Cities Create Their Futures (2003)

Sohail Inayatullah[1]

“Cities to play a major role in global governance, in a reformed United Nations”

“Digitalization, aging, globalization, global warming, new viruses, as well as expanded expectations, all point to dramatic changes in the nature of Mayoral Responsibilities”

“Nothing will change in my role as Mayor in twenty years – just more of the same.”

These were some of the perspectives articulated by 96 Mayors from around the Asia-Pacific Region at the October 20-22 Asia-Pacific Cities Summit 2003. Held in Brisbane, Queensland, Mayors and civic leaders embarked on a foresight process to anticipate future problems, develop scenarios of the future city, and articulate a preferred vision of the “Future of the City”.

Along with plenary sessions with world renowned speakers such as green architect Ken Yeang, Time Magazine hero of the planet Vandana Shiva, “Alternative Nobel” Right Livelihood winner Johan Galtung, Feminist Futurist Ivana Milojevic, City Planner Steven Ames, Chairman of the Future 500 and former CEO of Mitsubishi Electric America Tachi Kiuchi, Mayors met in a series of sessions to chart out the direction of the future city. The sessions were facilitated by political scientist and professor of futures studies and social sciences, Sohail Inayatullah.

Familiar Ground

The first session was familiar ground for Mayors as they identified current issues (solving problems is why they were elected to their positions in the first place). Some of these issues included population drift (rural to city, small to large cities), traffic congestion, growth occurring faster than infrastructure development, lack of partnership between city and business, loss of cultural heritage, long term water supply, lack of skills of the workforce, lack of support of central government to local government and lack of employment opportunities. The main overall categories of current problems were: sustainability and the challenges of increased growth; infrastructure decline and affordability; governance, environmental protection and resource scarcity, and community capacity.

Mayors, of course, spoke from their personal experiences. Taipei Deputy Mayor Chin-Der Ou challenged Mayors to think not only of SARS but of future viruses.  Mayors from Fijian cities (Gani from Nadi, Simmons from Labasa, Goundar from Lautoka) spoke of the challenges of a central government that was not sympathetic to local issues. Mayor Sirajuddin Haji Salleh  of Ipoh commented that globalization – in the form of increased travel and heightened information – had raised the expectation of Ipoh citizens. They expected Ipoh to have the same levels of “development” (services, for example) as an American or European city, New York or London, for example.

From current issues, Mayors moved to identifying future problems. To do so, Mayors were asked to identify drivers that were pushing us into the future. The drivers selected included the usual suspects:  Population growth, Economic and Cultural Globalization, and Environmental Changes.

Based on these drivers, Mayors then focused on emerging issues. The purpose of this was so that they could better anticipate the future and thus better meet the changing needs of citizens (and new stakeholders – global corporations, global non-governmental organizations, global institutions). These issues included what could go wrong but also opportunities for greater prosperity and democratization.

Along with the expected issue of the increased income gap between the haves and have nots being created by globalization, Mayors saw that the future would make their roles  more complex. They would have to address issues such as the ethics associated with medical and technological advancements, e-governance, as well as the broader issue of the role of the civic leader in a digitalized e-city. And along with a squeeze from the Central Government – in terms of less funds but more responsibilities – Mayors would be caught in a squeeze from nature, with extensive competition for water and other natural resources. Aging as well would change the nature of the city, leading some cities to becoming increasingly dysfunctional and others far becoming retirement centers. Along with the demographic shift of aging, immigration, especially the new wave of  global knowledge workers (and refugees), would change the face of the city.

But through all the changes, the Mayors were clear that their role would be to ensure that communities stayed connected. It was creating strong and healthy communities that was central, focusing on relationship building. This was a central point made by Caboolture, Mayor Joy Leishman. Without a leadership role – developing a vision of the future and creating structures and processes that could deliver that the future – cities would find themselves swamped by a rapidly transforming global, regional and local worlds.

Scenarios

From these issues, four scenarios emerged.

The first was a warning of what could go wrong if technocratism overwhelmed governance. This was High-Tech Anomie, with technologization leading not to greater community building but to further alienation. In this future, the internet would become a site of fragmentation and crime, drug shopping, for example. Improvements in genetics would only benefit the rich, creating cities divided by class.

The second was a future where Mayors were unable to meet the changing expectations of citizens. Democratization, globalization, a highly educated, technology savvy population demanding instant response from cities would lead to a condition of permanent crisis. Leadership would succumb to these pressures and citizens would resort to undemocratic expressions to get their needs met.

The third future was one where Mayors spent most of their time and resources on disaster management. Whether it was SARS (and future diseases from genetic errors) or HIV or the global water crisis, cities should expect a difficult and bleak future, where survival was of primary importance.

The fourth future was far more hopeful. Mayors argued that with a highly educated and informed populace, their jobs would become that of the facilitator. Their role would be focused on the capacity building of city employees and citizens. Creating learning organizations and communities would become the vehicle wherein citizens took far more responsibility for of the future of their city.  Part of being a learning community was to embed in the city, processes of conflict resolution – mediation and arbitration – within their communities,  so that the rights of individuals and groups and the pressure of social advancement could be negotiated.

The first three scenarios required leadership to ensure that the trends were managed or that they did not occur, while the last was focused on what could be done to anticipate and accommodate any future.

Fishbowl scenarios

The next session was a plenary fishbowl wherein these scenarios were tested.. Along with speakers Johan Galtung, Vandana Shiva, and Tachi Kiuchi, were Mayors Tim Quinn of Brisbane, Mayor Sirajuddin Haji Salleh  of Ipoh, Mayor Ho Pin Teo of North West District of Singapore, and of Mayor Robert Bell of Gosford. In an interactive session, led by Inayatullah, these futures were refined.

Galtung evoked the rainforest to imagine the future of the city. As Ken Yeang had argued earlier, the built environment should be, and could be, integrated into the natural environment. Not only would cost savings results – energy bills, health costs,  – but the beauty of the city would be restored.[2] Green could become gold. Vandana Shiva reminded participants that for cities to create the futures they wanted they had to challenge the strategies and tactics of large private corporations, particularly in the areas of water management.[3] Water, she asserted, must remain a public resource, and, as much as possible, cities needed to ensure that globalization did not erode democratic decision-making processes. Tachi  Kiuchi, as well, focused on the Rainforest as the guiding image of the future. City design and planning had to be based on different principles – cooperative evolution between nature and city, technology and community, for example. Mayor Ho Pin Teo brought out practical examples of how Singapore was becoming more green and healthy while retaining its business focus

However, not all in the audience were impressed. The city as international and , prosperous, focused on economic development, attracting large projects (theme parks, for example) – , that this the Big International City outlook was brought up as a counter image – indeed, as the only realistic future. The Mayor of Cairns, Kevin Byrne, in particular, argued that the Rainforest as guiding metaphor for the city was inappropriate. Mayor Wang Hong Ju of Chongqing, as well, saw prosperity and internationalization as primary.

However, fish bowl participants saw that the Big City scenario only as only a continuation of the present. Current trends would lead to expected outcomes:.

1.      A divided city, with a number of fault lines: between (A1) the winners and losers of globalization, (B) the young and old, (C) local residents and new migrants, and (D) the on-line and the off-line.

2.      Urban sprawl would exacerbate loss of green areas, destroy livable communities by continuing the car-highway-oil paradigm of the future.

3.      As well, in the current model, pollution and, traffic jams would just worsen, building more development would only lead to more buildings, and not only increased costs (The World Bank estimates that the cost to the world ofis $500[4] billion a year is lost on deaths and injuries plus congestion, sprawl, noise loss of forests and farms, and carbon emissions)[5] but cities would miss the financial, social and cultural benefits of creating green and healthy cities.

4.      Furthermore, the current model would reduce democratization, reduce the capacity of local people to save community and public spaces and make decisions as to their own futures.

5.      Finally the Big City model was being discarded by most Western cities, as they searched for new visions to lead them forward. Copying a used-future was unlikely to lead to prosperity, rather the same old mistakes would be committed again.[6]

The debate was not resolved, however, with some considering these costs as externalities, part of the price for progress.

What is clear that the future should not be seen in simplistic terms. Rather, creating a clean, healthy, urban village, public and community space focused city, where people (social, environmental, and cultural capital was foundational) were the true landmarks, and not the tallest buildings, would lead to increased prosperity for all.  It was not the single bottom line of the developer or the radical green activist that was being called for but the triple bottom line of prosperity, social justice and environmentalism.

Not polluting – and ensuring that this did not happen via persuasion, fines and incentives – would enhance the desirability of the city.  Traditional notions of desirability were about size, grandness – the modern city – however, new notions are focused on individual health, community capacity building, well being and quality of life.  Case studies on the steps required to realize this future were presented by Prasit Pongbhaesat , the Deputy-Director General of Policy and Planning for Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (the healthy cities project) and by Deputy Mayor Chin-Der Oh of Taipei (the cities acclaimed recycling project)

VISION

The final session was focused on the preferred future. What type of city did Mayors desire? And how could cities work together to create a shared future? As expected there was not full agreement. Representatives were from a variety of cities, some with populations in the millions, others in the thousands, some the economic size of nations, others without a true middle class, however, general points were agreed upon.

1.      The city needs to be clean and green.

2.      The city must focus on creativity and innovation, instead of traditional models and knowledge structures. This was the best way to become prosperous.

3.      The city must be an inclusive place of opportunity, offering equity of access to citizens.

4.      The city must balance the immediacy of growth with protection of the environment, of people’s culture and traditions in the wake of globalisation.

5.      The city of the future needs to be a city where opportunities are available to all its citizens, meaningful work, education, empowerment and self worth – that is survival, well-being, identity and freedom needs must be met.

6.      Cities must remain people friendly – true communities – and ensure that their decisions today did not foreclose the options of future generations.

While there was general agreement, the debate between the large international city and the green clean and healthy image was not resolved.

However, clear steps were formulated so that cities could create their desired futures.

Vision 2020 / Summit City Commitments

A.     Enhance city relationship

1.      In the short term, foster information sharing between local governments through a range of expanded exchange programs.

2.      In the medium term, strengthen the role and outcomes of Sister City relationships, to include technology, resource exchanges and capacity development.

3.      In the long run, creating a global association of local governments, to move towards cities as central to Global Governance, making the first steps towards a House of Cities.

B.       Enhance the green city

4.   Focus on environmental education for young people, with a view to protecting the environment of the future.

5.      Building consensus between all levels of government on key issues of environmental protection and the health of cities.

C.       Enhance capacity

6.      Actively engage young people in the Summit process, with delegates bringing one young person from their city to the next meeting, to ensure that their views are heard and acted upon, especially as their experiences are being formed by different drivers for change.

7.      Enhance volunteer participation in community capacity building in cities, in particular through local government workforces.

8.      Investigate new ways to use technology to encourage participation of all citizens in local government decision making.  For example, chat rooms, SMS messaging on the future vision for cities, e-democracy and so on.

D.  Ensure Future-Orientation

9.      Evaluate these issues on an ongoing basis at future Ssummits, in particular the Summit of 2023, seeing visioning the future as an ongoing process.

10.  Continue to measure the performance and outcomes of Asia Pacific Summits, to determine the most viable model for future city interactions.

Finally, a conclusion of the Summit was that a full record of the proceedings of the Summit and the outcomes agreed by Mayors should be placed in a time capsule, to be opened and presented to the Asia Pacific Summit of 2023, to determine progress on the Summit City Vision.

As a city planner of sorts, Lao-Tsu once said: “A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step”.

[1] Sohail Inayatullah, Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan, Sunshine Coast University, Australia and visiting academic, Queensland University of Technology. www.metafuture.orgs.inayatullah@qut.edu.au

[2] Recent studies assert that urban sprawl is directly related to obesity. City design thus correlated with health indicators. Reid Ewing et al, “Relationship between urban sprawl and physical activity, obesity and morbidity,” The Science of Health Promotion (September/October, Vol 18, No. 1), 2003. Given the direct correlation between obesity and a variety of illnesses (heart disease, cancer, to begin with) city planners have a lot to answer for.

[3] Urban sprawl is also directly related to water issues. For example, we now know that suburban sprawl – strip malls, office buildings and other paved areas – have worsened the drought covering half the United States by blocking billions of gallons of rainwater from seeping through the soil to replenish ground water.   Tom Dogget, “Suburban Sprawl Blocks Water, Worsens U.S. Drought,” Science – Reuters. 28/8/2003

[4] Choosing the Future of Transportation, Molly O’Meara Sheehan (Research Associate, Worldwatch Institute), The Futurist, 35:4, July-Aug 2001, 50-56.

[5] More than one million people a year are killed on the world’s roads, and ten times as many become disabled. By 2020, road traffic injuries will be the third largest cause of “disease” in the world, according to
a research team led by epidemiologist Ian Roberts of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. http://www.cochrane.org/cochrane/revabstr/AB003734

[6] Exemplary is a recent issue of Newsweek (October-December 2003). Andres Duany, “The Best of the West,” 55, argues that “the urban landscape is changing fast. But if Asia doesn’t change course, its cities will be dark and dismal.” Instead of symbolic power – the largest city – it is quality of life that has become more important. While hard to measure, some questions are key. Writes Duany: “ Is the city a pleasant place to be? Is there free time, or is it consumed by commuting? Is the air clean? Do people have enough income to buy good housing or is it tied up in purchasing automobiles, which are necessary to get around?” Duany offers the following choices: Asian cities can be like “Dallas and Los Angeles: stuffed with high-rises and surrounded by jammed highways, shopping centers that sprawl across what was once countryside. Or they can be like Portland or Boston: cities of compact, mixed-use neighborhood with a variety of housing: pleasant, walkable streets lined with shops, and a well-run public transit system.” Of course, the key is not to purchase any used future, but to vision the preferred future within Asia’s own historical terms and alternative futures.

Asia Pacific Cities Summit International Keynote Panel (2003)

BEYOND ROADS, RATES, AND RUBBISH: THE ALTERNATIVE FUTURES OF THE CITY

Opening comments by Sohail Inayatullah

2003 Asia Pacific Cities Summit International Keynote Panel. 20 October 2003. Brisbane.

We are to explore the alternative futures of the city.]

 

These futures are based on the consequences of current trends as well as the anticipation of emerging issues that will likely alter the current trajectory of the city, in all its meanings.

The themes that were developed were based on an environmental scan of the futures of the city, a sorting out of hundreds of articles, books and speeches. They were not mean to reproduce current knowledge but to move toward emergent ideas.

What has resulted are five broad themes:

  1. The transformation of urban sprawl
  2. the greening of the city, going far beyond recycling
  3. the healthy city
  4. the global and local city
  5. and alternative futures

These are not your typical concerns, normally, city politics is mired deep in local politics, in issues of what is called here in Australia, roads, rates and rubbish.

However, cities were never, and especially now are not immune from the forces of globalization, digitalization, multiculturalism, global warming, and other factors that transform the nature of risk.

Cities as well are becoming the site of social change  – UN conferences are referred to by their respective city hosts, Rio 92, for example. Nation-states are hard to maneuver, like grand oil tankers, towns do not have the budget or populations to make a difference, but cities do, they become the nexus between globalization and localization, creating glo-calization. This means ensuring that local people are not lost in the drive for the movement of capital but ensuring that they benefit from internationalization.

City futures is essentially about city design, city policymaking and city planning. Why is this crucial. A recent study reports that that there is a direct relationship between city design, in this case suburbanization, and obesity. We know as well that there is a direct correlation between obesity and cancer and heart attack rates. Thus, what seem as isolated phenomena are in fact directly link. How we design cities in fact dramatically can alter the quality of life of its citizens. Destroy communities for the sake of modernity and what will result is increased crime, anomie, suicide an depression. Build endless suburbs and the benefits of tradition – walking, talking, connecting – will disappear. The healthy city is thus about design.

And it is about money. Have city policies that balk at green issues and the cost of business will go up far more than the cost of  business of following green regulation. Urban and suburban  sprawl, traffic jams, car and bus pollution should not be seen as externalities to be dealt with by individuals and the federal health system but rather they are intrinsic to the city.  Water for example is seen as an externality but as water becomes a crucial issue research is showing that the drought is linked to urban planning patterns. For example, we now know that suburban sprawl – strip malls, office buildings and other paved areas – have worsened the drought covering half the United States by blocking billions of gallons of rainwater from seeping through the soil to replenish ground water.

Thus, Business costs go up, individuals and companies move to other cities, a vicious cycle starts, and soon, what is left is a highly populated, and poor city, caught in a cycle of corruption and waiting. At this stage, neither moral individual actions or inspired leadership is enough, since the structure has taken over.

But by looking at future problems, anticipating them before they become too big to solve, individuals and leaders can do a great deal.

Thus, issues of recycling, clean energy public buses, transparency, walking and bicycle lanes may seem unrelated but they are all directly related to creating a better city.

Digitalization is not separate from creating a better city, indeed, technology must be embedded into all our future themes – digitalization can create a seamless city, with information on tourist arrivals and departures all linked so that costs are held to a minimum. Technology can be used so that more is created with less, technology can help create a healthier city, mapping health providers, making it easier to have access, monitoring our habits via health-bots. Technology, however, is not the solution, we know we will have more of it. The key is its appropriate use, and more ever, it is in innovation in social and organizational know ware as well as in transforming the worldviews that govern how we create the future city that is far more important, and pivotal.

City design and policy planning can thus influence individual behaviors but more importantly is that it transforms systems. We know that better driver training is not the solution of traffic fatalities but rethinking the transportation system. Underneath this system is the worldview of the fast and big city. City design is also then searching for new paradigms and visions of the city. It is understanding the relationship between events, structures, paradigms and images.

I know that for many of you that word comes out at election time and then disappears when the endless politics of budgets takes over. Thus, it is a long term issue, and not meant to solve today’s issues but to ensure that 1. your visions and not colonized by others 2. your visions are the most effective and for the good of all.

It is these visions and alternative scenarios that we will focus on in the mayoral forums and the fish bowls. Research from the sunshine coast suggests that the view of the city as business as usual, while certainly raising housing prices and thus benefiting owners, is not the desired future by most, indeed, only 5% favored this. Most favored three other images. These were 1. electronically linked urban villages, that is, instead of big cities, many linked villages. 2. the triple bottom line sustainable city – prosperity, plus social justice plus environmental concerns. And 3 – the living gaian city, that is, the city that literally becomes alive become of digitalization and spiritualization.

What this means is that spiritual and ethical behaviour is not seen as divorced from local city politics. Normally we segment – and rightly so – the church and city hall (or the temple and city hall) but this emerging vision calls for the integration, reconciliation, of the two. Thus politics is not just seen as what happens at election time, and meditation is not just seen as a personal practice but a new integration of the personal and the political, creating a new imagination of the city.

Certainly we are unlikely to see this type of ethical evolution (here moving far away from Darwinian evolution) for 40-50 years, but in some form, I believe, it is likely to come.

The issue for you as leaders and policy makers is that 1. do you want to resist this image, 2 or create a new vision.

This meeting is your chance to do so, to explore the futures of the city. My hope is that by the end of our three days, we will be able to create not only new memes for the city future, but to say, that at Brisbane, many of the world’s cities charted out a new course for themselves, fundamentally changing city politics and economics.

Futures Dreaming: Challenges From Outside and on the Margins of the Western World (2003)

Ivana Milojevic and Sohail Inayatullah

Abstract

In this article, we challenge the hegemony of western science fiction, arguing that western science fiction is particular even as it claims universality. Its views generally remain based on ideas of the future as forward time. In contrast, in non-western science fiction the future is seen outside linear terms: as cyclical or spiral, or in terms of ancestral time. In addition, western science fiction has focused on the good society as created by technological progress, while non-western science fiction and futures thinking has focused on the fantastic, on the spiritual, and on the realization of eupsychia—the perfect self.

However, most theorists assert that the non-west has no science fiction, ignoring Asian and Chinese science fiction history. As well, western science fiction continues to ‘other’ the non-west as well as those on the margins of the west (African-American woman, for example).

Nonetheless, while most western science fiction remains trapped in binary opposites—alien/non-alien; masculine/feminine; insider/outsider—writers from the west’s margins are creating texts that contradict tradition and modernity, seeking new ways to transcend difference. Given that the imagination of the future creates the reality of tomorrow, creating new science fictions is not just an issue of textual critique but of opening up possibilities for all our futures.

Keywords: Science fiction, Non-west, Alternative Futures

“Science fiction has always been nearly all white, just as until recently, it’s been nearly all male” (Butler [1]).

“Science fiction has long treated people who might or might not exist—extra-terrestrials. Unfortunately, however, many of the same science fiction writers who started us thinking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial life did nothing to make us think about here-at home variation—women, blacks, Indians, Asians, Hispanics, etc” [2].

Is all science fiction western? Is there non-western science fiction? If so, what is its nature? Does it follow the form and content of western science fiction, or is it rendered different by its own local civilizational historical processes and considerations? Has western science fiction moulded the development of the science fiction of the ‘other’, including feminist science fiction, in such a way that anything coming from outside the west is a mere imitation of the real thing? Perhaps non-western science fiction is a contradiction in terms. Or is there authentic non-western fiction which offers alternative visions of the future, of the ‘other’?
Paradigms in Science Fiction

In Positions and Presuppositions in Science Fiction, Darko Suvin argues there are three dominating paradigms of science fiction [3]. The first is the Asimov’s technocratic, wedded to the notional universe of nineteenth-century science, from thermodynamics to behaviorism, man as subject and the universe as an object of cognition. The second model is the classical stateless socialist vision of utopia as shown in Yefremov’s works; and the third is the cosmic/mystical spiritual technocracy of Lem [4]. While Lem might be the most sympathetic to the non-west, all three paradigms dramatically miss the other—the role of family, of woman, of the spiritual. They are unable to account for the worldview of the other within the knowledge categories of the other. Indeed the nature of the west is such that the other has no identity except as a people to be colonized, developed or appropriated—to be mapped onto the body of the west.

