Cities Create Their Futures (2003)

Sohail Inayatullah[1]

“Cities to play a major role in global governance, in a reformed United Nations”

“Digitalization, aging, globalization, global warming, new viruses, as well as expanded expectations, all point to dramatic changes in the nature of Mayoral Responsibilities”

“Nothing will change in my role as Mayor in twenty years – just more of the same.”

These were some of the perspectives articulated by 96 Mayors from around the Asia-Pacific Region at the October 20-22 Asia-Pacific Cities Summit 2003. Held in Brisbane, Queensland, Mayors and civic leaders embarked on a foresight process to anticipate future problems, develop scenarios of the future city, and articulate a preferred vision of the “Future of the City”.

Along with plenary sessions with world renowned speakers such as green architect Ken Yeang, Time Magazine hero of the planet Vandana Shiva, “Alternative Nobel” Right Livelihood winner Johan Galtung, Feminist Futurist Ivana Milojevic, City Planner Steven Ames, Chairman of the Future 500 and former CEO of Mitsubishi Electric America Tachi Kiuchi, Mayors met in a series of sessions to chart out the direction of the future city. The sessions were facilitated by political scientist and professor of futures studies and social sciences, Sohail Inayatullah.

Familiar Ground

The first session was familiar ground for Mayors as they identified current issues (solving problems is why they were elected to their positions in the first place). Some of these issues included population drift (rural to city, small to large cities), traffic congestion, growth occurring faster than infrastructure development, lack of partnership between city and business, loss of cultural heritage, long term water supply, lack of skills of the workforce, lack of support of central government to local government and lack of employment opportunities. The main overall categories of current problems were: sustainability and the challenges of increased growth; infrastructure decline and affordability; governance, environmental protection and resource scarcity, and community capacity.

Mayors, of course, spoke from their personal experiences. Taipei Deputy Mayor Chin-Der Ou challenged Mayors to think not only of SARS but of future viruses.  Mayors from Fijian cities (Gani from Nadi, Simmons from Labasa, Goundar from Lautoka) spoke of the challenges of a central government that was not sympathetic to local issues. Mayor Sirajuddin Haji Salleh  of Ipoh commented that globalization – in the form of increased travel and heightened information – had raised the expectation of Ipoh citizens. They expected Ipoh to have the same levels of “development” (services, for example) as an American or European city, New York or London, for example.

From current issues, Mayors moved to identifying future problems. To do so, Mayors were asked to identify drivers that were pushing us into the future. The drivers selected included the usual suspects:  Population growth, Economic and Cultural Globalization, and Environmental Changes.

Based on these drivers, Mayors then focused on emerging issues. The purpose of this was so that they could better anticipate the future and thus better meet the changing needs of citizens (and new stakeholders – global corporations, global non-governmental organizations, global institutions). These issues included what could go wrong but also opportunities for greater prosperity and democratization.

Along with the expected issue of the increased income gap between the haves and have nots being created by globalization, Mayors saw that the future would make their roles  more complex. They would have to address issues such as the ethics associated with medical and technological advancements, e-governance, as well as the broader issue of the role of the civic leader in a digitalized e-city. And along with a squeeze from the Central Government – in terms of less funds but more responsibilities – Mayors would be caught in a squeeze from nature, with extensive competition for water and other natural resources. Aging as well would change the nature of the city, leading some cities to becoming increasingly dysfunctional and others far becoming retirement centers. Along with the demographic shift of aging, immigration, especially the new wave of  global knowledge workers (and refugees), would change the face of the city.

But through all the changes, the Mayors were clear that their role would be to ensure that communities stayed connected. It was creating strong and healthy communities that was central, focusing on relationship building. This was a central point made by Caboolture, Mayor Joy Leishman. Without a leadership role – developing a vision of the future and creating structures and processes that could deliver that the future – cities would find themselves swamped by a rapidly transforming global, regional and local worlds.

Scenarios

From these issues, four scenarios emerged.

The first was a warning of what could go wrong if technocratism overwhelmed governance. This was High-Tech Anomie, with technologization leading not to greater community building but to further alienation. In this future, the internet would become a site of fragmentation and crime, drug shopping, for example. Improvements in genetics would only benefit the rich, creating cities divided by class.

The second was a future where Mayors were unable to meet the changing expectations of citizens. Democratization, globalization, a highly educated, technology savvy population demanding instant response from cities would lead to a condition of permanent crisis. Leadership would succumb to these pressures and citizens would resort to undemocratic expressions to get their needs met.

The third future was one where Mayors spent most of their time and resources on disaster management. Whether it was SARS (and future diseases from genetic errors) or HIV or the global water crisis, cities should expect a difficult and bleak future, where survival was of primary importance.

The fourth future was far more hopeful. Mayors argued that with a highly educated and informed populace, their jobs would become that of the facilitator. Their role would be focused on the capacity building of city employees and citizens. Creating learning organizations and communities would become the vehicle wherein citizens took far more responsibility for of the future of their city.  Part of being a learning community was to embed in the city, processes of conflict resolution – mediation and arbitration – within their communities,  so that the rights of individuals and groups and the pressure of social advancement could be negotiated.

The first three scenarios required leadership to ensure that the trends were managed or that they did not occur, while the last was focused on what could be done to anticipate and accommodate any future.

Fishbowl scenarios

The next session was a plenary fishbowl wherein these scenarios were tested.. Along with speakers Johan Galtung, Vandana Shiva, and Tachi Kiuchi, were Mayors Tim Quinn of Brisbane, Mayor Sirajuddin Haji Salleh  of Ipoh, Mayor Ho Pin Teo of North West District of Singapore, and of Mayor Robert Bell of Gosford. In an interactive session, led by Inayatullah, these futures were refined.

Galtung evoked the rainforest to imagine the future of the city. As Ken Yeang had argued earlier, the built environment should be, and could be, integrated into the natural environment. Not only would cost savings results – energy bills, health costs,  – but the beauty of the city would be restored.[2] Green could become gold. Vandana Shiva reminded participants that for cities to create the futures they wanted they had to challenge the strategies and tactics of large private corporations, particularly in the areas of water management.[3] Water, she asserted, must remain a public resource, and, as much as possible, cities needed to ensure that globalization did not erode democratic decision-making processes. Tachi  Kiuchi, as well, focused on the Rainforest as the guiding image of the future. City design and planning had to be based on different principles – cooperative evolution between nature and city, technology and community, for example. Mayor Ho Pin Teo brought out practical examples of how Singapore was becoming more green and healthy while retaining its business focus

However, not all in the audience were impressed. The city as international and , prosperous, focused on economic development, attracting large projects (theme parks, for example) – , that this the Big International City outlook was brought up as a counter image – indeed, as the only realistic future. The Mayor of Cairns, Kevin Byrne, in particular, argued that the Rainforest as guiding metaphor for the city was inappropriate. Mayor Wang Hong Ju of Chongqing, as well, saw prosperity and internationalization as primary.

However, fish bowl participants saw that the Big City scenario only as only a continuation of the present. Current trends would lead to expected outcomes:.

1.      A divided city, with a number of fault lines: between (A1) the winners and losers of globalization, (B) the young and old, (C) local residents and new migrants, and (D) the on-line and the off-line.

2.      Urban sprawl would exacerbate loss of green areas, destroy livable communities by continuing the car-highway-oil paradigm of the future.

3.      As well, in the current model, pollution and, traffic jams would just worsen, building more development would only lead to more buildings, and not only increased costs (The World Bank estimates that the cost to the world ofis $500[4] billion a year is lost on deaths and injuries plus congestion, sprawl, noise loss of forests and farms, and carbon emissions)[5] but cities would miss the financial, social and cultural benefits of creating green and healthy cities.

4.      Furthermore, the current model would reduce democratization, reduce the capacity of local people to save community and public spaces and make decisions as to their own futures.

5.      Finally the Big City model was being discarded by most Western cities, as they searched for new visions to lead them forward. Copying a used-future was unlikely to lead to prosperity, rather the same old mistakes would be committed again.[6]

The debate was not resolved, however, with some considering these costs as externalities, part of the price for progress.

What is clear that the future should not be seen in simplistic terms. Rather, creating a clean, healthy, urban village, public and community space focused city, where people (social, environmental, and cultural capital was foundational) were the true landmarks, and not the tallest buildings, would lead to increased prosperity for all.  It was not the single bottom line of the developer or the radical green activist that was being called for but the triple bottom line of prosperity, social justice and environmentalism.

Not polluting – and ensuring that this did not happen via persuasion, fines and incentives – would enhance the desirability of the city.  Traditional notions of desirability were about size, grandness – the modern city – however, new notions are focused on individual health, community capacity building, well being and quality of life.  Case studies on the steps required to realize this future were presented by Prasit Pongbhaesat , the Deputy-Director General of Policy and Planning for Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (the healthy cities project) and by Deputy Mayor Chin-Der Oh of Taipei (the cities acclaimed recycling project)

VISION

The final session was focused on the preferred future. What type of city did Mayors desire? And how could cities work together to create a shared future? As expected there was not full agreement. Representatives were from a variety of cities, some with populations in the millions, others in the thousands, some the economic size of nations, others without a true middle class, however, general points were agreed upon.

1.      The city needs to be clean and green.

2.      The city must focus on creativity and innovation, instead of traditional models and knowledge structures. This was the best way to become prosperous.

3.      The city must be an inclusive place of opportunity, offering equity of access to citizens.

4.      The city must balance the immediacy of growth with protection of the environment, of people’s culture and traditions in the wake of globalisation.

5.      The city of the future needs to be a city where opportunities are available to all its citizens, meaningful work, education, empowerment and self worth – that is survival, well-being, identity and freedom needs must be met.

6.      Cities must remain people friendly – true communities – and ensure that their decisions today did not foreclose the options of future generations.

While there was general agreement, the debate between the large international city and the green clean and healthy image was not resolved.

However, clear steps were formulated so that cities could create their desired futures.

Vision 2020 / Summit City Commitments

A.     Enhance city relationship

1.      In the short term, foster information sharing between local governments through a range of expanded exchange programs.

2.      In the medium term, strengthen the role and outcomes of Sister City relationships, to include technology, resource exchanges and capacity development.

3.      In the long run, creating a global association of local governments, to move towards cities as central to Global Governance, making the first steps towards a House of Cities.

B.       Enhance the green city

4.   Focus on environmental education for young people, with a view to protecting the environment of the future.

5.      Building consensus between all levels of government on key issues of environmental protection and the health of cities.

C.       Enhance capacity

6.      Actively engage young people in the Summit process, with delegates bringing one young person from their city to the next meeting, to ensure that their views are heard and acted upon, especially as their experiences are being formed by different drivers for change.

7.      Enhance volunteer participation in community capacity building in cities, in particular through local government workforces.

8.      Investigate new ways to use technology to encourage participation of all citizens in local government decision making.  For example, chat rooms, SMS messaging on the future vision for cities, e-democracy and so on.

D.  Ensure Future-Orientation

9.      Evaluate these issues on an ongoing basis at future Ssummits, in particular the Summit of 2023, seeing visioning the future as an ongoing process.

10.  Continue to measure the performance and outcomes of Asia Pacific Summits, to determine the most viable model for future city interactions.

Finally, a conclusion of the Summit was that a full record of the proceedings of the Summit and the outcomes agreed by Mayors should be placed in a time capsule, to be opened and presented to the Asia Pacific Summit of 2023, to determine progress on the Summit City Vision.

As a city planner of sorts, Lao-Tsu once said: “A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step”.

[1] Sohail Inayatullah, Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan, Sunshine Coast University, Australia and visiting academic, Queensland University of Technology. www.metafuture.orgs.inayatullah@qut.edu.au

[2] Recent studies assert that urban sprawl is directly related to obesity. City design thus correlated with health indicators. Reid Ewing et al, “Relationship between urban sprawl and physical activity, obesity and morbidity,” The Science of Health Promotion (September/October, Vol 18, No. 1), 2003. Given the direct correlation between obesity and a variety of illnesses (heart disease, cancer, to begin with) city planners have a lot to answer for.

[3] Urban sprawl is also directly related to water issues. For example, we now know that suburban sprawl – strip malls, office buildings and other paved areas – have worsened the drought covering half the United States by blocking billions of gallons of rainwater from seeping through the soil to replenish ground water.   Tom Dogget, “Suburban Sprawl Blocks Water, Worsens U.S. Drought,” Science – Reuters. 28/8/2003

[4] Choosing the Future of Transportation, Molly O’Meara Sheehan (Research Associate, Worldwatch Institute), The Futurist, 35:4, July-Aug 2001, 50-56.

[5] More than one million people a year are killed on the world’s roads, and ten times as many become disabled. By 2020, road traffic injuries will be the third largest cause of “disease” in the world, according to
a research team led by epidemiologist Ian Roberts of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. http://www.cochrane.org/cochrane/revabstr/AB003734

[6] Exemplary is a recent issue of Newsweek (October-December 2003). Andres Duany, “The Best of the West,” 55, argues that “the urban landscape is changing fast. But if Asia doesn’t change course, its cities will be dark and dismal.” Instead of symbolic power – the largest city – it is quality of life that has become more important. While hard to measure, some questions are key. Writes Duany: “ Is the city a pleasant place to be? Is there free time, or is it consumed by commuting? Is the air clean? Do people have enough income to buy good housing or is it tied up in purchasing automobiles, which are necessary to get around?” Duany offers the following choices: Asian cities can be like “Dallas and Los Angeles: stuffed with high-rises and surrounded by jammed highways, shopping centers that sprawl across what was once countryside. Or they can be like Portland or Boston: cities of compact, mixed-use neighborhood with a variety of housing: pleasant, walkable streets lined with shops, and a well-run public transit system.” Of course, the key is not to purchase any used future, but to vision the preferred future within Asia’s own historical terms and alternative futures.

Futures Dreaming: Challenges From Outside and on the Margins of the Western World (2003)

Ivana Milojevic and Sohail Inayatullah

Abstract

In this article, we challenge the hegemony of western science fiction, arguing that western science fiction is particular even as it claims universality. Its views generally remain based on ideas of the future as forward time. In contrast, in non-western science fiction the future is seen outside linear terms: as cyclical or spiral, or in terms of ancestral time. In addition, western science fiction has focused on the good society as created by technological progress, while non-western science fiction and futures thinking has focused on the fantastic, on the spiritual, and on the realization of eupsychia—the perfect self.

However, most theorists assert that the non-west has no science fiction, ignoring Asian and Chinese science fiction history. As well, western science fiction continues to ‘other’ the non-west as well as those on the margins of the west (African-American woman, for example).

Nonetheless, while most western science fiction remains trapped in binary opposites—alien/non-alien; masculine/feminine; insider/outsider—writers from the west’s margins are creating texts that contradict tradition and modernity, seeking new ways to transcend difference. Given that the imagination of the future creates the reality of tomorrow, creating new science fictions is not just an issue of textual critique but of opening up possibilities for all our futures.

Keywords: Science fiction, Non-west, Alternative Futures

“Science fiction has always been nearly all white, just as until recently, it’s been nearly all male” (Butler [1]).

“Science fiction has long treated people who might or might not exist—extra-terrestrials. Unfortunately, however, many of the same science fiction writers who started us thinking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial life did nothing to make us think about here-at home variation—women, blacks, Indians, Asians, Hispanics, etc” [2].

Is all science fiction western? Is there non-western science fiction? If so, what is its nature? Does it follow the form and content of western science fiction, or is it rendered different by its own local civilizational historical processes and considerations? Has western science fiction moulded the development of the science fiction of the ‘other’, including feminist science fiction, in such a way that anything coming from outside the west is a mere imitation of the real thing? Perhaps non-western science fiction is a contradiction in terms. Or is there authentic non-western fiction which offers alternative visions of the future, of the ‘other’?
Paradigms in Science Fiction

In Positions and Presuppositions in Science Fiction, Darko Suvin argues there are three dominating paradigms of science fiction [3]. The first is the Asimov’s technocratic, wedded to the notional universe of nineteenth-century science, from thermodynamics to behaviorism, man as subject and the universe as an object of cognition. The second model is the classical stateless socialist vision of utopia as shown in Yefremov’s works; and the third is the cosmic/mystical spiritual technocracy of Lem [4]. While Lem might be the most sympathetic to the non-west, all three paradigms dramatically miss the other—the role of family, of woman, of the spiritual. They are unable to account for the worldview of the other within the knowledge categories of the other. Indeed the nature of the west is such that the other has no identity except as a people to be colonized, developed or appropriated—to be mapped onto the body of the west.

African, Asian and women’s identities often exist in other paradigms. First, they are concerned about their historical identity. Second, they are concerned about the collective, the family, as the individual here exists in a space alternative from the western version. Third, the spiritual, or the emotional, the softer side of what it means to be human is more important. This said, it is crucial to note that while there are deep structures, they are played out differently; it is in local specific conditions that structures are both created and expressed—it is history that creates identity. For example, in India and Islam, the historical struggle has been on the gendered nature of public and private space, while in the west, it has been between individualism and the collective, democracy and tyranny.

Yet most anthologies, encyclopedias and histories of science fiction take a universalistic view of science fiction and posit that non-western science fiction is non-existent. The authors they select are “nearly all white…[as well as]… nearly all male”. In addition, it is often thought: how could it be possible for non-western societies to develop images of technologically advanced future societies since they themselves are pre-industrial, pre-modern? For example, although even in the least technologically developed societies, we see ‘cyborgs’ walking on prosthetic legs—their flesh-and-blood legs having been blown up by land mines—cyborg as a category which explores the future (man-in-machine and machine-in-man) has not been imagined, envisioned, or dreamed of in these societies.

There is no conspiracy at work, it is simply that the lenses used by science fiction writers are those given by deep cosmological codes, in this case, those of western civilization. Science fiction, which almost by definition challenges conventional paradigms, has been unable to transcend its own epistemological limitations.

In today’s pre-modern societies, the imagination of the future has not played a part in creating a scientific-technological society, nor has it helped individuals prepare for it. Rather, technological and scientific futures come from outside with few warnings. On the other hand, societies that lead the way in scientific progress also lead the way in creating spaces where the consequences of that progress can be debated, in, for example, creating a public debate on the nature of science. Only writers in western countries, claims Philip John Davies “have had the luxury of being able to indulge in an orgy of debates over definition, form, and politics [of science fiction]”[5]. Thus, the current reality that Euro-American white authors dominate science fiction.

Utopia: Past or Future

Taking a paradigmatic view, to assert that science fiction exists only in the west is merely to favour one particular form of a much wider endeavor. Science fiction thus should not merely be about the technological as defined in forward time but the creation of plausible future worlds from a range of civilizational perspectives [6]. Science fiction is not just about debating the consequences of scientific progress. It is also about creating utopian or at least eutopian (the good, not perfect) societies of the future. This utopian tradition, either in the form of utopias (positive visioning) or in the form of dystopias (warnings) is highly developed in the west. However, such a need for utopian visioning does not exist in societies that have decided that they have already lived their utopia. For example, in Islamic civilization, there is no central need for science fiction because the perfect world already existed, this was the time of the Prophet [7]. There was a perfect democratic state guided by shura (consultation) and there was a wise, perfect, leader who could unify society. The problem has been to re-achieve this state, not create other worlds. In Indian civilization as well, there was Rama Rajya, the mythical kingdom of Rama, as well the time when Krishna ruled over Bharat (India) [8].

In African culture, as well, writes John Mbiti, utopia exists in the past. Time recedes toward the Golden Age, the Zamani period [9]. It is history then that has been and remained central. This does not mean these civilizations are not future-oriented but that the imagination of the future is based on recreating an idealized past [10]. Centuries of colonization have further influenced the central need to recover the past, as the past has been systematically denied to them (either completely erased as with African-Americans or given in a mutilated form as with western developmentalism, that is, as an inferior history that must be transformed). By recovering their own authentic pasts, these societies intend to articulate their own authentic visions of the future [11].

In “Black to the Future”, Mark Dery asks: “Can a community whose past has been deliberately rubbed out, and whose energies have subsequently been consumed by the search for legible traces of its history, imagine possible futures? Furthermore, isn’t the unreal estate of the future already owned by the technocrats, futurologists, and set designers—white to a man—who have engineered our collective fantasies” [12].

Given the reality of fractured societies, can science fiction created outside the west be truly alternative or is it more likely to remain a poor imitation of western science fiction? Is there any other alternative to diminishing the influence of American frontier science fiction except by creating even more violent and even more virtual future worlds?

Can non-western writers, who are often concerned not with utopias but with eusychias—the search for the perfect self—make any sense in the futures and science fiction field? How can cultures that see the spiritual not as exotic or compartmentalized but as the foundation of life, implicated in every packet of consciousness, begin a dialogue with societies imagined in mainstream science fiction, that are replicas of individualistic, secular American/western visions? Thus not only is the future constructed differently (it is past, cyclical, spiral or ancestor-based) but instead of focusing on society, it is the imagination of the perfect self—the enlightened being—that is central to the non-west.

The Fantastic

Another reason why non-western science fiction has not developed as a separate arena of writing because in some cultures the ‘fantastic’ is part of daily life. Myth has not been separated from lived history. There is science fiction but broadly understood, with a different space, meaning and importance. For example, for Indian mystics, other worlds are realizable through astral travel, and aliens do visit the planet—to learn meditation from Indian gurus. Moreover, we are all aliens since we take birth in different planets each life. Krishna lives on Vrindavan, not heaven, but a real planet in the cosmos [13]. What are considered miracles by those in the west (bringing someone back from the dead, walking on water) are simple occult powers one gains from years of discipline. There are numerous millennia-old stories about astral travel, aliens, repossession of souls/bodies, and even mechanical/artificial human beings [14].

Star travel is a common topic in as diverse literary traditions such as the Chinese, Japanese, Australian Aboriginal, Iroquois (Mohawk) Native American and African. In the Chinese tradition there is a tale titled, “Chang E Goes to the Moon” (by Liu An, 197-122 BCE) in which a woman flies to the moon after she steals an elixir of immortality from her husband [15]. Taketori Monogatari is a 10th century Japanese “space fiction … in the genre of folklore” [16] and tells of the Princess Moonlight who first comes to Earth and then returns to the Moon [17]. According to Isao Uemichi, her popularity and the desire people have for her “may eventually turn into a yearning for the better world (the lunar paradise) to which she returned” [18].

A creation story from the Wong-gu-tha (by Mimbardda and re-told by Josie Boyle) tells of two Spirit men (from the far end of the Milky Way) and seven sisters (stars of the Milky way) who were sent to Yulbrada (the Earth) by the Creator Jindoo (the Sun) to shape it. Woddee Gooth-tha-rra (Spirit men) made the hills, the valleys, the lakes and the oceans. Seven Sisters beautified the earth with flowers, trees, birds, animals and “other creepy things”. Six sisters returned to the Milky Way but one of the sisters fell in love with the two Spirit men, and so their special powers were taken away. Two men and the woman became mortal and they became the parents of the earth, made laws and the desert people [Aboriginal Australians] [19]. In the Iroquois tradition there is “The Woman Who Fell from the Sky” [20] and in Africa, Mrs. Onyemuru, ferrywoman at Oguta Lake, tells a story of Ogbuide, the Queen of Women who comes from the moon [21].

In technologically developed societies, spaceships have replaced golden chariots but desire and myth have remained foundational. Western literature and imagination—in terms of the fantastic—has moved from Earth, the mystical world and the past to the future. This desire for the stars eventually has transformed myth into the reality. It has entered public space, while in the non-west, tales of the mysterious, alternative worlds remain in private space, in the Indian tradition, as secrets revealed to the chela by the guru.

Alternatively, it can be argued that tales of space travel can, at best, claim to be “only as prototypical predecessors of science fiction because science fiction is a distinctly modern form of literature” [22]. Having said this, it is also important to note that while science fiction has becoming increasingly a popular genre all over the world, not only prototypical predecessors but also very early works of non-western science fiction writers are being forgotten or marginalized.

Thus, the history of science fiction is written almost exclusively from its Euro-American history. Indeed, even in two civilizations with their own indigenous roots, both Wu Dingbo in China and Koichi Jamano in Japan testify that the development of contemporary Chinese and Japanese science fiction has been based on western rather than traditional stories:

Japanese writers made their debuts deeply influenced by traditional western criteria of SF. Instead of creating their own worlds, they immersed themselves totally into the translated major works of Anglo-American SF. This is like moving into a prefabricated house; the SF genre has grown into out culture regardless of whether there was a place for it [23].
Non-western Science Fiction: Creating Alternative Worlds

Such then is the blindness to tradition and the fascination with the west, that non-western writers do not use their non-western roots as a springboard for their creativity. It is crucial to remember that while conventional wisdom believes that it is Karel Capek “the man who invented robots” (the word robot derived from the Czech word robiti or robata—“to work” or “a worker”) [24] the ‘robot’ has been in the Chinese literary tradition since the fourth century.

In Zhang Zhan’s “Tangwen” in Lie Zi (The Book of Lie Zi, written around 307-313) Yanshi a clever craftsman produces a robot that is capable of singing and dancing. However, this robot keeps on staring at the emperor’s queen. This enrages the emperor who issues an order to kill Yanshi. But then Yanshi opens the robot’s chest and the emperor beholds the artificial human [25]. Robot stories also appear in 7th and 11th century China as well [26].

And while the Islamic tradition looks for its utopias in tradition, we have examples such as Rokeya Sakhawat Hossain who wrote Sultana’s Dream in 1905, a virtually unknown short story that is a predecessor of better known feminist fiction classics such as, for example, Herland (1915). Born in Pairaband, a village in what is now Bangladesh, Rokeya Sakhawat Hossain was a “courageous feminist writer and activist who worked all her life to remove what she called the ‘purdah of ignorance’” [27]. Given that most utopian imaging is political it comes as no surprise that in Sultana’s Dream, Hossain challenges the seclusion of women and their exclusion from political and economic life. In the far-off Ladyland, ladies rule over the country and control all social matters, while gentlemen are kept in the murdanas to mind babies, to cook, and to do all sorts of domestic work. Men are locked as they “do or at least are capable of doing no end of mischief” [28]. You can not trust those untrained men out of doors: it is unfair to shut in the harmless women and let loose the men, remarks sister Sara, Sultana’s conversationalist from the other world. Women in Sultana’s Dream have the difficult task of rebuilding all of society, which they do through education and science. In her utopia, Hossain builds the world without “crime or sin”, where science is used to service the society, where the Queen aims at converting the whole country into one grand garden, and where religion is based on Love and Truth. While Sultana finds herself in an ecotopia, the development of science is still seen as extremely important. The genius of this “unusual story” lies in the transformation of an issue—purdah—to represent “a whole range of patriarchal practices and ideas that shut out the possibility of another world, a world, … that could easily be realized if women were allowed to exercise the wisdom and skills they already have” [29].

Similarly, in Africa, in the continent locked in its ‘past’, Bessie Head creates through her novels better worlds, for women, for migrants, for blacks and ultimately all people. In her fiction she has sought to construct “her vision of the ideal human society—tolerant, accepting, nurturing” [30]. This vision of a harmonious and tolerant society focused on agricultural cooperatives [31] is a far cry from Bessie Head’s country of origin, South Africa during Apartheid. As a refugee in Botswana—having fled South Africa—she builds a vision of society where there is solidarity and cooperation between different genders, classes and races as an “antidote to the exclusion of tribe, race, class and gender that operates in Southern Africa” [32].

In Thai science fiction, we see in the film Kawow tee Bangpleng (Cuckoos at Bangplent, 1994, directed by Nirattisai Kaljareuk) [33] juxtaposition of the local Buddhist temple with the spacecraft. Writes commentator, Adam Knee: “ the image of an ancient statue of Buddha with the craft visible through windows behind it in particular stands as a striking and fertile emblem for the film, forcing a negotiation between Asian and alien, ancient and modern, static and mobile” [34]. The spacecraft sends out a beam that impregnates the local women. The children born are aliens. Over the length of the movie, writes Knee, it becomes clear that the goal is to take over the planet, since their home planet is dying. The local townspeople however remain sympathetic to the children since they have given birth to them and reared them. They are their’s, alien notwithstanding. Local monks—who are psychic like the alien children—as well intervene when the police are about to attack the aliens, once a series of troubling incidents begin.

Knee adds, and this is crucial in this dialogue between alien and Buddhism:

“The monk continues to try to convince Somporn [the alien leader], however, of the importance of keeping his emotions in check, as well as of ‘extending compassion’ to others, along the lines of Buddhist teachings. Somporn generally scoffs at these suggestions but… nevertheless grudgingly agrees to let some of the youths use their alien powers to help the humans when floods threaten the town. As an indirect result of their exertions, however, the youths start to fall ill and die; an autopsy reveals that another physical difference—a lack of a spleen—has rendered them susceptible to earthly diseases. The aliens realize that the planet will not sustain their race and that the survivors must return to the ship; [the alien] Somporn now comes to appreciate the monk’s message of empathy and bids him an affectionate farewell, as do the other alien children to their sobbing human parents, before ascending to the sky” [35].

Concludes Knee:

“The emphasis in Kawow then—very unlike that of most western science fiction films–is on local adaptation to rather than expulsion of the alien, which is met in turn by learning and adaptation on the part of the alien. This is made most explicit in the extensive scenes of interaction between the abbot and Somporn, the leader of the alien group and correspondingly the most recalcitrant, as well as the most disdainful of human habits and, more specifically, the Thai-Buddhist worldview” [36].

While this is partly about Buddhist notions of compassion, it is also intrinsic to some experiences of colonialism, of responding to othering by inclusion, instead of continuing the process and becoming like the dominator. The way forward then becomes an understanding of our mutual mortality, human and alien.

Science Fiction as a Marginal Genre

While there is science fiction in all cultures, it is only the west that has systematized science and fiction, made it into an industrial endeavor, and created a particular brand of literature called science fiction. Part of this process has been the privileging its own from of fiction and seeing the dreaming of others as irrelevant, as duplication/ replica/extension (Japanese science fiction, manga and anime) or naive (feminist science fiction).

However, science fiction itself has also been a marginal genre. This marginality has allowed and been a cause of its ability to open spaces for thinking the unthinkable, and exploring unknown unknowns. The marginality of science fiction in society is in direct proportion with science fiction’s radicalism. As a marginal genre, science fiction has explored ideas otherwise not cherished by the rest of mainstream/conservative society. In Russia/Soviet Union, science fiction has often allowed spaces for powerful social critique, for dissent. However, in different periods, Russian/Soviet science fiction served important social control functions: for example, to spread Bolshevism among the young, skilled, urban workers prior to the revolution or to support industrial Five Year Plans during the Stalinist era [37]. In American movies, as cinema technology advances science fiction is increasingly losing its ‘edge’ and becoming entertainment that seeks to reinforce nationalism and the power of the nation-state. Contrast the 1980’s Blade Runner with the late 1990’s Independence Day or Starship Troopers.

While packaging itself as a ‘pure entertainment’ American science fiction continues to serve social control functions. One is to prepare and de-sensitise the populace for the consequences of post-modern global capitalism. For example, the movie Gattaca, created as a ‘what if this continues’ type of scenario still serves the social function of supporting continued eugenic efforts (present since the beginning of the colonisation) of excluding the different and creating a perfect (white) human being.

