Impact of New Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) on Socioeconomic and Educational Development of Africa and the Asia-Pacific (2000)

A PILOT STUDY

Levi Obijiofor and Sohail Inayatullah with Tony Stevenson

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This preliminary research on ICT adoption in Africa and the Asia-Pacific suggests that there are serious barriers to their use in educational and socioeconomic development, such as issues of infrastructure support, access to the ICTs, training and skills development, and hierarchical social relations which determine who has access to ICTs. Generally ICTs are considered appropriate, even though there remain concerns over economic priorities, basic needs or computers.

However, the implementation of ICTs is occurring in a context where the cultural and institutional barriers are not well addressed. The assumption often made is that if one just purchases a few computers and modems, a post-industrial society can magically result. Africans and those in the Asia-Pacific are generally in the position of consumers and thus in a position where they cannot yet define the media in their terms.

At the same time, conservative attitudes entrenched in Asia-Pacific countries and concern over basic needs inhibit appreciation of the importance of new ICTs. For example, in Fiji and the Philippines, people believe ICTs are not the most important needs in their societies and that people can always find a way to get along if ICT use becomes a matter of “life and death”.

Basic education, equipping schools with enough texts and reducing the teacher-student ratio, and seeing culturally relevant programs on television seem to be the major concerns of most of the respondents. There is also fear that the Internet could corrupt the morals of their society through easy access to pornography and other culturally “reprehensible” material.  The use of ICTs for interactive education, for pedagogy that leads to communication and information richness is not yet  adequately understood or developed.

ICTS AS APPROPRIATE

However, even with these words of caution, in Africa and Asia-Pacific, almost every interviewee considered ICTs as appropriate to their society for various reasons, even in the face of poverty. The reasons were as follows: for Africa,

·         ICTs were generally seen as the basic tool for survival in the next century;

·         ICTs were seen to enhance efficiency in the workplace;

·         there was a high belief in ICT ability to increase the ease and speed of social communication and at the same time obviate the problem of transportation;

·         ICTs help solve socio-economic problems;

·         among university academics, ICTs help them reach out to colleagues in other parts of the world and keep them up to date with developments in their disciplines;

·         there was the belief that ICTs help to monitor crime in society, and

·         there was the ultimate belief that ICT usage will make Africa to become part of the global trend.

As one respondent commented:

They help to do things better, they show a measure of development. And if we’re going to be plugged into the world, particularly in the next century, on the continent of Africa and…, we necessarily must be part and parcel of the information age. And information technology is an imperative that Africa would miss at its own risk.

In the Asia –Pacific countries studied, specific reasons for the use of ICTs included:

·         online technology enables local doctors to consult with their international colleagues and other doctors in the scattered island communities;

·         the most appropriate technologies were seen as the ones that enabled the communities and organisations to communicate more efficiently (example was given of e-mail);

·         ICTs promote distance education at all levels;

·         instantaneous availability of data through ICTs;

·         the future of education is heavily dependent on ICTs;

·         Internet access helps productivity, innovation and entrepreneurship to flourish;

·         ICTs are useful for job search by youths; and

·         ICTs are essential for the knowledge era.

As respondents said:

… we can’t deny that the next century would be a knowledge century and the world is developing towards becoming more and more knowledge-intensive, and IT will be the technology for development of four aspects of man’s activities: industry; manufacturing services; farming, agriculture and fisheries; and health services. (Phil/WP)

I’d say it’s appropriate. I’d like to be in touch with the world pretty much instantaneously… I think the Internet is the most appropriate new ICT to develop because it’s information as you require, when you require it. (Fiji/TP)

INHIBITING FACTORS

Against the background of the perceived appropriateness of ICTs to Africa and Asia-Pacific, the crucial research question was: why are these technologies, given their usefulness, not yet commonplace in all the countries we studied? Among the African respondents, a wide range of factors inhibit the widespread introduction and use of the new technologies. These factors include:

·         ignorance about the importance of and need for ICTs which makes even those rich enough to acquire them apathetic to ICTs;

·         general poverty which leads to the perception of computers, for example, as alien and luxury acquisitions;

·         poor maintenance and repair culture in which spare parts and technical ‘experts’ from the manufacturers are imported whenever the technologies break down; this leads to waste of resources, time and money;

·         poor infrastructural support base; examples include inefficient electricity and telephone systems;

·         lack of support from the government leading to underfunding of science and technology programmes in tertiary institutions;

·         illiteracy and lack of basic computing skills; these two points are closely related — in the African countries studied, tertiary institutions are funded by government and it follows that where government is apathetic to the need for ICTs, the educational institutions will not be provided with adequate funds to acquire and teach these technologies;

·         lack of a science and technology policy; this has consequences at two levels – lack of policy impedes the growth and development of a culture of science and technology, and also, at the educational level, downplays the significance of science and technology in the perception of students); and

·         the absence of democracy which feeds political unrest and the unwillingness of foreign investors to invest in the area of ICTs.

·         perception of the technologies (example, computer) as a status symbol or statement of one’s hierarchy in society.

Thus in Africa, ignorance is far more major obstacle and those aware, mostly the educated and literate people in the private sector, say as much as they appreciate the need and importance of ICTs, the economic situation in their countries and general poverty make it difficult for people who need these ICTs to acquire them. In Ghana, for example, the per capita income is US$400 and the average cost of a computer (plus modem and telephone line, etc) is US$1500. Also in Nigeria, to acquire a computer/modem, ISP subscription and telephone line would require the total annual income of a graduate. Compared to the Asia-Pacific countries studied, more people in Africa see the need for these ICTs inspite of traditional ways of doing things but are hampered by poverty.

What are the reasons for their lack of  diffusion in the Asia-Pacific? A range of factors were seen as inhibiting the use of new ICTs.

·         high cost of the ICTs leading to restriction of access to the new technologies;

·         conservative attitudes – people are comfortable maintaining the status quo, doing things the way they are used to;

·         lack of deregulation and government legislation which gives monopoly to a few information technology companies;

·         poverty and harsh economic climate;

·         infrastructural problems such as inadequate telephone lines and lines cutting off when someone is logged onto the Internet;

·         health and social welfare commitments undercutting attention to ICTs;

·         lack of basic education and computing skills;

·         political culture which discourages open sharing of information (Philippines)

On the whole, in all the countries and regions we studied, we found that ICT growth and development are being driven by the private sector – private businesses — with token support from the government. Many saw the future of ICTs as positive and believed that their use in health and education could be quite dramatic. Mind-boggling, with only our imagination as limits was the type of language used by participants.

Developing African and Asia-Pacific countries are caught in a Catch-22 situation: without using these new technologies, their future generations will further lag behind and will find themselves further impoverished. If they use these technologies without addressing some of the concerns and needs of their societies, they could be placing their carts before their horses. What is needed most is effective and efficient, not to mention wise, telecommunications and culture policy, as well as research that informs such policy.

The new communication technologies have their strengths and drawbacks, they should not merely be seen as apolitical tools but as embedded in culture, politics and our mutual futures.

IMPLEMENTATION RECOMMENDATIONS

Moving this research to the implementation phase, we recommend the following:

·         Implementation must be linked to local problems, specifically to poverty alleviation. This linkage must be direct, showing stakeholders the benefits of using ICTs for economic growth.

·         Implementation must also show how ICTs can transform education, making it far more interactive and empowering for students and professors/teachers. CD-ROMS and access to the web must not only be inexpensive, but as much as possible be locally driven, based on local content.

·         Implementation must help transform users of ICTs in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from consumers to producers of new knowledge and wealth. Dissemination of hardware must include software support, institutional linkages, and servicing. This must be done in the context of local cultural practices including those that inhibit ICT use (hierarchical  institutional practices).

·         Implementation must occur within a policy context guided by participatory action research, where all stakeholders in an iterative manner define their needs, goals and concerns.

IMPACT OF NEW INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES (ICTs) ON SOCIOECONOMIC AND EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF AFRICA AND THE ASIA-PACIFIC:

A PILOT STUDY

Levi Obijiofor and Sohail Inayatullah with Tony Stevenson

Preamble

This is a report of a UNESCO-sponsored study of four African countries and two Asia-Pacific countries. The countries in which this study was conducted are Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Uganda (Africa), Fiji and the Philippines (Asia-Pacific). The study was conducted over the period January 1998 and April 1999.

Aims

The study aimed to determine the:

·        specific ICT needs of Africa and Asia-Pacific regions;

·        current status of the emerging technologies and plans for their diffusion;

·        appropriateness of ICTs to cultural, regional and national contexts and their replicability across geography and culture; and

·        problems and opportunities associated with ICT diffusion in the two regions

·        perceptions of the likely futures of ICT diffusion.

Research Methodology

This study adopted an interpretive research strategy which allows a researcher to interact with a social group being studied as well as enable the researcher to observe and record the processes of decision‑making and social practices. According to Fetterman (1989), “the ethnographer conducts research in the native environment to see people and their behaviour given all the real‑world incentives and constraints… Understanding the world ‑‑ or some small fragment of it ‑‑ requires studying it in all its wonder and complexity” (pp. 41‑42). Patton (1990) vividly describes the situation thus: “The neutral investigator enters the research arena with no axe to grind, no theory to prove, and no predetermined results to support.  Rather, the investigator’s commitment is to understand the world as it is, to be true to complexities and multiple perspectives as they emerge, and to be balanced in reporting both confirming and disconfirming evidence” (p. 55).

The four African and two Asia-Pacific countries selected for the study were chosen purposively. Owing to funding problems, we could not conduct the study in as many Asia-Pacific countries as we did in Africa.

Despite its political problems, Nigeria is regarded as a major economic and military power not only in the West African sub-region but also in the whole of Africa. It is also regarded as the most populous country in Africa. It was thus chosen for inclusion in this study. Our question was:  To what extent have the ICTs impacted on the country’s sociopolitical and economic development?

Ghana is one of the emerging economic success stories in Africa and it was thus considered appropriate to investigate the status and impact of the new ICTs in such a country. Similarly, Uganda is regarded as one of Africa’s economic success stories under the leadership of President Yoweri Museveni and thus it was included in the investigation of new ICTs have impacted or are impacting Uganda’s economic development. Cote d’Ivoire — formerly known as Ivory Coast — is a major French-speaking country in the West African sub-region and was included as well. The Philippines was included because of its strong non-governmental organization culture, in the hope of better understanding of how ngos view ICT use and diffusion. Fiji was chosen, both for its multicultural mix, as well as for its housing of the University of South Pacific, the premiere university in the Pacific.

People interviewed in the African countries included Internet Service Providers (ISPs), communication and computer science academics in leading universities, computer and telecommunications equipment retailers, government policy makers in ministries and agencies, and editors of major newspapers. In Fiji, we also interviewed an official of Telecom Fiji Ltd., an information technology official of the University of the South Pacific, a manager of Fiji TV Ltd., a managing director of a technological company, five secondary school teachers, five postgraduate students and five business women. In the Philippines, we interviewed a former secretary of science and technology in the previous Philippines government, an official of the Philippine Greens, a program manager in a United Nations agency in Manila, president of one of the local universities, and an official of the national computer centre.  As a condition for agreeing to be interviewed, some of the respondents in all the countries requested anonymity either due to the sensitive positions they occupied in government offices or because they did not want to be identified. We have tried to protect the identities of the respondents by referring only to their country of origin and not by their real names whenever a comment is reproduced in the analysis section of this report. A total of 47 people were interviewed in the four African countries while 24 people were interviewed in Fiji and the Philippines.

Methods of data collection

The methods used in collecting data for this study consisted of semi‑structured personal interviews, focused group interviews, examination of historical documents and personal observation. The adoption of multiple methods or triangulation in social research has been endorsed by various researchers because they help to overcome flaws inherent in the use of one method.  For example, Patton (1990) argues that “Combinations of interviewing, observation, and document analysis are expected in much social science field work.”  He argues that studies which adopt only one method “are more vulnerable to errors linked to that particular method… than studies that use multiple methods in which different types of data provide cross‑data validity checks” (Patton, 1990: 187‑188).

Research questions

The major questions that underpinned this study were:

·        Do ICTs transform the debate on educational and development theories and practice? In other words, do they challenge or reinforce the old paradigms of development?

·        What are the ICT needs of Africa and Asia-Pacific countries?

·        What is the current status of the emerging technologies and plans for their diffusion in these regions?

·        How appropriate are ICTs to cultural, regional and national contexts and their replicability across geography and culture;

·        What sociocultural and economic factors enhance or inhibit the use and adoption of new ICTs? and

·        What are the problems and opportunities associated with ICT diffusion in Africa and the Asia-Pacific?

·        What are the futures of ICTs in Africa and the Asia-Pacific, and are there differences between preferred and likely futures of ICT development?

Literature: overview

This review examines current arguments and debates concerning the impact, real and imagined, of the new information and communication technologies in developing societies, in particular Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Given the rapid changes in the nature and structure of the ICTs as well as the claims and counter claims about the impact of ICTs on socioeconomic development, a review of this nature is important to help policy makers and organisations committed to the development of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region to separate fact from wishful thinking and to focus on the most useful and practical strategies and technologies. While there is evidence of the usefulness of ICTs in many developed societies, questions of their appropriateness in a range of situations remain. In other words, are the new ICTs appropriate for every developing society, in particular Asia-Pacific region and Africa? If they are, which strategies and which particular ICTs are more effective for educational purposes and for socioeconomic development?

The new information and communication technologies (ICTs) are widely perceived as major tools for kickstarting ailing economies and consequently assist developing societies `catch up’ with the developed world, including those groups that have lost out of the mainstream of development. To what extent do the new ICTs facilitate the education of the mass of people in Asia-Pacific region and Africa, and uplift the conditions of disadvantaged groups in these societies? Do ICTs allow them to empower themselves without having to lose their unique cultures, that is, without having to develop? Indeed, are the new technologies appropriate for the development of traditional societies? Do they (ICTs) fit the local indigenous cultures? In essence, will the new ICTs launch these societies and communities thereof on the path of socioeconomic development or will they subject them to further dependence? For example, it has often been argued that, without the successful adoption and implementation of the new ICTs in the developing world, future generations in these societies will further lag behind. However, research is yet to inform on the problems and opportunities of ICTs adoption. These questions are examined in this review essay.

The emergence of the new information and communication technologies (ICTs) — examples include the Internet, computers, interactive multimedia systems, and digital telecommunications — has dramatically altered theoretical and practical assumptions about the role of communication technologies in development. Today, the role of the ICTs in developed and developing societies has become the subject of academic focus and research, regional and international seminars and conferences. As the new millennium approaches and as we contend with the expanded uses of the information superhighway, the interface between communication and development calls for serious reconsideration. While advocates are hopeful that the new technologies would provide urgent solutions to present and future problems, pessimists disagree, pointing to the dangers and pitfalls of the new communication technologies, such as: (1)  the marketing of pornographic products on the Internet; (2) the damage to children in terms of creating a virtual world divorced from nature; (3)  the perpetration of organised crimes; (3) the likelihood that they may widen the existing gap between the `information rich’ and the `information poor’, and; (4) further cultural impoverishment by continuing the one-way communication between North and South.  More centrally is that ICTs create an information based economy and not a communicative society (Inayatullah and Leggett, 1999).

Background

Long before the emergence of the new information and communication technologies (ICTs), communication and development scholars had argued that there was a strong link between communication technologies — especially mass media technologies — and level of socioeconomic development in a country.  Hence, the mass media of radio, television, newspapers and magazines were regarded as the drivers of socioeconomic development. Leading this campaign were communication scholars such as Everett Rogers, Wilbur Schramm, Lucian Pye, and Daniel Lerner among others. According to their views, a certain number of mass media channels were required in every developing country that wished to be developed. This argument was based on the assumption that the mass media carried within them elements of modernity.  As early as 1958, Daniel Lerner had argued in his seminal book  — The Passing of Traditional Societies — “No modern society functions efficiently without a developed system of mass media” (p. 55). In a similar tone, Lucian Pye stated:

It was the pressure of communications which brought about the downfall of traditional societies. And in the future, it will be the creation of new channels of communication and the ready acceptance of new content of communications which will be decisive in determining the prospects of nation-building (Pye, 1963: 3)

As a reflection of the mood of the era, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) recommended, in 1961, a minimum mass media target for developing countries.  According to UNESCO, “Every country should aim to provide for every 100 of its inhabitants at least 10 copies of daily newspapers, five radio receivers, two cinema seats and two television receivers” (quoted in Yu, 1977: 177). A major assumption underlying this view is that mass media messages reach all segments of a society and that messages, once received, will impact on the greater population in the same way as was intended by the mass media.  However, research evidence has shown that there are factors which limit access to mass media in the rural communities. There are also social and cultural factors which mass media messages must overcome before such messages are accepted or rejected in traditional societies (see, as examples, Grunig, 1971; and Reddi, 1989).

Against this background, it was widely assumed that the mere presence of the mass media led to the transformation of societies and individuals. According to Shore (1980), what was needed in this perspective was to “change the attitudes, values and aspirations of the individuals in the population; from that would result the benefits of modernization with which such change was identified” (p. 20).

It did not take long, however, for communication scholars and world leaders to realise that the link between mass media presence and socioeconomic development could also often be negative, especially in developing societies. According to Lerner and Schramm:

Throughout the less developed regions, people have been led to want more than they can get. This can be attributed in part to the spread of the mass media, which inevitably show and tell people about the good things of life that are available elsewhere … As people in the poor countries were being shown and told about “goodies” available in developed countries, they were also being taught about their own inferiority — at least in terms of wealth and well-being. Recognition of the disparities between the rich and poor countries produced among some a sense of hopelessness, among others a sense of aggressiveness. Both apathy and aggression usually are counterproductive to genuine development efforts (Lerner and Schramm, 1976: 341-342).

Despite the weaknesses in the earlier theoretical assumptions, compelling arguments remained for assuming that new communication technologies hold the key to socioeconomic development of many societies. For instance, advocates of ICTs point to how the Western world experienced the impact of industrial technology and found it to be an indispensable tool of development. The belief then was that if industrial technology aided the socioeconomic growth and development of Western nations, it should also propel socioeconomic growth in developing nations. As Ashby et al (1980) explained: “Industry, especially capital goods industry, was viewed as the leading growth sector of the economy. Rural society in low-income countries was viewed as economically stagnant and culturally tradition bound” (p. 154).  As the rural individual was perceived to be traditional, it followed, according to the dominant Western perspective, that the first objective in any program of development will be to transform traditional societies to `modern’ ones. Against this background, a major question arises: do new ICTs hold the key to the transformation of developing societies? In other words, do they (ICTs) challenge or reinforce the old paradigms of development?

It is not everyone that is overly captivated by the magical effects of the new ICTs. Some have counselled caution over expectations from the new communication technologies. For instance, Kryish (1994) cautions that current predictions for the information superhighway are distinctively similar to predictions made about Cable television in the USA two and a half decades ago. In each era, Kryish argues, advocates depicted the technology as `revolutionary’, predicting that traditional methods of work, play, learning, and commerce would be transformed; that people would carry out their activities in the comfort of their homes, and that the new technologies would provide answers to all problems (Kryish, 1994). Kryish contends that as US Cable TV did not develop as expected, people should not rely too heavily on arguments which promote new technologies as autonomous, revolutionary and utopian.  New technologies exist in certain political and social frameworks, they are embedded, and thus the ways in which they change society are based on these cultural codes. New technologies might make it easier, for example, to work from home, however, this ignores the social function of work, of a place where individuals meet, make friends, find identity. Telecommuting, thus, while transport efficient, may continue the cultural impoverishment, the anomie, that individuals face in large cities (Inayatullah, 1998)

In an analysis of the technological adaptation process of the Maori of New Zealand, Schaniel (1988) explains that new technology may create change in society, and that the direction of change is determined by the nature and function (use) of that technology in the adopting culture (1988: 493-498).

Uses of the new technologies

Tehranian (1990) argues that the new technologies, like the old, should be viewed neither as technologies of freedom nor of tyranny, but basically as technologies of power that lock into existing or emerging technostructures of power. He believes that information technologies play a dual role in society. On one hand, they open up opportunities for centralisation of authority, control and communication typical of the modern industrial state, and on the other hand, they supply alternative channels of cultural resistance and ideological mobilization for opposition forces. The `Big Media’ (such as national press, broadcasting and mainframe computers) are identified with the centralising forces while the `Small Media’ (such as the alternative press, small scale audio visual production and transmission facilities and personal computer networking) provide the avenues for community resistance and mobilization. On this basis, one can argue that the new communication technologies serve the interests of both the privileged and the underprivileged classes in society.

In a related sense, Stevenson, Burkett and Myint (1993) argue that the new communication and information technologies can strengthen the centralised industrial, command economy or decentralise empowerment for finding creative solutions to local and global problems through new social technologies. Increasing globalisation, facilitated by the new technologies, has brought about changes which flow through to local communities. Paradoxically, however, these local communities are forced to make international connections in order to solve local problems.

Technologies and development

The link between technological growth and socioeconomic development is hinged on various arguments. McQuail (1987), for instance, contends that “One clear promise of the new technologies is an increase in communication of all kinds, between individuals and also between persons…” But this argument overlooks the fact that before increased communication can take place, the communicators must have access to the new technologies or must possess the werewithal to purchase the communication tools.

Some researchers have also indicated the need for the new ICTs to address problems of human needs. For instance, while highlighting the significance of telecommunications technology for “some new means of bringing people together”, Stevenson (1991) wonders if the new telecommunications technologies, monopolised by the privileged industrialized world, will be “enough to address the world’s most serious problems of poverty, hunger and alienation.” The implication is that new communication technologies which do not address immediate human needs are not quite useful to human society no matter how effective they may be in increasing communication among people.

Africa’s dilemma

In Africa and elsewhere, arguments as to whether the continent should acquire the new communication technologies have assumed robust dimension. The major issues centre around the question of priorities. Is it appropriate for African leaders to ignore the basic needs of their people and hop onto the bandwagon of the new communication technologies?  Will acquisition of new communication technologies transform African economies, lead to greater food production and improved quality of life, health and housing, overcome poverty and illiteracy, and end internecine civil strifes? Indeed, can Africa thus afford not to adopt new ICTs?

In a world in which the developed and developing countries pursue different goals and priorities based on the different levels of their technological endowments, the new communication technologies are bound to be viewed with both optimism and suspicion. Indeed, it was former president Julius Nyerere of Tanzania who painted a grim picture of the African scene when he reportedly said that while the industrialised world may be travelling to the moon with ease — as a result of their technological advancement — African leaders are still grappling with the problem of how to reach their people in the villages.

Taking the Internet and other emerging electronic networks as an example, Jegede (1995) doubts their ability to accelerate Africa’s development even as he recognizes the need for Africa to share information and ideas with the rest of the world.

If we had everyone in Africa electronically networked today, it would not necessarily develop Africa. In fact, what it would do, and appears to be doing at the moment, is divert attention from all other problems of development making people believe that getting hooked to the superhighway is the panacea for Africa’s problems (p. 221).

Jegede strengthens his case by citing some disturbing statistics about Africa. According to him:

Three quarters of Africa’s population is illiterate (so hooking them to the Internet is out of the question); three quarters of Africa is rural without basic facilities of electricity and telephone (so hooking up to the Internet can only be restricted to the urban areas); three quarters of universities in Africa have depleted library resources, have overworked academics and run computer science departments without computers … and there are currently 200 million personal computers world-wide but less than one percent of them are located in Africa… (Jegede, 1995: 221).

Although Jegede’s views may sound grim or irredeemable, they present an idea of the scale of problems facing Africa in the sphere of communication technologies alone.

Nonetheless, there are individuals who do not share Jegede’s pessimism.  Djamen et al (1995) have argued that “Electronic networking will not only enable Africans access global data but will also help the entire world to access information on Africa in Africa. Thus, the present situation in which Africans do not directly control their own data would be reversed” (pp.  228-233).

Beyond the question of data generation and security/protection, Odedra-Straub (1995) argues that electronic wiring of Africa and the subsequent easy access of Africans to various networks, including the Internet, would not “necessarily mean that the technology and easy access to information will automatically have a positive impact on the development process of Africa” (pp. 225-227). She points out that the adoption of the new technologies in Africa would not be simple and would require “skilled human and financial resources, … in addition to changes in the social, cultural, managerial, political and organisational `environments'” (p. 227).

