Which Future For
South-East Queensland?
Professor Sohail Inayatullah
Tamkang University,Taiwan, University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs
and www.metafuture.org
The SEQ 2026 plan intends to: "protect biodiversity, contain urban
development, build and maintain community identity, make travel more
efficient, and support a prosperous economy. At the same time, the
Regional Plan proposes that communities be built and managed using the
most up-to-date and effective measures to conserve water and energy and
for the design and siting of buildings to take advantage of the
subtropical climate."
This is certainly a step in the right direction. SEQ provides a vision,
direction so as to deal with expected demographic change and the
resultant problems and opportunities.
Reflecting on lost opportuntiies, John Minnery writes that in 1944,"
planners proposed a one mile wide ‘green belt’ of rural land encircling
Brisbane’s developed suburbs, together with future satellite towns
linked by road. Supporters argued that cities were spreading ‘like
spilled treacle, engulfing everything in its path’. Such treacle cities
city covered good agricultural land. They led to the overloading of
water and sewerage mains and to insurmountable traffic problems."
However, this proposal was not implemented.
Asks Minnery:
"But just think how different South East Queensland would look today of
the idea had been implemented. Clear breaks in the continuous suburban
landscape now stretching from Noosa to the Tweed and beyond Ipswich.
Public effort put into towns beyond the green belt with a better
distribution of jobs and the infrastructure to serve them. And no public
concern about the looming sprawling ‘200 kilometre city’. "
SEQ 2026 has learned from this lesson in setting out a vision and new
directions for the future.
But what might 2026 actually look like? While we cannot know the future,
we can reduce uncertainty; we gain a better sense of the possibilities
through scenarios.
I offer four futures for the SEQ region.
SEQ STILL LIVABLE
SEQ 2026 goals achieved. It is 2026 and there is plenty of opportunity
in SE Queensland. The population has dramatically increased but through
good governance, community consultation and foresight, negative
possibilities (crime, congestion, pollution) have been mitigated and
positive possibilities (job growth, green belt protection, water and
energy management, travel choices) enhanced. People still want to move
to SEQ even with higher housing prices. A two class society has not
resulted as government has intervened to deal with inequity. Green
spaces are plenty and urban design is far more sensitive to local
conditions.
A fair, green and healthy go is still possible. Queenslanders still look
to government to solve their problems but they are less dependent on the
State. They are also more globalized, looking to live, work, travel,
learn from, import and export to the broader world. Using dramatic new
technologies, Queenslanders are planning for 2046.
SEQ HOT AND PAVED
SEQ 2026 goals failed as growth was too dramatic. Looking back, the plan
needed far more teeth. While it was an admirable effort to take power
away from local shires and put the region first, that is not how things
turned out. Market pressures kept housing prices going up (demand from
other parts of Australia and overseas) continued. Developers gave lip
service to green and social concerns. A two class society has started to
emerge. Traffic problems did not decrease, rather, every effort to widen
highways, in a matter of years, led to more congestion. The vicious
cycle continued. SEQ is a long highway between Coolangatta and Noosa.
Global warming has only made life worse – temperature continues to rise,
water shortages increase. SEQ is full of hot cities – paved cities with
higher than normal temperatures. Many have made money but the quality
has life for others have gone down. Health indicators continue to worsen
– citizens look to local government to solve problems. Local government
looks to State government which looks to the Federal. The Federal seeks
to stay in power. Capacity continues to shrink.
SEQ WIRED AND MISERABLE
The last twenty years have been a series of confrontations between local
authorities and regional government; between developers and
environmentalists; between individual freedom and security; between
councilors and state governments; between young and old; between rural
areas and the beach; and between new migrants (many environmental
refugees) and old migrants. Endless sprawl, congested highways, gang
warfare have made SEQ a miserable place to live in. There are many gated
communities – high gate, big dog – that give some peace to the elderly.
But outside these communities social tensions fester. Peace is also kept
via surveillance – live Google – and tough regulation. Air has been
digitalized and citizens are monitored in every possible way. Discipline
is the buzz word – SEQ returns to the political climate of the 1980s.
The attempts to plan for the future, while admirable, were met with
resistance at every level. Local concerns took precedence over regional
– and it is all a mess now. Technology and power is used to keep
collective peace.
SEQ TRANSFORMED
The concern for the long term future was ignored by some but became the
passion for many. The SEQ vision enhanced the capacity of shires all
over Queensland to develop their own visions (Logan 2026, Gold Coast
2046, Maroochy 2020, Brisbane 2026, for example). Community capacity to
innovate resulted. The cultural creatives – less than 20% of the
population in the early 2000's – has grown dramatically in the last
twenty years. The values of sustainability, spirituality, innovation,
global governance have become the official values. These values have
been reinforced through systemic (legislation, city design, tax regimes)
changes.
Instead of suburbs, work-home-community electronically linked hubs have
grown. Working in these hubs has led to dramatic jumps in productivity
(less time lost on the road, more control of one's work life). Travel
choices – walking, bikeways, car, and light rain – have increased.
Organic gardens have sprouted everywhere. Smart green technologies exist
all over Queensland. Indeed, not only has this transformed Queensland,
but exports of these technologies are slowly but surely changing Asian
cities. SEQ is known has not just the smart centre for Australia but
also the shanti centre. Yoga, for example, a three billion dollar
business in the USA 20 years ago, has now become a trillion dollar
business and SEQ has done well from it. Healthy eating and living were
once a dream but the obesity crisis of the first ten years of this
century led to a dramatic turn around. Systems became smarter and
individuals took personal responsibility for their health. The invention
of the personal carbon credit system also led to reconfiguration of
energy use. SEQ is a world leader. There are still conflicts but
neighborhood mediation centres (not to mention peer mediation in
schools) are used to resolve many of them. While population has
increased, energy consumption has maintained steady. Innovation
continues to breed technological and social innovation. While there are
many global changes, SEQ can meet them as citizens do not see themselves
at the mercy of large institutions, their capacity to influence their
lives continues to increase.
WHICH FUTURE?
Which of these futures is the plausible one? It is certainly too soon to
tell. But decisive factors will be (1) A shared vision of the desired
future. (2) Good governance through enhanced community consultation and
anticipatory democracy. (3) Use of smart, social and sustainable
technologies to solve problems and enhance community capacity). (4)
Moving away from quick fixes to the deeper issues (for example, not just
expanding highways but increasing travel choices; not just speeding up
all processes but exploring the slow city; not just training more
doctors but changing the hierarchical structure of modern medicine). (5)
Ensuring performance indicators are linked to the direction SEQ seeks to
move toward and (6) Creating transitional strategies and cultures to
move from the industrial era to the digital/sustainable era.
Which future do you want for SEQ 2026?