The other function is what Marx has called to “dull the blade of class (and gender and minority’s or postcolonial) struggle”. For example, movies like The Matrix, Deep Impact, Armageddon, Independence Day, Mars Attacks apart from using conservative and overdone man-the-hero-saving-the-world theme are there to teach us that we should be happy with our present (social) order as the future can be much worse. High-tech progress may lead to disaster. Catharsis and relief comes after the threat to our future-as-the-continuation-of-the-present has been successfully battled and defeated. The meteor, or the comet, or aliens, or artificial intelligence or any other ‘Other’ who threaten the powerful male elite (usually combining male scientists, brilliant male outcasts and government) are after combat defeated. Patriarchy, liberalism and statism win, claiming to have liberated all and everyone.

However, there are many levels to the discourses under operation. The Matrix, for example, can be read as a metaphor for our present lives and societies (focused on material advancement) and as a call for the spiritual, in which the veil of ignorance is removed and enlightenment revealed, with all limitations seen merely as Maya, illusion (similarly to Contact). Yet these subtle spiritual meanings are drowned by the masculinist focus on power battles. For example, Keanu Reeves can be read as a clever programmer within the western frame or from a non-western Tantric, Vedic or Buddhist frame as a bodhisattva, returning to liberate our selves trapped by technocracy and materialism. The medium becomes the message, massaging us into a light speed of violence. These movies certainly fail to become a tool that can “subvert the central myths of origin of western Culture with their longing for fulfillment in apocalypse” [38]. Ultimately, Reeves or Neo becomes neither programmer nor bodhisattva, instead sacrificing self for the good of peace, becomes the Christ savior returned. The Matrix Revolutions – even as it challenges notions of life, machine, human and virtual – is foundationally Christian (sacrifice and Christ the savior) and Western technological (we make tools and thereafter they make us).  However, it does attempt to challenge the ego of the West (linear, crisis based, technological) with the alter-ego of the West (feminine, green, organic).  The Oracle thus becomes the gaian shakti figure countering the male architect of the Matrix and hyper-masculinity of Machine city (and its sperm-line machines swarming Zion). Thus some layering is there. However, if other cultural myths had been used as resources, far more depth would have been possible. But other cultures are not seen as real unto themselves.

Thus another role current mainstream science fiction plays in American and subsequently global society is to ‘other’ difference. This is most often done by projecting difference onto the alien. Our terrestrial differences are not owned, rather, they are exported into outer space (foreign space). The alien does not only help create our identity (in terms of the binary oppositions) but is also seen as a danger to us and should consequently be exterminated. The ‘othering’ of the difference can also be done through picturing the other in total submission. One example is The Handmaiden’s Tale, a powerful feminist critique transformed into voyeuristic feast for patriarchal males and serving a similar social function as the pornographic, The Story of O. It also encourages us to think that our current patriarchy does not look that bad after all.  Women are also the monsters of the future, writes Rosi Braidotti in her essay, “Cyberteratologies,” aptly subtitled, “Female Monsters Negotiate the Other’s Participation in Humanity’s Far Future.” [39]  Argues Braidotti:” Contemporary social imaginary .. directly blames women for postmodernity’s crisis of identity. In one of those double binds that occur so often in regard to representing those people marked as different, women are portrayed as unruly elements who should be controlled – represented as so many cyber-Amazons in need of governance.” [40] Women as monster becomes the future, with the solution that of Superman and the Superstate taking over the role of birthing and caring.

Yet another way in which the othering of the difference is done is by ridiculing the Other. One example is in the highest grossing movie in 1999, Star Wars: Episode One, The Phantom Menace. One can get a sense of the worldview of Lucas and others by simply analysing the accents and sites of action. The Jedi Knights speak with western (a mix of British/West Coast American) accents (that is, in terms of today’s categories of accents, no accent at all). They are the highest of humanity. The lowest are those who live on the planet Tatooine. They are made to look like Muslim Arabs. But they are just uncivilized and not to be worried about. The danger comes from the Trade Federation. They speak with a mixture of an East Asian and Eastern European accent, the twin dangers to the west—East Asia in terms of creating a new economic system, and Eastern Europe as the (orthodox, not reinvented) traditionalism of the west. And what of Africans and Islanders? They are, of course, not quite real, as in all mythologies, friendly natives, slightly silly, happy-go-lucky (in Star Wars, the Gungans, the underwater race on Naboo). Of course, this typology was denied by Lucas, as it should be, how could he see the air he breathes, fish cannot deconstruct water, and the west is unable to see the world it has penned. But while it appears that the mythic brilliance of the movie is that real evil comes from within, from the west itself, in the form of the desire for more power, the emperor (Senator and later Emperor Palpatine); this, however, ends up being a jingoistic concern with democracy, with the American way of Life. Essentially it is a battle of democracy against despotism, with the good guys a mixture of Californian pop mysticism and true democracy, and the bad guys as foreigners and as those who engage in trade wars. The latest Star Wars installment thus even as if it appears that it is venturing into worlds far away, in fact, reinscribes present constructions of self and other, west and Non-west.

This analysis is not meant as a contribution to postmodern cultural critique but as a pointer of dangers ahead. Our collective imaginations become deadened as Star Wars becomes the naturalized form of science fiction. Other cultures see themselves as less, and either seek vengeance through religious extremism or create schizophrenic personalities in which they other themselves. Globalism continues it march onwards, reducing the possibility of alternative futures, particularly from others. Current science fiction forgets that we are all migrants to the future.

Frank Herbert’s Dune (the  2001 TV/video release as well as the earlier 1984 movie) appears to move away from this construction of the other, by empowering the freman, the others in the movie. However, at a deeper level, the other is either ridiculed or seen as the romantic warrior, the mystic—Orientalized. Removed from civilization, the freman are intimate with the desert, and develop a mystic bond with the spice. Their mystical power is countered to the technological prowess of the Emperor and the House of Harkonnens. And yet, they do not find their salvation through their own agency, but it is the ‘white’ Paul Atredis (as Lawrence of Arabia has done on this planet) who comes and saves them. He does go native, however, taking the freman name of Muad’Dib. It is not in them to develop or be victorious, it takes the overlord, the ruling class to provide freedom. Their ‘humanity’ is denied to them. And, their freedom does not transform the structure of feudalism but continues class rule, however, it is now the kinder House of Atredis that will now rule Thus, what appears as victory for the warrior and mystical freman is in fact a continuation of colonization. It is traditional linear macrohistory—The Orient cannot develop through its own creativity, it must be developed by the civilized. The style of speaking, the clothes all make clear that this is a battle within Europe (the emperor versus the Harkonnes versus the Atredis) with the freman (Bedouins) merely the backdrop to their cosmic intrigue. And nature—the worms—they are of course conquered by Paul Muad’Dib Atredis. With nature conquered, the non-west liberated, the evil powers in Europe defeated—and the spice (oil) safe—humanity can once again prosper. The empire is dead. Long live the empire.

From Space to High Noon

Far more obvious is how Star Wars and other science fiction functions to ‘push the western frontier’. Gregory Pfitzer claims that the most persistent myth in American culture, that of the frontier, has shown remarkable resilience since its firstly emerged in the 18th century [41]. In our times, what was once projected westward is now simply projected upward and outward [42]. “Western cowboys [are transformed] into space cowboys, high-noon gunfights into celestial shootouts, and frontier expansion into the politics of space ownership on the high frontier” [43]. Pfitzer concludes that such outdated frontier mythologies are doing American society damage: they do not help shape beneficial cultural self-images, bear little relationship to present realities and threaten to bind people too tightly to highly conventional, form-bound ideologies. He believes that new mythologies need to be considered, mythologies that will serve the culture better, especially those that “reverse exploitation and racism while prescribing more realistic avenues for public action” [44]. More recently, the frontier has gone from space to virtuality.

Some examples of how this is being done exist even in American society. For example, recent versions of the popular series Star Trek (Voyager and Deep Space Nine) challenges many of our old mythologies and given identities.  And even more so is the work of African-American authors, for example, Samuel Delany and Octavia Butler.

Ways Out

Labeled as “the only African-American woman writing science-fiction” Octavia Butler’s work challenges not only patriarchal myths, but also capitalist myths, racist myths, and feminist-utopian myths [45]. She also challenges “the binary oppositions of alien and non-alien, insider and outsider, masculine and feminine”, [46] undoing the essentialisms of tradition and modernity. Butler’s characters seem to face the same issue and dilemma: “they must force themselves to evolve, accepting differences and rejecting a world view that centers upon their lives and values, or become extinct” [47]. While in most science fiction the alien is seen as the (potential) destroyer of the human race, for Butler, aliens can save and improve the human race and also themselves. Cooperation is necessary, as often the only alternative is extinction. But the other is both external and internal. “The self and the other cannot exist separately. They are defined by one another, a central part of each other’s identity”, [48] and there is even the “desire for the alien, the other, for difference within ourselves” [49]. Butler’s work seem to suggest that old mythologies that produce “the hierarchies of center and margins, of colonizer and colonized, of alien and other, no longer provide an appropriate or adequate vocabulary with which to articulate the possibilities for change” [50]. In the words of Octavia Butler:

Human Beings fear difference… Oankali crave difference. Humans persecute their different ones, yet they need them to give themselves definition and status. Oankali seek difference and collect it. They need it to keep themselves from stagnation and overspecialization…when you feel a conflict, try to go the Oankali way. Embrace difference. [51]

The Politics and Futures of Science Fiction

“‘Fantasies’, of course, are never ideologically ‘innocent’ texts” [52]. But fantasies, including science fiction ones, can serve conservative ideologies that promote old divisions and interests of the dominant social/cultural/racial/gender group. Or they can serve ideologies which would unable us all to move forward and create truly innovative future societies. Science fiction images do not merely reflect our current anxieties and desires. Through their powerful visualisation they create the need for what is seen and encourage efforts to duplicate in the future, science fiction’s déjà vu. The litanies of our lives crave for myths to give them meaning. In turn, myths help create future litanies, as either their extensions or their oppositions. Science fiction and how it ‘others’ us, how it continues a particular civilization’s domination by assuming others do not have a science fiction or defining itself in exclusive terms (such that other cultures visions are merely the naively impossible) becomes part of the naturalising discourse of domination. However, science fiction with its focus on creating alternative world, on liberating us from our own mythologies, limitations, plays a pivotal role in liberating us from our own slaveries.

The Political-Economy of Imagination

If left alone, science fiction will continue its present role in supporting the cultural project of the only surviving ‘Empire’ at the beginning of the Third millennia (as time counted by the west).

Contemplating on the reasons for the explosion of science fiction and space fiction in our time, science fiction writer Doris Lessing claims that this explosion is happening because the nature of the human mind is undergoing an expansion process, it is being forced to expand [53]. She further states that science fiction and space fiction writers must explore “the sacred literatures of the world in the same bold way they take scientific and social possibilities to their logical conclusions…[We] make a mistake when we dismiss [sacred literature of all races and nations] as quaint fossils from a dead past” [54]. The rich traditions of many people of the world will make such science and utopian fiction of the future enormously exciting. It will be able to express the voices of peoples silenced by hundreds of years of western monoculture, of world capitalism. Science fiction can be a medium for not only subversion but also for the development of the authentic futures.

Writes Marge Piercy on feminist science fiction:

“One characteristic of societies imagined by feminists is how little isolated women are from each other. Instead of the suburban dream turned nightmare in which each house contained a woman alone and climbing the walls, or the yuppie apartment house where no one speaks but each has perfect privacy in her little electronic box, the societies women dream up tend to b a long coffee klatches or permanent causal meetings. Everybody is in everybody else’s hair .. society is decentralized .. nurturing is a strong value .. communal responsibility for a child begins at home.” [55]

The vision is certainly pastoral with Earth Rolling along. [56]

Of course, authentic futures are limited by the nature of the market. For example, in Latin America “most science fiction is brief, embodied in short stories rather then in novels … [which] … is due to the fact that it is more feasible to publish short fiction than to publish longer stories, as the editorial industry as well as the market is limited” [57].

There is also a great danger of producing “fragmented and inconsistent images … from the modern and premodern eras … interwoven with new and surprising cultural elements” [58]—of becoming cultural and “literary imposters as New Age Pipecarriers for any and all of The Nations” creating colonising visions that would surpass even the traditional ones.

Even lumping all non-western science fiction into one entity means submerging it into the category of ‘the Rest’ as defined by the Empire. It is therefore also important to remember that even within the category of ‘the Rest’ different others have different status, role and image being ascribed to them. The best science fiction undoes the defining categories it begins with.

Also, apart from ‘responding’ to dominant future images produced in the west as well as looking at possible prototypes or cultural predecessors, non-western science fiction writers need to fill in the empty spaces, create alternative histories and imagine past visions of the future as if they had been written.

Still the reality is that “Black Women do not have time to dream”, argue Miriam Tlali and Pamela Ryan [59]. While we should look at the conditions that have prevented Black Women from dreaming, black women of today can reinvent these past future images for their foremothers. Some of those visions have been expressed in traditional cultures, some in past and present grass-root women’s movements in the Third World; movements that are simultaneously challenging poverty, racism and colonisation as well as gender subordination. While indigenous history has been often erased and the technocratic visions of tomorrow reign supreme it is never too late to rediscover one’s own original direction.

Science Fiction and the Future of the Other

Generally mainstream science fiction has not done so well writing the other, even though ultimately everything it is about is the other. This precisely because science fiction has largely become framed by one culture. And this is why it is important (while acknowledging the danger of being lumped into ‘the Rest’) to encourage the search, valorization, and publication of science fiction (in its broadest sense) around the world.

It is also important to see the future, science fiction, within the historical and cultural terms of other civilizations, not merely rescuing them within the dominant themes of the west, but also developing the process of an authentic conversation and dialogue about self and other; space and future; alien and human.

To do this we must rescue dominant science fiction from its own paradigmatic blinders, showing how it continues the project of one-culture hegemony. What must be encouraged is a dialogue of visions of the future and past across civilization, such that authenticity from each civilization can lead to a new universal of what it means to be human and not human.

This of course holds true not only for science fiction but also for futures studies (utopian studies, etc) as well as scholarship in general. Nothing could be more important as we create a world for future generations for all of us. The desire to dream is the universal endeavor of us, humans, appearing all over the globe, even at the most unexpected places (for example, woman writing science/utopian fiction in Bangladesh at the very beginning of the Twentieth century). To culturally appropriate this desire and submerge into not only one genre, but also one history and a few themes is to deny the realities of our terrestrial past, present and future lives. We can dream otherwise.


 

Notes:

1.        Butler O. quoted in Wolmark J. Aliens and Others: Science Fiction, Feminism and Postmodernism. Iowa City: University of Iowa Press; 1994:28.

2.        Ibid.

3.        Suvin D. Positions and Presuppositions in Science Fiction. London: Macmillan Press, 1988. See especially chapter 8: “Three World Paradigms for SF: Asimov, Yefremov, Lem”. For a website devoted to definitions of science fiction, see: http://www.panix.com/~gokce/sf_defn.html. The site states: Science fiction is really sociological studies of the future, things that the writer believes are going to happen by putting two and two together. Accessed, October 12, 2000.

4.        Ibid.

5.        Davies P J. Science fiction and conflict. In: Davies P, editor. Science Fiction, Social Conflict, and War. Manchester: Manchester University Press; 1990:5.

6.        Discussion with Frederik Pohl over lunch, April 15, Seattle, Washington, Foundation for the Future symposium on Humanity in the Year 3000. See: www.futurefoundation.org. Also see, Pohl F. The Politics of Prophecy. In: Hassler D, Wilcox C, editors. Political Science Fiction. Columbia, South Carolina: University of South Carolina; 1997.

7.        El-Affendi A. Who Needs an Islamic State? London: Grey Seal, 1991.

8.        See Inayatullah S. Indian Philosophy, Political. In: Craig E, editor. Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy. London: Routledge Press; 1998.

9.        Case F I. Negritude and Utopianism. In: Jones ED, African Literature Today. New York: African Publishing Company; 1975:70.

10.     See Inayatullah S. Toward a Post-Development Vision of the Future: The Shape and Time of the Future. In: Slaughter R, editor. The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies: Directions and Outlooks. Vol. 3. Melbourne: DDM Publishers; 1996:113-126.

11.     See Galtung J, Inayatullah S, editors. Macrohistory and Macrohistorians. Westport, Connecticut: Praeger, 1997. Also see, Sardar Z, Nandy A, Wyn Davies M. Barbaric Others: A Manifesto of Western Racism. London: Pluto Press, 1993, and Sardar Z, editor. Rescuing All Our Future: The Futures of Futures Studies. Twickenham, England: Adamantine Press, 1999.

12.     Dery M. Black to the Future: Interviews with Samuel R. Delany, Greg Tate, and Tricia Rose. The South Atlantic Quarterly 1993; 92(3-4):736.

13.     See, Back to Godhead. The magazine of the Hare Krishna Movement. PO Box 255, Sandy Ridge, NC, 27046, USA.

14.     For example, the first known description of the ‘robot’ comes from fourth century China. From: Wu Dingbo, Chinese Science Fiction. In: Dingbo W, Murphy PD, editors. Handbook of Chinese Popular Culture. Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood Press; 1994:258.

15.     Ibid.

16.     Uemichi I S. Japanese Science-Fiction in the International Perspective. In: Bauer R, et al., editors. Proceedings of the XIIth Congress of the International Comparative Literature Association: Space and Boundaries in literature. Munich: International Comparative Literature Association; 1988.

17.     Ibid.

18.     Ibid.

19.     Stories of the Dreaming: http://www.dreamtime.net.au/seven/text.htm

20.     Gunn Allen P. Spider Woman’s Granddaughters: Traditional Tales and Contemporary Writing by Native American Women. New York: Fawcett Columbine, 1989:65.

21.     Umeh M. Signifyin(g) The Griottes; Flora Nwapa’s Legacy of (Re)Vision and Voice. Research in African Literatures 1995; 26(2): 114.

22.     Dingbo W:259.

23.     Jamano K. Japanese SF, Its Originality and Orientation (1969). Science-Fiction Studies 1994; 21(1): 70.

24.     Moskowitz S, Capek K. The man who invented robots. In: Moskowitz S. Explorers of the Infinite Westport, Connecticut: Hyperion Press Inc.; 1963:208, 211.

25.     Dingbo W:258.

26.     Dingbo W:259.

27.     Tharu S, Lalita K. Women Writing in India. New York, The City University of New York: The Feminist Press, 1991:340.

28.     Hossain R. Sultana’s Dream. In: Tharu S, Lalita K:344.

29.     Tharu S, Lalita K:167

30.     Kibera V. Adopted Motherlands: The Novels of Marjorie Macgoye and Bessie Head. In: Nasta S, editor. Motherlands: Black Women’s Writing from Africa, the Caribbean and South Asia. New Brunswick, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press; 1992:315.

31.     Head B. When Rain Clouds Gather. London: Heinemann, New Windmill Series, 1968:22.

32.     Kibera V:326.

33.     Knee A. Close encounters of the generic kind: a case study in Thai sci-fi. At: http://www.latrobe.edu.au/screeningthepast/current/cc1100.html.

34.     Ibid.

35.     Ibid.

36.     Ibid.

37.     Rosenberg K. Soviet Science Fiction: To The Present Via the Future. Massachusetts: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Alumni Association, 1987.

38.     Haraway D. Cyborg Manifesto:175. Quoted in Miller J. Post-Apocalyptic Hoping: Octavia Butler’s Dystopia/Utopian Vision. Science-Fiction Studies 1998: 25(2):338.

39.     Rosi Braidotti, “ Cyberteratologies: Female Monsters Negotiate the Other’s Participation in Humanity’s Far Future,” in Marlene S. Barr, ed. Envisioning the Future: Science Fiction and the Next Millennium. Middletown, Ct, Wesleyan University Press, 2003, 146-172.

40.     Ibid, 163.

41.     Pfitzer GM. The Only Good Alien Is a Dead Alien: Science Fiction and the Metaphysics of Indian-Hating on the High Frontier., Journal of American Culture 1995;18(1):51. The animated film Toy Story is one example of how the similarity and tension between Woodie the cowboy and Buzz Lightyear is worked out.

42.     Ibid.

43.     Ibid.

44.     Pfitzer GM:65

45.     Miller J. Post Apocalyptic Hoping: Octavia Butler’s Dystopian/Utopian Vision. Science-Fiction Studies 1998; 25(2):337.

46.     Wolmark J. Aliens and Others. Iowa City: University of Iowa Press, 1994:28.

47.     Green ME. There Goes the Neighborhood: Octavia Butler’s Demand for Diversity in Utopias. In: Domawerth JM, Komerten CA, editors. Utopian and Science Fiction by Women: Worlds of Difference. Syracuse, New York: Syracuse University Press; 1994:169. The best of south Asian fiction as well portrays these dilemmas. See the works of Saadat Hasan Manto.

48.     Miller J:346.

49.     Peppers K. Dialogic Origins and Alien Identities in Butler’s Xenogenesis. Science-Fiction Studies 1995; 22(1):60.

50.     Wolmark J:35.

51.     Butler O. Adulthood Rites. Quoted in Green ME:189.

52.     Pearson J. Where no man has gone before: sexual politics and women’s science fiction. In: Davies PJ, editor. Science Fiction, Social Conflict, and War. Manchester: Manchester University Press; 1990:9.

53.     For the works of Doris Lessing, see, http://lessing.redmood.com/

54.     Ibid. Exact quote citation missing.

55.     Marge Piercy, “Love and Sex in the Year 3000,” in Marlene S. Barr, ed. Envisioning the Future: Science Fiction and the Next Millennium. Middletown, Ct, Wesleyan University Press, 2003, 137

56.     Ibid.

57.     Kreksch I. Reality Transfigured: The Latin American Situation as Reflected in Its Science Fiction. In: Hassler DM, Wilcox C. Political Science Fiction. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1997:178.

58.     Willard W. Pipe Carriers of The Red Atlantis: Prophecy/Fantasy. Wicazo Sa Review: A Journal of Native American Studies 1994; X(1):25.

59.     Ryan P. Black Women Do Not Have Time to Dream: The Politics of Time and Space. Tulsa Studies in Women’s Literature 1992; 11(Spring):95-102.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

An earlier version of this paper appeared in Futures (Vol 35, No. 5, 493-507).

Ivana Milojevic is a postdoctoral research fellow at the Graduate School of Education, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072. ivanam@mailbox.uq.edu.au.  Her forthcoming book for Routledge is titled Postwestern and Feminist Futures of Education.

Sohail Inayatullah is Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan and University of the Sunshine Coast. He is co-editor of the Journal of Futures Studies and Associate Editor of New Renaissance. His books published in 2002 include: Understanding Sarkar; Transforming Communication; Questioning the Future; and, Youth Futures. s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au and info@metafuture.org, www.metafuture.org

A Gaia of Civilizations or the Artificial Society: Power, Structure and the Future (2003)

Sohail Inayatullah

Attempts to forecast global futures fall into three or so camps. Most extrapolate from the present focusing on variables such as population, resource capacity and distribution of wealth.  Technology, economics and power are seen as the key drivers. From these a range of scenarios are posited (Rich/Poor divide; The Long Boom; Global Collapse).  Others focus less on the trends and more on aspirations – what images people desire the future to be like. Community-oriented, deep democracy, appropriate technology and individual self-actualization tend to be the descriptors of this more idealistic future. The driver is generally human agency.  A third set of forecasts focus neither on trends or aspirations but at other forces, either the transcendental (Hegel’s geist moving through history or the return of the avatar/jesus, for example or evolution – survival of the fittest). The future that results does so because of factors that are generally external to human beings, grander variables.

What is often lost in these important attempts to understand the future are the structural constraints and structural possibilites.  In this sense, few scenarios go beyond the dictates of the present (trend extrapolation), the dictates of vision (aspiration scenarios) and the dictates of telelogy (the transcendental/evolutionary).

Structural approaches explore the parameters of the possible future. What is probable, not because of current trends (although these are often defined by structural forces) or agency or the transcendental but because of real historical limits.

If we begin to explore the long term, from a macrohistorical (Galtung and Inayatullah, 1997) view, there are range of possibilities that define the shape of the long term.  In this essay, we focus on four factors.  The first is P.R. Sarkar theory of varna (or deep episteme).  From this, the future is contoured by Sarkar’s notion of four types of power (worker, warrior, intellectual and merchant or chaotic/service; cooercive/protective; religious/intellectual; and, remunerative). The second is based on culture and is derived from Sorokin’s ideas of  three types of systems (sensate focused on materialism, ideational focused on religion and integrated, balancing earth and heaven). The third is based on class and is derived from Immanuel Wallerstein’s world systems theory. The fourth is based on gender and is derived from Riane Eisler’s theory of Patriarchy – male and female power.

Simply stated – and glossing quite a bit of history – there have been four structures.

1.                  World Empire – victory of warrior historical power – coercive/protective – sensate – patriarchy – ksattriya

2.                  World Church – victory of intellectual power – normative – ideational – patriarchy – vipra

3.                  Mini-systems – small, self-reliant cultural systems – ideational –androgny – shudra

4.                  World economy – globalizing economics along national divisions – sensate – vaeshyan

The question is, which structure is likely to dominate in the next 25 to 50 years? Option 1 is unlikely given countervailing powers – given that there is more than one hegemon in the world system and given that there is a lack of political legitimacy for recolonization, for simply conquering other nations. The human rights discourse while allowing intervention in failing nations still severely delimits nation to nation conquest.

Option 2, a world church, is also unlikely given that there are many civilizations (from muslim to christian to shinto to modern secular) vying for minds and hearts. While the millennium has evoked passions associated with the end of man, and the return of Jesus, Amida Buddha or the Madhi, the religious pluralism that is our planet is unlike to be swayed toward any one religion.

Option 3 is possible because of potential decentralizing impact of telecommunication systems and the aspiration by many for self-reliant ecological communities electronically linked. However, small systems tend to be taken over by warrior power, intellectual/religious power or larger economic globalizing propensities.  In the context of a globalized world economy, self-reliance is difficult to maintain. Moreover, centralizing forces and desire for power at the local level limits the democratic/small is beautiful impulse.

Option 4, the world economy, has been the stable for the last few hundred years but it now appears that a bifurcation to an alternative system or to collapse (and reconquest by the warriors) is possible.  Crises in environment, governance, legitimacy all reduce the strength of the world system.

Revolutions from above (global institutions from UN, WTO, IMF) and regional institutions (APEC) and revolutions from below (social movements and nongovernmental organizations), revolutions from technology (cyber democracy, cyber communities and cyber lobbying) and revolutions from capital (globalization) make the nation far more porous as well as the chaotic interstate system that underlies it.

A countervailing force are revolutions from the past – the imagined past of purity and sovereignty (economic sovereignty, racial purity, and idealized good societies), which (1) seeks to strengthen the nation state (to either fight mobility of individuals –immigration – or mobility of capital – globalization – or mobility of ideas – cultural imperialism and (2) seeks to create new nation states (ethno-nationalism).

However, none of these problems can be solved in isolation thus leading to the strengthening of global institutions, even for localist parties, who now realize that for their local agendas to succeed they must become global political parties, globalizing themselves, and in turn moving away from their ideology of localism and self-reliance.

Thus what we are seeing even in the local is a necessity to move to the global. There is no other way. The issue, of course, is which globalism? Thus, globalism is not merely the freeing of capital, but the freeing of ideas (multiculturalism – challenging the western canon, modernity, secularism, linear time) and eventually the globalization of labor.

While the latter is currently about fair wages for workers throughout the world (in terms of purchasing power), it also means that for elite workers movement throughout the world is now possible – university positions in varied nations, or moving from ingo to ingo, multinational to multinational, nation-hopping and passport collecting. This could eventually lead to a real globalization of labor and the creation of the Marxian dream – a world where workers unite – and challenge capitalist power.

Globalized labor is even more likely given the rapid aging of Western societies, where to survive economically, they will need a massive inflow of immigrants to work to support the retirement bulge. Historically the median age has been 20, it is quickly moving to 40 plus in OECD nations. Who will purchase the stocks sold by babyboomers as they begin to retire and pay for their leisure lifestyles? (Peterson, 1999). Only elites in developing nations are likely to do so.

Choices

For the West there are three choices: (1) Import labor, open the doors of immigration and become truly multicultural and younger. Those nations who do that will thrive financially (the US and England, for example), those who cannot because of localist politics will find themselves slowly descending down the ladder (Germany and Japan, for example).

The second choice is dramatically increase productivity through new technologies, that is, fewer people producing more goods (or a mix of immigration and email outsourcing). While the first stage is the convergence of computing and telecommunications technology (the Net), nano-technology is the end dream of this.

The third choice is the reengineering of the population – creating humans in hospitals. This is the end game of the genetics revolution. The first phase is: genetic prevention. Phase two is genetic enhancement (finding ways to increase intelligence, typing second, language capacity) and phase three is genetic recreation, the creation of new species, super and sub races (Inayatullah and Fitzgerald, 1996; Foundation for the Future, 2000).

This is the creation of the Artificial society. The convergence of computers, telecommunications and genetics, seeing genes as information and finding ways to manipulate this information. The main points of this future are:

·                    Genetic Prevention, Enhancement and Recreation – New Species , Germ Line Engineering and the End of “Natural” Procreation

·                    Soft and Strong Nano-Technology – End of Scarcity and Work

·                    Space Exploration – Promise of Contact or at Least, Species Continuation

·                    Artificial Intelligence – The Rights of Robots

·                    Life Extension and Ageing – Gerontocracy and the End of Youth Culture

·                    Internet – the Global Brain

The underlying ethos is that technology can solve every problem and lead to genuine human progress.

In the long run, this creates a new globalization, where the very nature of nature (once stable, now dramatically alterable) is transformed.

Coupled with changes in nature are processes that are changing the nature of truth. Postmodernism and multiculturalism all contest stable notions of truth, instead seeing reality as for more porous, based on individual, cultural and epistemic perception, essentially political. Reality as well is less fixed, whether from quantum notions of what is essential, or spiritual notions of life as microvita, as perception and empirical, or from virtual reality, where the world around is no longer the foundation for knowing and living what is.

Taken with the problematic nature of sovereignty of self and nation, the stability of the last few hundred years of the world economy/interstate system are suspect.

What this means is that globalism as the agenda of neo-liberalism has far gone beyond the original program (or perhaps fulfilling the deep code of the program). Technologies and the reductionist scientific process they are embedded in are creating a new world where nothing will have a resemblance to what we historically knew, making humans superfluous.

Other Scenarios

But returning to our structural perspective, alternative scenarios are possible. This is the Collapse, the convergence of new technologies gone wrong, the technological fix creating even more problems – new viruses, new species, for example. Nuclear meltdown, virtual stock markets delinked from real economies and postmodern cultural depression, even madness, are further problems.