African, Asian and women’s identities often exist in other paradigms. First, they are concerned about their historical identity. Second, they are concerned about the collective, the family, as the individual here exists in a space alternative from the western version. Third, the spiritual, or the emotional, the softer side of what it means to be human is more important. This said, it is crucial to note that while there are deep structures, they are played out differently; it is in local specific conditions that structures are both created and expressed—it is history that creates identity. For example, in India and Islam, the historical struggle has been on the gendered nature of public and private space, while in the west, it has been between individualism and the collective, democracy and tyranny.

Yet most anthologies, encyclopedias and histories of science fiction take a universalistic view of science fiction and posit that non-western science fiction is non-existent. The authors they select are “nearly all white…[as well as]… nearly all male”. In addition, it is often thought: how could it be possible for non-western societies to develop images of technologically advanced future societies since they themselves are pre-industrial, pre-modern? For example, although even in the least technologically developed societies, we see ‘cyborgs’ walking on prosthetic legs—their flesh-and-blood legs having been blown up by land mines—cyborg as a category which explores the future (man-in-machine and machine-in-man) has not been imagined, envisioned, or dreamed of in these societies.

There is no conspiracy at work, it is simply that the lenses used by science fiction writers are those given by deep cosmological codes, in this case, those of western civilization. Science fiction, which almost by definition challenges conventional paradigms, has been unable to transcend its own epistemological limitations.

In today’s pre-modern societies, the imagination of the future has not played a part in creating a scientific-technological society, nor has it helped individuals prepare for it. Rather, technological and scientific futures come from outside with few warnings. On the other hand, societies that lead the way in scientific progress also lead the way in creating spaces where the consequences of that progress can be debated, in, for example, creating a public debate on the nature of science. Only writers in western countries, claims Philip John Davies “have had the luxury of being able to indulge in an orgy of debates over definition, form, and politics [of science fiction]”[5]. Thus, the current reality that Euro-American white authors dominate science fiction.

Utopia: Past or Future

Taking a paradigmatic view, to assert that science fiction exists only in the west is merely to favour one particular form of a much wider endeavor. Science fiction thus should not merely be about the technological as defined in forward time but the creation of plausible future worlds from a range of civilizational perspectives [6]. Science fiction is not just about debating the consequences of scientific progress. It is also about creating utopian or at least eutopian (the good, not perfect) societies of the future. This utopian tradition, either in the form of utopias (positive visioning) or in the form of dystopias (warnings) is highly developed in the west. However, such a need for utopian visioning does not exist in societies that have decided that they have already lived their utopia. For example, in Islamic civilization, there is no central need for science fiction because the perfect world already existed, this was the time of the Prophet [7]. There was a perfect democratic state guided by shura (consultation) and there was a wise, perfect, leader who could unify society. The problem has been to re-achieve this state, not create other worlds. In Indian civilization as well, there was Rama Rajya, the mythical kingdom of Rama, as well the time when Krishna ruled over Bharat (India) [8].

In African culture, as well, writes John Mbiti, utopia exists in the past. Time recedes toward the Golden Age, the Zamani period [9]. It is history then that has been and remained central. This does not mean these civilizations are not future-oriented but that the imagination of the future is based on recreating an idealized past [10]. Centuries of colonization have further influenced the central need to recover the past, as the past has been systematically denied to them (either completely erased as with African-Americans or given in a mutilated form as with western developmentalism, that is, as an inferior history that must be transformed). By recovering their own authentic pasts, these societies intend to articulate their own authentic visions of the future [11].

In “Black to the Future”, Mark Dery asks: “Can a community whose past has been deliberately rubbed out, and whose energies have subsequently been consumed by the search for legible traces of its history, imagine possible futures? Furthermore, isn’t the unreal estate of the future already owned by the technocrats, futurologists, and set designers—white to a man—who have engineered our collective fantasies” [12].

Given the reality of fractured societies, can science fiction created outside the west be truly alternative or is it more likely to remain a poor imitation of western science fiction? Is there any other alternative to diminishing the influence of American frontier science fiction except by creating even more violent and even more virtual future worlds?

Can non-western writers, who are often concerned not with utopias but with eusychias—the search for the perfect self—make any sense in the futures and science fiction field? How can cultures that see the spiritual not as exotic or compartmentalized but as the foundation of life, implicated in every packet of consciousness, begin a dialogue with societies imagined in mainstream science fiction, that are replicas of individualistic, secular American/western visions? Thus not only is the future constructed differently (it is past, cyclical, spiral or ancestor-based) but instead of focusing on society, it is the imagination of the perfect self—the enlightened being—that is central to the non-west.

The Fantastic

Another reason why non-western science fiction has not developed as a separate arena of writing because in some cultures the ‘fantastic’ is part of daily life. Myth has not been separated from lived history. There is science fiction but broadly understood, with a different space, meaning and importance. For example, for Indian mystics, other worlds are realizable through astral travel, and aliens do visit the planet—to learn meditation from Indian gurus. Moreover, we are all aliens since we take birth in different planets each life. Krishna lives on Vrindavan, not heaven, but a real planet in the cosmos [13]. What are considered miracles by those in the west (bringing someone back from the dead, walking on water) are simple occult powers one gains from years of discipline. There are numerous millennia-old stories about astral travel, aliens, repossession of souls/bodies, and even mechanical/artificial human beings [14].

Star travel is a common topic in as diverse literary traditions such as the Chinese, Japanese, Australian Aboriginal, Iroquois (Mohawk) Native American and African. In the Chinese tradition there is a tale titled, “Chang E Goes to the Moon” (by Liu An, 197-122 BCE) in which a woman flies to the moon after she steals an elixir of immortality from her husband [15]. Taketori Monogatari is a 10th century Japanese “space fiction … in the genre of folklore” [16] and tells of the Princess Moonlight who first comes to Earth and then returns to the Moon [17]. According to Isao Uemichi, her popularity and the desire people have for her “may eventually turn into a yearning for the better world (the lunar paradise) to which she returned” [18].

A creation story from the Wong-gu-tha (by Mimbardda and re-told by Josie Boyle) tells of two Spirit men (from the far end of the Milky Way) and seven sisters (stars of the Milky way) who were sent to Yulbrada (the Earth) by the Creator Jindoo (the Sun) to shape it. Woddee Gooth-tha-rra (Spirit men) made the hills, the valleys, the lakes and the oceans. Seven Sisters beautified the earth with flowers, trees, birds, animals and “other creepy things”. Six sisters returned to the Milky Way but one of the sisters fell in love with the two Spirit men, and so their special powers were taken away. Two men and the woman became mortal and they became the parents of the earth, made laws and the desert people [Aboriginal Australians] [19]. In the Iroquois tradition there is “The Woman Who Fell from the Sky” [20] and in Africa, Mrs. Onyemuru, ferrywoman at Oguta Lake, tells a story of Ogbuide, the Queen of Women who comes from the moon [21].

In technologically developed societies, spaceships have replaced golden chariots but desire and myth have remained foundational. Western literature and imagination—in terms of the fantastic—has moved from Earth, the mystical world and the past to the future. This desire for the stars eventually has transformed myth into the reality. It has entered public space, while in the non-west, tales of the mysterious, alternative worlds remain in private space, in the Indian tradition, as secrets revealed to the chela by the guru.

Alternatively, it can be argued that tales of space travel can, at best, claim to be “only as prototypical predecessors of science fiction because science fiction is a distinctly modern form of literature” [22]. Having said this, it is also important to note that while science fiction has becoming increasingly a popular genre all over the world, not only prototypical predecessors but also very early works of non-western science fiction writers are being forgotten or marginalized.

Thus, the history of science fiction is written almost exclusively from its Euro-American history. Indeed, even in two civilizations with their own indigenous roots, both Wu Dingbo in China and Koichi Jamano in Japan testify that the development of contemporary Chinese and Japanese science fiction has been based on western rather than traditional stories:

Japanese writers made their debuts deeply influenced by traditional western criteria of SF. Instead of creating their own worlds, they immersed themselves totally into the translated major works of Anglo-American SF. This is like moving into a prefabricated house; the SF genre has grown into out culture regardless of whether there was a place for it [23].
Non-western Science Fiction: Creating Alternative Worlds

Such then is the blindness to tradition and the fascination with the west, that non-western writers do not use their non-western roots as a springboard for their creativity. It is crucial to remember that while conventional wisdom believes that it is Karel Capek “the man who invented robots” (the word robot derived from the Czech word robiti or robata—“to work” or “a worker”) [24] the ‘robot’ has been in the Chinese literary tradition since the fourth century.

In Zhang Zhan’s “Tangwen” in Lie Zi (The Book of Lie Zi, written around 307-313) Yanshi a clever craftsman produces a robot that is capable of singing and dancing. However, this robot keeps on staring at the emperor’s queen. This enrages the emperor who issues an order to kill Yanshi. But then Yanshi opens the robot’s chest and the emperor beholds the artificial human [25]. Robot stories also appear in 7th and 11th century China as well [26].

And while the Islamic tradition looks for its utopias in tradition, we have examples such as Rokeya Sakhawat Hossain who wrote Sultana’s Dream in 1905, a virtually unknown short story that is a predecessor of better known feminist fiction classics such as, for example, Herland (1915). Born in Pairaband, a village in what is now Bangladesh, Rokeya Sakhawat Hossain was a “courageous feminist writer and activist who worked all her life to remove what she called the ‘purdah of ignorance’” [27]. Given that most utopian imaging is political it comes as no surprise that in Sultana’s Dream, Hossain challenges the seclusion of women and their exclusion from political and economic life. In the far-off Ladyland, ladies rule over the country and control all social matters, while gentlemen are kept in the murdanas to mind babies, to cook, and to do all sorts of domestic work. Men are locked as they “do or at least are capable of doing no end of mischief” [28]. You can not trust those untrained men out of doors: it is unfair to shut in the harmless women and let loose the men, remarks sister Sara, Sultana’s conversationalist from the other world. Women in Sultana’s Dream have the difficult task of rebuilding all of society, which they do through education and science. In her utopia, Hossain builds the world without “crime or sin”, where science is used to service the society, where the Queen aims at converting the whole country into one grand garden, and where religion is based on Love and Truth. While Sultana finds herself in an ecotopia, the development of science is still seen as extremely important. The genius of this “unusual story” lies in the transformation of an issue—purdah—to represent “a whole range of patriarchal practices and ideas that shut out the possibility of another world, a world, … that could easily be realized if women were allowed to exercise the wisdom and skills they already have” [29].

Similarly, in Africa, in the continent locked in its ‘past’, Bessie Head creates through her novels better worlds, for women, for migrants, for blacks and ultimately all people. In her fiction she has sought to construct “her vision of the ideal human society—tolerant, accepting, nurturing” [30]. This vision of a harmonious and tolerant society focused on agricultural cooperatives [31] is a far cry from Bessie Head’s country of origin, South Africa during Apartheid. As a refugee in Botswana—having fled South Africa—she builds a vision of society where there is solidarity and cooperation between different genders, classes and races as an “antidote to the exclusion of tribe, race, class and gender that operates in Southern Africa” [32].

In Thai science fiction, we see in the film Kawow tee Bangpleng (Cuckoos at Bangplent, 1994, directed by Nirattisai Kaljareuk) [33] juxtaposition of the local Buddhist temple with the spacecraft. Writes commentator, Adam Knee: “ the image of an ancient statue of Buddha with the craft visible through windows behind it in particular stands as a striking and fertile emblem for the film, forcing a negotiation between Asian and alien, ancient and modern, static and mobile” [34]. The spacecraft sends out a beam that impregnates the local women. The children born are aliens. Over the length of the movie, writes Knee, it becomes clear that the goal is to take over the planet, since their home planet is dying. The local townspeople however remain sympathetic to the children since they have given birth to them and reared them. They are their’s, alien notwithstanding. Local monks—who are psychic like the alien children—as well intervene when the police are about to attack the aliens, once a series of troubling incidents begin.

Knee adds, and this is crucial in this dialogue between alien and Buddhism:

“The monk continues to try to convince Somporn [the alien leader], however, of the importance of keeping his emotions in check, as well as of ‘extending compassion’ to others, along the lines of Buddhist teachings. Somporn generally scoffs at these suggestions but… nevertheless grudgingly agrees to let some of the youths use their alien powers to help the humans when floods threaten the town. As an indirect result of their exertions, however, the youths start to fall ill and die; an autopsy reveals that another physical difference—a lack of a spleen—has rendered them susceptible to earthly diseases. The aliens realize that the planet will not sustain their race and that the survivors must return to the ship; [the alien] Somporn now comes to appreciate the monk’s message of empathy and bids him an affectionate farewell, as do the other alien children to their sobbing human parents, before ascending to the sky” [35].

Concludes Knee:

“The emphasis in Kawow then—very unlike that of most western science fiction films–is on local adaptation to rather than expulsion of the alien, which is met in turn by learning and adaptation on the part of the alien. This is made most explicit in the extensive scenes of interaction between the abbot and Somporn, the leader of the alien group and correspondingly the most recalcitrant, as well as the most disdainful of human habits and, more specifically, the Thai-Buddhist worldview” [36].

While this is partly about Buddhist notions of compassion, it is also intrinsic to some experiences of colonialism, of responding to othering by inclusion, instead of continuing the process and becoming like the dominator. The way forward then becomes an understanding of our mutual mortality, human and alien.

Science Fiction as a Marginal Genre

While there is science fiction in all cultures, it is only the west that has systematized science and fiction, made it into an industrial endeavor, and created a particular brand of literature called science fiction. Part of this process has been the privileging its own from of fiction and seeing the dreaming of others as irrelevant, as duplication/ replica/extension (Japanese science fiction, manga and anime) or naive (feminist science fiction).

However, science fiction itself has also been a marginal genre. This marginality has allowed and been a cause of its ability to open spaces for thinking the unthinkable, and exploring unknown unknowns. The marginality of science fiction in society is in direct proportion with science fiction’s radicalism. As a marginal genre, science fiction has explored ideas otherwise not cherished by the rest of mainstream/conservative society. In Russia/Soviet Union, science fiction has often allowed spaces for powerful social critique, for dissent. However, in different periods, Russian/Soviet science fiction served important social control functions: for example, to spread Bolshevism among the young, skilled, urban workers prior to the revolution or to support industrial Five Year Plans during the Stalinist era [37]. In American movies, as cinema technology advances science fiction is increasingly losing its ‘edge’ and becoming entertainment that seeks to reinforce nationalism and the power of the nation-state. Contrast the 1980’s Blade Runner with the late 1990’s Independence Day or Starship Troopers.

While packaging itself as a ‘pure entertainment’ American science fiction continues to serve social control functions. One is to prepare and de-sensitise the populace for the consequences of post-modern global capitalism. For example, the movie Gattaca, created as a ‘what if this continues’ type of scenario still serves the social function of supporting continued eugenic efforts (present since the beginning of the colonisation) of excluding the different and creating a perfect (white) human being.

The other function is what Marx has called to “dull the blade of class (and gender and minority’s or postcolonial) struggle”. For example, movies like The Matrix, Deep Impact, Armageddon, Independence Day, Mars Attacks apart from using conservative and overdone man-the-hero-saving-the-world theme are there to teach us that we should be happy with our present (social) order as the future can be much worse. High-tech progress may lead to disaster. Catharsis and relief comes after the threat to our future-as-the-continuation-of-the-present has been successfully battled and defeated. The meteor, or the comet, or aliens, or artificial intelligence or any other ‘Other’ who threaten the powerful male elite (usually combining male scientists, brilliant male outcasts and government) are after combat defeated. Patriarchy, liberalism and statism win, claiming to have liberated all and everyone.

However, there are many levels to the discourses under operation. The Matrix, for example, can be read as a metaphor for our present lives and societies (focused on material advancement) and as a call for the spiritual, in which the veil of ignorance is removed and enlightenment revealed, with all limitations seen merely as Maya, illusion (similarly to Contact). Yet these subtle spiritual meanings are drowned by the masculinist focus on power battles. For example, Keanu Reeves can be read as a clever programmer within the western frame or from a non-western Tantric, Vedic or Buddhist frame as a bodhisattva, returning to liberate our selves trapped by technocracy and materialism. The medium becomes the message, massaging us into a light speed of violence. These movies certainly fail to become a tool that can “subvert the central myths of origin of western Culture with their longing for fulfillment in apocalypse” [38]. Ultimately, Reeves or Neo becomes neither programmer nor bodhisattva, instead sacrificing self for the good of peace, becomes the Christ savior returned. The Matrix Revolutions – even as it challenges notions of life, machine, human and virtual – is foundationally Christian (sacrifice and Christ the savior) and Western technological (we make tools and thereafter they make us).  However, it does attempt to challenge the ego of the West (linear, crisis based, technological) with the alter-ego of the West (feminine, green, organic).  The Oracle thus becomes the gaian shakti figure countering the male architect of the Matrix and hyper-masculinity of Machine city (and its sperm-line machines swarming Zion). Thus some layering is there. However, if other cultural myths had been used as resources, far more depth would have been possible. But other cultures are not seen as real unto themselves.

Thus another role current mainstream science fiction plays in American and subsequently global society is to ‘other’ difference. This is most often done by projecting difference onto the alien. Our terrestrial differences are not owned, rather, they are exported into outer space (foreign space). The alien does not only help create our identity (in terms of the binary oppositions) but is also seen as a danger to us and should consequently be exterminated. The ‘othering’ of the difference can also be done through picturing the other in total submission. One example is The Handmaiden’s Tale, a powerful feminist critique transformed into voyeuristic feast for patriarchal males and serving a similar social function as the pornographic, The Story of O. It also encourages us to think that our current patriarchy does not look that bad after all.  Women are also the monsters of the future, writes Rosi Braidotti in her essay, “Cyberteratologies,” aptly subtitled, “Female Monsters Negotiate the Other’s Participation in Humanity’s Far Future.” [39]  Argues Braidotti:” Contemporary social imaginary .. directly blames women for postmodernity’s crisis of identity. In one of those double binds that occur so often in regard to representing those people marked as different, women are portrayed as unruly elements who should be controlled – represented as so many cyber-Amazons in need of governance.” [40] Women as monster becomes the future, with the solution that of Superman and the Superstate taking over the role of birthing and caring.

Yet another way in which the othering of the difference is done is by ridiculing the Other. One example is in the highest grossing movie in 1999, Star Wars: Episode One, The Phantom Menace. One can get a sense of the worldview of Lucas and others by simply analysing the accents and sites of action. The Jedi Knights speak with western (a mix of British/West Coast American) accents (that is, in terms of today’s categories of accents, no accent at all). They are the highest of humanity. The lowest are those who live on the planet Tatooine. They are made to look like Muslim Arabs. But they are just uncivilized and not to be worried about. The danger comes from the Trade Federation. They speak with a mixture of an East Asian and Eastern European accent, the twin dangers to the west—East Asia in terms of creating a new economic system, and Eastern Europe as the (orthodox, not reinvented) traditionalism of the west. And what of Africans and Islanders? They are, of course, not quite real, as in all mythologies, friendly natives, slightly silly, happy-go-lucky (in Star Wars, the Gungans, the underwater race on Naboo). Of course, this typology was denied by Lucas, as it should be, how could he see the air he breathes, fish cannot deconstruct water, and the west is unable to see the world it has penned. But while it appears that the mythic brilliance of the movie is that real evil comes from within, from the west itself, in the form of the desire for more power, the emperor (Senator and later Emperor Palpatine); this, however, ends up being a jingoistic concern with democracy, with the American way of Life. Essentially it is a battle of democracy against despotism, with the good guys a mixture of Californian pop mysticism and true democracy, and the bad guys as foreigners and as those who engage in trade wars. The latest Star Wars installment thus even as if it appears that it is venturing into worlds far away, in fact, reinscribes present constructions of self and other, west and Non-west.

This analysis is not meant as a contribution to postmodern cultural critique but as a pointer of dangers ahead. Our collective imaginations become deadened as Star Wars becomes the naturalized form of science fiction. Other cultures see themselves as less, and either seek vengeance through religious extremism or create schizophrenic personalities in which they other themselves. Globalism continues it march onwards, reducing the possibility of alternative futures, particularly from others. Current science fiction forgets that we are all migrants to the future.

Frank Herbert’s Dune (the  2001 TV/video release as well as the earlier 1984 movie) appears to move away from this construction of the other, by empowering the freman, the others in the movie. However, at a deeper level, the other is either ridiculed or seen as the romantic warrior, the mystic—Orientalized. Removed from civilization, the freman are intimate with the desert, and develop a mystic bond with the spice. Their mystical power is countered to the technological prowess of the Emperor and the House of Harkonnens. And yet, they do not find their salvation through their own agency, but it is the ‘white’ Paul Atredis (as Lawrence of Arabia has done on this planet) who comes and saves them. He does go native, however, taking the freman name of Muad’Dib. It is not in them to develop or be victorious, it takes the overlord, the ruling class to provide freedom. Their ‘humanity’ is denied to them. And, their freedom does not transform the structure of feudalism but continues class rule, however, it is now the kinder House of Atredis that will now rule Thus, what appears as victory for the warrior and mystical freman is in fact a continuation of colonization. It is traditional linear macrohistory—The Orient cannot develop through its own creativity, it must be developed by the civilized. The style of speaking, the clothes all make clear that this is a battle within Europe (the emperor versus the Harkonnes versus the Atredis) with the freman (Bedouins) merely the backdrop to their cosmic intrigue. And nature—the worms—they are of course conquered by Paul Muad’Dib Atredis. With nature conquered, the non-west liberated, the evil powers in Europe defeated—and the spice (oil) safe—humanity can once again prosper. The empire is dead. Long live the empire.

