SMART – A preferred Vision for Redcliffe-Caboolture (2002)

By Sohail Inayatullah

1.      Background

Over 50 health care professionals met on April 17th at the Redcliffe Convention center to develop a shared vision of the future. The aim of this conference was underpinned by a need to create a single intent that ‘pulled’ multiple realities held by limited stakeholders into one vision that could:

1.      Facilitate growth in community building.

2.      Integrate and align effort towards a common purpose with a beginning towards an integrated planning approach.

3.      Articulate an image of preferred Health Futures.

4.      Create an opportunity to develop relationships and possible partnerships within a common cause.

The driving reason to conduct such a session was due to limited levels of integrated approaches to health planning by health professionals within the Redcliffe and Caboolture Regions but other regions throughout Australia. The intention was that this model of grassroots futures work could become portable, allowing real transformation in health delivery throughout the nation.

2.      Conference Day

The conference day was divided into the following stages.

1.      An opening presentation by Aboriginal Elder Peter Bird. Bird’s His main point was that to develop a shared vision of the future, we must acknowledge how settlement destroyed the health of aboriginal peoples. Creating a future must begin with redressing past grievances.

2.      The first session focused on creating health pasts. The three main trends identified were: (1) less funds available and thus the move from abundance to tough choices; (2) the development of community health and (3) technological advances

3.      A keynote address by Sohail Inayatullah. He made the following points. 1. Creating an integrated framework for health care is foundational necessity given the overwhelming changes to health. Whether it is genomics, cyberhealth, an aging population or  the rise of complementary medicine, traditional delivery systems of health are being dramatically challenged. The economic reality of globalization – more porous nations, privatization – force agencies to do more with less. While daunting this is possible through integrative visions and strategies. Four solutions were provided: coordinate care; smart card; community care; and integrated system.

4.      Sectorial presentations from Ralph Smallhorn (General Practice), John O’Brian (Queensland Health), Jeanette Evans (Blue Care); Darryl Baker (Redcliffe City Council) and, Chantal de Vere (Natural Healing). We briefly summarize their main points.

Ralph Smallhorn made the following points. 1. There are not enough gps (or nurses). 2. We will see an increased number of part time GPs. This is already evident in women GPs. 3. GPs should treat only what others groups cannot. 4. GPs must work with other groups as to create a multi-door integrated scenario of the future.

John O’Brian articulated Queensland Health’s vision for the future. This is:

Health is a lifetime investment, education as consciousness of health choices

both in terms of life style and smart consumer, and health as resource (a healthy population is cheaper to maintain). The main future issue is the transition from health for children to health for the aged.

Darryl Baker developed how the local council is working in the health area. His talk focused on community capacity building, as for example, the local library which has become a core areas of learning and community building.

Jeanette Evans saw health a pivotal investment to our future. While the demand for health for often insatiable and increased aging made health care delivery even more difficult, advances in technology (tele-health, for example) and the possibility of integration offered some hope for the future.

Chantel De Vere pointed out how complementary medicine was leading the way in many areas of health care, and, becoming increasingly respectable. The presented numerous case studies – for example, at Southern Cross University – to illustrate that the walls between traditional and complementary medicine were breaking.

Next were six break-out groups. They were charged with the task of developing a preferred vision. Points of agreement from the disparate groups where developed in a collective visioning session.

3. The Vision

VIRTUAL MULTIDOOR HEALTH/VIRTUAL MULTI PERSONAL LIFE HEALTH PLAN/HEALTH FOR LIFE

S          Seamless Portals

M        Multi-Tier

A         Access

R         Relations and Community Building

T          Trust/Respect/Ethics

The following describes in more detail the vision:

·        Virtual teams

·        Person-based, holism

·        Prevention, early intervention

·        Unique ID number, card system, health points

·        Co-ordinate life style interventions

·        Community Care at the centre/core – person – trust

·        Funding values shift towards wellness model

·        Smart system – interactive – TV

·        Seamless strategic alliances

·        Volunteerism

·        New measurements

·        Smart astute use of current resources

·        Shared doable vision

·        Breaking down barriers

·        Sustainablility

·        Client focused

·        Federal plus local

·        All individuals accountable

·        Multiple entry – suppliers

Some of the social factors necessary for this vision included.

·        Ten year funding cycle

·        From greedy society to community

·        30 hour working week – improved connectedness/health

New indicators were measure movement toward this vision, among them were: no homeless and a comfortable death.

An essential value behind this vision was: trust and respect.

To move toward this vision, it was agreed that a pilot project was necessary.

Further next steps included:

Community Information

·        Involvement

·        Focus groups

·        funding

·        local members, political buy-in

·        Media involvement

These communities needed to be: Physical and Virtual

Potential users/suppliers needed to be assessed as well.

4. Small Groups

What follows are the reports from the small groups. They are the data, information and values from which the group prepared a consensus vision.

1. Red Group: Facilitator Philip Daffara. Vision 2101

Ensure a wholistic continuous lifetime care plan is co-created for each individual, encompassing Prevention, Empowerment and Sustainable well-being

To achieve this Vision we the Redcliffe-Caboolture-Bribie community intend to:

·        Develop a web portal of all health service providers in the District to integrate the sequential delivery of individual (care plan) based services;

·        Build community leadership and Ethics;

·        Promote and provide incentives for the development and maintenance of care plans using credits for preventative actions;

·        Promote and facilitate the switch of restructuring of Federal and State funding and reporting arrangements so that it moves with the Care Plan outcomes.

·        Develop a system and Strategic Plan to measure the “Health” of the community, the effectiveness of Strategic alliances and collaborative partnerships to achieve the vision;

·        Facilitate the planning of future health service needs with Local Governments (Redcliffe, Caboolture and Kilcoy Councils) so that social infrastructure is provided for new developments in accordance with the integrated Planning Act.

·        Habitat needs to sustain community health.

·        Empower Minority and Mainstream communities and provide physical and cultural space and freedom to allow them to improve their own health. Eg Indigenous, Youth, Gay)

·        Promote Life Education at schools and for the disadvantaged to increase the awareness of the benefits if a lifetime Health Care Plan, responsibility for their choices and the benefits of a holistic view.

·        Promote the Investigation of the triple bottom line benefits of introducing a Health Tax or excise on unhealthy products, to increase alternative sources of funds; and investigate the impact of having Private Insurance premium reductions if preventive actions are implemented in an individual’s care plan.

Shared values were:

Innovative, tolerant, sensitive, compassionate, fulfilling, proactive, flexible, Ethical, confidential, equitable, socially just, sustainable, viable, responsive, mentors, sharing, honest, openly communicative, building relationships.

2. Green Group. Facilitator. Eric Dommers. Vision for Redcliffe Caboolture health system in 2012.

Structural

1.      There is alignment of all district service providers (health, education, housing, employment, council etc), and all operate on a 10 year funding cycle.  This enables budgets to be designed with a view to reaping savings/investments from prevention initiatives.  This has enabled local service providers to invest in both inter-organisational integration initiatives, as well as primary prevention initiatives.

2.      Inter-organisational arrangements include Memoranda of Understanding linking various service providers for both ‘population groups’, and whole of population initiatives. All service providers are fully accredited and are also academic institutions conducting professional/vocational preparation and training courses. The focus of these courses is on training service providers to be multi-disciplinary.  Health service providers have agreed on the use of best practice protocols and guidelines for various disease entities.

3.      Primary care is still provided and co-ordinated by GPs.  GP businesses are operated within a range of quasi-corporate structures.  The local community still regards GPs as a first point of access, and no-one in need is denied access (ie. some bulk billing arrangements are still in place).  GPs work with a range of other primary care providers such as “St. Blues” to co-ordinate the care of patients with complex needs.

4.      Structural efficiencies and a concomitant need for flexibility have resulted in a wide range of strategic alliances and amalgamations among health service providers.  The preventive arena has become a market, with payments available for locals who are in danger of falling through the gaps in the safety net. A wide range of service packages is available for at risk/marginalised individuals.

5.      Service information is accessible through various home and community media, and a key social education tool is ‘service literacy’, and ‘health literacy’.

6.  All salaried employees work a maximum 30 hour week. This enables people to have mote quality time with their families, and in supporting their local community.  Volunteering is a strong community theme. The 30 hr working week has also increased the levels of employment, and improved local health, and social connectedness.

Scenario

Mrs. Jones wakes in the morning, and tunes into her health information channel. The monitor bids her good morning, bio-senses her health status, makes a health service appointment with a local GP, and advises her of the time of the appointment with the Mayne-Blue-QUT-Salvos Health Service and tune up centre.

Mrs. Jones’ estranged younger cousin Mary, is homeless, unemployed, and physically and emotionally depressed.  She is identified as ‘at risk’ by the ‘Blue Salvos’ bounty group. Mary is offered a holistic and co-ordinated package of services including temporary shelter, a shower, aromatherapy, ‘quality listening’, a health check, and employment counselling.  The package is paid for by the ‘Upstream Health Investment Fund’, which pays for the services from a ten year ‘prevention contributions levy’ contributed by relevant local service providers on the assumption that there will be a return on their investment through a reduction in Mary’s estimated  future use of acute and emergency services. Mary’s QoL improves dramatically, and she is now working as a volunteer for the local council.

3. Blue Group Facilitator.,  Steve Gould

Stated Vision: ‘Relational Health’

To break down the barriers through community/service provision, education, and sharing by empowering that which leads to seamless care in sustainable health environments.

This vision was based upon descriptive statements of what measures could be observed by participants within their respective health care fields of work and is based upon preliminary descriptors of meaningful outcomes/visions previously mentioned.

Themes

No paper.

High levels of customer satisfaction (both internally and externally).

Acceptance of “stay ins” as a right of choice to remove oneself from the community.

Expedient access and processing of health clients through the medical system by multi team approaches.

Layered assessment of health clients to target interventions based upon primary vs acute care.

Empowered and informed communities to facilitate targeted interventions based upon primary vs acute care.

Provision of alternative options to ‘first choice’ medical interventions other than the GP as the first point of contact.

Removal of barriers to local GPs which prevent locals accessing their preferred GPs.

(This situation was due to long waiting lists.)

Increased access points to multiple health providers within the existing health system by community.

Increased usage of virtual technologies to alleviate demands on health system.

Functional integrated planning for local health community.

Developed partnerships and relationships within the local health community.

Sharing of health clients and information to facilitate expedient service to clients.

Partnered ‘funding generation’ activities.

Care providers as a vehicle of change via communication and braking down the barriers.

Increased opportunities to be involved in future visioning.

Shared values were:

·        Direction or told what to do.

·        Learning

·        Sharing

·        Relationships

·        Purpose

·        Results

·        Influence

4. Facilitator: Ivana Milojević. Preferred Vision for the Future of Redcliffe-Caboolture Health.

Collaborative Care 2020

·        Only two levels of government in Australia: e.g. national (federal) and regional

·        Movement from the greedy society towards giving one. Cultural values are changed: promotion of ‘old-fashion’ values of caring, tolerance, compromise. Sense of community also back.

·        Health system more integrated: ‘share-care’, collaborative approach, collaborative action research planning, teamwork – ‘mobile working teams’ (not necessarily in the same building). Mutual respect and recognition crucial (instead of saying nurses or doctors or allied health practitioners ‘are only good for …’). Everyone’s skills are respected and valued. Also important to accept the limitations of what service providers can offer.

·        Collaboration between ‘mobile working teams’ through improved communication and connection. There is enhanced communication and referral linkages facilitated by unique ID number, client data record (similar to smart cart), owned by client.

·        Client and community are put in the middle – services are planned around them and their needs.

·        Responsibility goes back to people themselves who are in charge of their own health. People are more responsible and accountable for their health. Affordable and timely access to healthy lifestyle is improved. Focus on lifestyle change and promotion of wellness. Focus on education (of children, parents, health workers, community, society).

·        There is an increased focus on prevention across community service providers. Resources are re-distributed – there is a balanced placement of funds on ‘prevention-early intervention-illness-palliative care’ continuum.

·        There is life course approach to health – intervention at transitional milestones (e.g. birth, starting school, adolescence, etc.). Services working together around schools.

Recommendations

·        More funding into community. Community based system.

·        More aged care facility. More appropriate staff, nurses, allied health practitioners, teachers-educators.

·        $ freed by money moving from (1) rearrangement in governance, (2) illness end – prevention saving money in the long term

·        Land development taking into account broader set of issues – e.g. public spaces.

·        Development of healthy food chain stores.

·        High employment rate, reduced gap between rich and poor.

·        Euthanasia debate over – replaced by palliative care [not generally agreed upon]

·        Emergence of a ‘major computer virus’ – re-introduction of traditional games among children, as subjects at school, etc.

5.      Faciltator. Marcus Bussey.

The vision had two dimensions – a wellness building and wellness hug.

The Wellness Building

This definition of wellness as an essential social capital builds a 4 tiered health system that is rooted in consciousness: education for Living.  It progresses through a Community health network of positive relationships; moves to the physical centres of health and healing and has at its summit the Spiritual “I”, that acknowledges that the role of meditation and personal reflection is central to a well being.

This was represented as a pyramid.

The “Wellness Hub”

Represented as a wheel with relationship at the centre.

This idea places relationships at the centre of health, both personal and professional.

A sick person enters the health system through their own chosen modality.  This trusted professional acts as a guide.  She or he may or may not be a GP but they will be able to provide clear pathways through an integrated system that includes home care, library access, meals on wheels, mental health, specialist treatments, etc…

Values Shift

·        Sickness to Health

·        Specialist to Holistic

·        Isolation to Integration

Key Ideas

·        Needs Management for client based on personal relationship

·        Relationships between client and workers

·        Information Management Infrastructure (Computers)

·        Clear Marketing of integrated services

·        Opportunities for self referral

Outcomes

·        Relationships leading to responsiveness to individual needs

·        Wellness Vs Sickness resolved in favour of former

·        Value structures for funding to change

·        Information management – techno + humane

6.      Facilitator: Patricia Kelly

Vision: Client Focused Future

Features

·        One prime level of government

·        Tiered roles addressed staff shortages as professionals are supervising and engaged in educating families.

·        Community and residential services integrated  including transport services – to support well aged

·        A comfortable death -pain free, intervention if required, euthanasia not illegal

·        Health maintenance and prevention of illness means that everyone experiences wellness in all aspects, physical, mental, spiritual, cultural.

·        It is a concerned community, with everyone accountable and responsible

·        No homeless, no pollution

·        Nuclear and extended families

·        Ethical decision making

·        Consensus based on trust. Competition has gone with changed funding

·        Competency testing for over 65s

·        More accountable – accurate, informed choice

o       May not get the choice you want  eg if you are a smoker or a drinker you may  not get access to heart transplant

·        Better focussed

·        Discourse – turn problems into challenges

  • At a personal level only one person stated his preferred life in 2012 but others agreed. The elements were  3 days work, from 10- 4, twice the salary, a healthy person, valued, resourced to meet individual and community needs
Drivers for change:

·        Funding – limited supply

·        Yearning for quality of life

·        Explosion of technology

·        Expansion of knowledge

The Client focussed future was presented as a diagram with a virtual centre at the core.

Coming off this were these elements

1.      client focussed – in all dimensions

2.      trust

a.       professional respect

b.      re-evaluated roles – chosen core business, specialty areas

3.      one bucket of money

a.       shared accountability

b.      local government to take responsibility for health services through negotiating and accountability

4.      community services

a.       minimal duplication

5.      consumer choice

a.       “health points” linked to…

b.      smart card,

c.       better marketed to population … linked to…

6.      information integration and transfer

a.       data bases all linked electronically   so no need for reassessment, hard to lie to system

7.      health maintenance and illness prevention

8.      All These Changes Began With A Pilot Program In 2002/3with the suggestion this might be North Lakes.

Additional information

Trust. Service providers need to be non-territorial and recognise the professionalism of others. This requires trust that has to be built through discussion hence the pilot project. All agreed that competition for limited funds creates much of the current tension between groups.

Integration, Including transport services

An Alternative Scenario to the preferred vision was:

2012 Breakdown Scenario

·        No integration

·        Duplication of infrastructure leading to wastage and inefficiency

·        Under-resourcing

·        Low socio-economic groups leading to  third-world conditions and disasters in multiple areas, including raised suicide rates.

·        Unrepresentative demographics with majority aged

·        Budget cuts leading to equity issues – not enough people to provide services leading to

·        Burn-out

There was consensus that we are currently on this track

Facilitator Comments

1. Ivana Milojević

Comment

General agreement on the first part. ‘Other ideas’ show some contradictions with the general vision or haven’t been more thoroughly explored, or there was some disagreement among participants. E.g. there was a contradiction between ‘more aged care facility’ (promoted by palliative care nurse) and ‘no need for increased funding, instead, redistribution of resources’ as well as ‘more balanced placement of funds’ meaning more resources into prevention and less into ‘end-stage of illness’. Similarly, emergence of a ‘major computer virus’ inconsistent with the development of electronic ID card. Also, some ideas too broad, e.g. high employment rate or reduced gap between rich and poor.

2. Steve Gould

Reflections

Upon assessment of events from Wednesday 17th April 2002, the following questions remain unanswered:

·        Q: How will GPs release themselves from traditions knowledge based hierarchies?

·        Q: How will future policy making impact upon how decisions are made?

·        Q: How will future funding be dispersed and under what criteria?

·        Q: What are the implications for future technologies upon industries that are dependent upon existing health service provisions.

·        Q: How will the shift towards self-diagnosing and self-dispensing technologies impact upon current service deliveries?

·        Q: Who are the future stakeholders?

·        Q: What is the future role of Government entities? Regulation or Socialistic Service provision?

·        Q: Where is the ‘way forward’ manual?

Conflicts to the Vision

Possible barriers to ennobling the preferred Vision are:

·        Loss of power bases.

·        Hoarding of patient knowledge.

·        Impotence of action.

·        Translation into pragmatic languages.

·        Adherence to existing health practices.

·        Espoused rhetoric without behavioral transformation.

·        Limited stakeholder ownership.

Future Implications

Possible implications are:

·        Diffusion of traditional power bases, from GP to allied health practitioners.

·        Equity and access to medical information.

·        Development of ‘redundancy mentality’ within practitioners.

·        De-mystifying the diagnostic processes through knowledge empowerment.

·        Developing the evolution of alternative health intervention choices as acceptable and valid.

·        Growth in litigation behaviours within the community.

Future Actions

To continue with the momentum generated on the vision workshop, it is crucial to follow up quickly with a series of activities to evolve the endorsement of the vision by all stakeholders. This can be achieved by:

1.      Plan a series of workshops to develop ‘ownership’ of the vision. This can be achieved through stakeholder assessment workshops.

2.      Develop a ‘Values Statement’ for the Region to dovetail into the Vision.

3.      Explore preferred scenarios for the Region

4.      Develop a Strategic and Operational plans to enable the ‘operationalisation’ of goals and strategies from the preferred vision.

5.      Develop ‘meaningful measures’ that PULL the desired future and act as feedback loops into future reflection workshops.

3. Patricia Kelly

Comments:

.      The preferred scenario depends on an assumed computer literacy, which seems unlikely for  the majority of this ageing population.

.      Any futures work with any of the groups or in the suggested pilot project would benefit from time to air and discuss concerns and current problems, possibly in separate groups and then coming together with a summary of issues.

.     To do quality futures work the participants may  need  more work with Futures  ideas and concepts.

Epistemes and the Long Term Future (2002)

By Sohail Inayatullah

Forecasts of the future often assume that the larger epistemological context for events and trends are stable. However, taking a macrohistorical perspective – drawn from Johan Galtung’s and Sohail Inayatullah’s, Macrohistory and Macrohistorians and Michel Foucault’s The Order of Things – forecasts themselves are understood by the episteme that shapes them. For example, the likelihood of a particular technological development has a greater or lessor likelihood of occurrence depending on the nature of the episteme – the knowledge boundaries – that is current.

Epistemes are the larger and deeper paradigms of knowledge – reality – that contextualize the boundaries of what can be known. They interact with social, economic, technological and intellectual developments. At the most simple, epistemic history is seen in three stages: ancient (Greek or Roman), medieval (Christian middle ages) and modern (rise of the West), with the postmodern (the collapse of grand narratives) being the next likely stage.  In the Indian context, this is read as ancient (Hindu), medieval (Muslim) and modern (British/nationalism).

Economy and technology

Alternatively, more focused on economy as pivotal, grand thinkers argue for an agricultural, industrial and postindustrial schema, with these categories created by the means of production and the types of work done in each historical stage. This division allows theorists to argue for future stages such as a services age or even an artistic age.  Likewise, Comte and Spencer, whose categories of history and future are those that we live today, gave us primitive, modern and scientific (positivism) as historical stages, with the latter for all practical purposes being the final stage when truth is known, and all that is left to is to implement social and scientific laws.  It is this latter assumption of a unified historical and future framework, an unbroken grand narrative of social evolution, that guides many forecasts – probable, plausible, possible. They do not take into account the possibility of the entire framework of what is we consider nature and truth changing, of the emergence of new nominations of significance, of fundamental discontinuity.  Believing that the future will be data-led – focused only on current dominant drivers (economy or technology), we get logical scenarios based on short-run current understandings.

Alas, if only history and future were so simple. A macrohistorical view shows us quite the opposite, that all attempts to postulate the end of history, or the unending continuation of a particular social formation – whether capitalism or liberalism or modernism or communism or the religious vision of “heaven on earth” – are doomed to fail.

This is partly because the mechanisms of civilizational change are not only exogenous (planet change, asteroids) and endogenous (creativity, drive to dominate, dialectics) but interactive and mysterious, that is, unknown, epistemologically discontinuous.  Seen from this perspective the shape of the future of knowledge comes out quite differently.

Cyclical history and futures

The Indian philosopher P. R. Sarkar is perhaps most instructive. He finds evidence for four stages: worker, warrior, intellectual (priest) and merchant. Each social stage defines what is truth, the natural and the beautiful, more so each stage defines what is of significance. After the merchant stage, the cycle starts over. Thus to forecasts which assert that economic globalization will continue unabated, Sarkar points out that historically all systems exaggerate a particular type of power. Thinking forward 1000 years, we can well imagine the cycle going through many stages, with the current globalization of capital eventually leading to a globalization of labor, which will possibly lead to a more disciplined unified martial society (which will likely expand to outerspace, as martial civilizations tend to do, expand outward, that is). This stage of World Empire will then lead to another era where ideas about God and truth will flourish. Overtime, there will be a decline since intellectual ideals will not be able to deal with other factors of reality, leading to yet another focus on economics and wealth creation.

Sorokin also finds evidence of non-linearity in history. He posits that historical change follows the pattern of the pendulum. Civilizations move backward and forward between ideational societies focused only on the nature of truth to sensate civilizations focused on pleasure and capital accumulation. Each one swings too far, with integrative stages appearing on occasion. Thus, we should expect to see in the next hundred or so years, a swing away from the sensate to the ideational. In a 1000 years, there will be additional swings, a few hundreds year of each.

Emergence and evolution

The main point is that all systems are to some extent patterned and change is intrinsic in them. This is far more complex then the lay view that the decline follows the rise (although certainly there is historical truth to this) since there is novelty, emergence. As Vico wrote hundreds of years ago, the laws of social change are soft, the past never repeats in the same way.

Certainly then there is a role for individuals, for new technologies, for grand social movements, for bifurcation as Ilya Prigogine and other modern scientists have argued. However, is as well, argues Arnold Toynbee, imitation and thus eventual decline. But with all generational decline, a new era can be ushered in by a creative minority.  However, there are not endless possibilities to social structure, to the shape of the new era. There are only a few possible evolutionary structures (at this stage, at least): local, self-reliant culture systems; a new world church (ideational); a new world empire; or the “Wallersteinian” mixture of local polities and a world economy – the capitalist world economy we have today. There are not an endless array of social choices, just as for humans, biology and genetics “determine” the shape of what we are.

As with modern/postmodern thinkers, for grand cyclical historians, novelty too is part of the macroscope of time. For Sarkar and Sorokin, the pattern of history can change through directed leadership, directed social evolution. The cycle of history can be transformed to the spiral, the progressive movement of social evolution toward a more ideal society. However, the basic evolutionary pattern of the cycle – in Sarkar’s theory of worker/martial/intellectual/merchant – cannot change since these are evolutionary, historically developed.  Exploitation and human misery, war and domination can be ended but history does not end, there are always new challenges.

For Sorokin, there are only five ways to answer the question of what is real, what is true. Either the ideational world is truth; the sensate world is truth; both are true; the question is not important; or one can never know. Of the latter two categories, no civilization can be created.  From the former three, we get the ideational, sensate and integrated epochs. Johan Galtung has added the notion of contraction and expansion arguing that civilizations are often in different phases to each other. For example, the West and Islam are in counter-cyclical phases, taking turns being in contraction and expansion modes.  Chinese philosopher Ssu-Ma Chi’en, in contrast, saw history and future less in the context of bifurcation, of transformation, and more in terms of a harmony cycle. When the leader follows the tao, that which is essentially natural, then civilization flourishes, virtue reigns, however, overtime leaders degenerate and move away from learning. Virtue degenerates and harmony disappears.  Eventually, however, a new leader appears, a sage-king, and equilibrium is restored. The future then for Ssu-ma Chi’en can best be understand by examining how closely leadership is virtuous.

There are thus structural limitations as to what is possible, there are historical evolutionary patterns. But what is crucial of this discussion is that it is not just new technologies or human creativity that will create the future, but that these stages are the larger epistemes which define what is the true, the good and the beautiful, that frames how we think about the future. Epistemes do change – great humans create new discourses that change the nature of what it is to be; new technologies transform the nature of reality; and grand natural events as well change reality.   Thus, while macrohistorians give us patterns which will structure the future of society, these structures evolve interactively with the new (and many times the “new” is merely ephemeral, an old form that looks different because the epistemic basis of intelligibility, of recognition have changed).

Contextualizing factors

Often, however, we investigate the latter, and not the former, creating realities, that while interesting, do not give us insight into the mechanisms of past and future, since they do not account for the grant structures in history – the patterns of social and civilizational change. The factors analysed are done so from a short term data-heavy perspective, forgetting the overall episteme that shapes what constitutes data.  Instead of breaking new ground into the long-term factors impacting the future, forecasts merely restate the current politics of reality. While they assume that there will be fantastic new technologies or events they hold stable the foundational nature of reality, not contesting the epistemological and civilizational basis of political, economics and society.

However, by focusing on episteme we can gain a sense of what will be the overall paradigm of what it means to be human. The future nature of epistemes thus becomes a factor that interacts with forecasts of new technologies (external nature-domination or internal self-domination, for example), new movements, and new societies.

The best tack then is to develop a complex knowledge base of the future that is data, value and episteme oriented, that is thus inclusive of structure and agency, at individual, national, civilizational and planetary levels.

