The Asia-Pacific Futures Network (APFN) Conference was held on August 28th and 29th 2018 in Bangkok. APFN partnered with the National Innovation Agency of Thailand to host the event, titled Asia Imagined: Disruptions and Alternative Futures. The conference offered a thinking space for futurists to identify emerging issues and new trends, reflect on their possible impacts and the new stories and possible futures they pose for Asia. Full text in Pdf
Category Archives: Futures Studies
Our Future Selves (2016)
Interview with Sohail Inayatullah by Leigh Robshaw. Discussion on forthcoming changes such as solar, gene and AI technologies, driverless cars and “clean meat”. Also a section on Sohail Inayatullah’s ideal future world. Published in My Weekly, Wednesday, 16th November 2016.
Futurist Advocates for ‘Strategic Foresight’ in Corporate Planning (2015)
By: Natalie Greve, Creamer Media Contributing Editor Online
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation chair in futures studies Professor Sohail Inayatullah has touted the adoption of “transformative and strategic foresight” by companies in future scenario planning, telling a workshop that this approach creates flexibility in decision-making by moving from a focus on one inevitable future to an analysis of several alternative ones.
This methodology was used by organisations such as the World Economic Forum, which used it to reframe challenges, analyse assumptions about existing organisational challenges and clarify future options for strategic decision-making.
The foresight approach, Inayatullah explained, encouraged a shift from focusing on the day-to-day operational considerations of management to the longer-term transformative dimensions of leadership, introducing broader systematic and transdisciplinarian perspectives and solutions.
“This approach allows [companies] to anticipate emerging issues and weak signals that may derail strategic plans and policies. Through environmental scanning, strategic foresight intends to solve tomorrow’s problems today and discover opportunities early on,” the futurist outlined.
Importantly, the foresight approach changed the temporal horizon of planning from the short term to the medium and long term, while reducing risk by emphasising the positions of multiple stakeholders.
“Often, strategies fail not because of an inaccurate assessment of alternative futures, but as a result of a lack of understanding of deep culture”.
“Blind spots – which are always built into the knowledge framework of each person and organisation – are addressed by including difference. This makes implementation far easier,” said Inayatullah.
Future-based studies and transformative insight in organisations were based on six pillars, the first of which involved the mapping of the past, present and future.
Mapping sought to identify the historical factors and patterns that had created the present, which was itself mapped through environmental scans.
The second pillar saw the anticipation of the future through the identification of emerging issues, while the third pillar sought to “time the future” through an analysis of previous patterns in history.
Inayatullah’s fourth pillar was based on “deepening” the future through an analysis of the deeper myths and world views present beneath the data of the “official” future using causal layered analysis.
A series of alternative possible futures were then created through scenario-planning and an analysis of the critical uncertainties driving the future as well as the archetypes of personal and societal change.
Lastly, through the application of backcasting, visioning and action learning, the future was then “transformed” through the articulation of a preferred future and the development of critical pathways.
Edited by: Chanel de Bruyn Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor Online
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Defined (2014)
Sohail Inayatullah
A version of this appeared in The Futurist (January-February, 2014), 26.
RESEARCH THEORY AND METHOD
Causal layered analysis (CLA) is offered as a new research theory and method. As a theory it seeks to integrate empiricist, interpretive, critical, and action learning modes of knowing at inner and outer levels. As a method, its utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. It is also likely to be useful in developing more effective — deeper, inclusive, longer term — policy.
Since its invention in the late 1980s, it has been used successfully with governments, corporations, international think tanks, communities, and cities around the world. It has also been used as the primary research method for dozens of doctoral and master’s students around the world.
Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldview, and myth/metaphor. The first level is the litany — the official unquestioned view of reality. The second level is the social causation level, the systemic perspective. The data of the litany is explained and questioned at this second level. The third level is the discourse/worldview. Deeper, unconsciously held ideological, worldview and discursive assumptions are unpacked at this level. As well, how different stakeholders construct the litany and system is explored. The fourth level is the myth/metaphor, the unconscious emotive dimensions of the issue.
The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing. Different perspectives (including those of stakeholders, ideologies and epistemes) are in particular brought in the third and fourth levels – at the levels of worldview and myth. This allows for breadth. These differences are then used to reconstruct the more visible levels – social policy and litany.
CLA as well can be applied not just to the external world but to the inner world of meanings – the litany of self-representation, the system of identities, the discourses of the architecture of the mind, and foundational myths and metaphors that define the construction of identity. Conceptual movement through depth and breadth, allows for the creation of authentic alternative futures and integrated transformation. CLA begins and ends by questioning the future.
CLA, FUTURES STUDIES, AND POST-STRUCTURALISM
Embedded in the emerging discourse of futures studies, causal layered analysis (CLA) draws largely from poststructuralism, macrohistory, and postcolonial multicultural theory.[i] It seeks to move beyond the superficiality of conventional social science research and forecasting methods insofar as these methods are often unable to unpack discourses — worldviews and ideologies — not to mention archetypes, myths, and metaphors.
Causal layered analysis is concerned less with predicting a particular future and more with opening up the present and past to create alternative futures. It focuses less on the horizontal spatiality of futures and more on the vertical dimension of futures studies, of layers of analysis. Causal layered analysis opens up space for the articulation of constitutive discourses, which can then be shaped as scenarios. In essence, CLA is a search for integration in methodology, seeking to combine differing research traditions.
These traditions are in flux, in the social sciences generally and futures studies specifically. Futures studies has decisively moved from ontological concerns about the nature of the predicability of the universe to epistemological concerns about the knowledge interests in varied truth claims about the future.
This has led futures studies from being “the bastard child of positivism”,[ii] (prediction) to interpretation and ethnography (the meanings we give to data). And the field’s conceptual evolution has not stopped there. More recently, futures methodologies have been influenced by the poststructural thrust, with concerns for not what is being forecasted but what is missing from particular forecasts and images of the future. This is the layered approach to reality.
At the same time, the limits of instrumental rationality and strategic consciousness have become accepted, largely because of critiques of rationality by scholars associated with the environmental movement, the feminist movement, and spiritual movements — the new post-normal sciences — among others. Moreover, while globalisation has not suddenly developed a soft heart, the agenda now includes how we know the world and how these knowings are complicit in the disasters around us.[iii] This has led to calls to move from strategy as the defining metaphor of the world system to health, or inner and outer balance.
However, the move to poststructuralism, within the CLA framework, should not be at the expense of data–orientation or meaning–oriented research and activism. Indeed, data is seen in the context of meanings, within the context of epistemes (or knowledge parameters that structure meanings; for example, class, gender, the interstate system), and myths and metaphors that organise the deep beliefs, the traumas and transcendence that over time define identity — what it means to mean and to be. CLA does not argue for excluding the top level of the iceberg for bottom–of–the–sea analysis; rather, all levels are required and needed for fulfilling — valid and transformative — research. Moreover, in this loop of data–meaning–episteme–myth, reconstruction is not lost. Action is embedded in epistemology.
Thus, I argue here for an eclectic, integrated but layered approach to methodology. The approach is not based on the idiosyncratic notions of a particular researcher. Nor is it a turn to the postmodern, in that all methods or approaches are equally valid and valuable. Hierarchy is not lost and the vertical gaze remains. But it challenges power over others and divorces hierarchy from its feudal/traditional modes. This eclecticism is not merely a version of pragmatic empiricism — “do whatever works, just solve the problem”. How myth, worldview, and social context create particular litany problems remains foundational.
This politics of epistemology is part of the research process. Politics is acknowledged and self-interest disclosed. Of course, not all self-interest can be disclosed since we all operate from epistemes that are outside of our knowing efforts. Indeed, episteme shapes what we can and cannot know. While eclectic and layered approaches hope to capture some of the unknowns, by definition, the unknown remains mysterious. Acknowledging the unknown is central to futures research. This does not mean that the future cannot be precisely predicted, but rather that the unknown creeps into any research, as does the subjective. Moreover, the unknown is expressed in different ways and different ways of knowing are required to have access to it.
Freeing methodology from politics is a never–ending task; however, it can be accomplished not by controlling for these variables but by layering them
CLA, POLICY, AND STRATEGY
As mentioned above, CLA works at a number of levels, delving deeper than the litany, the headline, or a data level of reality to reach a systemic-level understanding of the causes for the litany. Below that level, CLA goes still further, searching for worldview or stakeholder views on issues. Finally, it unpacks the deepest metaphor levels of reality. Each subsequent level below reveals a deeper cause.
Take quality and safety issues in health care, for example. At the litany level, a problem in the United States is the more than 100,000 deaths per year related to medical mistakes. If we do not go deeper in understanding causation, almost always the business-as-usual strategy is to focus on the individual: more training for particular doctors. By going deeper, however, we discover that safety issues lie not just with particular doctors making mistakes, but rather with the medical and hospital system as a whole. Long working hours, hospitals poorly designed for a maturing society, and lack of communication among different parts of the https://sapmea.asn.au/cialis-20mg/ health system are among other key issues.
Below the systemic level is the worldview, the deep structure of modern medicine. At this level, the reductionist approach, while brilliant at certain types of problem solving, is less useful for connecting with patients, with seeing the whole. Thus, patients opt for other systems that provide a deeper connection. Patients thus intuitively move to the deepest level, that of myth and metaphor: “The patient will see you now” or “I am an expert of my body” challenge the modernist view of “the doctor is always right” as organizing metaphors.
CLA broadens our understanding of issues by creating deeper scenarios. We can explore deep myths and new litanies based on the points of view of different stakeholders—nurses, peer-to-peer health networks, future generations, caregivers, etc.—and then see how they construct problems and solutions.
Finally, CLA is used for implementing new strategies to address issues. Does the new strategy ensure systemic changes (incentives and fines)? Does it lead to worldview-cultural change? Is there a new metaphor, a narrative for the new strategy? And, most importantly, does the new vision have a new litany, a new way to ensure that the strategies reinforce the new future and are not chained to the past?
Causal Layered Analysis thus can be used to deepen our understanding of strategy. Mapping reality from the viewpoint of multiple stakeholders enables us to develop more-robust scenarios. It helps us to understand current reality, and, by giving us a tool to dig deeper and more broadly, it allows us to create an alternative future that is robust in its implementation.
[i] This is from the works of writers such as P.R. Sarkar, Ashis Nandy, and Edward Said.
[ii] J. Dator, e-mail transmission, 24 December 1992. Quoted in: S. Inayatullah, ‘From who am I to when am I?’, Futures, Vol 25, No 3, 1993, 236.
[iii] For example, the USA’s lack of capacity to understand Pushtun culture and its foundational categories of honor create a conflict with no ways out. See, Hasan Jafri, & Lewis Dolinsky, ‘Why bombing and warnings are not working’, San Francisco Chronicle, 16 October, 2001.
Mapping Futures Studies and Risk Analysis, Management and Communication (2010)
Sohail Inayatullah
Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine Coast University, Queensland University of Technology
www.metafuture.org
“I agree that it would be pleasant to walk on streets free of animal waste products. But can we be sure that the waste products of the automobile will be an improvement?”
Herman Cohn, The Social and Political Consequences of the Internal Combustion Engine. 1916.
Clearly no technology, social or material, spiritual or of this world, is without risk. Even though the Hare Krishna claim that they provide “After Life Insurance”, we cannot know until the time comes. And then it may be too late to transform. As the Buddha said on whether there was life after death, “First die, then see”. Of course, cryogenics and life extension from genetic engineering changes risk assessment.
Risk and Futures
This presentation will link approaches to risk with approaches to the study of the future. It concludes with comments on contending images of the future, and the risks associated with each.
To begin with, risk is central to thinking about the future; it is implicit in any statement about the future, however banal. This is especially so for risk defined as probability, i.e., what will happen – what is known as futuribles – the study of probablistics.
But it is also true for risk defined as consequences, what will happen if x occurs – that is, impact analysis.
But perhaps futures studies is best known for the warnings it gives – whether this is the Club of Rome’s classic Limits to Growth, Ravi Batra’s forecasts of economic depressions, or Alvin Toffler’s forecasts of the breakdown of industrial society – the ‘Second Wave’. These warnings are not just confined to the socio-economic but hark back to warnings and prophecies of the physical world as well. For example, writes Bill McGuire in A Guide to the End of the World, there are numerous dangers ahead of us. These include giant tsunamis, asteroid collisions (a 1km asteroid will cause a cosmic winter and kill a billion people), great quakes, volcanic super eruption (part of earth’s natural cycle) and global warming (which would mean some 5 billion people would be without adequate drinking water, and the death of the Great Barrier Reef by 2050 ). It is intriguing that vulcanologists die at the rate of almost one a year, peering into volcanoes.
Types of Futures Studies
Of course, futures studies is not just about prediction. However, that is clearly one dimension of it, and unfortunately, the dimension most well known.