Perspectives from Asia-Pacific region

With particular reference to the Philippines, de Ayala (1996) foresees changes to large and small scale business processes brought about by the new technologies. Not only will consumers be in closer contact with suppliers and producers, the new technologies will also eventually lead to better educated, more knowledgeable, more critical but less loyal customers. The downside of this development, in a developing economy such as the Philippines, is that the fledgling domestic national markets may be stifled by regional trading blocs and international markets which promote intense competition. On a similar note, Chin (1995) believes that the development of information technology infrastructure in the Philippines rests on the national plan (NITP 2000 program), the objective of which is to create a well-informed computer literate society capable of using information technology as an everyday tool to enhance work and living.

While outlining the enormous potential of the Internet to promote Pacific Islands products and tourism in a global market, Lomas (1995) states that very few people in the Pacific Islands have access to the Internet. Access, availability and efficient services are the telecommunications concerns for widely scattered islands of the Pacific region, some of them with rugged terrain.

Regulating the new communication technologies

Although many governments may be giving top priority to acquisition of the new technologies because they are perceived as pivotal to overall development, there is however a growing anxiety or unease among these governments to curtail the use of the technologies by groups engaging in unauthorised conduct or groups which challenge the authority of various regimes. “Many Asian governments share the dilemma of desiring to control the distribution of information whilst recognising… that national economic and technological development requires increasing access to broadband networks and the information they provide” (Lambert, 1996).  However, these same governments “feel profoundly threatened by the concept of a medium in which they cannot control access to information…”

The question of controlling access to the new technologies is not peculiar to Asia alone. An attempt in 1996 by the United States government to ban “indecent” materials on the Internet was rejected by a US federal judge who ruled that the Internet deserved protection from government legislation. The US government however indicated it would appeal the ruling. At issue here is the challenge posed to individual freedom to communicate as against the desire of various governments to control the moral content or `political correctness’ of what is communicated.

Questions of access

Whatever may be the advantages of the new technologies, the problem of access remains a major concern. Just as access to the mass media is limited in rural areas of developing countries, so too will access to the new technologies be limited to a few affluent people, due mainly to the high costs of the new communication technologies. Take for example a developed country such as Australia where the question of access to the new technologies has resurfaced following the emergence of digital video communication (DVC).  On this, Lennie (1993) observes that potential questions about its use as a new form of interactive television and associated home information services have arisen as a result of the anticipated high cost of DVC for domestic consumption and the increasing privatisation of such services. These imply that disadvantaged groups could have reduced access to information and other needed essential services. At stake here are questions concerning access to and uses of the new technologies, the ability or inability of average citizens to acquire them vis-a-vis the high cost of the new technologies, and their broader impact on socioeconomic development.

Apart from the question of access, fears also exist about the impact of the new technologies (especially satellite technology) on authentic local cultures and national sovereignty. This worry is based on the ground that the new communication technologies are not value-free because they come packaged with the value orientations of their manufacturers (see, for examples, Moran, 1994; Oliver, 1994).

Nature of work and living

Beyond these issues, uncertainty still surrounds the extent to which the new technologies are able to address problems of society. Goodloe (1991) adopts a positive attitude to the new technologies, believing, for instance, that a proliferation of computers will lead to efficient operation of government departments in developing countries and also assist in information democratisation as the new technologies become more accessible to a greater number of people. He however fears that the new communication technologies could lead to massive loss of jobs. Geyer (1992) echoes the same view, pointing out that, although computers have revolutionised the mode of education and training, health and medicine, transport, agriculture, sport, and entertainment, certain fundamental and worrying questions remain. For example, what would happen if fewer people produced more goods and services due to the impact of new communication technologies? Furthermore, if people work from the comfort of their homes (telecommuting) with the aid of the new technologies, how would this affect family and work relationships? (Geyer, 1992). Certainly, these questions touch on how the new communications technologies will affect the nature of work and living.

Gender and new technologies

While examining the role of gender in the new communication technologies, Lennie (1993) argues that, although research into communication and information technologies has largely ignored or marginalised gender issues, the active involvement of women in the design of the new technologies may lead to creative and empowering uses for emerging communication technologies. Inayatullah and Milojevic (1999) agree that even though the Net comes to us a language in which woman are generally silenced, women can develop new software that is more woman friendly, as well change the policy priorities of development, to help the Net move away from its toolcentric approach.  Also, Stevenson and Lennie (1995) analyzed emerging ‘Communicative Age’ designs in the context of competing pressures to continue the current technology-driven systems, and to replace nature entirely through new technologies. Among the strategies they developed for creating a `Communicative Age’ are the greater involvement of women in creating alternative designs for communication and information technology, relearning the art of conversation, and using action learning and foresight.

Superhighway and public expectations

One aspect of the new communication technologies which has raised and perhaps dampened expectations is the information superhighway. Nowhere is the desire to develop the highway more urgent than in Southeast Asia where many of the governments are now investing in high technology industries. These countries perceive broadband telecommunications and interactive multimedia as pivotal to the restructuring of their societies (Langdale, 1995). For countries with major export-oriented telecommunications equipment industries (examples include Japan, Taiwan and South Korea), Langdale states that the need for an innovative domestic telecommunications services industry cannot be overstated. The objective is to open up markets for their national equipment manufacturers. Langdale (1995) also believes that interactive multimedia is likely to provide a major global market for equipment manufacturers in the future.

A report by an expert group in Australia (Broadband Services Expert Group, 1994) states that multimedia and new communication technologies offer opportunities to expand access to cultural collections and events by creating new cultural products and services. According to the report, the new technologies will, over the years, benefit humankind, in museums and galleries, health centres, homes, offices, factories and classrooms. Japanese authors Esaki and Kaneko (1993) echo a similar view, predicting that, in the coming century, new technologies such as digital computers and digital TV will become common household communication tools, making multimedia interaction easy.

Mandeville (1995) reports that while the information superhighway consisting of new telecommunications infrastructure is gaining widespread usage among businesses and households in urban Australia, the rural areas are yet to be serviced by or introduced to the superhighway. The implication is that the regional and rural areas which produce a significant percentage of state GDP “could increasingly be left out of information age developments.” Of what use therefore is the information superhighway if it ignores the needs of the rural and regional people who generate about 40 per cent of the state’s gross domestic product? In a related study, Hearn et al (1995) observe that Australia’s telephone system which is moving away from the old analog based service to one that involves computer processing, software and databases, as well as digital switching and signalling, is raising a groundswell of concerns about issues relating to privacy and consumer protection from the misuse or unauthorised use of personal information made possible by the network’s capacity for information storage and retrieval.

Melody et al (1992) argue that technological improvements to the telecommunications network have opened up new opportunities for the provision of services that can make callers more informed and allow many services to be provided more efficiently. However, the new developments also raise questions about inappropriate use and misuse of personal information, privacy and censorship, consumer protection and competition. These questions are: Who owns the valuable information about the calling habits of individual customers? Who should get access to it? How should it be used? Should it be restricted? If so, how? (Melody et al, 1992). The authors believe that the resolution of these issues will help shape the future information society.

ICTs and national sovereignty, language and culture

In an analysis of international satellite television broadcasting, Sinclair (1995) notes that satellite distribution is purely an ‘international’ means by which signals are spilled across national and international borders. In this connection, he believes that the concerns raised by various countries about national sovereignty and the subsequent attempt to control reception are mooted by the fact that dishes and cable systems flourish beyond their control. In this new satellite business, language and culture have become powerful forces in making and breaking international markets. According to Sinclair, service providers in Asia have found that they have to take account of linguistic, religious and other cultural factors in establishing their markets.

On the subject of language, Lambert (1996) observes that “access to the Internet depends not only on ready access to terminals, efficient phone lines and telecoms infrastructure but also a working command of English, the language of cyberspace… Without this, negotiating one’s way through all the various interfaces on the Internet and accessing information is very difficult.” He noted how lack of familiarity with English, the major language of the Internet, has affected the extent to which the Japanese use the Internet compared to the massive use of the Internet in Singapore — “where English is an official language”.  Abidi (1991) has argued that by use of the dominant languages not only in the Internet but also in the mass media, indigenous languages are suppressed and hence local cultures and traditions are rendered subordinate to the cultural images that are depicted in powerful foreign media. In this context, the media audience in developing societies are turned into passive participants.  Of course, there is considerably more freedom in ICTs since the Net is decentralized, allowing individuals from all over the world to have a web site. However, having a web site should not been as a replacement for structural inequity in the world system.

The relevant question at this point is: do modern mass media promote multiculturalism or the predominance of one culture?  There is a wide range of views representing the concerns of the developing and the developed worlds. From the perspective of developing countries, what audiences receive from the mass media are merely what the western world, the network owners, want the people to get. For instance, Plange (1993) argues that television and video tend to be laden with foreign (western) values and that greater consumption of broadcast and taped (recorded) programming affect societal attitudes, family, and employment routines. Ogden (1993) however argues that in the Pacific Islands, assessing TV and video to help analyse social and cultural impacts of new technologies is very difficult in countries undergoing rapid change and subject to massive foreign influences. But Varan (1993) believes that television has widened the economic gap between the rich and the poor. For Stewart (1993), transnational consumerism is encouraged and strengthened as the media (TV) advertise mostly imported products. A similar view is held by Dunleavy, Hearn and Burkett (1994). They argue that the mass media are deeply interwoven with the consumer economy through the shaping of recreational tastes and activities and these in turn feed into patterns of consumption.

Fundamental change is thus needed, argue many theorists. Inayatullah and Milojevic (1999) have argued that we need to search for ways to transform  information to communication (going far beyond the interactivity of the web) creating not a knowledge economy but a communicative economy, where differences are explored (and sililoquy posing as connection with the other is exposed). This is a vision of a future where conversations help create a gaia of civilizations. Central to this challenge is rethinking “information”, moving it outside its limited rationalist discourse and entering other ways of knowing, primarily those of women and other cultures. This means not merely the traditional map of data-information-knowledge and wisdom but the inclusion of social transformation or a new world order and transcendence, the metacultural dimension of the spiritual. It is the latter which gives space and foundation to the creation of a new collective consciousness; a creation which the Net can possibly play a role in birthing.

Virtual reality and challenges of the new technologies

Modern communication technologies affect not only grand issues of civilisation, of meaning, as well as cultural values and consumption habits, but also specific arenas such as our sense of travel and tourism.  For example, virtual reality, facilitated by new communication technologies, promises to transform tourism, creating a virtual self in which “there is no longer any place” (Inayatullah, 1993). Indeed, it is virtuality that is one of the drivers of the Information Era.  In the age of information superhighway, it is now possible for people to visualise themselves in more than two locations simultaneously without physically being there. Thus, more and more people seem to be asking, “why travel, when reality and imagination are blurred anyway.” Inayatullah believes that globalisation through communication technologies and deterritorialisation will create the possibility wherein “we could all become perpetual immigrants, forever travelling and never fearing deportation.” These new technologies which promote virtual reality promise to dramatically change the structure, the nature and the futures of tourism. He wonders what life would be like when we travel without worrying about all sorts of official documents, visas, passports, innoculation certificates and so on. Already, new nations are being built on the web, even offering passports for their citizens. Beyond virtual reality, advances in genetic technologies may also create two global societies, a society of people who are genetically created and another society populated by people who are born through the natural, traditional methods. Both virtuality and genetics, as they create new forms of self, silence billions of people who live in traditional “real” and “natural” worlds. ICTs thus should be seen as among a host of new technologies which are dramatically changing how we self and other.

Cheong (1995) observes also that new communication technologies have made travel systems more efficient. Many hotels now have the World Wide Web sites in the Internet to advertise their products and services. Internet advertising grows exponentially as do the values of Internet stocks on world equity markets. There is however a downside to this new development because through virtual reality, people can now realistically tour the world, experience romance and danger all in the safety of their homes or virtual reality centre. Cheong however states that virtual reality is still undeveloped as it lacks the features of smell, touch and taste and warns: “the threat of virtual reality becoming a substitute for travel is not unfounded and should not be ignored.” The good side of virtual reality is that it helps to safeguard and protect local tourism ecology and landscape.  The negative side is that it safeguards us from the other, from other ways of knowing, since virtual worlds are being created by software designers from one particular culture, largely from the West. There is no two way flow of design.  Moreover, virtuality continues the fragmentation of the self, leading to a possible world where information and communication technologies do not help us connect  and relate to others, but create further distances, seeing the other as merely a net consumer (Sardar and Ravetz, 1996; Sardar, 1998).

ICTs role in training educators in Africa

Across American higher education, for example, the lure of the new information technologies remains as uncertain as it is unsettling (Inayatullah and Gidley, 2000, in press). While few doubt that they have the potential to enhance teaching and learning, there is no agreement on how the technologies should be used to boost academic productivity (Massy and Zemsky, 1997).  Indeed, generally, they are being used partly for new courseware – courses on the Net as well as the new Universities on the Net – but as well to reduce the financial bargaining power of faculty, in some ways eliminating the lecturer. There is a subtle but profound shift from pedagogy as face-to-face learning based often on information transfer but as well as the communication between professor and student to pedagogy qua distant learning. One possible future is that the professor becomes mentor with rote information based learning done through the Net. This scenario would free the professor to focus on communication and learning. Alternatively, boring lecture notes may lead to even more boring Net learning, with the Net used merely as cost-cutting. A third scenario would see a shift away from teaching to courseware development. In any case, information search and transfer abilities of the Net are dramatically changing the nature of the university, of education. They are also changing the political relationships between faculty and management.

However, the presence of ICTs in the developing world in education and business, though not as widespread, holds greater promise, considering policy decisions and investments by various governments (Birhanu). This is because these policy makers not only have tremendous faith in the emancipator capacity of ICTs, but also because they believe that unless they become part of the global high-tech information network and system the world will pass them by (Haque, 1991: 220).

The question as to whether ICTs can really help to train educators or promote education in developing economies does not have a ready answer. There are several perspectives in the literature.

Drivers for the appropriation of ICTs

Many developing countries are increasingly cognizant of the strong and mutual dependence between economic development and telecommunications infrastructure (Birhanu). In a developing country such as India, for example, even though 10% of the workers are employed in service and information-related jobs, they account for 42% of the country’s GNP, suggesting that ICTs are helping the country to progress towards becoming an information society, even if slowly (Haque, 1991: 220). Elsewhere, ICTs have been perceived as an employment creator, as in South Africa (Louw, 1996) so much so that people are being retrained and re-deployed in ICT-related jobs. Beyond the economic factors, there are several more that support the case of ICTs in development and education.

From an educational perspective, ICTs in the developing world often refer to satellite-based television, telephony, video cassette recorders, computer-based interactive technologies such as electronic messaging systems, teletext and videotext  (Haque,1991: 224). Additionally, telecommunications technologies have been identified as powerful tools for helping teachers with all the different aspects of their job: enhancing instruction, simplifying administrative tasks, fostering professional growth and in some cases, their own personal productivity (Abi-Raad, 1997: 207-208). Some teachers find that using various technologies allow them to teach in entirely different ways (Abi-Raad, 1997). In the information age which has led to a complex social and institutional structure in modern society, one has to be a global citizen to operate successfully. This requires an awareness of information, as well as access and management of it for the purposes of basic survival (Fairer-Wessels, 1997: 5-6).

Telecommunications technologies must become an enabler of change through innovative uses in education (Abi-Raad, 1997: 211). Owing to their nature, coupled with the non-threatening environment for mistakes, ICTs in themselves offer immense benefits to students because they motivate them to study what happened, to understand what went wrong and, through understanding, to fix it. Teachers then could leverage on this strength to educate or re-train themselves, in a continual manner, even as technology keeps changing or advancing.

Other advantages of adopting ICTs in the training of teachers include, as evidenced in other related projects by IDRC (the International Development Research Council), a sense of empowerment and a new culture of communication (Graham, 1997). ICTs help promote a culture that is inclusive of diversity and collaboration, drawing on individual creativity and distinct faculties, opening ‘new worlds to teachers who seek new ways to help students go beyond the classroom, their school, their community and their culture’ (Justice and Espinoza, SITE 96, 1996). In Africa, emerging electronic messaging and educational technologies also provide a greater number of people with instruction and also offer an opportunity for various types and levels of co-operation between various institutions (Dzidonu and Reddy, 1997).

De Voogd (1996) believes that ICTs make collaborative learning and sharing of power and control that allows learners to learn in accordance with their own cultural style (De Voogd, SITE 96, 1996). In teacher training in the West, ICTs’ application to open and distance learning seem to be an international trend (Haugen and Ask, in Willis and Isleib, SITE, 1996). Teacher trainers have a responsibility to investigate and be open-minded with respect to these new possibilities in the developing societies, to the extent that these may be transferable.

For Africa, the information revolution offers a dramatic opportunity to leapfrog into the future, breaking out of decades of stagnation or decline (Hegener; and Grebreysus). Hegener has highlighted, in particular, the role of e-mail through a feasibility study and the conclusion was that for African universities, e-mail was the mode of telecommunication of the future. In recent years, the speed and efficiency of communication and access to information via e-mail has significantly improved in certain countries like Ethiopia. Application of this technology in teacher training in Africa cannot be ruled out. It might well serve as a starting point. Most importantly though, as the literature suggests, the opportunity to adopt communication technologies must be seized by African educators and universities to avoid being marginalised.

Barriers to the appropriation of ICTs

Currently, the barriers to adoption of ICTs both in business and education are overwhelming. However, there is hope in that measures to overcome these have been identified as well, though a lot of them have to do with developing ‘cultures’ and tailoring tools to fit in with the needs of the same (Abi-Raad, 1997: 211-212; Birhanu), particularly in the developing world.

In a broader view of the developing world, an added barrier to the appropriation of ICTs in business or otherwise is the limited access to and use of the media, except for radio (Haque, 1991: 220). Most countries are poor and also suffer from extreme disparity in income distribution, with a variety of reasons for income inequality such as highly unequal ownership of and access to land, a social structure that has excluded people from employment or other means of production either due to their colour, caste, religion or ethnic background, worsened by the brain drain in an intra, inter-regional and international scale of their talented or skilled workforce (Haque, 1991).

Further to this is the naive faith of policy makers in the developing countries in the efficacy of media technologies. They do not take into account nor consider the ‘macro-level contextual dimensions’ of their societies. There are important differences between the conditions and configurations in which the technologies are developed in the West and the conditions in which these technologies are transplanted (Haque, 1991: 222).

For now, let us consider the problems in African industry. In the employment sector in Sub-Saharan Africa, full Internet capabilities have become available in Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique and six other countries. The Ntsika Enterprise Promotion Agency has begun negotiations with various parties that could provide ICT services, and policies are slowly beginning to emerge (Louw, 1996). The problems are many. In brief, delays are caused by a lack of funding. Other factors include governmental regulatory policies, expensive telecommunications services, expensive equipment for smaller business firms, little technical support and under-serviced rural areas (Louw, 1996). Others include the unavailability of experienced and talented software personnel, management personnel trained in modern business management, a small and parochial private sector, a small and weak middle class with very low purchasing power, the lack of appreciation of the power of information by the state, failure to treat information as a critical element in any major economic objective, uninformed resistance in government circles against investing in computers and peripherals (Gebreysus).

Peter Knight (1995) adds that in many countries in Africa inefficient monopoly state telecommunications companies are preventing further flow of information (quoted in Gebreyesus). Generally, telephone and fax are the principal communication facilities in organisations while telex and radio are available to private individuals and in international and non-governmental organisations. Home computers and e-mail facilities at home are not common in Africa.

Most of the barriers outlined above affect the role of ICTs in African education and the training of the educators. If distance education were be to be a starting point in training teachers in a highly disconnected Africa, the governance of higher education institutions and cost stand out as the biggest impediments. Additionally, there are impediments such as absence of dedicated technology champions to initiate the case of electronic distance education, resistance of faculty members to the implementation of new technologies for fear of job loss or job security and a non-existent or inadequate telecommunications infrastructure (Dzidonu and Reddy, 1997).

The choice of technology depends on the needs of students as well as the availability of resources. Any effort to transmit educational material through distance learning technologies should be realistic both technically and financially in terms of what volunteers will be able to support and deliver.

Globally, a fairly negative picture has emerged of student primary teachers’ use of ICT (Robertson, 1997: 170). In the developed countries, there are many teaching aids and the very diversity of telecommunications facilities is bewildering, thus inhibiting their appropriation (Abi-Raad, 1997: 208). In Africa, despite investments in Ghana and Egypt, users are afraid to do more than send e-mail (Owen Jr., 1995).

Furthermore, technology changes more rapidly than predicted, but people change more slowly (Owen, 1995).  From a cultural perspective, a major inhibitor of the adoption of new ICTs is the presence of legacy or traditional teaching approaches (Abi-Raad., 1997: 211). Also in public organisations as in educational institutions, adherence to procedures ahead of initiative and innovation, and delays in legislation and policy result in an abundance of opportunities for improvement, but a culture that makes promotion of ideas difficult (Abi-Raad, 1997). This culture needs to change. Information is not independent of the development process but dependent upon other factors in a larger political and economic context of society. One needs to examine what prior limitations exist and what preconditions are necessary for information to make a difference (Shore, 1980:  45) in the making of an ICT change conducive to culture.

Even as the above factors translate to the African educational scenario, dwindling resources which result in inability to stock libraries, laboratories, fund research, pay overworked staff who are unable to keep up with developments in their fields (Gebreysus, 1997) add to the ‘lack of motivation to adapt’ syndrome among teachers. A very real statement which teacher trainers often hear is, “Why should I learn how to use this technology when I don’t have the technology in my classroom, school, district, country? “(Suares, 1996).

As identified earlier, the bottomline is that African educators, ICT providers and national policy makers need to see common ground before embarking on training programmes. The literature pre-empts the need to identify a compatible culture or mindset among these people to make headway.

Significant arguments

Here two major factors can be identified: (a) The haves versus the have nots; and (b) traditional versus technological approaches to education.

The literature suggests the coexistence of both factions or forces. There is an interplay between the two, in both cases, with no one faction or force dominating the other. It may be that ICTs could help industry or educators gain from such tension by offering a facilitatory/interventionist approach in the management of continual change.

The “have vs. have nots” issue carries itself across the boundaries of the developing nations’ issues to the African educational scenario. For now, let us consider this as a position relevant to the developing world. Here, the illiterate segment, mainly contained within the agrarian and industrial spheres, represent the information illiterate, poor and “have nots”. They are pitted against the “information rich/haves” segment (Fairer-Wessels, 1997: 2).

Other representations of the same are the free market forces versus centralised planning, increasing number of university graduates versus increasing number of illiterates (Haque, 1991: 227). Most economically developed nations have not only achieved universal diffusion of radio and televisual media with most homes owning multiple sets, they are also adopting the other new communication technologies at an accelerated pace. Most developing or underdeveloped countries on the other hand, are struggling with the problem of how to provide the basic telecommunications services to their citizens (Haque, 1991). On this, we recall the words of Julius Nyerere on the problems African leaders are facing just to reach their people in the villages.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, it is common knowledge that by every measure, the situation is worsening. Education is no exception. The net result is an ever widening knowledge gap between the developed countries and Sub-Saharan Africa (Gebreyesus, 1997: 1).

To further carry the case, in the realms of educational methods, Abi-Raad (1997: 213) states that a tension exists between traditional and technology-based education. Although ICTs play an important role in these interactions, traditional communications continue to play an important complementary role (Graham, 1997).

An inference could be that ICTs might take on a complementary and yet interventionist role in the management of rapid change in educational institutions. It may thus both be defined by a continually changing ‘culture’ or mindset of educators and train the teacher through eventual appropriation. This raises the question of culture examined in the following subsection.

Implications for development policy and implementation issues

There appears to be a trend requiring every teacher to know how to use the Internet. The real problem of the impact of Internet on education is elsewhere — giving students increasingly powerful tools is going to have an increasingly large impact on the very content of curricula (Abi-Raad, 1997: 207). The assumption that the only tools teachers have to solve problems are a pencil and a paper is going to change or will have  to (Abi-Raad, 1997). It is a mindshift that is being pre-empted.

Other changes required to ease the adoption of ICTs in education would be the curricula’s ability to exploit the dynamic and visual character of multimedia, classes where students can learn at different rates, schools that are more virtual places than physical buildings and a governance system that regulates new providers of distance learning services while at the same time permitting them to compete or combine with more traditional public schools.

Ideally, courseware could be designed that included many levels of interaction (Inayatullah and Wildman, 1998). Students could have access to the editor of the cdrom or the net course, as well as to authors whose works are selected, as well as to fellow students through an internet listserve. Finally, they could have direct access to the professor teaching the course. New media thus allow numerous levels of interaction. Of course, this would require the technology to use CD-ROMs and the internet, as well as editors and authors who were willing to engage with students, instead of believing that pedagogy was finished once their textbook was published.

