: a new culture plus new rules that transcend national governance structures.

This view was, for example, expressed by academic Wendell Bell. For him, peace culture and peace institutions are both needed.  Until we begin peace and reconciliation processes at the minutest – in the family and on the school yard – and the grandest, at the level of the United Nations, we can not progress.

Ethicists such as Yersu Kim, former Director of the UNESCO Project on Global Ethics, agree, believing that more than ever, now is the time to negotiate a globally agreed upon ethical framework, to move science to public space, and to ask tough questions of the science and technology revolution. If we don’t the future will continue to be created through “Saturday night laboratories,” where science will create the future without the regulatory eye of society. Indeed, astrophysicst Eric Chaisson believes that ethics, evolution and energy are implicated in each other, they can not be discussed separately.

However, there was resistance to these two approaches. A few argued that global ethics would lead to a world government that would take away individual freedoms and rights. The second that ethics and science must be delinked, that science is an objective process with ethics coming afterwards and not beforehand.

A third point of tension was what would be the nature of ethics. Historians such as Howard Didsbury argued that ethical notions of what world we would want to live in must be based on the do’s and don’ts of the world’s great religions, others such as Dator forcefully comment that global ethics must not be based on our historical experiences.  The past will not help us deal with the ethical problems being created by new life forms.  Only a far more flexible process and future-based ethics approach can help.  For Clement Chang, Founding President of Tamkang University, the key is the golden mean, creating a society that is neither too scientific nor too religious, neither too materialistic nor too spiritual. It was this middle path in which humanity can find its direction. This Confucian approach, he argues, is the central ethical principle in navigating the future.  This was also expressed with the Sanskrit word, Prama – or dynamic balance. Prama calls for inner and outer balance but not in a static sense.  The feudal mind in science and religion had to be challenged, argued Inayatullah. What this means is that dissent is crucial for the survival of the species. Anytime any system became hegemonic, it has to be resisted. This approach was considered contentious by many scientists. While they believed that religion had to be challenged, they argued that science was bringing truth and well-being for all, and it was outside of reproach. Its abuse could be criticized but not the project and methodology of science itself.

This tension was not resolved in any fashion, indeed, appeared unresolvable since it was a root myth.

Central then to the debate on ethics and the long-term future  is the issue of is there one universal science or can there be more than one science? Cultural critic and philosopher of science, Zia Sardar (author of Postmodernity and the Other, Orientalism, Chaos for Beginners) argues that there can be different ways to know the real. This is not just an issue of different civilizations asking different questions, focusing inquiry on their own pressing problems, but rather that ways of knowing are multiple. In contrast, scientists at FFF meetings such as Robert Shapiro (author of The Human Blueprint and Planetary Dreams) argues strongly that science is universal and objective. There is only science, and not feminist or Islamic, or Indian/Buddhist science.  Just as science has evolved to the objective, sociology will move to a behavioral scientific approach instead of its current critical, poststructural – politics perspective. Those who wish not to enjoy science had that right, however.

For social scientists, however, the issue of values, of ethics is at the heart of the matter. Ethics must be explicit within science and not an afterthought. What type of humans are we, do we want, and what are our boundaries, are not merely technological questions but political and moral issues. We have a responsibility to future generations to not create a dystopia – a Brave New World. Indeed, this was a central critique of the presentation by Kaku. His image of the future foreclosed the future, it did not open up alternatives, rather as he said: “ get on the train (of liberalism, science and technology) or forever be left behind.”

Thus for scientists, science is largely value free, and even if leading to awe and wonder, as physicist/cosmologist Brian Swimme (author of The Hidden Heart of the Cosmos: The Universe is a Green Dragon) reminds us, it is generally an enterprise devoid of values. It is precisely this issue that others such as biologist Elisabeth Sahtouris contest. She sees a new science emerging that is value-laden, with reality as complex, chaotic and not divorced from cosmic consciousness. Indeed, at the very root of who we are, of what is real, is consciousness.  As many argued, there are no value-free positions, a value-free science is impossible.  This however does not mean that rigour, systematic inquiry and empirical truths should be abandoned, rather that science must include issues of ethics, public knowledge, alternative ways of knowing as part of its charge, and not as an externality. The meanings we give to the material world (and the epistemes and social structures that frame these meanings) are as important as the material world itself.

What then is the appropriate frame from which to view the future? Can the future be determined by one variable, or is the future far more complex, multi-factorial with emergence (consciousness or new life forms or new solutions) a central possibility? Indeed, this is the critique of geneticist formulations of the future, touched upon above. It is not intelligence that is being measured but the ability to take an IQ test.  There is no one gene for intelligence, rather, there are a combination of factors, genetic, cultural, spiritual, and access to wealth that define intelligence. Thus, imagining a future where gene therapy leads to enhanced human intelligence is trite since other factors are ignored, and the social cannot be held in abeyance. In this sense, assuming that exponential increases in the internet (creating more information) in genetics (creating smarter humans) will reduce human ignorance forgets that ignorance is part of knowledge, and not separate from it. We could find out that new knowledge only expands our ignorance. It is not only that there are wildcards but there are unthoughts.

The framework for knowledge is thus episteme-based. The episteme – the boundaries of what is knowable – is not stable but changes through history. Thus, what seems as complete knowledge to one generation will seem like magic or maya to another. The response then to the long-term future should be one of humility, of an ever expanding unknown, mystery.  In this sense, projecting a world where one particular perspective on reality, whether positivism  (science and technology) or cultural relativism or a particular ideology, liberalism or socialism, claims victory ignores the contradictions of history and future.

This is not to say that insights into human suffering, into identifying the causes of diseases will be necessarily impossible, no luddite position is taken, but rather that truth is context-based.

Population Dynamics

Another central debate was between the majority such as author Michael Hart and Glayde Whitney (Psychologist, neuroscientist) and Arthur Jensen (author of the G Factor) who see overpopulation (as well as illegal immigration to OECD nations) as one of the biggest hurdles facing humanity, and others, such as Sardar, who see population as a symptom of deeper issues.  Less focused on immigration is the environmental position which argues that overpopulation in poor nations and piggish resource consumption in OECD nations damages the world’s ecosystem (a position elegantly argued by Sir Crispin Tickell and Worldwatch Institute editorial director, Ed Ayres). Generally, many believe that overpopulation creates a vicious cycle where the poor and the third world overproduce while the intelligent and the wealthy first world underproduce. Not only is the future racial make-up of the planet in problematic balance, but over the long-term, the stupid will rule the world –the human genome will be damaged. Worse, feared some, genetic technology could be stolen by rogue nations or individuals.

Far less convinced with this argument, indeed, seeing it is foundationally evil, is the argument that population is a symptom of inequity and a fear of the future. Kerala, for example, a state in India, has achieved low population growth, partly because there is a strong social security system. Women have control over their bodies and their futures. Access to wealth, technology is possible, as is human dignity. In contrast in areas where patriarchy is dominant, or colonialism from the centere (whether the dominant ethnic group or colonial power) reigns than the only resource individuals have are other people.

Humans should be thus seen as being endowed with creative potential, who given appropriate social structures can expand their horizons and improve their well-being. While not all will test well in IQ tests, all have the possibility to do well in the sorts of intelligence that matter to them, and the futures they want to create.  Again, this tension of the role of political and definitional power was not resolved in the seminars of the larger conference.

Beyond the planet

But in case the population problem is not solved there is always outer space. Professor Allen Tough of the University of Toronto says moving beyond the planet is a necessary process for commercial, survival, and idealistic reasons (or creating a sanctuary as Robert Shapiro imagined). Already one entrepreneur has begun hiring for a hotel in space. If there is a nuclear winter, at least some of the human family would survive. Space exploration can lead to contact with other sorts of intelligence, which would force us to genuinely reflect on what it means to be human. It would be the social scientist’s dream, finally having something to compare our planetary neurosis’ with.  And if we meet no one in space, then it may be our destiny to go forth and multiply, argues space writer Steven Dick.

Can the future be known?

Most participants at the symposiums cautioned that the future especially the long-term 1000-year future cannot be known. Not only are there too many factors to predict, but there are unknown unknowns. We don’t even know which wild cards to focus on, although writer Fred Pohl argues that science fiction has already given us great insights as to what the next 1000 years may bring us.  Still, just as the long-term past is difficult to pin point, so the long-term future is foggy. Fact becomes fiction and truth becomes fantasy.

The crux of this issue is not predicting the future, but enhancing humanity’s capacity and confidence to create desired futures, and to create participatory processes in which these aspirations can influence local and global policy.

Directed Evolution

However, at another level, a grander level, the issue of participation is not one focused on human concerns of governance but larger issues of evolution.  Argue philosophers that it is directed evolution that could lead to the challenge of creating more capable humans. This does not, however, have to be a debate on genetic enhancement – which will occur nonetheless, given current trends – but a discussion on the creation of wealthier societies so that basic needs can be accessed by all, so that human potential could develop.  Dr. Meng Kin Lim, an aerospace physician from Singapore, comments that it is the Rawlsian moral equation (from John Rawls A Theory of Justice) that is needed – social equality has to remain the most important principle in our quest to enhance human intelligence. Ultimately, this will be what globalization is really be about – a world government or governance system that guarantees a level playing field so that all humans have the opportunity to expand their intelligence.

But what type of governance system will it be? Taking a macrohistorical perspective, there are only four plausible structures. First a world empire run by one nation or civilization. Second, a world church/ummah/temple where power resides in the normative space of one civilization/religion. Third, a world economy, where the flow of wealth, capital accumulation is far more important and politics is located within nation-states, territories organized around history, language, or other categories. In a fourth possibility, there are mini-systems, autarkies. However, the fourth possibility is unstable as empires, churches and economies globalize them, make them universal. Local self-reliant mini-cultural systems are only possible within a context of a world government structure, a strong polity.  Since no one religion or empire is likely to become victorious, a world economy is more likely. However, since the nation-state is increasingly porous, the world economy/nation state model is now unstable. It appears that the latter alternative (a world government with mini-cultural systems) is quite possible in the very long-term.

Survival

As we venture outward into space, as we create new life forms, expand our intelligence and reduce social and civilizational injustice, we should however never forget the precarious nature of life. We may not even survive.  Phillip Tobias, one of the world’s leading archeologists, tells us that 90% of the world’s species have become extinct.  We may be next. However, even as he cautions, by tracing human evolution, he offers a story of hope for the future, of humans learning from mistakes, and proceeding slowly onwards.

While most scientists assert that evolution does not have a direction but is random, others point out that we are already intervening in human evolution, we are already directing the future, we just need to do a good job of it – to make sure we create a better future, not make a gigantic mess of it all.

We must ensure to anticipate the intended consequence of our interventions, to engage in, what in neurobiologist Terry Deacon – who is currently engaged in research using cross-species transplantation of embryonic brain –  calls the simulation imperative.  If we don’t begin to consider the long-term alternative futures ahead, if we don’t create the necessary global institutional foresight to anticipate the future, we may not make it to the next evolutionary step.

Unfortunately, while the FFF seminars are part of many similar conversations throughout the world, they have shown that we are far – at least in terms of leading thinkers – from any shared view of what are the critical factors in humanity’s survival and thrival, indeed, in what is the appropriate framework for embarking on such a project.

However, the points of tension are clearer. To summarize these include:

One factor versus complexity
Social Darwinism versus ethical evolution
One science versus many ways of knowing
Extensive versus intensive evolution
Overpopulation versus gender empowerment
Environmental and cultural catastrophe versus technological salvation
Global ethics versus national rights
Materialistic versus ideational approaches
Consciousness transformation or institutional change

Can these factors be bridged, transcended? Lets hope so!

References

[1] Waldrop, M., Complexity, New York, Touchstone, 1992, p.284.

[2] Stock, Gregory and Campbell, John. Engineering the Human Germline. London, Oxford University

[3] http://research.mednet.ucla.edu/pmts/germline/questions/qwatershed.htm

[4] Inayatullah, Sohail and Fitzgerald, Jennifer, eds.,  Transcending Boundaries. P.R Sarkar’s Theories of Individual and Social Transformation. Maleny, Gurukul, 1999. Bill Halal and Graham Molitor also point to the emergent technologies of consciousness, accessing reality through deeper levels of the mind. In contrast Jo Coates found any discussion of psychic and spiritual consciousness, in any time frame, ridiculous. This of course underlies the integrated (or ideational) versus empiricist tension.

Perfect Information and the Net Bazaar (2000)

“Will the Internet transform the role of the middle-man creating friction-free capitalism or will it transform the very nature of capitalism by creating a global peoples’ market?asks Sohail Inayatullah

While asking for a fare quote, my travel agent responded: “I’ll call you back, I have to check the Internet.”

I thought, wait a second, I too can check the Internet. I did. Who needs travel agents?  www.travel.com.au has a wealth of information – the best deals –  for the flights I need. Then came the endless destination rules, and the problem of flight availability. I was quickly exhausted.

Back to my travel agent it was. However, this time, I could give her my suggestions, ask her to check routing through Singapore, Kuala Lumpur as well as Bangkok.

While the Internet will not replace the travel agent, it has empowered me, made me into a smarter consumer. I have more information on routes and prices. But I will not spend a half hour only to find out that the days I want to travel are unavailable. She can do that for me much faster. And she has a human face and voice.

Historically, it was the middle-man that has both provided the grease for capitalism and has been the bane of the consumer. The middle-man gets the cut, negotiates distribution, delivering, marketing and price between the producer and I – he is the information broker. That cut keeps the economy going, lets producers focus on what they do best (make commodities, goods and provide services), and helps me decide what I want to buy.

But with the growth of the Internet, is the middle-man still needed? Or is the Internet itself the new middle-man, websites skimming dollars from producers through their advertising arms?  The middle-man becoming the medium itself. Of course, the Internet is a far cheaper middle-man, dramatically reducing transaction costs, from 1$ to 1 cent in many industries, banks, for example, reports Chuck Martin in his book, Net Future.

While I still currently need my travel agent what if in a few years a  travel.com site came on with far more advanced artificial intelligence  knowbot – finding me the right price, airline schedule, with ease?  Would my travel agent still have work? Will her role as broker of information remain intact even with AI developments? Or will she need to reinvent herself as web designer, an artificial intelligence engineer?

Perfect Information

Certainly the Internet will increase efficiency, costs will go down. For General Electric an appliance service call via phone costs $5 to execute but only 20 cents via the web. Costs will keep on dropping. Labour from poorer areas can do much of the e-service work since geography is web-irrelevant. When I emailed the United Airlines site asking for information on my Mileage Plus/Points card (I had forgotten my password), the response could have been from the US (a high wage area) or from India (a cheaper area). United saves money, I save time, India moves up the world economy, and everyone is happy. Well, except the employee in the US, who now has to compete with service personnel throughout the world. Where will she get a job if she can’t retrain herself? She can join the Internet unemployed, or perhaps advertise her services on the Web. Eventually perhaps her Indian counterpart in Bangalore will start her own Net company, and hire her to provide on-line services – true globalization, the freedom of capital and labour.

In the long run what will happen? There are two perspectives. In the first: markets are profitable because information is not perfect, thus helping one to buy low and sell high (other factors are relevant as well: skills, capital, marketing). As information becomes perfect, capitalism faces a crisis, since profits cannot be made.

World Systems thinker Immanuel Wallerstein says it like this: This is the presumed ideal of the free market with no restraints and restrictions. At that point the buyers would simply go from one seller to the next until they found the lowest possible price because they would have perfect information and the lowest possible price would soon be battered down to an infinitesimal amount over the cost of production price and you couldn’t make a profit. This is in fact what happens with most of the poorly profitable industries in the world. If today you don’t make very much money from selling clothing, its because everybody’s doing it.

With everybody doing it on the Net, will profits keep on shrinking as customers and markets keep on getting smarter? Will the Internet fundamentally transform capitalism creating a world bazaar where goods and services are matched perfectly according to need? No monopolies, no government featherbedding. Is this the end of corporate capitalism and state socialism, and the beginning of a global peoples market?

The only way out for producers is to have the State come in and protect  their business. But because of globalization and the freedom of the Net (information wants to be free), this is far more difficult now to achieve.  Consumers with more information means a much more difficult time for producers. They need relative monopolies, relatively few sellers. Since the start-up costs on the Net are relatively minor, new sellers can come in quickly.

The bet on Amazon.com (capitalised at 36 billion US$) is that those who enter first and gain brand recognition and high-portal visibility will make profits. Borders’ – a bookstore that does make profits, has great coffee, is capitalized at 1 billion US$ – stock continues to go down as profits go up. Borders is a late comer to the Web, and thus is considered a dinosaur in the long run. This is the principle of increasing returns, of lock-ins, and not diminishing returns. Who gets advantage first, will keep it.

The bet is also on the medium itself. Internet based businesses will do better than brick businesses. “Broadband lets producers skip the whole physical stage – especially for products such as CDs, books and videos that straddle the boundary between physical and digital – and just shoot the bits straight from their mainframe to your hard drive,” writes John Rubino for  Thestreet.com. And once, or if, nano-technology is proven then physical products can be downloaded (materialized) as well.  Either way, middle-man companies are doomed.

The second perspective on the future of the middle-man is that the Net will benefit the consumer as he or she will get the lower price.  Competition will bring profits to a bare minimum, where no new entrants will be attracted, but a sufficient number remain to continue competing. Thus, in the very short term we will have a massive shake-out in the industry, with only a few surviving, and thousands of Net start-ups hitting the dirt. The strong will survive and eventually the Internet will become a mature industry (right now probably half way through its cycle with productivity gains just kicking in).