This essentially assumes that:
- The future can be predicted.
- The universe is a closed system.
- Current trends are generally problematic to change.
- And that essentially, the issue is to better manage and thus control the future.
The real issue is the accuracy and precision of the prediction; less dominant is the validity of the assumptions upon which the predictions are based , or the reasons that those issues are the subject of predictions – that is, the issue of relevance.
In this mode of the future, risk is to be consumed. Risk becomes associated with fear.
The issue becomes how to understand the many codes of fear coming at us. Who to believe? Who to trust? And certainly, as pointed out by Paul Slovic, the experts and the ‘public’ disagree on these things. Experts rate the car the most dangerous and the people nuclear power plants. This of course raises the issue of risk communication and the worldview in which we enter conversations on the future.
Thus, predictions should not be seen outside the context of who makes them, when they are made, whom they are made to, why they are made, and the institutional relationships in which they are rendered intelligible.
Indeed, remembering Kafka, risk and fear and their future essentially force us into a postmodern burrow. As Mike Shapiro argues, our consciousness can be more of an enemy rather than an ally. We are no longer sure which forecasts can help us maneuver in this world, which forecasts will hurt our chances. Like the creature who digs a burrow to avoid a predator but who over time can no longer distinguish which sounds are simply its own digging and which the sounds of the predator, we can become lost. The problem of intelligibility does not go away.
But we are soothed by the media: fear is a big business. The fear of fat (fat as a risk criteria for heath disease and cancer) and now the fear of being stupid (with the rise of the smart state, the smart economy and smart nutraceuticals) makes fear essentially the way we know the world.
We thus need to move away from the surface of prediction to an analysis of meanings.
In this sense, a second dimension of futures studies is less an attempt to forecast the future and more an ethnographic understanding of the image of the future. What is desired? Does the way we imagine the future vary according to our gender or culture?
Perhaps such an approach is spreading risk, a means by which the future is not seen in univocal terms but rather as segmented. We live in different worlds and imagine different futures. We cannot know what is true, real and beautiful – and as genetics, postmodernism, multicultural, globalization, virtualism, feminism challenge these essentials, we are less sure of what we know and even what we don’t know (see Table 1). But we can inquire into difference and, understanding how the many see the future, we can move toward a map of what will be and what can be.
The future is thus less of a managerial predictive enterprise and more of a humanist one, searching for the good society, the eutopia, developing the social capacity for civilizational innovation. Using the future to transform today as opposed to using the future to reduce risk and thus gain strategic and competitive advantage.
This moves us to the third approach to the study of the future. This is the critical. In this approach, the future is contested, its categories made problematic. The future is seen in historical terms, as the victory of one way of seeing the world over others. The future that is hegemonic does need to be so. Forecasts are questioned, not for accuracy, but for validity. Why is nation-state risk assessment required, what is it about our world that we need to know which nations are ‘risky’. Isn’t the issue the transformation of the nation-state itself?
Scenarios, for example, are not constructed to be more robust or flexible but they are of use because they distance us from the present. The present is seen as impossible to change. By moving forward and backward in time, the present can be made problematic, remarkable, open to transformation, constructed by particular frameworks and choices.
The notion of choice brings us to the fourth approach: anticipatory action learning. The way to reduce risk is to create desired futures. This is done not in the bravado of world.com or Enron but in the slow and deliberative action of community consultation, of engaging others in how they see the world, what is of importance to them. The details of a scenario, often categorised into society, technology, economy, environment and politics (STEEP) are not assumed, rather the y–axis is developed by those creating the future. They contour within their own categories. The future is not given but made.
The future is created through doing. Mistakes in forecasts are not seen as disasters but as feedback loops. Learning develops by being sensitive and responsive to initial and future conditions – what we discover from complexity and chaos.
Essentially this is a plea for participation and a recognition that common sense is necessary for understanding the future. Experts are needed but they should be contextualized in the worldview they arrive in. All knowledge is, if not biased, then textured. However, this texture is not to be controlled for (as in the predictive), or made distant (as in the critical), but, like the interpretive, to be used to create a better future – texture is a necessary ingredient.
While this is a philosophical typology, it relates as well to the more practical task of how should one engage in thinking about the future.
From Forecasting to Depth
Single Point Forecasting:
As mentioned earlier, forecasting intends to get it right. The future is feared and thus the forecast must be accurate. Vertical organizations tend to use this approach.
And, of course, one may get it right from time to time, but over the long run, this is impossible, since human agency is an ingredient. Our forecasts should assume agency; that is, humans act to avoid certain futures and work diligently to create desired ones.
Alternative Futures
Since single point forecasting may not reduce risk, scenario planning has become the latest corporate flavour. Scenarios reduce uncertainty by clarifying alternatives, by clarifying assumptions, by clarifying probabilities. By describing alternative worlds, risk can be reduced. However, more often than not, corporations tend to desire scenarios that only differ marginally from ‘business as usual’. Alternatives are generally considered a waste of time.
However, one can develop scenarios and use them to test strategies, and, for example, use the strategy that is the most robust, that occurs as preferred or logical in each scenario.
The Australian Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Association (APMA) and the Insurers Manufacturing Association (IMA) have both used this approach. It can also be used for contingency planning or for developing divergence. As well, IMA has used it to develop products. Within each scenario, products can be teased out. These can then be tested in the market place.
However, merely having scenarios is not enough. In the APMA project, while the scenarios were presented to the government agency spearheading Australia’s role in developing the pharmaceutical industry, they were not seen as useful, since they provided alternatives while the Ministry responsible desired specific realizable results. The goals of the scenario project were to anticipate futures and prepare for unknown worlds and to use scenarios to become more adaptable. The government vision was that of developing a series of shared goals so that implementation could be made easier. Clearly this lack of shared methodology and final goal was crucial in the scenarios not being really used.
There are other crucial issues as well. In 1985, Charlie Schnabolk developed four scenarios for the risk associated with the World Trade Center:
(1) Predictable – bomb threats;
(2) Probable – bombing attempts, computer crime;
(3) Possible – hostage taking; and
(4) Catastrophic – aerial bombing, chemical agents in water supply or air-conditioning.
When asked in 2000 what the greatest threat to the WTC was, he responded: “Someone flying a plane into the building”.
The issue, then, is not just the development of scenarios, but how well they are communicated and how well understood.
Depth analysis
What scenarios also miss is the levels of analysis. Scenarios are excellent in reducing and mapping risk, and in extending breadth, but they miss depth.
For example, one could develop scenarios of the futures of quality and safety in health care. At a litany or superficial level, one can develop criteria for different types of medical experts who are more likely to commit mistakes. One can, however, go deeper and focus on the systemic issues; that is, move to the actor-invariant level. Does the system design lead to loss of life, resulting in a medical system that is https://www.chem-ecol.com/valium/ the third biggest cause of death? Is it the long hours, or lack of communication between personnel the crucial variable that leads to risks?
We can also go to a deeper level and begin to question not just the person or the system but the worldview underneath the enterprise – in what ways is allopathy itself the problem?. How does the vertical relations embedded in allopathy, with doctors unwilling to listen (they are the experts), create conditions that lead to increased patient risk? One can then examine quality and safety in other worldviews: alternative medicine, Chinese, or homeopathic, for example. But it would be a mistake to leave it at that. Risk reduction requires a conversation of worldviews, of questioning each worldview in the light of the others. Allopathy asking tough questions of homeopathy, and Chinese of Western. Bringing in divergence allows difference to create safety and health. Difference reduces risk by acknowledging the other, by seeing that each system has areas that it does not know, indeed, areas that it does not even know it does not know.
It is these assumptions that must be challenged.
For example, take Cisco. Cisco developed a brilliant real-time forecasting method. Ram Charan and Jerry Useem in their article for the May issue of Fortune magazine, ”Why companies fail” write:
Cisco, more than any other company, was supposed to be able to see into the future. The basis of this belief was the much vaunted IT system that enabled Cisco managers to track supply and demand in ‘real time’, allowing them to make pinpoint forecasts. This technology, by all accounts, worked great. The forecasts, however, did not. Cisco’s managers, it turned out, never bothered to model what would happen if a key assumption – growth – disappeared from the equation. (p. 50)
Even when things were looking bad, CEO John Chambers was still projecting 50% growth. He said: “I have never been more optimistic about the future of our industry as a whole or of Cisco”(ibid.).
Growth as a factor was not challenged because the deepest level of reality is unconscious and unavailable to us. Fish cannot see water and we cannot see the story we are living.
Stories and competing visions of the future
To see the story, either we need to move to other planets (and thus develop true comparative sociology and macrohistory) or we need to travel to the future, and thus imagine societies and worlds different from today. However, this is not science fiction as currently constituted. Current science fiction merely extrapolates the technological and the economic and thus imagines the Global-cyber world.
Social movements express what that story hides. They imagine a world of sustainability and sharing, planetary consciousness and spirituality. Each in effect becomes a mirror of the other. Of course, there are truly competing visions of the future, coming out in education (global-cyber versus green gender multicultural partnershp) or in transport (telecommuting versus public zero-emissions transport) or in governance (cyber anticipatory democracy or social movements and world governance) or in time (hyper and real time versus slow and spiritual time) and as foundational myths (Spaceship Earth versus Gaia). These images pull us to the future, much as trends such as ageing, genomics, multiculturalism, and ozone layer depletion push us to the future. As well, the weight of history arrests the possibility of system transformation.
Realist, Spaceship and Gaian Images of the Future
What does not compete, but what dominates remains the reality; that is, the nation-state oriented, strategic focused, male based, profit as bottom line world. It is, the Bush-Howard view of the future, where risk is collectively managed but the depth questions are not entered.
When alternative worlds are offered, they are seen as utopian (meaning unrealistic). But, if we take a critical and a depth view, every reality was once a utopia, an imagined world. And every utopia has a dark side, a dystopia. Of course, writes Ivana Milojeivc, having a dystopia is part of making a utopia real. Once both are present then the image has begun to gain credibility, credence. It has the possibility of supplanting the dominant vision of the future.
But returning to the main point, the foundational story is not accessible to those living it. They are in greatest risk if reality does change. This risk is not just financial but existential. Those who lived in former socialism, and believed in notions of quality, international brother- and sister-hood, and safe pensions, now live in emotional tatters. They have no image of the future. Their past has been denounced. Capitalism is a ghost, spirituality a ruse. There is nothing in the past or future. Agency is impossible for them.
What this means is that if one desires to enter and engage in the understandings of risk, merely seeing the exercise as risk management or even risk communication is likely to be unsatisfactory. Certainly writers like Mark Slovic who explore worldviews and risk are, I believe, on the right track since risk in their model is constructed by people’s wordviews and practices.
As he writes: “Risk management decisions will finally be a matter not of mathematics, but of judgement”. This means taking account of scientific and social information and applying what Slovic calls “reasoned thinking”:
Using our human faculties to the best effect. Risk decision makers must continually attend to building trust with stakeholders. They need to demonstrate the care, thoughtfulness and fairness of their decisions. It will not be enough to demonstrate that a decision is ‘scientific’- it also has to be shown that all values were considered.
I would go a step further and assert that: Risk is not out there in the real world, it is created by our imaginations. We constitute risk by who we are. Far more than reasoned thinking is needed; indeed, post-rational depth analysis is required.
What then to do?
While there are no easy solutions, I would take the anticipatory action approach and question reality at all levels: Question the litany, question the system, question the worldview and find ways to question the foundational myth that supports the entire system.
When forecasting the futures of risk, I would do my best to move beyond single point forecasts to scenarios, but then go much further, unpacking the levels underneath scenarios. That said, there are patterns to reality.
Macrohistory
One of the pillars of futures studies is macrohistory – the study of grand patterns of social change. Civilizations do have a linear trajectory – increased rights over the last 500 years or so, for example – but there are also cyclical dimensions. Driving a car is individually tailored; the opposite of course is the community, public transport. Perhaps we have erred on the side of the individual and earth’s limitations now call into question the realist Bush-Howard world we have created. There may be limits. Or there may be spiral solutions that bring out the best of each, perhaps creating boutique public transport wherein the public remains but is reinvented, where public transport is less drab, more tailored for communities. New technologies also may even dramatically further individualize the car, for example, by testing for alcohol, testosterone, the number of passengers (all risk criteria) and perhaps even genes. This further individualization may lead to safety for the public, turning cars off if risk factors are sensed.
In this sense, the grand question is: Do the new technologies promise a transformation of the world we have had for the last five hundred years? Can they transform the obvious risks industrializiation, materialism, the western way of life have generated? Or are the genetic, nano and other technologies mere continuations, now extending risk far beyond our capacity to imagine the futures being created, as with germ-line intervention and xeno-transplants.
