Futures Studies and Action Research (Special Issue).
Edited by Jose M. Ramos (Center for Social Change Research,
Queensland U of Technology) and Sohail Inayatullah
(Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang U, Taiwan). Futures,
38:6, Aug 2006, 639-722 (8 papers).
1) Jose Ramos on dimensions in the confluence of futures studies and
action research (the two fields compliment each other by stressing
participation, social change, knowledge creation, systems thinking, complexity,
futures visions, democratic commitments, and social innovation); 2) Sohail
Inayatullah on "Anticipatory Action
Learning" (it differs from futures research by being less driven by expert
forecasts and more attuned to participatory learning and questioning; 3) Tony
Stevenson (Australia) on moving from vision to action as a key feature of
AAL (limitations include male machismo, false optimism, and groupthink
converging on the conventional wisdom); 4) Dennis List (U of South
Australia) on action research cycles for multiple futures perspectives (a
cycles-within-cycles-within-cycles process in a sequence of workshops can help
make explicit concealed forces affecting the future); 5) Erzsébet Nováky
(Corvinus U of Budapest) on action-oriented futures studies in Hungary (case
studies of vocational training, regional development, and national
social-economic development); 6) Patricia Kelly (Queensland U of
Technology) on helping engineering students to become sustainability
professionals (a reflective process and on-line support can contribute to a
learning oasis and development of Globo sapiens); 7) Peter Hayward
and Joseph Voros (Australian Foresight Institute, Swinburne U) on
introducing the social change theory of P.R. Sarkar to students in the AFI's
Masters in Strategic Foresight program through an action learning process; 8)
Sandra Janoff and Marvin Weisbord (Future Search Network,
Philadelphia) on the well-developed "future search" planning meeting, based on
Lewinian action research, that gets the "whole system" in the room and leads
people to create the future they most desire [ALSO SEE Future Search: An
Action Guide (Berrett-Koehler, 2nd edition,
2000; FS 22:6/298)]. (action
research)
The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an
Integrative and Transformative Methodology. Edited by Sohail
Inayatullah (Prof, Graduate Institute of
Futures Studies, Tamkang U; <ww.metafuture.org>). Taipai, Taiwan: Tamkang U
Press, Dec 2004/575p/$38pb.
CLA, first developed by Jim Dator's student,
Inayatullah, is described by Dator as "the first major new futures
theory and method since Delphi, almost 40 years ago…a very sophisticated way to
categorize different views of and concerns about futures, and then to use them
to help groups think about futures far more effectively." CLA consists of four
levels: 1) The Litany: quantitative trends and problems, often
exaggerated and used for political purposes, and often leading to a feeling of
helplessness or apathy (assumptions are rarely questioned); 2) Systemic
Causes: technical explanations and academic analysis based on social,
technological, economic, environmental, political, and historical factors (the
data are often questioned, but the language of questioning does not contest the
paradigm within which the issue is framed); 3) Legitimating Discourse/
Worldview: the deeper social, linguistic, and cultural processes and
assumptions (showing how the discourse we use is complicit in framing the issue
at the stakeholder, ideological, civilizational, and epistemic levels); 4)
Metaphor/Myth: the deep stories and collective archetypes (the frame of
questioning must enter other frameworks of understanding, e.g.: assumptions
about the nature of time, rationality, and agency). CLA can be used both in
academic settings and in action learning settings such as a futures workshop. "The
strength of CLA is its capacity to move beyond the superficiality of
conventional forecasting methods, insofar as these methods are often unable to
unpack worldviews, ideologies, and discourses." CLA can expand the range and
richness of scenarios, lead to more comprehensive strategy and sustainable
policy actions, assist organizational leadership, and develop community
capacity.
Essays are in three sections: 1) Methodological Comparisons:
Sohail Inayatullah on deconstructing and
reconstructing the future, Johan Galtung on the social costs of
modernization, Zia Sardar on medicine in a multicultural society, Rick
Slaughter on reconciling breadth and depth in futures inquiry, David
Turnbull on moral space futures and deep dialogue, Marcus Bussey on
critical spirituality; 2) Case Studies on Causal Layered Analysis:
Alan Fricker on genetic engineering in agriculture, Ivana Milojevic
on abundance and relative poverty and on hegemonic education discourses,
Marcus Bussey on unpacking educational futures, Jennifer Gidley on
global youth culture, Philip Daffara on sustainable city futures,
Patricia Kelly on "Futurelandia" as effectively colonized by scientists and
technologists (e.g., the Cosmic Evolution imagery on the Foundation For the
Future home page); 3) CLA as an Evolving Methodology: four
critical views and a 15-point response by Inayatullah.
[NOTE: Book-cover blurbs include Ted Gordon ("a liberating
method"), Peter Bishop ("a cornerstone of futures methodology"),
Graham Molitor ("pace-setting work"), and community futures practitioner
Katie Donnelly ("cutting edge, interior, in depth, and simple to master").]
(Causal Layered Analysis explained)
Transforming Communication: Technology, Sustainability, and Future
Generations. Edited by Sohail Inayatullah
(Prof of Future Studies, Tamkang U, Taiwan; the Communication Center, Queensland
U of Technology) and Susan Leggett. Praeger Studies on the 21st
Century. Westport CT: Praeger, Jan 2002/200p/$65.00;$25.00pb.
Chapters derived from the 1997 World Futures Studies Federation Conference in
Brisbane, titled "Global Conversations," on transformative scenarios,
alternative renderings of what it means to communicate, and the purpose of
communication. In general, "the ideals of the information society are eschewed
for the vision of a gaia of civilizations, of authentic global communication."
This means creating communication processes that are inclusive, especially in
ways of knowing "others" in society: women, the non-West, and most
significantly, future generations. Communication that is transformative
essentially rejects modernity--capitalism--as unstable, destructive of nature,
and oppressive. Transformation communication is future generations oriented,
inclusive of alternative ways of knowing, critical of technology, and based on
direct and structural free flows of ideas. The 17 essays include:
1) Anthony Judge on the quest for collective
well-being through conversation in the present moment; 2) Darren Schmidt
on departure from Western schools of thought that allows us to converse with
"pre-emanants" or "ghosts of the future"; 3) Jérôme Bindé on the ethics
of future generations (entailing a radical evolution in our understanding of
responsibility, precaution, and heritage); 4) Tony Stevenson on the
consequences of the Web for people, organizations, and communities, and the hope
for a "communicative age" rather than a mammoth global cybermarket; 5)
Sohail Inayatullah on transition from the
information era to a gaia of civilizations (the Web could participate in the
historical decolonization process giving power to communities and individuals…or
can it?); 6) Levi Obijiofor on the telephone as the most important future
vehicle of communication in Africa; 7) Rakesh Kapoor on two scenarios of
India in 2100: rule of the techno-brahmins vs. the less likely vision of global
partnerships (democratic, participatory, meritocratic, culturally diverse);
8) Ivana Milojevic on positive and negative aspects of communicating in the
information era; 9) Margaret Grace and June Lennie on creating empowering
online networks for women; 10) Alan Fricker on criteria for technology
that liberates (compatibility with natural processes, accessibility for all,
accountability to all).
