"Futures studies is the systematic study of possible, probable, and preferable futures, including the worldviews and myths that underlie each future." The reasons behind this study are not only academic but about transforming the future, so that a more sustainable world can be created. Chapters describe differences between futures studies and policy analysis, types of futures studies (predictive, interpretive, critical, anticipatory action learning), scenarios as the foundational method, causal layered analysis (opening up past and present to create alternative futures, communicating futures in cross-cultural environments, future generations thinking (a values-based intergenerational approach committed to the planetary family), macrohistory and the future [see Galtung and Inayatullah, eds, Macrohistory and Macrohistorians, Praeger, 1997; FS 19:11/501], tips and pitfalls of the futures trade (patience, real participation, alternative scenarios, preferred vision, metaphors, eclecticism), trends in futures studies (toward anticipatory action learning, complexity, and moral futures), using the future to transform organizations, Q&A for the busy manager who does not see the value of futures thinking, action learning among all stakeholders (enabling wiser outcomes because goals are negotiated by participants), layered questioning (a reflexive process of opening up spaces), creating a learning organization (constantly challenging predictions or providing alternative predictions), change fatigue and the emotive dimension [see 24:5/249], necessities to create a successful future (leadership, action learning, scanning for context, inclusion of stakeholders, evaluation, contingency plans). [NOTE: Swings massively between complex and simple, macro-historical and highly practical. The 34-page annotated bibliography continues in the same vein, bringing together the new and (mostly) old, as well as profound and trivial items.]

(futures studies and organization change) 

Futures of Futures Studies (Special Issue). Edited by Richard Slaughter (Swinburne U, Melbourne). Futures, 34:3/4, April-May 2002, 239-363.

Assembles nine contrasting overviews: 1) Wendell Bell (Yale U) on criticisms of futures studies by Michael Marien and others, futures studies compared to established disciplines, the community of futurists, a transdisciplinary matrix for futures studies, the growth of intellectual capital in the field, criteria for who is a futurist, and prospects for futures studies (they "may be bright, contingent upon expanding the presence of futures studies in the curricula of colleges and universities throughout the world"); 2) Eleonora Barbieri Masini (Gregorian U, Rome) on a vision of a humanistic future by examining the futures of cultures, promoting futures-thinking for school children (an area that needs to develop greatly in the next 50 years), considering women's contribution to building a different society, and promoting cultures of peace; 3) Michael Marien (FS) on the disabling myths of futures studies (that it is a field, that it does what no one else does, that most futurists are generalists, that FS is a community rather than multiple communities, etc.), the six basic categories of futures-thinking and 115 terms that have been used (the "Five P's and a Q" include Probable futures, Possible futures, Preferable futures, Present changes, Panoramic views, and Questioning), 12 generic continua on which futures-thinkers can be located (as regards culture, style, disposition, time-frame, ideology, identity, grounding, rigor, etc.), and a "reality-based vision" for promoting futures studies (a shared vision, emphasis on a serious global information system, a widespread and evaluated academic presence, multiple excellences, "second profession" recruitment, a respected public presence, adequate funding) [request reprint from <mmarien@twcny.rr.com>]; 4) Eva Hideg (Budapest U) on the two paradigms of futures studies (futures research based on the criteria of classical science and futures studies which is more culture-based) and on evolutionary futures studies and critical futures studies; 5) Sohail Inayatullah: on the evolution of futures studies in five areas: from forecasting to anticipatory action learning, from reductionist to complex analysis, from horizontal to vertical methods of futuring, from short-term empiricist research to the return of long-term history, and from scenario development to moral futures [i.e., "better futures" - see 24:4/195]; 6) Marcus Bussey: on the need for futures studies to incorporate into its methods and practices a sense of mystery founded on a critical spiritual sensibility (visioning and imaging workshops are growing in power and sophistication); 7) H. A. Linstone (Portland State U) on long waves, corporate planning, three multiple perspective types (Technical, Organizational, Personal), and implications of the fifth long wave upswing based on infotech; 8) Andy Hines (Dow Chemical) on the confluence of organizational needs and futures studies strengths (four key needs are to be more future-oriented, to think more deeply and systematically, to be more creative, and to better deal with change); 9) Richard Slaughter on the rise of futures studies in the last half century, the civilizational challenge (rejection of the industrial flatland, the ideology of economic growth, technological narcissism, and short-term thinking), and strategies for "futures studies as a civilizational catalyst" (shared meta-goals, de-colonizing futures knowledge and building up non-Western approaches to understanding, community access to foresight, design of foresight cultures in organizations and societies, raising the profile of professional standards in futures work, a quantum jump in use of FS in educational contexts, taking Ken Wilber's Integral Vision "very seriously," designing institutions of foresight for the well-being of humankind, etc.; the central task for the futures community is to turn attention away from obsolete industrial era patterns to "the task of envisioning and designing the structural underpinnings of the next level of human civilization." [NOTE: Much to choose from as to what is happening and what ought to be done.] (futures of futures studies)

Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Education. Edited by James A. Dator (Director, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, U of Hawaii). Praeger Studies on the 21^st Century. Westport CT: Praeger, May 2002/409p/$69.95;$27.95pb.

Chapters written by 29 people from 12 different countries, describing the theories and methods underlying the courses they teach in futures studies.

1) Overviews and Histories: Wendell Bell on the systematic study of possible/probable/preferable futures; Eleonora Masini advocating closer cooperation between social sciences and futures studies; Reed Riner on the future as a sociocultural problem; W. Warren Wagar on the role of history in future studies; Richard Slaughter on the foundations of critical futures studies; Sohail Inayatullah on multicultural futures;

2) Explaining and Defining: Peter T. Manicas on the asymmetry of explanation and prediction; Peter Bishop on social change and futures practice; Erzébet Nováky on changes in the image of the future and in education; Éva Hideg on the transformation of futures research in Hungary; Mike Mannermaa on evolutionary perspectives in futures studies; Jan Huston on maximizing evolvability; Kaoru Yamaguchi on future-oriented complexity and dynamism;

3) Courses and Methods: Ikram Azam on futures studies in Pakistan; Kuo-Hua Chen on futures studies in Taiwan; Markku Sotarauta on teaching a future-seeking communicative policy process; Graham May on his course in foresight and futures studies at Leeds University; Sam Cole on global issues and futures for planners, Christopher Jones on futures as autobiography; Jordi Serra on concepts and methods; Anita Rubin on images of the future as tools for coping; Paul Wildman on consulting and teaching futures studies through the World Wide Web; David Hicks on post-modern education requiring teaching in a spirit of hope and optimism; Oliver Markley on his graduate-level course about visionary futures;

4) Concerns and Issues: Ian Lowe on incorporating futures visions into teaching; Arthur Shostak on co-creating a futures course with working-class union members; Ernest Sternberg on diagnosing global change; William Halal on the transition to a technical world of great complexity and change.

[NOTE: The most extensive collection of essays on teaching futures studies ever assembled. However, all of these essays (except two by Azam and Chen) were published in a special issue of American Behavioral Scientist (Nov-Dec 1998; FS 20:11/550) and have not been updated. One can readily agree with Dator that "it is proper that futures studies become a normal, widely accepted part of each university everywhere on the planet" and that "a futures orientation should be a specific part of all academic endeavors." But there is no assessment or even speculation here as to whether futures literacy courses are expanding in number and quality, and in fact having any influence in "advancing futures."] (futures studies courses)