In Africa, it might be advantageous to have a joint technical group that will assess the existing situation pertaining to telecommunications, assess forthcoming alternative technologies, architect telecommunications infrastructure, formulate standards and conduct a cost-benefit analysis to promote and show the viability of the architecture (Birhanu). Some other important criteria to abide by are access, costs, kinds of learning/instructional approaches that would best meet the learners’ needs and background, appropriate technology, sustainability of such projects, transference of skills thus imparted from one trainer to another (Gebreyesus, 1997: 2). If proper architecture, technology and policy are devised and adopted, African nations and educators can make a beginning with better training of teachers through ICTs that fit their culture or mindsets.

The Internet is an alternative; its viability ought to be checked in Africa in both business and education. Whereas previous infrastructures for information sharing stressed conduits between Africa and other continents, Internet access can enhance intra-regional collaboration among African organisations.

Evaluation frameworks

Literature suggests that projects may have several years to produce concrete results or influence policies, and it is only through evaluation that information can be obtained on the impacts (Graham, 1997). Here, a case seems to be established in favour of setting up evaluative frameworks for the impact of ICTs in teacher education. It is held that such evaluation would help to set up periodic retraining of teachers, as well, considering growing demands for employees with diverse and continually evolving skills, unlike the industrial era when the skills needed for jobs were relatively fixed (Toffler, 1990, in Dzidonu and Reddy, 1997).

Graham adds that evaluations should be part of project design and should be conducted both to allow for on-going feedback and mid-course corrections during the life of the project and to allow for information gathering at a later date (Graham, 1997). It takes concerted effort to learn about impact.

Critiques of evaluations framed for information technology-related change in education state that the issue is a complex and challenging task (McDougall and Squires, 1997: 115). Evaluation in this area is difficult. Many traditional evaluation models are simplistic and inadequate, even misleading or even failing to capture the richness of the problems associated with the introduction, integration and institutionalisation of IT in any platform of education.

McDougall and Squires suggest an alternative model — the perspectives interaction paradigm (McDougall and Squires: 118) for evaluation of information technology in education, which has already been successfully used in formal teacher education courses (McDougall and Squires, 1997). They have argued for a wider application of the paradigm in an IT teacher professional development context.

A limitation though is that an application of the paradigm has shown that analysis of IT teacher professional development programmes must be school-focused. However, one might consider this as a starting point for further research, in the context of issues discussed by the paper.

Alternatively, VOLN (Victoria Open Learning Network), Australia, suggests evaluation of a project by measuring it against pre-determined performance indicators, which could include the following:

·    the increase in the number of learners, or the level of their satisfaction

·    the increase in the number of satisfied employers, or the level of their satisfaction

·    the decrease in cost of training provided

·    a measurable improvement in access to the particular type of training

·    increased levels of staff skills

·    increased enrolment levels, measured by surveys or statistical measures

·    statistics indicating that different types of clients are enrolling, and

·        increased number of staff who wished to be seconded to the area (From Chalkface to Interface)

A number of the above factors are transferable to the focus of evaluating ICTs efficacy in training educators. With respect to the African scenario, it seems from the literature that similar studies have not been undertaken till date.

Future research questions

Very little research has been written on how the use of the Internet in the classroom has affected the role/perceptions of the classroom teacher (Abi-Raad, 1997: 206). This could be a beginning to assess how close an attempt to evaluate the impact of ICTs in educating teachers is to the cutting edge of research issues in the field. Additionally, some other major questions that may be considered for investigation are:

·        How are teachers dealing with the influx of telecommunications technologies in educational institutions?

·        How and why do teachers use these technologies?

·        In what ways, if any, can technology help teachers perform their multi-faceted tasks?

Graham cautions that evaluations should look at the role and effectiveness of ICTs but should not be founded on evaluating the impact of projects on development (1997).

Most importantly, Abi-Raad confirms that practically all research about educational technology has focused on the impact of these on students; little attention has been given to its impact on teachers (1997, p. 206). This validates the relevance of this particular project.

Research findings

The interview questions were designed to elicit specific responses with regard to the status of ICTs, the usefulness of ICTs, level of awareness and level of usage of ICTs, and the obstacles to the introduction and wider usage of ICTs, among others. With regard to the status of the ICTs in Africa (whether they are in existence or not), there was a general opinion that the ICTs are in existence and that a majority of the people are aware, although access remains a problem. The following quotations exemplify this view.

There is awareness but, you know, awareness is just a part of the game. If you are aware of something and you don’t have access to it, it’s a problem. (Nig/NO)

I think they exist here and it’s like it’s exploding. People are using them, stores are computerising… There are business centres all over the place doing typesetting, typing letters. (Gha/AK)

I think all the basic facilities in the new communications technologies have been introduced in the country in the last decade. Faxes exist, electronic mailing systems and operations, the Internet is in town, several offices, private companies, government agencies, non-governmental organisations, private individuals and groups are using computers and computer-based technologies. (Gha/KK)

There are a few installations, obviously not as much as you would find in the developed world. People are getting to it, to know them. I think, with time, they will be largely acceptable in the society. (CIv/FD)

In Fiji and the Philippines however, opinions were divided about the status of the new ICTs. While some respondents stated that ICTs have advanced in their country, others said the ICTs are available but only to a minor segment of the population who can afford computers, who are educated enough to use computers or those who are computer literate. The following views illustrate these points.

Internet I think like anywhere in the Pacific is only available to those who can afford a computer and who know how to use them, which is a minority. (Fiji/CM)

ICTs are relatively well advanced in Fiji… But if you measure that against the Pacific rim countries, we’re well advanced but we’re obviously not up to the standards that you have say in Australia and New Zealand. (Fiji/MB)

I see them as very limited, quite ancient in terms of, for example, the level of Internet service access we have in Fiji. We are limited to only one ISP who offers a very poor service in terms of reliability and speed, at a very high cost. (Fiji/AC)

At the moment we are very very close to whatever is available in markets overseas… I’ve just been to Australia and New Zealand and some of our technologies are more advanced than theirs. I’m referring to some of the universities there. (Fiji/KF)

Similar sentiments were expressed by interviewees in the Philippines.

The development of ICT is very uneven. It is moving and expanding more rapidly in the private sector… Government seems to be lagging behind. (Phil/PV)

Usage is at a low level with private sector dominating the use of ICT… Usage is very low and that means two things: that market growth has great potential or that we will remain economically handicapped in terms of computers. (Phil/WP)

We are relatively advanced compared to Singapore and Malaysia since we have Internet Service Providers (ISPs)… ICT should be introduced outside the academe and private sector. (Phil/NN)

A few issues arise from these views. In both Fiji and the Philippines: ICT growth is being driven by the private sector; outside the private sector, only a few people, those with the relevant education and money are able to buy and use the technologies.

These findings are not too different from the situation in Africa. For example, although a majority of people in Africa are aware of ICTs, there was a marked difference between the level of awareness and the level of usage. Thus, while there was evidence of awareness and presence of the ICTs in the African countries we visited, there was also evidence of low usage of the new technologies. In other words, while we found the level of awareness about ICTs to be high (many people knew about the new technologies), there was a corresponding (albeit disturbing) low level of usage of ICTs even in universities. A majority of people who said they were aware also reported that they were not in a position to use such technologies. Hence, access to the technologies was identified as one of the problems. Some may not even have seen these technologies for the first time.

In terms of awareness, generally, I would say people are aware… if you mention anything about computing or IT, people know what it is about. But if you talk in terms of being literate, apart from the awareness,… I would say the literacy level is, maybe, let’s say 50-50… Then if you move to the level of usage, that is, what is the percentage of those who are literate who now use the technology, …that seems to be where the problem is currently. The level of usage is very low, still very low… this has to do with the fact that the technology itself is alien and we’re really consumers of the technology… (Nig/CU)

I can say that the status of information technology is barely existent. The need for it is there but the awareness isn’t quite widespread enough. There are still a lot of people who are ignorant of it. There are still a lot of people who are unwilling to try it out. And there are still a lot of people who do not have the resources even when they need to try it out. (Nig/EI)

Although a majority of respondents in all African countries stated that the technologies were in existence and that people were aware, there were other views which deviated from the general trend. These stated that the people are still not aware of the technologies.

I think in terms of awareness, it’s still very poor and you can extend that also to usage and application. It’s very poor. For a population of 100 million and with more than three dozen universities, you’ll be amazed the total email subscription in Nigeria. It’s very very appalling. At some point last year, it was only a hundred. That’s a clear reflection of how poor it is. (Nig/CU)

We’re still in the dark ages; still far, far behind. Still much to be done… As at now, people have them in their homes or in their offices but in institutions where we should have them, we don’t have them. Nobody knows even how to use them; the students don’t know how to use them. That’s basically because they don’t have them. (Nig/FN)

They are in existence but they’re not technologies that are used at their optimal level. They are used for low level things: word processing, Excel, simple, simple things. (Gha/SB)

Ghana, I think, has a dichotomy as far as these technologies are concerned. At one level…, a large number of organisations are at the cutting edge of technology. At the same time, you see a lot of organisations at the rudimentary level. So, it’s very difficult to say whether Ghana is moving forward or not. (Gha/SK)

Given the level of awareness about these technologies vis-à-vis the level of poverty in all the countries that we visited, we tried to find out whether the respondents considered the use of these technologies as appropriate to their environment. There was a clear unanimity of opinion on this issue. In Africa and Asia-Pacific, almost every interviewee considered ICTs as appropriate to their society for various reasons, even in the face of poverty. The reasons were as follows: for Africa,

·        ICTs were generally seen as the basic tool for survival in the next century;

·        ICTs were seen to enhance efficiency in the workplace;

·        there was a high belief in ICT ability to increase the ease and speed of social communication and at the same time obviate the problem of transportation;

·        ICTs help solve socio-economic problems;

·        among university academics, ICTs help them reach out to colleagues in other parts of the world and keep them up to date with developments in their disciplines;

·        there was the belief that ICTs help to monitor crime in society, and

·        there was the ultimate belief that ICT usage will make Africa to become part of the global trend.

They help to do things better, they show a measure of development. And if we’re going to be plugged into the world, particularly in the next century, on the continent of Africa and…, we necessarily must be part and parcel of the information age. And information technology is an imperative that Africa would miss at its own risk. (Nig/EI)

Well, there is only one world and we don’t have different worlds… So, we cannot stay in one corner of the globe and isolate ourselves from what is happening elsewhere… Apart from that, we also need this technology. (Gha/TM)

We cannot because, a majority of the people are poor,… forget to join the global trend. It is, in fact, to our detriment that we ignore this very important tool of modern living. There is no way we are going to remove ourselves from the global community because we are part and parcel of this world… development has gotten to a stage where info tech is the basic tool for survival in the coming century. (Nig/BO)

I believe business… needs more of these technologies because… transportation is a problem. People waste a lot of time just trying to get from one point to the other…if we are to put these technologies into place, business could move faster, people can do business much easier and make more money. (Gha/WACSI)

I think it is a relevant technology for us even in the midst of the poverty that we are in. Don’t forget that increasingly the world is like a global village today and people are evolving the best ways of doing things… (Nig/NO)

I think, as technologies that facilitate communication of all sorts, they are appropriate… in terms of social communications, it is extremely useful. So, my mother doesn’t have to come here any time to talk to me. She walks to a phone about a kilometre away and talks to me. So, I think that in that sense, it is useful… because they facilitate all kinds of social interaction and economic activity.  In terms of education, it is useful but it is only a potential as at now. (Gha/KK)

Primarily, I’m looking at it from the point of scholarship. It is very important. You need to be current to know what is happening in the field… to be current so you don’t duplicate studies; so you can also improve upon what has been done already. And that is one way to keep current. We need to reach out. (Nig/YE)

Networking is also a very key area for us because…it’s important for us to be able to network. I think we… find that the information technology helps us to report better because then we are able to survey our environment better if we have a good network, and know, for instance, if there is an instance of child abuse in the north and I can pick it up on my system, then it helps me to open my eyes and see if it actually exists around this part as well. So, it helps us to monitor society better. (CIv/GA)

However, not every respondent considered the use of ICTs as appropriate to Africa, in view of the problem of illiteracy. According to one respondent, ICTs are

… not too appropriate because you’re talking of high percentage of the population being illiterate. Some have not even seen, there are university students who have not even seen what a computer is like. (Gha/PR)

This point bears some resemblance to the core arguments of Jegede (1995) cited earlier in this report. According to Jegede:

Three quarters of Africa’s population is illiterate (so hooking them to the Internet is out of the question); three quarters of Africa is rural without basic facilities of electricity and telephone (so hooking up to the Internet can only be restricted to the urban areas); three quarters of universities in Africa have depleted library resources, have overworked academics and run computer science departments without computers … and there are currently 200 million personal computers world-wide but less than one percent of them are located in Africa… (p. 221).

In the Asia-Pacific countries studied, there was an unequivocal response about the appropriateness of the ICTs. The prominent issues highlighted include:

·        online technology enables local doctors to consult with their international colleagues and other doctors in the scattered island communities;

·        the most appropriate technologies were seen as the ones that enabled the communities and organisations to communicate more efficiently (example was given of e-mail);

·        ICTs promote distance education at all levels;

·        instantaneous availability of data through ICTs;

·        the future of education is heavily dependent on ICTs;

·        Internet access helps productivity, innovation and entrepreneurship to flourish;

·        ICTs are useful for job search by youths; and

·        ICTs are essential for the knowledge era.

… we can’t deny that the next century would be a knowledge century and the world is developing towards becoming more and more knowledge-intensive, and IT will be the technology for development of four aspects of man’s activities: industry; manufacturing services; farming, agriculture and fisheries; and health services. (Phil/WP)

I’d say it’s appropriate. I’d like to be in touch with the world pretty much instantaneously… I think the Internet is the most appropriate new ICT to develop because it’s information as you require, when you require it. (Fij/TP)

If ICT means having national information network, it is very appropriate considering we are an archipelagic nation with seven thousand-plus islands… (Phil/PV)

The technologies that we are using are appropriate because we’ve got scattered islands and some steeper areas and the cost of cabling these areas relative to the consumer basis … is not warranted.(Fij/MB)

… development of our Internet capacity and usage is the only way countries in this region will become more developed. I believe the infrastructure for Internet access is the number one priority for a country like Fiji. (Fij/AC)

I think information technology now is probably the backbone for any business, education and so on… The most appropriate in terms of communication are the ones that allow the community and organisations to communicate more efficiently – for example, e-mail. (Fij/KF)

Although ICTs were generally seen as appropriate in the different sociocultural contexts, there were views which argued that ICTs were not appropriate and that focus should be on meeting the basic needs of their society. Here are some of these views which were prevalent in the Philippines:

We are being razzle-dazzled with the technology. We need to balance that with other dimensions including the human element of technology… We should have a solid foot on the ground and know what is important. (Phil/RIS).

ICT has a secondary role. It has some use but our priorities should be in meeting the basic needs of our people…  ICT is a toy for the rich. We make it appear as if we are (being) left behind and we are poor if we do not have ICT. (Phil/RV)

Against the background of the perceived appropriateness of ICTs to Africa and Asia-Pacific, an impulsive question would be: why are these technologies, given their usefulness, not yet commonplace in all the countries we studied. Among the African respondents, a wide range of factors inhibit the widespread introduction and use of the new technologies. These factors include:

·        ignorance about the importance of and need for ICTs which makes even those rich enough to acquire them apathetic to ICTs;

·        general poverty which leads to the perception of computers, for example, as alien and luxury acquisitions;

·        poor maintenance and repair culture in which spare parts and technical ‘experts’ from the manufacturers are imported whenever the technologies break down; this leads to waste of resources, time and money;

·        poor infrastructural support base; examples include inefficient electricity and telephone systems;

·        lack of support from the government leading to underfunding of science and technology programmes in tertiary institutions;

·        illiteracy and lack of basic computing skills; these two points are closely related — in the African countries studied, tertiary institutions are funded by government and it follows that where government is apathetic to the need for ICTs, the educational institutions will not be provided with adequate funds to acquire and teach these technologies;

·        lack of a science and technology policy; this has consequences at two levels – lack of policy impedes the growth and development of a culture of science and technology, and also, at the educational level, downplays the significance of science and technology in the perception of students); and

·        the absence of democracy which feeds political unrest and the unwillingness of foreign investors to invest in the area of ICTs.

·        perception of the technologies (example, computer) as a status symbol or statement of one’s hierarchy in society.

IGNORANCE:

Ignorance is the first and foremost obstacle. Ignorance about the importance of these. Ignorance about the need for these. When people fail to see the need, they are unlikely to do anything to get it. (Nig/EI)

I think the problem is, most people… have a magical view of the computer. They think the computer solves the problem… Basically, people are not knowledgeable enough about what a computer is supposed to do. (Gha/PA)

COST AND AFFORDABILITY:

This society still does not look at IT as being useful where you would take, say, a vehicle or say a piece of calculator. Things which are commonplace… So, people still see IT tools as luxury tools and we need to really break that barrier. (Nig/CU)

… you’ll find that computers are still a luxury. It’s a question of scale of preference: if you have to feed and if you have to think of having a PC, I am sure you will have to feed first, because if you don’t feed, you’re not going to stay. (Nig/NO)

The main obstacle is the level of wealth in the country… Most computers are more expensive than the annual income of the average person. Ghana has a per capita income of about $400 a year; an average computer costs around $1,500. (Gha/DO)

For anybody in this country to be able to put a computer together, the telephone, modem and what it is, you’ll be looking at perhaps the annual income, total annual income of a graduate. And that’s a lot,… It’s cash and carry. (Nig/FA)

LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURAL SUPPORT:

The first barrier is the inadequate supply of power, the electricity, it fluctuates, it’s very epileptic… (Nig/RA)

You want to look at simple telecommunications lines or links. They are not there. Where they are, my area for example, since Monday (interview taking place on a Thursday) our telephone system has gone down. No calls are coming in. (Gha/PR)

You want to look at electricity which is not too reliable. In the country now, we have the problem of having to ration. Sometimes you’ll be on your PC and the lights just go off or fluctuating. It could even affect your PC. (Uga/JO)

MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR:

Again, part of the problem of Third World countries especially Nigeria in the use of gadgets is maintenance, servicing, keeping them in working order… whilst we’re pursuing government policy, pursuing privatisation, pursuing accelerated education in computer appreciation, we should also look at maintenance of equipment and revive our trade schools… (Nig/BO)

The other difficulty we have is this constant procurement option. At the moment, we know we cannot manufacture all these information tech in Nigeria. And …what we do is to procure outright purchase of these info tech — and when they do breakdown, you have to wait until when you import the spare parts from the manufacturer or in some cases you actually bring the manufacturers here to come and do it for you. It takes time, it wastes human resources and it is expensive. (Nig/RA)

LACK OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY:

For me, … all the questions we are raising arise precisely because, at least in Ghana, our govt does not have a clear, doesn’t even have a policy of industrialisation, a policy on science and technology. (Gha/AK)

There is no policy on IT education at the different levels. By now there should be policies, at least curriculum, at the various levels of education — kindergarten, nursery, primary, secondary and tertiary… you don’t teach IT or computing as a subject, the way you teach mathematics or English language or any other…  And yet these are supposed to be the basic levels of building up people who are going to become practitioners in the profession. (Nig/CU)

LACK OF DEMOCRACY:

The second predicament is incessant problem of political unrest in this country. The country is politically unstable at the moment. And investors may not want to come and invest when they are not so sure of the stability of the country. (Nig/RA)

LACK OF GOVERNMENT SUPPORT:

Then, a major factor has to do with the fact that government itself is actually not doing what is required. IT is not being adequately promoted. It might interest you to note that, as at now, we do not actually have a national policy on IT in Nigeria… (Nig/CU)

LACK OF SUPPORT FOR UNIVERSITIES:

… the universities and educational environment are grossly underfunded. In fact, this is where I believe that interest in IT can actually start developing IT, the users, evolve the IT environment, develop the IT culture. It’s a culture of its own. (Nig/VA)

HIERARCHY/MYTH OF THE COMPUTER:

… in terms of technological application, there are cases where people like me, in an executive position like this, limit the use of these facilities by junior staff and others because like every technology has a myth around it. You could still see in some offices, even in this university, where it is in the director’s office and it’s covered, that sort of thing. (Nig/CU)

In the Asia-Pacific countries studied, a range of factors were seen as inhibiting the use of new ICTs. These factors include:

·        high cost of the ICTs leading to restriction of access to the new technologies;

·        conservative attitudes – people are comfortable maintaining the status quo, doing things the way they are used to;

·        lack of deregulation and government legislation which gives monopoly to a few information technology companies;

·        poverty and harsh economic climate;

·        infrastructural problems such as inadequate telephone lines and lines cutting off when someone is logged onto the Internet;

·        health and social welfare commitments undercutting attention to ICTs;

·        lack of basic education and computing skills;

·        political culture which discourages open sharing of information (Philippines)

…people here need social contact, they can’t just be locked up in a room communicating on the Internet. It’s not their style or their culture. (Fij/FG)

Most communication between businesses is done by phone or fax. People in Fiji are obsessed with faxes. They want everything in writing so it can be filed. (Fij/FG)

… the mentality is still very much about having things recorded on paper… Mentality is part of it. Expense is the other part…people feel more secure sending messages by traditional means because with the non-computer mentality, you’re not sure whether people check their email regularly. (Fij/FG)

The barrier is still the cost of putting up the physical infrastructure. Second is the lack of a predictable legal framework for dealing with ICT. We have no laws on electronic commerce. (Phil/WP)

Lack of training and education is one barrier. The people should be further educated about ICT. The political culture of the Philippines is such that it discourages the open sharing of information. (Phil/PV)

Respondents were also asked to suggest ways in which ICTs could be widely promoted and used in their society. In other words, how can a science and technology culture be entrenched in their countries? In Africa and Asia-Pacific, almost all respondents pointed to early education and familiarisation with computers as the fundamental step toward popularisation of ICTs in the society. Tin Africa, there were diverse views and opinions, ranging from suggestions such as the establishment of computer clubs in primary schools, to early exposure of the population to computers through the establishment of computer centres in local government headquarters (to replace the present television viewing centres), and incorporation of computer courses in school curriculum at an early age.

EARLY EXPOSURE TO COMPUTERS:

We should have a curriculum in school that makes it compulsory that every primary, secondary and tertiary institution offer some basic course in computer appreciation. These are the things we should be thinking of now… (Nig/BO)

One area would be to make them readily available to educational institutions, so that the young students who are coming up can be exposed to them at their school… So, if there can be a strategy put in place to make computers part of the educational process, to make it available to the students, that would go a long way in exposing the population and enhancing the utilisation of computers. (Civ/AG)

We go to schools — primary, secondary and tertiary — organise clubs for a start. We can call them computer clubs in which we teach people the fundamentals of computer appreciation, even how to use a telephone properly because… many people don’t know how to use them. (Uga/AS)

We need to go to secondary schools, institutions, set up a computer club or Internet club. Before they come out of science school or into the university or into the world, about 70 per cent of them could have gotten knowledge of some of these things. (Gha/PR)

Maybe we should just start basically from the educational sector. Primary schools, junior secondary schools, tertiary schools, there should be massive investment in that area. And once investment is made in that area, then it will catch up. (CIv/HD)

GRASSROOTS PROGRAM ON COMPUTER APPRECIATION:

If you have a computer, a PC or whatever, in the headquarters of a local government and the local people can use it, they will even, if you tax them and say pay levy for this. They will pay. The utility value becomes evident and they will support it and they will popularise it. Let the local governments start installing one instead of public TV viewing centres where they just sit down and are shown crap. (Nig/BO)

NEED FOR POLICY:

I think there must be national policy, there must be that national goal or desire that we have to get there because if these policies are not in place, well,… (Gha/PR)

Everybody needs to be educated about IT. So we need policies geared towards people acquiring basic IT knowledge at every level… Then there is also need to tackle the issue of acquisition of the technology itself. Currently, we are just users. (Gha/AK)

In Fiji and the Philippines, there were similar recommendations. Government should subsidise the cost of these technologies (such as computers) so educational institutions can afford to buy them; deregulation or opening up of the information technology market; provision of computers to schools by governments and non-governmental organisations (NGOs); workshops and training course on computer literacy organised by NGOs; media campaign to promote ICT use in all facets of life; broader awareness of world events through introduction of major world newspapers, TV news programmes; and greater private sector initiatives to promote and popularise ICTs.