[NOTE: Highly idealized, generalized, and righteous
visions, with few if any specifics on transition from the rejected present to
the desired future. Speaking of ethics, is this really helpful, or an
inadvertent barrier to effective normative futures-thinking?]
Islam, Postmodernism, and Other Futures: A Ziauddin Sardar Reader.
Edited by Sohail Inayatullah (Prof, Tamking U, Taiwan & U of the Sunshine
Coast, Australia) and Gail Boxwell (Exeter U). London & Sterling VA:
Pluto Press, March 2003/374p/$24.95.
A collection of Sardar's writings that
offer a comprehensive introduction to his thought. Selections are in three
parts:
1) Islam: rethinking Islam ("a serious attempt at
jihad, at reasoned struggle and rethinking, to reform Islam"),
reconstructing Muslim civilization as a dynamic problem-solving methodology,
permanence and change in Islam, the Shari'ah as the core worldview of Islam (a
system of ethics and values providing the major means of adjusting to change,
but it has been abused and misunderstood), Islam and nationalism as
contradictory terms, the potential of new information technologies for remaking
Muslim societies and culture, reformist ideas and Muslim intellectuals;
2) Postmodernism: modernity playing havoc with traditional cultures,
the next 50 years to be dominated by violent pendulum swings between modernism
and postmodernism (the world cannot be ruled by either extreme), Walt Disney as
the fast food of modern cinema (where we take on a refashioned, predigested
history, as in Pocahontas), Christian-Muslim relations in the
postmodern age, aliens and others in postmodern thought, Bosnia and the
postmodern embrace of evil ("today's victims of the west will become
tomorrow's demons of the west, and evil will have triumphed totally"), the
Rushdie affair as a clash of worldviews (militant and dogmatic secularism vs.
the religious worldview where freedom of thought and expression arise from the
sacred);
3) Other Futures: the futures studies problem (it has
been colonized by the west and "has become big business"), Asian cultures
between programmed and desired futures (three possible cultural scenarios for
the next 20 years: more-of-the-same, fossilization of alternatives, and
balkanization in China, India, and elsewhere), non-western cultures in futures
studies (bashing Francis Fukuyama, Paul Kennedy, and the World Future Society),
medicine in a multicultural society, an Islamic perspective on development, a
non-western view of chaos theory.
The 23-page introduction by the editors, entitled "The Other
Futurist," notes that "more than any other scholar of our time, Sardar has
shaped and led the renaissance in Islamic intellectual thought, the project of
rescuing Islamic epistemology from tyrants and traditionalists, modernists and
secularists, postmodernists and political opportunists." The editors go on
to describe Sardar's dislike of disciplines as artificial social constructions,
his constructive approach to rebuilding Muslim civilization and viewing Islam as
an ethical framework, his call for Islam to be reinterpreted for every epoch,
his response to Salmon Rushdie, and his goal to create intellectual and cultural
space for the non-west. Gail Boxwell concludes with an impressive 12-page
bibliography of Sardar's extensive writings in the 1976-2002 period, including
co-authorship of Why Do People Hate America (FS
25:3/124).
[NOTE: Some of these writings are quite possibly
a key to a positive and viable future for Muslims and Middle Eastern countries.
Inayatullah has performed a valuable service in bringing a selection of Sardar's
distinctive ideas together and identifying key themes. Sardar, the current
editor of Futures, should not be confused with the Indian philosopher
P. R. Sarkar (1921-1990), analyzed by Inayatullah in Understanding
Sarkar (Brill, 2002; FS
24:2/100).] (Ziauddin Sardar's writings analyzed)
Understanding Sarkar: The Indian Episteme, Macrohistory and
Transformative Knowledge. Sohail
Inayatullah (Mooloolaba, Australia; Tamkang U; Queensland U
of Technology; U of Action Learning; www.metafuture.org). Leiden, The
Netherlands: Brill, Jan 2002/366p/$49.00. (Order from <cs@brill.nl> or
<cs@brillUSA.com.>)
Inayatullah, author and
editor of a dozen books on futures topics, provides an extensive analysis of P.
R. Sarkar (1921-1990), a controversial Indian philosopher, guru, and activist. "On
one level we can boldly state that Sarkar's theory is more creative, inclusive,
and holistic than other attempts by macro-thinkers throughout history.
Within the Indian context, along with Gandhi, he stands out as the premiere
thinker of this last century, if not the past few hundred years." The
notion of opposites is central to his metaphysics, and his rationality is
grounded in a universal humanism, or "neo-humanism" that has as its goal a
consciousness personally considered as blissful, beyond pleasure and pain. To
Sarkar, modernity is the irrational, and the rational leads to the
spiritual--the maximization of individual and collective "happiness." To create
a new culture, a new map of knowledge is required that frames self, society,
Other, nature, and the transcendental.
In 1955, Sarkar began his spiritual
organization Ananda Marga (or The Path of Bliss), and a few years later he
started Renaissance Universal and the more directly political PROUTist
Universal. Until his death in 1990, Sarkar remained active in Calcutta composing
over 1000 songs of the new dawn, giving talks on spiritual life, lecturing in
over 120 languages on spiritual and social theory, providing leadership and
managing his organizations, and helping to create self-reliant ecological
communities.
Chapters discuss Sarkar's unique contributions, PROUT strategy (a
central element is movements that organize the oppressed), Sarkar in the context
of the Indian episteme (the goal of his theory is to create a condition where
the physical, social, and cosmic worlds are in harmony), Sarkar's theory of
history (the classic cyclical historical viewpoint, with the possibility of
spiritual and economic transformation allowing an exit from history), Sarkar in
the context of other macro-historians, and his social laws critiqued from
various positions.
[NOTE: An impressive tour de force, clearly enabling an
appreciation of a significant but completely non-Western worldview in several
dimensions. Also see the chapter on Sarkar in Macrohistory and
Macrohistorians: Perspectives on Individual, Social, and Civilizational Change
edited by Johan Galtung and Sohail
Inayatullah (Praeger, 1997; FS
19:11/501). Sarkar's texts are available at <www.prout.org>.
Another recent Inayatullah
project is the editing of Vol 4 of The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies
on a CD from the Futures Study Centre in Australia [available from the WFS
Bookstore for $60.00] with all four volumes. The first three volumes, published
in 1996 and totalling 1,187 pages, survey foundations, organizations, practices,
and outlooks; see FS
18:10/452-454). Vol 4, What Futurists Think, provides 108
brief autobiographical entries by a wide range of futurists, such as S. Amin, C.
Bezold, E. Boulding, Y. Dror, M. Garrett, T. Gordon, R. Eisler, L. Jennings, E.
Masini, P. Mettler, etc., each explaining what has been influential, how they
work, and their views on forces shaping the world.] (P. R. Sarkar
explained
A Society for All Ages (Special Issue).