What type of information?

It is not only that consumers have more, quicker, and easily accessible, information, but they have now information that reflects their aspirations, their ideal standards.

Thus, demands for new types of information will transform business. Standards have gone through three phases. The first, writes Clement Bezold, of the Institute for Alternative Futures (www.altfutures.com), are physical standards, based on a products inherent physical qualities. The second are functional standards (how well it works and how cost effectively). Emerging standards are contextual (demands regarding the larger context of the product’s manufacture, distribution, use and disposal). These are values and aspirations based.  Issues of environmental impact, gender equity, labor fairness, child labour, organic or gene-altered food all become critical information.

These issues are far more crucial for Generation X’ers who are more likely to purchase products that match their values and boycott companies and products that do not.

The Internet allows product information to be far more accessible and advanced technology will allow each product to have total context information available. Consumers can then make decisions based not only on physical and functional standards but on context standards as well, becoming smarter and wiser buyers.  Companies that don’t provide this information will lose out on marketshare, and those who are judged poorly on these social accountability standards will also lose ground.

Writes Bezold, “Smarter markets will give us a clearer choice of both the products we want and the world we are building by buying and using those products.”

Already, says Hazel Henderson, a director of the Calvert Social Investment Fund and the Council of Economic Priorities, social responsibly mutual funds are bringing in billions, competing alongside traditional “lets only make money” funds – the balanced scorecard makes good economic and social sense.

.Com Generation and beyond

But after generation X, what of the .Com generation that has grown up with the Net? Will they still call their travel agent, or having been raised on the Net, will humans be considered slow portals, to be avoided, rocks on the Netsurf?

Most likely they will be far more comfortable with Net grocery shopping, indeed Net everything. Flexibility, immediate delivery, multicultural products will be crucial to them. The Net world will be less of an array of computers and more a global always-on, always-everywhere peoples’ market.

And after them? The Double Helix generation – the designer children who will be born in the 2020’s – won’t even make the distinction between human and Net since they will have been born genetically enhanced, a few even  created in hospital/factories.  The genetic/organic debate will no longer be relevant since by that time all will be human-made.

In the meantime, however, we can expect massive economic transformations. Argues Ronald Coase, the nobel laureate in economics, up to 45% of the economy will be made irrelevant by information advances as we disintermediate (as the middle man and related transaction costs disappear), that is,  $2.5 to $4.5 trillion of the 10 trillion dollar US economy. And with globalism reducing the size of the state bureaucracy, where will the jobs be? Or will be so productive and efficient that jobs and work won’t matter?

What will happen to my travel agent? Will she go on a terminal vacation?

Dr. Sohail Inayatullah can be reached at: s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au and at www.futurists.net.au. He is professor with the International Management Centres and author of a cdrom on forecasting the future. He is a fellow of the World Futures Studies Federation and visiting academic at Queensland University of Technology. Recent books include Transcending Boundaries and Situating Sarkar.

Impact of New Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) on Socioeconomic and Educational Development of Africa and the Asia-Pacific (2000)

A PILOT STUDY

Levi Obijiofor and Sohail Inayatullah with Tony Stevenson

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This preliminary research on ICT adoption in Africa and the Asia-Pacific suggests that there are serious barriers to their use in educational and socioeconomic development, such as issues of infrastructure support, access to the ICTs, training and skills development, and hierarchical social relations which determine who has access to ICTs. Generally ICTs are considered appropriate, even though there remain concerns over economic priorities, basic needs or computers.

However, the implementation of ICTs is occurring in a context where the cultural and institutional barriers are not well addressed. The assumption often made is that if one just purchases a few computers and modems, a post-industrial society can magically result. Africans and those in the Asia-Pacific are generally in the position of consumers and thus in a position where they cannot yet define the media in their terms.

At the same time, conservative attitudes entrenched in Asia-Pacific countries and concern over basic needs inhibit appreciation of the importance of new ICTs. For example, in Fiji and the Philippines, people believe ICTs are not the most important needs in their societies and that people can always find a way to get along if ICT use becomes a matter of “life and death”.

Basic education, equipping schools with enough texts and reducing the teacher-student ratio, and seeing culturally relevant programs on television seem to be the major concerns of most of the respondents. There is also fear that the Internet could corrupt the morals of their society through easy access to pornography and other culturally “reprehensible” material.  The use of ICTs for interactive education, for pedagogy that leads to communication and information richness is not yet  adequately understood or developed.

ICTS AS APPROPRIATE

However, even with these words of caution, in Africa and Asia-Pacific, almost every interviewee considered ICTs as appropriate to their society for various reasons, even in the face of poverty. The reasons were as follows: for Africa,

·         ICTs were generally seen as the basic tool for survival in the next century;

·         ICTs were seen to enhance efficiency in the workplace;

·         there was a high belief in ICT ability to increase the ease and speed of social communication and at the same time obviate the problem of transportation;

·         ICTs help solve socio-economic problems;

·         among university academics, ICTs help them reach out to colleagues in other parts of the world and keep them up to date with developments in their disciplines;

·         there was the belief that ICTs help to monitor crime in society, and

·         there was the ultimate belief that ICT usage will make Africa to become part of the global trend.

As one respondent commented:

They help to do things better, they show a measure of development. And if we’re going to be plugged into the world, particularly in the next century, on the continent of Africa and…, we necessarily must be part and parcel of the information age. And information technology is an imperative that Africa would miss at its own risk.

In the Asia –Pacific countries studied, specific reasons for the use of ICTs included:

·         online technology enables local doctors to consult with their international colleagues and other doctors in the scattered island communities;

·         the most appropriate technologies were seen as the ones that enabled the communities and organisations to communicate more efficiently (example was given of e-mail);

·         ICTs promote distance education at all levels;

·         instantaneous availability of data through ICTs;

·         the future of education is heavily dependent on ICTs;

·         Internet access helps productivity, innovation and entrepreneurship to flourish;

·         ICTs are useful for job search by youths; and

·         ICTs are essential for the knowledge era.

As respondents said:

… we can’t deny that the next century would be a knowledge century and the world is developing towards becoming more and more knowledge-intensive, and IT will be the technology for development of four aspects of man’s activities: industry; manufacturing services; farming, agriculture and fisheries; and health services. (Phil/WP)

I’d say it’s appropriate. I’d like to be in touch with the world pretty much instantaneously… I think the Internet is the most appropriate new ICT to develop because it’s information as you require, when you require it. (Fiji/TP)

INHIBITING FACTORS

Against the background of the perceived appropriateness of ICTs to Africa and Asia-Pacific, the crucial research question was: why are these technologies, given their usefulness, not yet commonplace in all the countries we studied? Among the African respondents, a wide range of factors inhibit the widespread introduction and use of the new technologies. These factors include:

·         ignorance about the importance of and need for ICTs which makes even those rich enough to acquire them apathetic to ICTs;

·         general poverty which leads to the perception of computers, for example, as alien and luxury acquisitions;

·         poor maintenance and repair culture in which spare parts and technical ‘experts’ from the manufacturers are imported whenever the technologies break down; this leads to waste of resources, time and money;

·         poor infrastructural support base; examples include inefficient electricity and telephone systems;

·         lack of support from the government leading to underfunding of science and technology programmes in tertiary institutions;

·         illiteracy and lack of basic computing skills; these two points are closely related — in the African countries studied, tertiary institutions are funded by government and it follows that where government is apathetic to the need for ICTs, the educational institutions will not be provided with adequate funds to acquire and teach these technologies;

·         lack of a science and technology policy; this has consequences at two levels – lack of policy impedes the growth and development of a culture of science and technology, and also, at the educational level, downplays the significance of science and technology in the perception of students); and

·         the absence of democracy which feeds political unrest and the unwillingness of foreign investors to invest in the area of ICTs.

·         perception of the technologies (example, computer) as a status symbol or statement of one’s hierarchy in society.

Thus in Africa, ignorance is far more major obstacle and those aware, mostly the educated and literate people in the private sector, say as much as they appreciate the need and importance of ICTs, the economic situation in their countries and general poverty make it difficult for people who need these ICTs to acquire them. In Ghana, for example, the per capita income is US$400 and the average cost of a computer (plus modem and telephone line, etc) is US$1500. Also in Nigeria, to acquire a computer/modem, ISP subscription and telephone line would require the total annual income of a graduate. Compared to the Asia-Pacific countries studied, more people in Africa see the need for these ICTs inspite of traditional ways of doing things but are hampered by poverty.

What are the reasons for their lack of  diffusion in the Asia-Pacific? A range of factors were seen as inhibiting the use of new ICTs.

·         high cost of the ICTs leading to restriction of access to the new technologies;

·         conservative attitudes – people are comfortable maintaining the status quo, doing things the way they are used to;

·         lack of deregulation and government legislation which gives monopoly to a few information technology companies;

·         poverty and harsh economic climate;

·         infrastructural problems such as inadequate telephone lines and lines cutting off when someone is logged onto the Internet;

·         health and social welfare commitments undercutting attention to ICTs;

·         lack of basic education and computing skills;

·         political culture which discourages open sharing of information (Philippines)

On the whole, in all the countries and regions we studied, we found that ICT growth and development are being driven by the private sector – private businesses — with token support from the government. Many saw the future of ICTs as positive and believed that their use in health and education could be quite dramatic. Mind-boggling, with only our imagination as limits was the type of language used by participants.

Developing African and Asia-Pacific countries are caught in a Catch-22 situation: without using these new technologies, their future generations will further lag behind and will find themselves further impoverished. If they use these technologies without addressing some of the concerns and needs of their societies, they could be placing their carts before their horses. What is needed most is effective and efficient, not to mention wise, telecommunications and culture policy, as well as research that informs such policy.

The new communication technologies have their strengths and drawbacks, they should not merely be seen as apolitical tools but as embedded in culture, politics and our mutual futures.

IMPLEMENTATION RECOMMENDATIONS

Moving this research to the implementation phase, we recommend the following:

·         Implementation must be linked to local problems, specifically to poverty alleviation. This linkage must be direct, showing stakeholders the benefits of using ICTs for economic growth.

·         Implementation must also show how ICTs can transform education, making it far more interactive and empowering for students and professors/teachers. CD-ROMS and access to the web must not only be inexpensive, but as much as possible be locally driven, based on local content.

·         Implementation must help transform users of ICTs in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from consumers to producers of new knowledge and wealth. Dissemination of hardware must include software support, institutional linkages, and servicing. This must be done in the context of local cultural practices including those that inhibit ICT use (hierarchical  institutional practices).

·         Implementation must occur within a policy context guided by participatory action research, where all stakeholders in an iterative manner define their needs, goals and concerns.

IMPACT OF NEW INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES (ICTs) ON SOCIOECONOMIC AND EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF AFRICA AND THE ASIA-PACIFIC:

A PILOT STUDY

Levi Obijiofor and Sohail Inayatullah with Tony Stevenson

Preamble

This is a report of a UNESCO-sponsored study of four African countries and two Asia-Pacific countries. The countries in which this study was conducted are Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Uganda (Africa), Fiji and the Philippines (Asia-Pacific). The study was conducted over the period January 1998 and April 1999.

Aims

The study aimed to determine the:

·        specific ICT needs of Africa and Asia-Pacific regions;

·        current status of the emerging technologies and plans for their diffusion;

·        appropriateness of ICTs to cultural, regional and national contexts and their replicability across geography and culture; and

·        problems and opportunities associated with ICT diffusion in the two regions

·        perceptions of the likely futures of ICT diffusion.

Research Methodology

This study adopted an interpretive research strategy which allows a researcher to interact with a social group being studied as well as enable the researcher to observe and record the processes of decision‑making and social practices. According to Fetterman (1989), “the ethnographer conducts research in the native environment to see people and their behaviour given all the real‑world incentives and constraints… Understanding the world ‑‑ or some small fragment of it ‑‑ requires studying it in all its wonder and complexity” (pp. 41‑42). Patton (1990) vividly describes the situation thus: “The neutral investigator enters the research arena with no axe to grind, no theory to prove, and no predetermined results to support.  Rather, the investigator’s commitment is to understand the world as it is, to be true to complexities and multiple perspectives as they emerge, and to be balanced in reporting both confirming and disconfirming evidence” (p. 55).

The four African and two Asia-Pacific countries selected for the study were chosen purposively. Owing to funding problems, we could not conduct the study in as many Asia-Pacific countries as we did in Africa.

Despite its political problems, Nigeria is regarded as a major economic and military power not only in the West African sub-region but also in the whole of Africa. It is also regarded as the most populous country in Africa. It was thus chosen for inclusion in this study. Our question was:  To what extent have the ICTs impacted on the country’s sociopolitical and economic development?

Ghana is one of the emerging economic success stories in Africa and it was thus considered appropriate to investigate the status and impact of the new ICTs in such a country. Similarly, Uganda is regarded as one of Africa’s economic success stories under the leadership of President Yoweri Museveni and thus it was included in the investigation of new ICTs have impacted or are impacting Uganda’s economic development. Cote d’Ivoire — formerly known as Ivory Coast — is a major French-speaking country in the West African sub-region and was included as well. The Philippines was included because of its strong non-governmental organization culture, in the hope of better understanding of how ngos view ICT use and diffusion. Fiji was chosen, both for its multicultural mix, as well as for its housing of the University of South Pacific, the premiere university in the Pacific.

People interviewed in the African countries included Internet Service Providers (ISPs), communication and computer science academics in leading universities, computer and telecommunications equipment retailers, government policy makers in ministries and agencies, and editors of major newspapers. In Fiji, we also interviewed an official of Telecom Fiji Ltd., an information technology official of the University of the South Pacific, a manager of Fiji TV Ltd., a managing director of a technological company, five secondary school teachers, five postgraduate students and five business women. In the Philippines, we interviewed a former secretary of science and technology in the previous Philippines government, an official of the Philippine Greens, a program manager in a United Nations agency in Manila, president of one of the local universities, and an official of the national computer centre.  As a condition for agreeing to be interviewed, some of the respondents in all the countries requested anonymity either due to the sensitive positions they occupied in government offices or because they did not want to be identified. We have tried to protect the identities of the respondents by referring only to their country of origin and not by their real names whenever a comment is reproduced in the analysis section of this report. A total of 47 people were interviewed in the four African countries while 24 people were interviewed in Fiji and the Philippines.

Methods of data collection

The methods used in collecting data for this study consisted of semi‑structured personal interviews, focused group interviews, examination of historical documents and personal observation. The adoption of multiple methods or triangulation in social research has been endorsed by various researchers because they help to overcome flaws inherent in the use of one method.  For example, Patton (1990) argues that “Combinations of interviewing, observation, and document analysis are expected in much social science field work.”  He argues that studies which adopt only one method “are more vulnerable to errors linked to that particular method… than studies that use multiple methods in which different types of data provide cross‑data validity checks” (Patton, 1990: 187‑188).

Research questions

The major questions that underpinned this study were:

·        Do ICTs transform the debate on educational and development theories and practice? In other words, do they challenge or reinforce the old paradigms of development?

·        What are the ICT needs of Africa and Asia-Pacific countries?

·        What is the current status of the emerging technologies and plans for their diffusion in these regions?

·        How appropriate are ICTs to cultural, regional and national contexts and their replicability across geography and culture;

·        What sociocultural and economic factors enhance or inhibit the use and adoption of new ICTs? and

·        What are the problems and opportunities associated with ICT diffusion in Africa and the Asia-Pacific?

·        What are the futures of ICTs in Africa and the Asia-Pacific, and are there differences between preferred and likely futures of ICT development?

Literature: overview

This review examines current arguments and debates concerning the impact, real and imagined, of the new information and communication technologies in developing societies, in particular Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Given the rapid changes in the nature and structure of the ICTs as well as the claims and counter claims about the impact of ICTs on socioeconomic development, a review of this nature is important to help policy makers and organisations committed to the development of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region to separate fact from wishful thinking and to focus on the most useful and practical strategies and technologies. While there is evidence of the usefulness of ICTs in many developed societies, questions of their appropriateness in a range of situations remain. In other words, are the new ICTs appropriate for every developing society, in particular Asia-Pacific region and Africa? If they are, which strategies and which particular ICTs are more effective for educational purposes and for socioeconomic development?

The new information and communication technologies (ICTs) are widely perceived as major tools for kickstarting ailing economies and consequently assist developing societies `catch up’ with the developed world, including those groups that have lost out of the mainstream of development. To what extent do the new ICTs facilitate the education of the mass of people in Asia-Pacific region and Africa, and uplift the conditions of disadvantaged groups in these societies? Do ICTs allow them to empower themselves without having to lose their unique cultures, that is, without having to develop? Indeed, are the new technologies appropriate for the development of traditional societies? Do they (ICTs) fit the local indigenous cultures? In essence, will the new ICTs launch these societies and communities thereof on the path of socioeconomic development or will they subject them to further dependence? For example, it has often been argued that, without the successful adoption and implementation of the new ICTs in the developing world, future generations in these societies will further lag behind. However, research is yet to inform on the problems and opportunities of ICTs adoption. These questions are examined in this review essay.

