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The Cost of Past-Oriented Thinking
Ivana Milojević
The
University of Queensland
The
inability for futures thinking – at individual, group, national
and global levels - to forecast, develop scenarios and alternatives
has cost the former-Yugoslavia (SFRJ) hundreds of thousands of
lives, millions of displaced persons, the destruction of the
environment and economy and probably over 20 millions of wounded
minds. The legacy for the future generations is a return to
centuries old divisions, hatreds and mistrust. To recreate the past
cycles of destruction future generations will have plenty of
material to draw upon. To this day neither side involved in the
conflict has claimed their responsibility for the conflict and the
discourse of victimhood is still prevalent. The beginning of true
reconciliation is nowhere in site. Furthermore, the inability for
futures thinking and the lack of institutional foresight capacity
has cost the current Yugoslavia (FRJ) three months of intensive
bombing, around 1400 civilian lives claimed by NATO bombs,
destruction of environment and around 50 billion dollars in damages.
The
obsession with the past has cost the Serbian people the loss of
territories and expulsion of its own people, as well as migration of
young professionals. Also lost has been the virtue of common sense
and the ability to empathize with the hurts of others. The
inheritance for future generations is the passing of the legacy of
totalitarian state, and the legacy of ethnic cleansing as well as
the cost of ruined respect in the eyes of international community.
More then just ruined respect, additional cost for Serbs is that now
they are as a group equated with evil. And then there is a cost of
having to come to terms with killings, rapes, expulsion and torture
perpetrated against “the other”.
As
for the outside world, namely Europe and USA – the lack of clear
foresight led them to believe that recognition of independence for
Croatia and Slovenia and then Bosnia would not have the implication
that it did. Had they recognised that the conflict is more then less
likely would they still seat still with their fingers crossed? Or
would they immediately employed peacekeeping troops? Had they been
pro-active would they have spent a tenth amount of how much the NATO
intervention costs to build Yugoslav economy and support new
democracies or would they still refused loans and financial support
to Ante Markovic and Milan Panic? The process of re-building
economies and supporting democracies at the territories what used to
be SFRJ the Europe will still need to enter to, albeit 10 years too
late. And not only the (financial) cost is going to be much higher
this time around the process itself is going to be more complicated
and more difficult. At the same time, the price Yugoslav people had
to pay was huge. And the cost (financial, ecological) for the region
significant. The consequences for our global futures do not seem to
be so great either as the events in FR Yugoslavia this year have
also confirmed:
1.
military solution is ‘the” solution,
2.
there are justifiable wars,
3.
destruction of environment does not matter,
4.
the glorification and development of military sector is a
necessity,
5.
the goals justify means, and,
6.
the quality of human lives and human lives themselves can be
sacrificed for higher aims.
Many
of the current and past events in former Yugoslavia could have been
prevented if predicted and prediction taken seriously. For example,
had Yugoslav people developed futures scenarios in 1990 they would
have been able to foresee some future “developments”. Had
Yugoslav people knew what is the real price of nationalistic pride
would they still voted the way they did back then? Had they not dug
out events from 6th century (migration to the Balkan), 14th
century (1389 battle of Kosovo), and unresolved hurts from this one
(Balkan and WW’s) they would have been less likely to recreate the
patters of destruction. Had Yugoslav people focused on the future
they would have realised that the only positive future is the
cooperation and peace among themselves. Had they thought more of
future generations they would have created better conditions for
them living in peace and harmony. They would have developed
tolerance rather then division, trust rather then suspicion and
respect rather then hatred.
It
is a very sad fact that the Yugoslav people have not only destroyed
their country, themselves and the choices for the future generations
– they have also refused to learn this time around. The last
decade of the XX century will go into the annals of nationalistic
histories as one more example of them hurting us. One more example
of why you cannot trust others. One more example that we have to be
ever ready to “defend” ourselves. One more example of why the
repressive state and warrior like masculinities have to be
tolerated.
Welcome
back to the future - forward to the past.
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