The Asia-Pacific Futures Network (APFN) Conference was held on August 28th and 29th 2018 in Bangkok. APFN partnered with the National Innovation Agency of Thailand to host the event, titled Asia Imagined: Disruptions and Alternative Futures. The conference offered a thinking space for futurists to identify emerging issues and new trends, reflect on their possible impacts and the new stories and possible futures they pose for Asia. Full text in Pdf
Category Archives: Asia-Pacific Futures
The Futures of Karachi (2018)
Given congestion, inter-ethnic violence, persistent pollution, and lack of clean water, is there a possibility that Karachi can be different by 2030? 15 experts in the areas of biosciences, media communication, child education and investing met for two days to explore the
alternative futures of Karachi. The workshop was facilitated by the UNESCO chair for futures studies, Professor Sohail Inayatullah with assistance from Puruesh Chaudhary, director of Agahi and founder of the Pakistan State of the Future Index. Full text in Pdf
Pakistan, Leadership, and Cricket (1992)
Many of us are thinking that Imran Khan should run for Prime Minister or better yet President (with Miandad and company as his cabinet). He has been among the few Pakistanis who has taken a group of us and succeeded in uniting us through a common purpose. In Mushahid Hussain’s recent article in The Nation he argues that the success at Melbourne had three factors generally considered missing in Pakistan: leadership, discipline and planning.
Mushahid’s linking cricket to politics should not be seen as a spurious. The Indian writer Ashis Nandy has explored similar links in his book The Tao of Cricket. In his book he explores the connections between cricket and morality. The batsman, if he knows he is out, must declare himself so. He is not to, as in other sports, hope that the umpire did not see or hear the ball nick his bat. The bowler is morally bound to bowl a good bowl even if it the last ball of the match and it may cost his team the victory. But this Victorian gentlemen’s view of morality does not quite fit into the modern world. As with football where winning has become more important than the beauty of the game (Maradona, for example and the goal he scored with his hand), cricket is beginning to enter the modern era. Previously wars were fought with clear formal rules of behavior. Modern war has changed that; victory is promised through accelerating time, through removing citizen and soldier from the battlefield. Death is anonymous.
While a metaphor for modern battle, cricket has not gone to such a transformation. Certainly the switch from the test match to the one-day international has sponsoring linkages. Television enthusiasm, viewer likes for a quick game (quick war), and advertising dollars has made this a necessity. At the same time, the quickening of time has allowed the possibility of a world championship. There need not be long wars and battles fought over many decades. A “ruler of the world”, as the motto of this World Cup, can be anointed in a few weeks. But cricket does appear to be the place from which we can rule the world, much safer and a better use of our resources than military build-up, nuclear ambitions, or a range of other attempts to gain security and sovereignty. We can rise up in the world of sports not war. Economic affluence and cultural unity appear to be better indicators of sovereignty than a huge military.
To do this as important as leadership, discipline and planning is unity, discipline and faith, the motto for Pakistan. The team had a strong sense of unity. There was no slandering of individual players when mistakes were made, rather others picked up the slack. Each player rose to the level needed to succeed. Can one imagine a unified Pakistan?
The team also showed incredible discipline. There were no attempts at an easy victory. When Pakistan was down, it would been have been easy to panic and slog away. Instead, the batters built a solid base from which Inzamamul Haq and Wasim Akram could thrash away. Can one imagine a disciplined Pakistan which doesn’t go for easy money, or easy land, or easy politics? Can one imagine a Pakistan which grows step by step and redistributes this wealth throughout the country, instead of individuals–generals, feudals, politicians–running after the quick win, the quick get rich or get powerful scheme?.
The players and team also showed incredible faith. In the semi-finals and finals they had this look in their eyes. In every competition, it is the eyes that tell who will win. England had a look of fear. They did not believe they could win. Pakistan did. Can one imagine a Pakistan built on faith, on this inner sense of courage. Not in the sense who is the truest Muslim since only Allah, not maulvis, Shariat courts, or next door neighbors can know what is in our hearts (irrespective of how many trips to Mecca, or hours of prayer, or days of fasting), but a faith convinced that the impossible is possible, that a Pakistan based on equity and justice can be realized.
A country with unity, discipline and faith would not have gang-rapes of females, would not have political parties abandoning any sense of human ethics to extract vengeance, would not have despair caused by years of the citizenry being brutalized by security and police forces in the name of “law and order”, would not have a collective feeling of inferiority caused by comparisons with other richer nations, would not have an everpresent anarchy caused by views that since the bureaucracy is so corrupt and every leader is out for himself, I should get what I can before it is too late. It would be a different sort of Pakistan. And as the cricket team has shown us, it would not take that much. Notions of equal justice before the law, due process, the linking of wage ratios between the highest and lowest, tolerance of the views of others (instead of condemnations that they do not represent the Truth), and decentralizing the economy are not that difficult to achieve. But to do that, honesty about our situation, our history must come first. Pakistan could not win the championship until the team could assess what went wrong in Lahore in the previous championship. They did not try and brush aside their defeat in the 1987 semi-finals claiming that it was ordained or give some type of ideological explanation to it. Rather there was a critical analysis: where were the mistakes, how can we not make them again, and what areas of excellence can be improved on. This is a different approach then the typical approach in Pakistan which merely glorifies our history, our mission in the Muslim world, or South Asia, or the planet (of course, silently everyone whispers stories of betrayal) and our founders. As in sports, mistakes are made but these can be discussed and changes made, unless history has become a dogma merely restated over and over until all believe the lie. We should remember the honesty of poets like Faiz who reminded of our own deceits.
Returning to cricket, we should take seriously Khan’s suggestions for improving cricket in the nation, that is, for building a professional cricket system. But the tenor of these suggestions could apply for the political system as a whole. It would be sad for four years to have gone by and not seen any improvements: in the cricket bodies and the political bodies. Inertia and the past would have once again been victorious then.
Of course, all this is not argue that we should forget our past. It is our traditional culture that made the championship a joy to watch: hugs and smiles after each wicket taken, a strong sense of morality, bowing in prayer after the victory, and instead of a trip to Disneyland, as in American football where the victors go, a trip of thanks and submission, a trip to Mecca. We can take our past with us as we march into the future. Of course, while trips to Mecca are one thing, the State giving plots of land is another. I would rather see land going to the millions of farmers and laborers slaving away just trying to meet their basic needs. We should remember it was land reform that was the catalyst in the economic miracles of East Asia.