The emergence of the new information and communication technologies (ICTs) — examples include the Internet, computers, interactive multimedia systems, and digital telecommunications — has dramatically altered theoretical and practical assumptions about the role of communication technologies in development. Today, the role of the ICTs in developed and developing societies has become the subject of academic focus and research, regional and international seminars and conferences. As the new millennium approaches and as we contend with the expanded uses of the information superhighway, the interface between communication and development calls for serious reconsideration. While advocates are hopeful that the new technologies would provide urgent solutions to present and future problems, pessimists disagree, pointing to the dangers and pitfalls of the new communication technologies, such as: (1)  the marketing of pornographic products on the Internet; (2) the damage to children in terms of creating a virtual world divorced from nature; (3)  the perpetration of organised crimes; (3) the likelihood that they may widen the existing gap between the `information rich’ and the `information poor’, and; (4) further cultural impoverishment by continuing the one-way communication between North and South.  More centrally is that ICTs create an information based economy and not a communicative society (Inayatullah and Leggett, 1999).

Background

Long before the emergence of the new information and communication technologies (ICTs), communication and development scholars had argued that there was a strong link between communication technologies — especially mass media technologies — and level of socioeconomic development in a country.  Hence, the mass media of radio, television, newspapers and magazines were regarded as the drivers of socioeconomic development. Leading this campaign were communication scholars such as Everett Rogers, Wilbur Schramm, Lucian Pye, and Daniel Lerner among others. According to their views, a certain number of mass media channels were required in every developing country that wished to be developed. This argument was based on the assumption that the mass media carried within them elements of modernity.  As early as 1958, Daniel Lerner had argued in his seminal book  — The Passing of Traditional Societies — “No modern society functions efficiently without a developed system of mass media” (p. 55). In a similar tone, Lucian Pye stated:

It was the pressure of communications which brought about the downfall of traditional societies. And in the future, it will be the creation of new channels of communication and the ready acceptance of new content of communications which will be decisive in determining the prospects of nation-building (Pye, 1963: 3)

As a reflection of the mood of the era, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) recommended, in 1961, a minimum mass media target for developing countries.  According to UNESCO, “Every country should aim to provide for every 100 of its inhabitants at least 10 copies of daily newspapers, five radio receivers, two cinema seats and two television receivers” (quoted in Yu, 1977: 177). A major assumption underlying this view is that mass media messages reach all segments of a society and that messages, once received, will impact on the greater population in the same way as was intended by the mass media.  However, research evidence has shown that there are factors which limit access to mass media in the rural communities. There are also social and cultural factors which mass media messages must overcome before such messages are accepted or rejected in traditional societies (see, as examples, Grunig, 1971; and Reddi, 1989).

Against this background, it was widely assumed that the mere presence of the mass media led to the transformation of societies and individuals. According to Shore (1980), what was needed in this perspective was to “change the attitudes, values and aspirations of the individuals in the population; from that would result the benefits of modernization with which such change was identified” (p. 20).

It did not take long, however, for communication scholars and world leaders to realise that the link between mass media presence and socioeconomic development could also often be negative, especially in developing societies. According to Lerner and Schramm:

Throughout the less developed regions, people have been led to want more than they can get. This can be attributed in part to the spread of the mass media, which inevitably show and tell people about the good things of life that are available elsewhere … As people in the poor countries were being shown and told about “goodies” available in developed countries, they were also being taught about their own inferiority — at least in terms of wealth and well-being. Recognition of the disparities between the rich and poor countries produced among some a sense of hopelessness, among others a sense of aggressiveness. Both apathy and aggression usually are counterproductive to genuine development efforts (Lerner and Schramm, 1976: 341-342).

Despite the weaknesses in the earlier theoretical assumptions, compelling arguments remained for assuming that new communication technologies hold the key to socioeconomic development of many societies. For instance, advocates of ICTs point to how the Western world experienced the impact of industrial technology and found it to be an indispensable tool of development. The belief then was that if industrial technology aided the socioeconomic growth and development of Western nations, it should also propel socioeconomic growth in developing nations. As Ashby et al (1980) explained: “Industry, especially capital goods industry, was viewed as the leading growth sector of the economy. Rural society in low-income countries was viewed as economically stagnant and culturally tradition bound” (p. 154).  As the rural individual was perceived to be traditional, it followed, according to the dominant Western perspective, that the first objective in any program of development will be to transform traditional societies to `modern’ ones. Against this background, a major question arises: do new ICTs hold the key to the transformation of developing societies? In other words, do they (ICTs) challenge or reinforce the old paradigms of development?

It is not everyone that is overly captivated by the magical effects of the new ICTs. Some have counselled caution over expectations from the new communication technologies. For instance, Kryish (1994) cautions that current predictions for the information superhighway are distinctively similar to predictions made about Cable television in the USA two and a half decades ago. In each era, Kryish argues, advocates depicted the technology as `revolutionary’, predicting that traditional methods of work, play, learning, and commerce would be transformed; that people would carry out their activities in the comfort of their homes, and that the new technologies would provide answers to all problems (Kryish, 1994). Kryish contends that as US Cable TV did not develop as expected, people should not rely too heavily on arguments which promote new technologies as autonomous, revolutionary and utopian.  New technologies exist in certain political and social frameworks, they are embedded, and thus the ways in which they change society are based on these cultural codes. New technologies might make it easier, for example, to work from home, however, this ignores the social function of work, of a place where individuals meet, make friends, find identity. Telecommuting, thus, while transport efficient, may continue the cultural impoverishment, the anomie, that individuals face in large cities (Inayatullah, 1998)

In an analysis of the technological adaptation process of the Maori of New Zealand, Schaniel (1988) explains that new technology may create change in society, and that the direction of change is determined by the nature and function (use) of that technology in the adopting culture (1988: 493-498).

Uses of the new technologies

Tehranian (1990) argues that the new technologies, like the old, should be viewed neither as technologies of freedom nor of tyranny, but basically as technologies of power that lock into existing or emerging technostructures of power. He believes that information technologies play a dual role in society. On one hand, they open up opportunities for centralisation of authority, control and communication typical of the modern industrial state, and on the other hand, they supply alternative channels of cultural resistance and ideological mobilization for opposition forces. The `Big Media’ (such as national press, broadcasting and mainframe computers) are identified with the centralising forces while the `Small Media’ (such as the alternative press, small scale audio visual production and transmission facilities and personal computer networking) provide the avenues for community resistance and mobilization. On this basis, one can argue that the new communication technologies serve the interests of both the privileged and the underprivileged classes in society.

In a related sense, Stevenson, Burkett and Myint (1993) argue that the new communication and information technologies can strengthen the centralised industrial, command economy or decentralise empowerment for finding creative solutions to local and global problems through new social technologies. Increasing globalisation, facilitated by the new technologies, has brought about changes which flow through to local communities. Paradoxically, however, these local communities are forced to make international connections in order to solve local problems.

Technologies and development

The link between technological growth and socioeconomic development is hinged on various arguments. McQuail (1987), for instance, contends that “One clear promise of the new technologies is an increase in communication of all kinds, between individuals and also between persons…” But this argument overlooks the fact that before increased communication can take place, the communicators must have access to the new technologies or must possess the werewithal to purchase the communication tools.

Some researchers have also indicated the need for the new ICTs to address problems of human needs. For instance, while highlighting the significance of telecommunications technology for “some new means of bringing people together”, Stevenson (1991) wonders if the new telecommunications technologies, monopolised by the privileged industrialized world, will be “enough to address the world’s most serious problems of poverty, hunger and alienation.” The implication is that new communication technologies which do not address immediate human needs are not quite useful to human society no matter how effective they may be in increasing communication among people.

Africa’s dilemma

In Africa and elsewhere, arguments as to whether the continent should acquire the new communication technologies have assumed robust dimension. The major issues centre around the question of priorities. Is it appropriate for African leaders to ignore the basic needs of their people and hop onto the bandwagon of the new communication technologies?  Will acquisition of new communication technologies transform African economies, lead to greater food production and improved quality of life, health and housing, overcome poverty and illiteracy, and end internecine civil strifes? Indeed, can Africa thus afford not to adopt new ICTs?

In a world in which the developed and developing countries pursue different goals and priorities based on the different levels of their technological endowments, the new communication technologies are bound to be viewed with both optimism and suspicion. Indeed, it was former president Julius Nyerere of Tanzania who painted a grim picture of the African scene when he reportedly said that while the industrialised world may be travelling to the moon with ease — as a result of their technological advancement — African leaders are still grappling with the problem of how to reach their people in the villages.

Taking the Internet and other emerging electronic networks as an example, Jegede (1995) doubts their ability to accelerate Africa’s development even as he recognizes the need for Africa to share information and ideas with the rest of the world.

If we had everyone in Africa electronically networked today, it would not necessarily develop Africa. In fact, what it would do, and appears to be doing at the moment, is divert attention from all other problems of development making people believe that getting hooked to the superhighway is the panacea for Africa’s problems (p. 221).

Jegede strengthens his case by citing some disturbing statistics about Africa. According to him:

Three quarters of Africa’s population is illiterate (so hooking them to the Internet is out of the question); three quarters of Africa is rural without basic facilities of electricity and telephone (so hooking up to the Internet can only be restricted to the urban areas); three quarters of universities in Africa have depleted library resources, have overworked academics and run computer science departments without computers … and there are currently 200 million personal computers world-wide but less than one percent of them are located in Africa… (Jegede, 1995: 221).

Although Jegede’s views may sound grim or irredeemable, they present an idea of the scale of problems facing Africa in the sphere of communication technologies alone.

Nonetheless, there are individuals who do not share Jegede’s pessimism.  Djamen et al (1995) have argued that “Electronic networking will not only enable Africans access global data but will also help the entire world to access information on Africa in Africa. Thus, the present situation in which Africans do not directly control their own data would be reversed” (pp.  228-233).

Beyond the question of data generation and security/protection, Odedra-Straub (1995) argues that electronic wiring of Africa and the subsequent easy access of Africans to various networks, including the Internet, would not “necessarily mean that the technology and easy access to information will automatically have a positive impact on the development process of Africa” (pp. 225-227). She points out that the adoption of the new technologies in Africa would not be simple and would require “skilled human and financial resources, … in addition to changes in the social, cultural, managerial, political and organisational `environments'” (p. 227).

Perspectives from Asia-Pacific region

With particular reference to the Philippines, de Ayala (1996) foresees changes to large and small scale business processes brought about by the new technologies. Not only will consumers be in closer contact with suppliers and producers, the new technologies will also eventually lead to better educated, more knowledgeable, more critical but less loyal customers. The downside of this development, in a developing economy such as the Philippines, is that the fledgling domestic national markets may be stifled by regional trading blocs and international markets which promote intense competition. On a similar note, Chin (1995) believes that the development of information technology infrastructure in the Philippines rests on the national plan (NITP 2000 program), the objective of which is to create a well-informed computer literate society capable of using information technology as an everyday tool to enhance work and living.

While outlining the enormous potential of the Internet to promote Pacific Islands products and tourism in a global market, Lomas (1995) states that very few people in the Pacific Islands have access to the Internet. Access, availability and efficient services are the telecommunications concerns for widely scattered islands of the Pacific region, some of them with rugged terrain.

Regulating the new communication technologies

Although many governments may be giving top priority to acquisition of the new technologies because they are perceived as pivotal to overall development, there is however a growing anxiety or unease among these governments to curtail the use of the technologies by groups engaging in unauthorised conduct or groups which challenge the authority of various regimes. “Many Asian governments share the dilemma of desiring to control the distribution of information whilst recognising… that national economic and technological development requires increasing access to broadband networks and the information they provide” (Lambert, 1996).  However, these same governments “feel profoundly threatened by the concept of a medium in which they cannot control access to information…”

The question of controlling access to the new technologies is not peculiar to Asia alone. An attempt in 1996 by the United States government to ban “indecent” materials on the Internet was rejected by a US federal judge who ruled that the Internet deserved protection from government legislation. The US government however indicated it would appeal the ruling. At issue here is the challenge posed to individual freedom to communicate as against the desire of various governments to control the moral content or `political correctness’ of what is communicated.

Questions of access

Whatever may be the advantages of the new technologies, the problem of access remains a major concern. Just as access to the mass media is limited in rural areas of developing countries, so too will access to the new technologies be limited to a few affluent people, due mainly to the high costs of the new communication technologies. Take for example a developed country such as Australia where the question of access to the new technologies has resurfaced following the emergence of digital video communication (DVC).  On this, Lennie (1993) observes that potential questions about its use as a new form of interactive television and associated home information services have arisen as a result of the anticipated high cost of DVC for domestic consumption and the increasing privatisation of such services. These imply that disadvantaged groups could have reduced access to information and other needed essential services. At stake here are questions concerning access to and uses of the new technologies, the ability or inability of average citizens to acquire them vis-a-vis the high cost of the new technologies, and their broader impact on socioeconomic development.

Apart from the question of access, fears also exist about the impact of the new technologies (especially satellite technology) on authentic local cultures and national sovereignty. This worry is based on the ground that the new communication technologies are not value-free because they come packaged with the value orientations of their manufacturers (see, for examples, Moran, 1994; Oliver, 1994).

Nature of work and living

Beyond these issues, uncertainty still surrounds the extent to which the new technologies are able to address problems of society. Goodloe (1991) adopts a positive attitude to the new technologies, believing, for instance, that a proliferation of computers will lead to efficient operation of government departments in developing countries and also assist in information democratisation as the new technologies become more accessible to a greater number of people. He however fears that the new communication technologies could lead to massive loss of jobs. Geyer (1992) echoes the same view, pointing out that, although computers have revolutionised the mode of education and training, health and medicine, transport, agriculture, sport, and entertainment, certain fundamental and worrying questions remain. For example, what would happen if fewer people produced more goods and services due to the impact of new communication technologies? Furthermore, if people work from the comfort of their homes (telecommuting) with the aid of the new technologies, how would this affect family and work relationships? (Geyer, 1992). Certainly, these questions touch on how the new communications technologies will affect the nature of work and living.

Gender and new technologies

While examining the role of gender in the new communication technologies, Lennie (1993) argues that, although research into communication and information technologies has largely ignored or marginalised gender issues, the active involvement of women in the design of the new technologies may lead to creative and empowering uses for emerging communication technologies. Inayatullah and Milojevic (1999) agree that even though the Net comes to us a language in which woman are generally silenced, women can develop new software that is more woman friendly, as well change the policy priorities of development, to help the Net move away from its toolcentric approach.  Also, Stevenson and Lennie (1995) analyzed emerging ‘Communicative Age’ designs in the context of competing pressures to continue the current technology-driven systems, and to replace nature entirely through new technologies. Among the strategies they developed for creating a `Communicative Age’ are the greater involvement of women in creating alternative designs for communication and information technology, relearning the art of conversation, and using action learning and foresight.

Superhighway and public expectations

One aspect of the new communication technologies which has raised and perhaps dampened expectations is the information superhighway. Nowhere is the desire to develop the highway more urgent than in Southeast Asia where many of the governments are now investing in high technology industries. These countries perceive broadband telecommunications and interactive multimedia as pivotal to the restructuring of their societies (Langdale, 1995). For countries with major export-oriented telecommunications equipment industries (examples include Japan, Taiwan and South Korea), Langdale states that the need for an innovative domestic telecommunications services industry cannot be overstated. The objective is to open up markets for their national equipment manufacturers. Langdale (1995) also believes that interactive multimedia is likely to provide a major global market for equipment manufacturers in the future.

A report by an expert group in Australia (Broadband Services Expert Group, 1994) states that multimedia and new communication technologies offer opportunities to expand access to cultural collections and events by creating new cultural products and services. According to the report, the new technologies will, over the years, benefit humankind, in museums and galleries, health centres, homes, offices, factories and classrooms. Japanese authors Esaki and Kaneko (1993) echo a similar view, predicting that, in the coming century, new technologies such as digital computers and digital TV will become common household communication tools, making multimedia interaction easy.

Mandeville (1995) reports that while the information superhighway consisting of new telecommunications infrastructure is gaining widespread usage among businesses and households in urban Australia, the rural areas are yet to be serviced by or introduced to the superhighway. The implication is that the regional and rural areas which produce a significant percentage of state GDP “could increasingly be left out of information age developments.” Of what use therefore is the information superhighway if it ignores the needs of the rural and regional people who generate about 40 per cent of the state’s gross domestic product? In a related study, Hearn et al (1995) observe that Australia’s telephone system which is moving away from the old analog based service to one that involves computer processing, software and databases, as well as digital switching and signalling, is raising a groundswell of concerns about issues relating to privacy and consumer protection from the misuse or unauthorised use of personal information made possible by the network’s capacity for information storage and retrieval.

Melody et al (1992) argue that technological improvements to the telecommunications network have opened up new opportunities for the provision of services that can make callers more informed and allow many services to be provided more efficiently. However, the new developments also raise questions about inappropriate use and misuse of personal information, privacy and censorship, consumer protection and competition. These questions are: Who owns the valuable information about the calling habits of individual customers? Who should get access to it? How should it be used? Should it be restricted? If so, how? (Melody et al, 1992). The authors believe that the resolution of these issues will help shape the future information society.

ICTs and national sovereignty, language and culture

In an analysis of international satellite television broadcasting, Sinclair (1995) notes that satellite distribution is purely an ‘international’ means by which signals are spilled across national and international borders. In this connection, he believes that the concerns raised by various countries about national sovereignty and the subsequent attempt to control reception are mooted by the fact that dishes and cable systems flourish beyond their control. In this new satellite business, language and culture have become powerful forces in making and breaking international markets. According to Sinclair, service providers in Asia have found that they have to take account of linguistic, religious and other cultural factors in establishing their markets.