Next is the globalized multicultural society – the vision of the social movements. Globalization, in this future, would extend to the liberation of not just capital but as mentioned above: (1) labor (the right to travel and work eventually eliminating visas and passports). (2) Culture (news, information, meaning, ideas, worldview) moving from south to north, and not just as commodities for liberalism to allay its colonial guilt. The long term implication is the creation of a gaia of civilizations, each in authentic interaction and interpenetration of the other, each needing the other for survival and “thrival” (3) A global security system, that is, for issues such as war, terrorism, global climate change, viruses, and new problems being created by the globalization of capital and technology.

This world – a communicative/inclusive vision of the future – would have the following characteristics:

·                    Challenge is not technology but creating a shared global ethics

·                    Dialogue of civilizations and between civilizations in the context of multiple ways of knowing

·                    Prama – balanced but dynamic economy. Technological innovation leads to shared cooperative “capitalism”

·                    Maxi-mini global wage system – incentive linked to distributive justice

·                    A soft global governance system with 1000 local bio-regions

·                    Layered identity,  moving  from ego/religion/nation to rights of all

·                    Microvita (holistic) science – life as intelligent

The underlying perspective would be that a global ethics with a deep commitment to communication could solve every problem this would then be a systems bifurcation where the world polity would become decentralized – either networked or loose confederations or multiple hegemons – and the world economy as well would be decentralized. Culture would move from uniculturalism to multiculturalism to human culture (our genetic similarities are among the surprising benefits of the mapping of the human genome, ie there is no genetic cause for racism and racial differences).  It would be a future with a non-strategic governance partnership society.

However, while the aspirations for a soft world governance system are laudable – during times of intense transformation, plastic time, where there is a struggle between worldviews and processes – there is a new center, a reordering of power.  Power does not so easily go away.  Exploitation can be reduced but its elimination is unlikely.

The structural reality is that over time what will emerge will be a world government system with strong localism. That is, the communicative-inclusive vision of the future does not adequately address issues of power; it is focused far more on aspirations. This world polity will likely have a world constitution with basic rights such as language, basic needs, culture and religion enshrined. It would be a stronger version of the communicative-inclusive society, that is, with some teeth with it, in the form of a functioning world court, for example – perhaps a balance to the four types of power referred to above. This system would be a planetary system and not an empire since there would be no single state hegemon nor would there be conquest per se.

Still it is the creation of an artificial society with deep cleavages between those with access to wealth, information and genetic technology that remains quite likely. The elite would be from the North, older, and will be able to extend their life span by thirty to fifty years. Outside the walls of technocracy, will be the others.

And it is the fear of others that will define the polity of the artificial society. Two political systems are likely – a world empire (the rise of new Napoleon using genomic and net warfare as the main methods of conquest) or a world church/technocracy (a religion of perfection with gene doctors becoming the holders of life and liberty). In the communicative-inclusive future, there will either be a soft governance system or stronger world government system. From a structural view, the latter is far more likely.

But there remain many unanswered questions.

How will the new technologies and resultant cultures evolve? Who will control them, how will they be used? Will social movements be able to successfully resist elite science (concentrated intellectual and military and technocratic/economic power) using culture and technology to create inclusive futures? Will a more public and responsible postnormal science develop (that includes the subjective and the ethical)? Will multiculturalism transform the West or will the artificial society beat back the invading others?


 

References

Foundation for the Future (2000). The Evolution of Human Intelligence. Bellevue, Washington, Foundation for the Future, 2000.

Galtung, J and Inayatullah, S (1997) Macrohistory and Macrohistorians. Wesport, Ct, Praeger.

Inayatullah S and Fitzgerald J (1996) Gene Discourses: Law, Politics, Culture, Future, Journal of Technological Forecasting and Social Change (Vo. 52, No. 2-3, June-July), pp. 161-183.

Peterson, P (1999). Grey Dawn. New York, Random House.

www.ru.org – on the communicative inclusive society

www.futurefoundation.org – on the debate between the artificial and other scenarios

www.proutworld.org – on the more spiritual dimensions of social transformation

Corporate, Technological, Epistemic and Democratic Challenges: Mapping the Political Economy of University Futures (2001)

Sohail Inayatullah

Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan and Sunshine Coast University, Australia. www.metafuture.org

 

Trends of changing student expectations (access to global systems of knowledge, including transparency and international accreditation), the internet (virtual education, moving from campus center to person centered, and far more customized, individually tailored), global corporatization (reduced state funding for universities and the development of a market culture on campuses) and transformed content (multicultural education) will dramatically influence all the world’s universities. Indeed the potential for dramatic transformation is so great that in the next fifteen to twenty years, it is far from certain that universities as currently constituted – campus based, nation-funded, and local student-oriented – will exist. Certainly, the current model for the university will cease to be the hegemonic one.

Of course, rich universities like Harvard will be able to continue without too much challenge, but the state-supported University will be challenged. Asian nations where education is defined by the dictates of the Ministry of Education too will face the efficiency oriented, privatization forces of globalization. Their command and control structure will be challenged by globalization – market pressures, technological innovations and the brain gain (that is, from graduates returning home from the USA and England).

Corporatization

Corporatization will create far more competition than traditional universities have been prepared for. Corporatization is the entrance of huge multinational players into the educational market. Total spending in education in America was 800$ billion US in 2001, estimates The Economist. By 2003, the private capital invested in the US will total 10 billion dollars, just for the virtual higher education market and 11 billion dollars in the private sector serving the corporate market. Indeed, John Chambers, CEO of Cisco systems, calls “online education the killer application of the internet.” Jeanne Meister, president of Corporate University Xchange(CUX), expects that by 2010 there will be more corporate universities in the United States than traditional ones. They are and will continue to challenge the academy’s monopolization of accreditation.. Globalization thus provides the structure and the Net the vehicle. Pearson, for example, a large British media group that owns 50% of the Economist, is betting its future on it, hoping that it can provide the online material for the annual two million people that will be seeking a degree online. Motorola, Accenture, Cisco and McDonolds as well as News Corporation all seek to become respectable universities. Cisco Networking Academies have trained 135000 students in 94 countries. Motorola has a new division called Motorola Learning and Certification which resells educational programs. Accencture has purchased a former college campus and spends 6.5% of its revenues on educating employees.

Of course, much of this is not new. Corporation education has always been big. What is new is that corporate universities seek to enter markets traditionally monopolized by academics. And, given pressures on corporation to be more inclusive of minorities, to be more multicultural and more triple bottom line oriented (prosperity, planet plus people), it may be that corporate universities embrace diversity at a quicker pace than traditional universities.

Clearly when billion dollar corporations want to enter the market – a rapidly growing market, especially with the aging of the population and with national barriers to education slowly breaking down – the challenge to the traditional university becomes dramatic, indeed, mission, if not life threatening. With an expanding market of hundreds of millions of learners, money will follow future money. Money will transform education, at the very least, dominate the discourse who and what values are most important – is the student, academic, administrator, community or are corporate interests first, remains the answered question.

For community education and for communities – traditionally tied to a local regional university – seeking economic vitality, their future will become far more daunting. As universities globalize, corporatize and virtualize – moving services to low cost areas – place will more and more disappear.

This is a far cry from the classical European, Islamic on Indic university, concerned mostly with moral education. Moreover, as in Bologna in the 10th century, the university was student-run. If the professor was late, he was fined by students, some teachers were even forced to leave the city. Paradoxically, corporatization with its customer-first ideology may return us to a student-run university. The Academy beware!

University Dimensions

The point is that at one time the university was student-run, we know that it is no longer so, if anything it is administration-run. Who will run it in the future? To understand this we need to explore the different dimensions of the University. The University is partly about social control, and it is also about baby-sitting. What to do with teenagers? How to keep them out of trouble? The other dimension is national development. We have schools to convince everyone that we’re a good people, that we have the best system. Each nation engages in social control, it uses education to give legitimacy to the nation-state, to make good patriots. We also have university for job training, the entire practical education moment. – the small community colleges, where the goal is to go to a small college to get practical education so that one can get a real job after graduation.

Thus the classical view of knowledge for the cultivation of the mind has been supplanted by the industrial model. And, as you might expect the big growth in jobs in the university are in the area of the bureaucracy. Whereas tenure is being eliminated in favor of part-time employment throughout the world, the university administration continues to expand.

Of course, the nature of administration is as well changing: it is being forced to become far more student-friendly, as with government subsidies of education being reduced, it is students who pay academic and administration wages. Fees provide the backbone of the private university. Customer satisfaction and student retention become far more important as compared to the traditional state subsidized university. As Flora Chang of Tamkang University said: “Student satisfaction through customer surveys, student retention data, and alumni loyalty are crucial factors” for our future success.

One key question will be: what can be automated? Who can be replaced by the internet and web education? Perhaps both – faculty and the administration – will be in trouble. This is the debate: too many administrators or too many professors. A third perspective is – a market perspective – not enough students and thus each university believes it must globalize and seduce students from all over the world attend their physical campus as well as take courses from their virtual campuses. However, generally, most universities still think of students in narrow ways. As young people or as students from one’s own nation. But with the ageing population and with the internet (with bandwith likely to keep on increasing), one’s paying students can be from anywhere.

The other classical view of university was academic-led – a shared culture focused on scholarship and science – but that too is been challenged. And of course the .com model even challenges what the university should look like. Should it be physical-based or virtual? Should it be based on a model of hierarchy or a networked model?

But for academics, the biggest challenge is the university as a corporation. And we know in the U.S. corporate funding for the University has increased from 850 million in 1985 to 4.25 billion US$ less than a decade later. In the last twenty years it has increased by eight times. It is likely that East Asian nations will follow this pattern. So far it is the state that has exclusively engaged in education. However, globalization is opening up this space in East Asia with foreign and local education suppliers seeking to reduce the controls of the Ministry of Education.

Thus the big money is coming from corporations and funding from the government is gradually being reduced years as per the dictates of the globalization model. While most presidents of the university would prefer a different model, they have no choice. More and more education is becoming an economic good. Humanity departments are being downsized throughout the world since the contribution to jobs is not direct. Unfortunately, they forget the indirect contribution, that of creating smart, multi-lingual, multi-cultural individuals – what some call social capital. However, in East Asia language remains central, necessary to understand other cultures, train civil servants and open up new markets.

However, there are some quite insidious affects of corporatization. First, information is no longer open, as corporations use it for profit making. A survey of 210 life-science companies in 1994 found that 58% of those sponsoring academic research required delays of more than six months before publication. The content of science itself changes as the funding increased. In a 1996 study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, 98% of papers based on industry-sponsored research reflected favorably on the drugs being examined as compared with 79% based on research not funded by the industry. Now what accounts for that 19% variation? And how will the public then see the university? As with the medical system, once patients believe that doctors are beholden to certain drug companies or web sites they are less likely to trust them. This holds true for university research as well.

But there is another side to globalization. In 1989 in the U.S. there were 364 new start up companies on the basis of a license to an academic invention. University technology transfer activities generated 34 billion dollars in U.S.$ supporting 280,000 jobs.

So the university is becoming more global and also producing incredible wealth, so there are two sides to globalization.

Virtualization: the .com revolution

The .com revolution as well has mixed reviews. For example, at one Australian university, over night, the prefix for academic emails was changed from edu.au to .com. The academics asked why did this occur? While some were upset that this happened without consultation, others were upset that the moral basis of the university was being transformed, they were deeply troubled by corporatization. The administration responded that we can no longer compete globally as an @.edu.au institution and instead had to become a .com. Eventually the university went back to edu.au as the pressure from academics was too great. With the .com world having lost its shine, perhaps it was a wise move.

But the university administration could see the writing on the wall. The traditional model of the classical liberal arts national subsidized university was ending – a new model was emerging. The mistake they made was not engaging in dialogue with others, not living the .com network model but instead using the power-based secrecy model of the industrial era.

The other problem that administrations have not yet begun to see is that much of middle-management can and is likely to be eliminated. The emerging knowledge economy – via the net and future artificial intelligence systems – will lead to dis-intermediation. With a good information system, you don’t need all the secretaries, the clerks, as well as those higher up the ladder. Of course, the politics of job firing, retraining, is a different matter and central to how the future university and overall world economy is to be organized in the future.

In Taiwan, surveys at Tamkang University, Taiwan, found that Professors and Administrators were enthusiastic about virtualization. Professors were enthusiastic as this would free their time spent at the university, increase interaction with colleagues and students, and administrators saw the cost savings. Deans saw it eroding their power base – control of the faculty – and students saw it taking away from what they valued most – face to face (not face to blur, ie huge classes) education. They desired a degree of broadband but not virtual classes.

Summarizing these two sections, it appears that the nature of what constitutes education is changing from being academy focused to being customer student focused; from being campus focused to being virtual; from being state subsidized to being corporate funding. Overtime – and certainly these processes are uneven with fits and starts, the university may becomes a process, it is no longer simply a place, with fixed 9-5 work patterns, with fixed schedules for classes. It can become a network.

Multicultural Realities

But there is a deeper possibility of change – this the epistemic bases of knowledge, of content, of what is taught, how it is taught and who teaches – essentially this is the multicultural turn.

In its tokenistic form, multiculturalism became a government fad of the last decade in postindustrial societies, its most controversial feature being its excesses of ‘political correctness’. In its deeper nature it is

about inclusiveness. At heart, argues Ashis Nandy, multiculturalism is about dissent, about contesting the categories of knowledge that modernity has given us. And, even with multiculturalism often criticized and coopted, used strategically to ensure representation, still the future is likely to be more and more about an ethics of inclusion instead of a politics of exclusion. Of course, the struggle will be long and hard, and more often than not, instead of new curriculum, there will be just more special departments of the Other.

Deep multiculturalism challenges what is taught, how it is taught, the knowledge categories used to teach, and the way departments enclose the other. It provides a worldview in which to create new models of learning and new universities which better capture the many ways students know the world. As futures researcher Paul Wildman reminds us, this can extend to concepts such as multiversities and even ‘subversities’ which encourage participation from scholars and students who dwell at the periphery of knowledge. In this form, multiculturalism goes beyond merely inclusion of ‘other’ ethnicities, to a questioning of the whole paradigm of western scientific rationalism on which centuries of university traditions are founded. In this perspective, multiple ways of knowing including spiritual or consciousness models of self, in which as James Grant for the Mahrishi University of Mangement and Marcus Bussey of The Ananda Marga Gurukul University assert, the main driver in transforming universities of the next century is an explosion of inner enlightenment, a new age of higher consciousness about to begin. Thus, there are three levels to this. The first is inclusion of others, in terms of who gains admission into universities, who teaches, ensuring that those on the periphery gain entrance. A second level is less concerned with quantifiable representation and more with inclusion of others’ ways of knowing – expanding the canon of what constitutes knowledge as well how knowledge is realized. A third level is what Indian philosopher P.R. Sarkar calls, the liberation of the intellect, education that transcends the limitation of geographical sentiments, religious sentiments, race-based sentiments and even humanism, moving toward a planetary spiritual consciousness and touching upon the spiritual.

In terms of curriculum and disciplinary boundaries, multiculturalism challenges the notion that there is only one science. Western science instead of being seen as a quest for truth is considered to be one way of knowing among many. There are can alternative sciences – feminist science, Tantric science, Islamic science. They are still engaged in empirical and verifiable research but the questions asked, the ethical framework are different. Generally, the type of research is more concerned with indigenous problems, with local concerns. It is less violent to nature, toward “subjects” and more concerned with integrated self and other, mind and body, intellect and intuition.

What’s happening throughout universities is that scholars are contesting the content of scholarship – how, for example, history is taught, asking are all civilizations included, or are only Western thinkers, Western notions of discovery and culture honored.

Many years ago, I give a lecture at an Australian university and questioned how they were teaching their main course on World History. I noted that the grand thinkers from Islamic, Sinic and Indian civilizations were not included. Why? And when other civilizations were briefly mentioned they were written as threats to the West or as barbarians. Women and nature as well were absent. I argued that this creates a view of history that is not only inaccurate but violent since other cultures see themselves through these hegemonic eyes. Instead of creating an inclusive history of humanity’s struggle, a history of one particular civilization becomes valorized.

While it is unlikely that the professor who teaches this course will change, students have changed. They want multiple global perspectives. They understand that they need to learn about other cultures from those cultures’ perspectives. Globalization in the form of changing immigration patterns is moving OECD nations by necessity toward better representation, irrespective of attacks of multicultural as “political correctness.”

The multicultural challenge to the traditional university can be defined as below:

  • Challenge to western canon
  • Challenge to intellect as the only way of knowing
  • Challenge to divorce of academic from body and spirit – challenge to egghead vision of self/other
  • Challenge to modernist classification of knowledge
  • Challenge to traditional science (feminist, islamic, postnormal, indian)
  • Challenges pedagogy, curriculum as well as evaluation – ie process or culture, content and evaluation or what is counted.

We are already seeing the rise of multiculturalism in OECD nations. For example, at one conference in Boston, when participants were asked to list the five American authors they believed most necessary for a quality education, they placed Toni Morrison second and Maya Angelou third. Others on the top ten, included Maclom X and James Baldwin. The first was Mark Twain.

The multicultural perspective challenges as well the foundation of knowledge. Multicultural education is about creating structures and processes that allow for the expression of the many civilizations, communities and individuals that we are.

Multicultural education contests the value neutrality of current institutions such as the library. For example, merely including texts from other civilizations does not constitute a multi-cultural library. Ensuring that the contents of texts are not ethnocentric is an important step but this does not begin to problematize the definitional categories used in conventional libraries. For example, in the multicultural perspective, we need to ask what a library would look like if it used the knowledge paradigms of other civilizations? How would knowledge be rearranged? What would the library floors look like? In Hawaiian culture, for example, there might be floors for the Gods, for the aina and genealogy. In Tantra, empirical science would exist alongside intuitional science. Floor and shelve space would privilege the superconscious and unconscious layers of reality instead of only focusing on empirical levels of the real. In Islam, since knowledge is considered tawhidic (based on the unity of God), philosophy, science and religion would no longer occupy the discrete spaces they currently do. Of course, the spatiality of “floors” must also be deconstructed. Information systems from other civilizations might not privilege book-knowledge, focusing instead on story-telling and dreamtime as well as wisdom received from elders/ancestors (as in Australian Aboriginal) and perhaps even “angels” (either metaphorically or ontologically).

A multi-cultural library might look like the world wide web but include other alternative ways of knowing and being. Most certainly knowledge from different civilizations in this alternative vision of the “library” would not be relegated to a minor site or constituted as an exotic field of inquiry such as Asian, Ethnic or Feminist studies, as are the practices of current libraries. The homogeneity of the library as an organizing information system must be reconstructed if we are to begin to develop the conceptual framework of multi-cultural education.

Thus, not only is the structure of the University changing, that is, virtualization, but the content as well is being transformed. Now what does this mean, in terms of policy prescriptions? If you want your university to have a bright future, you have to understand the changing nature of the student – changing demographics (older, more females) and changing expectations (more multicultural). Generally, while getting a job will always be important, the equation has changed to planet, prosperity and people, that is, a strong concern for the environment, for wealth creation and for engaging with others and other cultures.

For academics, the multicultural is as well about the changing role of the Professor. For example, the university becomes not just a site of gaining knowledge but a place for experiencing other dimensions of reality, at the very least, for balancing body, mind and spirit.

Democratizing the Feudal Mind

The role of academics is changing as well. This is the generally the hardest notion for senior professors to swallow – the democratization of the university. We want democracy for government, but we don’t want democracy for universities .

The university remains feudal. For example, while the economy in East Asian nations has transformed, that is, feudalism was destroyed, the feudal mind has not changed. This is the grand question for East Asian nations. How to create a culture of innovation, how to go to the next level of economic development, instead of copying, creating. To create an innovative learning organization, you can’t have a culture of fear. This means real democracy in details like what type of seating is in the room. As well as: can students challenge professors? Can junior professors challenge senior academics without fear of reprisal. Innovation comes from questioning.

In British systems, the university structure is as well profoundly feudal. A strong distinction is made between the professor and the lecturer. Indeed, the professor is high on top the pyramid with others way below (and the president of the university residing on the mountain top).

Thus can we democratize the university? Of course, it is difficult to do this as few of us like being challenged. We all have our view of reality, our favorite models, and we believe we are correct. But creating a learning organization means challenging basic structures and finding new ways to create knowledge and wealth. It doesn’t mean always going to the President for solutions. Transforming the feudal university is very difficult.

However, I am not discounting the importance of respect for leadership, for discipline and hardwork – challenging authority doesn’t mean being rude, it means contesting the foundations for how we go about creating a good society.

Along with a learning organization, however, is the notion of a healing organization. Merely, focused on learning forgets that much of our life is spent focused on relationship – with our inner self, with colleagues, with nature and cosmos and with the university itself. As universities change their nature – reducing tenured positions, increasing teaching loads – health becomes an issue. Sick institutions can emerge quite quickly, unless there is a focus on creating ways to learn and heal, to develop sustainable and transformative relationships.

However, democratization is not facile given the trends mentioned above. For the Asian academic, for example, the choices shrink daily. Her or she can choose between the following alternatives – the 4 big M’s. The first M is the Ministry of Education. Choosing this career means grant research focused only on the Ministry’s needs, and it means being dependent on government. When states go wrong, or punish dissent as in Malaysia or Indonesia, or Pakistan and India, losing one’s job and prison are real possibilities. Text are written with the other nation as the enemy, as in India and Pakistan. The professor must teach these texts or lose his or her position. One pakistani academic, for example, was jailed for giving a lecture on alternative futures that contested the notion of Pakistan as an eternal state.

The second choice is the Mullah, or the cleric. This is money from not the corporation or State but the competing worldview to the modern, the Islamic. In real terms this has meant soft and strong version of Wahibism – the creation of International Islamic Universities with Saudi funds as in Kaula Lumpur, Malaysia. Freedom of inquiry is problematic as well here, as boundaries of inquiry are legislated by the University’s charter. Instead of spiritual pluralism what results is uncritical traditionalism.

If we combine the first two choices we get a combination of religious hierarchy with feudal and national hierarchy, creating very little space for the academic. In the Indian context , this would be the brahmin who goes to Oxford to study economics, joins the world bank and returns to Delhi to work with the Ministry of Economic Development.

The third M is “Microsoft”, focusing one’s career on developing content for the new emerging universities. This is the quickly developing area of Net eudcation. The cost for the academic here too are high – it is contract work, often a loss of face to face, of collegial relationships, of the academy as a moral mission. Volume and speed are likely to become more important than integrity and the inner life.

The final M is McDonaldization. This is the move to the convenience 7/11 university, the Australian model. Large student volume, in and out, with academics having heavy teaching loads. A professorship essentially becomes focused on gaining grants.

Leaving these M’s is a possibility, dependent on the nature of the state one lives under. However, the traditional imagination of the university is not a possibility. The route in the last 50 years was the escape to the Western university, but with these universities too in trouble, this route seems blocked.

So far I have touched upon four trends: corporatization, virtualization, multiculturalism and democratization as well as basic missions of the University. Given these trends and missions, what are the possibilities for the university, what are the possible structures?

Possible Structures

I see three possible structures. One is being a University leader, joining the world’s elite, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford. The focus then is: “We are only going to get the best bright students around the world.” But the challenge to this model comes from the .com world. The big money is unlikely to be in teaching but in content design. The issue is though once you put your name on cdroms, on internet content, does that diminish your brand name, its exclusivity. If everyone can enter an elite university’s web course, is the university still elite? This is the issue of franchising. Should you focus on a small customer base that can pay a lot or become like the University of Pheonix (the largest university in the USA, offers no tenure, uses short courses as well as flexible delivery. A kind of just-in-time education).

For large universities, there are two clear choices – elite university or low cost producers with hundreds of millions of new students all over the world as potential purchasers. A third choice for the smaller university is the niche university –focused in a particular area of excellence. Not trying to be too much, just focused on one particular area (regional concerns, for example).

The question for the traditional university is new competition from global players: multi-media corporations, elite universities that are expanding and branding as well as low-cost producers.

These issues are already of concern in the USA, and soon they will be crucial here as well. It is harder to see this in East Asian nations (and those colonized by England) since the State plays such a strong role in education. But eventually in five or ten years the competition will come here as well. All universities will find themselves in a global market.

However, a university can find ways to be all these structures, developing different campuses. One could be focused on life-long learning, short courses. A second could be research focused, linked to government and industry. A third could be elite based, having student friendly teacher-student faculty ratios. The Net could link them all, or there could be a fourth virtual campus, a net university. In these worlds, what stands out is the loss of community education, of the university focused on place. However, as universities homogenize through globalization, communities may find niches.

Scenarios for the Future

The next question is what are the probable scenarios for the future of the university. We use scenarios to reduce uncertainty. Scenarios are also important in that they also help us rethink the present – they give us a distance from today.

Earlier futures studies focused entirely on single point prediction. The field then moved to scenario planning, to alternative futures. But now, it is moving to capacity development, with creating learning organizations where foresight is a continuous part of what the organization does.

Studies that examine corporations that have survived over a hundred years found that the one key factor in explaining longevity was the capacity to tolerate ideas from the margin. Even for corporate universities this is crucial – the capacity to tolerate dissent, indeed, to nurture different ideas, new ideas from the edge.

In terms of scenarios, the first one is the Star Alliance model. I use this term from the airlines – where the passenger is always taken care of – there is easy movement from one airline to the other. Everything is smooth. For the university, this would mean easy movement of student credits, faculty and programs. A student could take one semester at Stanford, and a second semester in Tamkang, and a third semester at Singapore National University. Professors could also change every semester. So it means a similar web of movement. Star alliance works because customers are happy. The airlines are happy because they get brand loyalty. The student might say “I know if I join this university, my credits are transferable. I could access the best professor, I could access the best knowledge in the world.

The weakness in this scenario is the proportioning of funds as well as the costs of movement to the local community, to community building, to place itself.

The second scenario is what I call, Virtual Touch. This vision of the future of the university combines the best of face-to-face pedagogy (human warmth, mentoring) with virtual pedagogy (instant, anywhere in the world, at your own time and speed). If it is just technology then you get bored students, staring at a distant professor. But if it is just face-to-face you don’t get enough information. The universities who can combine both will do very well.   Ultimately that will mean wearable wireless computers. We already know that in Japan they use the wireless phone to dial up a website and find the out the latest movie, or weather or stock quote.

In 10 years, it is going to be the wearable computer, so we’re going to have a computer with us all the time. I can find out everything, I can find out the minerals in water for example, testing to see if it is clean or not. And that technology is almost developed now. I can find out where was my microphone was made. Was it made in China, in Taiwan, in the U.K. I just dial up and I can get product information. And this information will be linked to my values, what type of world I want to see. Thus, I’ll purchase products that are environmentally friendly, where the corporation treats women well. And students will see university courses in the same way: is it well taught, what is the professor like, how much democracy is in the class, what are the values of the University?

The third scenario is: A university without all walls. It’s means the entire world becomes a university . As Majid Tehranian writes: “If all goes well, the entire human society will become a university without walls and national boundaries.” We don’t need specific universities anymore since the university is everywhere, a true knowledge economy wherein humans constantly learn and use their knowledge to create processes that create a better fairer, richer, happier world.

The Future of the Profession

Let me now return to the future of the academic. What is the role of the academic in this dramatically changing world? The first possibility is the traditional professor – this is the agent of authority, great in one field but knowing very little about other fields. They may know Physics but not complexity theory. They are useful in that they are brilliant in one area but not so useful since they have a hard time adapting to change.

The second role is the professor as web content designer. While the current age-cohort is unlikely to engage in these activities, younger people will – what has been called digital natives. For example, my children – 8 and 6 – clearly see their future in the design of new digital technologies. Other young people as well see knowledge as quite different than we do. They see knowledge as quick, as interactive, as multi-disciplinary and as always changing. They want to be web designers and information designers. So the old role of academics was to write books, the new role is that of creating new types of interactive content. And the content will likely be far more global, multicultural than we have so far seen. It appears to be an entirely different world being created.

That also means, if you are the web designer, your student becomes key. This means using action learning methods. Action learning means that the content of the course is developed with the student. While the professor may have certain authoritative knowledge, his or her role is more of a mentor, the knowledge navigator to help the student develop his or her potential within his or her categories of what is important.

 

This will be good news for academics who retain their positions. Most of the professors I speak with would prefer less teaching – information passing out – and more communication. The mentoring role is far more rewarding, personal. The old school was the long lecture. The new way of thinking is just tell the student to go the web and find out. Afterwards there can be a discussion. The Professor then has to learn how to listen to students’ needs and not just to lecture to them.

What is unique about our era is that we now have the technology to do this. Do we have the political will, the wisdom?

Community and the University

What do these trends mean for the University’s relationship with community? Clearly it is under threat. It is global corporatization or spaceless time that is far more important than local and immediate time. Community, however, can be an antidote to many of the threats. It could unite academics, falling back on each other to question the future of the university. On a more instrumental note, regional universities, or universities specifically designed and developed for a locale are a niche that is likely to become more, not less, important as the trends of globalization, virtualization, multiculturalism and democratization continue. Certainly, democracy needs the notion of community and multiculturalism is essentially about more and more community, higher and higher levels of inclusion.

There are four possibilities for Community Spaces

  1. Alliance with other communities – like minded learning communities. This is a novel challenge, and means moving outside the national arena as defining and searching for other communities in similar situations. Sister cities is a dimension of this, but far more important are real contact not photo opportunities.
  2. Alliance with the corporate world – attract businesses to survive.
  3. Communities aligning with social movements, that is creating moral space. Prosperity is an issue here, however, a strong local community can ensure that basic needs are met, even if globalized wealth does not raise everyone’s wealth (at least local strength will ensure that globalization does not reduce local wealth)
  4. The fourth possibility is that communities will themselves transform., There only hope is create Global-local spaces since academics are now becoming virtual and global. Only a program that has local place dimensions with global mobility dimensions can prosper.

Dissenting Futures

Let me conclude this essay with the issue of dissent. What makes the role of the academic unique is that he or she can challenge authority. When the system becomes too capitalistic, this can be questioned. If it is too religious, this too can be countered. All the excesses of the system can be challenged. And who can do this? Those who work for the government can’t since they fear losing their jobs. Those belonging in the church, temple or mosque can’t since they are ideologically bound. And this is the problem with globalization, by making efficiency the only criteria, moral space is lost. As academics we should never, I believe, lose sight of our responsibility to create new futures, to inspire students, to ask what-if questions, to think the unthinkable, to go outside current parameters of knowledge. This is our responsibility to current and future generations.

 

Selected References

Eyal Press and Jennifer Washburn, The Kept University in The Atlantic Monthly (March 2000), 39-54.

Glazer, Nathan. We are all Multiculturalists Now. Harvard, Harvard University Press, 1997.

Inayatullah, Sohail and Jennifer Gidley, eds. The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives on the Futures of the University. Westport, Ct., Bergin and Garvey, 2000.

Inayatullah, S. “The Multicultural Challenge to the Future of Knowledge.” Periodica Islamica, 1996, 6(1), 35–40.

Staff, “Online Education: Lessons of a virtual timetable,” The Economist (February 17, 2001), 71-75.

Tehranian, M. “The End of the University.” Information Society, 1996, 12(4), 444–446.

