How Well Do You Get Along With Your Robot? (2015)

Automation and our jobless futures

SOHAIL INAYATULLAH

 

THE CHALLENGING FORECAST

A recent report by the Foundation for Young Australian provides three dramatic forecasts. These are: [i]

  • 44 per cent of jobs will be automated in the next 10 years
  • 60 per cent of students are chasing careers that won’t exist
  • Young people will have an average of 17 different jobs

BACK TO THE 1990S

While forecasts like these are normally reserved for predictive futurists, the dramatic nature of disruption that the world has experienced the last twenty years has made change the norm. If we go back twenty years ago to the early 1990s, a number of significant changes were just beginning that have been instrumental in creating the world we live in today. These included:

  1. The fall of the Berlin wall, the breakdown of the Soviet Union and the eventual integration of much of Eastern Europe into the European Union.
  2. The beginning of the worldwideweb creating now a world where the pivotal issue today is the virtual entering the material world – “leaving the screen”, the creation of the internet of things, persons and systems – the full digitalization of information and the perhaps the realization of the hundred year dream of the HG Well’s The World Brain.[ii]
  3. The beginning of the human genome project, creating a world where prevention becomes the norm and every Australian born in 2025 could receive a full life map of personalized genetic risk factors.
  4. The rise of China (and to some extent India), with China moving from a peripheral global economic player – from twenty billion in foreign reserves to nearly four trillion [iii]and rapidly becoming the largest economy in the world.
  5. The beginning of ageing throughout the Western world and East Asia, leading to a number of issues including depopulation with entire European villages for sale for under 100,000 euros,[iv] lifelong learning, and the quite dramatic shift from there being enough young people to pay for the pensions of the aged, to there being a lack of young people to pay for pensions. The lack of young people impacts not just the superannuation formula (the worker-retiree ratio) but decreasing enrolments in the education sector, among other factors.
  6. The beginning of what we now call international terrorism with the Arab CIA recruits eventually becoming Al-Qaeda, uniting with the Taliban, and further disruptions in Iraq and Syria leading to the rise of Daesh. The result of the inability of find a geopolitical solution then leading to the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War Two, indeed, calling into question the entire European project. With Russia now joining the war in the Middle-East, we can easily anticipate Afghanistan 2.0.
  7. The 90s also began the great boom – from globalization, from the peace dividend, and from the imagination of the “end of history,” of social and political conflict. But history as it turned out would not end, instead, a global financial crisis resulted, caused by
  8. the shift of the world economy to China,
  9. disintermediation created by the new digital and robotic technologies,
  10. the shift from coal and oil to the new “renewables”,
  11. lack of global and national regulation of financial institutions, and,
  12. speculative bubbles in housing.

The result for education has been a shift from education has an investment to education as an expense. Governments throughout the world have been reducing their expenditures in education, as they deal with increased social security costs and security costs (from the reality and the imagination of international terrorism).[v]

To deal with the new reality of decreased government subsidies, in 2015, universities find themselves moving toward virtual learning with the intention of having more students with less labour costs, and continuing to expand to new areas -the emerging markets where the demand for education is insatiable.[vi] At the same time, to deal with drop in government funding, there is the continued casualization of the workforce, with more being demanded for less. [vii] In Australia, ‘‘casualization’’ is now 60 percent of the higher education workforce (Luyt et al., 2008).[viii] Comparing the university to the garment industry, Patricia Kelly calls casual lecturers ‘‘piece workers of the mind’’ (Kelly, 2011).[ix]

THE NEXT TEN YEARS

These trends are unlikely to stop in the next ten years.[x] The number of students enrolled in higher education, for example, is likely to double to 262 million by 2025, with most the growth in developing nations such as India and China.[xi] Over 8 million of these students will travel to other countries. [xii]The market size for global education was 2.5 trillion dollars in 2011[xiii] and is now 4.4 trillion us dollars. It is expected to continue to grow with e-learning projected to grow by 23%. [xiv]

We can thus expect more digitalization and virtualization (and with holograms and virtual technology) far more high-tech-soft touch experiences. We can also expect the continued globalization of education with providers at high school and university levels coming from all over the world, competing for the student dollar. Disruptions are likely. Perhaps it will as with uber, airbnb, snapgoods[xv] and other aspects of the sharing economy, where formal providers – the universities – are disrupted by peer-to-peer app based networks. The means a world where learning is, where you want it, when you want it, how you want it, and at cheaper costs. Education may also be disrupted by the major players – Alibaba, Google, Facebook – who could offer degree courses not just for employees or training but doctoral courses. Of course, national accreditation remains the barrier. While this barrier may be feudal, the debate in the next ten years will be can it be broken, can the castle walls of the university be broached by the new tech “bedouins”. They may be innovators or barbarians but the castle will be challenged.

And, youth expect this to be so. Having grown up in digital environments where the user and connectivity adds value, these digital natives will be in positions of executive power throughout the world by 2025-2030. While there are always pendulum shifts to the” good old days” of the industrial era, in 15 years: ipads and iphones will not be considered new technologies, but like chairs and tables, part of the infrastructure, what is expected.[xvi] The tension between new technologies and traditional worldviews will have been resolved. But this is far from guaranteed.

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

Four possible scenarios are likely.

First: Teach and train for the 1950s. In this future, educators assume youth – high school and university students – will have one job, one career and live in one nation. The story line would be: “teaching for jobs that no longer exist.” Thus, the educational system in this future will be unable to meet the challenges of the major disruptions. For students and teachers, it will be like living in a prison cell (wasting their time and when they are free, they will be irrelevant). As William Bossert, a Harvard Professor who taught computer sciences in the 1970s, recently commented: “If you’re [xvii]afraid that you might be replaced by a computer, then you probably can be-and should be.”

Second: Add a few courses on computers and Asian languages. In this future, through national broadband networks, the speed of access to information changes, but there is no real change in infrastructure. Academic hierarchy continues. Classrooms remain ordered in rows. Knowledge is about repeating information. The story line would be: “too little, too late”. For students, they will face a disconnect between virtual world/peer-to-peer networks and the formal industrial educational system. They will be physically in class but mentally far away.

Third: teach and train for emerging industries. In this future, high schools and universities, indeed, the entire educational system, teaches for the current emerging futures. Curriculum will likely be focused on the following areas:

  • robotics
  • bio-informatics
  • peer to peer
  • care for ageing
  • meditation and emotional intelligence
  • software design
  • city design
  • 3d printing
  • the internet of everything
  • solar and wind energy, including smart houses and cities

The tag line for this future is: “high-tech, high touch.” Students find their needs meet, they are excited about education and blend easily between formal high school and university and their own virtual peer to peer learning frameworks. The value added is not problem solving as computers can do that with ease, but with defining the problem and with being alert to how the nature of the problem keeps on shifting, that is, we are embedded in complex adaptive systems that change as we intervene in the system, as we solve the problem.

The fourth future is more radical and is titled: teach and train for a world after jobs.

This future takes the forecast by the Foundation for Young Australians seriously concluding that the emerging efficiency, collaborative and sharing economy will likely dominate by 2030. Robotics, the internet of everything and major disruptions will make education no longer about jobs but about purpose, adaptability and meaning. The passing on between generations will not be data based but about the sharing of emotional, spiritual and new forms of intelligence. Says Meg Bear, Vice-president of Oracle, “Empathy is the critical 21st-century skill.”[xviii] Indeed, the main issue will be: “how well do you get along with your robot.” [xix]As AI is best suited for standardized work, performance is not about being like a “lean machine,” but as “good at being a person. Great performance requires as to be intensely human beings,” argues Geoff Colvin in his new book, Human are Underrated. Value comes from the ability “to build relationships, brainstorm, collaborate, and lead.” [xx]

It would be a post-scarcity world, where current – 2015 – way of acting and being would be disadvantageous. The tag line for this scenario is: “strangers in a strange land.

Students will find this world both exciting and threatening. Exciting as it opens up many possibilities but threatening in that they will need to adjust to and create new forms of physical and knowledge infrastructure. They future will be truly unknown.

Education would have been disrupted in this scenario. The castle would have been breached. The knights – the professors – could go back to what they truly love – reflecting, learning, teaching, and the creation of new knowledge.

Would it become an ecological playground? Perhaps. But once the moat goes down, it is unclear what will emerge afterwards. Perhaps the villagers outside the castle walls may storm inside, or perhaps they will welcome the new global brain.

We shall see. In the meantime, believing that tomorrow will be likely today is a precursor to obsolescence.

 

REFERENCES

[i] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-24/next-generation-chasing-dying-careers/6720528 – foundation for young australians. Accessed 1 September 2015. For the full report, see: http://www.fya.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/fya-future-of-work-report-final-lr.pdf. Accessed 3 October 2015.

[ii] Well, H.G, (1938) The World Brain. New York: Doubleday.

[iii] http://www.chinability.com/Reserves.htm. Accessed 3 October 2015.

[iv] http://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2014/mar/10/for-sale-spanish-village-free-right-owner. Accessed 3 October 2015. http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/08/23/433228503/in-spain-entire-villages-are-up-for-sale-and-theyre-going-cheap. Accessed 3 October 2015.

[v] For more on this, see: Inayatullah, S. (2012). “University futures: Wikipedia University, Core-periphery reversed, Incremental Managerialism or Bliss for all,” On the Horizon, (Vol. 20, No. 1), 84–91.

[vi] For more on the higher education demand, see: http://www.britishcouncil.org/sites/default/files/the_shape_of_things_to_come_-_higher_education_global_trends_and_emerging_opportunities_to_2020.pdf. Accessed 3 October 2015.

[vii] Whyte, S. (2011), ‘‘Aging academics set university time bomb’’, The Sydney Morning Herald, 16

January, available at: www.smh.com.au/national/ageing-academics-set-university-timebomb-

20110115-19ry1.html. Accessed 24 January 2011.

[viii] Luyt, B., Zainal, C.Z.B.C., Mayo, O.V.P. and Yun, T.S. (2008), ‘‘Young people’s perceptions and usage of

Wikipedia’’, Information Research, Vol. 13 No. 4, December, available at: http://informationr.net/ir/13-4/

paper377.html. Accessed 6 October 2011.