Virtual and Genetic Challenges to Green Politics and Planning (2002)

Is sustainability possible in a world of cloned cats, animals and rights of robots?

By Sohail Inayatullah

Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan; Sunshine Coast University, Sippy Downs.

Based on a keynote speech presented to the Environmental Institute of Australia, Brisbane, August 2, 2002.

Clearly, few of you in the room have a virtual cat or an animat and I doubt if you spend your nights thinking about the rights of robots. I am not here to argue that you should but rather here to consider the futures of environmental management in the context of different futures. Among these futures is one where the nature of nature will dramatically change, wherein cloned cats and animats will become the norm not the wild-edge of weird science.

Without a doubt, traditional notions of the environment are undergoing dramatic changes – from nature to the built environment to a world where the notion of nature and technology is blurring. What this means for the environmental manager is that their workload will increase and become dramatically more complex. This is a deepening, but also an expansion in the sense that an environmental managers will need to consider issues not just of the environmental impact of new urban development but technological issues as well. What this also means is that there will be new entrants into the market, focused on specific issues concerned with the new technologies – the likely impacts of germ line enginneering or, less grand, that of the surveillance mosquito just now being developed, or of the rights of robots.

First some methodological notes on determining the nature of possible change.
There are three relevant methods. First is the s-curve. The goal here is to discern emerging changes (not just trends), to anticipate them before they become dominant.

Second is the futures triangle. That is, along with competing images of the future (artificial-spaceship/gaian/realistic) there are other forces exerting pressure on the future: pushes (technologies, values shifts and globalization, for example) and the weight of history – that which is difficult to change. : power, bureaucracies, politics, the right way of doing things. As my son said, in response to a TV show on the 14 ways to make a baby, “when I grow up, I want to do it the proper way”. Unfortunately, for him and other dot.com children, when the time comes for ‘making’ children,, their kids will be of the double-helix variety, and there will be no ‘proper way’ at all. Nature will have become created by man.

Of course, one can get forecasts wrong. : Bill Gates once said, 64k is enough memory for anyone. And, forecasts can gather dust. For example, the World Trade Center twice hired security expert Charlie Schnabolk to consider if terrorism was a threat to their building. Scenarios were developed – predictable (bomb threats); probable (bombing attempts) and catastrophic (aerial bombing). Later, in 2000, he argued that the greatest threat was from “ “someone flying an airplane into a building”.”

Futures thinking must be living.

But there is another lesson here. And this is that: strategies to counter risk can never be only technical – a better firewall, more security systems, better impact statements – they also must include an understanding of the system that creates risk as well, and the paradigms that uphold those systems.

Now, I do not think your work is that different from that of a futurist. You must consider the implications of current policies, into the immediate, medium term and long term future. You must assess risk, manage risk and most importantly, communicate risk. The last part is the key: since we live in different worlds, we have different perspectives of what futures we desire. And we are no longer a united.

Challenges to the Future

Multiculturalism challenges the traditional view of ‘we’ as one race in one nation under one god.

Feminism challenges the gendered nature of the ‘we’ – we as male.
Postmodernism challenges the view that the ‘we’ always was and always will be.

Virtualism challenges the ‘we’ seeing communities not physical, but as intended and virtual – the cyber friends.

Genetics challenges the we at an even deeper level – we can now become who we want to be. As we learn, in Blade Runner when the genetic engineer is asked what he does and he replies: I make friends”  he means, ‘manufacture’ friends. Thus, the stable evolutionary nature of us is being contested.

Of course, perhaps ‘I shop therefore I am’, or god, nation and family will live on forever. And perhaps not.

Cats are being cloned, and animals created. Artificial agents are swiftly becoming or will become part of our lives, creating routines that mimic our tastes, thus reducing the burden of choice.

With eco-bots and health-bots we will have immediate information about our desires. We will be able to make better choices knowing the full value chain – who made what profit, where something was made and its ecological footprint.
Health bots will alert us to the dangers of foods – too much cholesteral, too much fat. They will also be tailored, learning from us, focused on our changing needs. Of course, we may prefer to turn off the health-bot, but will the state let us?.  Won’t that be the way to reduce health costs – the big brother that is always ‘on’, ensuring we stay healthy and reduce public expenditures. And, there is always the surveillance mosquito in case you try and take off the bot.

While we may resist, dot.com and double helix kids will jump at this, and even the current generation prefers to change capitalism buy buying their desired futures. Witness drops in  Shell and Monsonato stocks.

But, over time, these artificial intelligence bots will gain rights, not because of anything inherent in their essence, but because they will part of the air we breathe. Indeed, with the advancement of functional foods and nutraceuticals (smart foods), they will be part of the food we eat.

It is certainly a new world we are entering. One may call this ‘the future of artificial societies’, but it is one in which we will no longer distinguish the artificial from the natural. It is a world of nano-technologies, super cities, world governance – the main questions will be not only “Do androids dream of electronic sheep?”, but “What do humans do?”.

Clearly the impact on the environment will be enormous. However, the nature of the environment is likely to change, manifested in a variety of ways. : far more fluid and flexible. In much of the traditional environment, lost species are likely to be recreated either genetically or virtually. The zoo will change dramatically, once again becoming central to the city. Indeed, one can easily imagine three Olympics – a drug free one, a doped up one, and then the gene enhanced one.

The impact of these new environments on how we think and, how we know the world will become major issues. As we move to germ line intervention and create novel new forms of life, again, the issue of how new life forms impact traditional notions of the environment will be of concern. However, with the environment in flux, the issue of preserving or protecting our past will be far less of an issue. The issue will be ensuring that the new environments we are creating are managed within agreed upon terms.

The terms for this future world are yet to be created. Certainly, doing no harm is likely to be one of them, that is, Asimov’s laws of robotics – not harming humans. But over time, humans will be just one of the many thinking beings on this planet.

Gaia

The other competing future is that of sustainability – a commitment to future generations; policies that are soft on the earth (taking into account our ecological footprints). This is, essentially the triple bottom line approach but writ large on the global level. Education in this future would not be about the environment but for the environment. Indeed, over time it will be in interaction with the environment – Gaia becoming alive.

In one survey of preferred city futures, only 1% preferred the city as suburb image. Sustainable development and the living city (sensing us and mothering us) was the future preferred by the others.

For environmental managers, this means not only an increased amount of work, but enhanced work routines and expanded responsibilities. Environmental management would move to include issues of social justice-multicultural-gender balance and not just development.  The environmental manager would become the triple bottom line manager.

However, with sustainable development becoming THE paradigm, environmental management may disappear as a field (becoming so successful that it becomes routinized) or become flush with entrants that are low on expertise and experience.

There are two factors. One, : problems with capitalism. That is, it capitalism can grow wealth but distribution and impact on the earth remain quandaries. The second is a values shift, the rise of the cultural creatives – a new demographic group focused on gender partnership, spiritual values, ecological pluralism and planetary governance and consciousness.

Either the system will transform, moving away from capitalism,  in a dramatic transition, or, most likely, it will move softly away – using the law, procedures and institutions to regulate a softer society.

Business as Usual

The third possibility is Business as Usual but with enhanced technology and a bit of sustainability and perhaps some international agreements in the form of treaties (carbon trading etc.) thrown in.

This is the Bush-Howard worldview. Images come and go, but at the end of the day it is power and money, narrow self-interests, and conservative family values that will rule the day. Nature is fine … but cars are better.

Sustainability is used by businesses as a competitive advantage and nations claim they are pro-environment but developers still win the day.

Education in this future is about the environment with no recognition of Gaia. Gaian alternatives stay on the margin. New technologies are merely used to increase efficiency and not to increase participation of stakeholders through, for example, cyber-democracy. The Business as Usual scenario is the one where markets come first, with environmental problems worsening and no one responsible to fix them.

Conclusion

Thus, there are three scenarios:

1. Continued growth (business as usual) but add a bit of sustainability – environmental management but no real gain in consciousness. No real change in the nature of us.

2. A dramatic change in humanity as we, in one generation, redo a few millions years of evolution. The eighth day of evolution creating new “‘we”’s.

3. A third response is the Gaian – deep foundational spritual change for sustainable development at a planetary level, creating a united planet moving inward and outward, softly.

And of course, there is a fourth response – collapse. Asteroids, volcanos, sea-level rise …

SCENARIOS

Continued Growth – business as usual and more

Artifical Transformation – the eighth day of evolution

Gaian transformation – sustainability for all

Collapse – end time

Final Questions

Which future is likely to come about?. At this stage it is difficult to tell. The weight of history suggests Business as Usual. However, this assumes a linear pattern of history. Those who lost millions in the dot. com collapse know that reality is also cyclical. What goes up, goes down. The more successful you are, the less you can see the warning signs. Success is the final step on the ladder of failure. As Cisco learned, having the best real time forecasting system means nothing if the assumptions in that system are wrong. So business as usual may continue, but as Jack Welch of GE suggests, you better face the brutal facts.

Among those brutal facts: , 3 individuals have the same total wealth as the 48 least developed nations. ; 256 have the same total wealth as half the world’s population. The amount American and Europe spend on perfume and pet food could take care of the basic needs of the entire planet.

Dot.com wizards did not face the facts. Will the Business as Usual gang. ¿ If not, perhaps they will achieve the same end as the Chinese ‘gang of four’.
Technological innovation suggests that the Artificial society is likely to dominate. : a global-tech world. But to do so, issues not only of the fundamentalism throughout the world but the proper traditional ways of operating will remains. We are perhaps not ready to push into outer space, changing our genetic nature many times in one life, designing children to up their IQ, –the real smart state.

What is likely is that with this resistance, a mix of cyber-gene-green futures may eventuate.

As much as the Gaian image of sustainable development and the living earth moves the hearts of many, the feet stay put. As one department of transport suggested, everyone wants green and public transport, but no one wants to travel on it.

And, if the collapse does come – asteroids and ice ages,  – we will need the technology to  leave this planet – I know we can leave spiritually but some of us still like our bodies.

Thus, we really don’t know which future will arrive. We do know the future that does come about will be a result of a mix of the pull, push and weight. We also know that civilizations prosper when they have a positive vision of the future and the belief that it can be achieved. But for the vision to actually move us forward, it will need to be inclusive, gender- friendly, soft on the earth, concerned for basic needs, but innovative as well – above all, it will need to be planetary.

All of us.

Islamic Civilization in Transition (2002)

Sohail Inayatullah

Abstract:

Islam can be seen as a counter discourse to globalization, to the expansion of economic space and the fulfillment of the dreams of the social darwinists. However, even as Islam attempts to create new possibilities for globalism, national politics doom it to a politics of reaction, of reducing diversity and innovation. This is especially perilous as the next phase of globalisation promises to end historical notions of reality, truth, nature and sovereignty. In this dramatically changed world, Islam can join with other counter discourses to create a moral vision of a planetary society, an alternative vision and reality of globalization.

Countering Globalization:

At one level, Islam can be seen as a counter-globalisation[1] in that globalisation – at least in its dominant face – is essentially about expanding the economic circle in our lives at the expense of the social, the spiritual and the cultural. It is the expansion of the world capitalist economy into every sphere of our lives. It is also the continuation of social darwinism, that the fittest – the most entrepreneurial – should lead the world. Finally, globalism continues the ideal of progress, of creating the perfect society, the positivist/scientific world, of forever removing religion and irrationality from human history. The latest technology that promises to deliver this future is germ-line engineering, creating a world of flawless human beings. But in whose image of perfection will these individuals be created in? Certainly not Islamic notions of the good, rather, they will continue in technocratic and western definitions of health, beauty and intelligence.

In this move to hyper-globalization, the Islamic world stands both as an imagined past – feudal, low-tech – but also as a civilization based on an alternative distinction between the public and the private, between individual space and collective space and between the secular and the religious.

However, globalization – if we ask not what is globalization but which globalization – along with the globalization of economy and the globalization of technology (its acceleration) also consists of: (1) the globalization of awareness of the human condition (of hope and fear); (2) the globalization of responses to market and state domination (the emergent global civil society of transnational organizations); (3) the globalization of governance (both below and above); (4) and, finally globalization is both the expansion of time (creating a discourse of the long term future) and its elimination (creating the immediacy of space).

In this more exhaustive definition of globalization, where stands Islam? Islam in these globalized worlds, defined more eclectically, is first about an alternative to the Western project, that is, a promise of a more spiritual society based on a the unity of thought, of an alternative epistemology, an alternative notion of science and political economy.

Islamic Paradigm:

Generally this alternative paradigm as articulated by various Muslim writers consists of the following:[2]

There are ten such concepts, four standing alone and three opposing pairs. Tawheed (unity), Khalifah (trusteeship), ibadah (worship), ilm (knowledge), halal (praiseworthy) and haram (blameworthy), adl (social justice) and zulm (tyranny) and istislah (public interest) and dhiya (waste).

Tawheed articulates the larger Islamic unity of thought, action and value across humanity, persons, nature and God. Khalifah asserts that it is God who has ownership of the Earth. Humans function in a stewardship, trustee capacity, taking care of the Earth, not damaging it. The goal of the Islamic worldview is adl, social justice, and it is based on the larger needs of the people, istislah. To reach these goals, ibadah, worship or contemplation is a beginning and necessary step. From deep reflection, inner and outer observation, ilm or knowledge of self, other and nature will result. One’s action then are halal, praiseworthy and not haram, blameworthy. Moreover with this framework, dhiya (waste) of individual and collective potentials is avoided as is zulm, tyranny, the power of a few, or one, over many, or the power of a narrow ideology over the unity within plurality that the Islamic paradigm advocates. The science that emerges from it is not reducationist objective but synthethic and values based, focused on an emotional commitment to understanding Allah’s world.

While the above presents an alternative paradigm of Islam, it is the vision of an ummah, a global community of believers and non-believers that defines this alternative globalism. At heart, Islam desires to reintegrate the individual as part of the natural order. While Western civilization has come to life in long drawn out battles against the tyranny of royality (from the Magna Carta to the Glorious English Revolution) for muslims it has been the most recent battles againt colonialism and imperialism that has unleashed a humanistic spirit. The vision of the ummah, writes jailed muslim leader, Anwar Ibrahim, “must be able to transcend cultural specificity [and] inhabit the realm of universal ideas.”[3]

This means that the vision of the Ummah must draw on the cultural resources from Islamic history using them to engage with other civilizations through inclusive dialogue. However, the universal must be stated within evolutionary terms, as part of the human unfolding drama.

But behind this idealism lies the current reality of an Islam, that while dramatically increasing in numbers, is decreasing in conceptual unity,[4] decreasing in its viability to create a new politics and economics, indeed, culture, that is, while muslims trust in Allah, they are not doing enough to tie their camel – to become culturally and technologically innovative.

Writes muslim scholar, Munawar Anees: [5]

Perpetuation of despotic rulers, such as Mahathir in Malaysia, is achieved through a systematic corruption of the civil, judicial and the police departments. The invertebrate state-controlled media serve the self-fulfilling prophecy while anti-Semitic slander with sham retractions is not uncommon for sleazy political gains. Greedy multinationals and the Western corridors of power are clearly reprehensible for propping up these client regimes as their economic and political mercenaries.

Given the intellectual bondage and political and economic subservience of the Muslim world to the West, prospects for the future, either programmed or desired, remain gloomy. There seems to be an inexplicable fatalism that continues to envelope the Ummah – the global Muslim community. It has ceased moving from opinion to knowledge. And employing knowledge for social evolution. In the footsteps of the Prophetic Tradition – beside trust in the Divine mercy – are not Muslims required to tie up their camel?

Can muslims, asks Zia Sardar, recover the dynamic principle of ijtihad – sustained and reasoned struggle for innovation and adjusting to change – that has been neglected and forgotten for centuries? [6] Can Islamic civilization avoid the future being programmed by globalization and create an alternative modernity, that is, not destroy tradition but adopt it critically, challenging feudalism and patriarchy and authoritarian knowledge politics, and creating a world, modern, but different from the West?

The possibilities are mixed. With the ascension of the West, muslims have internally adopted the Orientalist codes, seeing themselves not through their own historical eyes – gaze – but through the lenses of Western categories. What results then are imitations of the West, instead of multiculturalism or anti-West rhetoric for local power politics. The strength of globalization in terms of shaping the world economy as well as world culture – the politics of idea production, how Hollywood movies shape world notions of self – do not bode well for other cultures (except in exoticized or museumized forms).[7]

Technology transforming modernity:

But as we venture into the future, globalization is not just about expanding economy and technology as well as the dialectical responses of civil society and reflexive awareness but also about dramatic changes in the nature of reality (through virtualization) in truth (through challenges from postmodernism and multiculturalism) in the nature of nature (from genetics particularly germline engineering as well as from feminist/poststructural thought) as well as sovereignty (making the self and the nation-state far more porous than the legacies industrialism has given us). Within these frames can we still imagine not just a vital Islam but any Islam? Or is Islam likely to be left behind by .com fever and the new economy (virtualization), by genomics (the end of the natural), by the relativization of newtonian stability and globalized economics (and international organizations and corporations spearheading the end of ideology)?

Virtualization will challenge all religions as it contests historical definitions of reality. Computer games are already a larger revenue industry than films and the trends are that this will keep on increasing. But there are significant problems ahead. First, virtualization leads to social isolation, which leads to depression, which already in 1990 accounts for five of the ten leading causes of disability. Psychiatric conditions are expected to play an even greater role in the global burden of disease in the future, becoming in 2020 the leading cause of the loss of life years. [8] Virtualization is likely to further fragment the western self, creating the desolation of postmodern anomie.[9] The lack of access to the Net may prove not as disastrous as it appears now – communication, and not merely solitary information transfer – will remain important in the Islamic world. This relates to the second problem. Virtualization further weakens social ties, community (even as new net communities are created). Again, for the Islamic world, with less net access, this may prove a boon. However, as the Islamic world opens up to the net, we should expect individualization. The personal computer revolution may also create spaces for software that reduces the interpretive authority of mulllahs. For example, by placing the Quran on cdrom, direct access to interpretation will be possible. This expansion of knowledge democracy could be one factor in challenging the dominating feudal structures in the Islamic world. It could also help create an alternative cyberculture, modern, but differently so from the hegemonic West. This alternative culture would be one that allows group experience of virtuality, thus creating new realities, innovation without the loss of the family orientation of Islamic culture.

For the Islamic world, the challenge will be to – as with the adoption of all non-indigenous technologies – to appropriate and use ICTS and their future developments (web-bots, the always-on, wearable computers) without being used by them, that is, to use the net to unleash local innovation without succumbing to the dark side of cyber futures.[10]

But a greater challenge than virtuality will be the end of the natural through developments in genetics. Cloning, gene therapy and germline engineering all contest evolutionary views of what is natural – that is, humans preselecting genetic dispositions, characteristics. The slippery slope from genetic prevention (reducing the probability of developing certain diseases) to genetic enhancement (height, “intelligence”) to new species creation will be quick and almost unstoppable within current globalized and technocratic science. While this will challenge all religions, religions of the book, derived from stories of Adam and Eve will be especially made problematic. Buddhist and other Indian perspectives with far more liminal views of self, will find negotiating an artificial world far easier. The works of Indian philosopher P.R. Sarkar are especially instructive in developing a spiritual perspective of new technologies.[11]

The muslim view of gene therapy is generally best described by Munawar Anees and Abdulaziz Sachedina: Anees writes:[12] gene therapy (not to mention cloning) transgresses everything that Islam is about, about what is natural and what is wrong.

Adds Sachedina: [13]

In Islamic discussions in eugenics, there is almost a consensus among Muslim scholars that it “having better rather than worse genes” does not play a part in the recognition of the good qualities of human beings; it is something that is designed by God, and therefore, it should be left to God, so there is no incentive for the improvement of the genetic composition of individuals to increase the value of that individual. Rather, the value of the individual depends on faith. …

… There is no encouragement of any kind to improve genetic composition through any kind of surgical or any kind of medical or choices to the marriage decisions; rather, the will of God is regarded as the one that really creates human beings the way there are, and there are potential improvements within that if faith is maintained, if moral and spiritual awareness are maintained within the life.

These new technologies pose the most dramatic problems for those who consider the natural as fixed instead of as constantly changing and in the process of recreation. Strict traditionalists (those who do not take a dynamic view of knowledge, wherein ijtihad (reasoned judgement) gives way to taqlid (blind imitation), in particular, will find the next twenty or thirty years the best and worst times. The best because the forces of tradition will flock to them; worst because the technological imperative and humanity’s struggle to constantly recreate itself and thus nature will not be easily forced back. For the Islamic world to survive, it will not only need to debate these technological developments but articulate an alternative science.

For religions in general, there are three possibilities.[14] First is the return to an imagined past with strong feudal and male structures, identity defined by in-group exclusive bonding. Second is to adapt to the future by seeing the past as metaphor, as a story to ethically guide oneself. The latter may become far too fluid for most leaders, however, over time, a new layered religious framework may develop, that is, integration at a different level. For individuals, too, a similar choice remains: return to an integrated but exclusivist self or create a liminal constantly changing self. This postmodern self, the salad bar theory of pluralism, may lead to total fragmentation or alternatively may, as Sarkar argues, create a layered, neo-humanistic self that moves beyond ego (my way is the only way), family (concern for only my future generations), geo-sentiment (my land, territory), socio-sentiment (my religion or race) as well as humanistic sentiment (humans above all), that is, a dynamic, layered inclusive self with incorporates other humans as well as plants and animals. A neo-humanistic self thus moves through the traumas of ego, territorial nationalism, exclusivist religion, racism as well as speciesism entering the universalistic transcendental.

Sovereignty:

Combined with virtualization and geneticization is breakdown of sovereignty. While the passport office remains threatening, capital is now free to roam, as is pollution. Governance too has moved to world levels with the institutionalization of world organizations around activities of health, climate, economy, refugees, to name a few. However, while capital and state have expanded, the peoples sector has challenged its domination. Non-governmental organizations have been quick to pick up the slack when transnationals refuse to observe triple bottom line accounting measures (profit plus social responsibility plus environment). The internet too has challenged national sovereignty with cyberlobbying quickly becoming a new form of local/globalist politics, forcing states to be far more transparent than they would like to be. Governments that have resisted this have found themselves losing propaganda wars. Still, the revolution from the past – of feudalism, of control and command structures, as practiced by many nations claiming themselves to be Islamic – have not disappeared. Indeed, while individuals may have transcended geo- and socio-traumas, nations use these traumas to shore up identity.

SCENARIOS

What then of the future. What futures will these transformations lead to? Four scenarios are probable.

Artificial Society:

The first is the artificial society where the victory of liberal ideology, the science and technology revolution make states far less potent. Islam as currently constituted would not play a role in this future, nor would most nations. It would remain a fast growing religion but only in terms of population and not in terms of defining the agenda for the next century. The population of believers would be poor and angry, searching for someone to blame. Local leaders would be quite willing to play the extremist card convincing believers that by returning to the past, they would be safe from globalization. The losers would be the most vulnerable – women and minorities as well as modernist muslims.

However, there will be plenty of the poor to draw on to challenge the system.

Writes Lydia Krueger:[15]

While the income gap between the fifth of the world’s people living in the richest countries and the fifth in the poorest was 60 to 1 in 1990, up from 30 to 1 in 1960, it has risen to 74 to 1 in 1997. The same development of global polarization can be described looking at wealth and poverty in a different way: While there are still 840 million people malnourished and 2.6 billion people have no access to basic sanitation, the world’s 200 richest people more than doubled their net worth in the four years to 1998, to more than $1 trillion – with the assets of the top three billionaires alone surpassing the combined GNP of all Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and their 600 million people.

Is this likely to change?

In 1993 just 10 countries accounted for 84 percent of global research and development expenditures and controlled 95 percent of the US patents of the past two decades. The dye is set, technocracy will further create a divided world, with the right to the net and the right to genetic therapy and modification becoming the battle cry of the next decades.

Setting up walls against technology will be the easiest path for Islamic nations. Far more useful would be to develop technologies based on Islamic science – that is science and technology focused on problems in poorer areas as well as science and technology that was nature-based, what has been called nature-oriented technologies.

Dialogue of Civilizations:

But instead of the artificial society, there are moves for a pluralistic dialogue of civilizations. Not a clash (as this merely transposes realistic politics on civilizational theory) but a deep dialogue of ways of knowing, of understanding that we can longer export our problems to other, be they weaker nations or the environment. This holistic view of the world challenges realist notions of power and examines the future from the margins, from new models of organizational cooperation (as with Net companies that are far less patriarchal and hierarchical). An enlightened Islam that instead of projecting its own defeats on the West and instead finding compassion for all human suffering can provide a model of this alternative future.

What this means is the creation of a world community around shared ideals. In postmodernity’s decentring of the world, space has been created for civilizations to articulate their own self-images. Of course, the framework remains Western and secular but the multicultural ethos now even challenges postmodernism .

For the Islamic world, what in detail would such a future look like, mean?

Ummah as an Interpretive Community – a preferred future

First, Ummah as an operating framework for the future challenges the three world thinking of first, second and third worlds.[16] As a concept it means three things: (1) The Ummah is a dynamic concept, reinterpreting the past, meeting new challenges and (2) the Ummah must meet global problems such as the environmental problem. “The Ummah as a community is required to acknowledge moral and practical responsibility for the Earth as a Trust and its members are trustees answerable for the condition of the Earth. This makes ecological concerns a vital element in our thinking and action, a prime arena where we must actively engage in changing things.” [17] (3) The Ummah should be seen a critical tool, as a process of reasoning itself

To create a future based on the Ummah equity and justice are prerequisites. This means a commitment to eradicating poverty. It means going beyond the development debate since development theory merely frames the issue in apolitical, acritical language.

This means rethinking trade, developing south-south trade as well as “new instruments of financial accounting and transacting … and the financing of new routes and transportation infrastructure.”[18] But perhaps most significant is a commitment to literacy for all. As Ibrahim writes: “Only with access to appropriate education can Ummah consciousness take room and make possible the Ummah of tomorrow as a personification of the pristine morality of Islamic endowed with creative, constructive, critical thought.”[19]

Thus what is called for is not modernism but a critical and open traditionalism that uses the historic past to create a bright future – a post-asian and postwestern dream. But Ummah should not become an imperialistic concept rather it requires that Muslims work with other civilizations in dialogue to find agreed upon principles. We need to recover that historically the Ummah meant models of multi-racial, multi-cultural, multi-religious, and pluralist societies. A true Ummah respects the rights of non-Muslims as with the original Medina state.

However, as possible is a future without any name, a future of Islam but no muslims, that is, a future with continued struggles between factions in the Islamic world and between sects with the West continuing its millennium struggle against its projected other. A bright future is possible but not certain.

What will the West do?