From Space to High Noon

Far more obvious is how Star Wars and other science fiction functions to ‘push the western frontier’. Gregory Pfitzer claims that the most persistent myth in American culture, that of the frontier, has shown remarkable resilience since its firstly emerged in the 18th century [41]. In our times, what was once projected westward is now simply projected upward and outward [42]. “Western cowboys [are transformed] into space cowboys, high-noon gunfights into celestial shootouts, and frontier expansion into the politics of space ownership on the high frontier” [43]. Pfitzer concludes that such outdated frontier mythologies are doing American society damage: they do not help shape beneficial cultural self-images, bear little relationship to present realities and threaten to bind people too tightly to highly conventional, form-bound ideologies. He believes that new mythologies need to be considered, mythologies that will serve the culture better, especially those that “reverse exploitation and racism while prescribing more realistic avenues for public action” [44]. More recently, the frontier has gone from space to virtuality.

Some examples of how this is being done exist even in American society. For example, recent versions of the popular series Star Trek (Voyager and Deep Space Nine) challenges many of our old mythologies and given identities.  And even more so is the work of African-American authors, for example, Samuel Delany and Octavia Butler.

Ways Out

Labeled as “the only African-American woman writing science-fiction” Octavia Butler’s work challenges not only patriarchal myths, but also capitalist myths, racist myths, and feminist-utopian myths [45]. She also challenges “the binary oppositions of alien and non-alien, insider and outsider, masculine and feminine”, [46] undoing the essentialisms of tradition and modernity. Butler’s characters seem to face the same issue and dilemma: “they must force themselves to evolve, accepting differences and rejecting a world view that centers upon their lives and values, or become extinct” [47]. While in most science fiction the alien is seen as the (potential) destroyer of the human race, for Butler, aliens can save and improve the human race and also themselves. Cooperation is necessary, as often the only alternative is extinction. But the other is both external and internal. “The self and the other cannot exist separately. They are defined by one another, a central part of each other’s identity”, [48] and there is even the “desire for the alien, the other, for difference within ourselves” [49]. Butler’s work seem to suggest that old mythologies that produce “the hierarchies of center and margins, of colonizer and colonized, of alien and other, no longer provide an appropriate or adequate vocabulary with which to articulate the possibilities for change” [50]. In the words of Octavia Butler:

Human Beings fear difference… Oankali crave difference. Humans persecute their different ones, yet they need them to give themselves definition and status. Oankali seek difference and collect it. They need it to keep themselves from stagnation and overspecialization…when you feel a conflict, try to go the Oankali way. Embrace difference. [51]

The Politics and Futures of Science Fiction

“‘Fantasies’, of course, are never ideologically ‘innocent’ texts” [52]. But fantasies, including science fiction ones, can serve conservative ideologies that promote old divisions and interests of the dominant social/cultural/racial/gender group. Or they can serve ideologies which would unable us all to move forward and create truly innovative future societies. Science fiction images do not merely reflect our current anxieties and desires. Through their powerful visualisation they create the need for what is seen and encourage efforts to duplicate in the future, science fiction’s déjà vu. The litanies of our lives crave for myths to give them meaning. In turn, myths help create future litanies, as either their extensions or their oppositions. Science fiction and how it ‘others’ us, how it continues a particular civilization’s domination by assuming others do not have a science fiction or defining itself in exclusive terms (such that other cultures visions are merely the naively impossible) becomes part of the naturalising discourse of domination. However, science fiction with its focus on creating alternative world, on liberating us from our own mythologies, limitations, plays a pivotal role in liberating us from our own slaveries.

The Political-Economy of Imagination

If left alone, science fiction will continue its present role in supporting the cultural project of the only surviving ‘Empire’ at the beginning of the Third millennia (as time counted by the west).

Contemplating on the reasons for the explosion of science fiction and space fiction in our time, science fiction writer Doris Lessing claims that this explosion is happening because the nature of the human mind is undergoing an expansion process, it is being forced to expand [53]. She further states that science fiction and space fiction writers must explore “the sacred literatures of the world in the same bold way they take scientific and social possibilities to their logical conclusions…[We] make a mistake when we dismiss [sacred literature of all races and nations] as quaint fossils from a dead past” [54]. The rich traditions of many people of the world will make such science and utopian fiction of the future enormously exciting. It will be able to express the voices of peoples silenced by hundreds of years of western monoculture, of world capitalism. Science fiction can be a medium for not only subversion but also for the development of the authentic futures.

Writes Marge Piercy on feminist science fiction:

“One characteristic of societies imagined by feminists is how little isolated women are from each other. Instead of the suburban dream turned nightmare in which each house contained a woman alone and climbing the walls, or the yuppie apartment house where no one speaks but each has perfect privacy in her little electronic box, the societies women dream up tend to b a long coffee klatches or permanent causal meetings. Everybody is in everybody else’s hair .. society is decentralized .. nurturing is a strong value .. communal responsibility for a child begins at home.” [55]

The vision is certainly pastoral with Earth Rolling along. [56]

Of course, authentic futures are limited by the nature of the market. For example, in Latin America “most science fiction is brief, embodied in short stories rather then in novels … [which] … is due to the fact that it is more feasible to publish short fiction than to publish longer stories, as the editorial industry as well as the market is limited” [57].

There is also a great danger of producing “fragmented and inconsistent images … from the modern and premodern eras … interwoven with new and surprising cultural elements” [58]—of becoming cultural and “literary imposters as New Age Pipecarriers for any and all of The Nations” creating colonising visions that would surpass even the traditional ones.

Even lumping all non-western science fiction into one entity means submerging it into the category of ‘the Rest’ as defined by the Empire. It is therefore also important to remember that even within the category of ‘the Rest’ different others have different status, role and image being ascribed to them. The best science fiction undoes the defining categories it begins with.

Also, apart from ‘responding’ to dominant future images produced in the west as well as looking at possible prototypes or cultural predecessors, non-western science fiction writers need to fill in the empty spaces, create alternative histories and imagine past visions of the future as if they had been written.

Still the reality is that “Black Women do not have time to dream”, argue Miriam Tlali and Pamela Ryan [59]. While we should look at the conditions that have prevented Black Women from dreaming, black women of today can reinvent these past future images for their foremothers. Some of those visions have been expressed in traditional cultures, some in past and present grass-root women’s movements in the Third World; movements that are simultaneously challenging poverty, racism and colonisation as well as gender subordination. While indigenous history has been often erased and the technocratic visions of tomorrow reign supreme it is never too late to rediscover one’s own original direction.

Science Fiction and the Future of the Other

Generally mainstream science fiction has not done so well writing the other, even though ultimately everything it is about is the other. This precisely because science fiction has largely become framed by one culture. And this is why it is important (while acknowledging the danger of being lumped into ‘the Rest’) to encourage the search, valorization, and publication of science fiction (in its broadest sense) around the world.

It is also important to see the future, science fiction, within the historical and cultural terms of other civilizations, not merely rescuing them within the dominant themes of the west, but also developing the process of an authentic conversation and dialogue about self and other; space and future; alien and human.

To do this we must rescue dominant science fiction from its own paradigmatic blinders, showing how it continues the project of one-culture hegemony. What must be encouraged is a dialogue of visions of the future and past across civilization, such that authenticity from each civilization can lead to a new universal of what it means to be human and not human.

This of course holds true not only for science fiction but also for futures studies (utopian studies, etc) as well as scholarship in general. Nothing could be more important as we create a world for future generations for all of us. The desire to dream is the universal endeavor of us, humans, appearing all over the globe, even at the most unexpected places (for example, woman writing science/utopian fiction in Bangladesh at the very beginning of the Twentieth century). To culturally appropriate this desire and submerge into not only one genre, but also one history and a few themes is to deny the realities of our terrestrial past, present and future lives. We can dream otherwise.


 

Notes:

1.        Butler O. quoted in Wolmark J. Aliens and Others: Science Fiction, Feminism and Postmodernism. Iowa City: University of Iowa Press; 1994:28.

2.        Ibid.

3.        Suvin D. Positions and Presuppositions in Science Fiction. London: Macmillan Press, 1988. See especially chapter 8: “Three World Paradigms for SF: Asimov, Yefremov, Lem”. For a website devoted to definitions of science fiction, see: http://www.panix.com/~gokce/sf_defn.html. The site states: Science fiction is really sociological studies of the future, things that the writer believes are going to happen by putting two and two together. Accessed, October 12, 2000.

4.        Ibid.

5.        Davies P J. Science fiction and conflict. In: Davies P, editor. Science Fiction, Social Conflict, and War. Manchester: Manchester University Press; 1990:5.

6.        Discussion with Frederik Pohl over lunch, April 15, Seattle, Washington, Foundation for the Future symposium on Humanity in the Year 3000. See: www.futurefoundation.org. Also see, Pohl F. The Politics of Prophecy. In: Hassler D, Wilcox C, editors. Political Science Fiction. Columbia, South Carolina: University of South Carolina; 1997.

7.        El-Affendi A. Who Needs an Islamic State? London: Grey Seal, 1991.

8.        See Inayatullah S. Indian Philosophy, Political. In: Craig E, editor. Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy. London: Routledge Press; 1998.

9.        Case F I. Negritude and Utopianism. In: Jones ED, African Literature Today. New York: African Publishing Company; 1975:70.

10.     See Inayatullah S. Toward a Post-Development Vision of the Future: The Shape and Time of the Future. In: Slaughter R, editor. The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies: Directions and Outlooks. Vol. 3. Melbourne: DDM Publishers; 1996:113-126.

11.     See Galtung J, Inayatullah S, editors. Macrohistory and Macrohistorians. Westport, Connecticut: Praeger, 1997. Also see, Sardar Z, Nandy A, Wyn Davies M. Barbaric Others: A Manifesto of Western Racism. London: Pluto Press, 1993, and Sardar Z, editor. Rescuing All Our Future: The Futures of Futures Studies. Twickenham, England: Adamantine Press, 1999.

12.     Dery M. Black to the Future: Interviews with Samuel R. Delany, Greg Tate, and Tricia Rose. The South Atlantic Quarterly 1993; 92(3-4):736.

13.     See, Back to Godhead. The magazine of the Hare Krishna Movement. PO Box 255, Sandy Ridge, NC, 27046, USA.

14.     For example, the first known description of the ‘robot’ comes from fourth century China. From: Wu Dingbo, Chinese Science Fiction. In: Dingbo W, Murphy PD, editors. Handbook of Chinese Popular Culture. Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood Press; 1994:258.

15.     Ibid.

16.     Uemichi I S. Japanese Science-Fiction in the International Perspective. In: Bauer R, et al., editors. Proceedings of the XIIth Congress of the International Comparative Literature Association: Space and Boundaries in literature. Munich: International Comparative Literature Association; 1988.

17.     Ibid.

18.     Ibid.

19.     Stories of the Dreaming: http://www.dreamtime.net.au/seven/text.htm

20.     Gunn Allen P. Spider Woman’s Granddaughters: Traditional Tales and Contemporary Writing by Native American Women. New York: Fawcett Columbine, 1989:65.

21.     Umeh M. Signifyin(g) The Griottes; Flora Nwapa’s Legacy of (Re)Vision and Voice. Research in African Literatures 1995; 26(2): 114.

22.     Dingbo W:259.

23.     Jamano K. Japanese SF, Its Originality and Orientation (1969). Science-Fiction Studies 1994; 21(1): 70.

24.     Moskowitz S, Capek K. The man who invented robots. In: Moskowitz S. Explorers of the Infinite Westport, Connecticut: Hyperion Press Inc.; 1963:208, 211.

25.     Dingbo W:258.

26.     Dingbo W:259.

27.     Tharu S, Lalita K. Women Writing in India. New York, The City University of New York: The Feminist Press, 1991:340.

28.     Hossain R. Sultana’s Dream. In: Tharu S, Lalita K:344.

29.     Tharu S, Lalita K:167

30.     Kibera V. Adopted Motherlands: The Novels of Marjorie Macgoye and Bessie Head. In: Nasta S, editor. Motherlands: Black Women’s Writing from Africa, the Caribbean and South Asia. New Brunswick, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press; 1992:315.

31.     Head B. When Rain Clouds Gather. London: Heinemann, New Windmill Series, 1968:22.

32.     Kibera V:326.

33.     Knee A. Close encounters of the generic kind: a case study in Thai sci-fi. At: http://www.latrobe.edu.au/screeningthepast/current/cc1100.html.

34.     Ibid.

35.     Ibid.

36.     Ibid.

37.     Rosenberg K. Soviet Science Fiction: To The Present Via the Future. Massachusetts: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Alumni Association, 1987.

38.     Haraway D. Cyborg Manifesto:175. Quoted in Miller J. Post-Apocalyptic Hoping: Octavia Butler’s Dystopia/Utopian Vision. Science-Fiction Studies 1998: 25(2):338.

39.     Rosi Braidotti, “ Cyberteratologies: Female Monsters Negotiate the Other’s Participation in Humanity’s Far Future,” in Marlene S. Barr, ed. Envisioning the Future: Science Fiction and the Next Millennium. Middletown, Ct, Wesleyan University Press, 2003, 146-172.

40.     Ibid, 163.

41.     Pfitzer GM. The Only Good Alien Is a Dead Alien: Science Fiction and the Metaphysics of Indian-Hating on the High Frontier., Journal of American Culture 1995;18(1):51. The animated film Toy Story is one example of how the similarity and tension between Woodie the cowboy and Buzz Lightyear is worked out.

42.     Ibid.

43.     Ibid.

44.     Pfitzer GM:65

45.     Miller J. Post Apocalyptic Hoping: Octavia Butler’s Dystopian/Utopian Vision. Science-Fiction Studies 1998; 25(2):337.

46.     Wolmark J. Aliens and Others. Iowa City: University of Iowa Press, 1994:28.

47.     Green ME. There Goes the Neighborhood: Octavia Butler’s Demand for Diversity in Utopias. In: Domawerth JM, Komerten CA, editors. Utopian and Science Fiction by Women: Worlds of Difference. Syracuse, New York: Syracuse University Press; 1994:169. The best of south Asian fiction as well portrays these dilemmas. See the works of Saadat Hasan Manto.

48.     Miller J:346.

49.     Peppers K. Dialogic Origins and Alien Identities in Butler’s Xenogenesis. Science-Fiction Studies 1995; 22(1):60.

50.     Wolmark J:35.

51.     Butler O. Adulthood Rites. Quoted in Green ME:189.

52.     Pearson J. Where no man has gone before: sexual politics and women’s science fiction. In: Davies PJ, editor. Science Fiction, Social Conflict, and War. Manchester: Manchester University Press; 1990:9.

53.     For the works of Doris Lessing, see, http://lessing.redmood.com/

54.     Ibid. Exact quote citation missing.

55.     Marge Piercy, “Love and Sex in the Year 3000,” in Marlene S. Barr, ed. Envisioning the Future: Science Fiction and the Next Millennium. Middletown, Ct, Wesleyan University Press, 2003, 137

56.     Ibid.

57.     Kreksch I. Reality Transfigured: The Latin American Situation as Reflected in Its Science Fiction. In: Hassler DM, Wilcox C. Political Science Fiction. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1997:178.

58.     Willard W. Pipe Carriers of The Red Atlantis: Prophecy/Fantasy. Wicazo Sa Review: A Journal of Native American Studies 1994; X(1):25.

59.     Ryan P. Black Women Do Not Have Time to Dream: The Politics of Time and Space. Tulsa Studies in Women’s Literature 1992; 11(Spring):95-102.

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An earlier version of this paper appeared in Futures (Vol 35, No. 5, 493-507).

Ivana Milojevic is a postdoctoral research fellow at the Graduate School of Education, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072. ivanam@mailbox.uq.edu.au.  Her forthcoming book for Routledge is titled Postwestern and Feminist Futures of Education.

Sohail Inayatullah is Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan and University of the Sunshine Coast. He is co-editor of the Journal of Futures Studies and Associate Editor of New Renaissance. His books published in 2002 include: Understanding Sarkar; Transforming Communication; Questioning the Future; and, Youth Futures. s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au and info@metafuture.org, www.metafuture.org

A Gaia of Civilizations or the Artificial Society: Power, Structure and the Future (2003)

Sohail Inayatullah

Attempts to forecast global futures fall into three or so camps. Most extrapolate from the present focusing on variables such as population, resource capacity and distribution of wealth.  Technology, economics and power are seen as the key drivers. From these a range of scenarios are posited (Rich/Poor divide; The Long Boom; Global Collapse).  Others focus less on the trends and more on aspirations – what images people desire the future to be like. Community-oriented, deep democracy, appropriate technology and individual self-actualization tend to be the descriptors of this more idealistic future. The driver is generally human agency.  A third set of forecasts focus neither on trends or aspirations but at other forces, either the transcendental (Hegel’s geist moving through history or the return of the avatar/jesus, for example or evolution – survival of the fittest). The future that results does so because of factors that are generally external to human beings, grander variables.

What is often lost in these important attempts to understand the future are the structural constraints and structural possibilites.  In this sense, few scenarios go beyond the dictates of the present (trend extrapolation), the dictates of vision (aspiration scenarios) and the dictates of telelogy (the transcendental/evolutionary).

Structural approaches explore the parameters of the possible future. What is probable, not because of current trends (although these are often defined by structural forces) or agency or the transcendental but because of real historical limits.

If we begin to explore the long term, from a macrohistorical (Galtung and Inayatullah, 1997) view, there are range of possibilities that define the shape of the long term.  In this essay, we focus on four factors.  The first is P.R. Sarkar theory of varna (or deep episteme).  From this, the future is contoured by Sarkar’s notion of four types of power (worker, warrior, intellectual and merchant or chaotic/service; cooercive/protective; religious/intellectual; and, remunerative). The second is based on culture and is derived from Sorokin’s ideas of  three types of systems (sensate focused on materialism, ideational focused on religion and integrated, balancing earth and heaven). The third is based on class and is derived from Immanuel Wallerstein’s world systems theory. The fourth is based on gender and is derived from Riane Eisler’s theory of Patriarchy – male and female power.

Simply stated – and glossing quite a bit of history – there have been four structures.

1.                  World Empire – victory of warrior historical power – coercive/protective – sensate – patriarchy – ksattriya

2.                  World Church – victory of intellectual power – normative – ideational – patriarchy – vipra

3.                  Mini-systems – small, self-reliant cultural systems – ideational –androgny – shudra

4.                  World economy – globalizing economics along national divisions – sensate – vaeshyan

The question is, which structure is likely to dominate in the next 25 to 50 years? Option 1 is unlikely given countervailing powers – given that there is more than one hegemon in the world system and given that there is a lack of political legitimacy for recolonization, for simply conquering other nations. The human rights discourse while allowing intervention in failing nations still severely delimits nation to nation conquest.

Option 2, a world church, is also unlikely given that there are many civilizations (from muslim to christian to shinto to modern secular) vying for minds and hearts. While the millennium has evoked passions associated with the end of man, and the return of Jesus, Amida Buddha or the Madhi, the religious pluralism that is our planet is unlike to be swayed toward any one religion.

Option 3 is possible because of potential decentralizing impact of telecommunication systems and the aspiration by many for self-reliant ecological communities electronically linked. However, small systems tend to be taken over by warrior power, intellectual/religious power or larger economic globalizing propensities.  In the context of a globalized world economy, self-reliance is difficult to maintain. Moreover, centralizing forces and desire for power at the local level limits the democratic/small is beautiful impulse.

Option 4, the world economy, has been the stable for the last few hundred years but it now appears that a bifurcation to an alternative system or to collapse (and reconquest by the warriors) is possible.  Crises in environment, governance, legitimacy all reduce the strength of the world system.

Revolutions from above (global institutions from UN, WTO, IMF) and regional institutions (APEC) and revolutions from below (social movements and nongovernmental organizations), revolutions from technology (cyber democracy, cyber communities and cyber lobbying) and revolutions from capital (globalization) make the nation far more porous as well as the chaotic interstate system that underlies it.

A countervailing force are revolutions from the past – the imagined past of purity and sovereignty (economic sovereignty, racial purity, and idealized good societies), which (1) seeks to strengthen the nation state (to either fight mobility of individuals –immigration – or mobility of capital – globalization – or mobility of ideas – cultural imperialism and (2) seeks to create new nation states (ethno-nationalism).

However, none of these problems can be solved in isolation thus leading to the strengthening of global institutions, even for localist parties, who now realize that for their local agendas to succeed they must become global political parties, globalizing themselves, and in turn moving away from their ideology of localism and self-reliance.

Thus what we are seeing even in the local is a necessity to move to the global. There is no other way. The issue, of course, is which globalism? Thus, globalism is not merely the freeing of capital, but the freeing of ideas (multiculturalism – challenging the western canon, modernity, secularism, linear time) and eventually the globalization of labor.