[ix] Kelly, P. (2011), personal communication, 25 January.

[x] http://www.ey.com/AU/en/Industries/Government—Public-Sector/UOF_University-of-the-future. Accessed 6 October 2015.

[xi] http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20120216105739999. Accessed 6 October 2015.

[xii] http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20120216105739999. Accessed 6 October 2015.

[xiii] http://www.edarabia.com/15179/. Accessed 6 October 2015.

[xiv] http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/marketplacek12/2013/02/size_of_global_e-learning_market_44_trillion_analysis_says.html. Accessed 6 October 2015.

[xv] http://www.forbes.com/pictures/eeji45emgkh/airbnb-snapgoods-and-12-more-pioneers-of-the-share-economy/. Accessed 10 October 2015. http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21573104-internet-everything-hire-rise-sharing-economy. Accessed 10 October 2015.

[xvi] http://edition.cnn.com/2012/12/04/business/digital-native-prensky/. Accessed 10 October 2015.

[xvii] Geoff Colvin, “Human are Underrated,” Fortune.com, (No. 10), 1 August 2015, 45.

[xviii] quoted in Geoff Colvin, “Human are Underrated,” Fortune.com (No. 10), 1 August 2015, 45.

[xix] Anne Fisher, “Could you be replaced by a thinking machine?” http://fortune.com/2015/11/01/artificial-intelligence-robots-work/. Accessed 2 November 2015.

[xx] Geoff Colvin, “Human are Underrated,” Fortune.com, (No. 10), 1 August 2015, 46.

Featured book: Asia 2038 (2018)

Asia 2038: Ten Disruptions That Change Everything

By Sohail Inayatullah and Lu Na

Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University, Tamsui, 2018

Using insights from hundreds of foresight workshops in Asia, ASIA 2038: Ten Disruptions That Change Everything explores ten key disruptive emerging issues. These include:

  • The rise of Asian women;
  • The new extended Asian family;
  • The end of the God King and the Big Man;
  • New facilitated models of learning and teaching;
  • The wandering societies of Asia;
  • Climate change leading to institutionalized foresight;
  • The great migration to Asia;
  • Towards an Asian confederation;
  • Asia leading in the transition to a spiritual post-capitalist society; and,
  • An Asia that says yes to itself.

Along with an analysis of these disruptions, stories are used to illustrate these new futures.

Inayatullah and Lu Na argue that Asia is in the midst of a major and foundational shift. The shift is not only related to the spheres of economy, technology and geo-politics; equally important are current and coming social and cultural changes.

But this book is not just about what is likely to happen, it focuses more on using the future to create desired visions, since what we can foresee and imagine, we can also create.

Asia 2038 highlights ten interrelated emerging issues or disruptions that point towards multiple possibilities for Asia. The book intends to provide a working map of the nature of both the disruption and the many possibilities ahead, so that wiser decisions can be made as we create futures. In addition to these many possibilities the book also outlines a number of shared desired visions for Asia 2038, based on decades of conducting workshops and interviews with a range of people across the region.

Emerging issues are credible, potentially high impact occurrences which may be of low probability at the time they are identified. However, if and when they become the new norm, they ‘change everything’. What appears impossible can suddenly become the plausible.

Certainly, in the next twenty years and beyond, many things will remain stable. At the same time, we can also expect dramatic changes. As to which Asia actually emerges, while there are signs enabling “Continued Asian Miracle” and flatter, greener, more transparent, equitable and confederate Asia, other futures, such as “Asia in Decline” or perhaps “Fortress Asia” are equally possible. Whichever future results, the emerging issues and trends suggest more, not less, disruption in the decades to come.

However, Asia 2038 is thus not only about emerging trends and disruptions to come or about possibilities and scenarios for the future. It is also about imagining the best version of Asia, an Asia that continues to innovate and flourish in ways that benefit current and future generations. In sum, Asia 2038 as it could be.

Length: 142 pages

Purchase: PDF or Paperback

Seven Positive Trends Amidst the Doom and Gloom (2012)

By Sohail Inayatullah

January 06, 2012

While there is a great deal of bad, indeed, horrendous, news in the world ­- global warming, terrorism, the global financial crisis, water shortages, worsening inequity – ­there are also signs of positive change.

GENOMICS

First, in genomics, the revolution of tailoring health advice has begun. Among other websites, www.23andme.com provides detailed personal genetic information to consumers. It provides, “the latest research on how your genes may affect risk for common diseases and conditions such as heart attack, arthritis and cancers.” Once your genome is analyzed, you will also be able to “see your personal history through a new lens with detailed information about your ancient ancestors and comparisons to global populations today.” This development in genomics is good news in that more

information about your personal health future is available. Of course, these are just probabilities and should be used wisely, helping each person make better health choices today. Avoiding creating self­fulfilling prophecies of potential future illnesses would be a priority in teaching individuals to understand their genome map. Bringing wisdom to more information is crucial especially given forecasts that within 10 years every baby will be given a complete genome map at birth.

MEDITATION

Second, there is positive news in meditation research. Study after study confirms that meditation is not only of individual benefit but as national health expenditures keep on increasing (because of increased demand from an aging population) along with exercise, low­fat vegetarian food and a close community, meditation as part of a national health strategy can reduce public health costs. For example, we know that studies show that regular meditators exhibit: 87% less heart disease, 55.4% less tumors, 50.2% less hospitalization, 30.6% less mental disorders and 30.4% less infectious diseases (Matthew Bambling, Mind, Body and Heart, Psychotherapy in Australia, February 2006, 52­59). There are even reports on the benefits of meditation for military care providers, not a sector known for spiritual development. Meditation even changes the nature of the brain. Researchers at Harvard, Yale and MIT have found that brain scans reveal that experienced meditators boasted increased thickness in parts of the brain that dealt with attention and processing sensory input. The structure of the adult brain can thus change, suggests the research. Indeed, research as well suggests that through meditation we can train ourselves to be more compassionate toward others. It appears that cultivating compassion and kindness through meditation affects brain regions that can make a person more empathetic to other peoples’ mental states, say researchers at the University of Wisconsin­ in Madison.

While we have had anecdotal evidence of the importance of meditation, developments in MRI scanning have taken the research to new levels providing us with visual and repeatable (scientific) evidence.

SPIRITUALITY

Third, we are witnessing a rise in the significance of spirituality as a worldview and as a practice. Spirituality is defined broadly as a practice that brings inner peace and love for self and the transcendent as well as being inclusive of others, that is, it does not claim to be exclusive or in a hierarchy of who is above and who is below. In their book, The Cultural Creatives, Paul Ray and Sherry Anderson go so far as to say that up to 25% of those in OECD nations now subscribe to a new worldview with spirituality as a central feature. Overtime this worldview will likely have increasingly tangible impacts on economic, transport and governance systems.

In their book, A Spiritual Audit of Corporate America, Ian Mitroff and Elizabeth Denton found “spirituality as one of the most important determinants of performance.” Of the 200 companies surveyed, sixty percent believed that spirituality was a benefit provided no particular view of religion was pushed. Georgeanne Lamont’s research in the UK at ‘soul­friendly’ companies ­ including Happy Computers, Bayer UK, Natwest, Microsoft UK, Scott Bader, Peach Personnel ­ found lower than average absenteeism, sickness and staff turnover ­ which saved the businesses money. In one example, Broadway Tyres introduced spiritual practices and absenteeism dropped from twenty­five/thirty percent to two percent.

And: research shows a positive correlation between spiritual organisations and the bottom line ­ organisations that can inspire employees to a ‘higher cause’ tend to have enhanced performance because of the increased motivation and commitment this tends to generate.

HEALTHY AND GREEN CITIES

Fourth, we are seeing that while many problems are too big for national governments, local governance is thriving. Many cities are taking the future to heart. In Australia for example, Future 2030 city projects are slowly becoming part of the norm (Brisbane, the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Logan City, for example). Cities are broadening democracy to include visioning. Citizens are asked about their desired image of their city – transport, skyline, design, and community – and are working with political leaders and professional staff to create their desired futures. This leads not only to cities changing in directions citizens authentically prefer, but it enhances the capacity of citizens to make a difference. Democracy becomes not only strengthened but the long­term becomes part of decision­ making – a type of anticipatory democracy is being created. Those politicians who prefer to keep power to themselves and not engage in the visioning tend to be booted out, suggests some research (Steve Gould, Creating Alternative Community Futures. MA thesis, University of the Sunshine Coast, 2009).

And what type of futures do citizens prefer? They tend to want more green (gardens on rooftops, for example), far less cars (more public transport), technology embedded in their day­ to­ day lives ­ a seamless integration of nature, the built environment and high technologies – and far more community spaces. They want to work from home, and many imagine new community centres where people of different professions can work individually but also share costs (and avoid loneliness). Imagine the savings in transport costs as well as greenhouse gas emissions. And time! Instead of expensive new infrastructure, creating flexible home­work­community­time options could save billions, not to mention no longer being stuck in traffic jams.

On a practical level, solid social science research demonstrates that cities can develop policies that enhance public health. For example in Australia, the Rockhampton 10,000 steps program has attempted to enhance the physical activity of citizens. Given the volumes of epidemiological evidence that show that regular physical activity promotes and improves health in endless ways, active health is a great best buy.

But it is not just physical health that planners are beginning to consider but psychological health. Research shows that green spaces in a city have a pronounced affect on the emotional health of residents, and the higher the biodiversity of green spaces, the more benefits. Thus, keeping green spaces helps in promoting physical and mental health. Enhancing green spaces can also reduce drought as there is considerable evidence that the suburban/strip mall model of development blocks billions of gallons of rainwater from seeping through the soil to replenish ground water (Tom Doggett, “Suburban Sprawl Blocks Water, Worsens U.S. Drought,” Aug 28, 2002, www.reuters.com).

As part of this rethinking of the city, planners are starting to see transport alternatives as being linked to community health. For example, we now know that air pollution is linked to heart disease, that is, clogged roads lead to clogged arteries (the amount of time spent in traffic increases the risk of heart disease. And if they do not design for health, most likely citizens who have been hospitalized will litigate against city officials for not designing cities for well­being.

