Islamic Civilization in Transition (2002)

Sohail Inayatullah

Abstract:

Islam can be seen as a counter discourse to globalization, to the expansion of economic space and the fulfillment of the dreams of the social darwinists. However, even as Islam attempts to create new possibilities for globalism, national politics doom it to a politics of reaction, of reducing diversity and innovation. This is especially perilous as the next phase of globalisation promises to end historical notions of reality, truth, nature and sovereignty. In this dramatically changed world, Islam can join with other counter discourses to create a moral vision of a planetary society, an alternative vision and reality of globalization.

Countering Globalization:

At one level, Islam can be seen as a counter-globalisation[1] in that globalisation – at least in its dominant face – is essentially about expanding the economic circle in our lives at the expense of the social, the spiritual and the cultural. It is the expansion of the world capitalist economy into every sphere of our lives. It is also the continuation of social darwinism, that the fittest – the most entrepreneurial – should lead the world. Finally, globalism continues the ideal of progress, of creating the perfect society, the positivist/scientific world, of forever removing religion and irrationality from human history. The latest technology that promises to deliver this future is germ-line engineering, creating a world of flawless human beings. But in whose image of perfection will these individuals be created in? Certainly not Islamic notions of the good, rather, they will continue in technocratic and western definitions of health, beauty and intelligence.

In this move to hyper-globalization, the Islamic world stands both as an imagined past – feudal, low-tech – but also as a civilization based on an alternative distinction between the public and the private, between individual space and collective space and between the secular and the religious.

However, globalization – if we ask not what is globalization but which globalization – along with the globalization of economy and the globalization of technology (its acceleration) also consists of: (1) the globalization of awareness of the human condition (of hope and fear); (2) the globalization of responses to market and state domination (the emergent global civil society of transnational organizations); (3) the globalization of governance (both below and above); (4) and, finally globalization is both the expansion of time (creating a discourse of the long term future) and its elimination (creating the immediacy of space).

In this more exhaustive definition of globalization, where stands Islam? Islam in these globalized worlds, defined more eclectically, is first about an alternative to the Western project, that is, a promise of a more spiritual society based on a the unity of thought, of an alternative epistemology, an alternative notion of science and political economy.

Islamic Paradigm:

Generally this alternative paradigm as articulated by various Muslim writers consists of the following:[2]

There are ten such concepts, four standing alone and three opposing pairs. Tawheed (unity), Khalifah (trusteeship), ibadah (worship), ilm (knowledge), halal (praiseworthy) and haram (blameworthy), adl (social justice) and zulm (tyranny) and istislah (public interest) and dhiya (waste).

Tawheed articulates the larger Islamic unity of thought, action and value across humanity, persons, nature and God. Khalifah asserts that it is God who has ownership of the Earth. Humans function in a stewardship, trustee capacity, taking care of the Earth, not damaging it. The goal of the Islamic worldview is adl, social justice, and it is based on the larger needs of the people, istislah. To reach these goals, ibadah, worship or contemplation is a beginning and necessary step. From deep reflection, inner and outer observation, ilm or knowledge of self, other and nature will result. One’s action then are halal, praiseworthy and not haram, blameworthy. Moreover with this framework, dhiya (waste) of individual and collective potentials is avoided as is zulm, tyranny, the power of a few, or one, over many, or the power of a narrow ideology over the unity within plurality that the Islamic paradigm advocates. The science that emerges from it is not reducationist objective but synthethic and values based, focused on an emotional commitment to understanding Allah’s world.

While the above presents an alternative paradigm of Islam, it is the vision of an ummah, a global community of believers and non-believers that defines this alternative globalism. At heart, Islam desires to reintegrate the individual as part of the natural order. While Western civilization has come to life in long drawn out battles against the tyranny of royality (from the Magna Carta to the Glorious English Revolution) for muslims it has been the most recent battles againt colonialism and imperialism that has unleashed a humanistic spirit. The vision of the ummah, writes jailed muslim leader, Anwar Ibrahim, “must be able to transcend cultural specificity [and] inhabit the realm of universal ideas.”[3]

This means that the vision of the Ummah must draw on the cultural resources from Islamic history using them to engage with other civilizations through inclusive dialogue. However, the universal must be stated within evolutionary terms, as part of the human unfolding drama.

But behind this idealism lies the current reality of an Islam, that while dramatically increasing in numbers, is decreasing in conceptual unity,[4] decreasing in its viability to create a new politics and economics, indeed, culture, that is, while muslims trust in Allah, they are not doing enough to tie their camel – to become culturally and technologically innovative.

Writes muslim scholar, Munawar Anees: [5]

Perpetuation of despotic rulers, such as Mahathir in Malaysia, is achieved through a systematic corruption of the civil, judicial and the police departments. The invertebrate state-controlled media serve the self-fulfilling prophecy while anti-Semitic slander with sham retractions is not uncommon for sleazy political gains. Greedy multinationals and the Western corridors of power are clearly reprehensible for propping up these client regimes as their economic and political mercenaries.

Given the intellectual bondage and political and economic subservience of the Muslim world to the West, prospects for the future, either programmed or desired, remain gloomy. There seems to be an inexplicable fatalism that continues to envelope the Ummah – the global Muslim community. It has ceased moving from opinion to knowledge. And employing knowledge for social evolution. In the footsteps of the Prophetic Tradition – beside trust in the Divine mercy – are not Muslims required to tie up their camel?

Can muslims, asks Zia Sardar, recover the dynamic principle of ijtihad – sustained and reasoned struggle for innovation and adjusting to change – that has been neglected and forgotten for centuries? [6] Can Islamic civilization avoid the future being programmed by globalization and create an alternative modernity, that is, not destroy tradition but adopt it critically, challenging feudalism and patriarchy and authoritarian knowledge politics, and creating a world, modern, but different from the West?

The possibilities are mixed. With the ascension of the West, muslims have internally adopted the Orientalist codes, seeing themselves not through their own historical eyes – gaze – but through the lenses of Western categories. What results then are imitations of the West, instead of multiculturalism or anti-West rhetoric for local power politics. The strength of globalization in terms of shaping the world economy as well as world culture – the politics of idea production, how Hollywood movies shape world notions of self – do not bode well for other cultures (except in exoticized or museumized forms).[7]

Technology transforming modernity:

But as we venture into the future, globalization is not just about expanding economy and technology as well as the dialectical responses of civil society and reflexive awareness but also about dramatic changes in the nature of reality (through virtualization) in truth (through challenges from postmodernism and multiculturalism) in the nature of nature (from genetics particularly germline engineering as well as from feminist/poststructural thought) as well as sovereignty (making the self and the nation-state far more porous than the legacies industrialism has given us). Within these frames can we still imagine not just a vital Islam but any Islam? Or is Islam likely to be left behind by .com fever and the new economy (virtualization), by genomics (the end of the natural), by the relativization of newtonian stability and globalized economics (and international organizations and corporations spearheading the end of ideology)?

Virtualization will challenge all religions as it contests historical definitions of reality. Computer games are already a larger revenue industry than films and the trends are that this will keep on increasing. But there are significant problems ahead. First, virtualization leads to social isolation, which leads to depression, which already in 1990 accounts for five of the ten leading causes of disability. Psychiatric conditions are expected to play an even greater role in the global burden of disease in the future, becoming in 2020 the leading cause of the loss of life years. [8] Virtualization is likely to further fragment the western self, creating the desolation of postmodern anomie.[9] The lack of access to the Net may prove not as disastrous as it appears now – communication, and not merely solitary information transfer – will remain important in the Islamic world. This relates to the second problem. Virtualization further weakens social ties, community (even as new net communities are created). Again, for the Islamic world, with less net access, this may prove a boon. However, as the Islamic world opens up to the net, we should expect individualization. The personal computer revolution may also create spaces for software that reduces the interpretive authority of mulllahs. For example, by placing the Quran on cdrom, direct access to interpretation will be possible. This expansion of knowledge democracy could be one factor in challenging the dominating feudal structures in the Islamic world. It could also help create an alternative cyberculture, modern, but differently so from the hegemonic West. This alternative culture would be one that allows group experience of virtuality, thus creating new realities, innovation without the loss of the family orientation of Islamic culture.

For the Islamic world, the challenge will be to – as with the adoption of all non-indigenous technologies – to appropriate and use ICTS and their future developments (web-bots, the always-on, wearable computers) without being used by them, that is, to use the net to unleash local innovation without succumbing to the dark side of cyber futures.[10]

But a greater challenge than virtuality will be the end of the natural through developments in genetics. Cloning, gene therapy and germline engineering all contest evolutionary views of what is natural – that is, humans preselecting genetic dispositions, characteristics. The slippery slope from genetic prevention (reducing the probability of developing certain diseases) to genetic enhancement (height, “intelligence”) to new species creation will be quick and almost unstoppable within current globalized and technocratic science. While this will challenge all religions, religions of the book, derived from stories of Adam and Eve will be especially made problematic. Buddhist and other Indian perspectives with far more liminal views of self, will find negotiating an artificial world far easier. The works of Indian philosopher P.R. Sarkar are especially instructive in developing a spiritual perspective of new technologies.[11]

The muslim view of gene therapy is generally best described by Munawar Anees and Abdulaziz Sachedina: Anees writes:[12] gene therapy (not to mention cloning) transgresses everything that Islam is about, about what is natural and what is wrong.

Adds Sachedina: [13]

In Islamic discussions in eugenics, there is almost a consensus among Muslim scholars that it “having better rather than worse genes” does not play a part in the recognition of the good qualities of human beings; it is something that is designed by God, and therefore, it should be left to God, so there is no incentive for the improvement of the genetic composition of individuals to increase the value of that individual. Rather, the value of the individual depends on faith. …

… There is no encouragement of any kind to improve genetic composition through any kind of surgical or any kind of medical or choices to the marriage decisions; rather, the will of God is regarded as the one that really creates human beings the way there are, and there are potential improvements within that if faith is maintained, if moral and spiritual awareness are maintained within the life.

These new technologies pose the most dramatic problems for those who consider the natural as fixed instead of as constantly changing and in the process of recreation. Strict traditionalists (those who do not take a dynamic view of knowledge, wherein ijtihad (reasoned judgement) gives way to taqlid (blind imitation), in particular, will find the next twenty or thirty years the best and worst times. The best because the forces of tradition will flock to them; worst because the technological imperative and humanity’s struggle to constantly recreate itself and thus nature will not be easily forced back. For the Islamic world to survive, it will not only need to debate these technological developments but articulate an alternative science.

For religions in general, there are three possibilities.[14] First is the return to an imagined past with strong feudal and male structures, identity defined by in-group exclusive bonding. Second is to adapt to the future by seeing the past as metaphor, as a story to ethically guide oneself. The latter may become far too fluid for most leaders, however, over time, a new layered religious framework may develop, that is, integration at a different level. For individuals, too, a similar choice remains: return to an integrated but exclusivist self or create a liminal constantly changing self. This postmodern self, the salad bar theory of pluralism, may lead to total fragmentation or alternatively may, as Sarkar argues, create a layered, neo-humanistic self that moves beyond ego (my way is the only way), family (concern for only my future generations), geo-sentiment (my land, territory), socio-sentiment (my religion or race) as well as humanistic sentiment (humans above all), that is, a dynamic, layered inclusive self with incorporates other humans as well as plants and animals. A neo-humanistic self thus moves through the traumas of ego, territorial nationalism, exclusivist religion, racism as well as speciesism entering the universalistic transcendental.

Sovereignty:

Combined with virtualization and geneticization is breakdown of sovereignty. While the passport office remains threatening, capital is now free to roam, as is pollution. Governance too has moved to world levels with the institutionalization of world organizations around activities of health, climate, economy, refugees, to name a few. However, while capital and state have expanded, the peoples sector has challenged its domination. Non-governmental organizations have been quick to pick up the slack when transnationals refuse to observe triple bottom line accounting measures (profit plus social responsibility plus environment). The internet too has challenged national sovereignty with cyberlobbying quickly becoming a new form of local/globalist politics, forcing states to be far more transparent than they would like to be. Governments that have resisted this have found themselves losing propaganda wars. Still, the revolution from the past – of feudalism, of control and command structures, as practiced by many nations claiming themselves to be Islamic – have not disappeared. Indeed, while individuals may have transcended geo- and socio-traumas, nations use these traumas to shore up identity.

SCENARIOS

What then of the future. What futures will these transformations lead to? Four scenarios are probable.

Artificial Society:

The first is the artificial society where the victory of liberal ideology, the science and technology revolution make states far less potent. Islam as currently constituted would not play a role in this future, nor would most nations. It would remain a fast growing religion but only in terms of population and not in terms of defining the agenda for the next century. The population of believers would be poor and angry, searching for someone to blame. Local leaders would be quite willing to play the extremist card convincing believers that by returning to the past, they would be safe from globalization. The losers would be the most vulnerable – women and minorities as well as modernist muslims.

However, there will be plenty of the poor to draw on to challenge the system.

Writes Lydia Krueger:[15]

While the income gap between the fifth of the world’s people living in the richest countries and the fifth in the poorest was 60 to 1 in 1990, up from 30 to 1 in 1960, it has risen to 74 to 1 in 1997. The same development of global polarization can be described looking at wealth and poverty in a different way: While there are still 840 million people malnourished and 2.6 billion people have no access to basic sanitation, the world’s 200 richest people more than doubled their net worth in the four years to 1998, to more than $1 trillion – with the assets of the top three billionaires alone surpassing the combined GNP of all Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and their 600 million people.

Is this likely to change?

In 1993 just 10 countries accounted for 84 percent of global research and development expenditures and controlled 95 percent of the US patents of the past two decades. The dye is set, technocracy will further create a divided world, with the right to the net and the right to genetic therapy and modification becoming the battle cry of the next decades.

Setting up walls against technology will be the easiest path for Islamic nations. Far more useful would be to develop technologies based on Islamic science – that is science and technology focused on problems in poorer areas as well as science and technology that was nature-based, what has been called nature-oriented technologies.

Dialogue of Civilizations:

But instead of the artificial society, there are moves for a pluralistic dialogue of civilizations. Not a clash (as this merely transposes realistic politics on civilizational theory) but a deep dialogue of ways of knowing, of understanding that we can longer export our problems to other, be they weaker nations or the environment. This holistic view of the world challenges realist notions of power and examines the future from the margins, from new models of organizational cooperation (as with Net companies that are far less patriarchal and hierarchical). An enlightened Islam that instead of projecting its own defeats on the West and instead finding compassion for all human suffering can provide a model of this alternative future.

What this means is the creation of a world community around shared ideals. In postmodernity’s decentring of the world, space has been created for civilizations to articulate their own self-images. Of course, the framework remains Western and secular but the multicultural ethos now even challenges postmodernism .

For the Islamic world, what in detail would such a future look like, mean?

Ummah as an Interpretive Community – a preferred future

First, Ummah as an operating framework for the future challenges the three world thinking of first, second and third worlds.[16] As a concept it means three things: (1) The Ummah is a dynamic concept, reinterpreting the past, meeting new challenges and (2) the Ummah must meet global problems such as the environmental problem. “The Ummah as a community is required to acknowledge moral and practical responsibility for the Earth as a Trust and its members are trustees answerable for the condition of the Earth. This makes ecological concerns a vital element in our thinking and action, a prime arena where we must actively engage in changing things.” [17] (3) The Ummah should be seen a critical tool, as a process of reasoning itself

To create a future based on the Ummah equity and justice are prerequisites. This means a commitment to eradicating poverty. It means going beyond the development debate since development theory merely frames the issue in apolitical, acritical language.

This means rethinking trade, developing south-south trade as well as “new instruments of financial accounting and transacting … and the financing of new routes and transportation infrastructure.”[18] But perhaps most significant is a commitment to literacy for all. As Ibrahim writes: “Only with access to appropriate education can Ummah consciousness take room and make possible the Ummah of tomorrow as a personification of the pristine morality of Islamic endowed with creative, constructive, critical thought.”[19]

Thus what is called for is not modernism but a critical and open traditionalism that uses the historic past to create a bright future – a post-asian and postwestern dream. But Ummah should not become an imperialistic concept rather it requires that Muslims work with other civilizations in dialogue to find agreed upon principles. We need to recover that historically the Ummah meant models of multi-racial, multi-cultural, multi-religious, and pluralist societies. A true Ummah respects the rights of non-Muslims as with the original Medina state.

However, as possible is a future without any name, a future of Islam but no muslims, that is, a future with continued struggles between factions in the Islamic world and between sects with the West continuing its millennium struggle against its projected other. A bright future is possible but not certain.

What will the West do?

While the idealist vision of an alternative more pluralistic softer Islam remain, one that is future-oriented, ecological, community-based, gender equal and electronically-linked, we are struck with not an attempt to imagine a new politics for the Islamic world but to offer imagined histories. Moreover, attempts to create alternatives remain mired in strategic politics as with the Iranian revolution – in fighting for survival space – or with creating a fortress to stop globalism as with the Taliban.

But dramatic changes in the nature of reality, truth, nature and sovereignty bode not well for the West as well. Indeed, if we add the dramatically ageing population to this mix, the future of the rich nations is in peril. With an entire age-cohort of youth workers not available – with the median age moving from 20 to 40 and the ratio of worker to retiree slipping from 3-1 to 1.5, what will the West do?[20] It can dramatically enhance productivity thus eliminating the need for labour and immigration or it can create new species of humans, or at least through eugenics ensure its own genetic stock through eugenics. The seeds of eugenics are not outside of Western history but squarely with Darwin. “We civilised men to our utmost to check the process of elimination; we build asylums for the imbecile, the maimed and sick; we institute poor laws; an our medical men exert their utmost skills to save the life of http://aic.org.uk/viagra-generic/ everyone to the last moment. Thus the weak members of civilised societies propagate their kind. No-one … will doubt that this must be highly injurious to the race of man,” wrote Darwin. [21] The relaxation of natural selection was leading to genetic deterioration, to a large number of children of the “scum.”[22]

Alternatively it can allow the other into its shores and create multicultural societies. But authentic multiculturalism challenges the sovereignty of the nation-state at its roots, as does globalization. Once in, there is no way back. Globalization thus sows its seeds for a planetary society, or a return to brutal tribalism.

At heart then the issue is not merely the future of the Islamic world but the future of the entire world. Can we move to a gaia of civilization, an interpenetrating dialogue of traditions where the damage of five hundred years of the victory of the West is undone and the ways of knowing suppressed to achieve hypermodernity are tamed?

Can we create a postwestern view of the future? At the very least to do so, we will need to imagine a future that integrate ideational and sensate civilizations; integrates linear notions of progress with cyclical notions of time; integrates economic growth with distribution; imagines identity not only in the postmodern sense of fluid selves but in a layered neo-humanistic sense where identity moves from the most concrete to the most expansive and subtle.

Does humanity have the wherewithall to do so? The signs are mixed. Just as the expansion of human rights continue, the battle of local and national leaders to hold on to privilege strengthens. Nationalism becomes a method of reducing some of the excesses of globalization but it does so at an incredible cost, creating a politics of identity that is generally culturally violent.

The dream of a good society, a postnational world, has not gone away, however. Globalism pushes back moral space but it does not vanquish it. The hope of Islam –in dialogue with other civilizations – its offering to the future, is essentially about that, asking what is the right future for us, how can we make sure to include the ethical in all our decisions, in our magical ride to the stars, to cloning, to creating a global governance structure. In this sense the hope of Islam is the creation of a global ecumene that transcends any particular religious framework, that opens up the possibility of a more just society.

From a realist view, this is impossible, the interests of the powerful will always overwhelm those of the weak. Battles within religions, between strong and soft, are far more important than a dialogue of civilizations.[23] Even if a new world system develops, it is likely to be Western-based, technocratic, and based on notions that only will only appear sensible to the West. The rich will take flight in their genetically created fool proof bodies, the rest will die tortuous deaths on a planet in environmental crisis.

Still, without a vision of the future, we decline – we do not battle slavery, we acquiesce to injustice. The vision pulls us forward, ennobles and enables us. It calls out the best of us. Muslims have had glorious periods in human history, these can be recovered and used to move onward.

In a workshop with leading Islamic scholars, activists and technocrats, muslims called for a vision of the future with five key attributes.[24]

· self-reliant ecological communities

· electronically linked khalifa, politically linked

· gender partnership – full participation of females

· an alternative non-capitalist economics that takes into account the environment and the poor

· the ummah as world community as guiding principle based on tolerance

· leadership that embodies both technical and moral knowledge

These points may or may not come about. The structures of oppression, the weight of history pulls us away from our desired futures. But our desires gives us agency. The future can be door into an alternative world. If we take this door, then the policy and implementation question comes back but framed as: how can we make the moral the rational, the easier path?

If we don’t, we should take heed from this warning:

Isn’t it here that you take a half step wrong and wake up a thousand miles astray.[25]


 

References

[1] Indeed, given the fear of Islam in the West, “competing globalization” may be a far better term.

[2] Muslim scientists at the Stockholm Seminar in 1981 identified a set of fundamental concepts which define the Islamic paradigm. See Ziauddin Sardar, Islamic Science: the Way Ahead (booklet). Islamabad, OIC/COMSTECH, 1995, 39.

[3] Anwar Ibrahim, The Asian Renaissance. Singapore, Time Books, 1996. Quoted in Sohail Inayatullah, “A Dialogue of Civilizations,” New Renaissance (Vol. 7, No. 3, issue 22, 1997), 39.

[4] Not to mention the numerous failed Islamic revolutions of late. The causes are, of course, a mixed. They include, the constrainted placed by the Western globalist system but as well Islamic nations location within patriarchal and feudal social systems.

[5] See Munawar Anees, The Future of Islam: Tie Up Your Camel. Journal of Futures Studies (May, 2000).

[6] See Zia Sardar, “Asian Cultures: Between Programmed and Desired Futures,” in Eleonora Masini and Yogesh Atal, eds. The Futures of Asian Cultures. Bangkok, Unesco, 1993. 52.

[7] The movie Aladdin is one example. Aladdin, meaning the servant of god, by the end of the movie rediscovers himself as “just al.” This, of course, represents the secularization of Islam, its defeat in shaping world epistemic space. The movie could have been an attempt at a dialogue of cultures but instead it, as expected, commodified and cannibalized.

[8] www.who.org, See, World Health Organization, The Global Burden of Disease, 1996. http://www.who.int/. See, Caring for Mental Health in the Future. Seminar report commissioned by the Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios. Kluver Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1992, 315. See as well: The Global Movement for Active Ageing. http://www.who.org/ageing/global_movement/index.html.

[9] See Zia Sardar Postmodernism and the Other: The New Imperialism of Western Culture. London. Pluto, 1998. Also see, Sohail Inayatullah, “Deconstructing the Year 2000,” Futures ( Vol. 32, 2000), 7-15.

[10] For more on this, see, Levi Obijiofor, Sohail Inayatullah with Tony Stevenson, “Impact Of New Information And Communication Technologies (Icts) On Socioeconomic And Educational Development Of Africa And The Asia-Pacific.” Report to the Director-General, Unesco. Paris, 1999. Also see, Zia Sardar and Jerome Ravetz, Cyberfutures. London, Pluto Press, 1996.

[11] See, for example, Sohail Inayatullah, Situating Sarkar. Maleny, Australia, Gurukul, 1999 and Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Fitzgerald, eds. Transcending Boundaries. Maleny, Australia, Gurukul, 1999.