Wildman, P. “From the Monophonic University to Polyphonic Multiversities.” Futures, 1998, 30(7), 625–635.

Wiseman, L. “The University President: Academic Leadership in an Era of Fund Raising and Legislative Affairs.” In R. Sims and S. Sims (eds.), Managing Institutions of Higher Education into the Twenty-First Century. Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1991.

West and Non-West, Ego and Alter-Ego: Technological, Communicative and Microvita Futures Explored (2001)

Sohail Inayatullah. Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Tamkang University; International Management Centres Association, University of Action Learning; the Communication Center, Queensland University of Technology.

Keywords: Civilizations, Alternative Futures, Agricultural, Food, Macrohistory, Scenarios

Summary: The argument made in this article that there are generally two foundational global  futures – the artificial (globalization-technologization) era and the communicative-inclusive era. The basic perspective in the first scenario is that things rise – more progress, more technology, more development, more wealth and more individuality. This is generally the view of older age cohorts and those in the center of power. The second scenario is focused on inner and social transformation, whether because of green or spiritual values or because of the wise and moral use of technology. This is the vision of those marginal to the system – youth, women, the “others” – it is idealistic, and not beholden to the values of the Market or State but firmly entrenched in the People’s Sector. In contrast to the exponential curve of the first scenario, this scenario has a cyclical curve (returning to a more stable time) in some variations and a spiral curve (a return to traditional values but in far more inclusive terms) in other variations.

These two scenarios, images of the future, oscillate in the West. The West needs the latter, its alter-ego, to refresh itself.  Within this over all pattern, Collapse remains the fear (technology gone wrong or overpopulation from the South either because of the exploitation of nature or over-concentration of power and wealth) that spurs the West to constantly create new futures. The image of collapse is used as a call to action, to either join the technology revolution or the consciousness revolution, than as a firm belief in the end of the world.

We also argue that the West is by definition in crisis, indeed, crisis – the threat of collapse or a return to a slower time (an imagined past when men were men and economies were local, with chaos controllable) is how it refreshes itself. Without these two pillars, the West would have fallen to the way side and other civilizations would have reigned supreme.

In contrast to the West, the non-West follows a different pattern. The ego of the non-West has now been constructed by the West, such that as much as the non-West resists Westernization, it embraces it, becoming even more Western than the West, as, for example, Japan or Malaysia. The alter-ego, however, comes across in two ways: first as traditional, ancient indigenous knowledge, generally, focused not on the Western utopia but on the Indic and Sinic eupsychia – the cultivation and perfection of the self.  Related to this concern is the self-reliant, localist, community model of development and social relations. Second, as attempts to not only limit their understandings at local levels but making new claims for the universal. This perspective is best stated by the Indian philosopher, P.R. Sarkar. His theory of agriculture as well as the worldview behind it, which he terms Microvita, offers a new vision of the future of science, society and particularly of food and agriculture. The article concludes by exploring the impact of Sarkar’s theory on the future of agriculture and food.

Contents:

1.      Technological Fatigue

2.      Western Worldview

3.      Scenarios Of The Future

4.      Case Studies

5.      Values And Behavior

6.      Structure Of The Future

7.      The Non-West

8.      Local and Integrated Farming

9.      Sarkar’s Vision Of The Future

10.  The Microvita Revolution

 

1. TECHNOLOGICAL FATIGUE

Based on the massive 10 nation study of how individuals envisioned the Year 2000, Johan Galtung writes that the most pessimistic respondents where those that came from the richest nations. [1]  In particular, young people,[2] relevant here to us as potential carriers of a new worldview or at least as idealistic visionaries who can transform Industrial civilization, expressed a development fatigue. They had seen the limits of technology, and understood that social transformation and inner transformation was required. While respondents generally desired social and inner change, what they received were more technologies.[3]

The result of unfulfilled desired has been cognitive dissonance, at a foundational level, civilizational level.  The dissonance can be described as: a desire for social transformation but the reality of globalized technocracy: a discourse of fairness but global, national and corporate policies that discriminate against the poor, the indigenous, the young – the most vulnerable.

At one extreme it is the rush to join the MBA set (and now e-tech culture), to globalise, to work hard to ensure that one’s own future is bright, even if the rest of the ship is sinking (the Titanic metaphor of the future). Agriculture and farming in this perspective/strategy are not just seen as uneconomical but as dirty, as part of pre-industrial history. With history defined in linear terms, the past is to be avoided (and specifically left to the Others, the backward countries and races).

The second response has been the global backlash of the right – to resist multiculturalism (specifically, the alternative ways of knowing expressed by other cultures), and the other, through a return to extreme forms of one’s identity. This is the Islamic right wing or the Christian right wing and localist/nationalistic movements throughout the World.

In more respectable forms, this is scientism, wherein science (like god) is seen outside of history, the truth for all once they convert to the open inquiry of the scientific method.[4] Science delivers the future, creates the future, for one and all. As famed physicist, Michio Kaku said in reference to the new world being created by the technologies of genetic engineering, nano-technology and space research: get on the train or forever be left behind.[5] The reality of not being able to get on the train has, as in earlier times, as resistance to the march of progress in the American Western Frontier, been an attack on the train – on globalisation, on gene research, as well as on other ethnicities (since they are most easily visible when it comes time to determining who has taken away the jobs).

Farming in this alternative future of resistance to globalization is considered bright, largely because it is associated with the past – simple technologies – and with mono-culture. The past is considered far less chaotic, time was slower, one lived with the rhythms of nature, and Others lived far away.

A third alternative to the rush of the future is common in OECD nations, that of suicide, especially suicide among males. They end their physical life partly as they see no future, they are missing moral male role models and the only rituals left are those around consumption – the shopping mall as the great savior.

Agriculture and farming seen here not merely as an economic activity but as a ritual, as a way of life. It can be considered the antidote to the problem of modernity and post-modernity. The agricultural ways of life brings discipline and hard work. There are clear rules, corn is corn and is not seen as part of discourse, but living reality.   However, for technological globalists, it is exactly this past that must be creatively destroyed by higher and higher forms of capitalism – the train must go on, eventually become a plane, then a starship. However, with limited portals to the gates of the globalization train, what results are not only attacks on the train (as with fundamentalist movements) but jumping in front of the train (suicide and depression by those who cannot cope with an accelerating future, or who sense that they will have no part in this future).

Irrespective of the strategy taken by young (and old), at heart then is a crisis in worldview. However, generally research on how people see the future rarely explores these foundations. Instead data is presented focused on whether individuals are optimistic or pessimistic about the future – the search is for signs of despair and hope. Causes of suicide are either individualized (no discipline), blamed on unemployment and other social and economic problems, or related to genes.[6]  However, for causes to be sensible must be nested in the limits of the industrial and postindustrial worldview wherein reality is segmented into work (profit-making) followed by years of retirement.  An analysis of worldview must as well speak to an even deeper sense of myth and metaphor. At this level of analysis, the issue is what stories do we tell ourselves?

For individuals outside of the mainstream of the present (and thus open to alternative futures), the  problem for them is a story of the universe in which they are expected to behave in certain ways (become a worker, rational human being) and a reality that either denies this possibility (unemployment) and is utterly divorced from their world (the limits of the European enlightenment with respect to accessing other ways of knowing). There is thus a contrast to the world of globalization and secularization and the realities of emotions and identity creation.

So far we have pointed to the alternatives taken to jumping on the train to the future. First, there is cognitive dissonance since people do not want a train to the future but rather want the worldview behind the one-train perspective to be challenged. They want inner transformation and social innovation not the latest technology. Those that can not get on attack the train and yearn for earlier days. Others see no hope and jump in front of the globalization train. A fourth alternative is the postmodern, to see the entire exercise as socially constructed, so not only one train to the future but many trains and many other forms of transport (jet planes, camels, teleportation, telecommunication, walking, sitting still and imagining).

However, a problem with postmodernism is that it gives endless choices – virtuality – but with no foundation.[7]   Without this foundation, the result is a reality with too many selves – the swift Teflon vision of the future, where identity is about speed and the collection of a multitude of experiences, not about understanding the Other – not about deep communication wherein others (nature, other cultures, new technologies, even) are understood in their own terms.

Moreover the terms within which postmodernism includes others remains defined within the confines of the Western limitless worldview of accumulation. The choices, apparently multicultural, in fact, are about consumption, consuming other cultures. Virtuality merely creates the illusion of endless choice but not the fulfillment of having met and responded to a challenge. Nature, conditions of inequity and authentic alternatives to the postmodern are lost in this discourse. It is the response to the challenge that leads to inner growth, to economic and social development. The end result of postmodernity is depression, a condition that the World Health Organization has already made dramatic forecasts about. WHO estimates that by 2020 depression will be the leading cause of  “disability adjusted life years“ dramatically increasing the demands for psychiatric health services for young and old…[8]

2. WESTERN WORLDVIEW

However, as Galtung argues, it is too simple to say that the problematique is of the Western worldview, of the crises of the West. First since the West is ubiquitous and second since even closed societies exhibit similar problems. Third, it is a conceptual mistake to argue that the West is in crisis since this is a tautological statement.[9] The West by definition exists in this way. That has been the West’s success in expanding the last 500 years.  The West is not just linear in its evolution, it is also dramatic, apocalyptic (the end of the World, the collapse). The West by definition searches for the latest breakthrough, the victory, the challenge that can propel onwards.

But the other side of the West is its alter ego. This alter ego is focused not on expansion but on human rights. Not on the businessman but on the shaman, not on the mature adult ready to life and retire from the company (or kingdom or church) but on the youth that contests reality. Not on domination focused masculine principles but on partnership focused feminine principles. Not the city but the wild.

The challenge to official reality comes also from the outside, the periphery, for example, the Bedouins not vested in the normative and coercive power of the state, as Ibn Khaldun argues.[10]  Indeed, youth, women, mystics, those from traditional society, are the periphery. Even as many are part of the ego of the West (I shop therefore I am) many are of the alter-ego (I love therefore I am and I protest therefore I am). It has been the capacity of the West to appropriate counter movements – the challenge to official reality – to use youth, women, non-western cultures and others to transform itself from within that has been the success of making the West universal.  The incredible growth in the organic food industry is an excellent example of this. In this sense, the crisis in the West is not new, it is merely the alter-ego expressing the alternative West.

Farming and Food:

Within the framework of agriculture/farming, this  ego/alter ego oscillation comes out in two ways. The dominant is clearly the technological with the subservient the organic, the manual. In the technological, this has moved from industrial farming, and in recent times, to GM foods (for example, “everything from pickles and peanut butter to tofu and tomatoes is in the US injected with genes from arctic fish to make them frost resistant”[11]). The GM food future will eventually leading to functional foods, wherein foods will be injected with various vaccines (Tetanus or polio, for example) or fruit juices flush with psyllium for fibre or grapes with high amounts of lycopene for treatment of prostate cancer or applies spliced with an antioxident gene from strawberries)[12]. The alternative is community farming, a return to nature. Women are of course playing a leading role in the switch to consuming organic foods partly as the suffer more from health problems (as one would expect in patriarchy) but also as they are generally more concerned with future generations, with the health of their children.

However, it is mistake to see organic farming (community farming, perma-culture, etc) as outside the Western worldview, it is merely the shadow side of the technological.

We should this within the futures of agriculture expect to see a continued rise of both Wests – the transgenic food industry and the organic food industry (as well slippage in the organizational paradigms behind them, ie the former may become decentralized and localized while the latter may become like a real industrial era industry, moving away from its community “small is beautiful”  roots).

Understanding Structure:

Returning to our exploration of what individuals do when desires are unfulfilled (attack the train, jump in front of the train, etc), part of the problem with those responding to globalization is that they base their politics on a visible identification of the enemy. In the metaphor we have used, evil are corporate heads or mad scientists. The metaphorical dimension of the train representing  progress, the one-track as mono-culture nature of technology and the uni-direction is the commitment to progress at all costs.

Thus what is harder to see – beyond the visible litany – is the worldview, the codes that define what is real, what is important, what is beautiful, truth and reality. This becomes possible to see when one steps outside one’s own terms of reality and enters other cultures or time frames (creating an epistemological distance from the present and future).  Less difficult but still challenging is understanding structure, that is, historical processes that are actor invariant, such as class, patriarchy or varna (from sanskrit, loosely meaning color but generally a structure of power). While Marxists have focused on structure (the imperialists are the problem) as have muslims (Western Satans) but by resorting to conspiracy theories (using structure but unfortunately moving to specific cultures) they have lost legitimacy. Indeed, by focusing on evil and attempting to eliminate others, a war of attrition has resulted, where whomever is not the purest is bombed, as in South Asia and Yugoslavia.

Thus for those attempting to transform society, change appears to be easier when evil is clearer – whether a tyrant or a multinational such as General Motors or more recently Microsoft) or a world organization such as the World Bank. It is more difficult when structure (inequity) or worldview that must be challenged and transformed, that is, not the visible hardware but the harder to see software (actually, the problem is in the context that makes sense of hardware and software – the entire computing metaphor).

However, there is a worldview that comes across in a multitude of movements, each touching some dimension of the critique of what has come to be called globalization.  These are expressed in the form of the spiritual movements, the vegetarian movement, the green movement, the community movement, the human rights movements All these movements are generally supported by youth as cadres even if managed by aging hippies.  Thus, there is a clear age-cohort dimension to the future. As these young people age, what might the forms of social resistance take. What might be the mixture of cyber-protest, social movements, for example?

Later in this paper, we will investigate the structural parameters that may lead to success or failure for these movements. Suffice to say at this stage that how one sees the futures of change largely depends on whether one sees social change as linear or cyclical or spiral. For linear developmentalists, youth movements, spiritual movements, animal rights movements, community farming movements, are generally signs that (1) progress is occurring since history is complaining (2) these movements should be listened to since ignoring them only increases the costs to the system (but only if they cannot be mocked, avoided, imprisoned, first), and (3) generally the voices of morality have always complained, and technological/economic progress has always won. So as they in Australia: no worries. Stay on the track.

For cyclical thinkers, for example, such as Pitirim Sorokin,[13] systems reach their limits. Once reached they return to other periods in history. Each system can only express a certain level of reality. For example, as West qua materialism reaches its sensate peak, it marginalizes the spiritual. The system goes in crisis, and once it reaches this limit, it returns to an ideational system, focused on ideas, on morality. Progress becomes defined by proximity to God and not the capacity to purchase the real. Thus the current system has reached its natural limits and the alternative Ideational system is about to begin.

For spiral thinkers such as the late Indian philosopher and Master, P.R. Sarkar[14] – whom we will return to later – human social history move through stages. The workers era (shudra) focused on meeting basic needs. This led to the warrior era (ksattriya) where strength, challenges, honor were crucial. Empires resulted as power was centralized. Next comes the Intellectual Era (vipra) – power controlled by priests and monks – wherein ideas and their circulation is the key. The limit was reached when economic growth was avoided. In the battle between the monarch and the priest in European history, for example, it was the trader, the burghers outside the city walls, that emerged victorious. The capitalists (vaeshyas) entered the cycle and commodified workers, warriors and intellectuals. This is where we generally stand now. Next is a global worker’s revolution when the entire system will transform and move to a new era of Warriors (a centralized world governance system based on global ethics, honor and the meeting of new challenges, space, most likely). The spiral comes in that once the pattern is seen a new leadership can emerge and ensure that while the cycle turns, no group is exploited – neither worker, warrior, intellectual or trader – allowing the cycle to become a spiral.

The hypothesis then is that the crisis that the West faces are part of the West’s own renewal and clearly part of the fatigue of development.  They can also be nested in the structure of the time, the guiding worldview and the myth/story behind it.

Delay:

This fatigue, and resultant futures, has been delayed because of the internet revolution.  Earlier, calls for transformation where focused on the reinvigoration of farming and agricultural, of challenging industrial modes of family, organization, religion and sexuality. The farm meant a return to community, a rejection of the paradise of the (sub)burbs. A new age-cohort, screen-agers, as Douglas Rushkoff accurately calls them, have found a different way to express individuality.[15] It is quick time, quick communication and a chance to immediately lead instead of to follow. This will likely be even more delayed because of revolutions in genetics and nano-technology. While at one level delayed, at another level, the .com revolution is a youth explosion, of an expression of an alternative paradigm of social relations. Many small start- ups are multicultural, gender-partnership based and challenge traditional notions of working 9-5 and wearing black suits. They also offer a network vision of work and organizational structure. In this sense, they renew even as they delay more basic (needed) changes to globalization.

The issue then is the technological transformed promised by the Gene and Net revolution merely a continuation of globalization and technocracy or a structural and ideational foundational change?

Are the carriers of new social codes about the transformation of the dominant World culture – the West – or as part of the success of the West, itself?

3. SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE

Let us leave these questions for the time being and explore what types of futures are desired by groups and individuals throughout the world. Interestingly but not surprisingly, the ego and alter-ego of the West comes across in foundational scenarios of the future. These can be seen in popular and academic images of the future, and have certainly come across in visioning workshops in a range of countries.

Focusing on these scenarios is not to restrict the importance of individual trends such as disintermediation, aging, multiculturalism, the rights movement, global governance but to frame trends in the context of larger patterns of change. Scenarios or pictures of emerging futures is a far more integrative way of capturing such information.[16]

Globalized Artificial Future

The first is the globalized artificial future and the second is the Communicative-Inclusive future.[17]

The globalized scenario is high-technology and economy driven. Extreme features include, the right to plastic surgery and an airplane for each person. Generally, the vision is of endless travel and shopping, and a global society where we all have fun by having all our desires  met. It is the Western vision of paradise.

Food, while plentiful, in this scenario is identity based, ie food that defines self. Food is fun, food is exotic (Thai or Indian). Food is also mixed, eg Tex-Mex. Agricultural, as mentioned earlier, while at one level considered dirty, at another level, it is not considered at all, even if the reality is that world population increases require increased food production. Food, like other commodities, should be not scarce. It definitely should be globalized, all sorts easily available wherever one is. This is part of the postmodern/globalized thrust, of having all perspectives quickly and easily available In the long run, in this future, food will move from globalized food to transgenic food, moving not just from cultural diversity (many types of food) to genetically engineered food. For example, “the world market for transgenic products is projected to increase to $8billion in 2005 and 25$ billion in 2010. Corporate transactions related to ventures in GM seeds, agro-chemicals and research, valued at more than $ 15billion (from 1996-1999) is expected to keep pace.”[18] Overtime, food, will merge with pharmaceuticals, with the creation of functional foods, created for particular health needs.

Rural communities will be so not because they are agricultural based but because they are different from the city, indeed, they provide areas of respite for Earth as City: City as planet. Rurality may become redefined as areas of elite wealth and not as areas of cultural backwardness, as areas of limited choice, as, for example, the Australian Bush or the South Asian village are seen today.

More specifically, this scenario of the future can be defined as:

·                    Genetic Prevention, Enhancement and Recreation – New Species , Germ Line Engineering and the End of ‘Natural’ Procreation

·                    Soft and Strong Nano-Technology – End of Scarcity and Work

·                    Space Exploration – Promise of ET Contact or at Least, Species Continuation in case an Asteroid hits Earth.

·                    Artificial Intelligence and ultimately the Rights of Robots – development of personal artificial bots

·                    Life Extension and Ageing – Gerontocracy and the End of Youth Culture

·                    Internet and the Global Brain

·                    Globalization, large transnationals organizing production of needs and desires.

The underlying ethos is that technology can solve every problem and lead to genuine human progress.

At a grand level, this vision of the future challenges traditional notions of truth, reality, nature, Man and sovereignty. Truth is considered multiple, socially constructed. Reality is physical but as well virtual (cyberspace). Nature is no longer considered fixed but can be challenged and changed by humans, largely through genetic manipulation. While previously human evolution was stable, with cultural evolution quicker and technological evolution the quickest, now the technology has the potential to quicker human biological evolution itself. This fundamentally shifts the tension between culture and technology, to technology and biology, leaving culture where? The category Man has been has been deconstructed by feminists and shown to be historically constructed. And finally economic globalization makes sovereignty problematic and cultural globalization makes the sovereignty of the self (one stable self) porous, leading to far more liminal selves.

The impact of this vision and the underlying trends in the food area are singular. Genetically modified foods are the solution, especially since global agricultural production has been steadily declining since the Green Revolution of the 1960s’ and will continue to do so at 1.8% a year. With population increasing, along with a purchasing power (and technology and gene) divide, food production must dramatically increase.

Communicative-Inclusive

In contrast is the communicative-inclusive society, which is values driven. Consumption of every possible good in this scenario is far less important to communication. It is learning from another about another that is crucial. While technology is important, the morality of those inventing and using it is far more important. Instead of solving the world’s food problem through the genetic engineering of food, the reorganization of society and softer more nature-oriented alternatives such as organic foods are far more important.  Food is not only necessary for our biological growth but food is social (creating community) and food is spiritual (the correct foods helping one become more subtle and incorrect foods, crudifying one’s body/mind/spirit).

The goal is not to create a world that leads to the fulfillment of desire but one wherein desire is reduced (the Buddhist perspective) or channeled to spiritual and cultural pursuits. While earlier incarnations of the scenario were to make everyone into a worker (the Marxian distribution dream) or everyone into a shudra (a worker, the Gandhian sentiment) or a peasant (the Maoist), recent articulations are far more sophisticated and focused on what Sarkar[19] has called Prama – or dynamic balance. Prama means inner balance (of material/spiritual), regional balance (of nations, no one nation can be rich if the neighbor is poor), of industrial/agricultural production (not leaving the land but seeing it as part of national development) and of economic balance (self-reliance in basic needs plus export orientation of non-essentials).

Of course, in the USA, where only 2% work directly in the agricultural sector, balance should be defined differently. However, As Steve Diver argues in “Farming the Future”:

Though a dramatic increase in the farm sector is not appropriate in a developed economy, clearly more people would take up farming were it economically feasible.  In addition, when so many people are removed from the land and the experience of living and working around Nature, a cumulative collective psychological effect of dislocation and disconnectedness from self and one’s environment is likely.  Indeed, eco-psychologists suggest that many of the social ills present in industrialized countries are the result of such an imbalance.[20]

Along with balance, in this future, is diversity. In particular the pitfalls of reliance on genetic intervention are crucial here since they threaten biodiversity. Indeed, the Irish potato famine of the 1840s is largely because everyone plotted one crop. “Had the crop been biodiverse, the catastrophe would not have occurred.[21]

The alternative scenario gains credence as well since the logical conclusion of GM foods are nano-foods, or the fabled meal-in-a-pill. Of course, the pill will not be tasteless or odourless or emotionless (as currently imagined) – eating it will be a real virtual programmed experience. The pill will not just provide nutrients but evoke emotions, stimulate glands and for all practical purposes be everything we currently and historically associate with eating. Of course, the meal-in-a-pill still has to be invented but when it does, the issue will be what type of social situation will go with it? Once the collective meal is lost, what society will result? What ways then will there be to slow time down, to connect with others? How will the meal-in-a-pill fit into the food qua spirituality perspective?

It is these concerns that the communicative-inclusive scenario articulates and presents. Far more important than the meal-in-a-pill is the communicative nature of eating, of the importance of work for those producing food (work gives humans dignity), of the social design of food producers (not collectives nor corporations but cooperatives, sharing land and wealth), and of the health (physical, mental and spiritual) issues associated with food.

More specifically the communicative-inclusive scenario has the following characteristics:

·                    Challenge is not solved through technology but through creating a shared global ethics;

·                    Dialogue of civilizations and between civilizations in the context of multiple ways of knowing is the way forward;

·                    A balanced but dynamic economy. Technological innovation leads to shared co-operative economic system;

·                    Maxi-mini global wage system –incentive linked to distributive justice;

·                    A soft global governance system with 1000 local bio-regions;

·                    Layered identity, moving from ego/religion/nation to rights of all;

·                    Holistic science –life as intelligent.

The underlying perspective is that of a global ethics with a deep commitment that communication and consciousness transformation can solve all our problems.

The trends that underlie this scenario are as with the earlier scenario challenges to Truth, Reality, Nature, Man and Sovereignty but with a different angle. Instead of genetic science it is new paradigms in physics. Instead of a world ruled by multinationals, it is the growth of Green Parties and social movements associated with transparency  that are far more important.

Truth and Reality are seen as both ultimate (spiritual) and physical. It is multi-perspectual in that we make are own realities, however, there is an underlying non-constructed unity to reality – that of a moral universe driver by cause-effect. In one word: karma. This comes out from the growth of the spiritual movements and cosmological exchange (the non-West creating cultural bridgeheads in the West) as well as through the dramatic new health paradigm, which while essentially spiritual focuses on integrating mind-body, seeing both as essential to well-being.[22] Nature, however, is not to be tampered with. Urbanization is the problem and nature is given, indeed, a sacred trust given to humanity. Man is contested as humans are among the many species on the planet – nature, animals, with spiritual entities, Gaia herself. Sovereignty is challenged as nation-states are considered passe’ – part of the problem. A solution could be a planetary civilization based on the self-reliance model. Food would certainly be locally grown – and regional when required –  with the world government setting up policy standards (what level of chemical fertilizers what level of meat consumption allowed, and what levels of food can be exported).

However, this scenario should not be seen as anti-technology, although there are certainly groups that prefer aspects of this vision who are more luddite than others. But most likely technology is likely to be driven by ethical values. For example, technology could be used to give information on the caloric count of foods, so as to avoid high-fat foods. These health-bots could also immediately let one know the level of pollutants in the food, where the food was produced, and over time the social conditions that the food was produced in. Thus the net, cellular phones could be used to transform globalization from within, giving consumers information on products so that they could make choices consistent with their worldviews. Technology would thus serve as a moral guide, an angel over one’s shoulder, helping one do the right thing. [23]

However, while this is a change in paradigm, at a deeper cosmological level, it is not a foundational change, in that this scenario represents the alter-ego of the West. It is the West, contracting, searching for that identity it has unconsciously repressed.

4. CASE STUDIES

Within the theoretical context developed above, we now explore specifically what futures are likely to result. The likelihood of a particular future occurring is partly based on the desired future, that is, individuals are likely to work to create the futures they want. However, there are structural parameters that influence, that limit, the future as well. A later section of this article will explore these considerations.

In terms of the case studies presented below, they are based on the visions of young persons between the age of 15-25. This means that in 15-20 years they may be in policy positions to impact the future (at least the official ego future of the West and not the alter-ego, which they currently impact). The case studies below focus on how young people imagine their preferred futures as well as the type of alternative futures they see emerging. Of course, these case studies should be seen as indicative instead of conclusive, as among the signs of the emergent future.

1. Undergraduate Students at the Centre of European Studies, University of Trier- Agriculture and the Futures of Europe. [24]

Community/Organic:

The first and most popular scenario was the Community/Organic. In this scenario, young people moved away from the chemical corporate way of life and searched for community-oriented alternatives.  Local currency networks, organic farming, shared housing and other values and programs favored by the counter-culture were favored.  When asked why individuals would prefer this future, they responded that the current (1999) Dioxin contamination in Belgium (with similar scares in the future even more likely) could lead to quite dramatic changes away from artificial, pesticide and genetic foods, in the longer run.

Food was part of a larger life-style, paradigm issue. These young people imagined a community household system where goods and services were shared. However, one participant  imagined Europe not within the urban/community dichotomy but saw the entire of Europe as becoming community-oriented. This meant a clear move away from the view that I shop therefore I am  to I relate therefore I am. In this sense, the key way of knowing was not philosophy qua reason; or religion/state qua authority; or science quo empiricism, or even spirituality qua intuition but communication qua relationship. The self was no longer alone but nested in communities of care, each one expanding eventually leading to Gaia, herself.

This focus on relationship was also central for other participants, who did not specifically share the community/organic future. Indeed, it was the return to a strong family life that was pivotal in terms of how they saw the future of Europe. Taking care of children – and ensuring that the state provided funds for this – taking care of the elderly, and in general living so that familial relationship were far more important then exchange relations.

Clearly this scenario reflects the communicative-inclusive scenario identified earlier.

The Family:

In minor contrast to the community scenario, this future was far more focused on the nuclear family – the Family Future. Indeed, efforts to maintain this institution were considered crucial by some participants especially with the rise of genetic engineering, and the possibility of test-tube factories in the not so distant future.  Indeed, while more formal visioning workshops with technocratic experts examine scientific variables (such as the nature of future populations or income levels or possibilities of global catestrophes)[25], these students asked, “will I have children? How many? How will I spend my time with them?”  Issues of food/work etc were not as important as the personal nature of one’s family.

This of course should be understood in the context of the age of the respondents. Most likely, as they age and have families, this group will find itself drawn to the organic/community scenario.

Celebrating a Plastic Future:

However, other participants believed that the new technologies would be dominant and instead of resisting them we should rejoice. We should celebrate in artificial intelligence, plastic surgery, gene enhancement creating a Plastic Europe. Anonymity in fact gives freedom from other; it allows the individual to express herself, while community and family suppress the individual. The organic/community scenario, they believed, was reflective of the agricultural era – a time when individuals, especially women, did not have rights.

The new technologies as well promise great wealth. Indeed some argued that far more important than family life was single life. It gave choice; it was not steeped in outdated institutions such as marriage. Europe was flexible and it should remain so when it came to formal relations.

However, behind these preferred futures was the reality of disaster.

One participant argued that oil reserves would certainly run out, and Europe would quickly decline, while Africa, with its plentitude of sun, and eventually solar energy,  would rise. Mass unemployment in the context of Castle Europe – keep the barbarians out – was the likely future. AIDS, Ebola, and many other disasters loomed ahead. Nuclear technology could also lead to serious problems and new forms of energy were needed.  Unless alternative forms of energy were developed, the future was bleak.

However, a last perspective was that of technology transforming the future in a positive manner. The new technologies could create the possibility for a network instead of national identity. They allow creativity to grow, and along with more spiritual views of what it means to be human, let humans transcend their narrow limitations.  What Europe could offer was its multilingual focus, its vision of a multicultural society.  Food futures, in this scenario, were likely to be focused on diversity, that is, space for the organic, space for the industrial super market model and space for the genetically modified model.  No one model of how to farm, what to eat and who to eat with would become hegemonic. Social movements and the state (through electoral politics) would reduce the power of corporations. Corporations would as well be influenced through consumer spending, which more and would be focused on alternatives to the current shopping center, “food magically appearing in aisles” model.

These scenarios are echoed by Richard Eckersley in his research: Eckersley writes that young people: “expect to see new technologies further used to entrench and concentrate power and privilege: for example, they were almost twice as likely to believe that governments would use new technologies to watch and regulate people more as they were that these technologies would empower people and strengthen democracy. They want to see new technologies used to help create closer-knit communities of people living a sustainable. [26] This is at essence a mixture of the green/sustainable and transformational future and points to the fact that not all young people are experiencing cognitive dissonance – that many understand the system, and find strategies to work with it without being subverted by it.

These issues are not only European. For example, in a similarly structured  visioning workshop in Taiwan, the following emerged as preferred futures.