NEW MEASUREMENTS

Fifth, nations, cities, corporations and non­governmental organizations are creating new ways of measuring their success. While earlier indicators of progress were all about the dollar, now triple bottom line measurements have taken off, and will continue to do so in the future. Instead of only measuring the single bottom line of profit, impacts on nature (sustainability) and on society (social inclusion) are becoming increasingly important, even in this financial crisis. One Australia city has even followed the example of Bhutan and developed a National Happiness index.

This enlargement of what counts as the bottom line is occurring because more and more evidence points to the fact that the economy rests on society which rests on nature. All three have to do well for us to survive and thrive, to move toward individual and collective happiness. Focus on one works in the short run but in the long run having a dynamic balance works best. Even the President of the European Commission, Manuel Barroso, has argued that it is time to go beyond GDP, as this traditional indicator only measures market activity, and not well­being. Says, Barroso, writing about GDP, “We cannot face the challenges of the future with the tools of the past.” Confirming this new approach, Hans­Gert Pöttering, the President of the European Parliament writes that: “well­being is not just growth; it is also health, environment, spirit and culture.” There are now even calls for spirituality to become the fourth bottom line.

PEER­-TO-­PEER AND SOCIAL NETWORKING

Sixth, while there are many benefits of the Information and Communication Technologies revolution, one of the key positive outcomes is the development of peer-­to­-peer power. Traditional hierarchical relations – top down models of relating to each other – are being challenged. And while it is far too early to say the dominator model of social relations will disappear in this generation, slowly over time there are indications that there will be far more balance in emerging futures. Hierarchy will become only one of the ways we engage with each other; the role of partnerships (through cooperatives) will continue to increase as new social technologies via the web make that possible. For example, already wikipedia has challenged traditional modes of knowledge authority. Websites such as kiva.org allow – though at a small level – direct person to person lending. This could have dramatic impacts on the big banks over time. Social peer­to­peer networking also reduces the ability of authoritarian states to use information communication technologies for surveillance benefits. Power moves from rigid hierarchies to far more fluid and socially inventive networks.

With more information available exponentially, the challenge will be to use information about our genome, our inner lives, and our localities in ways that empower and create harmony. New technologies such as the bodybugg and overtime health and eco­bots will help a great deal as they will give us immediate, interactive and tailored information on the futures we wish for (as does the newly invented smart toilet with its likely web links to http://asnu.com.au/viagra-online/ health providers. Health and eco­bots will be able to help us decide which products to buy (do they fit into my value structure, are they triple or quadruple bottom line), how much and how long to exercise and through social networking, enlist communities of support to help achieve desired futures.

HAPPINESS IS VIRAL

Seventh, finally, all the good news is infectious. Harvard social scientist Nicholas Christakis and his political­science colleague James Fowler at the University of California at San Diego argue “that emotions can pass among a network of people up to three degrees of separation away, so your joy may be [partly] determined by how cheerful your friends’ friends are, even if some of the people in this chain are total strangers to you. This means that health and happiness is not just created by individual behavior but by how they feed into the larger social network (Alice Park, “The Happiness Effect,” Time, Dec. 11, 2008). Happiness can be seen as viral; what the Indian mystic P.R. Sarkar has called the Microvita Effect.

All this does not mean we should dismiss attempts to transform social injustice but we need to appreciate how far we have come and focus on ways to improve material, intellectual and spiritual reality.

Positive steps forward can create more positive futures, for individuals and for societies.

Professor Sohail Inayatullah is a political scientist/futurist at the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University, Taiwan; and the Centre of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, Macquarie University, Sydney. He also an associate with Mt Eliza Executive Education, Melbourne Business School, where he co-teaches a bi-annual course titled, “Futures thinking and strategy development.”

Global Transformations and World Futures (Book Info, 2009)

Global Transformations and World Futures: Knowledge, Economy and Society, Vol 1 and 2 | Edited by Sohail Inayatullah | Oxford, EOLSS Publishers, 2009 | ISBN: 978–1–84826–666–7 (hard copy) | ISBN: 978–1–84826–216–4 (Adobe e-book Reader)

The overall structure of this Book is divided into three areas: (1) Global transformations in Knowledge: Social and Cultural issues. Issues such as the nature of global science, the challenge of building real communities in a virtual world, and the transition from an information economy to a communicative economy are explored. (2) The Global Economy. In this area, alternative definitions of globalization are developed – globalization as if the entire globe mattered – and the role of large players such as multinational are explored. Furthermore, globalization and development are linked, and the prospects for development in the South are evaluated. (3) World Futures. In this area, the theories and methods of the emerging discourse of Futures Studies are explored, particularly as applied to issues of gender and world futures; sustainable education; and, the futures of the United Nations.

The purpose for the development of this book has not changed over the past few years. Indeed, continued global transformation have made the analysis and articulate of world futures even more important. Most of the authors in this Book make the argument that humanity is at a juncture. While there are macro patterns that define what is possible in the next fifty or so years – trends in technology, structure of world power, for example – through human agency, transformations can be steered. Agency is possible and desirable. To discern how and where to influence the world system most wisely, maps of the future are required. My introductory chapter essentially maps the futures of humanity. The map has four dimensions. The first dimension is globalization. The second dimension is focused on foundational transformations in nature, truth, reality and Man. The third dimension develops scenarios of the future. These include the Globalized Artificial Society; the Communicative-Inclusive; The Continued Growth Business as Usual, and the Societal Collapse. The fourth dimension is an exploration of a preferred future – a post-globalization future.

Chapters:

  • Global transformations and world futures : knowledge, economy & society
  • Global transformations in knowledge : social and cultural issues
  • Global science
  • Non-Western science : mining civilizational knowledge
  • Global management of knowledge systems
  • Tranformations of information society
  • From the information era to the communicative era
  • Building “real” and “virtual” human communities in the 21st century
  • Navigating globalization through info-design, an alternative approach to understanding cyberculture
  • The global economy
  • Multinational corporations
  • Global movement of labor
  • The internet and political economy
  • Economics of transition
  • Global business ethics
  • Globalization as if the entire globe mattered : the situation of minority groups
  • Strategies to eradicate poverty : an integral approach to development
  • North-North, North-South, and South-South relations
  • World futures : trends and transformations in state, education and cultural ecology
  • Epistemology and methodology in the study of the future
  • The grand patterns of change and the future
  • Multilayered scenarios, the scientific method and global models
  • The futures of the United Nations and the world system
  • Globalization and information society-increasing complexity and potential chaos
  • Globalization, gender, and world futures
  • Neo-humanism, globalization, and world futures
  • Sustainable education : imperatives for a viable future
  • Financial resources policy and management : world economic order
  • International commodity policy : a new concept for sustainable development
  • Global sustainability : rhetoric and reality, analysis and action : the need for removal of a knowledge-apartheid world
  • Economic assistance to developing countries and sustainable world population
  • Capacity development and sustainable human development.

Access via publisher:

UNESCO in partnership with EOLSS [Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems]

 

Using the Future to Explore Visions of Globalization (2008)

By Sohail Inayatullah

This essay reviews globalization and its alternative futures. It does this drawing from the epistemological and methodological focus of futures studies. Thus the futures is visited in a disciplined fashion the hope of moving away from idiosyncratic “how I see the future” discourses. This means seeing the future not only in temporal space as forward time, that is, we are unable to remember the future, as we can the past, but to see the future as an asset, a resource.

We Discovered You! Alternative Futures for Asia (2006)

Sohail Inayatullah
www.metafuture.org
Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan, Adjunct Professor, University of the Sunshine Coast and associate, Queensland University of Technology

“The reported discovery of an accurate map of Asia by a 16th century Chinese explorer could create the context for Asia to transform its self-image, according to Professor Sohail Inayatullah of Tamkang University in Taipei and the University of the Sunshine Coast in Australia., Speaking at a meeting of Bristol-Myers Squibb in Singapore(January 7th, 2006), Dr Inayatullah said that the discovery of the map could change the future for Asia.”

www.theage.com.au

ASIAN FUSION

Is a new Asia emerging? Growth rates are important but the alleged discovery of a map showing that Chinese explorer, Zheng He knew of the new world – indeed, had a decent map of the entire world – strengthens the confidence of Asia, creates the possibility of cultural transformation.

While the map may be a forgery, its impact on the emergence of an Asia that can say Yes! to itself is pivotal. “We discovered you,” is the new story. Add this new confidence to the emerging reality of China and India joining the East Asian economic miracle and suddenly the future can look quite different.

A new fusion Asia – traditional but far flatter than Confucian (or Hindu, Muslim, buddhist) hierarchy – may indeed be possible. This Asia would continue to learn from others, but instead of only copying, it would see that innovation is the path forward. South Korea has already begun to heavily invest in the creative industries – connectivity through the eyes of the artist not just the corporate executive. And with South Korea having quickly moved up the ladder to near the top in new patents – joining Japan and the USA – new futures are indeed possible.

DIVIDED ASIA

However, along with the bright future of Asia Fusion is another scenario. This is Divided Asia. This scenario imagines continued conflicts between the two Koreas, between China and Japan, China and Taiwan, India and Pakistan, to mention just a few fault lines. Add to that corruption and mindless bureaucracy, tempered with hundreds of years of feudalism, and any bright future for Asia seems impossible.

The past few years of crisis provides testimony to this. The financial crisis, SARS, HIV, the tsunami, extremist Islamic terrorism all point to deep systemic problems. These cannot be solved merely by more efficiency but must be addressed by changes in worldview. Surveillance helped stop the SARS epidemic but now it is bird flu. Farming practices, certain diets, men searching for exotic foods to enhance sexual potency – all need to change in Asia. The pathologies of tradition must be transformed.

And yet it is in tradition wherein lies the future of Asia.

Meditation, yoga, tai-chi, feng shui, jain paradoxical logic, future generations thinking (life for our children’s children) all are part of the solution to a sustainable and transformed planet. After all, Grameen Bank’s micro lending program was a dramatic innovation and yet at the root of it was a depth understanding of community, the local village economy, and Muhammad Yunus’ realization that the dignity of the poor and their desire for a better material life were both necessary factors for change.