[12] Munawar Anees, Human Cloning: An Atlantean Odyssey? Eubios Journal of Asian and International Bioethics (Vol. 5, No. 1, 1995), 36‑37. Also available from Periodica Islamica, 22 Jalan Liku, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 59100.

[13] Abdulaziz Sachedina 1997. “Testimony before the Subcommittee on Public Health and Safety of the

Committee on Labor and Human Resources, United States Senate, 105th Congress.” Ethics and Theology:

A Continuation of the National Discussion on Human Cloning. U.S. Government Printing Office. See: http://research.mednet.ucla.edu/pmts/Germline/Religion%20Philosophy/rpframes.htm (accessed April 11, 2000).

[14] For more on this, see, Sohail Inayatullah, “Further and Closer than Ever Before: The futures of religion,” in Felix Marti, ed. The Contribution of Religion to the Culture of Peace, Barcelona, Centre Unesco de Catalunya, 1995

[15] Lydia Krueger, “North-South” in Kevin Rosner, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems. Paris, Unesco, 2002 (forthcoming).

[16] Anwar Ibrahim, “The Ummah and Tomorrow’s World,” Futures (Vol. 23, No. 3, April 1991), 302-310.[17] Ibid., 307.

[18] Ibid., 308

[19] Ibid., 309

[20] See, Sohail Inayatullah, “Expanding our Knowledge and Ignorance: Understanding the Next One Thousand Years,” The Australian Business Network Report (Vol. 7, No. 10, December, 2000), 13-17 and Sohail Inayatullah, “Ageing Futures: From Overpopulation to World Underpopulation, ” The Australian Business Network Report (Vol. 7, No. 8, October, 1999), 6-10;.

[21] Charles Darwin in Richard Lynn, Dysgenics: Genetic Deterioration in Modern Populations. Westport, Ct. Praeger, 1996, 5.

[22] Ibid.

[23] Felix Marti, ed. The Contribution of Religion to the Culture of Peace, Barcelona, Centre Unesco de Catalunya, 1995.

[24] Sohail Inayatullah, “Leaders envision the future of the Islamic Ummah,” World Futures Studies Federation Bulletin (July 1996), Coverpage.. See, Sohail Inayatullah, “Futures Visions of Southeast Asia: Some Early Warning Signals,” Futures (Vol. 27, No. 6, July/August, 1995), 681-688.

[25] The words of Yang Chu, said, while weeping at the crossroads. From the Confucian Hsun-tzu

West and Non-West, Ego and Alter-Ego: Technological, Communicative and Microvita Futures Explored (2001)

Sohail Inayatullah. Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Tamkang University; International Management Centres Association, University of Action Learning; the Communication Center, Queensland University of Technology.

Keywords: Civilizations, Alternative Futures, Agricultural, Food, Macrohistory, Scenarios

Summary: The argument made in this article that there are generally two foundational global  futures – the artificial (globalization-technologization) era and the communicative-inclusive era. The basic perspective in the first scenario is that things rise – more progress, more technology, more development, more wealth and more individuality. This is generally the view of older age cohorts and those in the center of power. The second scenario is focused on inner and social transformation, whether because of green or spiritual values or because of the wise and moral use of technology. This is the vision of those marginal to the system – youth, women, the “others” – it is idealistic, and not beholden to the values of the Market or State but firmly entrenched in the People’s Sector. In contrast to the exponential curve of the first scenario, this scenario has a cyclical curve (returning to a more stable time) in some variations and a spiral curve (a return to traditional values but in far more inclusive terms) in other variations.

These two scenarios, images of the future, oscillate in the West. The West needs the latter, its alter-ego, to refresh itself.  Within this over all pattern, Collapse remains the fear (technology gone wrong or overpopulation from the South either because of the exploitation of nature or over-concentration of power and wealth) that spurs the West to constantly create new futures. The image of collapse is used as a call to action, to either join the technology revolution or the consciousness revolution, than as a firm belief in the end of the world.

We also argue that the West is by definition in crisis, indeed, crisis – the threat of collapse or a return to a slower time (an imagined past when men were men and economies were local, with chaos controllable) is how it refreshes itself. Without these two pillars, the West would have fallen to the way side and other civilizations would have reigned supreme.

In contrast to the West, the non-West follows a different pattern. The ego of the non-West has now been constructed by the West, such that as much as the non-West resists Westernization, it embraces it, becoming even more Western than the West, as, for example, Japan or Malaysia. The alter-ego, however, comes across in two ways: first as traditional, ancient indigenous knowledge, generally, focused not on the Western utopia but on the Indic and Sinic eupsychia – the cultivation and perfection of the self.  Related to this concern is the self-reliant, localist, community model of development and social relations. Second, as attempts to not only limit their understandings at local levels but making new claims for the universal. This perspective is best stated by the Indian philosopher, P.R. Sarkar. His theory of agriculture as well as the worldview behind it, which he terms Microvita, offers a new vision of the future of science, society and particularly of food and agriculture. The article concludes by exploring the impact of Sarkar’s theory on the future of agriculture and food.

Contents:

1.      Technological Fatigue

2.      Western Worldview

3.      Scenarios Of The Future

4.      Case Studies

5.      Values And Behavior

6.      Structure Of The Future

7.      The Non-West

8.      Local and Integrated Farming

9.      Sarkar’s Vision Of The Future

10.  The Microvita Revolution

 

1. TECHNOLOGICAL FATIGUE

Based on the massive 10 nation study of how individuals envisioned the Year 2000, Johan Galtung writes that the most pessimistic respondents where those that came from the richest nations. [1]  In particular, young people,[2] relevant here to us as potential carriers of a new worldview or at least as idealistic visionaries who can transform Industrial civilization, expressed a development fatigue. They had seen the limits of technology, and understood that social transformation and inner transformation was required. While respondents generally desired social and inner change, what they received were more technologies.[3]

The result of unfulfilled desired has been cognitive dissonance, at a foundational level, civilizational level.  The dissonance can be described as: a desire for social transformation but the reality of globalized technocracy: a discourse of fairness but global, national and corporate policies that discriminate against the poor, the indigenous, the young – the most vulnerable.

At one extreme it is the rush to join the MBA set (and now e-tech culture), to globalise, to work hard to ensure that one’s own future is bright, even if the rest of the ship is sinking (the Titanic metaphor of the future). Agriculture and farming in this perspective/strategy are not just seen as uneconomical but as dirty, as part of pre-industrial history. With history defined in linear terms, the past is to be avoided (and specifically left to the Others, the backward countries and races).

The second response has been the global backlash of the right – to resist multiculturalism (specifically, the alternative ways of knowing expressed by other cultures), and the other, through a return to extreme forms of one’s identity. This is the Islamic right wing or the Christian right wing and localist/nationalistic movements throughout the World.

In more respectable forms, this is scientism, wherein science (like god) is seen outside of history, the truth for all once they convert to the open inquiry of the scientific method.[4] Science delivers the future, creates the future, for one and all. As famed physicist, Michio Kaku said in reference to the new world being created by the technologies of genetic engineering, nano-technology and space research: get on the train or forever be left behind.[5] The reality of not being able to get on the train has, as in earlier times, as resistance to the march of progress in the American Western Frontier, been an attack on the train – on globalisation, on gene research, as well as on other ethnicities (since they are most easily visible when it comes time to determining who has taken away the jobs).

Farming in this alternative future of resistance to globalization is considered bright, largely because it is associated with the past – simple technologies – and with mono-culture. The past is considered far less chaotic, time was slower, one lived with the rhythms of nature, and Others lived far away.

A third alternative to the rush of the future is common in OECD nations, that of suicide, especially suicide among males. They end their physical life partly as they see no future, they are missing moral male role models and the only rituals left are those around consumption – the shopping mall as the great savior.

Agriculture and farming seen here not merely as an economic activity but as a ritual, as a way of life. It can be considered the antidote to the problem of modernity and post-modernity. The agricultural ways of life brings discipline and hard work. There are clear rules, corn is corn and is not seen as part of discourse, but living reality.   However, for technological globalists, it is exactly this past that must be creatively destroyed by higher and higher forms of capitalism – the train must go on, eventually become a plane, then a starship. However, with limited portals to the gates of the globalization train, what results are not only attacks on the train (as with fundamentalist movements) but jumping in front of the train (suicide and depression by those who cannot cope with an accelerating future, or who sense that they will have no part in this future).

Irrespective of the strategy taken by young (and old), at heart then is a crisis in worldview. However, generally research on how people see the future rarely explores these foundations. Instead data is presented focused on whether individuals are optimistic or pessimistic about the future – the search is for signs of despair and hope. Causes of suicide are either individualized (no discipline), blamed on unemployment and other social and economic problems, or related to genes.[6]  However, for causes to be sensible must be nested in the limits of the industrial and postindustrial worldview wherein reality is segmented into work (profit-making) followed by years of retirement.  An analysis of worldview must as well speak to an even deeper sense of myth and metaphor. At this level of analysis, the issue is what stories do we tell ourselves?

For individuals outside of the mainstream of the present (and thus open to alternative futures), the  problem for them is a story of the universe in which they are expected to behave in certain ways (become a worker, rational human being) and a reality that either denies this possibility (unemployment) and is utterly divorced from their world (the limits of the European enlightenment with respect to accessing other ways of knowing). There is thus a contrast to the world of globalization and secularization and the realities of emotions and identity creation.

So far we have pointed to the alternatives taken to jumping on the train to the future. First, there is cognitive dissonance since people do not want a train to the future but rather want the worldview behind the one-train perspective to be challenged. They want inner transformation and social innovation not the latest technology. Those that can not get on attack the train and yearn for earlier days. Others see no hope and jump in front of the globalization train. A fourth alternative is the postmodern, to see the entire exercise as socially constructed, so not only one train to the future but many trains and many other forms of transport (jet planes, camels, teleportation, telecommunication, walking, sitting still and imagining).

However, a problem with postmodernism is that it gives endless choices – virtuality – but with no foundation.[7]   Without this foundation, the result is a reality with too many selves – the swift Teflon vision of the future, where identity is about speed and the collection of a multitude of experiences, not about understanding the Other – not about deep communication wherein others (nature, other cultures, new technologies, even) are understood in their own terms.

Moreover the terms within which postmodernism includes others remains defined within the confines of the Western limitless worldview of accumulation. The choices, apparently multicultural, in fact, are about consumption, consuming other cultures. Virtuality merely creates the illusion of endless choice but not the fulfillment of having met and responded to a challenge. Nature, conditions of inequity and authentic alternatives to the postmodern are lost in this discourse. It is the response to the challenge that leads to inner growth, to economic and social development. The end result of postmodernity is depression, a condition that the World Health Organization has already made dramatic forecasts about. WHO estimates that by 2020 depression will be the leading cause of  “disability adjusted life years“ dramatically increasing the demands for psychiatric health services for young and old…[8]

2. WESTERN WORLDVIEW

However, as Galtung argues, it is too simple to say that the problematique is of the Western worldview, of the crises of the West. First since the West is ubiquitous and second since even closed societies exhibit similar problems. Third, it is a conceptual mistake to argue that the West is in crisis since this is a tautological statement.[9] The West by definition exists in this way. That has been the West’s success in expanding the last 500 years.  The West is not just linear in its evolution, it is also dramatic, apocalyptic (the end of the World, the collapse). The West by definition searches for the latest breakthrough, the victory, the challenge that can propel onwards.

But the other side of the West is its alter ego. This alter ego is focused not on expansion but on human rights. Not on the businessman but on the shaman, not on the mature adult ready to life and retire from the company (or kingdom or church) but on the youth that contests reality. Not on domination focused masculine principles but on partnership focused feminine principles. Not the city but the wild.

The challenge to official reality comes also from the outside, the periphery, for example, the Bedouins not vested in the normative and coercive power of the state, as Ibn Khaldun argues.[10]  Indeed, youth, women, mystics, those from traditional society, are the periphery. Even as many are part of the ego of the West (I shop therefore I am) many are of the alter-ego (I love therefore I am and I protest therefore I am). It has been the capacity of the West to appropriate counter movements – the challenge to official reality – to use youth, women, non-western cultures and others to transform itself from within that has been the success of making the West universal.  The incredible growth in the organic food industry is an excellent example of this. In this sense, the crisis in the West is not new, it is merely the alter-ego expressing the alternative West.

Farming and Food:

Within the framework of agriculture/farming, this  ego/alter ego oscillation comes out in two ways. The dominant is clearly the technological with the subservient the organic, the manual. In the technological, this has moved from industrial farming, and in recent times, to GM foods (for example, “everything from pickles and peanut butter to tofu and tomatoes is in the US injected with genes from arctic fish to make them frost resistant”[11]). The GM food future will eventually leading to functional foods, wherein foods will be injected with various vaccines (Tetanus or polio, for example) or fruit juices flush with psyllium for fibre or grapes with high amounts of lycopene for treatment of prostate cancer or applies spliced with an antioxident gene from strawberries)[12]. The alternative is community farming, a return to nature. Women are of course playing a leading role in the switch to consuming organic foods partly as the suffer more from health problems (as one would expect in patriarchy) but also as they are generally more concerned with future generations, with the health of their children.

However, it is mistake to see organic farming (community farming, perma-culture, etc) as outside the Western worldview, it is merely the shadow side of the technological.

We should this within the futures of agriculture expect to see a continued rise of both Wests – the transgenic food industry and the organic food industry (as well slippage in the organizational paradigms behind them, ie the former may become decentralized and localized while the latter may become like a real industrial era industry, moving away from its community “small is beautiful”  roots).

Understanding Structure:

Returning to our exploration of what individuals do when desires are unfulfilled (attack the train, jump in front of the train, etc), part of the problem with those responding to globalization is that they base their politics on a visible identification of the enemy. In the metaphor we have used, evil are corporate heads or mad scientists. The metaphorical dimension of the train representing  progress, the one-track as mono-culture nature of technology and the uni-direction is the commitment to progress at all costs.

Thus what is harder to see – beyond the visible litany – is the worldview, the codes that define what is real, what is important, what is beautiful, truth and reality. This becomes possible to see when one steps outside one’s own terms of reality and enters other cultures or time frames (creating an epistemological distance from the present and future).  Less difficult but still challenging is understanding structure, that is, historical processes that are actor invariant, such as class, patriarchy or varna (from sanskrit, loosely meaning color but generally a structure of power). While Marxists have focused on structure (the imperialists are the problem) as have muslims (Western Satans) but by resorting to conspiracy theories (using structure but unfortunately moving to specific cultures) they have lost legitimacy. Indeed, by focusing on evil and attempting to eliminate others, a war of attrition has resulted, where whomever is not the purest is bombed, as in South Asia and Yugoslavia.

Thus for those attempting to transform society, change appears to be easier when evil is clearer – whether a tyrant or a multinational such as General Motors or more recently Microsoft) or a world organization such as the World Bank. It is more difficult when structure (inequity) or worldview that must be challenged and transformed, that is, not the visible hardware but the harder to see software (actually, the problem is in the context that makes sense of hardware and software – the entire computing metaphor).

However, there is a worldview that comes across in a multitude of movements, each touching some dimension of the critique of what has come to be called globalization.  These are expressed in the form of the spiritual movements, the vegetarian movement, the green movement, the community movement, the human rights movements All these movements are generally supported by youth as cadres even if managed by aging hippies.  Thus, there is a clear age-cohort dimension to the future. As these young people age, what might the forms of social resistance take. What might be the mixture of cyber-protest, social movements, for example?

Later in this paper, we will investigate the structural parameters that may lead to success or failure for these movements. Suffice to say at this stage that how one sees the futures of change largely depends on whether one sees social change as linear or cyclical or spiral. For linear developmentalists, youth movements, spiritual movements, animal rights movements, community farming movements, are generally signs that (1) progress is occurring since history is complaining (2) these movements should be listened to since ignoring them only increases the costs to the system (but only if they cannot be mocked, avoided, imprisoned, first), and (3) generally the voices of morality have always complained, and technological/economic progress has always won. So as they in Australia: no worries. Stay on the track.

For cyclical thinkers, for example, such as Pitirim Sorokin,[13] systems reach their limits. Once reached they return to other periods in history. Each system can only express a certain level of reality. For example, as West qua materialism reaches its sensate peak, it marginalizes the spiritual. The system goes in crisis, and once it reaches this limit, it returns to an ideational system, focused on ideas, on morality. Progress becomes defined by proximity to God and not the capacity to purchase the real. Thus the current system has reached its natural limits and the alternative Ideational system is about to begin.

For spiral thinkers such as the late Indian philosopher and Master, P.R. Sarkar[14] – whom we will return to later – human social history move through stages. The workers era (shudra) focused on meeting basic needs. This led to the warrior era (ksattriya) where strength, challenges, honor were crucial. Empires resulted as power was centralized. Next comes the Intellectual Era (vipra) – power controlled by priests and monks – wherein ideas and their circulation is the key. The limit was reached when economic growth was avoided. In the battle between the monarch and the priest in European history, for example, it was the trader, the burghers outside the city walls, that emerged victorious. The capitalists (vaeshyas) entered the cycle and commodified workers, warriors and intellectuals. This is where we generally stand now. Next is a global worker’s revolution when the entire system will transform and move to a new era of Warriors (a centralized world governance system based on global ethics, honor and the meeting of new challenges, space, most likely). The spiral comes in that once the pattern is seen a new leadership can emerge and ensure that while the cycle turns, no group is exploited – neither worker, warrior, intellectual or trader – allowing the cycle to become a spiral.

The hypothesis then is that the crisis that the West faces are part of the West’s own renewal and clearly part of the fatigue of development.  They can also be nested in the structure of the time, the guiding worldview and the myth/story behind it.

Delay:

This fatigue, and resultant futures, has been delayed because of the internet revolution.  Earlier, calls for transformation where focused on the reinvigoration of farming and agricultural, of challenging industrial modes of family, organization, religion and sexuality. The farm meant a return to community, a rejection of the paradise of the (sub)burbs. A new age-cohort, screen-agers, as Douglas Rushkoff accurately calls them, have found a different way to express individuality.[15] It is quick time, quick communication and a chance to immediately lead instead of to follow. This will likely be even more delayed because of revolutions in genetics and nano-technology. While at one level delayed, at another level, the .com revolution is a youth explosion, of an expression of an alternative paradigm of social relations. Many small start- ups are multicultural, gender-partnership based and challenge traditional notions of working 9-5 and wearing black suits. They also offer a network vision of work and organizational structure. In this sense, they renew even as they delay more basic (needed) changes to globalization.

The issue then is the technological transformed promised by the Gene and Net revolution merely a continuation of globalization and technocracy or a structural and ideational foundational change?

Are the carriers of new social codes about the transformation of the dominant World culture – the West – or as part of the success of the West, itself?

3. SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE

Let us leave these questions for the time being and explore what types of futures are desired by groups and individuals throughout the world. Interestingly but not surprisingly, the ego and alter-ego of the West comes across in foundational scenarios of the future. These can be seen in popular and academic images of the future, and have certainly come across in visioning workshops in a range of countries.

Focusing on these scenarios is not to restrict the importance of individual trends such as disintermediation, aging, multiculturalism, the rights movement, global governance but to frame trends in the context of larger patterns of change. Scenarios or pictures of emerging futures is a far more integrative way of capturing such information.[16]

Globalized Artificial Future

The first is the globalized artificial future and the second is the Communicative-Inclusive future.[17]

The globalized scenario is high-technology and economy driven. Extreme features include, the right to plastic surgery and an airplane for each person. Generally, the vision is of endless travel and shopping, and a global society where we all have fun by having all our desires  met. It is the Western vision of paradise.

Food, while plentiful, in this scenario is identity based, ie food that defines self. Food is fun, food is exotic (Thai or Indian). Food is also mixed, eg Tex-Mex. Agricultural, as mentioned earlier, while at one level considered dirty, at another level, it is not considered at all, even if the reality is that world population increases require increased food production. Food, like other commodities, should be not scarce. It definitely should be globalized, all sorts easily available wherever one is. This is part of the postmodern/globalized thrust, of having all perspectives quickly and easily available In the long run, in this future, food will move from globalized food to transgenic food, moving not just from cultural diversity (many types of food) to genetically engineered food. For example, “the world market for transgenic products is projected to increase to $8billion in 2005 and 25$ billion in 2010. Corporate transactions related to ventures in GM seeds, agro-chemicals and research, valued at more than $ 15billion (from 1996-1999) is expected to keep pace.”[18] Overtime, food, will merge with pharmaceuticals, with the creation of functional foods, created for particular health needs.

Rural communities will be so not because they are agricultural based but because they are different from the city, indeed, they provide areas of respite for Earth as City: City as planet. Rurality may become redefined as areas of elite wealth and not as areas of cultural backwardness, as areas of limited choice, as, for example, the Australian Bush or the South Asian village are seen today.

More specifically, this scenario of the future can be defined as:

·                    Genetic Prevention, Enhancement and Recreation – New Species , Germ Line Engineering and the End of ‘Natural’ Procreation

·                    Soft and Strong Nano-Technology – End of Scarcity and Work

·                    Space Exploration – Promise of ET Contact or at Least, Species Continuation in case an Asteroid hits Earth.

·                    Artificial Intelligence and ultimately the Rights of Robots – development of personal artificial bots

·                    Life Extension and Ageing – Gerontocracy and the End of Youth Culture

·                    Internet and the Global Brain

·                    Globalization, large transnationals organizing production of needs and desires.

The underlying ethos is that technology can solve every problem and lead to genuine human progress.

At a grand level, this vision of the future challenges traditional notions of truth, reality, nature, Man and sovereignty. Truth is considered multiple, socially constructed. Reality is physical but as well virtual (cyberspace). Nature is no longer considered fixed but can be challenged and changed by humans, largely through genetic manipulation. While previously human evolution was stable, with cultural evolution quicker and technological evolution the quickest, now the technology has the potential to quicker human biological evolution itself. This fundamentally shifts the tension between culture and technology, to technology and biology, leaving culture where? The category Man has been has been deconstructed by feminists and shown to be historically constructed. And finally economic globalization makes sovereignty problematic and cultural globalization makes the sovereignty of the self (one stable self) porous, leading to far more liminal selves.

The impact of this vision and the underlying trends in the food area are singular. Genetically modified foods are the solution, especially since global agricultural production has been steadily declining since the Green Revolution of the 1960s’ and will continue to do so at 1.8% a year. With population increasing, along with a purchasing power (and technology and gene) divide, food production must dramatically increase.

Communicative-Inclusive

In contrast is the communicative-inclusive society, which is values driven. Consumption of every possible good in this scenario is far less important to communication. It is learning from another about another that is crucial. While technology is important, the morality of those inventing and using it is far more important. Instead of solving the world’s food problem through the genetic engineering of food, the reorganization of society and softer more nature-oriented alternatives such as organic foods are far more important.  Food is not only necessary for our biological growth but food is social (creating community) and food is spiritual (the correct foods helping one become more subtle and incorrect foods, crudifying one’s body/mind/spirit).