On the subject of language, Lambert (1996) observes that “access to the Internet depends not only on ready access to terminals, efficient phone lines and telecoms infrastructure but also a working command of English, the language of cyberspace… Without this, negotiating one’s way through all the various interfaces on the Internet and accessing information is very difficult.” He noted how lack of familiarity with English, the major language of the Internet, has affected the extent to which the Japanese use the Internet compared to the massive use of the Internet in Singapore — “where English is an official language”.  Abidi (1991) has argued that by use of the dominant languages not only in the Internet but also in the mass media, indigenous languages are suppressed and hence local cultures and traditions are rendered subordinate to the cultural images that are depicted in powerful foreign media. In this context, the media audience in developing societies are turned into passive participants.  Of course, there is considerably more freedom in ICTs since the Net is decentralized, allowing individuals from all over the world to have a web site. However, having a web site should not been as a replacement for structural inequity in the world system.

The relevant question at this point is: do modern mass media promote multiculturalism or the predominance of one culture?  There is a wide range of views representing the concerns of the developing and the developed worlds. From the perspective of developing countries, what audiences receive from the mass media are merely what the western world, the network owners, want the people to get. For instance, Plange (1993) argues that television and video tend to be laden with foreign (western) values and that greater consumption of broadcast and taped (recorded) programming affect societal attitudes, family, and employment routines. Ogden (1993) however argues that in the Pacific Islands, assessing TV and video to help analyse social and cultural impacts of new technologies is very difficult in countries undergoing rapid change and subject to massive foreign influences. But Varan (1993) believes that television has widened the economic gap between the rich and the poor. For Stewart (1993), transnational consumerism is encouraged and strengthened as the media (TV) advertise mostly imported products. A similar view is held by Dunleavy, Hearn and Burkett (1994). They argue that the mass media are deeply interwoven with the consumer economy through the shaping of recreational tastes and activities and these in turn feed into patterns of consumption.

Fundamental change is thus needed, argue many theorists. Inayatullah and Milojevic (1999) have argued that we need to search for ways to transform  information to communication (going far beyond the interactivity of the web) creating not a knowledge economy but a communicative economy, where differences are explored (and sililoquy posing as connection with the other is exposed). This is a vision of a future where conversations help create a gaia of civilizations. Central to this challenge is rethinking “information”, moving it outside its limited rationalist discourse and entering other ways of knowing, primarily those of women and other cultures. This means not merely the traditional map of data-information-knowledge and wisdom but the inclusion of social transformation or a new world order and transcendence, the metacultural dimension of the spiritual. It is the latter which gives space and foundation to the creation of a new collective consciousness; a creation which the Net can possibly play a role in birthing.

Virtual reality and challenges of the new technologies

Modern communication technologies affect not only grand issues of civilisation, of meaning, as well as cultural values and consumption habits, but also specific arenas such as our sense of travel and tourism.  For example, virtual reality, facilitated by new communication technologies, promises to transform tourism, creating a virtual self in which “there is no longer any place” (Inayatullah, 1993). Indeed, it is virtuality that is one of the drivers of the Information Era.  In the age of information superhighway, it is now possible for people to visualise themselves in more than two locations simultaneously without physically being there. Thus, more and more people seem to be asking, “why travel, when reality and imagination are blurred anyway.” Inayatullah believes that globalisation through communication technologies and deterritorialisation will create the possibility wherein “we could all become perpetual immigrants, forever travelling and never fearing deportation.” These new technologies which promote virtual reality promise to dramatically change the structure, the nature and the futures of tourism. He wonders what life would be like when we travel without worrying about all sorts of official documents, visas, passports, innoculation certificates and so on. Already, new nations are being built on the web, even offering passports for their citizens. Beyond virtual reality, advances in genetic technologies may also create two global societies, a society of people who are genetically created and another society populated by people who are born through the natural, traditional methods. Both virtuality and genetics, as they create new forms of self, silence billions of people who live in traditional “real” and “natural” worlds. ICTs thus should be seen as among a host of new technologies which are dramatically changing how we self and other.

Cheong (1995) observes also that new communication technologies have made travel systems more efficient. Many hotels now have the World Wide Web sites in the Internet to advertise their products and services. Internet advertising grows exponentially as do the values of Internet stocks on world equity markets. There is however a downside to this new development because through virtual reality, people can now realistically tour the world, experience romance and danger all in the safety of their homes or virtual reality centre. Cheong however states that virtual reality is still undeveloped as it lacks the features of smell, touch and taste and warns: “the threat of virtual reality becoming a substitute for travel is not unfounded and should not be ignored.” The good side of virtual reality is that it helps to safeguard and protect local tourism ecology and landscape.  The negative side is that it safeguards us from the other, from other ways of knowing, since virtual worlds are being created by software designers from one particular culture, largely from the West. There is no two way flow of design.  Moreover, virtuality continues the fragmentation of the self, leading to a possible world where information and communication technologies do not help us connect  and relate to others, but create further distances, seeing the other as merely a net consumer (Sardar and Ravetz, 1996; Sardar, 1998).

ICTs role in training educators in Africa

Across American higher education, for example, the lure of the new information technologies remains as uncertain as it is unsettling (Inayatullah and Gidley, 2000, in press). While few doubt that they have the potential to enhance teaching and learning, there is no agreement on how the technologies should be used to boost academic productivity (Massy and Zemsky, 1997).  Indeed, generally, they are being used partly for new courseware – courses on the Net as well as the new Universities on the Net – but as well to reduce the financial bargaining power of faculty, in some ways eliminating the lecturer. There is a subtle but profound shift from pedagogy as face-to-face learning based often on information transfer but as well as the communication between professor and student to pedagogy qua distant learning. One possible future is that the professor becomes mentor with rote information based learning done through the Net. This scenario would free the professor to focus on communication and learning. Alternatively, boring lecture notes may lead to even more boring Net learning, with the Net used merely as cost-cutting. A third scenario would see a shift away from teaching to courseware development. In any case, information search and transfer abilities of the Net are dramatically changing the nature of the university, of education. They are also changing the political relationships between faculty and management.

However, the presence of ICTs in the developing world in education and business, though not as widespread, holds greater promise, considering policy decisions and investments by various governments (Birhanu). This is because these policy makers not only have tremendous faith in the emancipator capacity of ICTs, but also because they believe that unless they become part of the global high-tech information network and system the world will pass them by (Haque, 1991: 220).

The question as to whether ICTs can really help to train educators or promote education in developing economies does not have a ready answer. There are several perspectives in the literature.

Drivers for the appropriation of ICTs

Many developing countries are increasingly cognizant of the strong and mutual dependence between economic development and telecommunications infrastructure (Birhanu). In a developing country such as India, for example, even though 10% of the workers are employed in service and information-related jobs, they account for 42% of the country’s GNP, suggesting that ICTs are helping the country to progress towards becoming an information society, even if slowly (Haque, 1991: 220). Elsewhere, ICTs have been perceived as an employment creator, as in South Africa (Louw, 1996) so much so that people are being retrained and re-deployed in ICT-related jobs. Beyond the economic factors, there are several more that support the case of ICTs in development and education.

From an educational perspective, ICTs in the developing world often refer to satellite-based television, telephony, video cassette recorders, computer-based interactive technologies such as electronic messaging systems, teletext and videotext  (Haque,1991: 224). Additionally, telecommunications technologies have been identified as powerful tools for helping teachers with all the different aspects of their job: enhancing instruction, simplifying administrative tasks, fostering professional growth and in some cases, their own personal productivity (Abi-Raad, 1997: 207-208). Some teachers find that using various technologies allow them to teach in entirely different ways (Abi-Raad, 1997). In the information age which has led to a complex social and institutional structure in modern society, one has to be a global citizen to operate successfully. This requires an awareness of information, as well as access and management of it for the purposes of basic survival (Fairer-Wessels, 1997: 5-6).

Telecommunications technologies must become an enabler of change through innovative uses in education (Abi-Raad, 1997: 211). Owing to their nature, coupled with the non-threatening environment for mistakes, ICTs in themselves offer immense benefits to students because they motivate them to study what happened, to understand what went wrong and, through understanding, to fix it. Teachers then could leverage on this strength to educate or re-train themselves, in a continual manner, even as technology keeps changing or advancing.

Other advantages of adopting ICTs in the training of teachers include, as evidenced in other related projects by IDRC (the International Development Research Council), a sense of empowerment and a new culture of communication (Graham, 1997). ICTs help promote a culture that is inclusive of diversity and collaboration, drawing on individual creativity and distinct faculties, opening ‘new worlds to teachers who seek new ways to help students go beyond the classroom, their school, their community and their culture’ (Justice and Espinoza, SITE 96, 1996). In Africa, emerging electronic messaging and educational technologies also provide a greater number of people with instruction and also offer an opportunity for various types and levels of co-operation between various institutions (Dzidonu and Reddy, 1997).

De Voogd (1996) believes that ICTs make collaborative learning and sharing of power and control that allows learners to learn in accordance with their own cultural style (De Voogd, SITE 96, 1996). In teacher training in the West, ICTs’ application to open and distance learning seem to be an international trend (Haugen and Ask, in Willis and Isleib, SITE, 1996). Teacher trainers have a responsibility to investigate and be open-minded with respect to these new possibilities in the developing societies, to the extent that these may be transferable.

For Africa, the information revolution offers a dramatic opportunity to leapfrog into the future, breaking out of decades of stagnation or decline (Hegener; and Grebreysus). Hegener has highlighted, in particular, the role of e-mail through a feasibility study and the conclusion was that for African universities, e-mail was the mode of telecommunication of the future. In recent years, the speed and efficiency of communication and access to information via e-mail has significantly improved in certain countries like Ethiopia. Application of this technology in teacher training in Africa cannot be ruled out. It might well serve as a starting point. Most importantly though, as the literature suggests, the opportunity to adopt communication technologies must be seized by African educators and universities to avoid being marginalised.

Barriers to the appropriation of ICTs

Currently, the barriers to adoption of ICTs both in business and education are overwhelming. However, there is hope in that measures to overcome these have been identified as well, though a lot of them have to do with developing ‘cultures’ and tailoring tools to fit in with the needs of the same (Abi-Raad, 1997: 211-212; Birhanu), particularly in the developing world.

In a broader view of the developing world, an added barrier to the appropriation of ICTs in business or otherwise is the limited access to and use of the media, except for radio (Haque, 1991: 220). Most countries are poor and also suffer from extreme disparity in income distribution, with a variety of reasons for income inequality such as highly unequal ownership of and access to land, a social structure that has excluded people from employment or other means of production either due to their colour, caste, religion or ethnic background, worsened by the brain drain in an intra, inter-regional and international scale of their talented or skilled workforce (Haque, 1991).

Further to this is the naive faith of policy makers in the developing countries in the efficacy of media technologies. They do not take into account nor consider the ‘macro-level contextual dimensions’ of their societies. There are important differences between the conditions and configurations in which the technologies are developed in the West and the conditions in which these technologies are transplanted (Haque, 1991: 222).

For now, let us consider the problems in African industry. In the employment sector in Sub-Saharan Africa, full Internet capabilities have become available in Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique and six other countries. The Ntsika Enterprise Promotion Agency has begun negotiations with various parties that could provide ICT services, and policies are slowly beginning to emerge (Louw, 1996). The problems are many. In brief, delays are caused by a lack of funding. Other factors include governmental regulatory policies, expensive telecommunications services, expensive equipment for smaller business firms, little technical support and under-serviced rural areas (Louw, 1996). Others include the unavailability of experienced and talented software personnel, management personnel trained in modern business management, a small and parochial private sector, a small and weak middle class with very low purchasing power, the lack of appreciation of the power of information by the state, failure to treat information as a critical element in any major economic objective, uninformed resistance in government circles against investing in computers and peripherals (Gebreysus).

Peter Knight (1995) adds that in many countries in Africa inefficient monopoly state telecommunications companies are preventing further flow of information (quoted in Gebreyesus). Generally, telephone and fax are the principal communication facilities in organisations while telex and radio are available to private individuals and in international and non-governmental organisations. Home computers and e-mail facilities at home are not common in Africa.

Most of the barriers outlined above affect the role of ICTs in African education and the training of the educators. If distance education were be to be a starting point in training teachers in a highly disconnected Africa, the governance of higher education institutions and cost stand out as the biggest impediments. Additionally, there are impediments such as absence of dedicated technology champions to initiate the case of electronic distance education, resistance of faculty members to the implementation of new technologies for fear of job loss or job security and a non-existent or inadequate telecommunications infrastructure (Dzidonu and Reddy, 1997).

The choice of technology depends on the needs of students as well as the availability of resources. Any effort to transmit educational material through distance learning technologies should be realistic both technically and financially in terms of what volunteers will be able to support and deliver.

Globally, a fairly negative picture has emerged of student primary teachers’ use of ICT (Robertson, 1997: 170). In the developed countries, there are many teaching aids and the very diversity of telecommunications facilities is bewildering, thus inhibiting their appropriation (Abi-Raad, 1997: 208). In Africa, despite investments in Ghana and Egypt, users are afraid to do more than send e-mail (Owen Jr., 1995).

Furthermore, technology changes more rapidly than predicted, but people change more slowly (Owen, 1995).  From a cultural perspective, a major inhibitor of the adoption of new ICTs is the presence of legacy or traditional teaching approaches (Abi-Raad., 1997: 211). Also in public organisations as in educational institutions, adherence to procedures ahead of initiative and innovation, and delays in legislation and policy result in an abundance of opportunities for improvement, but a culture that makes promotion of ideas difficult (Abi-Raad, 1997). This culture needs to change. Information is not independent of the development process but dependent upon other factors in a larger political and economic context of society. One needs to examine what prior limitations exist and what preconditions are necessary for information to make a difference (Shore, 1980:  45) in the making of an ICT change conducive to culture.

Even as the above factors translate to the African educational scenario, dwindling resources which result in inability to stock libraries, laboratories, fund research, pay overworked staff who are unable to keep up with developments in their fields (Gebreysus, 1997) add to the ‘lack of motivation to adapt’ syndrome among teachers. A very real statement which teacher trainers often hear is, “Why should I learn how to use this technology when I don’t have the technology in my classroom, school, district, country? “(Suares, 1996).

As identified earlier, the bottomline is that African educators, ICT providers and national policy makers need to see common ground before embarking on training programmes. The literature pre-empts the need to identify a compatible culture or mindset among these people to make headway.

Significant arguments

Here two major factors can be identified: (a) The haves versus the have nots; and (b) traditional versus technological approaches to education.

The literature suggests the coexistence of both factions or forces. There is an interplay between the two, in both cases, with no one faction or force dominating the other. It may be that ICTs could help industry or educators gain from such tension by offering a facilitatory/interventionist approach in the management of continual change.

The “have vs. have nots” issue carries itself across the boundaries of the developing nations’ issues to the African educational scenario. For now, let us consider this as a position relevant to the developing world. Here, the illiterate segment, mainly contained within the agrarian and industrial spheres, represent the information illiterate, poor and “have nots”. They are pitted against the “information rich/haves” segment (Fairer-Wessels, 1997: 2).

Other representations of the same are the free market forces versus centralised planning, increasing number of university graduates versus increasing number of illiterates (Haque, 1991: 227). Most economically developed nations have not only achieved universal diffusion of radio and televisual media with most homes owning multiple sets, they are also adopting the other new communication technologies at an accelerated pace. Most developing or underdeveloped countries on the other hand, are struggling with the problem of how to provide the basic telecommunications services to their citizens (Haque, 1991). On this, we recall the words of Julius Nyerere on the problems African leaders are facing just to reach their people in the villages.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, it is common knowledge that by every measure, the situation is worsening. Education is no exception. The net result is an ever widening knowledge gap between the developed countries and Sub-Saharan Africa (Gebreyesus, 1997: 1).

To further carry the case, in the realms of educational methods, Abi-Raad (1997: 213) states that a tension exists between traditional and technology-based education. Although ICTs play an important role in these interactions, traditional communications continue to play an important complementary role (Graham, 1997).

An inference could be that ICTs might take on a complementary and yet interventionist role in the management of rapid change in educational institutions. It may thus both be defined by a continually changing ‘culture’ or mindset of educators and train the teacher through eventual appropriation. This raises the question of culture examined in the following subsection.

Implications for development policy and implementation issues

There appears to be a trend requiring every teacher to know how to use the Internet. The real problem of the impact of Internet on education is elsewhere — giving students increasingly powerful tools is going to have an increasingly large impact on the very content of curricula (Abi-Raad, 1997: 207). The assumption that the only tools teachers have to solve problems are a pencil and a paper is going to change or will have  to (Abi-Raad, 1997). It is a mindshift that is being pre-empted.

Other changes required to ease the adoption of ICTs in education would be the curricula’s ability to exploit the dynamic and visual character of multimedia, classes where students can learn at different rates, schools that are more virtual places than physical buildings and a governance system that regulates new providers of distance learning services while at the same time permitting them to compete or combine with more traditional public schools.