While the idealist vision of an alternative more pluralistic softer Islam remain, one that is future-oriented, ecological, community-based, gender equal and electronically-linked, we are struck with not an attempt to imagine a new politics for the Islamic world but to offer imagined histories. Moreover, attempts to create alternatives remain mired in strategic politics as with the Iranian revolution – in fighting for survival space – or with creating a fortress to stop globalism as with the Taliban.

But dramatic changes in the nature of reality, truth, nature and sovereignty bode not well for the West as well. Indeed, if we add the dramatically ageing population to this mix, the future of the rich nations is in peril. With an entire age-cohort of youth workers not available – with the median age moving from 20 to 40 and the ratio of worker to retiree slipping from 3-1 to 1.5, what will the West do?[20] It can dramatically enhance productivity thus eliminating the need for labour and immigration or it can create new species of humans, or at least through eugenics ensure its own genetic stock through eugenics. The seeds of eugenics are not outside of Western history but squarely with Darwin. “We civilised men to our utmost to check the process of elimination; we build asylums for the imbecile, the maimed and sick; we institute poor laws; an our medical men exert their utmost skills to save the life of http://aic.org.uk/viagra-generic/ everyone to the last moment. Thus the weak members of civilised societies propagate their kind. No-one … will doubt that this must be highly injurious to the race of man,” wrote Darwin. [21] The relaxation of natural selection was leading to genetic deterioration, to a large number of children of the “scum.”[22]

Alternatively it can allow the other into its shores and create multicultural societies. But authentic multiculturalism challenges the sovereignty of the nation-state at its roots, as does globalization. Once in, there is no way back. Globalization thus sows its seeds for a planetary society, or a return to brutal tribalism.

At heart then the issue is not merely the future of the Islamic world but the future of the entire world. Can we move to a gaia of civilization, an interpenetrating dialogue of traditions where the damage of five hundred years of the victory of the West is undone and the ways of knowing suppressed to achieve hypermodernity are tamed?

Can we create a postwestern view of the future? At the very least to do so, we will need to imagine a future that integrate ideational and sensate civilizations; integrates linear notions of progress with cyclical notions of time; integrates economic growth with distribution; imagines identity not only in the postmodern sense of fluid selves but in a layered neo-humanistic sense where identity moves from the most concrete to the most expansive and subtle.

Does humanity have the wherewithall to do so? The signs are mixed. Just as the expansion of human rights continue, the battle of local and national leaders to hold on to privilege strengthens. Nationalism becomes a method of reducing some of the excesses of globalization but it does so at an incredible cost, creating a politics of identity that is generally culturally violent.

The dream of a good society, a postnational world, has not gone away, however. Globalism pushes back moral space but it does not vanquish it. The hope of Islam –in dialogue with other civilizations – its offering to the future, is essentially about that, asking what is the right future for us, how can we make sure to include the ethical in all our decisions, in our magical ride to the stars, to cloning, to creating a global governance structure. In this sense the hope of Islam is the creation of a global ecumene that transcends any particular religious framework, that opens up the possibility of a more just society.

From a realist view, this is impossible, the interests of the powerful will always overwhelm those of the weak. Battles within religions, between strong and soft, are far more important than a dialogue of civilizations.[23] Even if a new world system develops, it is likely to be Western-based, technocratic, and based on notions that only will only appear sensible to the West. The rich will take flight in their genetically created fool proof bodies, the rest will die tortuous deaths on a planet in environmental crisis.

Still, without a vision of the future, we decline – we do not battle slavery, we acquiesce to injustice. The vision pulls us forward, ennobles and enables us. It calls out the best of us. Muslims have had glorious periods in human history, these can be recovered and used to move onward.

In a workshop with leading Islamic scholars, activists and technocrats, muslims called for a vision of the future with five key attributes.[24]

· self-reliant ecological communities

· electronically linked khalifa, politically linked

· gender partnership – full participation of females

· an alternative non-capitalist economics that takes into account the environment and the poor

· the ummah as world community as guiding principle based on tolerance

· leadership that embodies both technical and moral knowledge

These points may or may not come about. The structures of oppression, the weight of history pulls us away from our desired futures. But our desires gives us agency. The future can be door into an alternative world. If we take this door, then the policy and implementation question comes back but framed as: how can we make the moral the rational, the easier path?

If we don’t, we should take heed from this warning:

Isn’t it here that you take a half step wrong and wake up a thousand miles astray.[25]


 

References

[1] Indeed, given the fear of Islam in the West, “competing globalization” may be a far better term.

[2] Muslim scientists at the Stockholm Seminar in 1981 identified a set of fundamental concepts which define the Islamic paradigm. See Ziauddin Sardar, Islamic Science: the Way Ahead (booklet). Islamabad, OIC/COMSTECH, 1995, 39.

[3] Anwar Ibrahim, The Asian Renaissance. Singapore, Time Books, 1996. Quoted in Sohail Inayatullah, “A Dialogue of Civilizations,” New Renaissance (Vol. 7, No. 3, issue 22, 1997), 39.

[4] Not to mention the numerous failed Islamic revolutions of late. The causes are, of course, a mixed. They include, the constrainted placed by the Western globalist system but as well Islamic nations location within patriarchal and feudal social systems.

[5] See Munawar Anees, The Future of Islam: Tie Up Your Camel. Journal of Futures Studies (May, 2000).

[6] See Zia Sardar, “Asian Cultures: Between Programmed and Desired Futures,” in Eleonora Masini and Yogesh Atal, eds. The Futures of Asian Cultures. Bangkok, Unesco, 1993. 52.

[7] The movie Aladdin is one example. Aladdin, meaning the servant of god, by the end of the movie rediscovers himself as “just al.” This, of course, represents the secularization of Islam, its defeat in shaping world epistemic space. The movie could have been an attempt at a dialogue of cultures but instead it, as expected, commodified and cannibalized.

[8] www.who.org, See, World Health Organization, The Global Burden of Disease, 1996. http://www.who.int/. See, Caring for Mental Health in the Future. Seminar report commissioned by the Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios. Kluver Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1992, 315. See as well: The Global Movement for Active Ageing. http://www.who.org/ageing/global_movement/index.html.

[9] See Zia Sardar Postmodernism and the Other: The New Imperialism of Western Culture. London. Pluto, 1998. Also see, Sohail Inayatullah, “Deconstructing the Year 2000,” Futures ( Vol. 32, 2000), 7-15.

[10] For more on this, see, Levi Obijiofor, Sohail Inayatullah with Tony Stevenson, “Impact Of New Information And Communication Technologies (Icts) On Socioeconomic And Educational Development Of Africa And The Asia-Pacific.” Report to the Director-General, Unesco. Paris, 1999. Also see, Zia Sardar and Jerome Ravetz, Cyberfutures. London, Pluto Press, 1996.

[11] See, for example, Sohail Inayatullah, Situating Sarkar. Maleny, Australia, Gurukul, 1999 and Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Fitzgerald, eds. Transcending Boundaries. Maleny, Australia, Gurukul, 1999.

[12] Munawar Anees, Human Cloning: An Atlantean Odyssey? Eubios Journal of Asian and International Bioethics (Vol. 5, No. 1, 1995), 36‑37. Also available from Periodica Islamica, 22 Jalan Liku, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 59100.

[13] Abdulaziz Sachedina 1997. “Testimony before the Subcommittee on Public Health and Safety of the

Committee on Labor and Human Resources, United States Senate, 105th Congress.” Ethics and Theology:

A Continuation of the National Discussion on Human Cloning. U.S. Government Printing Office. See: http://research.mednet.ucla.edu/pmts/Germline/Religion%20Philosophy/rpframes.htm (accessed April 11, 2000).

[14] For more on this, see, Sohail Inayatullah, “Further and Closer than Ever Before: The futures of religion,” in Felix Marti, ed. The Contribution of Religion to the Culture of Peace, Barcelona, Centre Unesco de Catalunya, 1995

[15] Lydia Krueger, “North-South” in Kevin Rosner, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems. Paris, Unesco, 2002 (forthcoming).

[16] Anwar Ibrahim, “The Ummah and Tomorrow’s World,” Futures (Vol. 23, No. 3, April 1991), 302-310.[17] Ibid., 307.

[18] Ibid., 308

[19] Ibid., 309

[20] See, Sohail Inayatullah, “Expanding our Knowledge and Ignorance: Understanding the Next One Thousand Years,” The Australian Business Network Report (Vol. 7, No. 10, December, 2000), 13-17 and Sohail Inayatullah, “Ageing Futures: From Overpopulation to World Underpopulation, ” The Australian Business Network Report (Vol. 7, No. 8, October, 1999), 6-10;.

[21] Charles Darwin in Richard Lynn, Dysgenics: Genetic Deterioration in Modern Populations. Westport, Ct. Praeger, 1996, 5.

[22] Ibid.

[23] Felix Marti, ed. The Contribution of Religion to the Culture of Peace, Barcelona, Centre Unesco de Catalunya, 1995.

[24] Sohail Inayatullah, “Leaders envision the future of the Islamic Ummah,” World Futures Studies Federation Bulletin (July 1996), Coverpage.. See, Sohail Inayatullah, “Futures Visions of Southeast Asia: Some Early Warning Signals,” Futures (Vol. 27, No. 6, July/August, 1995), 681-688.

[25] The words of Yang Chu, said, while weeping at the crossroads. From the Confucian Hsun-tzu

Corporate, Technological, Epistemic and Democratic Challenges: Mapping the Political Economy of University Futures (2001)

Sohail Inayatullah

Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan and Sunshine Coast University, Australia. www.metafuture.org

 

Trends of changing student expectations (access to global systems of knowledge, including transparency and international accreditation), the internet (virtual education, moving from campus center to person centered, and far more customized, individually tailored), global corporatization (reduced state funding for universities and the development of a market culture on campuses) and transformed content (multicultural education) will dramatically influence all the world’s universities. Indeed the potential for dramatic transformation is so great that in the next fifteen to twenty years, it is far from certain that universities as currently constituted – campus based, nation-funded, and local student-oriented – will exist. Certainly, the current model for the university will cease to be the hegemonic one.

Of course, rich universities like Harvard will be able to continue without too much challenge, but the state-supported University will be challenged. Asian nations where education is defined by the dictates of the Ministry of Education too will face the efficiency oriented, privatization forces of globalization. Their command and control structure will be challenged by globalization – market pressures, technological innovations and the brain gain (that is, from graduates returning home from the USA and England).

Corporatization

Corporatization will create far more competition than traditional universities have been prepared for. Corporatization is the entrance of huge multinational players into the educational market. Total spending in education in America was 800$ billion US in 2001, estimates The Economist. By 2003, the private capital invested in the US will total 10 billion dollars, just for the virtual higher education market and 11 billion dollars in the private sector serving the corporate market. Indeed, John Chambers, CEO of Cisco systems, calls “online education the killer application of the internet.” Jeanne Meister, president of Corporate University Xchange(CUX), expects that by 2010 there will be more corporate universities in the United States than traditional ones. They are and will continue to challenge the academy’s monopolization of accreditation.. Globalization thus provides the structure and the Net the vehicle. Pearson, for example, a large British media group that owns 50% of the Economist, is betting its future on it, hoping that it can provide the online material for the annual two million people that will be seeking a degree online. Motorola, Accenture, Cisco and McDonolds as well as News Corporation all seek to become respectable universities. Cisco Networking Academies have trained 135000 students in 94 countries. Motorola has a new division called Motorola Learning and Certification which resells educational programs. Accencture has purchased a former college campus and spends 6.5% of its revenues on educating employees.

Of course, much of this is not new. Corporation education has always been big. What is new is that corporate universities seek to enter markets traditionally monopolized by academics. And, given pressures on corporation to be more inclusive of minorities, to be more multicultural and more triple bottom line oriented (prosperity, planet plus people), it may be that corporate universities embrace diversity at a quicker pace than traditional universities.

Clearly when billion dollar corporations want to enter the market – a rapidly growing market, especially with the aging of the population and with national barriers to education slowly breaking down – the challenge to the traditional university becomes dramatic, indeed, mission, if not life threatening. With an expanding market of hundreds of millions of learners, money will follow future money. Money will transform education, at the very least, dominate the discourse who and what values are most important – is the student, academic, administrator, community or are corporate interests first, remains the answered question.

For community education and for communities – traditionally tied to a local regional university – seeking economic vitality, their future will become far more daunting. As universities globalize, corporatize and virtualize – moving services to low cost areas – place will more and more disappear.

This is a far cry from the classical European, Islamic on Indic university, concerned mostly with moral education. Moreover, as in Bologna in the 10th century, the university was student-run. If the professor was late, he was fined by students, some teachers were even forced to leave the city. Paradoxically, corporatization with its customer-first ideology may return us to a student-run university. The Academy beware!

University Dimensions

The point is that at one time the university was student-run, we know that it is no longer so, if anything it is administration-run. Who will run it in the future? To understand this we need to explore the different dimensions of the University. The University is partly about social control, and it is also about baby-sitting. What to do with teenagers? How to keep them out of trouble? The other dimension is national development. We have schools to convince everyone that we’re a good people, that we have the best system. Each nation engages in social control, it uses education to give legitimacy to the nation-state, to make good patriots. We also have university for job training, the entire practical education moment. – the small community colleges, where the goal is to go to a small college to get practical education so that one can get a real job after graduation.

Thus the classical view of knowledge for the cultivation of the mind has been supplanted by the industrial model. And, as you might expect the big growth in jobs in the university are in the area of the bureaucracy. Whereas tenure is being eliminated in favor of part-time employment throughout the world, the university administration continues to expand.

Of course, the nature of administration is as well changing: it is being forced to become far more student-friendly, as with government subsidies of education being reduced, it is students who pay academic and administration wages. Fees provide the backbone of the private university. Customer satisfaction and student retention become far more important as compared to the traditional state subsidized university. As Flora Chang of Tamkang University said: “Student satisfaction through customer surveys, student retention data, and alumni loyalty are crucial factors” for our future success.

One key question will be: what can be automated? Who can be replaced by the internet and web education? Perhaps both – faculty and the administration – will be in trouble. This is the debate: too many administrators or too many professors. A third perspective is – a market perspective – not enough students and thus each university believes it must globalize and seduce students from all over the world attend their physical campus as well as take courses from their virtual campuses. However, generally, most universities still think of students in narrow ways. As young people or as students from one’s own nation. But with the ageing population and with the internet (with bandwith likely to keep on increasing), one’s paying students can be from anywhere.

The other classical view of university was academic-led – a shared culture focused on scholarship and science – but that too is been challenged. And of course the .com model even challenges what the university should look like. Should it be physical-based or virtual? Should it be based on a model of hierarchy or a networked model?

But for academics, the biggest challenge is the university as a corporation. And we know in the U.S. corporate funding for the University has increased from 850 million in 1985 to 4.25 billion US$ less than a decade later. In the last twenty years it has increased by eight times. It is likely that East Asian nations will follow this pattern. So far it is the state that has exclusively engaged in education. However, globalization is opening up this space in East Asia with foreign and local education suppliers seeking to reduce the controls of the Ministry of Education.

Thus the big money is coming from corporations and funding from the government is gradually being reduced years as per the dictates of the globalization model. While most presidents of the university would prefer a different model, they have no choice. More and more education is becoming an economic good. Humanity departments are being downsized throughout the world since the contribution to jobs is not direct. Unfortunately, they forget the indirect contribution, that of creating smart, multi-lingual, multi-cultural individuals – what some call social capital. However, in East Asia language remains central, necessary to understand other cultures, train civil servants and open up new markets.

However, there are some quite insidious affects of corporatization. First, information is no longer open, as corporations use it for profit making. A survey of 210 life-science companies in 1994 found that 58% of those sponsoring academic research required delays of more than six months before publication. The content of science itself changes as the funding increased. In a 1996 study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, 98% of papers based on industry-sponsored research reflected favorably on the drugs being examined as compared with 79% based on research not funded by the industry. Now what accounts for that 19% variation? And how will the public then see the university? As with the medical system, once patients believe that doctors are beholden to certain drug companies or web sites they are less likely to trust them. This holds true for university research as well.

But there is another side to globalization. In 1989 in the U.S. there were 364 new start up companies on the basis of a license to an academic invention. University technology transfer activities generated 34 billion dollars in U.S.$ supporting 280,000 jobs.

So the university is becoming more global and also producing incredible wealth, so there are two sides to globalization.

Virtualization: the .com revolution

The .com revolution as well has mixed reviews. For example, at one Australian university, over night, the prefix for academic emails was changed from edu.au to .com. The academics asked why did this occur? While some were upset that this happened without consultation, others were upset that the moral basis of the university was being transformed, they were deeply troubled by corporatization. The administration responded that we can no longer compete globally as an @.edu.au institution and instead had to become a .com. Eventually the university went back to edu.au as the pressure from academics was too great. With the .com world having lost its shine, perhaps it was a wise move.

But the university administration could see the writing on the wall. The traditional model of the classical liberal arts national subsidized university was ending – a new model was emerging. The mistake they made was not engaging in dialogue with others, not living the .com network model but instead using the power-based secrecy model of the industrial era.

The other problem that administrations have not yet begun to see is that much of middle-management can and is likely to be eliminated. The emerging knowledge economy – via the net and future artificial intelligence systems – will lead to dis-intermediation. With a good information system, you don’t need all the secretaries, the clerks, as well as those higher up the ladder. Of course, the politics of job firing, retraining, is a different matter and central to how the future university and overall world economy is to be organized in the future.

In Taiwan, surveys at Tamkang University, Taiwan, found that Professors and Administrators were enthusiastic about virtualization. Professors were enthusiastic as this would free their time spent at the university, increase interaction with colleagues and students, and administrators saw the cost savings. Deans saw it eroding their power base – control of the faculty – and students saw it taking away from what they valued most – face to face (not face to blur, ie huge classes) education. They desired a degree of broadband but not virtual classes.

Summarizing these two sections, it appears that the nature of what constitutes education is changing from being academy focused to being customer student focused; from being campus focused to being virtual; from being state subsidized to being corporate funding. Overtime – and certainly these processes are uneven with fits and starts, the university may becomes a process, it is no longer simply a place, with fixed 9-5 work patterns, with fixed schedules for classes. It can become a network.

Multicultural Realities

But there is a deeper possibility of change – this the epistemic bases of knowledge, of content, of what is taught, how it is taught and who teaches – essentially this is the multicultural turn.

In its tokenistic form, multiculturalism became a government fad of the last decade in postindustrial societies, its most controversial feature being its excesses of ‘political correctness’. In its deeper nature it is

about inclusiveness. At heart, argues Ashis Nandy, multiculturalism is about dissent, about contesting the categories of knowledge that modernity has given us. And, even with multiculturalism often criticized and coopted, used strategically to ensure representation, still the future is likely to be more and more about an ethics of inclusion instead of a politics of exclusion. Of course, the struggle will be long and hard, and more often than not, instead of new curriculum, there will be just more special departments of the Other.

Deep multiculturalism challenges what is taught, how it is taught, the knowledge categories used to teach, and the way departments enclose the other. It provides a worldview in which to create new models of learning and new universities which better capture the many ways students know the world. As futures researcher Paul Wildman reminds us, this can extend to concepts such as multiversities and even ‘subversities’ which encourage participation from scholars and students who dwell at the periphery of knowledge. In this form, multiculturalism goes beyond merely inclusion of ‘other’ ethnicities, to a questioning of the whole paradigm of western scientific rationalism on which centuries of university traditions are founded. In this perspective, multiple ways of knowing including spiritual or consciousness models of self, in which as James Grant for the Mahrishi University of Mangement and Marcus Bussey of The Ananda Marga Gurukul University assert, the main driver in transforming universities of the next century is an explosion of inner enlightenment, a new age of higher consciousness about to begin. Thus, there are three levels to this. The first is inclusion of others, in terms of who gains admission into universities, who teaches, ensuring that those on the periphery gain entrance. A second level is less concerned with quantifiable representation and more with inclusion of others’ ways of knowing – expanding the canon of what constitutes knowledge as well how knowledge is realized. A third level is what Indian philosopher P.R. Sarkar calls, the liberation of the intellect, education that transcends the limitation of geographical sentiments, religious sentiments, race-based sentiments and even humanism, moving toward a planetary spiritual consciousness and touching upon the spiritual.

In terms of curriculum and disciplinary boundaries, multiculturalism challenges the notion that there is only one science. Western science instead of being seen as a quest for truth is considered to be one way of knowing among many. There are can alternative sciences – feminist science, Tantric science, Islamic science. They are still engaged in empirical and verifiable research but the questions asked, the ethical framework are different. Generally, the type of research is more concerned with indigenous problems, with local concerns. It is less violent to nature, toward “subjects” and more concerned with integrated self and other, mind and body, intellect and intuition.

What’s happening throughout universities is that scholars are contesting the content of scholarship – how, for example, history is taught, asking are all civilizations included, or are only Western thinkers, Western notions of discovery and culture honored.

Many years ago, I give a lecture at an Australian university and questioned how they were teaching their main course on World History. I noted that the grand thinkers from Islamic, Sinic and Indian civilizations were not included. Why? And when other civilizations were briefly mentioned they were written as threats to the West or as barbarians. Women and nature as well were absent. I argued that this creates a view of history that is not only inaccurate but violent since other cultures see themselves through these hegemonic eyes. Instead of creating an inclusive history of humanity’s struggle, a history of one particular civilization becomes valorized.

While it is unlikely that the professor who teaches this course will change, students have changed. They want multiple global perspectives. They understand that they need to learn about other cultures from those cultures’ perspectives. Globalization in the form of changing immigration patterns is moving OECD nations by necessity toward better representation, irrespective of attacks of multicultural as “political correctness.”

The multicultural challenge to the traditional university can be defined as below:

  • Challenge to western canon
  • Challenge to intellect as the only way of knowing
  • Challenge to divorce of academic from body and spirit – challenge to egghead vision of self/other
  • Challenge to modernist classification of knowledge
  • Challenge to traditional science (feminist, islamic, postnormal, indian)
  • Challenges pedagogy, curriculum as well as evaluation – ie process or culture, content and evaluation or what is counted.

We are already seeing the rise of multiculturalism in OECD nations. For example, at one conference in Boston, when participants were asked to list the five American authors they believed most necessary for a quality education, they placed Toni Morrison second and Maya Angelou third. Others on the top ten, included Maclom X and James Baldwin. The first was Mark Twain.

The multicultural perspective challenges as well the foundation of knowledge. Multicultural education is about creating structures and processes that allow for the expression of the many civilizations, communities and individuals that we are.

Multicultural education contests the value neutrality of current institutions such as the library. For example, merely including texts from other civilizations does not constitute a multi-cultural library. Ensuring that the contents of texts are not ethnocentric is an important step but this does not begin to problematize the definitional categories used in conventional libraries. For example, in the multicultural perspective, we need to ask what a library would look like if it used the knowledge paradigms of other civilizations? How would knowledge be rearranged? What would the library floors look like? In Hawaiian culture, for example, there might be floors for the Gods, for the aina and genealogy. In Tantra, empirical science would exist alongside intuitional science. Floor and shelve space would privilege the superconscious and unconscious layers of reality instead of only focusing on empirical levels of the real. In Islam, since knowledge is considered tawhidic (based on the unity of God), philosophy, science and religion would no longer occupy the discrete spaces they currently do. Of course, the spatiality of “floors” must also be deconstructed. Information systems from other civilizations might not privilege book-knowledge, focusing instead on story-telling and dreamtime as well as wisdom received from elders/ancestors (as in Australian Aboriginal) and perhaps even “angels” (either metaphorically or ontologically).

A multi-cultural library might look like the world wide web but include other alternative ways of knowing and being. Most certainly knowledge from different civilizations in this alternative vision of the “library” would not be relegated to a minor site or constituted as an exotic field of inquiry such as Asian, Ethnic or Feminist studies, as are the practices of current libraries. The homogeneity of the library as an organizing information system must be reconstructed if we are to begin to develop the conceptual framework of multi-cultural education.

Thus, not only is the structure of the University changing, that is, virtualization, but the content as well is being transformed. Now what does this mean, in terms of policy prescriptions? If you want your university to have a bright future, you have to understand the changing nature of the student – changing demographics (older, more females) and changing expectations (more multicultural). Generally, while getting a job will always be important, the equation has changed to planet, prosperity and people, that is, a strong concern for the environment, for wealth creation and for engaging with others and other cultures.

For academics, the multicultural is as well about the changing role of the Professor. For example, the university becomes not just a site of gaining knowledge but a place for experiencing other dimensions of reality, at the very least, for balancing body, mind and spirit.

Democratizing the Feudal Mind

The role of academics is changing as well. This is the generally the hardest notion for senior professors to swallow – the democratization of the university. We want democracy for government, but we don’t want democracy for universities .

The university remains feudal. For example, while the economy in East Asian nations has transformed, that is, feudalism was destroyed, the feudal mind has not changed. This is the grand question for East Asian nations. How to create a culture of innovation, how to go to the next level of economic development, instead of copying, creating. To create an innovative learning organization, you can’t have a culture of fear. This means real democracy in details like what type of seating is in the room. As well as: can students challenge professors? Can junior professors challenge senior academics without fear of reprisal. Innovation comes from questioning.

In British systems, the university structure is as well profoundly feudal. A strong distinction is made between the professor and the lecturer. Indeed, the professor is high on top the pyramid with others way below (and the president of the university residing on the mountain top).

Thus can we democratize the university? Of course, it is difficult to do this as few of us like being challenged. We all have our view of reality, our favorite models, and we believe we are correct. But creating a learning organization means challenging basic structures and finding new ways to create knowledge and wealth. It doesn’t mean always going to the President for solutions. Transforming the feudal university is very difficult.

However, I am not discounting the importance of respect for leadership, for discipline and hardwork – challenging authority doesn’t mean being rude, it means contesting the foundations for how we go about creating a good society.

Along with a learning organization, however, is the notion of a healing organization. Merely, focused on learning forgets that much of our life is spent focused on relationship – with our inner self, with colleagues, with nature and cosmos and with the university itself. As universities change their nature – reducing tenured positions, increasing teaching loads – health becomes an issue. Sick institutions can emerge quite quickly, unless there is a focus on creating ways to learn and heal, to develop sustainable and transformative relationships.

However, democratization is not facile given the trends mentioned above. For the Asian academic, for example, the choices shrink daily. Her or she can choose between the following alternatives – the 4 big M’s. The first M is the Ministry of Education. Choosing this career means grant research focused only on the Ministry’s needs, and it means being dependent on government. When states go wrong, or punish dissent as in Malaysia or Indonesia, or Pakistan and India, losing one’s job and prison are real possibilities. Text are written with the other nation as the enemy, as in India and Pakistan. The professor must teach these texts or lose his or her position. One pakistani academic, for example, was jailed for giving a lecture on alternative futures that contested the notion of Pakistan as an eternal state.