2. Taiwan in Global Futures –   Taiwanese Students at Tamkang University, Tamsui, Taiwan, May 1999.

One group imagined a globalized Taiwan with each citizen being super-rich, with their own airplane (the globalist artificial society). Another group imagined a softer, slower, organic future where farming was crucial (the communicative-inclusive). Technology linked them globally but there was no email imperative. Quality of life issues were as crucial as wealth issues. The China/Taiwan issue would be resolved by both entering a supernational federation where nation did not matter any more.

This latter scenario was quite surprising to older participants (one saying that it was a dangerous vision for the nation).  However, it can be explained by the fact that this younger new age-cohort do not have the memory of fleeing China, nor with the poverty of 50 years ago. As with their western counter parts, the have development/science and technology fatigue, and desire a far different life – a green, spiritual future.

5. VALUES AND BEHAVIOR

While these are exemplary case studies via visioning workshops, interestingly we find isomorphic results from Paul Ray’s and Sherry Ruth Anderson’s  study on Cultural Creatives.[27]

Arguing that the best single predictor of real behavior  are values, they divide Americans into three value groups. The first are the moderns. “The simplest way  to understand today’s Moderns is to see that they are the people who accept the commercialized urban-industrial world as the  obvious right way to live. They’re not looking for alternatives,” say Ray and Anderson.[28] They are committed to the “get on the train of progress view. Worldviews are generally those that others have since they believe that their definition of reality is the norm.

In contrast are the Traditionalists. They generally yearn for community, for small town life, traditional notions of nature. These notions are strongly nested in patriarchy, nationalism, and traditional texts (in the US, the Bible). One can easily see that this category is exportable throughout the world. In Taiwan, for example, to Confucian KMT nationalists. Or in Pakistan to the leading Islamic parties (focused on the Quran, here). All are equally distrustful of foreigners, desire to regulate sexual behavior and traditional gender roles.

They would likely reject the Communicative-Inclusive vision of the future (and of the course the Artificial Society) and prefer not a Back to Nature but what we might call, An Imagined Past, when the world was defined by nations and capital and labour mobility was restricted.

Ray and Anderson as well offer a third value orientation, where the believe lie the seeds of a cultural revolution – the Cultural Creatives. They:

·                    love nature and are deeply concerned about its destruction;

·                    are strongly aware of the problems of the whole planet and  want to see action to curb them, such as limiting economic growth;

·                    would pay more taxes or higher prices if you knew the money  would go to clean up the environment and stop global warming;

·                    give a lot of importance to developing and maintaining  relationships;

·                    place great importance on helping other people;

·                    volunteer for one or more good causes;

·                    care intensely about psychological or spiritual development;

·                    see spirituality and religion as important in your own life but are also concerned about the role of the religious Right in politics;

·                    want more equality for women at work and want more women leaders in business and politics;

·                    are concerned about violence and the abuse of women and children everywhere on Earth;

·                    want politics and government to emphasize children’s education and well being, the rebuilding of neighborhoods and communities, and creation of an ecologically sustainable future;

·                    are unhappy with both left and right in politics and want a new way that is not the mushy middle;

·                    tend to be optimistic about the future and distrust the cynical and pessimistic view offered by the media;

·                    want to be involved in creating a new and better way of life in their country;

·                    are concerned about what big corporations are doing in the name of profit: exploiting poor countries, harming the environment, downsizing;

·                    have  finances and spending under control and are not concerned about overspending;

·                    dislike the modern emphasis on success, on “making it,” on wealth and luxury goods;

·                    like people and places that are exotic and foreign, and enjoy experiencing and learning about other ways of life.

Along with these characteristics, Ray and Anderson believe that [29]

cultural creatives in their personal lives, they seek authenticity — meaning they want their actions to be  consistent with what they believe and say. They are also intent on finding wholeness, integration, and community. Cultural Creatives are quite clear that they do not want to live in an alienated, disconnected world. Their approach to health is preventive and holistic, though they do not reject modern  medicine. In their work, they may try to go beyond earning a living to having “right livelihood” or a vocation.

Their vision is consistent with the Communicative-Inclusive vision of the future. While we would assert here that this is merely the alter-ego of the West, Ray and Anderson believe that the cultural creatives represent the future, what others have called the Promise of the Coming Dark Age, or what Johan Galtung has called the Rise of the Middle Ages.[30] The Middle ages where, at least in the first part, about recovering the community lost in the nation-empire building of the Roman Empire. The Middle-Ages were fare more distribution than growth oriented. Of course, the vision of the cultural creatives is community but not with patriarchy or other types of feudal hierarchy. It is a response to modernity and postmodernity and not a reaction to it.

If we then see the West in historical phase shifts – from expansion to contraction (both being natural phases of the West) then we can image the future of the West become far more diverse, far more concerned with meaning, community, gender fairness, smaller. Does this mean then that expansion will then come from other civilization? Or is it possible as Ashis Nandy has argued for the creation of a gaia of civilizations.[31] That is, as the West contracts – finally understanding the Indic perspective that each civilization is incomplete in itself and needs the other –  the garden metaphor of a multitude of civilizations in eco-relationship with other may take root.

Instead of GM foods, organic foods might flourish. Instead of only growth, distribution might again become important. With a more balanced world system, especially in terms of gender relations, population would find a steady level (women would fine their economic and social power from themselves instead of through male children), and instead of the meal-in-a-pill, the image would be of a sharing of foods on community table. But what of the carnivores?

6. STRUCTURE OF THE FUTURE

It is the question of the carnivores that leads us to the next section. Essentially this is an issue of power. In the Gaian model – diverse but generally non-violent, reality created through shared negotiation – vegetarians modes of social and economic organization are far more likely. Vegetarian modes are softer on the Earth, allow for far greater production, and are non-violent. The values behind this perspective is one of self-reliance (lack of dependence on giant corporatist anonymous systems). But what to do with those that differ, what of the giant global system. Are there any possibilities that it will transform? Said, differently, can the West genuinely transform?

Thus, what is often lost in these important attempts to understand the future are the structural constraints and structural possibilities.  In this sense, few scenarios go beyond the dictates of the present (trend extrapolation) and the dictates of vision (aspiration scenarios).

Structural approaches explore the parameters of the possible future. What is probable, not because of current trends (although these are often defined by structural forces) or agency or but because of real historical limits.

If we begin to explore the long term, from a macrohistorical view, there are range of possibilities that define the shape of the long term.  In this essay, we focus on four factors.  We add Sarkar’s theory of varna [32]with Sorokin’s notion of super cultural systems[33] – already presented – with Wallerstein[34] and Eisler.[35] Wallerstein’s is based on class and Eisler’s is based on gender, as derived from her theory of Patriarchy.

Simply stated – and glossing quite a bit of history – there have been four structures.

1.                  World Empire – victory of warrior historical power – coercive/protective – sensate – patriarchy – ksattriya

2.                  World Church – victory of intellectual power – normative – ideational – patriarchy – vipra

3.                  Mini-systems – small, self-reliant cultural systems – ideational –androgny – shudra

4.                  World economy – globalizing economics along national divisions – sensate – vaeshyan

The question is, which structure is likely to dominate in the next 25 to 50 years? Can a new structure emerge? And of course, what does that mean for the futures of agriculture, food and rural communities?

Option 1 of a world empire is unlikely given countervailing powers – given that there is more than one hegemon in the world system and given that there is a lack of political legitimacy for recolonization, for simply conquering other nations. The human rights discourse while allowing intervention in failing nations still severely delimits nation to nation conquest.

Option 2, a world church, is also unlikely given that there are many civilizations (from Muslim to Christian to Shinto to modern secular) vying for minds and hearts. While the millennium has evoked passions associated with the end of man, and the return of Jesus, Amida Buddha or the Madhi, the religious pluralism that is our planet is unlike to be swayed toward any one religion. In this the Gaia model is possible.

Option 3 – 10000 nations/communities –  is possible because of potential decentralizing impact of telecommunication systems and the aspiration by many for self-reliant ecological communities electronically linked. However, small systems tend to be taken over by warrior power, intellectual/religious power or larger economic globalizing propensities.  In the context of a globalized world economy, self-reliance is difficult to maintain. Moreover, centralizing forces and desire for power at the local level limits the democratic/small is beautiful impulse.

Option 4, the world economy, has been the stable for the last few hundred years but it now appears that a bifurcation to an alternative system or to collapse (and reconquest by the warriors) is possible.  Crises in environment, governance, legitimacy all reduce the strength of the world system.

Revolutions from above (global institutions from UN, WTO, IMF) and regional institutions (APEC) and revolutions from below (social movements and nongovernmental organizations), revolutions from technology (cyber democracy, cyber communities and cyber lobbying) and revolutions from capital (globalization) make the nation far more porous as well as the chaotic interstate system that underlies it.[36]

However, none of these problems can be solved in isolation thus leading to the strengthening of global institutions, even for localist parties, who now realize that for their local agendas to succeed they must become global political parties, globalizing themselves, and in turn moving away from their ideology of localism and self-reliance.

Thus what we are seeing even in the local is a necessity to move to the global. There is no other way. Again, this tallies with the cultural creatives as well as with the modernists (but not the traditionalists). The issue, of course, is which globalism? The technocratic version or the gaian version? Can there be a world system that is localized?

Choices

For the West there are three choices as the world economy model falters: (1) Import labor, open the doors of immigration and become truly multicultural and younger. Those nations who do that will thrive financially (the US and England, for example), those who cannot because of localist politics will find themselves slowly descending down the ladder (Germany and Japan, for example).

As the West becomes more multicultural, many types of farming futures  will result. Some industrial, some very small scale (the recreation of suburban neighborhoods by recent immigrants who are in search of land and their traditional local self-reliance). Indeed, the aged might find purpose through small farming, joining recent immigrants in city plots.

The second choice is dramatically increase productivity through new technologies, that is, fewer people producing more goods (or a mix of immigration and email outsourcing). While the first stage is the convergence of computing and telecommunications technology (the Net), nano-technology is the end dream of this. Farming and food, as mentioned earlier, become swallowed by the technocratic discourse, the meal-in-a-pill.

The third choice is the reengineering of the population – creating humans in hospitals. This is the end game of the genetics revolution. The first phase is: genetic prevention. Phase two is genetic enhancement (finding ways to increase intelligence, typing second, language capacity) and phase three is genetic recreation, the creation of new species, super and sub races. In this future, the goal will be to design humans who do not need to eat, or where food is not a problem, or where food is totally recyclable (ie. what you eat, you excrete and then eat again – after the nano-bots clean up the waste).

THE NON-WEST

Which future is structurally likely then? The technocratic-one train vision wishes for a globalized world constricted by  nations-states and Western culture as the backdrop. They will likely get the globalized world but the cost to them will be a softer Western culture, a transformed Western culture. The communicative-inclusive hope for a world of communities – self-reliance, ecological, electronically linked, in gender and global partnership – without any world government system. [37]

Structurally, however, this is next to impossible since it is likely that they will get the vision but not without a global government system that sets new rules that constrict the power of the carnivores (the question will be will they remain carnivores, or will moral and spiritual development have evolved to new levels).

We are thus likely to get a global world system that is informed by the alter-ego of the West. But where is the Non-West in all this, except as providing the seeds for the renewal of the West. We now for the rest of this essay focus on the responses of the non-West. The two Non-Wests, ego and alter-ego.

In contrast to the West, the non-West follows a different pattern. The ego of the non-West has now been constructed by the West, such that as much as the non-West resists Westernization, it embraces it, becoming even more Western than the West, as, for example, Japan or Malaysia. This is the classic love-hate relationship. The non-West own future trajectory having been altered by the West, it finds itself resisting and desiring to be like the West.  Resistance comes in the form of fundamentalist movements, that challenge Western power through acts of terror. At another level, this is expressed at international UN/WTO- type meetings where issues of fairness, sovereignty, access to technologies, national debts are discussed. With the memory of colonization fresh, redress is the key issue. But as with the Roman Empire, where the barbarians attack not to remove Rome but to become even more Roman, we find Asian and African nations striving to become even more Western – quicker, more technological, more commodified, and more exploitive of women, nature and labor.

Thus we see national policy far more pro-big farming, landlords, agri-business and far readier to speculate on the world futures markets (and ready to complain when they lose  as a conspiracy against Asia).

The Alter-Ego:

But of far more interest is the alter-ego. This comes across in two ways: first as traditional, ancient indigenous knowledge, generally, focused not on the Western utopia (the perfection of society) but on the Indic and Sinic eupsychia – the cultivation and perfection of the self. Second, as attempts to not limit their understandings at local levels but to make new claims for the universal. While the former is most conducive to cosmological exchange and indeed forges a partnership between the West and Non-West (Gandhism, Tibetan Buddhism, Zen) the latter is far more problematic for the West, since it challenges the West’s universalism.

8. LOCAL AND INTEGRATED FARMING

In terms of the first model of traditional knowledge (return to pre-contact Asia or Africa), the implications for farming include the following. The general model is one focused on self-sufficiency, water conversation, afforestation, international coordination and cooperation of water and tree regimes, as much as possible organic fertilizers (with limited use of chemical fertilizers), the creation of cottage industries for local people, alternative energy production, and local research center. While it appears to be a pre-industrial model, the use of Net technologies for sharing information on the local, allows a new model for global development. We quote extensively from the P.R. Sarkar’s classic work, Ideal Farming [38]as an exemplary text. His system of integrated farming as a backbone for a new development model includes the following:

·                    Organic farming

·                    Afforestation using scientific and local knowledge in terms of which trees should be planted first (fast growing trees such as cassuarina, sisir (Albezzia Lebbeck), sissoo (Dalbergia), red sandalwood, etc. and second (slow growing trees such as teak which also provides green cover and can be harvested after 30 years or so.

The fast growing trees can be cut after three years, providing an additional source of income for local power.

·                    For afforestation, surface water must be conserved. This is best done by creating small-scale lakes and ponds. Along the lakes and ponds, Sarkar suggests the types of plants that should be used around lakes .Thee include slope plants (pineapple, asparagus, aloe vera, etc), Boundary plants (palm trees, vegetables and fruits), Wire plants (creeping vegetables around a brick wall with a wire fence to keep out animals), Aquatic plants and Surface plants.

·                    Riverside plantations to prevent floods, conserve water, regulate the flow of water in rivers, and keep the soil moist and fertile.

·                    River projects must not be left to one country alone, an international governance system must be set up to ensure the coordination of water conservation and development

·                    Planting of medicinal crops based on the Ayurvedic system

·                    The Maximum utilization of land through crop rotation, crop mixing and supplementary cropping

·                    A range of energy projects including, solar, bio-gas, small scale hydro-electric, bio-mass power, and of course thermal power from coal and other fossil fuels.

While Sarkar, and others such as Aurobindo, provide details suggestions the overall point is that agriculture cannot be relegated to a side-show. Decentralization of the economy is crucial for well-being. This is contrast to the ego of Asia which is focused on economic development that is city-based. The underlying metaphor is of the streets of London town  paved with gold. Cities represent economic growth,[39] while rurality represents stupidity and backwardness.  The city is modern and Western, the village is the shameful face of the non-West. For secular modernized Asians, however, the village represents traditional feudal society. Sarkar’s model is about transforming the village economy, modernizing it through selective science, but generally using indigenous knowledge of greening the environment. He has developed a new model focused on creating small self-reliant, ecological, spiritual, knowledge-intensive communities throughout the world. This has been crystallized at Ananda Nagar, Bengal, the city of Bliss, wherein the alter-ego of the non-West can flourish.

9. SARKAR’S VISION OF THE FUTURE

The Universal dimensions of Sarkar come not from the alternative farming regime or his focus on self-reliance and community building (which is a common theme throughout Asia and Africa) but from the alternative worldview that shapes it. We now in detail investigate this view, concluding with what it means for the future of farming and food.

Sarkar gives us a new map in which to frame self, society, other, nature and the transcendental. One way to think about this is to imagine Sarkar’s scheme as if it was a library.  Instead of floors on government documents, the humanities, social sciences and science (as in conventional libraries), he redesigns the real around the following orderings of knowledge, floors if you will: Tantra (Intuitional Science); Brahmacakra (cosmology, the evolutionary link between matter and mind); Bio-Psychology (the individual body and mind); Prout (specifically, the social cycle, economic growth and just/rational distribution, and the sadvipra, or spiritual leadership); Coordinated Cooperation (gender partnership in history and the future); Neo-Humanism (a new ethics); and, Microvita (the new sciences and health). Certainly a library as constituted by Sarkar’s categories would be dramatically different from current libraries.

At heart, Sarkar’s alternative worldview is about transformation. Sarkar’s strategies of transformation include:

·        Individual transformation through the Tantric process of meditation and the enhancement of individual health through yoga practices that balance one’s hormonal system;

·        Moral transformation through social service and care for the most vulnerable;

·        Economic transformation through the theory of Prout and samaj or people’s movements, as well as through self-reliant master units or ecological centres (As with Ananda Nagar, mentioned above);

·        Political transformation through the articulation of the concept of the sadvipra, the spiritual-moral leader, and the creation of such leaders through struggle with the materialistic capitalistic system and immoral national/local leaders;

·        Cultural transformation through the creation of new holidays and celebrations that contest traditional nationalistic sacred time-space places (such as childrens’ day) and through the recovery of the world’s spiritual cultures as well as through the establishment of Third World social movements that contest the organisational hegemony of Western organisations;

·        Language transformation through the elucidation of a new encyclopedia of the Bengali language and through working for linguistic rights for the world’s minorities;

·        Religious transformation through upholding the spiritual reality that unites us all while contesting patriarchal and dogmatic dimensions of the world’s religions;

·        Scientific transformation by rethinking science as noetic science as well as laying bare the materialistic and instrumentalist prejudices of conventional science; and

·        Temporal transformation by envisioning long range futures and designing strategies for centuries and future generations to come.

For the purposes of this article, two concepts are crucial. They are (1) Neo-humanism and (2) Microvita.

Sarkar’s theory of Neo-Humanism aims to relocate the self from ego (and the pursuit of individual maximization), from family (and the pride of genealogy), from geo-sentiments (attachments to land and nation), from socio-sentiments (attachments to class, race and community), from humanism (the human being as the centre of the universe) to Neo-Humanism (love and devotion for all, inanimate and animate, beings of the universe).  These can be called windows of compassion “which determine the set of beings identified as sufficiently similar to self to deserve equal consideration.”[40] The challenge is to expand our window to include all that is.

Paramount here is the construction of self in an ecology of reverence for life not a modern/secular politics of cynicism.  Spiritual devotion to the universe is ultimately the greatest treasure that humans have; it is this treasure that must be excavated and shared by all living beings.

Neo-humanism is essential to creating  prama. This means that plans and animals as well have existence rights. Writes Sarkar:

The biological disparity between animal and plant – that disparity must not be there.  Just as a human being wants to survive, a pigeon also wants to survive – similarly a cow or a tree also wants to survive.  Just as my life is dear to me, so the lives of other created beings are also equally dear to them.  It is the birthright of human beings to live in this world, and it is the birthright of the animal world and plant world also to remain on this earth.[41]

What this means is ensuring that animals and plants are not treated cruelly, that vegetarianism becomes the dominant food regime.

Writes Diver on the impact of Neo-humanism on farming.

The adoption of Neo-Humanism in modern agriculture will require a shift in sentiment and an alternative agriculture scenario wherein animals continue to play an essential role in both economical and ecological terms, but are not simply raised for slaughter. Positive examples of a Neo-Humanistic animal agriculture are: pastures used solely to raise livestock for slaughter are planted into woody and herbaceous biomass crops; animal manures supply biofertilizers and composts; weeds and brush are controlled by grazing instead of herbicides; animal products (dairy, wool, and eggs) are obtained without harming the animal; other animal products (leather products and organic fertilizers like feather, fish, bone, and blood meal) are obtained when animals die from old age.[42]

Of course, for Sarkar – and this is the problem from a globalist Western view – initiated numerous social and political movements to realize these goals. PCAP (Prevention of Cruelty to Animals and Plants) was started in 1978 and the Universal Proutist Farmer’s Federation (UPFF) in 1966. By universal, he means not based on any one nation or planet. These are part of his grander political movement known as Prout – the progressive theory of utilization. Prout is a global political party, and at the same time, it is a decentralized social movement, focused on self-reliant economics, gender partnership, neo-humanist ecology, among other characteristics. It intends to challenge both capitalism (in terms of distribution) as well as other models (for not, interestingly focusing enough on providing  basic needs and maximum amenities – that is, increasing real per capita income).

The implications for the future of farming and food are many. First, farming is nested in an alternative social-political model. Second, farming is placed in an alternative model of what it means to be human and not-human. Third, farming is seen as central for national and global development. Fourth, farming is essential for the non-West to realize its potential and develop indigenous sciences. Fifth, food can be divided into the following.[43]

·        Food for health (vegetarian food),

·        Food for conscience, ethical foods, non-violence for the creatures eaten, their living conditions,

·        Food for Social Justice – for the creation of a just society, where basic needs are met and there is increased purchasing capacity, ie food that challenges structural violence and poverty, and

·        Food for the spirit (food that enhances one’s meditation and other spiritual practices through stimulating the bodies inner chakras (or physical/psychic/spiritual centres) and

·        Food for the Future (food that is focused on the vibration of who made the meal as well as ultimately food that is synthetically made).

10. THE MICROVITA REVOLUTION

But perhaps the most interesting – and out of the box worldview – is Microvita.

Microvita is the organizing concept that provides a link between the spiritual and the physical. Microvita are the software of consciousness just as atoms are the hardware, Diver argues. They are both ideas and the material, what many have called spiritual vibration in colloquial language.  Positive microvita enhance one’s own health and can create the conditions for a better society.  Indeed, they can be active in social evolution. They are related to one’s thoughts but are also external, that is, microvita move around the universe shaping ideas and the material world.  They can be used by spiritually evolved individuals to spread ideas throughout the planet, indeed, universe.  Microvita are not dead matter but alive, and can be used for spiritual betterment. Microvita provide a link between ideational and materialistic worldviews. They help explain the placebo effect in medicine (through attracting positive microvita) as well as psychic healing (the transfer of microvita from one person to another).  However, the concept of microvita still remains theoretical. They have yet to be empirically verified, even if there are a few hundred individuals practicing microvita meditation.

In terms of the impact on farming and food, Diver is instructive. He writes.

Two broad areas in which microvita research has immediate promise in agriculture are:  the interaction between microvita and biofertilizers, and formulations of chemical fertilizers for specific purposes. Biofertilizers such as animal manure, compost, and biogas sludge are a basic component of eco-agriculture systems like organic and biodynamic farming.  Biofertilizers provide humus and increase biological activity in the soil, thus resulting in better soil tilth, improved water infiltration and water-holding capacity, and enhanced resistance to crop pests.  However, in addition to these scientifically-documented benefits, farmers that use biofertilizers commonly ascribe a subtle ‘vital’ quality to their soils and produce.

Microvita thus provides the theory for observations that certain types of crops – farmed properly – enhance the life force of crops.

According to Sarkar:[44]

There are two types of fertilizer – organic and inorganic.  When fertilizers are used, bacteria is also being used indirectly.  This bacteria functions in two ways – one is positive and the other is negative.  When you utilize biofertilizer bacteria, that is organic fertilizers, the function of the bacteria will only be positive.  You should start practical research into positive microvita from the study of biofertilizers and their positive functions.

Thus crops can be enhanced through the application of positive microvita. This could lead to increased health of those who consume the microvita enhanced foods. Clearly a different approach than the genetically altered model.

Writes Diver:[45]

Sarkar provided two examples whereby differences in microvita makeup can bring about qualitative changes in crops.  The first is jute in Bengal.  Although the seed source may be the same, when jute is raised in Bengal there is a clear difference in the quality of jute fibres between the districts of Maymansingha, Jalpaiguri, and Murshidabad.  The reason for this difference is variation in the number of microvita.  The second is potato.  Even when the same type of fertilizer is used, the rate of production and taste of potatoes between plots may not be uniform in all cases.  The cause lies in the number and denomination of microvita.  In this instance the difference in the number of microvita in oxygen accounts for the contrast.

And:[46]

Other research topics in agriculture where the subtle manipulation of microvita may produce interesting results include: microbial inoculants for composts and soils, biodynamic preparations, herbal medicines and botanical extracts, specialized foliar fertilizers, homeopathic remedies for farm animals, and seed treatments.

Microvita research can also play a role in understanding differences between chemical fertilizers. Fertilizers from two different mineral deposits may have the same elements but differ in terms of microvita. The common expression, “nitrogen is nitrogen is nitrogen” is thus foundationally challenged.

Clearly, if microvita theory is true or if it helps explain the vitalism paradigm used for example in places like Findhorn, it could revolutionize agriculture. What it means that while agriculture and industry are developed in terms the understanding of the interactions at the material level, we are undeveloped at understanding the spiritual level, and how the spiritual level, interacts with the material level.

However, while microvita agriculture is dramatically different from gene modified agriculture, it is also similar. Just as GM foods promise improve health (by changing the structure of food) so does microvita agriculture. One goes from industrial foods to GM foods to Nano-food, concluding with a meal-in-a-pill to even possible the redesign of humans so energy comes in and out differently.  The other goes from organic food to energetic food to spiritual food.One takes materialism to its extreme, the other takes spirituality to its extreme. Both foundationally change evolution. Indeed, Sarkar imagines that humans will generally take over the duties of nature. However, he is gravely concerned about the politics of current science and the morality it operates under. A microvita science promises revolution (for example unleashing new forms of energy for galactic travel) in every possible sphere, but ultimately microvita is about inner happiness, bliss.

Is Microvita theory then the alter-ego of the Non-West? This is unlikely, rather, it appears to be an attempt to move the discourse forward and create the basis for a planetary civilization that has elements of the universal/globalist dimension as well as the communicative/inclusive vision of the future. Microvita starts with the local and the community but then moves far beyond offering not a reaction to modern science but a model of a new science.

However, most agriculturalists in the West would avoid, indeed, dismiss, such a discussion (no evidence of it and the theory is based on non-Western ideas, that is, it is culturally too dissimilar to understand). But if the West’s alter-ego phase expands, if the cultural creatives continue to grow as a group, then the ideas of Sarkar, and others, could become not words and world from the edge, but the dominant way we see the world.

Meal-in-a-pill or pass the microvita salad?


[1] Johan Galtung, “The future: a forgotten dimension,” in H Ornauer, H Wiberg, A Sicinki and J Galtung, eds, Images of the World in the Year 2000 (Atlantic Highlands, NJ: Humanities press, 1976).
[2] For more on youth futures, see Jennifer Gidley and Sohail Inayatullah, eds. Youth Futures: Comparative Research and Transformative Visions. Westport, CT., Praeger, 2001 (forthcoming).
[3] Johan Galtung, “Who got the year 2000 right – the people or the experts,” WFSF Futures Bulletin, 25, 4, (2000), 6.
[4] See Ziauddin Sardar, Thomas Khun and the Science Wars.Cambridge Books, Icon, 2000.
[5] Speech at Humanity 3000 Symposium. Seattle Washington. September 23-26th. See for details on this: Sohail Inayatullah, “Science, Civilization and Global Ethics: Can we understand the next 1000 years?” Journal of Futures Studies (November 2000). www.futurefoundation.org
[6] And clearly the unemployment figures for youth are no laughing matter, generally hovering around the 40-50% mark throughout the world, worse in poorer nations. In New Zealand, based on 1996 statistics, for example, 42.7% of the unemployed were between the ages of 15-25 while this group makes up 21.2% of the population. And as in most areas, minority groups are hit the hardest. In New Zealand, for example, maori and pacific islander youth have twice the unemployment rate as compared to Caucasian youth. See: www.jobsletter.org.nz.
[7] See, Ziauddin Sardar, Postmodernism and the Other: The New Imperialism of Western Culture. London, Pluto Press, 1998.
[8] www.who.org, See, World Health Organization, The Global Burden of Disease, 1996. http://www.who.int/.   See, Caring for Mental Health in the Future. Seminar report commissioned by the Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios. Kluver Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1992, 315.  See as well: The Global Movement for Active Ageing. http://www.who.org/ageing/global_movement/index.html.
[9] Johan Galtung,  On the Last 2,500 years in Western History, and some remarks on the Coming 500,” in The New Cambridge Modern History, Companion Volume, ed. Peter Burke (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979).
[10] Ibn Khaldun, The Muqaddimah (An Introduction to History). Translated by N.J. Dawood. (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1981). Fifth printing.
[11] Ajay Singh,” A Foretaste of the Food for Tomorrow,” Asiaweek (August 20-27, 2001), 72.
[12] Ibid., 73.
[13] Pitirim Sorokin, Social and Cultural Dynamics. Boston, Porter Sargent, 1970.
[14] See, Sohail Inayatullah, Situating Sarkar: Tantra, Macrohistory and Alternative Futures. Maleny, Australia and Ananda Nagar, Gurkul Publications, 1999.
[15] Doug Rushkoff, Children of Chaos. New York: Harper Collins, 1996.
[16] For more on this, see, Sohail Inayatullah, ed., The Views of Futurists: Volume 4 of the Knowledge Base of  Futures Studies. Melbourne, Foresight International, 2001. CD-ROM. Also see, Sohail Inayatullah and Paul Wilman, eds,. Futures Studies: Methods, Emerging Issues and Civilizational Visions. Brisbane, Prosperity Press, 1998.
[17] For more on these, see Sohail Inayatullah, “Structural Possibilities of Globalization,” Development (December, 2000).
[18] Ajay Singh, op cit, 73.
[19] See, P.R. Sarkar, Prama. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1987.
[20] Steve Diver, “Farming the Future,” in Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Fitzgerald, eds. Transcending Boundaries: P.R. Sarkar’s Theories of Individual and Social Transformation. Maleny, Australia and Ananda Nagar, India, Gurukul Publications, 1999.
[21] Ibid., 73.
[22] The texts are in the thousands now but among the best are the works of Deepak Chopra. The most scientifically respectable are the studies by Dean Ornish.
[23] For more on this, see, Sohail Inayatullah, “Your computer, Your conscience,” The Age (August 26, 2000), 6.
[24] The first case study is based on a sample of ten students who attended a month-long intensive course on civilization and the future. The course was held June 1999 at the Centre for European, University of Trier, Germany. After a four week introduction to critical and multicultural futures studies, the following scenarios emerged.
[25] See, for example, Sohail Inayatullah, “Futures Visions of Southeast Asia: Some Early Warning Signals,” Futures, 27,6, July/August (1995), 681-688;
[26] Richard Eckersley, “Portraits of Youth. Understanding young people’s relationship with the future,” Futures (Italics) 29 (1997): 247.
[27] Paul Ray and Sherry Ruth Anderson, The Cultural Creatives. New York, Harmony Books, 2000. See: www.culturalcreatives.org.  See review on the Net by Peter Montague.
[28] From the review by Peter Montague.
[29] Ibid.
[30] Johan Galtung, op cit.
[31] See Ashis Nandy and Giri Deshingkar, “The Futures of Cultures: An Asian Perspective,” in Eleonora Masini and Yogesh Atal, eds., The Futures of Asian Cultures. Bangkok, Unesco, 1993.
[32] For Sarkar, the future is contoured by Sarkar’s notion of four types of power (worker, warrior, intellectual and merchant or chaotic/service; cooercive/protective; religious/intellectual; and, remunerative).
[33] For Sorokin, the future is based on on culture and is derived from his ideas of  three types of systems (sensate focused on materialism, ideational focused on religion and integrated, balancing earth and heaven).
[34]  Immanuel Wallerstein, “World System and Civilization,” Development: Seeds of Change (1/2, 1986).
[35] Riane Eisler, Sacred Pleasure. San Francisco, HarperCollins, 1996.
[36] As mentioned earlier, A countervailing force are revolutions from the past – the imagined past of purity and sovereignty (economic sovereignty, racial purity, and idealized good societies), which (1) seeks to strengthen the nation state (to either fight mobility of individuals –immigration – or mobility of capital – globalization – or mobility of ideas – cultural imperialism and (2) seeks to create new nation states (ethno-nationalism).[37]Indeed, this is true across cultures. In one workshop in Malaysia, Islamic leaders (mullahs, scholars, youth, government servants) asserted that their preferred future for the Islamic world was based on the following:1.        self-reliance ecological communities electronically linked

2.        a global ummah (world community)

3.        gender parternship

4.     alternative, non-capitalist economics

[38] P.R. Sarkar, Ideal Farming – Part 2. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1990.
[39] This has come across clearly in futures workshops in Asia. One particular  in Bangkok found that the issue was not just too many cars and the resultant pollution but the entire big-city outlook. Central to this outlook is the degradation of the rural.
[40] Andrew Nicholson, “Food for the Body, Mind and Spirit of All Being: A Neo-Humanist Perspective,” in Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Fitzgerald, Transcending Boundaries, 197.
[41] .Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar, “Renaissance in All the Strata of Life”,  Prajina Bharatii (March, 1986), 3-6.
[42] Diver, op cit, p. 211.
[43] Andrew Nicholson, op cit, pages 194-207.
[44] Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar, Ideal Farming:  Part 2, 9.
[45] Diver, op cit, 220.
[46] Ibid.

