Corporate, Technological, Epistemic and Democratic Challenges: Mapping the Political Economy of University Futures (2001)

Sohail Inayatullah

Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan and Sunshine Coast University, Australia. www.metafuture.org

 

Trends of changing student expectations (access to global systems of knowledge, including transparency and international accreditation), the internet (virtual education, moving from campus center to person centered, and far more customized, individually tailored), global corporatization (reduced state funding for universities and the development of a market culture on campuses) and transformed content (multicultural education) will dramatically influence all the world’s universities. Indeed the potential for dramatic transformation is so great that in the next fifteen to twenty years, it is far from certain that universities as currently constituted – campus based, nation-funded, and local student-oriented – will exist. Certainly, the current model for the university will cease to be the hegemonic one.

Of course, rich universities like Harvard will be able to continue without too much challenge, but the state-supported University will be challenged. Asian nations where education is defined by the dictates of the Ministry of Education too will face the efficiency oriented, privatization forces of globalization. Their command and control structure will be challenged by globalization – market pressures, technological innovations and the brain gain (that is, from graduates returning home from the USA and England).

Corporatization

Corporatization will create far more competition than traditional universities have been prepared for. Corporatization is the entrance of huge multinational players into the educational market. Total spending in education in America was 800$ billion US in 2001, estimates The Economist. By 2003, the private capital invested in the US will total 10 billion dollars, just for the virtual higher education market and 11 billion dollars in the private sector serving the corporate market. Indeed, John Chambers, CEO of Cisco systems, calls “online education the killer application of the internet.” Jeanne Meister, president of Corporate University Xchange(CUX), expects that by 2010 there will be more corporate universities in the United States than traditional ones. They are and will continue to challenge the academy’s monopolization of accreditation.. Globalization thus provides the structure and the Net the vehicle. Pearson, for example, a large British media group that owns 50% of the Economist, is betting its future on it, hoping that it can provide the online material for the annual two million people that will be seeking a degree online. Motorola, Accenture, Cisco and McDonolds as well as News Corporation all seek to become respectable universities. Cisco Networking Academies have trained 135000 students in 94 countries. Motorola has a new division called Motorola Learning and Certification which resells educational programs. Accencture has purchased a former college campus and spends 6.5% of its revenues on educating employees.

Of course, much of this is not new. Corporation education has always been big. What is new is that corporate universities seek to enter markets traditionally monopolized by academics. And, given pressures on corporation to be more inclusive of minorities, to be more multicultural and more triple bottom line oriented (prosperity, planet plus people), it may be that corporate universities embrace diversity at a quicker pace than traditional universities.

Clearly when billion dollar corporations want to enter the market – a rapidly growing market, especially with the aging of the population and with national barriers to education slowly breaking down – the challenge to the traditional university becomes dramatic, indeed, mission, if not life threatening. With an expanding market of hundreds of millions of learners, money will follow future money. Money will transform education, at the very least, dominate the discourse who and what values are most important – is the student, academic, administrator, community or are corporate interests first, remains the answered question.

For community education and for communities – traditionally tied to a local regional university – seeking economic vitality, their future will become far more daunting. As universities globalize, corporatize and virtualize – moving services to low cost areas – place will more and more disappear.

This is a far cry from the classical European, Islamic on Indic university, concerned mostly with moral education. Moreover, as in Bologna in the 10th century, the university was student-run. If the professor was late, he was fined by students, some teachers were even forced to leave the city. Paradoxically, corporatization with its customer-first ideology may return us to a student-run university. The Academy beware!

University Dimensions

The point is that at one time the university was student-run, we know that it is no longer so, if anything it is administration-run. Who will run it in the future? To understand this we need to explore the different dimensions of the University. The University is partly about social control, and it is also about baby-sitting. What to do with teenagers? How to keep them out of trouble? The other dimension is national development. We have schools to convince everyone that we’re a good people, that we have the best system. Each nation engages in social control, it uses education to give legitimacy to the nation-state, to make good patriots. We also have university for job training, the entire practical education moment. – the small community colleges, where the goal is to go to a small college to get practical education so that one can get a real job after graduation.

Thus the classical view of knowledge for the cultivation of the mind has been supplanted by the industrial model. And, as you might expect the big growth in jobs in the university are in the area of the bureaucracy. Whereas tenure is being eliminated in favor of part-time employment throughout the world, the university administration continues to expand.

Of course, the nature of administration is as well changing: it is being forced to become far more student-friendly, as with government subsidies of education being reduced, it is students who pay academic and administration wages. Fees provide the backbone of the private university. Customer satisfaction and student retention become far more important as compared to the traditional state subsidized university. As Flora Chang of Tamkang University said: “Student satisfaction through customer surveys, student retention data, and alumni loyalty are crucial factors” for our future success.

One key question will be: what can be automated? Who can be replaced by the internet and web education? Perhaps both – faculty and the administration – will be in trouble. This is the debate: too many administrators or too many professors. A third perspective is – a market perspective – not enough students and thus each university believes it must globalize and seduce students from all over the world attend their physical campus as well as take courses from their virtual campuses. However, generally, most universities still think of students in narrow ways. As young people or as students from one’s own nation. But with the ageing population and with the internet (with bandwith likely to keep on increasing), one’s paying students can be from anywhere.

The other classical view of university was academic-led – a shared culture focused on scholarship and science – but that too is been challenged. And of course the .com model even challenges what the university should look like. Should it be physical-based or virtual? Should it be based on a model of hierarchy or a networked model?

But for academics, the biggest challenge is the university as a corporation. And we know in the U.S. corporate funding for the University has increased from 850 million in 1985 to 4.25 billion US$ less than a decade later. In the last twenty years it has increased by eight times. It is likely that East Asian nations will follow this pattern. So far it is the state that has exclusively engaged in education. However, globalization is opening up this space in East Asia with foreign and local education suppliers seeking to reduce the controls of the Ministry of Education.

Thus the big money is coming from corporations and funding from the government is gradually being reduced years as per the dictates of the globalization model. While most presidents of the university would prefer a different model, they have no choice. More and more education is becoming an economic good. Humanity departments are being downsized throughout the world since the contribution to jobs is not direct. Unfortunately, they forget the indirect contribution, that of creating smart, multi-lingual, multi-cultural individuals – what some call social capital. However, in East Asia language remains central, necessary to understand other cultures, train civil servants and open up new markets.

However, there are some quite insidious affects of corporatization. First, information is no longer open, as corporations use it for profit making. A survey of 210 life-science companies in 1994 found that 58% of those sponsoring academic research required delays of more than six months before publication. The content of science itself changes as the funding increased. In a 1996 study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, 98% of papers based on industry-sponsored research reflected favorably on the drugs being examined as compared with 79% based on research not funded by the industry. Now what accounts for that 19% variation? And how will the public then see the university? As with the medical system, once patients believe that doctors are beholden to certain drug companies or web sites they are less likely to trust them. This holds true for university research as well.

But there is another side to globalization. In 1989 in the U.S. there were 364 new start up companies on the basis of a license to an academic invention. University technology transfer activities generated 34 billion dollars in U.S.$ supporting 280,000 jobs.

So the university is becoming more global and also producing incredible wealth, so there are two sides to globalization.

Virtualization: the .com revolution

The .com revolution as well has mixed reviews. For example, at one Australian university, over night, the prefix for academic emails was changed from edu.au to .com. The academics asked why did this occur? While some were upset that this happened without consultation, others were upset that the moral basis of the university was being transformed, they were deeply troubled by corporatization. The administration responded that we can no longer compete globally as an @.edu.au institution and instead had to become a .com. Eventually the university went back to edu.au as the pressure from academics was too great. With the .com world having lost its shine, perhaps it was a wise move.

But the university administration could see the writing on the wall. The traditional model of the classical liberal arts national subsidized university was ending – a new model was emerging. The mistake they made was not engaging in dialogue with others, not living the .com network model but instead using the power-based secrecy model of the industrial era.

The other problem that administrations have not yet begun to see is that much of middle-management can and is likely to be eliminated. The emerging knowledge economy – via the net and future artificial intelligence systems – will lead to dis-intermediation. With a good information system, you don’t need all the secretaries, the clerks, as well as those higher up the ladder. Of course, the politics of job firing, retraining, is a different matter and central to how the future university and overall world economy is to be organized in the future.

In Taiwan, surveys at Tamkang University, Taiwan, found that Professors and Administrators were enthusiastic about virtualization. Professors were enthusiastic as this would free their time spent at the university, increase interaction with colleagues and students, and administrators saw the cost savings. Deans saw it eroding their power base – control of the faculty – and students saw it taking away from what they valued most – face to face (not face to blur, ie huge classes) education. They desired a degree of broadband but not virtual classes.

Summarizing these two sections, it appears that the nature of what constitutes education is changing from being academy focused to being customer student focused; from being campus focused to being virtual; from being state subsidized to being corporate funding. Overtime – and certainly these processes are uneven with fits and starts, the university may becomes a process, it is no longer simply a place, with fixed 9-5 work patterns, with fixed schedules for classes. It can become a network.

Multicultural Realities

But there is a deeper possibility of change – this the epistemic bases of knowledge, of content, of what is taught, how it is taught and who teaches – essentially this is the multicultural turn.

In its tokenistic form, multiculturalism became a government fad of the last decade in postindustrial societies, its most controversial feature being its excesses of ‘political correctness’. In its deeper nature it is

about inclusiveness. At heart, argues Ashis Nandy, multiculturalism is about dissent, about contesting the categories of knowledge that modernity has given us. And, even with multiculturalism often criticized and coopted, used strategically to ensure representation, still the future is likely to be more and more about an ethics of inclusion instead of a politics of exclusion. Of course, the struggle will be long and hard, and more often than not, instead of new curriculum, there will be just more special departments of the Other.

Deep multiculturalism challenges what is taught, how it is taught, the knowledge categories used to teach, and the way departments enclose the other. It provides a worldview in which to create new models of learning and new universities which better capture the many ways students know the world. As futures researcher Paul Wildman reminds us, this can extend to concepts such as multiversities and even ‘subversities’ which encourage participation from scholars and students who dwell at the periphery of knowledge. In this form, multiculturalism goes beyond merely inclusion of ‘other’ ethnicities, to a questioning of the whole paradigm of western scientific rationalism on which centuries of university traditions are founded. In this perspective, multiple ways of knowing including spiritual or consciousness models of self, in which as James Grant for the Mahrishi University of Mangement and Marcus Bussey of The Ananda Marga Gurukul University assert, the main driver in transforming universities of the next century is an explosion of inner enlightenment, a new age of higher consciousness about to begin. Thus, there are three levels to this. The first is inclusion of others, in terms of who gains admission into universities, who teaches, ensuring that those on the periphery gain entrance. A second level is less concerned with quantifiable representation and more with inclusion of others’ ways of knowing – expanding the canon of what constitutes knowledge as well how knowledge is realized. A third level is what Indian philosopher P.R. Sarkar calls, the liberation of the intellect, education that transcends the limitation of geographical sentiments, religious sentiments, race-based sentiments and even humanism, moving toward a planetary spiritual consciousness and touching upon the spiritual.

In terms of curriculum and disciplinary boundaries, multiculturalism challenges the notion that there is only one science. Western science instead of being seen as a quest for truth is considered to be one way of knowing among many. There are can alternative sciences – feminist science, Tantric science, Islamic science. They are still engaged in empirical and verifiable research but the questions asked, the ethical framework are different. Generally, the type of research is more concerned with indigenous problems, with local concerns. It is less violent to nature, toward “subjects” and more concerned with integrated self and other, mind and body, intellect and intuition.

What’s happening throughout universities is that scholars are contesting the content of scholarship – how, for example, history is taught, asking are all civilizations included, or are only Western thinkers, Western notions of discovery and culture honored.

Many years ago, I give a lecture at an Australian university and questioned how they were teaching their main course on World History. I noted that the grand thinkers from Islamic, Sinic and Indian civilizations were not included. Why? And when other civilizations were briefly mentioned they were written as threats to the West or as barbarians. Women and nature as well were absent. I argued that this creates a view of history that is not only inaccurate but violent since other cultures see themselves through these hegemonic eyes. Instead of creating an inclusive history of humanity’s struggle, a history of one particular civilization becomes valorized.

While it is unlikely that the professor who teaches this course will change, students have changed. They want multiple global perspectives. They understand that they need to learn about other cultures from those cultures’ perspectives. Globalization in the form of changing immigration patterns is moving OECD nations by necessity toward better representation, irrespective of attacks of multicultural as “political correctness.”

The multicultural challenge to the traditional university can be defined as below:

  • Challenge to western canon
  • Challenge to intellect as the only way of knowing
  • Challenge to divorce of academic from body and spirit – challenge to egghead vision of self/other
  • Challenge to modernist classification of knowledge
  • Challenge to traditional science (feminist, islamic, postnormal, indian)
  • Challenges pedagogy, curriculum as well as evaluation – ie process or culture, content and evaluation or what is counted.

We are already seeing the rise of multiculturalism in OECD nations. For example, at one conference in Boston, when participants were asked to list the five American authors they believed most necessary for a quality education, they placed Toni Morrison second and Maya Angelou third. Others on the top ten, included Maclom X and James Baldwin. The first was Mark Twain.

The multicultural perspective challenges as well the foundation of knowledge. Multicultural education is about creating structures and processes that allow for the expression of the many civilizations, communities and individuals that we are.

Multicultural education contests the value neutrality of current institutions such as the library. For example, merely including texts from other civilizations does not constitute a multi-cultural library. Ensuring that the contents of texts are not ethnocentric is an important step but this does not begin to problematize the definitional categories used in conventional libraries. For example, in the multicultural perspective, we need to ask what a library would look like if it used the knowledge paradigms of other civilizations? How would knowledge be rearranged? What would the library floors look like? In Hawaiian culture, for example, there might be floors for the Gods, for the aina and genealogy. In Tantra, empirical science would exist alongside intuitional science. Floor and shelve space would privilege the superconscious and unconscious layers of reality instead of only focusing on empirical levels of the real. In Islam, since knowledge is considered tawhidic (based on the unity of God), philosophy, science and religion would no longer occupy the discrete spaces they currently do. Of course, the spatiality of “floors” must also be deconstructed. Information systems from other civilizations might not privilege book-knowledge, focusing instead on story-telling and dreamtime as well as wisdom received from elders/ancestors (as in Australian Aboriginal) and perhaps even “angels” (either metaphorically or ontologically).