Is then the solution the alternative softer Gaian society, organic, gender partnership, led by social movements, far more concerned with distribution than with growth, committed to community relationships and not necessarily to nation, but to planet. But we should not assume this Gaian future is risk free. As Michio Kaku argues, we need to move from Type 0 civilization (focused on using using non-renewable fossil fuels and nuclear energy) to a Type 1 civilization that uses the sun for energy, sending huge space ships to collect the vast resources of the sun, allowing us to modify the planet, weather, and begin to prepare our departure from this planet if need be (and eventually we will need somewhere else to live as our solar system will die one day). The soft Gaian future, focused on our inner lives and social justice is unlikely to have the capacity to save our species.
But the Bush-Howard model is clearly wrecking us and the Spaceship models poses more risks than we can imagine.
Perhaps it is time to imagine another vision of the future, moving toward but beyond the nation, or earth as spaceship or Gaia.
Shall we take the risk?
Table 1: Knowledge and Ignorance
CERTAINITY
KNOW DON’T KNOW
Type 1
What you know
|
Type 4
What you don’t know
|
Type 2
What you know you know
|
Type 5
What you don’t know you know
|
Type 3
What you know you don’t know
|
Type 6
What you don’t know you don’t know
|
UNCERTAINTY
References
[1] Bill McGuire, A Guide to the End of the World: Everything you never wanted to know. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2002.
[1] Sohail Inayatullah, Questioning the Future: Futures Studies, Action Learning and Organizational Transformation. Tamsui, Tamkang University Press, 2002.
[1] Paul Slovic and Elke Weber, “Perception of Risks Posed by extreme events.” Paper prepared for Conference, Risk Management Strategies in an Uncertain World. New York, April 12-13, 2002.)
[1] Michael Shapiro. , Reading the Postmodern Polity: Political Theory as Textual Practice. Oxford and Minneapolis, University of Minnesota Press, 1992.
[1] Sohail Inayatullah, Questioning the Future, 118. From, Richard Reeves, “Mission Impossible: Securing Tall Buildings Against Terrorists.” The International Herald Tribune. (October 20-21, 2001), 6.
[1] Ram Charan and Jerry Useem, “Why companies fail,” Fortune (May 27, 47-58)
[1] Ivana Milojevic. The futures of Education: Feminist and Post-western critiques of the Global Cyber hegemonic vision of education. Brisbane, the University of Queensland, 2002. Doctoral Dissertation.
[1] http://www.ermanz.govt.nz/Publications/pdfs/pe029801.pdf.
[1] Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah, eds. Macrohistory and Macrohistorians. Praeger, Westport, Ct., 1997.
[1] Sohail Inayatullah, Situating Sarkar: Tantra, Macrohistory and Alternative Futures. Maleny, Gurukul, 1999. Understanding Sarkar: The Indian Episteme, Macrohistory and Transformative Knowledge. Leidin, Brill, 2002.
[1] Michio Kaka, Visions. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1998.
Australia 2026 – An Alternative Future (2007)
Sohail Inayatullah, Professor, Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University; adjunct Professor, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of the Sunshine Coast.
Drawing inspiration from the recent Australian Association for Environmental Education conference, this essay paints a different possible scenario for the future of Australia.
It has been almost twelve years since the Howard-Costello run was dramatically defeated. Australians, while enjoying economic rise, tired of the social and environmental divide that followed. The Liberal party had been great at economic growth within the industrial paradigm but the digital era demanded far more flexibility and creativity than a 1950s childhood could give leaders.
Since the new leadership – a coalition of new labour, Green and recently created political parties – there have been dramatic changes.
Some have been visible changes, one can see while walking around in cities, others have been systemic changes, but the major shift has been one of worldview – from the politics of fear and exclusion to the ethics of inclusion and a version of sustainability. As well, the story Australians told about themselves had changed – it was not about “children overboard” or “interest rate hikes” but about the confident but ethical Aussie, certainly punching above one’s weight but not boasting about it. On the contrary, more and more Aussies took a personal pride in quietly , working with other cultures to meet the global challenges.
Of course, the obvious happened. Australia signed Kyoto, the Prime Minister apologized to indigenous communities, a republic was created. And: the first Australian president was aboriginal, providing (as with Nelson Mandela in South Africa), moral leadership and direction.
The rise of cultural creatives – a mere five per cent of the population a generation ago but now almost 30 per cent has been the driver of change. Their values of ecology, spirituality, gender partnership, concern for future generations and globalism (freedom of movement of culture, ideas, labour and capital but protection of local communities) have had dramatic impacts throughout the world. They were central in the dramatic rise of a culture of engaged caring.
But there were many other changes. The first time home buyers grant was increased. However, part the deal was a stipulation that the house purchased with the grant used green technologies – rain water tanks, solar energy, to begin with. This was not so difficult as state level building associations throughout Australia had already agreed to lift their standards ensuring that all houses were designed with sustainable, cradle-to-cradle principles.
Universities received dramatic improvements in their budgets. However, they were not exempt from structural change – they too had to dismantle the worst of the industrial era – i.e.STEEP hierarchy, with the professor above, the lecturer below and other staff and students way below. Universities were regeared to meet the challenges of aging, sustainability, and the dramatic revolution in nano-, genetic- and digital technologies.
Internationally, the image of the arrogant Aussie, the deputy Sheriff had disappeared. Australia was now regarded as a unique mix of British, European, indigenous and Asian cultures. Multiculturalism has become stronger but it too has been challenged. Culture is not used as an excuse for gender or nature discrimination. Australian’s many cultural traditions are fine with this as they have been given their dignity – with strength negotiation is possible. Muslim communities have continued to play a vital role, as with all migrant communities, but as Australian has become more gentle, so have they – the eclectic mystical sufi dimension taking its rightful place among the many other strands of Islam.
But while grand debates of culture continue to take place throughout the world, the small things are what really matter. For example, day care centres are fully funded – indeed, salaries of day care workers have jumped. Schools too have changed – they are fully digital, far more flexible toward the unique talents of individual learners – the one-size-fits-all model has been thrown out. Children co-manage schools, design curricula with adults. Peer to peer mediation is used to resolve conflicts. Education truly is for sustainability. Research from brain science – the many ways we learn – and from meditation (enhancing our capacity to learn and think) has been integrated into schools.
Cities too have changed – from being a nation of faceless suburbs, the healthy cities movement has ensured that community-work hubs, walk and bike ways have become the norm in Australia. There are real travel choices – cars, light rail, bus, bikes. Buses as well are far less mass based – they smell better, allow for individuality, arrive and leave on time and are linked to other transport modes, that is, they are integrated, tailored, efficient and seamless transport.
Demand for local food production has seen the return of the backyard veggie patch and urban community gardens. Around the gardens people have rebuilt their local neighbourhood, with a resultant dramatic decline in urban crime.
Better travel choices have dramatically helped reduce the obesity crisis, as has a change in diet. The rise of the vegetarian movement, with consequent savings on water, savings on energy, savings on health and longer life, has also played an important part in reshaping Australian values and behaviour. As with tobacco consumption, meat consumption continues to decline. Organic food production continues to soar in Australia.
The health sector has been reconfigured to be multi-door – doctors work with other allied health professionals, not just to treat patients but also to advise them and to empower them. “Take charge of your health, or she won’t be right” is the catch cry. With Australians living longer, active aging and grey power have been important movements, ensuring that the latter years of life are happy and productive ones.
Australia did not become the nuclear super power as Howard had hoped. Iinstead massive funding for green energy has made Australia a hotbed of creativity – every Asian city is learning from Australia’s systemic changes and its green technologies. As with the Kennedy’s image of a “man on the moon”, the new leadership vision of clean, green, trans-cultural communities has sparked a wave of innovative technologies. Businesses are doing well, especially those that are based on triple bottom line performance measures. Along with businesses, cooperatives have boomed as legal changes have allowed them to grow and become a dominant feature of the organizational landscape.
The Howard-Costello years, while somewhat of a dark era socially, are seen as an example of what can happen when leadership dishonestly pretends to have no ideology; when it leads from fear instead of possibility; and when it focuses on the short term instead of the long term. Of course, many remember that era with fondness – there was less ambiguity, less debate – but generally, while Howard was seen as a great manager and an astute politician, it was increasingly recognised that he was not a great leader who enabled citizens to be better than themselves.
There are endless problems today as well:
- Sea-level rise is still likely to change the coastal areas,
- challenges of peacekeeping still challenge governments throughout the world,
- there are new health crisis as individuals adapt to a post-industrial world and
- new infectious diseases are rampant because of global warming …
Nonetheless, but humility and dignity have ensured that innovation and creativity are here to stay.
Or perhaps not!
What if it is now 2026 and Prime Minister Howard remains on top? What if he has managed to coopt new ideas while not watering down his core conservative ideology? His exercise regime, anti-aging genetic breakthroughs and new brain drugs could have helped him keep up abreast of all these issues. Costello may be still waiting for him to resign, with the rest of us wondering how things could have been so, so different.
Which future do you wish for?
Iraq, Lebanon, The Middle East: In Search of a Rational Foreign Policy (2007)
Foresight and connecting the Dots: The politics of worldviews and disowned selves/collectivities
By Sohail Inayatullah
For the foresight practitioner, what is most stunning about the war in Iraq, the recent war in Lebanon and the war on terror is the lack of capacity of Western governments to connect the dots.
While surveillance continues to heighten, the British Prime Minister Tony Blair appears to have forgotten part two of his formula, that is, tough on crime/terror and tough on the causes of crime/ terror. The links between recent foiled terror attacks in England and the war against Lebanon (or Hezbollah) are not noticed. While radio stations take calls by Muslims asking for a fairer more balanced – reasonable and rational – policy and strategy from England, Blair continues to tow the American line.
Taking the future into account, the American response appears neither reasonable nor rational. That is, we have seen that sanctions and wars do not isolate particular groups – Serbs have not become more democratic since they were bombed (the extreme right remains ever alive), and Iraq certainly is far from having become democratic; rather it is in a midst of a civil war and may have become a haven for terrorists –the exact opposite of USA strategy and planning goals. Bombing people into democracy does not appear to be a viable strategy; in fact, the violence becomes internalized, and is considered by those bombed as the rational strategy.
However, the memory of World War II remains – total destruction followed by rebuilding. Generals appear to continue to fight today’s wars with the memory of previous wars. What made the German experience different was near total annihilation followed by a real hearts and minds rebuilding. The war in Lebanon has weakened if not destroyed any possibility of hearts and minds changing. Indeed, conspiracy theories, already the dominant currency in the Arab world, have become even more inflated.
Irrespective of one’s views toward Al-Qaeda – their demand of withdrawal of western armies from the Arabian Peninsula appear reasonable. Earlier, they offered a ceasefire in Iraq, and yet, most reasonable and rational parties would look toward dialogue. Of course, the trauma of 9/11 in the USA – the pain of the families who lost loved ones along with the shock of an attack on the world’s imperial power removes any chance of a dialogue.
Or is there some other worldview that is so forceful that rationality is lost, something deeper than trauma as well. We know that after the USA initial victory in Iraq, the entire Iraqi army was disbanded: 400,000 solders fired. Certainly a bit of foresight could see that unemployed, angry, dishonored men would provide a reserve army for outside recruiters. Iraq, once authoritarian and totalitarian, is now the Wild West – the site of the terrorism and Sunni-Shia fault lines. But it was not the rational that was victorious but a desire for revenge and the deep Orientalism of the victors, i.e. Iraqis are inferior. Subsequent rapes and prisoner abuse point this out. Orientalism creates the framework wherein others are reduced to sub-humanity. In short: war others all.
OTHER DISCOURSES
What are other discourses that explain the irrationality of today’s geo-politics?
First, as mentioned above is Orientalism – they are barbaric, evil, to be destroyed. A “new” form of this is extreme evangelism, the hope for a united Israel, leading to Armageddon – with two billion to die – followed by the return of Jesus, and heaven on Earth. It appears that the President of the USA, Bush supports this view. Secondly, the inverse holds true also. The extreme Islamic version of this appears to be supported by the President of Iran, who too waits for the 12th Imam to come back and save the world.
A third related discourse is that of the triumph of democracy – eventually a new middle east will emerge once Iraqis, Hezbollah, and others discover the joys of Westernism. In the Iranian case, however, it is the CIA disposal of the Iranian prime-minister Mohammad Mossadegh in1953 that is a more recent memory, not to the mention the Iranian’s own desire for Empire.
At another level, this is merely the paradigm of good versus evil being played out in the body politic. American society lives out this drama and cannot rest unless this struggle is played on CNN nightly and now far more disturbingly on Fox News. That is, the USA needs an enemy to exist – with the fall of Russia; Islam has taken its place. Next will be China and East Asia in general. Islam, as part of the Judaeo-Christian- tradition (the three brothers), is also part of the good-evil field.