Terror and World System Futures (2001)

Sohail Inayatullah[1]

The events of September 11, 2001 should be seen in global human terms as a crime against humanity and not as a war against anyone. This is not only because those in the WTC come from many nationalities [2] but as well issues of solidarity and efficacy of response move us in that direction.. In this sense, the framework for dealing with terrorism must be from a strengthened World Court (in the context of a reformed United Nations), just as those responsible for Rwanda and Srebrenica have been dealt with (or will be dealt with).[3] That international law has not prevailed in this conflict tells us a great deal of the nature of the world system (it is still strategy and power that define and not the rule of law or higher culture). That he has not done so reinforces the nation-state and moves us away from world law, and, indeed, world peace. Years later we will look back at this costly mistake in dismay – what could have been and the path that was not followed. 

While Bush should be commended for the search for allies in the Islamic world, seeking an indictment within a world court framework would not have only granted increased legitimacy – for a campaign that has been increasingly seen like vengeance, (not to be mention economically motivated), and not justice – but created a precedence for the trial of future terrorists (of cyber, biological, airline and other types). 

The equation that explains terror is: perceived injustice, nationalism/religious-ism (including scientism and patriarchy), plus an asymmetrical world order.  One crucial note: explanation is analytically different from justification. These acts, as all acts of mass violence, can not be justified. 

The perceived injustice part of the equation can be handled by the USA and other OECD nations in positions of world power. This means authentically dealing with Israel/Palestine as well as the endless sanctions against Iraq. Until these grievances are met there can be no way forward.  Concretely this means making Jerusalem an international city, giving the Palestinians a state, and ensuring that there are peace keepers on every block in Israel-Palestine. It means threatening to stop all funding to both parties (the 10$ billion yearly from the USA to Israel, for example, and from Saudi Arabia and others to the Palestinian authority). It means listening to the Other and moving away from strict good/evil essentialisms, as Tony Blair has attempted to do in the Middle-East (or more appropriately South-West Asia).  Dualistic language only reinforces that which it seeks to dispel, continuing the language of the Crusades, with both civilizations not seeing that they mirror each other.  Indeed, at a deeper level, we need to move to a new level of identity. As  Phil Graham of the University of Queensland writes: “We are the Other. We have become alienated from our common humanity, and  the attribute, hope, image, that might save us – is  the “globalisation” of  humanity.”[4] 

However, Bush giving increased legitimacy to Ariel Sharon once again strikes most of the world as hypocritical. While Arafat has already lost any legitimacy he may have had as a leader of the Palestinian people, at least he is not under likely indictment for war crimes committed in Lebanon. For Bush to cozy up to one war criminal and attempt to eliminate others (Mullah Oman and Bin Laden) worsens an already terrible situation. 

MACROHISTORY 

From a macrohistorical and structural perspective, the USA is a capitalist nation with military might buttressing it. Osama Bin Laden and others are capitalists with military strength. Both are globalized, both see the world in terms of us/them, both use ideas for their position (extremists drawing on Islam; American intellectuals using linear development theory). Both are strong male. The USA builds twin towers, evoking male dominating architecture (as argued by Ivana Milojevic and Philip Daffara, of the University of the Sunshine Coast[5]) and the terrorists use the same phallic symbol – the airplane – to bring it down. Boys with toys with terrifying results for us all.  And with over 50% of Americans believing that Arab Americans should have special identity cards and the now defunct Taliban having legislated that hindus where special insignia on their clothes, these chilling similarities return us back to Europe sixty years ago. 

In the terms of spiral dynamics, as developed by Beck and others[6], these are both red forces (passion) fighting each other. The world is desperate for a Blue force, a higher order legal framework, to resolve the violence.  What has occurred however is the elimination of one red force by a combined effort of two other red forces, American and Northern Alliance. While the terrifying actions of the Taliban are paraded in propaganda machines throughout the world – the CNN lie machine – little mention of the Northern Alliance brutalities are trumpeted. Fortunately, there is more to this world than state power, and thus Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have focused on all the parties (but none yet on USA bombing mistakes – such as those costing the hands of Afghani children. Food packets being the same color as cluster bombs can be seen as unfortunate or as paradigmatic. While seeking indictments against US military personnel is going too far, Afghani victims of the war should have the right to legal redress, especially financial compensation. There can be no negotiation on this. Indeed, it is this fear of indictments that keeps the US away from a world court. 

Still at least at the official level, American and Western leaders have called for tolerance, for openness, for respecting Islam and muslims, for seeking terrorists, ie criminals, and not other categories. [7] Indeed, there have been legal cases against USA airlines for not allowing those of south asian and middle eastern ethnicity to board on planes.  This type of legal recourse was certainly not available to Abdul Haq, murdered by the Taliban  in late October.  Not surprisingly,  Osama Bin Laden  called  for a struggle against America and Jews (and now the United Nations), resorting to tired racist and hateful rhetoric, which in the long run will  bring little solace to those suffering – essentially the language and madness of conspiracy theory. Moreover, after the struggle against America and the Jews, who then will it be, the shias (which are already targeted by many Taliban supporters)? And then? Once the politics of exclusion begins, only ever increasing dogmatic futures can result.  Interestingly, far right wing hate groups in the USA have endorsed Osama Bin Laden’s action, arguing that the Federal Government and the world Jewish conspiracy is the problem (and as would be typical in male discourse, saying that while they agree with politics and tactics they would not desire them to marry their daughters and visa versa). 

However, Osama Bin Laden’s demand for rights for Palestinians must be heard. Like a child who is not heard, the shouting gets even louder. Or a body that is sick, getting sicker and sicker, calling attention  to the disease, and even killing the host (meaning the planet itself), unless there is some foundational and transformative change. While the USA and others prefer the chemotherapy and radiation approach to health (thus bombing appears natural, ie the USA exists in epistemological reductionism)  if we are interested in the long term, then perhaps the naturopathic  homeopathic or chiropractic might work much better. Can there be a truth and reconciliation commission?   The shouting is also getting louder as muslims are undergoing a religious renaissance, argues Riaz Hussan of Flinders University, Australia.[8] As they move toward increased religiosity, there is far less interest in extremist political positions, in those who live in the conspiracy discourse. Thus, Osama Bin Laden and other extremists find their pathways cut off, both from within the Islamic world and as well from the globalized multicultural world. Attacking old symbols of imperialism becomes the only way for them to survive. Creating new futures, new economics, new cultural texts, however, is the real challenge. 

What is especially challenging to the USA is that the demands from many muslims, including extremists, is not for money or territory but for the West (and nations claiming to be muslim) to change, to become less materialistic, more understanding of the plight of the poor, and more religious – and to return to their pre-Columbus borders. And, American public opinion appears to share this, with a majority calling for a return to a moral core, away from crass materialism (but not yet from jingoist war).  As Kevin Kelly has written, communism collapsed because the West offered something better. For extremism of the Islamic variety to collapse, more than McDonalds will have to be available.[9] 

The demands of the  West on Islamic nations generally has been the opposite: to become more materialistic, more growth-oriented in terms of the formal economy (but not more people) and more sensate, scientific – to develop.  From a macrohistorical perspective, each distorts what it means to be human by focusing on one dimension, and in extreme forms.  From an individual view, we can see how  those in the periphery develop a love-hate relationship with the center. The terrorists drinking, gambling, cavorting in strip clubs before the 11th of September shows how they  internalized what they struggled against. It also shows how Islam for them was strategic, a text that could be used to justify their own pathological worldview.  

In the long run, the events of September may be viewed as an isolated attack of terrorism, or they may be seen as: (1) events that clearly define who is the world’s hegemon ending the competing (Europe, East Asian, China) nation’s theory – Americanism, for now, and forever; (2) as a renewal of the Islamic world, with extremists, literalists, declining in popularity, and a new vision of Islamic modernity emerging, leading to the beginnings of a global ecumene; (3) a challenge by the poor to the world capitalist system, in effect, continuing the pattern of the decline of Communism, decline of grand religions and the collapse of capitalism. In the sense, as the system collapses, the question only future historians know is: what new forms of power will reign? What will emerge from the chaos?  A world state? 

The second part the equation is a shared responsibility, within the Islamic world especially, but essentially a dialogue of civilizations.  This means opening the gates of ijithad (independent reasoning and a capacity to adapt to change) instead of blind imitation.  And here, the crucial language is a dialogue within religions, between the hard and soft side. Certainly the Taliban argument that Muslims have a duty to fight with them in case of an attack on Afghanistan did not help matters.  The Taliban spent the last decade fighting against Muslims with USA indirect support (creating what is now know as the Afghan Arabs) –  why would anyone desire to support such a state? It is the failure of the modernist statist paradigm and support of tyrannical states by the West that pushes groups in this extreme direction.  Unfortunately, leadership in the Islamic world that can give legitimacy to the softer side has been silenced. As long as these leaders do not stand up and challenge dictatorships, they will indirectly participate in the creation of endless Osama Bin Laden’s. Anwar Ibrahim is the most potent symbol of a global muslim leader who seeks a dialogue within Islam and between Islam and the rest of the world in language and on terms of dignity and global ethics. Unfortunately, he remains falsely imprisoned in Malaysia and is symptomatic of the crisis in the Third World. 

While the hard side has clearly defined the future – every bomb dropped, every moment of bio-terror –  reduces the possibilities, this need not be the case.  There are alternatives.   The hard side (not the US military), to some extent, has become de-legitimized.  For example, even the right wing in the USA cringed when Pat Robertson blamed the terror attacks on God ceasing to provide protection to America because of the rise of  feminism, etc..  And Muslims everywhere, are hopefully, beginning to see that more terror will not work and is morally wrong. The Islamic leaders meeting in Qatar was a step forward. The message must be: the injustices are real but non-violent global civil disobedience (against companies, nations around the world, leaders)  is a far more potent method for long-term transformation. In Pakistan, the elimination of the extreme right wing has given hope the middle-class. The carrot of US$ has allowed Pakistan to move away from the rightist politics of General Zia. 

Unfortunately, the hypocrisy in the West does not help matters, and increases daily. Until the USA shuts down its own terror training camps, as for example, the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Co-operation (Whisc), change is likely to be incremental if at all. Whisc was called the School of Americas and argues George Monblot has trained more than 60,000 Latin American soldiers and policemen,” largely involved in death squads against their own people. For example, in Chile its graduates ran Pinochet’s secret police and his three main concentration camps and Human Rights Watch revealed that former pupils … had commissioned kidnappings, disappearances and massacres.”[10]Asks Monblot, provocatively,  should there be bombings of Georgia? Of course not, still double standards do not lead well to civilizational dialogue or world systems transformation. But others nations perhaps should lead the USA by example, showing that hypocrisy does not need to be how the game is played. 

The third part  of the equation really is what the social movements can and must continue, challenging the asymmetrical nature of the world system – the structural violence, the silent emergencies –  and pushing for a new globalization (of ideas, cultures, labor and capital, while protecting local systems that are not racist/sexist/predatory on the weak).  The social movements can through their practice and image of the future, show, and create a global civil society, challenging the twin towers of capital and military.  Real transformation, as in the changes in Eastern Europe, was  pushed through partly through the people’s movements. This process of creating a post-globalization world must continue.  

Resolving the equation of terror then must be both very specific and short term – crimes against humanity  cannot be tolerated – and must transform perceived injustices, the isms, and the structure of the world system, the long term civilizational perspective.  New Internationalist reminds us that on September 11, 2001, 24,000 people died of hunger, 6000 or so children were killed of diarrhea and 2700 or so children died from measles. [11] 

Of course, there are as well bio-psychological hormonal factors (testosterone and chakra imbalance)[12] that may account for the terrorist actions, but they do not always lead to such massive horrendous actions unless there is a historical and structural context.  Thus, terrorist as sociopath is an understandable description but there are deeper levels of analysis. 

SCENARIOS 

What then of the future? What are the likely trajectories? Here are four scenarios for the near and long-term future. These are written – a first draft was written september 20 – to map the future, to understand what is likely ahead, as well to create spaces for transformation.

(1) Back to Normal. After successful surgical strikes against Bin Laden and others, the USA returns to some normalcy. While trauma associated with air travel remains, these are seen as costs associated with a modern lifestyle, ie just as with cancer, heart disease and car accidents. The West continues to ascend, focused on economic renewal through artificial intelligence and emergent bio-technologies. More money, of course, goes to the military and intelligence agencies. The Right reigns throughout the World. Conflicts remain local and silent.  Over time, the world economy prospers once again and poorer nations move up the ranks just as the Pacific Rim nations have. Already the crusader look was presented at Jean-Charles de Castelbajac’s design collection and is considered likely to take off.[13] La vie est Belle (but just don’t look like you are from south asia or the middle east or have an Arabic name). 

(2) Fortress USA/OECD. Australia, for example, is already moving in that direction,  with basically a prison lock down ahead, especially to newcomers (who desire to enter the Fantasy island of the Virtual West escaping sanctions and feudal systems) and those who look different.  In the USA this is emerging through tighter visa restrictions and surveillance on foreigners, as well as, citizens. The carrot is of course usa citizenship being offered to informants from troubled spots. Of course, once they gain citizenship, they can spent a life time under surveillance. 

However, the costs for the elites will be very high given globalized world capitalism, and with aging as one the major long term issues for OECD. The Fortress scenario will lead to general impoverishment and the loss of the immigration innovation factor.  In the short run, it will give the appearance of security, but in the longer run, poverty will result, not to mention sham democracies with real power with the right wing aligned with the military/police complex.  Increasing airport security is a must but without root issues being resolved, terror will find other vehicles of expression. After all, fortresses are remembered, in history, for being overrun, not for successful defense against “others.” 

The response from the Islamic world will be a Fortress Islam, closing civilizational doors, becoming even more feudal and mullahist/wahbist, and forcing individuals to choose: are you with us or against us, denying the multiplicity of selves that we are becoming. The economy – oil – will remain linked but other associations will continue to drift away. 

(3) Cowboy War – vengeance forever (with soft and hard fascism emerging). Bush has already evoked the Wild West, and the Wanted – Dead or Alive image, indeed, even calling for a “crusade” against the terrorists. We have seen what that leads to all over the world, and the consequences are too clear for most of us. Endless escalation in war that will look like the USA has won but overtime will only speed up the process of  decline. They will remember the latest round, and the counter-response will be far more terrifying, with new sorts of weapons. In any case, with the USA military, especially the marines  rapidly increasing its percent of its members who are muslim (through conversion and demographic growth rates)[14], cowboy war will start to eat at the inner center. And once state terror begins, (or shall we say continues) there is no end in sight. Bush has already stated the assassination clause does not apply to Bin Laden and others since the USA is acting in self-defense. Cowboy war, again, will work in the short run. Crowds will chant USA, USA, until the next hit. The CIA can get back to business (already 1 billion has been appropriated and Bush has asked Congress to increase the Pentagon budget by 50 billion usa $), and continue to make enemies everywhere. Most likely, this will globally lead to an endless global “Vietnam”, well, in fact, an endless Afghanistan.[15]     

However, there are signs that Bush and others are listening to a tiny portion of their softer side and seeking to focus on the action of terror and not on Islam or any other wider category.[16]  They could use the sympathy from the rest of the world to “eliminate” terrorism (just as piracy in the high-seas was ended earlier) and, hopefully, in the longer run, seek solidarity with all victims of violence. The trauma from the bombing could lead Americans to genuinely understand the traumas other face in their day to day existence, to a shared transcendence, or it could lead to creating even more traumas. We can hope he – and all of us – keeps on listening and learning,  and with the war in Afghanistan over, the soft future may be possible. But if health in Afghanistan and the Islamic world is not resorted, there will be more trauma on the way. For All.  

Thus in this future, there will be no real change to the world system. Once all the   terrorists are caught –  well actually the perpetrators are already dead –  no changes in international politics or international capital will occur,  OECD states simply become stronger, while individuals become more fearful and anxiety prone.  A depression of multiple varieties is likely to occur (economic and psychological).  The depression will likely lead to anti-globalization revolts throughout the world, either leading to states to  bunker themselves in for the long run, or possibly – transform. Most likely, we will see a slow but inevitable movement toward global fascism – the soft hegemony of the carnivore culture (and anti-ecological in terms of land use) of McDonalds’s with the hard side of Stealth bombers.  The West will become a high-tech fortress, using surveillance technology to watch its citizens. Dissent is only allowable in peace times, and since the war against terrorism is for ever, submit or leave! 

However, “Fortress” in the long run may be difficult, as the globalization forces have already been unleashed and the anti-thesis in a variety of forms has emerged (the socialist revolt, decolonization movements, and even, terrorism). “Cowboy war” will likely only exacerbate the deep cleavages in the World Economy (that the richest 350 or so own the same as nearly 3 billion individuals). Indeed, a case can be made that this was Bin Laden preferred scenario. Bush attacks lead to destabilization in the Arab world, with the possibility of a nuclear accident and leading to extremists in Islamic nations rising up against modernists. 

Over time in this scenario, there may be a transition in who plays the central role in the world system, and is among the reasons the attacks have led to global anxiety – world system shifts are not pretty events or processes.  The periphery tends to see its future through the lenses of the Center; if the Center can be bombed, what future is there for the impoverished periphery? 

The deep divide cannot be resolved, however, merely by the “hearts and minds” strategy for this involves making traditionalists modernist, ie from loving land and God to loving money and scientific rationality. Rather, it involves moving from tradition to a transmodernity, which is inclusive of multiple but layered realities (the vertical gaze of ethics), moving toward an integrated planetary system (loving the  planet and moving away from exclusivist identities but transcending historical traumas). But can this transition occur? Can there be a Gaian polity? This is the fourth scenario. 

(4) Gaian Bifurcation. A Gaia of civilizations (each civilization being incomplete in itself and needing the other) plus a system of international justice focused not only on direct injustices but structural and cultural.  This would not only focus on Israel/Palestine (internationalizing the conflict with peace keepers and creating a shared Jerusalem)  as well as ending the endless sanctions in Iraq, but highlighting injustices by third world governments toward their own people (and the list here is endless, Burma,  Malaysia’s Mahathir, India/Pakistan/Kashmir). The first phase would be  far more legalistic, developing a world rule of law system with the context would be a new equity based multicultural globalization. This aspect would have an hard edge, developing a global police force and a military force. The second phase would be values driven, moving from military to peace keeping to anticipatory conflict resolution. In this phase, this future, the  USA would move to authentically understanding the periphery, seeking to become smaller, globally democratic. This means transforming the world system, focusing on a post-globalization vision of the future, and moving to world governance. Specifically, this means: [17] 

·      human and animal rights;

·      indexing of wealth of poor and rich on a global level, that is, economic democracy – employee ownership;

·      prama[18]based- creating a dynamic balance, between regions, rural/city, seeing  the world economy through the ecological metaphor but with technological innovation;

·      self-reliance, ecological, electronically linked communities (becoming more important than states);

·      gender partnership;

·      and a transformed United Nations, with increased direct democracy, influence of the social movements and transparency within multinational corporations. 

It means moving away from the modernist self and the traditional self, and creating a transmodern self (spiritual, integrating multiplicities and future-generations oriented). 

In terms of epistemology, this means moving from the strategic discourse, which has defined us for hundreds of years, to the emergent healing discourse (within, toward others, toward the planet, and for future generations).   Healing means seeing the earth as an evolving body. What is the best way to heal then, through enhancing the immune system, listening to the body, or through massive injection of drugs? 

In workshops  run around the world, Islamic, Western and East Asian nations, for example, this alternative future emerges as a desired future. Muslim leaders in a March 1996 seminar in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on the Ummah in 2025  desired a future that was based on: 

·      gender cooperation

·      a cooperative economic system (and not capitalism)

·      self-reliance ecological electronically linked communities (glo-cal), and, a

·      a world governance system 

This perspective appears to be generally shared by  the cultural creatives, an emerging demographic category in the West (www.culturalcreatives.org) In the Non-West as well there is a desire to move away from feudal structures but retain spiritual heritage, to be “modern” but in a different way.

DIRECTION 

To move toward this direction, ultimately means far more of a Mandela approach, what Johan Galtung is doing via the transcend (www.transcend.org) network, than the traditional short term Americanist approach. 

Indeed, 9/11 must be seen in a layered way. How it is constructed defines the solution. If we use the piracy discourse, then  a global police force must be developed to combat terrorism. If, however, it is a natural consequence of globalization, of a shadow NGO attacking a world hegemon, then the focus should be on the pathologies of globalization. If  this is essentially about injustice, about deeper worldviews being extinguished by modernity, then structural transformation and conversations with the other are far more important.. Depth peace is needed. While there may need to be short term actions against criminals, rehabilitation requires changes of culture and of economic opportunities, ie dismantling of the interstate system which allows capital to travel but not labour, and certainly restricts ideas from the periphery to travel and circulate freely. 

In this sense, the fourth scenario is about the long term and about depth. This fourth scenario is a vision of a global civil/spiritual society. It stands in strong opposition to the declared nation-statist position and the extremist groups all over the world. It challenges the strategic modernist worldview as well as the short termism of most governments. 

The first scenario continues the present; the second is a return to the imagined past; the third the likely future; and the fourth, the aspirational .  This means moving beyond both the capitalist West and the feudalized, ossified non-West (and modernized fragmented versions of it) and toward an Integrated Planetary Civilization. 

On a personal note, in utopian moments, I can see this civilization desperately trying to emerge at rational and post-rational levels,  and there are huge stumbling blocks – perceived injustices, the isms,  the asymmetrical world order, and national leaders unwilling to give up their “god-given” right to define identity and allegiance. 

Do we have the courage to create this emergent future? As we move into 2002, the aspirational future moves further and further away – the window of opening for cultural dialogue, for understanding deeper issues, has all but closed. But it will open again. Let us hope that opening does not come in the same fashion as 9/11 did. And I hope we will learn from all the mistakes committed this time.


[1] Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan; Sunshine Coast University, Maroochydore; and Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane.  Co-editor, Journal of Futures Studies (www.ed.tku.edu.tw/develop/jfs), Associate Editor, New Renaissance (www.ru.org). s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au, www.metafuture.org. Inayatullah was born in Pakistan and raised in Indiana, New York, Geneva, Islamabad, Kuala Lumpur, and Honolulu. 

[2] Around 500-700 Pakistanis are presumed to be missing, as based on data from SBS Television Australia and Pakistan’s The News. It is not only Americans that is being attacked by certainly Muslims (possibly around 900 or so in the WTC and  some in the Pentagon, perhaps, not to mention attacks of terror toward Muslims in the last 15 years from all sources) as well. As of September 23, the figure is 200 pakistanis. http://www.pak.gov.pk/public/transcript_of_the_press_conferen.htm. By February 2002, this figure has been revised downwardly to 3000. The number of non-Americans killed is unknown.
[3] As Tony Judge and others have argued, www.uia.org)
[4] Personal comments. September 18, 2001.
[5] Personal comments. September 16, 2001.

[6] Jo Voros of Swinburne University offers these thoughts (email, October 8, 2001):What’s really going on (in Spiral language) is that purposeful-authoritation higher-order-seeking BLUE is activating its fundamentalist side and is becoming entrenched on both sides of the conflict. And each side of the conflict is basically talking about God being on *their* side (the classic  Higher Authority invocation) therefore, the “others” are unjust, unrighteous and deserve to be damned forever. BLUE needs a clear-cut right and wrong; by default “we” are right and “they” are wrong, which is the dynamic now playing out on either side.

Therefore, we have the US talking about “bringing to justice” (punitive arm of BLUE) those responsible for WTC attacks. The US talk of a “crusade” is a RED-BLUE effect; unrestrained RED asserts power and domination, often with violence, and when aligned with the “righteousness” provided by the higher authority, this violence is assumed to be righteous, resulting in violence glorified, allowed and exalted in the name of the Higher Authority. This is the same dynamic as on the West Bank between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Once you strip out the context-specific content, the same dynamical process is easily seen. On the facing side, the fundamentalist Taliban are saying the same sort of stuff — that it is the US who are terrorists and criminals, and thus unrighteous, etc — and invoking “jihad” — the semantic equivalent of “crusade”. The RED is starting to flow, both figuratively as a Spiral Dynamics vmeme, and as the blood of the now dying in vain. *sigh*

So, what we really need in this conflict is a super-ordinate Even Higher Authority to provide “good” authority (as opposed to the excessive fundamentalist form present on both sides) and bring the two sides to heel. Unfortunately, this is not present on Planet Earth. Each side claims sanction and legitimation from the Ultimate Higher Authority (God), so any non-God authority is, by definition, beneath this level.

[7] Of course, one friend of mine, commented that if he did know me, because of my name and facial features, he would have problems flying on the same plane as me. Another commented: “They are everywhere” (meaning arabs/south asians/muslims).
[8] See Hasan’s Faithlines: Muslim Conceptions of Islam and Society. Oxford University Press (forthcoming).
[9] Kevin Kelly, “The New Communism,” The Futurist (January-February, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2002), 22. Writes Kelly: “I think we need to enlarge Western civilization so that we have something young Islamic believers want. Providing it will be the only way, and the only honest way, to triumphh.” (22)
[10] George Monblot, “Looking for a terror school to bomb? Try Georgia, USA. Sydney Morning Herald (November 1, 2001), 12.
[11] New Internationalist 340, November 2001, 18-19.
[12] In the Indian health system, there are seven chakras. When the chakras are imbalanced, then negative emotions and behaviors can result. Yoga, meditation and diet are ways to balance the bodies hormonal system.
[13] Sally Jackson, “Star-spangled fervour in style,” The Australian (October 31, 2001), 15.

[14] Ayeda Husain Naqvi writes in “The Rise of the Muslim Marine” (NewsLine, July 1996, 75-77) that while hate crimes against Muslims rise all over the world, surprising the US military is one of the safest places to be a Muslim. Indeed, Qasem Ali Uda forecasts that in 20 years, 25% of all US marines will be Muslim. Given the incredible influence that that former military personnel have on US policies (ie a look at Who’s Who in America shows that military background and law school education are the two common denominators on the resumes of America’s most influential people), inclusion is the wisest policy.

[15] I am indebted to Mike Marien, of the World Future Society for this insight.
[16] As the conflict matures, Colin Powell and others have understood that surgical strikes as well as seeing the other in far less essentialized terms (the many Islams, the many Afghanistans) is crucial for strategy and success. Bush entering a mosque, without shoes, and publicly stating that this is a war against terrorists and not Muslims are all excellent steps forward. In addition, protection of minorities in the USA against direct violence is as well to be lauded. Even his willingness to change the title of the American Infinite Justice operation to Enduring Freedom confirms that he is getting some good advise, or rapidly growing up.  However, if total lack of capacity to understand the role of honor in Pushtun culture once again shows that Americanism can be dangerous for the world, in that complexity, other ways of knowings are not only not misunderstood but not seen as relevant at all. An approach that understoon Pushtun culture would search for honorable ways for them to withdraw from this conflict.
[17] See, Sohail Inayatullah, Understanding Sarkar: The Indian Episteme, Macrohistory and Transformative Knowledge. Leiden, Brill, 2002.
[18] Prama means inner and outer balance.  For more on this, see, Sohail Inayatullah, Sitatuing Sarkar. Maleny, Gurukul Publications, 1999.

Trends Transforming the Futures of the University (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

This article is based on speeches presented to the Professoriate at Tamkang University, Taiwan and at the 4TH Pacific Rim First Year in Higher Education Conference, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia, 6 July 2000

 

Trends of changing student expectations (access to global systems of knowledge, including transparency and international accreditation), the internet (virtual education, moving from campus center to person centered, and far more customized, individually tailored), global corporatization (reduced state funding for universities and the development of a market culture on campuses) and transformed content (multicultural education) will dramatically influence all the world’s universities. In the next ten years there will be windows of opportunities to transform and be ahead of the curve. However, after that the window will close and there will be clear winners and losers. Indeed the potential for dramatic transformation is so great that in 10 years, it is far from certain that universities as currently constituted – campus based, nation-funded, and local student-oriented – will exist.

Corporatization

Corporatization will create far more competition than traditional universities have been prepared for. Corporatization is the entrance of huge multinational players into the educational market. All understand that education is the big growth area. Total spending in education in America was 800$ billion US, estimates The Economist. By 2003, the private capital invested in the US will total 10 billion dollars, just for the virtual higher education market and 11 billion dollars in the private sector serving the corporate market. Indeed, John Chambers, CEO of Cisco systems, calls “online education the killer application of the internet.” Jeanne Meister, president of Corporate University Xchange(CUX), expects that by 2010 there will be more corporate universities in the United States than traditional ones. They are and will continue to challenge the academy’s monopolization of accreditation. These corporations have a huge capitalization base and with globalization they have the legitimacy to cross national boundaries and with the internet the vehicle to do so. Pearson, for example, a large British media group that owns 50% of the Economist, is betting its future on it, hoping that it can provide the online material for the annual two million people that will be seeking a degree online.

The money is in education. Generally as academics we are not used to this type of language. For us, it has been about scholarship, the pursuit of truth, about science. I know at one meeting, when a colleague asked about the level of scholarship in one program, the Dean said they had no money for scholarships. He had already forgotten what the university was about as he was always under so much financial pressure.