But this is not the time to wallow in our mistakes, rather it is a time to rejoice, to enjoy the disciplined flair that won the championship. There is much to build on. This world championship has shown us that it is possible. While some would want Imran Khan (or Javed Miandad, or Mushtaq Ahmed, or any of the other team members) for President, I would prefer that there be a thousand Imran Khans working in equitable structures where they could flourish. Can it be done? Pakistan’s delightful victory has shown us that it can. Perhaps 1996 or 2002 can be targets for this type of championship as well.
Published in The Muslim, April 23, 1992.
Futures of Pakistan (2008)
Essay on the Future of Pakistan: Possible Scenarios
Beyond the pendulum of the general and the landlord-politician: Understanding and creating alternative futures and scenarios for Pakistan
By Sohail Inayatullah
Professor, Tamkang University, University of the Sunshine Coast, and Prout College.
In this essay, I outline Five futures for Pakistan: (1) the Pendulum continues forever, (2) Collapse, (3) Joining Chindia, (4) the Great Game, and (5) a South Asian Confederation. The most familiar and likely are based on the pendulum of rule by the military and rule by landlord/politicians. However, what is needed is to move from the more likely and less desirable futures to a process of anticipatory democracy where the citizens of Pakistan consider, create and commit to building their preferred future.
DEEP STRUCTURES
While the assassination of Benazir Bhutto certainly plunged Pakistan into one of its works crisis in decades, the recent successful elections appear to have brought hope back again. The extremist parties did poorly, and even with a low turn out and election violence, it appears that the latest cycle of military rule is over.
Yes, much remains unresolved. Certainly as Nathan Gardels argues in his article, “Bhutto’s elimination a big boost for al-Qa’ida,” the West did lose track of the prize, focusing on Iraq instead of on Islamabad. It is in Pakistan where the future of the Islamic world lies. In addition to the Afghanistan Taliban, there is now a Pakistani Taliban. Nuclearization continues. Civil society is still vulnerable to internal and external shocks. Can politicians create a secular democratic Pakistan? Or will the politics of Jihadism continue, with Kashmir returning as the battle front?
While these issues are important in understanding Pakistan’s future, we often forget the deep archetypes and structures (inner symbols and external patterns) in Pakistani politics. These delimit what is possible.
Syed Abidi’s Doctoral dissertation at the University of Hawaii, titled Social change and the Politics of Religion in Pakistan made the observation that Pakistan’s political system can best be understood as a pendulum between civilian rule and military rule.
The first stage was from 1947-1958 and was characterized by the Parliamentary system with the dominant class interest being the feudal land owners. The second stage was from 1958-1968. This was martial law with an American presidential system and saw the rise of the capitalist class. The third stage – from 1968-1977 – saw the end of Martial law (with a presidential and parliamentary system) and the beginning of the Bhutto era and the return of feudalism.
With the coup by General Zia in 1977, military rule returned and the capitalist class was back in power. The fourth stage had begun. This ended with his assassination in 1988.
The fifth stage was characterized by civilian rule (Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Shariff) until Pervez Musharraf conducted his own coup in 1999 and began the sixth stage. With the events of 9/11, globalization and the rise of the internet, this phase has seen the return of the capitalist class.
In 2008 the seventh stage of Pakistan’s politics appears to have begun. The military era is about to end and the civilians will be back in power – either in the guise of Musharraf the democrat, the PPP, or Nawaz Shariff – or some power sharing formula. While the death of Benazir Bhutto is destabilizing, it does not challenge the deeper structure of Pakistan’s politics. Pakistan thus swings back and forth between military and civilian rule one side and feudal and capitalist economies on the other. The archetypes are the general and politician/landlord.
But why has Pakistan been dominated by the poles of military and civilian power – and why the pendulum between these two poles? Noted political scientist and human rights advocate, Dr. C. Inayatullah in his classic State and Democracy in Pakistan argues that one creates the conditions for the other: “As the military became more independent and powerful controlling national politics, its top brass developed an ideology and a set of perceptions to justify their political role. Politics was projected as an irrational, disorderly, inefficient and corrupt method of running the affairs of society compared with the rational, efficient, quick and clean way the military runs itself.” They believed they were morally bound to overthrow politicians if the politicians threatened the independence of the nation or if they meddled in the internal affairs of the military. As guardians of the nation, they believe they have the right to rule the nation. Once the civilians come into power, feeling threatened by the military, they attempt to control them. As well, with their feudal roots, a pattern of patronage and corruption sets in. This invites protests from other political parties, often leading to violence. Eventually to stop the violence and decay, – when there is weakness, public contempt of the political party – the military rises up and takes over. Weaknesses emerge from various factors – internal politics, feudal politics, corruption, external threats with the particular causes changing historically.
Following Pitirim Sorokin’s theory of social change, each system overreaches, becomes more corrupt, focuses on its own survival or makes long term decisions that may prove unpopular in domestic politics (peace in Kashmir, dismantling of extremist Islam), and then the other group comes in. Both have created a pendulum that only benefits their own strategies and worldview.
ARCHETYPES
Moving away from structural analysis and towards archetypes, these two poles represent different selves of Pakistan. The first is orderly, rational and in control – the general. The second is land-based, social and can be chaotic. While it challenges military rule, it has its own structure of authority, even as it claims the story of people’s power.
At the level of archetypes, the back and forth works because in this sense one is the British adult and the second is the “Indian” adolescent challenging British rule. However, and this is the key, once the political challenger takes over the mantle of power, he or she has been unable to escape the shadow of the general – thus, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto became authoritarian himself, as have others. They move quickly from the teenager challenging power and authority to the feudal lord. The lord is also very male and foundationally hierarchical.
But there are two other roles in this field of power. What has stayed stable in Pakistan history is a third archetype – the bureaucrat in his suit and tie. The bureaucracy has remained strong throughout Pakistan’s history, as it is the trusted and stable servant of the powerful adult. Thus the executive has prospered while other political institutions – courts, for example – and the rest of civil society have remained weak. When politicians have ruled, the system has remained tied to its feudal past, i.e. strong lines of hierarchy, strong patronage to supporters. Thus, the citizen as archetype has remained out of power – or expressed himself via chaotic power- while other structures have taken their places in power. The bureaucrat has been tied to red tape, using rules to privilege himself, instead of green tape, using rules to create a better and innovative society.
There are thus four positions –military rule, chaotic people’s power that overthrows the ruler, the politician qua feudal lord, and the bureaucrat who ensures smooth transitions between all these types. Of course, it is arguable that political leaders have been far more democratic and the military creates the conditions for chaos (and thus justifies its dictatorial rule), since political rulers maintain their power through their feudal ties. Thus we see the dynastic nature of the PPP.