Perhaps far saner discourses are the feminist and the environmentalist. War itself is the problem – it is inequitable, killing the most vulnerable on each side. War is not an equal opportunity killer, as we have seen in Lebanon and in Israel. The environment too suffers – mountains are destroyed, and now with the Oil spill in Lebanon, water too is destroyed. Nature is the victim of patriarchy. Democracies do not attack democracies because they are busy attacking ‘lesser forms of governance’, ‘more vulnerable humans,’ and ‘nature herself,’ as Ivana Milojevic has argued (www.metafuture.org)
Equally valuable is the work of Hal and Sidra Stone (http://www.enotalone.com/authors.php?aid=14) [1] with their focus on disowned selves. The self disowned is the problem; it is seen as ‘out there’, objective and in need of colonization, conversion or destruction. However, this objective external reality is created by the evolution of the dominant self – thus extreme Islam is the disowned self of the West.
Less internal is classic political-economy. We know that who gains from conflict are the arms merchants underwritten by the usual suspects: USA, Britain, Israel, China and France.
These discourses help explain the irrationality – why the USA would support a war that will only create more terrorism, i.e. dysfunctionality will be met by more dysfunctionality. With a youth boom predicted to continue for the next 20 years in the Arabian Peninsula, we can see that more rather than less war is likely.
Solving Israel-Palestine on terms of dignity for the Palestinians remains the issue. It is absolutely stunning that there are still refugee camps in Lebanon – these are now permanent camps. Generations of pathology have been created and will continue to be created. The neural pathways of Palestinians and Israelis remain focused on fear and war – that is what is now normal. They may not even be able to find a solution themselves – it may require a super-ordinate power, i.e. no more funding to either group until they find systemic solutions. We know that worldview/cultural solutions will take much longer – i.e. creating identities not based on fear and revenge but on forgiveness.
GLOBAL LEVEL – MOVING FORWARD
While there are certainly excellent ways forward, as for example developed by Johan Galtung through his Transcend conflict resolution method (www.transcend.org)[2], at the global level, I believe we cannot move forward in our human evolution until this problem is solved. Hoping that a massive war will solve it forgets that war creates more memories, more stories of revenge and hate – healing does not occur. For Israel to succeed, or for the Israeli haters to succeed, every last person must die. Who has the stomach for that, not to mention morality? Yet, without transformation we face more irrational bleeding, fighting with no solutions in sight, only temporary winners and losers. Arab populations remain lost in conspiracy theories, on the problem of Israel, or when that is solved (on the problem of the Kurd, or Shia, or…)
Most leaders cannot see this – their worldview does not allow it. Perhaps this is just our evolutionary stage – we remain locked in vicious lock-ins – but if we are to survive, certainly more robust global governance is needed, as well as ways to move past our worldviews of co-dependency, of good and evil, and Armageddon. Until then, our disowned selves keep coming back to kill. Can we listen and change?
If not, perhaps this poem by Patricia Kelly will remind us why we must!
Bomblet meditation
The let of the past was a dainty diminutive.
Anklets jingled on chubby legs
Circlets of flowers crowned gods and brides
Ringlets flounced on moppets’ heads.
‘Bomblets’ are a lethal present.
Metal shards shatter
anklets and circlets
ringlets and moppets
brides and gods
and language
alike.
[1] Essential here is the work of Hal and Sidra Stone. They focus on the disowned selves – selves that we push away as we focus on particular identities. For academics, in the search for the purity of truth, the business self is pushed away. Classically for the corporate world, the ethical self is pushed away in the drive for profits. Integrating these various selves may be the most important challenge for academics. See http://www.enotalone.com/authors.php?aid=14
[2] See Johan Galtung, The Middle East: Building Blocks for Peace. Journal of Futures Studies. Vol 11, No2, November 2006.
Questions for Busy Managers (2007)
By Sohail Inayatullah
A chapter from Questioning the Future
I am too busy to think about the future!
There is no question that thinking about the future takes away time from other activities. However, the current present was once a future, and was either created from planned activities, or from things that you wanted to do but never got around to, because you were too busy. The default future.
Also, unless you think about the future, someone else who makes time for the future will, if not control, then certainly define the future for you.
Just tell me then the strategic aspects of the future I need to know—which parts of my company are likely to grow. Where the opportunities are and what events or trends I should watch out for.
This is not too difficult to do. However, you are asking for someone to predict the future for you. Sometimes one can be correct in getting a single-point forecast right. But there are so many factors that could impinge upon the forecast. It is wiser to develop alternative scenarios about the future or map the future based on the likely trajectory of trends.
Each scenario should be driven by a different factor. Technology. Demographics. Economic cycles. Changing consumer expectations. And it is important to have a contingency scenario that describes a dramatic system collapse. That is, where everything goes back to zero, where we all have to relearn everything.
But can’t we reasonably say something about the future?
Of course, this does not mean we shouldn’t discern trends that are creating the future. But it is important to see trends not as fixed structures but as directional, as changeable. Certainly, we can make an entire range of sensible statements about the future. We know that the population in OECD nations is dramatically ageing, that the worker/retiree ratio is going from 3 to 1 to 1.5 to 1. Globalization, the Internet, Multiculturalism, democratization are all forces that will change the future. However, what these trends mean, what counter trends might emerge, how events might impact them, and how long they will take to actualize is far more difficult, and important, to ascertain.
For example, recently a colleague asked whether anyone had accurately predicted the fall of the Berlin Wall. While there were a few macrohistorians who got it pretty much right (using the hypothesis that totalitarian systems are more likely to explode while democratic systems change more slowly), the question can be framed differently. It could be: what are the Berlin walls in our life, in the world, in our organizations that need to be broken down? One approach leads to prediction, the other to questioning.
Returning to the issue of prediction, we can actually say a great deal about the short-term future—what you might call the known future (technologies under development, government policies to be enacted). However, and this is crucial, the future cannot be precisely predicted. The universe is not closed but open. One’s image of the future and the resultant actions (not to mention the collective unconscious) influence the future that will be.
In this sense, the role of anticipatory action learning is not so much to figure out the exact future to but to work with the client to determine unconscious and conscious images of the future. It is moving even beyond scenario planning to actually creating an action learning (and healing) organization.
Yes, but are there certain methods that can help me in my need for strategic thinking?
The best way to think about this is the s-curve. Most of our planning efforts focus on current problems, the end of the s-curve. Trend analysis is a bit better as it is concerned with the middle part, where there is some data. Figuring out the trends that might impact your work, community, life allows one some lead-time. It also gives one time to consider opportunities that may have not been there before.
But perhaps the most exciting method is emerging issues analysis. These are issues that are unlikely to occur but if they do could have dramatic, often dire, consequences. New technologies, dramatic changes in population flows, revolutions are some examples of these. They also force us to rethink the present. Indeed, the best use of the future is as a vehicle to question the present. Utopian studies have rarely been about the future but rather about the peculiar nature of the present.
When I worked for the courts many years ago, we identified issues that would dramatically change caseload, the business of the courts, or how courts resolved conflicts (computer judges, neighborhood justice centers, culturally appropriate dispute resolution). This allowed the courts to better meet the changing needs of citizens. It was also a lot of fun and played an important educational role in training young administrators and judges. They saw that their role was not just to be efficient, effective and economical but also to challenge the basic assumptions of what courts do.
Sounds like a lot of work.
In the beginning it is. One strategy is to outsource to a futures scanning firm. They scan the environment and look for trends and issues that might influence your organization.
Another tack is always to be looking for the new idea, the alternative approach to something, the outlier, the event or trend that does quite make sense. This is more than thinking differently, it is being different. I remember one colleague—Jordi Serra—who said: you can’t just search for emerging issues, you have to become an emerging issue.
But at a deeper level, it is scary since the ground of what one is doing is questioned. Of course, paralysis by critique is a grave danger, and thus, it is important to engage in a pilot project to test one’s hypothesis, insights about the future. For example, in the courts this was about setting up an alternative dispute mediation system to test if citizens wanted less formal adjudication.
Isn’t there safety in following the pack?
This is true and not true. Certainly, nations like Japan and later Taiwan have risen in the world economy by copying. But there is a certain point where such a strategy won’t get you anywhere except middle-income status. You have to move up the value-added chain. This is true for business, and for one’s own life as well.
A study found that corporations that have lasted over one hundred years all had one shared variable: tolerance for ideas from the edge. Clearly, this is not about copying, but about leading.
What is the role of action learning in futures thinking?
First, while forecasting the future gives one information about the future, it does not provide the context of the future. This comes through action learning where the entire process is created by those involved in the process.
So, the notion of the future, of strategy, is created by the partners in the process.
Futures thinking transforms action learning by injecting an anticipatory notion. Action learning is no longer just about the questioning the product or the process or the factors of production but about questioning the future. It is asking:
Whose future is being created?
Is the future being lived explicit or implicit?
How can the future become more explicit?
How can questioning the future lead to shared futures?
For the consultant, this means asking the client what metaphors her or his organization uses to think about the future.
I am still confused about strategy and futures.
While being strategic has its rewards, strategy remains means-end focused. It does not include different ways individuals know the world—through authority, intuition, reason, empiricism and even love. Strategy is useful in a world that is flat, where difference is minimized.
But when there is a great deal of difference—of cultures, languages, perspectives—then strategy is far more difficult. A post-strategic approach is needed. This means using forecasting and scenarios but trying to move beyond rational planning to develop an evolutionary-organic feel of the future. This is partly about one’s gut feeling but also about having an inner guidance system as to which future one might want. My own futures approach is precisely the organic unfolding of the future. The future grows out from within in the context of a changing external environment.
This means seeing the future not just in terms of expanding our horizon, having more and different types of data and information but moving to a knowledge framework where there is depth.
This means seeing the future in terms of levels of the future. Strategy is generally short term oriented as it changes the most visible part of our worlds. Deeper levels accessible by metaphor and story are not so easily available to strategy. One has to enter different personal and cultural frames to begin to enter this deeper view of the future.
Why is difference so important?
By understanding difference we can understand others’ needs better. We can make better products, better design. Having a diversity of representation allows for difference. Difference can lead to synergies unexpected outcomes. Indeed, even misunderstandings can lead to positive outcomes.
Difference can also create unexpected futures.
And unexpected headaches!
The other part of the futures toolbox that is useful is creating a shared vision. Emerging issues, scenario planning, ways of knowing and depth approaches to the future create a diversity of information. This enriches the planning context. However, the other crucial dimension of planning for the future is created shared spaces.
To do this, engaging in a visioning process is crucial. The vision has to be detailed, though. Not just motherhood statements that all can agree to. Specific statements about how you want the future to be like. You wake up in the morning, say 2010, what does the world look like. Are you working? What is your income level? Are you married? Is there still marriage? Is there still work? What technologies are you using to communicate with others? Is communication important? Is there even a you (the modern notion of an integrated autonomous self)?
If one engages in this process with a group of people, it is likely that a shared vision can result.
This shared vision can remove many organizational headaches.
So there are different types of planning for the future?
At least four: the first is concerned with the mission of the organization. This is about being clear on the core business and identity of the organization. The second is the social, technological and environmental context. This means constantly being on the lookout for how the future is changing. The third is problem-oriented planning. Questioning is the most useful at this level as one questions current problems, finds new problems and discovers innovative solutions. The fourth is the vision of the organization, where is the organization headed toward, how will the basic mission, the identity change as the future changes.
There is a fifth, though that is not often mentioned in the literature. The fifth is the organic evolutionary future, which emerges from a mixture of data about the world, gut feelings about what to do next, individual ethics and dialogue with others (self, nature, colleagues, customers, and the mysterious beyond). Sensitivity to changing conditions, inner and outer, is far more important than the plan.
What are the usual approaches to the future?
The first approach is determining the probable future. That is, given economic, technological, consumer, demographic trends, how will the world (or nation, community, organization) look in a few years. Of course, as you go further out in time things get a bit hazier (unless you believe the universe is foundationally patterned and a science of forecasting is possible).
The second approach is focused on possible futures. The full range of what can happen—all the alternatives.
The third approach is the preferred. What do we want the future to be like? There is usually quite a marked difference between the preferred for oneself and for the world. Most studies show that we expect our own futures to be good and the world’s futures to be quickly going to hell.
The fourth approach is the gut level/intuitive future. This is the organic future that emerges from our life choices, our patterns of behavior, our expectation of others, our deep-set beliefs and worldview. It is our karmic future to some extent. For some this means trusting that there is a divine pattern guiding them, for others this means that the universe is intelligent, for others that the Gods favor (or disfavor) them, and for still others, it means leading a good moral life.
The future in this latter approach is a process of learning about self, family, community and world. It is a co-evolutionary pattern. Essentially it is about having a deep sensitivity toward the world.
What use is futures planning to a typical manager, consultant?
If one is a consultant—providing knowledge solutions to government, community and business—then futures can add to your toolbox. Scenario planning can help an organization determine the effectiveness of current decisions.