The second choice is the Mullah, or the cleric. This is money from not the corporation or State but the competing worldview to the modern, the Islamic. In real terms this has meant soft and strong version of Wahibism – the creation of International Islamic Universities with Saudi funds as in Kaula Lumpur, Malaysia. Freedom of inquiry is problematic as well here, as boundaries of inquiry are legislated by the University’s charter. Instead of spiritual pluralism what results is uncritical traditionalism.

If we combine the first two choices we get a combination of religious hierarchy with feudal and national hierarchy, creating very little space for the academic. In the Indian context , this would be the brahmin who goes to Oxford to study economics, joins the world bank and returns to Delhi to work with the Ministry of Economic Development.

The third M is “Microsoft”, focusing one’s career on developing content for the new emerging universities. This is the quickly developing area of Net eudcation. The cost for the academic here too are high – it is contract work, often a loss of face to face, of collegial relationships, of the academy as a moral mission. Volume and speed are likely to become more important than integrity and the inner life.

The final M is McDonaldization. This is the move to the convenience 7/11 university, the Australian model. Large student volume, in and out, with academics having heavy teaching loads. A professorship essentially becomes focused on gaining grants.

Leaving these M’s is a possibility, dependent on the nature of the state one lives under. However, the traditional imagination of the university is not a possibility. The route in the last 50 years was the escape to the Western university, but with these universities too in trouble, this route seems blocked.

So far I have touched upon four trends: corporatization, virtualization, multiculturalism and democratization as well as basic missions of the University. Given these trends and missions, what are the possibilities for the university, what are the possible structures?

Possible Structures

I see three possible structures. One is being a University leader, joining the world’s elite, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford. The focus then is: “We are only going to get the best bright students around the world.” But the challenge to this model comes from the .com world. The big money is unlikely to be in teaching but in content design. The issue is though once you put your name on cdroms, on internet content, does that diminish your brand name, its exclusivity. If everyone can enter an elite university’s web course, is the university still elite? This is the issue of franchising. Should you focus on a small customer base that can pay a lot or become like the University of Pheonix (the largest university in the USA, offers no tenure, uses short courses as well as flexible delivery. A kind of just-in-time education).

For large universities, there are two clear choices – elite university or low cost producers with hundreds of millions of new students all over the world as potential purchasers. A third choice for the smaller university is the niche university –focused in a particular area of excellence. Not trying to be too much, just focused on one particular area (regional concerns, for example).

The question for the traditional university is new competition from global players: multi-media corporations, elite universities that are expanding and branding as well as low-cost producers.

These issues are already of concern in the USA, and soon they will be crucial here as well. It is harder to see this in East Asian nations (and those colonized by England) since the State plays such a strong role in education. But eventually in five or ten years the competition will come here as well. All universities will find themselves in a global market.

However, a university can find ways to be all these structures, developing different campuses. One could be focused on life-long learning, short courses. A second could be research focused, linked to government and industry. A third could be elite based, having student friendly teacher-student faculty ratios. The Net could link them all, or there could be a fourth virtual campus, a net university. In these worlds, what stands out is the loss of community education, of the university focused on place. However, as universities homogenize through globalization, communities may find niches.

Scenarios for the Future

The next question is what are the probable scenarios for the future of the university. We use scenarios to reduce uncertainty. Scenarios are also important in that they also help us rethink the present – they give us a distance from today.

Earlier futures studies focused entirely on single point prediction. The field then moved to scenario planning, to alternative futures. But now, it is moving to capacity development, with creating learning organizations where foresight is a continuous part of what the organization does.

Studies that examine corporations that have survived over a hundred years found that the one key factor in explaining longevity was the capacity to tolerate ideas from the margin. Even for corporate universities this is crucial – the capacity to tolerate dissent, indeed, to nurture different ideas, new ideas from the edge.

In terms of scenarios, the first one is the Star Alliance model. I use this term from the airlines – where the passenger is always taken care of – there is easy movement from one airline to the other. Everything is smooth. For the university, this would mean easy movement of student credits, faculty and programs. A student could take one semester at Stanford, and a second semester in Tamkang, and a third semester at Singapore National University. Professors could also change every semester. So it means a similar web of movement. Star alliance works because customers are happy. The airlines are happy because they get brand loyalty. The student might say “I know if I join this university, my credits are transferable. I could access the best professor, I could access the best knowledge in the world.

The weakness in this scenario is the proportioning of funds as well as the costs of movement to the local community, to community building, to place itself.

The second scenario is what I call, Virtual Touch. This vision of the future of the university combines the best of face-to-face pedagogy (human warmth, mentoring) with virtual pedagogy (instant, anywhere in the world, at your own time and speed). If it is just technology then you get bored students, staring at a distant professor. But if it is just face-to-face you don’t get enough information. The universities who can combine both will do very well.   Ultimately that will mean wearable wireless computers. We already know that in Japan they use the wireless phone to dial up a website and find the out the latest movie, or weather or stock quote.

In 10 years, it is going to be the wearable computer, so we’re going to have a computer with us all the time. I can find out everything, I can find out the minerals in water for example, testing to see if it is clean or not. And that technology is almost developed now. I can find out where was my microphone was made. Was it made in China, in Taiwan, in the U.K. I just dial up and I can get product information. And this information will be linked to my values, what type of world I want to see. Thus, I’ll purchase products that are environmentally friendly, where the corporation treats women well. And students will see university courses in the same way: is it well taught, what is the professor like, how much democracy is in the class, what are the values of the University?

The third scenario is: A university without all walls. It’s means the entire world becomes a university . As Majid Tehranian writes: “If all goes well, the entire human society will become a university without walls and national boundaries.” We don’t need specific universities anymore since the university is everywhere, a true knowledge economy wherein humans constantly learn and use their knowledge to create processes that create a better fairer, richer, happier world.

The Future of the Profession

Let me now return to the future of the academic. What is the role of the academic in this dramatically changing world? The first possibility is the traditional professor – this is the agent of authority, great in one field but knowing very little about other fields. They may know Physics but not complexity theory. They are useful in that they are brilliant in one area but not so useful since they have a hard time adapting to change.

The second role is the professor as web content designer. While the current age-cohort is unlikely to engage in these activities, younger people will – what has been called digital natives. For example, my children – 8 and 6 – clearly see their future in the design of new digital technologies. Other young people as well see knowledge as quite different than we do. They see knowledge as quick, as interactive, as multi-disciplinary and as always changing. They want to be web designers and information designers. So the old role of academics was to write books, the new role is that of creating new types of interactive content. And the content will likely be far more global, multicultural than we have so far seen. It appears to be an entirely different world being created.

That also means, if you are the web designer, your student becomes key. This means using action learning methods. Action learning means that the content of the course is developed with the student. While the professor may have certain authoritative knowledge, his or her role is more of a mentor, the knowledge navigator to help the student develop his or her potential within his or her categories of what is important.

 

This will be good news for academics who retain their positions. Most of the professors I speak with would prefer less teaching – information passing out – and more communication. The mentoring role is far more rewarding, personal. The old school was the long lecture. The new way of thinking is just tell the student to go the web and find out. Afterwards there can be a discussion. The Professor then has to learn how to listen to students’ needs and not just to lecture to them.

What is unique about our era is that we now have the technology to do this. Do we have the political will, the wisdom?

Community and the University

What do these trends mean for the University’s relationship with community? Clearly it is under threat. It is global corporatization or spaceless time that is far more important than local and immediate time. Community, however, can be an antidote to many of the threats. It could unite academics, falling back on each other to question the future of the university. On a more instrumental note, regional universities, or universities specifically designed and developed for a locale are a niche that is likely to become more, not less, important as the trends of globalization, virtualization, multiculturalism and democratization continue. Certainly, democracy needs the notion of community and multiculturalism is essentially about more and more community, higher and higher levels of inclusion.

There are four possibilities for Community Spaces

  1. Alliance with other communities – like minded learning communities. This is a novel challenge, and means moving outside the national arena as defining and searching for other communities in similar situations. Sister cities is a dimension of this, but far more important are real contact not photo opportunities.
  2. Alliance with the corporate world – attract businesses to survive.
  3. Communities aligning with social movements, that is creating moral space. Prosperity is an issue here, however, a strong local community can ensure that basic needs are met, even if globalized wealth does not raise everyone’s wealth (at least local strength will ensure that globalization does not reduce local wealth)
  4. The fourth possibility is that communities will themselves transform., There only hope is create Global-local spaces since academics are now becoming virtual and global. Only a program that has local place dimensions with global mobility dimensions can prosper.

Dissenting Futures

Let me conclude this essay with the issue of dissent. What makes the role of the academic unique is that he or she can challenge authority. When the system becomes too capitalistic, this can be questioned. If it is too religious, this too can be countered. All the excesses of the system can be challenged. And who can do this? Those who work for the government can’t since they fear losing their jobs. Those belonging in the church, temple or mosque can’t since they are ideologically bound. And this is the problem with globalization, by making efficiency the only criteria, moral space is lost. As academics we should never, I believe, lose sight of our responsibility to create new futures, to inspire students, to ask what-if questions, to think the unthinkable, to go outside current parameters of knowledge. This is our responsibility to current and future generations.

 

Selected References

Eyal Press and Jennifer Washburn, The Kept University in The Atlantic Monthly (March 2000), 39-54.

Glazer, Nathan. We are all Multiculturalists Now. Harvard, Harvard University Press, 1997.

Inayatullah, Sohail and Jennifer Gidley, eds. The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives on the Futures of the University. Westport, Ct., Bergin and Garvey, 2000.

Inayatullah, S. “The Multicultural Challenge to the Future of Knowledge.” Periodica Islamica, 1996, 6(1), 35–40.

Staff, “Online Education: Lessons of a virtual timetable,” The Economist (February 17, 2001), 71-75.

Tehranian, M. “The End of the University.” Information Society, 1996, 12(4), 444–446.

Wildman, P. “From the Monophonic University to Polyphonic Multiversities.” Futures, 1998, 30(7), 625–635.

Wiseman, L. “The University President: Academic Leadership in an Era of Fund Raising and Legislative Affairs.” In R. Sims and S. Sims (eds.), Managing Institutions of Higher Education into the Twenty-First Century. Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1991.

West and Non-West, Ego and Alter-Ego: Technological, Communicative and Microvita Futures Explored (2001)

Sohail Inayatullah. Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Tamkang University; International Management Centres Association, University of Action Learning; the Communication Center, Queensland University of Technology.

Keywords: Civilizations, Alternative Futures, Agricultural, Food, Macrohistory, Scenarios

Summary: The argument made in this article that there are generally two foundational global  futures – the artificial (globalization-technologization) era and the communicative-inclusive era. The basic perspective in the first scenario is that things rise – more progress, more technology, more development, more wealth and more individuality. This is generally the view of older age cohorts and those in the center of power. The second scenario is focused on inner and social transformation, whether because of green or spiritual values or because of the wise and moral use of technology. This is the vision of those marginal to the system – youth, women, the “others” – it is idealistic, and not beholden to the values of the Market or State but firmly entrenched in the People’s Sector. In contrast to the exponential curve of the first scenario, this scenario has a cyclical curve (returning to a more stable time) in some variations and a spiral curve (a return to traditional values but in far more inclusive terms) in other variations.

These two scenarios, images of the future, oscillate in the West. The West needs the latter, its alter-ego, to refresh itself.  Within this over all pattern, Collapse remains the fear (technology gone wrong or overpopulation from the South either because of the exploitation of nature or over-concentration of power and wealth) that spurs the West to constantly create new futures. The image of collapse is used as a call to action, to either join the technology revolution or the consciousness revolution, than as a firm belief in the end of the world.

We also argue that the West is by definition in crisis, indeed, crisis – the threat of collapse or a return to a slower time (an imagined past when men were men and economies were local, with chaos controllable) is how it refreshes itself. Without these two pillars, the West would have fallen to the way side and other civilizations would have reigned supreme.

In contrast to the West, the non-West follows a different pattern. The ego of the non-West has now been constructed by the West, such that as much as the non-West resists Westernization, it embraces it, becoming even more Western than the West, as, for example, Japan or Malaysia. The alter-ego, however, comes across in two ways: first as traditional, ancient indigenous knowledge, generally, focused not on the Western utopia but on the Indic and Sinic eupsychia – the cultivation and perfection of the self.  Related to this concern is the self-reliant, localist, community model of development and social relations. Second, as attempts to not only limit their understandings at local levels but making new claims for the universal. This perspective is best stated by the Indian philosopher, P.R. Sarkar. His theory of agriculture as well as the worldview behind it, which he terms Microvita, offers a new vision of the future of science, society and particularly of food and agriculture. The article concludes by exploring the impact of Sarkar’s theory on the future of agriculture and food.

Contents:

1.      Technological Fatigue

2.      Western Worldview

3.      Scenarios Of The Future

4.      Case Studies

5.      Values And Behavior

6.      Structure Of The Future

7.      The Non-West

8.      Local and Integrated Farming

9.      Sarkar’s Vision Of The Future

10.  The Microvita Revolution

 

1. TECHNOLOGICAL FATIGUE

Based on the massive 10 nation study of how individuals envisioned the Year 2000, Johan Galtung writes that the most pessimistic respondents where those that came from the richest nations. [1]  In particular, young people,[2] relevant here to us as potential carriers of a new worldview or at least as idealistic visionaries who can transform Industrial civilization, expressed a development fatigue. They had seen the limits of technology, and understood that social transformation and inner transformation was required. While respondents generally desired social and inner change, what they received were more technologies.[3]

The result of unfulfilled desired has been cognitive dissonance, at a foundational level, civilizational level.  The dissonance can be described as: a desire for social transformation but the reality of globalized technocracy: a discourse of fairness but global, national and corporate policies that discriminate against the poor, the indigenous, the young – the most vulnerable.

At one extreme it is the rush to join the MBA set (and now e-tech culture), to globalise, to work hard to ensure that one’s own future is bright, even if the rest of the ship is sinking (the Titanic metaphor of the future). Agriculture and farming in this perspective/strategy are not just seen as uneconomical but as dirty, as part of pre-industrial history. With history defined in linear terms, the past is to be avoided (and specifically left to the Others, the backward countries and races).

The second response has been the global backlash of the right – to resist multiculturalism (specifically, the alternative ways of knowing expressed by other cultures), and the other, through a return to extreme forms of one’s identity. This is the Islamic right wing or the Christian right wing and localist/nationalistic movements throughout the World.

In more respectable forms, this is scientism, wherein science (like god) is seen outside of history, the truth for all once they convert to the open inquiry of the scientific method.[4] Science delivers the future, creates the future, for one and all. As famed physicist, Michio Kaku said in reference to the new world being created by the technologies of genetic engineering, nano-technology and space research: get on the train or forever be left behind.[5] The reality of not being able to get on the train has, as in earlier times, as resistance to the march of progress in the American Western Frontier, been an attack on the train – on globalisation, on gene research, as well as on other ethnicities (since they are most easily visible when it comes time to determining who has taken away the jobs).

Farming in this alternative future of resistance to globalization is considered bright, largely because it is associated with the past – simple technologies – and with mono-culture. The past is considered far less chaotic, time was slower, one lived with the rhythms of nature, and Others lived far away.

A third alternative to the rush of the future is common in OECD nations, that of suicide, especially suicide among males. They end their physical life partly as they see no future, they are missing moral male role models and the only rituals left are those around consumption – the shopping mall as the great savior.

Agriculture and farming seen here not merely as an economic activity but as a ritual, as a way of life. It can be considered the antidote to the problem of modernity and post-modernity. The agricultural ways of life brings discipline and hard work. There are clear rules, corn is corn and is not seen as part of discourse, but living reality.   However, for technological globalists, it is exactly this past that must be creatively destroyed by higher and higher forms of capitalism – the train must go on, eventually become a plane, then a starship. However, with limited portals to the gates of the globalization train, what results are not only attacks on the train (as with fundamentalist movements) but jumping in front of the train (suicide and depression by those who cannot cope with an accelerating future, or who sense that they will have no part in this future).

Irrespective of the strategy taken by young (and old), at heart then is a crisis in worldview. However, generally research on how people see the future rarely explores these foundations. Instead data is presented focused on whether individuals are optimistic or pessimistic about the future – the search is for signs of despair and hope. Causes of suicide are either individualized (no discipline), blamed on unemployment and other social and economic problems, or related to genes.[6]  However, for causes to be sensible must be nested in the limits of the industrial and postindustrial worldview wherein reality is segmented into work (profit-making) followed by years of retirement.  An analysis of worldview must as well speak to an even deeper sense of myth and metaphor. At this level of analysis, the issue is what stories do we tell ourselves?

For individuals outside of the mainstream of the present (and thus open to alternative futures), the  problem for them is a story of the universe in which they are expected to behave in certain ways (become a worker, rational human being) and a reality that either denies this possibility (unemployment) and is utterly divorced from their world (the limits of the European enlightenment with respect to accessing other ways of knowing). There is thus a contrast to the world of globalization and secularization and the realities of emotions and identity creation.

So far we have pointed to the alternatives taken to jumping on the train to the future. First, there is cognitive dissonance since people do not want a train to the future but rather want the worldview behind the one-train perspective to be challenged. They want inner transformation and social innovation not the latest technology. Those that can not get on attack the train and yearn for earlier days. Others see no hope and jump in front of the globalization train. A fourth alternative is the postmodern, to see the entire exercise as socially constructed, so not only one train to the future but many trains and many other forms of transport (jet planes, camels, teleportation, telecommunication, walking, sitting still and imagining).

However, a problem with postmodernism is that it gives endless choices – virtuality – but with no foundation.[7]   Without this foundation, the result is a reality with too many selves – the swift Teflon vision of the future, where identity is about speed and the collection of a multitude of experiences, not about understanding the Other – not about deep communication wherein others (nature, other cultures, new technologies, even) are understood in their own terms.

Moreover the terms within which postmodernism includes others remains defined within the confines of the Western limitless worldview of accumulation. The choices, apparently multicultural, in fact, are about consumption, consuming other cultures. Virtuality merely creates the illusion of endless choice but not the fulfillment of having met and responded to a challenge. Nature, conditions of inequity and authentic alternatives to the postmodern are lost in this discourse. It is the response to the challenge that leads to inner growth, to economic and social development. The end result of postmodernity is depression, a condition that the World Health Organization has already made dramatic forecasts about. WHO estimates that by 2020 depression will be the leading cause of  “disability adjusted life years“ dramatically increasing the demands for psychiatric health services for young and old…[8]

2. WESTERN WORLDVIEW

However, as Galtung argues, it is too simple to say that the problematique is of the Western worldview, of the crises of the West. First since the West is ubiquitous and second since even closed societies exhibit similar problems. Third, it is a conceptual mistake to argue that the West is in crisis since this is a tautological statement.[9] The West by definition exists in this way. That has been the West’s success in expanding the last 500 years.  The West is not just linear in its evolution, it is also dramatic, apocalyptic (the end of the World, the collapse). The West by definition searches for the latest breakthrough, the victory, the challenge that can propel onwards.

But the other side of the West is its alter ego. This alter ego is focused not on expansion but on human rights. Not on the businessman but on the shaman, not on the mature adult ready to life and retire from the company (or kingdom or church) but on the youth that contests reality. Not on domination focused masculine principles but on partnership focused feminine principles. Not the city but the wild.

The challenge to official reality comes also from the outside, the periphery, for example, the Bedouins not vested in the normative and coercive power of the state, as Ibn Khaldun argues.[10]  Indeed, youth, women, mystics, those from traditional society, are the periphery. Even as many are part of the ego of the West (I shop therefore I am) many are of the alter-ego (I love therefore I am and I protest therefore I am). It has been the capacity of the West to appropriate counter movements – the challenge to official reality – to use youth, women, non-western cultures and others to transform itself from within that has been the success of making the West universal.  The incredible growth in the organic food industry is an excellent example of this. In this sense, the crisis in the West is not new, it is merely the alter-ego expressing the alternative West.

Farming and Food:

Within the framework of agriculture/farming, this  ego/alter ego oscillation comes out in two ways. The dominant is clearly the technological with the subservient the organic, the manual. In the technological, this has moved from industrial farming, and in recent times, to GM foods (for example, “everything from pickles and peanut butter to tofu and tomatoes is in the US injected with genes from arctic fish to make them frost resistant”[11]). The GM food future will eventually leading to functional foods, wherein foods will be injected with various vaccines (Tetanus or polio, for example) or fruit juices flush with psyllium for fibre or grapes with high amounts of lycopene for treatment of prostate cancer or applies spliced with an antioxident gene from strawberries)[12]. The alternative is community farming, a return to nature. Women are of course playing a leading role in the switch to consuming organic foods partly as the suffer more from health problems (as one would expect in patriarchy) but also as they are generally more concerned with future generations, with the health of their children.

However, it is mistake to see organic farming (community farming, perma-culture, etc) as outside the Western worldview, it is merely the shadow side of the technological.

We should this within the futures of agriculture expect to see a continued rise of both Wests – the transgenic food industry and the organic food industry (as well slippage in the organizational paradigms behind them, ie the former may become decentralized and localized while the latter may become like a real industrial era industry, moving away from its community “small is beautiful”  roots).

Understanding Structure:

Returning to our exploration of what individuals do when desires are unfulfilled (attack the train, jump in front of the train, etc), part of the problem with those responding to globalization is that they base their politics on a visible identification of the enemy. In the metaphor we have used, evil are corporate heads or mad scientists. The metaphorical dimension of the train representing  progress, the one-track as mono-culture nature of technology and the uni-direction is the commitment to progress at all costs.

Thus what is harder to see – beyond the visible litany – is the worldview, the codes that define what is real, what is important, what is beautiful, truth and reality. This becomes possible to see when one steps outside one’s own terms of reality and enters other cultures or time frames (creating an epistemological distance from the present and future).  Less difficult but still challenging is understanding structure, that is, historical processes that are actor invariant, such as class, patriarchy or varna (from sanskrit, loosely meaning color but generally a structure of power). While Marxists have focused on structure (the imperialists are the problem) as have muslims (Western Satans) but by resorting to conspiracy theories (using structure but unfortunately moving to specific cultures) they have lost legitimacy. Indeed, by focusing on evil and attempting to eliminate others, a war of attrition has resulted, where whomever is not the purest is bombed, as in South Asia and Yugoslavia.

Thus for those attempting to transform society, change appears to be easier when evil is clearer – whether a tyrant or a multinational such as General Motors or more recently Microsoft) or a world organization such as the World Bank. It is more difficult when structure (inequity) or worldview that must be challenged and transformed, that is, not the visible hardware but the harder to see software (actually, the problem is in the context that makes sense of hardware and software – the entire computing metaphor).

However, there is a worldview that comes across in a multitude of movements, each touching some dimension of the critique of what has come to be called globalization.  These are expressed in the form of the spiritual movements, the vegetarian movement, the green movement, the community movement, the human rights movements All these movements are generally supported by youth as cadres even if managed by aging hippies.  Thus, there is a clear age-cohort dimension to the future. As these young people age, what might the forms of social resistance take. What might be the mixture of cyber-protest, social movements, for example?

Later in this paper, we will investigate the structural parameters that may lead to success or failure for these movements. Suffice to say at this stage that how one sees the futures of change largely depends on whether one sees social change as linear or cyclical or spiral. For linear developmentalists, youth movements, spiritual movements, animal rights movements, community farming movements, are generally signs that (1) progress is occurring since history is complaining (2) these movements should be listened to since ignoring them only increases the costs to the system (but only if they cannot be mocked, avoided, imprisoned, first), and (3) generally the voices of morality have always complained, and technological/economic progress has always won. So as they in Australia: no worries. Stay on the track.

For cyclical thinkers, for example, such as Pitirim Sorokin,[13] systems reach their limits. Once reached they return to other periods in history. Each system can only express a certain level of reality. For example, as West qua materialism reaches its sensate peak, it marginalizes the spiritual. The system goes in crisis, and once it reaches this limit, it returns to an ideational system, focused on ideas, on morality. Progress becomes defined by proximity to God and not the capacity to purchase the real. Thus the current system has reached its natural limits and the alternative Ideational system is about to begin.

For spiral thinkers such as the late Indian philosopher and Master, P.R. Sarkar[14] – whom we will return to later – human social history move through stages. The workers era (shudra) focused on meeting basic needs. This led to the warrior era (ksattriya) where strength, challenges, honor were crucial. Empires resulted as power was centralized. Next comes the Intellectual Era (vipra) – power controlled by priests and monks – wherein ideas and their circulation is the key. The limit was reached when economic growth was avoided. In the battle between the monarch and the priest in European history, for example, it was the trader, the burghers outside the city walls, that emerged victorious. The capitalists (vaeshyas) entered the cycle and commodified workers, warriors and intellectuals. This is where we generally stand now. Next is a global worker’s revolution when the entire system will transform and move to a new era of Warriors (a centralized world governance system based on global ethics, honor and the meeting of new challenges, space, most likely). The spiral comes in that once the pattern is seen a new leadership can emerge and ensure that while the cycle turns, no group is exploited – neither worker, warrior, intellectual or trader – allowing the cycle to become a spiral.

The hypothesis then is that the crisis that the West faces are part of the West’s own renewal and clearly part of the fatigue of development.  They can also be nested in the structure of the time, the guiding worldview and the myth/story behind it.

Delay:

This fatigue, and resultant futures, has been delayed because of the internet revolution.  Earlier, calls for transformation where focused on the reinvigoration of farming and agricultural, of challenging industrial modes of family, organization, religion and sexuality. The farm meant a return to community, a rejection of the paradise of the (sub)burbs. A new age-cohort, screen-agers, as Douglas Rushkoff accurately calls them, have found a different way to express individuality.[15] It is quick time, quick communication and a chance to immediately lead instead of to follow. This will likely be even more delayed because of revolutions in genetics and nano-technology. While at one level delayed, at another level, the .com revolution is a youth explosion, of an expression of an alternative paradigm of social relations. Many small start- ups are multicultural, gender-partnership based and challenge traditional notions of working 9-5 and wearing black suits. They also offer a network vision of work and organizational structure. In this sense, they renew even as they delay more basic (needed) changes to globalization.

The issue then is the technological transformed promised by the Gene and Net revolution merely a continuation of globalization and technocracy or a structural and ideational foundational change?

Are the carriers of new social codes about the transformation of the dominant World culture – the West – or as part of the success of the West, itself?

3. SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE

Let us leave these questions for the time being and explore what types of futures are desired by groups and individuals throughout the world. Interestingly but not surprisingly, the ego and alter-ego of the West comes across in foundational scenarios of the future. These can be seen in popular and academic images of the future, and have certainly come across in visioning workshops in a range of countries.