The goal is not to create a world that leads to the fulfillment of desire but one wherein desire is reduced (the Buddhist perspective) or channeled to spiritual and cultural pursuits. While earlier incarnations of the scenario were to make everyone into a worker (the Marxian distribution dream) or everyone into a shudra (a worker, the Gandhian sentiment) or a peasant (the Maoist), recent articulations are far more sophisticated and focused on what Sarkar[19] has called Prama – or dynamic balance. Prama means inner balance (of material/spiritual), regional balance (of nations, no one nation can be rich if the neighbor is poor), of industrial/agricultural production (not leaving the land but seeing it as part of national development) and of economic balance (self-reliance in basic needs plus export orientation of non-essentials).

Of course, in the USA, where only 2% work directly in the agricultural sector, balance should be defined differently. However, As Steve Diver argues in “Farming the Future”:

Though a dramatic increase in the farm sector is not appropriate in a developed economy, clearly more people would take up farming were it economically feasible.  In addition, when so many people are removed from the land and the experience of living and working around Nature, a cumulative collective psychological effect of dislocation and disconnectedness from self and one’s environment is likely.  Indeed, eco-psychologists suggest that many of the social ills present in industrialized countries are the result of such an imbalance.[20]

Along with balance, in this future, is diversity. In particular the pitfalls of reliance on genetic intervention are crucial here since they threaten biodiversity. Indeed, the Irish potato famine of the 1840s is largely because everyone plotted one crop. “Had the crop been biodiverse, the catastrophe would not have occurred.[21]

The alternative scenario gains credence as well since the logical conclusion of GM foods are nano-foods, or the fabled meal-in-a-pill. Of course, the pill will not be tasteless or odourless or emotionless (as currently imagined) – eating it will be a real virtual programmed experience. The pill will not just provide nutrients but evoke emotions, stimulate glands and for all practical purposes be everything we currently and historically associate with eating. Of course, the meal-in-a-pill still has to be invented but when it does, the issue will be what type of social situation will go with it? Once the collective meal is lost, what society will result? What ways then will there be to slow time down, to connect with others? How will the meal-in-a-pill fit into the food qua spirituality perspective?

It is these concerns that the communicative-inclusive scenario articulates and presents. Far more important than the meal-in-a-pill is the communicative nature of eating, of the importance of work for those producing food (work gives humans dignity), of the social design of food producers (not collectives nor corporations but cooperatives, sharing land and wealth), and of the health (physical, mental and spiritual) issues associated with food.

More specifically the communicative-inclusive scenario has the following characteristics:

·                    Challenge is not solved through technology but through creating a shared global ethics;

·                    Dialogue of civilizations and between civilizations in the context of multiple ways of knowing is the way forward;

·                    A balanced but dynamic economy. Technological innovation leads to shared co-operative economic system;

·                    Maxi-mini global wage system –incentive linked to distributive justice;

·                    A soft global governance system with 1000 local bio-regions;

·                    Layered identity, moving from ego/religion/nation to rights of all;

·                    Holistic science –life as intelligent.

The underlying perspective is that of a global ethics with a deep commitment that communication and consciousness transformation can solve all our problems.

The trends that underlie this scenario are as with the earlier scenario challenges to Truth, Reality, Nature, Man and Sovereignty but with a different angle. Instead of genetic science it is new paradigms in physics. Instead of a world ruled by multinationals, it is the growth of Green Parties and social movements associated with transparency  that are far more important.

Truth and Reality are seen as both ultimate (spiritual) and physical. It is multi-perspectual in that we make are own realities, however, there is an underlying non-constructed unity to reality – that of a moral universe driver by cause-effect. In one word: karma. This comes out from the growth of the spiritual movements and cosmological exchange (the non-West creating cultural bridgeheads in the West) as well as through the dramatic new health paradigm, which while essentially spiritual focuses on integrating mind-body, seeing both as essential to well-being.[22] Nature, however, is not to be tampered with. Urbanization is the problem and nature is given, indeed, a sacred trust given to humanity. Man is contested as humans are among the many species on the planet – nature, animals, with spiritual entities, Gaia herself. Sovereignty is challenged as nation-states are considered passe’ – part of the problem. A solution could be a planetary civilization based on the self-reliance model. Food would certainly be locally grown – and regional when required –  with the world government setting up policy standards (what level of chemical fertilizers what level of meat consumption allowed, and what levels of food can be exported).

However, this scenario should not be seen as anti-technology, although there are certainly groups that prefer aspects of this vision who are more luddite than others. But most likely technology is likely to be driven by ethical values. For example, technology could be used to give information on the caloric count of foods, so as to avoid high-fat foods. These health-bots could also immediately let one know the level of pollutants in the food, where the food was produced, and over time the social conditions that the food was produced in. Thus the net, cellular phones could be used to transform globalization from within, giving consumers information on products so that they could make choices consistent with their worldviews. Technology would thus serve as a moral guide, an angel over one’s shoulder, helping one do the right thing. [23]

However, while this is a change in paradigm, at a deeper cosmological level, it is not a foundational change, in that this scenario represents the alter-ego of the West. It is the West, contracting, searching for that identity it has unconsciously repressed.

4. CASE STUDIES

Within the theoretical context developed above, we now explore specifically what futures are likely to result. The likelihood of a particular future occurring is partly based on the desired future, that is, individuals are likely to work to create the futures they want. However, there are structural parameters that influence, that limit, the future as well. A later section of this article will explore these considerations.

In terms of the case studies presented below, they are based on the visions of young persons between the age of 15-25. This means that in 15-20 years they may be in policy positions to impact the future (at least the official ego future of the West and not the alter-ego, which they currently impact). The case studies below focus on how young people imagine their preferred futures as well as the type of alternative futures they see emerging. Of course, these case studies should be seen as indicative instead of conclusive, as among the signs of the emergent future.

1. Undergraduate Students at the Centre of European Studies, University of Trier- Agriculture and the Futures of Europe. [24]

Community/Organic:

The first and most popular scenario was the Community/Organic. In this scenario, young people moved away from the chemical corporate way of life and searched for community-oriented alternatives.  Local currency networks, organic farming, shared housing and other values and programs favored by the counter-culture were favored.  When asked why individuals would prefer this future, they responded that the current (1999) Dioxin contamination in Belgium (with similar scares in the future even more likely) could lead to quite dramatic changes away from artificial, pesticide and genetic foods, in the longer run.

Food was part of a larger life-style, paradigm issue. These young people imagined a community household system where goods and services were shared. However, one participant  imagined Europe not within the urban/community dichotomy but saw the entire of Europe as becoming community-oriented. This meant a clear move away from the view that I shop therefore I am  to I relate therefore I am. In this sense, the key way of knowing was not philosophy qua reason; or religion/state qua authority; or science quo empiricism, or even spirituality qua intuition but communication qua relationship. The self was no longer alone but nested in communities of care, each one expanding eventually leading to Gaia, herself.

This focus on relationship was also central for other participants, who did not specifically share the community/organic future. Indeed, it was the return to a strong family life that was pivotal in terms of how they saw the future of Europe. Taking care of children – and ensuring that the state provided funds for this – taking care of the elderly, and in general living so that familial relationship were far more important then exchange relations.

Clearly this scenario reflects the communicative-inclusive scenario identified earlier.

The Family:

In minor contrast to the community scenario, this future was far more focused on the nuclear family – the Family Future. Indeed, efforts to maintain this institution were considered crucial by some participants especially with the rise of genetic engineering, and the possibility of test-tube factories in the not so distant future.  Indeed, while more formal visioning workshops with technocratic experts examine scientific variables (such as the nature of future populations or income levels or possibilities of global catestrophes)[25], these students asked, “will I have children? How many? How will I spend my time with them?”  Issues of food/work etc were not as important as the personal nature of one’s family.

This of course should be understood in the context of the age of the respondents. Most likely, as they age and have families, this group will find itself drawn to the organic/community scenario.

Celebrating a Plastic Future:

However, other participants believed that the new technologies would be dominant and instead of resisting them we should rejoice. We should celebrate in artificial intelligence, plastic surgery, gene enhancement creating a Plastic Europe. Anonymity in fact gives freedom from other; it allows the individual to express herself, while community and family suppress the individual. The organic/community scenario, they believed, was reflective of the agricultural era – a time when individuals, especially women, did not have rights.

The new technologies as well promise great wealth. Indeed some argued that far more important than family life was single life. It gave choice; it was not steeped in outdated institutions such as marriage. Europe was flexible and it should remain so when it came to formal relations.

However, behind these preferred futures was the reality of disaster.

One participant argued that oil reserves would certainly run out, and Europe would quickly decline, while Africa, with its plentitude of sun, and eventually solar energy,  would rise. Mass unemployment in the context of Castle Europe – keep the barbarians out – was the likely future. AIDS, Ebola, and many other disasters loomed ahead. Nuclear technology could also lead to serious problems and new forms of energy were needed.  Unless alternative forms of energy were developed, the future was bleak.

However, a last perspective was that of technology transforming the future in a positive manner. The new technologies could create the possibility for a network instead of national identity. They allow creativity to grow, and along with more spiritual views of what it means to be human, let humans transcend their narrow limitations.  What Europe could offer was its multilingual focus, its vision of a multicultural society.  Food futures, in this scenario, were likely to be focused on diversity, that is, space for the organic, space for the industrial super market model and space for the genetically modified model.  No one model of how to farm, what to eat and who to eat with would become hegemonic. Social movements and the state (through electoral politics) would reduce the power of corporations. Corporations would as well be influenced through consumer spending, which more and would be focused on alternatives to the current shopping center, “food magically appearing in aisles” model.

These scenarios are echoed by Richard Eckersley in his research: Eckersley writes that young people: “expect to see new technologies further used to entrench and concentrate power and privilege: for example, they were almost twice as likely to believe that governments would use new technologies to watch and regulate people more as they were that these technologies would empower people and strengthen democracy. They want to see new technologies used to help create closer-knit communities of people living a sustainable. [26] This is at essence a mixture of the green/sustainable and transformational future and points to the fact that not all young people are experiencing cognitive dissonance – that many understand the system, and find strategies to work with it without being subverted by it.

These issues are not only European. For example, in a similarly structured  visioning workshop in Taiwan, the following emerged as preferred futures.

2. Taiwan in Global Futures –   Taiwanese Students at Tamkang University, Tamsui, Taiwan, May 1999.

One group imagined a globalized Taiwan with each citizen being super-rich, with their own airplane (the globalist artificial society). Another group imagined a softer, slower, organic future where farming was crucial (the communicative-inclusive). Technology linked them globally but there was no email imperative. Quality of life issues were as crucial as wealth issues. The China/Taiwan issue would be resolved by both entering a supernational federation where nation did not matter any more.

This latter scenario was quite surprising to older participants (one saying that it was a dangerous vision for the nation).  However, it can be explained by the fact that this younger new age-cohort do not have the memory of fleeing China, nor with the poverty of 50 years ago. As with their western counter parts, the have development/science and technology fatigue, and desire a far different life – a green, spiritual future.

5. VALUES AND BEHAVIOR

While these are exemplary case studies via visioning workshops, interestingly we find isomorphic results from Paul Ray’s and Sherry Ruth Anderson’s  study on Cultural Creatives.[27]

Arguing that the best single predictor of real behavior  are values, they divide Americans into three value groups. The first are the moderns. “The simplest way  to understand today’s Moderns is to see that they are the people who accept the commercialized urban-industrial world as the  obvious right way to live. They’re not looking for alternatives,” say Ray and Anderson.[28] They are committed to the “get on the train of progress view. Worldviews are generally those that others have since they believe that their definition of reality is the norm.

In contrast are the Traditionalists. They generally yearn for community, for small town life, traditional notions of nature. These notions are strongly nested in patriarchy, nationalism, and traditional texts (in the US, the Bible). One can easily see that this category is exportable throughout the world. In Taiwan, for example, to Confucian KMT nationalists. Or in Pakistan to the leading Islamic parties (focused on the Quran, here). All are equally distrustful of foreigners, desire to regulate sexual behavior and traditional gender roles.

They would likely reject the Communicative-Inclusive vision of the future (and of the course the Artificial Society) and prefer not a Back to Nature but what we might call, An Imagined Past, when the world was defined by nations and capital and labour mobility was restricted.

Ray and Anderson as well offer a third value orientation, where the believe lie the seeds of a cultural revolution – the Cultural Creatives. They:

·                    love nature and are deeply concerned about its destruction;

·                    are strongly aware of the problems of the whole planet and  want to see action to curb them, such as limiting economic growth;

·                    would pay more taxes or higher prices if you knew the money  would go to clean up the environment and stop global warming;

·                    give a lot of importance to developing and maintaining  relationships;

·                    place great importance on helping other people;

·                    volunteer for one or more good causes;

·                    care intensely about psychological or spiritual development;

·                    see spirituality and religion as important in your own life but are also concerned about the role of the religious Right in politics;

·                    want more equality for women at work and want more women leaders in business and politics;

·                    are concerned about violence and the abuse of women and children everywhere on Earth;

·                    want politics and government to emphasize children’s education and well being, the rebuilding of neighborhoods and communities, and creation of an ecologically sustainable future;

·                    are unhappy with both left and right in politics and want a new way that is not the mushy middle;

·                    tend to be optimistic about the future and distrust the cynical and pessimistic view offered by the media;

·                    want to be involved in creating a new and better way of life in their country;

·                    are concerned about what big corporations are doing in the name of profit: exploiting poor countries, harming the environment, downsizing;

·                    have  finances and spending under control and are not concerned about overspending;

·                    dislike the modern emphasis on success, on “making it,” on wealth and luxury goods;

·                    like people and places that are exotic and foreign, and enjoy experiencing and learning about other ways of life.

Along with these characteristics, Ray and Anderson believe that [29]

cultural creatives in their personal lives, they seek authenticity — meaning they want their actions to be  consistent with what they believe and say. They are also intent on finding wholeness, integration, and community. Cultural Creatives are quite clear that they do not want to live in an alienated, disconnected world. Their approach to health is preventive and holistic, though they do not reject modern  medicine. In their work, they may try to go beyond earning a living to having “right livelihood” or a vocation.

Their vision is consistent with the Communicative-Inclusive vision of the future. While we would assert here that this is merely the alter-ego of the West, Ray and Anderson believe that the cultural creatives represent the future, what others have called the Promise of the Coming Dark Age, or what Johan Galtung has called the Rise of the Middle Ages.[30] The Middle ages where, at least in the first part, about recovering the community lost in the nation-empire building of the Roman Empire. The Middle-Ages were fare more distribution than growth oriented. Of course, the vision of the cultural creatives is community but not with patriarchy or other types of feudal hierarchy. It is a response to modernity and postmodernity and not a reaction to it.

If we then see the West in historical phase shifts – from expansion to contraction (both being natural phases of the West) then we can image the future of the West become far more diverse, far more concerned with meaning, community, gender fairness, smaller. Does this mean then that expansion will then come from other civilization? Or is it possible as Ashis Nandy has argued for the creation of a gaia of civilizations.[31] That is, as the West contracts – finally understanding the Indic perspective that each civilization is incomplete in itself and needs the other –  the garden metaphor of a multitude of civilizations in eco-relationship with other may take root.

Instead of GM foods, organic foods might flourish. Instead of only growth, distribution might again become important. With a more balanced world system, especially in terms of gender relations, population would find a steady level (women would fine their economic and social power from themselves instead of through male children), and instead of the meal-in-a-pill, the image would be of a sharing of foods on community table. But what of the carnivores?

6. STRUCTURE OF THE FUTURE

It is the question of the carnivores that leads us to the next section. Essentially this is an issue of power. In the Gaian model – diverse but generally non-violent, reality created through shared negotiation – vegetarians modes of social and economic organization are far more likely. Vegetarian modes are softer on the Earth, allow for far greater production, and are non-violent. The values behind this perspective is one of self-reliance (lack of dependence on giant corporatist anonymous systems). But what to do with those that differ, what of the giant global system. Are there any possibilities that it will transform? Said, differently, can the West genuinely transform?

Thus, what is often lost in these important attempts to understand the future are the structural constraints and structural possibilities.  In this sense, few scenarios go beyond the dictates of the present (trend extrapolation) and the dictates of vision (aspiration scenarios).

Structural approaches explore the parameters of the possible future. What is probable, not because of current trends (although these are often defined by structural forces) or agency or but because of real historical limits.

If we begin to explore the long term, from a macrohistorical view, there are range of possibilities that define the shape of the long term.  In this essay, we focus on four factors.  We add Sarkar’s theory of varna [32]with Sorokin’s notion of super cultural systems[33] – already presented – with Wallerstein[34] and Eisler.[35] Wallerstein’s is based on class and Eisler’s is based on gender, as derived from her theory of Patriarchy.

Simply stated – and glossing quite a bit of history – there have been four structures.

1.                  World Empire – victory of warrior historical power – coercive/protective – sensate – patriarchy – ksattriya

2.                  World Church – victory of intellectual power – normative – ideational – patriarchy – vipra

3.                  Mini-systems – small, self-reliant cultural systems – ideational –androgny – shudra

4.                  World economy – globalizing economics along national divisions – sensate – vaeshyan

The question is, which structure is likely to dominate in the next 25 to 50 years? Can a new structure emerge? And of course, what does that mean for the futures of agriculture, food and rural communities?

Option 1 of a world empire is unlikely given countervailing powers – given that there is more than one hegemon in the world system and given that there is a lack of political legitimacy for recolonization, for simply conquering other nations. The human rights discourse while allowing intervention in failing nations still severely delimits nation to nation conquest.

Option 2, a world church, is also unlikely given that there are many civilizations (from Muslim to Christian to Shinto to modern secular) vying for minds and hearts. While the millennium has evoked passions associated with the end of man, and the return of Jesus, Amida Buddha or the Madhi, the religious pluralism that is our planet is unlike to be swayed toward any one religion. In this the Gaia model is possible.

Option 3 – 10000 nations/communities –  is possible because of potential decentralizing impact of telecommunication systems and the aspiration by many for self-reliant ecological communities electronically linked. However, small systems tend to be taken over by warrior power, intellectual/religious power or larger economic globalizing propensities.  In the context of a globalized world economy, self-reliance is difficult to maintain. Moreover, centralizing forces and desire for power at the local level limits the democratic/small is beautiful impulse.

Option 4, the world economy, has been the stable for the last few hundred years but it now appears that a bifurcation to an alternative system or to collapse (and reconquest by the warriors) is possible.  Crises in environment, governance, legitimacy all reduce the strength of the world system.

Revolutions from above (global institutions from UN, WTO, IMF) and regional institutions (APEC) and revolutions from below (social movements and nongovernmental organizations), revolutions from technology (cyber democracy, cyber communities and cyber lobbying) and revolutions from capital (globalization) make the nation far more porous as well as the chaotic interstate system that underlies it.[36]

However, none of these problems can be solved in isolation thus leading to the strengthening of global institutions, even for localist parties, who now realize that for their local agendas to succeed they must become global political parties, globalizing themselves, and in turn moving away from their ideology of localism and self-reliance.

Thus what we are seeing even in the local is a necessity to move to the global. There is no other way. Again, this tallies with the cultural creatives as well as with the modernists (but not the traditionalists). The issue, of course, is which globalism? The technocratic version or the gaian version? Can there be a world system that is localized?

Choices

For the West there are three choices as the world economy model falters: (1) Import labor, open the doors of immigration and become truly multicultural and younger. Those nations who do that will thrive financially (the US and England, for example), those who cannot because of localist politics will find themselves slowly descending down the ladder (Germany and Japan, for example).

As the West becomes more multicultural, many types of farming futures  will result. Some industrial, some very small scale (the recreation of suburban neighborhoods by recent immigrants who are in search of land and their traditional local self-reliance). Indeed, the aged might find purpose through small farming, joining recent immigrants in city plots.

The second choice is dramatically increase productivity through new technologies, that is, fewer people producing more goods (or a mix of immigration and email outsourcing). While the first stage is the convergence of computing and telecommunications technology (the Net), nano-technology is the end dream of this. Farming and food, as mentioned earlier, become swallowed by the technocratic discourse, the meal-in-a-pill.

The third choice is the reengineering of the population – creating humans in hospitals. This is the end game of the genetics revolution. The first phase is: genetic prevention. Phase two is genetic enhancement (finding ways to increase intelligence, typing second, language capacity) and phase three is genetic recreation, the creation of new species, super and sub races. In this future, the goal will be to design humans who do not need to eat, or where food is not a problem, or where food is totally recyclable (ie. what you eat, you excrete and then eat again – after the nano-bots clean up the waste).

THE NON-WEST

Which future is structurally likely then? The technocratic-one train vision wishes for a globalized world constricted by  nations-states and Western culture as the backdrop. They will likely get the globalized world but the cost to them will be a softer Western culture, a transformed Western culture. The communicative-inclusive hope for a world of communities – self-reliance, ecological, electronically linked, in gender and global partnership – without any world government system. [37]

Structurally, however, this is next to impossible since it is likely that they will get the vision but not without a global government system that sets new rules that constrict the power of the carnivores (the question will be will they remain carnivores, or will moral and spiritual development have evolved to new levels).

We are thus likely to get a global world system that is informed by the alter-ego of the West. But where is the Non-West in all this, except as providing the seeds for the renewal of the West. We now for the rest of this essay focus on the responses of the non-West. The two Non-Wests, ego and alter-ego.

In contrast to the West, the non-West follows a different pattern. The ego of the non-West has now been constructed by the West, such that as much as the non-West resists Westernization, it embraces it, becoming even more Western than the West, as, for example, Japan or Malaysia. This is the classic love-hate relationship. The non-West own future trajectory having been altered by the West, it finds itself resisting and desiring to be like the West.  Resistance comes in the form of fundamentalist movements, that challenge Western power through acts of terror. At another level, this is expressed at international UN/WTO- type meetings where issues of fairness, sovereignty, access to technologies, national debts are discussed. With the memory of colonization fresh, redress is the key issue. But as with the Roman Empire, where the barbarians attack not to remove Rome but to become even more Roman, we find Asian and African nations striving to become even more Western – quicker, more technological, more commodified, and more exploitive of women, nature and labor.

Thus we see national policy far more pro-big farming, landlords, agri-business and far readier to speculate on the world futures markets (and ready to complain when they lose  as a conspiracy against Asia).

The Alter-Ego:

But of far more interest is the alter-ego. This comes across in two ways: first as traditional, ancient indigenous knowledge, generally, focused not on the Western utopia (the perfection of society) but on the Indic and Sinic eupsychia – the cultivation and perfection of the self. Second, as attempts to not limit their understandings at local levels but to make new claims for the universal. While the former is most conducive to cosmological exchange and indeed forges a partnership between the West and Non-West (Gandhism, Tibetan Buddhism, Zen) the latter is far more problematic for the West, since it challenges the West’s universalism.

8. LOCAL AND INTEGRATED FARMING

In terms of the first model of traditional knowledge (return to pre-contact Asia or Africa), the implications for farming include the following. The general model is one focused on self-sufficiency, water conversation, afforestation, international coordination and cooperation of water and tree regimes, as much as possible organic fertilizers (with limited use of chemical fertilizers), the creation of cottage industries for local people, alternative energy production, and local research center. While it appears to be a pre-industrial model, the use of Net technologies for sharing information on the local, allows a new model for global development. We quote extensively from the P.R. Sarkar’s classic work, Ideal Farming [38]as an exemplary text. His system of integrated farming as a backbone for a new development model includes the following:

·                    Organic farming

·                    Afforestation using scientific and local knowledge in terms of which trees should be planted first (fast growing trees such as cassuarina, sisir (Albezzia Lebbeck), sissoo (Dalbergia), red sandalwood, etc. and second (slow growing trees such as teak which also provides green cover and can be harvested after 30 years or so.