Edited by Sohail Inayatullah
(Prof of Futures Studies, Tamkang U, Taiwan) and Colin Blackman (Foresight
Editor). Foresight: The Journal of Futures Studies, 5:6, 2003/76p
(available at <www.emeraldinsight.com/ft>).
A conventional view of the aging of the population focuses on older people
and their future needs. A futures approach views aging populations as an
important issue for everyone in society. This report includes four "stimulus
papers" prepared for the Queensland Government in Australia (a futures
perspective, a youth perspective, an aging perspective, and a planning
perspective) as part of its project Queensland 2020: A State for All Ages. The
project posed two questions: What opportunities and challenges will arise for
the government in responding to aging of the population? What are the key
elements of a future policy environment that supports a confident
intergenerational approach?
Inayatullah presents four
scenarios: 1) A Society for All Ages (smart and caring ageing
driven by social values); 2) A Society Divided by Ages (driven
by demographic imperatives and business as usual); 3) Virtual Worlds
(driven by technology and anomie); and 4) Governmentalised
(ageing bureaucracies and bureaucracies for the aged, driven by politics). The
preferred scenario reflects the views of cultural creatives who
envision gender partnership, ecological sustainability, personal spirituality,
and a caring interventionist state committed to promoting life-long learning
opportunities for all ages. That group is in contrast to traditionals
(who align with a strong nation-state and patriarchy) and modernists
(who prefer technology and materialism). Other topics: three intersecting
concepts of justice as a framework for planning (intergenerational equity,
gender equity, and social equity), City of the aged vs. City of all ages, and
women's working futures.
Phillip Daffara (U of the Sunshine Coast) notes that "Research
from the urban planning field indicates that if neighborhoods are physically
planned for older people they work for everyone…Communities planned with
older people in mind are also more ecologically sustainable. They rely less
on car transport, focus more on the creation of walkable mixed-use village type
living, and recognize the social importance of neighborhoods. Communities
planned with a recognition of the special needs of older people emphasize
intergenerational social contact and capital and are as a result more socially
sustainable." [ALSO SEE Ageing, Housing and Urban Development
(OECD, 2003; FS
26:2/066).]
(planning for aging society)
Youth Futures: Comparative Research and Transformative Visions.
Edited by Jennifer Gidley and Sohail
Inayatullah (Visiting Prof,
Dept of Futures Studies, Tamkang U, Taiwan). Westport CT: Praeger, Sept
2002/266p/$64.95.
Youth worldwide are struggling to make sense of a world that has lost its
meaning for them. In a time of the most rapid change known to history, the line
between adapting and falling off is a very fine one. Too little attention is
given in policy-making and education to the hopes and fears of young people.
Topics include trends and challenges of cultural breakdown (four forces of
change: self-centered egoism compromising needs of family and community,
colonization of the imagination, secularization of culture, and environmental
degradation), multiple perspectives on youth futures, partnership education for
the 21st century (by Riane Eisler), decolonizing ways of learning and
research, neglect of future generations in school curriculum, optimistic visions
from Australia, Japanese youth rewriting futures in the "no taboos" postbubble
millennium, images of the future held by young Finns, youth in Singapore
(showing "a remarkable readiness to conform to visions of the future elaborated
by their ruling government"), future orientation of Hungarian youth, youth
perspectives in the UK, youth culture in Norway, holistic education and visions
of rehumanized futures, human development as a basis for positive future images,
development of futures education practice, re-imagining your neighborhood to
help students develop a greater sense of hope and possibility, the Creating
Preferred Futures project for children and youth, gathering student opinions on
futures work, future visions from 25 students in a small rural Queensland high
school, and teaching futures studies to young people (case studies from five
countries). (youth views of future)
Futures Research Methodology--Version 2.0 Edited by
Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon (AC/UNU Millennium Project;
<www.acunu.org>). Washington: American Council for the United Nations
University, July 2003/c700p CD-ROM/$45.95. [Available from WFS Bookstore]
"The purpose of futures methodology is to systematically explore, create,
and test both possible and desirable futures to improve decisions. It
includes analysis of how those conditions might change as a result of the
implementation of policies and actions, and the consequences of these policies
and actions. Futures research can be directed to large or small-scale issues, in
the near or distant future. It can project possible, probable, or desired
conditions. It is not a science; the outcome of studies depends on the methods
used and the skills of the practitioners. Its methods can be highly quantitative
or qualitative. It helps to provide a framework to better understand the
present and expand mental horizons." The use of futures methods enhances
anticipatory consciousness, which in turn improves the foresight to act faster
or earlier making the organization or individual more effective in dealing with
change. "The value in futures research is less in forecasting accuracy, than
in usefulness in planning and opening minds to consider new possibilities and
changing the policy agenda."
The first version of this series, with 18 chapters, was written as part of
the UNU Millennium Project Feasibility Study in the early 1990s. The Millennium
Project became operational in 1996, and additional funding to produce this
second 2.0 version was provided by the US Army Environmental Policy Institute.
The 2.0 version has 27 chapters, mostly by Glenn and/or Gordon: environmental
scanning, the Delphi method, the Futures Wheel, trend impact analysis,
cross-impact analysis, structural analysis, the systems perspective, decision
modeling, statistical modeling, technology sequence analysis, relevance trees
and morphological analysis, scenarios, interactive scenarios, participatory
methods, simulation and games, genius forecasting and vision, normative
forecasting, S&T road mapping, field anomaly relaxation, text mining for
technology foresight, agent modeling, State of the Future Index (SOFI) method,
full-scale implementation of SOFI, the multiple perspective concept (by Harold
A. Linstone), a toolbox for scenario planning (by Michel Godet), causal layered
analysis (by Sohail Inayatullah),
and frontiers of futures research methods. (methods of futures research)
Viable Utopian Ideas: Shaping a Better World. Edited by
Arthur B. Shostak (Prof of Sociology, Drexel U). Armonk NY: M. E. Sharpe,
Feb 2003/295p/$22.95pb.
"Viable utopian ideas are an energizing resource for helping meet the
never-ending challenge to `complete the work,' an artful combination of dream,
detail, and determination." Our dreams help us focus beyond the present,
and require us to define what we are really seeking. The task is a moving
target, with each generation defining it and pursuing it anew, in every area of
life. The 47 brief essays, in 14 parts, serve to introduce this many-faceted
subject. 1) Challenges: Personal in Nature: private dreams and
collective ideals, obstacles on the path to a viable utopia (why altruism is
considered deviant behavior, while materialism and egoism are seen as basic
aspects of human nature); 2) Challenges--Conceptual in Nature:
Michael Marien on trends in betterment thinking and recent betterment
proposals (also in The Futurist, March-April 2002), Joseph F. Coates
on utopia as an obsolete concept (would-be utopians must supply complex and
detailed images if they are to have any credibility in directing the evolution
of society), Tsvi Bisk on the value of vision and the rehabilitation of
utopian thought, Roger Kaufman on the importance of being able to define
and measure a clear vision; 3) Methods: Even Better Tools:
Ross Koppel on modest steps toward an ideal world, Lane Jennings on
the value of utopian poetry (including three of his poems from Virtual
Futures, 1996; FS
18:10/457), Harris Sokoloff on rethinking rules of engagement by
building common ground, Robert Merikangas on the utopian university of
the people that helps create better lives for all of us.