Futures thinking can also help determine what trends are creating the future university. How, for example, how new technologies, corporatization (the end of monopoly accreditation by the Academy), multicultural content and virtualization are transforming the University. This can assist in determining what niche markets are possible.
In general, futures thinking provides new types of insight as to what the world might be like, what the dominant images of the future are, and how to create alternative futures.
How does this relate to the famous axiom, Learning = questioning + programmed knowledge?
What is often forgotten is that in most of our questions there are assumptions about reality, about culture, about the right way to do things. So, we need to question the cultural basis of our questions, seeing them not as universal but as problematic as well. That is, our questions are actually congealed knowledge. Thus questioning has to be questioned.
The same goes with programmed knowledge. Programmed knowledge is actually answered questions.
So questioning and programmed knowledge are subsets of each other. Look for the hidden content in questioning and the answered and un-asked questions in programmed knowledge.
If we can do that, we can really create alternative futures.
What of ways of knowing and learning?
Learning, then, is questioning plus programmed knowledge plus ways of knowing. Without challenging the epistemic content of the questions asked and programmed knowledge, only instrumental changes will result. Ways of knowing move us into areas where we don’t know what we don’t know.
I am still too busy to think about the future, especially since I don’t know what I don’t know.
You are already going toward a future. The question is: Is that the future you want? How do you know? If yes, wonderful, how can you be more explicit about your vision? If no, then how can you change your direction?
Remember: there is the pull of the future (the vision, the image) and the push to the future (technology, demographics, changing economic ideologies). There is also structure—that which is difficult to change. These are worldviews, patterns of behavior, dominator relationships. One can spend all one’s life fighting them or create a new vision and focus on living that.
The exciting part of anticipatory action learning is that the future is co-created. There is certainly some programmed knowledge involved in questioning the future. There is data on trends, information on scenarios, knowledge of different types of futures approaches, methods and hopefully some wisdom on when it is appropriate to use which method, to focus on which trend. But the questioning part makes the future real instead of a one-way lecture about the future. As with other professions, expertise can be a gift and a danger. Action learning means a back and forth reflection on probable and preferred futures. It means asking questions of the scenarios we desire to happen and the scenarios we believe are probable. Why this scenario, we can ask? What will the impact of x scenario be on a strategic plan, a product line, a marketing campaign?
Being too busy now means huge costs later. Remember that in 1985 Charlie Schnabolk developed four scenarios for the World Trade Center: (1) Predictable—bomb threats; (2) Probable—bombing attempts, computer crime; (3) Hostage Taking; and (4) Catastrophic—aerial bombing, chemical agents in water supply or air conditioning.
And when asked in 2000 what the greatest terrorist threat to the WTC was, he responded: “Someone flying a plane into the building.”
Well, why didn’t they listen?
Accurate forecasting is one issue but implementation is another. For that, the planner/futurist has to work with the organization in question, finding ways to not just get the future right but ensure that those that can do something about the future are involved. That they have an interest in the future, that they have something to say as well. If they remain simply consumers of information, then the chance of implementation decreases dramatically.
Then a conversation about the future is most appropriate?
A conversation enhances programmed knowledge—it deepens it, brings in alternatives. A conversation—especially a layered conversation that explores not just the words being uttered but the meanings they represent to each participant and the structures of knowledge that create the categories of intelligibility—can be foundational in creating a more satisfying future.
Otherwise, what is learned is simply one expert’s view of the future, with all its natural limitations.
So back to you: Why is questioning the future important?
Futures Dreaming: Challenges From Outside and on the Margins of the Western World (2003)
Ivana Milojevic and Sohail Inayatullah
Abstract
In this article, we challenge the hegemony of western science fiction, arguing that western science fiction is particular even as it claims universality. Its views generally remain based on ideas of the future as forward time. In contrast, in non-western science fiction the future is seen outside linear terms: as cyclical or spiral, or in terms of ancestral time. In addition, western science fiction has focused on the good society as created by technological progress, while non-western science fiction and futures thinking has focused on the fantastic, on the spiritual, and on the realization of eupsychia—the perfect self.
However, most theorists assert that the non-west has no science fiction, ignoring Asian and Chinese science fiction history. As well, western science fiction continues to ‘other’ the non-west as well as those on the margins of the west (African-American woman, for example).
Nonetheless, while most western science fiction remains trapped in binary opposites—alien/non-alien; masculine/feminine; insider/outsider—writers from the west’s margins are creating texts that contradict tradition and modernity, seeking new ways to transcend difference. Given that the imagination of the future creates the reality of tomorrow, creating new science fictions is not just an issue of textual critique but of opening up possibilities for all our futures.
Keywords: Science fiction, Non-west, Alternative Futures
“Science fiction has always been nearly all white, just as until recently, it’s been nearly all male” (Butler [1]).
“Science fiction has long treated people who might or might not exist—extra-terrestrials. Unfortunately, however, many of the same science fiction writers who started us thinking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial life did nothing to make us think about here-at home variation—women, blacks, Indians, Asians, Hispanics, etc” [2].
Is all science fiction western? Is there non-western science fiction? If so, what is its nature? Does it follow the form and content of western science fiction, or is it rendered different by its own local civilizational historical processes and considerations? Has western science fiction moulded the development of the science fiction of the ‘other’, including feminist science fiction, in such a way that anything coming from outside the west is a mere imitation of the real thing? Perhaps non-western science fiction is a contradiction in terms. Or is there authentic non-western fiction which offers alternative visions of the future, of the ‘other’?
Paradigms in Science Fiction
In Positions and Presuppositions in Science Fiction, Darko Suvin argues there are three dominating paradigms of science fiction [3]. The first is the Asimov’s technocratic, wedded to the notional universe of nineteenth-century science, from thermodynamics to behaviorism, man as subject and the universe as an object of cognition. The second model is the classical stateless socialist vision of utopia as shown in Yefremov’s works; and the third is the cosmic/mystical spiritual technocracy of Lem [4]. While Lem might be the most sympathetic to the non-west, all three paradigms dramatically miss the other—the role of family, of woman, of the spiritual. They are unable to account for the worldview of the other within the knowledge categories of the other. Indeed the nature of the west is such that the other has no identity except as a people to be colonized, developed or appropriated—to be mapped onto the body of the west.
African, Asian and women’s identities often exist in other paradigms. First, they are concerned about their historical identity. Second, they are concerned about the collective, the family, as the individual here exists in a space alternative from the western version. Third, the spiritual, or the emotional, the softer side of what it means to be human is more important. This said, it is crucial to note that while there are deep structures, they are played out differently; it is in local specific conditions that structures are both created and expressed—it is history that creates identity. For example, in India and Islam, the historical struggle has been on the gendered nature of public and private space, while in the west, it has been between individualism and the collective, democracy and tyranny.
Yet most anthologies, encyclopedias and histories of science fiction take a universalistic view of science fiction and posit that non-western science fiction is non-existent. The authors they select are “nearly all white…[as well as]… nearly all male”. In addition, it is often thought: how could it be possible for non-western societies to develop images of technologically advanced future societies since they themselves are pre-industrial, pre-modern? For example, although even in the least technologically developed societies, we see ‘cyborgs’ walking on prosthetic legs—their flesh-and-blood legs having been blown up by land mines—cyborg as a category which explores the future (man-in-machine and machine-in-man) has not been imagined, envisioned, or dreamed of in these societies.
There is no conspiracy at work, it is simply that the lenses used by science fiction writers are those given by deep cosmological codes, in this case, those of western civilization. Science fiction, which almost by definition challenges conventional paradigms, has been unable to transcend its own epistemological limitations.
In today’s pre-modern societies, the imagination of the future has not played a part in creating a scientific-technological society, nor has it helped individuals prepare for it. Rather, technological and scientific futures come from outside with few warnings. On the other hand, societies that lead the way in scientific progress also lead the way in creating spaces where the consequences of that progress can be debated, in, for example, creating a public debate on the nature of science. Only writers in western countries, claims Philip John Davies “have had the luxury of being able to indulge in an orgy of debates over definition, form, and politics [of science fiction]”[5]. Thus, the current reality that Euro-American white authors dominate science fiction.
Utopia: Past or Future
Taking a paradigmatic view, to assert that science fiction exists only in the west is merely to favour one particular form of a much wider endeavor. Science fiction thus should not merely be about the technological as defined in forward time but the creation of plausible future worlds from a range of civilizational perspectives [6]. Science fiction is not just about debating the consequences of scientific progress. It is also about creating utopian or at least eutopian (the good, not perfect) societies of the future. This utopian tradition, either in the form of utopias (positive visioning) or in the form of dystopias (warnings) is highly developed in the west. However, such a need for utopian visioning does not exist in societies that have decided that they have already lived their utopia. For example, in Islamic civilization, there is no central need for science fiction because the perfect world already existed, this was the time of the Prophet [7]. There was a perfect democratic state guided by shura (consultation) and there was a wise, perfect, leader who could unify society. The problem has been to re-achieve this state, not create other worlds. In Indian civilization as well, there was Rama Rajya, the mythical kingdom of Rama, as well the time when Krishna ruled over Bharat (India) [8].
In African culture, as well, writes John Mbiti, utopia exists in the past. Time recedes toward the Golden Age, the Zamani period [9]. It is history then that has been and remained central. This does not mean these civilizations are not future-oriented but that the imagination of the future is based on recreating an idealized past [10]. Centuries of colonization have further influenced the central need to recover the past, as the past has been systematically denied to them (either completely erased as with African-Americans or given in a mutilated form as with western developmentalism, that is, as an inferior history that must be transformed). By recovering their own authentic pasts, these societies intend to articulate their own authentic visions of the future [11].
In “Black to the Future”, Mark Dery asks: “Can a community whose past has been deliberately rubbed out, and whose energies have subsequently been consumed by the search for legible traces of its history, imagine possible futures? Furthermore, isn’t the unreal estate of the future already owned by the technocrats, futurologists, and set designers—white to a man—who have engineered our collective fantasies” [12].
Given the reality of fractured societies, can science fiction created outside the west be truly alternative or is it more likely to remain a poor imitation of western science fiction? Is there any other alternative to diminishing the influence of American frontier science fiction except by creating even more violent and even more virtual future worlds?
Can non-western writers, who are often concerned not with utopias but with eusychias—the search for the perfect self—make any sense in the futures and science fiction field? How can cultures that see the spiritual not as exotic or compartmentalized but as the foundation of life, implicated in every packet of consciousness, begin a dialogue with societies imagined in mainstream science fiction, that are replicas of individualistic, secular American/western visions? Thus not only is the future constructed differently (it is past, cyclical, spiral or ancestor-based) but instead of focusing on society, it is the imagination of the perfect self—the enlightened being—that is central to the non-west.
The Fantastic
Another reason why non-western science fiction has not developed as a separate arena of writing because in some cultures the ‘fantastic’ is part of daily life. Myth has not been separated from lived history. There is science fiction but broadly understood, with a different space, meaning and importance. For example, for Indian mystics, other worlds are realizable through astral travel, and aliens do visit the planet—to learn meditation from Indian gurus. Moreover, we are all aliens since we take birth in different planets each life. Krishna lives on Vrindavan, not heaven, but a real planet in the cosmos [13]. What are considered miracles by those in the west (bringing someone back from the dead, walking on water) are simple occult powers one gains from years of discipline. There are numerous millennia-old stories about astral travel, aliens, repossession of souls/bodies, and even mechanical/artificial human beings [14].
Star travel is a common topic in as diverse literary traditions such as the Chinese, Japanese, Australian Aboriginal, Iroquois (Mohawk) Native American and African. In the Chinese tradition there is a tale titled, “Chang E Goes to the Moon” (by Liu An, 197-122 BCE) in which a woman flies to the moon after she steals an elixir of immortality from her husband [15]. Taketori Monogatari is a 10th century Japanese “space fiction … in the genre of folklore” [16] and tells of the Princess Moonlight who first comes to Earth and then returns to the Moon [17]. According to Isao Uemichi, her popularity and the desire people have for her “may eventually turn into a yearning for the better world (the lunar paradise) to which she returned” [18].
A creation story from the Wong-gu-tha (by Mimbardda and re-told by Josie Boyle) tells of two Spirit men (from the far end of the Milky Way) and seven sisters (stars of the Milky way) who were sent to Yulbrada (the Earth) by the Creator Jindoo (the Sun) to shape it. Woddee Gooth-tha-rra (Spirit men) made the hills, the valleys, the lakes and the oceans. Seven Sisters beautified the earth with flowers, trees, birds, animals and “other creepy things”. Six sisters returned to the Milky Way but one of the sisters fell in love with the two Spirit men, and so their special powers were taken away. Two men and the woman became mortal and they became the parents of the earth, made laws and the desert people [Aboriginal Australians] [19]. In the Iroquois tradition there is “The Woman Who Fell from the Sky” [20] and in Africa, Mrs. Onyemuru, ferrywoman at Oguta Lake, tells a story of Ogbuide, the Queen of Women who comes from the moon [21].