Now if someone down to the street, some vendor who sells bread wants to take over the university, there is no threat. But when billion dollar corporations want to enter the market – a rapidly growing market, especially with the aging of the population and with national barriers to education slowly breaking down – the challenge to the traditional university becomes dramatic. With an expanding market of hundreds of millions of learners, money will follow future money. Money will transform education.

This corporatization of the university – Academic Capitalism – differs quite dramatically from the classical university, which was concerned about moral education. Moreover, as in Bologna in the 10th century, it was student-run. If the professor was late, he was fined by students, some teachers were even forced to leave the city.

University Dimensions

The point is that at one time the university was student-run, we know that it is no longer so, if anything it is administration-run. Who will run it in the future? To understand this we need to explore the different dimensions of the University. The University is partly about social control, and it is also about baby-sitting. What to do with teenagers? How to keep them out of trouble? The other dimension is national development. We have schools to convince everyone that we’re a good people, that we have the best system. Each nation engages in social control, it uses education to give legitimacy to the nation-state, to make good patriots. We also have university for job training, the entire practical education moment. – the small community colleges, where the goal is to go to a small college to get practical education so that one can get a real job after graduation.

Thus the classical (Confucian and Greek) view of knowledge for the cultivation of the mind has been supplanted by the industrial model. And, as you might expect the big growth in jobs in the university are in the area of the bureaucracy. Whereas tenure is being eliminated in favor of part-time employment throughout the world, the university administration just keeps on expanding.

Now I know some of you are happy, the administrators, as you believe these positions are justified since reporting, accounting requirements keep on increasing, student numbers keep on going up, so of course, there should be more administrators.

But if you are not an administrator and are a faculty member you are wondering where is the money going to?. I know students everywhere are asking that. In one meeting we had on globalization and the university, one professor commented that the “the most important thing in globalization is reducing labor costs.” Someone else asked: and where are the biggest labor costs? The biggest labor cost is in the administration. If you really want a globalized university, first cut the deans. Of course, this is the most difficult position to cut since deans generally decide which positions go and which stay. Faculty planning seminars are essentially about implementing university plans, and not about creating new visions of education.

But the key question will be: what can be automated? Who can be replaced by the internet and web education? Perhaps both – faculty and the administration – will be in trouble. This is the debate: too many administrators or too many professors. A third perspective is – a market perspective – not enough students and thus each university believes it must globalize and have students from all over the world attend their physical campus as well as take courses from their virtual campuses. However, generally, most universities still think about students in narrow ways. As young people or as students from one’s own nation. But with the ageing population and with the internet (with bandwith likely to keep on increasing), one’s paying students can be from anywhere.

When I think of a student, I think of someone as 50, even 70 years old. The idea of 18 years old student is no longer an accurate representation. The biggest democratic shaft in human history is now occurring. We are moving from the medium age of OECD countries being 20 to 40. It’s dramatic shift.

Now the other classical view of university was academic-led – a shared culture focused on scholarship and science – but that too is been challenged. And of course the .com model even challenges what the university should look like. Should it be physical-based or virtual? Should it be based on a model of hierarchy or a networked model?

But for academics, the biggest challenge is the university as a corporation. And we know in the U.S. that Corporate funding for the University has increased from 850 million in 1985 to 4.25 billion US$ less than a decade later. In the last twenty years it has increased by eight times.

So the big money is coming from the corporation and money from the government is gradually being reduced years as per the dictates of the globalization model. While most presidents of the university would prefer a different model, they have no choice. More and more education is becoming an economic good. Humanity departments are being downsized throughout the world since the contribution to jobs is not direct. Unfortunately, they forget the indirect contribution, that of creating smart, multi-lingual, multi-cultural individuals – what some call social capital.

However, there are some quite insidious affects of corporatization. First, information is no longer open, as corporations use it for profit making. A survey of 210 life-science companies in 1994 found that 58% of those sponsoring academic research required delays of more than six months before publication. The content of science itself changes as the funding increased. In a 1996 study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, 98% of papers based on industry-sponsored research reflected favorably on the drugs being examined as compared with 79% based on research not funded by the industry. Now what accounts for that 19% variation? And how will the public then see the university? As with the medical system, once patients believe that doctors are beholden to certain drug companies or web sites they are less likely to trust them. This holds true for university research as well.

But there is another side to globalization. In 1989 in the U.S. there were 364 new start up companies on the basis of a license to an academic invention. University technology transfer activities generated 34 billion dollars in U.S.$ supporting 280,000 jobs.

So the university is becoming more global and also producing incredible wealth, so there are two sides to globalization.

Virtualization: the .com revolution

The .com revolution as well has mixed reviews. A quick example. Over night, one Australian university administration changed the prefix for academic emails from edu.au to .com. So over night your email changed from being Professor Chen@edu.au to Chen@com. The academics asked why did this occur. While some were upset that this happened without consultation, others were upset that the moral basis of the university was being transformed, they were deeply troubled by corporatization. The administration responded that we can no longer compete globally as an @.edu.au institution and instead had to become a .com. Eventually the university went back to edu.au as the pressure from academics was too great.

But the university administration could see the writing on the wall. The traditional model of the classical liberal arts national subsidized university was ending – a new model was emerging. The mistake they made was not engaging in dialogue with others, not living the .com network model but instead using the power-based secrecy model of the industrial era.

The other problem that administrations have not yet begun to see is that much of middle-management can and is likely to be eliminated. The emerging knowedge economy – via the net and future artificial intelligence systems – will lead to dis-intermediation. With a good information system, you don’t need all the secretaries, the clerks, as well as those higher up the ladder. Of course, the politics of job firing, retraining, is a different matter and central to how the future university and overall world economy is to be organized in the future.

Now the other impact of the .com revolution is that it creates the portable revolution. With colleagues, we produced a cdrom on Futures Studies which in effect is a portable university. One can get an MA through the cdrom, it has courses on it, stories of all the authors and it opens up to the web serving as a knowledge navigator for the field of futures studies. So when people ask me where I teach, I say, I just carry my university with me. Through the cdrom, you enter a new pedagogical world. You can, for example, e-mail all the authors and editors. Now remember when you were in college and if you wanted to ask questions of a textbook chapter, to e-mail a great scientist, a great social scientist, could you do that? With this type of technology you can ask authors questions of their text, seek further explanations. The text can become communicative instead of merely information.

Of course, one can put all this information on the web as well, however, bandwith while increasing is slow in many universities.

So the nature of what constitutes education is dramatically changing from being text focused to being customer student focused. From being campus focused to being virtual. The university than becomes a process, it is no longer simply a place, with fixed 9-5 work patterns, with fixed schedules for classes. It can become a network.

Multicultural Realities

The model of how think about what is taught – not just how it is taught, and the structure around education – is also changing. And this is the important trend of multiculturalism.

In its tokenistic form, multiculturalism became a government fad of the last decade in postindustrial societies, its most controversial feature being its excesses of ‘political correctness’. In its deeper nature it is

about inclusiveness. At heart, argues Ashis Nandy, multiculturalism is about dissent, about contesting the categories of knowledge that modernity has given us. And, even with multiculturalism often criticized and coopted, used strategically to ensure representation, still the future is likely to me more and more about an ethics of inclusion instead of a politics of exclusion. Of course, the struggle will be long and hard, and more often than not, instead of new curriculum, there will be just more special departments of the Other.

Deep multiculturalism challenges what is taught, how it is taught, the knowledge categories used to teach, and the way departments enclose the other. It provides a worldview in which to create new models of learning and new universities which better capture the many ways students know the world. As futures researcher Paul Wildman reminds us, this can extend to concepts such as multiversities and even ‘subversities’ which encourage participation from scholars and students who dwell at the periphery of

knowledge. In this form, multiculturalism goes beyond merely inclusion of ‘other’ ethnicities, to a questioning of the whole paradigm of western scientific rationalism on which centuries of university traditions are founded. In this perspective, multiple ways of knowing include spiritual or consciousness models of self, in which as James Grant for the Mahrishi University of Mangement and Marcus Bussey of The Ananda Marga Gurukul University assert, the main driver in transforming universities of the next century is an explosion of inner enlightenment, a new age of higher consciousness about to begin.

Multiculturalism ends the view that there is only one science. Western science instead of being seen as a quest for truth is considered to be one way of knowing among many. There are can alternative sciences – feminist science, Tantric science, Islamic science. They are still engaged in empirical and verifiable research but the questions asked, the ethical framework are different. Generally, the type of research is more concerned with indigenous problems, with local concerns. It is less violent to nature, toward “subjects” and more concerned with integrated self and other, mind and body, intellect and intuition.

What’s happening through out universities is that scholars are contesting the content of scholarship – how, for example, history is taught, asking are all civilizations included, or are only Western thinkers, Western notions of discovery and culture honored.

I give a lecture at an Australian university and questioned how they were teaching their main course on World History. I noted that the grand thinkers from Islamic, Sinic and Indian civilizations were not included. Why? And when other civilizations were briefly mentioned they were written as threats to the West or as barbarians. Women and nature as well were absent. I argued that this creates a view of history that is not only inaccurate but violent since other cultures see themselves through these hegemonic eyes. Instead of creating an inclusive history of humanity’s struggle, a history of one particular civilization becomes valorized.

While it is unlikely that the professor who teaches this course will change, students have changed. They want multiple global perspectives. They understand that they need to learn about other cultures from those cultures’ perspectives.

The multicultural challenge to the traditional university can be defined as below:

  • Challenge to western canon
  • Challenge to intellect as the only way of knowing
  • Challenge to divorce of academic from body and spirit – challenge to egghead vision of self/other
  • Challenge to modernist classification of knowledge
  • Challenge to traditional science (feminist, islamic, postnormal, indian)
  • Challenges pedagogy, curriculum as well as evaluation – ie process or culture, content and evaluation or what is counted.

We are already seeing the rise of multiculturalism in OECD nations. For example, at one conference in Boston, when participants were asked to list the five American authors they believed most necessary for a quality education, they placed Toni Morrison second and Maya Angelou third. Others on the top ten, included Maclom X and James Baldwin. The first was Mark Twain.

The multicultural perspective challenges as well the foundation of knowledge. Multicultural education is about creating structures and processes that allow for the expression of the many civilizations, communities and individuals that we are.

Multicultural education contests the value neutrality of current institutions such as the library. For example, merely including texts from other civilizations does not constitute a multi-cultural library. Ensuring that the contents of texts are not ethnocentric is an important step but this does not begin to problematize the definitional categories used in conventional libraries. For example, in the multicultural perspective, we need to ask what a library would look like if it used the knowledge paradigms of other civilizations? How would knowledge be rearranged? What would the library floors look like? In Hawaiian culture, for example, there might be floors for the Gods, for the aina and genealogy. In Tantra, empirical science would exist alongside intuitional science. Floor and shelve space would privilege the superconscious and unconscious layers of reality instead of only focusing on empirical levels of the real. In Islam, since knowledge is considered tawhidic (based on the unity of God), philosophy, science and religion would no longer occupy the discrete spaces they currently do. Of course, the spatiality of “floors” must also be deconstructed. Information systems from other civilizations might not privilege book-knowledge, focusing instead on story-telling and dreamtime as well as wisdom received from elders/ancestors (as in Australian Aboriginal) and perhaps even “angels” (either metaphorically or ontologically).

A multi-cultural library might look like the world wide web but include other alternative ways of knowing and being. Most certainly knowledge from different civilizations in this alternative vision of the “library” would not be relegated to a minor site or constituted as an exotic field of inquiry such as Asian, Ethnic or Feminist studies, as are the practices of current libraries. The homogeneity of the library as an organizing information system must be reconstructed if we are to begin to develop the conceptual framework of multi-cultural education.

Thus, not only is the structure of the University changing, that is, virtualization, but the content as well is being transformed. Now what does this mean? If you want your university to have a bright future, you have to understand the changing nature of the student – changing demographics (older, more females) and changing expectations (more multicultural). Generally, while getting a job will always be important, the equation has changed to planet, profits and people, that is, a strong concern for the environment, for making money and for engaging with others and other cultures.

Democratizing the Feudal Mind

The role of academics is changing as well. This is the generally the hardest notion for senior professors to swallow – the democratization of the university. We want democracy for government, but we don’t want democracy for universities .

The university remains feudal. For example, while the economy in East Asian nations has transformed, that is, feudalism was destroyed, the feudal mind has not changed. This is the grand question for East Asian nations. How to create a culture of innovation, how to go to the next level of economic development, instead of copying, creating. To create an innovative learning organization, you can’t have a culture of fear. This means real democracy in details like what type of seating is in the room. As well as: can students challenge professors? Can junior professors challenge senior academics without fear of reprisal. Innovation comes from questioning.

In British systems, the university structure is as well profoundly feudal. A strong distinction is made between the professor and the lecturer. Indeed, the professor is high on top the pyramid with others way below (and the president of the university residing on the mountain top).

Thus can we democratize the university? Of course, it is difficult to do this. No one likes being challenged. We all have our view of reality, our favorite models, and we believe we are correct. But creating a learning organization means challenging basic structures and finding new ways to create knowledge and wealth. It doesn’t mean always going to the President for solutions. Transforming the feudal university is very difficult.

However, I am not discounting the importance of respect for leadership, for discipline and hardwork – challenging authority doesn’t mean being rude, it means contesting the foundations for how we go about creating a good society.

So far I’ve touched upon four trends: corporatization, virtualization, multiculturalism and democratization as well as basic missions of the University. Given these trends and missions, what are the possibilities for the university, what are the possible structures?

Possible Structures

I see three possible structures. One is being a University leader, joining the world’s elite, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford. The focus then is: “We are only going to get the best bright students around the world.” But the challenge to this model comes from the .com world. The big money is unlikely to be in teaching but in content design. The issue is though once you put your name on cdroms, on internet content, does that diminish your brand name, its exclusivity. If everyone can enter an elite university’s web course, is the university still elite? This is the issue of franchising. Should you focus on a small customer base that can pay a lot or become like the University of Pheonix (the largest university in the USA, offers no tenure, uses short courses as well as flexible delivery. A kind of just-in-time education).

For large universities, there are two clear choices – elite university or low cost producers with hundreds of millions of new students all over the world as potential purchasers. A third choice for the smaller university is the niche university –focused in a particular area of excellence. Not trying to be too much, just focused on one particular area (regional concerns, for example).

The question for the traditional university is new competition from global players: multi-media corporations, elite universities that are expanding and branding as well as low-cost producers.

These issues are already of concern in the USA, and soon they will be crucial here as well. It is harder to see this in East Asian nations (and those colonized by England) since the State plays such a strong role in education. But eventually in five or ten years the competition will come here as well. All universities will find themselves in a global market.

Scenarios for the Future

The next question is what are the probable scenarios for the future of the university. We use scenarios to reduce uncertainty. Scenarios are also important in that they also help us rethink the present – they give us a distance from today.

Earlier futures studies focused entirely on single point prediction. The field then moved to scenario planning, to alternative futures. But now, it is moving to capacity development, with creating learning organizations where foresight is a continuous part of what the organization does.

Studies that examine corporations that have survived over a hundred years found that the one key factor in explaining longevity was the capacity to tolerate ideas from the margin. For universities this is crucial – the capacity to tolerate dissent, indeed, to nurture different ideas, new ideas from the edge.

In terms of scenarios, the first one is the Star Alliance model. I use this term from the airlines – where the passenger is always taken care of – there is easy movement from one airline to the other. Everything is smooth. For the university, this would mean easy movement of student credits, faculty and programs. A student could take one semester at Stanford, and a second semester in Tamkang, and a third semester at Singapore National University. Professors could also change every semester. So it means a similar web of movement, that’s one big possibility. Star alliance works because customers are happy. The airlines are happy because they get brand loyalty. The student might say “I know if I join this university, my credits are transferable. I could access the best professor, I could access the best knowledge in the world.

The second scenario is what I call, Virtual Touch. This vision of the future of the university combines the best of face-to-face pedagogy (human warmth, mentoring) with virtual pedagogy (instant, anywhere in the world, at your own time and speed). If it is just technology then you get bored students, staring at a distant professor. But if it is just face-to-face you don’t get enough information. The universities who can combine both will do very well.   Ultimately that will mean wearable wireless computers. We already know that in Japan they use the wireless phone to dial up a website and find the out the latest movie, or weather or stock quote.

In 10 years, it is going to be the wearable computer, so we’re going to have a computer with us all the time. I can find out everything, I can find out the minerals in water for example, testing to see if it is clean or not. And that technology is almost developed now. I can find out where was my microphone was made. Was it made in China, in Taiwan, in the U.K. I just dial up and I can get product information. And this information will be linked to my values, what type of world I want to see. Thus, I’ll purchase products that are environmentally friendly, where the corporation treats women well. And students will see university courses in the same way: is it well taught, what is the professor like, how much democracy is in the class, what are the values of the University?

The third scenario is: A university without all walls. It’s means the entire world becomes a university . As Majid Tehranian writes: “If all goes well, the entire human society will become a university without walls and national boundaries.” We don’t need specific universities anymore since the university is everywhere, a true knowledge economy wherein humans constantly learn and use their knowledge to create processes that create a better fairer, richer, happier world.

The Future of the Profession

Let me now return to the future of the academic. What is our role in this dramatically changing world. The first possibility is the traditional professor – this is the agent of authority, great in one field but knowing very little about other fields. They may know Physics but not complexity theory. They are useful in that they are brilliant in one area but not so useful since they have a hard time adapting to change.

The second role is the professor as web content designer. While the current age-cohort is unlikely to engage in these activities, younger people will. Even my six year old wants to be a cdrom designer when he grows up. Other young people as well see knowledge as quite different than we do. They see knowledge as quick, as interactive, as multi-disciplinary and as always changing. They want to be web designers and information designers. So the old role of academics was to write books, the new role is that of creating new types of interactive content. And the content will likely be far more global, multicultural than we have so far seen. It appears to be an entirely different world being created.

That also means, if you’re the web designer, you’re student becomes key. This means using action learning methods. Action learning means that the content of the course is developed with the student. While the professor may have certain authoritative knowledge, his or her role is more of a mentor, the knowledge navigator to help the student develop his or her potential within his or her categories of what is important.

You might say this is impossible in Asian nations and former British colonies. But many years ago we had a one week course in Thailand. The subject was the futures of economic development. The first four days, we had heavy lectures, but on the 5th day, my colleague from Queensland University of Tony Stevenson said to the students “you design the course.” For the first half-hour, the students looked down. But after twenty minutes they started talking and eventually designed the next few days.

My sense is that this is good news for academics. Most of the professors I speak with would prefer less teaching – information passing out – and more communication. The mentoring role is far more rewarding, personal. The old school was the long lecture. The new way of thinking is just tell the student to go the web and find out. Afterwards there can be a discussion. The Professor then has to learn how to listen to students’ needs and not just to lecture to them.

What is unique about our era is that we now have the technology to do this. Do we have the political will, the wisdom?

Dissenting Futures

Let me close this speech with the issue of dissent. What makes the role of the academic unique is that he or she can challenge authority. When the system becomes too capitalistic, this can be questioned. If it is too religious, this too can be countered. All the excesses of the system can be challenged. And who can do this? Those who work for the government can’t since they fear losing their jobs. Those belonging in the church, temple or mosque can’t since they are ideologically bound. And this is the problem with globalization, by making efficiency the only criteria, moral space is lost. As academics we should never, I believe, lose sight of our responsibility to create new futures, to inspire students, to ask what-if questions, to think the unthinkable, to go outside current parameters of knowledge. This is our responsibility to current and future generations.

 

Selected References

Eyal Press and Jennifer Washburn, The Kept University in The Atlantic Monthly (March 2000), 39-54.

Glazer, Nathan. We are all Multiculturalists Now. Harvard, Harvard University Press, 1997.

Inayatullah, Sohail and Jennifer Gidley, eds. The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives on the Futures of the University. Westport, Ct., Bergin and Garvey, 2000.

Inayatullah, S. “The Multicultural Challenge to the Future of Knowledge.” Periodica Islamica, 1996, 6(1), 35–40.

Staff, “Online Education: Lessons of a virtual timetable,” The Economist (February 17, 2001), 71-75.

Tehranian, M. “The End of the University.” Information Society, 1996, 12(4), 444–446.

Wildman, P. “From the Monophonic University to Polyphonic Multiversities.” Futures, 1998, 30(7), 625–635.

Wiseman, L. “The University President: Academic Leadership in an Era of Fund Raising and Legislative Affairs.” In R. Sims and S. Sims (eds.), Managing Institutions of Higher Education into the Twenty-First Century. Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1991.

 

Websites

www.gurkul.edu

www.ru.org

Hard to Plan for a Brave New World (2000)

(Australian Financial Review, 22 February 2000).

SOHAIL INAYATULLAH

 

FINANCIAL PLANNING

How can we plan financially when the impact of technology and an ageing population promise to transform our lives, asks Sohail Inayatullah.

Even amid the “future shock” of the past 50 years, the future has been stable. It has been defined by continued economic growth a suburban home, escape from manual work, a better life for one’s children, and a nuclear family.

There are also traditional notions of the course of one’s life (birth, student, work and retirement near the ocean or golf course) and working patterns (five days a week, nine to five).

Financial planning for long-term security is an easy task when the future is similar to the past. In such a climate, things work out irrespective of when one invests in the share markets, as long as one keeps on investing.

Of course, say the planners, investing should be balanced, and the sooner you start, the better. But in the year 2000, can we confidently assert there will be a continuation of the trend of rising markets, of the move from industrial to post-industrial, of increasing wealth for the top- and for the middle-class in western nations?

Going back a generation, researchers in a 10-nation survey asked 9,000 people 200 questions focused on this year. They were asked to predict the future (Images of the World in the Year 2000, edited by Johan Galtung and Robert Jungk).

What they saw was the dark side of the “continued growth” future. Says Galtung: “More sexual freedom, less attachment to families, more divorce, more mental illness, more narcotics and more criminality, a future of highly materialistic, egocentric individuals striving for personal pleasure and benefit.”

What people saw was a gap between the image of the future an endless array of new technologies leading to progress and the reality of their own, increasingly meaningless lives. They saw the

postmodern future and, for Australians the reality is borne out in our youth suicide rates.

It is this social vacuum that has historically characterised a time between eras, but what will the new era we have entered look like? Can we plan for such an era?

In visioning workshops conducted by this author in Taiwan, New Zealand, Thailand, Germany and Australia, two alternative futures emerged.

The first is the continued growth scenario and the second is an organic, green future. In this “green” future, technology is still central but relationship with nature, God and neighbours is more important than getting a new yacht.

But the future may be dramatically different from either of these forecasts and three growing trends challenge them.

Ageing: First, an ageing population means retirement pensions are difficult to sustain (the ratio of worker to retiree will dip from 3:1 to 1.5:1). Second, who will buy shares when baby-boomers sell for their retirements? Third, whose hard work will drive the economy? Fourth, can we imagine a world with an average age of 40 instead of the historical 20?

Genetics: Discoveries occurring daily may mitigate against the decline in elderly health. Also on the horizon are the creation of synthetic DNA, computers that use DNA instead of chips to store information, cloning, designer babies and the unlinking of sex and reproduction.

Few would object to gene therapy for curing illnesses or preventive gene therapy for foetuses, but there is a fast slide down the slippery slope from genetic prevention to genetic enhancement. Already on Wall Street, the stock prices of genetic companies are starting the quick rise upwards, not yet like .com companies, but the next likely wave.

To assume the genetic future is far away is a huge mistake. With the mapping of human genomes soon to be concluded, next will be social engineering on a massive scale.

Will insurance companies give life and critical illness insurance to those with inappropriate genes? With germ line engineering (the manipulation of genes we pass to our children) the genetic structure of future generations will be modified, eliminating diseases and “undesirable” traits. For more information, try http://research.mednet.ucla.edu/pmts/germline.

Jobs and work: A multitude of job categories are being created that did not exist a few years ago. While genetic counselling will certainly be a boom career, the deeper question is: will there be jobs in the future? Again not a question with a simple answer. There are three scenarios. The first is: 10 per cent work and 90 per cent don’t. The second scenario is: 30 per cent work full time, 40 per cent are in contract work and 30 per cent remain unemployed. The last scenario is full employment the dream of all liberal governments but, with women working and technology eliminating work, the least likely.

The big question remains: can a future about to be transformed by ageing, genetics and the internet be stable and secure? Can it be planned for?

When your financial planner gives you high-growth, medium-growth and slow-growth scenarios for your investments, ask what will happen if the world dramatically changes, transforming assumptions of continued growth, changing how we work, how we age and the very basis of life.

World as City: City as Future (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

Imagining the Multicultural Futures of the City

What will the cities of the future look like? Is there one clear future for the city or are there a range of alternative futures?

First the immediate data and most forecasts point to one overwhelming trend – the urbanization of the planet, Blade Runner writ large. This is a long term historical trend but now reaching to a point where begin to serious imagine Earth itself as a city. The data is such that by 2020, half the world’s population is expected to live in an urban environment.

But why?  First, there are few jobs in the farms, and the jobs there pay comparative less than jobs in the cities. Farms all over the world are in trouble with governments having to subsidize farming incomes. This is because of automation but also because agricultural development does not figure high in most nations economic plans.

But the economic rationale is not the only reason. We only have to go back a 100 or so years to search for the mythic roots – it is of going to London town and find streets paved with gold. While rural communities are successfully able to provide for basic needs (at least when the harvest is good, when nature does not play tricks), it has been unable to provide for wealth creation. Rurality means that one lives according to the seasons – ups and downs – one doe snot enter the long term linear secular trend of wealth accumulation. It is in the city where this can happen, riches can be earned.  The city then becomes the dream fulfiller, where the future can be realized.

And there are lock-ins. Once one family goes to the city, others follow suit. Once others follow suit, economies of scale take over – along with the factory worker, one needs the brick layer, eventually, service industries and financial industries as well. More population and more wealth.

But this is too simple, cities are also packed with the poor, who now live in misery, that is, while in the farm they were poor, still poverty was sustainable – there was a sharing of wealth. But with the city comes the classic anomie, fragmentation, alienation.

And yet we rarely return to the farm instead of as imagined places of peace and comfort. My own memory of  the village is community, of waking up together with other villagers, eating parata (Pakistani deep fried bread), and sitting around gupshupping (gossiping and storytelling). Yet I rarely go back to the village, instead preferring to find community, not through the straitjacket of by genetic birthplace, but through intended communities. I prefer to find community by creating it. It is the city that best accomplishes this. Or does it?
Interlude: as I write this article at Taipei International Airport, the model Cindy Crawford walks by – city life is now glamour life, even economy class passengers can participate in the excitement of stardom.

But return to the village matters little, it is a fictional memory, it gives us a benchmark. It allows us to see our progress – we can see how far we have progressed from rurality and at the same time, in our mind we retain a sense of safety, we can return to the past.

Instead of paratas, village songs and chirping birds, we have chosen  Blade Runner or modern day Bangkok/LA.  And as the Net spreads its tentacles, instead of Blade Runner as our guiding image, it is the Matrix that represents the future of the city, having forgotten the past, we now enter a world in which we no longer can distinguish what is real and what is illusory. But who will be the redeemer, who like Keanu Reeves, saves us, showing us the light? So far the redeemers, those who have called for a return to the village have only brought more death, Pol Pot being the most famous example.

The likely future of the city then is an erasure of our million year history, whether the Sumerians or whomever one desires to claim began the urbanization process knew it would lead to this is doubtful. But our rural history appears to have reached its end.

Different futures

Yet if our aspirations in any way reflect our possible, if not probable, futures, then the Earth as City may not be ultimately occur, agency has not been lost.

In dozens of futures visioning workshops across the world – Taiwan, Germany, New Zealand, Malaysia, Pakistan, the USA – where participants are asked to in detail describe their preferred futures, two images are dominant.

The first is the globalist scenario – a jet plane for all, unrestricted movement of capital and labour as well as ideas and news – not a utopia but certainly a good society where feudalism, hierarchy, nationalist power break down and humans function as autonomous fulfilled beings. The market is primary but a globalized worlds allows endless associations – nongovernmental organizations, religious affiliations, and other forms of identity currently unimaginable. With scarcity less of a problem, who we are and how we express this changing identity become far more crucial. The city becomes a site of intention. Freedom is realized (insert painting one – from www.futurefoundation.org).

As dominant as this first future is a second. This future is far less concerned with movement and more focused on stability. But the stability does not come from stasis but from connection – relationship with self, with loved one, with community and with nature.  Wealth is no longer the crucial determining factor of who we are rather it is our capacity to love and be loved, to not live to transform the world but to live in harmony in the world.  Rurality is not tangential to this image – indeed, while this image does not necessarily mean a return to the farm, it does mean a move away from industrial modes of production (that is, high fat, meat based diets and the accompanying waste disposal paradigm) and postmodern modes of production (genetically modified foods) to an organic, recyclable mode of eating and living.

Technology should not be seen as a defining factor. In the former, technologies leads to greater wealth, to multiple selves (a geneticized self, an internet self, for example), to access to endless information. In the latter, technologies are important insofar as they lead to greater communication and greater employment. Technology creating new spaces for human community is the key for the latter vision of the future.

Historically, the image of the city has gone from the city beautiful, focused on parklands, clean streets to the city ecological.  But ever since the 1964 New York World Fair a different image of the city has become dominant. This is the high-tech city, or what now call the smart-city. The city that senses and thinks, that can monitor the needs of its citizens – when trees are about to interfere with power lines, when criminals are about to loot a store. However, a smart city, a sim city, is also about surveillance.

Brisbane in Australia has over 100 cameras in its central business district. These both protect yet they also change one’s relationship with power. One is always seen.  But can a smart city liberate us from our fears and allow us to become in fact more human? A smart city at the beginning consists of smart houses but as well humans with smart bots, always on wearable computers which amplify our senses – the wireless revolution that has already begun with teenagers in Japan.. These bots are likely  health focused, helping us choose the right products that match our values (ecological products or low-fat foods, or products made by corporations that treat other cultures well, that are good corporate citizens). But they will also help us find directions, let us know the sales going on (if indeed, we will still shop outside the Net), and where our friends out, becoming true knowledge navigators.  While the image of the American cartoon The Jetsons is perhaps an apt image, we can ask what is that image missing. Yes, life will be more efficient – automation, perfect information, however, who will be excluded? Will our behavior become regimented, that is, with smartness be based on linear reductionist notions of the world, or more on complexity, that is, on a  paradigm that smartness comes from difference, from learning about others.

Exclusion if often central to a planned city. Planned cities are designed cities, rationally created with neat rows of houses, clear demarcations of industrial areas, prostitution areas, grave sites and shopping areas.  The Pakistani capital Islamabad is one such planned city. Designed in the 1960’s by Ford Foundation planners, the image that guided them was the American city, pivotally, the vacuum cleaner. However, with cheap labour vacuum cleaners were not a necessity. But where to put the sweapers. As it turned out the moved to Islamabad as well, building kathchi abadis.  These temporary mudbrick houses became a sore site for planners so they built a wall around them.  This becomes the question: what are we walling?