While the latter is currently about fair wages for workers throughout the world (in terms of purchasing power), it also means that for elite workers movement throughout the world is now possible – university positions in varied nations, or moving from ingo to ingo, multinational to multinational, nation-hopping and passport collecting. This could eventually lead to a real globalization of labor and the creation of the Marxian dream – a world where workers unite – and challenge capitalist power.

Globalized labor is even more likely given the rapid aging of Western societies, where to survive economically, they will need a massive inflow of immigrants to work to support the retirement bulge. Historically the median age has been 20, it is quickly moving to 40 plus in OECD nations. Who will purchase the stocks sold by babyboomers as they begin to retire and pay for their leisure lifestyles? (Peterson, 1999). Only elites in developing nations are likely to do so.

Choices

For the West there are three choices: (1) Import labor, open the doors of immigration and become truly multicultural and younger. Those nations who do that will thrive financially (the US and England, for example), those who cannot because of localist politics will find themselves slowly descending down the ladder (Germany and Japan, for example).

The second choice is dramatically increase productivity through new technologies, that is, fewer people producing more goods (or a mix of immigration and email outsourcing). While the first stage is the convergence of computing and telecommunications technology (the Net), nano-technology is the end dream of this.

The third choice is the reengineering of the population – creating humans in hospitals. This is the end game of the genetics revolution. The first phase is: genetic prevention. Phase two is genetic enhancement (finding ways to increase intelligence, typing second, language capacity) and phase three is genetic recreation, the creation of new species, super and sub races (Inayatullah and Fitzgerald, 1996; Foundation for the Future, 2000).

This is the creation of the Artificial society. The convergence of computers, telecommunications and genetics, seeing genes as information and finding ways to manipulate this information. The main points of this future are:

·                    Genetic Prevention, Enhancement and Recreation – New Species , Germ Line Engineering and the End of “Natural” Procreation

·                    Soft and Strong Nano-Technology – End of Scarcity and Work

·                    Space Exploration – Promise of Contact or at Least, Species Continuation

·                    Artificial Intelligence – The Rights of Robots

·                    Life Extension and Ageing – Gerontocracy and the End of Youth Culture

·                    Internet – the Global Brain

The underlying ethos is that technology can solve every problem and lead to genuine human progress.

In the long run, this creates a new globalization, where the very nature of nature (once stable, now dramatically alterable) is transformed.

Coupled with changes in nature are processes that are changing the nature of truth. Postmodernism and multiculturalism all contest stable notions of truth, instead seeing reality as for more porous, based on individual, cultural and epistemic perception, essentially political. Reality as well is less fixed, whether from quantum notions of what is essential, or spiritual notions of life as microvita, as perception and empirical, or from virtual reality, where the world around is no longer the foundation for knowing and living what is.

Taken with the problematic nature of sovereignty of self and nation, the stability of the last few hundred years of the world economy/interstate system are suspect.

What this means is that globalism as the agenda of neo-liberalism has far gone beyond the original program (or perhaps fulfilling the deep code of the program). Technologies and the reductionist scientific process they are embedded in are creating a new world where nothing will have a resemblance to what we historically knew, making humans superfluous.

Other Scenarios

But returning to our structural perspective, alternative scenarios are possible. This is the Collapse, the convergence of new technologies gone wrong, the technological fix creating even more problems – new viruses, new species, for example. Nuclear meltdown, virtual stock markets delinked from real economies and postmodern cultural depression, even madness, are further problems.

Next is the globalized multicultural society – the vision of the social movements. Globalization, in this future, would extend to the liberation of not just capital but as mentioned above: (1) labor (the right to travel and work eventually eliminating visas and passports). (2) Culture (news, information, meaning, ideas, worldview) moving from south to north, and not just as commodities for liberalism to allay its colonial guilt. The long term implication is the creation of a gaia of civilizations, each in authentic interaction and interpenetration of the other, each needing the other for survival and “thrival” (3) A global security system, that is, for issues such as war, terrorism, global climate change, viruses, and new problems being created by the globalization of capital and technology.

This world – a communicative/inclusive vision of the future – would have the following characteristics:

·                    Challenge is not technology but creating a shared global ethics

·                    Dialogue of civilizations and between civilizations in the context of multiple ways of knowing

·                    Prama – balanced but dynamic economy. Technological innovation leads to shared cooperative “capitalism”

·                    Maxi-mini global wage system – incentive linked to distributive justice

·                    A soft global governance system with 1000 local bio-regions

·                    Layered identity,  moving  from ego/religion/nation to rights of all

·                    Microvita (holistic) science – life as intelligent

The underlying perspective would be that a global ethics with a deep commitment to communication could solve every problem this would then be a systems bifurcation where the world polity would become decentralized – either networked or loose confederations or multiple hegemons – and the world economy as well would be decentralized. Culture would move from uniculturalism to multiculturalism to human culture (our genetic similarities are among the surprising benefits of the mapping of the human genome, ie there is no genetic cause for racism and racial differences).  It would be a future with a non-strategic governance partnership society.

However, while the aspirations for a soft world governance system are laudable – during times of intense transformation, plastic time, where there is a struggle between worldviews and processes – there is a new center, a reordering of power.  Power does not so easily go away.  Exploitation can be reduced but its elimination is unlikely.

The structural reality is that over time what will emerge will be a world government system with strong localism. That is, the communicative-inclusive vision of the future does not adequately address issues of power; it is focused far more on aspirations. This world polity will likely have a world constitution with basic rights such as language, basic needs, culture and religion enshrined. It would be a stronger version of the communicative-inclusive society, that is, with some teeth with it, in the form of a functioning world court, for example – perhaps a balance to the four types of power referred to above. This system would be a planetary system and not an empire since there would be no single state hegemon nor would there be conquest per se.

Still it is the creation of an artificial society with deep cleavages between those with access to wealth, information and genetic technology that remains quite likely. The elite would be from the North, older, and will be able to extend their life span by thirty to fifty years. Outside the walls of technocracy, will be the others.

And it is the fear of others that will define the polity of the artificial society. Two political systems are likely – a world empire (the rise of new Napoleon using genomic and net warfare as the main methods of conquest) or a world church/technocracy (a religion of perfection with gene doctors becoming the holders of life and liberty). In the communicative-inclusive future, there will either be a soft governance system or stronger world government system. From a structural view, the latter is far more likely.

But there remain many unanswered questions.

How will the new technologies and resultant cultures evolve? Who will control them, how will they be used? Will social movements be able to successfully resist elite science (concentrated intellectual and military and technocratic/economic power) using culture and technology to create inclusive futures? Will a more public and responsible postnormal science develop (that includes the subjective and the ethical)? Will multiculturalism transform the West or will the artificial society beat back the invading others?


 

References

Foundation for the Future (2000). The Evolution of Human Intelligence. Bellevue, Washington, Foundation for the Future, 2000.

Galtung, J and Inayatullah, S (1997) Macrohistory and Macrohistorians. Wesport, Ct, Praeger.

Inayatullah S and Fitzgerald J (1996) Gene Discourses: Law, Politics, Culture, Future, Journal of Technological Forecasting and Social Change (Vo. 52, No. 2-3, June-July), pp. 161-183.

Peterson, P (1999). Grey Dawn. New York, Random House.

www.ru.org – on the communicative inclusive society

www.futurefoundation.org – on the debate between the artificial and other scenarios

www.proutworld.org – on the more spiritual dimensions of social transformation

Notes on PROUT Policy on Intervention (2003)

Sohail Inayatullah

Prout supports intervention in sovereign nation states by a duly created world body. It rejects intervention by particular nation-states, even broad based coalitions. This is largely as the self-interests of nation-states (geo-political control, resource and ideology control) go against the self-interests of the planet.

Ideologically, Prout rejects the UN as such a world body, as the UN is foundations are based on inequitable world order. Moreover, eligibility into the UN is based on acquiring national status, thus leaving out social movements, cooperatives, and individuals.

Ideologically Prout rejects identity politics particularly religious politics, including the hindu variety ( eg, BJP genocide in Gujrat), of the Islamic variety (terrorism globally and in Kashmir) of the Christian Vatican (the feudal politics of the Vatican) and of the Jewish variety (Zionism).

However, to remove imbalances, Prout supports social movements that attempt to redress the exploitation of language (communities being brutalized for speaking their native tongue or being denied equal opportunity), religion (suppressing a people based on their religion), gender and other identities. However, these movements should not and cannot be allowed to become the new oppressors, that is, upon gaining state or other types of power, using their own language or religion or … as a political weapon. Prout sees all identity as historically and social constructed – the only “true” identity is spiritual.

Prout asserts that any long lasting to solution to current problems must be mutli-layered. This means:

1. the creation of economic democracy, focused on cooperatives
2. the creation of an expanded identity, moving away from nation, religion and ethnicity toward a politics of earth identity
3. an environmental ethic, seeing nature as a living resource for all and “herself.”
4. a gender ethics, focused on gender partnership

In the current war in Iraq, Prout rejects usa intervention. However, it supports the notion of intervention against states that consistently violate basics human and nature rights (eg, India in Gujrat, Pakistan in Kashmir, Israel/Palestine in each other, Iraq towards its citizens and Iran, Zimbabwe against its citizens, to begin with). While the best solution is local people removing dictators, when that is impossible, or when local leaders violate global law, world action is needed.

Given that no world government exists to engage in such intervention, in the short run, Prout favors the strengthening and broadening of the UN, including transforming the internationalism of the UN to a universalism.

In this sense Prout strongly favors a transformed globalization that creates planetary identities, strong economic democracies, free movement of labour – in effect a new type of glo-calism that moves humanity away from feudalism and nationalism and towards a planetary universalism.

Given that USA intervention is a reality, Prout seeks to provide humanitarian aid and seeks to be involved in the global debate on a post-war Iraq, ensuring that the future develops on Prout policy (economic democracy, gender partnership, ecological ethic, etc).

A Proutist View of the Futures of South Asia: Steps to a Confederation (2003)

By Sohail Inayatullah

While we are all aware why we do not have peace in south asia, there is a paucity of explorations on how to create a better future. The lack of peace defined as both individual peace (inner contentment), social-psychological peace (how we see the Other), structural peace (issues of justice, particularly territorial justice) and epistemological peace (toward a plurality of ways of knowing) are among the major factors contributing to poverty in south asia. Government expenditures in each nation, especially India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka go for military purposes and not for education or health. Every time a positive economic cycle begins, yet one more confrontation sends military expenditures higher. Few, except military leaders and a few corporations (mostly foreign), benefit from this escalation.

LACK OF VISIONS

Part of the reason for this vicious cycle of confrontation and poverty is because South Asia has been unable to move outside of colonial and partition (or liberation) categories. Conceptual travel outside of British influence is difficult and cultural, economic, military and psychological colonialism and categories of thought remain in south asian internal structures and representations of the self.

Intellectuals in south asia also do not help matters, in fact, we are often part of the problem. Focused on historical investigations and mired in feudal social relations, academic discourse, in general, and the future, in particular, has become fugitive and, when apprehended, made trivial. This is largely because of the style, content and structure of south asian intellectual/State relations. By and large administered by the civil service, appeasing the chief minister (as evidenced by the center stage of the minister at book launchings and public lectures) is far more important than independent intellectual inquiry. It is the State that gives academic discourse legitimacy, since it is the State that has captured civil society. The paucity of economic, social and political resources for the Academy exacerbates, if not causes, this situation.

NATION, STATE AND REAL POLITICS

Colonial history has produced an overarching paradigm that even the interpreters of the hadith and Vedanta must relinquish their authority to. This is the neo-realist model of International Relations and National Development. Caught in a battle of ego expansion, of self-interest, nations function like self-interested egoistic individuals. Economic development can only take place at the national level with communities absent from participation. Thus making peace at local levels impossible. Security is defined in terms of safety from the aggressor neighboring nation, not in terms of local access to water, technology and justice. Only real politics with hidden motives behind every actor and action makes sense in this neo-realist discourse. The task then for most is explaining the actions of a nation or of functionaries of the State. Envisioning other possibilities for “nation” or “state” and their interrelationships, that is, the assumptions that define what is considered eligible for academic discourse remains unattempted, thus the absence of communities, non-governmental organizations, class and other transnational categories such as gender from the realm of what is considered important.

Moreover, structural analysis such as center/periphery theory (a step beyond conspiracy theory) is intelligible but only with respect to the West not with respect to internal structures. Finally, visions of the future, attempts to recreate the paradigm of international relations, strategic studies and development theory through women studies, world system research, historical social change analysis, peace studies, participatory action research or the social movements are considered naive and too idealistic. Worse, it is believed that this naivete and idealism threatens security on the home front. Thus it is fine if class and gender are issues that challenge mainstream politics in the neighboring nation but not in “our perfect country.” What results thus is at best static peace – that is the diplomatic accomodation of official differences and not what Prout founder, P.R. Sarkar calls, sentient peace, or the creation of a mutual ecology of destiny based on shared moral principles.

However even with the dominance of real-politics, idealism does exist, but, in the quest for modernity it has been marginalized. Visions remain limited to evening prayer or meditation, for personal peace, but they have no place in politics or structural peace, except at the level of the State which uses religious practices to buttress its own power and control over competing classes, that is, it appropriates vision into its own strategic discourse.

Again, the dominance of neo-realism and the loss of mutual trust can be explained by many variables. The most important of them is the event of partition – the alleged break from colonialism -that has dominated intellectual efforts. With more than a generation of mistrust, hate and fear, creating alternative futures, not dominated by the partition discourse is indeed challenging. The disappointment of post-colonial society has worn heavy on the south asian psyche – betrayals by leaders and calls for more sacrifices from the people for yet another promised plan is unlikely to transform the weight of the past and the abyss of the present. The future that we have arrived at to is not the final destination for south asia, it is a dystopia. As Faiz has written , “The time for the liberation of heart and mind has not come yet. Continue your arduous journey. This is not your destination.”

POSSIBLE STRATEGIES

Given this history, what are some possible strategies outside of the partition and nation-state discourse. And how can Prout and associated organizations help in these strategies, in creating new visions and realities for South Asia.

The short run strategy for Prout and other social movements would be to attempt to encourage peaceful citizen to citizen meetings between Bangladeshis, Sri Lankans, Pakistanis and Indians. These types of associations are very much part of the project of Ananda Marga Universal Relief Team, which provides relief from suffering for all humans, animals and plants. Renaissance Universal Clubs and the organization of Renaissance Writers and Artists Association are other organizations whose mission is transnational. Their effort in creating links between intellectuals, writers and artists across national boundaries would be critical in such efforts. Unfortunately south asian intellectuals are often beholden to the bureaucracy. Rarely are they independent. Moreover, in general, intellectuals tend to adopt nationalistic lines seeing history only from a nationalistic perspective, thinking that the other nation’s history is propaganda and one’s own nation’s historiography is the real objective truth. This has worsened in recent times with the rise of the BJP in India and of rightist Islamic parties.

Intellectuals who have left the “homeland” for the West are not immune from this intellectual cancer. While south asians may unite in critique of the West, when it comes to the homefront, they remain attached to nation. Religion as well has increasingly become a weapon of identity, used not to create a higher level of consciousness but to distance from the other. In this sense, the neo-humanist mind and paradigm has yet to emerge. Instead, identity is based on geographical sentiments, national sentiments and religious sentiments.

The recent war in Afghanistan has further hardened identity, forcing individuals to be either, especially in Pakistan, strict muslims or western oriented. Layered identity, that is, we are primarily human beings, and secondary national citizens or members of a particular religion, is more difficult to achieve. Indeed, as Marcus Bussey (www.metafuture.org) has argued, neo-humanism should not be seen solely as a theory but as a practice. We must live day to day through neo-humanism, asking ourselves, how in our conversations, our views, our teaching of children do we recreate historical identities, or help create inclusive identities.

Nonetheless, it is imperative that we find ways to encourage citizen to citizen interaction through sports, arts, music and literature, to begin with. To do this, of course, there needs to be travel between the various south asian nations. However given the intervention of each nation in the Other: Pakistan in India; India in Sri Lanka; and given secession movements in each country, suspicion is natural and travel difficult. Normalization of borders when the nation-state is under threat appears unlikely especially as violence has become routine in local and national politics.

One way out of this is to begin to focus on ideal futures instead of dis-unifying pasts; that is, instead of asking who actually attacked who or should Kashmir be part of Pakistan or India or independent we need to practice compassion and forgiveness towards the other, to not see the gaining of territory as central to the national and personal ego. What is needed are meetings among artists, intellectuals, and even bureaucrats to stress areas and points of unity–sufis who are hindu; yogis who are sufi, for example. We need to remember stories of how difference has led to mutual benefit, to glorify how intimacy with the other can create sources of cultural vitality.

The usefulness in this citizen to citizen contact is that it will build amity among people who feel the other is distant, who fear the Other. While citizen to citizen contact did not markedly change US or Soviet policy towards each other, it did create peace forces in each nation, that created dissension when governments insisted on arguing that the other nation was the evil empire. Citizen to citizen contact ideally will develop into contact between non-governmental organizations that are committed to same ideals: serving the poor, empowering women, caring for the environment, for example.

The nuclear tests in Pakistan and India have led to numerous exchanges between Indians and Pakistanis, largely through the medium of the internet–a dynamic loose association called south asians against nukes has taken off. It intends to lobby governments in both countries to take steps to develop conversations of peace, of shared futures, as well as to set in place fail safe measures to avoid nuclear accidents and provocation by nationalists on all sides.

But most important is not specific issues but the hope that these NGOs may be able to strengthen civil society in each nation thus putting some pressure on politicians to choose more rational strategies, strategies that place humans and the environment ahead of geo-sentiments and geo-politics. Currently the politician who wants to negotiate with the leader of the other nation is forced to take hard-line aggressive policies (“we will never give up Kashmir or we will never give up nuclear power”) lest he or she lose power to the Opposition. By having a transnational peace, ecological, service movement pressuring each nation’ leaders they will have more room to negotiate and pursue policies that benefit the collective good and security of the region.

Of course, NGOs can as well distort local civil society, as they are financed by external sources. Trade associations, professional groups and other forms of community need as well to be activated along these neo-humanist lines.

While it would be ideal to reduce the likelihood of local leaders to pursue aggressive/nationalistic strategies most likely positive change, paradoxically enough, will come from the globalizing forces of privatization. Irrespective of how privatization harms labor and small business, it does create a wave of faith in the emerging bourgeois, who in their search for profits are transnational. The rational ceases to be the nation but the profit motivation. Profit motivation might begin the process of increased trade, and commercial contacts between the various nations of the south asian region. For Capital, mobility, the free flow of borders is the key to its expansion. Historical feuds only limit its accumulation. For south asia, unless there are increased economic ties then the capital that accumulates because of privatization will largely go to overseas destinations, Tokyo and New York.

Beginning the process of developing a south asian economic sphere, even it is created by those who have little concern for the environment and for social justice, in the long run will help create more peaceful futures for the region. At the level of the person, business men and women who have to make deals will have to face each other, will have to see that they have common interests. Moreover, they will not be branded as spies by opportunistic political leaders since business can always claim they are only working for national productivity. Of course, from a Proutist view, creating economic and cultural vitality through social/peoples’ movements, particularly the cooperative movement, or increasing the rights of labor throughout south asia is even more important – it is shudra viplava, not the rise of the bourgois that is crucial.

In the meantime, labor, unfortunately, has far less mobility than capital. Labor leaders who are transnational will certainly be branded as unpatriotic, in fact, in contrast to business leaders, labor leaders will be seen as spies who are attempting to stifle national growth. Arguing for local economic democracy by contesting the power of the federal bureaucracy and outside economic interests will also not beholden social movements to the power of government and capital. Indeed, decentralization will be misconstrued for secession, in some cases.

However, we can hope that at the regional level as the Other becomes less distant or because of the pressure of external forces, we can envision a time when national policy leaders meet to create a south asian confederation of sorts. To develop such a larger south asian trade association or confederation, there needs to be agreement or negotiation in the following areas.

AREAS OF NEGOTIATION

1. Water regime. The problems here are associated with the use of water for the short term instead of the long term, for the benefit of the few at the expense of the many. Should water become a joint resource then?

2. Human rights regime. The problems in reaching agreement in this area should be obvious since each will claim that the other violates human rights while it has a perfect record. Action from global human rights associations can help create pressure on local levels. Human rights will need to focus not just on individual rights but the following Sarkar, the right to purchasing capacity. The right to religion and language will also have to be central in any human rights regime. We must remember that the debate on human rights in Asia is about expanding the Western notion of liberal individual rights to include economic rights and collective rights. It is not about the restriction of rights but their augmentation.

3. Nuclear non-proliferation. This is problematic since India believes that it has to fear China as well as Pakistan. China sees itself as a global power and thus will not agree to any nuclear agreement, especially given the inequitable structure of the present global nuclear and arms regime. However, nuclear proliferation promises, as with the US-USSR case, to bankrupt first one nation and then the other – Pakistan is already on the verge of financial calamity. Given the lack of safety of nuclear installations, it might take a meltdown before some agreement is reached. Pakistan believes that it must have a dramatic deterrent since it believes most Indians have yet to truly accept partition, independence. Indeed, Indians generally see Pakistanis as double traitors, first for having converted from hinduism to Islam and second for having carved Pakistan from India.

4. UN peacekeeping forces in troubled areas. This step while impinging on national sovereignty could ease tensions throughout south asia. For one, it recognizes that there is a crisis that the leaders of each nation, particularly Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and India, have failed to resolve. Will we see blue helmets throughout south asia in the near future? However, peacekeeping should be not restricted to weaponed officers but rather should include community builders–therapists and healers. Recent breakthroughs in Sri Lanka have partly come about through intervention of mediators from Norway. This external peace building as been essential in moving Sri Lanka from its abyss.