In technologically developed societies, spaceships have replaced golden chariots but desire and myth have remained foundational. Western literature and imagination—in terms of the fantastic—has moved from Earth, the mystical world and the past to the future. This desire for the stars eventually has transformed myth into the reality. It has entered public space, while in the non-west, tales of the mysterious, alternative worlds remain in private space, in the Indian tradition, as secrets revealed to the chela by the guru.
Alternatively, it can be argued that tales of space travel can, at best, claim to be “only as prototypical predecessors of science fiction because science fiction is a distinctly modern form of literature” [22]. Having said this, it is also important to note that while science fiction has becoming increasingly a popular genre all over the world, not only prototypical predecessors but also very early works of non-western science fiction writers are being forgotten or marginalized.
Thus, the history of science fiction is written almost exclusively from its Euro-American history. Indeed, even in two civilizations with their own indigenous roots, both Wu Dingbo in China and Koichi Jamano in Japan testify that the development of contemporary Chinese and Japanese science fiction has been based on western rather than traditional stories:
Japanese writers made their debuts deeply influenced by traditional western criteria of SF. Instead of creating their own worlds, they immersed themselves totally into the translated major works of Anglo-American SF. This is like moving into a prefabricated house; the SF genre has grown into out culture regardless of whether there was a place for it [23].
Non-western Science Fiction: Creating Alternative Worlds
Such then is the blindness to tradition and the fascination with the west, that non-western writers do not use their non-western roots as a springboard for their creativity. It is crucial to remember that while conventional wisdom believes that it is Karel Capek “the man who invented robots” (the word robot derived from the Czech word robiti or robata—“to work” or “a worker”) [24] the ‘robot’ has been in the Chinese literary tradition since the fourth century.
In Zhang Zhan’s “Tangwen” in Lie Zi (The Book of Lie Zi, written around 307-313) Yanshi a clever craftsman produces a robot that is capable of singing and dancing. However, this robot keeps on staring at the emperor’s queen. This enrages the emperor who issues an order to kill Yanshi. But then Yanshi opens the robot’s chest and the emperor beholds the artificial human [25]. Robot stories also appear in 7th and 11th century China as well [26].
And while the Islamic tradition looks for its utopias in tradition, we have examples such as Rokeya Sakhawat Hossain who wrote Sultana’s Dream in 1905, a virtually unknown short story that is a predecessor of better known feminist fiction classics such as, for example, Herland (1915). Born in Pairaband, a village in what is now Bangladesh, Rokeya Sakhawat Hossain was a “courageous feminist writer and activist who worked all her life to remove what she called the ‘purdah of ignorance’” [27]. Given that most utopian imaging is political it comes as no surprise that in Sultana’s Dream, Hossain challenges the seclusion of women and their exclusion from political and economic life. In the far-off Ladyland, ladies rule over the country and control all social matters, while gentlemen are kept in the murdanas to mind babies, to cook, and to do all sorts of domestic work. Men are locked as they “do or at least are capable of doing no end of mischief” [28]. You can not trust those untrained men out of doors: it is unfair to shut in the harmless women and let loose the men, remarks sister Sara, Sultana’s conversationalist from the other world. Women in Sultana’s Dream have the difficult task of rebuilding all of society, which they do through education and science. In her utopia, Hossain builds the world without “crime or sin”, where science is used to service the society, where the Queen aims at converting the whole country into one grand garden, and where religion is based on Love and Truth. While Sultana finds herself in an ecotopia, the development of science is still seen as extremely important. The genius of this “unusual story” lies in the transformation of an issue—purdah—to represent “a whole range of patriarchal practices and ideas that shut out the possibility of another world, a world, … that could easily be realized if women were allowed to exercise the wisdom and skills they already have” [29].
Similarly, in Africa, in the continent locked in its ‘past’, Bessie Head creates through her novels better worlds, for women, for migrants, for blacks and ultimately all people. In her fiction she has sought to construct “her vision of the ideal human society—tolerant, accepting, nurturing” [30]. This vision of a harmonious and tolerant society focused on agricultural cooperatives [31] is a far cry from Bessie Head’s country of origin, South Africa during Apartheid. As a refugee in Botswana—having fled South Africa—she builds a vision of society where there is solidarity and cooperation between different genders, classes and races as an “antidote to the exclusion of tribe, race, class and gender that operates in Southern Africa” [32].
In Thai science fiction, we see in the film Kawow tee Bangpleng (Cuckoos at Bangplent, 1994, directed by Nirattisai Kaljareuk) [33] juxtaposition of the local Buddhist temple with the spacecraft. Writes commentator, Adam Knee: “ the image of an ancient statue of Buddha with the craft visible through windows behind it in particular stands as a striking and fertile emblem for the film, forcing a negotiation between Asian and alien, ancient and modern, static and mobile” [34]. The spacecraft sends out a beam that impregnates the local women. The children born are aliens. Over the length of the movie, writes Knee, it becomes clear that the goal is to take over the planet, since their home planet is dying. The local townspeople however remain sympathetic to the children since they have given birth to them and reared them. They are their’s, alien notwithstanding. Local monks—who are psychic like the alien children—as well intervene when the police are about to attack the aliens, once a series of troubling incidents begin.
Knee adds, and this is crucial in this dialogue between alien and Buddhism:
“The monk continues to try to convince Somporn [the alien leader], however, of the importance of keeping his emotions in check, as well as of ‘extending compassion’ to others, along the lines of Buddhist teachings. Somporn generally scoffs at these suggestions but… nevertheless grudgingly agrees to let some of the youths use their alien powers to help the humans when floods threaten the town. As an indirect result of their exertions, however, the youths start to fall ill and die; an autopsy reveals that another physical difference—a lack of a spleen—has rendered them susceptible to earthly diseases. The aliens realize that the planet will not sustain their race and that the survivors must return to the ship; [the alien] Somporn now comes to appreciate the monk’s message of empathy and bids him an affectionate farewell, as do the other alien children to their sobbing human parents, before ascending to the sky” [35].
Concludes Knee:
“The emphasis in Kawow then—very unlike that of most western science fiction films–is on local adaptation to rather than expulsion of the alien, which is met in turn by learning and adaptation on the part of the alien. This is made most explicit in the extensive scenes of interaction between the abbot and Somporn, the leader of the alien group and correspondingly the most recalcitrant, as well as the most disdainful of human habits and, more specifically, the Thai-Buddhist worldview” [36].
While this is partly about Buddhist notions of compassion, it is also intrinsic to some experiences of colonialism, of responding to othering by inclusion, instead of continuing the process and becoming like the dominator. The way forward then becomes an understanding of our mutual mortality, human and alien.
Science Fiction as a Marginal Genre
While there is science fiction in all cultures, it is only the west that has systematized science and fiction, made it into an industrial endeavor, and created a particular brand of literature called science fiction. Part of this process has been the privileging its own from of fiction and seeing the dreaming of others as irrelevant, as duplication/ replica/extension (Japanese science fiction, manga and anime) or naive (feminist science fiction).
However, science fiction itself has also been a marginal genre. This marginality has allowed and been a cause of its ability to open spaces for thinking the unthinkable, and exploring unknown unknowns. The marginality of science fiction in society is in direct proportion with science fiction’s radicalism. As a marginal genre, science fiction has explored ideas otherwise not cherished by the rest of mainstream/conservative society. In Russia/Soviet Union, science fiction has often allowed spaces for powerful social critique, for dissent. However, in different periods, Russian/Soviet science fiction served important social control functions: for example, to spread Bolshevism among the young, skilled, urban workers prior to the revolution or to support industrial Five Year Plans during the Stalinist era [37]. In American movies, as cinema technology advances science fiction is increasingly losing its ‘edge’ and becoming entertainment that seeks to reinforce nationalism and the power of the nation-state. Contrast the 1980’s Blade Runner with the late 1990’s Independence Day or Starship Troopers.
While packaging itself as a ‘pure entertainment’ American science fiction continues to serve social control functions. One is to prepare and de-sensitise the populace for the consequences of post-modern global capitalism. For example, the movie Gattaca, created as a ‘what if this continues’ type of scenario still serves the social function of supporting continued eugenic efforts (present since the beginning of the colonisation) of excluding the different and creating a perfect (white) human being.
The other function is what Marx has called to “dull the blade of class (and gender and minority’s or postcolonial) struggle”. For example, movies like The Matrix, Deep Impact, Armageddon, Independence Day, Mars Attacks apart from using conservative and overdone man-the-hero-saving-the-world theme are there to teach us that we should be happy with our present (social) order as the future can be much worse. High-tech progress may lead to disaster. Catharsis and relief comes after the threat to our future-as-the-continuation-of-the-present has been successfully battled and defeated. The meteor, or the comet, or aliens, or artificial intelligence or any other ‘Other’ who threaten the powerful male elite (usually combining male scientists, brilliant male outcasts and government) are after combat defeated. Patriarchy, liberalism and statism win, claiming to have liberated all and everyone.
However, there are many levels to the discourses under operation. The Matrix, for example, can be read as a metaphor for our present lives and societies (focused on material advancement) and as a call for the spiritual, in which the veil of ignorance is removed and enlightenment revealed, with all limitations seen merely as Maya, illusion (similarly to Contact). Yet these subtle spiritual meanings are drowned by the masculinist focus on power battles. For example, Keanu Reeves can be read as a clever programmer within the western frame or from a non-western Tantric, Vedic or Buddhist frame as a bodhisattva, returning to liberate our selves trapped by technocracy and materialism. The medium becomes the message, massaging us into a light speed of violence. These movies certainly fail to become a tool that can “subvert the central myths of origin of western Culture with their longing for fulfillment in apocalypse” [38]. Ultimately, Reeves or Neo becomes neither programmer nor bodhisattva, instead sacrificing self for the good of peace, becomes the Christ savior returned. The Matrix Revolutions – even as it challenges notions of life, machine, human and virtual – is foundationally Christian (sacrifice and Christ the savior) and Western technological (we make tools and thereafter they make us). However, it does attempt to challenge the ego of the West (linear, crisis based, technological) with the alter-ego of the West (feminine, green, organic). The Oracle thus becomes the gaian shakti figure countering the male architect of the Matrix and hyper-masculinity of Machine city (and its sperm-line machines swarming Zion). Thus some layering is there. However, if other cultural myths had been used as resources, far more depth would have been possible. But other cultures are not seen as real unto themselves.
Thus another role current mainstream science fiction plays in American and subsequently global society is to ‘other’ difference. This is most often done by projecting difference onto the alien. Our terrestrial differences are not owned, rather, they are exported into outer space (foreign space). The alien does not only help create our identity (in terms of the binary oppositions) but is also seen as a danger to us and should consequently be exterminated. The ‘othering’ of the difference can also be done through picturing the other in total submission. One example is The Handmaiden’s Tale, a powerful feminist critique transformed into voyeuristic feast for patriarchal males and serving a similar social function as the pornographic, The Story of O. It also encourages us to think that our current patriarchy does not look that bad after all. Women are also the monsters of the future, writes Rosi Braidotti in her essay, “Cyberteratologies,” aptly subtitled, “Female Monsters Negotiate the Other’s Participation in Humanity’s Far Future.” [39] Argues Braidotti:” Contemporary social imaginary .. directly blames women for postmodernity’s crisis of identity. In one of those double binds that occur so often in regard to representing those people marked as different, women are portrayed as unruly elements who should be controlled – represented as so many cyber-Amazons in need of governance.” [40] Women as monster becomes the future, with the solution that of Superman and the Superstate taking over the role of birthing and caring.
Yet another way in which the othering of the difference is done is by ridiculing the Other. One example is in the highest grossing movie in 1999, Star Wars: Episode One, The Phantom Menace. One can get a sense of the worldview of Lucas and others by simply analysing the accents and sites of action. The Jedi Knights speak with western (a mix of British/West Coast American) accents (that is, in terms of today’s categories of accents, no accent at all). They are the highest of humanity. The lowest are those who live on the planet Tatooine. They are made to look like Muslim Arabs. But they are just uncivilized and not to be worried about. The danger comes from the Trade Federation. They speak with a mixture of an East Asian and Eastern European accent, the twin dangers to the west—East Asia in terms of creating a new economic system, and Eastern Europe as the (orthodox, not reinvented) traditionalism of the west. And what of Africans and Islanders? They are, of course, not quite real, as in all mythologies, friendly natives, slightly silly, happy-go-lucky (in Star Wars, the Gungans, the underwater race on Naboo). Of course, this typology was denied by Lucas, as it should be, how could he see the air he breathes, fish cannot deconstruct water, and the west is unable to see the world it has penned. But while it appears that the mythic brilliance of the movie is that real evil comes from within, from the west itself, in the form of the desire for more power, the emperor (Senator and later Emperor Palpatine); this, however, ends up being a jingoistic concern with democracy, with the American way of Life. Essentially it is a battle of democracy against despotism, with the good guys a mixture of Californian pop mysticism and true democracy, and the bad guys as foreigners and as those who engage in trade wars. The latest Star Wars installment thus even as if it appears that it is venturing into worlds far away, in fact, reinscribes present constructions of self and other, west and Non-west.