When the general stays too long, he invites the shadow self, equally violent. This is the mujheddin fighter, the jihadist, for example. They use military force but as power is asymmetrical, chaos works best for them. The jihadis do not need the bureaucrat; rather it is mullah who inspires them. Of course, if the extremists did come into power, then they, to implement their policies, would rely on the bureaucrats. The mullah, afraid that his story has become totally undervalued in the modernized and globalized world, instead of moving toward wisdom and creating a novel future, has returned to past caliphate glories. He links with the jihadist to take over the entire system.
Each one of these archetypes has two sides – the general can be protective and moral (the enlightened despot) or can be amoral, staying too long, clinging to power, assaulting human rights and using religion or strategy to stay in power. The feudal lord can equally be protective or can stay too long, and use his or her power for personal gain. The citizen can be chaotic or can bring social capital to the nation.
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
What then are Pakistan’s alternative futures?
1. The pendulum continues forever. This would mean that after this particular civilian cycle, there will be another military coup in 7-10 years. Politicians will have some luck in ridding Pakistan of extremist fundamentalists, but old scores between the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League or between the PPP and the military will still need to be settled. Issues of justice and revenge will continue and just as Pakistan’s economy is about to take off, another crisis will set in. Citizens will rally but then when they see no real change will become despondent. “Nothing is possible here,” or a similar catch-phrase will be the inner story. Globalization will not go away but the politics would swing between growth and equity.
2. Collapse – this is the most feared scenario for all, particularly in the West. Civil war in Pakistan (the provinces going their own way), the inability to stop jihadism, Al Qa’ida or their friends finding some nukes, not to mention the global challenges of climate change, all lead to a slow decline destined for collapse. And if the challenge from the Pakistani and Afghani Taliban is resolved, the frontline will switch to half-century old war in. Capital flies away, economic development slows down and Pakistan becomes a nation of competing tribes. Women in this future are particularly vulnerable as the battle between religious and secularists throughout the Islamic (Arab influenced world) is fought over the “body” of the female. Is she a person unto herself or does the strong male (feudal lord, ruler, mullah) need to protect and control. In the collapse, chaos would reign. Over time, and perhaps even quite quickly, a strong military leader is likely to rise (the Napoleon scenario), but can the great leader unite all the tribes (the challenge facing Afghanistan today)?
3. Joining Chindia. With India likely to move into the ranks of the G-8 by 2020, gaining a permanent UN Security Council Position, Pakistan’s only hope is to link in every possible way with India and China – or Chindia. Certainly Pakistan will favor the China part of the amazing rise, but in any case, in this future, economic growth is far more important than ideological struggles. To move in this direction, the Singapore or Malaysian model may be adopted. This model is characterized by a clear vision of the future, transparency; break up of the feudal system, limited democracy (One party rule) and creatively finding a niche role in the global economy, and then using that to springboard to becoming a global player. However, the India example shows that economic rise is possible outside the East Asian model. In any case, this future is hopeful but requires investment in infrastructure and a favoring of globalized capitalism. Instead of lamenting the colonial past, in this Chindia future, Pakistan creates its own transnational corporations. Politics moves from focusing on old wrongs (Kashmir, for example) to desired futures. Instead of Chindia, Chindistan is created.
4. The fourth scenario is the Great Game. Pakistan remains a pawn, moved around for the strategic and ideological purposes of the great powers. Whether in proxy wars against the Russians or against 9/11 jihadis or whoever may be next, Pakistan’s capacity to influence its future is low or non-existent. At best, it can only rent out its military, or territory, for others’ battles. In this future (as in the current present), the rental receipts do not lead to even development –they merely enrich those getting the rent, generally the military. The national game becomes not how to transform the great game but how to get a piece of the action, legitimately or illegitimately. Those not part of the money game sing songs of grand conspiracies. These songs take away agency. While Pakistan has a dependency relationship with the rest of the world, citizens have a dependency – child/adult – relationship with the government, expecting it to solve each and every problem, without taking responsibility for their own actions and blaming the government when it fails. At the collective level, Pakistan remains rudderless, evoking the words of the founder, but unable to follow through with action.
5. A wiser South-Asian confederation. The challenges Pakistan faces are similar to what other countries in the region face – religious extremism, climate change, poverty, corruption, deep inequity, used futures and less than helpful archetypes – the only way forward is towards an EU model of slow but inevitable integration. While this may seem too positive and far away, it is not impossible. Each country needs the help of others to solve their problems. None can go it alone, and each can learn from the Other. This requires learning, peace and mediation skills in all schools; moving toward the sustainability development agenda; developing agreements in security, water, and energy to begin with; and a focus on the desired future and not on past injustices. Gender equity and systemic and deep cultural levels is foundational for this future. This future also requires an archetype that is neither the male general nor feudal lord nor the rebellious teenager, but the wise person, perhaps the Globo sapiens. Fortunately, the south Asian tradition is steeped with wisdom. Can this imagination be drawn on to create a different future? Already in Pakistan, there are hundreds of groups and thousands of individuals working on this vision. What is needed is systemic support for this future, and a move away from focusing on past injustices.
Moreover, can the mullah who is focused on religion for tribal power become the wise sage, the Sufi or pir focused on transformative power? Can other roles as well be transformed: can the consumer become the producer, the client the citizen, the child the adult? And perhaps, as in East Asia, can new myths be created through grounded realities such as the economic miracle, which has now created new stories of social capacity and new identities. Pakistan was on the verge of this future in the early 1960s, it is possible to rediscover this pathway.
THE PLANETARY CHALLENGE
If an alternative future for Pakistan is not created, the pendulum will continue with collapse always being in the background. Moreover, in the world we now live in, a weakness or pathology in any part of the planetary system threatens us all. Pakistan’s futures are part of the planet’s futures – we all need to transform.
This transformation in Pakistan needs to be part of a multi-leveled futures visioning process – true citizen anticipatory democracy. Given the illiteracy in the nation, using television, radio, DVDs would be best. Possible scenarios of Pakistan’s futures could be shown. Citizens could critique them and offer their own preferred futures (in some detail, not the grand ideas approach) as to how they wish their lives to look like in 2020 and what needs to be done today to move in that direction. Along with a citizen participatory process, a rigorous academic process needs to be undertaken. This would collect data; provide evidence of preferred, feared and alternative Pakistani futures. Finally, leaders would need to be consulted, helping provide inspiration. The process thus must move toward an anticipatory democracy that includes electoral and participatory democracy. If not, then foresight will be merely another activity of the planning commission or be part of military and political strategy. It will become part of the pendulum. Too much is at stake to allow the current trajectory to continue. An alternative future is needed, and, I believe, can be created.
Australia 2026 – An Alternative Future (2007)
Sohail Inayatullah, Professor, Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University; adjunct Professor, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of the Sunshine Coast.