5. Regional conferences at Cabinet level. While governments often obscure truth, more meetings might begin a thawing process and, unfortunately, if not properly structured, they might further reinscribe half-truths and vicious stereotypes of the Other. Still, meetings on specific points where there is a great chance of agreement are a great place to begin. Start slow, reach agreement, and build from there, would be a place to begin.

6. Regional conferences of ngos (environmental groups, feminist groups, peace movement, universal spiritual groups, artists, human rights activists). This is even more important as it helps build relationships among like-minded individuals who are tired of the symbolic efforts of their own governments, who crave a different south asia.

While all these steps begin the process, the long run strategy would be to encourage a rethinking of identity and an alternate economic and political structure.

LONG TERM STEPS

The long terms steps would be:

1. Denationalize self, economy and identity. This the larger project of delinking the idea of the nation, whether India or Pakistan, from our mental landscape and replacing it with more local–community–and global concepts, that of the planet itself.

2. Essentially this means a rewriting of textbooks in south asia. Moving away from the neo-realist real politics paradigm and toward the neo-humanist educational perspective. This means rewriting history as well rethinking the future.

3. Create Peoples’ movements centered on bioregions and linguistic and cultural zones, that is, begin the process of rethinking the boundaries of south asia along lines other than those that were hammered out by Indian political parties and the British in the early half of this century. This is Sarkar’s notion of samaj movements.

4. Encourage self-reliance and localism in each zone. While trade is central between nations and the economic zones, it should not be done at the expense of the local economy. This is not say that poor quality products should be encouraged, rather on non-essential items there should be competition. The State should not give preferential treatment to a few businesses at the expense of others.

5. Barter trade between zones is one way to stop inflation. In addition, it leads to a productive cycle between zones, especially helping poorer zones increase wealth. These will especially be useful given the upcoming world recession or depression.

6. Encourage universal dimensions of the many religions and cultures of the area. While this is much easier said than done, it means that individuals have a right to religious expression with the role of the State that of ensuring non-interference from local, national and regional leaders who desire to use religion and its strong emotive content to gain votes.

7. Develop legal structures that can ensure the respect of the rights of women, children, the aged and the environment. The latter is especially important given that environmental issues are transnational. Indeed, the disastrous climatic after effects of recent nuclear explosions show that the environment is a genuine global rights issue. Eventually, while this is a long way off, we need to consider the creation of an Asian International Court.

8. Transparency. Governmental decisions need to be open. Ideally meetings should be televised. Promises made by politicians need to become legal documents so that citizens groups can initiate litigation against corruption and mis-information. The same level of transparency should be expected for corporations as well as ngos.

What this means is that we need visions of the future of south asia that are not based on communal violence but are based on the possibility of dynamic peaceful coexistence – what P.R. Sarkar has called, prama. The task while seemingly impossible must begin with a few small steps, of Indians and Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Sri Lankans, Nepalese and Bhutanese and other historical groups in south asia finding ways to realize some unity amongst all our differences.

The challenge for the Proutist movement is to use its foundational analytic categories – the social cycle, neo-humanism, prama, maxi-mini wage structures, sentient peace (and not peace based on short term religious or nationalist goals, that is, static peace) to help understand south asia’s present predicament, and offer ways out. To do, Prout needs to ensure that it does not enter short term strategic partnerships with various governments but rather continues to work at creating a strong civil society, what Sarkar has called “uniting the moralists”. Prout must continue to oppose communism, liberalism as well as their metaphysical foundation, that of, neo-realism.

Future generations will remember that there was least one social movement that did not accede to narrow sentiments, that kept alive the idea of south asia as an historical civilization, and thus managed to transcend its Indian birth to become a true universal movement. Let us begin together to create a new history for future generations.

Certainly with the day-to-day violence through south asia, whether Gujrat or Kashmir, it is difficult to imagine a better future. But by staying within current identities and politics, we doom future generations to poverty. When will we choose otherwise?

Gender, Peace and Terrestrial Futures (2002)

Alternatives to Terrorism and War

Ivana Milojević*

The University of Queensland, Australia

The purpose of this article is to explore alternative discourses and alternative strategies to the present ‘war on terrorism’ as well as to terrorism itself. The article focuses on the question whether conflict resolutions based on military means are successful and argues that any answer inevitably relies on underlying worldview, vision of the future and the temporal (short-term/long-term) framework.

“In order to reduce evil, people may have to invent new social mechanisms and ethical systems” (Wendell Bell, 2000).

“It is remarkable that even the most warlike people can imagine gentle and peaceful ways of living” (Elise Boulding, 1998). 

 “Those for whom peace is no more than a dream are asleep to the future” (Jack DuVall, 2001).

Keywords: international relations, terrorism, world futures, patriarchy

*Direct correspondence to Ivana Milojevic, School of Education, The University of Queensland, Australia, E-mail: ivanam@mailbox.uq.edu.au

What is wrong with military conflict resolution?  

For the second time in two years, the military might of the USA has led a military campaign that appears to be working. Milosevic is at The Hague, the Taliban has retreated and leaders of the free world seem to be saying that dictators, totalitarian governments or global terrorist networks will no longer be tolerated. Does this mean that the majority of writings on peaceful conflict resolution have somehow become redundant? More specifically, is it possible to argue the relevance of usually long-term oriented efforts towards peaceful conflict resolution in a ‘reordering-and-compression-of-time’ era? What can they offer to feed the ‘hyper-reality’ that is created by a globalised media, given that the effects of these efforts are usually more subtle then dramatic? And most importantly, in our hybrid, relativistic and postmodern times, have we forever lost the argument of a peaceful conflict resolution’s ‘higher moral ground’?

While it is impossible to provide easy and comfortable answers to these difficult questions, it can be argued that they are somewhat focused on the wrong issues. That is, they cannot be tackled before understanding that whether military or peaceful conflict resolution is seen to ‘work’ is predominately a matter of conviction. Or, to put it in more scholarly terms, different understandings of origins of conflicts and how they are to be resolved is a matter of a perspective, paradigm and discourse as well as of a particular history and a worldview. As the debates in the rich field of International Relations demonstrate, at any point in time a diverse range of “alternative, overlapping and competing” (Burchill and Linklater, 1996:8) theoretical positions is on offer, all carrying with them a distinct approach and focus. For realists and neo-liberals, military involvement is successful as it produces concrete evidence of shifts in military and political power relations. For Marxists and critical theorists, war efforts are misplaced: we should be addressing structural inequalities and focus on waging a war against poverty. For pacifists, the gain achieved by military victory is only temporary. They object to violence because, as Gandhi so eloquently put it, even when it appears to do good, the good is only temporary and the evil it does is permanent.

Given that the current global hegemonic discourse is predominantly based on neo-liberal and rationalist theories, it is this worldview that helps form ‘common sense’ notions of ‘success’ and ‘failure’. However, as feminist authors in the field of International Relations such as V. Spike Peterson, Cynthia Enloe, Jan Jindy Pettman, Rebecca Grant, Kathleen Newland and others have shown, a different worldview suggests different solutions to conflicts between and among states. For example, if the impacts on environment and human relatedness are included in the analysis different understanding on whether military solutions work emerges. That is, if environment and human relatedness are protected and enhanced, the solution is successful. On the other hand, if they are damaged then it obviously is not.

The latest military action by the USA has been provoked by a violent and murderous attack which occurred on American soil. There is nothing wrong with people demanding perpetrators brought to justice. Except that those directly involved are already all dead. But it is also justifiable to attempt to bring to justice those that have either organized or in any other ways facilitated these horrible attacks; except that retaliation has brought other grievances and increased the overall death toll. We do not really know what motivated those men to fly airplanes into WTC buildings and Pentagon on September 11th. We can only guess. One possibility is that they sought to damage symbols of American economic and political power because of the damage this power does to others. Another guess is that they were waging some sort of holy war against the Christian West because of the damage it has done to Islam. Yet another guess is that their action was also facilitated by their desire to die as martyrs, achieving a one-way direct ticket to heaven. But what we do know with higher certainty is that they believed that higher goals justify the sacrifice of some human lives. We are also a bit clearer on what motivated the USA to conduct its military campaign in Afghanistan, because their representatives communicate to us through global media. What we are told is that Afghanistan has been bombed because its then government cooperated with and protected terrorists. And we are yet again reminded that sacrifice of some human lives is necessary.

While there are important and crucial differences between these two ‘players’ in the current conflict it seems that both establishments operate from a similar paradigm and a similar worldview. Both accept the category of ‘collateral damage’ when it comes to the lives of those seen and defined as the other. Both seem to worry more about strategic goals rather then the impacts their actions might have on the system as a whole. Both believe that violence is the only language ‘the other’ will understand and consequently promote violent and military solutions to the problem. Both promote violent hypermasculinities, either overtly or covertly, contributing towards the creation, maintenance and further enhancement of global culture of war. And, with their either total exclusion or tokenistic inclusion of women’s and/or feminist’s perspectives, both are deeply patriarchal.

There is no doubt that, at least at the level of litany and obvious, violence ‘works’. In that sense, despite all the efforts not to ‘give in’ to terrorism, terrorist actions do ‘work’. The terrorist action on September 11th produced not only very concrete results in terms of destruction it has created, it has also brought attention to all range of problems – from structural inequalities to American involvement in the Middle East. But terrorist actions were ‘successful’ in other ways too. In fact, one of the strongest impacts terrorist actions have brought with them is their counter-productivity. Destruction of symbols of American (or Western?) economic and political power further hurt the most vulnerable. Those that were on the receiving end of structural violence prior to the attack have suffered even more as a result of it. The exacerbated recession, the redirection of resources towards military and the redirection of aid for victims of retaliatory military campaign have all further hurt those in whose name the terrorist actions were possibly taken. If men who hijacked and crashed the planes thought they were helping Islam, again they could not be more wrong. Governments throughout Islamic world have not been overthrown and replaced by the alleged ‘true’ version of Islamic governance. On the other hand, Muslims were killed not only in the direct attack on WTC but also in its aftermath, e.g. during demonstrations in Pakistan. A Muslim nation, Afghanistan, has suffered immensely. Muslims living in predominately non-Muslim states have also suffered from increased racism and racial hatred. Some have even been killed. How then did the terrorist attack address current world imbalances or challenging existing power hierarchies? The similar question can be asked in relation to American retaliation. That is, how are piece-meal strategies, such as direct military involvement in Afghanistan going to produce real changes, addressing the root causes of terrorism? How is the extensive use of force and demonization of ‘the other’ – the enemy, not going to confirm what the USA is already accused of?   How are ultimatums and strategic alliances based on exercising the existing worldwide power going to help support equitable diplomacy and true international cooperation?

It is of course too early to say what the aftermath of military involvement in Afghanistan might be. But some are already guessing, for example, that further militarisation will negatively impact education, health, quality of child-care, increased authoritarianism and decreased liberties in American society itself. If this is the case, and most likely it is, there is very little doubt that similar developments will occur in other parts of the world. But although there is enough evidence to support these guesses, others argue that military actions are (unfortunately or not so unfortunately) necessary to protect American (and world) citizens in the future. That is, lives of some need to be sacrificed now, to protect the lives of many tomorrow. One problem with this is the incredible hypocrisy when it comes to the issue of whose lives are to be sacrificed. American interventions (e.g. Yugoslavia, Afghanistan) are done in such a way that it is very clear who is the actor dictating solutions to others, asking someone else’s lives to be sacrificed (KLA, Northern Alliance, civilians in Yugoslavia and Afghanistan). The ecological damage is never discussed, not only because of the worldview that guides military interventions, but also because it is ‘less important’ people that will cope the consequences. Although the Taliban and Serbian militia were already brutal, their brutality reached new levels once the pounding from the skies started. Those that get the privilege of ‘saving the lives of many’ by their own deaths, so called ‘collateral damage’ – of course never ask to be ‘sacrificed’ nor are they ever given the choice to safely avoid damage to their own bodies, families, localities. Most could neither escape to neighboring countries nor would they, except for the very few, be given visas to countries such as USA, UK or Australia. From the perspective of those that are brutalized, killed or that have seen members of their families and communities brutalized and killed it is hypocritical to talk about their ‘sacrifice’ as something that ‘saves’ other peoples lives. Rather, it represents the murder, and, as is the case with most murders, it is not only ‘regrettable’ but also committed in vain. And, as Arundhati Roy (20001) passionately argues, it should never be set of against any other list of killed innocents but rather added to that existing list, the list of all people tortured, brutalized, killed.

Murders rarely account for much good and violent actions usually come to haunt people that themselves participated or initiated them. Of course, we cannot know for sure whether the military campaign in Afghanistan is really going to protect USA or other western countries. That is, while it may help ward of some terrorist attacks in the immediate future, it is simultaneously promoting and creating the violent world, in which hardly anyone is safe and secure. But what we do know, because it comes from the past, is that previous American involvement in Afghanistan, the support of fundamentalist Taliban during Soviet invasion, did eventually backfire to the USA themselves. Strategic alliances, support of violent militias and sub-cultures of violence, selling of arms, and so on, may bring some desired outcomes but the price paid in the future may turn out to be much higher. So it seems more logical to argue that the promotion of violence, more often then not, brings with it long-term negative consequences, cycles of retribution, revenge and hate. Even if it does not backfire directly to perpetrators, the energy of internalized terror usually eventually materializes somewhere – one should only look at examples such as Israel/Palestine, former-Yugoslavia or even South Africa, with its current massive crime problem.

Competing futures, global patriarchy and future scenarios

Actions taken on the September 11th and in the aftermath have also been informed by particular futures images. These images can sometimes be so strong as to override the basic human impulse for self-preservation, as was the case with suicide plane hijackers.  Other powerful imaging included evoking of particular histories, as realistic directions for the future. Examples include Bush’s revoking of Crusades or Wild West, or the Taliban’s revoking of idealized early Islamic societies. But the influence of a particular image of the future is the strongest when it is normalized and naturalized as inevitable. For example, as Francis Fukuyama’s (1992) work testifies, the liberal belief that the main obstacles in the quest towards a peaceful global order are rogue states is partly based on the belief in the inevitability of a particular evolutionary pattern. This common evolutionary pattern for all human society is apparently in the direction of liberal democracy (Fukuyama, 1992; Burchill and Linklater, 1996:28). Such a desired future, that of universally spread liberal capitalism and democratic nation states, incorporates a belief in the “Western forms of government, political economy and political community …[as] .. the ultimate destination which the entire human race will eventually reach” (Burchill and Linklater, 1996:28). The inevitability of such a future is not only accepted within neo-liberal and rationalist discourses but has now become almost ubiquitous. Not surprisingly, the attack on America was quickly renamed to be an attack on civilization. The important distinction between developed states and civilized peoples on one hand, and the rogue states and fundamentalist barbarians on the other, was swiftly made. This shift became incredibly important for justifying not only bombing of Afghanistan but also all previous military campaigns by the USA, including the bombing of Iraq and NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. As Jan Oberg (2001) from Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future Research argues, this important distinction includes the following:

When democracies fight wars and make interventions they know how to legitimate it with reference to highly civilized norms such as peace, human rights, minority protection, democracy or freedom – and they do it as a sacrifice, not out of fear. In contrast, “the others” start wars for lower motives such as money, territory, power, drugs, personal gain, because they have less education, less civil society, less democracy and are intolerant, lack humanity or are downright evil.

In addition, the created military-solution-oriented post September 11th discourse has also become one more example of the dominance of “malestream” patriarchal perspective especially when it comes to conflict analysis and resolution. The masculinist bias could easily be found in predominantly masculinist rhetoric, patriarchal logic and the general invisibility of women. While women have consistently been either invisible or only present as objects of the inquiry (e.g. victimhood of Afghani women), on the other hand, men have been both real and symbolical subjects – movers and shakers of our history and our present. From terrorists to political, military and religious leaders, to heroic fire fighters and rescue workers – the life taker, the decision-maker, the hero, the powerful one has almost always been a man. But most importantly, the patriarchal worldview has the strongest grip on definitional power. For example, the patriarchal discourse has been present in the focus on abstract categories, such as ‘nations’, ‘free-world’, ‘fundamentalists’, etc. It has also been present in the “predominance of strategic discourse of national interest and national security … and inductive reasoning [that has] … effectively removed people as agents embedded in social and historical contexts…” (True, 1996:210). Binary thinking, considered by many feminists to be one of the main characteristics of patriarchal reasoning has also roamed wild. Examples include ‘free-world vs. totalitarian states’ and ‘either with us or against us’ choices on offer. In fact, as feminist authors in the area of international relations have shown, all the key concepts central to how states and the international system currently operate, such as power, sovereignty, security and rationality (True, 1996:225-236) embody a patriarchal worldview. The main problem with this is that the existence of hegemonic patriarchal discourse that cuts through all these categories seriously limits spaces for the emergence of alternative strategies. That is, it can be equally embodied in neo-liberal, rationalist discourses or within the worldview of ‘the terrorists’ but also sometimes even in so called ‘progressive’ and ‘leftist’ approached. For example, the patriarchal worldview is embodied in Marxist understandings of historical change and view that the violence is somehow the ‘midwife’ of history. It may come as no surprise then that Marxists and neo-Marxists are often sympathetic towards ‘liberation’ movements that too often incorporate violent strategies into their modus operandi. Of course, Marx’s famous statement that the ‘violence is the midwife of every old society pregnant with a new one’ is one of the better examples of misusing women’s experiences and interpreting them from within a patriarchal worldview.

Contrary to Marx’s metaphor, pregnancy and midwifery theorized from a perspective of female embodiment have instead been associated with peace, caring and love as, for example, among so called ‘maternal feminists’ or ‘maternal peace theorists’. The patriarchal discourse is also dangerous because it erases real people from the picture and replaces them with impersonal actors, such as ‘Americans’ and ‘Afghanis’ for example. These abstract categories are then constituted not only to be the other to us, but also to be simultaneously somehow ‘less’ and a serious ‘threat’.  The deaths of concrete people become either glorified if they are part of ‘us’ (‘our heroes’) or considered to be ‘collateral damage’ if they are part of ‘them’. The anthropocentric character of patriarchal discourse, on the other hand, assures that environmental aspects are never considered and completely erased from the overall project.

But seeing only ‘rogue states’ as a worry seems to be a seriously one-sided approach. Instead, we should ask the question of who has the highest capacity for violence. Surely biological weapons are a huge hazard. But who has accumulated the biggest stockpiles? While concerns were expressed after Soviet Union collapse, in terms of its possession of nuclear weapons, these concerns should be expanded to include other states as well. Possession of nuclear weapons is always a worry but who has actually used them so far, killing thousands of civilians, including children and babies? Similarly, was it ‘developed’ or ‘rogue’ states that have developed their arsenals by exploding nuclear weapons half a way across the globe? Was it rogue states that have been instrumental in creating many horrific and deadly consequences among ‘less important’ people living on the islands of the Pacific, or the ones that pride themselves by their unique and highly ‘developed’ ‘culture’ and ‘civilization’?

So if Western civilization is in general promoted as the evolutionary improvement for others, why shouldn’t others also follow the western pattern of militarisation, development of chemical and biological weapons, or nuclear experimentation? Unfortunately both the sheer magnitude of acquired weaponry as well as ideological willingness to use it by so-called developed states makes them equally if not more dangerous. Just one look at the military involvement after WWII of current ‘only-remaining-super-power’, the ‘leading-democracy-in-the-word-today’ is shocking. As Roy (2001) and Galtung (2001) remind us this is the list of countries that USA has been at war with and/or bombed since 1945: China (1945-46, 1950-1953), Korea (1950-1953), Guatemala (1954, 1960, 1967-1969), Indonesia (1958), Cuba (1959-1961), the Belgian Congo (1964), Peru (1965), Laos (1964-73), Vietnam (1961-1973), Cambodia (1969-1970), Grenada (1983), Lebanon-Syria (1983-84), Libya (1986), El Salvador (1980s), Nicaragua (1980s), Iran (1987), Panama (1989), Iraq (1991-), Kuwait (1991), Somalia (1993), Bosnia (1995), Sudan (1998), Yugoslavia (1999), Afghanistan (2001). Galtung (2001) also recalls William Blum’s Rogue State: A Guide to the World’s Only Superpower which describes in detail “Global Interventions from 1945” and gives list of 67 such interventions. The list includes non-military interventions and much indirect, US supported violence. These include assassinations, attempted or successful, of leaders including heads of state (tried in 35 cases), assistance in torture (in 11 countries), and interference with a democratic election processes (a list of 23 countries). Galtung (2001) then concludes that US interventions from 1945 account for 35 (assassinations) + 11 (torture) + 25 (bombings) + 67 (global interventions) + 23 (perverting elections) equaling for total of 161 cases of political violence.

While the USA represents only 5 per cent of the worlds population it spends 280 billion dollars per year on its military operation (well over five times the amount now spent by Russia, the second highest single-country spender) (Sivard, 1996: 21, 40). USA also sustains the largest number of foreign military bases. It continues to be the largest military spender in the world, accounting for 41 percent of global defense outlays in 1995 (Sivard, 1996:40). In addition, since the Persian Gulf war, the USA has become the world’s top arms exporter, well exceeding “the total arms exports of all 52 other exporting countries combined” (Sivard, 1996:41).

