Report
Of Unesco And World Futures Studies Course On Prospective Studies For
Policymaking
Sohail Inayatullah
Sponsored
by UNESCO in conjunction with the world futures studies federation and
coordinated by Professor Tony Stevenson of the Queensland University of
Technology, a one week course on prospective studies for policymaking was held
in Suva, Fiji from July 5-10.
The
13 participants represented Pacific island nations from the Cook Islands, Tuvula,
Tonga, Samoa, Papua and New Guinea, Fiji and Kiribati.
Resource persons for the course included retired director of the
Institute of South Pacific Studies Ron Crocombe and Sohail Inayatullah,
presently working as a political scientist and futurist in Hawaii. Florence
Delimon represented UNESCO at the meeting.
The
course was organized around three themes. The first was an introduction to
futures studies. This was done by examining emerging trends and possible world
futures and their potential impact on government policymaking in the Pacific.
Futures methods particularly emerging issues analysis and scenario building were
covered as well. These methods were
then used by participants in the creation of their desired futures for the
Pacific.
The
second theme was the future of sovereignty in the Pacific. The critical question
raised was: has political independence led to economic and cultural freedom or
has it created a new elite? The
third theme was the futures of education. Participants
developed four scenarios for education in the Pacific Islands. They were: a status quo scenario, a 40% budget cut scenario,
a high-technology scenario and a cultural revolution scenario.
An incasting exercise using the following variables: budget;
teacher/student ratio; infrastructure; curriculum; role of students; role of
teachers; key actors; and general image, helped to further refine the scenarios.
Participants
believed that the status-quo scenario reflected the present wherein students are
treated as commodities and teachers are forced into the role of wardens.
Curriculum design remains based on foreign colonial cultural categories.
The main actor in this scenario is the government and the image of
education is that of a prison system.
The
second scenario attempted to infer the status of the educational system if there
was a 40% cut in funding (from a long term recession or other factors).
Education in this scenario would be more focused on survival skills, it
was believed. Classes might be held
at community centers and at home instead of at schools. The role of the State in
determining curriculum would decrease as an informal system developed, most
likely spearheaded by the Church. Females
might remain in school while males would probably be needed in the agricultural
survival sector.
The
third scenarios assumed the existence of low cost high communications technology
allowing the Pacific to be intimately connected with the entire planet. Teachers
would become facilitators with the most important ratio that of student to
computer not student to teacher. Where individual computer ownership was
prohibited, there would be tele-cottages where interactive classes would be
held. While the image of education
would be learning/knowledge based where small would once again become beautiful,
participants feared that educational software would be monopolized by Japan or
China. Given the advantages to the North-East, Pacific educational
software design would find it difficult to enter this market.
Nonetheless, this scenario was considered a posiitve future, ripe with
possibilities for increased knowledge and greater community involvment.
The
final scenario stressed the role of Pacific cultural categories.
The question was what might education look like if it was designed in the
Pacific Way by Pacific islanders? In
general it was believed that the budget for education would go up substantially,
that Church and community would have a much stronger role in shaping the
nation's eduational policies and there would be numerous Pan-Pacific networks.
Finally, islanders would have a renewed sense of self and community as
their historical frames of knowing would be legitimated.
However, it was believed that for this educational future to be positive
the curriculum must not only be local but also be globally eclectic as well.
Following
this analysis, participants, using Tuvala as a case study, examined the future
of sovereignty in this small island nation.
The basic problem is that Tuvala's population is expanding at such a high
rate such that there will be not enough land for citizens within 20-25 years.
This could be further exacerbated by sea-level rise. The alternatives
developed by participants were as follows:
1.
Redefine identity (expand it, for example).
2.
Rise of authoritarian governance (military rule) to deal with population (forced sterilization) and other
crisis.
3.
Create a nation within Nation, for example, by buying land in Australia.
4.
Encourage outmigration (the Hawaii case) so that Tuvala's population remains the same.
5.
Reclaim land.
6.
Buy an island elsewhere and move the entire nation there.
7.
Do nothing and disappear as a people.
8.
Pray for divine intervention.
Developing
on the above educational scenarios and sovereignty issues, participants
developed a range of recommendations based on their preferred vision for the
future. Each recommendation was assigned to a particular participant.
These were as follows.
1.
That Luke Paeniu of Tuvalu request his national Government to seek
funding for:
(a)
a research project to develop alternative future scenarios for atolls and
other low-lying islands in the Pacific, given the probability of sea-level rise;
(b)
a meeting of scientists, social scientists, particularly from the
Pacific, as well as appropriate government and non-government organisations to
explore alternative futures for the
physical and cultural survival of the Pacific island populations.
2.
That Atu Lageretabua approach the Government of Fiji, through the
Ministry of Fijian Affairs, to:
(a)
seek funding for the projects in recommendaiton 1, above, and
(b)
seek agreement on terms and conditions for future development to be
agreed to among commercial
developers, land-owning units, the Fiji Native Land Trust
Board and the Government of Fiji.
3.(a)
That Pacific Governments, especially the Ministries of Education, and teachers
and curriculum developers organise conferences at local and national levels, to
examine and determine the current status of science and vocational education in
respective Pacific countries.
(b)
That UNESCO and other relevant aid agencies fund and coordinate a study on the
status of science and vocational education in the Pacific region, the terms and
references of the study to be:
(i) to collect,
collate and analyse existing data;
(ii) to identify and
ascertain the current situation;
(iii) to anticipate future trends; and
(iv) to formulate a report
for presentation to a Pacific
regional symposium.
(c)
That:
(i) Florence Delimon
raise recommendation 3(b) with UNESCO; and
(ii) Ron Crocombe raise
recommendation 3(b) with the meeting of UNESCO National Commissions in the Cook
Islands on July 12, 1993.
(d)
That agencies involved with the study recommended in 3(b) examine the
findings and recommend prioritised actions for the future.
4.
(a) That Pacific Governments introduce long-range futures studies into the
education planning process.
(b)
That futures studies be incorporated into the curriculum, especially
history, after primary studies.
5.
That Pacific Governments re-examine the current status of maternity leave
for teachers and the explore alternative child care arrangements for workers,
such as the provision of child care facilities in or close to the work place.
6
(a) That Pacific Governments consider more closely the concepts of retraining
trainers in education, innovative approaches to teaching and revolutionary
alternatives to teaching methodology.
(b)
That teachers in the Pacific region establish a regional
Teachers'Institution.
The
course concluded with participants looking forward to other opportunities to
develop their foresight capabalities and for suggestions on ways to convince
their respective ministries to adopt a proactive approach to governance.