Focusing on these scenarios is not to restrict the importance of individual trends such as disintermediation, aging, multiculturalism, the rights movement, global governance but to frame trends in the context of larger patterns of change. Scenarios or pictures of emerging futures is a far more integrative way of capturing such information.[16]

Globalized Artificial Future

The first is the globalized artificial future and the second is the Communicative-Inclusive future.[17]

The globalized scenario is high-technology and economy driven. Extreme features include, the right to plastic surgery and an airplane for each person. Generally, the vision is of endless travel and shopping, and a global society where we all have fun by having all our desires  met. It is the Western vision of paradise.

Food, while plentiful, in this scenario is identity based, ie food that defines self. Food is fun, food is exotic (Thai or Indian). Food is also mixed, eg Tex-Mex. Agricultural, as mentioned earlier, while at one level considered dirty, at another level, it is not considered at all, even if the reality is that world population increases require increased food production. Food, like other commodities, should be not scarce. It definitely should be globalized, all sorts easily available wherever one is. This is part of the postmodern/globalized thrust, of having all perspectives quickly and easily available In the long run, in this future, food will move from globalized food to transgenic food, moving not just from cultural diversity (many types of food) to genetically engineered food. For example, “the world market for transgenic products is projected to increase to $8billion in 2005 and 25$ billion in 2010. Corporate transactions related to ventures in GM seeds, agro-chemicals and research, valued at more than $ 15billion (from 1996-1999) is expected to keep pace.”[18] Overtime, food, will merge with pharmaceuticals, with the creation of functional foods, created for particular health needs.

Rural communities will be so not because they are agricultural based but because they are different from the city, indeed, they provide areas of respite for Earth as City: City as planet. Rurality may become redefined as areas of elite wealth and not as areas of cultural backwardness, as areas of limited choice, as, for example, the Australian Bush or the South Asian village are seen today.

More specifically, this scenario of the future can be defined as:

·                    Genetic Prevention, Enhancement and Recreation – New Species , Germ Line Engineering and the End of ‘Natural’ Procreation

·                    Soft and Strong Nano-Technology – End of Scarcity and Work

·                    Space Exploration – Promise of ET Contact or at Least, Species Continuation in case an Asteroid hits Earth.

·                    Artificial Intelligence and ultimately the Rights of Robots – development of personal artificial bots

·                    Life Extension and Ageing – Gerontocracy and the End of Youth Culture

·                    Internet and the Global Brain

·                    Globalization, large transnationals organizing production of needs and desires.

The underlying ethos is that technology can solve every problem and lead to genuine human progress.

At a grand level, this vision of the future challenges traditional notions of truth, reality, nature, Man and sovereignty. Truth is considered multiple, socially constructed. Reality is physical but as well virtual (cyberspace). Nature is no longer considered fixed but can be challenged and changed by humans, largely through genetic manipulation. While previously human evolution was stable, with cultural evolution quicker and technological evolution the quickest, now the technology has the potential to quicker human biological evolution itself. This fundamentally shifts the tension between culture and technology, to technology and biology, leaving culture where? The category Man has been has been deconstructed by feminists and shown to be historically constructed. And finally economic globalization makes sovereignty problematic and cultural globalization makes the sovereignty of the self (one stable self) porous, leading to far more liminal selves.

The impact of this vision and the underlying trends in the food area are singular. Genetically modified foods are the solution, especially since global agricultural production has been steadily declining since the Green Revolution of the 1960s’ and will continue to do so at 1.8% a year. With population increasing, along with a purchasing power (and technology and gene) divide, food production must dramatically increase.

Communicative-Inclusive

In contrast is the communicative-inclusive society, which is values driven. Consumption of every possible good in this scenario is far less important to communication. It is learning from another about another that is crucial. While technology is important, the morality of those inventing and using it is far more important. Instead of solving the world’s food problem through the genetic engineering of food, the reorganization of society and softer more nature-oriented alternatives such as organic foods are far more important.  Food is not only necessary for our biological growth but food is social (creating community) and food is spiritual (the correct foods helping one become more subtle and incorrect foods, crudifying one’s body/mind/spirit).

The goal is not to create a world that leads to the fulfillment of desire but one wherein desire is reduced (the Buddhist perspective) or channeled to spiritual and cultural pursuits. While earlier incarnations of the scenario were to make everyone into a worker (the Marxian distribution dream) or everyone into a shudra (a worker, the Gandhian sentiment) or a peasant (the Maoist), recent articulations are far more sophisticated and focused on what Sarkar[19] has called Prama – or dynamic balance. Prama means inner balance (of material/spiritual), regional balance (of nations, no one nation can be rich if the neighbor is poor), of industrial/agricultural production (not leaving the land but seeing it as part of national development) and of economic balance (self-reliance in basic needs plus export orientation of non-essentials).

Of course, in the USA, where only 2% work directly in the agricultural sector, balance should be defined differently. However, As Steve Diver argues in “Farming the Future”:

Though a dramatic increase in the farm sector is not appropriate in a developed economy, clearly more people would take up farming were it economically feasible.  In addition, when so many people are removed from the land and the experience of living and working around Nature, a cumulative collective psychological effect of dislocation and disconnectedness from self and one’s environment is likely.  Indeed, eco-psychologists suggest that many of the social ills present in industrialized countries are the result of such an imbalance.[20]

Along with balance, in this future, is diversity. In particular the pitfalls of reliance on genetic intervention are crucial here since they threaten biodiversity. Indeed, the Irish potato famine of the 1840s is largely because everyone plotted one crop. “Had the crop been biodiverse, the catastrophe would not have occurred.[21]

The alternative scenario gains credence as well since the logical conclusion of GM foods are nano-foods, or the fabled meal-in-a-pill. Of course, the pill will not be tasteless or odourless or emotionless (as currently imagined) – eating it will be a real virtual programmed experience. The pill will not just provide nutrients but evoke emotions, stimulate glands and for all practical purposes be everything we currently and historically associate with eating. Of course, the meal-in-a-pill still has to be invented but when it does, the issue will be what type of social situation will go with it? Once the collective meal is lost, what society will result? What ways then will there be to slow time down, to connect with others? How will the meal-in-a-pill fit into the food qua spirituality perspective?

It is these concerns that the communicative-inclusive scenario articulates and presents. Far more important than the meal-in-a-pill is the communicative nature of eating, of the importance of work for those producing food (work gives humans dignity), of the social design of food producers (not collectives nor corporations but cooperatives, sharing land and wealth), and of the health (physical, mental and spiritual) issues associated with food.

More specifically the communicative-inclusive scenario has the following characteristics:

·                    Challenge is not solved through technology but through creating a shared global ethics;

·                    Dialogue of civilizations and between civilizations in the context of multiple ways of knowing is the way forward;

·                    A balanced but dynamic economy. Technological innovation leads to shared co-operative economic system;

·                    Maxi-mini global wage system –incentive linked to distributive justice;

·                    A soft global governance system with 1000 local bio-regions;

·                    Layered identity, moving from ego/religion/nation to rights of all;

·                    Holistic science –life as intelligent.

The underlying perspective is that of a global ethics with a deep commitment that communication and consciousness transformation can solve all our problems.

The trends that underlie this scenario are as with the earlier scenario challenges to Truth, Reality, Nature, Man and Sovereignty but with a different angle. Instead of genetic science it is new paradigms in physics. Instead of a world ruled by multinationals, it is the growth of Green Parties and social movements associated with transparency  that are far more important.

Truth and Reality are seen as both ultimate (spiritual) and physical. It is multi-perspectual in that we make are own realities, however, there is an underlying non-constructed unity to reality – that of a moral universe driver by cause-effect. In one word: karma. This comes out from the growth of the spiritual movements and cosmological exchange (the non-West creating cultural bridgeheads in the West) as well as through the dramatic new health paradigm, which while essentially spiritual focuses on integrating mind-body, seeing both as essential to well-being.[22] Nature, however, is not to be tampered with. Urbanization is the problem and nature is given, indeed, a sacred trust given to humanity. Man is contested as humans are among the many species on the planet – nature, animals, with spiritual entities, Gaia herself. Sovereignty is challenged as nation-states are considered passe’ – part of the problem. A solution could be a planetary civilization based on the self-reliance model. Food would certainly be locally grown – and regional when required –  with the world government setting up policy standards (what level of chemical fertilizers what level of meat consumption allowed, and what levels of food can be exported).

However, this scenario should not be seen as anti-technology, although there are certainly groups that prefer aspects of this vision who are more luddite than others. But most likely technology is likely to be driven by ethical values. For example, technology could be used to give information on the caloric count of foods, so as to avoid high-fat foods. These health-bots could also immediately let one know the level of pollutants in the food, where the food was produced, and over time the social conditions that the food was produced in. Thus the net, cellular phones could be used to transform globalization from within, giving consumers information on products so that they could make choices consistent with their worldviews. Technology would thus serve as a moral guide, an angel over one’s shoulder, helping one do the right thing. [23]

However, while this is a change in paradigm, at a deeper cosmological level, it is not a foundational change, in that this scenario represents the alter-ego of the West. It is the West, contracting, searching for that identity it has unconsciously repressed.

4. CASE STUDIES

Within the theoretical context developed above, we now explore specifically what futures are likely to result. The likelihood of a particular future occurring is partly based on the desired future, that is, individuals are likely to work to create the futures they want. However, there are structural parameters that influence, that limit, the future as well. A later section of this article will explore these considerations.

In terms of the case studies presented below, they are based on the visions of young persons between the age of 15-25. This means that in 15-20 years they may be in policy positions to impact the future (at least the official ego future of the West and not the alter-ego, which they currently impact). The case studies below focus on how young people imagine their preferred futures as well as the type of alternative futures they see emerging. Of course, these case studies should be seen as indicative instead of conclusive, as among the signs of the emergent future.

1. Undergraduate Students at the Centre of European Studies, University of Trier- Agriculture and the Futures of Europe. [24]

Community/Organic:

The first and most popular scenario was the Community/Organic. In this scenario, young people moved away from the chemical corporate way of life and searched for community-oriented alternatives.  Local currency networks, organic farming, shared housing and other values and programs favored by the counter-culture were favored.  When asked why individuals would prefer this future, they responded that the current (1999) Dioxin contamination in Belgium (with similar scares in the future even more likely) could lead to quite dramatic changes away from artificial, pesticide and genetic foods, in the longer run.

Food was part of a larger life-style, paradigm issue. These young people imagined a community household system where goods and services were shared. However, one participant  imagined Europe not within the urban/community dichotomy but saw the entire of Europe as becoming community-oriented. This meant a clear move away from the view that I shop therefore I am  to I relate therefore I am. In this sense, the key way of knowing was not philosophy qua reason; or religion/state qua authority; or science quo empiricism, or even spirituality qua intuition but communication qua relationship. The self was no longer alone but nested in communities of care, each one expanding eventually leading to Gaia, herself.

This focus on relationship was also central for other participants, who did not specifically share the community/organic future. Indeed, it was the return to a strong family life that was pivotal in terms of how they saw the future of Europe. Taking care of children – and ensuring that the state provided funds for this – taking care of the elderly, and in general living so that familial relationship were far more important then exchange relations.

Clearly this scenario reflects the communicative-inclusive scenario identified earlier.

The Family:

In minor contrast to the community scenario, this future was far more focused on the nuclear family – the Family Future. Indeed, efforts to maintain this institution were considered crucial by some participants especially with the rise of genetic engineering, and the possibility of test-tube factories in the not so distant future.  Indeed, while more formal visioning workshops with technocratic experts examine scientific variables (such as the nature of future populations or income levels or possibilities of global catestrophes)[25], these students asked, “will I have children? How many? How will I spend my time with them?”  Issues of food/work etc were not as important as the personal nature of one’s family.

This of course should be understood in the context of the age of the respondents. Most likely, as they age and have families, this group will find itself drawn to the organic/community scenario.

Celebrating a Plastic Future:

However, other participants believed that the new technologies would be dominant and instead of resisting them we should rejoice. We should celebrate in artificial intelligence, plastic surgery, gene enhancement creating a Plastic Europe. Anonymity in fact gives freedom from other; it allows the individual to express herself, while community and family suppress the individual. The organic/community scenario, they believed, was reflective of the agricultural era – a time when individuals, especially women, did not have rights.

The new technologies as well promise great wealth. Indeed some argued that far more important than family life was single life. It gave choice; it was not steeped in outdated institutions such as marriage. Europe was flexible and it should remain so when it came to formal relations.

However, behind these preferred futures was the reality of disaster.

One participant argued that oil reserves would certainly run out, and Europe would quickly decline, while Africa, with its plentitude of sun, and eventually solar energy,  would rise. Mass unemployment in the context of Castle Europe – keep the barbarians out – was the likely future. AIDS, Ebola, and many other disasters loomed ahead. Nuclear technology could also lead to serious problems and new forms of energy were needed.  Unless alternative forms of energy were developed, the future was bleak.

However, a last perspective was that of technology transforming the future in a positive manner. The new technologies could create the possibility for a network instead of national identity. They allow creativity to grow, and along with more spiritual views of what it means to be human, let humans transcend their narrow limitations.  What Europe could offer was its multilingual focus, its vision of a multicultural society.  Food futures, in this scenario, were likely to be focused on diversity, that is, space for the organic, space for the industrial super market model and space for the genetically modified model.  No one model of how to farm, what to eat and who to eat with would become hegemonic. Social movements and the state (through electoral politics) would reduce the power of corporations. Corporations would as well be influenced through consumer spending, which more and would be focused on alternatives to the current shopping center, “food magically appearing in aisles” model.

These scenarios are echoed by Richard Eckersley in his research: Eckersley writes that young people: “expect to see new technologies further used to entrench and concentrate power and privilege: for example, they were almost twice as likely to believe that governments would use new technologies to watch and regulate people more as they were that these technologies would empower people and strengthen democracy. They want to see new technologies used to help create closer-knit communities of people living a sustainable. [26] This is at essence a mixture of the green/sustainable and transformational future and points to the fact that not all young people are experiencing cognitive dissonance – that many understand the system, and find strategies to work with it without being subverted by it.

These issues are not only European. For example, in a similarly structured  visioning workshop in Taiwan, the following emerged as preferred futures.

2. Taiwan in Global Futures –   Taiwanese Students at Tamkang University, Tamsui, Taiwan, May 1999.

One group imagined a globalized Taiwan with each citizen being super-rich, with their own airplane (the globalist artificial society). Another group imagined a softer, slower, organic future where farming was crucial (the communicative-inclusive). Technology linked them globally but there was no email imperative. Quality of life issues were as crucial as wealth issues. The China/Taiwan issue would be resolved by both entering a supernational federation where nation did not matter any more.

This latter scenario was quite surprising to older participants (one saying that it was a dangerous vision for the nation).  However, it can be explained by the fact that this younger new age-cohort do not have the memory of fleeing China, nor with the poverty of 50 years ago. As with their western counter parts, the have development/science and technology fatigue, and desire a far different life – a green, spiritual future.

5. VALUES AND BEHAVIOR

While these are exemplary case studies via visioning workshops, interestingly we find isomorphic results from Paul Ray’s and Sherry Ruth Anderson’s  study on Cultural Creatives.[27]

Arguing that the best single predictor of real behavior  are values, they divide Americans into three value groups. The first are the moderns. “The simplest way  to understand today’s Moderns is to see that they are the people who accept the commercialized urban-industrial world as the  obvious right way to live. They’re not looking for alternatives,” say Ray and Anderson.[28] They are committed to the “get on the train of progress view. Worldviews are generally those that others have since they believe that their definition of reality is the norm.

In contrast are the Traditionalists. They generally yearn for community, for small town life, traditional notions of nature. These notions are strongly nested in patriarchy, nationalism, and traditional texts (in the US, the Bible). One can easily see that this category is exportable throughout the world. In Taiwan, for example, to Confucian KMT nationalists. Or in Pakistan to the leading Islamic parties (focused on the Quran, here). All are equally distrustful of foreigners, desire to regulate sexual behavior and traditional gender roles.

They would likely reject the Communicative-Inclusive vision of the future (and of the course the Artificial Society) and prefer not a Back to Nature but what we might call, An Imagined Past, when the world was defined by nations and capital and labour mobility was restricted.

Ray and Anderson as well offer a third value orientation, where the believe lie the seeds of a cultural revolution – the Cultural Creatives. They:

·                    love nature and are deeply concerned about its destruction;

·                    are strongly aware of the problems of the whole planet and  want to see action to curb them, such as limiting economic growth;

·                    would pay more taxes or higher prices if you knew the money  would go to clean up the environment and stop global warming;

·                    give a lot of importance to developing and maintaining  relationships;

·                    place great importance on helping other people;

·                    volunteer for one or more good causes;

·                    care intensely about psychological or spiritual development;

·                    see spirituality and religion as important in your own life but are also concerned about the role of the religious Right in politics;

·                    want more equality for women at work and want more women leaders in business and politics;

·                    are concerned about violence and the abuse of women and children everywhere on Earth;

·                    want politics and government to emphasize children’s education and well being, the rebuilding of neighborhoods and communities, and creation of an ecologically sustainable future;

·                    are unhappy with both left and right in politics and want a new way that is not the mushy middle;

·                    tend to be optimistic about the future and distrust the cynical and pessimistic view offered by the media;

·                    want to be involved in creating a new and better way of life in their country;

·                    are concerned about what big corporations are doing in the name of profit: exploiting poor countries, harming the environment, downsizing;

·                    have  finances and spending under control and are not concerned about overspending;

·                    dislike the modern emphasis on success, on “making it,” on wealth and luxury goods;

·                    like people and places that are exotic and foreign, and enjoy experiencing and learning about other ways of life.

Along with these characteristics, Ray and Anderson believe that [29]

cultural creatives in their personal lives, they seek authenticity — meaning they want their actions to be  consistent with what they believe and say. They are also intent on finding wholeness, integration, and community. Cultural Creatives are quite clear that they do not want to live in an alienated, disconnected world. Their approach to health is preventive and holistic, though they do not reject modern  medicine. In their work, they may try to go beyond earning a living to having “right livelihood” or a vocation.

Their vision is consistent with the Communicative-Inclusive vision of the future. While we would assert here that this is merely the alter-ego of the West, Ray and Anderson believe that the cultural creatives represent the future, what others have called the Promise of the Coming Dark Age, or what Johan Galtung has called the Rise of the Middle Ages.[30] The Middle ages where, at least in the first part, about recovering the community lost in the nation-empire building of the Roman Empire. The Middle-Ages were fare more distribution than growth oriented. Of course, the vision of the cultural creatives is community but not with patriarchy or other types of feudal hierarchy. It is a response to modernity and postmodernity and not a reaction to it.

If we then see the West in historical phase shifts – from expansion to contraction (both being natural phases of the West) then we can image the future of the West become far more diverse, far more concerned with meaning, community, gender fairness, smaller. Does this mean then that expansion will then come from other civilization? Or is it possible as Ashis Nandy has argued for the creation of a gaia of civilizations.[31] That is, as the West contracts – finally understanding the Indic perspective that each civilization is incomplete in itself and needs the other –  the garden metaphor of a multitude of civilizations in eco-relationship with other may take root.

Instead of GM foods, organic foods might flourish. Instead of only growth, distribution might again become important. With a more balanced world system, especially in terms of gender relations, population would find a steady level (women would fine their economic and social power from themselves instead of through male children), and instead of the meal-in-a-pill, the image would be of a sharing of foods on community table. But what of the carnivores?

6. STRUCTURE OF THE FUTURE

It is the question of the carnivores that leads us to the next section. Essentially this is an issue of power. In the Gaian model – diverse but generally non-violent, reality created through shared negotiation – vegetarians modes of social and economic organization are far more likely. Vegetarian modes are softer on the Earth, allow for far greater production, and are non-violent. The values behind this perspective is one of self-reliance (lack of dependence on giant corporatist anonymous systems). But what to do with those that differ, what of the giant global system. Are there any possibilities that it will transform? Said, differently, can the West genuinely transform?

Thus, what is often lost in these important attempts to understand the future are the structural constraints and structural possibilities.  In this sense, few scenarios go beyond the dictates of the present (trend extrapolation) and the dictates of vision (aspiration scenarios).

Structural approaches explore the parameters of the possible future. What is probable, not because of current trends (although these are often defined by structural forces) or agency or but because of real historical limits.

If we begin to explore the long term, from a macrohistorical view, there are range of possibilities that define the shape of the long term.  In this essay, we focus on four factors.  We add Sarkar’s theory of varna [32]with Sorokin’s notion of super cultural systems[33] – already presented – with Wallerstein[34] and Eisler.[35] Wallerstein’s is based on class and Eisler’s is based on gender, as derived from her theory of Patriarchy.

Simply stated – and glossing quite a bit of history – there have been four structures.

1.                  World Empire – victory of warrior historical power – coercive/protective – sensate – patriarchy – ksattriya

2.                  World Church – victory of intellectual power – normative – ideational – patriarchy – vipra

3.                  Mini-systems – small, self-reliant cultural systems – ideational –androgny – shudra

4.                  World economy – globalizing economics along national divisions – sensate – vaeshyan

The question is, which structure is likely to dominate in the next 25 to 50 years? Can a new structure emerge? And of course, what does that mean for the futures of agriculture, food and rural communities?

Option 1 of a world empire is unlikely given countervailing powers – given that there is more than one hegemon in the world system and given that there is a lack of political legitimacy for recolonization, for simply conquering other nations. The human rights discourse while allowing intervention in failing nations still severely delimits nation to nation conquest.

Option 2, a world church, is also unlikely given that there are many civilizations (from Muslim to Christian to Shinto to modern secular) vying for minds and hearts. While the millennium has evoked passions associated with the end of man, and the return of Jesus, Amida Buddha or the Madhi, the religious pluralism that is our planet is unlike to be swayed toward any one religion. In this the Gaia model is possible.

Option 3 – 10000 nations/communities –  is possible because of potential decentralizing impact of telecommunication systems and the aspiration by many for self-reliant ecological communities electronically linked. However, small systems tend to be taken over by warrior power, intellectual/religious power or larger economic globalizing propensities.  In the context of a globalized world economy, self-reliance is difficult to maintain. Moreover, centralizing forces and desire for power at the local level limits the democratic/small is beautiful impulse.

Option 4, the world economy, has been the stable for the last few hundred years but it now appears that a bifurcation to an alternative system or to collapse (and reconquest by the warriors) is possible.  Crises in environment, governance, legitimacy all reduce the strength of the world system.

Revolutions from above (global institutions from UN, WTO, IMF) and regional institutions (APEC) and revolutions from below (social movements and nongovernmental organizations), revolutions from technology (cyber democracy, cyber communities and cyber lobbying) and revolutions from capital (globalization) make the nation far more porous as well as the chaotic interstate system that underlies it.[36]

However, none of these problems can be solved in isolation thus leading to the strengthening of global institutions, even for localist parties, who now realize that for their local agendas to succeed they must become global political parties, globalizing themselves, and in turn moving away from their ideology of localism and self-reliance.

Thus what we are seeing even in the local is a necessity to move to the global. There is no other way. Again, this tallies with the cultural creatives as well as with the modernists (but not the traditionalists). The issue, of course, is which globalism? The technocratic version or the gaian version? Can there be a world system that is localized?

Choices

For the West there are three choices as the world economy model falters: (1) Import labor, open the doors of immigration and become truly multicultural and younger. Those nations who do that will thrive financially (the US and England, for example), those who cannot because of localist politics will find themselves slowly descending down the ladder (Germany and Japan, for example).

As the West becomes more multicultural, many types of farming futures  will result. Some industrial, some very small scale (the recreation of suburban neighborhoods by recent immigrants who are in search of land and their traditional local self-reliance). Indeed, the aged might find purpose through small farming, joining recent immigrants in city plots.

The second choice is dramatically increase productivity through new technologies, that is, fewer people producing more goods (or a mix of immigration and email outsourcing). While the first stage is the convergence of computing and telecommunications technology (the Net), nano-technology is the end dream of this. Farming and food, as mentioned earlier, become swallowed by the technocratic discourse, the meal-in-a-pill.

The third choice is the reengineering of the population – creating humans in hospitals. This is the end game of the genetics revolution. The first phase is: genetic prevention. Phase two is genetic enhancement (finding ways to increase intelligence, typing second, language capacity) and phase three is genetic recreation, the creation of new species, super and sub races. In this future, the goal will be to design humans who do not need to eat, or where food is not a problem, or where food is totally recyclable (ie. what you eat, you excrete and then eat again – after the nano-bots clean up the waste).

THE NON-WEST

Which future is structurally likely then? The technocratic-one train vision wishes for a globalized world constricted by  nations-states and Western culture as the backdrop. They will likely get the globalized world but the cost to them will be a softer Western culture, a transformed Western culture. The communicative-inclusive hope for a world of communities – self-reliance, ecological, electronically linked, in gender and global partnership – without any world government system. [37]

Structurally, however, this is next to impossible since it is likely that they will get the vision but not without a global government system that sets new rules that constrict the power of the carnivores (the question will be will they remain carnivores, or will moral and spiritual development have evolved to new levels).

We are thus likely to get a global world system that is informed by the alter-ego of the West. But where is the Non-West in all this, except as providing the seeds for the renewal of the West. We now for the rest of this essay focus on the responses of the non-West. The two Non-Wests, ego and alter-ego.

In contrast to the West, the non-West follows a different pattern. The ego of the non-West has now been constructed by the West, such that as much as the non-West resists Westernization, it embraces it, becoming even more Western than the West, as, for example, Japan or Malaysia. This is the classic love-hate relationship. The non-West own future trajectory having been altered by the West, it finds itself resisting and desiring to be like the West.  Resistance comes in the form of fundamentalist movements, that challenge Western power through acts of terror. At another level, this is expressed at international UN/WTO- type meetings where issues of fairness, sovereignty, access to technologies, national debts are discussed. With the memory of colonization fresh, redress is the key issue. But as with the Roman Empire, where the barbarians attack not to remove Rome but to become even more Roman, we find Asian and African nations striving to become even more Western – quicker, more technological, more commodified, and more exploitive of women, nature and labor.

Thus we see national policy far more pro-big farming, landlords, agri-business and far readier to speculate on the world futures markets (and ready to complain when they lose  as a conspiracy against Asia).

The Alter-Ego:

But of far more interest is the alter-ego. This comes across in two ways: first as traditional, ancient indigenous knowledge, generally, focused not on the Western utopia (the perfection of society) but on the Indic and Sinic eupsychia – the cultivation and perfection of the self. Second, as attempts to not limit their understandings at local levels but to make new claims for the universal. While the former is most conducive to cosmological exchange and indeed forges a partnership between the West and Non-West (Gandhism, Tibetan Buddhism, Zen) the latter is far more problematic for the West, since it challenges the West’s universalism.