Drawing inspiration from the recent Australian Association for Environmental Education conference, this essay paints a different possible scenario for the future of Australia.
It has been almost twelve years since the Howard-Costello run was dramatically defeated. Australians, while enjoying economic rise, tired of the social and environmental divide that followed. The Liberal party had been great at economic growth within the industrial paradigm but the digital era demanded far more flexibility and creativity than a 1950s childhood could give leaders.
Since the new leadership – a coalition of new labour, Green and recently created political parties – there have been dramatic changes.
Some have been visible changes, one can see while walking around in cities, others have been systemic changes, but the major shift has been one of worldview – from the politics of fear and exclusion to the ethics of inclusion and a version of sustainability. As well, the story Australians told about themselves had changed – it was not about “children overboard” or “interest rate hikes” but about the confident but ethical Aussie, certainly punching above one’s weight but not boasting about it. On the contrary, more and more Aussies took a personal pride in quietly , working with other cultures to meet the global challenges.
Of course, the obvious happened. Australia signed Kyoto, the Prime Minister apologized to indigenous communities, a republic was created. And: the first Australian president was aboriginal, providing (as with Nelson Mandela in South Africa), moral leadership and direction.
The rise of cultural creatives – a mere five per cent of the population a generation ago but now almost 30 per cent has been the driver of change. Their values of ecology, spirituality, gender partnership, concern for future generations and globalism (freedom of movement of culture, ideas, labour and capital but protection of local communities) have had dramatic impacts throughout the world. They were central in the dramatic rise of a culture of engaged caring.
But there were many other changes. The first time home buyers grant was increased. However, part the deal was a stipulation that the house purchased with the grant used green technologies – rain water tanks, solar energy, to begin with. This was not so difficult as state level building associations throughout Australia had already agreed to lift their standards ensuring that all houses were designed with sustainable, cradle-to-cradle principles.
Universities received dramatic improvements in their budgets. However, they were not exempt from structural change – they too had to dismantle the worst of the industrial era – i.e.STEEP hierarchy, with the professor above, the lecturer below and other staff and students way below. Universities were regeared to meet the challenges of aging, sustainability, and the dramatic revolution in nano-, genetic- and digital technologies.
Internationally, the image of the arrogant Aussie, the deputy Sheriff had disappeared. Australia was now regarded as a unique mix of British, European, indigenous and Asian cultures. Multiculturalism has become stronger but it too has been challenged. Culture is not used as an excuse for gender or nature discrimination. Australian’s many cultural traditions are fine with this as they have been given their dignity – with strength negotiation is possible. Muslim communities have continued to play a vital role, as with all migrant communities, but as Australian has become more gentle, so have they – the eclectic mystical sufi dimension taking its rightful place among the many other strands of Islam.
But while grand debates of culture continue to take place throughout the world, the small things are what really matter. For example, day care centres are fully funded – indeed, salaries of day care workers have jumped. Schools too have changed – they are fully digital, far more flexible toward the unique talents of individual learners – the one-size-fits-all model has been thrown out. Children co-manage schools, design curricula with adults. Peer to peer mediation is used to resolve conflicts. Education truly is for sustainability. Research from brain science – the many ways we learn – and from meditation (enhancing our capacity to learn and think) has been integrated into schools.
Cities too have changed – from being a nation of faceless suburbs, the healthy cities movement has ensured that community-work hubs, walk and bike ways have become the norm in Australia. There are real travel choices – cars, light rail, bus, bikes. Buses as well are far less mass based – they smell better, allow for individuality, arrive and leave on time and are linked to other transport modes, that is, they are integrated, tailored, efficient and seamless transport.
Demand for local food production has seen the return of the backyard veggie patch and urban community gardens. Around the gardens people have rebuilt their local neighbourhood, with a resultant dramatic decline in urban crime.
Better travel choices have dramatically helped reduce the obesity crisis, as has a change in diet. The rise of the vegetarian movement, with consequent savings on water, savings on energy, savings on health and longer life, has also played an important part in reshaping Australian values and behaviour. As with tobacco consumption, meat consumption continues to decline. Organic food production continues to soar in Australia.
The health sector has been reconfigured to be multi-door – doctors work with other allied health professionals, not just to treat patients but also to advise them and to empower them. “Take charge of your health, or she won’t be right” is the catch cry. With Australians living longer, active aging and grey power have been important movements, ensuring that the latter years of life are happy and productive ones.
Australia did not become the nuclear super power as Howard had hoped. Iinstead massive funding for green energy has made Australia a hotbed of creativity – every Asian city is learning from Australia’s systemic changes and its green technologies. As with the Kennedy’s image of a “man on the moon”, the new leadership vision of clean, green, trans-cultural communities has sparked a wave of innovative technologies. Businesses are doing well, especially those that are based on triple bottom line performance measures. Along with businesses, cooperatives have boomed as legal changes have allowed them to grow and become a dominant feature of the organizational landscape.
The Howard-Costello years, while somewhat of a dark era socially, are seen as an example of what can happen when leadership dishonestly pretends to have no ideology; when it leads from fear instead of possibility; and when it focuses on the short term instead of the long term. Of course, many remember that era with fondness – there was less ambiguity, less debate – but generally, while Howard was seen as a great manager and an astute politician, it was increasingly recognised that he was not a great leader who enabled citizens to be better than themselves.
There are endless problems today as well:
- Sea-level rise is still likely to change the coastal areas,
- challenges of peacekeeping still challenge governments throughout the world,
- there are new health crisis as individuals adapt to a post-industrial world and
- new infectious diseases are rampant because of global warming …
Nonetheless, but humility and dignity have ensured that innovation and creativity are here to stay.
Or perhaps not!
What if it is now 2026 and Prime Minister Howard remains on top? What if he has managed to coopt new ideas while not watering down his core conservative ideology? His exercise regime, anti-aging genetic breakthroughs and new brain drugs could have helped him keep up abreast of all these issues. Costello may be still waiting for him to resign, with the rest of us wondering how things could have been so, so different.
Which future do you wish for?
Iraq, Lebanon, The Middle East: In Search of a Rational Foreign Policy (2007)
Foresight and connecting the Dots: The politics of worldviews and disowned selves/collectivities
By Sohail Inayatullah
For the foresight practitioner, what is most stunning about the war in Iraq, the recent war in Lebanon and the war on terror is the lack of capacity of Western governments to connect the dots.
While surveillance continues to heighten, the British Prime Minister Tony Blair appears to have forgotten part two of his formula, that is, tough on crime/terror and tough on the causes of crime/ terror. The links between recent foiled terror attacks in England and the war against Lebanon (or Hezbollah) are not noticed. While radio stations take calls by Muslims asking for a fairer more balanced – reasonable and rational – policy and strategy from England, Blair continues to tow the American line.