Ideally, courseware could be designed that included many levels of interaction (Inayatullah and Wildman, 1998). Students could have access to the editor of the cdrom or the net course, as well as to authors whose works are selected, as well as to fellow students through an internet listserve. Finally, they could have direct access to the professor teaching the course. New media thus allow numerous levels of interaction. Of course, this would require the technology to use CD-ROMs and the internet, as well as editors and authors who were willing to engage with students, instead of believing that pedagogy was finished once their textbook was published.

In Africa, it might be advantageous to have a joint technical group that will assess the existing situation pertaining to telecommunications, assess forthcoming alternative technologies, architect telecommunications infrastructure, formulate standards and conduct a cost-benefit analysis to promote and show the viability of the architecture (Birhanu). Some other important criteria to abide by are access, costs, kinds of learning/instructional approaches that would best meet the learners’ needs and background, appropriate technology, sustainability of such projects, transference of skills thus imparted from one trainer to another (Gebreyesus, 1997: 2). If proper architecture, technology and policy are devised and adopted, African nations and educators can make a beginning with better training of teachers through ICTs that fit their culture or mindsets.

The Internet is an alternative; its viability ought to be checked in Africa in both business and education. Whereas previous infrastructures for information sharing stressed conduits between Africa and other continents, Internet access can enhance intra-regional collaboration among African organisations.

Evaluation frameworks

Literature suggests that projects may have several years to produce concrete results or influence policies, and it is only through evaluation that information can be obtained on the impacts (Graham, 1997). Here, a case seems to be established in favour of setting up evaluative frameworks for the impact of ICTs in teacher education. It is held that such evaluation would help to set up periodic retraining of teachers, as well, considering growing demands for employees with diverse and continually evolving skills, unlike the industrial era when the skills needed for jobs were relatively fixed (Toffler, 1990, in Dzidonu and Reddy, 1997).

Graham adds that evaluations should be part of project design and should be conducted both to allow for on-going feedback and mid-course corrections during the life of the project and to allow for information gathering at a later date (Graham, 1997). It takes concerted effort to learn about impact.

Critiques of evaluations framed for information technology-related change in education state that the issue is a complex and challenging task (McDougall and Squires, 1997: 115). Evaluation in this area is difficult. Many traditional evaluation models are simplistic and inadequate, even misleading or even failing to capture the richness of the problems associated with the introduction, integration and institutionalisation of IT in any platform of education.

McDougall and Squires suggest an alternative model — the perspectives interaction paradigm (McDougall and Squires: 118) for evaluation of information technology in education, which has already been successfully used in formal teacher education courses (McDougall and Squires, 1997). They have argued for a wider application of the paradigm in an IT teacher professional development context.

A limitation though is that an application of the paradigm has shown that analysis of IT teacher professional development programmes must be school-focused. However, one might consider this as a starting point for further research, in the context of issues discussed by the paper.

Alternatively, VOLN (Victoria Open Learning Network), Australia, suggests evaluation of a project by measuring it against pre-determined performance indicators, which could include the following:

·    the increase in the number of learners, or the level of their satisfaction

·    the increase in the number of satisfied employers, or the level of their satisfaction

·    the decrease in cost of training provided

·    a measurable improvement in access to the particular type of training

·    increased levels of staff skills

·    increased enrolment levels, measured by surveys or statistical measures

·    statistics indicating that different types of clients are enrolling, and

·        increased number of staff who wished to be seconded to the area (From Chalkface to Interface)

A number of the above factors are transferable to the focus of evaluating ICTs efficacy in training educators. With respect to the African scenario, it seems from the literature that similar studies have not been undertaken till date.

Future research questions

Very little research has been written on how the use of the Internet in the classroom has affected the role/perceptions of the classroom teacher (Abi-Raad, 1997: 206). This could be a beginning to assess how close an attempt to evaluate the impact of ICTs in educating teachers is to the cutting edge of research issues in the field. Additionally, some other major questions that may be considered for investigation are:

·        How are teachers dealing with the influx of telecommunications technologies in educational institutions?

·        How and why do teachers use these technologies?

·        In what ways, if any, can technology help teachers perform their multi-faceted tasks?

Graham cautions that evaluations should look at the role and effectiveness of ICTs but should not be founded on evaluating the impact of projects on development (1997).

Most importantly, Abi-Raad confirms that practically all research about educational technology has focused on the impact of these on students; little attention has been given to its impact on teachers (1997, p. 206). This validates the relevance of this particular project.

Research findings

The interview questions were designed to elicit specific responses with regard to the status of ICTs, the usefulness of ICTs, level of awareness and level of usage of ICTs, and the obstacles to the introduction and wider usage of ICTs, among others. With regard to the status of the ICTs in Africa (whether they are in existence or not), there was a general opinion that the ICTs are in existence and that a majority of the people are aware, although access remains a problem. The following quotations exemplify this view.

There is awareness but, you know, awareness is just a part of the game. If you are aware of something and you don’t have access to it, it’s a problem. (Nig/NO)

I think they exist here and it’s like it’s exploding. People are using them, stores are computerising… There are business centres all over the place doing typesetting, typing letters. (Gha/AK)

I think all the basic facilities in the new communications technologies have been introduced in the country in the last decade. Faxes exist, electronic mailing systems and operations, the Internet is in town, several offices, private companies, government agencies, non-governmental organisations, private individuals and groups are using computers and computer-based technologies. (Gha/KK)

There are a few installations, obviously not as much as you would find in the developed world. People are getting to it, to know them. I think, with time, they will be largely acceptable in the society. (CIv/FD)

In Fiji and the Philippines however, opinions were divided about the status of the new ICTs. While some respondents stated that ICTs have advanced in their country, others said the ICTs are available but only to a minor segment of the population who can afford computers, who are educated enough to use computers or those who are computer literate. The following views illustrate these points.

Internet I think like anywhere in the Pacific is only available to those who can afford a computer and who know how to use them, which is a minority. (Fiji/CM)

ICTs are relatively well advanced in Fiji… But if you measure that against the Pacific rim countries, we’re well advanced but we’re obviously not up to the standards that you have say in Australia and New Zealand. (Fiji/MB)

I see them as very limited, quite ancient in terms of, for example, the level of Internet service access we have in Fiji. We are limited to only one ISP who offers a very poor service in terms of reliability and speed, at a very high cost. (Fiji/AC)

At the moment we are very very close to whatever is available in markets overseas… I’ve just been to Australia and New Zealand and some of our technologies are more advanced than theirs. I’m referring to some of the universities there. (Fiji/KF)

Similar sentiments were expressed by interviewees in the Philippines.

The development of ICT is very uneven. It is moving and expanding more rapidly in the private sector… Government seems to be lagging behind. (Phil/PV)

Usage is at a low level with private sector dominating the use of ICT… Usage is very low and that means two things: that market growth has great potential or that we will remain economically handicapped in terms of computers. (Phil/WP)

We are relatively advanced compared to Singapore and Malaysia since we have Internet Service Providers (ISPs)… ICT should be introduced outside the academe and private sector. (Phil/NN)

A few issues arise from these views. In both Fiji and the Philippines: ICT growth is being driven by the private sector; outside the private sector, only a few people, those with the relevant education and money are able to buy and use the technologies.

These findings are not too different from the situation in Africa. For example, although a majority of people in Africa are aware of ICTs, there was a marked difference between the level of awareness and the level of usage. Thus, while there was evidence of awareness and presence of the ICTs in the African countries we visited, there was also evidence of low usage of the new technologies. In other words, while we found the level of awareness about ICTs to be high (many people knew about the new technologies), there was a corresponding (albeit disturbing) low level of usage of ICTs even in universities. A majority of people who said they were aware also reported that they were not in a position to use such technologies. Hence, access to the technologies was identified as one of the problems. Some may not even have seen these technologies for the first time.

In terms of awareness, generally, I would say people are aware… if you mention anything about computing or IT, people know what it is about. But if you talk in terms of being literate, apart from the awareness,… I would say the literacy level is, maybe, let’s say 50-50… Then if you move to the level of usage, that is, what is the percentage of those who are literate who now use the technology, …that seems to be where the problem is currently. The level of usage is very low, still very low… this has to do with the fact that the technology itself is alien and we’re really consumers of the technology… (Nig/CU)

I can say that the status of information technology is barely existent. The need for it is there but the awareness isn’t quite widespread enough. There are still a lot of people who are ignorant of it. There are still a lot of people who are unwilling to try it out. And there are still a lot of people who do not have the resources even when they need to try it out. (Nig/EI)

Although a majority of respondents in all African countries stated that the technologies were in existence and that people were aware, there were other views which deviated from the general trend. These stated that the people are still not aware of the technologies.

I think in terms of awareness, it’s still very poor and you can extend that also to usage and application. It’s very poor. For a population of 100 million and with more than three dozen universities, you’ll be amazed the total email subscription in Nigeria. It’s very very appalling. At some point last year, it was only a hundred. That’s a clear reflection of how poor it is. (Nig/CU)

We’re still in the dark ages; still far, far behind. Still much to be done… As at now, people have them in their homes or in their offices but in institutions where we should have them, we don’t have them. Nobody knows even how to use them; the students don’t know how to use them. That’s basically because they don’t have them. (Nig/FN)

They are in existence but they’re not technologies that are used at their optimal level. They are used for low level things: word processing, Excel, simple, simple things. (Gha/SB)

Ghana, I think, has a dichotomy as far as these technologies are concerned. At one level…, a large number of organisations are at the cutting edge of technology. At the same time, you see a lot of organisations at the rudimentary level. So, it’s very difficult to say whether Ghana is moving forward or not. (Gha/SK)

Given the level of awareness about these technologies vis-à-vis the level of poverty in all the countries that we visited, we tried to find out whether the respondents considered the use of these technologies as appropriate to their environment. There was a clear unanimity of opinion on this issue. In Africa and Asia-Pacific, almost every interviewee considered ICTs as appropriate to their society for various reasons, even in the face of poverty. The reasons were as follows: for Africa,

·        ICTs were generally seen as the basic tool for survival in the next century;

·        ICTs were seen to enhance efficiency in the workplace;

·        there was a high belief in ICT ability to increase the ease and speed of social communication and at the same time obviate the problem of transportation;

·        ICTs help solve socio-economic problems;

·        among university academics, ICTs help them reach out to colleagues in other parts of the world and keep them up to date with developments in their disciplines;

·        there was the belief that ICTs help to monitor crime in society, and

·        there was the ultimate belief that ICT usage will make Africa to become part of the global trend.

They help to do things better, they show a measure of development. And if we’re going to be plugged into the world, particularly in the next century, on the continent of Africa and…, we necessarily must be part and parcel of the information age. And information technology is an imperative that Africa would miss at its own risk. (Nig/EI)

Well, there is only one world and we don’t have different worlds… So, we cannot stay in one corner of the globe and isolate ourselves from what is happening elsewhere… Apart from that, we also need this technology. (Gha/TM)

We cannot because, a majority of the people are poor,… forget to join the global trend. It is, in fact, to our detriment that we ignore this very important tool of modern living. There is no way we are going to remove ourselves from the global community because we are part and parcel of this world… development has gotten to a stage where info tech is the basic tool for survival in the coming century. (Nig/BO)

I believe business… needs more of these technologies because… transportation is a problem. People waste a lot of time just trying to get from one point to the other…if we are to put these technologies into place, business could move faster, people can do business much easier and make more money. (Gha/WACSI)

I think it is a relevant technology for us even in the midst of the poverty that we are in. Don’t forget that increasingly the world is like a global village today and people are evolving the best ways of doing things… (Nig/NO)

I think, as technologies that facilitate communication of all sorts, they are appropriate… in terms of social communications, it is extremely useful. So, my mother doesn’t have to come here any time to talk to me. She walks to a phone about a kilometre away and talks to me. So, I think that in that sense, it is useful… because they facilitate all kinds of social interaction and economic activity.  In terms of education, it is useful but it is only a potential as at now. (Gha/KK)

Primarily, I’m looking at it from the point of scholarship. It is very important. You need to be current to know what is happening in the field… to be current so you don’t duplicate studies; so you can also improve upon what has been done already. And that is one way to keep current. We need to reach out. (Nig/YE)

Networking is also a very key area for us because…it’s important for us to be able to network. I think we… find that the information technology helps us to report better because then we are able to survey our environment better if we have a good network, and know, for instance, if there is an instance of child abuse in the north and I can pick it up on my system, then it helps me to open my eyes and see if it actually exists around this part as well. So, it helps us to monitor society better. (CIv/GA)

However, not every respondent considered the use of ICTs as appropriate to Africa, in view of the problem of illiteracy. According to one respondent, ICTs are

… not too appropriate because you’re talking of high percentage of the population being illiterate. Some have not even seen, there are university students who have not even seen what a computer is like. (Gha/PR)

This point bears some resemblance to the core arguments of Jegede (1995) cited earlier in this report. According to Jegede:

Three quarters of Africa’s population is illiterate (so hooking them to the Internet is out of the question); three quarters of Africa is rural without basic facilities of electricity and telephone (so hooking up to the Internet can only be restricted to the urban areas); three quarters of universities in Africa have depleted library resources, have overworked academics and run computer science departments without computers … and there are currently 200 million personal computers world-wide but less than one percent of them are located in Africa… (p. 221).

In the Asia-Pacific countries studied, there was an unequivocal response about the appropriateness of the ICTs. The prominent issues highlighted include:

·        online technology enables local doctors to consult with their international colleagues and other doctors in the scattered island communities;

·        the most appropriate technologies were seen as the ones that enabled the communities and organisations to communicate more efficiently (example was given of e-mail);

·        ICTs promote distance education at all levels;

·        instantaneous availability of data through ICTs;

·        the future of education is heavily dependent on ICTs;

·        Internet access helps productivity, innovation and entrepreneurship to flourish;

·        ICTs are useful for job search by youths; and

·        ICTs are essential for the knowledge era.

… we can’t deny that the next century would be a knowledge century and the world is developing towards becoming more and more knowledge-intensive, and IT will be the technology for development of four aspects of man’s activities: industry; manufacturing services; farming, agriculture and fisheries; and health services. (Phil/WP)

I’d say it’s appropriate. I’d like to be in touch with the world pretty much instantaneously… I think the Internet is the most appropriate new ICT to develop because it’s information as you require, when you require it. (Fij/TP)

If ICT means having national information network, it is very appropriate considering we are an archipelagic nation with seven thousand-plus islands… (Phil/PV)

The technologies that we are using are appropriate because we’ve got scattered islands and some steeper areas and the cost of cabling these areas relative to the consumer basis … is not warranted.(Fij/MB)

… development of our Internet capacity and usage is the only way countries in this region will become more developed. I believe the infrastructure for Internet access is the number one priority for a country like Fiji. (Fij/AC)

I think information technology now is probably the backbone for any business, education and so on… The most appropriate in terms of communication are the ones that allow the community and organisations to communicate more efficiently – for example, e-mail. (Fij/KF)

Although ICTs were generally seen as appropriate in the different sociocultural contexts, there were views which argued that ICTs were not appropriate and that focus should be on meeting the basic needs of their society. Here are some of these views which were prevalent in the Philippines:

We are being razzle-dazzled with the technology. We need to balance that with other dimensions including the human element of technology… We should have a solid foot on the ground and know what is important. (Phil/RIS).

ICT has a secondary role. It has some use but our priorities should be in meeting the basic needs of our people…  ICT is a toy for the rich. We make it appear as if we are (being) left behind and we are poor if we do not have ICT. (Phil/RV)

Against the background of the perceived appropriateness of ICTs to Africa and Asia-Pacific, an impulsive question would be: why are these technologies, given their usefulness, not yet commonplace in all the countries we studied. Among the African respondents, a wide range of factors inhibit the widespread introduction and use of the new technologies. These factors include:

·        ignorance about the importance of and need for ICTs which makes even those rich enough to acquire them apathetic to ICTs;

·        general poverty which leads to the perception of computers, for example, as alien and luxury acquisitions;

·        poor maintenance and repair culture in which spare parts and technical ‘experts’ from the manufacturers are imported whenever the technologies break down; this leads to waste of resources, time and money;

·        poor infrastructural support base; examples include inefficient electricity and telephone systems;

·        lack of support from the government leading to underfunding of science and technology programmes in tertiary institutions;

·        illiteracy and lack of basic computing skills; these two points are closely related — in the African countries studied, tertiary institutions are funded by government and it follows that where government is apathetic to the need for ICTs, the educational institutions will not be provided with adequate funds to acquire and teach these technologies;

·        lack of a science and technology policy; this has consequences at two levels – lack of policy impedes the growth and development of a culture of science and technology, and also, at the educational level, downplays the significance of science and technology in the perception of students); and

·        the absence of democracy which feeds political unrest and the unwillingness of foreign investors to invest in the area of ICTs.

·        perception of the technologies (example, computer) as a status symbol or statement of one’s hierarchy in society.