A multi-cultural library might look like the world wide web but include other alternative ways of knowing and being. Most certainly knowledge from different civilizations in this alternative vision of the “library” would not be relegated to a minor site or constituted as an exotic field of inquiry such as Asian, Ethnic or Feminist studies, as are the practices of current libraries. The homogeneity of the library as an organizing information system must be reconstructed if we are to begin to develop the conceptual framework of multi-cultural education.

Thus, not only is the structure of the University changing, that is, virtualization, but the content as well is being transformed. Now what does this mean, in terms of policy prescriptions? If you want your university to have a bright future, you have to understand the changing nature of the student – changing demographics (older, more females) and changing expectations (more multicultural). Generally, while getting a job will always be important, the equation has changed to planet, prosperity and people, that is, a strong concern for the environment, for wealth creation and for engaging with others and other cultures.

For academics, the multicultural is as well about the changing role of the Professor. For example, the university becomes not just a site of gaining knowledge but a place for experiencing other dimensions of reality, at the very least, for balancing body, mind and spirit.

Democratizing the Feudal Mind

The role of academics is changing as well. This is the generally the hardest notion for senior professors to swallow – the democratization of the university. We want democracy for government, but we don’t want democracy for universities .

The university remains feudal. For example, while the economy in East Asian nations has transformed, that is, feudalism was destroyed, the feudal mind has not changed. This is the grand question for East Asian nations. How to create a culture of innovation, how to go to the next level of economic development, instead of copying, creating. To create an innovative learning organization, you can’t have a culture of fear. This means real democracy in details like what type of seating is in the room. As well as: can students challenge professors? Can junior professors challenge senior academics without fear of reprisal. Innovation comes from questioning.

In British systems, the university structure is as well profoundly feudal. A strong distinction is made between the professor and the lecturer. Indeed, the professor is high on top the pyramid with others way below (and the president of the university residing on the mountain top).

Thus can we democratize the university? Of course, it is difficult to do this as few of us like being challenged. We all have our view of reality, our favorite models, and we believe we are correct. But creating a learning organization means challenging basic structures and finding new ways to create knowledge and wealth. It doesn’t mean always going to the President for solutions. Transforming the feudal university is very difficult.

However, I am not discounting the importance of respect for leadership, for discipline and hardwork – challenging authority doesn’t mean being rude, it means contesting the foundations for how we go about creating a good society.

Along with a learning organization, however, is the notion of a healing organization. Merely, focused on learning forgets that much of our life is spent focused on relationship – with our inner self, with colleagues, with nature and cosmos and with the university itself. As universities change their nature – reducing tenured positions, increasing teaching loads – health becomes an issue. Sick institutions can emerge quite quickly, unless there is a focus on creating ways to learn and heal, to develop sustainable and transformative relationships.

However, democratization is not facile given the trends mentioned above. For the Asian academic, for example, the choices shrink daily. Her or she can choose between the following alternatives – the 4 big M’s. The first M is the Ministry of Education. Choosing this career means grant research focused only on the Ministry’s needs, and it means being dependent on government. When states go wrong, or punish dissent as in Malaysia or Indonesia, or Pakistan and India, losing one’s job and prison are real possibilities. Text are written with the other nation as the enemy, as in India and Pakistan. The professor must teach these texts or lose his or her position. One pakistani academic, for example, was jailed for giving a lecture on alternative futures that contested the notion of Pakistan as an eternal state.

The second choice is the Mullah, or the cleric. This is money from not the corporation or State but the competing worldview to the modern, the Islamic. In real terms this has meant soft and strong version of Wahibism – the creation of International Islamic Universities with Saudi funds as in Kaula Lumpur, Malaysia. Freedom of inquiry is problematic as well here, as boundaries of inquiry are legislated by the University’s charter. Instead of spiritual pluralism what results is uncritical traditionalism.

If we combine the first two choices we get a combination of religious hierarchy with feudal and national hierarchy, creating very little space for the academic. In the Indian context , this would be the brahmin who goes to Oxford to study economics, joins the world bank and returns to Delhi to work with the Ministry of Economic Development.

The third M is “Microsoft”, focusing one’s career on developing content for the new emerging universities. This is the quickly developing area of Net eudcation. The cost for the academic here too are high – it is contract work, often a loss of face to face, of collegial relationships, of the academy as a moral mission. Volume and speed are likely to become more important than integrity and the inner life.

The final M is McDonaldization. This is the move to the convenience 7/11 university, the Australian model. Large student volume, in and out, with academics having heavy teaching loads. A professorship essentially becomes focused on gaining grants.

Leaving these M’s is a possibility, dependent on the nature of the state one lives under. However, the traditional imagination of the university is not a possibility. The route in the last 50 years was the escape to the Western university, but with these universities too in trouble, this route seems blocked.

So far I have touched upon four trends: corporatization, virtualization, multiculturalism and democratization as well as basic missions of the University. Given these trends and missions, what are the possibilities for the university, what are the possible structures?

Possible Structures

I see three possible structures. One is being a University leader, joining the world’s elite, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford. The focus then is: “We are only going to get the best bright students around the world.” But the challenge to this model comes from the .com world. The big money is unlikely to be in teaching but in content design. The issue is though once you put your name on cdroms, on internet content, does that diminish your brand name, its exclusivity. If everyone can enter an elite university’s web course, is the university still elite? This is the issue of franchising. Should you focus on a small customer base that can pay a lot or become like the University of Pheonix (the largest university in the USA, offers no tenure, uses short courses as well as flexible delivery. A kind of just-in-time education).

For large universities, there are two clear choices – elite university or low cost producers with hundreds of millions of new students all over the world as potential purchasers. A third choice for the smaller university is the niche university –focused in a particular area of excellence. Not trying to be too much, just focused on one particular area (regional concerns, for example).

The question for the traditional university is new competition from global players: multi-media corporations, elite universities that are expanding and branding as well as low-cost producers.

These issues are already of concern in the USA, and soon they will be crucial here as well. It is harder to see this in East Asian nations (and those colonized by England) since the State plays such a strong role in education. But eventually in five or ten years the competition will come here as well. All universities will find themselves in a global market.

However, a university can find ways to be all these structures, developing different campuses. One could be focused on life-long learning, short courses. A second could be research focused, linked to government and industry. A third could be elite based, having student friendly teacher-student faculty ratios. The Net could link them all, or there could be a fourth virtual campus, a net university. In these worlds, what stands out is the loss of community education, of the university focused on place. However, as universities homogenize through globalization, communities may find niches.

Scenarios for the Future

The next question is what are the probable scenarios for the future of the university. We use scenarios to reduce uncertainty. Scenarios are also important in that they also help us rethink the present – they give us a distance from today.

Earlier futures studies focused entirely on single point prediction. The field then moved to scenario planning, to alternative futures. But now, it is moving to capacity development, with creating learning organizations where foresight is a continuous part of what the organization does.

Studies that examine corporations that have survived over a hundred years found that the one key factor in explaining longevity was the capacity to tolerate ideas from the margin. Even for corporate universities this is crucial – the capacity to tolerate dissent, indeed, to nurture different ideas, new ideas from the edge.

In terms of scenarios, the first one is the Star Alliance model. I use this term from the airlines – where the passenger is always taken care of – there is easy movement from one airline to the other. Everything is smooth. For the university, this would mean easy movement of student credits, faculty and programs. A student could take one semester at Stanford, and a second semester in Tamkang, and a third semester at Singapore National University. Professors could also change every semester. So it means a similar web of movement. Star alliance works because customers are happy. The airlines are happy because they get brand loyalty. The student might say “I know if I join this university, my credits are transferable. I could access the best professor, I could access the best knowledge in the world.

The weakness in this scenario is the proportioning of funds as well as the costs of movement to the local community, to community building, to place itself.

The second scenario is what I call, Virtual Touch. This vision of the future of the university combines the best of face-to-face pedagogy (human warmth, mentoring) with virtual pedagogy (instant, anywhere in the world, at your own time and speed). If it is just technology then you get bored students, staring at a distant professor. But if it is just face-to-face you don’t get enough information. The universities who can combine both will do very well.   Ultimately that will mean wearable wireless computers. We already know that in Japan they use the wireless phone to dial up a website and find the out the latest movie, or weather or stock quote.

In 10 years, it is going to be the wearable computer, so we’re going to have a computer with us all the time. I can find out everything, I can find out the minerals in water for example, testing to see if it is clean or not. And that technology is almost developed now. I can find out where was my microphone was made. Was it made in China, in Taiwan, in the U.K. I just dial up and I can get product information. And this information will be linked to my values, what type of world I want to see. Thus, I’ll purchase products that are environmentally friendly, where the corporation treats women well. And students will see university courses in the same way: is it well taught, what is the professor like, how much democracy is in the class, what are the values of the University?

The third scenario is: A university without all walls. It’s means the entire world becomes a university . As Majid Tehranian writes: “If all goes well, the entire human society will become a university without walls and national boundaries.” We don’t need specific universities anymore since the university is everywhere, a true knowledge economy wherein humans constantly learn and use their knowledge to create processes that create a better fairer, richer, happier world.

The Future of the Profession

Let me now return to the future of the academic. What is the role of the academic in this dramatically changing world? The first possibility is the traditional professor – this is the agent of authority, great in one field but knowing very little about other fields. They may know Physics but not complexity theory. They are useful in that they are brilliant in one area but not so useful since they have a hard time adapting to change.

The second role is the professor as web content designer. While the current age-cohort is unlikely to engage in these activities, younger people will – what has been called digital natives. For example, my children – 8 and 6 – clearly see their future in the design of new digital technologies. Other young people as well see knowledge as quite different than we do. They see knowledge as quick, as interactive, as multi-disciplinary and as always changing. They want to be web designers and information designers. So the old role of academics was to write books, the new role is that of creating new types of interactive content. And the content will likely be far more global, multicultural than we have so far seen. It appears to be an entirely different world being created.

That also means, if you are the web designer, your student becomes key. This means using action learning methods. Action learning means that the content of the course is developed with the student. While the professor may have certain authoritative knowledge, his or her role is more of a mentor, the knowledge navigator to help the student develop his or her potential within his or her categories of what is important.

 

This will be good news for academics who retain their positions. Most of the professors I speak with would prefer less teaching – information passing out – and more communication. The mentoring role is far more rewarding, personal. The old school was the long lecture. The new way of thinking is just tell the student to go the web and find out. Afterwards there can be a discussion. The Professor then has to learn how to listen to students’ needs and not just to lecture to them.

What is unique about our era is that we now have the technology to do this. Do we have the political will, the wisdom?

Community and the University

What do these trends mean for the University’s relationship with community? Clearly it is under threat. It is global corporatization or spaceless time that is far more important than local and immediate time. Community, however, can be an antidote to many of the threats. It could unite academics, falling back on each other to question the future of the university. On a more instrumental note, regional universities, or universities specifically designed and developed for a locale are a niche that is likely to become more, not less, important as the trends of globalization, virtualization, multiculturalism and democratization continue. Certainly, democracy needs the notion of community and multiculturalism is essentially about more and more community, higher and higher levels of inclusion.

There are four possibilities for Community Spaces

  1. Alliance with other communities – like minded learning communities. This is a novel challenge, and means moving outside the national arena as defining and searching for other communities in similar situations. Sister cities is a dimension of this, but far more important are real contact not photo opportunities.
  2. Alliance with the corporate world – attract businesses to survive.
  3. Communities aligning with social movements, that is creating moral space. Prosperity is an issue here, however, a strong local community can ensure that basic needs are met, even if globalized wealth does not raise everyone’s wealth (at least local strength will ensure that globalization does not reduce local wealth)
  4. The fourth possibility is that communities will themselves transform., There only hope is create Global-local spaces since academics are now becoming virtual and global. Only a program that has local place dimensions with global mobility dimensions can prosper.

Dissenting Futures

Let me conclude this essay with the issue of dissent. What makes the role of the academic unique is that he or she can challenge authority. When the system becomes too capitalistic, this can be questioned. If it is too religious, this too can be countered. All the excesses of the system can be challenged. And who can do this? Those who work for the government can’t since they fear losing their jobs. Those belonging in the church, temple or mosque can’t since they are ideologically bound. And this is the problem with globalization, by making efficiency the only criteria, moral space is lost. As academics we should never, I believe, lose sight of our responsibility to create new futures, to inspire students, to ask what-if questions, to think the unthinkable, to go outside current parameters of knowledge. This is our responsibility to current and future generations.

 

Selected References

Eyal Press and Jennifer Washburn, The Kept University in The Atlantic Monthly (March 2000), 39-54.

Glazer, Nathan. We are all Multiculturalists Now. Harvard, Harvard University Press, 1997.

Inayatullah, Sohail and Jennifer Gidley, eds. The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives on the Futures of the University. Westport, Ct., Bergin and Garvey, 2000.

Inayatullah, S. “The Multicultural Challenge to the Future of Knowledge.” Periodica Islamica, 1996, 6(1), 35–40.

Staff, “Online Education: Lessons of a virtual timetable,” The Economist (February 17, 2001), 71-75.

Tehranian, M. “The End of the University.” Information Society, 1996, 12(4), 444–446.

Wildman, P. “From the Monophonic University to Polyphonic Multiversities.” Futures, 1998, 30(7), 625–635.

Wiseman, L. “The University President: Academic Leadership in an Era of Fund Raising and Legislative Affairs.” In R. Sims and S. Sims (eds.), Managing Institutions of Higher Education into the Twenty-First Century. Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1991.

The University in Transformation (Book Info, 2000)

The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives on the Futures of the University

Edited by Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Gidley

Bergin & Garvey. Westport, Conn. 2000. 280 pages

LC 99-16061. ISBN 0-89789-718-8. H718

 

Contributing Authors:

Tom Abeles, Marcus Bussey, James Dator, James Grant, Anne Hickling-Hudson, Greg Hearn, Patricia Kelly, Peter Manicas, Ivana Milojevic, Shahrzad Mojab, Ashis Nandy, Deane Neubauer, Patricia Nicholson, David Rooney, Tariq Rahman, Michael Skolnik, Philip Spies and Paul Wildman.

 

Book Summary

Taking a long-term historical and future perspective on the university is critical at this time. The university is being refashioned, often by forces out of the control of academics, students, and even administrators. However, there remain possibilities for informed action, for steering the directions that the university can take. This book maps both the historical factors and the alternative futures of the university. Whereas most books on the university remain focused on the European model, this volume explores models and issues from non-Western perspectives as well.