Taking the future into account, the American response appears neither reasonable nor rational. That is, we have seen that sanctions and wars do not isolate particular groups – Serbs have not become more democratic since they were bombed (the extreme right remains ever alive), and Iraq certainly is far from having become democratic; rather it is in a midst of a civil war and may have become a haven for terrorists –the exact opposite of USA strategy and planning goals. Bombing people into democracy does not appear to be a viable strategy; in fact, the violence becomes internalized, and is considered by those bombed as the rational strategy.
However, the memory of World War II remains – total destruction followed by rebuilding. Generals appear to continue to fight today’s wars with the memory of previous wars. What made the German experience different was near total annihilation followed by a real hearts and minds rebuilding. The war in Lebanon has weakened if not destroyed any possibility of hearts and minds changing. Indeed, conspiracy theories, already the dominant currency in the Arab world, have become even more inflated.
Irrespective of one’s views toward Al-Qaeda – their demand of withdrawal of western armies from the Arabian Peninsula appear reasonable. Earlier, they offered a ceasefire in Iraq, and yet, most reasonable and rational parties would look toward dialogue. Of course, the trauma of 9/11 in the USA – the pain of the families who lost loved ones along with the shock of an attack on the world’s imperial power removes any chance of a dialogue.
Or is there some other worldview that is so forceful that rationality is lost, something deeper than trauma as well. We know that after the USA initial victory in Iraq, the entire Iraqi army was disbanded: 400,000 solders fired. Certainly a bit of foresight could see that unemployed, angry, dishonored men would provide a reserve army for outside recruiters. Iraq, once authoritarian and totalitarian, is now the Wild West – the site of the terrorism and Sunni-Shia fault lines. But it was not the rational that was victorious but a desire for revenge and the deep Orientalism of the victors, i.e. Iraqis are inferior. Subsequent rapes and prisoner abuse point this out. Orientalism creates the framework wherein others are reduced to sub-humanity. In short: war others all.
OTHER DISCOURSES
What are other discourses that explain the irrationality of today’s geo-politics?
First, as mentioned above is Orientalism – they are barbaric, evil, to be destroyed. A “new” form of this is extreme evangelism, the hope for a united Israel, leading to Armageddon – with two billion to die – followed by the return of Jesus, and heaven on Earth. It appears that the President of the USA, Bush supports this view. Secondly, the inverse holds true also. The extreme Islamic version of this appears to be supported by the President of Iran, who too waits for the 12th Imam to come back and save the world.
A third related discourse is that of the triumph of democracy – eventually a new middle east will emerge once Iraqis, Hezbollah, and others discover the joys of Westernism. In the Iranian case, however, it is the CIA disposal of the Iranian prime-minister Mohammad Mossadegh in1953 that is a more recent memory, not to the mention the Iranian’s own desire for Empire.
At another level, this is merely the paradigm of good versus evil being played out in the body politic. American society lives out this drama and cannot rest unless this struggle is played on CNN nightly and now far more disturbingly on Fox News. That is, the USA needs an enemy to exist – with the fall of Russia; Islam has taken its place. Next will be China and East Asia in general. Islam, as part of the Judaeo-Christian- tradition (the three brothers), is also part of the good-evil field.
Perhaps far saner discourses are the feminist and the environmentalist. War itself is the problem – it is inequitable, killing the most vulnerable on each side. War is not an equal opportunity killer, as we have seen in Lebanon and in Israel. The environment too suffers – mountains are destroyed, and now with the Oil spill in Lebanon, water too is destroyed. Nature is the victim of patriarchy. Democracies do not attack democracies because they are busy attacking ‘lesser forms of governance’, ‘more vulnerable humans,’ and ‘nature herself,’ as Ivana Milojevic has argued (www.metafuture.org)
Equally valuable is the work of Hal and Sidra Stone (http://www.enotalone.com/authors.php?aid=14) [1] with their focus on disowned selves. The self disowned is the problem; it is seen as ‘out there’, objective and in need of colonization, conversion or destruction. However, this objective external reality is created by the evolution of the dominant self – thus extreme Islam is the disowned self of the West.
Less internal is classic political-economy. We know that who gains from conflict are the arms merchants underwritten by the usual suspects: USA, Britain, Israel, China and France.
These discourses help explain the irrationality – why the USA would support a war that will only create more terrorism, i.e. dysfunctionality will be met by more dysfunctionality. With a youth boom predicted to continue for the next 20 years in the Arabian Peninsula, we can see that more rather than less war is likely.
Solving Israel-Palestine on terms of dignity for the Palestinians remains the issue. It is absolutely stunning that there are still refugee camps in Lebanon – these are now permanent camps. Generations of pathology have been created and will continue to be created. The neural pathways of Palestinians and Israelis remain focused on fear and war – that is what is now normal. They may not even be able to find a solution themselves – it may require a super-ordinate power, i.e. no more funding to either group until they find systemic solutions. We know that worldview/cultural solutions will take much longer – i.e. creating identities not based on fear and revenge but on forgiveness.
GLOBAL LEVEL – MOVING FORWARD
While there are certainly excellent ways forward, as for example developed by Johan Galtung through his Transcend conflict resolution method (www.transcend.org)[2], at the global level, I believe we cannot move forward in our human evolution until this problem is solved. Hoping that a massive war will solve it forgets that war creates more memories, more stories of revenge and hate – healing does not occur. For Israel to succeed, or for the Israeli haters to succeed, every last person must die. Who has the stomach for that, not to mention morality? Yet, without transformation we face more irrational bleeding, fighting with no solutions in sight, only temporary winners and losers. Arab populations remain lost in conspiracy theories, on the problem of Israel, or when that is solved (on the problem of the Kurd, or Shia, or…)
Most leaders cannot see this – their worldview does not allow it. Perhaps this is just our evolutionary stage – we remain locked in vicious lock-ins – but if we are to survive, certainly more robust global governance is needed, as well as ways to move past our worldviews of co-dependency, of good and evil, and Armageddon. Until then, our disowned selves keep coming back to kill. Can we listen and change?
If not, perhaps this poem by Patricia Kelly will remind us why we must!
Bomblet meditation
The let of the past was a dainty diminutive.
Anklets jingled on chubby legs
Circlets of flowers crowned gods and brides
Ringlets flounced on moppets’ heads.
‘Bomblets’ are a lethal present.
Metal shards shatter
anklets and circlets
ringlets and moppets
brides and gods
and language
alike.