  Directing everyone else’s futures towards this particular model of statesmanship is neither feasible nor desirable. Neo-liberal and capitalist patriarchy project for the future, guided by the hegemonic imperialism of the USA government, is therefore unsustainable and dangerous. Therefore, different, including non-patriarchal futures need to be imagined and developed.

But so far that has not been the case with two most obvious scenarios for the immediate, post-terror future. As Inayatullah (2001) argued in the aftermath of September 11th, these are ‘Fortress USA/OECD’ and ‘Cowboy War – Vengeance Forever’.  In the Fortress scenario, OECD nations close the gates to outsiders, focus on national security concerns, and employ increased surveillance technologies. The nationalist discourse is secured. The Islamic world strengthens its feudal structure, becoming even more mullahist. In the “Cowboy War – Vengeance Forever” attacks and counter attacks begin the slow but inexorable drift to fascism – the clash of civilizations becomes a truism. Both these scenarios epitomize patriarchy by depending on dominator narrative and by excluding women’s perspectives and ways of knowing. Both depend on strong military, on domination, force and strong masculinist engagement. The fortress scenario as a desired future cannot succeed if you – the leaders of the state and citizens – develop any sign of ‘weakness’ or empathy towards the other. It depends on othering, on categorizing people into us and them. The long-term success of fortress scenario will largely depend on the magnitude of pressures from outside rather then measures taken from inside. Unfortunately to those that do not believe in ‘sharing’, the future might became more and more problematic. As Udayakumar writes, in the future where “two-thirds are poor and deprived of basics and promise, there will not be any peace and security” (Udayakumar, 1995: 47). According to him, the safety of the rich (and poor in rich countries) relies on justice for the (world’s) poor as much as the well-being of the poor demands on the cooperation of the rich (Udayakumar, 1995: 347).

Vengeance Forever is also a scenario that will not help global security much. The stability created by (im)balance of power will only be temporary, until the next challenge. This scenario depends on the further militarisation of all, including ‘developed’ societies. In turn, militarisation has always brought disastrous consequences for women. The Vengeance Forever scenario will see the spill over of general anxieties which will result in an increase of violence against women, children, nature. The brutalizing effects of war and militarisation on women (and men) have been well documented.

If the “Vengeance Forever” scenario materializes, women will increasingly be seen as birthing machines, a permanent reserve labor force, menders of men’s physical and psychological wounds, and so on. Militaristic and war-oriented societies usually see women mostly in terms of ability to give birth to future warriors, or in terms of support they provide at the ‘home front’. Both the Fortress and Vengeance Forever scenario represent the extension of Global Patriarchy, further enforcing rather than challenging its dominator elements.  The enforcement of the Global Patriarchy scenario is problematic because it will help put women’s liberation on permanent hold, as there will always be more important causes to work towards. It will also put women’s priorities at the furthest end and place stress to the maximum on education, health-care, parenting and family life in general. As these priorities are also important not only to women but also to everybody, Global Patriarchy scenario will therefore help further deteriorate rather then improve living conditions for most people.

Terrestrial Futures  

The alternatives to previously described dominating futures images are far stretched but it is precisely their long-term orientation that gives them legitimacy. A globalized world is increasingly making short-term solutions problematic. Short-term solutions are, of course, necessary, and day-to-day actions are the only ones that in fact could be taken. But hourly and daily actions have to be informed by what are their most likely consequences, tomorrow and the year after. The likely consequences of violence and wars are well documented and they rarely bring much good. This is why the belief that there is only one choice to be made: between violence and non-violence, is inaccurate. In fact, violence should be seen as no choice at all, and various non-violent approaches debated and considered. That means that various non-violent strategies for creation of world security are necessary, not just one. While a case can be made for the legitimate use of force by some international security/police force, this can only be done in a context where such force is truly international rather then simply serving the needs of the strongest and most powerful. Resorting to physical force as a defense strategy should also, of course, be the very last option. But the problem with this is that once it is accepted that violence is justified in “some cases” and “only as a last resort” it almost always gets stretched to include “most cases” and inevitably becomes either a first or a second resort! Therefore, violence should not be considered to be an option, but rather, implemented extremely rarely, and only in a situation when it certainly prevents a concrete act of direct violence that is evidently about to be committed. As Johan Galtung (2001) argues, “the choice of discourse matters”. This is because:  

Discourse and the course of action influence each other, the discourse serving as action directive, and as rationalization of the actions taken. (Galtung, 2001)  

The particular vision for the future also matters, because of its power to influence actions taken today.  

Vision  

The alternative image of the future that I evoke here is that of an independent and sustainable but yet interconnected, interdependent and interrelated world (e.g. Boulding). Ideas of the planet as a single place can be traced back many centuries (Scholte, 2000:62) but have especially increased in popularity over the last several decades. The focus here is on centrality of human relatedness, complex interrelations within a society that are all further fundamentally embedded in ecological relationships. The image of ecologically and economically sustainable future also compels us to take seriously the interests of the non-human community and future generations of people and other living beings.

According to Reardon (1993:149) conceptions of global security and of a world at peace should incorporate four basic visions:

(1) “The birthright vision” images a world in which the basic human needs of the Earth’s people are met; (2) “the vision of women as equal partners” centers on the full equality of women and men in the public and the private spheres; (3) “the transcendence of violence vision” projects a world free of war and the physical abuse of women; and (4)  “the vision of an ecological community” perceives a world built on common interests and sharing, and respect and care for planet Earth.

It is not only a different vision for the future but also a different view of time that needs to underline alternative strategies. By expanding our sense of time and history, argues Boulding (1990), we can develop a better understanding of where we are now and where we should be going. This expansion means thinking about ‘now’ in terms of ‘200 years present’, present that is not only defined as a fleeting moment but that rather incorporates five generations before and after us. Many INGO’s (International Nongovernmental Organizations) already incorporated such expanded sense of time and history, continues Boulding (1990). Because of their transnational identities they are “able to hold the world public interest above national interest in ways that neither the nation-states nor even the UN itself can do” (Boulding, 1990:53). Not surprisingly, INGOs operate with longer-term horizons than nation states which influences “a better historical memory for issues …substantial expertise on pressing global problems … and provide opportunities for action as an antidote to despair” (Boulding, 1990:53-54). Globalized, interconnected and ecologically unified world can no longer afford ad-hoc strategies based on individual interests of nation states.

What is required most of all is careful balancing of national, regional and religious identities with terrestrial one. In more concrete terms, building of terrestrial futures includes the work on Global Ethics, Earth Charter, global governance and strengthening of local communities, creating not only Gaia of civilizations but also a Gaia of balanced localities in interconnected and interrelated world (Boulding, 1990). The “Terrestrial future” scenario is impossible without some sort of economic justice, Hazel Henderson’s ‘win-win world’, and the existence of multiple economies versus one dominant such as in global capitalism. The definition of progress as movement towards open-market democracies presents the attempt of universalizing the particular historical experience and imposing it onto the others. Current, male-dominated formal economy is based on both the exploitation of women’s productive and reproductive labor as well as on degradation of the planet (Hazel Henderson, 1991). Economic globalization is forcing societies to universally adopt a system which is basically unsustainable as well as based on global injustices. Ideologies that promote economic globalization also present the example of binary thinking in terms of open-market democracies equation with progress and everything else with either stagnation or regress. But in a highly diverse world multiple strategies towards variously defined and seen ‘progress’ and ‘development’ are much more realistic. Alternatives to consumerism and global ‘Casino’ capitalism are already currently developed everywhere, from individual actions to local self-sustaining communities, to global ‘fair-trade’ movements. These should be further encouraged and supported, especially when they focus on more sustainable and life oriented economic practices. Economical rationales have so far significantly supported militarisation and direct state as well as structural violence. It is about the time that economical rationales start exclusively supporting peace, justice, security and life.

The Terrestrial futures scenario also requires gender justice and balance, as in Boulding’s gentle, androgynous society or Eisler’s partnership society/gylany. Boulding’s (1977:230) ‘gentle society’ demands dialogic teaching-learning process between women and men that will enhance the human potentials of both. This is to be achieved by:

…institutionalizing opportunities for the education, training, and participation of women in every sector of society at every level of decision-making in every dimension of human activity, and extending to men the procreation-oriented education we now direct exclusively to women. (Boulding, 1977:230)

For Eisler (1987, 1996, 2001), in this nuclear/electronic/biochemical age, transformation towards a partnership society is absolutely crucial for the survival of our species. Eisler (2001) convincingly argues that the real challenge in front of us is not in terms of old categories such as left versus right or communism versus capitalism but between partnership and dominator alternatives for human relations. Which means that the real dilemma is not whether we should give our allegiance to the “American way of life” or to those that are currently disadvantaged by the system. The real dilemma is how to address dominator elements in all our societies, communities and within ourselves. It is therefore not Islam and Christianity (nor ‘the West’) that are the enemy per se, but dominator elements within both. Elise Boulding (1998) further supports such perspective by maintaining that:

Each society contains in itself resources that can help to shift the balance from a preoccupation with violence toward peaceful problem-solving behavior. These include a perennial, utopian longing for peace, both secular and faith-based peace movements, environmental and alternative-development movements, and women’s culture.

This implies that ‘the blame’ for each and every conflict is not necessarily and automatically projected and allocated onto the other. The main action to be taken is towards reduction of violence whenever it takes place, whether in our own societies, our own families or in our minds (desire for retaliation and revenge). When it comes to societies that are in some ways ‘foreign’ to us or we are ‘foreign’ to them, the main strategy should be the offer of support for peace-building, peace-making and peacekeeping strategies. The most important point here is that such support should not be provided in terms of external expertise but by utilizing and supporting local initiatives. The main impetus for a support is both in pure altruism and idealism but also in pragmatism and the realization that expending localized peace initiatives is the necessary step towards achieving ‘one planetary zone of peace’ (Boulding, 1998).

The move toward terrestrial futures is also the move towards better recognition of the demands of local communities. No sustainable global society, information or otherwise, can exist without economic and gender justice. Until we move towards the futures in which women’s strength in their local environments are followed by the strength of local environments themselves as equal partners within the regional and world system, feminine energies will continue to be suppressed and the symbols/parts of world and other centralized systems attacked. Another important requirement is the respect for all our differences. As long as the needs for cultural identity and desire for autonomy are not respected, minorities will be threatened by any global vision that is exclusionary. In turn, they will resist by creating essentialist, primordial identities that are also exclusive, and maintain a picture of a polarized world that is too simplistic. As long as the global vision of the future  remain exclusive of our many differences and represent the desired of dominant social groups as the only way forward, the marginal groups will continue to resist. They will resist any attempts to unify into the One as long as the One refuses to embraces the Other by loving Many. As Seyla Benhabib (1992) argues, we need to move towards a more concrete and actualized version of universalism, that proceeds more from the ground up, and:

…does not deny our embodied and embedded identity, but aims at developing moral attitudes and encouraging political transformations that can yield a point of view acceptable to all. Universality is not the ideal consensus of fictitiously defined selves, but the concrete process in politics and morals of the struggle of concrete, embodied selves….

This “interactive universalism” is significantly different to “substitutionalist” universalism of which liberalism provides one good example. While the starting point for substitutionalist universalism is expansion of a particular body of rights that has, in fact, been historically enjoyed by only a privileged minority, the starting point for an interactive universalism is in a concrete recognition of our differences (Moynagh, 1997). Interactive universalism therefore bases its moral claims not on some abstract categories but on a commonality among all, while simultaneously acknowledging unique situations of diverse social groups (Moynagh, 1997). One such commonality is the existence of a ‘holy peace culture’ (Boulding, 1998) and secular peace movements among most, if not all, historical and present societies. Peace culture rather then ‘holy war culture’ and ‘warism’[i], is the place where ‘creative balance among bonding, community closeness, and the need for separate spaces’ is maintained (Boulding, 1998).

Some desired events could be understood as both the future vision and a list of measures/strategies needed to achieve a world at peace. This is the case with desiring a world without weapons, general disarmament, expansion of nuclear-free zones, prohibiting the making and use of nuclear and biological weapons and destruction of all existing stocks, stopping of nuclear tests and setting up of international control for all these measures (Reardon, 1993; Brock-Utne, 1985; Boulding, 1990). Or, the prevention of arms-trade, non-cooperation with existing military security order, replacement of national armed forces with nonviolent civilian defense forces trained in passive resistance and the defense, general reduction of national armed forces and their replacement by mediation forces and United Nations standing peacekeeping (Boulding, 1990).  

Strategies

Practical interventions and strategies are predominately needed in four main areas: definitional/ conceptual, social/ cultural and economic.

Conceptual and theoretical strategies work on redefining the way the events are understood and explained. Recalling divisions, creating abstract categories of ‘enemies’, and then embodying them in a particular group or person are problematized. This is because such conceptualizing does not enhance communication but only creates circles of revenge and retaliation. Rather, the main focus ought to be on understanding exactly ‘who’ and exactly ‘why’ did such horrific acts of violence. The analysis of the technicalities of the attack would be equally important but not the only discourse used. There would be refusal to categorize some people as quintessentially evil, although there would be a demand that they answer about their evil actions and behaviors. If terrorism is basically about ‘lawlessness’, arbitrary use of military might needs to be prevented, because it only confirms that ‘the might is right’ and that ‘violence is the only language that they understand’. The focus should rather be on bringing those responsible for criminal actions to the International Justice Court, which would have its quarters in several locations in various world regions. Civilizational and cultural differences would not have equally strong ground in discounting courts and justice processes themselves if they were seen as fair and balanced. Certainly, Islamic countries are not incapable of enforcing ‘the rule of law’. In circumstances where atrocity is allegedly made ‘in the name of Islam’ it should be Islamic cultures and societies that could most successfully address fundamentalists ‘cultures of war’ that steam from their own tradition as well as be more successful in bringing the perpetrators to justice. International Courts based in various regions of the world would enhance ‘holy peace’ culture from within which would be seen as less threatening for the people of the region. Fundamentalists doctrines would therefore loose some of their raison’s d’être, some of the appeal that streams from addressing genuine inequalities and grievances.  

The conceptual shift would also include refocusing from power-over in the direction of power-for, power-to, power-with, power-within and power-toward. This means a shift from coercive power to the approach that focuses on empowerment, on enabling power to create positive change. It also means questioning both the validity but also the efficacy of power-over as ‘the mechanism for organizing world politics or solving world problems’ (Peterson and Runyan, 1999:216). This redefinition is crucial because, as Peterson and Runyan (1999:216) explain:  

If this model is used, world order looks less like a pyramid, where few are on the top and many are on the bottom, and more like a rotating circle in which no one is always at the top and no one is always at the bottom. Instead, all participate in complex webs of interdependence. Interests, rather than being defined in opposition to each other, are developed through relationships with others. Conflicts are resolved not by force or its threat but in nonviolent interaction and mutual learning. 

Another conceptual shift is from ‘reactive to relational autonomy’. When players in the world politics are seen in terms of ‘reactive autonomy’ (values independence and order, promotes separateness and independence that is a reaction against others, assumes that cooperative relations are virtually impossible without coercion) expectations of hostile and competitive behavior are reproduced. (Peterson and Runyan, 1999). This in turn generates uncooperative and defensive responses. On the other hand, relational autonomy values interdependence and justice, basing identity within the context of relationships rather than in opposition to them. It also assumes that cooperation typifies human relations when they are relatively equal and that cooperation is destroyed in the presence of inequality and coercion (Hirschmann, 1989, Sylvester, 1993, Peterson and Runyan, 1999). Seeing the world in terms of its interconnectedness implies a commitment towards equality, as an obligation. So far, the commitment to international conventions and institutions has been on voluntary basis only and too often seen as some sort of ‘harassment’ to individualized and individualistic sovereign states. Terrorists, for their part, also obviously define power as power-over that is based on reactive autonomy, with the main goal of reaching the top of the pyramid rather then questioning the structure that reproduces such hierarchies.

Underlining views on reactive vs. relational autonomy are different understandings of conflicts and consequently how are conflicts to be resolved. For example, conflicts are usually presented in terms of human nature seen in negative terms (competition, capacity for aggression and violence). According to Eisler (2000) such a presentation streams from the dominator cultural paradigm, which represents only part of the picture of what it means to be human. Both the capacity for violence and capacity for peace are evolutionary features of human ‘nature’. The dominator discourse represents only negative aspects of human nature as ‘realistic’, forgetting about equally valid positive human characteristics such as capacity for sharing, altruism, non-violence, peaceful conflict resolution, cooperation, caring, negotiation and communication. (Eisler, 2000). More gender-balanced narratives on evolution and history provide examples of not only warfare but also of long periods of peace (Eisler, 2000, Boulding, 1990).

Other fundamental concepts, such as sovereignty and strength are also defined differently if we step away from dominant worldview. For example, an ecological perspective sees the sovereignty of the Earth as preceding and still superceding human sovereignties (Patricia Mische, 1989). This means that the sovereignty to nation states needs to be balanced with subnational and supranational entities – both with lived local communities and the world as a whole. The nation-state is then simultaneously ‘too big and too small’ to effectively co-ordinate effective responses that would address direct and structural violence. But in other ways it is also ‘just right’ because actions are necessary at all and the every level of human organization. The redefinition of what constitutes strength prevents current seesaw of one-sided ultimatums and shortsighted stubbornness as a response. Because, to be willing to negotiate with the opponents would not be seen as the sight of weakness but rather as that of strength. This would also be the case with attempts to reconcile, continuously communicate, provide concessions, cooperate and accept mediation. Unfortunately, current diplomacy is based predominantly on the strength of weapons which dictates terms of engagement, priorities and issues rather then on true desire to resolve grievances to common satisfaction of all stakeholders and parties involved.

Of course, when security is understood in terms of both direct violence, such as war, as well as the structural violence, it is believed that actions need to be taken not only in the realm of the ‘political’ but also in the realm of social and economical. As authors such as Jan Jindy Pettman (1996) have shown security from women’s perspective is more likely to be defined as security of employment, education, health and security from domestic violence rather then in terms of a protection from an external threat to a nation-state. Therefore, global security is also to be defined differently. It is only logical that this means neither acquiring huge arsenals of weapons of mass-destruction nor their frequent use. But the hegemony of patriarchal discourse assures that these alternative readings are rarely taken seriously.  

Social and economic strategies require radical transformation and restructuring of societies and economies. This means working towards the objectives of equality, development and peace by improving employment, health and education (The Beijing Platform for Action, The Fourth World Conference on Women, Beijing, in Peterson, Runyan, 1999:218). Approximately 3,000 deaths from terrorist attack on Unites States are 3,000 deaths too many. But so are estimated 24,000 deaths of people who died of hunger on the same day, 6,000 children killed by diarrhea and 2,700 children killed by measles on the 11 September 2001 (New Internationalist, 2001:18-19). If we become aware that the number of malnourished children in developing countries is about 149 million, the number of women who die each year of pregnancy and childbirth about 500,000 and number of illiterate adults 875 million it is clear that where priorities should be. Preventing terrorism by policing is crucial but so is ‘the holy war’ against injustice, structural and cultural violence, poverty. These problems are, as is terrorism, global problems. The understanding of ‘security’ predominately in terms of national security or the security of the state is becoming obsolete by the day. Although the USA did not in any way ‘deserve’ the attacks that occurred on the 11th September, we should still become aware that all violence (in the international, national or family realms) is interconnected (Tickner, 1993:58). Which means that there is an intimate connection between both direct, structural and cultural violence, as well as domestic and international violence. Thus, any serious attempt to end war must involve significant alterations in local, national, and global hierarchies (Peterson and Runyan, 1999:228). This includes addressing sexism, racism, classism, heterosexism, and gendered nationalism which have all been vital to sustaining militarism and the ‘us’ and ‘them’ mentality that goes along with it (Peterson and Runyan, 1999:228),

One of the most important strategy, connected to socio-economic trasformations is  demilitarization. Availability of weapons may not be sufficient factor for war and terrorism but certainly it is necessary. Particular cultural cognitive maps determine how are technologies to be used. Still, the general production, availability and the trade of weapons directly support various wars as well as terrorism. Unfortunately, the direction taken after 11th September has been further militarisation, because the new ‘reasons’ for further militarisation have been activated. The logical response should instead had been redirection of resources from the military towards civilian needs and requirements. This would include a redirection of resources towards development of international courts system, towards initiatives that work on inter-cultural understandings, communication and alliances. The overall problem of course is that the patriarchal worldview determines that life-taking activities are better funded than life-giving ones. For example, worldwide, over half the nations of the world still provide higher budgets for the military than for their countries’ health needs. In the USA alone, the Pentagon received $17 billion more than it requested in both 1996 and 1997 (“The Ohio story”, quoted in Peterson and Runyan, 1999:125). The awaited ‘peace dividend’ after the end of the cold war has not materialized because 6 years later the Pentagon in the USA still receives 5 times what is spend on education, housing, job training and the environment combined  (“The Ohio Story”, in Peterson and Runyan, 1999:120).  