The fast growing trees can be cut after three years, providing an additional source of income for local power.

·                    For afforestation, surface water must be conserved. This is best done by creating small-scale lakes and ponds. Along the lakes and ponds, Sarkar suggests the types of plants that should be used around lakes .Thee include slope plants (pineapple, asparagus, aloe vera, etc), Boundary plants (palm trees, vegetables and fruits), Wire plants (creeping vegetables around a brick wall with a wire fence to keep out animals), Aquatic plants and Surface plants.

·                    Riverside plantations to prevent floods, conserve water, regulate the flow of water in rivers, and keep the soil moist and fertile.

·                    River projects must not be left to one country alone, an international governance system must be set up to ensure the coordination of water conservation and development

·                    Planting of medicinal crops based on the Ayurvedic system

·                    The Maximum utilization of land through crop rotation, crop mixing and supplementary cropping

·                    A range of energy projects including, solar, bio-gas, small scale hydro-electric, bio-mass power, and of course thermal power from coal and other fossil fuels.

While Sarkar, and others such as Aurobindo, provide details suggestions the overall point is that agriculture cannot be relegated to a side-show. Decentralization of the economy is crucial for well-being. This is contrast to the ego of Asia which is focused on economic development that is city-based. The underlying metaphor is of the streets of London town  paved with gold. Cities represent economic growth,[39] while rurality represents stupidity and backwardness.  The city is modern and Western, the village is the shameful face of the non-West. For secular modernized Asians, however, the village represents traditional feudal society. Sarkar’s model is about transforming the village economy, modernizing it through selective science, but generally using indigenous knowledge of greening the environment. He has developed a new model focused on creating small self-reliant, ecological, spiritual, knowledge-intensive communities throughout the world. This has been crystallized at Ananda Nagar, Bengal, the city of Bliss, wherein the alter-ego of the non-West can flourish.

9. SARKAR’S VISION OF THE FUTURE

The Universal dimensions of Sarkar come not from the alternative farming regime or his focus on self-reliance and community building (which is a common theme throughout Asia and Africa) but from the alternative worldview that shapes it. We now in detail investigate this view, concluding with what it means for the future of farming and food.

Sarkar gives us a new map in which to frame self, society, other, nature and the transcendental. One way to think about this is to imagine Sarkar’s scheme as if it was a library.  Instead of floors on government documents, the humanities, social sciences and science (as in conventional libraries), he redesigns the real around the following orderings of knowledge, floors if you will: Tantra (Intuitional Science); Brahmacakra (cosmology, the evolutionary link between matter and mind); Bio-Psychology (the individual body and mind); Prout (specifically, the social cycle, economic growth and just/rational distribution, and the sadvipra, or spiritual leadership); Coordinated Cooperation (gender partnership in history and the future); Neo-Humanism (a new ethics); and, Microvita (the new sciences and health). Certainly a library as constituted by Sarkar’s categories would be dramatically different from current libraries.

At heart, Sarkar’s alternative worldview is about transformation. Sarkar’s strategies of transformation include:

·        Individual transformation through the Tantric process of meditation and the enhancement of individual health through yoga practices that balance one’s hormonal system;

·        Moral transformation through social service and care for the most vulnerable;

·        Economic transformation through the theory of Prout and samaj or people’s movements, as well as through self-reliant master units or ecological centres (As with Ananda Nagar, mentioned above);

·        Political transformation through the articulation of the concept of the sadvipra, the spiritual-moral leader, and the creation of such leaders through struggle with the materialistic capitalistic system and immoral national/local leaders;

·        Cultural transformation through the creation of new holidays and celebrations that contest traditional nationalistic sacred time-space places (such as childrens’ day) and through the recovery of the world’s spiritual cultures as well as through the establishment of Third World social movements that contest the organisational hegemony of Western organisations;

·        Language transformation through the elucidation of a new encyclopedia of the Bengali language and through working for linguistic rights for the world’s minorities;

·        Religious transformation through upholding the spiritual reality that unites us all while contesting patriarchal and dogmatic dimensions of the world’s religions;

·        Scientific transformation by rethinking science as noetic science as well as laying bare the materialistic and instrumentalist prejudices of conventional science; and

·        Temporal transformation by envisioning long range futures and designing strategies for centuries and future generations to come.

For the purposes of this article, two concepts are crucial. They are (1) Neo-humanism and (2) Microvita.

Sarkar’s theory of Neo-Humanism aims to relocate the self from ego (and the pursuit of individual maximization), from family (and the pride of genealogy), from geo-sentiments (attachments to land and nation), from socio-sentiments (attachments to class, race and community), from humanism (the human being as the centre of the universe) to Neo-Humanism (love and devotion for all, inanimate and animate, beings of the universe).  These can be called windows of compassion “which determine the set of beings identified as sufficiently similar to self to deserve equal consideration.”[40] The challenge is to expand our window to include all that is.

Paramount here is the construction of self in an ecology of reverence for life not a modern/secular politics of cynicism.  Spiritual devotion to the universe is ultimately the greatest treasure that humans have; it is this treasure that must be excavated and shared by all living beings.

Neo-humanism is essential to creating  prama. This means that plans and animals as well have existence rights. Writes Sarkar:

The biological disparity between animal and plant – that disparity must not be there.  Just as a human being wants to survive, a pigeon also wants to survive – similarly a cow or a tree also wants to survive.  Just as my life is dear to me, so the lives of other created beings are also equally dear to them.  It is the birthright of human beings to live in this world, and it is the birthright of the animal world and plant world also to remain on this earth.[41]

What this means is ensuring that animals and plants are not treated cruelly, that vegetarianism becomes the dominant food regime.

Writes Diver on the impact of Neo-humanism on farming.

The adoption of Neo-Humanism in modern agriculture will require a shift in sentiment and an alternative agriculture scenario wherein animals continue to play an essential role in both economical and ecological terms, but are not simply raised for slaughter. Positive examples of a Neo-Humanistic animal agriculture are: pastures used solely to raise livestock for slaughter are planted into woody and herbaceous biomass crops; animal manures supply biofertilizers and composts; weeds and brush are controlled by grazing instead of herbicides; animal products (dairy, wool, and eggs) are obtained without harming the animal; other animal products (leather products and organic fertilizers like feather, fish, bone, and blood meal) are obtained when animals die from old age.[42]

Of course, for Sarkar – and this is the problem from a globalist Western view – initiated numerous social and political movements to realize these goals. PCAP (Prevention of Cruelty to Animals and Plants) was started in 1978 and the Universal Proutist Farmer’s Federation (UPFF) in 1966. By universal, he means not based on any one nation or planet. These are part of his grander political movement known as Prout – the progressive theory of utilization. Prout is a global political party, and at the same time, it is a decentralized social movement, focused on self-reliant economics, gender partnership, neo-humanist ecology, among other characteristics. It intends to challenge both capitalism (in terms of distribution) as well as other models (for not, interestingly focusing enough on providing  basic needs and maximum amenities – that is, increasing real per capita income).

The implications for the future of farming and food are many. First, farming is nested in an alternative social-political model. Second, farming is placed in an alternative model of what it means to be human and not-human. Third, farming is seen as central for national and global development. Fourth, farming is essential for the non-West to realize its potential and develop indigenous sciences. Fifth, food can be divided into the following.[43]

·        Food for health (vegetarian food),

·        Food for conscience, ethical foods, non-violence for the creatures eaten, their living conditions,

·        Food for Social Justice – for the creation of a just society, where basic needs are met and there is increased purchasing capacity, ie food that challenges structural violence and poverty, and

·        Food for the spirit (food that enhances one’s meditation and other spiritual practices through stimulating the bodies inner chakras (or physical/psychic/spiritual centres) and

·        Food for the Future (food that is focused on the vibration of who made the meal as well as ultimately food that is synthetically made).

10. THE MICROVITA REVOLUTION

But perhaps the most interesting – and out of the box worldview – is Microvita.

Microvita is the organizing concept that provides a link between the spiritual and the physical. Microvita are the software of consciousness just as atoms are the hardware, Diver argues. They are both ideas and the material, what many have called spiritual vibration in colloquial language.  Positive microvita enhance one’s own health and can create the conditions for a better society.  Indeed, they can be active in social evolution. They are related to one’s thoughts but are also external, that is, microvita move around the universe shaping ideas and the material world.  They can be used by spiritually evolved individuals to spread ideas throughout the planet, indeed, universe.  Microvita are not dead matter but alive, and can be used for spiritual betterment. Microvita provide a link between ideational and materialistic worldviews. They help explain the placebo effect in medicine (through attracting positive microvita) as well as psychic healing (the transfer of microvita from one person to another).  However, the concept of microvita still remains theoretical. They have yet to be empirically verified, even if there are a few hundred individuals practicing microvita meditation.

In terms of the impact on farming and food, Diver is instructive. He writes.

Two broad areas in which microvita research has immediate promise in agriculture are:  the interaction between microvita and biofertilizers, and formulations of chemical fertilizers for specific purposes. Biofertilizers such as animal manure, compost, and biogas sludge are a basic component of eco-agriculture systems like organic and biodynamic farming.  Biofertilizers provide humus and increase biological activity in the soil, thus resulting in better soil tilth, improved water infiltration and water-holding capacity, and enhanced resistance to crop pests.  However, in addition to these scientifically-documented benefits, farmers that use biofertilizers commonly ascribe a subtle ‘vital’ quality to their soils and produce.

Microvita thus provides the theory for observations that certain types of crops – farmed properly – enhance the life force of crops.

According to Sarkar:[44]

There are two types of fertilizer – organic and inorganic.  When fertilizers are used, bacteria is also being used indirectly.  This bacteria functions in two ways – one is positive and the other is negative.  When you utilize biofertilizer bacteria, that is organic fertilizers, the function of the bacteria will only be positive.  You should start practical research into positive microvita from the study of biofertilizers and their positive functions.

Thus crops can be enhanced through the application of positive microvita. This could lead to increased health of those who consume the microvita enhanced foods. Clearly a different approach than the genetically altered model.

Writes Diver:[45]

Sarkar provided two examples whereby differences in microvita makeup can bring about qualitative changes in crops.  The first is jute in Bengal.  Although the seed source may be the same, when jute is raised in Bengal there is a clear difference in the quality of jute fibres between the districts of Maymansingha, Jalpaiguri, and Murshidabad.  The reason for this difference is variation in the number of microvita.  The second is potato.  Even when the same type of fertilizer is used, the rate of production and taste of potatoes between plots may not be uniform in all cases.  The cause lies in the number and denomination of microvita.  In this instance the difference in the number of microvita in oxygen accounts for the contrast.

And:[46]

Other research topics in agriculture where the subtle manipulation of microvita may produce interesting results include: microbial inoculants for composts and soils, biodynamic preparations, herbal medicines and botanical extracts, specialized foliar fertilizers, homeopathic remedies for farm animals, and seed treatments.

Microvita research can also play a role in understanding differences between chemical fertilizers. Fertilizers from two different mineral deposits may have the same elements but differ in terms of microvita. The common expression, “nitrogen is nitrogen is nitrogen” is thus foundationally challenged.

Clearly, if microvita theory is true or if it helps explain the vitalism paradigm used for example in places like Findhorn, it could revolutionize agriculture. What it means that while agriculture and industry are developed in terms the understanding of the interactions at the material level, we are undeveloped at understanding the spiritual level, and how the spiritual level, interacts with the material level.

However, while microvita agriculture is dramatically different from gene modified agriculture, it is also similar. Just as GM foods promise improve health (by changing the structure of food) so does microvita agriculture. One goes from industrial foods to GM foods to Nano-food, concluding with a meal-in-a-pill to even possible the redesign of humans so energy comes in and out differently.  The other goes from organic food to energetic food to spiritual food.One takes materialism to its extreme, the other takes spirituality to its extreme. Both foundationally change evolution. Indeed, Sarkar imagines that humans will generally take over the duties of nature. However, he is gravely concerned about the politics of current science and the morality it operates under. A microvita science promises revolution (for example unleashing new forms of energy for galactic travel) in every possible sphere, but ultimately microvita is about inner happiness, bliss.

Is Microvita theory then the alter-ego of the Non-West? This is unlikely, rather, it appears to be an attempt to move the discourse forward and create the basis for a planetary civilization that has elements of the universal/globalist dimension as well as the communicative/inclusive vision of the future. Microvita starts with the local and the community but then moves far beyond offering not a reaction to modern science but a model of a new science.

However, most agriculturalists in the West would avoid, indeed, dismiss, such a discussion (no evidence of it and the theory is based on non-Western ideas, that is, it is culturally too dissimilar to understand). But if the West’s alter-ego phase expands, if the cultural creatives continue to grow as a group, then the ideas of Sarkar, and others, could become not words and world from the edge, but the dominant way we see the world.

Meal-in-a-pill or pass the microvita salad?


[1] Johan Galtung, “The future: a forgotten dimension,” in H Ornauer, H Wiberg, A Sicinki and J Galtung, eds, Images of the World in the Year 2000 (Atlantic Highlands, NJ: Humanities press, 1976).
[2] For more on youth futures, see Jennifer Gidley and Sohail Inayatullah, eds. Youth Futures: Comparative Research and Transformative Visions. Westport, CT., Praeger, 2001 (forthcoming).
[3] Johan Galtung, “Who got the year 2000 right – the people or the experts,” WFSF Futures Bulletin, 25, 4, (2000), 6.
[4] See Ziauddin Sardar, Thomas Khun and the Science Wars.Cambridge Books, Icon, 2000.
[5] Speech at Humanity 3000 Symposium. Seattle Washington. September 23-26th. See for details on this: Sohail Inayatullah, “Science, Civilization and Global Ethics: Can we understand the next 1000 years?” Journal of Futures Studies (November 2000). www.futurefoundation.org
[6] And clearly the unemployment figures for youth are no laughing matter, generally hovering around the 40-50% mark throughout the world, worse in poorer nations. In New Zealand, based on 1996 statistics, for example, 42.7% of the unemployed were between the ages of 15-25 while this group makes up 21.2% of the population. And as in most areas, minority groups are hit the hardest. In New Zealand, for example, maori and pacific islander youth have twice the unemployment rate as compared to Caucasian youth. See: www.jobsletter.org.nz.
[7] See, Ziauddin Sardar, Postmodernism and the Other: The New Imperialism of Western Culture. London, Pluto Press, 1998.
[8] www.who.org, See, World Health Organization, The Global Burden of Disease, 1996. http://www.who.int/.   See, Caring for Mental Health in the Future. Seminar report commissioned by the Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios. Kluver Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1992, 315.  See as well: The Global Movement for Active Ageing. http://www.who.org/ageing/global_movement/index.html.
[9] Johan Galtung,  On the Last 2,500 years in Western History, and some remarks on the Coming 500,” in The New Cambridge Modern History, Companion Volume, ed. Peter Burke (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979).
[10] Ibn Khaldun, The Muqaddimah (An Introduction to History). Translated by N.J. Dawood. (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1981). Fifth printing.
[11] Ajay Singh,” A Foretaste of the Food for Tomorrow,” Asiaweek (August 20-27, 2001), 72.
[12] Ibid., 73.
[13] Pitirim Sorokin, Social and Cultural Dynamics. Boston, Porter Sargent, 1970.
[14] See, Sohail Inayatullah, Situating Sarkar: Tantra, Macrohistory and Alternative Futures. Maleny, Australia and Ananda Nagar, Gurkul Publications, 1999.
[15] Doug Rushkoff, Children of Chaos. New York: Harper Collins, 1996.
[16] For more on this, see, Sohail Inayatullah, ed., The Views of Futurists: Volume 4 of the Knowledge Base of  Futures Studies. Melbourne, Foresight International, 2001. CD-ROM. Also see, Sohail Inayatullah and Paul Wilman, eds,. Futures Studies: Methods, Emerging Issues and Civilizational Visions. Brisbane, Prosperity Press, 1998.
[17] For more on these, see Sohail Inayatullah, “Structural Possibilities of Globalization,” Development (December, 2000).
[18] Ajay Singh, op cit, 73.
[19] See, P.R. Sarkar, Prama. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1987.
[20] Steve Diver, “Farming the Future,” in Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Fitzgerald, eds. Transcending Boundaries: P.R. Sarkar’s Theories of Individual and Social Transformation. Maleny, Australia and Ananda Nagar, India, Gurukul Publications, 1999.
[21] Ibid., 73.
[22] The texts are in the thousands now but among the best are the works of Deepak Chopra. The most scientifically respectable are the studies by Dean Ornish.
[23] For more on this, see, Sohail Inayatullah, “Your computer, Your conscience,” The Age (August 26, 2000), 6.
[24] The first case study is based on a sample of ten students who attended a month-long intensive course on civilization and the future. The course was held June 1999 at the Centre for European, University of Trier, Germany. After a four week introduction to critical and multicultural futures studies, the following scenarios emerged.
[25] See, for example, Sohail Inayatullah, “Futures Visions of Southeast Asia: Some Early Warning Signals,” Futures, 27,6, July/August (1995), 681-688;
[26] Richard Eckersley, “Portraits of Youth. Understanding young people’s relationship with the future,” Futures (Italics) 29 (1997): 247.
[27] Paul Ray and Sherry Ruth Anderson, The Cultural Creatives. New York, Harmony Books, 2000. See: www.culturalcreatives.org.  See review on the Net by Peter Montague.
[28] From the review by Peter Montague.
[29] Ibid.
[30] Johan Galtung, op cit.
[31] See Ashis Nandy and Giri Deshingkar, “The Futures of Cultures: An Asian Perspective,” in Eleonora Masini and Yogesh Atal, eds., The Futures of Asian Cultures. Bangkok, Unesco, 1993.
[32] For Sarkar, the future is contoured by Sarkar’s notion of four types of power (worker, warrior, intellectual and merchant or chaotic/service; cooercive/protective; religious/intellectual; and, remunerative).
[33] For Sorokin, the future is based on on culture and is derived from his ideas of  three types of systems (sensate focused on materialism, ideational focused on religion and integrated, balancing earth and heaven).
[34]  Immanuel Wallerstein, “World System and Civilization,” Development: Seeds of Change (1/2, 1986).
[35] Riane Eisler, Sacred Pleasure. San Francisco, HarperCollins, 1996.
[36] As mentioned earlier, A countervailing force are revolutions from the past – the imagined past of purity and sovereignty (economic sovereignty, racial purity, and idealized good societies), which (1) seeks to strengthen the nation state (to either fight mobility of individuals –immigration – or mobility of capital – globalization – or mobility of ideas – cultural imperialism and (2) seeks to create new nation states (ethno-nationalism).[37]Indeed, this is true across cultures. In one workshop in Malaysia, Islamic leaders (mullahs, scholars, youth, government servants) asserted that their preferred future for the Islamic world was based on the following:1.        self-reliance ecological communities electronically linked

2.        a global ummah (world community)

3.        gender parternship

4.     alternative, non-capitalist economics

[38] P.R. Sarkar, Ideal Farming – Part 2. Calcutta, Ananda Marga Publications, 1990.
[39] This has come across clearly in futures workshops in Asia. One particular  in Bangkok found that the issue was not just too many cars and the resultant pollution but the entire big-city outlook. Central to this outlook is the degradation of the rural.
[40] Andrew Nicholson, “Food for the Body, Mind and Spirit of All Being: A Neo-Humanist Perspective,” in Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Fitzgerald, Transcending Boundaries, 197.
[41] .Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar, “Renaissance in All the Strata of Life”,  Prajina Bharatii (March, 1986), 3-6.
[42] Diver, op cit, p. 211.
[43] Andrew Nicholson, op cit, pages 194-207.
[44] Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar, Ideal Farming:  Part 2, 9.
[45] Diver, op cit, 220.
[46] Ibid.

Terror and World System Futures (2001)

Sohail Inayatullah[1]

The events of September 11, 2001 should be seen in global human terms as a crime against humanity and not as a war against anyone. This is not only because those in the WTC come from many nationalities [2] but as well issues of solidarity and efficacy of response move us in that direction.. In this sense, the framework for dealing with terrorism must be from a strengthened World Court (in the context of a reformed United Nations), just as those responsible for Rwanda and Srebrenica have been dealt with (or will be dealt with).[3] That international law has not prevailed in this conflict tells us a great deal of the nature of the world system (it is still strategy and power that define and not the rule of law or higher culture). That he has not done so reinforces the nation-state and moves us away from world law, and, indeed, world peace. Years later we will look back at this costly mistake in dismay – what could have been and the path that was not followed. 

While Bush should be commended for the search for allies in the Islamic world, seeking an indictment within a world court framework would not have only granted increased legitimacy – for a campaign that has been increasingly seen like vengeance, (not to be mention economically motivated), and not justice – but created a precedence for the trial of future terrorists (of cyber, biological, airline and other types). 

The equation that explains terror is: perceived injustice, nationalism/religious-ism (including scientism and patriarchy), plus an asymmetrical world order.  One crucial note: explanation is analytically different from justification. These acts, as all acts of mass violence, can not be justified. 

The perceived injustice part of the equation can be handled by the USA and other OECD nations in positions of world power. This means authentically dealing with Israel/Palestine as well as the endless sanctions against Iraq. Until these grievances are met there can be no way forward.  Concretely this means making Jerusalem an international city, giving the Palestinians a state, and ensuring that there are peace keepers on every block in Israel-Palestine. It means threatening to stop all funding to both parties (the 10$ billion yearly from the USA to Israel, for example, and from Saudi Arabia and others to the Palestinian authority). It means listening to the Other and moving away from strict good/evil essentialisms, as Tony Blair has attempted to do in the Middle-East (or more appropriately South-West Asia).  Dualistic language only reinforces that which it seeks to dispel, continuing the language of the Crusades, with both civilizations not seeing that they mirror each other.  Indeed, at a deeper level, we need to move to a new level of identity. As  Phil Graham of the University of Queensland writes: “We are the Other. We have become alienated from our common humanity, and  the attribute, hope, image, that might save us – is  the “globalisation” of  humanity.”[4] 

However, Bush giving increased legitimacy to Ariel Sharon once again strikes most of the world as hypocritical. While Arafat has already lost any legitimacy he may have had as a leader of the Palestinian people, at least he is not under likely indictment for war crimes committed in Lebanon. For Bush to cozy up to one war criminal and attempt to eliminate others (Mullah Oman and Bin Laden) worsens an already terrible situation. 

MACROHISTORY 

From a macrohistorical and structural perspective, the USA is a capitalist nation with military might buttressing it. Osama Bin Laden and others are capitalists with military strength. Both are globalized, both see the world in terms of us/them, both use ideas for their position (extremists drawing on Islam; American intellectuals using linear development theory). Both are strong male. The USA builds twin towers, evoking male dominating architecture (as argued by Ivana Milojevic and Philip Daffara, of the University of the Sunshine Coast[5]) and the terrorists use the same phallic symbol – the airplane – to bring it down. Boys with toys with terrifying results for us all.  And with over 50% of Americans believing that Arab Americans should have special identity cards and the now defunct Taliban having legislated that hindus where special insignia on their clothes, these chilling similarities return us back to Europe sixty years ago. 