IGNORANCE:

Ignorance is the first and foremost obstacle. Ignorance about the importance of these. Ignorance about the need for these. When people fail to see the need, they are unlikely to do anything to get it. (Nig/EI)

I think the problem is, most people… have a magical view of the computer. They think the computer solves the problem… Basically, people are not knowledgeable enough about what a computer is supposed to do. (Gha/PA)

COST AND AFFORDABILITY:

This society still does not look at IT as being useful where you would take, say, a vehicle or say a piece of calculator. Things which are commonplace… So, people still see IT tools as luxury tools and we need to really break that barrier. (Nig/CU)

… you’ll find that computers are still a luxury. It’s a question of scale of preference: if you have to feed and if you have to think of having a PC, I am sure you will have to feed first, because if you don’t feed, you’re not going to stay. (Nig/NO)

The main obstacle is the level of wealth in the country… Most computers are more expensive than the annual income of the average person. Ghana has a per capita income of about $400 a year; an average computer costs around $1,500. (Gha/DO)

For anybody in this country to be able to put a computer together, the telephone, modem and what it is, you’ll be looking at perhaps the annual income, total annual income of a graduate. And that’s a lot,… It’s cash and carry. (Nig/FA)

LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURAL SUPPORT:

The first barrier is the inadequate supply of power, the electricity, it fluctuates, it’s very epileptic… (Nig/RA)

You want to look at simple telecommunications lines or links. They are not there. Where they are, my area for example, since Monday (interview taking place on a Thursday) our telephone system has gone down. No calls are coming in. (Gha/PR)

You want to look at electricity which is not too reliable. In the country now, we have the problem of having to ration. Sometimes you’ll be on your PC and the lights just go off or fluctuating. It could even affect your PC. (Uga/JO)

MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR:

Again, part of the problem of Third World countries especially Nigeria in the use of gadgets is maintenance, servicing, keeping them in working order… whilst we’re pursuing government policy, pursuing privatisation, pursuing accelerated education in computer appreciation, we should also look at maintenance of equipment and revive our trade schools… (Nig/BO)

The other difficulty we have is this constant procurement option. At the moment, we know we cannot manufacture all these information tech in Nigeria. And …what we do is to procure outright purchase of these info tech — and when they do breakdown, you have to wait until when you import the spare parts from the manufacturer or in some cases you actually bring the manufacturers here to come and do it for you. It takes time, it wastes human resources and it is expensive. (Nig/RA)

LACK OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY:

For me, … all the questions we are raising arise precisely because, at least in Ghana, our govt does not have a clear, doesn’t even have a policy of industrialisation, a policy on science and technology. (Gha/AK)

There is no policy on IT education at the different levels. By now there should be policies, at least curriculum, at the various levels of education — kindergarten, nursery, primary, secondary and tertiary… you don’t teach IT or computing as a subject, the way you teach mathematics or English language or any other…  And yet these are supposed to be the basic levels of building up people who are going to become practitioners in the profession. (Nig/CU)

LACK OF DEMOCRACY:

The second predicament is incessant problem of political unrest in this country. The country is politically unstable at the moment. And investors may not want to come and invest when they are not so sure of the stability of the country. (Nig/RA)

LACK OF GOVERNMENT SUPPORT:

Then, a major factor has to do with the fact that government itself is actually not doing what is required. IT is not being adequately promoted. It might interest you to note that, as at now, we do not actually have a national policy on IT in Nigeria… (Nig/CU)

LACK OF SUPPORT FOR UNIVERSITIES:

… the universities and educational environment are grossly underfunded. In fact, this is where I believe that interest in IT can actually start developing IT, the users, evolve the IT environment, develop the IT culture. It’s a culture of its own. (Nig/VA)

HIERARCHY/MYTH OF THE COMPUTER:

… in terms of technological application, there are cases where people like me, in an executive position like this, limit the use of these facilities by junior staff and others because like every technology has a myth around it. You could still see in some offices, even in this university, where it is in the director’s office and it’s covered, that sort of thing. (Nig/CU)

In the Asia-Pacific countries studied, a range of factors were seen as inhibiting the use of new ICTs. These factors include:

·        high cost of the ICTs leading to restriction of access to the new technologies;

·        conservative attitudes – people are comfortable maintaining the status quo, doing things the way they are used to;

·        lack of deregulation and government legislation which gives monopoly to a few information technology companies;

·        poverty and harsh economic climate;

·        infrastructural problems such as inadequate telephone lines and lines cutting off when someone is logged onto the Internet;

·        health and social welfare commitments undercutting attention to ICTs;

·        lack of basic education and computing skills;

·        political culture which discourages open sharing of information (Philippines)

…people here need social contact, they can’t just be locked up in a room communicating on the Internet. It’s not their style or their culture. (Fij/FG)

Most communication between businesses is done by phone or fax. People in Fiji are obsessed with faxes. They want everything in writing so it can be filed. (Fij/FG)

… the mentality is still very much about having things recorded on paper… Mentality is part of it. Expense is the other part…people feel more secure sending messages by traditional means because with the non-computer mentality, you’re not sure whether people check their email regularly. (Fij/FG)

The barrier is still the cost of putting up the physical infrastructure. Second is the lack of a predictable legal framework for dealing with ICT. We have no laws on electronic commerce. (Phil/WP)

Lack of training and education is one barrier. The people should be further educated about ICT. The political culture of the Philippines is such that it discourages the open sharing of information. (Phil/PV)

Respondents were also asked to suggest ways in which ICTs could be widely promoted and used in their society. In other words, how can a science and technology culture be entrenched in their countries? In Africa and Asia-Pacific, almost all respondents pointed to early education and familiarisation with computers as the fundamental step toward popularisation of ICTs in the society. Tin Africa, there were diverse views and opinions, ranging from suggestions such as the establishment of computer clubs in primary schools, to early exposure of the population to computers through the establishment of computer centres in local government headquarters (to replace the present television viewing centres), and incorporation of computer courses in school curriculum at an early age.

EARLY EXPOSURE TO COMPUTERS:

We should have a curriculum in school that makes it compulsory that every primary, secondary and tertiary institution offer some basic course in computer appreciation. These are the things we should be thinking of now… (Nig/BO)

One area would be to make them readily available to educational institutions, so that the young students who are coming up can be exposed to them at their school… So, if there can be a strategy put in place to make computers part of the educational process, to make it available to the students, that would go a long way in exposing the population and enhancing the utilisation of computers. (Civ/AG)

We go to schools — primary, secondary and tertiary — organise clubs for a start. We can call them computer clubs in which we teach people the fundamentals of computer appreciation, even how to use a telephone properly because… many people don’t know how to use them. (Uga/AS)

We need to go to secondary schools, institutions, set up a computer club or Internet club. Before they come out of science school or into the university or into the world, about 70 per cent of them could have gotten knowledge of some of these things. (Gha/PR)

Maybe we should just start basically from the educational sector. Primary schools, junior secondary schools, tertiary schools, there should be massive investment in that area. And once investment is made in that area, then it will catch up. (CIv/HD)

GRASSROOTS PROGRAM ON COMPUTER APPRECIATION:

If you have a computer, a PC or whatever, in the headquarters of a local government and the local people can use it, they will even, if you tax them and say pay levy for this. They will pay. The utility value becomes evident and they will support it and they will popularise it. Let the local governments start installing one instead of public TV viewing centres where they just sit down and are shown crap. (Nig/BO)

NEED FOR POLICY:

I think there must be national policy, there must be that national goal or desire that we have to get there because if these policies are not in place, well,… (Gha/PR)

Everybody needs to be educated about IT. So we need policies geared towards people acquiring basic IT knowledge at every level… Then there is also need to tackle the issue of acquisition of the technology itself. Currently, we are just users. (Gha/AK)

In Fiji and the Philippines, there were similar recommendations. Government should subsidise the cost of these technologies (such as computers) so educational institutions can afford to buy them; deregulation or opening up of the information technology market; provision of computers to schools by governments and non-governmental organisations (NGOs); workshops and training course on computer literacy organised by NGOs; media campaign to promote ICT use in all facets of life; broader awareness of world events through introduction of major world newspapers, TV news programmes; and greater private sector initiatives to promote and popularise ICTs.

To what extent are governments committed to the introduction and widespread use of ICTs? Responses vary and this could be attributed to the system of government in each country. Nevertheless, respondents in African and Asia-Pacific countries were of the view that the use of ICTs is more of a private-sector led initiative rather than government-backed activity. During the Sanni Abacha-led military dictatorship in Nigeria when this research was conducted, respondents stated the government was apathetic to promoting ICTs at all levels of society. Using the Internet as an example, some respondents attributed government’s unwillingness to promote ICTs to a fear that radical/dissident groups within and outside the country could use the Internet to promote subversive activities against the government. Against this background, it could be argued therefore that government’s indifference to the promotion of ICTs in Nigeria during the Abacha regime could be linked to the lack of a science and technology policy in the country. This view however flies in the face of general perception in other parts of the world, including Africa, where the general opinion was that ICTs held the key to socioeconomic development. It is worrying that whereas ICTs were associated with the democratization of information and communication in other parts of the world, in Nigeria, however, ICTs were perceived in government circles as a dangerous weapon which should, as much as possible, be kept away from the larger segment of the population.

Although ICTs were predominantly a private sector-led activity in Ghana, government input in the promotion of these technologies has been widely hailed.

Well, the government on their part have done very well to the extent that they took off sales tax from people bringing in computers. The idea is to bring in more computers at reduced rates. The only thing is that we’re being let down, we don’t develop software here. (Gha/AK)

To make it easier for everybody, in our Customs tariffs, computers are duty-free. So, increasingly it’s going to be a bare affordable gadget. (Gha/Director)

In about 140 of our educational institutions, we have established science resource centres which are also being given computer facilities which, hopefully, will also allow them increasingly to have access to educational programs, thus opening the way for, if you like, systems learning. (Gha/PR)

… we ourselves in this ministry have a homepage on the Internet — www.ghanagov.gh — which allows us to put out information on Ghana for investors, for tourists, for students and whoever is interested in getting information on Ghana and it’s an interactive facility where we respond to the questions and so on. (Gha/Director)

Respondents in Cote d’Ivoire stated that there was some level of government support for the growth of ICTs in the country, although government was more prone to lean toward programmes aimed at poverty alleviation rather than direct funding of ICTs.

Inherent in these findings is the relationship/influence of system of government on the promotion of ICTs in each country. In more stable democracies such as Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, ICTs were seen as tools that aid development and were being actively promoted by the government. However, in a military dictatorship such as Nigeria, the study found the government was unwilling to support the use of ICTs because it feared for the inherent dangers to which dissident groups could put these technologies. One can therefore argue that the fear of ICTs in Nigeria emanated from the ability of ICTs to make available divergent views on any subject. Thus, ICTs at all levels of society and particularly lower levels of society encourage self-empowerment.  It is important to point out that Nigeria returned to a democracy on the 29 May 1999. The findings reported here were collected during January/February 1998 when interviews were conducted in Nigeria.

Another significant finding of this study is that, useful as ICTs are to the development of Africa and Asia-Pacific, they also leave in their wake certain consequences which the respondents were quick to point out. In other words, ICTs have their drawbacks as well. For example, some respondents in Fiji and the Philippines noted that ICTs were not all that appropriate to their cultural context.

The Internet opened everything for anybody who wants information. Our concern is that it could be contrary to our customs. For example, pornography now is open and students and staff members can access this… It could cause some social problems. (Fij/KF)

ICTs will create new wants and will result in waste. I think we need to step back and study what is good for us and how we can make use of these technologies given our limited resources. (Phil/RV)

What are the issues of concern regarding ICTs in fledgling African economies? Much as ICTs enhance efficiency at work, there are genuine fears that they could also engender unemployment in various ways and promote cultural imperialism.

UNEMPLOYMENT:

… how does an economy like this sustain so many typists, so many printing presses that could go out of business because of ordinary desktop publishing activities. Whilst it facilitates, it also kills some labour intensive sectors of the economy. How do we deal with that? (Gha/AK)

If you look at the postal system also, I do not know its impact, but certainly faxes, telephones are minimising postage and so on. Email is minimising all that. Whilst it facilitates communication, what about people who would be thrown off employment? (Gha/KK)

CULTURAL CONCERNS:

If you look at their application in some areas like film animation, these are very useful for cartoon animation but nobody has put on our television African image cartoons and so on. And there are so many other cultural implications that we haven’t yet looked at. (Gha/AK)

… look at the computers we use. Nobody has sat down to introduce on the keyboards, the alphabets of the Ghanaian language. Some of these basic cultural things…, we’re still using the same software that are culturally bound. … if you go to places like Ethiopia or Eritrea, they have their alphabets on their computers. So what are we doing in West Africa about inputting, developing, and inputting our software. (Gha/Kari)

LOCAL PRODUCTION:

I’m more concerned, anytime we talk about new technologies, is how are we going to be involved in the production of the hardware. Are we going to be allowed to produce certain parts? (Civ/FE)

I believe simply acquiring these things to use is not going to be enough. It could help a lot in changing things, in helping us improve upon our living conditions but as far as I am concerned, this is only on condition that we are going to be able to produce some of the hardware and software that would be involved in the usage. Gha/AK)
Futures of ICTs in Africa and Asia-Pacific

There were certain recurrent themes about the envisaged futures of ICTs in Africa and Asia-Pacific. These include:

·        greater education of the population to achieve computer literacy;

·        deregulation of the telecommunications industry to promote competition and price reduction;

·        greater dependence on the new technologies and the consequent displacement of human services;

·        popularisation of ICTs in all human activities and government intervention to ensure that marginalised members of society have access to the new technologies; leadership to be provided by businesses such as banks because the new technologies will impact on their activities;

·        continuation of the struggle to dispel the prevailing notion that one is poor if one does not have ICTs and that anyone thinking of becoming rich must acquire ICTs;

·        Use of ICTs in distance education (through web-based studies) and distance medicine.

In general, however, there was quite a bit of divergence when it came to discussion on the likely and preferred futures of ICTs.

Respondents felt that while the future was “mind boggling” a measured pace was needed. The wider community needed to be taken along.  Some believed that telecommunication giants would create the future, and others felt that consumers would lead the way.  In the Philippines, government was seen as a regulator, in Fiji, NGOs and the private sector were seen as more important in creating the future, while in Africa, government was seen as a benign force.

Consumers will always hold the preferred future of anything. (Fiji, TP)

Developments should be at a measured pace …to develop the wider community good with a need  to keep pace with world developments and take advantage. (Fiji/MB)

I can foresee things like telehealth and distance learning but it’ll need assistance from NGOS. They’re not things that the private sector will take on because their bottom line is money. (Fiji/CM)

Public facilities – ICTs – [should be] made accessible to everybody… the government should not … turn the country into one huge market for foreign ICT products. (Philippines/RV)

Government should come in seriously … let government invite specific investors for ICTs (Uganda/ZM).

The most important dimension of the future was education. ICTs, it was believed, could fundamentally transform education.

Discussion

Certain issues have emerged from this study. The first concerns the level of awareness and usage of ICTs. While awareness level may be high, only a few people have access to these technologies in Africa and Asia-Pacific regions. The reasons for this situation are many. These include ignorance, general poverty in society, poor culture of maintenance and repair, poor infrastructural support base (inefficiency in electricity and telephone systems), lack of support from government, illiteracy and lack of basic computing skills, absence of science and technology policy, and unstable political systems (mostly in Africa) which lead to low foreign investment in science and technology development. Although optimism was high about the usefulness of ICTs, there were also concerns about the social consequences of ICTs such as their potential to exacerbate unemployment even as they help society to do things better and faster; concern about ICTs helping to ‘corrupt’ local traditions and cultures through provision of easy access to pornography; stifling of local languages through consistent use of the language of the Internet — English; as well as worries about non-local input into software production

The impact on education and socioeconomic development of new communication technologies such as computers, interactive multimedia systems, digital telecommunications and the Internet will remain the subject of arguments among communication scholars in developed and developing societies.  As noted in the early part of this report, the new communication technologies have their strengths and drawbacks.  McQuail (1987) and Pool (1975) have argued, from the perspective of the developed world, that rather than pose a threat to the developing countries, the new technologies carry numerous advantages which should be utilised to enhance telecommunications services and to ensure the democratization of information.

Although McQuail (1987) pointed to “an increase in communication of all kinds”, it must be pointed out, on the basis of the findings of this study, that developing African and Asia-Pacific societies will enjoy the increase in communication only when the question of access to the new technologies has been sorted out. If access to the new technologies is limited to a small segment of the population, it follows that the impact of the new ICTs will also be limited to the few members of society. Just as access to the mass media is limited in rural areas of developing countries, so too will access to the new technologies be limited to a few individuals who can afford to acquire the new technologies. Addressing the more immediate and basic needs of African and Asia-Pacific countries along with acquisition of the new technologies appears to be the more appropriate approach to adopt. As some of the respondents pointed out, the world waits for no one and so too are developments in ICT.

Addressing the more immediate and basic needs of Africa, along with acquisition of appropriate technologies appears to be the more reasonable approach to adopt. As some of the respondents pointed out, the world waits for no one and so too are developments in ICT.

Conclusion

This preliminary research on ICT adoption in Africa and the Asia-Pacific suggests that there are serious barriers to their use in educational and socioeconomic development, such as issues of infrastructure support, access to the ICTs, training and skills development, and hierarchical social relations which determine who has access to ICTs.

We are concerned that the implementation of ICTs is occurring in a context where the cultural and institutional barriers are not well addressed. The assumption often made is that if one just purchases a few computers and modems, a post-industrial society can magically result.

Developing African and Asia-Pacific countries are caught in a Catch-22 situation: without using these new technologies, their future generations will further lag behind and will find themselves further impoverished. If they use these technologies without addressing some of the concerns and needs of their societies, they could be placing their carts before their horses. We believe that what is needed most is effective and efficient, not to mention wise, telecommunications and culture policy, as well as research that informs such policy. As noted in the early part of this report, the new communication technologies have their strengths and drawbacks, they should not merely be seen as apolitical tools but as embedded in culture, politics and our mutual futures.  This means that their transference must not only be about the hardware transfer but about software transfer, institutional support, servicing, and in the long run, about facilitating the transformation of users in Africa and the Asia-Pacific from consumers to producers of knowledgeware.