4) Methods: Information Technology: human utopia and the web,
how the Internet will revolutionize democracy by making government smaller and
more localized, the new meaning of "the Collective." 5) Looking Inward:
understanding opposing viewpoints, co-creating a utopian world with the "mirror
effect"; 6) Looking Homeward: utopias and city planning,
distributed floating cities as a laboratory for exploring social utopias
(hundreds or thousands of self-supporting and eco-friendly floating cities
across the planet), the vision of Resort Circles (a network of communities
bringing together the best elements of an ecovillage, a small college, and a
modern resort), the effect of technology on the meaning of home;
7) Schooling Possibilities: the utopian public school of tomorrow,
neo-utopian ideas to reform delinquency programs (e.g., a Youth Center with
counselors as friends); 8) High-Schoolers on Utopia: visions
from a class of 25 Pennsylvania students, personal visions by two teenagers;
9) Choices: Very Personal: a transformative view of nine abortion
possibilities, overcoming challenges that keep males and females apart,
Wendell Bell on choosing your future (by considering what is possible,
probable, and preferable, and then pursing your goal with tenacity).
10) Choices: Societal: building deserving organizations, the
social democratic society that unions can build with greater public wealth for
all, Jon Van Til on utopian conceptions of the voluntary sector;
11) Nation-Building Aids: cultivating the possibilities of grassroots
movements, survival of a traditional non-Western culture in Yap, national
policies to prevent ethnic conflict, a proposed World Senate with nine elected
members from each of the world's 15 regions [also see proposal for a Global
People's Assembly, FS
25:1/005] and a World Corps Academy; 12) The Big Picture: Global
Transformation: Jacque Fresco and Roxanne Meadows on
social design for a global civilization, soft solutions for hard problems,
Sohail
Inayatullah on P.R. Sarkar's eutopian PROUT vision of
the future [see FS
24:2/100]; 13) Looking Forward: combining a spiritual
perspective with social action in the developing world, creating a US Department
of Peace; 14) Drawing It Together--and Moving On: our future as
a species, prospects for immortality, utopias and dystopias in outer space. [NOTE:
A bountiful buffet of ideas for college students, clearly showing that utopia
ain't what it used to be. Each essay has a brief introduction, and appendices
suggest follow-up reading and web sites. An earlier volume of 44 essays edited
by Shostak, Utopian Thinking in Sociology (American
Sociological Association, July 2001; FS
23:7/344), overlaps only slightly with this volume, which claims 42 of the
47 essays published here for the first time.] (utopian ideas for a
better world)
Teaching Futures Studies (Special Issue). Edited by
Sohail
Inayatullah. Journal of Futures Studies
(Tamkang U, Taipei, Taiwan; <www.ed.tku.edu.tw/develop/JFS>), 7:3, Feb 2003,
pp1-64.
Nine articles from a Nov 2002 International Conference on Teaching Futures
Studies at Tamkang U:
1) James Dator (U of Hawaii) on lessons from 35
years of futures teaching: few futurists have fully develop theories of social
change and stability, futures continues to be dominated by Western and male
views, "futures studies" does not study the future but only "images of the
future," most people get into futures believing that it is possible to predict
the future (and some persist in that notion);
2) Natalie Dian (Vision
Center for Futures Creation, Sweden) on re-thinking how and why adults should be
educated for the future through futures studies;
3) Fabienne Goux-Baudiment
(euroProspective, France) on the need and feasibility of an open university for
futures studies in Europe;
4) Graham H. May (Leeds Metropolitan U, UK) on
lessons from 25 years of futures teaching: it is great fun, it may be more
successful to build futures up by contributing to other disciplines (a
stand-alone MA is a high-risk strategy), ways must be found to exploit the clear
student interest in futures;
5) Christopher B. Jones (U of Houston, Clear
Lake) on the strengths and weaknesses of the pragmatic UHCL program ("the future
of the program is still unclear") contrasted with the theory-focused U of
Hawaii-Manoa program;
6) Sohail
Inayatullah (Tamkang U & U of the Sunshine Coast) on
five main pillars of futures studies that define the field: macrohistory,
anticipation, alternatives, ways of knowing, and transformative knowledge
(visioning desired futures, action learning);
7) Ryota Ono (Aichi U,
Japan) on the values from teaching futures studies in Singapore and Japan
(options, an open mind, possibilities and hope);
8) Patricia Kelly (U of
the Sunshine Coast, Australia) on accommodating the apparent demands of
market-driven education systems without losing the value base of futures
thinking; 9) David Hicks (Bath Spa University College) on a rationale for
a futures dimension in the school curriculum (pupil motivation, anticipatory
skills, critical thinking, clarifying values, creative imagination, a better
world). [ALSO SEE: Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher
Education
Questioning the Future: Futures Studies, Action Learning and
Organizational Transformation. Sohail
Inayatullah (Visting Prof, Tamkang
U; <s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au>).
Taipai, Taiwan: Tamkang U Center for Futures Studies <future@mail.tku.edu.tw>,
March 2002/240p.
"Futures studies is the systematic study of possible, probable, and
preferable futures, including the worldviews and myths that underlie each future."
The reasons behind this study are not only academic but about transforming the
future, so that a more sustainable world can be created. Chapters describe
differences between futures studies and policy analysis, types of futures
studies (predictive, interpretive, critical, anticipatory action learning),
scenarios as the foundational method, causal layered analysis (opening up past
and present to create alternative futures, communicating futures in
cross-cultural environments, future generations thinking (a values-based
intergenerational approach committed to the planetary family), macrohistory and
the future [see Galtung and Inayatullah,
eds, Macrohistory and Macrohistorians, Praeger, 1997; FS
19:11/501], tips and pitfalls of the futures trade (patience, real
participation, alternative scenarios, preferred vision, metaphors, eclecticism),
trends in futures studies (toward anticipatory action learning, complexity, and
moral futures), using the future to transform organizations, Q&A for the busy
manager who does not see the value of futures thinking, action learning among
all stakeholders (enabling wiser outcomes because goals are negotiated by
participants), layered questioning (a reflexive process of opening up spaces),
creating a learning organization (constantly challenging predictions or
providing alternative predictions), change fatigue and the emotive dimension
[see
24:5/249], necessities to create a successful future (leadership, action
learning, scanning for context, inclusion of stakeholders, evaluation,
contingency plans). [NOTE: Swings massively between complex and
simple, macro-historical and highly practical. The 34-page annotated
bibliography continues in the same vein, bringing together the new and (mostly)
old, as well as profound and trivial items.]
(futures studies and organization change)
Futures of Futures Studies (Special Issue). Edited by
Richard Slaughter (Swinburne U, Melbourne). Futures,
34:3/4, April-May 2002, 239-363.