8. LOCAL AND INTEGRATED FARMING

In terms of the first model of traditional knowledge (return to pre-contact Asia or Africa), the implications for farming include the following. The general model is one focused on self-sufficiency, water conversation, afforestation, international coordination and cooperation of water and tree regimes, as much as possible organic fertilizers (with limited use of chemical fertilizers), the creation of cottage industries for local people, alternative energy production, and local research center. While it appears to be a pre-industrial model, the use of Net technologies for sharing information on the local, allows a new model for global development. We quote extensively from the P.R. Sarkar’s classic work, Ideal Farming [38]as an exemplary text. His system of integrated farming as a backbone for a new development model includes the following:

·                    Organic farming

·                    Afforestation using scientific and local knowledge in terms of which trees should be planted first (fast growing trees such as cassuarina, sisir (Albezzia Lebbeck), sissoo (Dalbergia), red sandalwood, etc. and second (slow growing trees such as teak which also provides green cover and can be harvested after 30 years or so.

The fast growing trees can be cut after three years, providing an additional source of income for local power.

·                    For afforestation, surface water must be conserved. This is best done by creating small-scale lakes and ponds. Along the lakes and ponds, Sarkar suggests the types of plants that should be used around lakes .Thee include slope plants (pineapple, asparagus, aloe vera, etc), Boundary plants (palm trees, vegetables and fruits), Wire plants (creeping vegetables around a brick wall with a wire fence to keep out animals), Aquatic plants and Surface plants.

·                    Riverside plantations to prevent floods, conserve water, regulate the flow of water in rivers, and keep the soil moist and fertile.

·                    River projects must not be left to one country alone, an international governance system must be set up to ensure the coordination of water conservation and development

·                    Planting of medicinal crops based on the Ayurvedic system

·                    The Maximum utilization of land through crop rotation, crop mixing and supplementary cropping

·                    A range of energy projects including, solar, bio-gas, small scale hydro-electric, bio-mass power, and of course thermal power from coal and other fossil fuels.

While Sarkar, and others such as Aurobindo, provide details suggestions the overall point is that agriculture cannot be relegated to a side-show. Decentralization of the economy is crucial for well-being. This is contrast to the ego of Asia which is focused on economic development that is city-based. The underlying metaphor is of the streets of London town  paved with gold. Cities represent economic growth,[39] while rurality represents stupidity and backwardness.  The city is modern and Western, the village is the shameful face of the non-West. For secular modernized Asians, however, the village represents traditional feudal society. Sarkar’s model is about transforming the village economy, modernizing it through selective science, but generally using indigenous knowledge of greening the environment. He has developed a new model focused on creating small self-reliant, ecological, spiritual, knowledge-intensive communities throughout the world. This has been crystallized at Ananda Nagar, Bengal, the city of Bliss, wherein the alter-ego of the non-West can flourish.

9. SARKAR’S VISION OF THE FUTURE

The Universal dimensions of Sarkar come not from the alternative farming regime or his focus on self-reliance and community building (which is a common theme throughout Asia and Africa) but from the alternative worldview that shapes it. We now in detail investigate this view, concluding with what it means for the future of farming and food.

Sarkar gives us a new map in which to frame self, society, other, nature and the transcendental. One way to think about this is to imagine Sarkar’s scheme as if it was a library.  Instead of floors on government documents, the humanities, social sciences and science (as in conventional libraries), he redesigns the real around the following orderings of knowledge, floors if you will: Tantra (Intuitional Science); Brahmacakra (cosmology, the evolutionary link between matter and mind); Bio-Psychology (the individual body and mind); Prout (specifically, the social cycle, economic growth and just/rational distribution, and the sadvipra, or spiritual leadership); Coordinated Cooperation (gender partnership in history and the future); Neo-Humanism (a new ethics); and, Microvita (the new sciences and health). Certainly a library as constituted by Sarkar’s categories would be dramatically different from current libraries.

At heart, Sarkar’s alternative worldview is about transformation. Sarkar’s strategies of transformation include:

·        Individual transformation through the Tantric process of meditation and the enhancement of individual health through yoga practices that balance one’s hormonal system;

·        Moral transformation through social service and care for the most vulnerable;

·        Economic transformation through the theory of Prout and samaj or people’s movements, as well as through self-reliant master units or ecological centres (As with Ananda Nagar, mentioned above);

·        Political transformation through the articulation of the concept of the sadvipra, the spiritual-moral leader, and the creation of such leaders through struggle with the materialistic capitalistic system and immoral national/local leaders;

·        Cultural transformation through the creation of new holidays and celebrations that contest traditional nationalistic sacred time-space places (such as childrens’ day) and through the recovery of the world’s spiritual cultures as well as through the establishment of Third World social movements that contest the organisational hegemony of Western organisations;

·        Language transformation through the elucidation of a new encyclopedia of the Bengali language and through working for linguistic rights for the world’s minorities;

·        Religious transformation through upholding the spiritual reality that unites us all while contesting patriarchal and dogmatic dimensions of the world’s religions;

·        Scientific transformation by rethinking science as noetic science as well as laying bare the materialistic and instrumentalist prejudices of conventional science; and

·        Temporal transformation by envisioning long range futures and designing strategies for centuries and future generations to come.

For the purposes of this article, two concepts are crucial. They are (1) Neo-humanism and (2) Microvita.

Sarkar’s theory of Neo-Humanism aims to relocate the self from ego (and the pursuit of individual maximization), from family (and the pride of genealogy), from geo-sentiments (attachments to land and nation), from socio-sentiments (attachments to class, race and community), from humanism (the human being as the centre of the universe) to Neo-Humanism (love and devotion for all, inanimate and animate, beings of the universe).  These can be called windows of compassion “which determine the set of beings identified as sufficiently similar to self to deserve equal consideration.”[40] The challenge is to expand our window to include all that is.

Paramount here is the construction of self in an ecology of reverence for life not a modern/secular politics of cynicism.  Spiritual devotion to the universe is ultimately the greatest treasure that humans have; it is this treasure that must be excavated and shared by all living beings.

Neo-humanism is essential to creating  prama. This means that plans and animals as well have existence rights. Writes Sarkar:

The biological disparity between animal and plant – that disparity must not be there.  Just as a human being wants to survive, a pigeon also wants to survive – similarly a cow or a tree also wants to survive.  Just as my life is dear to me, so the lives of other created beings are also equally dear to them.  It is the birthright of human beings to live in this world, and it is the birthright of the animal world and plant world also to remain on this earth.[41]

What this means is ensuring that animals and plants are not treated cruelly, that vegetarianism becomes the dominant food regime.

Writes Diver on the impact of Neo-humanism on farming.

The adoption of Neo-Humanism in modern agriculture will require a shift in sentiment and an alternative agriculture scenario wherein animals continue to play an essential role in both economical and ecological terms, but are not simply raised for slaughter. Positive examples of a Neo-Humanistic animal agriculture are: pastures used solely to raise livestock for slaughter are planted into woody and herbaceous biomass crops; animal manures supply biofertilizers and composts; weeds and brush are controlled by grazing instead of herbicides; animal products (dairy, wool, and eggs) are obtained without harming the animal; other animal products (leather products and organic fertilizers like feather, fish, bone, and blood meal) are obtained when animals die from old age.[42]

Of course, for Sarkar – and this is the problem from a globalist Western view – initiated numerous social and political movements to realize these goals. PCAP (Prevention of Cruelty to Animals and Plants) was started in 1978 and the Universal Proutist Farmer’s Federation (UPFF) in 1966. By universal, he means not based on any one nation or planet. These are part of his grander political movement known as Prout – the progressive theory of utilization. Prout is a global political party, and at the same time, it is a decentralized social movement, focused on self-reliant economics, gender partnership, neo-humanist ecology, among other characteristics. It intends to challenge both capitalism (in terms of distribution) as well as other models (for not, interestingly focusing enough on providing  basic needs and maximum amenities – that is, increasing real per capita income).

The implications for the future of farming and food are many. First, farming is nested in an alternative social-political model. Second, farming is placed in an alternative model of what it means to be human and not-human. Third, farming is seen as central for national and global development. Fourth, farming is essential for the non-West to realize its potential and develop indigenous sciences. Fifth, food can be divided into the following.[43]

·        Food for health (vegetarian food),

·        Food for conscience, ethical foods, non-violence for the creatures eaten, their living conditions,

·        Food for Social Justice – for the creation of a just society, where basic needs are met and there is increased purchasing capacity, ie food that challenges structural violence and poverty, and

·        Food for the spirit (food that enhances one’s meditation and other spiritual practices through stimulating the bodies inner chakras (or physical/psychic/spiritual centres) and

·        Food for the Future (food that is focused on the vibration of who made the meal as well as ultimately food that is synthetically made).

10. THE MICROVITA REVOLUTION

But perhaps the most interesting – and out of the box worldview – is Microvita.

Microvita is the organizing concept that provides a link between the spiritual and the physical. Microvita are the software of consciousness just as atoms are the hardware, Diver argues. They are both ideas and the material, what many have called spiritual vibration in colloquial language.  Positive microvita enhance one’s own health and can create the conditions for a better society.  Indeed, they can be active in social evolution. They are related to one’s thoughts but are also external, that is, microvita move around the universe shaping ideas and the material world.  They can be used by spiritually evolved individuals to spread ideas throughout the planet, indeed, universe.  Microvita are not dead matter but alive, and can be used for spiritual betterment. Microvita provide a link between ideational and materialistic worldviews. They help explain the placebo effect in medicine (through attracting positive microvita) as well as psychic healing (the transfer of microvita from one person to another).  However, the concept of microvita still remains theoretical. They have yet to be empirically verified, even if there are a few hundred individuals practicing microvita meditation.

In terms of the impact on farming and food, Diver is instructive. He writes.

Two broad areas in which microvita research has immediate promise in agriculture are:  the interaction between microvita and biofertilizers, and formulations of chemical fertilizers for specific purposes. Biofertilizers such as animal manure, compost, and biogas sludge are a basic component of eco-agriculture systems like organic and biodynamic farming.  Biofertilizers provide humus and increase biological activity in the soil, thus resulting in better soil tilth, improved water infiltration and water-holding capacity, and enhanced resistance to crop pests.  However, in addition to these scientifically-documented benefits, farmers that use biofertilizers commonly ascribe a subtle ‘vital’ quality to their soils and produce.

Microvita thus provides the theory for observations that certain types of crops – farmed properly – enhance the life force of crops.

According to Sarkar:[44]

There are two types of fertilizer – organic and inorganic.  When fertilizers are used, bacteria is also being used indirectly.  This bacteria functions in two ways – one is positive and the other is negative.  When you utilize biofertilizer bacteria, that is organic fertilizers, the function of the bacteria will only be positive.  You should start practical research into positive microvita from the study of biofertilizers and their positive functions.

Thus crops can be enhanced through the application of positive microvita. This could lead to increased health of those who consume the microvita enhanced foods. Clearly a different approach than the genetically altered model.

Writes Diver:[45]

Sarkar provided two examples whereby differences in microvita makeup can bring about qualitative changes in crops.  The first is jute in Bengal.  Although the seed source may be the same, when jute is raised in Bengal there is a clear difference in the quality of jute fibres between the districts of Maymansingha, Jalpaiguri, and Murshidabad.  The reason for this difference is variation in the number of microvita.  The second is potato.  Even when the same type of fertilizer is used, the rate of production and taste of potatoes between plots may not be uniform in all cases.  The cause lies in the number and denomination of microvita.  In this instance the difference in the number of microvita in oxygen accounts for the contrast.

And:[46]

Other research topics in agriculture where the subtle manipulation of microvita may produce interesting results include: microbial inoculants for composts and soils, biodynamic preparations, herbal medicines and botanical extracts, specialized foliar fertilizers, homeopathic remedies for farm animals, and seed treatments.

Microvita research can also play a role in understanding differences between chemical fertilizers. Fertilizers from two different mineral deposits may have the same elements but differ in terms of microvita. The common expression, “nitrogen is nitrogen is nitrogen” is thus foundationally challenged.

Clearly, if microvita theory is true or if it helps explain the vitalism paradigm used for example in places like Findhorn, it could revolutionize agriculture. What it means that while agriculture and industry are developed in terms the understanding of the interactions at the material level, we are undeveloped at understanding the spiritual level, and how the spiritual level, interacts with the material level.

However, while microvita agriculture is dramatically different from gene modified agriculture, it is also similar. Just as GM foods promise improve health (by changing the structure of food) so does microvita agriculture. One goes from industrial foods to GM foods to Nano-food, concluding with a meal-in-a-pill to even possible the redesign of humans so energy comes in and out differently.  The other goes from organic food to energetic food to spiritual food.One takes materialism to its extreme, the other takes spirituality to its extreme. Both foundationally change evolution. Indeed, Sarkar imagines that humans will generally take over the duties of nature. However, he is gravely concerned about the politics of current science and the morality it operates under. A microvita science promises revolution (for example unleashing new forms of energy for galactic travel) in every possible sphere, but ultimately microvita is about inner happiness, bliss.

Is Microvita theory then the alter-ego of the Non-West? This is unlikely, rather, it appears to be an attempt to move the discourse forward and create the basis for a planetary civilization that has elements of the universal/globalist dimension as well as the communicative/inclusive vision of the future. Microvita starts with the local and the community but then moves far beyond offering not a reaction to modern science but a model of a new science.

However, most agriculturalists in the West would avoid, indeed, dismiss, such a discussion (no evidence of it and the theory is based on non-Western ideas, that is, it is culturally too dissimilar to understand). But if the West’s alter-ego phase expands, if the cultural creatives continue to grow as a group, then the ideas of Sarkar, and others, could become not words and world from the edge, but the dominant way we see the world.

Meal-in-a-pill or pass the microvita salad?


[1] Johan Galtung, “The future: a forgotten dimension,” in H Ornauer, H Wiberg, A Sicinki and J Galtung, eds, Images of the World in the Year 2000 (Atlantic Highlands, NJ: Humanities press, 1976).
[2] For more on youth futures, see Jennifer Gidley and Sohail Inayatullah, eds. Youth Futures: Comparative Research and Transformative Visions. Westport, CT., Praeger, 2001 (forthcoming).
[3] Johan Galtung, “Who got the year 2000 right – the people or the experts,” WFSF Futures Bulletin, 25, 4, (2000), 6.
[4] See Ziauddin Sardar, Thomas Khun and the Science Wars.Cambridge Books, Icon, 2000.
[5] Speech at Humanity 3000 Symposium. Seattle Washington. September 23-26th. See for details on this: Sohail Inayatullah, “Science, Civilization and Global Ethics: Can we understand the next 1000 years?” Journal of Futures Studies (November 2000). www.futurefoundation.org
[6] And clearly the unemployment figures for youth are no laughing matter, generally hovering around the 40-50% mark throughout the world, worse in poorer nations. In New Zealand, based on 1996 statistics, for example, 42.7% of the unemployed were between the ages of 15-25 while this group makes up 21.2% of the population. And as in most areas, minority groups are hit the hardest. In New Zealand, for example, maori and pacific islander youth have twice the unemployment rate as compared to Caucasian youth. See: www.jobsletter.org.nz.
[7] See, Ziauddin Sardar, Postmodernism and the Other: The New Imperialism of Western Culture. London, Pluto Press, 1998.
[8] www.who.org, See, World Health Organization, The Global Burden of Disease, 1996. http://www.who.int/.   See, Caring for Mental Health in the Future. Seminar report commissioned by the Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios. Kluver Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1992, 315.  See as well: The Global Movement for Active Ageing. http://www.who.org/ageing/global_movement/index.html.
[9] Johan Galtung,  On the Last 2,500 years in Western History, and some remarks on the Coming 500,” in The New Cambridge Modern History, Companion Volume, ed. Peter Burke (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979).
[10] Ibn Khaldun, The Muqaddimah (An Introduction to History). Translated by N.J. Dawood. (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1981). Fifth printing.
[11] Ajay Singh,” A Foretaste of the Food for Tomorrow,” Asiaweek (August 20-27, 2001), 72.
[12] Ibid., 73.
[13] Pitirim Sorokin, Social and Cultural Dynamics. Boston, Porter Sargent, 1970.
[14] See, Sohail Inayatullah, Situating Sarkar: Tantra, Macrohistory and Alternative Futures. Maleny, Australia and Ananda Nagar, Gurkul Publications, 1999.
[15] Doug Rushkoff, Children of Chaos. New York: Harper Collins, 1996.
[16] For more on this, see, Sohail Inayatullah, ed., The Views of Futurists: Volume 4 of the Knowledge Base of  Futures Studies. Melbourne, Foresight International, 2001. CD-ROM. Also see, Sohail Inayatullah and Paul Wilman, eds,. Futures Studies: Methods, Emerging Issues and Civilizational Visions. Brisbane, Prosperity Press, 1998.
[17] For more on these, see Sohail Inayatullah, “Structural Possibilities of Globalization,” Development (December, 2000).
[18] Ajay Singh, op cit, 73.
[19] See, P.R. Sarkar, Prama. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1987.
[20] Steve Diver, “Farming the Future,” in Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Fitzgerald, eds. Transcending Boundaries: P.R. Sarkar’s Theories of Individual and Social Transformation. Maleny, Australia and Ananda Nagar, India, Gurukul Publications, 1999.
[21] Ibid., 73.
[22] The texts are in the thousands now but among the best are the works of Deepak Chopra. The most scientifically respectable are the studies by Dean Ornish.
[23] For more on this, see, Sohail Inayatullah, “Your computer, Your conscience,” The Age (August 26, 2000), 6.
[24] The first case study is based on a sample of ten students who attended a month-long intensive course on civilization and the future. The course was held June 1999 at the Centre for European, University of Trier, Germany. After a four week introduction to critical and multicultural futures studies, the following scenarios emerged.
[25] See, for example, Sohail Inayatullah, “Futures Visions of Southeast Asia: Some Early Warning Signals,” Futures, 27,6, July/August (1995), 681-688;
[26] Richard Eckersley, “Portraits of Youth. Understanding young people’s relationship with the future,” Futures (Italics) 29 (1997): 247.
[27] Paul Ray and Sherry Ruth Anderson, The Cultural Creatives. New York, Harmony Books, 2000. See: www.culturalcreatives.org.  See review on the Net by Peter Montague.
[28] From the review by Peter Montague.
[29] Ibid.
[30] Johan Galtung, op cit.
[31] See Ashis Nandy and Giri Deshingkar, “The Futures of Cultures: An Asian Perspective,” in Eleonora Masini and Yogesh Atal, eds., The Futures of Asian Cultures. Bangkok, Unesco, 1993.
[32] For Sarkar, the future is contoured by Sarkar’s notion of four types of power (worker, warrior, intellectual and merchant or chaotic/service; cooercive/protective; religious/intellectual; and, remunerative).
[33] For Sorokin, the future is based on on culture and is derived from his ideas of  three types of systems (sensate focused on materialism, ideational focused on religion and integrated, balancing earth and heaven).
[34]  Immanuel Wallerstein, “World System and Civilization,” Development: Seeds of Change (1/2, 1986).
[35] Riane Eisler, Sacred Pleasure. San Francisco, HarperCollins, 1996.
[36] As mentioned earlier, A countervailing force are revolutions from the past – the imagined past of purity and sovereignty (economic sovereignty, racial purity, and idealized good societies), which (1) seeks to strengthen the nation state (to either fight mobility of individuals –immigration – or mobility of capital – globalization – or mobility of ideas – cultural imperialism and (2) seeks to create new nation states (ethno-nationalism).[37]Indeed, this is true across cultures. In one workshop in Malaysia, Islamic leaders (mullahs, scholars, youth, government servants) asserted that their preferred future for the Islamic world was based on the following:1.        self-reliance ecological communities electronically linked

2.        a global ummah (world community)

3.        gender parternship

4.     alternative, non-capitalist economics

[38] P.R. Sarkar, Ideal Farming – Part 2. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1990.
[39] This has come across clearly in futures workshops in Asia. One particular  in Bangkok found that the issue was not just too many cars and the resultant pollution but the entire big-city outlook. Central to this outlook is the degradation of the rural.
[40] Andrew Nicholson, “Food for the Body, Mind and Spirit of All Being: A Neo-Humanist Perspective,” in Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Fitzgerald, Transcending Boundaries, 197.
[41] .Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar, “Renaissance in All the Strata of Life”,  Prajina Bharatii (March, 1986), 3-6.
[42] Diver, op cit, p. 211.
[43] Andrew Nicholson, op cit, pages 194-207.
[44] Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar, Ideal Farming:  Part 2, 9.
[45] Diver, op cit, 220.
[46] Ibid.

Terror and World System Futures (2001)

Sohail Inayatullah[1]

The events of September 11, 2001 should be seen in global human terms as a crime against humanity and not as a war against anyone. This is not only because those in the WTC come from many nationalities [2] but as well issues of solidarity and efficacy of response move us in that direction.. In this sense, the framework for dealing with terrorism must be from a strengthened World Court (in the context of a reformed United Nations), just as those responsible for Rwanda and Srebrenica have been dealt with (or will be dealt with).[3] That international law has not prevailed in this conflict tells us a great deal of the nature of the world system (it is still strategy and power that define and not the rule of law or higher culture). That he has not done so reinforces the nation-state and moves us away from world law, and, indeed, world peace. Years later we will look back at this costly mistake in dismay – what could have been and the path that was not followed. 

While Bush should be commended for the search for allies in the Islamic world, seeking an indictment within a world court framework would not have only granted increased legitimacy – for a campaign that has been increasingly seen like vengeance, (not to be mention economically motivated), and not justice – but created a precedence for the trial of future terrorists (of cyber, biological, airline and other types). 

The equation that explains terror is: perceived injustice, nationalism/religious-ism (including scientism and patriarchy), plus an asymmetrical world order.  One crucial note: explanation is analytically different from justification. These acts, as all acts of mass violence, can not be justified. 

The perceived injustice part of the equation can be handled by the USA and other OECD nations in positions of world power. This means authentically dealing with Israel/Palestine as well as the endless sanctions against Iraq. Until these grievances are met there can be no way forward.  Concretely this means making Jerusalem an international city, giving the Palestinians a state, and ensuring that there are peace keepers on every block in Israel-Palestine. It means threatening to stop all funding to both parties (the 10$ billion yearly from the USA to Israel, for example, and from Saudi Arabia and others to the Palestinian authority). It means listening to the Other and moving away from strict good/evil essentialisms, as Tony Blair has attempted to do in the Middle-East (or more appropriately South-West Asia).  Dualistic language only reinforces that which it seeks to dispel, continuing the language of the Crusades, with both civilizations not seeing that they mirror each other.  Indeed, at a deeper level, we need to move to a new level of identity. As  Phil Graham of the University of Queensland writes: “We are the Other. We have become alienated from our common humanity, and  the attribute, hope, image, that might save us – is  the “globalisation” of  humanity.”[4] 

However, Bush giving increased legitimacy to Ariel Sharon once again strikes most of the world as hypocritical. While Arafat has already lost any legitimacy he may have had as a leader of the Palestinian people, at least he is not under likely indictment for war crimes committed in Lebanon. For Bush to cozy up to one war criminal and attempt to eliminate others (Mullah Oman and Bin Laden) worsens an already terrible situation. 

MACROHISTORY 

From a macrohistorical and structural perspective, the USA is a capitalist nation with military might buttressing it. Osama Bin Laden and others are capitalists with military strength. Both are globalized, both see the world in terms of us/them, both use ideas for their position (extremists drawing on Islam; American intellectuals using linear development theory). Both are strong male. The USA builds twin towers, evoking male dominating architecture (as argued by Ivana Milojevic and Philip Daffara, of the University of the Sunshine Coast[5]) and the terrorists use the same phallic symbol – the airplane – to bring it down. Boys with toys with terrifying results for us all.  And with over 50% of Americans believing that Arab Americans should have special identity cards and the now defunct Taliban having legislated that hindus where special insignia on their clothes, these chilling similarities return us back to Europe sixty years ago. 

In the terms of spiral dynamics, as developed by Beck and others[6], these are both red forces (passion) fighting each other. The world is desperate for a Blue force, a higher order legal framework, to resolve the violence.  What has occurred however is the elimination of one red force by a combined effort of two other red forces, American and Northern Alliance. While the terrifying actions of the Taliban are paraded in propaganda machines throughout the world – the CNN lie machine – little mention of the Northern Alliance brutalities are trumpeted. Fortunately, there is more to this world than state power, and thus Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have focused on all the parties (but none yet on USA bombing mistakes – such as those costing the hands of Afghani children. Food packets being the same color as cluster bombs can be seen as unfortunate or as paradigmatic. While seeking indictments against US military personnel is going too far, Afghani victims of the war should have the right to legal redress, especially financial compensation. There can be no negotiation on this. Indeed, it is this fear of indictments that keeps the US away from a world court. 

Still at least at the official level, American and Western leaders have called for tolerance, for openness, for respecting Islam and muslims, for seeking terrorists, ie criminals, and not other categories. [7] Indeed, there have been legal cases against USA airlines for not allowing those of south asian and middle eastern ethnicity to board on planes.  This type of legal recourse was certainly not available to Abdul Haq, murdered by the Taliban  in late October.  Not surprisingly,  Osama Bin Laden  called  for a struggle against America and Jews (and now the United Nations), resorting to tired racist and hateful rhetoric, which in the long run will  bring little solace to those suffering – essentially the language and madness of conspiracy theory. Moreover, after the struggle against America and the Jews, who then will it be, the shias (which are already targeted by many Taliban supporters)? And then? Once the politics of exclusion begins, only ever increasing dogmatic futures can result.  Interestingly, far right wing hate groups in the USA have endorsed Osama Bin Laden’s action, arguing that the Federal Government and the world Jewish conspiracy is the problem (and as would be typical in male discourse, saying that while they agree with politics and tactics they would not desire them to marry their daughters and visa versa). 

However, Osama Bin Laden’s demand for rights for Palestinians must be heard. Like a child who is not heard, the shouting gets even louder. Or a body that is sick, getting sicker and sicker, calling attention  to the disease, and even killing the host (meaning the planet itself), unless there is some foundational and transformative change. While the USA and others prefer the chemotherapy and radiation approach to health (thus bombing appears natural, ie the USA exists in epistemological reductionism)  if we are interested in the long term, then perhaps the naturopathic  homeopathic or chiropractic might work much better. Can there be a truth and reconciliation commission?   The shouting is also getting louder as muslims are undergoing a religious renaissance, argues Riaz Hussan of Flinders University, Australia.[8] As they move toward increased religiosity, there is far less interest in extremist political positions, in those who live in the conspiracy discourse. Thus, Osama Bin Laden and other extremists find their pathways cut off, both from within the Islamic world and as well from the globalized multicultural world. Attacking old symbols of imperialism becomes the only way for them to survive. Creating new futures, new economics, new cultural texts, however, is the real challenge. 