Implementation recommendations

What is needed now are experiments/practices/plans in which ICTs are understood, engaged in, and developed in local and historical contexts. This means a development approach based on anticipatory action learning, where the users frame their needs, and where future needs are explored. Doing so means not so much an overall strategy but a framework of communication between different parties, users, the private sector, business, government, and large telecommunication corporations.

Moving this research to the implementation phase, we recommend the following:

·        Implementation must be linked to local problems, specifically to poverty alleviation. This linkage must be direct, showing stakeholders the benefits of using ICTs for economic growth.

·        Implementation must also show how ICTs can transform education, making it far more interactive and empowering for students and professors/teachers. CD-ROMs and access to the web must not only be inexpensive, but as much as possible be locally driven, based on local content.

·        Implementation must help transform users of ICTs in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from consumers to producers of new knowledge and wealth. Dissemination of hardware must include software support, institutional linkages, and servicing. This must be done in the context of local cultural practices including those that inhibit ICT use (hierarchical institutional practices).

·        Implementation must occur with a policy context guided by participatory action research, where all stakeholders in an iterative manner define their needs, goals and concerns.

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Varan, Duane (1993) “Introducing television: Seven lessons from the Cook Islands,” Pacific Islands Communication Journal, Vol. 16, No. 1.

Yu, Frederick T.C. (1977) “Communication Policy and Planning for Development: Some Notes on Research,” in Lerner, Daniel and Nelson, Lyle M. (eds.) Communication Research ‑‑ A Half Century Appraisal. Honolulu: The University Press of Hawaii.

Project Consultants:

·        Dr. Levi Obijiofor is a Lecturer in the Department of Journalism, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. Between May 1996 and July 1998, he was a Research Fellow at The Communication Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia. Obijiofor has worked at various times as Sub-Editor, Production Editor, and Night Editor in a leading independent English language newspaper – The Guardian – in Lagos, Nigeria. Between March 1995 and May 1996, he worked in the Division of Studies and Programming (BPE/BP) in the Paris headquarters of UNESCO where he co-ordinated and edited the bulletin and database of future-oriented literature – FUTURESCO. His contact details are: Telephone: +61 7 3365 2627; Fax: +61 7 3365 1377; E-mail: l.obijiofor@mailbox.uq.edu.au

·        Dr. Sohail Inayatullah is a fellow with the World Futures Studies Federation and a member of the executive board. He is also a fellow of the World Academy of Art and Science, and co-editor of the Journal of Futures Studies and associate editor of New Renaissance. In 1999, he holds a variety of academic positions, including Unesco Chair, University of Trier; Tamkang Chair, Tamkang University; Professor and Chair of the School of Futures Studies, International Management Centres; and, Honorary Visiting Fellow, Queensland University of Technology. Inayatullah can be reached at: 5/15 Elliott Street, Hawthorne, 4171, Queensland, Australia. Email: s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au.. Web: www.others.com, www.ru.org, www.worldfutures.org.

·        Associate Professor Tony Stevenson was formerly Director of the Communication Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia. He is now President, World Futures Studies Federation, c/- Noosa Institute for the Future, P.O. Box 188, Noosa Heads 4567, Australia. Phones +61 7 5447 4394, +61 419 782 431; Fax +61 7 5448 0776; Email: tony.stevenson@WorldFutures.org; Web: www.worldfutures.org.

Interviewers:

Ingrid Leary, Lecturer, Department of Journalism, PO Box 1168, University of South Pacific. Email: leary_i@usp.ac.fj.

Alan  Alegre, Director, Foundation for Media Alternatives, Manila, Philippines. Email: alalegre@codewan.com.ph.

Zaali Majanja, Coordinator, World Futures Studies Club – Uganda. PO Box 3306, Kampala, Uganda. Fax: 256-41-530397.

Levi Obijiofor, Lecturer, Department of Journalism, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia.

The Futures of Volunteerism (2000)

Sohail Inayatullah

To understand the futures of volunteerism, we need to unpack current perspectives and practices of volunteerism.

First volunteerism makes sense in the context of a paid economy, that is, wherein labour in monetized. It is its opposite. In a society where there is no scarcity, the entire society would be about volunteerism.  That is, it exists in the context of certain things that have to be done – the famous job. As the future of work is being transformed, potentially creating a world where only 10% will work, the issue of what will the rest do can be partly solved by volunteerism. The 90% who do not work will either be well off because of technology or permanently the underclass. In either case, the issue of intellectual and spiritual development will be problematic since there will be no challenge. Volunteerism provides a vehicle to express some of these potentials.

Historically, volunteerism was central to society, it was part of community building, take care of others, indeed, central to agricultural/feudal society.  It was especially strong in religious systems. In Islam, this was focused on feeding the poor, neighbors and relatives. However, there was no specific term called volunteerism. This is modern, it appears.

VOLUNTEERISM IN INDUSTRIAL TIMES

Volunteerism in industrial times is essentially about the following:

  • Partly about charity (do good work for others). This is generally about volunteerism and idealism. Volunteerism makes us a better person and it builds the community. Those activities that the state or market cannot pay for, volunteers can handle.
  • Partly about filling in the spaces that the State cannot cover.  With globalization and the resultant pressure to reduce state expenditures, volunteerism becomes on of the easiest ways out for the State. No structural changes are needed. Privatization can continue unabated.
  • Volunteerism, while idealistic, is also about nation-building and nation-legitimacy. Behind it is the notion that we should sacrifice to make a great nation. Business is working hard, the State is working hard, now each and every citizen should give of their labour to create a great nation. Images of and stories of sacrifice are used to convince citizens. This is most often done in times of war but as well as part of economic development and disaster relief.
  • Volunteerism is also partly about social movements. In this sense volunteerism is not merely about charity or nation building but about transforming society. With globalization expanding the economic sphere (creating us all into consumers and economic rationalists) and the State sphere either increasing this process (becoming more efficient, transparent, citizen oriented, democratic but with far less funds), issues of solidarity, partnership, justice, morality are lost. Environmental concerns, women’s concerns and those negatively impacted by globalization are dealt with through volunteer labour. However, this volunteerism is not beholden to state, rather it is about transforming state and economy, creating a dynamic civil society. If we take a spatial view, it is about challenging the expansion of the market (or at the very least, helping those who fall through the cracks of globalization) and enhancing the size of the people’s culture. This means as well expansion relative to the size of the state.
  • Volunteerism is also partly about what to do with youth. Given that there are not enough jobs for young people, what should they do. Volunteerism becomes a state sponsored solution to crime, to minds with nothing to do, and to the bio-psychological transition to young people go through as they become adults.

POST-SCARCITY FUTURES

However as we move to a post-industrial, postmodern economy, volunteerism takes on a different guise. Volunteerism becomes the answer to the question of what to do in a leisure society wherein scarcity is no longer a problem.

This has two phases. The first is the current stage where most work in most industrial societies is no longer essential for housing, food, clothes, education and health. It is featherbedding, engaged in to keep all employed. We could easily reorganize society to eliminated 40-50 of current jobs (much of government, the advertising industry, the endless product churning out machines and structures).

The second phase is essentially about the Long Boom, or incredible growth through nano-technology, artificial intelligence and genetic technologies. Endless wealth creation and for all practical purposes the elimination of scarcity, first in all OECD nations, and second, through out the world.

Given that we define ourselves by how we work and how we consume, what then? Volunteerism gives us a glimpse of a meaningful future – that is, engaging in activities that benefit others. It also helps us escape consumer culture.

SCENARIOS

The future of volunteerism is generally dependent on the future of the world system.

In a globalized economy (where the key driver in the economy)  volunteerism will continue to expand as it will be necessary to fill services that markets and the state are unwilling or incapable of doing so. This is especially the case with an aging society.

In a post-scarcity artificial economy (where the key driver is technology), volunteerism will be directly related to meaning, to finding ways to create social community with others, to learn about others, to do things with others.

In the current world, a bit globalized, a bit nation-state dominated, a bit church dominated, volunteerism will continue to take many guises. These include as part of nation-building (long live our state), as local community development, a charity for the poor, as an alternative to military service.

In a world that collapses because of the crash of world capitalism or climate change, volunteerism will be main activity, providing the glue for communities under distress.

However, for volunteerism to fulfil its idealistic dimension, it will need to clear about its vision. For me, this has to be about service to others. This means service to plants, animals, and human being through physical activity, intellectual activity and spiritual activity.

Ultimately, volunteerism is about creating a new type of world – one where individuals are not commodified by markets or oppressed by states but find ways to express the softer dimensions of culture.

VOLUNTEER FUTURES

What then specifically can we say about the futures of volunteerism. These are the following scenarios.

1.      Volunteerism as Expanding Civil Society – Volunteerism remains about developing one’s own human potential and about expanding the circle of civil society. Volunteerism grows as society becomes officially less caring and more finance driven. With less money for the public, only volunteers can soothe the pains caused by globalization.  Volunteerism, however, becomes an agent for social change, uniting with other social movements for a different social contract than that offered by globalization. Volunteerism is essential in creating a global moral society. Volunteerism moves from taking care of the individual to social transformation.

2.      Volunteerism as charity. Volunteerism remains tied to individual actions, as part of either feeling good, or reducing guilty, or as stop-gap measures that Big Capital and Big Government are unable to adequately respond to.  Volunteerism becomes a major activity of elderly people. It is how they pass their time and find meaning.

3.      Volunteerism as Expanding the State. In this last scenario, volunteerism expands but generally to celebrate the nation-state or the corporation or some other abstract entity. Volunteers are used for social and political purposes. They are organized and “governmentalized” to use a Foucauldian phrase.

Which futures emerge is dependent on a variety of forces. First, how grand trends such as globalization play themselves out. Second, the impact of aging on wealthy societies. Third, the capacity of social movements to organize and create a new global contract between self, other, nature and polity. Fourth, agency within volunteer movements themselves, particularly their vision of the future. While technology, globalization and changing demographics push the future, the preferred vision is the pull of the future. Without this pull, volunteerism and volunteer organizations will find their futures appropriate for nation and capital, and not for the idealism that is essentially their reason for being.

Trends Transforming the Futures of General Practice and Practitioners: Or is there a doctor in your future(s)? (2000)

Presentation to the Queensland Divisions of General Practice, Brisbane, February 11, 2000

By Sohail Inayatullah

 

FUTURES

To begin with, the purpose of futures thinking is only marginally prediction. More important is opening up the future to alternative interpretations. This allows a discussion, a debate, of alternative presents. Basic assumptions of what we believe is most significant, what we think is the true state of affairs, and how best we desire to change the world can thus be questioned.

To understand the future, futurists tend to use a range of methods. These include:

  • Trend analysis – a quantitative approach to the shape of change
  • Emerging issue analysis– the search for issues that have the promise to foundationally society. These issues are often irrelevant to immediate strategic concerns but crucial to map as they can sidetrack any strategy.
  • Scenarios – stories or pictures, considered an easy and elegant way to map the future. Scenarios can be global, operational, convergent or divergent.
  • Visioning – determining the future one desires
  • Anticipatory Action learning – quite the opposite of strategic planning consisting of creating the future through experiments, and then following a cycle of reflection, action, reflection, always questioning and improving the process.

This said what are the likely futures of general practice in the next ten to fifteen years? Which trends are opening up the future and which are constricting what is possible? To understand the future we must find a balance between our personal and collective desires as well as with structure -real economic, political, technological, cultural drivers and forces that are already creating the future. Indeed, while many claim the future five to ten years hence requires a crystal ball, the opposite is true. The short-term future is the known future, forces, giant waves of change, are already underway. While we can ride these forces, little can be changed.

Merely desiring other futures in the short run, while important in setting up alternative action steps, generally can change very little. Thus the need for an expanded time horizon in which real change is possible.

TRENDS TRANSFORMING GP FUTURES

Five trends are crucial: Globalisation, the internet revolution, the genetics revolution, the multicultural swing and ageing. The first two are full blown trends while the latter three are emerging, and will, I believe, create futures that we are unrecognizable to us today.

Globalisation

For the general practitioner what is relevant is that Globalisation leads to:

  1. More and quicker access to news and technological breakthroughs elsewhere. This is true for doctors as well as patients. Moreover, under the pressure of Globalisation, universal definitions of health are far more difficult to hold on to. [1]
  2. The corporatisation of businesses, partly the buying out of national business to global players, but as well the adoption of the corporate business model for all service providers. For small practices, corporatisation usually means vertical integration. At the national and global level, it means the merger of giant pharmaceutical companies. Doctors will have to develop strategies to fend off vertical integration (through strategic alliances) or through setting up of their own national corporation or at the very least ensure that corporatisation occurs on their terms.
  3. Globalisation is also a direct challenge to the welfare state model, in the health field to the idea of universal cover.[2] Whether for ideological reasons (privatization or market forces are more efficient and better meet customers’ needs) or cost reasons (ageing of population, medicalisation of illnesses) universal health care, as achieved in advanced OECD nations, is under threat.
  4. While the debate between cradle to grave versus a mix of private/public or totally private goes back and forth, Australia’s generous model of Medicare is unlikely to continue.
  5. Globalisation also changes the governance context of health futures. It makes national boundaries far more porous. While not eliminating the nation-state, it certainly makes action at the very local level (the shire council), the associative (with local and transnational non-governmental organisations) and at the very global (the entire host of UN families, WHO), far more potent. However the de-evolution of responsibility has generally not come with concomitant funds, thus changing the local-federal power relations and expectations. However, this loss of local funding has been partly solved by an expanding civil society, the gamut of local and international nongovernmental organisations, from Medicine sans Frontiers to Amnesty International.

The Internet Revolution (IR)

Working in tandem with globalisation, indeed, accelerating this process is the .com revolution. While currently this is web-based, very soon this will expand to higher levels of virtualisation. This will lead to the always on, wearable computers, or web-bots. These emergent health bots may take a robotic form or a more virtual form – either a robodoc or an always- present doctors.com.[3]

In a rudimentary form, telemedicine is already current underway in Australia (2000 hours of consultations are conducted monthly)[4] and consists of:

  • tele-assistance, consulting with doctors using email and videoconferencing
  • using nurses to preform simple procedures supervised by video-linked doctors (remote supervision)
  • Access to research data bases as well as potentially a medical records database

The justification and goal of telemedicine is to use technology wisely so that the institutional care costs (21billion dollars of the 46$billion Australian dollar budget) are reduced.[5]

However, we should not be lulled into thinking this is a win-win technology. The internet revolution will take away business for certain GPs. Individuals are already going to doctors.com sites for general informational purposes. Overtime this will lead to therapeutic assistance. Already webmd/Healtheon, the .com business, is a huge business in the US, currently capitalised at 8.5 billion. Moreover, while at a superficial level it appears that the information era means that economies now enter win-win relations (passing on information to another does not diminish one’s own information in contrast to passing on raw materials to others), in reality those who enter the new economy first create infrastructure monopolies or lock-ins. The smart get smarter and instead of diminishing returns there are increasing returns. Earlier entrants into the internet – digital doctor space – will be able to capture attention, visual space, one of the most important characteristics of success in the new economy. They will grow and have an advantage over traditional practices as well as later cyber med entrants.

Moreover, our understanding of cyberspace should not be limited by its current function. For example, in the near term future, sensors will be developed that detect health problems through the smell of breath and alert doctors for early diagnosis.[6]

As the web develops, we can anticipate health-bots or health coaches, that is, always-on wearable computers. They will provide individualized immediate feedback to our behavior, for example, letting us know caloric intake, the amount of exercise needed to burn off the pizza we just ate. They will also let us know the make-up of each product we are considering purchasing, helping us to identify allergies, for example. [7]These intelligence computer systems would be reflexive knowledge systems, learning about us and our preferred and not so preferred external environment.

Writes health futurist Clement Bezold:

Future approaches to heart problems reflect ongoing changes in health care and biomedical knowledge. In 2010, our DNA profile will be part of our electronic medical record, and our genetically based proclivity to major diseases, including heart disease, will be known. There will be sophisticated, low-cost, noninvasive or minimally invasive biomonitoring devices; for example, a wristwatch device will provide very accurate, ongoing information on your health status.

You will likely have powerful in-home expert systems, probably supplied by your health-care provider, which will not only aid diagnosis but also reinforce pursuit of your chosen health goals. These expert systems, or electronic personal guides, will tailor the information to your own knowledge level, interest level, and learning style, as well as those of your family members, each of whom would have a personal electronic “health coach.” If you are genetically or otherwise inclined to heart disease, your coach will encourage specific preventive measures[8]

The assumption here is that 50% of the variance of the causes of preventable premature death is due to behavior (20% genes, 20% environment and 10% is related to medical care).[9] It is this 50% that that the health-bot – the health professional on a wrist – will help us manage. [10]We can always take it off unless insurance companies step in and require their continuous use for cheaper premiums. Of course, geneticists argue that genes play a much bigger role than 20% and it is genomics and germ-line engineering that will have a far more profound impact on our health.

The questions for gps is: will doctors.com and health-bots squeeze traditional practitioners or give them a new way to meet patient’s needs? Can GPs help design the content of these new health tools or will they be passive recipients?