To what extent are governments committed to the introduction and widespread use of ICTs? Responses vary and this could be attributed to the system of government in each country. Nevertheless, respondents in African and Asia-Pacific countries were of the view that the use of ICTs is more of a private-sector led initiative rather than government-backed activity. During the Sanni Abacha-led military dictatorship in Nigeria when this research was conducted, respondents stated the government was apathetic to promoting ICTs at all levels of society. Using the Internet as an example, some respondents attributed government’s unwillingness to promote ICTs to a fear that radical/dissident groups within and outside the country could use the Internet to promote subversive activities against the government. Against this background, it could be argued therefore that government’s indifference to the promotion of ICTs in Nigeria during the Abacha regime could be linked to the lack of a science and technology policy in the country. This view however flies in the face of general perception in other parts of the world, including Africa, where the general opinion was that ICTs held the key to socioeconomic development. It is worrying that whereas ICTs were associated with the democratization of information and communication in other parts of the world, in Nigeria, however, ICTs were perceived in government circles as a dangerous weapon which should, as much as possible, be kept away from the larger segment of the population.

Although ICTs were predominantly a private sector-led activity in Ghana, government input in the promotion of these technologies has been widely hailed.

Well, the government on their part have done very well to the extent that they took off sales tax from people bringing in computers. The idea is to bring in more computers at reduced rates. The only thing is that we’re being let down, we don’t develop software here. (Gha/AK)

To make it easier for everybody, in our Customs tariffs, computers are duty-free. So, increasingly it’s going to be a bare affordable gadget. (Gha/Director)

In about 140 of our educational institutions, we have established science resource centres which are also being given computer facilities which, hopefully, will also allow them increasingly to have access to educational programs, thus opening the way for, if you like, systems learning. (Gha/PR)

… we ourselves in this ministry have a homepage on the Internet — www.ghanagov.gh — which allows us to put out information on Ghana for investors, for tourists, for students and whoever is interested in getting information on Ghana and it’s an interactive facility where we respond to the questions and so on. (Gha/Director)

Respondents in Cote d’Ivoire stated that there was some level of government support for the growth of ICTs in the country, although government was more prone to lean toward programmes aimed at poverty alleviation rather than direct funding of ICTs.

Inherent in these findings is the relationship/influence of system of government on the promotion of ICTs in each country. In more stable democracies such as Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, ICTs were seen as tools that aid development and were being actively promoted by the government. However, in a military dictatorship such as Nigeria, the study found the government was unwilling to support the use of ICTs because it feared for the inherent dangers to which dissident groups could put these technologies. One can therefore argue that the fear of ICTs in Nigeria emanated from the ability of ICTs to make available divergent views on any subject. Thus, ICTs at all levels of society and particularly lower levels of society encourage self-empowerment.  It is important to point out that Nigeria returned to a democracy on the 29 May 1999. The findings reported here were collected during January/February 1998 when interviews were conducted in Nigeria.

Another significant finding of this study is that, useful as ICTs are to the development of Africa and Asia-Pacific, they also leave in their wake certain consequences which the respondents were quick to point out. In other words, ICTs have their drawbacks as well. For example, some respondents in Fiji and the Philippines noted that ICTs were not all that appropriate to their cultural context.

The Internet opened everything for anybody who wants information. Our concern is that it could be contrary to our customs. For example, pornography now is open and students and staff members can access this… It could cause some social problems. (Fij/KF)

ICTs will create new wants and will result in waste. I think we need to step back and study what is good for us and how we can make use of these technologies given our limited resources. (Phil/RV)

What are the issues of concern regarding ICTs in fledgling African economies? Much as ICTs enhance efficiency at work, there are genuine fears that they could also engender unemployment in various ways and promote cultural imperialism.

UNEMPLOYMENT:

… how does an economy like this sustain so many typists, so many printing presses that could go out of business because of ordinary desktop publishing activities. Whilst it facilitates, it also kills some labour intensive sectors of the economy. How do we deal with that? (Gha/AK)

If you look at the postal system also, I do not know its impact, but certainly faxes, telephones are minimising postage and so on. Email is minimising all that. Whilst it facilitates communication, what about people who would be thrown off employment? (Gha/KK)

CULTURAL CONCERNS:

If you look at their application in some areas like film animation, these are very useful for cartoon animation but nobody has put on our television African image cartoons and so on. And there are so many other cultural implications that we haven’t yet looked at. (Gha/AK)

… look at the computers we use. Nobody has sat down to introduce on the keyboards, the alphabets of the Ghanaian language. Some of these basic cultural things…, we’re still using the same software that are culturally bound. … if you go to places like Ethiopia or Eritrea, they have their alphabets on their computers. So what are we doing in West Africa about inputting, developing, and inputting our software. (Gha/Kari)

LOCAL PRODUCTION:

I’m more concerned, anytime we talk about new technologies, is how are we going to be involved in the production of the hardware. Are we going to be allowed to produce certain parts? (Civ/FE)

I believe simply acquiring these things to use is not going to be enough. It could help a lot in changing things, in helping us improve upon our living conditions but as far as I am concerned, this is only on condition that we are going to be able to produce some of the hardware and software that would be involved in the usage. Gha/AK)
Futures of ICTs in Africa and Asia-Pacific

There were certain recurrent themes about the envisaged futures of ICTs in Africa and Asia-Pacific. These include:

·        greater education of the population to achieve computer literacy;

·        deregulation of the telecommunications industry to promote competition and price reduction;

·        greater dependence on the new technologies and the consequent displacement of human services;

·        popularisation of ICTs in all human activities and government intervention to ensure that marginalised members of society have access to the new technologies; leadership to be provided by businesses such as banks because the new technologies will impact on their activities;

·        continuation of the struggle to dispel the prevailing notion that one is poor if one does not have ICTs and that anyone thinking of becoming rich must acquire ICTs;

·        Use of ICTs in distance education (through web-based studies) and distance medicine.

In general, however, there was quite a bit of divergence when it came to discussion on the likely and preferred futures of ICTs.

Respondents felt that while the future was “mind boggling” a measured pace was needed. The wider community needed to be taken along.  Some believed that telecommunication giants would create the future, and others felt that consumers would lead the way.  In the Philippines, government was seen as a regulator, in Fiji, NGOs and the private sector were seen as more important in creating the future, while in Africa, government was seen as a benign force.

Consumers will always hold the preferred future of anything. (Fiji, TP)

Developments should be at a measured pace …to develop the wider community good with a need  to keep pace with world developments and take advantage. (Fiji/MB)

I can foresee things like telehealth and distance learning but it’ll need assistance from NGOS. They’re not things that the private sector will take on because their bottom line is money. (Fiji/CM)

Public facilities – ICTs – [should be] made accessible to everybody… the government should not … turn the country into one huge market for foreign ICT products. (Philippines/RV)

Government should come in seriously … let government invite specific investors for ICTs (Uganda/ZM).

The most important dimension of the future was education. ICTs, it was believed, could fundamentally transform education.

Discussion

Certain issues have emerged from this study. The first concerns the level of awareness and usage of ICTs. While awareness level may be high, only a few people have access to these technologies in Africa and Asia-Pacific regions. The reasons for this situation are many. These include ignorance, general poverty in society, poor culture of maintenance and repair, poor infrastructural support base (inefficiency in electricity and telephone systems), lack of support from government, illiteracy and lack of basic computing skills, absence of science and technology policy, and unstable political systems (mostly in Africa) which lead to low foreign investment in science and technology development. Although optimism was high about the usefulness of ICTs, there were also concerns about the social consequences of ICTs such as their potential to exacerbate unemployment even as they help society to do things better and faster; concern about ICTs helping to ‘corrupt’ local traditions and cultures through provision of easy access to pornography; stifling of local languages through consistent use of the language of the Internet — English; as well as worries about non-local input into software production

The impact on education and socioeconomic development of new communication technologies such as computers, interactive multimedia systems, digital telecommunications and the Internet will remain the subject of arguments among communication scholars in developed and developing societies.  As noted in the early part of this report, the new communication technologies have their strengths and drawbacks.  McQuail (1987) and Pool (1975) have argued, from the perspective of the developed world, that rather than pose a threat to the developing countries, the new technologies carry numerous advantages which should be utilised to enhance telecommunications services and to ensure the democratization of information.

Although McQuail (1987) pointed to “an increase in communication of all kinds”, it must be pointed out, on the basis of the findings of this study, that developing African and Asia-Pacific societies will enjoy the increase in communication only when the question of access to the new technologies has been sorted out. If access to the new technologies is limited to a small segment of the population, it follows that the impact of the new ICTs will also be limited to the few members of society. Just as access to the mass media is limited in rural areas of developing countries, so too will access to the new technologies be limited to a few individuals who can afford to acquire the new technologies. Addressing the more immediate and basic needs of African and Asia-Pacific countries along with acquisition of the new technologies appears to be the more appropriate approach to adopt. As some of the respondents pointed out, the world waits for no one and so too are developments in ICT.

Addressing the more immediate and basic needs of Africa, along with acquisition of appropriate technologies appears to be the more reasonable approach to adopt. As some of the respondents pointed out, the world waits for no one and so too are developments in ICT.

Conclusion

This preliminary research on ICT adoption in Africa and the Asia-Pacific suggests that there are serious barriers to their use in educational and socioeconomic development, such as issues of infrastructure support, access to the ICTs, training and skills development, and hierarchical social relations which determine who has access to ICTs.

We are concerned that the implementation of ICTs is occurring in a context where the cultural and institutional barriers are not well addressed. The assumption often made is that if one just purchases a few computers and modems, a post-industrial society can magically result.

Developing African and Asia-Pacific countries are caught in a Catch-22 situation: without using these new technologies, their future generations will further lag behind and will find themselves further impoverished. If they use these technologies without addressing some of the concerns and needs of their societies, they could be placing their carts before their horses. We believe that what is needed most is effective and efficient, not to mention wise, telecommunications and culture policy, as well as research that informs such policy. As noted in the early part of this report, the new communication technologies have their strengths and drawbacks, they should not merely be seen as apolitical tools but as embedded in culture, politics and our mutual futures.  This means that their transference must not only be about the hardware transfer but about software transfer, institutional support, servicing, and in the long run, about facilitating the transformation of users in Africa and the Asia-Pacific from consumers to producers of knowledgeware.

Implementation recommendations

What is needed now are experiments/practices/plans in which ICTs are understood, engaged in, and developed in local and historical contexts. This means a development approach based on anticipatory action learning, where the users frame their needs, and where future needs are explored. Doing so means not so much an overall strategy but a framework of communication between different parties, users, the private sector, business, government, and large telecommunication corporations.

Moving this research to the implementation phase, we recommend the following:

·        Implementation must be linked to local problems, specifically to poverty alleviation. This linkage must be direct, showing stakeholders the benefits of using ICTs for economic growth.

·        Implementation must also show how ICTs can transform education, making it far more interactive and empowering for students and professors/teachers. CD-ROMs and access to the web must not only be inexpensive, but as much as possible be locally driven, based on local content.

·        Implementation must help transform users of ICTs in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from consumers to producers of new knowledge and wealth. Dissemination of hardware must include software support, institutional linkages, and servicing. This must be done in the context of local cultural practices including those that inhibit ICT use (hierarchical institutional practices).

·        Implementation must occur with a policy context guided by participatory action research, where all stakeholders in an iterative manner define their needs, goals and concerns.

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Project Consultants:

·        Dr. Levi Obijiofor is a Lecturer in the Department of Journalism, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. Between May 1996 and July 1998, he was a Research Fellow at The Communication Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia. Obijiofor has worked at various times as Sub-Editor, Production Editor, and Night Editor in a leading independent English language newspaper – The Guardian – in Lagos, Nigeria. Between March 1995 and May 1996, he worked in the Division of Studies and Programming (BPE/BP) in the Paris headquarters of UNESCO where he co-ordinated and edited the bulletin and database of future-oriented literature – FUTURESCO. His contact details are: Telephone: +61 7 3365 2627; Fax: +61 7 3365 1377; E-mail: l.obijiofor@mailbox.uq.edu.au

·        Dr. Sohail Inayatullah is a fellow with the World Futures Studies Federation and a member of the executive board. He is also a fellow of the World Academy of Art and Science, and co-editor of the Journal of Futures Studies and associate editor of New Renaissance. In 1999, he holds a variety of academic positions, including Unesco Chair, University of Trier; Tamkang Chair, Tamkang University; Professor and Chair of the School of Futures Studies, International Management Centres; and, Honorary Visiting Fellow, Queensland University of Technology. Inayatullah can be reached at: 5/15 Elliott Street, Hawthorne, 4171, Queensland, Australia. Email: s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au.. Web: www.others.com, www.ru.org, www.worldfutures.org.

·        Associate Professor Tony Stevenson was formerly Director of the Communication Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia. He is now President, World Futures Studies Federation, c/- Noosa Institute for the Future, P.O. Box 188, Noosa Heads 4567, Australia. Phones +61 7 5447 4394, +61 419 782 431; Fax +61 7 5448 0776; Email: tony.stevenson@WorldFutures.org; Web: www.worldfutures.org.

Interviewers:

Ingrid Leary, Lecturer, Department of Journalism, PO Box 1168, University of South Pacific. Email: leary_i@usp.ac.fj.

Alan  Alegre, Director, Foundation for Media Alternatives, Manila, Philippines. Email: alalegre@codewan.com.ph.

Zaali Majanja, Coordinator, World Futures Studies Club – Uganda. PO Box 3306, Kampala, Uganda. Fax: 256-41-530397.

Levi Obijiofor, Lecturer, Department of Journalism, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia.

The Futures of Volunteerism (2000)

Sohail Inayatullah

To understand the futures of volunteerism, we need to unpack current perspectives and practices of volunteerism.

First volunteerism makes sense in the context of a paid economy, that is, wherein labour in monetized. It is its opposite. In a society where there is no scarcity, the entire society would be about volunteerism.  That is, it exists in the context of certain things that have to be done – the famous job. As the future of work is being transformed, potentially creating a world where only 10% will work, the issue of what will the rest do can be partly solved by volunteerism. The 90% who do not work will either be well off because of technology or permanently the underclass. In either case, the issue of intellectual and spiritual development will be problematic since there will be no challenge. Volunteerism provides a vehicle to express some of these potentials.

Historically, volunteerism was central to society, it was part of community building, take care of others, indeed, central to agricultural/feudal society.  It was especially strong in religious systems. In Islam, this was focused on feeding the poor, neighbors and relatives. However, there was no specific term called volunteerism. This is modern, it appears.

VOLUNTEERISM IN INDUSTRIAL TIMES

Volunteerism in industrial times is essentially about the following:

  • Partly about charity (do good work for others). This is generally about volunteerism and idealism. Volunteerism makes us a better person and it builds the community. Those activities that the state or market cannot pay for, volunteers can handle.
  • Partly about filling in the spaces that the State cannot cover.  With globalization and the resultant pressure to reduce state expenditures, volunteerism becomes on of the easiest ways out for the State. No structural changes are needed. Privatization can continue unabated.
  • Volunteerism, while idealistic, is also about nation-building and nation-legitimacy. Behind it is the notion that we should sacrifice to make a great nation. Business is working hard, the State is working hard, now each and every citizen should give of their labour to create a great nation. Images of and stories of sacrifice are used to convince citizens. This is most often done in times of war but as well as part of economic development and disaster relief.
  • Volunteerism is also partly about social movements. In this sense volunteerism is not merely about charity or nation building but about transforming society. With globalization expanding the economic sphere (creating us all into consumers and economic rationalists) and the State sphere either increasing this process (becoming more efficient, transparent, citizen oriented, democratic but with far less funds), issues of solidarity, partnership, justice, morality are lost. Environmental concerns, women’s concerns and those negatively impacted by globalization are dealt with through volunteer labour. However, this volunteerism is not beholden to state, rather it is about transforming state and economy, creating a dynamic civil society. If we take a spatial view, it is about challenging the expansion of the market (or at the very least, helping those who fall through the cracks of globalization) and enhancing the size of the people’s culture. This means as well expansion relative to the size of the state.
  • Volunteerism is also partly about what to do with youth. Given that there are not enough jobs for young people, what should they do. Volunteerism becomes a state sponsored solution to crime, to minds with nothing to do, and to the bio-psychological transition to young people go through as they become adults.

POST-SCARCITY FUTURES

However as we move to a post-industrial, postmodern economy, volunteerism takes on a different guise. Volunteerism becomes the answer to the question of what to do in a leisure society wherein scarcity is no longer a problem.

This has two phases. The first is the current stage where most work in most industrial societies is no longer essential for housing, food, clothes, education and health. It is featherbedding, engaged in to keep all employed. We could easily reorganize society to eliminated 40-50 of current jobs (much of government, the advertising industry, the endless product churning out machines and structures).

The second phase is essentially about the Long Boom, or incredible growth through nano-technology, artificial intelligence and genetic technologies. Endless wealth creation and for all practical purposes the elimination of scarcity, first in all OECD nations, and second, through out the world.

Given that we define ourselves by how we work and how we consume, what then? Volunteerism gives us a glimpse of a meaningful future – that is, engaging in activities that benefit others. It also helps us escape consumer culture.

SCENARIOS

The future of volunteerism is generally dependent on the future of the world system.

In a globalized economy (where the key driver in the economy)  volunteerism will continue to expand as it will be necessary to fill services that markets and the state are unwilling or incapable of doing so. This is especially the case with an aging society.

In a post-scarcity artificial economy (where the key driver is technology), volunteerism will be directly related to meaning, to finding ways to create social community with others, to learn about others, to do things with others.

In the current world, a bit globalized, a bit nation-state dominated, a bit church dominated, volunteerism will continue to take many guises. These include as part of nation-building (long live our state), as local community development, a charity for the poor, as an alternative to military service.

In a world that collapses because of the crash of world capitalism or climate change, volunteerism will be main activity, providing the glue for communities under distress.

However, for volunteerism to fulfil its idealistic dimension, it will need to clear about its vision. For me, this has to be about service to others. This means service to plants, animals, and human being through physical activity, intellectual activity and spiritual activity.

Ultimately, volunteerism is about creating a new type of world – one where individuals are not commodified by markets or oppressed by states but find ways to express the softer dimensions of culture.

VOLUNTEER FUTURES

What then specifically can we say about the futures of volunteerism. These are the following scenarios.

1.      Volunteerism as Expanding Civil Society – Volunteerism remains about developing one’s own human potential and about expanding the circle of civil society. Volunteerism grows as society becomes officially less caring and more finance driven. With less money for the public, only volunteers can soothe the pains caused by globalization.  Volunteerism, however, becomes an agent for social change, uniting with other social movements for a different social contract than that offered by globalization. Volunteerism is essential in creating a global moral society. Volunteerism moves from taking care of the individual to social transformation.

2.      Volunteerism as charity. Volunteerism remains tied to individual actions, as part of either feeling good, or reducing guilty, or as stop-gap measures that Big Capital and Big Government are unable to adequately respond to.  Volunteerism becomes a major activity of elderly people. It is how they pass their time and find meaning.

3.      Volunteerism as Expanding the State. In this last scenario, volunteerism expands but generally to celebrate the nation-state or the corporation or some other abstract entity. Volunteers are used for social and political purposes. They are organized and “governmentalized” to use a Foucauldian phrase.

Which futures emerge is dependent on a variety of forces. First, how grand trends such as globalization play themselves out. Second, the impact of aging on wealthy societies. Third, the capacity of social movements to organize and create a new global contract between self, other, nature and polity. Fourth, agency within volunteer movements themselves, particularly their vision of the future. While technology, globalization and changing demographics push the future, the preferred vision is the pull of the future. Without this pull, volunteerism and volunteer organizations will find their futures appropriate for nation and capital, and not for the idealism that is essentially their reason for being.

New Futures Ahead: Genetic or Microvita Transformation (2000)

By
Sohail Inayatullah

The conventional view of the future assumes that life will keep on getting better. Income will go up, houses will increase in value, new technologies will make life better for all, even if in the short run some of us have to retrain. Our children’s lives will improve. To be sure, there will be difficult times, but challenges will be solved, either through government or through entrepreneurial activity. OECD nations will remain fair societies, where the most vulnerable will be taken care of.

This incremental view of the future is being challenged with claims that we are in the midst of the emergence of a post-industrial knowledge economy, a postmodern future. Indeed, this is a time of many “posts”, meaning that the new era we are in is still being created, its outlines not yet clear, the institutional arrangements (what will government look like, who will watch over whom) still being sorted out.
Deeper changes

But perhaps the transformation is even deeper, challenging not just industrialism, but the entire rise of capitalism and the long term ascension of Western civilization, the Colombian era.

Nano-technologies and artificial intelligence might make production on a scale never before possible. Of course, these technologies are not yet on line but we are seeing hints of a post-scarcity society, challenging the idea that poverty will always be with (well at least because of technological reasons).

Smarter markets, meaning all products bar-coded with complete pricing details (how much the Indonesian worker was paid, how many trees were cut down, how much the middle-man made) will soon be possible, allowing consumers to vote with their dollars. Standards will then continue their transformation from merely the product’s physical quality (what it looks like, is it safe and safely made) to its functional quality (how well it does what it claims to do) to its context (ethical quality).
By giving accurate information to consumers, the Internet could level the inequalities of capitalism, creating a giant peoples market. Capitalism could also transform through another depression, a global one once the speculative bubble of the world’s financial markets finally bursts.

Equally transformative is the rise of multiculturalism. Taken to its full extent it shatters any notion of one culture, one state, one knowledge system, and one view of science. Can nations adequately organize the emergent differences being created, the vision a world of many cultures – a gaia of civilizations – of an ecology of different worldviews?

Proudly negotiating the tensions between the local and the universal (between feudal and empire/world church), even if the passport office remains its power to deport, the nation-state as the sole holder of power has entered a terminal process. Whether it will take 50 years or a hundred, we know well that revolutions from below (nongovernmental organizations), revolutions from above (international institutions), revolutions from capital (globalism), revolutions of culture (new ways of seeing self and other, of boundaries) and revolutions of technology (air travel, the Net) all make the nation-state deeply problematic. Of course, the Hansons, the Milosevics, the brahmins and mullahs will not disappear. With no place to hold onto, they will fight until the bitter end, hoping that enough of us will retain sentiments of ethno-nationalism, of patriotism (and be willing to kill for it). They will hope to transform the quite legitimate concerns of individuals fearing change, corporate control, foreigners and loss of jobs into a politics of exclusion, of attacking the other.

Governance
What world is likely to result from these historical revolutions in governance? There is a range of historical-structural possibilities. Either one religious system dominates creating a world church, temple or mosque or one nation dominates creating a world empire. The former is unlikely, as reality has become too fragmented. Neither christians nor muslims (or buddhists) are likely to convert en mass tomorrow, even if Jesus, the madhi, or amida buddha return. The problem of universally recognizing God is not likely to be solved in the year 2000, even if the Redeemer does return.

A world empire is difficult given the democratic impulse. The only nation currently vying for the job is caught by its own democratic participatory language. Disney and Microsoft are far more likely victors than the US state department, irrespective of what conspiracy theorists in Belgrade, Baghdad, Beijing and Kuala Lumpur believe.

But can the world capitalist economy – the third alternative – remain the hegemonic definer of identity? It has flourished because the economy has been global, expanding, while identity has been national, fixed, and thus has politics. With the nation in steep trouble, can a world economy with national identity politics continue? Localist – the fourth alternative – movements hope to capture the spaces being created by the loss of national identity. However, in their attempts to be authentically local, to challenge corporatism, they find themselves forced to link with other environmental, spiritual, labor, organizations. Cyberlobbying, the politics on the Net, too, forces them into global space indeed, all forces do. Localism only succeeds when it becomes global.

Globalisms

In this sense while we are half-way through the first phase of globalization, that is, of capital, phase two is likely to be the globalization of labor, Marx’s dream all along. If capital can travel freely, why not labor? Already, elite intellectual labor does, and soon other forms will as well. At the very least information the conditions of labor will via “the smart products method” become global. The next wave will be the multicultural. News – not the details of reporting but what we report about – will begin to flow not just downwards from Hollywood, New York and London upward as well. Already, the best newspapers are those that include the feeds of many cultures. The Pakistani paper, The News, for example, far exceeds any reporting The New York Times might manage, largely, as it is weaker, and thus to survive gets feeds from Arab, South Asian, East Asian and Western sources. Not just news, but ideas, language, culture is beginning to filter all around, and even if Murdock is likely to standardize, still standardization is being challenged throughout the world. Customization is the likely future, technology allows it so, and postmodernism provides the cultural legitimacy for it. The search for authenticity in postmodern times, even if largely about style, forces a questioning of one’s once presumed universal values. To question: the male, western, technocratic, linear, capitalist basis of reality. History books (why are muslims seen only as threats, why is the Pacific, the water continent seen as irrelevant?) and children’s stories are all being deconstructed (why are witches constantly portrayed as evil?) and seen as particular of a worldview (Europe defining what is true, good and beautiful), and not as universal. Facts come to be through narratives, or at the very least, what meanings we give to the facts change.