Inayatullah and Gidley draw together essays by leading academics from a variety of disciples and nations on the futures of the university, weaving historical factors with emerging issues and trends such as globalism, virtualization, multiculturalism, and politicization. They attempt to get beyond superficial debate on how globalism and the Internet as well as multiculturalism are changing the nature of the university, and they thoughtfully assess these changes.

 

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION

Forces Shaping University Futures by Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Gidley

WESTERN PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURES OF THE UNIVERSITY

University Traditions and the Challenge of Global Transformation by Philip Spies

Higher Education at the Brink by Peter Manicas

Will the Future Include Us? Reflections of a Practitioner of Higher Education by Deane   Neubauer

The Virtual University and the Professoriate by Michael Skolnik

The Futures for Higher Education: From Bricks to Bytes to Fare Thee Well by Jim Dator

Why Pay for a College Education? by Tom Abeles

Of Minds, Markets and Machines: How Universities might transcend the Ideology of Commodification by David Rooney and Greg Hearn

At the Edge of Knowledge-Towards Polyphonic Multiversities by Paul Wildman

NON-WESTERN PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURES OF THE UNIVERSITY

Recovery of Indigenous Knowledge and Dissenting Futures of the University by Ashis Nandy

Pakistani Universities: Past, Present, and Future by Tariq Rahman

Civilizing the State: the University in the Middle East by Shahrzad Mojab

Scholar Activism for a New World: The Future of the Caribbean University by Anne Hickling-Hudson

Internationalizing the Curriculum-for Profit or the Planet? by Patricia Kelly

ALTERNATIVE UNIVERSITIES

The Crisis of the University: Feminist Alternatives for the 21st Century and Beyond by Ivana Milojevic

Homo Tantricus: Tantra as an Episteme for Future Generations by Marcus Bussey

Universities Evolving: Advanced Learning Networks and Experience Camps by Patricia Nicholson

Consciousness-Based Education: A Future of Higher Education in the New Millennium by James Grant

TRANSFORMATIONS OF THE UNIVERSITY

Corporate Networks or Bliss for All: The Politics of the Futures of the University by Sohail Inayatullah

Unveiling the Human Face of University Futures by Jennifer Gidley


Comments On The University In Transformation

This book is admirably comprehensive. Its authors look at the impact on universities of all the major trends of our times. Even better, they go beyond the usual western focus and attempt a genuinely world view. A very stimulating contribution to the debate.

Sir John Daniel, Vice-Chancellor, The Open University


Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Gidley have responded to the present crises of higher education by bringing together a must-read collection of papers. Firmly grounding their work on past trends, both the Western and Non-Western authors of these papers challenge conventional thinking as they explore possible, probable, and preferable futures for the university. A first-rate piece of work that might help us avoid a potential coming educational catastrophe.

Professor Wendell Bell, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, Yale University


…University in Transformation is highly recommended as an engaging, informative, and visionary text for those concerned with the critical role of universities in personal and national development in the 21st century.

Professor Robert Arnove, Professor of International and Comparative

Education, Indiana University, Bloomington


This book is a `must’ reading for all professionals in higher education and those policy makers who have influence upon the direction of higher education in the U.S. as well as other countries….While thoughtful in insight, it is also practical in ideas. Anyone who reads it will come away with the importance of higher education and its role in building a global society where humanity will ultimately prevail.

Professor Glenn K. Miyataki, President, The Japan-America Institute of

Management Science, Honolulu, Hawaii


A very impressive collection… This book arrives just-in-time for universities that want a future.

Gordon Prestoungrange, Global President, International Management Centers


This is an interesting and thought-provoking book that gives other perspectives to the important debate on the role and effectiveness of the university in modern society.

Professor John Rickard

Vice-Chancellor, Southern Cross University


Gidley and Inayatullah give equal weight to non-Western perspectives and … “alternative universities.”

Warren Osmond

Editor, Campus Review


Editors Inayatullah and Gidley have created a solid collection of     significant if tantalizing essays addressing the basic question:    Can–or should–the university as we have known it continue to exist in view of new forces engulfing the world? They observe an increasingly multicultural, globalized, and politicized world in which the Internet can virtualize a university’s walls. Will technologies reach Third World universities and modernize them, make them more open, less parochial, and more inclusive? As the university becomes more tied to the corporate world in a globally capitalist system, will it abandon its noble purpose as a repository of truth and knowledge and lose its potential to transform society? These are among the questions discussed.

The authors, most of them Futurists, all agree that within the near future universities will be radically transformed. Some predict that in market-driven universities tenure, academic freedom, and commercially nonviable disciplines will evaporate and student-teacher contacts will dwindle in an atmosphere of human redundancy. Others see bright futures for alternative universities in which information technology and virtualization will play major roles. Optimists, they see current trends not as threats but as opportunities for professors, administrators, and policy shapers. The book, well organized and edited, will be especially valuable for graduate students in postsecondary education.

O. Ulin, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Choice Magazine (Current reviews for Academic Libraries, published by the American Library Association) October, 2000


Purchase via Amazon

Trends Transforming the Futures of the University (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

This article is based on speeches presented to the Professoriate at Tamkang University, Taiwan and at the 4TH Pacific Rim First Year in Higher Education Conference, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia, 6 July 2000

 

Trends of changing student expectations (access to global systems of knowledge, including transparency and international accreditation), the internet (virtual education, moving from campus center to person centered, and far more customized, individually tailored), global corporatization (reduced state funding for universities and the development of a market culture on campuses) and transformed content (multicultural education) will dramatically influence all the world’s universities. In the next ten years there will be windows of opportunities to transform and be ahead of the curve. However, after that the window will close and there will be clear winners and losers. Indeed the potential for dramatic transformation is so great that in 10 years, it is far from certain that universities as currently constituted – campus based, nation-funded, and local student-oriented – will exist.

Corporatization

Corporatization will create far more competition than traditional universities have been prepared for. Corporatization is the entrance of huge multinational players into the educational market. All understand that education is the big growth area. Total spending in education in America was 800$ billion US, estimates The Economist. By 2003, the private capital invested in the US will total 10 billion dollars, just for the virtual higher education market and 11 billion dollars in the private sector serving the corporate market. Indeed, John Chambers, CEO of Cisco systems, calls “online education the killer application of the internet.” Jeanne Meister, president of Corporate University Xchange(CUX), expects that by 2010 there will be more corporate universities in the United States than traditional ones. They are and will continue to challenge the academy’s monopolization of accreditation. These corporations have a huge capitalization base and with globalization they have the legitimacy to cross national boundaries and with the internet the vehicle to do so. Pearson, for example, a large British media group that owns 50% of the Economist, is betting its future on it, hoping that it can provide the online material for the annual two million people that will be seeking a degree online.

The money is in education. Generally as academics we are not used to this type of language. For us, it has been about scholarship, the pursuit of truth, about science. I know at one meeting, when a colleague asked about the level of scholarship in one program, the Dean said they had no money for scholarships. He had already forgotten what the university was about as he was always under so much financial pressure.

Now if someone down to the street, some vendor who sells bread wants to take over the university, there is no threat. But when billion dollar corporations want to enter the market – a rapidly growing market, especially with the aging of the population and with national barriers to education slowly breaking down – the challenge to the traditional university becomes dramatic. With an expanding market of hundreds of millions of learners, money will follow future money. Money will transform education.

This corporatization of the university – Academic Capitalism – differs quite dramatically from the classical university, which was concerned about moral education. Moreover, as in Bologna in the 10th century, it was student-run. If the professor was late, he was fined by students, some teachers were even forced to leave the city.

University Dimensions

The point is that at one time the university was student-run, we know that it is no longer so, if anything it is administration-run. Who will run it in the future? To understand this we need to explore the different dimensions of the University. The University is partly about social control, and it is also about baby-sitting. What to do with teenagers? How to keep them out of trouble? The other dimension is national development. We have schools to convince everyone that we’re a good people, that we have the best system. Each nation engages in social control, it uses education to give legitimacy to the nation-state, to make good patriots. We also have university for job training, the entire practical education moment. – the small community colleges, where the goal is to go to a small college to get practical education so that one can get a real job after graduation.

Thus the classical (Confucian and Greek) view of knowledge for the cultivation of the mind has been supplanted by the industrial model. And, as you might expect the big growth in jobs in the university are in the area of the bureaucracy. Whereas tenure is being eliminated in favor of part-time employment throughout the world, the university administration just keeps on expanding.

Now I know some of you are happy, the administrators, as you believe these positions are justified since reporting, accounting requirements keep on increasing, student numbers keep on going up, so of course, there should be more administrators.

But if you are not an administrator and are a faculty member you are wondering where is the money going to?. I know students everywhere are asking that. In one meeting we had on globalization and the university, one professor commented that the “the most important thing in globalization is reducing labor costs.” Someone else asked: and where are the biggest labor costs? The biggest labor cost is in the administration. If you really want a globalized university, first cut the deans. Of course, this is the most difficult position to cut since deans generally decide which positions go and which stay. Faculty planning seminars are essentially about implementing university plans, and not about creating new visions of education.

But the key question will be: what can be automated? Who can be replaced by the internet and web education? Perhaps both – faculty and the administration – will be in trouble. This is the debate: too many administrators or too many professors. A third perspective is – a market perspective – not enough students and thus each university believes it must globalize and have students from all over the world attend their physical campus as well as take courses from their virtual campuses. However, generally, most universities still think about students in narrow ways. As young people or as students from one’s own nation. But with the ageing population and with the internet (with bandwith likely to keep on increasing), one’s paying students can be from anywhere.

When I think of a student, I think of someone as 50, even 70 years old. The idea of 18 years old student is no longer an accurate representation. The biggest democratic shaft in human history is now occurring. We are moving from the medium age of OECD countries being 20 to 40. It’s dramatic shift.

Now the other classical view of university was academic-led – a shared culture focused on scholarship and science – but that too is been challenged. And of course the .com model even challenges what the university should look like. Should it be physical-based or virtual? Should it be based on a model of hierarchy or a networked model?

But for academics, the biggest challenge is the university as a corporation. And we know in the U.S. that Corporate funding for the University has increased from 850 million in 1985 to 4.25 billion US$ less than a decade later. In the last twenty years it has increased by eight times.

So the big money is coming from the corporation and money from the government is gradually being reduced years as per the dictates of the globalization model. While most presidents of the university would prefer a different model, they have no choice. More and more education is becoming an economic good. Humanity departments are being downsized throughout the world since the contribution to jobs is not direct. Unfortunately, they forget the indirect contribution, that of creating smart, multi-lingual, multi-cultural individuals – what some call social capital.

However, there are some quite insidious affects of corporatization. First, information is no longer open, as corporations use it for profit making. A survey of 210 life-science companies in 1994 found that 58% of those sponsoring academic research required delays of more than six months before publication. The content of science itself changes as the funding increased. In a 1996 study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, 98% of papers based on industry-sponsored research reflected favorably on the drugs being examined as compared with 79% based on research not funded by the industry. Now what accounts for that 19% variation? And how will the public then see the university? As with the medical system, once patients believe that doctors are beholden to certain drug companies or web sites they are less likely to trust them. This holds true for university research as well.

But there is another side to globalization. In 1989 in the U.S. there were 364 new start up companies on the basis of a license to an academic invention. University technology transfer activities generated 34 billion dollars in U.S.$ supporting 280,000 jobs.

So the university is becoming more global and also producing incredible wealth, so there are two sides to globalization.

Virtualization: the .com revolution

The .com revolution as well has mixed reviews. A quick example. Over night, one Australian university administration changed the prefix for academic emails from edu.au to .com. So over night your email changed from being Professor Chen@edu.au to Chen@com. The academics asked why did this occur. While some were upset that this happened without consultation, others were upset that the moral basis of the university was being transformed, they were deeply troubled by corporatization. The administration responded that we can no longer compete globally as an @.edu.au institution and instead had to become a .com. Eventually the university went back to edu.au as the pressure from academics was too great.

But the university administration could see the writing on the wall. The traditional model of the classical liberal arts national subsidized university was ending – a new model was emerging. The mistake they made was not engaging in dialogue with others, not living the .com network model but instead using the power-based secrecy model of the industrial era.

The other problem that administrations have not yet begun to see is that much of middle-management can and is likely to be eliminated. The emerging knowedge economy – via the net and future artificial intelligence systems – will lead to dis-intermediation. With a good information system, you don’t need all the secretaries, the clerks, as well as those higher up the ladder. Of course, the politics of job firing, retraining, is a different matter and central to how the future university and overall world economy is to be organized in the future.

Now the other impact of the .com revolution is that it creates the portable revolution. With colleagues, we produced a cdrom on Futures Studies which in effect is a portable university. One can get an MA through the cdrom, it has courses on it, stories of all the authors and it opens up to the web serving as a knowledge navigator for the field of futures studies. So when people ask me where I teach, I say, I just carry my university with me. Through the cdrom, you enter a new pedagogical world. You can, for example, e-mail all the authors and editors. Now remember when you were in college and if you wanted to ask questions of a textbook chapter, to e-mail a great scientist, a great social scientist, could you do that? With this type of technology you can ask authors questions of their text, seek further explanations. The text can become communicative instead of merely information.

Of course, one can put all this information on the web as well, however, bandwith while increasing is slow in many universities.

So the nature of what constitutes education is dramatically changing from being text focused to being customer student focused. From being campus focused to being virtual. The university than becomes a process, it is no longer simply a place, with fixed 9-5 work patterns, with fixed schedules for classes. It can become a network.

Multicultural Realities

The model of how think about what is taught – not just how it is taught, and the structure around education – is also changing. And this is the important trend of multiculturalism.

In its tokenistic form, multiculturalism became a government fad of the last decade in postindustrial societies, its most controversial feature being its excesses of ‘political correctness’. In its deeper nature it is

about inclusiveness. At heart, argues Ashis Nandy, multiculturalism is about dissent, about contesting the categories of knowledge that modernity has given us. And, even with multiculturalism often criticized and coopted, used strategically to ensure representation, still the future is likely to me more and more about an ethics of inclusion instead of a politics of exclusion. Of course, the struggle will be long and hard, and more often than not, instead of new curriculum, there will be just more special departments of the Other.