USED AND DISCARDED FUTURE

The last fifty years, however, has not been the story of the village economy but of the city. Asia has purchased the used and often discarded future of the West. Bigger buildings, endless shopping malls, designer clothes and the attendant problems of pollution, congestion (billion dollar problems) still seem unconnected to many Asian city planners. But with more and more evidence showing that car exhaust, the effects of suburbanization are bad for your heart, for your breathing and for your immune system generally, something has to give. It is western cities that are now looking for ways out, for a return to the garden city – the urban village – even as Asian mayors battle it out for the world’s tallest building (K.L. to Taipei to Shanghai to Dubai – is this Hegel’s geist but returned as a demon?). Some mayors in the West are even asking the age old question of what would a spiritual city look like? How can urban spaces be linked to green spaces to create a feeling of well-being and even invite the presence of the transcendental? Seoul, for example, to bring back nature, has just ripped up a huge chunk of motorway to open up its main river that had been covered over 50 years ago

SNAKES AND LADDERS

But many Asian cities continue the rise. And yet, along with the rise is the fall. Perhaps it is snakes and ladders that is the more appropriate image of the future. Hard work, capital, savings have led to the rise, but since the problems of patriarchy, environment, feudalism have not been resolved, the snake is next – the slippery road back to poverty. After all, it is still men who run things, still the male gaze that dominates, the environment is not yet respected and it is the big man who demands respect.

Underneath all this is worldview – karma. The future understood is that which the astrologer sees not that which we create. It is fear of disaster and not the imagination of a new future that holds sway. And the leader uses this fear to ensure that innovation does not become epidemic.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE

For Asia to transform – to avoid the problems of the endless rise, the second-hand future of the West; the grand divisions of politics and nations; and the fall of the snake- much needs to be changed. Here are some starting points.

1. Design cities that are green – that create community, that are soft on the earth, that recycle at every level (as per the work of Malaysian architect Ken Yeang) and even as they grow financially retain equity.
2. Move toward resource taxes in order to promote sustainability.
3. Transform bureaucracy from red tape to green tape – rules that help innovation –
Real innovation not just Poweroint presentations from representatives of the Ministry of Science and Technology (Asia has its own version of the Ministry of Funny Walks)
4. Move toward increasing cooperative enterprises of all sorts (academic coops, food coops, for example).
5. Globalizing but enhancing local and regional economies to protect local food, bio and cultural diversity.
6. Integrate consciousness technologies in education – meditation and yoga for primary and secondary schools, in government and certainly in business
7. Ensure that Asian leaders leave instead of staying way past their welcome – deep democracy, not just regular elections.
8. Heal the wounds of past genocides – thinking of desired future, not who was right or wrong – transcend peace solutions, as in South Africa. And, most importantly,
9. Create gender partnership – women and men working together.

If change can move in this direction then a new Asia is possible. If not, then it does not matter if Zheng He did discover the new world – he is not here now to create it.

But we are.

Which Identity for Australians? (2006)

By Sohail Inayatullah
Professor, Tamkang University, University of the Sunshine Coast and www.metafuture.org

What will happen to Australian identity? Can it transform, will new identities emerge,?

Some of Australia’s best and brightest convened at Melbourne Business School for a two day workshop (February 14-15) on the futures of Australian identity, as a lead up to the Australia Davos Future Summit.

Organized by Paul Hameister of the Future Summit, hosted by Dr. Robert Burke of Mt Eliza Centre for Executive Education and facilitated by Professor Sohail Inayatullah, the workshop explored and developed scenarios of the futures of Australian identity.

Globalisation, demographic changes, perceptions of loss of safety because of world terrorism, challenges to multiculturalism, demographic shifts, the possibility of pandemics, and dramatic new genomic, nanotechnology, energy, surveillance, brain/mind technologies all portend a disturbed world, a world in flux.

The meeting began with a showing of investigative comic Akmal Salleh’s (Compass, ABC TV) attempt to understand Australia Day. His conclusion was that Australia was in a process of becoming – tolerance, the laid back lifestyle, and different understandings of what it means to be Australian were the keys to identity sanity.

The workshop was strucured around Inayatullah’s methodology mapping the past (through the methodology of shared history); mapping the future (through the futures triangle); disturbing the future (through emerging issues analysis), deepening the future (through causal layered analysis) and transforming the future (through visioning and backcasting).

Three dimensions of the future provide the focus for the futures triangle, which in turn laid the groundwork for the scenarios. The three dimensions are the pull, or image of the future; the push of the present (quantitative drivers) and the weight of history, the barriers to change.

Lucky country:

The “Lucky Country” was the first image of identity that emerged. Identity here was based on the past – on the agricultural era. Resource riches have created this identity. Its driving metaphor? “She’ll be right.” However, participants questioned whether “She” would indeed be right. They felt that Australia was “selling the family silver”, and that, with policies that have not been gracious toward others (refugees, the weakest in society) participants felt that luck may be running out. Moreover this identity was overly passive, relying on what nature had given Australia, not what Australians could individually and collectively do to create a new future, a new identity.

Renewed past:

The second image was that of the “Renewed Past.” This was based on today’s leaders looking back at the 1950s as the ideal era. Anzac parades, identity linked to Mother England, strong male values were crucial here. Of course, as we continue to the future, the identity would be renewed through technology, but the white picket fence will remain. Nostalgia for the past, strong moral values and male leaders are pivotal to this future.

Participants did not think this uni-cultural image could lead Australia as women had too many barriers to achieve full equity in this future. More than renewing the past was required. This image was closer to the hearts of the veteran demographic groups and some baby boomers than these more youthful leaders.

Theme park:

The past is powerful resource. The third image was that of Australia theme parks. Identity here was disparate, fossilized yet respectful of multicultural Australia, but it is not dynamic. Each theme park, in this future, represents the many cultures that are Australia. Each theme park is used to bring in tourists from around the world. In this future, culture is the big seller, culture is the winner.

There was also discomfort in this “culture for sale future”. While media companies would do amazingly well in the postmodern future, participants were unsure if the image of the “Croc hunter” among other potentialities was the desired future.

“Lucky country,” “Renewed past” and “Theme park” were all past-based, focused on preserving rather than creating anew. They were also exclusive, attempting to protect in some way past traditions (resources, relationship to England, patriarchy and culture itself).

Contrasting futures were: “Innovative Oz,” “Glocal,” and “No identity.”

Innovative Oz:

“Innovative Oz” was certainly preferred. The image was that of the boxing kangaroo, having the capacity to meet any adversity. Indeed, it is adversity that brings out the best in Australians – they come together, they invent, they innovate, they create a new future. Global travel, early adoption of technology and social experimentation were all attributes of this future. Gender equity, embracing of the ways of knowing of other cultures are all attributes that help Australia stay innovative. Culture enhances science and technology, synergizing to create a unique country and people. Identity is both tough – the nerves of steel as exhibited by female and male sports heroes – and soft, open to others, desiring to learn from all so as to be best one can be.

Glocal:

But does this future go far enough, questioned some participants? They imagined an alternative future, that of the “Enlightened Australian” living in a Global and Local world. National identity was softer and duty to the planet and the locale stronger. The nation-state and states themselves were less important. Identity was Gaian, linked to the planet as whole and one’s own locale. The “cultural creatives” demographic group is the driver for this future. Sustainability, spiritual values, global governance were key values in this gentler future. Indigenous culture and spirituality were not external to identity but embraced at deep levels. Innovation emerges not just from science and technology but from ethics and integrity, from leadership doing the right thing (and thus keeping the luck-karma continuing).

But what would happen to those focused on the past, who need stability. How would they manage in this changing future? Would social cohesion be possible if localities began to use identity as a weapon against each other? Clearly, this future would only be possible if there were superordinate rules setting yup how localities organized in this global becoming.

No Aussie identity:

The question of all identities feeling at home in a rapidly changing world was even more salient in the last future – “No Aussie identity.” Because of economic globalization (movement of capital, goods, services and labour) national barriers break down. Identity can be with one’s transnational corporation or with one’s religion (the global ummah, for muslims, for example), with one’s website (as in Asiagroove.com) or with some other main identity.

This future, while embraced by a few participants, was disturbing for others. While they found the “glocal” self inspired and working for the collective, this new self was still considered selfish, putting self, company, religion, web community before nation. Those wedded to the past – lucky country and renewed past – would especially find this threatening. The sacrifices they had made in the last hundred years would amount to nothing, it was felt.

Beyond the scenarios

These images of the future were then tested using a range of different methods, including emerging issues analysis to discern how new technologies might change these futures.

The double variable scenario method was used to test if new futures would emerge. This method used inclusion and exclusion on one axis and stable and disturbed on the other axis. The images made a good fit with this analysis. Lucky country and renewed past were based on stable exclusionary worlds. Glocal was inclusionary and future oriented. Innovative Oz was based on future orientation but there would be some clear winners (the emerging knowledge economy and those who could adapt, whose identity was less rigid) and losers (those who yearned for the “gold old days.” The theme park future was past oriented and inclusionary, as all cultures were part of Australia, but in a ossified way. “No Australian identity” was extreme – inclusionary to those who could make the shift but excluding those who held on to the nation-state.

The preferred future

When participants voted on their preferred future, the loading was strong toward Innovative Oz and Glocal. Both involve the current identity to use the past – stories of meeting adversity as well as the values of respect for nature, respect for others – to create new futures. While the first creates the enlightened Australian, the second creates the enlightened global and local citizen.

Which future will become reality? Participants believed that any of these six futures was plausible. Which one becomes the actual reality is based on many factors, including which futures we decide to make come true. Next step is to road test these identities as scenarios, asking others what is missing, what is plausible.

But most important is what is preferred.

Which is your preferred future?

February 2006

Spirituality as the Fourth Bottom Line (2005)

Sohail Inayatullah, Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine Coast University, Queensland University of Technology – www.metafuture.org

Invariably, at the end of a lecture on paradigm change, new visions or community capacity, there is always some one in the audience who asks: but what is the bottom line? This is especially so at technical universities and business organizations.

The “bottom line” question asserts that argument, visions and language display are all interesting but ultimately unimportant. What is important is what can be counted, that which leads to economic wealth: measurability and profit.  Related is the challenge to the capacity to transform, that is the world is considered a tough place and only ego-maximizing real politics (money and territory) is possible – everything else is illusion.