Assembles nine contrasting overviews:
1) Wendell Bell (Yale
U) on criticisms of futures studies by Michael Marien and others, futures
studies compared to established disciplines, the community of futurists, a
transdisciplinary matrix for futures studies, the growth of intellectual capital
in the field, criteria for who is a futurist, and prospects for futures studies
(they "may be bright, contingent upon expanding the presence of futures studies
in the curricula of colleges and universities throughout the world");
2)
Eleonora Barbieri Masini (Gregorian U, Rome) on a vision of a
humanistic future by examining the futures of cultures, promoting
futures-thinking for school children (an area that needs to develop greatly in
the next 50 years), considering women's contribution to building a different
society, and promoting cultures of peace;
3) Michael Marien (FS)
on the disabling myths of futures studies (that it is a field, that it does what
no one else does, that most futurists are generalists, that FS is a
community rather than multiple communities, etc.), the six basic categories of
futures-thinking and 115 terms that have been used (the "Five P's and a Q"
include Probable futures, Possible futures, Preferable futures, Present changes,
Panoramic views, and Questioning), 12 generic continua on which futures-thinkers
can be located (as regards culture, style, disposition, time-frame, ideology,
identity, grounding, rigor, etc.), and a "reality-based vision" for promoting
futures studies (a shared vision, emphasis on a serious global information
system, a widespread and evaluated academic presence, multiple excellences,
"second profession" recruitment, a respected public presence, adequate funding)
[request reprint from <mmarien@twcny.rr.com>];
4) Eva Hideg
(Budapest U) on the two paradigms of futures studies (futures research based on
the criteria of classical science and futures studies which is more
culture-based) and on evolutionary futures studies and critical futures studies;
5) Sohail Inayatullah:
on the evolution of futures studies in five areas: from forecasting to
anticipatory action learning, from reductionist to complex analysis, from
horizontal to vertical methods of futuring, from short-term empiricist research
to the return of long-term history, and from scenario development to moral
futures [i.e., "better futures" - see
24:4/195];
6) Marcus Bussey: on the need for futures studies
to incorporate into its methods and practices a sense of mystery founded on a
critical spiritual sensibility (visioning and imaging workshops are growing in
power and sophistication);
7) H. A. Linstone (Portland State U)
on long waves, corporate planning, three multiple perspective types (Technical,
Organizational, Personal), and implications of the fifth long wave upswing based
on infotech;
8) Andy Hines (Dow Chemical) on the confluence of
organizational needs and futures studies strengths (four key needs are to be
more future-oriented, to think more deeply and systematically, to be more
creative, and to better deal with change);
9) Richard Slaughter
on the rise of futures studies in the last half century, the civilizational
challenge (rejection of the industrial flatland, the ideology of economic
growth, technological narcissism, and short-term thinking), and strategies for
"futures studies as a civilizational catalyst" (shared meta-goals, de-colonizing
futures knowledge and building up non-Western approaches to understanding,
community access to foresight, design of foresight cultures in organizations and
societies, raising the profile of professional standards in futures work, a
quantum jump in use of FS in educational contexts, taking Ken Wilber's Integral
Vision "very seriously," designing institutions of foresight for the well-being
of humankind, etc.; the central task for the futures community is to turn
attention away from obsolete industrial era patterns to "the task of envisioning
and designing the structural underpinnings of the next level of human
civilization." [NOTE: Much to choose from as to what is
happening and what ought to be done.] (futures of futures studies)
Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Education.
Edited by James A. Dator (Director, Hawaii Research Center for Futures
Studies, U of Hawaii). Praeger Studies on the 21st Century. Westport
CT: Praeger, May 2002/409p/$69.95;$27.95pb.
Chapters written by 29 people from 12 different countries, describing the
theories and methods underlying the courses they teach in futures studies.
1) Overviews and Histories: Wendell Bell on the
systematic study of possible/probable/preferable futures; Eleonora Masini
advocating closer cooperation between social sciences and futures studies;
Reed Riner on the future as a sociocultural problem; W. Warren Wagar
on the role of history in future studies; Richard Slaughter on the
foundations of critical futures studies; Sohail
Inayatullah on multicultural
futures;
2) Explaining and Defining: Peter T. Manicas on the
asymmetry of explanation and prediction; Peter Bishop on social change
and futures practice; Erzébet Nováky on changes in the image of the
future and in education; Éva Hideg on the transformation of futures
research in Hungary; Mike Mannermaa on evolutionary perspectives in
futures studies; Jan Huston on maximizing evolvability; Kaoru
Yamaguchi on future-oriented complexity and dynamism;
3) Courses and Methods: Ikram Azam on futures studies
in Pakistan; Kuo-Hua Chen on futures studies in Taiwan; Markku
Sotarauta on teaching a future-seeking communicative policy process;
Graham May on his course in foresight and futures studies at Leeds
University; Sam Cole on global issues and futures for planners,
Christopher Jones on futures as autobiography; Jordi Serra on
concepts and methods; Anita Rubin on images of the future as tools for
coping; Paul Wildman on consulting and teaching futures studies through
the World Wide Web; David Hicks on post-modern education requiring
teaching in a spirit of hope and optimism; Oliver Markley on his
graduate-level course about visionary futures;
4) Concerns and Issues: Ian Lowe on incorporating
futures visions into teaching; Arthur Shostak on co-creating a futures
course with working-class union members; Ernest Sternberg on diagnosing
global change; William Halal on the transition to a technical world of
great complexity and change.
[NOTE: The most extensive collection of essays on teaching
futures studies ever assembled. However, all of these essays (except two by Azam
and Chen) were published in a special issue of American Behavioral Scientist
(Nov-Dec 1998; FS
20:11/550) and have not been updated. One can readily agree with Dator that
"it is proper that futures studies become a normal, widely accepted part of each
university everywhere on the planet" and that "a futures orientation should be a
specific part of all academic endeavors." But there is no assessment or even
speculation here as to whether futures literacy courses are expanding in number
and quality, and in fact having any influence in "advancing futures."] (futures
studies courses)
The Futures of Development: Selections from the
Tenth World Conference of the World Futures Studies Federation. Edited
by Eleonora Masini (Gregorian U, Rome), Jim
Dator (U of Hawaii), and Sharon
Rodgers (U of Hawaii). Paris: UNESCO Future-Oriented Studies
Programme (Bureau of Studies and Programming), Aug 1991/491p(8x11).