Deep multiculturalism challenges what is taught, how it is taught, the knowledge categories used to teach, and the way departments enclose the other. It provides a worldview in which to create new models of learning and new universities which better capture the many ways students know the world. As futures researcher Paul Wildman reminds us, this can extend to concepts such as multiversities and even ‘subversities’ which encourage participation from scholars and students who dwell at the periphery of

knowledge. In this form, multiculturalism goes beyond merely inclusion of ‘other’ ethnicities, to a questioning of the whole paradigm of western scientific rationalism on which centuries of university traditions are founded. In this perspective, multiple ways of knowing include spiritual or consciousness models of self, in which as James Grant for the Mahrishi University of Mangement and Marcus Bussey of The Ananda Marga Gurukul University assert, the main driver in transforming universities of the next century is an explosion of inner enlightenment, a new age of higher consciousness about to begin.

Multiculturalism ends the view that there is only one science. Western science instead of being seen as a quest for truth is considered to be one way of knowing among many. There are can alternative sciences – feminist science, Tantric science, Islamic science. They are still engaged in empirical and verifiable research but the questions asked, the ethical framework are different. Generally, the type of research is more concerned with indigenous problems, with local concerns. It is less violent to nature, toward “subjects” and more concerned with integrated self and other, mind and body, intellect and intuition.

What’s happening through out universities is that scholars are contesting the content of scholarship – how, for example, history is taught, asking are all civilizations included, or are only Western thinkers, Western notions of discovery and culture honored.

I give a lecture at an Australian university and questioned how they were teaching their main course on World History. I noted that the grand thinkers from Islamic, Sinic and Indian civilizations were not included. Why? And when other civilizations were briefly mentioned they were written as threats to the West or as barbarians. Women and nature as well were absent. I argued that this creates a view of history that is not only inaccurate but violent since other cultures see themselves through these hegemonic eyes. Instead of creating an inclusive history of humanity’s struggle, a history of one particular civilization becomes valorized.

While it is unlikely that the professor who teaches this course will change, students have changed. They want multiple global perspectives. They understand that they need to learn about other cultures from those cultures’ perspectives.

The multicultural challenge to the traditional university can be defined as below:

  • Challenge to western canon
  • Challenge to intellect as the only way of knowing
  • Challenge to divorce of academic from body and spirit – challenge to egghead vision of self/other
  • Challenge to modernist classification of knowledge
  • Challenge to traditional science (feminist, islamic, postnormal, indian)
  • Challenges pedagogy, curriculum as well as evaluation – ie process or culture, content and evaluation or what is counted.

We are already seeing the rise of multiculturalism in OECD nations. For example, at one conference in Boston, when participants were asked to list the five American authors they believed most necessary for a quality education, they placed Toni Morrison second and Maya Angelou third. Others on the top ten, included Maclom X and James Baldwin. The first was Mark Twain.

The multicultural perspective challenges as well the foundation of knowledge. Multicultural education is about creating structures and processes that allow for the expression of the many civilizations, communities and individuals that we are.

Multicultural education contests the value neutrality of current institutions such as the library. For example, merely including texts from other civilizations does not constitute a multi-cultural library. Ensuring that the contents of texts are not ethnocentric is an important step but this does not begin to problematize the definitional categories used in conventional libraries. For example, in the multicultural perspective, we need to ask what a library would look like if it used the knowledge paradigms of other civilizations? How would knowledge be rearranged? What would the library floors look like? In Hawaiian culture, for example, there might be floors for the Gods, for the aina and genealogy. In Tantra, empirical science would exist alongside intuitional science. Floor and shelve space would privilege the superconscious and unconscious layers of reality instead of only focusing on empirical levels of the real. In Islam, since knowledge is considered tawhidic (based on the unity of God), philosophy, science and religion would no longer occupy the discrete spaces they currently do. Of course, the spatiality of “floors” must also be deconstructed. Information systems from other civilizations might not privilege book-knowledge, focusing instead on story-telling and dreamtime as well as wisdom received from elders/ancestors (as in Australian Aboriginal) and perhaps even “angels” (either metaphorically or ontologically).

A multi-cultural library might look like the world wide web but include other alternative ways of knowing and being. Most certainly knowledge from different civilizations in this alternative vision of the “library” would not be relegated to a minor site or constituted as an exotic field of inquiry such as Asian, Ethnic or Feminist studies, as are the practices of current libraries. The homogeneity of the library as an organizing information system must be reconstructed if we are to begin to develop the conceptual framework of multi-cultural education.

Thus, not only is the structure of the University changing, that is, virtualization, but the content as well is being transformed. Now what does this mean? If you want your university to have a bright future, you have to understand the changing nature of the student – changing demographics (older, more females) and changing expectations (more multicultural). Generally, while getting a job will always be important, the equation has changed to planet, profits and people, that is, a strong concern for the environment, for making money and for engaging with others and other cultures.

Democratizing the Feudal Mind

The role of academics is changing as well. This is the generally the hardest notion for senior professors to swallow – the democratization of the university. We want democracy for government, but we don’t want democracy for universities .

The university remains feudal. For example, while the economy in East Asian nations has transformed, that is, feudalism was destroyed, the feudal mind has not changed. This is the grand question for East Asian nations. How to create a culture of innovation, how to go to the next level of economic development, instead of copying, creating. To create an innovative learning organization, you can’t have a culture of fear. This means real democracy in details like what type of seating is in the room. As well as: can students challenge professors? Can junior professors challenge senior academics without fear of reprisal. Innovation comes from questioning.

In British systems, the university structure is as well profoundly feudal. A strong distinction is made between the professor and the lecturer. Indeed, the professor is high on top the pyramid with others way below (and the president of the university residing on the mountain top).

Thus can we democratize the university? Of course, it is difficult to do this. No one likes being challenged. We all have our view of reality, our favorite models, and we believe we are correct. But creating a learning organization means challenging basic structures and finding new ways to create knowledge and wealth. It doesn’t mean always going to the President for solutions. Transforming the feudal university is very difficult.

However, I am not discounting the importance of respect for leadership, for discipline and hardwork – challenging authority doesn’t mean being rude, it means contesting the foundations for how we go about creating a good society.

So far I’ve touched upon four trends: corporatization, virtualization, multiculturalism and democratization as well as basic missions of the University. Given these trends and missions, what are the possibilities for the university, what are the possible structures?

Possible Structures

I see three possible structures. One is being a University leader, joining the world’s elite, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford. The focus then is: “We are only going to get the best bright students around the world.” But the challenge to this model comes from the .com world. The big money is unlikely to be in teaching but in content design. The issue is though once you put your name on cdroms, on internet content, does that diminish your brand name, its exclusivity. If everyone can enter an elite university’s web course, is the university still elite? This is the issue of franchising. Should you focus on a small customer base that can pay a lot or become like the University of Pheonix (the largest university in the USA, offers no tenure, uses short courses as well as flexible delivery. A kind of just-in-time education).

For large universities, there are two clear choices – elite university or low cost producers with hundreds of millions of new students all over the world as potential purchasers. A third choice for the smaller university is the niche university –focused in a particular area of excellence. Not trying to be too much, just focused on one particular area (regional concerns, for example).

The question for the traditional university is new competition from global players: multi-media corporations, elite universities that are expanding and branding as well as low-cost producers.

These issues are already of concern in the USA, and soon they will be crucial here as well. It is harder to see this in East Asian nations (and those colonized by England) since the State plays such a strong role in education. But eventually in five or ten years the competition will come here as well. All universities will find themselves in a global market.

Scenarios for the Future

The next question is what are the probable scenarios for the future of the university. We use scenarios to reduce uncertainty. Scenarios are also important in that they also help us rethink the present – they give us a distance from today.

Earlier futures studies focused entirely on single point prediction. The field then moved to scenario planning, to alternative futures. But now, it is moving to capacity development, with creating learning organizations where foresight is a continuous part of what the organization does.

Studies that examine corporations that have survived over a hundred years found that the one key factor in explaining longevity was the capacity to tolerate ideas from the margin. For universities this is crucial – the capacity to tolerate dissent, indeed, to nurture different ideas, new ideas from the edge.

In terms of scenarios, the first one is the Star Alliance model. I use this term from the airlines – where the passenger is always taken care of – there is easy movement from one airline to the other. Everything is smooth. For the university, this would mean easy movement of student credits, faculty and programs. A student could take one semester at Stanford, and a second semester in Tamkang, and a third semester at Singapore National University. Professors could also change every semester. So it means a similar web of movement, that’s one big possibility. Star alliance works because customers are happy. The airlines are happy because they get brand loyalty. The student might say “I know if I join this university, my credits are transferable. I could access the best professor, I could access the best knowledge in the world.

The second scenario is what I call, Virtual Touch. This vision of the future of the university combines the best of face-to-face pedagogy (human warmth, mentoring) with virtual pedagogy (instant, anywhere in the world, at your own time and speed). If it is just technology then you get bored students, staring at a distant professor. But if it is just face-to-face you don’t get enough information. The universities who can combine both will do very well.   Ultimately that will mean wearable wireless computers. We already know that in Japan they use the wireless phone to dial up a website and find the out the latest movie, or weather or stock quote.

In 10 years, it is going to be the wearable computer, so we’re going to have a computer with us all the time. I can find out everything, I can find out the minerals in water for example, testing to see if it is clean or not. And that technology is almost developed now. I can find out where was my microphone was made. Was it made in China, in Taiwan, in the U.K. I just dial up and I can get product information. And this information will be linked to my values, what type of world I want to see. Thus, I’ll purchase products that are environmentally friendly, where the corporation treats women well. And students will see university courses in the same way: is it well taught, what is the professor like, how much democracy is in the class, what are the values of the University?

The third scenario is: A university without all walls. It’s means the entire world becomes a university . As Majid Tehranian writes: “If all goes well, the entire human society will become a university without walls and national boundaries.” We don’t need specific universities anymore since the university is everywhere, a true knowledge economy wherein humans constantly learn and use their knowledge to create processes that create a better fairer, richer, happier world.

The Future of the Profession

Let me now return to the future of the academic. What is our role in this dramatically changing world. The first possibility is the traditional professor – this is the agent of authority, great in one field but knowing very little about other fields. They may know Physics but not complexity theory. They are useful in that they are brilliant in one area but not so useful since they have a hard time adapting to change.

The second role is the professor as web content designer. While the current age-cohort is unlikely to engage in these activities, younger people will. Even my six year old wants to be a cdrom designer when he grows up. Other young people as well see knowledge as quite different than we do. They see knowledge as quick, as interactive, as multi-disciplinary and as always changing. They want to be web designers and information designers. So the old role of academics was to write books, the new role is that of creating new types of interactive content. And the content will likely be far more global, multicultural than we have so far seen. It appears to be an entirely different world being created.

That also means, if you’re the web designer, you’re student becomes key. This means using action learning methods. Action learning means that the content of the course is developed with the student. While the professor may have certain authoritative knowledge, his or her role is more of a mentor, the knowledge navigator to help the student develop his or her potential within his or her categories of what is important.

You might say this is impossible in Asian nations and former British colonies. But many years ago we had a one week course in Thailand. The subject was the futures of economic development. The first four days, we had heavy lectures, but on the 5th day, my colleague from Queensland University of Tony Stevenson said to the students “you design the course.” For the first half-hour, the students looked down. But after twenty minutes they started talking and eventually designed the next few days.

My sense is that this is good news for academics. Most of the professors I speak with would prefer less teaching – information passing out – and more communication. The mentoring role is far more rewarding, personal. The old school was the long lecture. The new way of thinking is just tell the student to go the web and find out. Afterwards there can be a discussion. The Professor then has to learn how to listen to students’ needs and not just to lecture to them.

What is unique about our era is that we now have the technology to do this. Do we have the political will, the wisdom?

Dissenting Futures

Let me close this speech with the issue of dissent. What makes the role of the academic unique is that he or she can challenge authority. When the system becomes too capitalistic, this can be questioned. If it is too religious, this too can be countered. All the excesses of the system can be challenged. And who can do this? Those who work for the government can’t since they fear losing their jobs. Those belonging in the church, temple or mosque can’t since they are ideologically bound. And this is the problem with globalization, by making efficiency the only criteria, moral space is lost. As academics we should never, I believe, lose sight of our responsibility to create new futures, to inspire students, to ask what-if questions, to think the unthinkable, to go outside current parameters of knowledge. This is our responsibility to current and future generations.

 

Selected References

Eyal Press and Jennifer Washburn, The Kept University in The Atlantic Monthly (March 2000), 39-54.

Glazer, Nathan. We are all Multiculturalists Now. Harvard, Harvard University Press, 1997.

Inayatullah, Sohail and Jennifer Gidley, eds. The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives on the Futures of the University. Westport, Ct., Bergin and Garvey, 2000.

Inayatullah, S. “The Multicultural Challenge to the Future of Knowledge.” Periodica Islamica, 1996, 6(1), 35–40.

Staff, “Online Education: Lessons of a virtual timetable,” The Economist (February 17, 2001), 71-75.

Tehranian, M. “The End of the University.” Information Society, 1996, 12(4), 444–446.

Wildman, P. “From the Monophonic University to Polyphonic Multiversities.” Futures, 1998, 30(7), 625–635.

Wiseman, L. “The University President: Academic Leadership in an Era of Fund Raising and Legislative Affairs.” In R. Sims and S. Sims (eds.), Managing Institutions of Higher Education into the Twenty-First Century. Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1991.

 

Websites

www.gurkul.edu

www.ru.org

Hard to Plan for a Brave New World (2000)

(Australian Financial Review, 22 February 2000).

SOHAIL INAYATULLAH

 

FINANCIAL PLANNING

How can we plan financially when the impact of technology and an ageing population promise to transform our lives, asks Sohail Inayatullah.

Even amid the “future shock” of the past 50 years, the future has been stable. It has been defined by continued economic growth a suburban home, escape from manual work, a better life for one’s children, and a nuclear family.

There are also traditional notions of the course of one’s life (birth, student, work and retirement near the ocean or golf course) and working patterns (five days a week, nine to five).

Financial planning for long-term security is an easy task when the future is similar to the past. In such a climate, things work out irrespective of when one invests in the share markets, as long as one keeps on investing.

Of course, say the planners, investing should be balanced, and the sooner you start, the better. But in the year 2000, can we confidently assert there will be a continuation of the trend of rising markets, of the move from industrial to post-industrial, of increasing wealth for the top- and for the middle-class in western nations?

Going back a generation, researchers in a 10-nation survey asked 9,000 people 200 questions focused on this year. They were asked to predict the future (Images of the World in the Year 2000, edited by Johan Galtung and Robert Jungk).