For any speaker focused on gender, community, health, cultural or spiritual issues suddenly there is very little to say, since, well, it is not about the bottom line but everything else. The audience walks away save for a few who are thrilled and desire to save the world, either through community building, learning meditation, or recycling bottles.

Times have changed

In Australia, Westpac Bank recently issued an expanded approach to traditional accountability standards. They now measure their progress through three criteria: prosperity, social justice and environment. Their recent corporate report (www.westpac.com.au) includes claims of ethical business, transparency, human rights, environmental concerns, caring for employees, and more.  Suddenly the bottom line is not so simple – it has become the triple bottom line. Organizations have their own interests – profit, survival – but as well they live in a local and global community, and are increasingly being forced to become accountable to them.  These demands by shareholder groups and social movements have led to the need for social justice and social measures. And organizations and communities live with and in a natural world, and believe that they have a responsibility toward planetary sustainability – environment is no longer something out there for others to solve, an economic externality, rather, it has become defining for the success of an organization.

The triple bottom line movement has taken off. Indeed, 45% of the world’s top companies publish triple bottom line reports.[i]  This change has not come about because of the graciousness of organizations but because of a variety of other reasons. First, changing values among stakeholders (and, indeed, the notion that multiple stakeholders define the organization, not just stockholders, but employees, managers, the larger community, and the environment itself!). Employees desire an organization that they can be proud of. Along with profit, organizations are expected to consider human rights, evaluate their impact on the environment, and on future generations. Jennifer Johnston of Bristol-Myers Squibb writes: “Work is such a large part of life that employees increasingly want to work for organizations which reflect their values, and for us, it’s also an issue of attracting and retaining talent.”[ii]

Second, CEOs are part of this value shift.  This has partly come about because of internal contradictions – heart attacks, cancer and other lifestyle diseases – and because of looking outside their windows and seeing angry protestors, often their children. It has also come out because of external contradictions, stock prices falling because of investor campaigns. As well, ethical investments instruments, as with Calvert, championed by alternative economist, Hazel Henderson, have done well. Moreover, as John Renesch argues, leaders and organizations themselves are becoming more conscious – self-aware and reflective (www.renesch.com). We are moving from the command-control ego-driven organization to the learning organization to a learning and healing organization. Each step involves seeing the organization less in mechanical terms and more in gaian living terms. The key organizational asset becomes its human assets, its collective memory and its shared vision.

Even nations are following suite. Bhutan has developed a gross happiness index. While OECD nations have not gone this far, the UK is taking happiness seriously. “In the UK, the Cabinet Office has held a string of seminars on life satisfaction … [publishing] a paper recommending policies that might increase the nation’s happiness (wwww.number-10.gov.uk/su/ls/paper.pdf). These include quality of life indicators when making decisions about health and education, and finding an alternative to gross domestic product as a measure of how well the country is doing – one that reflects happiness as well as welfare, education and human rights.”[iii] There are even journals (www.kluweronline.com/issn/1389-4978) and professors of happiness.

Happiness thus becomes an inner measure of quality of life, moving away from the quantity of things. As nations move to postmodern economies, other issues are becoming more important, among them is the spiritual. It is ceasing to be associated with mediums or with feudal religions, but about life meaning, and about ananda, or the bliss beyond pleasure and pain.

But where there may be a subtle shift toward the spiritual, can it become the 4th bottom line? We certainly don’t see stakeholders holding long meditations outside of corporate offices and government buildings? And writes Johnston, “Corporations are already challenged trying to incorporate social indicators.”[iv] Certainly, more measurement burdens should not be the purpose of a fourth bottom line. It must be deeper than that.

By spiritual we mean four interrelated factors.1. A relationship with the transcendent, generally seen as both immanent and transcendental. This relationship is focused on trust, surrender and for Sufis, submission. 2. A practice, either regular meditation or some type of prayer (but not prayer where the goal is to ask for particular products or for the train to come quicker). 3. A physical practice to transform or harmonize the body – yoga, tai chi, chi kung, and other similar practices. 4. Social – a relationship with the community, global, or local, a caring for others.[v] This differs from a debate on whose God, or who is true and who is false, to an epistemology of depth and shallow with openness and inclusion toward others.

Thus, there are two apparently external factors – the transcendental and the social (but of course, the transcendent and social are both within) and two internal factors – mind and body (of course, external as well and interdependent).

Are there any indicators that spirituality can become a bottom line? There are two immediate issues. First, can the immeasurable be measured? I remember well the words of spiritual master, P.R. Sarkar on the nature of the transcendent – it cannot be expressed in language[vi] – that is, it cannot be measured. There are thus some clear risks here. By measuring we enter tricky ground. We know all attempts to place the transcendent in history have led to disasters, every collectivity that desires empire evokes God, claiming that “He” has bestowed “His” grace on them. Languaging the Transcendent more often than not leads to genderizing, and thus immediately disenfranchises half the world’s population. Along with the problem of patriarchy, comes the problem of caste/class, elite groups claiming they can best interpret the transcendental. The transcendent becomes a weapon, linguistic, political, economic; it becomes a source of power and territory, to control.

And yet, this is the nature of our world. All concepts can be utilized as such, especially, profound ones. The key, as Ashis Nandy[vii] points out, is that there be escape ways from our visions – that contradictions are built into all of our measures and that we need competing views of the spiritual, lest it become official.

Taking a layered view might thus be the most appropriate way to consider measuring the immeasurable. Using the metaphor of the iceberg of spirituality, the tip of the iceberg of could be measurable, as that is the most visible. A bit deeper are the social dimensions of the spiritual – community caring, even group meditations, shared experiences. – the system of spirituality. This too can be evidenced. Deeper is the worldview of spirituality – ethics, ecology, devotion, multiple paths, transcendence – and deepest is the mythic level, the mystical alchemy of the self. As we go deeper, measurement becomes more problematic, and the deepest is of course impossible to measure.

Is there any evidence that spirituality as an issue is gaining in interest? There appears to be. As anecdotal personal experience, workshop after workshop (in Croatia, Pakistan, Malaysia, Australia, Thailand, Germany, Taiwan, New Zealand, Hawaii, for example) the spiritual future comes out as desirable.[viii] It is generally constructed as having the following characteristics. 1. Individual spirituality. 2. Gender partnership or cooperation. 3. Strong ecological communities. 4. Technology embedded in society but not as the driver. 5. Economic alternatives to capitalism. 6. Global governance.

Of course, other futures also emerge, particularly that of societal collapse and that of “global tech” – a digitalized, geneticized, abundant and globally governed world.

Interestingly, the spiritual (gaian) vision of the future confirms the qualitative and quantitative research work of Paul Ray and Sherry Anderson. They document a new phenomena, the rise of the cultural creatives.  This new group of people challenge the modernist interpretation of the world (nation-state centric, technology and progress will solve the day, environment is important but security more so) and the traditional view of the world (strong patriarchy, strong religion, and strong culture, agriculture based and derived). Ray and Anderson go so far as to say that up to 25% of those in OECD nations now subscribe to the spiritual/eco/gender partnership/global governance/alternative to capitalism position (www.culturalcreatives.org). However, they clearly state that cultural creatives do not associate themselves a a political or social movement. Indeed, they represent a paradigm change, a change in values.

It is this change in values that Oliver Markley, Willis Harmon and Duane Elgin and others have been spearheading (www.owmarkley.org). They have argued that we are in between images. The traditional image of “man” as economic worker (the modernist image) has reached a point of fatigue, materialism is being questioned. Internal contradictions (breakdown of family, life style diseases) and external contradictions (biodiversity loss, global warming) and systemic contradictions (global poverty) lead to the conclusion that the system cannot maintain its legitimacy. The problem, especially for the rich nations, has become a hunger for meaning and a desire for the experience of bliss.

There is data that confirms that materialism does not lead to happiness. “One study, by Tim Kasser of Knox College in Galesburg, Illinois, found that young adults who focus on money, image and fame tend to be more depressed, have less enthusiasm for life and suffer more physical symptoms such as headaches and sore throats than others (The High Price of Materialism, MIT Press, 2002).”[ix] Indeed, Kasser believes that advertising, central to the desire machine, should be considered a form of pollution, and be taxed or advertisers should be forced to include warning messages that materialism can damage one’s health.

Spirituality, while enhancing, economic productivity, social connectivity, inner and outer health, should not be confused with economic materialism or indeed any type of materialism (even the spiritual variety, that is, collecting gurus, mantras, or using the spiritual to accumulate ego).

Spirituality and educational-life transformation

However, the emerging image of cultural creatives may not have enough staying power as it is largely associated with the baby boomer generation.[x] While the  spiritual is linked to health, it is yet to be linked to economic prosperity/justice and social inclusion. Spiritual practices often lead to an escape from the material world. Moreover, the languaging of the spiritual remains nationalistic or groupist, and not neo-humanistic (ie outside of the dogma of class, varna, nation and gender)

But as Sarkar has argued, a new theory of economy would make the spiritual central (www.anandamarga.org). This is partly evidenced by reports from the TM organization (www.tm.org), which documents hundreds of scientific studies claiming increased IQ, productivity and even increased community peace. But for Sarkar, spiritual practices lead to clarity. It is this clarity, argues Ivana Milojevic,[xi] which can enhance productivity. Most of our time is spent uncertain of our mission, uncertain as to how to do what we need to do. Spiritual practices allow clarity of intent (and a slowing of time) thus enhancing productivity. Sarkar’s model of political-economy, PROUT, is based on this – increasingly using intellectual and spiritual resources for the good of all. Of course, along with the progressive use of resources is a clear ceiling and floor of wealth – a progressively linked top and bottom.

However, educator Marcus Bussey (www.metafuture.org) argues that the pedagogy of meditation must be stage-like. Schools clearly should not push spirituality for productivity purposes. Primary, is the creation of a more balanced, integrated and holistic individual and community. Children have dreamlike phases in their development and these should be supported, not quickly framed in bottom-line language. Of course, as they move to adulthood, then work practices and outcomes should benefit from regular spiritual practices and approaches. One measure or approach cannot be the same for all.