Selections from the biggest WFSF conference ever, held in
Beijing (PRC) in September 1988, are in ten sections:
1) Future of the
Future: Johan Galtung on the decline in futures studies, Harlan
Cleveland on the ingredients of success, Renée-Marie Croose Parry on the need
for futures studies to make the leap toward pro-existence;
2) Norms and
Values of Development: J.C. Kapur on the decline of consumerist
utopias, Walter M. Kroner on the architect's power to design our future, Anthony
M. Mlikotin on sources of the future in human nature, Radmila Nakarada on
principles of balanced development (balancing the possible and desirable, the
traditional and modern), Satish C. Seth on futures consciousness, Henryk
Skolimowski on building quality of life and ethical values into models of
sustainable development, Ibrihim Abdel Rahman on development and cultural
identity;
3) Culture: Eleonora Masini on alternative cultural
futures, Benjamin T. Hourani on post-industrial society and Third World
development, Sohail Inayatullah on PROUT (Progressive Utilization Theory) as a
viable strategy to transform the capitalism system, Bart van Steenbergen on the
influence of the East on cultural renewal of the West, Wu Xiaolong on political
culture as key to the world future;
4) World Economy: James
Brock on applying futures studies in business ventures, Anna Coen on scenarios
of consumption and employment in Italy, Jiri Farek on technological progress in
developing countries, Brian Murphy on macromarketing and development, Kaoru
Yamaguchi on a paradigm shift in economics that moves beyond Toffler's Third
Wave;
5) Environment and Development: Raimondo Cagiano de
Azevedo on the growing importance of population issues, Nandini Joshi on the
charkha (hand-spinning wheel) way of altering the techno-economic process, Hwa
Yol Jung and Petee Jung on "ecopiety" as a new ethic for securing a safe future,
Eugene B. Williams on effective health care, Jerzy A. Wojciechowski on
globalization from the ecology-of-knowledge point of view;
6) Rural and
Urban Development: Tibor Hottovy on spatial impact of new technology in
Sweden, James Robertson on investment in local economic self-reliance, Ibrahim
Jammal and Michael Gurstein on reversing inequities in rural-urban development,
Mesbah-us-Saleheen on future urban growth in Bangladesh;
7) High and
Traditional Technologies: Bao Zhong-Hang on outer space as the
fundamental way out for humankind, Deng Shoupeng on ten high-tech industries of
the future, Qin Pinduan on the future impact of robots, Ana Maria Sandi on
impact studies of high technologies, Tony Stevenson on policy issues for
communicating in the Pacific, I.G. Ushkalov and B.A. Kheifets on the challenge
of the technical revolution, Clement Bezold and Robert Olson on alternative
futures for infotech and the information industry in 2000;
8) Changing
Political Institutions: Yehezkel Dror on 8 proposals to upgrade
capacity of central minds of government to engage in social architecture and 22
principles for advanced policy reasoning, Gong Xiangrui on the long-range goal
of building a socialist political system with a high degree of democracy, Jiang
Shunxue on the military future in China, A.J.N. Judge on governing sustainable
development through metaphor, Tetsuo Ogawa on the future of Japan beyond the
hegemonic state, Hiroshi Ouchi on the Asian Pacific system in 2000, Tuk Chu Chun
on prospects for a Korean confederation as an interim arrangement for
reunification;
9) Education, Women, Children: Ruthanne
Kurth-Schai on children's images of the future, Mitsuko Saito-Fukunaga on the
future for Japanese women, Allen Tough on nine goals for the next 100 years,
Xiao Qi-hong on cultivating capable people in China, Rick Slaughter on the
premises and promises of Critical Futures Study, William H. Boyer on a proposed
"universal curriculum" grounded in human rights. Concludes with working group
reports on development values, culture, world economy, ecological development,
rural-urban development, political institutions, education (with notes on four
generations of futurists), women, children, and entrepreneurship. [NOTE:
West meets East in perhaps the most diverse futures compendium ever; frequently
idealistic, but a useful contrast to the generally more short-term thinking of
the UNDP Round Table, above.]
(WFSF Beijing Conference proceedings)
.Humanity 3000: Seminar No. 2 Proceedings. Foundation For the
Future. Bellevue WA: FFF (www.futurefoundation.org), Aug 2000/373p/$10.00
($20.00 outside US).
The Foundation, established by inventor/businessman Walter P.
Kistler in 1996, seeks to promote scholarly research to better understand the
factors that have an impact on the quality of human life and the long-term
survivability of humanity. Following the first seminar in April 1999 [see
Seminar No. 1
Proceedings, Fall 1999;
FS
22:1/005], this second seminar held in September 1999 continues to ponder
issues on the thousand-year future of humanity.
Three fishbowl discussion groups
focused on the roles and definition of science and the future role of
technology, the concept of conscious evolution (and the notion of
thrival as better than mere survival),
and how to educate broadly enough and fast enough. In imaging life in the year
3000, participants shared such commonalities as massive communications
capabilities, space colonization, breakdown of the nation-state, artificial
intelligence, widespread boredom, and extended human life span.
Differences centered on optimism vs.
pessimism, virtual reality vs. reality, democracy vs. dictatorships, humans vs.
synthetic or enhanced people, linguistic diversity vs. one language, and
positive technology vs. failed technology. Discussion topics of greatest
interest to participants centered on evolution, governance/ethics, humans,
science/technology, and sustainability.
The bulk of the Proceedings, as before, are devoted to a
transcript of the discussions. An initial 58-page section reproduces prepared
statements by the 27 participants on the factors most critical to long-term
survival, the greatest potential in your field, and the desired vision of the
1000-year future. Some selected comments: Olugbenga Adesida desires
development of a global ethics based on a compact for equity and justice, and
effective global governance.
Ed Ayres focuses on solving the puzzle of
mass-denial--the pervasive unwillingness to deal with the global threats we face
(which will probably require "a fundamental redesign of the information
environment").
Wendell Bell seeks to increase knowledge of what is
possible, probable, and preferable through futures studies.
Clement Bezold
emphasizes just, efficient, and sustainable use of resources, and development of
shared global visions toward a world that works for all humans and supports all
life.
Eric J. Chaisson considers evolution and energy [see
23:5/250] and speculates that the next great evolutionary leap forward for
our civilization might well be "ethical evolution" by development of a planetary
culture.
Clement C. P. Chang expresses concern about distributive
injustice and conflict between rich and poor.
David E. Comings foresees
virtual eradication of all diseases and virtual elimination of aging, with
longevity over 200 years and limitless energy from nuclear fusion and other
technologies.
Christian de Duve, concerned with the ever-accelerating
growth of knowledge and power, argues that "humanity is fated to exercise
increasing control over its own future and that of life on Earth."
Jay W.
Forrester states that "population growth will determine the future
well-being of humanity" and that "the future will be one of increasing turmoil
and conflict as different societies compete for limited environmental
opportunities."
Susantha Goonatilake foresees fresh Asian
(non-Eurocentric) initiatives in a few decades on the implications of technology
and what defines the human condition.
Sohail
Inayatullah
points to a multicultural/civilizational ethic, global governance, a Gaian
approach to nature, and local decentralized economies.
Anthony Judge
proposes development of a language and mode of dialogue appropriate to working
collectively with the ecology of fundamental differences ("there is a
widespread, misguided belief in the adequacy of existing language").
Peter H.
Mettler thinks it most important that humanity develops a general code of
conduct to avoid the suicide of the species.