What is especially challenging to the USA is that the demands from many muslims, including extremists, is not for money or territory but for the West (and nations claiming to be muslim) to change, to become less materialistic, more understanding of the plight of the poor, and more religious – and to return to their pre-Columbus borders. And, American public opinion appears to share this, with a majority calling for a return to a moral core, away from crass materialism (but not yet from jingoist war).  As Kevin Kelly has written, communism collapsed because the West offered something better. For extremism of the Islamic variety to collapse, more than McDonalds will have to be available.[9] 

The demands of the  West on Islamic nations generally has been the opposite: to become more materialistic, more growth-oriented in terms of the formal economy (but not more people) and more sensate, scientific – to develop.  From a macrohistorical perspective, each distorts what it means to be human by focusing on one dimension, and in extreme forms.  From an individual view, we can see how  those in the periphery develop a love-hate relationship with the center. The terrorists drinking, gambling, cavorting in strip clubs before the 11th of September shows how they  internalized what they struggled against. It also shows how Islam for them was strategic, a text that could be used to justify their own pathological worldview.  

In the long run, the events of September may be viewed as an isolated attack of terrorism, or they may be seen as: (1) events that clearly define who is the world’s hegemon ending the competing (Europe, East Asian, China) nation’s theory – Americanism, for now, and forever; (2) as a renewal of the Islamic world, with extremists, literalists, declining in popularity, and a new vision of Islamic modernity emerging, leading to the beginnings of a global ecumene; (3) a challenge by the poor to the world capitalist system, in effect, continuing the pattern of the decline of Communism, decline of grand religions and the collapse of capitalism. In the sense, as the system collapses, the question only future historians know is: what new forms of power will reign? What will emerge from the chaos?  A world state? 

The second part the equation is a shared responsibility, within the Islamic world especially, but essentially a dialogue of civilizations.  This means opening the gates of ijithad (independent reasoning and a capacity to adapt to change) instead of blind imitation.  And here, the crucial language is a dialogue within religions, between the hard and soft side. Certainly the Taliban argument that Muslims have a duty to fight with them in case of an attack on Afghanistan did not help matters.  The Taliban spent the last decade fighting against Muslims with USA indirect support (creating what is now know as the Afghan Arabs) –  why would anyone desire to support such a state? It is the failure of the modernist statist paradigm and support of tyrannical states by the West that pushes groups in this extreme direction.  Unfortunately, leadership in the Islamic world that can give legitimacy to the softer side has been silenced. As long as these leaders do not stand up and challenge dictatorships, they will indirectly participate in the creation of endless Osama Bin Laden’s. Anwar Ibrahim is the most potent symbol of a global muslim leader who seeks a dialogue within Islam and between Islam and the rest of the world in language and on terms of dignity and global ethics. Unfortunately, he remains falsely imprisoned in Malaysia and is symptomatic of the crisis in the Third World. 

While the hard side has clearly defined the future – every bomb dropped, every moment of bio-terror –  reduces the possibilities, this need not be the case.  There are alternatives.   The hard side (not the US military), to some extent, has become de-legitimized.  For example, even the right wing in the USA cringed when Pat Robertson blamed the terror attacks on God ceasing to provide protection to America because of the rise of  feminism, etc..  And Muslims everywhere, are hopefully, beginning to see that more terror will not work and is morally wrong. The Islamic leaders meeting in Qatar was a step forward. The message must be: the injustices are real but non-violent global civil disobedience (against companies, nations around the world, leaders)  is a far more potent method for long-term transformation. In Pakistan, the elimination of the extreme right wing has given hope the middle-class. The carrot of US$ has allowed Pakistan to move away from the rightist politics of General Zia. 

Unfortunately, the hypocrisy in the West does not help matters, and increases daily. Until the USA shuts down its own terror training camps, as for example, the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Co-operation (Whisc), change is likely to be incremental if at all. Whisc was called the School of Americas and argues George Monblot has trained more than 60,000 Latin American soldiers and policemen,” largely involved in death squads against their own people. For example, in Chile its graduates ran Pinochet’s secret police and his three main concentration camps and Human Rights Watch revealed that former pupils … had commissioned kidnappings, disappearances and massacres.”[10]Asks Monblot, provocatively,  should there be bombings of Georgia? Of course not, still double standards do not lead well to civilizational dialogue or world systems transformation. But others nations perhaps should lead the USA by example, showing that hypocrisy does not need to be how the game is played. 

The third part  of the equation really is what the social movements can and must continue, challenging the asymmetrical nature of the world system – the structural violence, the silent emergencies –  and pushing for a new globalization (of ideas, cultures, labor and capital, while protecting local systems that are not racist/sexist/predatory on the weak).  The social movements can through their practice and image of the future, show, and create a global civil society, challenging the twin towers of capital and military.  Real transformation, as in the changes in Eastern Europe, was  pushed through partly through the people’s movements. This process of creating a post-globalization world must continue.  

Resolving the equation of terror then must be both very specific and short term – crimes against humanity  cannot be tolerated – and must transform perceived injustices, the isms, and the structure of the world system, the long term civilizational perspective.  New Internationalist reminds us that on September 11, 2001, 24,000 people died of hunger, 6000 or so children were killed of diarrhea and 2700 or so children died from measles. [11] 

Of course, there are as well bio-psychological hormonal factors (testosterone and chakra imbalance)[12] that may account for the terrorist actions, but they do not always lead to such massive horrendous actions unless there is a historical and structural context.  Thus, terrorist as sociopath is an understandable description but there are deeper levels of analysis. 

SCENARIOS 

What then of the future? What are the likely trajectories? Here are four scenarios for the near and long-term future. These are written – a first draft was written september 20 – to map the future, to understand what is likely ahead, as well to create spaces for transformation.

(1) Back to Normal. After successful surgical strikes against Bin Laden and others, the USA returns to some normalcy. While trauma associated with air travel remains, these are seen as costs associated with a modern lifestyle, ie just as with cancer, heart disease and car accidents. The West continues to ascend, focused on economic renewal through artificial intelligence and emergent bio-technologies. More money, of course, goes to the military and intelligence agencies. The Right reigns throughout the World. Conflicts remain local and silent.  Over time, the world economy prospers once again and poorer nations move up the ranks just as the Pacific Rim nations have. Already the crusader look was presented at Jean-Charles de Castelbajac’s design collection and is considered likely to take off.[13] La vie est Belle (but just don’t look like you are from south asia or the middle east or have an Arabic name). 

(2) Fortress USA/OECD. Australia, for example, is already moving in that direction,  with basically a prison lock down ahead, especially to newcomers (who desire to enter the Fantasy island of the Virtual West escaping sanctions and feudal systems) and those who look different.  In the USA this is emerging through tighter visa restrictions and surveillance on foreigners, as well as, citizens. The carrot is of course usa citizenship being offered to informants from troubled spots. Of course, once they gain citizenship, they can spent a life time under surveillance. 

However, the costs for the elites will be very high given globalized world capitalism, and with aging as one the major long term issues for OECD. The Fortress scenario will lead to general impoverishment and the loss of the immigration innovation factor.  In the short run, it will give the appearance of security, but in the longer run, poverty will result, not to mention sham democracies with real power with the right wing aligned with the military/police complex.  Increasing airport security is a must but without root issues being resolved, terror will find other vehicles of expression. After all, fortresses are remembered, in history, for being overrun, not for successful defense against “others.” 

The response from the Islamic world will be a Fortress Islam, closing civilizational doors, becoming even more feudal and mullahist/wahbist, and forcing individuals to choose: are you with us or against us, denying the multiplicity of selves that we are becoming. The economy – oil – will remain linked but other associations will continue to drift away. 

(3) Cowboy War – vengeance forever (with soft and hard fascism emerging). Bush has already evoked the Wild West, and the Wanted – Dead or Alive image, indeed, even calling for a “crusade” against the terrorists. We have seen what that leads to all over the world, and the consequences are too clear for most of us. Endless escalation in war that will look like the USA has won but overtime will only speed up the process of  decline. They will remember the latest round, and the counter-response will be far more terrifying, with new sorts of weapons. In any case, with the USA military, especially the marines  rapidly increasing its percent of its members who are muslim (through conversion and demographic growth rates)[14], cowboy war will start to eat at the inner center. And once state terror begins, (or shall we say continues) there is no end in sight. Bush has already stated the assassination clause does not apply to Bin Laden and others since the USA is acting in self-defense. Cowboy war, again, will work in the short run. Crowds will chant USA, USA, until the next hit. The CIA can get back to business (already 1 billion has been appropriated and Bush has asked Congress to increase the Pentagon budget by 50 billion usa $), and continue to make enemies everywhere. Most likely, this will globally lead to an endless global “Vietnam”, well, in fact, an endless Afghanistan.[15]     

However, there are signs that Bush and others are listening to a tiny portion of their softer side and seeking to focus on the action of terror and not on Islam or any other wider category.[16]  They could use the sympathy from the rest of the world to “eliminate” terrorism (just as piracy in the high-seas was ended earlier) and, hopefully, in the longer run, seek solidarity with all victims of violence. The trauma from the bombing could lead Americans to genuinely understand the traumas other face in their day to day existence, to a shared transcendence, or it could lead to creating even more traumas. We can hope he – and all of us – keeps on listening and learning,  and with the war in Afghanistan over, the soft future may be possible. But if health in Afghanistan and the Islamic world is not resorted, there will be more trauma on the way. For All.  

Thus in this future, there will be no real change to the world system. Once all the   terrorists are caught –  well actually the perpetrators are already dead –  no changes in international politics or international capital will occur,  OECD states simply become stronger, while individuals become more fearful and anxiety prone.  A depression of multiple varieties is likely to occur (economic and psychological).  The depression will likely lead to anti-globalization revolts throughout the world, either leading to states to  bunker themselves in for the long run, or possibly – transform. Most likely, we will see a slow but inevitable movement toward global fascism – the soft hegemony of the carnivore culture (and anti-ecological in terms of land use) of McDonalds’s with the hard side of Stealth bombers.  The West will become a high-tech fortress, using surveillance technology to watch its citizens. Dissent is only allowable in peace times, and since the war against terrorism is for ever, submit or leave! 

However, “Fortress” in the long run may be difficult, as the globalization forces have already been unleashed and the anti-thesis in a variety of forms has emerged (the socialist revolt, decolonization movements, and even, terrorism). “Cowboy war” will likely only exacerbate the deep cleavages in the World Economy (that the richest 350 or so own the same as nearly 3 billion individuals). Indeed, a case can be made that this was Bin Laden preferred scenario. Bush attacks lead to destabilization in the Arab world, with the possibility of a nuclear accident and leading to extremists in Islamic nations rising up against modernists. 

Over time in this scenario, there may be a transition in who plays the central role in the world system, and is among the reasons the attacks have led to global anxiety – world system shifts are not pretty events or processes.  The periphery tends to see its future through the lenses of the Center; if the Center can be bombed, what future is there for the impoverished periphery? 

The deep divide cannot be resolved, however, merely by the “hearts and minds” strategy for this involves making traditionalists modernist, ie from loving land and God to loving money and scientific rationality. Rather, it involves moving from tradition to a transmodernity, which is inclusive of multiple but layered realities (the vertical gaze of ethics), moving toward an integrated planetary system (loving the  planet and moving away from exclusivist identities but transcending historical traumas). But can this transition occur? Can there be a Gaian polity? This is the fourth scenario. 

(4) Gaian Bifurcation. A Gaia of civilizations (each civilization being incomplete in itself and needing the other) plus a system of international justice focused not only on direct injustices but structural and cultural.  This would not only focus on Israel/Palestine (internationalizing the conflict with peace keepers and creating a shared Jerusalem)  as well as ending the endless sanctions in Iraq, but highlighting injustices by third world governments toward their own people (and the list here is endless, Burma,  Malaysia’s Mahathir, India/Pakistan/Kashmir). The first phase would be  far more legalistic, developing a world rule of law system with the context would be a new equity based multicultural globalization. This aspect would have an hard edge, developing a global police force and a military force. The second phase would be values driven, moving from military to peace keeping to anticipatory conflict resolution. In this phase, this future, the  USA would move to authentically understanding the periphery, seeking to become smaller, globally democratic. This means transforming the world system, focusing on a post-globalization vision of the future, and moving to world governance. Specifically, this means: [17] 

·      human and animal rights;

·      indexing of wealth of poor and rich on a global level, that is, economic democracy – employee ownership;

·      prama[18]based- creating a dynamic balance, between regions, rural/city, seeing  the world economy through the ecological metaphor but with technological innovation;

·      self-reliance, ecological, electronically linked communities (becoming more important than states);

·      gender partnership;

·      and a transformed United Nations, with increased direct democracy, influence of the social movements and transparency within multinational corporations. 

It means moving away from the modernist self and the traditional self, and creating a transmodern self (spiritual, integrating multiplicities and future-generations oriented). 

In terms of epistemology, this means moving from the strategic discourse, which has defined us for hundreds of years, to the emergent healing discourse (within, toward others, toward the planet, and for future generations).   Healing means seeing the earth as an evolving body. What is the best way to heal then, through enhancing the immune system, listening to the body, or through massive injection of drugs? 

In workshops  run around the world, Islamic, Western and East Asian nations, for example, this alternative future emerges as a desired future. Muslim leaders in a March 1996 seminar in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on the Ummah in 2025  desired a future that was based on: 

·      gender cooperation

·      a cooperative economic system (and not capitalism)

·      self-reliance ecological electronically linked communities (glo-cal), and, a

·      a world governance system 

This perspective appears to be generally shared by  the cultural creatives, an emerging demographic category in the West (www.culturalcreatives.org) In the Non-West as well there is a desire to move away from feudal structures but retain spiritual heritage, to be “modern” but in a different way.

DIRECTION 

To move toward this direction, ultimately means far more of a Mandela approach, what Johan Galtung is doing via the transcend (www.transcend.org) network, than the traditional short term Americanist approach. 

Indeed, 9/11 must be seen in a layered way. How it is constructed defines the solution. If we use the piracy discourse, then  a global police force must be developed to combat terrorism. If, however, it is a natural consequence of globalization, of a shadow NGO attacking a world hegemon, then the focus should be on the pathologies of globalization. If  this is essentially about injustice, about deeper worldviews being extinguished by modernity, then structural transformation and conversations with the other are far more important.. Depth peace is needed. While there may need to be short term actions against criminals, rehabilitation requires changes of culture and of economic opportunities, ie dismantling of the interstate system which allows capital to travel but not labour, and certainly restricts ideas from the periphery to travel and circulate freely. 

In this sense, the fourth scenario is about the long term and about depth. This fourth scenario is a vision of a global civil/spiritual society. It stands in strong opposition to the declared nation-statist position and the extremist groups all over the world. It challenges the strategic modernist worldview as well as the short termism of most governments. 

The first scenario continues the present; the second is a return to the imagined past; the third the likely future; and the fourth, the aspirational .  This means moving beyond both the capitalist West and the feudalized, ossified non-West (and modernized fragmented versions of it) and toward an Integrated Planetary Civilization. 

On a personal note, in utopian moments, I can see this civilization desperately trying to emerge at rational and post-rational levels,  and there are huge stumbling blocks – perceived injustices, the isms,  the asymmetrical world order, and national leaders unwilling to give up their “god-given” right to define identity and allegiance. 

Do we have the courage to create this emergent future? As we move into 2002, the aspirational future moves further and further away – the window of opening for cultural dialogue, for understanding deeper issues, has all but closed. But it will open again. Let us hope that opening does not come in the same fashion as 9/11 did. And I hope we will learn from all the mistakes committed this time.


[1] Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan; Sunshine Coast University, Maroochydore; and Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane.  Co-editor, Journal of Futures Studies (www.ed.tku.edu.tw/develop/jfs), Associate Editor, New Renaissance (www.ru.org). s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au, www.metafuture.org. Inayatullah was born in Pakistan and raised in Indiana, New York, Geneva, Islamabad, Kuala Lumpur, and Honolulu. 

[2] Around 500-700 Pakistanis are presumed to be missing, as based on data from SBS Television Australia and Pakistan’s The News. It is not only Americans that is being attacked by certainly Muslims (possibly around 900 or so in the WTC and  some in the Pentagon, perhaps, not to mention attacks of terror toward Muslims in the last 15 years from all sources) as well. As of September 23, the figure is 200 pakistanis. http://www.pak.gov.pk/public/transcript_of_the_press_conferen.htm. By February 2002, this figure has been revised downwardly to 3000. The number of non-Americans killed is unknown.
[3] As Tony Judge and others have argued, www.uia.org)
[4] Personal comments. September 18, 2001.
[5] Personal comments. September 16, 2001.

[6] Jo Voros of Swinburne University offers these thoughts (email, October 8, 2001):What’s really going on (in Spiral language) is that purposeful-authoritation higher-order-seeking BLUE is activating its fundamentalist side and is becoming entrenched on both sides of the conflict. And each side of the conflict is basically talking about God being on *their* side (the classic  Higher Authority invocation) therefore, the “others” are unjust, unrighteous and deserve to be damned forever. BLUE needs a clear-cut right and wrong; by default “we” are right and “they” are wrong, which is the dynamic now playing out on either side.

Therefore, we have the US talking about “bringing to justice” (punitive arm of BLUE) those responsible for WTC attacks. The US talk of a “crusade” is a RED-BLUE effect; unrestrained RED asserts power and domination, often with violence, and when aligned with the “righteousness” provided by the higher authority, this violence is assumed to be righteous, resulting in violence glorified, allowed and exalted in the name of the Higher Authority. This is the same dynamic as on the West Bank between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Once you strip out the context-specific content, the same dynamical process is easily seen. On the facing side, the fundamentalist Taliban are saying the same sort of stuff — that it is the US who are terrorists and criminals, and thus unrighteous, etc — and invoking “jihad” — the semantic equivalent of “crusade”. The RED is starting to flow, both figuratively as a Spiral Dynamics vmeme, and as the blood of the now dying in vain. *sigh*

So, what we really need in this conflict is a super-ordinate Even Higher Authority to provide “good” authority (as opposed to the excessive fundamentalist form present on both sides) and bring the two sides to heel. Unfortunately, this is not present on Planet Earth. Each side claims sanction and legitimation from the Ultimate Higher Authority (God), so any non-God authority is, by definition, beneath this level.

[7] Of course, one friend of mine, commented that if he did know me, because of my name and facial features, he would have problems flying on the same plane as me. Another commented: “They are everywhere” (meaning arabs/south asians/muslims).
[8] See Hasan’s Faithlines: Muslim Conceptions of Islam and Society. Oxford University Press (forthcoming).
[9] Kevin Kelly, “The New Communism,” The Futurist (January-February, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2002), 22. Writes Kelly: “I think we need to enlarge Western civilization so that we have something young Islamic believers want. Providing it will be the only way, and the only honest way, to triumphh.” (22)
[10] George Monblot, “Looking for a terror school to bomb? Try Georgia, USA. Sydney Morning Herald (November 1, 2001), 12.
[11] New Internationalist 340, November 2001, 18-19.
[12] In the Indian health system, there are seven chakras. When the chakras are imbalanced, then negative emotions and behaviors can result. Yoga, meditation and diet are ways to balance the bodies hormonal system.
[13] Sally Jackson, “Star-spangled fervour in style,” The Australian (October 31, 2001), 15.

[14] Ayeda Husain Naqvi writes in “The Rise of the Muslim Marine” (NewsLine, July 1996, 75-77) that while hate crimes against Muslims rise all over the world, surprising the US military is one of the safest places to be a Muslim. Indeed, Qasem Ali Uda forecasts that in 20 years, 25% of all US marines will be Muslim. Given the incredible influence that that former military personnel have on US policies (ie a look at Who’s Who in America shows that military background and law school education are the two common denominators on the resumes of America’s most influential people), inclusion is the wisest policy.

[15] I am indebted to Mike Marien, of the World Future Society for this insight.
[16] As the conflict matures, Colin Powell and others have understood that surgical strikes as well as seeing the other in far less essentialized terms (the many Islams, the many Afghanistans) is crucial for strategy and success. Bush entering a mosque, without shoes, and publicly stating that this is a war against terrorists and not Muslims are all excellent steps forward. In addition, protection of minorities in the USA against direct violence is as well to be lauded. Even his willingness to change the title of the American Infinite Justice operation to Enduring Freedom confirms that he is getting some good advise, or rapidly growing up.  However, if total lack of capacity to understand the role of honor in Pushtun culture once again shows that Americanism can be dangerous for the world, in that complexity, other ways of knowings are not only not misunderstood but not seen as relevant at all. An approach that understoon Pushtun culture would search for honorable ways for them to withdraw from this conflict.
[17] See, Sohail Inayatullah, Understanding Sarkar: The Indian Episteme, Macrohistory and Transformative Knowledge. Leiden, Brill, 2002.
[18] Prama means inner and outer balance.  For more on this, see, Sohail Inayatullah, Sitatuing Sarkar. Maleny, Gurukul Publications, 1999.

The University in Transformation (Book Info, 2000)

The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives on the Futures of the University

Edited by Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Gidley

Bergin & Garvey. Westport, Conn. 2000. 280 pages

LC 99-16061. ISBN 0-89789-718-8. H718

 

Contributing Authors:

Tom Abeles, Marcus Bussey, James Dator, James Grant, Anne Hickling-Hudson, Greg Hearn, Patricia Kelly, Peter Manicas, Ivana Milojevic, Shahrzad Mojab, Ashis Nandy, Deane Neubauer, Patricia Nicholson, David Rooney, Tariq Rahman, Michael Skolnik, Philip Spies and Paul Wildman.

 

Book Summary

Taking a long-term historical and future perspective on the university is critical at this time. The university is being refashioned, often by forces out of the control of academics, students, and even administrators. However, there remain possibilities for informed action, for steering the directions that the university can take. This book maps both the historical factors and the alternative futures of the university. Whereas most books on the university remain focused on the European model, this volume explores models and issues from non-Western perspectives as well.

Inayatullah and Gidley draw together essays by leading academics from a variety of disciples and nations on the futures of the university, weaving historical factors with emerging issues and trends such as globalism, virtualization, multiculturalism, and politicization. They attempt to get beyond superficial debate on how globalism and the Internet as well as multiculturalism are changing the nature of the university, and they thoughtfully assess these changes.

 

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION

Forces Shaping University Futures by Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Gidley

WESTERN PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURES OF THE UNIVERSITY

University Traditions and the Challenge of Global Transformation by Philip Spies

Higher Education at the Brink by Peter Manicas

Will the Future Include Us? Reflections of a Practitioner of Higher Education by Deane   Neubauer

The Virtual University and the Professoriate by Michael Skolnik

The Futures for Higher Education: From Bricks to Bytes to Fare Thee Well by Jim Dator

Why Pay for a College Education? by Tom Abeles

Of Minds, Markets and Machines: How Universities might transcend the Ideology of Commodification by David Rooney and Greg Hearn

At the Edge of Knowledge-Towards Polyphonic Multiversities by Paul Wildman

NON-WESTERN PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURES OF THE UNIVERSITY

Recovery of Indigenous Knowledge and Dissenting Futures of the University by Ashis Nandy

Pakistani Universities: Past, Present, and Future by Tariq Rahman

Civilizing the State: the University in the Middle East by Shahrzad Mojab

Scholar Activism for a New World: The Future of the Caribbean University by Anne Hickling-Hudson

Internationalizing the Curriculum-for Profit or the Planet? by Patricia Kelly

ALTERNATIVE UNIVERSITIES

The Crisis of the University: Feminist Alternatives for the 21st Century and Beyond by Ivana Milojevic

Homo Tantricus: Tantra as an Episteme for Future Generations by Marcus Bussey

Universities Evolving: Advanced Learning Networks and Experience Camps by Patricia Nicholson

Consciousness-Based Education: A Future of Higher Education in the New Millennium by James Grant

TRANSFORMATIONS OF THE UNIVERSITY

Corporate Networks or Bliss for All: The Politics of the Futures of the University by Sohail Inayatullah

Unveiling the Human Face of University Futures by Jennifer Gidley


Comments On The University In Transformation

This book is admirably comprehensive. Its authors look at the impact on universities of all the major trends of our times. Even better, they go beyond the usual western focus and attempt a genuinely world view. A very stimulating contribution to the debate.

Sir John Daniel, Vice-Chancellor, The Open University


Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Gidley have responded to the present crises of higher education by bringing together a must-read collection of papers. Firmly grounding their work on past trends, both the Western and Non-Western authors of these papers challenge conventional thinking as they explore possible, probable, and preferable futures for the university. A first-rate piece of work that might help us avoid a potential coming educational catastrophe.

Professor Wendell Bell, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, Yale University


…University in Transformation is highly recommended as an engaging, informative, and visionary text for those concerned with the critical role of universities in personal and national development in the 21st century.

Professor Robert Arnove, Professor of International and Comparative

Education, Indiana University, Bloomington


This book is a `must’ reading for all professionals in higher education and those policy makers who have influence upon the direction of higher education in the U.S. as well as other countries….While thoughtful in insight, it is also practical in ideas. Anyone who reads it will come away with the importance of higher education and its role in building a global society where humanity will ultimately prevail.

Professor Glenn K. Miyataki, President, The Japan-America Institute of

Management Science, Honolulu, Hawaii


A very impressive collection… This book arrives just-in-time for universities that want a future.

Gordon Prestoungrange, Global President, International Management Centers


This is an interesting and thought-provoking book that gives other perspectives to the important debate on the role and effectiveness of the university in modern society.

Professor John Rickard

Vice-Chancellor, Southern Cross University


Gidley and Inayatullah give equal weight to non-Western perspectives and … “alternative universities.”

Warren Osmond

Editor, Campus Review


Editors Inayatullah and Gidley have created a solid collection of     significant if tantalizing essays addressing the basic question:    Can–or should–the university as we have known it continue to exist in view of new forces engulfing the world? They observe an increasingly multicultural, globalized, and politicized world in which the Internet can virtualize a university’s walls. Will technologies reach Third World universities and modernize them, make them more open, less parochial, and more inclusive? As the university becomes more tied to the corporate world in a globally capitalist system, will it abandon its noble purpose as a repository of truth and knowledge and lose its potential to transform society? These are among the questions discussed.

The authors, most of them Futurists, all agree that within the near future universities will be radically transformed. Some predict that in market-driven universities tenure, academic freedom, and commercially nonviable disciplines will evaporate and student-teacher contacts will dwindle in an atmosphere of human redundancy. Others see bright futures for alternative universities in which information technology and virtualization will play major roles. Optimists, they see current trends not as threats but as opportunities for professors, administrators, and policy shapers. The book, well organized and edited, will be especially valuable for graduate students in postsecondary education.