In the terms of spiral dynamics, as developed by Beck and others[6], these are both red forces (passion) fighting each other. The world is desperate for a Blue force, a higher order legal framework, to resolve the violence.  What has occurred however is the elimination of one red force by a combined effort of two other red forces, American and Northern Alliance. While the terrifying actions of the Taliban are paraded in propaganda machines throughout the world – the CNN lie machine – little mention of the Northern Alliance brutalities are trumpeted. Fortunately, there is more to this world than state power, and thus Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have focused on all the parties (but none yet on USA bombing mistakes – such as those costing the hands of Afghani children. Food packets being the same color as cluster bombs can be seen as unfortunate or as paradigmatic. While seeking indictments against US military personnel is going too far, Afghani victims of the war should have the right to legal redress, especially financial compensation. There can be no negotiation on this. Indeed, it is this fear of indictments that keeps the US away from a world court. 

Still at least at the official level, American and Western leaders have called for tolerance, for openness, for respecting Islam and muslims, for seeking terrorists, ie criminals, and not other categories. [7] Indeed, there have been legal cases against USA airlines for not allowing those of south asian and middle eastern ethnicity to board on planes.  This type of legal recourse was certainly not available to Abdul Haq, murdered by the Taliban  in late October.  Not surprisingly,  Osama Bin Laden  called  for a struggle against America and Jews (and now the United Nations), resorting to tired racist and hateful rhetoric, which in the long run will  bring little solace to those suffering – essentially the language and madness of conspiracy theory. Moreover, after the struggle against America and the Jews, who then will it be, the shias (which are already targeted by many Taliban supporters)? And then? Once the politics of exclusion begins, only ever increasing dogmatic futures can result.  Interestingly, far right wing hate groups in the USA have endorsed Osama Bin Laden’s action, arguing that the Federal Government and the world Jewish conspiracy is the problem (and as would be typical in male discourse, saying that while they agree with politics and tactics they would not desire them to marry their daughters and visa versa). 

However, Osama Bin Laden’s demand for rights for Palestinians must be heard. Like a child who is not heard, the shouting gets even louder. Or a body that is sick, getting sicker and sicker, calling attention  to the disease, and even killing the host (meaning the planet itself), unless there is some foundational and transformative change. While the USA and others prefer the chemotherapy and radiation approach to health (thus bombing appears natural, ie the USA exists in epistemological reductionism)  if we are interested in the long term, then perhaps the naturopathic  homeopathic or chiropractic might work much better. Can there be a truth and reconciliation commission?   The shouting is also getting louder as muslims are undergoing a religious renaissance, argues Riaz Hussan of Flinders University, Australia.[8] As they move toward increased religiosity, there is far less interest in extremist political positions, in those who live in the conspiracy discourse. Thus, Osama Bin Laden and other extremists find their pathways cut off, both from within the Islamic world and as well from the globalized multicultural world. Attacking old symbols of imperialism becomes the only way for them to survive. Creating new futures, new economics, new cultural texts, however, is the real challenge. 

What is especially challenging to the USA is that the demands from many muslims, including extremists, is not for money or territory but for the West (and nations claiming to be muslim) to change, to become less materialistic, more understanding of the plight of the poor, and more religious – and to return to their pre-Columbus borders. And, American public opinion appears to share this, with a majority calling for a return to a moral core, away from crass materialism (but not yet from jingoist war).  As Kevin Kelly has written, communism collapsed because the West offered something better. For extremism of the Islamic variety to collapse, more than McDonalds will have to be available.[9] 

The demands of the  West on Islamic nations generally has been the opposite: to become more materialistic, more growth-oriented in terms of the formal economy (but not more people) and more sensate, scientific – to develop.  From a macrohistorical perspective, each distorts what it means to be human by focusing on one dimension, and in extreme forms.  From an individual view, we can see how  those in the periphery develop a love-hate relationship with the center. The terrorists drinking, gambling, cavorting in strip clubs before the 11th of September shows how they  internalized what they struggled against. It also shows how Islam for them was strategic, a text that could be used to justify their own pathological worldview.  

In the long run, the events of September may be viewed as an isolated attack of terrorism, or they may be seen as: (1) events that clearly define who is the world’s hegemon ending the competing (Europe, East Asian, China) nation’s theory – Americanism, for now, and forever; (2) as a renewal of the Islamic world, with extremists, literalists, declining in popularity, and a new vision of Islamic modernity emerging, leading to the beginnings of a global ecumene; (3) a challenge by the poor to the world capitalist system, in effect, continuing the pattern of the decline of Communism, decline of grand religions and the collapse of capitalism. In the sense, as the system collapses, the question only future historians know is: what new forms of power will reign? What will emerge from the chaos?  A world state? 

The second part the equation is a shared responsibility, within the Islamic world especially, but essentially a dialogue of civilizations.  This means opening the gates of ijithad (independent reasoning and a capacity to adapt to change) instead of blind imitation.  And here, the crucial language is a dialogue within religions, between the hard and soft side. Certainly the Taliban argument that Muslims have a duty to fight with them in case of an attack on Afghanistan did not help matters.  The Taliban spent the last decade fighting against Muslims with USA indirect support (creating what is now know as the Afghan Arabs) –  why would anyone desire to support such a state? It is the failure of the modernist statist paradigm and support of tyrannical states by the West that pushes groups in this extreme direction.  Unfortunately, leadership in the Islamic world that can give legitimacy to the softer side has been silenced. As long as these leaders do not stand up and challenge dictatorships, they will indirectly participate in the creation of endless Osama Bin Laden’s. Anwar Ibrahim is the most potent symbol of a global muslim leader who seeks a dialogue within Islam and between Islam and the rest of the world in language and on terms of dignity and global ethics. Unfortunately, he remains falsely imprisoned in Malaysia and is symptomatic of the crisis in the Third World. 

While the hard side has clearly defined the future – every bomb dropped, every moment of bio-terror –  reduces the possibilities, this need not be the case.  There are alternatives.   The hard side (not the US military), to some extent, has become de-legitimized.  For example, even the right wing in the USA cringed when Pat Robertson blamed the terror attacks on God ceasing to provide protection to America because of the rise of  feminism, etc..  And Muslims everywhere, are hopefully, beginning to see that more terror will not work and is morally wrong. The Islamic leaders meeting in Qatar was a step forward. The message must be: the injustices are real but non-violent global civil disobedience (against companies, nations around the world, leaders)  is a far more potent method for long-term transformation. In Pakistan, the elimination of the extreme right wing has given hope the middle-class. The carrot of US$ has allowed Pakistan to move away from the rightist politics of General Zia. 

Unfortunately, the hypocrisy in the West does not help matters, and increases daily. Until the USA shuts down its own terror training camps, as for example, the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Co-operation (Whisc), change is likely to be incremental if at all. Whisc was called the School of Americas and argues George Monblot has trained more than 60,000 Latin American soldiers and policemen,” largely involved in death squads against their own people. For example, in Chile its graduates ran Pinochet’s secret police and his three main concentration camps and Human Rights Watch revealed that former pupils … had commissioned kidnappings, disappearances and massacres.”[10]Asks Monblot, provocatively,  should there be bombings of Georgia? Of course not, still double standards do not lead well to civilizational dialogue or world systems transformation. But others nations perhaps should lead the USA by example, showing that hypocrisy does not need to be how the game is played. 

The third part  of the equation really is what the social movements can and must continue, challenging the asymmetrical nature of the world system – the structural violence, the silent emergencies –  and pushing for a new globalization (of ideas, cultures, labor and capital, while protecting local systems that are not racist/sexist/predatory on the weak).  The social movements can through their practice and image of the future, show, and create a global civil society, challenging the twin towers of capital and military.  Real transformation, as in the changes in Eastern Europe, was  pushed through partly through the people’s movements. This process of creating a post-globalization world must continue.  

Resolving the equation of terror then must be both very specific and short term – crimes against humanity  cannot be tolerated – and must transform perceived injustices, the isms, and the structure of the world system, the long term civilizational perspective.  New Internationalist reminds us that on September 11, 2001, 24,000 people died of hunger, 6000 or so children were killed of diarrhea and 2700 or so children died from measles. [11] 

Of course, there are as well bio-psychological hormonal factors (testosterone and chakra imbalance)[12] that may account for the terrorist actions, but they do not always lead to such massive horrendous actions unless there is a historical and structural context.  Thus, terrorist as sociopath is an understandable description but there are deeper levels of analysis. 

SCENARIOS 

What then of the future? What are the likely trajectories? Here are four scenarios for the near and long-term future. These are written – a first draft was written september 20 – to map the future, to understand what is likely ahead, as well to create spaces for transformation.

(1) Back to Normal. After successful surgical strikes against Bin Laden and others, the USA returns to some normalcy. While trauma associated with air travel remains, these are seen as costs associated with a modern lifestyle, ie just as with cancer, heart disease and car accidents. The West continues to ascend, focused on economic renewal through artificial intelligence and emergent bio-technologies. More money, of course, goes to the military and intelligence agencies. The Right reigns throughout the World. Conflicts remain local and silent.  Over time, the world economy prospers once again and poorer nations move up the ranks just as the Pacific Rim nations have. Already the crusader look was presented at Jean-Charles de Castelbajac’s design collection and is considered likely to take off.[13] La vie est Belle (but just don’t look like you are from south asia or the middle east or have an Arabic name). 

(2) Fortress USA/OECD. Australia, for example, is already moving in that direction,  with basically a prison lock down ahead, especially to newcomers (who desire to enter the Fantasy island of the Virtual West escaping sanctions and feudal systems) and those who look different.  In the USA this is emerging through tighter visa restrictions and surveillance on foreigners, as well as, citizens. The carrot is of course usa citizenship being offered to informants from troubled spots. Of course, once they gain citizenship, they can spent a life time under surveillance. 

However, the costs for the elites will be very high given globalized world capitalism, and with aging as one the major long term issues for OECD. The Fortress scenario will lead to general impoverishment and the loss of the immigration innovation factor.  In the short run, it will give the appearance of security, but in the longer run, poverty will result, not to mention sham democracies with real power with the right wing aligned with the military/police complex.  Increasing airport security is a must but without root issues being resolved, terror will find other vehicles of expression. After all, fortresses are remembered, in history, for being overrun, not for successful defense against “others.” 

The response from the Islamic world will be a Fortress Islam, closing civilizational doors, becoming even more feudal and mullahist/wahbist, and forcing individuals to choose: are you with us or against us, denying the multiplicity of selves that we are becoming. The economy – oil – will remain linked but other associations will continue to drift away. 

(3) Cowboy War – vengeance forever (with soft and hard fascism emerging). Bush has already evoked the Wild West, and the Wanted – Dead or Alive image, indeed, even calling for a “crusade” against the terrorists. We have seen what that leads to all over the world, and the consequences are too clear for most of us. Endless escalation in war that will look like the USA has won but overtime will only speed up the process of  decline. They will remember the latest round, and the counter-response will be far more terrifying, with new sorts of weapons. In any case, with the USA military, especially the marines  rapidly increasing its percent of its members who are muslim (through conversion and demographic growth rates)[14], cowboy war will start to eat at the inner center. And once state terror begins, (or shall we say continues) there is no end in sight. Bush has already stated the assassination clause does not apply to Bin Laden and others since the USA is acting in self-defense. Cowboy war, again, will work in the short run. Crowds will chant USA, USA, until the next hit. The CIA can get back to business (already 1 billion has been appropriated and Bush has asked Congress to increase the Pentagon budget by 50 billion usa $), and continue to make enemies everywhere. Most likely, this will globally lead to an endless global “Vietnam”, well, in fact, an endless Afghanistan.[15]     

However, there are signs that Bush and others are listening to a tiny portion of their softer side and seeking to focus on the action of terror and not on Islam or any other wider category.[16]  They could use the sympathy from the rest of the world to “eliminate” terrorism (just as piracy in the high-seas was ended earlier) and, hopefully, in the longer run, seek solidarity with all victims of violence. The trauma from the bombing could lead Americans to genuinely understand the traumas other face in their day to day existence, to a shared transcendence, or it could lead to creating even more traumas. We can hope he – and all of us – keeps on listening and learning,  and with the war in Afghanistan over, the soft future may be possible. But if health in Afghanistan and the Islamic world is not resorted, there will be more trauma on the way. For All.  

Thus in this future, there will be no real change to the world system. Once all the   terrorists are caught –  well actually the perpetrators are already dead –  no changes in international politics or international capital will occur,  OECD states simply become stronger, while individuals become more fearful and anxiety prone.  A depression of multiple varieties is likely to occur (economic and psychological).  The depression will likely lead to anti-globalization revolts throughout the world, either leading to states to  bunker themselves in for the long run, or possibly – transform. Most likely, we will see a slow but inevitable movement toward global fascism – the soft hegemony of the carnivore culture (and anti-ecological in terms of land use) of McDonalds’s with the hard side of Stealth bombers.  The West will become a high-tech fortress, using surveillance technology to watch its citizens. Dissent is only allowable in peace times, and since the war against terrorism is for ever, submit or leave! 

However, “Fortress” in the long run may be difficult, as the globalization forces have already been unleashed and the anti-thesis in a variety of forms has emerged (the socialist revolt, decolonization movements, and even, terrorism). “Cowboy war” will likely only exacerbate the deep cleavages in the World Economy (that the richest 350 or so own the same as nearly 3 billion individuals). Indeed, a case can be made that this was Bin Laden preferred scenario. Bush attacks lead to destabilization in the Arab world, with the possibility of a nuclear accident and leading to extremists in Islamic nations rising up against modernists. 

Over time in this scenario, there may be a transition in who plays the central role in the world system, and is among the reasons the attacks have led to global anxiety – world system shifts are not pretty events or processes.  The periphery tends to see its future through the lenses of the Center; if the Center can be bombed, what future is there for the impoverished periphery? 

The deep divide cannot be resolved, however, merely by the “hearts and minds” strategy for this involves making traditionalists modernist, ie from loving land and God to loving money and scientific rationality. Rather, it involves moving from tradition to a transmodernity, which is inclusive of multiple but layered realities (the vertical gaze of ethics), moving toward an integrated planetary system (loving the  planet and moving away from exclusivist identities but transcending historical traumas). But can this transition occur? Can there be a Gaian polity? This is the fourth scenario. 

(4) Gaian Bifurcation. A Gaia of civilizations (each civilization being incomplete in itself and needing the other) plus a system of international justice focused not only on direct injustices but structural and cultural.  This would not only focus on Israel/Palestine (internationalizing the conflict with peace keepers and creating a shared Jerusalem)  as well as ending the endless sanctions in Iraq, but highlighting injustices by third world governments toward their own people (and the list here is endless, Burma,  Malaysia’s Mahathir, India/Pakistan/Kashmir). The first phase would be  far more legalistic, developing a world rule of law system with the context would be a new equity based multicultural globalization. This aspect would have an hard edge, developing a global police force and a military force. The second phase would be values driven, moving from military to peace keeping to anticipatory conflict resolution. In this phase, this future, the  USA would move to authentically understanding the periphery, seeking to become smaller, globally democratic. This means transforming the world system, focusing on a post-globalization vision of the future, and moving to world governance. Specifically, this means: [17] 

·      human and animal rights;

·      indexing of wealth of poor and rich on a global level, that is, economic democracy – employee ownership;

·      prama[18]based- creating a dynamic balance, between regions, rural/city, seeing  the world economy through the ecological metaphor but with technological innovation;

·      self-reliance, ecological, electronically linked communities (becoming more important than states);

·      gender partnership;

·      and a transformed United Nations, with increased direct democracy, influence of the social movements and transparency within multinational corporations. 

It means moving away from the modernist self and the traditional self, and creating a transmodern self (spiritual, integrating multiplicities and future-generations oriented). 

In terms of epistemology, this means moving from the strategic discourse, which has defined us for hundreds of years, to the emergent healing discourse (within, toward others, toward the planet, and for future generations).   Healing means seeing the earth as an evolving body. What is the best way to heal then, through enhancing the immune system, listening to the body, or through massive injection of drugs? 

In workshops  run around the world, Islamic, Western and East Asian nations, for example, this alternative future emerges as a desired future. Muslim leaders in a March 1996 seminar in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on the Ummah in 2025  desired a future that was based on: 

·      gender cooperation

·      a cooperative economic system (and not capitalism)

·      self-reliance ecological electronically linked communities (glo-cal), and, a

·      a world governance system 

This perspective appears to be generally shared by  the cultural creatives, an emerging demographic category in the West (www.culturalcreatives.org) In the Non-West as well there is a desire to move away from feudal structures but retain spiritual heritage, to be “modern” but in a different way.

DIRECTION 

To move toward this direction, ultimately means far more of a Mandela approach, what Johan Galtung is doing via the transcend (www.transcend.org) network, than the traditional short term Americanist approach. 

Indeed, 9/11 must be seen in a layered way. How it is constructed defines the solution. If we use the piracy discourse, then  a global police force must be developed to combat terrorism. If, however, it is a natural consequence of globalization, of a shadow NGO attacking a world hegemon, then the focus should be on the pathologies of globalization. If  this is essentially about injustice, about deeper worldviews being extinguished by modernity, then structural transformation and conversations with the other are far more important.. Depth peace is needed. While there may need to be short term actions against criminals, rehabilitation requires changes of culture and of economic opportunities, ie dismantling of the interstate system which allows capital to travel but not labour, and certainly restricts ideas from the periphery to travel and circulate freely. 

In this sense, the fourth scenario is about the long term and about depth. This fourth scenario is a vision of a global civil/spiritual society. It stands in strong opposition to the declared nation-statist position and the extremist groups all over the world. It challenges the strategic modernist worldview as well as the short termism of most governments. 

The first scenario continues the present; the second is a return to the imagined past; the third the likely future; and the fourth, the aspirational .  This means moving beyond both the capitalist West and the feudalized, ossified non-West (and modernized fragmented versions of it) and toward an Integrated Planetary Civilization. 

On a personal note, in utopian moments, I can see this civilization desperately trying to emerge at rational and post-rational levels,  and there are huge stumbling blocks – perceived injustices, the isms,  the asymmetrical world order, and national leaders unwilling to give up their “god-given” right to define identity and allegiance. 

Do we have the courage to create this emergent future? As we move into 2002, the aspirational future moves further and further away – the window of opening for cultural dialogue, for understanding deeper issues, has all but closed. But it will open again. Let us hope that opening does not come in the same fashion as 9/11 did. And I hope we will learn from all the mistakes committed this time.


[1] Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan; Sunshine Coast University, Maroochydore; and Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane.  Co-editor, Journal of Futures Studies (www.ed.tku.edu.tw/develop/jfs), Associate Editor, New Renaissance (www.ru.org). s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au, www.metafuture.org. Inayatullah was born in Pakistan and raised in Indiana, New York, Geneva, Islamabad, Kuala Lumpur, and Honolulu. 

[2] Around 500-700 Pakistanis are presumed to be missing, as based on data from SBS Television Australia and Pakistan’s The News. It is not only Americans that is being attacked by certainly Muslims (possibly around 900 or so in the WTC and  some in the Pentagon, perhaps, not to mention attacks of terror toward Muslims in the last 15 years from all sources) as well. As of September 23, the figure is 200 pakistanis. http://www.pak.gov.pk/public/transcript_of_the_press_conferen.htm. By February 2002, this figure has been revised downwardly to 3000. The number of non-Americans killed is unknown.
[3] As Tony Judge and others have argued, www.uia.org)
[4] Personal comments. September 18, 2001.
[5] Personal comments. September 16, 2001.

[6] Jo Voros of Swinburne University offers these thoughts (email, October 8, 2001):What’s really going on (in Spiral language) is that purposeful-authoritation higher-order-seeking BLUE is activating its fundamentalist side and is becoming entrenched on both sides of the conflict. And each side of the conflict is basically talking about God being on *their* side (the classic  Higher Authority invocation) therefore, the “others” are unjust, unrighteous and deserve to be damned forever. BLUE needs a clear-cut right and wrong; by default “we” are right and “they” are wrong, which is the dynamic now playing out on either side.

Therefore, we have the US talking about “bringing to justice” (punitive arm of BLUE) those responsible for WTC attacks. The US talk of a “crusade” is a RED-BLUE effect; unrestrained RED asserts power and domination, often with violence, and when aligned with the “righteousness” provided by the higher authority, this violence is assumed to be righteous, resulting in violence glorified, allowed and exalted in the name of the Higher Authority. This is the same dynamic as on the West Bank between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Once you strip out the context-specific content, the same dynamical process is easily seen. On the facing side, the fundamentalist Taliban are saying the same sort of stuff — that it is the US who are terrorists and criminals, and thus unrighteous, etc — and invoking “jihad” — the semantic equivalent of “crusade”. The RED is starting to flow, both figuratively as a Spiral Dynamics vmeme, and as the blood of the now dying in vain. *sigh*

So, what we really need in this conflict is a super-ordinate Even Higher Authority to provide “good” authority (as opposed to the excessive fundamentalist form present on both sides) and bring the two sides to heel. Unfortunately, this is not present on Planet Earth. Each side claims sanction and legitimation from the Ultimate Higher Authority (God), so any non-God authority is, by definition, beneath this level.

[7] Of course, one friend of mine, commented that if he did know me, because of my name and facial features, he would have problems flying on the same plane as me. Another commented: “They are everywhere” (meaning arabs/south asians/muslims).
[8] See Hasan’s Faithlines: Muslim Conceptions of Islam and Society. Oxford University Press (forthcoming).
[9] Kevin Kelly, “The New Communism,” The Futurist (January-February, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2002), 22. Writes Kelly: “I think we need to enlarge Western civilization so that we have something young Islamic believers want. Providing it will be the only way, and the only honest way, to triumphh.” (22)
[10] George Monblot, “Looking for a terror school to bomb? Try Georgia, USA. Sydney Morning Herald (November 1, 2001), 12.
[11] New Internationalist 340, November 2001, 18-19.
[12] In the Indian health system, there are seven chakras. When the chakras are imbalanced, then negative emotions and behaviors can result. Yoga, meditation and diet are ways to balance the bodies hormonal system.
[13] Sally Jackson, “Star-spangled fervour in style,” The Australian (October 31, 2001), 15.

[14] Ayeda Husain Naqvi writes in “The Rise of the Muslim Marine” (NewsLine, July 1996, 75-77) that while hate crimes against Muslims rise all over the world, surprising the US military is one of the safest places to be a Muslim. Indeed, Qasem Ali Uda forecasts that in 20 years, 25% of all US marines will be Muslim. Given the incredible influence that that former military personnel have on US policies (ie a look at Who’s Who in America shows that military background and law school education are the two common denominators on the resumes of America’s most influential people), inclusion is the wisest policy.

[15] I am indebted to Mike Marien, of the World Future Society for this insight.
[16] As the conflict matures, Colin Powell and others have understood that surgical strikes as well as seeing the other in far less essentialized terms (the many Islams, the many Afghanistans) is crucial for strategy and success. Bush entering a mosque, without shoes, and publicly stating that this is a war against terrorists and not Muslims are all excellent steps forward. In addition, protection of minorities in the USA against direct violence is as well to be lauded. Even his willingness to change the title of the American Infinite Justice operation to Enduring Freedom confirms that he is getting some good advise, or rapidly growing up.  However, if total lack of capacity to understand the role of honor in Pushtun culture once again shows that Americanism can be dangerous for the world, in that complexity, other ways of knowings are not only not misunderstood but not seen as relevant at all. An approach that understoon Pushtun culture would search for honorable ways for them to withdraw from this conflict.
[17] See, Sohail Inayatullah, Understanding Sarkar: The Indian Episteme, Macrohistory and Transformative Knowledge. Leiden, Brill, 2002.
[18] Prama means inner and outer balance.  For more on this, see, Sohail Inayatullah, Sitatuing Sarkar. Maleny, Gurukul Publications, 1999.