Part of the challenge in the future is to transform our template of our life itself. Currently it is: birth, student, work, retirement and death. In the Indian system, it is student, householder, service to society and then monk. In a spiritual model, spirituality would travel through all these stages. As well, “studenthood” would never terminate but rather continue one’s entire life – true life long learning.  In addition, the worker phase would be forever, transformed to mission, doing what is most important, and into life long earning. Service to society as well would be daily, finding some way, every day, to contribute to others. Thus, seeing spirituality as the fourth bottom line means transforming the foundational template we have of our lifecycle. This is especially crucial as the aging of society changes our historically stable age pyramid.

Health changes

The rise of the spiritual paradigm comes as well from the health field. This is partly as the contradictions of modern man are in the health area – civilizational diseases are rampant, and not just from lifestyle but from structure. A recent study reports that city design as in suburbanization is directly related to obesity, and thus cancer/heart disease rates.[xii] Thus the paradigm of modernity – the big city outlook, faster – becomes the site of weakness, and transformation.

As a sign of public acceptance, the August 4, 2003 issue of Time Magazine is titled “The Science of Meditation.” “Meditation is being recommended by more and more physicians as a way to prevent, slow or at least control the pain of chronic diseases”[xiii]

An article in the Medical Journal of Australia finds that over 80% of general practitioners in Victoria have referred patients to alternative therapies, 34% are trained in meditation, 23% acupuncture and 20% herbal medicine. Of particular interest is that nearly all GPs agreed that the federal government should fund/subsidize acupuncture, 91% believe hypnosis should be, and 77% believe meditation should be government funded, and  93% believe that meditation should be part of the undergraduate core medical curriculum[xiv] Doctors, of course, only accept practices of which there is an evidence-base. And meditation continues to build an impressive evidence base. A recent study, reports Time magazine, shows that “women who meditate and use guided imagery have higher levels of the immune cells known to combat tumors in the breast”[xv] Even near American president, Al Gore meditates. So, does the evidence stick at the “bottom” of society, with meditation leading to decreased recidivism among prisoners

Grand Patterns

For those who study macrohistory, the grand patterns of change, this is not surprising. Modernity has brought the nation-state, stunning technology, material progress but the pendulum has shifted so far toward sensate civilization that it would be surprising if the spiritual as a foundational civilizational perspective did not return. In this sense, spirituality as fourth bottom line should not be seen as selling to global corporatopia but in fact ensuring that the pendulum does not take us back to medieval times but spirals forward. This means keeping the scientific, inclusionary, mystical parts of spirituality but not acceding to the dogmatic, the sexist, the feudal dimensions. That is, all traditions grow up in certain historical conditions, once history changes, there is no need to keep the trappings, the message remains important but there is no need to retreat to a cave.

It is also not surprising that it is gender that defines cultural creatives. Modernity has been defined by male values as were earlier eras, there is likely gender dialectic at work. Patriarchy has reached its limits. It is often those outside the current system who are the torch bearers for the new image of the future. In this case, gender is crucial. Of course, the system remains patriarchy laden. Individuals may change but the system, for example, city design, remains faulty.

However, the triple bottom line, and spirituality as the fourth, may be a way to start to change the system so that it is spiritual-friendly, instead of ridiculing and marginalizing it. This could be the very simple use of Feng Shui to a rethinking of shopping to suburban planning. And, individuals want this change. Philip Daffara in his research on the future of the Sunshine Coast reports that over 30% desire a Gaian coast – a living coast where technology and spirit are embedded in the design and policies of the area. Others preferred the triple bottom line sustainability model and the linked villages model. Only a few percent still desire business as usual.[xvi]

The evidence does point to a desire for a spiritual future, throughout the world. Indeed, sociologist Riaz Hussain writes that this complicated matters for Al-Quaeda. They become even more radicalized as the Islamic world is in the process of a religious revival.[xvii] However, religiousity is not necessarily spirituality. They overlap. But one is exclusive, text-based only and generally closed to other systems and worldviews. The spiritual is not linked to race or nation. However, it is certainly the deeper part of every religion.

For spirituality to become part of the global solution it will have to become transmodern, moving through modernity, not rejecting the science and technology revolution and the Enlightenment, nor acceding to postmodernity (where all values and perspectives are relativised) or the premodern (where feudal relations are supreme).

Measures

But for spirituality to become associated with the quadruple bottom line, the bottom line will be finding measures. Measuring the immeasurable will not be an easy task.

We need to ensure that measures match the four dimensions – transcendental, mind practice, body practice, and relationship, the neo-humanistic dimension of inclusion, an expanded sense of identity.

Measurements as well would need to be layered, touching on the easiest and obvious – the ice berg metaphor – physical practices (% in a locale engaged in regular meditation or disciplined prayer) to systemic measurements (city design) to worldview ones (neo-humanism as demonstrated in educational textbooks). Of course, this is for spirituality generally, for organizations, we would need measures that showed the movement from the command-control model to the learning organization model, to a vision of a living, learning and healing, conscious organization.

What are some potential indicators (explored further by Marcus Bussey in this issue). There are positive indicators such as well-being, happiness (qualitative measures) and negative ones (far easier to collect). Death by lifestyle diseases to measure worldview and system contradictions. Suicide indicators to measure societal failure.  Hate crime indicators and bullying in schools and organizations that help us understand levels of inclusion. Cooperative growth, looking at economic partnership, at new models of economy. Cigarette consumption. Treatment of animals (wider ethics).These are just a few. This is not an easy process at any level. For example, some believe that enhanced spirituality in itself can lead to reduction in automobile fatalities ( http://www.tm.org/charts/chart_48.html) However, I would argue that it is not driver education per se but changing the nature of transportation. However, I am sure those making the meditation = decrease in car accidents would argue that there is less road rage, more clarity, less drunken driving.

One way to move toward indicators is to ask foundational questions of society or organization. These would include: 1. is the organization/society neo-humanistic (that is, expanding identities beyond nation-state, race, religion and even humanism)? 2. Is there a link between the highest and lowest income, that is, are they progressively related, as the top goes up, does the bottom go up as well. 3. Is the prosperity ratio rational, especially in terms of purchasing capacity for the bottom? 4. Does gender, social and environmental inclusion go beyond representation (number of women or minorities on a leadership board) to include ways of knowing (construction time, significance, learning, for example)? 5. does the leadership of the organization demonstrate through example the spiritual principle (and the other three bottom lines)?

Finally, there is an additional challenge. In spiritual life there can be dark nights of the soul, where one wrestles with one’s own contradictions – it is this that cannot be measured, nor can the experience of Ananda. However, after the experience of bliss, there is the issue of translating, of creating a better world.

Even with a world engulfed by weapons sales, by killing, even in a world of rampant materialism, of feeling less, of unhappiness, even in communities beset by trauma, what is clear is that the spiritual is becoming part of a new world paradigm of what is real, what is important. What is needed is a debate on indicators that can evaluate this new paradigm in process.

[i] Lachlan Colquhoun, “Corporate Social Responsibility,” Silverkris, August 2003, 57.

[ii] Ibid, 57.

[iii] Michael Bond, “The pursuit of happiness,” New Scientist (4 october 2003), 40.

[iv] Email, October 3, 2003.

[v] Riane Eisler argues in The Power of Partnership that this caring for others is central to creating a partnership spirituality – with nature, society, family, and self. “Partnership spirituality is both transcendent and immanent. It informs our day-to-day lives with caring and empathy. It provides ethical and moral standards for partnership relations as alternatives to both lack of ethical standards and the misuse of “morality” to justify oppression and violence.” Eisler, The Power of Partnership, Novato, New World Library, 2003, 185.

[vi] Sohail Inayatullah, Situating Sarkar. Maleny, Gurukul, 1999 and Understanding Sarkar. Leiden, Brill, 2002.

[vii] Ashis Nandy, Traditions, Tyranny and Utopias. Delhi, Oxford University Press, 1987.

[viii] For more on this, see reports and articles at www.metafuture.org and www.ru.org

[ix] Michael Bond, “The pursuit of happiness,” 43.

[x] And the research is far from established!

[xi] Personal Comments, August 2003

[xii] Reid Ewing et al, “Relationship between Urban Sprawl and Physical Activity, Obesity and Morbidity,” The Science of Health Promotion, Vol, 18, No. 1, 2003.

[xiii] Joel Stein, “Just say Om, Time, 4 August 2003, 51.

[xiv] Marie V. Pirotta, March M Cohen, Vicki Kotsirilos and Stephen J Farish, Complementary therapies: have they become accepted in general practice? MJA 2000; 172: 105-109.

[xv] Op cit, Time, 55.

[xvi] Sohail Inayatullah, Scanning for City Futures. Brisbane, Brisbane City Council, 2002.

[xvii] See Hasan’s Faithlines: Muslim Conceptions of Islam and Society. Oxford University Press – forthcoming.

An Alternative View of the Futures of South Asia (2003)

Steps to a Confederation

Sohail Inayatullah

Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan and Sunshine Coast University, Australia

www.metafuture.org

October 11, 2003

While we are all aware why we do not have peace in south asia, there is a paucity of explorations on how to create a better future.  The lack of peace defined as both individual peace (inner contentment), social-psychological peace (how we see the Other), structural peace (issues of justice, particularly territorial justice) and epistemological peace (toward a plurality of ways of knowing) are among the major factors contributing to poverty in south asia. Government expenditures in each nation, especially India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka go for military purposes and not for education or health.  Every time a positive economic cycle begins, yet one more confrontation sends military expenditures higher.  Few, except military leaders and a few corporations (mostly foreign), benefit from this escalation. Indeed, the entire system is now war based, from the military-industrial complex to the worldview of citizens and leaders.

Lack of Visions

Part of the reason for this vicious cycle of confrontation and poverty is because South Asia has been unable to move outside of colonial and partition (or liberation) categories.  Conceptual travel outside of British influence is difficult and cultural, economic, military and psychological colonialism and categories of thought remain in south asian internal structures and representations of the self.

Intellectuals in south asia also do not help matters, in fact, we are often part of the problem.  Focused on historical investigations and mired in feudal social relations, academic discourse, in general, and the future, in particular, has become fugitive and, when apprehended, made trivial.  This is largely because of the style, content and structure of south asian intellectual/State relations.  By and large administered by the civil service, appeasing the chief minister (as evidenced by the center stage of the minister at book launchings and public lectures) is far more important than independent intellectual inquiry. It is the State that gives academic discourse legitimacy, since it is the State that has captured civil society.  The paucity of economic, social and political resources for the Academy exacerbates, if not causes, this situation. Social sciences remain undeveloped.