The final phase of globalization is likely to be a world security force, inklings of which we are already seeing (although certainly still within the hegemonic framework).

With empire, one church, localism and a world capitalist economy around nation-states nearly impossible to sustain, what this means is that we will soon move to a world government system with strong localist tendencies, with thousands of bio-regions. The guiding ethic will be a move from strategy as our foremost paradigm to that of health and healing (of negotiating reality, difference, of reconciliation, and of having a big stick, ie the world security force) along with a neo-Magna Carta guaranteeing the right of culture, language and income.

The details are terribly important and burdensome, and how the Chinese will get along with the Americans is difficult to predict (just as the modern era was not possible to articulate from the feudal), but the structural forces are such that the only solution to the future is that. Many hope for a world governance system with strong localism. But this is unlikely, as localist systems alone do not survive because they get taken over. It is not love alone that will create this new world system.

Aspirations

That said, aspirations for what people all over the world fall into three scenarios.

The first is the globalist scenario. A jet plane for each and every; the capacity to speak many languages; multicultural; postmodern; Net-hip, and no more scarcity.

The second is the organic scenario. Community and connecting with others is far more important. Relationship is not just about communication but it is a way of knowing. Slowing time down from the fast, always-one, always-everywhere, globalist world is a priority. Good sex, good food, and regular exercise and meditation also rank high. The image of the future is that of self-reliance electronically and spiritually (through the medium of microvita, Indian Philosopher P. R. Sarkar’s notion of the basic units of life).

The third scenario is the collapse, the return of Mad Max, the end of capitalism, tidal waves galore, escaped viruses (of the internet and biological types), airborne AIDs, and thank god for it since we have collectively sinned – mixed species, mixed marriages – forgotten what reality is really about. The aspiration dimension is that after the collapse, a moral order, with a strong father figure, returns.

There is a generational aspect to the future as well. Generation X is concerned about ethics, about the environment, about others. The globalist scenario is loved by the .Com generation. Growing up where difference is essential, they surf culture and the Net.

But there is more to the globalist scenario than just the freeing of capital and information. Indeed, that is why many believe we the transformation we are witnessing is far more fundamental than the victory of liberalism, the end of industrialism, and even the ascension of progress and the West.
End of Nature

For the first time we are on the verge of changing nature. Technology is the verge of the rapid redesign of evolution itself. Imagine a hand, writes information evolutionist Susantha Goonatilake, wearing a glove, writing with a pen. The hand represents the stability of evolution, our body constant over time; the glove represents culture, our meaning systems, our protection, our method of creating shared spaces and creating a difference between us and nature; and the pen, technology, representing our effort to create, to improve, to change culture and nature. While the traditional tension was between technology and culture with evolution “stable”, now the pen (technology) has the potential to turn back on the hand and redesign it, making culture but technique, a product of technology. Thus the traditional feedback loop of culture and technology with biology the stable given is about to be transformed.

Evolution ceases to be something that happens to us but becomes directed. Add the Internet revolution, and suddenly we have information and genetic technologies or IGTs. Through the web we’ll be able to order children. But isn’t this far far away? Not say geneticists such as Leroy Hood, William Gates Professor of Molecular Biotechnology and Bioengineering. He argues that we are in the midst of a dramatic paradigm shift in the sciences, specifically the ascendancy of biology and the movement from hypothesis-based science to discovery science. Once the human genome is mapped, the first stage of application will be genetic prevention, the friendly visit to the local genetic doctor (or genedoctor.com). This is something we all would agree to, well, except the disabled, who now find themselves in a double whammy, says David Turnbull, made irrelevant by globalism, now they will be soon as the genetic discards of history, to be forever removed, like a bulldozed slum. But as with all slums, they will come back, and in far more problematic forms.

But we can now engineer intelligence, that is, genetic enhancement, making us all smarter and thus be able to deal with the externalities we create. If needed, we can make some of us stupider to do the dirty work. But ideally the dirty work will be done by the robots. And if the robots are not quite ready, the traditional solution of immigration remains. Indeed, for the West with rapid ageing soon to challenge economic growth, immigration will decide with OECD nations prosper and which decline. The ones that let in young Asians and Africans will have bright futures, others will slip away, lag behind. However, along with immigration there are two other possibilities. One: increase production through the Net. Two: create new humans, genetically.

Thus, after genetic enhancement, genetic recreation. The issue of whether we should do this, that is, ethics, unfortunately remains the endnote to the science and technology revolution. When you are changing the very nature of nature, why let a bit of ethics comes in the way between old and new species.

And ultimately that is what it will soon be about. Once genetic inequality becomes a main issue – that is the right to genetic enhancement – the world state will come in and regulate not if we should have baby factories but that they are safe and nicely air-conditioned.

Can anything be done to avoid the baby-factory future, or is the conflation between Big Science, Big Business, State, and our own materialistic urges so strong that the future will be one where we exist in not an ecology of types of life, but one where “we” as natural humans will be circumspect. Doyne Farmer of the famous Sante Fe Institute describes it in these apocalyptic terms:

If we fail in our task as creators (creating our successors), they may indeed be cold and malevolent. However, if we succeed, they maybe glorious, enlightened creatures that far surpass us in their intelligence and wisdom. It is quite possible that, when the conscious beings of the future look back on this earth, we will be most noteworthy, not in and of ourselves, but rather for what we gave rise to. Artificial life is potentially the most beautiful creation of humanity.
Along with Nature, reality, truth and sovereignty are equally contentious.

Reality once given, is now made. As we learn in Blade Runner, the toy maker to the question of what do you do, says. “I make friends,” meaning not relationship and communion but the manufacture of others.

Once we knew what was real, now we have the virtual. What is maya and what is not. The Matrix ceases to be entertainment becoming a profound critique of what is to be.

Truth has already been deconstructed. Postmodernists, feminists, postcolonial theorists have rampaged across the globe questioning the epistemic basis of modernity, leaving all in tatters.

And sovereignty is already long gone, not just of the nation, but of the self. We have become many selves, many identities, numerous communities. While some hold on to the 9/5 job, living in the Pleasantville of work and home, others have become far more fluid, traveling in many spaces, many cultures.

Genetics or microvita?

Where then is home? Where in the future is our resting space? And who will create it? Will it be those who are part of the current system, those in the Continued growth model of the future? Government leaders and corporate CEOs? Or will it be the “bedouins”, those imagining a more organic connected future, those outside of official power. Will the current bedouin members and members of the social movements create a new future. Will their challenge for new rights (for humans, animals and plants), for gender partnerships (womanists and feminists), for spirituality (seeking to transcend religion and secularism, finding meaning in a lived relationship with the infinite) and for social activism (a moral not amoral economy and politics) and against 500 years of continued growth be successful?

But instead of the bedouins, the “others” – steeped in ancient cyclical time – the likely future remains that of speed, the teflon postmodern self, and our genetic recreated offspring, the double helix generation to come. They imagine a future with no limits and have the wealth to create it.

Are there any limits to the technological changes ahead? Gordon Moore, founder of Intel – and Moore’s law (that the number of devices on a piece of silicon doubles every year or two), when asked about the pace of change says:

We’re working with feature sizes that are so small, they’re hard to imagine—you could say that the features are about the size of a … virus, …We currently use visible light to etch components on the semiconductors, but now we’re getting down to wavelengths for which essentially no materials are transparent. You can’t make lenses any more. We’re looking at three major alternatives to go beyond what we do now—X-rays, electron beams, and something called extreme ultraviolet … The next problem we run across is the fact that materials are made out of atoms. I don’t see a way around that one.

But perhaps the solution to these limits will be from outside the material, outside our expectations. P.R. Sarkar writes that the very nature of reality must be ideational and physical at the same time – microvita. At the crudest form they are viruses, at the deepest, they are pockets of energy that can be used to direct evolution that can carry information. Like the geneticists, he believes we are directing evolution but it is being directed through our creative collective unconscious, through our aspirations for a different world. These aspirations become not mere visions of dreamers but the program for, at least, our social, if not, biological evolution.
Which future will it be then? Incremental Change? The globalist artificial society? The organic global community? Or a collapse followed by a strong moral order?
Will the technocrats or humanists win this one, or are we creating a world where neither one has the current metaphorical capacity to recognize the future?

Dr. Sohail Inayatullah. Professor, Center for Future Studies, Tamkang University, Taiwan; Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of the Sunshine Coast; and the Communication Center, Queensland University of Technology.

The Apocalypse Never Need Be Nigh (2000)

So assert Australia’s leading futurists Dr Peter Ellyard and Dr Sohail Inayatullah  following gloom’n’doom predictions from futurists of the northern hemisphere. 

London School of Economics professor Ian Angel has written that there simply will not be a human race by the year 3000 because the world already is overpopulated. Geoff Jenkins, head of Britain’s Hadley Centre of climate predictions has offered the gloomy prospect of melted ice sheets flooding out whole countries if the world continues to use fossil fuels.

 Dr Ellyard, Executive director of Preferred Futures, Melbourne, chairman of the Universal Greening Group, former Executive director of the Australian Commission of the Future refuses to stoop to such grim prognoses. “What’s the point of being a futurist if you cannot be positive?” he says. 

One day he thinks that people will be taking degrees in futurism. Meanwhile, this abstract occupation which melds economics, conservation, politics and philosophy, suddenly has found a footing in the world realisation that the future has arrived and it is called 2000. 

Perhaps the first sign of global cohesion emerged in the New Year’s Eve celebrations of the world, beamed instantly through satellite communications from and to every corner of the globe. 

Suddenly, it was the global village party. 

According to Dr Ellyard, such phenomena are just beginning and, if humanity plays its cards right, we can not only treat our global ills but create a new“planetary culture”. 

It will not be simple, but it is achievable. 

This now is “the century of the planet” and it heralds the time for many major changes of the ways in which we do things. 

“Dr Ellyard calls the new path “Planetism” which, he says, succeeds Post Modernism. “The Earth is becoming more interdependent and co-operative,” he asserts. “This new planetary culture is being moulded by a combination of political, economic, technological and ecological forces of great power which are all working synergistically to create it. “My grandparents grew up identifying themselves with Western Australian and New South Wales rather than Australia. My grandchildren will identify themselves with their planet as much as their nation.”  

Thus does Dr Ellyard, former director of the South Australian department for the Environment  and director of the State’s now defunct Ministry of Technology, speak of a global trading system, one which has learned from the protests of Seattle’s World Trade Conference. He sees a positive in the United Nations which, while still imperfect, has potential in the role of planetary peacemaker and peacekeeper. 

“The world is also being united by ecologically driven fear, fear of global ecological disaster,” he says. 

“For centuries fear has divided humanity, now is  beginning to unite it … fear of unpredictable climatic change and an ozone-depleted atmosphere is forcing people to think 40 years ahead, and to co-operate on an unprecedented level.” 

Dr Ellyard, who has worked as a senior consultant to the United National Environment Program, says Australia’s stand on emissions has been shameful and that priorities should move away from working with the coal industry to developing alternative energy. 

He thinks the world has been too much concerned with survival and not with what he calls “thrival” , which has higher aspirations. “We are a means-to-an-end society but we must really focus on our destination because if you know the destination you may find other means of transportation.”  

Dr Ellyard believes in the division of an old“cowboy culture” of individualism, independence, autocracy, patriarchy, unsustainable lifestyles, conflict resolution through confrontation, reliance on defence and a sense of humanity against nature and a new “spaceship culture” which is based on communication, interdependence, democracy, sustainable lifestyle, gender equality, conflict resolution through negotiation and reliance on security. We must leave cowboys behind and board the spaceship for a successful transition to 3000. 

Author Dr Sohail Inayatullah, of Tamkang University and a visiting academic at Queensland University of Technology, sympathises with such thinking, commenting that while the year 2000 represents hope because humanity has survived nuclear accidents, biological warfare and asteroids, it also has been an era of immense growth, albeitwith failures in distribution which have the world’s richest 225 people with assets exceeding the combined income of over the poorest 47 per cent of the world’s population. 

Both futurists look to solutions based on education and communication and lifelong learning as opposed to the pressure cooker education of children being just one strategy. Both believe that some form of world governance is likely. 

Dr Inayatullah sees four possible structures for future governance: a world empire run by one national or civilisation, a dominant religious system creating a world temple, church or mosque, a world economy or localist mini-systems devoted to retaining regional language, culture, environment and economy. 

“A world economy, in a nation state context, is our current model,” he says. “However, since the nation-state is increasingly porous, the world economy/nation state model is now unstable. It appears that the latter alternative, a world government with mini-cultural systems, is quite possible in the mid-term.” 

Dr Inayatullah notes that with the USA set to become the second largest Spanish speaking nation in the world and with immigration the only likely savior to the rapidly ageing West, multiculturalism appears to be here to stay. 

“The US Army also will be dramatically muslim in 30or so years (and with many senior US government posts coming from Army leaders, we can well imagine a shift in US foreign policy around 2025,” he says. 

“The long-term net result of multiculturalism maybe an entirely new set of identity arrangements,” While information technology is offering us a single, highly-networked world,  everyone on earth soon will be able to participate in global events. “Teleconferencing, e-mail, multi-media workstations and faxes are only some of the new tools of planetary co-operation and dialogue,” says Dr Ellyard.

“New computer software is now assisting cooperative dialogue and decision-making independent of space and time.” 

“We know more about what is going on all over the planet than ever before. John Donne’s famous of the year 1620 has never been more true. 

Donne wrote: 

No man is an Island, entire of itself;

Every man is part of the continent, a part of the main;

If a clod be washed away by the sea,

Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were,

As well as if a manor of thy friends or of thine own were;

Any man’s death diminishes me, because I am involved in Mankind;

And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls;

It tolls for thee.           

 Dr Inyatullah cites future images wherein genetic engineering and human cloning may be things of great beauty and achievement, correctly applied. He cites a world where not only humans and animals roam, but also chimeras, cyborgs, robots.  “The key issue is how will we treat them.” 

The future, therefore, is not so much “given” or created by God or nature, but made by human intervention in evolution and in the creation of new forms of life. 

Reflects Dr Inayatullah: “Our future generations may look back at us and find us distant relatives.” 

Samela Harris

The Advertiser, January 4, Adelaide, 2000

De-masculization of the Future and of Futures Studies (1999)

By Ivana Milojević

From Verdandi to Belldandy: the Goddess of the Present Wishes a Better Future

The Reality
The majority of the liberal, or `progressive’ futurists today acknowledge the fact that Futures Studies – a not yet recognized field of enquiry within traditional disciplinary scientific divisions – have been dominated by one-civilizational view of time, reality and space. The futures of non-Western people and countries have been colonized in a similar way to their presents or pasts.[1] But even among the most progressive futurist there is a very strong underlying belief that, somehow, futures studies are at least gender-free. These futurists believe that futures studies are field in which personal values and attributes transcend polarized gender divisions. Some of them would rather belong to `people’s movement’ then to one which is part of and belongs to a particular gender group, or they describe the future like a `loo’ with separate entries but with the inside the same for everyone.

This reminds me of the debates and realities in my own country, and the efforts to transcend particular national identities while creating a new, Yugoslav one. Not surprisingly, it was always easier for the largest national group within the former Yugoslavia, the Serbs, to have their identity changed, as they did not feel that this new identity would deny their previous one.

On the other hand, marginal national groups, not just in Yugoslavia, often see the overlapping globalizing identities as a threat to their own, as they realize they would always be outnumbered. The reason why I, and some other women futurists, believe we should still occasionally work within `women’s groups’ is because within futures studies – especially where money and status are involved – women are outrageously outnumbered. The big umbrella of futures studies should be big enough to cover eveyone’s issues and concerns, but in reality, the famous futures fork is always leaning towards the male side and masculinity.

What is even more disturbing is the fact that most women futurists within `people movements’ work within accepted styles, on problems and issues as defined by masculinist concerns. This is, again, not surprising. Past and even present events teach us that if women `come out’ as feminist, or try to discuss women’s own views on future, they usually come under vicious attack.   One example is a special report in The Futurist on `Women’s Preferred Futures’.[2] This report was initially included in the journal as a result of women futurists complaints that an article in the journal: `Women of the Future: Alternative scenarios’, had been written by a man.[3] Women futurists who sent the letter, Hazel Handerson, Eleonora Masini and Riane Eisler, did not want to `condemn’ the article itself believing it was `well meaning’, but felt that women futurists should had been allowed `to speak for themselves’.[4] This feeling was intensified partly because of one illustration on the same page represented a chained woman.

Behind all the immediate and transparent reasons, the reaction was probably partly intensified as a result of long-term frustration with male domination in the field. Not only are men the greatest experts when it comes to the future in general, or when it comes to the every particular aspect of it, their views and opinions are also consulted when it comes to women’s futures, issues and concerns.

In response to critiques of the representation of women, the World Future Society, which publishes The Futurist, decided to `put up’ with women’s issues, and invited women futurists to `tell their vision of a preferred future’.[5] The section has been `written, edited, typeset, designed, and illustrated solely by women’.[6]  Not long after, this special report came under attack in the letters section. Even though this report asked women futurists what would be their preferred vision for the future, women who contributed were labelled as an `unrealistic bunch’.[7]

The other critique, also by a man, is a paradigmatic critique which follows feminism from its early days: this bunch could not claim to represent the `majority of women’ and instead the average woman should had been asked to `speak for herself’.[8] While it is, of course, perfectly acceptable, that western male futurists can make any generalization or universalistic statements about `the future’, when it comes to women’s futurists visions, `their opinions and prophecies’ are labelled as `self-serving of their own emotional and financial needs’.[9] The writer of the letter suggested that we should instead try to go out and find the average woman, meaning a `mother, homemaker, wife, school volunteer, or factory or office worker’.[10] The only letter sent by a woman, however, labeled one particular aspect of report as `enriching’, as it is gives an alternative to the issue she, in her working life, finds `distressing’.[11]

For most gender-conscious women futurists it is obvious that there is a big discrepancy in the way most people think about future trends and their alternatives, depending on which gendered interests they represent. Feminine alternatives are usually labelled as poor writing, or naive, or without enough substance, or utopian, while masculinist images, especially techno-maniacal and dystopian, are usually seen as realistic, far reaching and logical. It is interesting that especially the darkest images of the future get to be chosen as `realistic’ – somehow, people `take it as axiomatic that fears are realistic and hopes unrealistic’.[12] For feminist futurists it is also obvious that the way to the `future’s loo’ is all high-tech, making-life-easier, on the gentlemen’s side, and far too difficult, naturalized with thorns and bushes, on the ladies side.

The domination of the masculinist images of the future has now reached a new peak. These images are accepted by globalizing popular media, local and global policy planners or even by many liberal futurists. They all give priority and attach higher value to grand historical analyses and issues, and especially concentrate on discussions where power is going next. And this is where a women futurists might rather wish to be on the `other side’, either among `average women’ or among radical feminist separatist groups. Because the power in the `next millennia’ starting with 21C definitely does not seem like it is going in the direction of women. Just take the year 2200 as an example: according to Kurian and Molitor it will be an era in which women own up to 20% of the world’s property (a dramatic increase from the hardly believable 1% as it is apparently today).[13] At the same time, world income received by women will increase from the current 10% to 40%, which would represent a significant increase – if it is realized.[14] Kurian and Molitor, however, do not state on which `facts’ they base their forecasts. In fact, there is an ever increasing gap between rich and poor, and women are, unfortunately, still the majority of the world’s poor.

Posmodernism and the influence of non-Western feminist have changed the way we write and think about `women’ and destabilized previous universalistic conception. However, even though we now accept that the category of `women’ is as diverse and different as category of `men’ or `people’, since there are certain things we, as people, all share, there are also certain things we, as women, still have in common. One of those things is that we (women) all lack the most important resources for liberating ourselves and the future from masculinist domination: resources in time and personal energy. Both time and our energy are shattered over the multiplicity of the tasks necessary for adjustment and survival within patriarchal societies. Furthermore, together with many other marginal groups we lack the initial resources in wealth, education and knowledge, informal networks and even more importantly the will to engage in the power battle. Having said all this, I wish to conclude this section on `realistic’ writing about the future, or the writing which starts `with the trends as they seem to be emerging now, and then speculate on how they might develop’.[15]

Instead, I will now further explore women’s tradition of thinking about and influencing the future, and contemplate how the future could be liberated or de-masculinized.

Women and the future
At present, the fact is that women are not in charge of the future. Although being `practicing’ futurists'[16] women do not decide much about the general future, nor are they expected to. But that was not always so. The importance of looking in the past, for our efforts in thinking about and creating of the future, can be summarized in a famous sentence by Kenneth Boulding: if it exist, it is possible.[17] So even if present trends do not promise much to girls and women of the future, our own ability to also create the future certainly gives us more hope.

The past
The evidence of women’s one time importance when it comes to understanding and creating the future can be easily found in the realm of old and long memories – those expressed in Slav, Greek, Roman, Nordic, Saxon or Indian mythology.

In my own, Slav tradition, there are stories of so called sudjenice (from serbo-croatian word for destiny: sudbina) which are represented as three women in charge of deciding everyone’s personal destiny. They are also known as sudjaje, rodjenice, or rozanice.[18] They arrive when the child is born and decide every particular aspect of her/his future life. Their will can not be changed, but people can try to please them and in that way increase the chances of a positive outcome.

In the Greek tradition, they are The Fates, or Moirae (`cutters-off’, `allotters’), which personify the inescapable destiny of man. Clotho, the spinner, spins the thread at the beginning of one’s life; Atropos, the measurer, weaves thread into the fabric of one’s actions; and Lachesis, cutter, snips thread at the conclusion of one’s life.[19] The process is absolutely unalterable, and gods as well as women and men have had to submit to it.[20] As goddesses of fate, the Moirae `necessarily knew the future and therefore were regarded as prophetic deities: thus their ministers were all the soothsayers and oracles’.[21] The Roman equivalent were Fortunae, or (apparently in the medieval period) three Parcae (`those who bring forth the child’): Nona, Decuma and Morta. Most religious traditions call the Fates `weavers’ and latin word destino means that which is woven. [22]

In the Nordic tradition they are called Norns. There are also three Norns: Urd, representing fate, Verdandi, representing being, and Skuld, representing necessity. Three Norns could change into swans for ease of travel but they could have been usually found near the roots of the ash tree Yggdrasil. Yggdrasil had tree huge roots: one stretched to the underground spring of Urd (earth); the second reached to the well of Mimir, the well which was the source of all wisdom; and, the third went to Niflheim, the underworld presided over by the goddess Hel.[23]

Each one of three Norns knows and is accredited with a particular province: Urd knows the past, Verdandi the present, and Skuld the future. In fact, it seems that the only deity which was especially in charge of the future, is not a deity, but a deitess, Skuld. According to Barbara Walker all of Scandinavia and also Scotland was named after her, Skuld, or `as Saxons called her, Skadi’.[24]

The Saxon Weird sisters also represented the past, present, and future: become, becoming, and shall be.[25] It seems that Norns and their equivalents were based on the great Indo-European Goddess as Creator, Preserver and Destroyer and are in some ways close to the Indian goddess Kali.[26]  Kali also symbolizes `eternal time and hence she both gives life and destroys it’.[27]  Mother Kali continually ruled the Wheel of Time (Kalacakra), where all the life-breath of the world was fixed.[28]  In most archaic traditions, `the deciding of men’s fates was a function of the Goddess’.[29]  Goddesses were also often creators of the universe: for example, in Sumerian cosmogony the ultimate origin of all things was the primeval sea personified as the goddess Nammu – the goddess who gave birth to the male sky god, An, and the female earth goddess, Ki.[30]

Past and present
In patriarchal times the Fates became `witches’: Shakespeare’s three witches were called Weird Sisters (adapted from Saxon tradition).[31]  The Christian church appropriated this ancient beliefs and transformed the trinity of She-Who-Was, She-Who-Is, and She-Who-Will Be into its holy trinity of the Father, the Son and the Holy Spirit.[32]  As God became male so did time, so did the future. Men decided which parts of our past tradition deserved to be recorded[33] and passed onto future generations; they decided which direction we should choose next. From many secret symbols which celebrated the power of women and female principles, the symbol of Venus (representing love and sexuality) was chosen for women. If we try to deconstruct this symbol we can see that its essence is in the cross below, the cross which, especially if surrounded with the circle, has traditionally been the symbol for the Earth. Men’s symbol, the sign of Mars (god of war) has its essence in the arrow: a symbol often viewed as a phallic symbol, as a weapon of war. In the male symbol the arrow is pointed towards the upright direction, which is not surprisingly also how we draw trends and movements toward the future. The present understanding of women is in their role as conservers, deeply rooted in the ground, with their essence in the body. Men are the ones who transcend their mind, and are in charge of the future, as they are the ones who bring about political changes and preach radically new prophecies.