O. Ulin, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Choice Magazine (Current reviews for Academic Libraries, published by the American Library Association) October, 2000


Purchase via Amazon

Trends Transforming the Futures of the University (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

This article is based on speeches presented to the Professoriate at Tamkang University, Taiwan and at the 4TH Pacific Rim First Year in Higher Education Conference, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia, 6 July 2000

 

Trends of changing student expectations (access to global systems of knowledge, including transparency and international accreditation), the internet (virtual education, moving from campus center to person centered, and far more customized, individually tailored), global corporatization (reduced state funding for universities and the development of a market culture on campuses) and transformed content (multicultural education) will dramatically influence all the world’s universities. In the next ten years there will be windows of opportunities to transform and be ahead of the curve. However, after that the window will close and there will be clear winners and losers. Indeed the potential for dramatic transformation is so great that in 10 years, it is far from certain that universities as currently constituted – campus based, nation-funded, and local student-oriented – will exist.

Corporatization

Corporatization will create far more competition than traditional universities have been prepared for. Corporatization is the entrance of huge multinational players into the educational market. All understand that education is the big growth area. Total spending in education in America was 800$ billion US, estimates The Economist. By 2003, the private capital invested in the US will total 10 billion dollars, just for the virtual higher education market and 11 billion dollars in the private sector serving the corporate market. Indeed, John Chambers, CEO of Cisco systems, calls “online education the killer application of the internet.” Jeanne Meister, president of Corporate University Xchange(CUX), expects that by 2010 there will be more corporate universities in the United States than traditional ones. They are and will continue to challenge the academy’s monopolization of accreditation. These corporations have a huge capitalization base and with globalization they have the legitimacy to cross national boundaries and with the internet the vehicle to do so. Pearson, for example, a large British media group that owns 50% of the Economist, is betting its future on it, hoping that it can provide the online material for the annual two million people that will be seeking a degree online.

The money is in education. Generally as academics we are not used to this type of language. For us, it has been about scholarship, the pursuit of truth, about science. I know at one meeting, when a colleague asked about the level of scholarship in one program, the Dean said they had no money for scholarships. He had already forgotten what the university was about as he was always under so much financial pressure.

Now if someone down to the street, some vendor who sells bread wants to take over the university, there is no threat. But when billion dollar corporations want to enter the market – a rapidly growing market, especially with the aging of the population and with national barriers to education slowly breaking down – the challenge to the traditional university becomes dramatic. With an expanding market of hundreds of millions of learners, money will follow future money. Money will transform education.

This corporatization of the university – Academic Capitalism – differs quite dramatically from the classical university, which was concerned about moral education. Moreover, as in Bologna in the 10th century, it was student-run. If the professor was late, he was fined by students, some teachers were even forced to leave the city.

University Dimensions

The point is that at one time the university was student-run, we know that it is no longer so, if anything it is administration-run. Who will run it in the future? To understand this we need to explore the different dimensions of the University. The University is partly about social control, and it is also about baby-sitting. What to do with teenagers? How to keep them out of trouble? The other dimension is national development. We have schools to convince everyone that we’re a good people, that we have the best system. Each nation engages in social control, it uses education to give legitimacy to the nation-state, to make good patriots. We also have university for job training, the entire practical education moment. – the small community colleges, where the goal is to go to a small college to get practical education so that one can get a real job after graduation.

Thus the classical (Confucian and Greek) view of knowledge for the cultivation of the mind has been supplanted by the industrial model. And, as you might expect the big growth in jobs in the university are in the area of the bureaucracy. Whereas tenure is being eliminated in favor of part-time employment throughout the world, the university administration just keeps on expanding.

Now I know some of you are happy, the administrators, as you believe these positions are justified since reporting, accounting requirements keep on increasing, student numbers keep on going up, so of course, there should be more administrators.

But if you are not an administrator and are a faculty member you are wondering where is the money going to?. I know students everywhere are asking that. In one meeting we had on globalization and the university, one professor commented that the “the most important thing in globalization is reducing labor costs.” Someone else asked: and where are the biggest labor costs? The biggest labor cost is in the administration. If you really want a globalized university, first cut the deans. Of course, this is the most difficult position to cut since deans generally decide which positions go and which stay. Faculty planning seminars are essentially about implementing university plans, and not about creating new visions of education.

But the key question will be: what can be automated? Who can be replaced by the internet and web education? Perhaps both – faculty and the administration – will be in trouble. This is the debate: too many administrators or too many professors. A third perspective is – a market perspective – not enough students and thus each university believes it must globalize and have students from all over the world attend their physical campus as well as take courses from their virtual campuses. However, generally, most universities still think about students in narrow ways. As young people or as students from one’s own nation. But with the ageing population and with the internet (with bandwith likely to keep on increasing), one’s paying students can be from anywhere.

When I think of a student, I think of someone as 50, even 70 years old. The idea of 18 years old student is no longer an accurate representation. The biggest democratic shaft in human history is now occurring. We are moving from the medium age of OECD countries being 20 to 40. It’s dramatic shift.

Now the other classical view of university was academic-led – a shared culture focused on scholarship and science – but that too is been challenged. And of course the .com model even challenges what the university should look like. Should it be physical-based or virtual? Should it be based on a model of hierarchy or a networked model?

But for academics, the biggest challenge is the university as a corporation. And we know in the U.S. that Corporate funding for the University has increased from 850 million in 1985 to 4.25 billion US$ less than a decade later. In the last twenty years it has increased by eight times.

So the big money is coming from the corporation and money from the government is gradually being reduced years as per the dictates of the globalization model. While most presidents of the university would prefer a different model, they have no choice. More and more education is becoming an economic good. Humanity departments are being downsized throughout the world since the contribution to jobs is not direct. Unfortunately, they forget the indirect contribution, that of creating smart, multi-lingual, multi-cultural individuals – what some call social capital.

However, there are some quite insidious affects of corporatization. First, information is no longer open, as corporations use it for profit making. A survey of 210 life-science companies in 1994 found that 58% of those sponsoring academic research required delays of more than six months before publication. The content of science itself changes as the funding increased. In a 1996 study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, 98% of papers based on industry-sponsored research reflected favorably on the drugs being examined as compared with 79% based on research not funded by the industry. Now what accounts for that 19% variation? And how will the public then see the university? As with the medical system, once patients believe that doctors are beholden to certain drug companies or web sites they are less likely to trust them. This holds true for university research as well.

But there is another side to globalization. In 1989 in the U.S. there were 364 new start up companies on the basis of a license to an academic invention. University technology transfer activities generated 34 billion dollars in U.S.$ supporting 280,000 jobs.

So the university is becoming more global and also producing incredible wealth, so there are two sides to globalization.

Virtualization: the .com revolution

The .com revolution as well has mixed reviews. A quick example. Over night, one Australian university administration changed the prefix for academic emails from edu.au to .com. So over night your email changed from being Professor Chen@edu.au to Chen@com. The academics asked why did this occur. While some were upset that this happened without consultation, others were upset that the moral basis of the university was being transformed, they were deeply troubled by corporatization. The administration responded that we can no longer compete globally as an @.edu.au institution and instead had to become a .com. Eventually the university went back to edu.au as the pressure from academics was too great.

But the university administration could see the writing on the wall. The traditional model of the classical liberal arts national subsidized university was ending – a new model was emerging. The mistake they made was not engaging in dialogue with others, not living the .com network model but instead using the power-based secrecy model of the industrial era.

The other problem that administrations have not yet begun to see is that much of middle-management can and is likely to be eliminated. The emerging knowedge economy – via the net and future artificial intelligence systems – will lead to dis-intermediation. With a good information system, you don’t need all the secretaries, the clerks, as well as those higher up the ladder. Of course, the politics of job firing, retraining, is a different matter and central to how the future university and overall world economy is to be organized in the future.

Now the other impact of the .com revolution is that it creates the portable revolution. With colleagues, we produced a cdrom on Futures Studies which in effect is a portable university. One can get an MA through the cdrom, it has courses on it, stories of all the authors and it opens up to the web serving as a knowledge navigator for the field of futures studies. So when people ask me where I teach, I say, I just carry my university with me. Through the cdrom, you enter a new pedagogical world. You can, for example, e-mail all the authors and editors. Now remember when you were in college and if you wanted to ask questions of a textbook chapter, to e-mail a great scientist, a great social scientist, could you do that? With this type of technology you can ask authors questions of their text, seek further explanations. The text can become communicative instead of merely information.

Of course, one can put all this information on the web as well, however, bandwith while increasing is slow in many universities.

So the nature of what constitutes education is dramatically changing from being text focused to being customer student focused. From being campus focused to being virtual. The university than becomes a process, it is no longer simply a place, with fixed 9-5 work patterns, with fixed schedules for classes. It can become a network.

Multicultural Realities

The model of how think about what is taught – not just how it is taught, and the structure around education – is also changing. And this is the important trend of multiculturalism.

In its tokenistic form, multiculturalism became a government fad of the last decade in postindustrial societies, its most controversial feature being its excesses of ‘political correctness’. In its deeper nature it is

about inclusiveness. At heart, argues Ashis Nandy, multiculturalism is about dissent, about contesting the categories of knowledge that modernity has given us. And, even with multiculturalism often criticized and coopted, used strategically to ensure representation, still the future is likely to me more and more about an ethics of inclusion instead of a politics of exclusion. Of course, the struggle will be long and hard, and more often than not, instead of new curriculum, there will be just more special departments of the Other.

Deep multiculturalism challenges what is taught, how it is taught, the knowledge categories used to teach, and the way departments enclose the other. It provides a worldview in which to create new models of learning and new universities which better capture the many ways students know the world. As futures researcher Paul Wildman reminds us, this can extend to concepts such as multiversities and even ‘subversities’ which encourage participation from scholars and students who dwell at the periphery of

knowledge. In this form, multiculturalism goes beyond merely inclusion of ‘other’ ethnicities, to a questioning of the whole paradigm of western scientific rationalism on which centuries of university traditions are founded. In this perspective, multiple ways of knowing include spiritual or consciousness models of self, in which as James Grant for the Mahrishi University of Mangement and Marcus Bussey of The Ananda Marga Gurukul University assert, the main driver in transforming universities of the next century is an explosion of inner enlightenment, a new age of higher consciousness about to begin.

Multiculturalism ends the view that there is only one science. Western science instead of being seen as a quest for truth is considered to be one way of knowing among many. There are can alternative sciences – feminist science, Tantric science, Islamic science. They are still engaged in empirical and verifiable research but the questions asked, the ethical framework are different. Generally, the type of research is more concerned with indigenous problems, with local concerns. It is less violent to nature, toward “subjects” and more concerned with integrated self and other, mind and body, intellect and intuition.

What’s happening through out universities is that scholars are contesting the content of scholarship – how, for example, history is taught, asking are all civilizations included, or are only Western thinkers, Western notions of discovery and culture honored.

I give a lecture at an Australian university and questioned how they were teaching their main course on World History. I noted that the grand thinkers from Islamic, Sinic and Indian civilizations were not included. Why? And when other civilizations were briefly mentioned they were written as threats to the West or as barbarians. Women and nature as well were absent. I argued that this creates a view of history that is not only inaccurate but violent since other cultures see themselves through these hegemonic eyes. Instead of creating an inclusive history of humanity’s struggle, a history of one particular civilization becomes valorized.

While it is unlikely that the professor who teaches this course will change, students have changed. They want multiple global perspectives. They understand that they need to learn about other cultures from those cultures’ perspectives.

The multicultural challenge to the traditional university can be defined as below:

  • Challenge to western canon
  • Challenge to intellect as the only way of knowing
  • Challenge to divorce of academic from body and spirit – challenge to egghead vision of self/other
  • Challenge to modernist classification of knowledge
  • Challenge to traditional science (feminist, islamic, postnormal, indian)
  • Challenges pedagogy, curriculum as well as evaluation – ie process or culture, content and evaluation or what is counted.

We are already seeing the rise of multiculturalism in OECD nations. For example, at one conference in Boston, when participants were asked to list the five American authors they believed most necessary for a quality education, they placed Toni Morrison second and Maya Angelou third. Others on the top ten, included Maclom X and James Baldwin. The first was Mark Twain.

The multicultural perspective challenges as well the foundation of knowledge. Multicultural education is about creating structures and processes that allow for the expression of the many civilizations, communities and individuals that we are.

Multicultural education contests the value neutrality of current institutions such as the library. For example, merely including texts from other civilizations does not constitute a multi-cultural library. Ensuring that the contents of texts are not ethnocentric is an important step but this does not begin to problematize the definitional categories used in conventional libraries. For example, in the multicultural perspective, we need to ask what a library would look like if it used the knowledge paradigms of other civilizations? How would knowledge be rearranged? What would the library floors look like? In Hawaiian culture, for example, there might be floors for the Gods, for the aina and genealogy. In Tantra, empirical science would exist alongside intuitional science. Floor and shelve space would privilege the superconscious and unconscious layers of reality instead of only focusing on empirical levels of the real. In Islam, since knowledge is considered tawhidic (based on the unity of God), philosophy, science and religion would no longer occupy the discrete spaces they currently do. Of course, the spatiality of “floors” must also be deconstructed. Information systems from other civilizations might not privilege book-knowledge, focusing instead on story-telling and dreamtime as well as wisdom received from elders/ancestors (as in Australian Aboriginal) and perhaps even “angels” (either metaphorically or ontologically).

A multi-cultural library might look like the world wide web but include other alternative ways of knowing and being. Most certainly knowledge from different civilizations in this alternative vision of the “library” would not be relegated to a minor site or constituted as an exotic field of inquiry such as Asian, Ethnic or Feminist studies, as are the practices of current libraries. The homogeneity of the library as an organizing information system must be reconstructed if we are to begin to develop the conceptual framework of multi-cultural education.

Thus, not only is the structure of the University changing, that is, virtualization, but the content as well is being transformed. Now what does this mean? If you want your university to have a bright future, you have to understand the changing nature of the student – changing demographics (older, more females) and changing expectations (more multicultural). Generally, while getting a job will always be important, the equation has changed to planet, profits and people, that is, a strong concern for the environment, for making money and for engaging with others and other cultures.

Democratizing the Feudal Mind

The role of academics is changing as well. This is the generally the hardest notion for senior professors to swallow – the democratization of the university. We want democracy for government, but we don’t want democracy for universities .

The university remains feudal. For example, while the economy in East Asian nations has transformed, that is, feudalism was destroyed, the feudal mind has not changed. This is the grand question for East Asian nations. How to create a culture of innovation, how to go to the next level of economic development, instead of copying, creating. To create an innovative learning organization, you can’t have a culture of fear. This means real democracy in details like what type of seating is in the room. As well as: can students challenge professors? Can junior professors challenge senior academics without fear of reprisal. Innovation comes from questioning.

In British systems, the university structure is as well profoundly feudal. A strong distinction is made between the professor and the lecturer. Indeed, the professor is high on top the pyramid with others way below (and the president of the university residing on the mountain top).

Thus can we democratize the university? Of course, it is difficult to do this. No one likes being challenged. We all have our view of reality, our favorite models, and we believe we are correct. But creating a learning organization means challenging basic structures and finding new ways to create knowledge and wealth. It doesn’t mean always going to the President for solutions. Transforming the feudal university is very difficult.

However, I am not discounting the importance of respect for leadership, for discipline and hardwork – challenging authority doesn’t mean being rude, it means contesting the foundations for how we go about creating a good society.

So far I’ve touched upon four trends: corporatization, virtualization, multiculturalism and democratization as well as basic missions of the University. Given these trends and missions, what are the possibilities for the university, what are the possible structures?

Possible Structures

I see three possible structures. One is being a University leader, joining the world’s elite, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford. The focus then is: “We are only going to get the best bright students around the world.” But the challenge to this model comes from the .com world. The big money is unlikely to be in teaching but in content design. The issue is though once you put your name on cdroms, on internet content, does that diminish your brand name, its exclusivity. If everyone can enter an elite university’s web course, is the university still elite? This is the issue of franchising. Should you focus on a small customer base that can pay a lot or become like the University of Pheonix (the largest university in the USA, offers no tenure, uses short courses as well as flexible delivery. A kind of just-in-time education).

For large universities, there are two clear choices – elite university or low cost producers with hundreds of millions of new students all over the world as potential purchasers. A third choice for the smaller university is the niche university –focused in a particular area of excellence. Not trying to be too much, just focused on one particular area (regional concerns, for example).

The question for the traditional university is new competition from global players: multi-media corporations, elite universities that are expanding and branding as well as low-cost producers.

These issues are already of concern in the USA, and soon they will be crucial here as well. It is harder to see this in East Asian nations (and those colonized by England) since the State plays such a strong role in education. But eventually in five or ten years the competition will come here as well. All universities will find themselves in a global market.

Scenarios for the Future

The next question is what are the probable scenarios for the future of the university. We use scenarios to reduce uncertainty. Scenarios are also important in that they also help us rethink the present – they give us a distance from today.

Earlier futures studies focused entirely on single point prediction. The field then moved to scenario planning, to alternative futures. But now, it is moving to capacity development, with creating learning organizations where foresight is a continuous part of what the organization does.

Studies that examine corporations that have survived over a hundred years found that the one key factor in explaining longevity was the capacity to tolerate ideas from the margin. For universities this is crucial – the capacity to tolerate dissent, indeed, to nurture different ideas, new ideas from the edge.

In terms of scenarios, the first one is the Star Alliance model. I use this term from the airlines – where the passenger is always taken care of – there is easy movement from one airline to the other. Everything is smooth. For the university, this would mean easy movement of student credits, faculty and programs. A student could take one semester at Stanford, and a second semester in Tamkang, and a third semester at Singapore National University. Professors could also change every semester. So it means a similar web of movement, that’s one big possibility. Star alliance works because customers are happy. The airlines are happy because they get brand loyalty. The student might say “I know if I join this university, my credits are transferable. I could access the best professor, I could access the best knowledge in the world.

The second scenario is what I call, Virtual Touch. This vision of the future of the university combines the best of face-to-face pedagogy (human warmth, mentoring) with virtual pedagogy (instant, anywhere in the world, at your own time and speed). If it is just technology then you get bored students, staring at a distant professor. But if it is just face-to-face you don’t get enough information. The universities who can combine both will do very well.   Ultimately that will mean wearable wireless computers. We already know that in Japan they use the wireless phone to dial up a website and find the out the latest movie, or weather or stock quote.

In 10 years, it is going to be the wearable computer, so we’re going to have a computer with us all the time. I can find out everything, I can find out the minerals in water for example, testing to see if it is clean or not. And that technology is almost developed now. I can find out where was my microphone was made. Was it made in China, in Taiwan, in the U.K. I just dial up and I can get product information. And this information will be linked to my values, what type of world I want to see. Thus, I’ll purchase products that are environmentally friendly, where the corporation treats women well. And students will see university courses in the same way: is it well taught, what is the professor like, how much democracy is in the class, what are the values of the University?

The third scenario is: A university without all walls. It’s means the entire world becomes a university . As Majid Tehranian writes: “If all goes well, the entire human society will become a university without walls and national boundaries.” We don’t need specific universities anymore since the university is everywhere, a true knowledge economy wherein humans constantly learn and use their knowledge to create processes that create a better fairer, richer, happier world.

The Future of the Profession

Let me now return to the future of the academic. What is our role in this dramatically changing world. The first possibility is the traditional professor – this is the agent of authority, great in one field but knowing very little about other fields. They may know Physics but not complexity theory. They are useful in that they are brilliant in one area but not so useful since they have a hard time adapting to change.

The second role is the professor as web content designer. While the current age-cohort is unlikely to engage in these activities, younger people will. Even my six year old wants to be a cdrom designer when he grows up. Other young people as well see knowledge as quite different than we do. They see knowledge as quick, as interactive, as multi-disciplinary and as always changing. They want to be web designers and information designers. So the old role of academics was to write books, the new role is that of creating new types of interactive content. And the content will likely be far more global, multicultural than we have so far seen. It appears to be an entirely different world being created.

That also means, if you’re the web designer, you’re student becomes key. This means using action learning methods. Action learning means that the content of the course is developed with the student. While the professor may have certain authoritative knowledge, his or her role is more of a mentor, the knowledge navigator to help the student develop his or her potential within his or her categories of what is important.

You might say this is impossible in Asian nations and former British colonies. But many years ago we had a one week course in Thailand. The subject was the futures of economic development. The first four days, we had heavy lectures, but on the 5th day, my colleague from Queensland University of Tony Stevenson said to the students “you design the course.” For the first half-hour, the students looked down. But after twenty minutes they started talking and eventually designed the next few days.

My sense is that this is good news for academics. Most of the professors I speak with would prefer less teaching – information passing out – and more communication. The mentoring role is far more rewarding, personal. The old school was the long lecture. The new way of thinking is just tell the student to go the web and find out. Afterwards there can be a discussion. The Professor then has to learn how to listen to students’ needs and not just to lecture to them.

What is unique about our era is that we now have the technology to do this. Do we have the political will, the wisdom?

Dissenting Futures

Let me close this speech with the issue of dissent. What makes the role of the academic unique is that he or she can challenge authority. When the system becomes too capitalistic, this can be questioned. If it is too religious, this too can be countered. All the excesses of the system can be challenged. And who can do this? Those who work for the government can’t since they fear losing their jobs. Those belonging in the church, temple or mosque can’t since they are ideologically bound. And this is the problem with globalization, by making efficiency the only criteria, moral space is lost. As academics we should never, I believe, lose sight of our responsibility to create new futures, to inspire students, to ask what-if questions, to think the unthinkable, to go outside current parameters of knowledge. This is our responsibility to current and future generations.

 

Selected References

Eyal Press and Jennifer Washburn, The Kept University in The Atlantic Monthly (March 2000), 39-54.

Glazer, Nathan. We are all Multiculturalists Now. Harvard, Harvard University Press, 1997.

Inayatullah, Sohail and Jennifer Gidley, eds. The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives on the Futures of the University. Westport, Ct., Bergin and Garvey, 2000.

Inayatullah, S. “The Multicultural Challenge to the Future of Knowledge.” Periodica Islamica, 1996, 6(1), 35–40.

Staff, “Online Education: Lessons of a virtual timetable,” The Economist (February 17, 2001), 71-75.

Tehranian, M. “The End of the University.” Information Society, 1996, 12(4), 444–446.

Wildman, P. “From the Monophonic University to Polyphonic Multiversities.” Futures, 1998, 30(7), 625–635.

Wiseman, L. “The University President: Academic Leadership in an Era of Fund Raising and Legislative Affairs.” In R. Sims and S. Sims (eds.), Managing Institutions of Higher Education into the Twenty-First Century. Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1991.

 

Websites

www.gurkul.edu

www.ru.org

Are Women Transforming Organisations? (2000)

Primitive descriptions of the “manager of the future” uncannily match those of female leadership, writes futurist Ivana Milojević from Brisbane.

“Consultants try to teach male managers to relinquish the command-and-control mode. For women that came naturally – many of the attributes for which women’s leadership is praised are rooted in women’s socialised roles. The traditional female value of caring for others – balanced with sufficient objectivity – is the basis of the management skill of supporting and encouraging people and bringing out their best, a skill now highly valued by management experts.”

Working at the University of Queensland, Ivana Milojevic has a special interest in feminist futures, which she has been researching with data from Australian as well as global sources. She argues that while women have come a long way toward taking their place on an equal footing with men at work, there is still a long way to go. However much of this ground may be covered by organisations moving forward to meet feminine values, rather than women fighting for recognition in organisations.  

Another key factor is the strong role of women in developing small business, and creating job opportunities in small enterprises for themselves and others.

“In the future, institutions will be organised according to the networking model (as opposed to the pyramid structure),” she said.  “The top responsibility of managers will be creating a nourishing environment for personal growth, providing holistic development and motivation. The management style of women is ideally suited to these people priorities.”

More than half of women business owners (53%) emphasize intuitive or “right-brain” thinking. This style stresses creativity, sensitivity and values-based decision making. Seven out of ten (71 per cent) male business owners emphasize logical or “left-brain” thinking. This style stresses analysis, processing information methodically and developing procedures.

Women business owners’ decision-making style is more “whole-brained” than their male counterparts, that is, more evenly distributed between right and left brain thinking.

According to the National Foundation for Women Business Owners, women business owners are more likely than all businesses to offer flextime, tuition reimbursement and job sharing.  Women business owners tend to share their business’ profit with employees at a much earlier stage than other businesses:  nearly twice as many woman-owned firms employing fewer than 25 employees (14%) have set up such programs compared to all small firms with 20 or less employees (8%).

“Forty per cent of women-owned businesses offer flexitime, while only 30 per cent of all small firms do, which suggests that women business owners are more likely than all business owners to accommodate the special work needs of their employees.”

“This gap widens as business size increases, with 40 per cent of women-owned firms with 25 or more employees offering flexitime, compared with only 19 per cent of all firms of approximately the same size.”

Involvement in the professional development of employees is another area where women-owned businesses differ in the benefits opportunities provided. Twenty-one percent of women-owned businesses offer tuition reimbursement programs, compared with only 8 per cent of all small businesses.

“The employee benefits offered by women-owned businesses make it evident that these firms are not only a powerful economic force, but are also an important and influential social force,” says Ivana Milojevic.

“At every stage in their businesses, even when the organisations are young or small, women business owners provide their employees with a comprehensive package of benefits which set the standard for the rest of society.”

Patricia Aburdene and John Naisbitt, authors of Megatrends for Women (1992), agree that the trend is toward a women’s leadership style, based on openness, trust, ongoing education, compassion and understanding. Women are more likely to succeed because women admit they need help and surround themselves with good people: they are cautions, strategic risk takers, whose resourcefulness and resolve increase as circumstance become more difficult (this from a study by Avon Corporation and an American based research firm).

Qualities usually mentioned include attitudes towards team building and consensus. For example, a study of 550 city managers in the US showed that women were more likely than their male counterparts to incorporate citizen input, facilitate communication and encourage citizen involvement in their decision-making.
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panel – WOMEN AT WORK

Women-owned businesses are now employing more people in the United States than the Fortune 500 companies worldwide.

The number of women-owned firms in the United States has jumped 103 percent from 1987 to 1999. Today there are 9.1 million, representing 38 percent of all businesses and employing more than 27.5 million people.

In 1987 two million female-owned businesses had $US25bn in sales. One year later, five million female-owned businesses had $US83bn in sales.

Top growth industries for women-owned businesses between 1987 and 1999 were construction, wholesale trade, transportation/ communications, agribusiness, and manufacturing.

Women-owned businesses are as financially sound and creditworthy as the typical firm in the U.S. economy, and are more likely to remain in business than the average US firm.

Around the world,  women-owned firms comprise between one-quarter and one-third of the businesses in the formal economy, and are likely to play an even greater role in informal sectors.

In Japan, the number of women managers is still small (around 300,000), but it has more than doubled over the past 10 years.

In Australia, the proportion of women working in their own business is also growing. Women working in their own business in Australia numbered 216,300 in 1983-84 and 272,400 in 1989-90, an increase of approximately 26 per cent.