Demands for de-militarisation are underlined by the more acute awareness that peace is not a state but a process. The focus is on peace-building, peace-making and peace-keeping, contesting the belief that peace is “a kind of condition or state which is achieved or simply occurs” (Boudling, 1990:141). Or as something that happens only after the military intervention is over. The awareness that “peace never exists as a condition, only as a process” (Boulding, 1990:146) means that military involvement – or ‘doing war’ – is seen as directly opposite from ‘doing peace’, that is, from various peace-making activities. The patriarchal worldview implies that waging wars is sometimes necessary to maintain the peace. Alternative perspectives to this worldview imply that peace cannot be defined only as the absence of war and that both direct and structural forms of violence need to be addressed. Therefore, peace does not merely depends on the absence of war, but rather on constant efforts to achieve equality of rights, equal participation in decision making processes and equal participation in distribution of the resources that sustain society (Borelli in Brock-Utne, 1989:2). In that sense, peace either happens now, as well as yesterday and tomorrow, or it does not. Its temporal and geographical locations almost entirely depend on peace activities and result from active practicing of peace promoting activities. ‘Doing war’ is therefore, not a necessary condition for achieving reconciliation, but directly opposite condition that can best be defined as the absence of peace, and peace promoting activities.

The list of previously mentioned strategies is by no means exclusive, but it is an example of how different visions for the future as well as a different worldview bring different understanding of how conflicts are to be understood and resolved. Current and traditional means of resolving conflicts have resulted in a well-documented violent history. If future histories are to be changed, traditional, neo-liberal, ‘realists’ and patriarchal discourses, with their trademark short-term orientation, need to be abandoned. They could be replaced with alternatives that provide an expanded sense of time and long-term orientation as well as a more balanced views on war/violence, human nature, history, conflict, power, sovereignty, security, strength, identity, peace and future. This means that it is those alternatives that are, in effect, more ‘pragmatic’, ‘realistic’ and viable. The emerging global order requires constant negotiations and building of alliances between all our diversities. It requires global justice and fairness rather then the ‘might is right’ approach currently practiced by individualistically oriented and self-centered nation states. In our globalized, ‘compressed’, ‘hyperreal’ and ‘hybrid’ world the alternatives that aim to develop both unified and diversified terrestrial futures have not become less, but rather more urgently needed and necessary. Consequently, they could potentially be one important path that can be taken in order to, epistemologically and strategically, support the efforts and struggles toward global peace and global security.

References:

Ackerman, Peter and DuVall, Jack (2000) A Force More Powerful: A Century of Nonviolent Conflict, St. Martin’s Press, New York.

Bell, Wendell (2000), “New Futures and the Eternal Struggle between Good and Evil”, New Futures: Transformations in Education, Culture and Technology, Proceedings from the International Conference on New Futures, Tamkang University, Taipei, Taiwan.

Benhabib, Seyla (1992) Situating the self: Gender, community and postmodernism in contemporary ethics. New York, Routledge.

Boulding, Elise (1990) Building a Global Civic Culture: Education for an Interdependent World, Syracuse University Press, Syracuse.

Boulding Elise (1998) “Peace culture; the problem of managing human difference”, Cross Currents, Winter 1998, v48, n4.

Brock-Utne, Birgit (1985) Educating for Peace: A Feminist Perspective, Pergamon Press, New York.

Burchill, Scott and Linklater, Andrew (1996) Theories of International Relations, St. Martin’s Press, New York.

Cooke, Miriam and Wollacott, Angela eds. (1993) Gendering War Talk, Princeton: Princeton University Press.

DuVall, Jack (2001), http://worldsbiggesthug.dingojunction.com/inspirational.htm

Enloe, Cynthia (1993) The Morning After: Secular Politics at the End of the Cold War Berkeley: University of California Press.

Eisler, Riane (2000), Tomorrow’s Children, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado.

Fukuyama, Francis (1992) The End of History and the Last Man, Penguin, London.

Galtung, Johan (2001), “September 11 2001: diagnosis, prognosis, therapy”, http://www.transcend.org/

Grant, Rebecca and Newland, Kathleen, eds. (1991) Gender and International Relations, Open University Press, Milton Keynes.

Hazel Henderson (1991) Building a Win-Win World: Life Beyond Global Economic Warfare, Berrett-Koehler Publishers, San Francisco.

Hazel Henderson (1999) Beyond Globalization: Shaping a Sustainable Global Economy, Kumarian Press, West Hartford, Connecticut.

Hirschmann, Nancy (1989) “Freedom, Recognition, and Obligation: A Feminist Approach to Political Theory,” American Political Science Review, 83 (1989): 1227-1244.

Inayatullah, Sohail (2001) World Futures After the Terror. www.ru.org. A short version has appeared in The Futurist. Vol. No. 2001. A full version is to appear in Development (forthcoming 2002).

Mische, Patricia (1989) “Ecological Security and the Need to Reconceptualize Sovereignty”, Alternatives 14 (1989).

Moynagh (1997) “A politics of enlarged mentality: Hannah Arendt, citizenship responsibility, and feminism”, Hypatia, Fall 1997, v 12, n 4.

New Internationalist, November, 2001.

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Paterson, Matthew (1996) “Green Politics”, in Burchill, S. and Linklater, A.  Theories of International Relations, St. Martin’s Press, New York, 1996, pp 252-275.

Pettman, Jan Jindy (1996) Worlding Women: A Feminist International Politics, London: Routledge.

Peterson, V Spike and Runyan, Anne Sisson (1999) Global Gender Issues, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado.

Reardon, Betty (1993) Women and Peace: Feminist Visions of Global Security, State University of New York Press, Albany.

Roy, Arundhati (2001), “Why America Must Stop The War Now”, Guardian Unlimited, Tuesday October 23, 2001. http://www.guardian.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,4283081,00.html

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Sivard, Ruth Leger (1996) World Military and Social Expenditures, World Priorities, Washington, DC.

Sylvester, Christine (1993) “Feminists and Realists View Autonomy and Obligation in International Relations”, in Peterson, V.Spike, ed. Gendered States: Feminist (Re)Visions of International Relations Theory, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder, Colorado.

“The Ohio Story”, National Priorities Project, America-at-a-glance Series, 1, 1997:3, in Peterson, V Spike and Runyan, Anne Sisson Global Gender Issues, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado.

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[i] Warism is understood as the view, a cultural predisposition, that war is both morally justifiable in principle and often morally justified in fact (Cady, 1989). Alternatively, ‘warists’ or ‘war realists’ consider morality to be irrelevant, inapplicable, or ineffective in relation to war (Cady, 1989)

SMART – A preferred Vision for Redcliffe-Caboolture (2002)

By Sohail Inayatullah

1.      Background

Over 50 health care professionals met on April 17th at the Redcliffe Convention center to develop a shared vision of the future. The aim of this conference was underpinned by a need to create a single intent that ‘pulled’ multiple realities held by limited stakeholders into one vision that could:

1.      Facilitate growth in community building.

2.      Integrate and align effort towards a common purpose with a beginning towards an integrated planning approach.

3.      Articulate an image of preferred Health Futures.

4.      Create an opportunity to develop relationships and possible partnerships within a common cause.

The driving reason to conduct such a session was due to limited levels of integrated approaches to health planning by health professionals within the Redcliffe and Caboolture Regions but other regions throughout Australia. The intention was that this model of grassroots futures work could become portable, allowing real transformation in health delivery throughout the nation.

2.      Conference Day

The conference day was divided into the following stages.

1.      An opening presentation by Aboriginal Elder Peter Bird. Bird’s His main point was that to develop a shared vision of the future, we must acknowledge how settlement destroyed the health of aboriginal peoples. Creating a future must begin with redressing past grievances.

2.      The first session focused on creating health pasts. The three main trends identified were: (1) less funds available and thus the move from abundance to tough choices; (2) the development of community health and (3) technological advances

3.      A keynote address by Sohail Inayatullah. He made the following points. 1. Creating an integrated framework for health care is foundational necessity given the overwhelming changes to health. Whether it is genomics, cyberhealth, an aging population or  the rise of complementary medicine, traditional delivery systems of health are being dramatically challenged. The economic reality of globalization – more porous nations, privatization – force agencies to do more with less. While daunting this is possible through integrative visions and strategies. Four solutions were provided: coordinate care; smart card; community care; and integrated system.

4.      Sectorial presentations from Ralph Smallhorn (General Practice), John O’Brian (Queensland Health), Jeanette Evans (Blue Care); Darryl Baker (Redcliffe City Council) and, Chantal de Vere (Natural Healing). We briefly summarize their main points.

Ralph Smallhorn made the following points. 1. There are not enough gps (or nurses). 2. We will see an increased number of part time GPs. This is already evident in women GPs. 3. GPs should treat only what others groups cannot. 4. GPs must work with other groups as to create a multi-door integrated scenario of the future.

John O’Brian articulated Queensland Health’s vision for the future. This is:

Health is a lifetime investment, education as consciousness of health choices

both in terms of life style and smart consumer, and health as resource (a healthy population is cheaper to maintain). The main future issue is the transition from health for children to health for the aged.

Darryl Baker developed how the local council is working in the health area. His talk focused on community capacity building, as for example, the local library which has become a core areas of learning and community building.

Jeanette Evans saw health a pivotal investment to our future. While the demand for health for often insatiable and increased aging made health care delivery even more difficult, advances in technology (tele-health, for example) and the possibility of integration offered some hope for the future.

Chantel De Vere pointed out how complementary medicine was leading the way in many areas of health care, and, becoming increasingly respectable. The presented numerous case studies – for example, at Southern Cross University – to illustrate that the walls between traditional and complementary medicine were breaking.

Next were six break-out groups. They were charged with the task of developing a preferred vision. Points of agreement from the disparate groups where developed in a collective visioning session.

3. The Vision

VIRTUAL MULTIDOOR HEALTH/VIRTUAL MULTI PERSONAL LIFE HEALTH PLAN/HEALTH FOR LIFE

S          Seamless Portals

M        Multi-Tier

A         Access

R         Relations and Community Building

T          Trust/Respect/Ethics

The following describes in more detail the vision:

·        Virtual teams

·        Person-based, holism

·        Prevention, early intervention

·        Unique ID number, card system, health points

·        Co-ordinate life style interventions

·        Community Care at the centre/core – person – trust

·        Funding values shift towards wellness model

·        Smart system – interactive – TV

·        Seamless strategic alliances

·        Volunteerism

·        New measurements

·        Smart astute use of current resources

·        Shared doable vision

·        Breaking down barriers

·        Sustainablility

·        Client focused

·        Federal plus local

·        All individuals accountable

·        Multiple entry – suppliers

Some of the social factors necessary for this vision included.

·        Ten year funding cycle

·        From greedy society to community

·        30 hour working week – improved connectedness/health

New indicators were measure movement toward this vision, among them were: no homeless and a comfortable death.

An essential value behind this vision was: trust and respect.

To move toward this vision, it was agreed that a pilot project was necessary.

Further next steps included:

Community Information

·        Involvement

·        Focus groups

·        funding

·        local members, political buy-in

·        Media involvement

These communities needed to be: Physical and Virtual

Potential users/suppliers needed to be assessed as well.

4. Small Groups

What follows are the reports from the small groups. They are the data, information and values from which the group prepared a consensus vision.

1. Red Group: Facilitator Philip Daffara. Vision 2101

Ensure a wholistic continuous lifetime care plan is co-created for each individual, encompassing Prevention, Empowerment and Sustainable well-being

To achieve this Vision we the Redcliffe-Caboolture-Bribie community intend to:

·        Develop a web portal of all health service providers in the District to integrate the sequential delivery of individual (care plan) based services;

·        Build community leadership and Ethics;

·        Promote and provide incentives for the development and maintenance of care plans using credits for preventative actions;

·        Promote and facilitate the switch of restructuring of Federal and State funding and reporting arrangements so that it moves with the Care Plan outcomes.

·        Develop a system and Strategic Plan to measure the “Health” of the community, the effectiveness of Strategic alliances and collaborative partnerships to achieve the vision;

·        Facilitate the planning of future health service needs with Local Governments (Redcliffe, Caboolture and Kilcoy Councils) so that social infrastructure is provided for new developments in accordance with the integrated Planning Act.

·        Habitat needs to sustain community health.

·        Empower Minority and Mainstream communities and provide physical and cultural space and freedom to allow them to improve their own health. Eg Indigenous, Youth, Gay)

·        Promote Life Education at schools and for the disadvantaged to increase the awareness of the benefits if a lifetime Health Care Plan, responsibility for their choices and the benefits of a holistic view.

·        Promote the Investigation of the triple bottom line benefits of introducing a Health Tax or excise on unhealthy products, to increase alternative sources of funds; and investigate the impact of having Private Insurance premium reductions if preventive actions are implemented in an individual’s care plan.

Shared values were:

Innovative, tolerant, sensitive, compassionate, fulfilling, proactive, flexible, Ethical, confidential, equitable, socially just, sustainable, viable, responsive, mentors, sharing, honest, openly communicative, building relationships.

2. Green Group. Facilitator. Eric Dommers. Vision for Redcliffe Caboolture health system in 2012.

Structural

1.      There is alignment of all district service providers (health, education, housing, employment, council etc), and all operate on a 10 year funding cycle.  This enables budgets to be designed with a view to reaping savings/investments from prevention initiatives.  This has enabled local service providers to invest in both inter-organisational integration initiatives, as well as primary prevention initiatives.

2.      Inter-organisational arrangements include Memoranda of Understanding linking various service providers for both ‘population groups’, and whole of population initiatives. All service providers are fully accredited and are also academic institutions conducting professional/vocational preparation and training courses. The focus of these courses is on training service providers to be multi-disciplinary.  Health service providers have agreed on the use of best practice protocols and guidelines for various disease entities.

3.      Primary care is still provided and co-ordinated by GPs.  GP businesses are operated within a range of quasi-corporate structures.  The local community still regards GPs as a first point of access, and no-one in need is denied access (ie. some bulk billing arrangements are still in place).  GPs work with a range of other primary care providers such as “St. Blues” to co-ordinate the care of patients with complex needs.

4.      Structural efficiencies and a concomitant need for flexibility have resulted in a wide range of strategic alliances and amalgamations among health service providers.  The preventive arena has become a market, with payments available for locals who are in danger of falling through the gaps in the safety net. A wide range of service packages is available for at risk/marginalised individuals.

5.      Service information is accessible through various home and community media, and a key social education tool is ‘service literacy’, and ‘health literacy’.

6.  All salaried employees work a maximum 30 hour week. This enables people to have mote quality time with their families, and in supporting their local community.  Volunteering is a strong community theme. The 30 hr working week has also increased the levels of employment, and improved local health, and social connectedness.

Scenario

Mrs. Jones wakes in the morning, and tunes into her health information channel. The monitor bids her good morning, bio-senses her health status, makes a health service appointment with a local GP, and advises her of the time of the appointment with the Mayne-Blue-QUT-Salvos Health Service and tune up centre.

Mrs. Jones’ estranged younger cousin Mary, is homeless, unemployed, and physically and emotionally depressed.  She is identified as ‘at risk’ by the ‘Blue Salvos’ bounty group. Mary is offered a holistic and co-ordinated package of services including temporary shelter, a shower, aromatherapy, ‘quality listening’, a health check, and employment counselling.  The package is paid for by the ‘Upstream Health Investment Fund’, which pays for the services from a ten year ‘prevention contributions levy’ contributed by relevant local service providers on the assumption that there will be a return on their investment through a reduction in Mary’s estimated  future use of acute and emergency services. Mary’s QoL improves dramatically, and she is now working as a volunteer for the local council.

3. Blue Group Facilitator.,  Steve Gould

Stated Vision: ‘Relational Health’

To break down the barriers through community/service provision, education, and sharing by empowering that which leads to seamless care in sustainable health environments.

This vision was based upon descriptive statements of what measures could be observed by participants within their respective health care fields of work and is based upon preliminary descriptors of meaningful outcomes/visions previously mentioned.

Themes

No paper.

High levels of customer satisfaction (both internally and externally).

Acceptance of “stay ins” as a right of choice to remove oneself from the community.

Expedient access and processing of health clients through the medical system by multi team approaches.

Layered assessment of health clients to target interventions based upon primary vs acute care.

Empowered and informed communities to facilitate targeted interventions based upon primary vs acute care.

Provision of alternative options to ‘first choice’ medical interventions other than the GP as the first point of contact.

Removal of barriers to local GPs which prevent locals accessing their preferred GPs.

(This situation was due to long waiting lists.)

Increased access points to multiple health providers within the existing health system by community.

Increased usage of virtual technologies to alleviate demands on health system.

Functional integrated planning for local health community.

Developed partnerships and relationships within the local health community.

Sharing of health clients and information to facilitate expedient service to clients.

Partnered ‘funding generation’ activities.

Care providers as a vehicle of change via communication and braking down the barriers.

Increased opportunities to be involved in future visioning.

Shared values were:

·        Direction or told what to do.

·        Learning

·        Sharing

·        Relationships

·        Purpose

·        Results

·        Influence

4. Facilitator: Ivana Milojević. Preferred Vision for the Future of Redcliffe-Caboolture Health.

Collaborative Care 2020

·        Only two levels of government in Australia: e.g. national (federal) and regional

·        Movement from the greedy society towards giving one. Cultural values are changed: promotion of ‘old-fashion’ values of caring, tolerance, compromise. Sense of community also back.

·        Health system more integrated: ‘share-care’, collaborative approach, collaborative action research planning, teamwork – ‘mobile working teams’ (not necessarily in the same building). Mutual respect and recognition crucial (instead of saying nurses or doctors or allied health practitioners ‘are only good for …’). Everyone’s skills are respected and valued. Also important to accept the limitations of what service providers can offer.

·        Collaboration between ‘mobile working teams’ through improved communication and connection. There is enhanced communication and referral linkages facilitated by unique ID number, client data record (similar to smart cart), owned by client.

·        Client and community are put in the middle – services are planned around them and their needs.

·        Responsibility goes back to people themselves who are in charge of their own health. People are more responsible and accountable for their health. Affordable and timely access to healthy lifestyle is improved. Focus on lifestyle change and promotion of wellness. Focus on education (of children, parents, health workers, community, society).

·        There is an increased focus on prevention across community service providers. Resources are re-distributed – there is a balanced placement of funds on ‘prevention-early intervention-illness-palliative care’ continuum.

·        There is life course approach to health – intervention at transitional milestones (e.g. birth, starting school, adolescence, etc.). Services working together around schools.

Recommendations

·        More funding into community. Community based system.

·        More aged care facility. More appropriate staff, nurses, allied health practitioners, teachers-educators.

·        $ freed by money moving from (1) rearrangement in governance, (2) illness end – prevention saving money in the long term

·        Land development taking into account broader set of issues – e.g. public spaces.

·        Development of healthy food chain stores.

·        High employment rate, reduced gap between rich and poor.

·        Euthanasia debate over – replaced by palliative care [not generally agreed upon]

·        Emergence of a ‘major computer virus’ – re-introduction of traditional games among children, as subjects at school, etc.

5.      Faciltator. Marcus Bussey.

The vision had two dimensions – a wellness building and wellness hug.

The Wellness Building

This definition of wellness as an essential social capital builds a 4 tiered health system that is rooted in consciousness: education for Living.  It progresses through a Community health network of positive relationships; moves to the physical centres of health and healing and has at its summit the Spiritual “I”, that acknowledges that the role of meditation and personal reflection is central to a well being.

This was represented as a pyramid.

The “Wellness Hub”

Represented as a wheel with relationship at the centre.

This idea places relationships at the centre of health, both personal and professional.

A sick person enters the health system through their own chosen modality.  This trusted professional acts as a guide.  She or he may or may not be a GP but they will be able to provide clear pathways through an integrated system that includes home care, library access, meals on wheels, mental health, specialist treatments, etc…

Values Shift

·        Sickness to Health

·        Specialist to Holistic

·        Isolation to Integration

Key Ideas

·        Needs Management for client based on personal relationship

·        Relationships between client and workers

·        Information Management Infrastructure (Computers)

·        Clear Marketing of integrated services

·        Opportunities for self referral

Outcomes

·        Relationships leading to responsiveness to individual needs

·        Wellness Vs Sickness resolved in favour of former

·        Value structures for funding to change

·        Information management – techno + humane

6.      Facilitator: Patricia Kelly

Vision: Client Focused Future

Features

·        One prime level of government

·        Tiered roles addressed staff shortages as professionals are supervising and engaged in educating families.

·        Community and residential services integrated  including transport services – to support well aged

·        A comfortable death -pain free, intervention if required, euthanasia not illegal

·        Health maintenance and prevention of illness means that everyone experiences wellness in all aspects, physical, mental, spiritual, cultural.

·        It is a concerned community, with everyone accountable and responsible

·        No homeless, no pollution

·        Nuclear and extended families

·        Ethical decision making

·        Consensus based on trust. Competition has gone with changed funding

·        Competency testing for over 65s

·        More accountable – accurate, informed choice

o       May not get the choice you want  eg if you are a smoker or a drinker you may  not get access to heart transplant

·        Better focussed

·        Discourse – turn problems into challenges

  • At a personal level only one person stated his preferred life in 2012 but others agreed. The elements were  3 days work, from 10- 4, twice the salary, a healthy person, valued, resourced to meet individual and community needs
Drivers for change:

·        Funding – limited supply

·        Yearning for quality of life

·        Explosion of technology

·        Expansion of knowledge

The Client focussed future was presented as a diagram with a virtual centre at the core.

Coming off this were these elements

1.      client focussed – in all dimensions

2.      trust

a.       professional respect

b.      re-evaluated roles – chosen core business, specialty areas

3.      one bucket of money

a.       shared accountability

b.      local government to take responsibility for health services through negotiating and accountability

4.      community services

a.       minimal duplication

5.      consumer choice

a.       “health points” linked to…

b.      smart card,

c.       better marketed to population … linked to…

6.      information integration and transfer

a.       data bases all linked electronically   so no need for reassessment, hard to lie to system

7.      health maintenance and illness prevention

8.      All These Changes Began With A Pilot Program In 2002/3with the suggestion this might be North Lakes.

Additional information

Trust. Service providers need to be non-territorial and recognise the professionalism of others. This requires trust that has to be built through discussion hence the pilot project. All agreed that competition for limited funds creates much of the current tension between groups.