[1] Essential here is the work of Hal and Sidra Stone. They focus on the disowned selves – selves that we push away as we focus on particular identities. For academics, in the search for the purity of truth, the business self is pushed away. Classically for the corporate world, the ethical self is pushed away in the drive for profits. Integrating these various selves may be the most important challenge for academics. See http://www.enotalone.com/authors.php?aid=14
[2] See Johan Galtung, The Middle East: Building Blocks for Peace. Journal of Futures Studies. Vol 11, No2, November 2006.
We Discovered You! Alternative Futures for Asia (2006)
Sohail Inayatullah
www.metafuture.org
Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan, Adjunct Professor, University of the Sunshine Coast and associate, Queensland University of Technology
“The reported discovery of an accurate map of Asia by a 16th century Chinese explorer could create the context for Asia to transform its self-image, according to Professor Sohail Inayatullah of Tamkang University in Taipei and the University of the Sunshine Coast in Australia., Speaking at a meeting of Bristol-Myers Squibb in Singapore(January 7th, 2006), Dr Inayatullah said that the discovery of the map could change the future for Asia.”
www.theage.com.au
ASIAN FUSION
Is a new Asia emerging? Growth rates are important but the alleged discovery of a map showing that Chinese explorer, Zheng He knew of the new world – indeed, had a decent map of the entire world – strengthens the confidence of Asia, creates the possibility of cultural transformation.
While the map may be a forgery, its impact on the emergence of an Asia that can say Yes! to itself is pivotal. “We discovered you,” is the new story. Add this new confidence to the emerging reality of China and India joining the East Asian economic miracle and suddenly the future can look quite different.
A new fusion Asia – traditional but far flatter than Confucian (or Hindu, Muslim, buddhist) hierarchy – may indeed be possible. This Asia would continue to learn from others, but instead of only copying, it would see that innovation is the path forward. South Korea has already begun to heavily invest in the creative industries – connectivity through the eyes of the artist not just the corporate executive. And with South Korea having quickly moved up the ladder to near the top in new patents – joining Japan and the USA – new futures are indeed possible.
DIVIDED ASIA
However, along with the bright future of Asia Fusion is another scenario. This is Divided Asia. This scenario imagines continued conflicts between the two Koreas, between China and Japan, China and Taiwan, India and Pakistan, to mention just a few fault lines. Add to that corruption and mindless bureaucracy, tempered with hundreds of years of feudalism, and any bright future for Asia seems impossible.
The past few years of crisis provides testimony to this. The financial crisis, SARS, HIV, the tsunami, extremist Islamic terrorism all point to deep systemic problems. These cannot be solved merely by more efficiency but must be addressed by changes in worldview. Surveillance helped stop the SARS epidemic but now it is bird flu. Farming practices, certain diets, men searching for exotic foods to enhance sexual potency – all need to change in Asia. The pathologies of tradition must be transformed.
And yet it is in tradition wherein lies the future of Asia.
Meditation, yoga, tai-chi, feng shui, jain paradoxical logic, future generations thinking (life for our children’s children) all are part of the solution to a sustainable and transformed planet. After all, Grameen Bank’s micro lending program was a dramatic innovation and yet at the root of it was a depth understanding of community, the local village economy, and Muhammad Yunus’ realization that the dignity of the poor and their desire for a better material life were both necessary factors for change.
USED AND DISCARDED FUTURE
The last fifty years, however, has not been the story of the village economy but of the city. Asia has purchased the used and often discarded future of the West. Bigger buildings, endless shopping malls, designer clothes and the attendant problems of pollution, congestion (billion dollar problems) still seem unconnected to many Asian city planners. But with more and more evidence showing that car exhaust, the effects of suburbanization are bad for your heart, for your breathing and for your immune system generally, something has to give. It is western cities that are now looking for ways out, for a return to the garden city – the urban village – even as Asian mayors battle it out for the world’s tallest building (K.L. to Taipei to Shanghai to Dubai – is this Hegel’s geist but returned as a demon?). Some mayors in the West are even asking the age old question of what would a spiritual city look like? How can urban spaces be linked to green spaces to create a feeling of well-being and even invite the presence of the transcendental? Seoul, for example, to bring back nature, has just ripped up a huge chunk of motorway to open up its main river that had been covered over 50 years ago
SNAKES AND LADDERS
But many Asian cities continue the rise. And yet, along with the rise is the fall. Perhaps it is snakes and ladders that is the more appropriate image of the future. Hard work, capital, savings have led to the rise, but since the problems of patriarchy, environment, feudalism have not been resolved, the snake is next – the slippery road back to poverty. After all, it is still men who run things, still the male gaze that dominates, the environment is not yet respected and it is the big man who demands respect.
Underneath all this is worldview – karma. The future understood is that which the astrologer sees not that which we create. It is fear of disaster and not the imagination of a new future that holds sway. And the leader uses this fear to ensure that innovation does not become epidemic.
WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE
For Asia to transform – to avoid the problems of the endless rise, the second-hand future of the West; the grand divisions of politics and nations; and the fall of the snake- much needs to be changed. Here are some starting points.
1. Design cities that are green – that create community, that are soft on the earth, that recycle at every level (as per the work of Malaysian architect Ken Yeang) and even as they grow financially retain equity.
2. Move toward resource taxes in order to promote sustainability.
3. Transform bureaucracy from red tape to green tape – rules that help innovation –
Real innovation not just Poweroint presentations from representatives of the Ministry of Science and Technology (Asia has its own version of the Ministry of Funny Walks)
4. Move toward increasing cooperative enterprises of all sorts (academic coops, food coops, for example).
5. Globalizing but enhancing local and regional economies to protect local food, bio and cultural diversity.
6. Integrate consciousness technologies in education – meditation and yoga for primary and secondary schools, in government and certainly in business
7. Ensure that Asian leaders leave instead of staying way past their welcome – deep democracy, not just regular elections.
8. Heal the wounds of past genocides – thinking of desired future, not who was right or wrong – transcend peace solutions, as in South Africa. And, most importantly,
9. Create gender partnership – women and men working together.
If change can move in this direction then a new Asia is possible. If not, then it does not matter if Zheng He did discover the new world – he is not here now to create it.
But we are.
Seven Hypothesis and Doorways to a Knowledge Economy (2006)
By Sohail Inayatullah
SEVEN HYPOTHESIS AND DOORWAYS TO A KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY
Speech, July 11, 2006
Creating a Knowledge Economy for the Sunshine Coast
The image of the future and the learning community
The Sunshine coast currently stands between different images of the future. The first is the traditional, small scale, strong community, fishing village. Basically, this was small scale tourism resort with some of the economy corporatized (local plus national) This image and reality has quickly disappeared in the last few decades. And with population growth likely to continue, it is unlikely that the 1950s Australia can be created. Globalization, cybertechnologies, the genetics revolution, aging and other variables make this unlikely.