Nation, State and Real Politics

Colonial history has produced an overarching paradigm that even the interpreters of the hadith and Vedanta must relinquish their authority to.  This is the neo-realist model of International Relations and National Development. Caught in a battle of ego expansion, of self-interest, nations function like self-interested egoistic individuals. Economic development can only take place at the national level with communities absent from participation. Thus making peace at local levels impossible.  Security is defined in terms of safety from the aggressor neighboring nation, not in terms of local access to water, technology and justice. Only real politics with hidden motives behind every actor and action makes sense in this neo-realist discourse. The task then for most is explaining the actions of a nation or of functionaries of the State.  Envisioning other possibilities for “nation” or “state” and their interrelationships, that is, the assumptions that define what is considered eligible for academic discourse remains unattempted, thus the absence of communities, non-governmental organizations, class and other transnational categories such as gender from the realm of what is considered important.  Moreover, structural analysis such as center/periphery theory (a step beyond conspiracy theory) is intelligible but only with respect to the West not with respect to internal structures.  Finally, visions of the future, attempts to recreate the paradigm of international relations, strategic studies and development theory through women studies, world system research, historical social change analysis, peace studies, participatory action research or the social movements are considered naive and too idealistic.   Worse, it is believed that this naivete and idealism threatens security on the home front. Thus it is fine if class and gender are issues that challenge mainstream politics in the neighboring nation but not in “our perfect country.”  What results thus is at best static peace – that is the diplomatic accomodation of official differences and not what Prout founder, P.R. Sarkar calls, sentient peace, or the creation of a mutual ecology of destiny based on shared moral principles.

However even with the dominance of real-politics, idealism does exist, but, in the quest for modernity it has been marginalized.  Visions remain limited to evening prayer or meditation, for personal peace, but they have no place in politics or structural peace, except at the level of the State which uses religious practices to buttress its own power and control over competing classes, that is, it appropriates vision into its own strategic discourse.

Again, the dominance of neo-realism and the loss of mutual trust can be explained by many variables. The most important of them is the event of partition – the alleged break from colonialism -that has dominated intellectual efforts. With more than a generation of mistrust, hate and fear, creating alternative futures, not dominated by the partition discourse is indeed challenging. The disappointment of post-colonial society has worn heavy on the south asian psyche – betrayals by leaders and calls for more sacrifices from the people for yet another promised plan is unlikely to transform the weight of the past and the abyss of the present.  The future that we have arrived at to is not the final destination for south asia, it is a dystopia.  As Faiz has written[i], “The time for the liberation of heart and mind has not come yet. Continue your arduous journey. This is not your destination.”

Possible Strategies

Given this history, what are some possible strategies outside of the partition and nation-state discourse.  And how can social movements and others desiring a different future help in these strategies, in creating new visions and realities for south asia.

The short run strategy social movements would be to attempt to encourage peaceful citizen to citizen meetings between Bangladeshis, Sri Lankans, Pakistanis and Indians. Their effort in creating links between intellectuals, writers and artists across national boundaries would be critical in such efforts.  Unfortunately south asian intellectuals are often beholden to the bureaucracy. Rarely are they independent.  Moreover, in general, intellectuals tend to adopt nationalistic lines seeing history only from a nationalistic perspective, thinking that the other nation’s history is propaganda and one’s own nation’s historiography is the real objective truth. This has worsened in recent times with the rise of the BJP in India and of rightist Islamic parties.

Intellectuals who have left the “homeland” for the West are not immune from this intellectual cancer. While south asians may unite in critique of the West, when it comes to the homefront, they remain attached to nation. Religion as well has increasingly become a weapon of identity, used not to create a higher level of consciousness but to distance from the other.  In this sense, the neo-humanist mind and paradigm has yet to emerge. Instead, identity is based on geographical sentiments, national sentiments and religious sentiments.

The recent war in Afghanistan has further hardened identity, forcing individuals to be either, especially in Pakistan, strict muslims or western oriented. Layered identity, that is, we are primarily human beings, and secondary national citizens or members of a particular religion, is more difficult to achieve. Indeed, as Marcus Bussey (www.metafuture.org) has argued, neo-humanism should not be seen solely as a theory but as a practice. We must live day to day through neo-humanism, asking ourselves, how in our conversations, our views, our teaching of children do we recreate historical identities, or help create inclusive identities.

Nonetheless, it is imperative that we find ways to encourage citizen to citizen interaction through sports, arts, music and literature, to begin with. To do this, of course, there needs to be travel between the various south asian nations.  However given the intervention of each nation in the Other: Pakistan in India; India in Sri Lanka; and given secession movements in each country, suspicion is natural and travel difficult.  Normalization of borders when the nation-state is under threat appears unlikely especially as violence has become routine in local and national politics.

One way out of this is to begin to focus on ideal futures instead of dis-unifying pasts; that is, instead of asking who actually attacked who or should Kashmir be part of Pakistan or India or independent we need to practice compassion and forgiveness towards the other, to not see the gaining of territory as central to the national and personal ego.  What is needed are meetings among artists, intellectuals, and even bureaucrats to stress areas and points of unity–sufis who are hindu; yogis who are sufi, for example. We need to remember stories of how difference has led to mutual benefit, to glorify how intimacy with the other can create sources of cultural vitality. The usefulness in this citizen to citizen contact is that it will build amity among people who feel the other is distant, who fear the Other.  While citizen to citizen contact did not markedly change US or Soviet policy towards each other, it did create peace forces in each nation, that created dissension when governments insisted on arguing that the other nation was the evil empire.  Citizen to citizen contact ideally will develop into contact between non-governmental organizations that are committed to same ideals: serving the poor, empowering women, caring for the environment, for example.

The nuclear tests in Pakistan and India have led to numerous exchanges between Indians and Pakistanis, largely through the medium of the internet–a dynamic loose association called south asians against nukes has taken off. It intends to lobby governments in both countries to take steps to develop conversations of peace, of shared futures, as well as to set in place fail safe measures to avoid nuclear accidents and provocation by nationalists on all sides.

But most important is not specific issues but the hope that these NGOs may be able to strengthen civil society in each nation thus putting some pressure on politicians to choose more rational strategies, strategies that place humans and the environment ahead of geo-sentiments and geo-politics.  Currently the politician who wants to negotiate with the leader of the other nation is forced to take hard-line aggressive policies (“we will never give up Kashmir or we will never give up nuclear power”) lest he or she lose power to the Opposition. By having a transnational peace, ecological, service movement pressuring each nation’ leaders they will have more room to negotiate and pursue policies that benefit the collective good and security of the region.

Of course, NGOs can as well distort local civil society, as they are financed by external sources. Trade associations, professional groups and other forms of community need as well to be activated along these neo-humanist lines.

While it would be ideal to reduce the likelihood of local leaders to pursue aggressive/nationalistic strategies most likely positive change, paradoxically enough, will come from the globalizing forces of privatization.  Irrespective of how privatization harms labor and small business, it does create a wave of faith in the emerging bourgeois, who in their search for profits are transnational.  The rational ceases to be the nation but the profit motivation.  Profit motivation might begin the process of increased trade, and commercial contacts between the various nations of the south asian region. For Capital, mobility, the free flow of borders is the key to its expansion.  Historical feuds only limit its accumulation. For south asia, unless there are increased economic ties then the capital that accumulates because of privatization will largely go to overseas destinations, Tokyo and New York.  Beginning the process of developing a south asian economic sphere, even it is created by those who have little concern for the environment and for social justice, in the long run will help create more peaceful futures for the region. At the level of the person, business men and women who have to make deals will have to face each other, will have to see that they have common interests. Moreover, they will not be branded as spies by opportunistic political leaders since business can always claim they are only working for national productivity. Of course, , creating economic and cultural vitality through social/peoples’ movements, particularly the cooperative movement, or increasing the rights of labor throughout south asia is even more important – it is creating a more fair society, not the rise of the bourgois that is crucial.

In the meantime, labor, unfortunately, has far less mobility than capital.  Labor leaders who are transnational will certainly be branded as unpatriotic, in fact, in contrast to business leaders, labor leaders will be seen as spies who are attempting to stifle national growth.  Arguing for local economic democracy by contesting the power of the federal bureaucracy and outside economic interests will also not beholden social movements to the power of government and capital. Indeed, decentralization will be misconstrued for secession, in some cases.

However, we can hope that at the regional level as the Other becomes less distant or because of the pressure of external forces, we can envision a time when national policy leaders meet to create a south asian confederation of sorts.  To develop such a larger south asian trade association or confederation, there needs to be agreement or negotiation in the following areas.

Areas of Negotiation

1.         Water regime. The problems here are associated with the use of water for the short term instead of the long term, for the benefit of the few at the expense of the many.  Should water become a joint resource then?

2.         Human rights regime.  The problems in reaching agreement in this area should be obvious since each will claim that the other violates human rights while it has a perfect record.  Action from global human rights associations can help create pressure on local levels. Human rights will need to focus not just on individual rights but the right to purchasing capacity. The right to religion and language will also have to be central in any human rights regime.  We must remember that the debate on human rights in Asia is about expanding the Western notion of liberal individual rights to include economic rights and collective rights. It is not about the restriction of rights but their augmentation.

3.         Nuclear non-proliferation.  This is problematic since India believes that it has to fear China as well as Pakistan.  China sees itself as a global power and thus will not agree to any nuclear agreement, especially given the inequitable structure of the present global nuclear and arms regime.  However, nuclear proliferation promises, as with the US-USSR case, to bankrupt first one nation and then the other – Pakistan is already on the verge of financial calamity.  Given the lack of safety of nuclear installations, it might take a meltdown before some agreement is reached.  Pakistan believes that it must have a dramatic deterrent since it believes most Indians have yet to truly accept partition, independence. Indeed, Indians generally see Pakistanis as double traitors, first for having converted from hinduism to Islam and second for having carved Pakistan from India.