Integration, Including transport services

An Alternative Scenario to the preferred vision was:

2012 Breakdown Scenario

·        No integration

·        Duplication of infrastructure leading to wastage and inefficiency

·        Under-resourcing

·        Low socio-economic groups leading to  third-world conditions and disasters in multiple areas, including raised suicide rates.

·        Unrepresentative demographics with majority aged

·        Budget cuts leading to equity issues – not enough people to provide services leading to

·        Burn-out

There was consensus that we are currently on this track

Facilitator Comments

1. Ivana Milojević

Comment

General agreement on the first part. ‘Other ideas’ show some contradictions with the general vision or haven’t been more thoroughly explored, or there was some disagreement among participants. E.g. there was a contradiction between ‘more aged care facility’ (promoted by palliative care nurse) and ‘no need for increased funding, instead, redistribution of resources’ as well as ‘more balanced placement of funds’ meaning more resources into prevention and less into ‘end-stage of illness’. Similarly, emergence of a ‘major computer virus’ inconsistent with the development of electronic ID card. Also, some ideas too broad, e.g. high employment rate or reduced gap between rich and poor.

2. Steve Gould

Reflections

Upon assessment of events from Wednesday 17th April 2002, the following questions remain unanswered:

·        Q: How will GPs release themselves from traditions knowledge based hierarchies?

·        Q: How will future policy making impact upon how decisions are made?

·        Q: How will future funding be dispersed and under what criteria?

·        Q: What are the implications for future technologies upon industries that are dependent upon existing health service provisions.

·        Q: How will the shift towards self-diagnosing and self-dispensing technologies impact upon current service deliveries?

·        Q: Who are the future stakeholders?

·        Q: What is the future role of Government entities? Regulation or Socialistic Service provision?

·        Q: Where is the ‘way forward’ manual?

Conflicts to the Vision

Possible barriers to ennobling the preferred Vision are:

·        Loss of power bases.

·        Hoarding of patient knowledge.

·        Impotence of action.

·        Translation into pragmatic languages.

·        Adherence to existing health practices.

·        Espoused rhetoric without behavioral transformation.

·        Limited stakeholder ownership.

Future Implications

Possible implications are:

·        Diffusion of traditional power bases, from GP to allied health practitioners.

·        Equity and access to medical information.

·        Development of ‘redundancy mentality’ within practitioners.

·        De-mystifying the diagnostic processes through knowledge empowerment.

·        Developing the evolution of alternative health intervention choices as acceptable and valid.

·        Growth in litigation behaviours within the community.

Future Actions

To continue with the momentum generated on the vision workshop, it is crucial to follow up quickly with a series of activities to evolve the endorsement of the vision by all stakeholders. This can be achieved by:

1.      Plan a series of workshops to develop ‘ownership’ of the vision. This can be achieved through stakeholder assessment workshops.

2.      Develop a ‘Values Statement’ for the Region to dovetail into the Vision.

3.      Explore preferred scenarios for the Region

4.      Develop a Strategic and Operational plans to enable the ‘operationalisation’ of goals and strategies from the preferred vision.

5.      Develop ‘meaningful measures’ that PULL the desired future and act as feedback loops into future reflection workshops.

3. Patricia Kelly

Comments:

.      The preferred scenario depends on an assumed computer literacy, which seems unlikely for  the majority of this ageing population.

.      Any futures work with any of the groups or in the suggested pilot project would benefit from time to air and discuss concerns and current problems, possibly in separate groups and then coming together with a summary of issues.

.     To do quality futures work the participants may  need  more work with Futures  ideas and concepts.

Epistemes and the Long Term Future (2002)

By Sohail Inayatullah

Forecasts of the future often assume that the larger epistemological context for events and trends are stable. However, taking a macrohistorical perspective – drawn from Johan Galtung’s and Sohail Inayatullah’s, Macrohistory and Macrohistorians and Michel Foucault’s The Order of Things – forecasts themselves are understood by the episteme that shapes them. For example, the likelihood of a particular technological development has a greater or lessor likelihood of occurrence depending on the nature of the episteme – the knowledge boundaries – that is current.

Epistemes are the larger and deeper paradigms of knowledge – reality – that contextualize the boundaries of what can be known. They interact with social, economic, technological and intellectual developments. At the most simple, epistemic history is seen in three stages: ancient (Greek or Roman), medieval (Christian middle ages) and modern (rise of the West), with the postmodern (the collapse of grand narratives) being the next likely stage.  In the Indian context, this is read as ancient (Hindu), medieval (Muslim) and modern (British/nationalism).

Economy and technology

Alternatively, more focused on economy as pivotal, grand thinkers argue for an agricultural, industrial and postindustrial schema, with these categories created by the means of production and the types of work done in each historical stage. This division allows theorists to argue for future stages such as a services age or even an artistic age.  Likewise, Comte and Spencer, whose categories of history and future are those that we live today, gave us primitive, modern and scientific (positivism) as historical stages, with the latter for all practical purposes being the final stage when truth is known, and all that is left to is to implement social and scientific laws.  It is this latter assumption of a unified historical and future framework, an unbroken grand narrative of social evolution, that guides many forecasts – probable, plausible, possible. They do not take into account the possibility of the entire framework of what is we consider nature and truth changing, of the emergence of new nominations of significance, of fundamental discontinuity.  Believing that the future will be data-led – focused only on current dominant drivers (economy or technology), we get logical scenarios based on short-run current understandings.

Alas, if only history and future were so simple. A macrohistorical view shows us quite the opposite, that all attempts to postulate the end of history, or the unending continuation of a particular social formation – whether capitalism or liberalism or modernism or communism or the religious vision of “heaven on earth” – are doomed to fail.

This is partly because the mechanisms of civilizational change are not only exogenous (planet change, asteroids) and endogenous (creativity, drive to dominate, dialectics) but interactive and mysterious, that is, unknown, epistemologically discontinuous.  Seen from this perspective the shape of the future of knowledge comes out quite differently.

Cyclical history and futures

The Indian philosopher P. R. Sarkar is perhaps most instructive. He finds evidence for four stages: worker, warrior, intellectual (priest) and merchant. Each social stage defines what is truth, the natural and the beautiful, more so each stage defines what is of significance. After the merchant stage, the cycle starts over. Thus to forecasts which assert that economic globalization will continue unabated, Sarkar points out that historically all systems exaggerate a particular type of power. Thinking forward 1000 years, we can well imagine the cycle going through many stages, with the current globalization of capital eventually leading to a globalization of labor, which will possibly lead to a more disciplined unified martial society (which will likely expand to outerspace, as martial civilizations tend to do, expand outward, that is). This stage of World Empire will then lead to another era where ideas about God and truth will flourish. Overtime, there will be a decline since intellectual ideals will not be able to deal with other factors of reality, leading to yet another focus on economics and wealth creation.

Sorokin also finds evidence of non-linearity in history. He posits that historical change follows the pattern of the pendulum. Civilizations move backward and forward between ideational societies focused only on the nature of truth to sensate civilizations focused on pleasure and capital accumulation. Each one swings too far, with integrative stages appearing on occasion. Thus, we should expect to see in the next hundred or so years, a swing away from the sensate to the ideational. In a 1000 years, there will be additional swings, a few hundreds year of each.

Emergence and evolution

The main point is that all systems are to some extent patterned and change is intrinsic in them. This is far more complex then the lay view that the decline follows the rise (although certainly there is historical truth to this) since there is novelty, emergence. As Vico wrote hundreds of years ago, the laws of social change are soft, the past never repeats in the same way.

Certainly then there is a role for individuals, for new technologies, for grand social movements, for bifurcation as Ilya Prigogine and other modern scientists have argued. However, is as well, argues Arnold Toynbee, imitation and thus eventual decline. But with all generational decline, a new era can be ushered in by a creative minority.  However, there are not endless possibilities to social structure, to the shape of the new era. There are only a few possible evolutionary structures (at this stage, at least): local, self-reliant culture systems; a new world church (ideational); a new world empire; or the “Wallersteinian” mixture of local polities and a world economy – the capitalist world economy we have today. There are not an endless array of social choices, just as for humans, biology and genetics “determine” the shape of what we are.

As with modern/postmodern thinkers, for grand cyclical historians, novelty too is part of the macroscope of time. For Sarkar and Sorokin, the pattern of history can change through directed leadership, directed social evolution. The cycle of history can be transformed to the spiral, the progressive movement of social evolution toward a more ideal society. However, the basic evolutionary pattern of the cycle – in Sarkar’s theory of worker/martial/intellectual/merchant – cannot change since these are evolutionary, historically developed.  Exploitation and human misery, war and domination can be ended but history does not end, there are always new challenges.

For Sorokin, there are only five ways to answer the question of what is real, what is true. Either the ideational world is truth; the sensate world is truth; both are true; the question is not important; or one can never know. Of the latter two categories, no civilization can be created.  From the former three, we get the ideational, sensate and integrated epochs. Johan Galtung has added the notion of contraction and expansion arguing that civilizations are often in different phases to each other. For example, the West and Islam are in counter-cyclical phases, taking turns being in contraction and expansion modes.  Chinese philosopher Ssu-Ma Chi’en, in contrast, saw history and future less in the context of bifurcation, of transformation, and more in terms of a harmony cycle. When the leader follows the tao, that which is essentially natural, then civilization flourishes, virtue reigns, however, overtime leaders degenerate and move away from learning. Virtue degenerates and harmony disappears.  Eventually, however, a new leader appears, a sage-king, and equilibrium is restored. The future then for Ssu-ma Chi’en can best be understand by examining how closely leadership is virtuous.

There are thus structural limitations as to what is possible, there are historical evolutionary patterns. But what is crucial of this discussion is that it is not just new technologies or human creativity that will create the future, but that these stages are the larger epistemes which define what is the true, the good and the beautiful, that frames how we think about the future. Epistemes do change – great humans create new discourses that change the nature of what it is to be; new technologies transform the nature of reality; and grand natural events as well change reality.   Thus, while macrohistorians give us patterns which will structure the future of society, these structures evolve interactively with the new (and many times the “new” is merely ephemeral, an old form that looks different because the epistemic basis of intelligibility, of recognition have changed).

Contextualizing factors

Often, however, we investigate the latter, and not the former, creating realities, that while interesting, do not give us insight into the mechanisms of past and future, since they do not account for the grant structures in history – the patterns of social and civilizational change. The factors analysed are done so from a short term data-heavy perspective, forgetting the overall episteme that shapes what constitutes data.  Instead of breaking new ground into the long-term factors impacting the future, forecasts merely restate the current politics of reality. While they assume that there will be fantastic new technologies or events they hold stable the foundational nature of reality, not contesting the epistemological and civilizational basis of political, economics and society.

However, by focusing on episteme we can gain a sense of what will be the overall paradigm of what it means to be human. The future nature of epistemes thus becomes a factor that interacts with forecasts of new technologies (external nature-domination or internal self-domination, for example), new movements, and new societies.

The best tack then is to develop a complex knowledge base of the future that is data, value and episteme oriented, that is thus inclusive of structure and agency, at individual, national, civilizational and planetary levels.

Virtual and Genetic Challenges to Green Politics and Planning (2002)

Is sustainability possible in a world of cloned cats, animals and rights of robots?

By Sohail Inayatullah

Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan; Sunshine Coast University, Sippy Downs.

Based on a keynote speech presented to the Environmental Institute of Australia, Brisbane, August 2, 2002.

Clearly, few of you in the room have a virtual cat or an animat and I doubt if you spend your nights thinking about the rights of robots. I am not here to argue that you should but rather here to consider the futures of environmental management in the context of different futures. Among these futures is one where the nature of nature will dramatically change, wherein cloned cats and animats will become the norm not the wild-edge of weird science.

Without a doubt, traditional notions of the environment are undergoing dramatic changes – from nature to the built environment to a world where the notion of nature and technology is blurring. What this means for the environmental manager is that their workload will increase and become dramatically more complex. This is a deepening, but also an expansion in the sense that an environmental managers will need to consider issues not just of the environmental impact of new urban development but technological issues as well. What this also means is that there will be new entrants into the market, focused on specific issues concerned with the new technologies – the likely impacts of germ line enginneering or, less grand, that of the surveillance mosquito just now being developed, or of the rights of robots.

First some methodological notes on determining the nature of possible change.
There are three relevant methods. First is the s-curve. The goal here is to discern emerging changes (not just trends), to anticipate them before they become dominant.

Second is the futures triangle. That is, along with competing images of the future (artificial-spaceship/gaian/realistic) there are other forces exerting pressure on the future: pushes (technologies, values shifts and globalization, for example) and the weight of history – that which is difficult to change. : power, bureaucracies, politics, the right way of doing things. As my son said, in response to a TV show on the 14 ways to make a baby, “when I grow up, I want to do it the proper way”. Unfortunately, for him and other dot.com children, when the time comes for ‘making’ children,, their kids will be of the double-helix variety, and there will be no ‘proper way’ at all. Nature will have become created by man.

Of course, one can get forecasts wrong. : Bill Gates once said, 64k is enough memory for anyone. And, forecasts can gather dust. For example, the World Trade Center twice hired security expert Charlie Schnabolk to consider if terrorism was a threat to their building. Scenarios were developed – predictable (bomb threats); probable (bombing attempts) and catastrophic (aerial bombing). Later, in 2000, he argued that the greatest threat was from “ “someone flying an airplane into a building”.”

Futures thinking must be living.

But there is another lesson here. And this is that: strategies to counter risk can never be only technical – a better firewall, more security systems, better impact statements – they also must include an understanding of the system that creates risk as well, and the paradigms that uphold those systems.

Now, I do not think your work is that different from that of a futurist. You must consider the implications of current policies, into the immediate, medium term and long term future. You must assess risk, manage risk and most importantly, communicate risk. The last part is the key: since we live in different worlds, we have different perspectives of what futures we desire. And we are no longer a united.

Challenges to the Future

Multiculturalism challenges the traditional view of ‘we’ as one race in one nation under one god.

Feminism challenges the gendered nature of the ‘we’ – we as male.
Postmodernism challenges the view that the ‘we’ always was and always will be.

Virtualism challenges the ‘we’ seeing communities not physical, but as intended and virtual – the cyber friends.

Genetics challenges the we at an even deeper level – we can now become who we want to be. As we learn, in Blade Runner when the genetic engineer is asked what he does and he replies: I make friends”  he means, ‘manufacture’ friends. Thus, the stable evolutionary nature of us is being contested.

Of course, perhaps ‘I shop therefore I am’, or god, nation and family will live on forever. And perhaps not.

Cats are being cloned, and animals created. Artificial agents are swiftly becoming or will become part of our lives, creating routines that mimic our tastes, thus reducing the burden of choice.

With eco-bots and health-bots we will have immediate information about our desires. We will be able to make better choices knowing the full value chain – who made what profit, where something was made and its ecological footprint.
Health bots will alert us to the dangers of foods – too much cholesteral, too much fat. They will also be tailored, learning from us, focused on our changing needs. Of course, we may prefer to turn off the health-bot, but will the state let us?.  Won’t that be the way to reduce health costs – the big brother that is always ‘on’, ensuring we stay healthy and reduce public expenditures. And, there is always the surveillance mosquito in case you try and take off the bot.

While we may resist, dot.com and double helix kids will jump at this, and even the current generation prefers to change capitalism buy buying their desired futures. Witness drops in  Shell and Monsonato stocks.

But, over time, these artificial intelligence bots will gain rights, not because of anything inherent in their essence, but because they will part of the air we breathe. Indeed, with the advancement of functional foods and nutraceuticals (smart foods), they will be part of the food we eat.

It is certainly a new world we are entering. One may call this ‘the future of artificial societies’, but it is one in which we will no longer distinguish the artificial from the natural. It is a world of nano-technologies, super cities, world governance – the main questions will be not only “Do androids dream of electronic sheep?”, but “What do humans do?”.

Clearly the impact on the environment will be enormous. However, the nature of the environment is likely to change, manifested in a variety of ways. : far more fluid and flexible. In much of the traditional environment, lost species are likely to be recreated either genetically or virtually. The zoo will change dramatically, once again becoming central to the city. Indeed, one can easily imagine three Olympics – a drug free one, a doped up one, and then the gene enhanced one.

The impact of these new environments on how we think and, how we know the world will become major issues. As we move to germ line intervention and create novel new forms of life, again, the issue of how new life forms impact traditional notions of the environment will be of concern. However, with the environment in flux, the issue of preserving or protecting our past will be far less of an issue. The issue will be ensuring that the new environments we are creating are managed within agreed upon terms.

The terms for this future world are yet to be created. Certainly, doing no harm is likely to be one of them, that is, Asimov’s laws of robotics – not harming humans. But over time, humans will be just one of the many thinking beings on this planet.

Gaia

The other competing future is that of sustainability – a commitment to future generations; policies that are soft on the earth (taking into account our ecological footprints). This is, essentially the triple bottom line approach but writ large on the global level. Education in this future would not be about the environment but for the environment. Indeed, over time it will be in interaction with the environment – Gaia becoming alive.

In one survey of preferred city futures, only 1% preferred the city as suburb image. Sustainable development and the living city (sensing us and mothering us) was the future preferred by the others.

For environmental managers, this means not only an increased amount of work, but enhanced work routines and expanded responsibilities. Environmental management would move to include issues of social justice-multicultural-gender balance and not just development.  The environmental manager would become the triple bottom line manager.

However, with sustainable development becoming THE paradigm, environmental management may disappear as a field (becoming so successful that it becomes routinized) or become flush with entrants that are low on expertise and experience.

There are two factors. One, : problems with capitalism. That is, it capitalism can grow wealth but distribution and impact on the earth remain quandaries. The second is a values shift, the rise of the cultural creatives – a new demographic group focused on gender partnership, spiritual values, ecological pluralism and planetary governance and consciousness.

Either the system will transform, moving away from capitalism,  in a dramatic transition, or, most likely, it will move softly away – using the law, procedures and institutions to regulate a softer society.

Business as Usual

The third possibility is Business as Usual but with enhanced technology and a bit of sustainability and perhaps some international agreements in the form of treaties (carbon trading etc.) thrown in.

This is the Bush-Howard worldview. Images come and go, but at the end of the day it is power and money, narrow self-interests, and conservative family values that will rule the day. Nature is fine … but cars are better.

Sustainability is used by businesses as a competitive advantage and nations claim they are pro-environment but developers still win the day.

Education in this future is about the environment with no recognition of Gaia. Gaian alternatives stay on the margin. New technologies are merely used to increase efficiency and not to increase participation of stakeholders through, for example, cyber-democracy. The Business as Usual scenario is the one where markets come first, with environmental problems worsening and no one responsible to fix them.

Conclusion

Thus, there are three scenarios:

1. Continued growth (business as usual) but add a bit of sustainability – environmental management but no real gain in consciousness. No real change in the nature of us.

2. A dramatic change in humanity as we, in one generation, redo a few millions years of evolution. The eighth day of evolution creating new “‘we”’s.

3. A third response is the Gaian – deep foundational spritual change for sustainable development at a planetary level, creating a united planet moving inward and outward, softly.

And of course, there is a fourth response – collapse. Asteroids, volcanos, sea-level rise …

SCENARIOS

Continued Growth – business as usual and more

Artifical Transformation – the eighth day of evolution

Gaian transformation – sustainability for all

Collapse – end time

Final Questions

Which future is likely to come about?. At this stage it is difficult to tell. The weight of history suggests Business as Usual. However, this assumes a linear pattern of history. Those who lost millions in the dot. com collapse know that reality is also cyclical. What goes up, goes down. The more successful you are, the less you can see the warning signs. Success is the final step on the ladder of failure. As Cisco learned, having the best real time forecasting system means nothing if the assumptions in that system are wrong. So business as usual may continue, but as Jack Welch of GE suggests, you better face the brutal facts.

Among those brutal facts: , 3 individuals have the same total wealth as the 48 least developed nations. ; 256 have the same total wealth as half the world’s population. The amount American and Europe spend on perfume and pet food could take care of the basic needs of the entire planet.

Dot.com wizards did not face the facts. Will the Business as Usual gang. ¿ If not, perhaps they will achieve the same end as the Chinese ‘gang of four’.
Technological innovation suggests that the Artificial society is likely to dominate. : a global-tech world. But to do so, issues not only of the fundamentalism throughout the world but the proper traditional ways of operating will remains. We are perhaps not ready to push into outer space, changing our genetic nature many times in one life, designing children to up their IQ, –the real smart state.

What is likely is that with this resistance, a mix of cyber-gene-green futures may eventuate.

As much as the Gaian image of sustainable development and the living earth moves the hearts of many, the feet stay put. As one department of transport suggested, everyone wants green and public transport, but no one wants to travel on it.

And, if the collapse does come – asteroids and ice ages,  – we will need the technology to  leave this planet – I know we can leave spiritually but some of us still like our bodies.

Thus, we really don’t know which future will arrive. We do know the future that does come about will be a result of a mix of the pull, push and weight. We also know that civilizations prosper when they have a positive vision of the future and the belief that it can be achieved. But for the vision to actually move us forward, it will need to be inclusive, gender- friendly, soft on the earth, concerned for basic needs, but innovative as well – above all, it will need to be planetary.

All of us.