What they saw was the dark side of the “continued growth” future. Says Galtung: “More sexual freedom, less attachment to families, more divorce, more mental illness, more narcotics and more criminality, a future of highly materialistic, egocentric individuals striving for personal pleasure and benefit.”

What people saw was a gap between the image of the future an endless array of new technologies leading to progress and the reality of their own, increasingly meaningless lives. They saw the

postmodern future and, for Australians the reality is borne out in our youth suicide rates.

It is this social vacuum that has historically characterised a time between eras, but what will the new era we have entered look like? Can we plan for such an era?

In visioning workshops conducted by this author in Taiwan, New Zealand, Thailand, Germany and Australia, two alternative futures emerged.

The first is the continued growth scenario and the second is an organic, green future. In this “green” future, technology is still central but relationship with nature, God and neighbours is more important than getting a new yacht.

But the future may be dramatically different from either of these forecasts and three growing trends challenge them.

Ageing: First, an ageing population means retirement pensions are difficult to sustain (the ratio of worker to retiree will dip from 3:1 to 1.5:1). Second, who will buy shares when baby-boomers sell for their retirements? Third, whose hard work will drive the economy? Fourth, can we imagine a world with an average age of 40 instead of the historical 20?

Genetics: Discoveries occurring daily may mitigate against the decline in elderly health. Also on the horizon are the creation of synthetic DNA, computers that use DNA instead of chips to store information, cloning, designer babies and the unlinking of sex and reproduction.

Few would object to gene therapy for curing illnesses or preventive gene therapy for foetuses, but there is a fast slide down the slippery slope from genetic prevention to genetic enhancement. Already on Wall Street, the stock prices of genetic companies are starting the quick rise upwards, not yet like .com companies, but the next likely wave.

To assume the genetic future is far away is a huge mistake. With the mapping of human genomes soon to be concluded, next will be social engineering on a massive scale.

Will insurance companies give life and critical illness insurance to those with inappropriate genes? With germ line engineering (the manipulation of genes we pass to our children) the genetic structure of future generations will be modified, eliminating diseases and “undesirable” traits. For more information, try http://research.mednet.ucla.edu/pmts/germline.

Jobs and work: A multitude of job categories are being created that did not exist a few years ago. While genetic counselling will certainly be a boom career, the deeper question is: will there be jobs in the future? Again not a question with a simple answer. There are three scenarios. The first is: 10 per cent work and 90 per cent don’t. The second scenario is: 30 per cent work full time, 40 per cent are in contract work and 30 per cent remain unemployed. The last scenario is full employment the dream of all liberal governments but, with women working and technology eliminating work, the least likely.

The big question remains: can a future about to be transformed by ageing, genetics and the internet be stable and secure? Can it be planned for?

When your financial planner gives you high-growth, medium-growth and slow-growth scenarios for your investments, ask what will happen if the world dramatically changes, transforming assumptions of continued growth, changing how we work, how we age and the very basis of life.

Trends Transforming the Futures of General Practice and Practitioners: Or is there a doctor in your future(s)? (2000)

Presentation to the Queensland Divisions of General Practice, Brisbane, February 11, 2000

By Sohail Inayatullah

 

FUTURES

To begin with, the purpose of futures thinking is only marginally prediction. More important is opening up the future to alternative interpretations. This allows a discussion, a debate, of alternative presents. Basic assumptions of what we believe is most significant, what we think is the true state of affairs, and how best we desire to change the world can thus be questioned.

To understand the future, futurists tend to use a range of methods. These include:

  • Trend analysis – a quantitative approach to the shape of change
  • Emerging issue analysis– the search for issues that have the promise to foundationally society. These issues are often irrelevant to immediate strategic concerns but crucial to map as they can sidetrack any strategy.
  • Scenarios – stories or pictures, considered an easy and elegant way to map the future. Scenarios can be global, operational, convergent or divergent.
  • Visioning – determining the future one desires
  • Anticipatory Action learning – quite the opposite of strategic planning consisting of creating the future through experiments, and then following a cycle of reflection, action, reflection, always questioning and improving the process.

This said what are the likely futures of general practice in the next ten to fifteen years? Which trends are opening up the future and which are constricting what is possible? To understand the future we must find a balance between our personal and collective desires as well as with structure -real economic, political, technological, cultural drivers and forces that are already creating the future. Indeed, while many claim the future five to ten years hence requires a crystal ball, the opposite is true. The short-term future is the known future, forces, giant waves of change, are already underway. While we can ride these forces, little can be changed.

Merely desiring other futures in the short run, while important in setting up alternative action steps, generally can change very little. Thus the need for an expanded time horizon in which real change is possible.

TRENDS TRANSFORMING GP FUTURES

Five trends are crucial: Globalisation, the internet revolution, the genetics revolution, the multicultural swing and ageing. The first two are full blown trends while the latter three are emerging, and will, I believe, create futures that we are unrecognizable to us today.

Globalisation

For the general practitioner what is relevant is that Globalisation leads to:

  1. More and quicker access to news and technological breakthroughs elsewhere. This is true for doctors as well as patients. Moreover, under the pressure of Globalisation, universal definitions of health are far more difficult to hold on to. [1]
  2. The corporatisation of businesses, partly the buying out of national business to global players, but as well the adoption of the corporate business model for all service providers. For small practices, corporatisation usually means vertical integration. At the national and global level, it means the merger of giant pharmaceutical companies. Doctors will have to develop strategies to fend off vertical integration (through strategic alliances) or through setting up of their own national corporation or at the very least ensure that corporatisation occurs on their terms.
  3. Globalisation is also a direct challenge to the welfare state model, in the health field to the idea of universal cover.[2] Whether for ideological reasons (privatization or market forces are more efficient and better meet customers’ needs) or cost reasons (ageing of population, medicalisation of illnesses) universal health care, as achieved in advanced OECD nations, is under threat.
  4. While the debate between cradle to grave versus a mix of private/public or totally private goes back and forth, Australia’s generous model of Medicare is unlikely to continue.
  5. Globalisation also changes the governance context of health futures. It makes national boundaries far more porous. While not eliminating the nation-state, it certainly makes action at the very local level (the shire council), the associative (with local and transnational non-governmental organisations) and at the very global (the entire host of UN families, WHO), far more potent. However the de-evolution of responsibility has generally not come with concomitant funds, thus changing the local-federal power relations and expectations. However, this loss of local funding has been partly solved by an expanding civil society, the gamut of local and international nongovernmental organisations, from Medicine sans Frontiers to Amnesty International.

The Internet Revolution (IR)

Working in tandem with globalisation, indeed, accelerating this process is the .com revolution. While currently this is web-based, very soon this will expand to higher levels of virtualisation. This will lead to the always on, wearable computers, or web-bots. These emergent health bots may take a robotic form or a more virtual form – either a robodoc or an always- present doctors.com.[3]

In a rudimentary form, telemedicine is already current underway in Australia (2000 hours of consultations are conducted monthly)[4] and consists of:

  • tele-assistance, consulting with doctors using email and videoconferencing
  • using nurses to preform simple procedures supervised by video-linked doctors (remote supervision)
  • Access to research data bases as well as potentially a medical records database

The justification and goal of telemedicine is to use technology wisely so that the institutional care costs (21billion dollars of the 46$billion Australian dollar budget) are reduced.[5]

However, we should not be lulled into thinking this is a win-win technology. The internet revolution will take away business for certain GPs. Individuals are already going to doctors.com sites for general informational purposes. Overtime this will lead to therapeutic assistance. Already webmd/Healtheon, the .com business, is a huge business in the US, currently capitalised at 8.5 billion. Moreover, while at a superficial level it appears that the information era means that economies now enter win-win relations (passing on information to another does not diminish one’s own information in contrast to passing on raw materials to others), in reality those who enter the new economy first create infrastructure monopolies or lock-ins. The smart get smarter and instead of diminishing returns there are increasing returns. Earlier entrants into the internet – digital doctor space – will be able to capture attention, visual space, one of the most important characteristics of success in the new economy. They will grow and have an advantage over traditional practices as well as later cyber med entrants.

Moreover, our understanding of cyberspace should not be limited by its current function. For example, in the near term future, sensors will be developed that detect health problems through the smell of breath and alert doctors for early diagnosis.[6]

As the web develops, we can anticipate health-bots or health coaches, that is, always-on wearable computers. They will provide individualized immediate feedback to our behavior, for example, letting us know caloric intake, the amount of exercise needed to burn off the pizza we just ate. They will also let us know the make-up of each product we are considering purchasing, helping us to identify allergies, for example. [7]These intelligence computer systems would be reflexive knowledge systems, learning about us and our preferred and not so preferred external environment.

Writes health futurist Clement Bezold:

Future approaches to heart problems reflect ongoing changes in health care and biomedical knowledge. In 2010, our DNA profile will be part of our electronic medical record, and our genetically based proclivity to major diseases, including heart disease, will be known. There will be sophisticated, low-cost, noninvasive or minimally invasive biomonitoring devices; for example, a wristwatch device will provide very accurate, ongoing information on your health status.

You will likely have powerful in-home expert systems, probably supplied by your health-care provider, which will not only aid diagnosis but also reinforce pursuit of your chosen health goals. These expert systems, or electronic personal guides, will tailor the information to your own knowledge level, interest level, and learning style, as well as those of your family members, each of whom would have a personal electronic “health coach.” If you are genetically or otherwise inclined to heart disease, your coach will encourage specific preventive measures[8]

The assumption here is that 50% of the variance of the causes of preventable premature death is due to behavior (20% genes, 20% environment and 10% is related to medical care).[9] It is this 50% that that the health-bot – the health professional on a wrist – will help us manage. [10]We can always take it off unless insurance companies step in and require their continuous use for cheaper premiums. Of course, geneticists argue that genes play a much bigger role than 20% and it is genomics and germ-line engineering that will have a far more profound impact on our health.

The questions for gps is: will doctors.com and health-bots squeeze traditional practitioners or give them a new way to meet patient’s needs? Can GPs help design the content of these new health tools or will they be passive recipients?

In the long run, this means that there will be smarter consumers who will check on research studies and be able to maneuver in a world of conflicting data and conflicting paradigms. Smarter and more empowered consumers should make the jobs of GPs easier. However, as smart cards and health-bots continue to evolve, their intelligence will certainly reduce doctor’s visits, saving money to the health system but as well forcing GPs to reconsider their role in the health system. GPs, however, will need to quickly become net-savvy, seeing it as a way to communicate with patients especially younger patients raised on the net – the .com generation. [11]

We know that every year 85% of Australians visit a GP – over 100 million GP consultations. Every year these consultations cost 2.5billion aud.[12] And every year other costs resulting from visits to GPs, such as drug prescriptions, tests and investigations, and specialists visits, add up to more than 7billion aud$. The question is: might doctors.com reduce these costs?

Or will health-bots become the new gatekeepers, that is, will the technology in itself become the new middle-man? And if so, will they be able to ensure patients rights, one of the key dimensions of the GPs work. The other dimensions being: business, profession, part of the health bureaucracy, and community centre.

Indeed, we can well see how globalisation and the internet revolution further individualize medicine reducing the probability of the community health paradigm.

A question for GPs is: should they have their own websites or should the Practice have a web kiosk there so that patients can go to doctors.com and get basic information. Should they recommend particular websites? Is it ethical to do so? How can they best use the new technologies and ensure they are not used by them? They will need to use them, already estimates of e-business are to go from 61 million in 1997 to 1.3 billion aud in 2001.[13]

The third revolution is genetics

The first step in the genetics revolution is identifying what diseases one is predisposed to. Next is gene therapy (replacing a defective gene and therefore a disease causing gene with a healthy one). Further sophisticated and quite likely is body part cloning (growing replica parts to replace faulty ones). Combined with the information and technology revolution, we will have hospitals on our wrists, actually, within our bodies.

Genomics thus will identify what genes and what physical of behavioral characteristics (genotypes and phenotypes) are most relevant for determining how to treat a given condition. This allows for customization (the claim interestingly of alternative/complimentary whole person therapies as well).

Will the GP need to become the genetic counselor as well? Or will the GP need to ensure that a genetic counselor is on board?

Leroy Hood, William Gates Professor of Biomedical Sciences and the founding Chair of the Department of Molecular Biology at the University of Washington, believes that overtime we will be able to determine what genes or combination of genes cause certain types of behavior.[14] However, the genetics revolution’s full potential lies with germ line engineering, which modified or manipulates the human DNA, for example by altering the DNA of an unborn child in order to eliminate or decrease a predisposition towards a given disease. Germ line engineering can as well pre-select ideal sperm and eggs for fertilization, thus affecting the germ lines of generations to come.[15]

The mapping of human genome also transforms the nature of science, making it global and discovery-based instead of hypothesis-based. It also changes biology from its historical machine metaphor to an informational metaphor. There appear at this stage few limits with science fiction even too timid. Already the first synthetic DNA was created by scientists at the University of Texas. Researchers are “planning to create a series of designer bugs, with super efficient mechanisms for infecting target tissues such as cancer tumors, and then killing them[16]

And if nano-technology delivers what it promises than our entire bodies will become a pharmaceutical factory, reading to detect, diagnose and react to imbalances, says Bezold.[17]

The claims of the Foresight Institute headed by Eric Drexler are equally grand[18]

  • A mouthwash full of smart nanomachines could do all that brushing and flossing do and more, and with far less effort—making it more likely to be used. This mouthwash would identify and destroy pathogenic bacteria while allowing the harmless flora of the mouth to flourish in a healthy ecosystem
  • Medical nanodevices could augment the immune system by finding and disabling unwanted bacteria and viruses.
  • Medical nanodevices will be able to stimulate and guide the body’s own construction and repair mechanisms to restore healthy tissue
  • Viruses can be eliminated by molecular-level cellular surgery. The required devices could be small enough to fit entirely within the cell, if need be. Greg Fahy, who heads the Organ Cryopreservation Project at the American Red Cross’s Jerome Holland Transplantation Laboratory, writes, “Calculations imply that molecular sensors, molecular computers, and molecular effectors can be combined into a device small enough to fit easily inside a single cell and powerful enough to repair molecular and structural defects (or to degrade foreign structures such as viruses and bacteria) as rapidly as they accumulate. . . .There is no reason such systems cannot be built and function as designed.”[19]

Multiculturalism

The fourth trend can be termed loosely the multicultural trend. By this I mean (1) the social construction of medicine movement, for example, mapping how diseases are named, called and treated variously in different nations. (2) The move toward alternative medicine or complimentary medicine, primarily drawing on Chinese and Indian traditions of meditation and acupuncture but as well less accepted alternatives such as homeopathy (from Germany).