Are Women Transforming Organisations? (2000)

Primitive descriptions of the “manager of the future” uncannily match those of female leadership, writes futurist Ivana Milojević from Brisbane.

“Consultants try to teach male managers to relinquish the command-and-control mode. For women that came naturally – many of the attributes for which women’s leadership is praised are rooted in women’s socialised roles. The traditional female value of caring for others – balanced with sufficient objectivity – is the basis of the management skill of supporting and encouraging people and bringing out their best, a skill now highly valued by management experts.”

Working at the University of Queensland, Ivana Milojevic has a special interest in feminist futures, which she has been researching with data from Australian as well as global sources. She argues that while women have come a long way toward taking their place on an equal footing with men at work, there is still a long way to go. However much of this ground may be covered by organisations moving forward to meet feminine values, rather than women fighting for recognition in organisations.  

Another key factor is the strong role of women in developing small business, and creating job opportunities in small enterprises for themselves and others.

“In the future, institutions will be organised according to the networking model (as opposed to the pyramid structure),” she said.  “The top responsibility of managers will be creating a nourishing environment for personal growth, providing holistic development and motivation. The management style of women is ideally suited to these people priorities.”

More than half of women business owners (53%) emphasize intuitive or “right-brain” thinking. This style stresses creativity, sensitivity and values-based decision making. Seven out of ten (71 per cent) male business owners emphasize logical or “left-brain” thinking. This style stresses analysis, processing information methodically and developing procedures.

Women business owners’ decision-making style is more “whole-brained” than their male counterparts, that is, more evenly distributed between right and left brain thinking.

According to the National Foundation for Women Business Owners, women business owners are more likely than all businesses to offer flextime, tuition reimbursement and job sharing.  Women business owners tend to share their business’ profit with employees at a much earlier stage than other businesses:  nearly twice as many woman-owned firms employing fewer than 25 employees (14%) have set up such programs compared to all small firms with 20 or less employees (8%).

“Forty per cent of women-owned businesses offer flexitime, while only 30 per cent of all small firms do, which suggests that women business owners are more likely than all business owners to accommodate the special work needs of their employees.”

“This gap widens as business size increases, with 40 per cent of women-owned firms with 25 or more employees offering flexitime, compared with only 19 per cent of all firms of approximately the same size.”

Involvement in the professional development of employees is another area where women-owned businesses differ in the benefits opportunities provided. Twenty-one percent of women-owned businesses offer tuition reimbursement programs, compared with only 8 per cent of all small businesses.

“The employee benefits offered by women-owned businesses make it evident that these firms are not only a powerful economic force, but are also an important and influential social force,” says Ivana Milojevic.

“At every stage in their businesses, even when the organisations are young or small, women business owners provide their employees with a comprehensive package of benefits which set the standard for the rest of society.”

Patricia Aburdene and John Naisbitt, authors of Megatrends for Women (1992), agree that the trend is toward a women’s leadership style, based on openness, trust, ongoing education, compassion and understanding. Women are more likely to succeed because women admit they need help and surround themselves with good people: they are cautions, strategic risk takers, whose resourcefulness and resolve increase as circumstance become more difficult (this from a study by Avon Corporation and an American based research firm).

Qualities usually mentioned include attitudes towards team building and consensus. For example, a study of 550 city managers in the US showed that women were more likely than their male counterparts to incorporate citizen input, facilitate communication and encourage citizen involvement in their decision-making.
_____________

panel – WOMEN AT WORK

Women-owned businesses are now employing more people in the United States than the Fortune 500 companies worldwide.

The number of women-owned firms in the United States has jumped 103 percent from 1987 to 1999. Today there are 9.1 million, representing 38 percent of all businesses and employing more than 27.5 million people.

In 1987 two million female-owned businesses had $US25bn in sales. One year later, five million female-owned businesses had $US83bn in sales.

Top growth industries for women-owned businesses between 1987 and 1999 were construction, wholesale trade, transportation/ communications, agribusiness, and manufacturing.

Women-owned businesses are as financially sound and creditworthy as the typical firm in the U.S. economy, and are more likely to remain in business than the average US firm.

Around the world,  women-owned firms comprise between one-quarter and one-third of the businesses in the formal economy, and are likely to play an even greater role in informal sectors.

In Japan, the number of women managers is still small (around 300,000), but it has more than doubled over the past 10 years.

In Australia, the proportion of women working in their own business is also growing. Women working in their own business in Australia numbered 216,300 in 1983-84 and 272,400 in 1989-90, an increase of approximately 26 per cent.

World as City: City as Future (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

Imagining the Multicultural Futures of the City

What will the cities of the future look like? Is there one clear future for the city or are there a range of alternative futures?

First the immediate data and most forecasts point to one overwhelming trend – the urbanization of the planet, Blade Runner writ large. This is a long term historical trend but now reaching to a point where begin to serious imagine Earth itself as a city. The data is such that by 2020, half the world’s population is expected to live in an urban environment.

But why?  First, there are few jobs in the farms, and the jobs there pay comparative less than jobs in the cities. Farms all over the world are in trouble with governments having to subsidize farming incomes. This is because of automation but also because agricultural development does not figure high in most nations economic plans.

But the economic rationale is not the only reason. We only have to go back a 100 or so years to search for the mythic roots – it is of going to London town and find streets paved with gold. While rural communities are successfully able to provide for basic needs (at least when the harvest is good, when nature does not play tricks), it has been unable to provide for wealth creation. Rurality means that one lives according to the seasons – ups and downs – one doe snot enter the long term linear secular trend of wealth accumulation. It is in the city where this can happen, riches can be earned.  The city then becomes the dream fulfiller, where the future can be realized.

And there are lock-ins. Once one family goes to the city, others follow suit. Once others follow suit, economies of scale take over – along with the factory worker, one needs the brick layer, eventually, service industries and financial industries as well. More population and more wealth.

But this is too simple, cities are also packed with the poor, who now live in misery, that is, while in the farm they were poor, still poverty was sustainable – there was a sharing of wealth. But with the city comes the classic anomie, fragmentation, alienation.

And yet we rarely return to the farm instead of as imagined places of peace and comfort. My own memory of  the village is community, of waking up together with other villagers, eating parata (Pakistani deep fried bread), and sitting around gupshupping (gossiping and storytelling). Yet I rarely go back to the village, instead preferring to find community, not through the straitjacket of by genetic birthplace, but through intended communities. I prefer to find community by creating it. It is the city that best accomplishes this. Or does it?
Interlude: as I write this article at Taipei International Airport, the model Cindy Crawford walks by – city life is now glamour life, even economy class passengers can participate in the excitement of stardom.

But return to the village matters little, it is a fictional memory, it gives us a benchmark. It allows us to see our progress – we can see how far we have progressed from rurality and at the same time, in our mind we retain a sense of safety, we can return to the past.

Instead of paratas, village songs and chirping birds, we have chosen  Blade Runner or modern day Bangkok/LA.  And as the Net spreads its tentacles, instead of Blade Runner as our guiding image, it is the Matrix that represents the future of the city, having forgotten the past, we now enter a world in which we no longer can distinguish what is real and what is illusory. But who will be the redeemer, who like Keanu Reeves, saves us, showing us the light? So far the redeemers, those who have called for a return to the village have only brought more death, Pol Pot being the most famous example.

The likely future of the city then is an erasure of our million year history, whether the Sumerians or whomever one desires to claim began the urbanization process knew it would lead to this is doubtful. But our rural history appears to have reached its end.

Different futures

Yet if our aspirations in any way reflect our possible, if not probable, futures, then the Earth as City may not be ultimately occur, agency has not been lost.

In dozens of futures visioning workshops across the world – Taiwan, Germany, New Zealand, Malaysia, Pakistan, the USA – where participants are asked to in detail describe their preferred futures, two images are dominant.

The first is the globalist scenario – a jet plane for all, unrestricted movement of capital and labour as well as ideas and news – not a utopia but certainly a good society where feudalism, hierarchy, nationalist power break down and humans function as autonomous fulfilled beings. The market is primary but a globalized worlds allows endless associations – nongovernmental organizations, religious affiliations, and other forms of identity currently unimaginable. With scarcity less of a problem, who we are and how we express this changing identity become far more crucial. The city becomes a site of intention. Freedom is realized (insert painting one – from www.futurefoundation.org).

As dominant as this first future is a second. This future is far less concerned with movement and more focused on stability. But the stability does not come from stasis but from connection – relationship with self, with loved one, with community and with nature.  Wealth is no longer the crucial determining factor of who we are rather it is our capacity to love and be loved, to not live to transform the world but to live in harmony in the world.  Rurality is not tangential to this image – indeed, while this image does not necessarily mean a return to the farm, it does mean a move away from industrial modes of production (that is, high fat, meat based diets and the accompanying waste disposal paradigm) and postmodern modes of production (genetically modified foods) to an organic, recyclable mode of eating and living.

Technology should not be seen as a defining factor. In the former, technologies leads to greater wealth, to multiple selves (a geneticized self, an internet self, for example), to access to endless information. In the latter, technologies are important insofar as they lead to greater communication and greater employment. Technology creating new spaces for human community is the key for the latter vision of the future.

Historically, the image of the city has gone from the city beautiful, focused on parklands, clean streets to the city ecological.  But ever since the 1964 New York World Fair a different image of the city has become dominant. This is the high-tech city, or what now call the smart-city. The city that senses and thinks, that can monitor the needs of its citizens – when trees are about to interfere with power lines, when criminals are about to loot a store. However, a smart city, a sim city, is also about surveillance.

Brisbane in Australia has over 100 cameras in its central business district. These both protect yet they also change one’s relationship with power. One is always seen.  But can a smart city liberate us from our fears and allow us to become in fact more human? A smart city at the beginning consists of smart houses but as well humans with smart bots, always on wearable computers which amplify our senses – the wireless revolution that has already begun with teenagers in Japan.. These bots are likely  health focused, helping us choose the right products that match our values (ecological products or low-fat foods, or products made by corporations that treat other cultures well, that are good corporate citizens). But they will also help us find directions, let us know the sales going on (if indeed, we will still shop outside the Net), and where our friends out, becoming true knowledge navigators.  While the image of the American cartoon The Jetsons is perhaps an apt image, we can ask what is that image missing. Yes, life will be more efficient – automation, perfect information, however, who will be excluded? Will our behavior become regimented, that is, with smartness be based on linear reductionist notions of the world, or more on complexity, that is, on a  paradigm that smartness comes from difference, from learning about others.

Exclusion if often central to a planned city. Planned cities are designed cities, rationally created with neat rows of houses, clear demarcations of industrial areas, prostitution areas, grave sites and shopping areas.  The Pakistani capital Islamabad is one such planned city. Designed in the 1960’s by Ford Foundation planners, the image that guided them was the American city, pivotally, the vacuum cleaner. However, with cheap labour vacuum cleaners were not a necessity. But where to put the sweapers. As it turned out the moved to Islamabad as well, building kathchi abadis.  These temporary mudbrick houses became a sore site for planners so they built a wall around them.  This becomes the question: what are we walling?

Geneva has taken a different tack. Once a classical traditional white Euro city, in the last thirty years, it has transformed beyond belief. The city looks multicultural with cafes lined with African, middle-eastern, Italian, Indian and fast food restaurants. Public life is community life with dozens of cultures mixing. While most swiss consider Geneva an abheration, others have made peace with multiculturalism by moving to the other side of the river, the traditional unicultural side.

But ultimately there will be no other side of the river. The only hope will be a multicultural city. Inclusion.

Thus, along with the smart city as a guiding image of the futures, comes the multicultural city. But what is the multicultural city.  First it means city spaces are not segregated by race or gender, one should not be able to identify an ethnic area, or at least not see in a negative way. Second, citizens should feel they are part of the city, that they are not discriminated against, especially by those in authority. The actions of public officials and employees are crucial here. The Net of course helps greatly by hiding our gender, accent and colour.  But a multicultural city is also about incorporates others ways of knowing, of creating a complex and chaotic model of space such that the city does not necessarily match the values of only one culture – mosques with temples with banks. City design not only done by trained city planners but as well by feng shui experts, searching for the energy lines, decoding which areas are best for banking, what for play, what for education – essentially designing and building for beauty that helps achieve particular functions broadly defined.

Writes Starhawk in her The Fifth Sacred Thing: [1]

The vision of the future is centred in the city; it’s a vision where people have lots of different religions, cultures and subcultures but they can all come together and work together. It starts with a woman climbing a hill for a ritual and visiting all the different shrines of these different religions and cultures that are up on the sacred mountain. To me that is what I’d like to see. Culture is like a sacred mountain that’s big enough for many, many different approaches to spirit.

Interlude: I am now in Pakistan at the Islamabad Club. A western style golf club complete with swimming pools, fancy waiters and tennis courts. We are about to have tea when the Ahzan – call to prayer begins.  My all the tables is a carpet. Seven people leave their tea, bend down and begin their prayer. No one is bothered that the elitest secularism of the Club has been broken with prayer, indeed, they merge together. After prayer, dinner starts.

Future-Orientation

A multicultural city  is not just concerned about the present but it is future oriented, concerned with all our tomorrows. City planning meeting should for example attempt to keep on chair open. This empty chair could represent future generations, their silent voices represented symbolically. Each political and administrative decision needs to factor in the impact on future generations. Most immediately – five to twenty years – for Western cities, this means the rise of the aged. While the gloss is of happy ageing people, the data currently is that most elderly will live miserable lives, healthy enough to live, not sick enough to die. They will search for community, their children having moved away (unless the Net leads to the return to the home, the place of birth), for meaning and for ease of movement. A smart city will do a great deal in creating such a reality. But smartness will have to be with compassion especially has many of the aged will be mentally ill.

Net living will not make the city any less important. Indeed, home offices make communities far more important. Every move towards efficiency accentuates the need for connection.  Working from home highlights the need for social contact outside of the office space. Work has not just been about making money but about falling in love with office mates, gossiping, going shopping at lunch, making new friends – about living. Telecommuting, while saving money for any organization, raises new issues for workers. Their relationship with their husband or wife changes. Children are no longer far away at school, they are home in the afternoon. For men, housework cannot be exported to their wives since now home the pressure to share in house activities increases.

Anticipating the future of the city as well means asking residents what type of city they want in the future. While most individuals are content with avoiding big-picture national politics, many do care about their local environment – pollutants, level of development, types of parks, quality of schools. However, most city planning exercises are problem based, asking citizens to list the main problems with politicians running on platforms that will solve such problems. However, anticipation means helping residents consider the alternative futures of the city.  This means an interactive process wherein residents suggest visions of the future which then are developed into scenarios by planners which are then fed back to citizens. These visions must be based on their preferred futures, their nightmare scenarios and the likely scenario if nothing is done, if historical trends continue. This process both empowers citizen and leader alike, it also makes it possible to not such plan the ideal city but envision the ideal city.

The interactive process must include expert information on current trends, using mapping technologies to show how the city is currently divided by income, religion and other factors. These maps are already available in many OECD nations. These maps can then be projected outwards with citizens imagining different visualization of the future. Data with vision with conversation with leadership can create a powerful mix of creating cities we truly want.  While the current process of benchmarking – choosing best practice cities and discerning how one’s own city is different from them – is useful and has led to marked improvement in Asian cities, our imagination of what can be is not unleashed. City space is of course about access to water, hospital, safe streets, efficient garbage collection and jobs. But it is also about our imagination of who we can be.

A future-oriented city is thus a democratic city in the sense of deep participation about the future. It can be multicultural in the sense of better representation, of including others’ voices as well as their cultural frameworks. It is smart in the sense of using technology to measure how well we are doing, to provide benchmarks with reference to our ideal city.

Interlude: I remember a conversation in Brisbane, Australia a few years ago with recent refugees arrivals. They said on the drive from the airport, they thought that either the entire population  had gone to a football match or their had been a neutron bomb. Eventually after a week they realized that unlike traditional societies or walkable cities, suburban cities are people-absent after work. Everyone goes home to create community through the mediation of television. The only people walking the streets were southern europeans and asians, who walked nightly and were used to greater populations.   In the drive to modernity, community had been lost. Standardized television community had been gained. The cost: a lonely, fragmented population.

The great fear in creating the smart city is that we will become more socially isolated, meaning that we will die of silent heart attacks in our homes. Of course, the smart house will relay to the smart hospital that someone has died in house number 4 on Main Street. An ambulance will be dispatched and the body quickly wisked away.  Eventually, this will not be even necessary. The smart house will take care of the body, disposing it, arranging a cyber burial and finding a cyberplot. Birth to death will be automated.

But in the background will be our mythic longing for the village.

Can we create then a global village? So far we have shown the capacity to create the global city. Perhaps one day the entire Earth will be a city. It will look stunning from the Moon and Mars. But McLuhan’s vision will always remains with us. Unrealized. Calling us.

Leadership and the multicultural challenge 

The multicultural image challenges us to accept difference, to see the entire planet as a global neighborhood. It means then being responsible for one’s street, virtual or real. The multicultural city also challenges us to develop our capacities for tolerance, for dealing with sounds and smells of others. There have been periods in history when different cultures and civilizations have been in profound contact, where there has been paradigms of pluralism. And yes marauders and local politicians have invaded these sacred spaces, creating a politics of exclusion instead of an ethics of inclusion.

The 20th century will be remembered for both tendencies – exclusion and inclusion

Interlude: Novi Sad, Serbia – even as Serbian refugees  from Croatia and Kosovo stream in changing the demographics of the city and as poverty continues to rise (with no end in sight of Milosevic or sanctions) – is a livable city, and remains a multicultural one as well, a beautiful city. Everything is in walkable distance, plays, street theater continue, and citizens present a noble face even as their nation dies.  Albanians  are still safe even though the war in Kosovo has strained community relations. In contrast was Srebrenica a few years ago, where 7500 men and youth Bosnian Muslims were murdered by the Bosnian Serbs, or Sarajevo which was pummeled by Serb sniper fire.  I feel sadness for Novi Sad’s citizens seeing their dreams of socialist utopia degenerate into fascist nationalism. Bridges destroyed. But most of all for their diminished power in creating the eclectic inclusive future many there desire.

Multiculturalism has to have a broader context, either a deep internal ethics or a broader ideology of inclusion. However, the context pivots on leadership. Where leadership has used difference to rise in local and national power, the visions and histories of others has been the first causality, and ultimately ignorance has returned to destroy culture itself, the host and others. Where leadership has focused not on ethnic differences but empowered individuals to transcend their petty differences and create a better society for all, civilization has flourished.

Gene therapy and germ line engineering are likely to create even more disharmonies between cultures, where access to genetic advantage will become as important as access to wealth, education and technology. New forms are species are likely to challenge the limits of our tolerance, and, if humans become a minority in the artificial future, we are likely to challenge their tolerance of imperfection. And while bodies can perhaps be perfected, love and tolerance can only be learned in two ways: trauma leading to fear leading to collapse leading  (and the unending hell of revenge) or through transcendence. Moving to a higher plane of consciousness.

Without an image of transcendence  we die as a civilization. A multicultural city creates spaces for difference, but for it to unify the polarity of  village/city, it will have to transcend difference, seize upon an image of the future which enables and ennobles us to go beyond limitations.


[1] Starhawk, Envisioning the future in M.J. Ryan, The fabric of the Future. Berkely, Conari Press, 1998, 303.

Health Futures for Queensland, Australia (2000)

By Sohail  Inayatullah

Will health-bots monitor your caloric intake, warning you if you’ve eaten too much or not exercised enough?  

Which medical model is likely to dominate – the democratic, the professional or the corporate? Can medicare continue or will globalization end Australia’s unique universal health care system?

How will the internet change how patients get information about their illnesses? Will doctors become knowledge navigators, helping patients decipher what is gold and what is crap? Will they be able to accommodate the dramatic rise in patients using alternative therapies such as chiropractic, acupuncture and meditation?

Will general practitioners even be needed as genomics and other dramatic technological advances repair defective genes? In twenty years, will general practitioners be seen as quaint practitioners of complementary medicine?

What will general practice look like in twenty years?

On February 11 and 12th,  2000 over 140 health professionals met for three days at the Brisbane Novotel to ponder these and other questions related to the health futures of Queensland and Australia. Professionals consisted of general practitioners and senior managers of the various health divisions in Queensland. Included also were directors of Queensland Department of Health, futurists, academics, pharmaceutical representatives and members of the community.

Participants were treated to a day and half of lectures on (1) systems approaches to international health,  (2) impacts of the internet, the human genome project, ageing and complementary therapies on general practice (3) funding issues from the perspective of the Federal Government, (4) the role of state divisions in health care, (5) rural health care, and (6) perspectives from the hospitals.

The intent of these lectures, however, was not merely to provide the latest information but to help general practitioners and division chiefs develop a map of the future of the health care. To do this, along with plenary sessions there were eight small group sessions facilitators by futurists. In these groups the drivers of change were identified. From these drivers a systems map of how each subsection of the health system interacted with others (for example, how funding impacts who gets health care and through what delivery mechanism) was developed. This in turn was used to develop possible and probable scenarios. Once the alternatives were explored, participants articulated their preferred vision of the future. From this, a backast – a memory of the future – was developed so as to deduce which trends and events are likely to create the preferred future. The concluding session then asked participants to personally commit to action steps that reflected their preferred future.  Considerations of the future were thus central to action steps today.

Drivers and Scenarios

As expected the drivers were: technology, funding issues and the costs of health care, globalisation, ageing of society, consumer demands, availability and distribution of resources, and expectations of the future.

Participants developed scenarios that can be divided into four distinct categories.

1.     High-technology scenarios. They were called: digital doc, dr. robot, medi-net, IT and Star Trek.  Of the five groups that reported this scenario, three considered these negative scenarios and two considered them positive. Features of this future included: 1. Germ line engineering (eliminating genetic defects for current and future generations), genomics (customized gene therapy), robodocs and smart cards and health-bots (interactive wearable computers that monitor one’s health). Generally, participants believed that the new technologies are likely to be patient-led.  Doctors, while overwhelmed in this future, become far more holistic in their treatment, focusing on what technology does not give patients.

2.     Corporatist scenarios. These were called: Big business ownership, corporatist, $ and corporate piracy. No group saw it as a preferred scenario although one or two individuals in various groups did find it preferable. Generally, loss of control was feared, and, even while there were some gains for consumers (lower cost and seamless service) gps believed that overall the quality of health delivery would decline in this future since cost considerations would become primary and managerialism would take over as the dominate organizational mode.  However, one group did argue that instead of other corporations taking over gps, they foresaw a “future where gps develop a national corporation which has equity in, and market control over, services such as radiology, pharmaceuticals, nursing homes and private hospitals. Gps would then lead the money instead of follow the money as the do now”.