The other image is that of endless urban growth, short termism, no concern for the environment, generally becoming totally integrated into southeast queensland, with no real self-identity. Tourism is heavily corporatized here (international plus national with very little family scale ventures). This would mean a conflictual divided society along the lines of access to jobs, eduation, housing and wealth. One group would be the tourists and international investors and the other single parents trying to make a basic living. This appears likely unless government policy, citizen demands and an alternative shared image of the future develops.
There are other images as well. A transformational image, for example, becoming small scale electronically connected communities based on sustainable development and alternative lifestyles – a different type of tourism, a more localised economy.
Also, transformational would be the coast finding some role in the globalized economy, perhaps as a niche player in specific types of emerging tourism – its internationalization. Government working with small scale enterprises, creating some spaces so they are not swallowed by bigger players.
Part of the challenge then is for the Coast to envision the futures desired and develop broad agreement on it. While technologies, global economies and demographic changes push the future, there is a pull of the future – the vision that defines what can be. There is also the weight of the future – traditional practices that limit our capacity to adapt, to meet citizen,market, human needs.
Central to adaption is creating a learning community. This notion is important in that it provides a context for creating an alternative future. It is not a recipe. Recipes for economic success come and go. In the 1980s it was Japanese management. In the early 1990s it was export, export and export. By the late 1990s it switched to Silicon Valley and the notions of clusters of innovativeness – university plus research centers plus the government providing incentives plus a tolerant creative workforce. Success creates success as the image of what is possible changes – the image becomes realizable.
The issue of how to respond to the knowledge economy is not only the problem of the Coast. Taiwan has the same issue. It knows that while copying has served well in the move from agriculture (self-reliance) to manufacturing (low cost producer and exporter), it needs to shift to the new technologies. But how to do so? And which new technologies. The response from the Prime Minister has been the vision of Green Silicon Island ie sustainability plus high technology plus independence. Singapore has met the problem of innovation by legislating creativity – ie pushing art and poetry, buying university leaders, buying biotech industry, but it is still top down governance, soft fascism. The question is can Singapore make the transition from manufacturing and finance to an innovator in other areas, the emerging technologies.
The knowledge economy is in some ways not recent, that is, all surplus, profit is based on knowledge. It is more the percent engaged in agricultural/manufacturing and services has dramatically changed in the last century. Less and less people are needed to produce goods.
In the USA today, 16% of the workforce is engaged in manufacturing, 3% in agriculture and 87% in knowledge and services. Australia is quite similar.
Moreover the mode of producing is changing. What is means is putting knoware in everything, smartness in everything. This is crucial in that while productivity in agriculture and manufacturing has increased 50 fold, changes in knowledge are quite small in comparison.
Thus it also means changing organizational structures so that creativity and questioning can blossom – this is essentially the notion of learning communities. Learning communities can 1. Increase productivity. 2. Weave communities. 3. Create meaning and purpose, that is the framework of the triple bottom line of prosperity, people and environment, that is, what is the triple bottom line for – it is for the vision of the community. Brisbane has focused its entire framework around the vision of the liveable city and now Brisbane 2010. This of course now needs to be updated. We need a similar shared vision for the coast.
Thus, for the Coast, with agricultural in continued decline, manufacturing not likely, and tourism generally low paying, what are the alternatives? Can it produce knowledge on a global scale? Is so, what knowledge can be produced here better than elsewhere; who are the buyers, what is the competitive advantage? How can tourism be smarter? While all reasonable questions that must be answered, I see the “solution” elsewhere, in capacity building, in creating learning communities.
The context of this issue of the rise and fall of collectivities. In Toynbee’s model, it is the creative minority that meets the challenge. For the Coast, the challenge is multifold: 1. Economic transformation, moving away from the uni-dimensional tourism model and toward a knolwedge economy, learning model. 2. Cultural transformation, moving away from uni-culturalism to multiculturalsim and 3. Shared vision, finding shared direction when there are deep cleavages between shires and between interests groups. The learning community model is creating contexts for learning so that the creative minority is far less important, where knowledge is democratized.
However, the notion of a learning community, I hope does not become another recipe, but rather a vision that creates more visions as well as a context that builds the capacity to create better futures.
My analysis of the learning community is the following. The criteria is:
- Flexibility
- Beyond industrial standardized model
- From production based to consumer based
- Mobility of mind and body
- Yoga as metaphor – stretching body and mind
- Willingness to engage in cultural stretch (still keep basic root structure), interpretive, not rigid
- Responsiveness
- Needs of community
- Needs of market – local and global
- Needs of citizens
- More important than actual structure of governance ie democracy, aristocracy, dictatorship
- Speed, distinctive, courteous
- Anticipatory
- Changing needs of citizen, community, market
- Novel planning methodologies – scenarios (divergence), emerging issues analysis (leading indicators of change, short and long term) and causal layered analysis – changes in litany, system, worldview and myth
- Using multiple media – web, tv, festivals – for deepening democracy.
- Iterative process of opinions plus expert knowledge leading to community guidance
- Innovativeness
- Questioning the product
- Questioning past, present and future
- Creative destructive
- Action learning – learning from doing and reflecting
- Out of box – learning hats – white (logical positive); black (logical negative); green (grow the idea); blue (authority); red (passion); and orange (spiritual – synthesis) plus hat for specific function
- Leadership plus experts plus participatory
- Experts bring critical edge, knowledge
- People bring community concerns, new ideas, solutions
- Inclusion of others – individuals then ways of knowing
- Leaders can give direction, vision, create context
- Beattie – smart state.
- Learning plus healing
- Learning to learn
- Life long learning
- Learning communities
- Smartness in all futures
- Triple bottom line – people, planet and prosperity
- Healing self, other, environment and planet
Example, Biology professor complaining about lack of understanding of species categories versus pokemon.
- Microvita
- Reality spiritual and material
- Reality living – symbiotic – community as living organism.
- Change through technology, society plus unconscious, collective vision
- Evolution can be ethical, with direction
People visit Gaudi in Barcelona because they can’t see it anywhere else? What do we have that is distinctive? How can we embed learning and healing as well as the other points in everything we do ?
And what is our vision for the future of the Sunshine Coast?
Which Identity for Australians? (2006)
By Sohail Inayatullah
Professor, Tamkang University, University of the Sunshine Coast and www.metafuture.org
What will happen to Australian identity? Can it transform, will new identities emerge,?