This analysis is not meant as a contribution to postmodern cultural critique but as a pointer of dangers ahead. Our collective imaginations become deadened as Star Wars becomes the naturalized form of science fiction. Other cultures see themselves as less, and either seek vengeance through religious extremism or create schizophrenic personalities in which they other themselves. Globalism continues it march onwards, reducing the possibility of alternative futures, particularly from others. Current science fiction forgets that we are all migrants to the future.
Frank Herbert’s Dune (the 2001 TV/video release as well as the earlier 1984 movie) appears to move away from this construction of the other, by empowering the freman, the others in the movie. However, at a deeper level, the other is either ridiculed or seen as the romantic warrior, the mystic—Orientalized. Removed from civilization, the freman are intimate with the desert, and develop a mystic bond with the spice. Their mystical power is countered to the technological prowess of the Emperor and the House of Harkonnens. And yet, they do not find their salvation through their own agency, but it is the ‘white’ Paul Atredis (as Lawrence of Arabia has done on this planet) who comes and saves them. He does go native, however, taking the freman name of Muad’Dib. It is not in them to develop or be victorious, it takes the overlord, the ruling class to provide freedom. Their ‘humanity’ is denied to them. And, their freedom does not transform the structure of feudalism but continues class rule, however, it is now the kinder House of Atredis that will now rule Thus, what appears as victory for the warrior and mystical freman is in fact a continuation of colonization. It is traditional linear macrohistory—The Orient cannot develop through its own creativity, it must be developed by the civilized. The style of speaking, the clothes all make clear that this is a battle within Europe (the emperor versus the Harkonnes versus the Atredis) with the freman (Bedouins) merely the backdrop to their cosmic intrigue. And nature—the worms—they are of course conquered by Paul Muad’Dib Atredis. With nature conquered, the non-west liberated, the evil powers in Europe defeated—and the spice (oil) safe—humanity can once again prosper. The empire is dead. Long live the empire.
From Space to High Noon
Far more obvious is how Star Wars and other science fiction functions to ‘push the western frontier’. Gregory Pfitzer claims that the most persistent myth in American culture, that of the frontier, has shown remarkable resilience since its firstly emerged in the 18th century [41]. In our times, what was once projected westward is now simply projected upward and outward [42]. “Western cowboys [are transformed] into space cowboys, high-noon gunfights into celestial shootouts, and frontier expansion into the politics of space ownership on the high frontier” [43]. Pfitzer concludes that such outdated frontier mythologies are doing American society damage: they do not help shape beneficial cultural self-images, bear little relationship to present realities and threaten to bind people too tightly to highly conventional, form-bound ideologies. He believes that new mythologies need to be considered, mythologies that will serve the culture better, especially those that “reverse exploitation and racism while prescribing more realistic avenues for public action” [44]. More recently, the frontier has gone from space to virtuality.
Some examples of how this is being done exist even in American society. For example, recent versions of the popular series Star Trek (Voyager and Deep Space Nine) challenges many of our old mythologies and given identities. And even more so is the work of African-American authors, for example, Samuel Delany and Octavia Butler.
Ways Out
Labeled as “the only African-American woman writing science-fiction” Octavia Butler’s work challenges not only patriarchal myths, but also capitalist myths, racist myths, and feminist-utopian myths [45]. She also challenges “the binary oppositions of alien and non-alien, insider and outsider, masculine and feminine”, [46] undoing the essentialisms of tradition and modernity. Butler’s characters seem to face the same issue and dilemma: “they must force themselves to evolve, accepting differences and rejecting a world view that centers upon their lives and values, or become extinct” [47]. While in most science fiction the alien is seen as the (potential) destroyer of the human race, for Butler, aliens can save and improve the human race and also themselves. Cooperation is necessary, as often the only alternative is extinction. But the other is both external and internal. “The self and the other cannot exist separately. They are defined by one another, a central part of each other’s identity”, [48] and there is even the “desire for the alien, the other, for difference within ourselves” [49]. Butler’s work seem to suggest that old mythologies that produce “the hierarchies of center and margins, of colonizer and colonized, of alien and other, no longer provide an appropriate or adequate vocabulary with which to articulate the possibilities for change” [50]. In the words of Octavia Butler:
Human Beings fear difference… Oankali crave difference. Humans persecute their different ones, yet they need them to give themselves definition and status. Oankali seek difference and collect it. They need it to keep themselves from stagnation and overspecialization…when you feel a conflict, try to go the Oankali way. Embrace difference. [51]
The Politics and Futures of Science Fiction
“‘Fantasies’, of course, are never ideologically ‘innocent’ texts” [52]. But fantasies, including science fiction ones, can serve conservative ideologies that promote old divisions and interests of the dominant social/cultural/racial/gender group. Or they can serve ideologies which would unable us all to move forward and create truly innovative future societies. Science fiction images do not merely reflect our current anxieties and desires. Through their powerful visualisation they create the need for what is seen and encourage efforts to duplicate in the future, science fiction’s déjà vu. The litanies of our lives crave for myths to give them meaning. In turn, myths help create future litanies, as either their extensions or their oppositions. Science fiction and how it ‘others’ us, how it continues a particular civilization’s domination by assuming others do not have a science fiction or defining itself in exclusive terms (such that other cultures visions are merely the naively impossible) becomes part of the naturalising discourse of domination. However, science fiction with its focus on creating alternative world, on liberating us from our own mythologies, limitations, plays a pivotal role in liberating us from our own slaveries.
The Political-Economy of Imagination
If left alone, science fiction will continue its present role in supporting the cultural project of the only surviving ‘Empire’ at the beginning of the Third millennia (as time counted by the west).
Contemplating on the reasons for the explosion of science fiction and space fiction in our time, science fiction writer Doris Lessing claims that this explosion is happening because the nature of the human mind is undergoing an expansion process, it is being forced to expand [53]. She further states that science fiction and space fiction writers must explore “the sacred literatures of the world in the same bold way they take scientific and social possibilities to their logical conclusions…[We] make a mistake when we dismiss [sacred literature of all races and nations] as quaint fossils from a dead past” [54]. The rich traditions of many people of the world will make such science and utopian fiction of the future enormously exciting. It will be able to express the voices of peoples silenced by hundreds of years of western monoculture, of world capitalism. Science fiction can be a medium for not only subversion but also for the development of the authentic futures.
Writes Marge Piercy on feminist science fiction:
“One characteristic of societies imagined by feminists is how little isolated women are from each other. Instead of the suburban dream turned nightmare in which each house contained a woman alone and climbing the walls, or the yuppie apartment house where no one speaks but each has perfect privacy in her little electronic box, the societies women dream up tend to b a long coffee klatches or permanent causal meetings. Everybody is in everybody else’s hair .. society is decentralized .. nurturing is a strong value .. communal responsibility for a child begins at home.” [55]
The vision is certainly pastoral with Earth Rolling along. [56]
Of course, authentic futures are limited by the nature of the market. For example, in Latin America “most science fiction is brief, embodied in short stories rather then in novels … [which] … is due to the fact that it is more feasible to publish short fiction than to publish longer stories, as the editorial industry as well as the market is limited” [57].
There is also a great danger of producing “fragmented and inconsistent images … from the modern and premodern eras … interwoven with new and surprising cultural elements” [58]—of becoming cultural and “literary imposters as New Age Pipecarriers for any and all of The Nations” creating colonising visions that would surpass even the traditional ones.
Even lumping all non-western science fiction into one entity means submerging it into the category of ‘the Rest’ as defined by the Empire. It is therefore also important to remember that even within the category of ‘the Rest’ different others have different status, role and image being ascribed to them. The best science fiction undoes the defining categories it begins with.
Also, apart from ‘responding’ to dominant future images produced in the west as well as looking at possible prototypes or cultural predecessors, non-western science fiction writers need to fill in the empty spaces, create alternative histories and imagine past visions of the future as if they had been written.
Still the reality is that “Black Women do not have time to dream”, argue Miriam Tlali and Pamela Ryan [59]. While we should look at the conditions that have prevented Black Women from dreaming, black women of today can reinvent these past future images for their foremothers. Some of those visions have been expressed in traditional cultures, some in past and present grass-root women’s movements in the Third World; movements that are simultaneously challenging poverty, racism and colonisation as well as gender subordination. While indigenous history has been often erased and the technocratic visions of tomorrow reign supreme it is never too late to rediscover one’s own original direction.
Science Fiction and the Future of the Other
Generally mainstream science fiction has not done so well writing the other, even though ultimately everything it is about is the other. This precisely because science fiction has largely become framed by one culture. And this is why it is important (while acknowledging the danger of being lumped into ‘the Rest’) to encourage the search, valorization, and publication of science fiction (in its broadest sense) around the world.
It is also important to see the future, science fiction, within the historical and cultural terms of other civilizations, not merely rescuing them within the dominant themes of the west, but also developing the process of an authentic conversation and dialogue about self and other; space and future; alien and human.
To do this we must rescue dominant science fiction from its own paradigmatic blinders, showing how it continues the project of one-culture hegemony. What must be encouraged is a dialogue of visions of the future and past across civilization, such that authenticity from each civilization can lead to a new universal of what it means to be human and not human.
This of course holds true not only for science fiction but also for futures studies (utopian studies, etc) as well as scholarship in general. Nothing could be more important as we create a world for future generations for all of us. The desire to dream is the universal endeavor of us, humans, appearing all over the globe, even at the most unexpected places (for example, woman writing science/utopian fiction in Bangladesh at the very beginning of the Twentieth century). To culturally appropriate this desire and submerge into not only one genre, but also one history and a few themes is to deny the realities of our terrestrial past, present and future lives. We can dream otherwise.
Notes:
1. Butler O. quoted in Wolmark J. Aliens and Others: Science Fiction, Feminism and Postmodernism. Iowa City: University of Iowa Press; 1994:28.
2. Ibid.
3. Suvin D. Positions and Presuppositions in Science Fiction. London: Macmillan Press, 1988. See especially chapter 8: “Three World Paradigms for SF: Asimov, Yefremov, Lem”. For a website devoted to definitions of science fiction, see: http://www.panix.com/~gokce/sf_defn.html. The site states: Science fiction is really sociological studies of the future, things that the writer believes are going to happen by putting two and two together. Accessed, October 12, 2000.
4. Ibid.
5. Davies P J. Science fiction and conflict. In: Davies P, editor. Science Fiction, Social Conflict, and War. Manchester: Manchester University Press; 1990:5.
6. Discussion with Frederik Pohl over lunch, April 15, Seattle, Washington, Foundation for the Future symposium on Humanity in the Year 3000. See: www.futurefoundation.org. Also see, Pohl F. The Politics of Prophecy. In: Hassler D, Wilcox C, editors. Political Science Fiction. Columbia, South Carolina: University of South Carolina; 1997.
7. El-Affendi A. Who Needs an Islamic State? London: Grey Seal, 1991.
8. See Inayatullah S. Indian Philosophy, Political. In: Craig E, editor. Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy. London: Routledge Press; 1998.
9. Case F I. Negritude and Utopianism. In: Jones ED, African Literature Today. New York: African Publishing Company; 1975:70.
10. See Inayatullah S. Toward a Post-Development Vision of the Future: The Shape and Time of the Future. In: Slaughter R, editor. The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies: Directions and Outlooks. Vol. 3. Melbourne: DDM Publishers; 1996:113-126.
11. See Galtung J, Inayatullah S, editors. Macrohistory and Macrohistorians. Westport, Connecticut: Praeger, 1997. Also see, Sardar Z, Nandy A, Wyn Davies M. Barbaric Others: A Manifesto of Western Racism. London: Pluto Press, 1993, and Sardar Z, editor. Rescuing All Our Future: The Futures of Futures Studies. Twickenham, England: Adamantine Press, 1999.
12. Dery M. Black to the Future: Interviews with Samuel R. Delany, Greg Tate, and Tricia Rose. The South Atlantic Quarterly 1993; 92(3-4):736.
13. See, Back to Godhead. The magazine of the Hare Krishna Movement. PO Box 255, Sandy Ridge, NC, 27046, USA.
14. For example, the first known description of the ‘robot’ comes from fourth century China. From: Wu Dingbo, Chinese Science Fiction. In: Dingbo W, Murphy PD, editors. Handbook of Chinese Popular Culture. Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood Press; 1994:258.