3.     Worst case scenarios. These were largely around the axis of power. They were called: Drone, Mots (More of the Same), Big Brother and Capitation. In each case, doctors lost their autonomy and felt disempowered. For example, in the Big Brother scenario, “technological developments play into the hands of centralists by both increasing specialist monopolies and also eroding the meaningful relationships that are at the core of the GP Ethic”. Clinical governance creates a hegemonic culture wherein gps lose their maneuverability in creating the futures they desire.

4.     Network/multi-door. This future consisted of a more diverse but strongly connected system. The titles given were: back to values, quality and network, multi-door, division cooperative, consumer ownership, GP ownership and medi-network. The central point in these networks/multiple doors was that doctors remained the gatekeepers with divisions or associations playing a systems coordinating role. For example, some of the roles the divisions played were: “advocacy with local services, research interpretation (separating the gold from the crap on the web), brokerage role through virtual amalgamations)” as well as a funding role. All these were considered positive. In this future, community members felt part of the system, indeed, this scenario was gp and community/patient-led.

5.     Preferred Scenario

The preferred scenario had a range of titles. These included: multi-door (flexible, multiple integrated systems, doctors as gatekeepers and knowledge navigator), futuretopia (wisdom, consultation with the community, regional governing systems, empowerment of patients, focus on quality of life), Community Care (community instead of hospital focus, gp as gatekeeper, use of smart bots, practices staff and family friendly), Nimbin (partnership between gps and the community, reduced alienation, alternative and allied care, shared ownership and reduced isolation) and the Happy  Health Centre (multi-door, part of lively gp network, and highly efficient).

In general, gps wanted new information and communication technologies to make the system more seamless (for administrative purposes) and so that they can have a higher degree of connection with other gps.

They desired the system to be far more community focused and power to be decentralized

What This Means 

For Queensland health divisions, this is a clear mandate for them to take a more significant and decisive role in shaping the future of general practice. It also a clear indicator that doctors want a far more integrated and seamless system that is fundamentally based on the community health model – interactive horizontal relationship and not vertical integration is the desired vision of the future.

It also means that doctors, as long as they are the gatekeepers (deciding issues of quality, scientific evidence, etc), are open to alternative forms of health care, to alternative medicine.

Finally, for large pharmaceuticals this means that as they attempt to gain entry and leverage to local health divisions and gps, they must do so in the context of the community model, they must become a local community business, and not an external player.

For this Australian government, as globalization pressures the State to reduce universal care, they need to understand that doctors will resist this.  Any changes in the health care system must begin with serious consultation with general practitioners, the divisions and community members.  Vertical pressures from globalisation must as well live with the desire for localist community models of care, if they are to ensure that efficiency does not merely mean that the accountant instead the doctor runs the practice.

Ageing Genes: Planning for Discontinuous Futures (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

Even amidst the “future shock” of the last fifty years, the future has been stable. It has been an image of the future defined by Continued Economic Growth: a suburban home, escape from manual work, a better life for one’s children, a nuclear family along with traditional notions of retirement (birth, student, work and retirement near the ocean/golf course) and working patterns (5 days a week, 9 to 5).

Financial futures – planning for long term security – is quite an easy task when change is similar to the immediate past. In such a climate, irrespective of when one invests in the share markets as long as one keeps on investing, in the long term, things work out. Of course, say the planners, investing should be balanced (some in value stocks, some in growth stocks, some in a house, some in cash) and the sooner you start, the better. Life, critical illness, and income insurance are useful as protection in case the tragedy that usually happens to someone else happens to you.

But in the year 2000, can we confidently assert that the long term trend of this century – of upwardly rising markets, of the move from industrial to post-industrial, of increasing wealth for the top and for the middle class in OECD nations – will continue?

How we saw the future a generation ago

Going back a generation, researchers in a ten nation survey asked 9000 people 200 questions focused on the year 2000. They were asked to predict and prescribe the future (Images of the World in the Year 2000 by Johan Galtung and Robert Jungk). What they saw was the dark side of the “Continued Growth” future. Says editor Galtung: “More sexual freedom, less attachment to families, more divorce, more mental illness, more narcotics and more criminality, a future of highly materialistic, egocentric individuals striving for personal pleasure and benefit.”  What people have experienced is a gap between the image of the future – an endless array of new technologies leading to progress – and the reality of their own, increasingly meaningless lives. They have seen the postmodern future, for Australians, youth suicide is the best indicator of this.

It is this anomie that has historically characterized a time between eras. And this is the big question – not are we between new eras – but what will the new era we have entered look like? Can we plan for such an era? Do we desire a different future than the future we are unconsciously living?

The new era

Will the new era be a rejection of progress and a return to a slower life that is far less complex, far less global, far less dependent on technological solutions to social problems? In visioning workshops conducted in four nations – Taiwan, New Zealand, Thailand and Australia – two futures emerged (Inayatullah, Managing the Future: A workbook). The first is the continued growth scenario and the second is an organic, green future. In this alternative future, technology is still central but relationship with nature, god and neighbors is far more important than getting the new yacht. Capitalism might still be around but it would be, as writer Jeff Gates argues, a shared capitalism with far more economic democracy, with workers owning companies and thus working harder and smarter since they would receive a greater share of the profits.

But the future may be dramatically different than the organic Green or the Continued Growth future. It is not just the sense that something is wrong with the Continued Growth image but the growing prominence of three trends that challenge its unabated continuation.

Ageing. First, an ageing population means retirement pensions are difficult to sustain (the ratio of worker to retiree will dip from the current 3.1 to 1.5 to 1); second, who will purchase stocks when baby-boomers sell for their retirements; third, whose hard work will drive the economy? Immigrants, perhaps, but only if they are let in. Fourth, can we imagine a world with the average age  of 40 instead of the historical 20, where will innovation come from? Another equally crucial question is: will the elderly be happy or miserable?

The facts are not good with depression, ageing related health costs and disability the likely future. In Queensland, Australia the porportion of those over 60 years will increase from 15% in 1995 to 23% in 2031. Already 25% of those over 65 demonstrate functional psychiatric disorders.

Genetics. The discoveries are daily and may mitigate the decline in elderly health. The creation of synthetic DNA, computers that use DNA instead of chips to store information, cloning, designer babies, the delinking of sex and reproduction have occurred or are on the horizon.

And it is not just the science but our own desires that will carry us into an unrecognizable world. Few would object to gene therapy for curing illnesses or preventive gene therapy for fetuses. But the slippery slope will be quick from genetic prevention and genetic health to genetic enhancement, the creation of smarter and taller children. Already Wall Street genetic companies are starting the quick rise upwards, not yet like .com companies but that is the next likely wave. The question is: what type of world are we creating? Can stupid workers be created for housework (with slightly modified brains)? Will it be Gattaca or Mad Max that will result? How different will the double-helix generation be from the .com generation and or the today’s generation x?

To assume that the genetic future is a far away is a huge mistake. With the mapping of human genome soon to be concluded, social engineering on a massive scale is next. Who among your friends has the criminal genes and who the entrepreneurial gene? Will insurance companies give life and critical illness insurance to those with inappropriate genes? Should they? How will prisons be transformed? Are there any industries that will not be dramatically changed by genetic manipulation? And what of sex? Some people will make children the old fashioned way, most will not.  And with germ line engineering, the genetic structure of future generations will be forever modified (eliminating diseases and “undesirable traits) (http://research.mednet.ucla.edu/pmts/germline).

Jobs and work

The jobs that result as well are impossible to forecast. Already, a multitude of job categories are being created that did not exist a few years ago. Profits for companies such as Intel are being created in products that did not exist even a year ago, 80% in one year reports Intel co-founder Gordon Moore.

While certainly genetic counseling will be a boom career, the deeper question is: will there be jobs in the future? Again not a question with a simple answer.  There are three scenarios. The first is: 10% work and 90% don’t. The big issue is: will the 90% get a universal agreed income, a global poverty dole or will they be in technology heaven, the consumers of the endless products created by nano-technology? The second scenario is: 30% work full time, 40% work in contract work and 30% remain unemployed. The last scenario is: full employment. This remains the dream of all liberal  governments but with women working and technology eliminating work it is the least likely, the unrealizable fantasy. With the internet eliminating the middleman  resulting in massive lay-offs of middle managers, the future of work is not bright if you are a typical MBA.

And what will the financial planner do? With highly interactive artificial intelligence (AI) web based programs that work with you, defining and helping achieve your financial goals, why go to a financial planner? Already, many prefer AI psychotherapy plans. AI financial planners – webbots – will be able to instantly and continuously search through the globe for appropriate shares and mutual funds – and other financial instruments- and they will always be on top of the latest tax strategies. The human financial planner will have to have a dramatic value-added edge to compete with the AI planners.

The big question remains: Can a future that is about to be foundationally transformed by ageing, genetics and the internet be stable and secure? Can it be planned for? Or instead of planning for the future is it better to ensure swift responsiveness to a changing future and the development of personal and institutional confidence to do so?

When your financial planner gives you high-growth, medium-growth and slow-growth scenarios for your investments, ask him: what if the world dramatically changes, transforming the assumptions that have made the Continued Growth world, changing how we work, how we age and the very basis of life?

Work, Family and Home in our Digital Futures: More of the Same or Transformation Finally (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

More of the same or  transformation, finally?

While full of economic benefits, working from home most likely will only worsen the anomie and social isolation many feel in modern society. But there is a possibility that life could be much better for all of us, says Sohail Inayatullah.

John Worthington works from home. He saves on gasoline and gets to spend more time with his children and his wife. He drives to his inner city office once or twice a week for meetings with colleagues.

A win-win story. Perhaps, perhaps not.

First, the Internet, while making it possible to telecommute, is still much slower at home than at most offices. However, in a decade or so, with information piped through cable – this is ATT’s big gamble – it will become lightening quick.

Second, although individuals like John Worthington no longer spend long lunches with office friends, still they have their new virtual communities – friends from various email groups they are part of. And in the next ten years, they will not only be able to read their emails, they will be able to see and hear them with v-net, visual net.

And yet all is not quite well.  There is no one to help clean the house tidy. At work, any mess was cleaned up overnight. In the morning the office was immaculate.  At home there is a constant battle between the children’s toys, the partner’s work and one’s own work. Endless filing cabinets cannot solve the problem.  While there is a great deal of flexibility if one’s children become sick, work always stares at one’s face.

Moreover, life has become more anonymous. Working from the suburbs often means that the only community is the Net.  Office friendships, chance lunches with colleagues, and even the office will disappear. It will be a lonely life. Yes, the screen no longer flickers, but virtual reality is still virtual.  Digital gurus such as Gates and Negroponte have forgotten in their rosy forecasts of digital nirvana that technological change without real institutional change only makes life worse for most. As Marshall McLuhan warned two decades ago:  “Excessive speed of change isolates already fragmented individuals.”

The technology then is not the issue, community and relationship is.

Home is no longer what it used to be

For Sharon Jones, the ups outweigh the cons. She too spends more time with her kids. But she wishes that they had an extended family. The Net has allowed the return to the home, but the home is no longer what it used to be. The neighborhood community does not exist. Mum and Dad are not there to help, they keep on getting sicker, and now are in an old folks home. She wishes she could get them to live with her, but she can barely manage her kids, and her husband – who insists on working from home, but does nothing to help around the house, as that is still a woman’s job – does not make things easier.

Just as neighborhood shops disappeared a few years back, Malls have now started to go bankrupt. Internet shopping has reduced their traffic, and now there is nowhere to take the kids (in any case, they prefer their virtual friends). And the email grocer delivery person keeps on changing.

These two only slightly fictitious examples are our present and future. Yes, we will work from home. Technological advances will let us do so. Globalism will ensure we do so, as it will save government, university and corporations on office space, and other infrastructure costs.  Tenure and life-time jobs will disappear and we will be mostly contract workers.  In the long term, few of us will actually work.

But the dream of telecommuting will not solve all our problems, largely since home has changed so much..

For men, home was the safe secure space to retreat after a hard day’s work. The kids were already in bed, all that was left to do was eat, wash a few dishes, watch television and try and have sex with one’s wife. But with working from home, responsibilities will begin to shift. Women will expect and demand for men to help with the housework, with parenting. Not just their fair share but equally responsibility. Men will not be able to escape to the office.

While men will only have to upgrade themselves, women will continue to face a difficult and uncertain  future.

Michelle Wallace, head of the School of Workplace and Development at Southern Cross University says:  “Women who try and combine work with family are considered by management as not serious about their jobs.” “Studies show that women work the ‘double shift’ and men with working wives often do not share half of the domestic/family responsibilities.”

Does this mean that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Technology rearranges some of our work practices but it does not change deeper held beliefs of productivity, hard work and blokism. Without fundamental change, it only amplifies oppressive practices.

Worse, says Wallace, “The whole move to family friendly policies [by governments in Europe, for example, especially Sweden] and increasing interface between public and private can also be seen as increasing surveillance of workers lives.”

The power of management over the worker expands from the office to the home. John, what are you wearing?  While there is a definite shift from blue-collar to white collar and in the next ten years to no-collar workers, Management may soon desire to know what you are wearing underneath that no-collar.

But are there any bright futures in all this?

First, there is an age generation gap. Older managers will try and control workers who begin to telecommute. Productivity will not be enough for them, hours worked remains their measure.  The bonding or teamwork necessary through face-to-face meetings – the endless boring office meetings everyone loves to hate – will also be an issue for older managers.

But younger one’s raised on the Net might see things differently. Networking relationships, that is, less hierarchical, and more based on productivity, excellence and quadruple bottom line might matter more. Generation x’ers – writes Rosemary Herceg, author of Seven Myths and Realities of Generation X (www. Futurists.net.au) – are far more sensitive to issues of gender, environment, social justice and future generations, the impact of our current politics on the long term.

They are also more comfortable with multi-tasking. This is not just the ability to go from one windows application to another , but to go from editing and writing to changing diapers; to go from web designing, net commerce, to a lovely afternoon spent with one’s partner while the kids are at daycare (or busy on their own screens, since they will have become screenagers).

This new generation might also begin to rethink the home.  This means homes designed not for 19th century office, with the old teak desk, the single book case, and the quill or Parker pen, but high-tech smart homes and office, with plenty of space for filing – electronic and paper. This also means homes that bring the ageing and aged back in. With Australians and other OECD nations rapidly ageing – one out of every four will be over 65 in a few decades and the average age will move from the historical 20 to 40 or 50 – finding meaningful lives for the aged will be crucial.

Ending the worldview that life ends at 40 or 50 or 60 will be the first step. Ending the view that one works forty years and then mindlessly slips into death or plays endless golf will be the next step. This means that the grand divisions we have had for centuries of the male public sphere and female private sphere will be challenged. The separation of inner city and suburbs will be next. The separation of work and play will follow soon.

An information, postindustrial cyber era does not only mean that there will be tons of more data or that we will remove ourselves further from the farm; rather it could mean that the divisions of the industrial era are about to collapse.

A high-tech, world, where work will intermingle with play, where kids and the aged will play together, and communities will once again flourish – once tele-decentralization goes into full swing – is quite possible. Once men move back home, they will make sure that there is money for daycare, for creating community at home.

And what of the fancy offices of inner cities? They will become like the steel mills of the industrial era. Tourism relics. Just as the foreman has disappeared from our vocabulary, the office manager, or the university professor – or anyone who else who needs a captive physical audience to exist – will slowly disappear.  They will become theme parks.

Alternatively, the digital era could reinforce managerial power, surveillance and male domination. In response, we will return to a feudal digital era, where the house becomes the man’s Digital castle.

In either scenario, real changes are ahead.

Welcome to the Wired World.

 

Sohail Inayatullah is Professor, International Management Centres. He works from home, and on occasion goes to an office at Queensland University of Technology. His kids go to daycare but prefer playing from home. His wife has no comments, and hope to write her own version of the Wired World.

 

Science, Civilization and Global Ethics: Can We Understand the Next 1000 Years? (2000)

By Sohail Inayatullah

What will the world look like in one thousand years? What factors will create the long-term future? What are the trajectories? Will we survive as a species? Will science reduce human ignorance through its discoveries or will ignorance increase as science becomes the hegemonic discourse? Will that which is most important to us always remain a mystery, outside our knowing efforts? What should be the appropriate framework in which to think of the long-term?

In a series of meetings sponsored by the Foundation for the Future, these and other issues are being explored by leading scientists, social scientists, paleo-anthropologists and futurists from around the world. The first of the FFF Humanity 3000 seminars was held in Seattle, Washington from April 11-14, 1999  and the second was held from September  26-29, 1999 and the third, August 13-26th, 2000. However the specific dates are quite inconsequential as what makes the Foundation unique is its intent to conduct regular symposia over the next few hundred years.  The results of each individual seminar are far less important than the larger knowledge base of the long-term future created from these conversations between, what Bob Citron, Foundation President, believes are the brightest minds in the world.  While this may or may not be true, the mix of thinkers is certainly multi-disciplinary and representing a range of political spectrums, from the extreme political right to the new left.

The first seminar focused on three areas: space exploration; global ethics and human enhancement with a debate between those who saw evolution as directed and those who saw evolution as random. The second seminar revolved around three debates (which were not resolved): is there one science or are there many sciences; is population and dysgenics a problem or a symptom of world inequity; and, is technology or encounters with the Other more crucial in the long-run.  The larger conference focused on three areas: global ethics; science and technology; and sustainability.  It concluded with a debate on if humanity would successfully evolve creating brighter futures for all or if imperialism, racism, environmental problems and governance crisis would lead to full scale global catastrophe.

This essay weaves together issues from both seminars and the conference,  and is less of a report, and more an inquiry into the nature of the long-term future.  While one can certainly argue that thinking one thousand years forward has little relevance, however, by taking a long-term perspective one can more easily ask: what is really of most importance?  A long-term focus also gives conceptual space allowing one to take an evolutionary view of history, seeing the grand patterns of biological and civilizational change. Individual trauma becomes less important, species trauma, survival, becomes more so. A long-term perspective also forces one to question the intellectual lenses, the paradigms one uses to think about the future, indeed, the entire episteme that frames what one thinks and can think?  Thus, far from a useless activity, a thousand year perspective is precisely the type of activity scientists, historians and futurists must be engaged in, if we are to survive and thrive, and discover who and what it is that “we” are.

However, thinking this far ahead is not without dangers. Generally, the longer span one takes the more implicit values come into place. The probable future often becomes more of a preferred. However, values end up being hidden by claims to science or civilization.  Second, the time scale is so fast that the conversation slips into the most important current issues (overpopulation, environment) and third, solutions and dominant perspectives emerge from current discoveries (genetics and artificial intelligence).

Recreated Selves

Thus, a pivotal issue that emerged from these conversations between physicists, biologists, ethicists, and social scientists is the dramatic probability of germ line therapy to change the very nature of our nature, to recreate not only what it means to be human, but what humans physically are and can be.

In the first seminar, one gene splicer, having left the USA where certain aspects of genetic research are illegal, commented that human cloning has probably already been accomplished. Extrapolate that out a few hundred years, and the last century of incredible technological change suddenly seems puny. Indeed, William Gates Professor of Genetics, Leroy Hood asserted at the second seminar that we are in the midst of the grandest revolution in human history. Within a generation we will move from genetic prevention to genetic enhancement to genetic recreation.  With the mapping of the human genome, parents will have knowledge about the genetic makeup of their children. Along with virtual AI technology, they will be able to view, as if in a movie, the life patterns of their children, the trajectory of their diseases and health. Selective abortion will be a possibility for many parents. Human intelligence will be enhanced. And quite possibly, a new species will be created.  We will perhaps be remembered in evolutionary history, less for ourselves, and more for the species we have created. As Doyne Farmer of the Sante Fe Institute writes:[1]

If we fail in our task as creators (creating our successors), they may indeed be cold and malevolent. However, if we succeed, they maybe glorious, enlightened creatures that far surpass us in their intelligence and wisdom. It is quite possible that, when the conscious beings of the future look back on this earth, we will be most noteworthy, not in and of ourselves, but rather for what we gave rise to. Artificial life is potentially the most beautiful creation of humanity.

Informed by the information sciences and buddhist epistemology, Susantha Goonatalike argues that life has always been artificial, the nature-city distinction as well as the virtual-artificial are false. Indeed, he imagines a future where the physical will be seen as virtual and the ideational seen as real. Technology will play a pivotal role in showing us what is maya, and what is real.

The future then is quite likely to see quite dramatic shifts in the boundaries of what we consider the self, said the author of The Future of the Self, Walter Truett Anderson.  While history has been considered “given” created by God or nature, the future is being increasingly made, we are directly intervening in evolution, creating new forms of life. Instead of a world populated only by humans and animals, the long-term future is likely to be far more diverse. There will be chimeras, cyborgs, robots and possibly even biologically created slaves. Our future generations may look back at us and find us distant relatives, and not particularly attractive ones.

Others such as Clement Bezold imagine a future where connection and community, intimacy and not distance, are far more crucial. Human values such as how we treat the other, be the other human or android are the crucial issues, and not our technological sophistication. Relating to other is not just about our emotional health, but relationship itself is a way of knowing. Moreover, for Bezold, it is not so much survival but thrival that is crucial.

However, for Goonatalike as well as for David Comings (Director of Medical Genetics at the City of Hope National Medical Centre in the United States and a researcher in the area of human behavioral disorders), the impact of genetics is foundational since it unlocks our evolutionary keys.  Gregory Stock (Director of the Program on Medicine, Technology and Society at UCLA) points out that with germ line engineering it is just not the individual’s genes that are being transformed but future generations as well.[2]

Writes Stock:[3]

Technology seems to have progressed to the point now where it is turning back upon us and is reshaping us (or has the potential to reshape us) in the same way that it has reshaped the world around us. This would lead us to believe that this is an absolute landmark in human history and perhaps in the history of life, because now we are beginning to alter the blueprint of life itself and seize control of our own evolution.

To the issue that the complexity of the human genome is such that manipulation will prove problematic, Stock reminds that developments in computers and technology will allow us to manage such complexity.

However, perhaps it is that life itself is so complex and any attempt to engineer life (or society) will always by its very nature have side-affects, that these “complications” are part of the human predicament, just as there is no free lunch, there is no free experiment. This indeed may be the very nature of intelligence. Ignorance does not diminish but expands with specific kinds of knowledge!  This is especially the case when knowledge is framed outside is various contexts. These include how the intellect itself is constructed: as the only way of knowing or as one of many ways of knowing. As well, whether the intellect is seen as divorced from identity or whether it can be used to expand the self beyond class, race, gender, civilization and human definitions.

The long-term future of humanity thus cannot be divorced from the self (and how it is imagined) that is engaged in this activity.

Ethics and the encounter with the Other

How will intelligence look like in the future? Will it be human or artificial? What will be the boundaries? Advances in AI are so quick that it is now defined as whatever machines can’t do today, since tomorrow they will be able to. How long will it be before judicial decision-making is done by AI know-bots, asks futurist James Dator? Will nano-technology make scarcity irrelevant creating a world of unending material bliss? Or will it be the development of our spiritual qualities that will be far more important, asks Barbara Marx Hubbard, director of the Foundation for Conscious Evolution? She imagines the internet, travel and increased emphasis on inner transformation creating a global planetary consciousness – a noosphere. But will we be able to move from egocentric consciousness to spiritual ego-less consciousness, concerned with authentic dialogue between civilizations, asks philosopher Ashok Gangadean?  It is not so much the technology but our relationship with others, be they aliens, clones or robots that is far more important, he and others argue. Tony Judge takes the conversation deeper, asking us to think how the metaphors and language we use to frame such issues limits us, how we force ourselves into simplistic notions of self/other; materialism/spirituality, and technology/society. Indeed, he challenges us to go beyond flat-land reductionism to complex layered depth. Political scientist Inayatullah as well suggests that epistemological impoverishment is our greatest challenge. Modernity and postmodernism continue to negate the richness of who we have been and can be.