The data is stunning. In the US, a Harvard Medical School Study reports that 64% of medical schools offered elective courses in complementary medicine.[20] The study also reports that one in every three American adults uses such alternative treatments such as chiropractic, acupuncture and homeopathy. They assert that: “patients see conventional medicine as ineffectual, too expensive or too centered on curing disease rather than maintaining good health.”[21]

In Australia, the estimate in a 1993 study is 621million aud for alternative medicine and 309 million for alternative therapists. [22]This compares with 360 million aud for all classes of pharmaceutical drugs purchased in Australia in 1992/93.[23]

Users tended to be female and better educated. But what accounts for this? Is it the deficiencies in conventional care? And what accounts for this when one can question the paucity of sound safety and efficacy data, ask many GPs.

An article in the Medical Journal of Australia finds that Victoria over 80% of general practitioners have referred patients to alternative therapies. 34% are trained in meditation, 23% acupuncture and 20% herbal medicine. Of particular interest is that nearly all GPs agreed that acupuncture should be funded and 91% believe hypnosis should and 77% believe meditation should and 69% for chiropractic. 93% believe that it should be part of the undergraduate core curriculum.[24]

Doctors worry about the professionalism of alternative practitioners as well as scientific studies supporting them. It is likely that the therapies supported by doctors are those with strong empirical evidence, for example, Dean Ornish’s focus on life style changes (diet, stress management, personal growth, reducing social isolation and exercise) has shown that heart disease can be reversed. A major insurance company pays for individuals to attend his program.[25] Data around the world shows interest among GP increasing as well as by users.

However, what may account for the interest and use in alternative therapies is that they empower individuals as alternative therapists tend to spend greater amounts of time with users and attempt to customize therapy. This is the suggested by George T Lewith, Honorary Senior Research Fellow and Honorary Consultant Physician, School of Medicine, University of Southampton, United Kingdom, in his review of the literature on complementary medicine.

He writes: [26]

Disenchantment with conventional medicine is not necessarily the reason why patients turn to CAM. One suggestion is that patients are increasingly knowledgeable about CAM and seek a more egalitarian process within the consultation. It has been confirmed that patients seek CAM because of an intuitive feeling that it could offer them a more appropriate medical model for their illness. Patients may therefore not be seeking proof of efficacy of particular treatments, but meaning and context for their illness, thus allowing them the freedom to benefit from therapeutic consultations within their chosen milieu. Why should we impose our medical model on patients? Their use of CAM may be their process of empowerment, which in turn allows them to contain and manage their chronic illness. It is perhaps difficult for those of us educated within the conventional medical system to allow our patients the freedom to make such journeys in a truly egalitarian manner.

Support for a model more in tune with the Australian population may also come from the changing demographics of medical students in Australia. There will be more students from a rural background, more from an Asian background, but most significantly admissions policies are now being expanded to include the qualities of communication, tolerance, insight into others’ worldviews, and commitment to patients and their interests as a priority.[27]

Ageing

There is a fifth trend that is ageing, suffice to say it will be dramatic. While genomics, health-bots and alternative therapies may make us healthier, the data generally does not look good for the aged.

The average person is sick or disabled for nearly 80 percent of the extra years of life he or she gains as life expectancy rises. [28] Health expenditure for Australians over 65 is already four times higher than for the rest of the population. The World Health Organization estimates that by 2020 depression will be the leading cause of “disability adjusted life years“ dramatically increasing the demands for psychiatric health services for young and old. [29] The aged, particularly those removed from family and community, will be especially prone to mental illnesses. In Queensland, Australia the proportion of those over 60 years will increase from 15% in 1995 to 23% in 2031. Already 25% of those over 65 demonstrate functional psychiatric disorders.[30]

The financial implications will be tremendous as well – the retiree to worker ratio will go from the 3 to 1 to 1.5 to 1. Who will buy the stocks when baby boomers sell for retirement as there is no age cohort of that size and income level to follow? [31]How will society react to the average age going from 20 to 40?[32] Where will innovation come from?

Moreover the WHO reports that while ageing is dramatic problem so the global teenager. By 2025 the teenager cohort will have grown by 252 million from two thousand million in 2001.[33]

THE CHOICES AHEAD

Given these futures what should the GP do. There are a few distinct options:

  1. Multi-door health community centre which has a high tech component, a genetic counselor and complimentary medicine. While GPs might remain the gatekeepers, they will have to augment their understanding of the Net, becoming knowledge navigators. However, GPs will have to focus as well as on what technology cannot give – warmth, human understanding and empathy – as well as what some alternative therapies cannot give either, tough, rigorous analysis. It is this multiple function in the context of respect and authority that will GPs ahead of the curve.

The challenge will be to find the value added, to anticipate the changing health needs of citizens instead of assuming that patients will be like yesterday’s patients. We already know that generation x is more aspiration driven concerned about the environment and the community than previous generations.[34] Indeed, what shows up consistently in research around the world on preferred visions of the future is that individuals, especially in the West, have a great need and desire for community, for interconnection. [35]Individuals want to believe and feel that the GP is not far away but part of their community. GPs that can best develop the multi-door health center in the context of community medicine will prosper.

  1. Become or remain a mass provider, the bulkbilling scenario. This in the short run might be the way to go but health-bots and the internet are likely to reduce the profits on the mass market health business. The mass market health care dollars might go to the new technologies. Especially as the patient-in, patient-out system appears to be what users do not want. However, it is cheap. The question is: will it retain its value for money? The answer to this question is partly based on what type of economy and health system Australia will have? Will it manage to retain universal care? In any case, for the medicare system to survive, there will have to be some level of internet technology as well, clicks and mortar, and the rapidly ageing and not necessarily healthy (but possibly with genomics and nano-technology around the corner) age-cohort.
  1. Find specific niches not being met by doctors.com, the alternative system or genomics. Or excel at one of these niche areas, that is, become the best possible GP knowledge navigator, It might also mean finding new partners, expanding beyond the federal or state levels to international non-governmental health organizations – the global third sector. Or focus on specific demographic groups – the global teenager and the aged who will need extra care and find out what their specific needs are. This also means designing waiting rooms in practices to reflect their ideals.

The question is: will these trends impact the three most common reasons for people going to their GPs (prescriptions, coughs and cardiac check-ups) Yes or no. What new reasons might they go to GPs for, new diseases?

What this means is that GPs will have to reinvent themselves, discerning what role they desire for themselves in the future. They will need to ask what level of technology are they familiar with, can they adapt to? Can they become knowledge navigators? Can they use the new technologies to increase their own quality of life, using the Net for seamless administration, so that their hours can be more flexible? Can they enter into dialogue with complementary medicine or at least begin to listen carefully to patient’s concerns about their treatment, that is, about their body-mind-spirit-environment-community needs?

If GPs are unable to reinvent themselves and meet the changing needs of their patients then one future is clear: general practitioners will come to be considered as quaint alternative medicine practitioners – the definition of general practice will have changed.

CONCLUSION

If we go back a century or even 30 years, we know that changes in science and technology have been tremendous. There is no let up in sight. In such an environment, trying to forecast the future accurately is a mistake. Determining alternative futures is a step forward as worst case and best case scenarios can be developed. Scenarios based on different drivers – technology, values, economics – can be explored. But more important than scenario planning is developing institutional foresight, the capacity to respond to changing needs, to create a multicultural learning and growing organization, community. GP organizations, state divisions will need to swiftly embark on creating health learning organizations that exemplify the type of future they want.


[1] See, Which-doctors diagnose us: Medicine still tribal in our high-tech era. The Sunday Star-Bulletin and Advertiser (Honolulu, March 12, 1989), d-2. Noteworthy is: Lynn Payer, Medicine and Culture.

[2] See, Roy Moynihan, Professor warns of Medicare’s ultimate demolition, The Australian Financial Review (February 17, 2000), 5.

[3] For more on this, see bochemist and medical journalist Alexandra Wyke’s 21st Century Miracle Medicine: RoboSurgery, Wonder Cures, and the Quest for Immortality (Plenum, 1997). Writes Wyke: Surgey will depend not on the steady hand and experience of the doctor but on devices such as the recently invented ROBODOC, combined with new imagery technology and computers that essentially make flesh and bone transparent in 3-D images, allowing machines to make cuts or dissolve tumors and blockages in exactly the right place.

[4] See, Call the doctor online, The Sunday Mail (January 2, 2000), 7. Smartcards are already used by the USA army where soldiers carry their medical history on a comuterized dogtag. See: www.coh.uq.edu.au at www.health.qld.gov.au/qtn

[5] ibid.

[6] Sausage Part of World Forum, The AustralianIT, (February 8, 2000) 55.

[7] See, for example, Sohail Inayatullah, Eco-bots in you future, The Age (forthcoming, 2000).

[8] See Clement Bezold, Will heart disease be eliminated in your lifetime? The best of health futures, Futures Research Quarterly (Summer 1995) and The Future of Complementary and Alternative approaches in US Health Care. Institute for Alternative Futures, 1998.

[9] Ibid, Clement Bezold, Will heart disease be eliminated in your lifetime?, 30.

[10] See, for example, Mike Hollinshead, Alternative Futures for Health Care in 2018. Available from Facing the Future. 150003, 56 Avenue, Edmonton, AB, T6H 5B2.

[11] See Heather Gilmore, Younger shoppers opt for the Net. The Courier-Mail (February 21, 2000), 6. Gilmore reports that the number of young people on the Net has tripled in the past year in Australia.

[12] See, press releases and reports from, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. http://www.aihw.gov.au/

[13] NOIE, E-commerce Beyond 2000. See, Mark Hollands, Internet dreaing drives dot.com fury, The Australian IT (8 February 2000), 51. Also see www.economist.com for the latest data on the new economy.

[14]See: Celebrated biotechnologist Dr. Leroy Hood addresses attendees, Humanity 3000 News (vol. 2, No. 2, 1999), 1 and 7.

[15] See: http://health.upenn.edu/~bioethic/webget/archives.html

[16] The Sunday Times in the Australian, January 25, 2000, pg. 1.

[17] Bezold, Will heart disease be eliminated in your life time, 38.

[18] See the website: Unbounding the Future: the Nanotechnology Revolution – www.forsight.org see, Robert A. Freitas: Respirocytes – A Mechanical Artificial Red Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology at http://www.foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html

[19] Ibid, www.forsight.org

[20] Yahoo News, Harvard Medical School Study, September 1, 1998.

[21] Ibid.

[22] Maclenan AH, Wilson, DH, Taylor, AW, Prevalence and cost of alternative medicine in Australia, Lancet, 1996, March 2: 347(9001): 569-73

[23] ibid. Also see, Health Harmony, The Sunday Mail (January 2, 2000), 7.

[24] Marie V. Pirotta, March M Cohen, Vicki Kotsirilos and Sstephen J Farish, Complementary therapies: have they become accepted in general practice? MJA 2000; 172: 105-109.

[25] Clement Bezold, Health Care Faces a Dose of Change, The Futurist (April 1999), 30-33.

[26] See: Complementary and alternative medicine: an educational, attitudinal and research

challenge: We need to understand more about these treatments, why they are being used, and what makes them effective. MJA 2000; 172: 102-103

[27] New breed of doctors on the way – www.aihw.gove.au/releases/1998/csams89-96.html. Accessed January 2000.

[28] Beth J. Soldo and Emily M. Agree quoted from the USA Population Reference Bureau’s bulletin, American’s Elderly in Cheryl Russell, American Demographics, March 1989 v11 n3 p2(1).

[29] www.who.org, See, World Health Organization, The Global Burden of Disease, 1996. http://www.who.int/.   See, Caring for Mental Health in the Future. Seminar report commissioned by the Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios. Kluver Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1992, 315. See as well: The Global Movement for Active Ageing. http://www.who.org/ageing/global_movement/index.html.

[30] “To a Queensland Disability Policy and Strategy,” DFFCC, 1997, 12 (Discussion Paper) quoted in Ivana Milojevic, Home and Community Care Services: Generic or Discriminatory, HACC Action Research Project. Report to Catholic Social Response, Auspicing Body, 1999, 35.

[31] See Peter Peterson, Gray Dawn. New York, Random House, 1999.

[32] See Sohail Inayatullah, Ageing Futures: From Overpopulation to World Underpopulation, ” The Australian Business Network Report (Vol. 7, No. 8, October, 1999), 6-10.

[33] www.who.org/hpr/expo/futures11.html. Accessed January 2000. WHO Health Futures – Major trends shaping health.

[34] See www.pophouse.com.au – the work of Rosemary Herceg. See, Future News, GenXers: Quiet Revolutionaries (August, 1999).

[35] See, Sohail Inayatullah,Youth Futures, in Jennifer Gidley and Sohail Inayatullah, Youth Futures. Manuscript in preparation.

Home Alone and Stuck in the Office (1999)

SOHAIL INAYATULLAH (Australian Financial Review, October 1, 1999).

Far from being fun, working from home may increase domestic pressures and social isolation, writes Sohail Inayatullah.

John Worthington works from home. He saves on petrol and gets to spend more time with his children and his wife. He drives to his inner-city office once or twice a week for meetings with colleagues. A win-win story? Perhaps, perhaps not.

The internet, while making it possible to telecommute, is still much slower at home than at most offices. However, in a decade or so, with information piped through cable (this is ATT’s big gamble) it will become lightning quick.

Also, although individuals like John Worthington no longer spend long lunches with office friends, they do have their new virtual communities: friends from various email groups they are part of. And in the next 10 years, they will not only be able to read their emails, they will be able to see and hear them with v-net (visual net).

And yet all is not quite well. There is no one to help keep the house tidy. At work, any mess was cleaned up overnight. In the morning, the office was immaculate. At home, there is a constant battle between the children’s toys, the partner’s work and your own work.

Endless filing cabinets cannot solve the problem. While working from home offers a great deal of flexibility if the children become sick, work is always staring you in the face.

Moreover, life has become more anonymous. Working from the suburbs often means that the only community is the net. Office friendships, chance lunches with colleagues, and even the office will
disappear.

It will be a lonely life. Yes, the screen no longer flickers, but virtual reality is still virtual.

Digital gurus such as Microsoft’s Bill Gates and Professor Nicholas Negroponte have forgotten, in their rosy forecasts of digital nirvana, that technological change without real institutional change only makes life worse for most.

As author Marshall McLuhan warned two decades ago: “Excessive speed of change isolates already fragmented individuals.” The technology is not the issue: community and relationship is.