I said it is not surprising that we draw future trends in the same way we draw the symbol for God of war as this is exactly the direction we are heading toward. Each year we face more and more people being killed, especially civilians in wars between countries, and in wars on the streets. We are fighting against `mother Nature’ and against our own, inevitably animal bodies. Our most popular images of the future are the ones of war games, of the future with ever more powerful weapons and ever more powerful enemies. Conquest in the future is as important as the conquest now, and it is both the ultimate conquest of old enemies and battle for life and death with new ones (aliens, cyborgs, mutants, androgynes). This has resulted in the sad fact that, according to the recent UNESCO study, the killer robot played by Arnold Schwarzenegger, or the `Terminator’, `was the most popular character among the world’s children’.[34] The survey, which was billed as the first worldwide study of violence in the media, said 88 percent of children around the world knew Terminator, who was `a global icon’ and that more than half the children – raised in environments of violence – wanted to be like him.[35]

Recent present and the future
Such an idiotic obsession with death, killing and self-destruction has had the impact of awakening worshipers of peace, nature and tranquility. If Raine Eisler is right, time is right for yet another shift in the power battle between the female and the male principle. Women, say Aburdene and Naisbitt, have lately evolved `into a more complex state of wholeness’, successfully absorbing positive masculine traits, and will lead the way to the future.[36]

As a part of this process many feminists have tried to revive the Goddess as a symbol of this power shift. The reason behind the Goddess reawakening is empowerment: as `long as people visualize God as male, women are diminished and inferior’.[37]

But this time it might be much more difficult for the Goddess to express its female principle. For postmodernists, essence as `women’ (or female) and `men’ (or male) does not exist as such any more. In fact there are hardly any criteria left which would suffice to describe two different and opposite genders. Criteria like appearance can be challenged by transdressers and transvestites. Sexual orientation has always been problematic as a criterion since homosexuality among humans has (probably) always been present. Thanks to modern medical science, the natural characteristics of the sexes can be transformed and changed, women becoming men and vice versa. Woman (or man) as a social category is also problematic since any universalist statement about woman (man) can be questioned from the position of epistemological (and group) minorities and different perspectives. The Reawakened Goddess of the Future will have to work rather in a context of future multiple-gender diversities then in the context of traditional female-male polarity.

But this is not the only challenge the awakened Goddess is facing. She ruled in the societies which belong to a totally different historical context. The renewed symbols of Goddesses are also symbols which make much more sense within the context of agricultural societies. The cyclical understanding of time, reclaimed as women’s, as opposed to a linear patriarchal one, has probably resulted from observations about cyclical changes within nature – observations obviously extremely important for agricultural societies. It is difficult to revive the ancient cults of earth and goddess worship in times when less and less women live by the dictums of their own natural cycles, where enormous number of world’s women live in cities, and where reproduction within women’s bodies might soon become obsolete – several thousands years of masculinist rites and gods notwithstanding. Donna Haraway senses this change while declaring she would rather be a cyborg then a goddess.[38]

And our own Norn Skuld does not sit under the secret ash tree any more, but in front of the computer, with her sister Urd.[39] While surfing the Net we can visit `The Sacred Shrine of Skuld-sama’ where we are welcomed to an information resource and place of worship dedicated to Skuld, the technologically-minded young Goddess from ‘Aa! Megamisama’. The Skuld of Today is 12 Earth years old, 150 cm tall, with brown eyes and black hair, while her vital measurements are se-cr-et! She is a second class goddess with limited license. Her domain is still the future but her travel medium these days is water. We are also informed that she likes her older sister Belldandy. And 131’s Ice cream. Besides eating ice cream her favorite activity is to build all sorts of mechanical devices. Her best inventions include Banpei-kun, the anti-Marller defense robot and Skuld’s Own Debugging Machine, a modified rice cooker that specializes in catching bugs in a manner similar to the Ghostbusters’ Ghost Trap. She is still a very strong-willed girls displaying sometimes fiery temper, and is in charge of `debugging’ the Yggdrasil mainframe up in the Heavens, as well as the occasional bug that appears on the Surface. She has her own Image, Music and Sound, Literature, and Movie World Library, her own Desktop Themes (Skuld backdrops, cursors, a game, and more!) and, of course, her own Mailing List.

Women as practicing futurists
However, it is not only in the distant past or in the emerging future that women thought and think about or tried and try to influence the future. Even during the peak of the patriarchy there are some individual women who were trying to change gender relationships. At least, women have always been `practicing futurists’. And they have always been active within the grass-root movements. At the same time though, women did not and do not decide much about the general future. Women’s encounter with the future is reserved for us in order to better care for future generations and present households. Therefore women have to know something about the future, but not too much. They should organize local networks to support global political and economical processes, but should not intervene within the essence of the latter. Even old and traditional women’s activities directed towards influencing the future (through their role of witches or fates) were primarily local, personal, family and community-oriented.

The feminist dictum of the personal being political suddenly gave us the legitimation to bringing what has always been extremely important to us (personal relationships, family, community) into the societal level. For example, the issue of violence against women is less and less considered as a private matter, an event which happens and should remain behind the closed door. Rather, it is seen as a global issue: and the actions in prevention and reduction of violence are therefore being conducted at the world level as well.

The legitimization of `women’s issues’ have created the opportunity for many women futurists to write about not only local but also global futures directions. Many are envisioning radically different future societies and suggesting feminist (or women’s) alternatives to patriarchy. Their images can easily been labelled as utopian: for example, Boulding’s vision of gentle/androgynous society or Eisler’s partnership model/gylany. However, the images brought to us by the work of Boulding, Eisler and feminist fiction writers, utopian or feasible, are extremely important for the de-masculization of the future. Because what we can imagine, we can create.

Elise Boulding, Raine Eisler and feminist utopias
Elise Boulding’s image of the `gentle society’ is an image of a society situated within decentralist (and demilitarized) but yet still interconnected and interdependent world.[40] The creators of the gentle society will be androgynous human beings (she brings examples from history in the images of Jesus, Buddha and Shiva), people who combine qualities of gentleness and assertiveness in ways that fit neither the typical male nor the typical female roles. The coming of the gentle society will, according to Boulding, happen through three main leverage points: family, early-childhood school setting (nursery school and early elementary school) and through community. Boulding believes that both women fiction writers and `ordinary’ women imagine and work in a direction of creating a more localized society, where technology will be used in a sophisticated and careful way to ensure humanized, interactive, nurturant and nonbureaucratic societies. Through women’s triple role of breeder-feeder-producer women can bring radically different imaging and are therefore crucial for the creation of more sustainable and peaceful world.

For Raine Eisler – in our nuclear/electronic/biochemical age – transformation towards a partnership society is absolutely crucial for the survival of our species.[41]  Since today, due to many technological changes, our species’ possess technologies as powerful as the processes of nature, if we do not wish to destroy all life on this planet we have to change the dominator (patriarchal) cultural cognitive maps. In gylany (as opposed to androcracy) linking instead of ranking is the primary organization principle. It lacks institutionalization and idealization of violence and stereotypes of masculinity and femininity. More equal partnerships exist between women and men in both the so-called private and public spheres and there is a more generally democratic political and economic structure. She also envisions gylany as society in which stereotypical `feminine’ values can be fully integrated into the operational system of social guidance.

Boulding’s and Eisler’s imaging of future societies corresponds in many ways to feminist fictions writings. It also corresponds to most grass-roots women’s activities and to women’s involvement within the peace or green social movements. For Boulding, education is one of the most important social institutions, crucial for our future. Similarly, in most feminist utopias, education and motherhood are not only extremely respected, sometimes they are the main purpose for the existence of the utopian society in question. There are also some other common themes in feminist utopias: future societies tend to live in `peace’ with nature and have some sort of sustainable growth; they are generally less violent than present ones; families seldom take a nuclear form but are more extended (often including relatives and friends); communal life is highly valued; societies are rarely totalitarian; oppressive and omnipotent governmental and bureaucratic control is usually absent, while imagined societies tend to be either `anarchical’ or communally managed.[42]

On the other hand, the masculinist colonization of the future brings about images of the totalitarian futures societies, societies with some sort of feudal social organization, and the ones in which the `progress’ is defined in terms of technological developments. Feminist writings about the future might be `naive’ or too utopian but mainstream images are rather evil and dangerous. Some of the elements within feminist imaging of the future are rather reminiscence to the times when gender relationships were more equal – in past agricultural and matrilocal societies. But even with all the recent technological developments there is nothing in the world (except our patriarchal cultural cognitive maps) to prevent us from giving priority to education and parenting instead of to the corporate and military sector. We can use new technologies rather to repair environmental damage then to keep on increasing it. We can use them to improve health and happiness of future generations rather then to steal the future from them. New technologies can also help create the system of direct democracy or connections between World Government and local communities. The Net can enable equal access to social groups previously discriminated because of their dis/ability, gender or race. It can help celebrate, understand and learn about diversity, difference and `the other’ rather then making our songs unison.

The De-masculization of the futures studies
If futures studies were to adopt the work within `feminine’ guiding principles they would most likely put priorities on the futures of education, parenting, community, relationships or health – the real grand issues! The method most commonly used would not be forecasting or trend analyses but rather backcasting – and the work with most disadvantaged groups in order to empower them. Futures research would always have gender differences in mind, from deciding which problems are going to be investigated, to research design, collection and interpretation of data. Futures research would not only acknowledge the pervasive influence of gender but would also be concerned with its ethical implications. [43]

Sometimes it is quite easy to make necessary changes. For example, the sentence `A host of new fertility treatments now enable barren women to have a much-wanted child'[44] should read `A host of new fertility treatments now enable childless couples to have a much-wanted child’. First is the language of the patriarchy, where it was always women who were blamed for the lack of children in the marriage and where the responsibility for child bearing and rearing was solely women’s. The second sentence is more in accordance to present knowledge in medicine about causes and reasons behind infertility – men’s inability to father the child being equally the cause of the problem. It is also the language of potentially emerging egalitarian relationships between genders and societies where parenting and education of children are going to be respected more -both by men and by general society.

The de-masculization of the future and futures studies seems very radical and most likely it will be a rather slow and difficult process. But the change needed is no more radical then the change which transformed Weird Sisters into witches, triple Goddess into Holy Trinity, and Verdandi into Belldandy. The emerging change might be utopian, but it is possible.

Ivana Milojevic, c/o Communication Centre, QUT, PO BOX 2434, Brisbane, Qld 4001

Ivana Milojevic, born in 1967. in Novi Sad, Yugoslavia, now temporarily lives in Brisbane, Australia. Her interest and research are in the area of women’s studies, future’s studies and sociology. She has several articles on issues dealing with gender and the future, including `Learning from Feminist Futures’ in David Hicks and Rick Slaughter, (eds), 1998 World Yearbook For Education, Kogan Page, London; and `Towards a Knowledge Base for Feminist Futures Studies’, in Rick Slaughter (ed), The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, Vol. 3. DDM, Melbourne, 1996.

[1]. Zia Sardar, `The Problem’, Seminar 460, December 1997, pp. 12-19; Sohail Inayatullah, `Listening to Non-Western Perspectives’, in David Hicks and Richard Slaughter (eds), World Yearbook of Education 1998. Kogan Page, London, 1998, pp. 55-69.

[2]. The Futurist, 31(3), May-June 1997, pp. 27-39.

[3]. The Futurist, 30(3), May-June 1996, pp. 34-38.

[4]. The Futurist, 30(5), September-October 1996, p. 59.

[5]. Ibid.

[6]. The Futurist, 31(3), May-June 1997, pp. 27-39.

[7]. The Futurist, 31(5), September-October 1997, p.2.

[8]. Ibid.

[9]. Ibid.

[10]. Ibid.

[11]. Ibid.

[12]. Elise Boulding, Kenneth E. Boulding, The Future: Images and Processes, Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, 1995, p.100.

[13]. George Kurian, Molitor Graham T T, Encyclopedia of the Future, Simon & Schuster Macmillan, New York, 1996, p. 400.

[14]. Ibid.

[15]. The Futurist, 31(5), September-October 1997, p.2.

[16]. Elise Boulding, The Underside of History: A View of Women through Time, Westview Press, Boulder, 1976, p. 781.

[17]. Elise Boulding, Kenneth E. Boulding, The Future: Images and Processes.

[18]. Also narancnici, orisnice (Bulgarian) or sudicki (Czech). Spasoje Vasiljev, Slovenska mitologija, (Slav mythology), Velvet, Beograd, 1996; Dusan Bandic, Narodna Religija Srba u 100 pojmova, (100 Notions in Serbian Folk Religion), Nolit, Beograd, 1991.

[19]. Robert E. Bell, Women of Classical Mythology, Oxford University Press, New York, p. 310; Michael Grant and John Hazel, Gods and Mortals in Classical Mythology, G.& C. Merriam Company, Springfield, Massachusetts, 1973, p. 175. Due to my `broken’ English I was surprised not to be able to find in these books any reference from ancient Nordic or Indian Civilization (I was not surprised there was no reference from Slav tradition as our tradition rarely gets mentioned). Then I saw a book on non- classical mythology and thought: `How interesting, what  contemporary mythology might be?’. My biggest surprise was that I saw references on classic and ancient Indian, Chinese, Nordic, even a little bit on Slav mythology. Only then I realized that only mythology from Greece and Rome deserves the name and the category of classic.

[20]. Robert Bell, ibid.

[21]. Ibid.

[22]. Barbara G. Walker, The Woman’s Dictionary of Symbols and Sacred Objects, Harper & Row, San Francisco, 1988, p. 158.

[23]. Ibid., p. 460.

[24]. Ibid., p. 267.

[25]. Ibid., p. 266.

[26]. Ibid., p. 267.

[27]. Margaret and James Stutley, Harper’s Dictionary of Hinduism, Harper & Row, New York, 1977, p. 137.

[28]. Barbara Walker, Ibid., p. 16.

[29]. Ibid., p.36.

[30].Roy Willis, World Mythology, Henry Holt and Company, New York, 1993, p. 62.

[31]. Barbara Walker, ibid., p. 43.

[32]. Ibid.

[33]. One example is previously mentioned World Mythology, by Roy Willis. Although the author states that `the goddesses of Egyptian mythology are often more formidable than the male deities’ (p. 50) he does not allow them nearly as much space. He also dedicates the special session on `Powerful Goddesses’ (according to the tradition of `Women Question’) only after many pages of description of male Gods.

[34]. The Courier-mail, Brisbane, Saturday, February 21, 1998, p.29.

[35]. Ibid.

[36]. Patricia Aburdene and John Naisbitt, Megatrends for Women, Villard  Books, New York, 1992, p. 262.

[37]. Ibid., p. 244.

[38]. Donna Haraway, `A Cyborg Manifesto: Science, Technology, and Socialist-Feminism in the Late Twentieth Century,’ in Simians, Cyborgs and Women: The Reinvention of Nature, Routledge, New York, 1991, p. 181.

[39]. http:/www.auburn.edu/-weissas/shrine

[40]. Elise Boulding, The Underside of History: A View of Women through Time, Westview Press, Boulder, 1976; Elise Boulding, Women: The Fifth World, Foreign Policy Association, Headline series, 1980; Elise Boulding, Building a Global Civil Culture: Education for an Interdependent World, Teachers College Press, New York, 1988; Elise Boulding, Women in the Twentieth Century World, Sage Publications, New York, 1977.

[41]. Riane Eisler, The Chalice and the Blade: Our History, Our Future, HarperCollins Publishers, San Francisco, 1987; Riane Eisler, Sacred Pleasure, HarperCollins Publishers, San Francisco, 1996; Riane Eisler, `Cultural Shifts and Technological Phase Changes: The Patterns of History, The Subtext of Gender, and the Choices for Our Future’, in Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah (eds.), Macrohistory and Macrohistorians, Praeger, New York, 1997.

[42]. Francis Bartkowski, Feminist Utopias, University of Nebraska Press, Lincoln, Nebr,. 1989; Debra Halbert, `Feminist Fabulation: Challenging the Boundaries of Fact and Fiction’, in The Manoa Journal of Fried and Half-Fried Ideas, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, Honolulu, 1994.

[43]. Judith A Cook and Mary Margaret Fonow, `Knowledge and women’s interests: Issues of epistemology and methodology in feminist sociological research”, in Joyce McCarl Nielsen (ed.), Feminist Research Methods, Boulder, San Francisco, 1990.

[44]. Seminar, 460, December 1997, p. 13.

Alternative Futures of Europe (1999)

Visions from Young People at the University of Trier, Germany

What will Europe look like in the next 50 years? What are the plausible scenarios? Which are  the preferred? A seminar held on June 23, 1999 at the University of Trier at the Centre for European Studies explored these and other questions.  Facilitated by political scientist and Unesco Chair, Sohail Inayatullah, the seminar intended to help participants gain a sense of power over their own personal and collective futures.

Participants were students at the university finalizing their thesis and had undertaken the seminar, titled “Europe in an International Perspective”, to enlarge their perspective of Europe, particularly by seeing Europe through the eyes of other civilizations.

Participants spent three weeks discussing trends impacting the future of Europe. These trends included the aging of Europe, and long term population decline (unless immigration dramatically increased) as well as other trends such as the development of the knowledge economy, genetics and artificial intelligence and the possibility of the collapse of capitalism. Following discussions of these trends – the knowledge base of the future –  participants articulated their own visions for the future of Europe.

Scenarios

Four scenarios emerged. The first was Community/Organic. In this scenario, young people moved away from the chemical corporate way of life and searched for community-oriented alternatives.  Local currency networks, organic farming, shared housing and other values and programs favored by the counter-culture were favored.  The current scare of Dioxin in Belgium (with similar scares in the future even more likely) argued Eric Rieger could lead to quite dramatic changes away from artificial, pesticide and genetic foods, in the longer run, he believed.

They imagined a community household system where goods and services were shared. However, one participant, Sabina Frerichs imagined Europe not within the urban/community dichotomy but saw the entire of Europe as becoming community-oriented. This meant a clear move away from the view that I shop therefore I am  to I relate therefore I am.

This focus on relationship was also central for other participants. Indeed, it was the return to a strong family life that was pivotal in terms of how they saw the future of Europe. Taking care of children – and ensuring that the state provided funds for this – taking care of the elderly, and in general living so that familial relationship were far more important then exchange relations was a foundational value. In contrast to the community scenario, this future was far more focused on the nuclear family – the Family Future. Indeed, efforts to maintain this institution were considered crucial by some participants especially with the rise of genetic engineering, and the possibility of test-tube factories in the not so distant future.  Indeed, while more formal visioning workshops with technocratic experts examine scientific variables, these students asked, “will I have children? How many? How will I spend my time with them?”

Other participants believed that the new technologies would be dominant and instead of resisting them we should rejoice. We should celebrate in artificial intelligence, plastic surgery, gene enhancement, said Nadine Pepe, creating Plastic Europe. Anonymity in fact gives freedom from other; it allows the individual to express herself, while community and family suppress the individual. The new technologies as well promise great wealth, said Martin Valkenberg. Indeed some argued that far more important than family life was single life. It gave choice; it was not steeped in outdated institutions such as marriage. Europe was flexible and it should remain so when it came to formal relations.

A Bright Future?

While these visions were explored, the context was not always of a bright future. One participant, Christina Weiß, argued that oil reserves would certainly run out, and Europe would quickly decline, while Africa, with its plentitude of sun, and eventually solar energy,  would rise. Mass unemployment in the context of Castle Europe – keep the barbarians out – was the likely future. AIDS, Ebola, and many other disasters loomed ahead, said Green activist Jost Wagner.  Eva  Michels added that nuclear technology could also lead to serious problems and new forms of energy were needed.  Unless alternative forms of energy were developed, the future was bleak.

But again it did not need to be, argued Frerichs. The new technologies create the possibility for a network instead of national identity. They allow creativity to grow, and along with more spiritual views of what it means to be human, let humans transcend their narrow limitations.  What Europe could offer, said Asma Nitardy, was its multilingual focus, its vision of a multicultural society.  It was this gift she wanted to give her children, to ensure that they could speak German, Swahili, French, English, and mandarin, for example

The future can be bright, even if many of the trends do not currently look positive, was the overall conclusion of the seminar.

Deconstructing the Year 2000: Opening Up an Alternative Future (1999)

Sohail Inayatullah[1]

How has the year 2000 functioned in discourse?  

To begin to understand how the post year 2000 future can look like, we need to analyze how the year 2000 has functioned in our discourses.

First, it has been an empirical indicator of progress, of the rise of the West. “Two thousand years and still going strong, with every attempt to dislodge the West, having been appropriated” might be the operating slogan. The rise of the West – clearly not predictable a 1000 years ago, with China or the Islamic world far more likely to ascend to world dominance – has occurred for various reasons: because of  military technology (and the willingness to use it),  through more efficient organizations, and through inflows of wealth (conquest and economic colonization). But more crucial has been through liberal ideology, where the image of the melting pot invites all in but always on the terms of the West, most recently specifically on the terms of America. Dislodging the West from its temporal claims, through rescuing one’s own authentic cultural difference, will be problematic since all other views are allowed in. This is the traditional Hindu model (now being challenged by the BJP); there is no need to convert others, since all are hindus. In the American case, everyone wants to go to Disneyland, play American football, watch the baseball world series, eat hotdogs and hamburgers and date blonde cheerleaders.

How could it be different? American-ness has become universally naturalized.  So much so that aspects of Japan, South-East Asia are far more Western than the West itself (and poor copies thereof as well).  Others see themselves through the eyes of Pax Americana – beauty, truth and reality become narrowly defined.  Of course, with the United States set to become the second largest Spanish speaking nation in the world, and with immigration the only likely savior to the rapidly ageing West, multiculturalism appears to be here to stay. The US Army also will be dramatically muslim in 30 or so years (and with many senior US government posts coming from Army leaders, we can well imagine a shift in US foreign policy around 2025). [1] The long-term net result of multiculturalism may be an entirely new set of identity arrangements. In California, where in 30-50 years there will be two distinct classes – a rich white ageing cohort and a younger Hispanic-Asian poorer cohort – the issue will be who will secede from whom. However, what has brought the West to the year 2000 is unlikely to help it continue. This is far more than Spengler’s decline thesis, wherein the evil of the money-spirit leads to the fall. It is liberalism itself, the partial opening of the doors of the West to the “other” which could herald the West’s final days. The right wing has realized this and thus attacks immigration and the other whenever possible. Social movements, the varied nongovernmental organizations too have realized the demographic and cultural shifts underway but construe the limits of the nation-state and the creation of a multicultural planet as part of our evolutionary journey, as a positive step in human evolution.

Another alternative for the West will be genocide. That is, either the West becomes authentically multicultural, disavowing the melting pot metaphor and moving a salad bar or even a global garden of varied flowers – a gaia of civilizations – or it limits intake and is undone by its own economic success. What will result will be an ageing population with no youth to help pay for pensions and to instill cultural and economic dynamism. Alternatively, taking the Roman path, the West could tax the provinces heavily, and when they rebel, send in the military. This, of course, will only hasten the decline.

A final possibility, which is central to the Year 2000 discourse, is to go it alone. This means the creation of an artificial, high-tech society, where few work (thus no need for masses of youth), biotechnology, space-technology, nano-technology, etc, maintain the West’s advantage over others. This is the “museumization” of the other, of culture in virtual space. Authentic transformation, dialogue with other cultures is avoided, since they can be uploaded and intercourse made virtually possible.

This last scenario will solve some of the pressures of the end of the modern world but not all of them. That is, what will result is a rich society living in anonymous space pretending to me in community with each other – not a virtual hell since all emotions will have been selected out – but a passive slow death of success (that is, success as the final step on the ladder of failure).