It is this impoverishment that leads to an analysis of the present and future that remain at the level of the most visible. Of concern is forecasting new technologies instead of exploring what they will mean to variation social groups as well why our evolutionary route has favored technologies of domination and power, instead of technologies of communication and consciousness. Indeed, in the final conference this division was best expressed by Physicist Michio Kaku and Evolutionary theorist, Erwin Laszlo. Kaku focused on the genetic and artificial intelligence revolution and how it will create a dramatically better and different future for all – new products, increased wealth and a global cultural and governance system. In contrast Laszlo argued that up to now we have been engaged in extensive evolution characterized by control, conquest and colonization. Humanity now needed to develop intensive evolution, focused on cooperation, communication with the other and with nature, not only through language but extra-sensory means. At heart then is the encounter with the other (including the other in ourselves)– we will attempt to control and command or cooperate and mutually evolve? Of course, there will be stunning new technologies, new life forms – genetic, artificial and even spiritual, Sarkar’s[4] idea of microvita – but most important is how will we treat the others we encounter, the aliens far away and near, human-made, human discovered, and those that discover us. Will our perceived differences lead us to conclude that they are evil and thus to be destroyed, as common in current geo-political paradigms.

The evidence from these meetings was mixed. The concern with ascertaining if intelligence had racial and gender variation appeared to move science towards a politics of eugenics – of concern not with humanity as a whole but with one’s own class or racial group. At the same time, others argue that there are many types of intelligence in the world and poverty, overpopulation were best explained by external and internal colonialism – that power was far more important. This in its most banal form was expressed in the nature versus nurture debate (and strangely E.O. Wilson argued that the debate was over). In its more complex form this was expressed as agency versus structure. In which ways could humans transform their predicament? Which structures – class, capitalism, communism, feudalism, patriarchy – mitigate against social transformation? And: was human agency only limited to the rational action of humans or where there other unconscious forces, mythic forces as well as the collective consciousness and unconsciousness at work?

The deeper framework for this discussion was the debate between the one factor theorists and complexity approaches. The former was largely expressed by closet social Darwinists (find the right mix of genes and the future can be bright) as well as those committed to consciousness transformation (if we only we can behave better). The latter by complexity theorists (the ethics, context and politics of knowledge), that there are multiple factors that include visible crisis such as environmental degradation but that these factors have multiple levels of understanding. That is, behind environmental degradation are not just policies of wealth generation but the conquest oriented worldview and metaphors that organize such a vision of the self and other. Merely changing ideas is not enough. Institutional and consciousness change is needed: a new culture plus new rules that transcend national governance structures.

This view was, for example, expressed by academic Wendell Bell. For him, peace culture and peace institutions are both needed.  Until we begin peace and reconciliation processes at the minutest – in the family and on the school yard – and the grandest, at the level of the United Nations, we can not progress.

Ethicists such as Yersu Kim, former Director of the UNESCO Project on Global Ethics, agree, believing that more than ever, now is the time to negotiate a globally agreed upon ethical framework, to move science to public space, and to ask tough questions of the science and technology revolution. If we don’t the future will continue to be created through “Saturday night laboratories,” where science will create the future without the regulatory eye of society. Indeed, astrophysicst Eric Chaisson believes that ethics, evolution and energy are implicated in each other, they can not be discussed separately.

However, there was resistance to these two approaches. A few argued that global ethics would lead to a world government that would take away individual freedoms and rights. The second that ethics and science must be delinked, that science is an objective process with ethics coming afterwards and not beforehand.

A third point of tension was what would be the nature of ethics. Historians such as Howard Didsbury argued that ethical notions of what world we would want to live in must be based on the do’s and don’ts of the world’s great religions, others such as Dator forcefully comment that global ethics must not be based on our historical experiences.  The past will not help us deal with the ethical problems being created by new life forms.  Only a far more flexible process and future-based ethics approach can help.  For Clement Chang, Founding President of Tamkang University, the key is the golden mean, creating a society that is neither too scientific nor too religious, neither too materialistic nor too spiritual. It was this middle path in which humanity can find its direction. This Confucian approach, he argues, is the central ethical principle in navigating the future.  This was also expressed with the Sanskrit word, Prama – or dynamic balance. Prama calls for inner and outer balance but not in a static sense.  The feudal mind in science and religion had to be challenged, argued Inayatullah. What this means is that dissent is crucial for the survival of the species. Anytime any system became hegemonic, it has to be resisted. This approach was considered contentious by many scientists. While they believed that religion had to be challenged, they argued that science was bringing truth and well-being for all, and it was outside of reproach. Its abuse could be criticized but not the project and methodology of science itself.

This tension was not resolved in any fashion, indeed, appeared unresolvable since it was a root myth.

Central then to the debate on ethics and the long-term future  is the issue of is there one universal science or can there be more than one science? Cultural critic and philosopher of science, Zia Sardar (author of Postmodernity and the Other, Orientalism, Chaos for Beginners) argues that there can be different ways to know the real. This is not just an issue of different civilizations asking different questions, focusing inquiry on their own pressing problems, but rather that ways of knowing are multiple. In contrast, scientists at FFF meetings such as Robert Shapiro (author of The Human Blueprint and Planetary Dreams) argues strongly that science is universal and objective. There is only science, and not feminist or Islamic, or Indian/Buddhist science.  Just as science has evolved to the objective, sociology will move to a behavioral scientific approach instead of its current critical, poststructural – politics perspective. Those who wish not to enjoy science had that right, however.

For social scientists, however, the issue of values, of ethics is at the heart of the matter. Ethics must be explicit within science and not an afterthought. What type of humans are we, do we want, and what are our boundaries, are not merely technological questions but political and moral issues. We have a responsibility to future generations to not create a dystopia – a Brave New World. Indeed, this was a central critique of the presentation by Kaku. His image of the future foreclosed the future, it did not open up alternatives, rather as he said: “ get on the train (of liberalism, science and technology) or forever be left behind.”

Thus for scientists, science is largely value free, and even if leading to awe and wonder, as physicist/cosmologist Brian Swimme (author of The Hidden Heart of the Cosmos: The Universe is a Green Dragon) reminds us, it is generally an enterprise devoid of values. It is precisely this issue that others such as biologist Elisabeth Sahtouris contest. She sees a new science emerging that is value-laden, with reality as complex, chaotic and not divorced from cosmic consciousness. Indeed, at the very root of who we are, of what is real, is consciousness.  As many argued, there are no value-free positions, a value-free science is impossible.  This however does not mean that rigour, systematic inquiry and empirical truths should be abandoned, rather that science must include issues of ethics, public knowledge, alternative ways of knowing as part of its charge, and not as an externality. The meanings we give to the material world (and the epistemes and social structures that frame these meanings) are as important as the material world itself.

What then is the appropriate frame from which to view the future? Can the future be determined by one variable, or is the future far more complex, multi-factorial with emergence (consciousness or new life forms or new solutions) a central possibility? Indeed, this is the critique of geneticist formulations of the future, touched upon above. It is not intelligence that is being measured but the ability to take an IQ test.  There is no one gene for intelligence, rather, there are a combination of factors, genetic, cultural, spiritual, and access to wealth that define intelligence. Thus, imagining a future where gene therapy leads to enhanced human intelligence is trite since other factors are ignored, and the social cannot be held in abeyance. In this sense, assuming that exponential increases in the internet (creating more information) in genetics (creating smarter humans) will reduce human ignorance forgets that ignorance is part of knowledge, and not separate from it. We could find out that new knowledge only expands our ignorance. It is not only that there are wildcards but there are unthoughts.

The framework for knowledge is thus episteme-based. The episteme – the boundaries of what is knowable – is not stable but changes through history. Thus, what seems as complete knowledge to one generation will seem like magic or maya to another. The response then to the long-term future should be one of humility, of an ever expanding unknown, mystery.  In this sense, projecting a world where one particular perspective on reality, whether positivism  (science and technology) or cultural relativism or a particular ideology, liberalism or socialism, claims victory ignores the contradictions of history and future.

This is not to say that insights into human suffering, into identifying the causes of diseases will be necessarily impossible, no luddite position is taken, but rather that truth is context-based.

Population Dynamics

Another central debate was between the majority such as author Michael Hart and Glayde Whitney (Psychologist, neuroscientist) and Arthur Jensen (author of the G Factor) who see overpopulation (as well as illegal immigration to OECD nations) as one of the biggest hurdles facing humanity, and others, such as Sardar, who see population as a symptom of deeper issues.  Less focused on immigration is the environmental position which argues that overpopulation in poor nations and piggish resource consumption in OECD nations damages the world’s ecosystem (a position elegantly argued by Sir Crispin Tickell and Worldwatch Institute editorial director, Ed Ayres). Generally, many believe that overpopulation creates a vicious cycle where the poor and the third world overproduce while the intelligent and the wealthy first world underproduce. Not only is the future racial make-up of the planet in problematic balance, but over the long-term, the stupid will rule the world –the human genome will be damaged. Worse, feared some, genetic technology could be stolen by rogue nations or individuals.

Far less convinced with this argument, indeed, seeing it is foundationally evil, is the argument that population is a symptom of inequity and a fear of the future. Kerala, for example, a state in India, has achieved low population growth, partly because there is a strong social security system. Women have control over their bodies and their futures. Access to wealth, technology is possible, as is human dignity. In contrast in areas where patriarchy is dominant, or colonialism from the centere (whether the dominant ethnic group or colonial power) reigns than the only resource individuals have are other people.

Humans should be thus seen as being endowed with creative potential, who given appropriate social structures can expand their horizons and improve their well-being. While not all will test well in IQ tests, all have the possibility to do well in the sorts of intelligence that matter to them, and the futures they want to create.  Again, this tension of the role of political and definitional power was not resolved in the seminars of the larger conference.

Beyond the planet

But in case the population problem is not solved there is always outer space. Professor Allen Tough of the University of Toronto says moving beyond the planet is a necessary process for commercial, survival, and idealistic reasons (or creating a sanctuary as Robert Shapiro imagined). Already one entrepreneur has begun hiring for a hotel in space. If there is a nuclear winter, at least some of the human family would survive. Space exploration can lead to contact with other sorts of intelligence, which would force us to genuinely reflect on what it means to be human. It would be the social scientist’s dream, finally having something to compare our planetary neurosis’ with.  And if we meet no one in space, then it may be our destiny to go forth and multiply, argues space writer Steven Dick.

Can the future be known?

Most participants at the symposiums cautioned that the future especially the long-term 1000-year future cannot be known. Not only are there too many factors to predict, but there are unknown unknowns. We don’t even know which wild cards to focus on, although writer Fred Pohl argues that science fiction has already given us great insights as to what the next 1000 years may bring us.  Still, just as the long-term past is difficult to pin point, so the long-term future is foggy. Fact becomes fiction and truth becomes fantasy.

The crux of this issue is not predicting the future, but enhancing humanity’s capacity and confidence to create desired futures, and to create participatory processes in which these aspirations can influence local and global policy.

Directed Evolution

However, at another level, a grander level, the issue of participation is not one focused on human concerns of governance but larger issues of evolution.  Argue philosophers that it is directed evolution that could lead to the challenge of creating more capable humans. This does not, however, have to be a debate on genetic enhancement – which will occur nonetheless, given current trends – but a discussion on the creation of wealthier societies so that basic needs can be accessed by all, so that human potential could develop.  Dr. Meng Kin Lim, an aerospace physician from Singapore, comments that it is the Rawlsian moral equation (from John Rawls A Theory of Justice) that is needed – social equality has to remain the most important principle in our quest to enhance human intelligence. Ultimately, this will be what globalization is really be about – a world government or governance system that guarantees a level playing field so that all humans have the opportunity to expand their intelligence.

But what type of governance system will it be? Taking a macrohistorical perspective, there are only four plausible structures. First a world empire run by one nation or civilization. Second, a world church/ummah/temple where power resides in the normative space of one civilization/religion. Third, a world economy, where the flow of wealth, capital accumulation is far more important and politics is located within nation-states, territories organized around history, language, or other categories. In a fourth possibility, there are mini-systems, autarkies. However, the fourth possibility is unstable as empires, churches and economies globalize them, make them universal. Local self-reliant mini-cultural systems are only possible within a context of a world government structure, a strong polity.  Since no one religion or empire is likely to become victorious, a world economy is more likely. However, since the nation-state is increasingly porous, the world economy/nation state model is now unstable. It appears that the latter alternative (a world government with mini-cultural systems) is quite possible in the very long-term.

Survival

As we venture outward into space, as we create new life forms, expand our intelligence and reduce social and civilizational injustice, we should however never forget the precarious nature of life. We may not even survive.  Phillip Tobias, one of the world’s leading archeologists, tells us that 90% of the world’s species have become extinct.  We may be next. However, even as he cautions, by tracing human evolution, he offers a story of hope for the future, of humans learning from mistakes, and proceeding slowly onwards.

While most scientists assert that evolution does not have a direction but is random, others point out that we are already intervening in human evolution, we are already directing the future, we just need to do a good job of it – to make sure we create a better future, not make a gigantic mess of it all.

We must ensure to anticipate the intended consequence of our interventions, to engage in, what in neurobiologist Terry Deacon – who is currently engaged in research using cross-species transplantation of embryonic brain –  calls the simulation imperative.  If we don’t begin to consider the long-term alternative futures ahead, if we don’t create the necessary global institutional foresight to anticipate the future, we may not make it to the next evolutionary step.

Unfortunately, while the FFF seminars are part of many similar conversations throughout the world, they have shown that we are far – at least in terms of leading thinkers – from any shared view of what are the critical factors in humanity’s survival and thrival, indeed, in what is the appropriate framework for embarking on such a project.

However, the points of tension are clearer. To summarize these include:

One factor versus complexity
Social Darwinism versus ethical evolution
One science versus many ways of knowing
Extensive versus intensive evolution
Overpopulation versus gender empowerment
Environmental and cultural catastrophe versus technological salvation
Global ethics versus national rights
Materialistic versus ideational approaches
Consciousness transformation or institutional change

Can these factors be bridged, transcended? Lets hope so!

References

[1] Waldrop, M., Complexity, New York, Touchstone, 1992, p.284.

[2] Stock, Gregory and Campbell, John. Engineering the Human Germline. London, Oxford University

[3] http://research.mednet.ucla.edu/pmts/germline/questions/qwatershed.htm

[4] Inayatullah, Sohail and Fitzgerald, Jennifer, eds.,  Transcending Boundaries. P.R Sarkar’s Theories of Individual and Social Transformation. Maleny, Gurukul, 1999. Bill Halal and Graham Molitor also point to the emergent technologies of consciousness, accessing reality through deeper levels of the mind. In contrast Jo Coates found any discussion of psychic and spiritual consciousness, in any time frame, ridiculous. This of course underlies the integrated (or ideational) versus empiricist tension.

Perfect Information and the Net Bazaar (2000)

“Will the Internet transform the role of the middle-man creating friction-free capitalism or will it transform the very nature of capitalism by creating a global peoples’ market?asks Sohail Inayatullah

While asking for a fare quote, my travel agent responded: “I’ll call you back, I have to check the Internet.”

I thought, wait a second, I too can check the Internet. I did. Who needs travel agents?  www.travel.com.au has a wealth of information – the best deals –  for the flights I need. Then came the endless destination rules, and the problem of flight availability. I was quickly exhausted.

Back to my travel agent it was. However, this time, I could give her my suggestions, ask her to check routing through Singapore, Kuala Lumpur as well as Bangkok.

While the Internet will not replace the travel agent, it has empowered me, made me into a smarter consumer. I have more information on routes and prices. But I will not spend a half hour only to find out that the days I want to travel are unavailable. She can do that for me much faster. And she has a human face and voice.

Historically, it was the middle-man that has both provided the grease for capitalism and has been the bane of the consumer. The middle-man gets the cut, negotiates distribution, delivering, marketing and price between the producer and I – he is the information broker. That cut keeps the economy going, lets producers focus on what they do best (make commodities, goods and provide services), and helps me decide what I want to buy.

But with the growth of the Internet, is the middle-man still needed? Or is the Internet itself the new middle-man, websites skimming dollars from producers through their advertising arms?  The middle-man becoming the medium itself. Of course, the Internet is a far cheaper middle-man, dramatically reducing transaction costs, from 1$ to 1 cent in many industries, banks, for example, reports Chuck Martin in his book, Net Future.

While I still currently need my travel agent what if in a few years a  travel.com site came on with far more advanced artificial intelligence  knowbot – finding me the right price, airline schedule, with ease?  Would my travel agent still have work? Will her role as broker of information remain intact even with AI developments? Or will she need to reinvent herself as web designer, an artificial intelligence engineer?

Perfect Information

Certainly the Internet will increase efficiency, costs will go down. For General Electric an appliance service call via phone costs $5 to execute but only 20 cents via the web. Costs will keep on dropping. Labour from poorer areas can do much of the e-service work since geography is web-irrelevant. When I emailed the United Airlines site asking for information on my Mileage Plus/Points card (I had forgotten my password), the response could have been from the US (a high wage area) or from India (a cheaper area). United saves money, I save time, India moves up the world economy, and everyone is happy. Well, except the employee in the US, who now has to compete with service personnel throughout the world. Where will she get a job if she can’t retrain herself? She can join the Internet unemployed, or perhaps advertise her services on the Web. Eventually perhaps her Indian counterpart in Bangalore will start her own Net company, and hire her to provide on-line services – true globalization, the freedom of capital and labour.

In the long run what will happen? There are two perspectives. In the first: markets are profitable because information is not perfect, thus helping one to buy low and sell high (other factors are relevant as well: skills, capital, marketing). As information becomes perfect, capitalism faces a crisis, since profits cannot be made.

World Systems thinker Immanuel Wallerstein says it like this: This is the presumed ideal of the free market with no restraints and restrictions. At that point the buyers would simply go from one seller to the next until they found the lowest possible price because they would have perfect information and the lowest possible price would soon be battered down to an infinitesimal amount over the cost of production price and you couldn’t make a profit. This is in fact what happens with most of the poorly profitable industries in the world. If today you don’t make very much money from selling clothing, its because everybody’s doing it.

With everybody doing it on the Net, will profits keep on shrinking as customers and markets keep on getting smarter? Will the Internet fundamentally transform capitalism creating a world bazaar where goods and services are matched perfectly according to need? No monopolies, no government featherbedding. Is this the end of corporate capitalism and state socialism, and the beginning of a global peoples market?

The only way out for producers is to have the State come in and protect  their business. But because of globalization and the freedom of the Net (information wants to be free), this is far more difficult now to achieve.  Consumers with more information means a much more difficult time for producers. They need relative monopolies, relatively few sellers. Since the start-up costs on the Net are relatively minor, new sellers can come in quickly.

The bet on Amazon.com (capitalised at 36 billion US$) is that those who enter first and gain brand recognition and high-portal visibility will make profits. Borders’ – a bookstore that does make profits, has great coffee, is capitalized at 1 billion US$ – stock continues to go down as profits go up. Borders is a late comer to the Web, and thus is considered a dinosaur in the long run. This is the principle of increasing returns, of lock-ins, and not diminishing returns. Who gets advantage first, will keep it.

The bet is also on the medium itself. Internet based businesses will do better than brick businesses. “Broadband lets producers skip the whole physical stage – especially for products such as CDs, books and videos that straddle the boundary between physical and digital – and just shoot the bits straight from their mainframe to your hard drive,” writes John Rubino for  Thestreet.com. And once, or if, nano-technology is proven then physical products can be downloaded (materialized) as well.  Either way, middle-man companies are doomed.

The second perspective on the future of the middle-man is that the Net will benefit the consumer as he or she will get the lower price.  Competition will bring profits to a bare minimum, where no new entrants will be attracted, but a sufficient number remain to continue competing. Thus, in the very short term we will have a massive shake-out in the industry, with only a few surviving, and thousands of Net start-ups hitting the dirt. The strong will survive and eventually the Internet will become a mature industry (right now probably half way through its cycle with productivity gains just kicking in).

What type of information?

It is not only that consumers have more, quicker, and easily accessible, information, but they have now information that reflects their aspirations, their ideal standards.

Thus, demands for new types of information will transform business. Standards have gone through three phases. The first, writes Clement Bezold, of the Institute for Alternative Futures (www.altfutures.com), are physical standards, based on a products inherent physical qualities. The second are functional standards (how well it works and how cost effectively). Emerging standards are contextual (demands regarding the larger context of the product’s manufacture, distribution, use and disposal). These are values and aspirations based.  Issues of environmental impact, gender equity, labor fairness, child labour, organic or gene-altered food all become critical information.

These issues are far more crucial for Generation X’ers who are more likely to purchase products that match their values and boycott companies and products that do not.

The Internet allows product information to be far more accessible and advanced technology will allow each product to have total context information available. Consumers can then make decisions based not only on physical and functional standards but on context standards as well, becoming smarter and wiser buyers.  Companies that don’t provide this information will lose out on marketshare, and those who are judged poorly on these social accountability standards will also lose ground.

Writes Bezold, “Smarter markets will give us a clearer choice of both the products we want and the world we are building by buying and using those products.”

Already, says Hazel Henderson, a director of the Calvert Social Investment Fund and the Council of Economic Priorities, social responsibly mutual funds are bringing in billions, competing alongside traditional “lets only make money” funds – the balanced scorecard makes good economic and social sense.

.Com Generation and beyond

But after generation X, what of the .Com generation that has grown up with the Net? Will they still call their travel agent, or having been raised on the Net, will humans be considered slow portals, to be avoided, rocks on the Netsurf?

Most likely they will be far more comfortable with Net grocery shopping, indeed Net everything. Flexibility, immediate delivery, multicultural products will be crucial to them. The Net world will be less of an array of computers and more a global always-on, always-everywhere peoples’ market.

And after them? The Double Helix generation – the designer children who will be born in the 2020’s – won’t even make the distinction between human and Net since they will have been born genetically enhanced, a few even  created in hospital/factories.  The genetic/organic debate will no longer be relevant since by that time all will be human-made.

In the meantime, however, we can expect massive economic transformations. Argues Ronald Coase, the nobel laureate in economics, up to 45% of the economy will be made irrelevant by information advances as we disintermediate (as the middle man and related transaction costs disappear), that is,  $2.5 to $4.5 trillion of the 10 trillion dollar US economy. And with globalism reducing the size of the state bureaucracy, where will the jobs be? Or will be so productive and efficient that jobs and work won’t matter?

What will happen to my travel agent? Will she go on a terminal vacation?

Dr. Sohail Inayatullah can be reached at: s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au and at www.futurists.net.au. He is professor with the International Management Centres and author of a cdrom on forecasting the future. He is a fellow of the World Futures Studies Federation and visiting academic at Queensland University of Technology. Recent books include Transcending Boundaries and Situating Sarkar.