Geneva has taken a different tack. Once a classical traditional white Euro city, in the last thirty years, it has transformed beyond belief. The city looks multicultural with cafes lined with African, middle-eastern, Italian, Indian and fast food restaurants. Public life is community life with dozens of cultures mixing. While most swiss consider Geneva an abheration, others have made peace with multiculturalism by moving to the other side of the river, the traditional unicultural side.

But ultimately there will be no other side of the river. The only hope will be a multicultural city. Inclusion.

Thus, along with the smart city as a guiding image of the futures, comes the multicultural city. But what is the multicultural city.  First it means city spaces are not segregated by race or gender, one should not be able to identify an ethnic area, or at least not see in a negative way. Second, citizens should feel they are part of the city, that they are not discriminated against, especially by those in authority. The actions of public officials and employees are crucial here. The Net of course helps greatly by hiding our gender, accent and colour.  But a multicultural city is also about incorporates others ways of knowing, of creating a complex and chaotic model of space such that the city does not necessarily match the values of only one culture – mosques with temples with banks. City design not only done by trained city planners but as well by feng shui experts, searching for the energy lines, decoding which areas are best for banking, what for play, what for education – essentially designing and building for beauty that helps achieve particular functions broadly defined.

Writes Starhawk in her The Fifth Sacred Thing: [1]

The vision of the future is centred in the city; it’s a vision where people have lots of different religions, cultures and subcultures but they can all come together and work together. It starts with a woman climbing a hill for a ritual and visiting all the different shrines of these different religions and cultures that are up on the sacred mountain. To me that is what I’d like to see. Culture is like a sacred mountain that’s big enough for many, many different approaches to spirit.

Interlude: I am now in Pakistan at the Islamabad Club. A western style golf club complete with swimming pools, fancy waiters and tennis courts. We are about to have tea when the Ahzan – call to prayer begins.  My all the tables is a carpet. Seven people leave their tea, bend down and begin their prayer. No one is bothered that the elitest secularism of the Club has been broken with prayer, indeed, they merge together. After prayer, dinner starts.

Future-Orientation

A multicultural city  is not just concerned about the present but it is future oriented, concerned with all our tomorrows. City planning meeting should for example attempt to keep on chair open. This empty chair could represent future generations, their silent voices represented symbolically. Each political and administrative decision needs to factor in the impact on future generations. Most immediately – five to twenty years – for Western cities, this means the rise of the aged. While the gloss is of happy ageing people, the data currently is that most elderly will live miserable lives, healthy enough to live, not sick enough to die. They will search for community, their children having moved away (unless the Net leads to the return to the home, the place of birth), for meaning and for ease of movement. A smart city will do a great deal in creating such a reality. But smartness will have to be with compassion especially has many of the aged will be mentally ill.

Net living will not make the city any less important. Indeed, home offices make communities far more important. Every move towards efficiency accentuates the need for connection.  Working from home highlights the need for social contact outside of the office space. Work has not just been about making money but about falling in love with office mates, gossiping, going shopping at lunch, making new friends – about living. Telecommuting, while saving money for any organization, raises new issues for workers. Their relationship with their husband or wife changes. Children are no longer far away at school, they are home in the afternoon. For men, housework cannot be exported to their wives since now home the pressure to share in house activities increases.

Anticipating the future of the city as well means asking residents what type of city they want in the future. While most individuals are content with avoiding big-picture national politics, many do care about their local environment – pollutants, level of development, types of parks, quality of schools. However, most city planning exercises are problem based, asking citizens to list the main problems with politicians running on platforms that will solve such problems. However, anticipation means helping residents consider the alternative futures of the city.  This means an interactive process wherein residents suggest visions of the future which then are developed into scenarios by planners which are then fed back to citizens. These visions must be based on their preferred futures, their nightmare scenarios and the likely scenario if nothing is done, if historical trends continue. This process both empowers citizen and leader alike, it also makes it possible to not such plan the ideal city but envision the ideal city.

The interactive process must include expert information on current trends, using mapping technologies to show how the city is currently divided by income, religion and other factors. These maps are already available in many OECD nations. These maps can then be projected outwards with citizens imagining different visualization of the future. Data with vision with conversation with leadership can create a powerful mix of creating cities we truly want.  While the current process of benchmarking – choosing best practice cities and discerning how one’s own city is different from them – is useful and has led to marked improvement in Asian cities, our imagination of what can be is not unleashed. City space is of course about access to water, hospital, safe streets, efficient garbage collection and jobs. But it is also about our imagination of who we can be.

A future-oriented city is thus a democratic city in the sense of deep participation about the future. It can be multicultural in the sense of better representation, of including others’ voices as well as their cultural frameworks. It is smart in the sense of using technology to measure how well we are doing, to provide benchmarks with reference to our ideal city.

Interlude: I remember a conversation in Brisbane, Australia a few years ago with recent refugees arrivals. They said on the drive from the airport, they thought that either the entire population  had gone to a football match or their had been a neutron bomb. Eventually after a week they realized that unlike traditional societies or walkable cities, suburban cities are people-absent after work. Everyone goes home to create community through the mediation of television. The only people walking the streets were southern europeans and asians, who walked nightly and were used to greater populations.   In the drive to modernity, community had been lost. Standardized television community had been gained. The cost: a lonely, fragmented population.

The great fear in creating the smart city is that we will become more socially isolated, meaning that we will die of silent heart attacks in our homes. Of course, the smart house will relay to the smart hospital that someone has died in house number 4 on Main Street. An ambulance will be dispatched and the body quickly wisked away.  Eventually, this will not be even necessary. The smart house will take care of the body, disposing it, arranging a cyber burial and finding a cyberplot. Birth to death will be automated.

But in the background will be our mythic longing for the village.

Can we create then a global village? So far we have shown the capacity to create the global city. Perhaps one day the entire Earth will be a city. It will look stunning from the Moon and Mars. But McLuhan’s vision will always remains with us. Unrealized. Calling us.

Leadership and the multicultural challenge 

The multicultural image challenges us to accept difference, to see the entire planet as a global neighborhood. It means then being responsible for one’s street, virtual or real. The multicultural city also challenges us to develop our capacities for tolerance, for dealing with sounds and smells of others. There have been periods in history when different cultures and civilizations have been in profound contact, where there has been paradigms of pluralism. And yes marauders and local politicians have invaded these sacred spaces, creating a politics of exclusion instead of an ethics of inclusion.

The 20th century will be remembered for both tendencies – exclusion and inclusion

Interlude: Novi Sad, Serbia – even as Serbian refugees  from Croatia and Kosovo stream in changing the demographics of the city and as poverty continues to rise (with no end in sight of Milosevic or sanctions) – is a livable city, and remains a multicultural one as well, a beautiful city. Everything is in walkable distance, plays, street theater continue, and citizens present a noble face even as their nation dies.  Albanians  are still safe even though the war in Kosovo has strained community relations. In contrast was Srebrenica a few years ago, where 7500 men and youth Bosnian Muslims were murdered by the Bosnian Serbs, or Sarajevo which was pummeled by Serb sniper fire.  I feel sadness for Novi Sad’s citizens seeing their dreams of socialist utopia degenerate into fascist nationalism. Bridges destroyed. But most of all for their diminished power in creating the eclectic inclusive future many there desire.

Multiculturalism has to have a broader context, either a deep internal ethics or a broader ideology of inclusion. However, the context pivots on leadership. Where leadership has used difference to rise in local and national power, the visions and histories of others has been the first causality, and ultimately ignorance has returned to destroy culture itself, the host and others. Where leadership has focused not on ethnic differences but empowered individuals to transcend their petty differences and create a better society for all, civilization has flourished.

Gene therapy and germ line engineering are likely to create even more disharmonies between cultures, where access to genetic advantage will become as important as access to wealth, education and technology. New forms are species are likely to challenge the limits of our tolerance, and, if humans become a minority in the artificial future, we are likely to challenge their tolerance of imperfection. And while bodies can perhaps be perfected, love and tolerance can only be learned in two ways: trauma leading to fear leading to collapse leading  (and the unending hell of revenge) or through transcendence. Moving to a higher plane of consciousness.

Without an image of transcendence  we die as a civilization. A multicultural city creates spaces for difference, but for it to unify the polarity of  village/city, it will have to transcend difference, seize upon an image of the future which enables and ennobles us to go beyond limitations.


[1] Starhawk, Envisioning the future in M.J. Ryan, The fabric of the Future. Berkely, Conari Press, 1998, 303.

Science, Civilization and Global Ethics: Can We Understand the Next 1000 Years? (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

What will the world look like in one thousand years? What factors will create the long-term future? What are the trajectories? Will we survive as a species? Will science reduce human ignorance through its discoveries or will ignorance increase as science becomes the hegemonic discourse? Will that which is most important to us always remain a mystery, outside our knowing efforts? What should be the appropriate framework in which to think of the long-term?

In a series of meetings sponsored by the Foundation for the Future, these and other issues are being explored by leading scientists, social scientists, paleo-anthropologists and futurists from around the world. The first of the FFF Humanity 3000 seminars was held in Seattle, Washington from April 11-14, 1999  and the second was held from September  26-29, 1999 and the third, August 13-26th, 2000. However the specific dates are quite inconsequential as what makes the Foundation unique is its intent to conduct regular symposia over the next few hundred years.  The results of each individual seminar are far less important than the larger knowledge base of the long-term future created from these conversations between, what Bob Citron, Foundation President, believes are the brightest minds in the world.  While this may or may not be true, the mix of thinkers is certainly multi-disciplinary and representing a range of political spectrums, from the extreme political right to the new left.

The first seminar focused on three areas: space exploration; global ethics and human enhancement with a debate between those who saw evolution as directed and those who saw evolution as random. The second seminar revolved around three debates (which were not resolved): is there one science or are there many sciences; is population and dysgenics a problem or a symptom of world inequity; and, is technology or encounters with the Other more crucial in the long-run.  The larger conference focused on three areas: global ethics; science and technology; and sustainability.  It concluded with a debate on if humanity would successfully evolve creating brighter futures for all or if imperialism, racism, environmental problems and governance crisis would lead to full scale global catastrophe.

This essay weaves together issues from both seminars and the conference,  and is less of a report, and more an inquiry into the nature of the long-term future.  While one can certainly argue that thinking one thousand years forward has little relevance, however, by taking a long-term perspective one can more easily ask: what is really of most importance?  A long-term focus also gives conceptual space allowing one to take an evolutionary view of history, seeing the grand patterns of biological and civilizational change. Individual trauma becomes less important, species trauma, survival, becomes more so. A long-term perspective also forces one to question the intellectual lenses, the paradigms one uses to think about the future, indeed, the entire episteme that frames what one thinks and can think?  Thus, far from a useless activity, a thousand year perspective is precisely the type of activity scientists, historians and futurists must be engaged in, if we are to survive and thrive, and discover who and what it is that “we” are.

However, thinking this far ahead is not without dangers. Generally, the longer span one takes the more implicit values come into place. The probable future often becomes more of a preferred. However, values end up being hidden by claims to science or civilization.  Second, the time scale is so fast that the conversation slips into the most important current issues (overpopulation, environment) and third, solutions and dominant perspectives emerge from current discoveries (genetics and artificial intelligence).

Recreated Selves

Thus, a pivotal issue that emerged from these conversations between physicists, biologists, ethicists, and social scientists is the dramatic probability of germ line therapy to change the very nature of our nature, to recreate not only what it means to be human, but what humans physically are and can be.

In the first seminar, one gene splicer, having left the USA where certain aspects of genetic research are illegal, commented that human cloning has probably already been accomplished. Extrapolate that out a few hundred years, and the last century of incredible technological change suddenly seems puny. Indeed, William Gates Professor of Genetics, Leroy Hood asserted at the second seminar that we are in the midst of the grandest revolution in human history. Within a generation we will move from genetic prevention to genetic enhancement to genetic recreation.  With the mapping of the human genome, parents will have knowledge about the genetic makeup of their children. Along with virtual AI technology, they will be able to view, as if in a movie, the life patterns of their children, the trajectory of their diseases and health. Selective abortion will be a possibility for many parents. Human intelligence will be enhanced. And quite possibly, a new species will be created.  We will perhaps be remembered in evolutionary history, less for ourselves, and more for the species we have created. As Doyne Farmer of the Sante Fe Institute writes:[1]

If we fail in our task as creators (creating our successors), they may indeed be cold and malevolent. However, if we succeed, they maybe glorious, enlightened creatures that far surpass us in their intelligence and wisdom. It is quite possible that, when the conscious beings of the future look back on this earth, we will be most noteworthy, not in and of ourselves, but rather for what we gave rise to. Artificial life is potentially the most beautiful creation of humanity.

Informed by the information sciences and buddhist epistemology, Susantha Goonatalike argues that life has always been artificial, the nature-city distinction as well as the virtual-artificial are false. Indeed, he imagines a future where the physical will be seen as virtual and the ideational seen as real. Technology will play a pivotal role in showing us what is maya, and what is real.

The future then is quite likely to see quite dramatic shifts in the boundaries of what we consider the self, said the author of The Future of the Self, Walter Truett Anderson.  While history has been considered “given” created by God or nature, the future is being increasingly made, we are directly intervening in evolution, creating new forms of life. Instead of a world populated only by humans and animals, the long-term future is likely to be far more diverse. There will be chimeras, cyborgs, robots and possibly even biologically created slaves. Our future generations may look back at us and find us distant relatives, and not particularly attractive ones.

Others such as Clement Bezold imagine a future where connection and community, intimacy and not distance, are far more crucial. Human values such as how we treat the other, be the other human or android are the crucial issues, and not our technological sophistication. Relating to other is not just about our emotional health, but relationship itself is a way of knowing. Moreover, for Bezold, it is not so much survival but thrival that is crucial.

However, for Goonatalike as well as for David Comings (Director of Medical Genetics at the City of Hope National Medical Centre in the United States and a researcher in the area of human behavioral disorders), the impact of genetics is foundational since it unlocks our evolutionary keys.  Gregory Stock (Director of the Program on Medicine, Technology and Society at UCLA) points out that with germ line engineering it is just not the individual’s genes that are being transformed but future generations as well.[2]

Writes Stock:[3]

Technology seems to have progressed to the point now where it is turning back upon us and is reshaping us (or has the potential to reshape us) in the same way that it has reshaped the world around us. This would lead us to believe that this is an absolute landmark in human history and perhaps in the history of life, because now we are beginning to alter the blueprint of life itself and seize control of our own evolution.

To the issue that the complexity of the human genome is such that manipulation will prove problematic, Stock reminds that developments in computers and technology will allow us to manage such complexity.

However, perhaps it is that life itself is so complex and any attempt to engineer life (or society) will always by its very nature have side-affects, that these “complications” are part of the human predicament, just as there is no free lunch, there is no free experiment. This indeed may be the very nature of intelligence. Ignorance does not diminish but expands with specific kinds of knowledge!  This is especially the case when knowledge is framed outside is various contexts. These include how the intellect itself is constructed: as the only way of knowing or as one of many ways of knowing. As well, whether the intellect is seen as divorced from identity or whether it can be used to expand the self beyond class, race, gender, civilization and human definitions.

The long-term future of humanity thus cannot be divorced from the self (and how it is imagined) that is engaged in this activity.

Ethics and the encounter with the Other

How will intelligence look like in the future? Will it be human or artificial? What will be the boundaries? Advances in AI are so quick that it is now defined as whatever machines can’t do today, since tomorrow they will be able to. How long will it be before judicial decision-making is done by AI know-bots, asks futurist James Dator? Will nano-technology make scarcity irrelevant creating a world of unending material bliss? Or will it be the development of our spiritual qualities that will be far more important, asks Barbara Marx Hubbard, director of the Foundation for Conscious Evolution? She imagines the internet, travel and increased emphasis on inner transformation creating a global planetary consciousness – a noosphere. But will we be able to move from egocentric consciousness to spiritual ego-less consciousness, concerned with authentic dialogue between civilizations, asks philosopher Ashok Gangadean?  It is not so much the technology but our relationship with others, be they aliens, clones or robots that is far more important, he and others argue. Tony Judge takes the conversation deeper, asking us to think how the metaphors and language we use to frame such issues limits us, how we force ourselves into simplistic notions of self/other; materialism/spirituality, and technology/society. Indeed, he challenges us to go beyond flat-land reductionism to complex layered depth. Political scientist Inayatullah as well suggests that epistemological impoverishment is our greatest challenge. Modernity and postmodernism continue to negate the richness of who we have been and can be.

It is this impoverishment that leads to an analysis of the present and future that remain at the level of the most visible. Of concern is forecasting new technologies instead of exploring what they will mean to variation social groups as well why our evolutionary route has favored technologies of domination and power, instead of technologies of communication and consciousness. Indeed, in the final conference this division was best expressed by Physicist Michio Kaku and Evolutionary theorist, Erwin Laszlo. Kaku focused on the genetic and artificial intelligence revolution and how it will create a dramatically better and different future for all – new products, increased wealth and a global cultural and governance system. In contrast Laszlo argued that up to now we have been engaged in extensive evolution characterized by control, conquest and colonization. Humanity now needed to develop intensive evolution, focused on cooperation, communication with the other and with nature, not only through language but extra-sensory means. At heart then is the encounter with the other (including the other in ourselves)– we will attempt to control and command or cooperate and mutually evolve? Of course, there will be stunning new technologies, new life forms – genetic, artificial and even spiritual, Sarkar’s[4] idea of microvita – but most important is how will we treat the others we encounter, the aliens far away and near, human-made, human discovered, and those that discover us. Will our perceived differences lead us to conclude that they are evil and thus to be destroyed, as common in current geo-political paradigms.

The evidence from these meetings was mixed. The concern with ascertaining if intelligence had racial and gender variation appeared to move science towards a politics of eugenics – of concern not with humanity as a whole but with one’s own class or racial group. At the same time, others argue that there are many types of intelligence in the world and poverty, overpopulation were best explained by external and internal colonialism – that power was far more important. This in its most banal form was expressed in the nature versus nurture debate (and strangely E.O. Wilson argued that the debate was over). In its more complex form this was expressed as agency versus structure. In which ways could humans transform their predicament? Which structures – class, capitalism, communism, feudalism, patriarchy – mitigate against social transformation? And: was human agency only limited to the rational action of humans or where there other unconscious forces, mythic forces as well as the collective consciousness and unconsciousness at work?

The deeper framework for this discussion was the debate between the one factor theorists and complexity approaches. The former was largely expressed by closet social Darwinists (find the right mix of genes and the future can be bright) as well as those committed to consciousness transformation (if we only we can behave better). The latter by complexity theorists (the ethics, context and politics of knowledge), that there are multiple factors that include visible crisis such as environmental degradation but that these factors have multiple levels of understanding. That is, behind environmental degradation are not just policies of wealth generation but the conquest oriented worldview and metaphors that organize such a vision of the self and other. Merely changing ideas is not enough. Institutional and consciousness change is needed: a new culture plus new rules that transcend national governance structures.

This view was, for example, expressed by academic Wendell Bell. For him, peace culture and peace institutions are both needed.  Until we begin peace and reconciliation processes at the minutest – in the family and on the school yard – and the grandest, at the level of the United Nations, we can not progress.

Ethicists such as Yersu Kim, former Director of the UNESCO Project on Global Ethics, agree, believing that more than ever, now is the time to negotiate a globally agreed upon ethical framework, to move science to public space, and to ask tough questions of the science and technology revolution. If we don’t the future will continue to be created through “Saturday night laboratories,” where science will create the future without the regulatory eye of society. Indeed, astrophysicst Eric Chaisson believes that ethics, evolution and energy are implicated in each other, they can not be discussed separately.

However, there was resistance to these two approaches. A few argued that global ethics would lead to a world government that would take away individual freedoms and rights. The second that ethics and science must be delinked, that science is an objective process with ethics coming afterwards and not beforehand.

A third point of tension was what would be the nature of ethics. Historians such as Howard Didsbury argued that ethical notions of what world we would want to live in must be based on the do’s and don’ts of the world’s great religions, others such as Dator forcefully comment that global ethics must not be based on our historical experiences.  The past will not help us deal with the ethical problems being created by new life forms.  Only a far more flexible process and future-based ethics approach can help.  For Clement Chang, Founding President of Tamkang University, the key is the golden mean, creating a society that is neither too scientific nor too religious, neither too materialistic nor too spiritual. It was this middle path in which humanity can find its direction. This Confucian approach, he argues, is the central ethical principle in navigating the future.  This was also expressed with the Sanskrit word, Prama – or dynamic balance. Prama calls for inner and outer balance but not in a static sense.  The feudal mind in science and religion had to be challenged, argued Inayatullah. What this means is that dissent is crucial for the survival of the species. Anytime any system became hegemonic, it has to be resisted. This approach was considered contentious by many scientists. While they believed that religion had to be challenged, they argued that science was bringing truth and well-being for all, and it was outside of reproach. Its abuse could be criticized but not the project and methodology of science itself.

This tension was not resolved in any fashion, indeed, appeared unresolvable since it was a root myth.

Central then to the debate on ethics and the long-term future  is the issue of is there one universal science or can there be more than one science? Cultural critic and philosopher of science, Zia Sardar (author of Postmodernity and the Other, Orientalism, Chaos for Beginners) argues that there can be different ways to know the real. This is not just an issue of different civilizations asking different questions, focusing inquiry on their own pressing problems, but rather that ways of knowing are multiple. In contrast, scientists at FFF meetings such as Robert Shapiro (author of The Human Blueprint and Planetary Dreams) argues strongly that science is universal and objective. There is only science, and not feminist or Islamic, or Indian/Buddhist science.  Just as science has evolved to the objective, sociology will move to a behavioral scientific approach instead of its current critical, poststructural – politics perspective. Those who wish not to enjoy science had that right, however.

For social scientists, however, the issue of values, of ethics is at the heart of the matter. Ethics must be explicit within science and not an afterthought. What type of humans are we, do we want, and what are our boundaries, are not merely technological questions but political and moral issues. We have a responsibility to future generations to not create a dystopia – a Brave New World. Indeed, this was a central critique of the presentation by Kaku. His image of the future foreclosed the future, it did not open up alternatives, rather as he said: “ get on the train (of liberalism, science and technology) or forever be left behind.”

Thus for scientists, science is largely value free, and even if leading to awe and wonder, as physicist/cosmologist Brian Swimme (author of The Hidden Heart of the Cosmos: The Universe is a Green Dragon) reminds us, it is generally an enterprise devoid of values. It is precisely this issue that others such as biologist Elisabeth Sahtouris contest. She sees a new science emerging that is value-laden, with reality as complex, chaotic and not divorced from cosmic consciousness. Indeed, at the very root of who we are, of what is real, is consciousness.  As many argued, there are no value-free positions, a value-free science is impossible.  This however does not mean that rigour, systematic inquiry and empirical truths should be abandoned, rather that science must include issues of ethics, public knowledge, alternative ways of knowing as part of its charge, and not as an externality. The meanings we give to the material world (and the epistemes and social structures that frame these meanings) are as important as the material world itself.

What then is the appropriate frame from which to view the future? Can the future be determined by one variable, or is the future far more complex, multi-factorial with emergence (consciousness or new life forms or new solutions) a central possibility? Indeed, this is the critique of geneticist formulations of the future, touched upon above. It is not intelligence that is being measured but the ability to take an IQ test.  There is no one gene for intelligence, rather, there are a combination of factors, genetic, cultural, spiritual, and access to wealth that define intelligence. Thus, imagining a future where gene therapy leads to enhanced human intelligence is trite since other factors are ignored, and the social cannot be held in abeyance. In this sense, assuming that exponential increases in the internet (creating more information) in genetics (creating smarter humans) will reduce human ignorance forgets that ignorance is part of knowledge, and not separate from it. We could find out that new knowledge only expands our ignorance. It is not only that there are wildcards but there are unthoughts.

The framework for knowledge is thus episteme-based. The episteme – the boundaries of what is knowable – is not stable but changes through history. Thus, what seems as complete knowledge to one generation will seem like magic or maya to another. The response then to the long-term future should be one of humility, of an ever expanding unknown, mystery.  In this sense, projecting a world where one particular perspective on reality, whether positivism  (science and technology) or cultural relativism or a particular ideology, liberalism or socialism, claims victory ignores the contradictions of history and future.

This is not to say that insights into human suffering, into identifying the causes of diseases will be necessarily impossible, no luddite position is taken, but rather that truth is context-based.

Population Dynamics

Another central debate was between the majority such as author Michael Hart and Glayde Whitney (Psychologist, neuroscientist) and Arthur Jensen (author of the G Factor) who see overpopulation (as well as illegal immigration to OECD nations) as one of the biggest hurdles facing humanity, and others, such as Sardar, who see population as a symptom of deeper issues.  Less focused on immigration is the environmental position which argues that overpopulation in poor nations and piggish resource consumption in OECD nations damages the world’s ecosystem (a position elegantly argued by Sir Crispin Tickell and Worldwatch Institute editorial director, Ed Ayres). Generally, many believe that overpopulation creates a vicious cycle where the poor and the third world overproduce while the intelligent and the wealthy first world underproduce. Not only is the future racial make-up of the planet in problematic balance, but over the long-term, the stupid will rule the world –the human genome will be damaged. Worse, feared some, genetic technology could be stolen by rogue nations or individuals.

Far less convinced with this argument, indeed, seeing it is foundationally evil, is the argument that population is a symptom of inequity and a fear of the future. Kerala, for example, a state in India, has achieved low population growth, partly because there is a strong social security system. Women have control over their bodies and their futures. Access to wealth, technology is possible, as is human dignity. In contrast in areas where patriarchy is dominant, or colonialism from the centere (whether the dominant ethnic group or colonial power) reigns than the only resource individuals have are other people.

Humans should be thus seen as being endowed with creative potential, who given appropriate social structures can expand their horizons and improve their well-being. While not all will test well in IQ tests, all have the possibility to do well in the sorts of intelligence that matter to them, and the futures they want to create.  Again, this tension of the role of political and definitional power was not resolved in the seminars of the larger conference.

Beyond the planet

But in case the population problem is not solved there is always outer space. Professor Allen Tough of the University of Toronto says moving beyond the planet is a necessary process for commercial, survival, and idealistic reasons (or creating a sanctuary as Robert Shapiro imagined). Already one entrepreneur has begun hiring for a hotel in space. If there is a nuclear winter, at least some of the human family would survive. Space exploration can lead to contact with other sorts of intelligence, which would force us to genuinely reflect on what it means to be human. It would be the social scientist’s dream, finally having something to compare our planetary neurosis’ with.  And if we meet no one in space, then it may be our destiny to go forth and multiply, argues space writer Steven Dick.

Can the future be known?

Most participants at the symposiums cautioned that the future especially the long-term 1000-year future cannot be known. Not only are there too many factors to predict, but there are unknown unknowns. We don’t even know which wild cards to focus on, although writer Fred Pohl argues that science fiction has already given us great insights as to what the next 1000 years may bring us.  Still, just as the long-term past is difficult to pin point, so the long-term future is foggy. Fact becomes fiction and truth becomes fantasy.

The crux of this issue is not predicting the future, but enhancing humanity’s capacity and confidence to create desired futures, and to create participatory processes in which these aspirations can influence local and global policy.

Directed Evolution

However, at another level, a grander level, the issue of participation is not one focused on human concerns of governance but larger issues of evolution.  Argue philosophers that it is directed evolution that could lead to the challenge of creating more capable humans. This does not, however, have to be a debate on genetic enhancement – which will occur nonetheless, given current trends – but a discussion on the creation of wealthier societies so that basic needs can be accessed by all, so that human potential could develop.  Dr. Meng Kin Lim, an aerospace physician from Singapore, comments that it is the Rawlsian moral equation (from John Rawls A Theory of Justice) that is needed – social equality has to remain the most important principle in our quest to enhance human intelligence. Ultimately, this will be what globalization is really be about – a world government or governance system that guarantees a level playing field so that all humans have the opportunity to expand their intelligence.

But what type of governance system will it be? Taking a macrohistorical perspective, there are only four plausible structures. First a world empire run by one nation or civilization. Second, a world church/ummah/temple where power resides in the normative space of one civilization/religion. Third, a world economy, where the flow of wealth, capital accumulation is far more important and politics is located within nation-states, territories organized around history, language, or other categories. In a fourth possibility, there are mini-systems, autarkies. However, the fourth possibility is unstable as empires, churches and economies globalize them, make them universal. Local self-reliant mini-cultural systems are only possible within a context of a world government structure, a strong polity.  Since no one religion or empire is likely to become victorious, a world economy is more likely. However, since the nation-state is increasingly porous, the world economy/nation state model is now unstable. It appears that the latter alternative (a world government with mini-cultural systems) is quite possible in the very long-term.

Survival

As we venture outward into space, as we create new life forms, expand our intelligence and reduce social and civilizational injustice, we should however never forget the precarious nature of life. We may not even survive.  Phillip Tobias, one of the world’s leading archeologists, tells us that 90% of the world’s species have become extinct.  We may be next. However, even as he cautions, by tracing human evolution, he offers a story of hope for the future, of humans learning from mistakes, and proceeding slowly onwards.

While most scientists assert that evolution does not have a direction but is random, others point out that we are already intervening in human evolution, we are already directing the future, we just need to do a good job of it – to make sure we create a better future, not make a gigantic mess of it all.

We must ensure to anticipate the intended consequence of our interventions, to engage in, what in neurobiologist Terry Deacon – who is currently engaged in research using cross-species transplantation of embryonic brain –  calls the simulation imperative.  If we don’t begin to consider the long-term alternative futures ahead, if we don’t create the necessary global institutional foresight to anticipate the future, we may not make it to the next evolutionary step.

Unfortunately, while the FFF seminars are part of many similar conversations throughout the world, they have shown that we are far – at least in terms of leading thinkers – from any shared view of what are the critical factors in humanity’s survival and thrival, indeed, in what is the appropriate framework for embarking on such a project.

However, the points of tension are clearer. To summarize these include:

One factor versus complexity
Social Darwinism versus ethical evolution
One science versus many ways of knowing
Extensive versus intensive evolution
Overpopulation versus gender empowerment
Environmental and cultural catastrophe versus technological salvation
Global ethics versus national rights
Materialistic versus ideational approaches
Consciousness transformation or institutional change

Can these factors be bridged, transcended? Lets hope so!

References

[1] Waldrop, M., Complexity, New York, Touchstone, 1992, p.284.

[2] Stock, Gregory and Campbell, John. Engineering the Human Germline. London, Oxford University

[3] http://research.mednet.ucla.edu/pmts/germline/questions/qwatershed.htm

[4] Inayatullah, Sohail and Fitzgerald, Jennifer, eds.,  Transcending Boundaries. P.R Sarkar’s Theories of Individual and Social Transformation. Maleny, Gurukul, 1999. Bill Halal and Graham Molitor also point to the emergent technologies of consciousness, accessing reality through deeper levels of the mind. In contrast Jo Coates found any discussion of psychic and spiritual consciousness, in any time frame, ridiculous. This of course underlies the integrated (or ideational) versus empiricist tension.