Which direction the West decides to take as forces for creating 500 nations from our current 180 or so gather momentum will be among the stories of the next 30 years. My preference would be for the 500-nation scenario in the context of a strong world government focused on international and local human rights. The development of this world would be incremental with current steps toward regional and global governance central to this story. While Europe has moved towards integration, other parts of the world are far behind, South-Asia and Africa, for example. However, expansions of size must come out in the context of equity – economic, cultural and epistemic. Merely expanding size for efficiency reasons often continues unfair terms of trade and cultural hegemony. Global governance is possible once regions themselves have a language and identity outside of those defined by the large hegemons.

Second, The year 2000, much like Kennedy’s vision of man on the moon has represented a goal to realize; a high tech, liberal, fair society where the American way can flourish, where hardwork, gusto, and splendid organization can realize anything.

The dark side of “man on the moon” has been the strengthening of the technocratic and militaristic dimensions of the US – the privileging of the military-industrial complex. Even with the new information and communication technologies, command hierarchies are required, any semblance of transparency is lost.  While certainly some large projects are needed for every civilization, the year 2000 functions as a metaphor that counters economic democracy, “small is beautiful” approaches.

What is needed is a mix of large state/global projects, along with a large people’s economic sector, a real market of buyers and sellers of goods, services, information and worldviews. A third layer of the market would ideally be the cooperative layer, wherein those who work, own. Together. Such a three layered system would function as an antidote to the command structures that operate on principles of nationalism and authority.

Third, the year 2000 has represented the future. Defined as the latest technology, the latest gee-whiz solution, the turn of the millennium represents gadgets that will make life easier. What is lost in this particular construction of the future are social technologies, changes in social institutions and management. These are lost partly as they are harder to imagine since they are seen as given (and not human created as with technologies) and partly because each institution has embedded political interests, which make social and political change difficult.

While technology will always be the great seducer, the challenge for an emancipatory futures studies is an unending critique of our social institutions and the creation of new structures that better meet our changing needs.

Fourth, the year 2000 has represented the past. Implicit in it is the mythology of Christian civilization and its prophet. How we time or calendar the world is an indicator of which civilization’s myths we accept.  Using the scientific notation of BCE, before the Common Era, exacerbates this – what is common about it, one can ask? Egypt’s television commercial that plays on CNN International – visit Egypt’s fifth Millennium – is one way to disrupt the universalization of a particular culture’s time.  Aboriginal Australian’s claims that they are celebrating their 42nd millennium serve a similar purpose. As Greg Dening writes in Time Searchers: “For 42 millennia all parts of this land – its rivers, its deserts, its coastal plains, its mountains – have been imprinted with the human spirit. It has been filled … with language. Language encultures the land. Language brushes the land with metaphor.”[2]

Fifth, the year 2000 represents hope. Humanity has survived – nuclear accidents, biological warfare, asteroids have not ended humanity. There is much to celebrate. However, in our joy, we need to ask how much we have participated in the degeneration of hope. Why must we celebrate not becoming extinct? What planet have we created wherein children in the Pacific cannot sleep at night because of French nuclear testing or in South Asia because of domestic politics, and constructing other as the enemy?

The growth data on this last Millennium does look good, though.  Economic growth in the last 1000 years, since the rise of the west, has outstripped growth for the first 1000 years. Since 1820, GDP has grown .96% a year compared to the Middle Ages when it rose .05% a year. [3]What is left unanswered is distribution; the question Marxists have focused on.  We know quite well that the world’s richest people in the world have assets that exceed the combined GDP of the 48 least developed nations, and the world’s 225 richest individuals have a combined wealth of over 1 trillion US$, equal to the annual income of the poorest 47% of the entire world’s population.  We also know that the trend is toward greater inequity with the share of global income between the world’s rich and the world’s poor doubling from 30-1 in 1960 to 59 to 1 in 1989. [4]The number of people living in absolute poverty increases by nearly 25 million a year, and over 40 million people die of hunger-related diseases each year (the equivalent of over 300 jumbo jet crashes a day with no survivors). [5]

Movements from outside the centre have also focused on issues of structural violence, how skewed distribution leads to poverty and misery. Intellectuals in the cultural studies camp have added that knowledge itself is defined by the centre, such that Western hegemony has occurred not only through the conquest of local economies, the secularization and urbanization of rural space, but as well through defining others as less scientific, and more irrational. The year 2000 has remained an important benchmark in this process. The West has owned it.

Futurists have also used the year 2000 but most often uncritically oblivious to the package that comes with that year. Hoping to use the year 2000 as a way to change the present, more often than not, it is the future that has not changed. At least this dimension of futures studies will not be available any more but the codes of progress, of the “future as new” are so deep, that merely a change of sign, of symbol does not mean a change of political structure.  From the year 2000 discourses, we will move to “humanity in the third millennium” hype.

What will change?

Now that it is the morning after, shall we expect the world problematique to change?

First, we should not expect change from reports on the future, from global think-tanks pointing out the world’s problems. These merely continue the litany of everything that can go wrong or of the dramatic new technologies. They create a politics of fear. They do not question the causes behind particular futures, the worldviews that support certain interests, and the grand mythology that provides cultural legitimacy for them. Without such a layered analysis, any attempt to forecast or see the future will be trivial. Damning data will be presented, reports circulated, conferences held but it will be merely an information gathering exercise, with no possibility for social transformation.

Second, while any serious thinking of the future must have a language for transformation, we should not be stupid and forget the deep structures that mitigate against change. The symbols of progress, of velocity (the post-industrial Internet net era), of soft fascism, monoculture appopriating the other (Disneyland), of artificiality (genetics and plastic surgery) and standarization (Mcdonalds) remain dominant.

The future will be driver by technological linear progress, with corporations as the world’s leaders. Instead of the welfare state, distribution will come about through the altruistic behavior of wealthy businessmen. This is Herbert Spencer’s vision, each one of us lives it, breathes it.[6] The recent attack on the welfare state confirms Spencer’s vision of the future.

To merely engage in scenarios of the future without understanding the stronghold of these myths will only result in fantasy futures, preferred images without any basis of possibility

Opening up the future

But are there attempts to open up the future? Unfortunately, most visions of the long-term future remain technocratic. With 2000 now history, 3000 beckons. And it is being defined in the same old terms: linear, space oriented, technological, one culture, man as superior, white as normal. One example is the painting that adorns the walls and website of the Foundation for the Future (www.futurefoundation.org). While otherwise a foundation with some multicultural intentions, its focus on space and genetics continues the colonizing impulse of the year 2000 but now extends it toward the year 3000.  With the year 2000 now history, it will be a mixture of space, genetic and artificial intelligence that will become the defining discourse, the straightjacket of the future. The Internet is already a marketing tool for telecommunication giants, and, it has a clear double-edged nature, i.e. it is chaotic, and could become more so. Biotechnology has become equally corporatized and space exploration will follow suit.

While Johan Galtung and many others have always called on futurists to not be drawn into short term policy analysis, the long long term, when defined within current categories and technologies can be equally oppressive.[7]

Positive signs 

Where to then? Are there positive signs?

Well, first of all we do have an emerging language, ethos of an alternative future. That is, while the likely scenario is the artificial society, there is also the possibility of a communicative-inclusive society, less focused on information per se but more on a conversation between cultures, on authentic civilizational dialogue.[8] While there are certainly limits to dialogue without changes in power relations – economic, military, technological, epistemological, spatial and temporal – still the possibility of listening to how other civilizations see themselves and their futures is now possible. Travel, the net, the economic growth in East Asia, projects within Islam, Indian civilization to recover their futures silenced by external and internal colonization.

Second, the language of rights has also become dominant.[9] While the much earlier battle was to increase the rights of the nobility vis-a-vis the king, rights in the last few hundred years have expanded to include the rights of labour, the rights of the environment, the rights of women, children, and now even parents rights. Rights have become a powerful vehicle for social change because those victimized now have a language in which they can be understood. While certainly slavery continues in practice, as does racism, there is agreement that it is wrong to enslave others and construct others as racially inferior. Rights create new forms of legitimacy, new categories of possible redress.

Third, it is not so much futures studies but future generations studies which personalizes the future, locating it in family and in the real lives of our children’s children’s.[10] While a decision-maker may be less apt to concern himself with futures a decade from now – given the short term nature of electoral cycles – asking him what world he wants for his children changes the dynamic. For example, one can ask a Pakistan leader, shall I put money into nuclearization or poverty alleviation. The first almost guarantees that children generations from now will live in misery; the second guarantees, that they will live. The future must be personalized.

Future generations assert a double vision. As Greg Dening writes of Aborigines and other First people: “The first people had a double vision of their landscape. They could see it for what it really was – rocks, trees, rivers, and deserts. They could see it for what it also really was – their ancestors’ bodies, the tracks of their walking.”[11]

Feminists and others who are not part of the dominant paradigm share this double vision. They function within modernist and postmodernist modes of limited rationality, of consumerism, of hypercapitalism, of patriarchy, of quick time, and they live in spiritual time, slow time, future generations time, in gendered partnerships, in alternative visions of what it means to be human.  It is this double vision that multiculturalism seeks to embrace and enliven by supporting it, by legitimating it.[12]

Fourth, is the language of alternatives to capitalism. While the fundamental question of how and when the capitalism system will transform remains unanswered – the system survives every crash, and even as the financial economy continues to delink from the real economy – the system continues to flourish, expanding globally and temporally.[13]

Even with the next crisis to come when the current babyboomers begin to sell stocks and when there are not enough young people to pay the pensions of the elderly, the system will likely survive by allowing the Third World in. The cost to the system will be multiculturalism and the nation system, but the gain will be the survival and prospering of capitalism.

Still, at the very least there is the language of economic democracy, of corporate accountability, of the quadruple bottom-line (gender, profit, nature and society) and we can add the fifth line, future generations. Little of it is followed, however. For example, in the USA while Congress talks of environmentalism, funding for alternative energy is cut and tax support for oil corporations is increased.[14]

Fifth, globalism, even as it reduces the choices of most, gives us a language that can be used for systemic transformation. Ideally, globalism will move from the globalization of capital to the globalization of labour – its free movement without visa restrictions (a necessary approach if the West is to survive ageing). Eventually we could see the globalization of ideas, that is, the transformation of what is legitimate news and knowledge from the confines of the West.

The final stage is the globalization of security. While most likely this will be NATO-led, in the long run, we can imagine a world security insurance system (for small nations), a real world government, with four levels of governance (a house of non-governmental organizations, a house of corporations, direct voting, and a house of states).  This means the continued porousness of nations, being made less sovereign at all levels – ideational, capital flows, environmental crisis, and in the recent precedent, maltreatment of minorities.  While real-politics remains the guiding ideology behind changes in governance, one cannot underestimate chaos factors and the new technologies. Cyber-lobbying, for example, allows a small group of individuals to spread news for good and bad. Amnesty International and other non-governmental organizations (as social movements and not as Red Cross Band-Aid agencies) can use these technologies to challenge the hegemony of news that large powers have.

Sixth, is the language of action at a distance. Whether this comes from physics of mystics, the important point is that ideas – or more accurately fields of awareness – can transform the world. They do so through rational logic but as well through presence.  The Indian idea of microvita is crucial to this discourse, and even the TM movements flawed experiments on meditation and social peace are an important step in loosening the stranglehold of materialist science.[15] What this means is that information is not merely data but perception at far more subtle levels. It means that who you are, one’s lived life, is open for all to see. While we largely remain officially blind of such a notion of presence, it is that which is most foundational and elusive in changing the world.

What then is the model of the future?

The following criteria are implicit in the Communication-inclusive vision of the future.

1.      Epistemological pluralism – an openness to many ways of knowing, postnormal science using Jeremy Ravetz’s language.[16]

2.      Economies that include growth/distribution and are soft on nature. Ending the development paradigm and moving to an economics based on global labor, human rights, access to power and justice.

3.      Spiral view of history and future, that is, the future is not linear but can turn back on the past to reinvigorate. This means seeing the future outside of the new, allowing for emergence but not making it into a fetish.

4.      Progressive – that is, the dynamic dimension of  progress is crucial but progress  must be rescued from the exclusion of other, that is, seeing others within the terms of those that are economically currently ahead. Progress is needed for visioning the future but not as a tool for subordination. A history of progress must be about inclusion, of rights, as well as of increased economic wealth. Progress also means far better use of more subtle resources in managing our affairs, that is, imagination and spirituality.

5.      Gender balance – gender equality, access to resources, self-meanings. Without ending male dominance, any future will be more of the same.

6.      Ecological balance – living softly with nature – a commitment to future generations.

7.      A spiritual core. Without this dimension, any social justice, environmental gain, merely leads to anomie. It is the spiritual that gives meaning, that provides the sensitivity to touch upon grace, essentially this is about ananda.

Integration after postmodernity

Is any of this likely? First we need to see postmodernity, the loss of a centre, the delegitimation of the Enlightenment project, mission, as a natural end-phase of modernity. Following chaos, there will be a return to a new universalism. Ideally it will be both local and global. Political power will have to be global so as to have some way to challenge local fascisms; the danger, of course, will be a global government becoming another Pax Americana. Economies, however, must be decentralized. Alternatively, the artificial future, where only a few work and the rest of us exist without meaning or hope, remains possible, even probable.

But the “morning after” after the year 2000 means that the ideology of monoculturalism, linear economic growth, technocraticism has lost one of its ideological pillars.  Another pillar that is slipping is the idea of endless growth. Economist Robert Henry Nelson, however, believes that it is this attack on progress, on growth, that has weakened the Enlightenment project, and, from his view, social movements, instead of creating new models of growth, wrongly focus on social justice, environmental rights, and spiritual insight.[17]

As the intelligentsia for hypercapitalism search for new legitimating factors, the challenge in this possible window of opportunity will be for the anti-systemic movements to create visions and practices of a more multicultural society with an alternative economics that is spiritually grounded.

Can it be done? Perhaps.

Will it be done? Yes. Once realized will it be a better future? For the majority of the world, it will be a vast improvement, as they will finally regain their lost dignity. Feudalism, slavery, sexism, and capitalism will disappear from most pockets of the planet. Virtual futures will not disappear nor will space exploration. Exploitation of the other will not be eliminated either but at least it will be minimized. Still, with a multicultural spiritual episteme defining the real, it will be a balanced society, prama, with glimmers of bliss for all.


 

References:

[1] Ayeda Husain Naqvi writes in “The Rise of the Muslim Marine” (NewsLine, July 1996, 75-77) that while

hate crimes against Muslims rise all over the world, surprising the US military is one of the safest places to be a muslim. Indeed, Qasem Ali Uda forecasts that in 20 years, 25% of all US marines will be Muslims and in a 100 years, most will be Muslim. Given the incredible influence that that former military personnel have on US policies (ie a look at Who’s Who in America shows that military background and law school education are the two common denominators on the resumes of America’s most influential people.)

[2] Dening, Greg. “Time Searchers,” The Australian Review of Books (August, 1999), 11.

[3]  Maddison, Angus. “The Millennium – Poor Until 1820,”Wall Street Journal (Jan, 11, 1999).

[4] United Nations Human Development Report 1998, Oxford, Oxford University Press. Summary is from: Horin, Adele. “For Richer … For Poorer, “Sydney Morning Herald, 45.

[5] http: www.nilan.demon.co.uk – Wealth and poverty.

[6]  Inayatullah, Sohail.  “Herbert Spencer: Progress and Evolution,” in Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah, eds., Macrohistory and Macrohistorians. Westport, Ct: Praeger, 1997, 68-75.

[7]  Galtung, Johan. Peace, Vision and the Future in Inayatullah, Sohail and Wildman, Paul,  eds. Futures Studies: Methods, Emerging Issues and Civilizational Visions – A Multimedia CDROM Reader. Brisbane: Prosperity Press, 1998.

[8] For a series of essays that explore this possibility, see, Sardar, Ziauddin, ed. Rescuing All of Our Futures: The Futures of Futures Studies. Twickenham, England: Adamantine Press, 1999.

[9] For more on this, see Inayatullah, Sohail. “The Rights of Your Robots: the Politics of Exclusion and Inclusion in History and Future,” in Ryden, Edmund, ed., Human Rights and Values in East Asia. Taiwan: Fujen Catholic University, 1998, 143-162.

[10]  See the special issue of Futures titled, Learning and Teaching About Future Generations edited by Slaughter, Richard and Tough. Futures. 1997. 29 (8).

[11]  Dening Ibid., 13.

[12] Milojevic, Ivana. “Women and Holistic Education,”New Renaissance, 1996. 6(3), 16-17. www.ru.org

[13] See the symposium titled Beyond Capitalism. Journal of Futures Studies. 1999. 3(2).  It includes essays by Charles Paprocki, John Robinson, Alan Fricker, Brenda Hall-Taylor, and Sohail Inayatullah.

[14] Thompson, Dick. “Capitol Hill Meltdown,”Time. 1999, August, 9, 50-51.

[15] See Gauthier, Richard, The Microvita Revolution in Inayatullah, Sohail and Wildman, Paul. ,  eds. Futures Studies: Methods, Emerging Issues and Civilizational Visions – A Multimedia CDROM Reader. Brisbane: Prosperity Press, 1998. For the TM movement, see their various sites, including: www.kosovopeace.org.

[16] Ravetz, Jerome, special issue of Futures.

[17] Nelson, Robert H. “Why Capitalism Hasn’t Won Yet,” Forbes (November 125, 1991), 104.

Governance in the 21st Century (1999)

By Sohail Inayatullah, May,1999

(A version of this appeared in Sohail Inayatullah and Susan Leggett, Transformating Communication. Wesport, Praeger, 2002)

Five revolutions in how we govern ourselves, in what we consider legitimate government stare at our faces.  These include: a revolution of size, the emergence of global institutions; the globalization of capital;  cyberdemocracy; people’s movements; and the return to an imagined past.

All make the nation-state far more porous than it has ever been. This does not mean, however, that the power of the passport office has been reduced, indeed, as governance changes the boundaries of conventional political life, efforts to maintain tradition will become even more pronounced.

These revolutions are the drivers creating the possibility of a range of different worlds, of different metaphors of governance for the future.

Metaphors of  the Future 

These new worlds include

1. Mountains apart – a world where different interests groups are far apart in their ideals, and have no way to understand each other.

2. Clash of Civilisations, a postnational view of the world where individuals identify more with their cultural and religious roots and less with nation or corporation.

3. Gaia of civilisations, an idealistic vision of the future where we become all interdependent, where the perspectives of ecology and complexity  best describe the future,

4. We are the world, an idealistic vision of unity, of spiritually or electronically linked self-reliant communities,

5.  King of the Hill, a realistic approach to world politics, with the goal that of dominating others before they can do you in. This vision can devolve to feudalism, or kings of many hills, or evolve upward to the emperor of the mountain, the one leader above the planet.

6. Related to this approach is Father Come Back, the Confucian ideal of the wise male ruling other, providing a link between Earth and Heaven.

7. The last approach is that of building bridges, creating a transmodern world where differences are acknowledged, but similarities are sought. It is this vision that in the short term best offers hope for the next century. Former ambassador to Nato, Harlan Cleveland, believes it is this view which he calls Different, Yet Together that will help us find our way in the difficult times ahead.

While these might be general images of the future of governance, to understand which future is most likely we need to investigate the revolutions creating the future.

Size and Power 

The first is the revolution from above – a globalism of size and power. This is the strengthening of regional and global government, and their respective institutions. The most obvious is the European Union. Less successful but equally noteworthy is ASEAN. Related to this revolution from above are international organisations such as  APEC, World Trade Organisation, the World Bank, the IMF, the International Court, the World Health Organisation, International Labor Organisation, and the full range of United Nations organisations.

They are all vying to become more than just a voice of the member states, to move from representing the views of nations to advocating specific positions on how best to manage the transition from nation-states as the main actors to regional blocks and international institutions as the main actors. These institutions impact not just politics but all areas of life, from the regulation of trade, oceans, and climate to atomic energy and space travel.

However, Marc Luyckx, co-Director of the European Commission’s Forward-Looking Unit believes that the most important factor and resource in creating new models of governance is cultural.

Believing that this century heralds the end of the modern nation-centric world based on secular enlightenment ideals, Luyckx, ever the visionary, imagines a transmodern world, where transnational institutions are just one type of governing organisations. He believes that civilisation will be the other, a dramatic revolution from above, which, of course, since civilisation is also about each one of think, eat, see nature, think about business and god, is as well a revolution from below.

But unlike the famous Huntington, who believes that civilisations will be at war with other (the image of the future as that of an unending clash of basic ideals) – Christianity against Islam against Confucianism, Luyckx prefers to imagine, following the Indian philosopher Ashis Nandy, a gaia of civilisations. Civilisations interlocked with each other, engaged in cultural and economic exchange, dependent on each other – a multicultural garden. Nandy as well, even as he imagines this grand revolution from above, believes it will come from below, from the local. Cultures have always existed in dialogue with each other, in plurality, it is especially in recent modern times, that culture has been used to divide peoples, to use the idea of fearing the other as a way to gain power, as Hanson in Australia or Milosevic in Serbia know so well.

Money and Power 

But as important as culture in this revolution from above is business. Corporations have swiftly moved to become economically grander than many nations. Their wealth in players such as GE, Microsoft and the large banks, while appearing to be limited to the private sector, in fact shapes global public policy. So much so that peace activists such as Johan Galtung have argued that a newly arranged United Nations should not only have a house of people, direct voting, and a house of nations, but a house of corporations as well. Such a move would give them legitimate but open power, and institutionalise the private power they already have. Writes David Korten, editor of Yes Magazine that such a change would force corporations to be more democratic and accountable to not just their shareholders but to those whose lives they impact. Any view of the future of governance that does not take into account how transnational corporations impact how each one of us think, well at least what we think about, what we eat (the food distribution channels, what is grown, with what fertilisers), is myopic indeed.

People and power 

The third is the revolution from below – this is a globalism of the people, which often is seen as the opposite of the revolution from above. Indeed, they can be seen as mountains apart, each reflecting some basic urges of humans. Corporate globalism that of creating wealth and people’s globalism that of creating a more sustainable world for future generations, where we walk softly on nature and treat each other with more love and dignity, where relationship is central.

This is very much the ideals of the 1960s, of people’s power, of student power, but now transformed into the local/global politics of international nongovernmental organisations, or ingos. These include groups like Transparency International, Amnesty International, Greenpeace, Women’s International Network, Mothers Against Drunk Driving, People against x, and the thousands of other associations working on consumer, gender, cultural, environmental, spiritual, peace, war, violence issues. They are much more active than the traditional Christian model of charity since they take stronger advocacy positions. Some are single issue, and some have moved from just solving the latest crisis to addressing the deeper causes of crisis, for example, instead of just engaging in a tree planting campaign, asking why peasants in the mountains are cutting down trees, or what the relationship between logging and pollution are? Instead of just asking for more government help in child care, women’s groups contest the division of public/private with men dominating the public and women bearing the burden of the private. Instead of just organising for more women in government, they contest the maleness of industrial politics, seeing statecraft as essentially male-craft.

In Australia, it is claimed that these nongovernmental organisations have greater representation than the traditional political parties. This is so as they approach issues outside of the right/left divide but rather focus on giving individuals and communities more power to change the future. Instead of merely going to one’s representative in parliament and asking him or her to address the problem, they address the problem themselves. These are often called the cultural creatives.

Essentially, while the revolution from above seeks to create a network of international organisations to deal with transnational issues, eventually leading to a world government, possibly by 2050 or so, nongovernmental organisations seek to create a more just, fairer, gender equitable, corporate responsible local world. Of course, as organisations seek, they find that local solutions are global, and global problems are local – the future will see a mix of global/local organisations working simultaneously at both levels.

The guiding model of the future is the vision of we are the world. It is an idealistic vision, which believes that people are essentially good. By joining hands and creating links worldwide, the long dark era of greed and fear can be ended.

What they have not quite figured out is that even as they work against gender discrimination, environmental pollution, materialism and for transparency, multiculturalism, their own organisations are not immune from these traditional and modern problems – essentially the problem of bureaucracy, the battle between ideals and structures of governance. As commentator Eva Cox has written, we need to pay more attention to Max Weber and far less to Karl Marx. Of course, for these ngos, Marx is not the guiding prophet since he saw the world only in terms of capital or labor power, forgetting cultural, women’s, indigenous and spiritual power.