In the long run, this means that there will be smarter consumers who will check on research studies and be able to maneuver in a world of conflicting data and conflicting paradigms. Smarter and more empowered consumers should make the jobs of GPs easier. However, as smart cards and health-bots continue to evolve, their intelligence will certainly reduce doctor’s visits, saving money to the health system but as well forcing GPs to reconsider their role in the health system. GPs, however, will need to quickly become net-savvy, seeing it as a way to communicate with patients especially younger patients raised on the net – the .com generation. [11]

We know that every year 85% of Australians visit a GP – over 100 million GP consultations. Every year these consultations cost 2.5billion aud.[12] And every year other costs resulting from visits to GPs, such as drug prescriptions, tests and investigations, and specialists visits, add up to more than 7billion aud$. The question is: might doctors.com reduce these costs?

Or will health-bots become the new gatekeepers, that is, will the technology in itself become the new middle-man? And if so, will they be able to ensure patients rights, one of the key dimensions of the GPs work. The other dimensions being: business, profession, part of the health bureaucracy, and community centre.

Indeed, we can well see how globalisation and the internet revolution further individualize medicine reducing the probability of the community health paradigm.

A question for GPs is: should they have their own websites or should the Practice have a web kiosk there so that patients can go to doctors.com and get basic information. Should they recommend particular websites? Is it ethical to do so? How can they best use the new technologies and ensure they are not used by them? They will need to use them, already estimates of e-business are to go from 61 million in 1997 to 1.3 billion aud in 2001.[13]

The third revolution is genetics

The first step in the genetics revolution is identifying what diseases one is predisposed to. Next is gene therapy (replacing a defective gene and therefore a disease causing gene with a healthy one). Further sophisticated and quite likely is body part cloning (growing replica parts to replace faulty ones). Combined with the information and technology revolution, we will have hospitals on our wrists, actually, within our bodies.

Genomics thus will identify what genes and what physical of behavioral characteristics (genotypes and phenotypes) are most relevant for determining how to treat a given condition. This allows for customization (the claim interestingly of alternative/complimentary whole person therapies as well).

Will the GP need to become the genetic counselor as well? Or will the GP need to ensure that a genetic counselor is on board?

Leroy Hood, William Gates Professor of Biomedical Sciences and the founding Chair of the Department of Molecular Biology at the University of Washington, believes that overtime we will be able to determine what genes or combination of genes cause certain types of behavior.[14] However, the genetics revolution’s full potential lies with germ line engineering, which modified or manipulates the human DNA, for example by altering the DNA of an unborn child in order to eliminate or decrease a predisposition towards a given disease. Germ line engineering can as well pre-select ideal sperm and eggs for fertilization, thus affecting the germ lines of generations to come.[15]

The mapping of human genome also transforms the nature of science, making it global and discovery-based instead of hypothesis-based. It also changes biology from its historical machine metaphor to an informational metaphor. There appear at this stage few limits with science fiction even too timid. Already the first synthetic DNA was created by scientists at the University of Texas. Researchers are “planning to create a series of designer bugs, with super efficient mechanisms for infecting target tissues such as cancer tumors, and then killing them[16]

And if nano-technology delivers what it promises than our entire bodies will become a pharmaceutical factory, reading to detect, diagnose and react to imbalances, says Bezold.[17]

The claims of the Foresight Institute headed by Eric Drexler are equally grand[18]

  • A mouthwash full of smart nanomachines could do all that brushing and flossing do and more, and with far less effort—making it more likely to be used. This mouthwash would identify and destroy pathogenic bacteria while allowing the harmless flora of the mouth to flourish in a healthy ecosystem
  • Medical nanodevices could augment the immune system by finding and disabling unwanted bacteria and viruses.
  • Medical nanodevices will be able to stimulate and guide the body’s own construction and repair mechanisms to restore healthy tissue
  • Viruses can be eliminated by molecular-level cellular surgery. The required devices could be small enough to fit entirely within the cell, if need be. Greg Fahy, who heads the Organ Cryopreservation Project at the American Red Cross’s Jerome Holland Transplantation Laboratory, writes, “Calculations imply that molecular sensors, molecular computers, and molecular effectors can be combined into a device small enough to fit easily inside a single cell and powerful enough to repair molecular and structural defects (or to degrade foreign structures such as viruses and bacteria) as rapidly as they accumulate. . . .There is no reason such systems cannot be built and function as designed.”[19]

Multiculturalism

The fourth trend can be termed loosely the multicultural trend. By this I mean (1) the social construction of medicine movement, for example, mapping how diseases are named, called and treated variously in different nations. (2) The move toward alternative medicine or complimentary medicine, primarily drawing on Chinese and Indian traditions of meditation and acupuncture but as well less accepted alternatives such as homeopathy (from Germany).

The data is stunning. In the US, a Harvard Medical School Study reports that 64% of medical schools offered elective courses in complementary medicine.[20] The study also reports that one in every three American adults uses such alternative treatments such as chiropractic, acupuncture and homeopathy. They assert that: “patients see conventional medicine as ineffectual, too expensive or too centered on curing disease rather than maintaining good health.”[21]

In Australia, the estimate in a 1993 study is 621million aud for alternative medicine and 309 million for alternative therapists. [22]This compares with 360 million aud for all classes of pharmaceutical drugs purchased in Australia in 1992/93.[23]

Users tended to be female and better educated. But what accounts for this? Is it the deficiencies in conventional care? And what accounts for this when one can question the paucity of sound safety and efficacy data, ask many GPs.

An article in the Medical Journal of Australia finds that Victoria over 80% of general practitioners have referred patients to alternative therapies. 34% are trained in meditation, 23% acupuncture and 20% herbal medicine. Of particular interest is that nearly all GPs agreed that acupuncture should be funded and 91% believe hypnosis should and 77% believe meditation should and 69% for chiropractic. 93% believe that it should be part of the undergraduate core curriculum.[24]

Doctors worry about the professionalism of alternative practitioners as well as scientific studies supporting them. It is likely that the therapies supported by doctors are those with strong empirical evidence, for example, Dean Ornish’s focus on life style changes (diet, stress management, personal growth, reducing social isolation and exercise) has shown that heart disease can be reversed. A major insurance company pays for individuals to attend his program.[25] Data around the world shows interest among GP increasing as well as by users.

However, what may account for the interest and use in alternative therapies is that they empower individuals as alternative therapists tend to spend greater amounts of time with users and attempt to customize therapy. This is the suggested by George T Lewith, Honorary Senior Research Fellow and Honorary Consultant Physician, School of Medicine, University of Southampton, United Kingdom, in his review of the literature on complementary medicine.

He writes: [26]

Disenchantment with conventional medicine is not necessarily the reason why patients turn to CAM. One suggestion is that patients are increasingly knowledgeable about CAM and seek a more egalitarian process within the consultation. It has been confirmed that patients seek CAM because of an intuitive feeling that it could offer them a more appropriate medical model for their illness. Patients may therefore not be seeking proof of efficacy of particular treatments, but meaning and context for their illness, thus allowing them the freedom to benefit from therapeutic consultations within their chosen milieu. Why should we impose our medical model on patients? Their use of CAM may be their process of empowerment, which in turn allows them to contain and manage their chronic illness. It is perhaps difficult for those of us educated within the conventional medical system to allow our patients the freedom to make such journeys in a truly egalitarian manner.

Support for a model more in tune with the Australian population may also come from the changing demographics of medical students in Australia. There will be more students from a rural background, more from an Asian background, but most significantly admissions policies are now being expanded to include the qualities of communication, tolerance, insight into others’ worldviews, and commitment to patients and their interests as a priority.[27]

Ageing

There is a fifth trend that is ageing, suffice to say it will be dramatic. While genomics, health-bots and alternative therapies may make us healthier, the data generally does not look good for the aged.

The average person is sick or disabled for nearly 80 percent of the extra years of life he or she gains as life expectancy rises. [28] Health expenditure for Australians over 65 is already four times higher than for the rest of the population. The World Health Organization estimates that by 2020 depression will be the leading cause of “disability adjusted life years“ dramatically increasing the demands for psychiatric health services for young and old. [29] The aged, particularly those removed from family and community, will be especially prone to mental illnesses. In Queensland, Australia the proportion of those over 60 years will increase from 15% in 1995 to 23% in 2031. Already 25% of those over 65 demonstrate functional psychiatric disorders.[30]

The financial implications will be tremendous as well – the retiree to worker ratio will go from the 3 to 1 to 1.5 to 1. Who will buy the stocks when baby boomers sell for retirement as there is no age cohort of that size and income level to follow? [31]How will society react to the average age going from 20 to 40?[32] Where will innovation come from?

Moreover the WHO reports that while ageing is dramatic problem so the global teenager. By 2025 the teenager cohort will have grown by 252 million from two thousand million in 2001.[33]

THE CHOICES AHEAD

Given these futures what should the GP do. There are a few distinct options:

  1. Multi-door health community centre which has a high tech component, a genetic counselor and complimentary medicine. While GPs might remain the gatekeepers, they will have to augment their understanding of the Net, becoming knowledge navigators. However, GPs will have to focus as well as on what technology cannot give – warmth, human understanding and empathy – as well as what some alternative therapies cannot give either, tough, rigorous analysis. It is this multiple function in the context of respect and authority that will GPs ahead of the curve.

The challenge will be to find the value added, to anticipate the changing health needs of citizens instead of assuming that patients will be like yesterday’s patients. We already know that generation x is more aspiration driven concerned about the environment and the community than previous generations.[34] Indeed, what shows up consistently in research around the world on preferred visions of the future is that individuals, especially in the West, have a great need and desire for community, for interconnection. [35]Individuals want to believe and feel that the GP is not far away but part of their community. GPs that can best develop the multi-door health center in the context of community medicine will prosper.

  1. Become or remain a mass provider, the bulkbilling scenario. This in the short run might be the way to go but health-bots and the internet are likely to reduce the profits on the mass market health business. The mass market health care dollars might go to the new technologies. Especially as the patient-in, patient-out system appears to be what users do not want. However, it is cheap. The question is: will it retain its value for money? The answer to this question is partly based on what type of economy and health system Australia will have? Will it manage to retain universal care? In any case, for the medicare system to survive, there will have to be some level of internet technology as well, clicks and mortar, and the rapidly ageing and not necessarily healthy (but possibly with genomics and nano-technology around the corner) age-cohort.
  1. Find specific niches not being met by doctors.com, the alternative system or genomics. Or excel at one of these niche areas, that is, become the best possible GP knowledge navigator, It might also mean finding new partners, expanding beyond the federal or state levels to international non-governmental health organizations – the global third sector. Or focus on specific demographic groups – the global teenager and the aged who will need extra care and find out what their specific needs are. This also means designing waiting rooms in practices to reflect their ideals.

The question is: will these trends impact the three most common reasons for people going to their GPs (prescriptions, coughs and cardiac check-ups) Yes or no. What new reasons might they go to GPs for, new diseases?

What this means is that GPs will have to reinvent themselves, discerning what role they desire for themselves in the future. They will need to ask what level of technology are they familiar with, can they adapt to? Can they become knowledge navigators? Can they use the new technologies to increase their own quality of life, using the Net for seamless administration, so that their hours can be more flexible? Can they enter into dialogue with complementary medicine or at least begin to listen carefully to patient’s concerns about their treatment, that is, about their body-mind-spirit-environment-community needs?

If GPs are unable to reinvent themselves and meet the changing needs of their patients then one future is clear: general practitioners will come to be considered as quaint alternative medicine practitioners – the definition of general practice will have changed.

CONCLUSION

If we go back a century or even 30 years, we know that changes in science and technology have been tremendous. There is no let up in sight. In such an environment, trying to forecast the future accurately is a mistake. Determining alternative futures is a step forward as worst case and best case scenarios can be developed. Scenarios based on different drivers – technology, values, economics – can be explored. But more important than scenario planning is developing institutional foresight, the capacity to respond to changing needs, to create a multicultural learning and growing organization, community. GP organizations, state divisions will need to swiftly embark on creating health learning organizations that exemplify the type of future they want.


[1] See, Which-doctors diagnose us: Medicine still tribal in our high-tech era. The Sunday Star-Bulletin and Advertiser (Honolulu, March 12, 1989), d-2. Noteworthy is: Lynn Payer, Medicine and Culture.

[2] See, Roy Moynihan, Professor warns of Medicare’s ultimate demolition, The Australian Financial Review (February 17, 2000), 5.

[3] For more on this, see bochemist and medical journalist Alexandra Wyke’s 21st Century Miracle Medicine: RoboSurgery, Wonder Cures, and the Quest for Immortality (Plenum, 1997). Writes Wyke: Surgey will depend not on the steady hand and experience of the doctor but on devices such as the recently invented ROBODOC, combined with new imagery technology and computers that essentially make flesh and bone transparent in 3-D images, allowing machines to make cuts or dissolve tumors and blockages in exactly the right place.

[4] See, Call the doctor online, The Sunday Mail (January 2, 2000), 7. Smartcards are already used by the USA army where soldiers carry their medical history on a comuterized dogtag. See: www.coh.uq.edu.au at www.health.qld.gov.au/qtn

[5] ibid.

[6] Sausage Part of World Forum, The AustralianIT, (February 8, 2000) 55.

[7] See, for example, Sohail Inayatullah, Eco-bots in you future, The Age (forthcoming, 2000).

[8] See Clement Bezold, Will heart disease be eliminated in your lifetime? The best of health futures, Futures Research Quarterly (Summer 1995) and The Future of Complementary and Alternative approaches in US Health Care. Institute for Alternative Futures, 1998.

[9] Ibid, Clement Bezold, Will heart disease be eliminated in your lifetime?, 30.

[10] See, for example, Mike Hollinshead, Alternative Futures for Health Care in 2018. Available from Facing the Future. 150003, 56 Avenue, Edmonton, AB, T6H 5B2.

[11] See Heather Gilmore, Younger shoppers opt for the Net. The Courier-Mail (February 21, 2000), 6. Gilmore reports that the number of young people on the Net has tripled in the past year in Australia.

[12] See, press releases and reports from, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. http://www.aihw.gov.au/

[13] NOIE, E-commerce Beyond 2000. See, Mark Hollands, Internet dreaing drives dot.com fury, The Australian IT (8 February 2000), 51. Also see www.economist.com for the latest data on the new economy.

[14]See: Celebrated biotechnologist Dr. Leroy Hood addresses attendees, Humanity 3000 News (vol. 2, No. 2, 1999), 1 and 7.

[15] See: http://health.upenn.edu/~bioethic/webget/archives.html

[16] The Sunday Times in the Australian, January 25, 2000, pg. 1.

[17] Bezold, Will heart disease be eliminated in your life time, 38.

[18] See the website: Unbounding the Future: the Nanotechnology Revolution – www.forsight.org see, Robert A. Freitas: Respirocytes – A Mechanical Artificial Red Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology at http://www.foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html

[19] Ibid, www.forsight.org

[20] Yahoo News, Harvard Medical School Study, September 1, 1998.

[21] Ibid.

[22] Maclenan AH, Wilson, DH, Taylor, AW, Prevalence and cost of alternative medicine in Australia, Lancet, 1996, March 2: 347(9001): 569-73

[23] ibid. Also see, Health Harmony, The Sunday Mail (January 2, 2000), 7.

[24] Marie V. Pirotta, March M Cohen, Vicki Kotsirilos and Sstephen J Farish, Complementary therapies: have they become accepted in general practice? MJA 2000; 172: 105-109.

[25] Clement Bezold, Health Care Faces a Dose of Change, The Futurist (April 1999), 30-33.

[26] See: Complementary and alternative medicine: an educational, attitudinal and research

challenge: We need to understand more about these treatments, why they are being used, and what makes them effective. MJA 2000; 172: 102-103

[27] New breed of doctors on the way – www.aihw.gove.au/releases/1998/csams89-96.html. Accessed January 2000.

[28] Beth J. Soldo and Emily M. Agree quoted from the USA Population Reference Bureau’s bulletin, American’s Elderly in Cheryl Russell, American Demographics, March 1989 v11 n3 p2(1).

[29] www.who.org, See, World Health Organization, The Global Burden of Disease, 1996. http://www.who.int/.   See, Caring for Mental Health in the Future. Seminar report commissioned by the Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios. Kluver Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1992, 315. See as well: The Global Movement for Active Ageing. http://www.who.org/ageing/global_movement/index.html.

[30] “To a Queensland Disability Policy and Strategy,” DFFCC, 1997, 12 (Discussion Paper) quoted in Ivana Milojevic, Home and Community Care Services: Generic or Discriminatory, HACC Action Research Project. Report to Catholic Social Response, Auspicing Body, 1999, 35.

[31] See Peter Peterson, Gray Dawn. New York, Random House, 1999.

[32] See Sohail Inayatullah, Ageing Futures: From Overpopulation to World Underpopulation, ” The Australian Business Network Report (Vol. 7, No. 8, October, 1999), 6-10.

[33] www.who.org/hpr/expo/futures11.html. Accessed January 2000. WHO Health Futures – Major trends shaping health.

[34] See www.pophouse.com.au – the work of Rosemary Herceg. See, Future News, GenXers: Quiet Revolutionaries (August, 1999).

[35] See, Sohail Inayatullah,Youth Futures, in Jennifer Gidley and Sohail Inayatullah, Youth Futures. Manuscript in preparation.