Francisco Sagasti keys in on
the search for a new program to orient the direction of human evolution over the
next several centuries; the Baconian program has run its course.
Elisabet
Sahtouris insists that long-term survival is questionable, and "everything
depends on what we do in the next few years, the next decade, and in the rest of
the first century of the millennium"; this involves understanding cosmic
creativity and living systems, and making the shift to caring and sharing.
Ziauddin Sardar hopes for evolution of a multicivilizational world and new
pragmatic modes of dissent. Gregory Stock sees a robust future for
humanity and little that can derail the rapid advance under way. Brian Swimme
views the greatest potential before us as reinventing the human being.
Crispin Tickell hopes for a
greatly reduced population of responsible citizens of diverse
quality of life and culture, in harmony with their natural surroundings. Also
includes abstracts of 31 background papers, most not by participants in this
Seminar.
(2nd
Humanity 3000 seminar)
Coherence and Chaos in Our Uncommon Futures: Visions, Means, and Actions.
Edited by Mika Mannermaa (Turku School of Economics), Sohail
Inayatullah (Queensland Institute of Technology) and
Rick Slaughter (U of Melborne). Turku, Finland: Finland Futures Research Center
(Turku School of Economics, PO Box 110, FIN-20251), June 1994/337p.
Selections from the XIII World Conference of the World Futures
Studies Federation, held in Turku in August 1993. Includes Peter M. Allen on
chaos and evolution, Jim Dator on the future of culture (betting on the rise of
Confucian cultures and the precipitous decline of Western civilization), Sohail
Inayatullah on chaos and general evolutionary theory, Tae-Chang
Kim on a HAN philosophical perspective (HAN being the essence of Korean
mentality, integrating monism and dualism), Pentti Malaska on the late-modern
dilemma of progress, Mika Mannermaa on alternative futures perspectives on
coherence and chaos, Ziauddin Sardar on non-Western cosmological views of
coherence and chaos and the need for holism, Sam Cole and Victoria Razak on the
futures of cultural complexity in "time-bomb" (cultural polarization) and
"time-share" (cultural pluralism) scenarios, Auli Keskinen on time bombs of our
time (wicked problems that need defusing, such as population growth), Laurence
A.G. Moss on rapidly growing amenity migration as a concept beyond tourism,
Brian Murphy on rehumanizing economics through sustainable business, Alexander
Tomov on the beginning of a new epoch in the development of mankind (based on
disintegration of the bipolar world pattern and transition to new global
structures), Ron Crocombe on potentials of Pacific Island micro-cultures,
Susantha Goonatilake on globalization and localization, Eleonora Barbieri Masini
on technology and culture, Paul Smoker on prospects for peace in the 21st
century, Helmut Gross on the lost myth of progress, Partow Izadi on the
evolution of values, Anthony J.N. Judge on human values as attractors, Riitta
Wahlström on global crisis and education for environmental responsibility, Janne
Hukkinen on cognitive mapping of expert scenarios on waste management, Vuokko
Jarva on female futures studies, Lester W. Milbrath on the societal impacts of
chaos in the climate system, and Tony Stevenson and Lyn Simpson on creating
futures through the misunderstandings between uncommon cultures. [NOTE: An inadvertent demonstration
of intellectual chaos, with no attempt at fashioning any overall coherence.]
(WFSF
1993 Conference Proceedings)
Communication Futures (Special Issue). Edited by
Sohail
Inayatullah (Communications Centre, Queensland U of
Technology) and Tony Stevenson (Director, Communications Centre;
President, World Futures Studies Federation).
Futures,
30:2/3, March-April 1998, 107-265. A colloquium of brief thoughts on
anticipating issues for the study of human communication is followed by 12
papers and essays, an annotated bibliography of 27 items, and a single book
review. Topics include:
1) Greg Hearn and Tony Stevenson on
tensions in communications theory and the potentials of action research;
2)
Michael R. Ogden on Pacific island countries avoiding the apparent devil's
choice between jumping on the high-tech bandwagon (and being subsumed by Western
cyberculture) and withdrawing from the techno-world (thus falling even further
behind) by somehow ensuring that telecoms empowers them in preserving their
culture;
3) Levi Obijiofor on the role of infotech in Africa's future
development (arguing for accessible and culturally significant low-cost
technology);
4) Anthony J.N. Judge on songlines of the noosphere and the
global configuration of hypertext;
5) Tony Stevenson on the concept of
netweaving (in preference to networking) and four scenarios for global
communications and information [see FSA96/13874];
6) Majid Tehranian and
Michael R. Ogden on the changing communications environment and various
global futures scenarios;
7) Johan Galtung on the future of information
and communication in modernity (arguing that "disinformation society" and the
"disinformation toll road" are taking shape around us, and that we can expect
"an increasing disinformation overload";
8 ) Sohail
Inayatullah on
deconstructing the information era (arguing that information theory ignores
civilization and spiritual perspectives, that information society is merely
capitalism disguised, that we are moving toward temporal and cultural
impoverishment, and that authentic global conversations are needed). (essays
on communications futures)
Law and Technology (Special Issue). Edited by Jim Dator and
Debora Halbert (both Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, U of Hawaii).
Tech. Forecasting and
Social Change, 52:2-3, June-July 1996, 101-268.
The 11 essays are arranged in four sections:
1) Electronic Technology
and the Future of Law: M. Ethan Katsh on the impact of
cyberspace on lawyers and the practice of law [see his book,
FS 18:7,
#96-334], Michael R. Ogden on the problems and potentials of cyberdemocracy,
Alan Gaitenby on legal questions posed by the new social spaces in cyberspace
(MUDs and MOOs), Debora Halbert on alternative futures for intellectual property
law (business as usual, the hacker future of free information, and a shared
future that eliminates the idea of "private property"), Sohail
Inayatullah
and Jennifer Fitzgerald on legal scenarios raised by genetic science (law as
supporter of the genetic revolution, the law as conservative guardian of social
welfare, the legal system replaced by rapidly changing "fast law," new legal
solutions and a new ethical discourse based on a more holistic vision of the
world);
2) The
Future of Crime and Criminal Justice: the late Richter H. Moore
Jr on the menace of 21st century organized crime that requires an international
response [also in
Futures Research Quarterly, Spring 1995;
FS 17:11,
#95-511], James D. White on the fear of international crime leading to expansion
of the global police force;
3) Court Administration
and the Future: James E. McMillan on new technologies to assist
courts and judges (such as the possibility of Standardized General Markup
Language), Donald C. Dahlin on technology impacts, William Earle Klay and James
D. Sewell on a democratic communitarian approach to technology (one that
improves policing, corrections, and the courts);
4) 21st Century Law and
Technology (see below). [NOTE:
A broad-ranging view of legal futures; should be read by every lawyer.] (technology
and criminal justice)
Learning and Teaching About Future Generations (Special Issue).
Edited by Richard A. Slaughter (Futures Studies Centre, Kew, Victoria,
Australia) and Allen Tough (Prof, U of Toronto-OISE).