For Sharon Jones, the “pros” outweigh the “cons”. She too spends more time with her kids. But she wishes that they had an extended family. The net has allowed the return to the home, but the home is no longer what it used to be.

The neighborhood community does not exist. Mum and Dad are not there to help, they keep on getting sicker, and now are in an old folks home. She wishes she could get them to live with her, but she can barely manage her kids, and her husband does not make things easier insisting on working from home, but doing nothing to help around the house, as that is still a woman’s job

Just as neighbourhood shops disappeared a few years back, malls have now started to go bankrupt.

Internet shopping has reduced their traffic, and now there is nowhere to take the kids (in any case, they prefer their virtual friends). And the email grocer delivery person keeps on changing.
John and Sharon, two only slightly fictitious examples, are our present and future. Yes, we will work from home. Technological advances will let us do so. Globalism will ensure we do so, as it will save government, university and corporations on office space and other infrastructure costs.

Tenure and life-time jobs will disappear and we will be mostly contract workers. In the long term, few of us will actually work.

But the dream of telecommuting will not solve all our problems, largely because home has changed so much.

For men, home was the safe, secure space to retreat to after a hard day’s work. The kids were already in bed, and all that was left to do was eat, wash a few dishes, watch television and try and have sex with one’s wife.

But with working from home, responsibilities will begin to shift. Women will expect and demand that men help with the housework, with parenting. Not just their fair share but equal responsibility. Men will not be able to escape to the office.

While men will only have to upgrade themselves, women will continue to face a difficult and uncertain future.

Michelle Wallace, head of the School of Workplace and Development at Southern Cross University, says: “Women who try and combine work with family are considered by management as not serious about their jobs.

“Studies show that women work the `double shift’ and that men with working wives often do not share half of the domestic/family responsibilities.”

Does this mean that the more things change, the more they stay the same? Technology rearranges some of our work practices, but it does not change deeper-held beliefs of productivity, hard work and “blokism”. Without fundamental change, it only amplifies oppressive practices.

Worse, says Wallace: “The whole move to family-friendly policies [by governments in Europe, for example, especially Sweden] and increasing interface between public and private can also be seen as increasing surveillance of workers’ lives.”

The power of management over the worker expands from the office to the home. While there is a definite shift from blue collar to white collar, and in the next 10 years to no-collar workers, management may soon desire to know what you are wearing underneath that no-collar.

But are there any bright futures in all this?

First, there is an age generation gap. Older managers will try to control workers who begin to telecommute. Productivity will not be enough for them; hours worked remains their measure.
The bonding or teamwork necessary through face-to-face meetings the endless boring office meetings everyone loves to hate will also be an issue for older managers.

But younger people raised on the net might see things differently. Networking relationships less hierarchical, and more based on productivity, excellence and quadrupling the bottom line might matter more.

Generation Xers writes Rosemary Herceg, author of Seven Myths and Realities of Generation X (www.Futurists.net.au) are far more sensitive to issues of gender, environment, social justice and future generations, and the impact of our current politics on the long term.

They are also more comfortable with multi-tasking. This is not just the ability to go from one Windows application to another, but to go from editing and writing to changing nappies; to go from web designing or net commerce, to a lovely afternoon spent with one’s partner while the kids are at daycare (or busy on their own screens, since they will have become screenagers).

This new generation might also begin to rethink the home. This means homes designed not for a 19th century office, with the old teak desk, the single book case, and the quill or Parker pen, but high-tech smart homes and offices, with plenty of space for filing (electronic and paper).

This also means homes that bring the ageing and aged back in. With Australia and other OECD nations rapidly ageing one out of every four will be over 65 in a few decades and the average age will move from the historical 20 to 40, or 50 finding meaningful lives for the aged will be crucial.

Ending the world view that life ends at 40, 50 or 60 will be the first step. Ending the view that one works for 40 years and then mindlessly slips into death, or plays endless golf, will be the next step.

This means that the grand divisions we have had for centuries of the male public sphere and female private sphere will be challenged. The separation of inner city and suburbs will be next. The separation of work and play will follow soon.

An information-based post-industrial cyber era does not only mean that there will be tons more data, or that we will remove ourselves further from the farm; rather it could mean that the divisions of the industrial era are about to collapse.

A high-tech world, where work will intermingle with play, where kids and the aged will play together and communities will once again flourish once tele-decentralisation goes into full swing is quite possible. Once men move back home, they will make sure that there is money for daycare, for creating community at home.

And what of the fancy offices of inner cities? They will become like the steel mills of the industrial era. Tourism relics. Just as the foreman has disappeared from our vocabulary, the office manager, or the university professor or anyone else who needs a captive physical audience to exist will slowly disappear.

Alternatively, the digital era could reinforce managerial power, surveillance and male domination. In response, we will return to a feudal digital era, where the house becomes the man’s digital castle.
In either scenario, real changes are ahead. Welcome to the Wired World.

The Multi-cultural Challenge to Future of Education (1996)

Sohail Inayatullah

“The Multi-Cultural Challenge to the Future of Education” Periodica Islamica (Vol. 6, No. 1, 1996), 35-40;

 

In the West, multi-culturalism has come to mean better representation of minorities in public and private sector positions of authority and equal opportunity in hiring practices. “Tolerance” for other racial, linguistic, and national groups has been the catch-phrase in the swing toward multi-culturalism, in the search for a rainbow culture. But among others, Speaker of the House of Representative of the USA, Newt Gingrich is suspicious. He has argued that multi-culturalism will destroy the idea of the American nation, indeed any nation. Multi-culturalism, particularly, multi-cultural education, is evil.

While it is easy to dismiss Gingrich as merely representing a type of fascism, in fact, multi-culturalism does threaten the nation-state. Bounded by the ideals of liberalism–individuality, one version of God, in the context of an efficient marketplace–the nation-state, if it were to yield to the demands of other cultures and civilizations, would find its very cultural existence threatened. It, the nation-state, would either (continue to) undergo a violent Balkanization or it could transcend its own limitations and become multi-civilizational and global. In a sense, Gingrich is thus right. Multi-culturalism is evil but only in the context of exclusive collective representations such as the nation-state.

For those committed to creating and participating in pedagogy that allows for the authentic voices of other civilizations–that overcome the limitations of the ego-bounded rationality of the Enlightenment–multi-cultural education is about transcending the text of nationalism and creating a new type of globalism. This then is a plea for the recognition of differences that are part of the postmodern thrust but not its conclusion; a climax neither in capitalist homogeneity nor postmodern nihilism but in life-embracing unity.

But what worries Gingrich (and many others in North and South alike) is that a pedagogy of difference will eliminate the nation-state developmentalist project, will undo the hard fought gains of the Enlightenment, of progress. For the West, multi-culturalism means that the Other–for example, as Woman, as Muslim, as Taoist, as Aboriginal–will have categories of self, community and God, represented as part of normal day-to-day pedagogy. For Third World nations, this means that dissent must become part of the curriculum; that the views of religious and cultural minorities should not be seen as threatening to the dominant religion or State ideology but as part of national richness; that opposition can only strengthen the post-colonial self, not damage it.

BEYOND SHALLOW LIBERALISM

But a civilizational renaissance is not about a simple plea to pluralism. Pluralism in democratic society is about many voices vying for attention. The best ideas win out. The role of the teacher is to fairly present differing perspectives. However, pluralism remains contextualised by liberalism. Thus pluralism as currently valorized is shallow. A deeper pluralism would ask: how do differing civilizations articulate the rights of the Other and what are the points of unity in these differences?

For example, while in liberal pluralism all values are open to individual choice, in Hawaiian civilization one does not choose aina (land not real estate) or one’s genealogical relationships with ancestors. They are deep givens. In Islamic civilization as well there are certain fundamentals that bound what is possible. In ancient Tantra, as articulated in this century by Shrii P.R. Sarkar, before pedagogy begins there are moments of meditation. This permits for the intellectual mind to become pointed allowing the intuitive self greater understanding of the topic at hand. Certainly daily Tantric (or any other type) meditation sessions are not what most modernist educators have in mind when arguing for “multi-cultural education”. Most either prefer a secular model where the day begins with the national anthem or a religious model where prayer towards a particular deity announces one’s allegiances.

Multi-cultural education is about creating structures and processes that allow for the expression of the many civilizations, communities and individuals that we are. To begin this enormous task, we must first contest the value neutrality of current institutions such as the library. For example, merely including texts from other civilizations does not constitute a multi-cultural library. Ensuring that the contents of texts are not ethnocentric is an important step but this does not begin to problematize the definitional categories used in conventional libraries. We need to ask what a library would look like if it used the knowledge paradigms of other civilizations? How would knowledge be rearranged? What would the library floors look like? In Hawaiian culture, for example, there might be floors for the Gods, for the aina and genealogy. In Tantra, empirical science would exist alongside intuitional science. Floor and shelve space would privilege the superconscious and unconscious layers of reality instead of only focusing on empirical levels of the real. In Islam, since knowledge is considered tawhidic (based on the unity of God), philosophy, science and religion would no longer occupy the discrete spaces they currently do. Of course, the spatiality of “floors” must also be deconstructed. Information systems from other civilizations might not privilege book-knowledge, focusing instead on story-telling and dreamtime as well as wisdom received from elders/ancestors (as in Australian Aboriginal) and perhaps even “angels” (either metaphorically or ontologically). A multi-cultural library might look like the emerging world wide web but include other alternative ways of knowing and being. Most certainly knowledge from different civilizations in this alternative vision of the “library” would not be relegated to a minor site or constituted as an exotic field of inquiry such as Asian, Ethnic or Feminist studies, as are the practices of current libraries. The homogeneity of the library as an organizing information system must be reconstructed if we are to begin to develop the conceptual framework of multi-cultural education. To do, we must further articulate the differences that define us.

METAPHORS OF DIFFERENCE

The metaphors we use about ourselves is one indicator of this difference. For example, while the image of the unbounded ocean might represent total choice to American culture–for Muslims, the image of the ocean is seen as absurd. It is direction, toward Mecca, that is more important. Choice is bounded by tradition and the collectivity of the Ummah (the global community). For those within the Tantric worldview, it is the image of Shiva dancing between life (knowledge) and death (ignorance) that is the defining metaphor. Shiva represents simultaneous destruction and creation–the cosmos and self in purposeful process. Within modernity, it is the dice representing randomness that holds sway on most. Things in themselves have no meaning or purpose. It is what humans choose to signify that is critical for moderns and postmoderns.

Differences in metaphors not only represent deep structures in terms of how civilizations view self, other, nature but also how we “language” the world. Language is not neutral but a carrier of civilizational values, actively constituting the real. Language has become a verb, an interactive practice in the creation of new worlds. For example, it is not so much that many of us now speak English but rather that we “english” the world in our knowing and learning efforts.

Multi-cultural education is thus not only about learning and teaching more than one language but also about seeing how languages construct worldviews. Committed to avoiding the pitfalls of cultural relativism, a critical pedagogy would also investigate the epistemic costs associated with any particular language and civilization, asking which perspectives are enriched, which impoverished? We thus argue for a pedagogy of deep difference, not a shallow interest focused on advertisements that create a mythology of “we are the world”.

These differences are critical not only at the civilizational level but at national and individual levels. How we constitute knowledge is not neutral but based on the structures of various knowledge cultures. American knowledge culture is far more focused on issues of empirical operationalization than in Indic culture, where theory a la spiritual knowledge is, in general, more important. The traditional vertical relationship between guru and disciple is central. German intellectual culture, while equally hierarchical, is more concerned with the great philosophies, with the thoughts of the Masters–Hegel, Kant, Marx, for example. True knowledge is about understanding these schools of thought.

How individuals search for information and truth within these cultures also differ. In one the search is for the best university, in another for the best guru, in the third for the best thinker. Of course, modernity has been about eliminating different styles and universalizing them in the university: where knowledge and non-knowledge have come to be defined by technocratic specialists; where dissent is manufactured by hierarchical experts; and, where all differences must be scrutinized by knowledge specialists. However, the structure of the past does not so easily disappear. For example, in modern secular Indian culture, the traditional structure remains with the State and elite academic institutions now playing the role of guru.

Even avoiding or allowing for civilizational and cultural differences, individuals learn differently. We know that some learn best from doing; others from theoretical lectures; and still others through visual media. Some prefer professorial lectures; others small groups, and some one-to-one interaction. Some are analytic, others are synthetic. Some are intuitive; others sense-based; others reason-based; and still others learn through authority. Some focus on scientia (thinking), others on praxis (transformative action), others on techne (doing) and still others on gnosis (or contemplative seeing). Women and men also know and learn differently. In contrast to the individualistic style of men, research seems to support that women prefer learning in groups, working in win-win situations to achieve desirable outcomes.

However, we are not arguing from an essentialist position either with respect to civilization, ways of knowing, or individual styles. Differences in how we teach and learn are structural, based on our individual biography.   Holistic pedagogy, even while it aspires for a unity of discourse, must first unravel these differences. Teaching multi-culturalism then is far more than ensuring that one’s educational faculty is from diverse backgrounds. Civilization, language, cultural-national knowing styles, ways of knowing, and gender all confront univocal pedagogy. Pedagogical differences call for a deep pluralism in how we know and learn, for a critical political ecology of interpretation. Are we ready for such efforts? Most of us are not. It is far easier to teach by rote or to assume that one’s audience is of one mind than to teach and learn in the context of deep variation. Teaching across civilization and ways of knowing involves constant interaction with self (problematizing one’s teaching style) and with students (discerning what is happening within their worldview, in how they create meaning) as well as the categories of “self” and “student”. Dynamic cultural interaction, far more than liberalism can ever hope to aspire towards, is required.

SHARED BASICS

But to only teach differences does not suffice either. The issue is that given the Many that we are today, is there a One that can be learned about? Our futures depend on living such an ethical sensitivity. To begin with, we need to learn/teach the painful struggles we have overcome, the challenges that we have creatively resolved. But we should not only reflect on our own human history but as well include our complex interaction with Nature and the Divine. Our knowing of nature should not be as an Other to us, but as a living and breathing process that exists for itself. The divine should be conceived not as a entity that can be claimed and owned but as the ineffable, as the cosmic inspiration that leads to ever greater love, to ever greater understanding of others. The divine pulls history forward creating a progressive thrust that does not acede to narrow genderisms, nationalisms, culturisms, humanisms, or other exclusive forms of identity.