4.         UN peacekeeping forces in troubled areas.  This step while impinging on national sovereignty could ease tensions throughout south asia.  For one, it recognizes that there is a crisis that the leaders of each nation, particularly Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and India, have failed to resolve.  Will we see blue helmets throughout south asia in the near future?  However, peacekeeping should be not restricted to weaponed officers but rather should include community builders–therapists and healers. Recent breakthroughs in Sri Lanka have partly come about through intervention of mediators from Norway. This external peace building as been essential in moving Sri Lanka from its abyss.

5.         Regional conferences at Cabinet level.  While governments often obscure truth, more meetings might begin a thawing process and, unfortunately, if not properly structured, they might further reinscribe half-truths and vicious stereotypes of the Other.  Still, meetings on specific points where there is a great chance of agreement are a great place to begin. Start slow, reach agreement, and build from there, would be a place to begin.

6.         Regional conferences of ngos (environmental groups, feminist groups, peace movement, universal spiritual groups, artists, human rights activists).  This is even more important as it helps build relationships among like-minded individuals who are tired of the symbolic efforts of their own governments, who crave a different south asia.

While all these steps begin the process, the long run strategy would be to encourage a rethinking of identity and an alternate economic and political structure.

Long Term Steps

The long terms steps would be:

1.                  Denationalize self, economy and identity.  This the larger project of delinking the idea of the nation, whether India or Pakistan, from our mental landscape and replacing it with more local–community–and global concepts, that of the planet itself.

2.                  Essentially this means a rewriting of textbooks in south asia. Moving away from the neo-realist real politics paradigm and toward the neo-humanist educational perspective. This means rewriting history as well rethinking the future.

3.         Create Peoples’ movements centered on bioregions and linguistic and cultural zones, that is, begin the process of rethinking the boundaries of south asia along lines other than those that were hammered out by Indian political parties and the British in the early half of this century. This is Sarkar’s notion of samaj movements.

4.         Encourage self-reliance and localism in each zone.  While trade is central between nations and the economic zones, it should not be done at the expense of the local economy.  This is not say that poor quality products should be encouraged, rather on non-essential items there should be competition. The State should not give preferential treatment to a few businesses at the expense of others.

5.         Barter trade between zones is one way to stop inflation.  In addition, it leads to a productive cycle between zones, especially helping poorer zones increase wealth.  These will especially be useful given the upcoming world recession or depression.

6.         Encourage universal dimensions of the many religions and cultures of the area. While this is much easier said than done, it means that individuals have a right to religious expression with the role of the State that of ensuring non-interference from local, national and regional leaders who desire to use religion and its strong emotive content to gain votes.

7.         Develop legal structures that can ensure the respect of the rights of women, children, the aged and the environment. The latter is especially important given that environmental issues are transnational. Indeed, the disastrous climatic after effects of recent nuclear explosions show that the environment is a genuine global rights issue. Eventually, while this is a long way off, we need to consider the creation of an Asian International Court.

8.         Transparency.  Governmental decisions need to be open. Ideally meetings should be televised. Promises made by politicians need to become legal documents so that citizens groups can initiate litigation against corruption and mis-information. The same level of transparency should be expected for corporations as well as ngos.

What this means is that we need visions of the future of south asia that are not based on communal violence but are based on the possibility of dynamic peaceful coexistence – what P.R. Sarkar has called, prama.  The task while seemingly impossible must begin with a few small steps, of Indians and Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Sri Lankans, Nepalese and Bhutanese and other historical groups in south asia finding ways to realize some unity amongst all our differences.

The challenge is to use local categories but not within traditional frames, ie to move through the traditional and the modern to a transmodern.

Future generations will remember that there were those that did not accede to narrow sentiments, that kept alive the idea of south asia as an historical civilization, and thus managed to transcend its Indian birth to become a true universal movement.  Let us begin together to create a new history for future generations.

Certainly with the day-to-day violence through south asia, whether Gujrat or Kashmir, it is difficult to imagine a better future. But by staying within current identities and politics, we doom future generations to poverty. When will we choose otherwise?

[i].          Quoted in Syed Abidi, Social Change and the Politics of Religion in Pakistan. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii, 1988, 239.

Alternative Futures of Dubrovnik (2003)

Written by students of the American College of Management, Dubrovnik and Sohail Inayatullah 

Hotels, traffic systems, buses, airports all digitally connected allowing the seamless and energy efficient movement of tourists and goods, ensuring that tourism in Dubrovnik stays clean, green and respectful of its historical splendour.

An independent city – once again – with a valuable local currency, a thriving economy structured around local cooperatives – an example to the rest of the world how money can stay in the community, leading to prosperity for residents.

Drugs, sex, AIDS, Mcdonaldization and even Wal-Marts – the destruction of traditional values that citizens of Dubrovnik hold dear. Mass tourism leading to the breakdown of the infrastructure – pollution, traffic jams and a loss of identity. Dubrovnik becomes just another declining tourism destination.

Citizens develop foresight, a 2020 commission is set up in the City council, and best practices and visioning chart Dubrovnik on a new course. Green spaces are enlarged so that mass tourism development does not destroy what is unique about the city. Ecological design of systems ensures that building use energy efficiently. Dubrovnik focuses on two markets – elite as well as student tourists, both necessary for the future of the city.

These four scenarios were developed by students of the American College of Management and Technology. They grew out of the New Wave: Vision of Youth Conference organized by the young people of Dubrovnik (in association with many nongovernmental organizations and governmental organizations).  They were the outcome of a lecture given by former unesco professor (Trier, Germany, 1999) and currently professor of futures studies in Taiwan and social sciences in Australia, Sohail Inayatullah.

Inayatullah explained that there is not one future, but alternative futures. To minimize risk and uncertainty it is wise to develop scenarios of the future. Of course, gaining clarity on the desired vision of the future is crucial. We are always, consciously or unconsciously, living someone’s vision of the future. By developing our own, for our city, nation, civilization, organization, we can decolonize the future and move in the direction we wish.

As well, the vision of the future helps us move out of the jungle. The jungle approach to planning and business is focused on surviving, on being the fastest. From there we can move to the strategic, planning ahead. But further are the mountain tops, the scenarios. These give us the big picture. And high above is the star, the ideal. We may not reach there, but the star gives us a direction for movement. This is especially important as day-to-day we have many crisis. Each crisis overwhelms us. We forget to think strategically, or to search for alternatives, and to stay with our vision. Thus, by developing a landscape of the future, we have a higher probability of realizing our goals.

As argued by researchers on the most successful corporations – those with vision have done the best in terms of longevity and indeed profit.

But along with the vision, is the push of the future. These are trends that are changing the structure of the future. Aging, for example, will have dramatic impacts throughout Europe. Who will pay for the pension if the worker-retiree ratio moves from the current 3-1 to 1.5 to 1? What will happen to city design as we age as a society? Will young people become a highly valued resource? Or will there be generational wars?

But there are also weights to the future? Along with the pull, the vision and the push, the trends, there is the weight. These are forces and structures difficult to change; for example, patriarchy or male ways of running cities and business, or old traumas from centuries of conflict and war. The weights make it difficult to create our desired future, but they also give us wisdom, knowing what is a fad, and what can truly change society.

Finally, Inayatullah suggested that we need to anticipate the future, to look for emerging issues, that is issues that have still yet to ripen. These can help us avoid future problems as well as gain new opportunities. What are the emerging issues in Dubrovnik, he asked? How might, for example, digitalization change the nature of city governance. This is more than having a nice webpage, but using the internet for more efficient city services, and even for e-governance. How would an e-council change local politics?

Based on his work with the Asia-Pacific Cities Summit (a meeting of hundreds of mayors and deputy mayors), Inayatullah offered, along with aging and digitalization, the following important themes for cities.

These were:

1.      Transforming urban sprawl. American cities lose up to 76 billion US$ a year because of sprawl, that is, waiting in traffic, health costs related to car pollution. A well, recent research shows that there is a direct link between sprawl – suburbanization – and obesity. The changing nature of the city has led to the rise of King Car, such that, instead of walking, cars become the way of movement. This tyranny of distance is one of the causes of obesity and thus cancer and heart attacks in the Western world.  700,000 deaths in developing countries annually could be prevented if three pollutants – carbon monoxide, suspended particulate matter, and lead – were brought down to safe levels.

How can Dubrovnik ensure that traffic jams do not spoil the tourist experience, especially as Croatia moves up the world economy?

2.      The greening of the city. This means more than simply more green spaces, but ensuring that all design is based on ecological principles and has a productive after-life.  Energy efficiency in buses, in cars, is changing the nature of the city, and creating a new industry. Australia, for example, has a new system to rate all housing, giving stars for the following; (1) biodiversity, (2) embodied energy, (3) energy consumption, (4) water consumption, (5) indoor air quality, (6) resource efficiency, (7) location and transport, (8) waste management and (9) food production

How can Dubrovnik become a greener city? What architectural practices, city planning, needs to be rethought:? What from the past should continue?

3.       The healthy city has inner and outer dimensions. The inner dimension is based on perceptions of citizens on the quality of their life. Is it improving?. Externally, it is based on longevity, being free of diseases, reduced infant mortality. 500, 000 Europeans die annually from tobacco related illnesses – all which can be easily prevented. However, the foundations of a healthy city include many variables : environment, social justice, participation, basic needs, connection, urban design, and access to health benefits.

Finally, and most importantly, enhanced health is partly determined by level of social connection in city. Social inclusion leads to better health. Related is the notion of place. This has become more important for individuals and community health as globalization makes place less important for business.

How can Dubrovnik become an even healthier city? Can health become part of its future focus, not just in terms of spas, but in terms of the real social, economic, community and individual indicators?

4.      The global-local city. As globalization makes nations more porous and capital freer, it as well opens up space for cities to create the futures they desire. Changes at macro levels are not so easy, but cities, by being attentive to their local citizens and needs, as well as to the larger global environment (pollution, capital flows, tourists, diseases) can in fact dramatically influence the future.

What is Dubrovnik’s vision of the future? And who should it align with to create that? Which other cities have similar pasts, presents and desired futures?

The session concluded with the development of interactive scenarios – digital outlier, back to the past, worst case and best case.

What next then for Dubrovnik?