Cyberpower 

The fourth revolution is the electronic revolution – this is a globalism of technology. Less concerned with specific political issues – be they nuclear testing or the melting of the Antarctic – they believe the internet will allow for direct referendum globally on all major issues. Like the idealistic non-governmental approach, the guiding vision is We are the World but the linking agency is the internet not Teilhard de Chardin’s idea of the Noosphere or some idea of the collective unconscious.

James Dator, professor of political science, argues that representative democracy made sense when distance was an issue, when legislators/parliamentarians had to travel by horse and buggy over long distances. Since communication was slow, they had to represent the people, but now the people need not be representative. The technology is there for a world web governance system where each one of us can vote for issues affecting us (and not affecting us as well). The details have yet to be worked out, and of course, the implementation will be stage like. First, there will be cyberdemocracy in the US, Finland, and other OECD nations, and eventually in less advanced nations.  This revolution challenges first not the nation-state but traditional bearers of national governance. Of course, there will be resistance from all parties. Can the people be trusted? How long of a cooling off period should there be for emotional issues (this is Al Toffler’s idea)? Should there be direct voting on all issues or just one issues that don’t deal with national defence and security. And what of those not quite Net fluent or affluent? But more important than these details, which can be worked out, are two other issues. 1. Many people do not want to participate in political life. They want to be left alone. Nice parks, roads and schools are far more important than the grand issues of which civilisations will be in dialogue and which in conflict, or what percent of the national wealth should go to the armed forces and what to the olympic committee. 2. Creating an electronic village will be far less likely than the future of an electronic los angeles, anonymous, face-less communities pretending to be in relationship with each other – Blade Runner here we come.

Certainly cyberdemocracy will be the future, but will the Chinese have the same voting rights as the Americans? While Australia has begun the task of linking remote communities through the internet, for other nations, class/feudalism/wealth remain far grander obstacles to creating a cyberdemocracy. Finally, cyberdemocrats have not quite worked out the difference between good direct governance and the art of leadership, of challenging humans to be more than they can, of giving direction, of wisdom.

Back to the Past 

But there is a last revolution that is uncomfortable to groups engaged in the above three – this is the revolution of not the future, but a revolution of the past. It is essentially about realistic politics, about determining who should be King of the Hill.

Whether it is Pauline Hanson taking Australia back to a world when men were men, when time was slow, when neighbours were friendly, when you clearly knew that the enemy was in some foreign land, and had different eyes than you, or the Taliban taking the Islamic world back to a council of elders, or the BJP in India reinvoking Rama Rajya – the ideal kingdom of Rama, when humans were moral and did their yoga regularly, this is a revolution of a fantasised  past.  It is related to Father Come Back, a model of governance where power is centralised in the strong male. Unity is enforced, and differences are traded-off for strong economic growth.

The revolution from the past is a revolution particularly against multiculturalism, against postmodernism, against genetic technology, against virtuality, against corporatism, against all that changes the stable agricultural world. It is a revolution against anyone who is different, from afar, of all types of globalism. It is a lower-middle class revolution. It does not intend to overturn capitalism or end the nation-state, rather it reinforces the nation-state through the slogan of one god, one leader and one people. The ideal governance structure is not an issue, traditional moral values are. It is a world that essentially returns us to monotheistic religion, to a strong public/private distinction for men and women, to hard work (men in industry and the fields and women in the kitchen) and savings (against speculative trading).

Which Revolution?

Which revolution is most likely to be dominant? Which revolution will change the world the most. Most likely, it will be a complex mixture of interests – a world governance system but probably not a world government; strong global community groups balancing large corporations; virtual governance but not binding, that is, direct initiative and referendum but over-turnable by the executive and legislature. The revolution from the past won’t go away, it will come back in the rise of individual leaders, in luddite movements, in religious fundamentalism. As groups and individuals cannot manage the rate of technological change, some will seek to arrest it, either through non-governmental organisations or through conventional political processes (or through more direct action). The more difficult task of inventing social institutions that can better manage the transition to an advanced technological society will largely be unattempted. However, these institutions must be created, and must be done so in consortiums that include actors in all the revolutions mentioned earlier, even the revolution of the past. It will have to be an approach that Builds Bridges, that negotiates our many differences and creates shared realities. It is a vision of governance that is neither the nationalism of the modern world or the everything goes of the postmodern, nor the traditionalism of the feudal. It is a vision of authentic diversity, working together to create shared realities – and have strong global institutions to monitor what is cultural relativism and what is evil – eventually over the many centuries creating an ecology of identity, where being human first is far more important than national identification.

If we do not embark on this path, we will create a world in the next century that is ungovernable for all of us – where the mix of types of power, levels of authority make a world so utterly chaotic that a king will emerge, and he will desire only one thing – order!

Aging Populations – From Overpopulation to Underpopulation (1999)

By Sohail Inayatullah

As the world welcomes passenger number six billion – symbolically chosen by Kofi Annan to be a baby Bosnian from Sarajevo – the debate on overpopulation heats up. Concern over the carrying capacity of the Earth, resource use of the rich, and fear of billions of “others” at immigration gates consistently make population a high ranking world problem.[1]

Delivering contraceptives to the teeming masses is the solution most often raised. Others point to poverty, seeing population as a development problem, not as a trait of “impulsive races.” Still others go deeper, examining women’s power, their control over the future, their bodies. It is concern for the future, that is, one’s social security, of who will take care of oneself in one’s older years, that is seen as a decisive variable. While most states in India have high birth rates, Kerala does not, largely because feudalism has been overthrown and a stable social security system, a stable view of the future, created.[2]

But, there is evidence that instead of overpopulation it will be underpopulation that will be the world’s biggest world problem, first in the West, and then most likely throughout the world. Only nations that have high immigration in-takes and can make the switch from a youth economy to an old person’s economy will survive. This will mean among the biggest changes in human history – pensions, growth economies, 9-5 work schedules, student/work/retirement life pattern and male domination – all will have to end if we are to succesfully navigate the agequake ahead.

Writes Paul Wallace, author of Agequake, historically “we have been remarkably young. Our average age has been around 20 or less. But in the current generation’s lifetime, the average age of the world will nearly double from 22 in 1975 to 38 in 2050, according to the UN’s latest projections issued at the end of 1998. Under another projection, it could reach over 40 as early as 2040. Many countries will reach average ages of 50 or more.”[3]

Not only is the population pyramid about to flip but populations in Europe are generally poised to plunge on a scale not seen since the Black Death in 1348. “An extraordinary crossover is already starting to occur as older people outnumber younger people for the first time in human history. In the early twenty-fist century, this tilt from young to old will take on a new dimension. It will go hand in hand with the onset of population decline in many developed nations as they experience the first sustained demographic reverse in centuries.”[4]

But this is not just a Western trend, indeed, because of the speed of the demographic slowdown in the developing world, it means that “they will age much more quickly than the West,” says Wallace. In twenty years’ time, China will be one of the most rapidly ageing societies.[5]

The worker to retiree ratio

While many of these changes will be obviously positive, longer life (by mid-century there will be over two million centenarians compared with 150,000 today)[6], healthier life styles, less childhood deaths, and falling number of young people (which means falling crime rates), others are not so positive. Who will pay for the retirement benefits of the older population? This is especially important after 2010 when the ratio of the working age population to old dependents will decrease. And over the next thirty years the ratio of workers to retirees on pension in industralised nations will fall from the current 3-1 to 1.5 to 1. How will societies stay rejuvenated with new ideas? Would we have had a personal computer revolution if youngsters like Steve Jobs were not there to challenge authority and create new products? And what of the Internet.com revolution and the associated changes in corporate culture and organizational culture? Of course, the definition of ageing will change, and older people may become much healthier than they are now, but this does not solve the problem of dependence on the young for economic growth. And what will happen when those purchasing stocks in the 1980’s and 1990’s begin to sell them 20 years later to pay for their retirement? There will be no age-cohort to purchase them as the baby boomers have currently. Will we enter a long term bear market and thus possibly a long term economic depression? Will the demand problem be worsened by the continued delinking of the finance economy from the real world economy of goods and services, of cyberspace from manufacturing and investment space?

But what is the cause of the ageing of society? Two factors. First, we are living longer and second, birth rates are falling. “In the late 1990’s fertility rates are already at or below replacement level – 2.1 children per woman – in 61 countries with almost half the world’s population,“ writes Wallace.[7] And so on, even nations like India and Indonesia are likely to fall below this level.

Along with ageing, there will be a genderquake. In the West, children are being postponed as women focus on their careers, this brings down fertility as there is a strong link between a woman’s age at first birth and the average size of her family. Also many more women are not having children at all. In contrast, leaders in the developed world are urging women to produce more children, Japan is even trying to convince the salaryman to spend more time at home, play with the children, make his wife’s life easier, so she will have more children. While this does not mean patriarchy in Japan is under any threat – structural changes are unlikely – it does mean women’s value will be enhanced.

Iceberg ahead

The population pyramid is reversing. Populations are declining, especially in rich nations. Populations are like supertankers, it takes forever to turn them around, but when they do, the changes are dramatic. Europeans have not noticed the population decline because of immigration, high fertility in the past and declines in mortality, but in reality birth rates are plunging in reverse. Pete Peterson in his book, Gray Dawn, describes global ageing as an iceberg. While it is easy to sea above the waterline, it is far more difficult to prepare for the wrenching costs … that promise to bankrupt even the greatest powers … making today’s crisis look like child’s play.”[8] One solution for the West is immigration. Already California is set to become a majority minority state. The USA will become the second largest spanish speaking nation in 2020. But there are danger signs as generally older Californians will be caucasian and rich, while younger one’s will be hispanic and poorer. The question is not will California secede but which California will secede? Writes, Pete Pederson:

“Perhaps the most predictable consequence of the gap in fertility and population growth rates between developed and developing countries will be the rising demand for immigrant workers in older and wealthier societies facing labor shortages. Immigrants are typically young and tend to bring with them the family practices of their native culture – including higher fertility rates. In many European countries, non-European foreigners already make up roughly 10 percent of the population. This includes 10 million to 13 million Muslims, nearly all of whom are working-age or younger. In Germany, foreigners will make up 30 percent of the total population by 2030, and over half the population of major cities like Munich and Frankfurt. Global aging and attendant labor shortages will therefore ensure that immigration remains a major issue in developed countries for decades to come. Culture wars could erupt over the balkanization of language and religion … electorates could divide along ethnic lines.”[9]

Higher Productivity

A second solution is increasing productivity, working smarter. While the convergence of computing and telecommunications have not shown immediate gains, it is early days yet. The problem of fewer young people working will not be a problem since they will be able to produce more wealth. And even if the Internet revolution does not lead to higher productivity, the real explosion may come from the convergence of genetics research and computing/telecommunications. Productivity could be enhanced through first, genetic prevention, second, genetic enhancement (of “intelligence” “typing speed” “language ability”) and finally, genetic recreation. It is the latter that is is the bet for the right wing in developed nations as this guarantees the survival of a shrinking “white” population (not caucasian since south asians are counted as caucasians in Western statistics), keeps their place as dominant caste. Genetics with nano-technology could go a step further, ending scarcity, and at the same time, ending economic advantage and one of the primary reasons immigrants leave their home nations in any case.

The agequake is predictable since projecting the future age structure of a population can be done with a great deal of certainty (barring asteroids, pandemics, etc). Demographics also can predict changes in behavior since one is more likely to migrate in one’s 20s, one is more likely to vote conservative in one’s 50s (when one has property to conserve, and when one is concerned more with crime and order and less with freedom and social justice). Wallace also points out that membership in one’s generation is significant in determining one’s life chances, but not in the ways one thinks. For example, if you are born in a baby boom year there will be more competition throughout your life, while if you are born in a baby-bust year there will be less competition for work, marriage partners and houses.

Surviving the agequake

How can one personally survive the agequake? Firs, it is crucial to think in the long term, the very long term. Second, it is important to buy and sell in products and services that are based on ageing. Equally crucial is to think in terms of products which baby boomers will be eager to purchase so as to remember their youth – the nostalgia factor .Third, the future will be multicultural, rainbow societies with diverse identities. Already the buying power of latinos in the US is larger than Mexico’s economy.[10] Just as internet stocks took off, in the not too distant future, ageing-related stocks might as well. Retirement homes for retiring babyboomers in developing countries will probably also do well as they will want to move to places where their strong currencies buy more, and where the idea of community still flourishes. It is unlikely that virtual communities will provide the feeling of belonging that elders will need.

Which countries will be the winners and which the losers? Because of immigration the US will retain its power as will England. Because of its relatively young population, Ireland will also do well. However, Gemany and Japan will be losers because of “falling working-age populations.” Indeed, the crisis that Japan is emersed in is partly a crisis of ageing, it no longer has a favorable demographic structure for economic growth.[11]

All this – coupled with advances in genetics, life extension – may lead to a new age. However, not all see ageing as so rosy. Once they make it to old age, currently few people escape long-term health problems. Beth J. Soldo and Emily M. Agree of the American Population Reference Bureau argue that in developed nations such as Canada and the US, as the elderly population grows due to life expectancy gains and the ageing of the huge baby-boom generation, there will be many more sick and disabled old people.[12] The average person is sick or disabled for nearly 80 percent of the extra years of life he or she gains as life expectancy rises. Health expenditure for Australians over 65 is already four times higher than for the rest of the population.

The World Health Organization estimates that by 2020 depression will be the leading cause of “disability adjusted life years“ dramatically increasing the demands for psychiatric health services for young and old.[13] The aged, particularly those removed from family and community, will be especially prone to mental illnesses. In Queensland, Australia the porportion of those over 60 years will increase from 15% in 1995 to 23% in 2031. Already 25% of those over 65 demonstrate functional psychiatric disorders.[14] For ageing to be a bright future not only will society’s economic and social structure have to change but medical developments in life extension will have to materialise, otherwise we will live in a future where the elderly will be sick and marginalized, used on television ads to raise money for charities, just as Third World children are today.

At a macroeconomic level, immigration will solve some of the West’s problems but in-take will have to increase by ten times the current amount and be sustained for the West to survive the the burden of taking care of an older population. In the long run, India, Brazil and other slow-ageing societies will do the best. Worse off will be Russia – and others parts of the former USSR – which is in the midst of a demographic crisis as Russian men are dying in middle age. Russia does not have generations of prosperity to soften the shock of the agequake. However, Russia could take advantage of the new modern information technologies especially as the current generation is being born without the mental blocks of the Soviet era. But for this to happen, mafia-ecomomics will have to end, and a predictable future for investment and shared distribution created.

As the developing world becomes more important, international organizations will, to survive, have to include memberships from these nations There will thus be a new world order, in which an “ageing, sluggish West is ringed by more youthful and economically buoyant countries,“ says Wallace.[15] The UN security council, international finance agencies, security alliances are all likely to see their memberships change. Alternatively Western nations and institutions could decide to go it on their own creating a Fortress/Castle West with “high gates and big dogs.“

Asians will have to change as well, becoming more multicultural. As the age pyramid bulges at the top, filial piety will be one of the first values to go. Young people will want their due since they will be scarce, and there will be too many of the elderly to take care of. The elderly will probably use religion or the state – gerontocracies – to maintain power, while the young will search for new symbols (the Net) and new social movements (alternative modernities, neither West nor East) to lay their claim on the future.

Old versus young

Generational wars is the likely future especially in those nations where pension schemes have not been reformed. In the West, writes Wallace, “The old will use their voting power to insist that younger workers fork out to pay for their pensions. But the young will resist with their economic power by pushing up real wages for services that the old have to pay and evading contributions wherever possible, so that the gap between the legitimate and the black economy grows even wider.”[16] Medicare will continue to be severely challenged. Non-essential medical services will be shifted away from the https://j-galt.com/klonopin-1mg/ State. In the long run, there might be a return to childrearing as patriotic duty, of course.

Reforms will be needed. Reforms will have to tackle the fundamental mismatch between people’s desired mix of work and leisure and what is actually on offer in the workplace. The present system crams work into people’s middle years, making children even more of a burden – so helping to create the agequake – while creating a surfeit of leisure in later years. Women are heavily penalized if they want to work part-time to enable them to look after their children, while older workers are not usually offered a reduction of working hours in their fifties and sixties. For their part, older workers are not generally prepared to accept lower earnings, even if this reflects the reality of their declining productivity.[17] We are accustomed to the elderly increasing in stature, in wisdom, since historically so few have survived, but with this about to turn over, wealth and wisdom is unlike to correlate with ageing.

While some policymakers are beginning to consider the future needs of the aged – housing, transport (the aged like youth tend to have more accidents), healthcare – recognizing that most likely these systems will be severely taxed, few have begun to understand that the entire current economic and cultural system has been based on young people working, on a normal population pyramid, on a growth-oriented economic system. We have never seen a society where the pyramid is flipped. Will immigration save the day, or will technology, the Net, Genetics or Nano (making labour far less important)?

To survive the agequake, our basic structures of work/leisure/family structures will have to change. The old pattern of student, work, retirement, death will have to transform, more flexible patterns will have to be set up to combine work and play, and the rearing of children, that is with taking care of society’s demographic future. While this will be one aspect of the needed change, in fact, the entire (endless growth) capitalist system will have transform, nothing less will be able to adequately resolve the tensions ahead.

We have historically lived in a world where the average population was young. This is about to reverse itself. The entire industrial and postindustrial system has been built on certain demographic assumptions of when we work, when we reproduce, when we retire; this is all changing, and we are not prepared.

____________________

Sohail Inayatullah recently turned 42 He is a political scientist/futurist, co-editor of the Journal of Futures Studies and New Renaissance and author/co-editor of ten or so books. In 1999, he is professor, International Management Centres, Unesco Chair, University of Trier, and Tamkang Chair, Tamkang University. He is currently editing a book titled Youth Futures – s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au.


[1] See, for example, www.overpopulation.com or
[2] For a review of some ageing scenarios, see: Edward Schneider, “Aging in the Third Millennium,” Science, (Feb 5, 1999 v283, 5403), 796.
[3] Paul Wallace, Agequake, Riding the Demographic Rollercoaster Shaking Business, Finance and Our World. London, Nicholas Brealey, 1999. From the preface.
[4] Ibid., 3.
[5] Ibid., 4.
[6] Ibid., 20.
[7] Ibid., 5.
[8] Peter Peterson, Gray Dawn. New York, Random House, 1999. Also see: http://webhome.idirect.com/~carcare/thoughts/aging.htm. Peterson writes: A little understood global hazard – the greying of the developed world’s population – may actually do more to reshape our collective future than deadly superviruses, extreme climate change or the proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons.
[9] Peter Peterson, “Gray Dawn: The Global Aging Crisis,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 1999, 42-55.
[10] Wallace, Agequake, 10. Also see, The Economist, America’s Latinos. 25 April 1998.
[11] Ibid., 172-180.
[12] Beth J. Soldo and Emily M. Agree quoted from the USA Population Reference Bureau’s bulletin, American’s Elderly in Cheryl Russell, American Demographics, March 1989 v11 n3 p2(1).
[13] See, WHO, See as well: The Global Movement for Active Ageing. http://www.who.org/ageing/global_movement/index.html
[14] See Ivana Milojevic,
[15] Ibid., 204
[16] Ibid., 211.

[17] Ibid., 218.

Will Our Children Have Jobs in the Future? (1999)

Youths have no future, but there are ways in which we can create jobs and hope with them, says Sohail Inayatullah.

“Why should I care about the future,” says Mark Stuart. While only 25, he has seen most of his childhood friends killed off from heroin and violence.  Most, especially the males remain  underemployed  and work, if at all, in the informal economy.

But while the death certificate might say heroin, others such as Richard Eckersley, of the CSIRO and editor of Measuring Progress , believe that it is because Australian youth have lost hope in the future that they are dying off. Eckersley writes that most young people believe that the 21st century will be even worse than the 20th.  Few believe that life in the next century will be better for Australians. Jenny Gidley, a social psychologist at Tweed and co-editor of book on the future of the university, concurs. She says: ” The majority of young Australians researched over the last decade about their views of the future are pessimistic and fearful and furthermore most are disempowered by their lack of hope”.

Francis Hutchinson, senior lecturer at the University of Western Sydney, Hawkesbury in his research of Australian teenagers found that: “negative imagery of the future ranged from perceptions of intensifying pressure and competition in schools in the twenty-first century to worsening trends in physical violence and war, joblessness and poverty.”

Failing the Young

Paul Wildman, a former Queensland Department of Labor director, now working in the area of   pprenticeships and traineeships believes our government has failed them.  We, as a society, have not been able to give them hope.

Wildman, however, is not a bleeding heart liberal. He sees Australia in need of ‘comfort terrorists’ those who can draw us our from the complacency of baby boomer middle age and help us see there is life than fast food, the GST, football and a new 4WD.  He wants the state to be responsible for improving our childrens’ life options so that they can empower themselves. He wants shared responsibility for our youth’s futures by government, community, family and the youths themselves.

Merely giving the future to young people does not work. As faulty, however, are market driven programs which do not provide training or real job prospects to them, warehouses our youth merely giving them the illusion of making money yet not giving them an opportunity to make their future mean anything.

Rescuing the future

Wildman and others suggest the following that need to be done to rescue our youth’s future. They are:

  • Electors must take responsibility to hold Government to a comprehensive ‘youth job compact’ response to unemployment that goes beyond training and offers all school leavers a chance to make a positive future for themselves through an options of  employment: private, community, public, self or study.   A compact goes beyond, yet includes, training.  It is two- way agreement that includes rights and responsibilities and not a handout or ‘sit down money’.
  • An end to duplication in training and employment bureaucracies and jurisdictions between the state and commonwealth so  that an apprenticeship in the Kimberleys means the same as an apprenticeship in Hobart.  Monies saved could be directed into ‘job compact’.
  • Getting beyond ‘inquiry-led’ initiatives.  The inquiry waits till the system breaks down then costs millions of dollars and produces myriad of conclusions and recommendations which need the very bureaucracy that caused the problem in the first place to execute the changes. Indeed, the inquiry often frames the problem in limited legalistic language, never working with young people and employers to create a conversation about meaningful futures. Since the inquiry is bureaucrat let, no change results.
  • Use the ‘Self help’ model. Assist young people to generate their own future including employment opportunities, for example, building their own sustainable housing/communities and group businesses.  This is the thrust of the work of Katoomba community organizer Alex Bowman. He believes that instead of the dole, give young people a right to land. Let them grow food, and create self-reliance producer and consumer cooperatives on this land.
  • However, for those who prefer to stay in the city, we need an urban planning approach that sees employment designed into a suburb just as roads are today. Jobs must be part of the design process not as something that happens afterwards.  The Greenfields Model intended in the Gold Coast hopes to that.

However, Wildman says that  in “in the final analysis we also need to realise not everyone will get jobs so as a society we need to use these initiatives to move away once and for all from seeing the only option for youth, and middle aged retrenchees, as full time work.”

What this means this means is realising that employment levels are likely to be much lower in the future and there simply wont be enough jobs to go around.  Says Wildman, “we need to move from ‘dole bludger’ to ‘multiployee’ where several part time jobs are matched with some public assistance to give the equivalent of a full time job and therefore a chance to make their future meaningful.

For Bowman, this can happen only when land becomes the base for rejuvenating the dreams of  young people. Land grounds young people in community, it connects them, and gives them power over their future.

“The key to a better future for youths, “says Wildman  “is shared responsibility. Otherwise, we’ll just create another bureaucracy, another iron cage.”

Currently, young people look to the future and see nothing.  Wildman wants them to see hope, work and the possibility of a fair-go. As Gidley says: “Recent research has also shown that when young people are encouraged to develop their imaginations and are educated with a positive values system and a sense of integration rather than fragmentation, then they are empowered by this”.  Without some of the changes outlined, Australia will continue to have the distinction of one of the world’s highest youth suicide rate.

The deeper problem

But there is a deeper problem that Jeremy Rifken in his classic book The End of Work has identified. Unless there is a sustained global depression, in the long run the most likely future is that of a jobless slow growth, where 20% work and 80% do something else.  Training, job compacts and other solutions while important for the next 20 years, offer little for the long term. In that horizon, the real challenge will be seeing ourselves as more than  workers. It is thinking of our futures in post-scarcity terms, discovering and creating that “something else.” Unless we can think of ourselves outside our historical work identities, we will enter a future world where the one thing that has defined us, not just the job, but work itself, won’t be available.

Are our identities flexible enough to survive? Can we work with youth to create futures that are meaningful for them, can we create a new history for future generations? Jenny Gidley, social psychologist and youth futures researcher, believes we can. She says that it is not just jobs at issue but the failure of imagination. What is need are visions workshops, as part of a new educational system, to help transform negative images to positive images.