Some of Australia’s best and brightest convened at Melbourne Business School for a two day workshop (February 14-15) on the futures of Australian identity, as a lead up to the Australia Davos Future Summit.
Organized by Paul Hameister of the Future Summit, hosted by Dr. Robert Burke of Mt Eliza Centre for Executive Education and facilitated by Professor Sohail Inayatullah, the workshop explored and developed scenarios of the futures of Australian identity.
Globalisation, demographic changes, perceptions of loss of safety because of world terrorism, challenges to multiculturalism, demographic shifts, the possibility of pandemics, and dramatic new genomic, nanotechnology, energy, surveillance, brain/mind technologies all portend a disturbed world, a world in flux.
The meeting began with a showing of investigative comic Akmal Salleh’s (Compass, ABC TV) attempt to understand Australia Day. His conclusion was that Australia was in a process of becoming – tolerance, the laid back lifestyle, and different understandings of what it means to be Australian were the keys to identity sanity.
The workshop was strucured around Inayatullah’s methodology mapping the past (through the methodology of shared history); mapping the future (through the futures triangle); disturbing the future (through emerging issues analysis), deepening the future (through causal layered analysis) and transforming the future (through visioning and backcasting).
Three dimensions of the future provide the focus for the futures triangle, which in turn laid the groundwork for the scenarios. The three dimensions are the pull, or image of the future; the push of the present (quantitative drivers) and the weight of history, the barriers to change.
Lucky country:
The “Lucky Country” was the first image of identity that emerged. Identity here was based on the past – on the agricultural era. Resource riches have created this identity. Its driving metaphor? “She’ll be right.” However, participants questioned whether “She” would indeed be right. They felt that Australia was “selling the family silver”, and that, with policies that have not been gracious toward others (refugees, the weakest in society) participants felt that luck may be running out. Moreover this identity was overly passive, relying on what nature had given Australia, not what Australians could individually and collectively do to create a new future, a new identity.
Renewed past:
The second image was that of the “Renewed Past.” This was based on today’s leaders looking back at the 1950s as the ideal era. Anzac parades, identity linked to Mother England, strong male values were crucial here. Of course, as we continue to the future, the identity would be renewed through technology, but the white picket fence will remain. Nostalgia for the past, strong moral values and male leaders are pivotal to this future.
Participants did not think this uni-cultural image could lead Australia as women had too many barriers to achieve full equity in this future. More than renewing the past was required. This image was closer to the hearts of the veteran demographic groups and some baby boomers than these more youthful leaders.
Theme park:
The past is powerful resource. The third image was that of Australia theme parks. Identity here was disparate, fossilized yet respectful of multicultural Australia, but it is not dynamic. Each theme park, in this future, represents the many cultures that are Australia. Each theme park is used to bring in tourists from around the world. In this future, culture is the big seller, culture is the winner.
There was also discomfort in this “culture for sale future”. While media companies would do amazingly well in the postmodern future, participants were unsure if the image of the “Croc hunter” among other potentialities was the desired future.
“Lucky country,” “Renewed past” and “Theme park” were all past-based, focused on preserving rather than creating anew. They were also exclusive, attempting to protect in some way past traditions (resources, relationship to England, patriarchy and culture itself).
Contrasting futures were: “Innovative Oz,” “Glocal,” and “No identity.”
Innovative Oz:
“Innovative Oz” was certainly preferred. The image was that of the boxing kangaroo, having the capacity to meet any adversity. Indeed, it is adversity that brings out the best in Australians – they come together, they invent, they innovate, they create a new future. Global travel, early adoption of technology and social experimentation were all attributes of this future. Gender equity, embracing of the ways of knowing of other cultures are all attributes that help Australia stay innovative. Culture enhances science and technology, synergizing to create a unique country and people. Identity is both tough – the nerves of steel as exhibited by female and male sports heroes – and soft, open to others, desiring to learn from all so as to be best one can be.
Glocal:
But does this future go far enough, questioned some participants? They imagined an alternative future, that of the “Enlightened Australian” living in a Global and Local world. National identity was softer and duty to the planet and the locale stronger. The nation-state and states themselves were less important. Identity was Gaian, linked to the planet as whole and one’s own locale. The “cultural creatives” demographic group is the driver for this future. Sustainability, spiritual values, global governance were key values in this gentler future. Indigenous culture and spirituality were not external to identity but embraced at deep levels. Innovation emerges not just from science and technology but from ethics and integrity, from leadership doing the right thing (and thus keeping the luck-karma continuing).
But what would happen to those focused on the past, who need stability. How would they manage in this changing future? Would social cohesion be possible if localities began to use identity as a weapon against each other? Clearly, this future would only be possible if there were superordinate rules setting yup how localities organized in this global becoming.
No Aussie identity:
The question of all identities feeling at home in a rapidly changing world was even more salient in the last future – “No Aussie identity.” Because of economic globalization (movement of capital, goods, services and labour) national barriers break down. Identity can be with one’s transnational corporation or with one’s religion (the global ummah, for muslims, for example), with one’s website (as in Asiagroove.com) or with some other main identity.
This future, while embraced by a few participants, was disturbing for others. While they found the “glocal” self inspired and working for the collective, this new self was still considered selfish, putting self, company, religion, web community before nation. Those wedded to the past – lucky country and renewed past – would especially find this threatening. The sacrifices they had made in the last hundred years would amount to nothing, it was felt.
Beyond the scenarios
These images of the future were then tested using a range of different methods, including emerging issues analysis to discern how new technologies might change these futures.
The double variable scenario method was used to test if new futures would emerge. This method used inclusion and exclusion on one axis and stable and disturbed on the other axis. The images made a good fit with this analysis. Lucky country and renewed past were based on stable exclusionary worlds. Glocal was inclusionary and future oriented. Innovative Oz was based on future orientation but there would be some clear winners (the emerging knowledge economy and those who could adapt, whose identity was less rigid) and losers (those who yearned for the “gold old days.” The theme park future was past oriented and inclusionary, as all cultures were part of Australia, but in a ossified way. “No Australian identity” was extreme – inclusionary to those who could make the shift but excluding those who held on to the nation-state.
The preferred future
When participants voted on their preferred future, the loading was strong toward Innovative Oz and Glocal. Both involve the current identity to use the past – stories of meeting adversity as well as the values of respect for nature, respect for others – to create new futures. While the first creates the enlightened Australian, the second creates the enlightened global and local citizen.
Which future will become reality? Participants believed that any of these six futures was plausible. Which one becomes the actual reality is based on many factors, including which futures we decide to make come true. Next step is to road test these identities as scenarios, asking others what is missing, what is plausible.
But most important is what is preferred.
Which is your preferred future?
February 2006