There are some basics that must be taught irrespective of difference. These are issues of how we treat one another (especially those vastly different from us), how we treat those weaker than ourselves, how we treat nature, and what our relationships with the Unknowable are. Each civilization has basic ethical guidelines. While new technologies such as gene therapy and artificial intelligence confront how we think and learn, they do not stop the more important process of asking what it means to be human. They do not stop the wondering and knowing process. Even as postmodernism relativism undoes the rationality of progress, we are called to new/ancient more inclusive levels of rationality. The true, the good, and the beautiful, or sat (truth as benevolence), chit (existence) and ananda (endless bliss) in multi-cultural education must not be lost sight of. The routes to them, the meanings we give to them, the frames we know and learn from, however, are broadened. It is this wisdom culture that multi-cultural education seeks to recover and, indeed, reinvent. Deep multi-cultural education envisions a future where the multiplicities that we are, unite in the common neo-humanity that we can be.

 

SELECTED REFERENCES

Michael Dudley and Kioni Agard, Man, Gods, and Nature. Honolulu, Ka Kane O Ka Malo Press, 1990.

Johan Galtung, “Structure, Culture and Intellectual Styles,” Social Science Information (Vol. 20, No. 6, 1981), 817-856.

Paul Wildman and Sohail Inayatullah and Paul Wildman, “Ways of Knowing and the Pedagogies of the Future,” Futures (September, 1996).

Ashis Nandy, “Shamans, Savages and the Wilderness: On the Audibility of Dissent and the Future of Civilization,” Alternatives (Vol. 15, No. 2, July 1989), 263-278.

Ziauddin Sardar, Information and the Muslim World. London, Mansell, 1988.

P.R. Sarkar, The Liberation of Intellect, Neo-Humanism. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1982.

Steve G. Steinberg, “Seek and ye shall find (maybe): On the quest for the ultimate index,” Wired (4.05, May 1996), 108-114.

Appendix

EDUCATIONAL PARADIGMS

Religious model:

Education should be about teaching the Truth of God as defined by “our” tradition. Discipline is a prerequisite to Godliness. The teacher must be obeyed and honored. There is a central text that must be memorized. Other texts and perspectives are rarely important except as anthropology.

National/Social Control Model:

Education is about keeping children and young adults off the streets. Education helps prepare individuals to be responsible members of the community and nation. Education helps create a productive labor force so that one’s nation can better compete in the world economy.

Bureaucratic Model:

This is based on the industrial factory model: “Ship them in and ship them out”. Efficiency, effectiveness and accountability are the code words. Strategic plans often focus on reorganization.

Market Model:

Universities must meet the changing needs of the customer and the customer is always right. Students should be trained for the capitalist market. Technical skills for the real world is the guiding mission.

Humanistic Model:

The university is about the enlightenment ideas of progress and reason. Teachers should bring out the best and noblest qualities (reason) in students. The ancient classics of all cultures, but especially Greek culture, should be taught. Schools can be improved by improving the teacher/student ratio.

Electronic Information model:

Pedagogy should be individually-tailored and delivered through the new technologies such as the Web. Interaction should be between student-student; student-author, and student-teacher. Teachers are primarily guides. Education is life-long based and placeless. Information can rid us of our narrow minds. Technology can and will liberate us.

Spiritual model:

Education is about remembering who we really are, our deeper most selves. Teachers should not only be facilitators but moral, inspiring examples as well. They must nurture students’ idealism and help them discover their true mission in life. Education is about learning about the inner self so as to transform society; inner and outer transformation. Technical, classical and spiritual knowledge are important in helping create the balanced person.

 

Dr. Sohail Inayatullah, The Communication Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Box 2434, Brisbane Q, 4001, Australia. Email: S.Inayatullah@qut.edu.au. He is on the editorial board of Futures, Periodica Islamica and Journal of Futures Studies and is co-editor of the WFSF Futures Bulletin. He is the author/editor of numerous books and over a 100 book chapters, journal articles, and magazine pieces. He recently completed a Reader in Futures Studies, a multicultural “book” available on the worldwideweb through Southern Cross University, Australia (url: http://www.scu.edu.au/ewt/Futures/). Forthcoming with Johan Galtung is Macrohistory and Macrohistorians: Towards a Grand Theory of Social Change (Praeger). The author would like to thank Anne Elliott of the Communication Centre for her editorial assistance and James Dator and Rick Slaughter for comments on an earlier version written for New Renaissance.

The Politics of the Dusty Plan (1986)

By Sohail Inayatullah

Futures Research Quarterly (Vol. 20, No. 4, 1986), 63-68

 

INTRODUCTION

Planning for the future in government or in business has never been a gratifying task. Planners are constantly frustrated in realizing their goals. Among other complaints, perhaps the most debilitating frustration is that plans are written and then simply discarded to lie on a shelf and gather dust. While the obvious reasons may be that the plan was poorly done, was too long, was weak in quantitative analysis, or was overly quantitative, the real reasons may in fact be the power relationships between the planner and the Chief Executive Officer and differences in how the plan and the planning process are perceived by the planner and the CEO.

Arnold Brown has argued in his article appropriately titled, “Everywhere Planners are in Pain.1” that the single most important determinate of a successful planning endeavor is not budget, method, or equipment but the relationship between the planner and the CEO. In the planning cycle, difficulties arise in the organizational relationship between the CEO and the planner, that is, there exists a difference in views between the planner’s perception and the CEO’s hope. Brown argues that there must be better lines of communication between the planner and the CEO.

THE POLITICS OF PLANNING

For Brown, the planner can reduce his pain by remembering that: “the planner’s role is to provide the means whereby the CEO can plan effectively,” that is, the planner as translator.2   To achieve this translation, most articles in the planning and futures literature present technical strategies: that is, they argue for the integration of the left and right brain, the use of common sense intuitive forecasts and strategies; for increased information through modeling or novel methodologies such as Delphi or Emerging Issues Analysis3.   While these may help the planner in writing a better plan–as judged the elegance of the plan itself–these methods have very little to do with the politics of planning, the implementation of the plan or the orga­nizational self-awareness that can emerge from a participatory planning process. It is often the case that “the Boss loved the plan, but nothing came out of it.” Planners remain unaware that the objectives of their plan may be ultimately different from that of the CEO or the organization itself.

However differences in objectives between planners and the CEO is not necessarily an idiosyncratic problem that planners have; rather, it is part of the politics of the planning process, part of the structure of organizations. It is this process that I wish to discuss and elabo­rate. Concretely, I wish to discuss the politics of the “dusty” plan.

For the planner, the plan is an expression of his or her vision. Although it includes ideas and suggestions of line personnel as well as top management, it is still the planner’s work. The planner hopes that through the plan his relationship will change from researcher (techni­cian) or implementer to advisor or co-decision-maker. Walter Blass has developed similar categories that describe this relationship. He talks of “planner as frustrated mechanic” and “planner as ever the bridesmaid,” and finally “planner as meddler or would be king.”

However, just as intellectuals and priests took away power from the monarchy, top executives fear planners will take away their power. And justifiably so. The planner certainly understands the organization at an operational and philosophical level. The planner also through the plan writing process learns about the organization’s history. Through this historical understanding, the planner is equipped to develop the orga­nization’s alternative futures. Writing of the plan gives power. In industrial culture, the written word is power. Words and language not only define the world, they create the world and given ownership of this creation to the writer. The planner thus can create history and future. This emphasis of the written word is especially true for planners trained in law.

Blass writes that “proximity to the seat of power must be handled with humility and reserve.4” However, even if this is done, the poli­tics of institutional and organizational relationships will force the CEO to make it clear that he is the planner, and the planner simply an articulator of his ideas. This is not an easy real-politik lesson to acknowledge. Nor is the realization that the best ways to see one’s ideas furthered is to gently include them in conversation such that the CEO thinks that they are his for such an act acknowledges the vertical structure of organizational power and the planners lowly place in this structure.

SYMBOLIC POLITICS

Beyond organizational power relationships, often the real purpose of the plan as perceived by the CEO and the planner may be quite differ­ent. The plan is a symbolic document. This is especially so in govern­mental agencies. The CEO may simply want to have a document to show a particular body–the state legislature, or a Federal funding agency, such as the LEAA in the criminal justice field, or even to stockholders in the private sector–that the institution has entered the world of modern management. A plan is symbolic of the effective use of resources. It is a way of saying, “yes we are doing something about x problem.” Agencies use plans to diffuse criticism: that is, “we are working on it.” Even in the private sector, where there is a clear motive for operations – profit – and a clear result if targets are not met (loss of market share) similar problems exist. Lack of relevance to immediate business problems is an excuse often used for a shelved plan. However, the intention of the plan from the view of the CEO may have been simply to impress the board of directors that modernity had been achieved. In both sectors, plans and planning are used to obscure deeper organizational problems.

POST-PLAN DEPRESSION

Thus for the organization, the plan itself, not its content, and especially not its implementation, is what is important. The planner, however, often sees the plan as an expression of his vision of the institution’s future, the plan becomes an extension of him or herself.   From the planner’s perspective, the plan is a vehicle of change, or organizational revitalization. For the CEO, it may be simply an ex­pression of prestige. Thus, when the plan is put on the shelf the planner is dismayed and enters “post-plan depression” . The CEO, of course, proudly displays the plan on his shelf. Where else should it go? His goal has been accomplished. Praise has been lavished. Funds received. Criticism diffused. The knighthood of modern management bestowed.

The CEO already has a way to do business, to make decisions, to understand the future. He already has a worldview, a set of priorities, and although he asked for the plan in the first place, it is certainly not because he wants his world restructured, reorganized or reprior­itized. He may simply want to decrease the uncertainty of the external socio-economic environment as well as manage various difficult to control internal programs and individuals.

Plans are symbolic. They evoke the future. They accomplish political motives. The Hawaii Judiciary, for example, has developed a reputation for excellence in planning largely due to its innovative comprehensive planning documents. However, while these are used by court planners all over the USA, the Hawaii Judiciary still has not implemented its plans, nor has it adopted a strategic plan. They purpose of the planning process, was, in retrospect, simple to further unify and centralize the courts and to justify future judicial growth.

Plans are also used within organizations by programs to increase their power or to articulate their vision. However, this too can be problematic. A plan developed for a local YMCA, although accurate, elegant and practical turned out to be useless. Since the Central YMCA was not interested in examining a plan from a lower level branch, it could not be operationalized at the local level, nor was the larger purpose of convincing the Central YMCA–that the YMCA’s market share and prestige as a premiere national and international volunteer association would continue to decline–realized. Thus, another dusty plan was added to the garbage heap of unused plans. Other experiences by colleagues in various state agencies have followed the same pattern. To gain Federal funding or assuage Legislative auditors a plan is written. Once writ­ten, it is shelved.

UNDERSTANDING THE PROCESS

However, a plan gathering dust does not mean that the plan failed, or that the planning process is worthless. Mere gesturing. Simply planners must see their work in the overall institutional, organization­al sense. Of course, occasionally, ideas and recommendations are followed through and implemented. But, even here, the language of implementation rarely acknowledges the source of the ideas, nor does it follow the logic of the plan. The planner does not become bride or chief advisor, he or she remains the frustrated technician.

For the planner to avoid post plan depression, he should understand the politics of the planning process, that is the motives of the orga­nization and the CEO and the respective role at the face and symbolic level of the key actors. However, to confront the CEO and argue that he or she simply wants the plan for symbolic reasons will not produce the desired results for the planner. The CEO will simply argue – and will believe it – that the plan is being written to be implemented. However, his definition of what constitutes implementation may differ from the planner’s. For the CEO, it is he who solves problems, the planner simply points to future problems to solve.

A WAY OUT?

To begin with, the planner must also see the writing of the plan and the political consensus building necessary for a plan to gain acceptance, as a process of organizational self-learning. The purpose of the plan, then becomes a vehicle for individuals to discover their role–or lack thereof–in the organization; for CEO’s to discern what really is going on in the organization. This process, however, often uncovers the organization’s dark side–the desire for empire building among lower level bureaucrats and the desire for organizational growth even when public–citizens and consumers–demand does not warrant such growth. Thus CEO’s, aware of the chaos and change that might occur when an organization is aware of its dark side, usually attempt to tightly control the planning process by only defining the goal of the planner as the production of a written plan or in a some similar technical and apolitical fashion.

Is there then a way out? Given the politics of organizations and their vertical power structures and the desire of humans to control others, to use plans and planning to expand the power and worldview of their own egos, probably not. The best the planner can do is understand the politics of who wants what and why on the conscious personal level and the unconscious institutional level. He could also simply leave the planner role, start his own business or government, and become King. Then he would have free reign to impose his or her vision or as the case often is, ego.

However, if living in the world of power, wealth, and ego is the central problem, then the planner in the fashion of the urban guerrilla can attempt to redesign the organization by creating more horizontal participatory structures. He or she could also, knowing that real people are suffering in bureaucracies or “in hell holes known as insti­tutions,”5 as in the case of the criminal justice or mental health system, become not a writer of plans but a political actor–a social activist or lobbyist. The planner then must redefine his or her role, organize and then convince decision-makers through information, confron­tation, debate, and compromise of his or her perspective hoping that the planning process will force organizational and individual self-awareness.

If this is not enough or too much, then the planner should work at political and spiritual transformation on a global and individual levels hitherto unheard of in human history. In the mean time, the planner can write the plan, and then, as he receives praise from top management and as the plan is shelved, he can in a yogic zen-like fashion watch the dust gather and smile. If none of these alternatives suffice then it may be wise to switch professions. However patho-bureaucracies and egos in search of power appear to be the rule in this world, not the excep­tion.

 

Notes

*        Sohail Inayatullah is senior policy analyst/futurist at the Office of the Administrative Director, the Hawaii Judiciary, PO Box 2560, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822. He also is planning consultant to Mid-Pacific Institute, a private school in Hawaii. The opinions expressed in this article are not necessarily shared by any organizations that the author is affiliated with.

  1. Arnold Brown, “Everywhere Planners are in Pain,” Long Range Planning, (Vol. 16, No. 3, 1983), p. 18-21.
  1. ibid. p. 19.
  1. See Geoffrey Fletcher, “Key Concepts in the Futures Perspective” World Future Society Bulletin (January-February, 1979), pp. 25-31.
  1. Walter Blass, “Ten Years of Business Planners,” Long Range Planning, (Vol. 16. No. 3, 1983), p. 21-24.
  1. Wayne Yasutomi, Development Disabilities planner. Personal communications sent to the author.