15. Ibid.
16. Uemichi I S. Japanese Science-Fiction in the International Perspective. In: Bauer R, et al., editors. Proceedings of the XIIth Congress of the International Comparative Literature Association: Space and Boundaries in literature. Munich: International Comparative Literature Association; 1988.
17. Ibid.
18. Ibid.
19. Stories of the Dreaming: http://www.dreamtime.net.au/seven/text.htm
20. Gunn Allen P. Spider Woman’s Granddaughters: Traditional Tales and Contemporary Writing by Native American Women. New York: Fawcett Columbine, 1989:65.
21. Umeh M. Signifyin(g) The Griottes; Flora Nwapa’s Legacy of (Re)Vision and Voice. Research in African Literatures 1995; 26(2): 114.
22. Dingbo W:259.
23. Jamano K. Japanese SF, Its Originality and Orientation (1969). Science-Fiction Studies 1994; 21(1): 70.
24. Moskowitz S, Capek K. The man who invented robots. In: Moskowitz S. Explorers of the Infinite Westport, Connecticut: Hyperion Press Inc.; 1963:208, 211.
25. Dingbo W:258.
26. Dingbo W:259.
27. Tharu S, Lalita K. Women Writing in India. New York, The City University of New York: The Feminist Press, 1991:340.
28. Hossain R. Sultana’s Dream. In: Tharu S, Lalita K:344.
29. Tharu S, Lalita K:167
30. Kibera V. Adopted Motherlands: The Novels of Marjorie Macgoye and Bessie Head. In: Nasta S, editor. Motherlands: Black Women’s Writing from Africa, the Caribbean and South Asia. New Brunswick, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press; 1992:315.
31. Head B. When Rain Clouds Gather. London: Heinemann, New Windmill Series, 1968:22.
32. Kibera V:326.
33. Knee A. Close encounters of the generic kind: a case study in Thai sci-fi. At: http://www.latrobe.edu.au/screeningthepast/current/cc1100.html.
34. Ibid.
35. Ibid.
36. Ibid.
37. Rosenberg K. Soviet Science Fiction: To The Present Via the Future. Massachusetts: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Alumni Association, 1987.
38. Haraway D. Cyborg Manifesto:175. Quoted in Miller J. Post-Apocalyptic Hoping: Octavia Butler’s Dystopia/Utopian Vision. Science-Fiction Studies 1998: 25(2):338.
39. Rosi Braidotti, “ Cyberteratologies: Female Monsters Negotiate the Other’s Participation in Humanity’s Far Future,” in Marlene S. Barr, ed. Envisioning the Future: Science Fiction and the Next Millennium. Middletown, Ct, Wesleyan University Press, 2003, 146-172.
40. Ibid, 163.
41. Pfitzer GM. The Only Good Alien Is a Dead Alien: Science Fiction and the Metaphysics of Indian-Hating on the High Frontier., Journal of American Culture 1995;18(1):51. The animated film Toy Story is one example of how the similarity and tension between Woodie the cowboy and Buzz Lightyear is worked out.
42. Ibid.
43. Ibid.
44. Pfitzer GM:65
45. Miller J. Post Apocalyptic Hoping: Octavia Butler’s Dystopian/Utopian Vision. Science-Fiction Studies 1998; 25(2):337.
46. Wolmark J. Aliens and Others. Iowa City: University of Iowa Press, 1994:28.
47. Green ME. There Goes the Neighborhood: Octavia Butler’s Demand for Diversity in Utopias. In: Domawerth JM, Komerten CA, editors. Utopian and Science Fiction by Women: Worlds of Difference. Syracuse, New York: Syracuse University Press; 1994:169. The best of south Asian fiction as well portrays these dilemmas. See the works of Saadat Hasan Manto.
48. Miller J:346.
49. Peppers K. Dialogic Origins and Alien Identities in Butler’s Xenogenesis. Science-Fiction Studies 1995; 22(1):60.
50. Wolmark J:35.
51. Butler O. Adulthood Rites. Quoted in Green ME:189.
52. Pearson J. Where no man has gone before: sexual politics and women’s science fiction. In: Davies PJ, editor. Science Fiction, Social Conflict, and War. Manchester: Manchester University Press; 1990:9.
53. For the works of Doris Lessing, see, http://lessing.redmood.com/
54. Ibid. Exact quote citation missing.
55. Marge Piercy, “Love and Sex in the Year 3000,” in Marlene S. Barr, ed. Envisioning the Future: Science Fiction and the Next Millennium. Middletown, Ct, Wesleyan University Press, 2003, 137
56. Ibid.
57. Kreksch I. Reality Transfigured: The Latin American Situation as Reflected in Its Science Fiction. In: Hassler DM, Wilcox C. Political Science Fiction. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1997:178.
58. Willard W. Pipe Carriers of The Red Atlantis: Prophecy/Fantasy. Wicazo Sa Review: A Journal of Native American Studies 1994; X(1):25.
59. Ryan P. Black Women Do Not Have Time to Dream: The Politics of Time and Space. Tulsa Studies in Women’s Literature 1992; 11(Spring):95-102.
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An earlier version of this paper appeared in Futures (Vol 35, No. 5, 493-507).
Ivana Milojevic is a postdoctoral research fellow at the Graduate School of Education, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072. ivanam@mailbox.uq.edu.au. Her forthcoming book for Routledge is titled Postwestern and Feminist Futures of Education.
Sohail Inayatullah is Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan and University of the Sunshine Coast. He is co-editor of the Journal of Futures Studies and Associate Editor of New Renaissance. His books published in 2002 include: Understanding Sarkar; Transforming Communication; Questioning the Future; and, Youth Futures. s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au and info@metafuture.org, www.metafuture.org
Epistemes and the Long Term Future (2002)
By Sohail Inayatullah
Epistemes are the larger and deeper paradigms of knowledge – reality – that contextualize the boundaries of what can be known. They interact with social, economic, technological and intellectual developments. At the most simple, epistemic history is seen in three stages: ancient (Greek or Roman), medieval (Christian middle ages) and modern (rise of the West), with the postmodern (the collapse of grand narratives) being the next likely stage. In the Indian context, this is read as ancient (Hindu), medieval (Muslim) and modern (British/nationalism).
Economy and technology
Alternatively, more focused on economy as pivotal, grand thinkers argue for an agricultural, industrial and postindustrial schema, with these categories created by the means of production and the types of work done in each historical stage. This division allows theorists to argue for future stages such as a services age or even an artistic age. Likewise, Comte and Spencer, whose categories of history and future are those that we live today, gave us primitive, modern and scientific (positivism) as historical stages, with the latter for all practical purposes being the final stage when truth is known, and all that is left to is to implement social and scientific laws. It is this latter assumption of a unified historical and future framework, an unbroken grand narrative of social evolution, that guides many forecasts – probable, plausible, possible. They do not take into account the possibility of the entire framework of what is we consider nature and truth changing, of the emergence of new nominations of significance, of fundamental discontinuity. Believing that the future will be data-led – focused only on current dominant drivers (economy or technology), we get logical scenarios based on short-run current understandings.
Alas, if only history and future were so simple. A macrohistorical view shows us quite the opposite, that all attempts to postulate the end of history, or the unending continuation of a particular social formation – whether capitalism or liberalism or modernism or communism or the religious vision of “heaven on earth” – are doomed to fail.
This is partly because the mechanisms of civilizational change are not only exogenous (planet change, asteroids) and endogenous (creativity, drive to dominate, dialectics) but interactive and mysterious, that is, unknown, epistemologically discontinuous. Seen from this perspective the shape of the future of knowledge comes out quite differently.
Cyclical history and futures
The Indian philosopher P. R. Sarkar is perhaps most instructive. He finds evidence for four stages: worker, warrior, intellectual (priest) and merchant. Each social stage defines what is truth, the natural and the beautiful, more so each stage defines what is of significance. After the merchant stage, the cycle starts over. Thus to forecasts which assert that economic globalization will continue unabated, Sarkar points out that historically all systems exaggerate a particular type of power. Thinking forward 1000 years, we can well imagine the cycle going through many stages, with the current globalization of capital eventually leading to a globalization of labor, which will possibly lead to a more disciplined unified martial society (which will likely expand to outerspace, as martial civilizations tend to do, expand outward, that is). This stage of World Empire will then lead to another era where ideas about God and truth will flourish. Overtime, there will be a decline since intellectual ideals will not be able to deal with other factors of reality, leading to yet another focus on economics and wealth creation.
Sorokin also finds evidence of non-linearity in history. He posits that historical change follows the pattern of the pendulum. Civilizations move backward and forward between ideational societies focused only on the nature of truth to sensate civilizations focused on pleasure and capital accumulation. Each one swings too far, with integrative stages appearing on occasion. Thus, we should expect to see in the next hundred or so years, a swing away from the sensate to the ideational. In a 1000 years, there will be additional swings, a few hundreds year of each.
Emergence and evolution
The main point is that all systems are to some extent patterned and change is intrinsic in them. This is far more complex then the lay view that the decline follows the rise (although certainly there is historical truth to this) since there is novelty, emergence. As Vico wrote hundreds of years ago, the laws of social change are soft, the past never repeats in the same way.
Certainly then there is a role for individuals, for new technologies, for grand social movements, for bifurcation as Ilya Prigogine and other modern scientists have argued. However, is as well, argues Arnold Toynbee, imitation and thus eventual decline. But with all generational decline, a new era can be ushered in by a creative minority. However, there are not endless possibilities to social structure, to the shape of the new era. There are only a few possible evolutionary structures (at this stage, at least): local, self-reliant culture systems; a new world church (ideational); a new world empire; or the “Wallersteinian” mixture of local polities and a world economy – the capitalist world economy we have today. There are not an endless array of social choices, just as for humans, biology and genetics “determine” the shape of what we are.
As with modern/postmodern thinkers, for grand cyclical historians, novelty too is part of the macroscope of time. For Sarkar and Sorokin, the pattern of history can change through directed leadership, directed social evolution. The cycle of history can be transformed to the spiral, the progressive movement of social evolution toward a more ideal society. However, the basic evolutionary pattern of the cycle – in Sarkar’s theory of worker/martial/intellectual/merchant – cannot change since these are evolutionary, historically developed. Exploitation and human misery, war and domination can be ended but history does not end, there are always new challenges.
For Sorokin, there are only five ways to answer the question of what is real, what is true. Either the ideational world is truth; the sensate world is truth; both are true; the question is not important; or one can never know. Of the latter two categories, no civilization can be created. From the former three, we get the ideational, sensate and integrated epochs. Johan Galtung has added the notion of contraction and expansion arguing that civilizations are often in different phases to each other. For example, the West and Islam are in counter-cyclical phases, taking turns being in contraction and expansion modes. Chinese philosopher Ssu-Ma Chi’en, in contrast, saw history and future less in the context of bifurcation, of transformation, and more in terms of a harmony cycle. When the leader follows the tao, that which is essentially natural, then civilization flourishes, virtue reigns, however, overtime leaders degenerate and move away from learning. Virtue degenerates and harmony disappears. Eventually, however, a new leader appears, a sage-king, and equilibrium is restored. The future then for Ssu-ma Chi’en can best be understand by examining how closely leadership is virtuous.
There are thus structural limitations as to what is possible, there are historical evolutionary patterns. But what is crucial of this discussion is that it is not just new technologies or human creativity that will create the future, but that these stages are the larger epistemes which define what is the true, the good and the beautiful, that frames how we think about the future. Epistemes do change – great humans create new discourses that change the nature of what it is to be; new technologies transform the nature of reality; and grand natural events as well change reality. Thus, while macrohistorians give us patterns which will structure the future of society, these structures evolve interactively with the new (and many times the “new” is merely ephemeral, an old form that looks different because the epistemic basis of intelligibility, of recognition have changed).
Contextualizing factors
Often, however, we investigate the latter, and not the former, creating realities, that while interesting, do not give us insight into the mechanisms of past and future, since they do not account for the grant structures in history – the patterns of social and civilizational change. The factors analysed are done so from a short term data-heavy perspective, forgetting the overall episteme that shapes what constitutes data. Instead of breaking new ground into the long-term factors impacting the future, forecasts merely restate the current politics of reality. While they assume that there will be fantastic new technologies or events they hold stable the foundational nature of reality, not contesting the epistemological and civilizational basis of political, economics and society.
However, by focusing on episteme we can gain a sense of what will be the overall paradigm of what it means to be human. The future nature of epistemes thus becomes a factor that interacts with forecasts of new technologies (external nature-domination or internal self-domination, for example), new movements, and new societies.
The best tack then is to develop a complex knowledge base of the future that is data, value and episteme oriented, that is thus inclusive of structure and agency, at individual, national, civilizational and planetary levels.