Report
Of Unesco And World Futures Studies Course On Prospective
Studies For Policymaking
Sohail Inayatullah
Sponsored
by UNESCO in conjunction with the world futures studies federation and
coordinated by Professor Tony Stevenson of the Queensland University of
Technology, a one week course on prospective studies for policymaking
was held in Suva, Fiji from July 5-10.
The
13 participants represented Pacific island nations from the Cook
Islands, Tuvula, Tonga, Samoa, Papua and New Guinea, Fiji and Kiribati.
Resource persons for the course included retired director of the
Institute of South Pacific Studies Ron Crocombe and Sohail Inayatullah,
presently working as a political scientist and futurist in Hawaii.
Florence Delimon represented UNESCO at the meeting.
The
course was organized around three themes. The first was an introduction
to futures studies. This was done by examining emerging trends and
possible world futures and their potential impact on government
policymaking in the Pacific. Futures methods particularly emerging
issues analysis and scenario building were covered as well.
These methods were then used by participants in the creation of
their desired futures for the Pacific.
The
second theme was the future of sovereignty in the Pacific. The critical
question raised was: has political independence led to economic and
cultural freedom or has it created a new elite?
The third theme was the futures of education.
Participants developed four scenarios for education in the
Pacific Islands. They were: a status quo scenario, a 40% budget cut scenario,
a high-technology scenario and a cultural revolution scenario.
An incasting exercise using the following variables: budget;
teacher/student ratio; infrastructure; curriculum; role of students;
role of teachers; key actors; and general image, helped to further
refine the scenarios.
Participants
believed that the status-quo scenario reflected the present wherein
students are treated as commodities and teachers are forced into the
role of wardens. Curriculum design remains based on foreign colonial
cultural categories. The
main actor in this scenario is the government and the image of education
is that of a prison system.
The
second scenario attempted to infer the status of the educational system
if there was a 40% cut in funding (from a long term recession or other
factors). Education in this
scenario would be more focused on survival skills, it was believed.
Classes might be held at community centers and at home instead of
at schools. The role of the State in determining curriculum would
decrease as an informal system developed, most likely spearheaded by the
Church. Females might
remain in school while males would probably be needed in the
agricultural survival sector.
The
third scenarios assumed the existence of low cost high communications
technology allowing the Pacific to be intimately connected with the
entire planet. Teachers would become facilitators with the most
important ratio that of student to computer not student to teacher.
Where individual computer ownership was prohibited, there would be tele-cottages
where interactive classes would be held.
While the image of education would be learning/knowledge based
where small would once again become beautiful, participants feared that
educational software would be monopolized by Japan or China. Given the advantages to the North-East, Pacific educational
software design would find it difficult to enter this market.
Nonetheless, this scenario was considered a posiitve future, ripe
with possibilities for increased knowledge and greater community
involvment.
The
final scenario stressed the role of Pacific cultural categories.
The question was what might education look like if it was
designed in the Pacific Way by Pacific islanders?
In general it was believed that the budget for education would go
up substantially, that Church and community would have a much stronger
role in shaping the nation's eduational policies and there would be
numerous Pan-Pacific networks. Finally,
islanders would have a renewed sense of self and community as their
historical frames of knowing would be legitimated.
However, it was believed that for this educational future to be
positive the curriculum must not only be local but also be globally
eclectic as well.
Following
this analysis, participants, using Tuvala as a case study, examined the
future of sovereignty in this small island nation.
The basic problem is that Tuvala's population is expanding at
such a high rate such that there will be not enough land for citizens
within 20-25 years. This
could be further exacerbated by sea-level rise. The alternatives
developed by participants were as follows:
1.
Redefine identity (expand it, for example).
2.
Rise of authoritarian governance (military rule) to deal
with population (forced sterilization) and other
crisis.
3.
Create a nation within Nation, for example, by buying land
in Australia.
4.
Encourage outmigration (the Hawaii case) so that Tuvala's population remains the same.
5.
Reclaim land.
6.
Buy an island elsewhere and move the entire nation there.
7.
Do nothing and disappear as a people.
8.
Pray for divine intervention.
Developing
on the above educational scenarios and sovereignty issues, participants
developed a range of recommendations based on their preferred vision for
the future. Each recommendation was assigned to a particular
participant. These were as
follows.
1.
That Luke Paeniu of Tuvalu request his national Government to
seek funding for:
(a)
a research project to develop alternative future scenarios for
atolls and other low-lying islands in the Pacific, given the probability
of sea-level rise;
(b)
a meeting of scientists, social scientists, particularly from the
Pacific, as well as appropriate government and non-government
organisations to explore alternative
futures for the physical and cultural survival of the Pacific
island populations.
2.
That Atu Lageretabua approach the Government of Fiji, through the
Ministry of Fijian Affairs, to:
(a)
seek funding for the projects in recommendaiton 1, above, and
(b)
seek agreement on terms and conditions for future development to
be agreed to among
commercial developers, land-owning units, the Fiji Native Land Trust
Board and the Government of Fiji.
3.(a)
That Pacific Governments, especially the Ministries of Education, and
teachers and curriculum developers organise conferences at local and
national levels, to examine and determine the current status of science
and vocational education in respective Pacific countries.
(b)
That UNESCO and other relevant aid agencies fund and coordinate a study
on the status of science and vocational education in the Pacific region,
the terms and references of
the study to be:
(i) to
collect, collate and analyse existing data;
(ii) to identify and
ascertain the current situation;
(iii) to anticipate future trends; and
(iv) to formulate a
report for presentation to a Pacific
regional
symposium.
(c)
That:
(i) Florence
Delimon raise recommendation 3(b) with UNESCO; and
(ii) Ron Crocombe
raise recommendation 3(b) with the meeting of UNESCO National
Commissions in the Cook Islands on July 12, 1993.
(d)
That agencies involved with the study recommended in 3(b) examine
the findings and recommend prioritised actions for the future.
4.
(a) That Pacific Governments introduce long-range futures studies into
the education planning
process.
(b)
That futures studies be incorporated into the curriculum,
especially history, after primary
studies.
5.
That Pacific Governments re-examine the current status of
maternity leave for teachers and the explore alternative child care
arrangements for workers, such as the provision of child care facilities
in or close to the work place.
6
(a) That Pacific Governments consider more closely the concepts of
retraining trainers in education, innovative approaches to teaching and
revolutionary alternatives to teaching methodology.
(b)
That teachers in the Pacific region establish a regional
Teachers'Institution.
The
course concluded with participants looking forward to other
opportunities to develop their foresight capabalities and for
suggestions on ways to convince their respective ministries to adopt a
proactive approach to governance.