Futures,
29:8, Oct 1997/695-768.
Future generations consist of real people who have not yet been
born, who are unable to lobby or vote today. It is crucially important for us to
understand their perspectives and their needs. How can we help students and
adults to learn about future generations and their neglected perspective, in a
variety of formal and informal settings? These nine papers were presented at a
small October 1995 conference in Toronto, sponsored by the Future Generations
Alliance Foundation in Kyoto, which has sparked futures generations conferences
in more than 20 cities around the world [ALSO SEE earlier volumes from FGAF,
FSA96/13382-13383].
Topics include
Richard Slaughter
on FGAF work in progress and a national foresight strategy for future
generations,
Sohail Inayatullah on future
generations thinking (invoking commitment to the family and all sentient beings,
an intergenerational approach, enhancing wisdom, a global focus, etc),
Allen Tough
on what future generations might say to us (they would ask us to care deeply and
feel connected to them),
Oliver W. Markley
and Sandy
Burchsted on adults and children experiencing the needs of
future generations through "visionary futures exploration,"
Jerome C. Glenn
on ethical and psychological issues in teaching futures studies,
Budd Hall
and Darlene
Clover of the OISE Transformative Learning Centre on
environmental adult and popular education to reconnect with nature.
[NOTE:
Alternatively, a better definition of "future generations" would include those
who have
been born, but are still too young to lobby and vote. Doing so connects with the
many groups concerned about children's welfare, and invites learning about
today's kids as a precursor to unborn generations, e.g.
20:1/025. Not doing so invites a parochial dead end. ALSO SEE:
Future Generations and
International Law, edited by Emmanual Agius
et al.,
(London: Earthscan, Jan 1998/222p/18.95pb).]
(future
generations learning)
The Futures of the UN in Emerging World Orders,
Sohail
Inayatullah (The Communication Centre, Queensland U of
Technology), Journal
of Futures Studies, 1:1, Nov 1996, 27-50. (Available from Division
of Futures Studies, Educ. Development Center, Tamkang U, Tamsui, Taipai, Taiwan;
e-mail: lin9015@mail.tku.edu.tw)
A survey of literature on the future of the UN as seen by
idealists (P.R. Sarkar, Robert Muller), structural-functionalists (Zenia Satti),
realists (Coral Bell, Frank Ching), and historical-structuralists (Immanuel
Wallerstein, Crane Brinton). Main reform options include: 1) transforming the
Security Council to make it more representative; 2) changing the structure of
power within the UN; 3) democratizing the UN by diluting the veto and/or
allowing for some expanded role for NGOs; 4) making the UN more accountable and
responsive; 5) rethinking the peacekeeping function; 6) strengthening the UN
with more funding; 7) transforming the UN into a world government that denies
national sovereignty when necessary.
[NOTE:
Initiation of this new futures journal in Taiwan is most welcome. Address
inquiries to Jyh-Horng Lin, Director of the Division of Futures Studies. ALSO
SEE: World
Futures and the United Nations: An Annotated Guide to 250 Recent Publications
(WFS, 1995; FS
Annual 1996 #13350), with 23 abstracts from
FS on UN
reform, and others illustrating ten different ways to think of world futures.] (UN
reform options)
The Self in Global Society,
Walter Truett Anderson (Meridian International Institute, San Francisco),
Futures,
31:8, Oct 1999, 804-812.
Author of
The Future of the Self:
Inventing the Postmodern Person (Tarcher/Putnam, Dec 1997;
FS
20:8/367) notes that "we live in a furiously fragmented age" where
"proliferating information and increasing specialization make it difficult--and
not very profitable--to be a generalist." We are also moving into a
post-identity society, in which people's ideas about selfhood and personal
boundaries are much different than in the recent past. Two recurrent themes in
the new postmodern psychology are that identity is a social product, and that
most of us in postmodern societies find it difficult, if not impossible, to
create and maintain a single, stable personal identity. The currently unfolding
processes of psychological change and globalization might take two different
paths:
1) One
World, Many Universes: a world without boundaries, where most
people have many identities and social roles, but no particular attachment to
any of them; nationalism has lost its emotional force and people are freer to
move with a relaxation of immigration laws; all of the major religions become
true "world religions" no longer identified with a specific culture or
geographic region and many people identify with more than one religion;
2) Back to Basics:
an anti-globalist movement spreads and eventually becomes a more powerful force
than Marxism; a global ideology of "devolution" is warmly greeted by radical
Green parties, but the ideology is seized upon with even greater enthusiasm by
religious fundamentalists, ethnic nationalists, political conservatives,
fascists, and neo-fascists (devolution is highly contagious because it offers
clear and stable identities with a strong sense of "us" and "them"). It "seems
highly likely that the near-term future will bring us a tumultuous combination"
of these two scenarios.
Four other articles follow (pp813/834) in this Symposium on The
Postmodern Person and Futures of the Self.
Sohail
Inayatullah (Queensland U of Technology) posits
three scenarios of the future: the future as "schizophrenia" (an onslaught of
technology shrinks space and time, selves implode, and nothing and everything is
real when nature has ended; the "postmodern liberal" scenario of floating selves
and fundamentalist selves; a "struggle with bliss" where selves are complex and
layered. Rafael Echeverria (Caracas, Venezuela) argues that we must
generate a new "common sense" for the new global world, where we acknowledge
that we are all different observers. Sarah Ruth van Gelder (Executive
Editor, Yes! A
Journal of Positive Futures) looks at the emergence of the Cultural
Creatives who are building stronger communities and working to preserve
ecosystems. Sean Cubitt (Liverpool John Moores U) comments on the shift
from mediated to distributed self. (futures
of the self)
The Morning After (Special Issue). Edited by Ziauddin Sardar
(editor, Futures).
Futures: The Journal
of Policy, Planning and Futures Studies, 32:1, Feb 2000, 1-102.
We have entered the new (western) Millennium, and the
interconnected, hypercomplex future is beckoning us. Several regular
contributors to
Futures were asked about their personal visions for the next
century--what they would like to see beyond the hangover of "the morning after."
Sohail
Inayatullah (Queensland U of Technology) sees the
West as ubiquitous, but wonders whether hegemony will continue. Four
alternatives for the West are a dramatically aging population (with immigrants
required for survival), genocide against the Other (the West becomes
authentically multicultural), the high-tech Artificial Society (the most likely
scenario, where diversity and the Other are pushed back), or a preferred
500-nation scenario in the context of a strong world government focused on human
rights.
Bruce E. Tonn (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) proposes a "noble"
and necessary research agenda to ensure the future: imagine sustainable
cultures, design future-oriented institutions, develop long-term decision-making
methods, create facilitative research systems, develop whole system designs, and
identify leverage points for change.
Jerry Ravetz (Research Methods
Consultancy, London) looks at the fault-lines of globalized civilization: the
corruptions of "meretricity," runaway technology, hypercomplexity, technocracy
(a society run by science-based experts), and the "vast and accelerating shift
in consciousness now taking place" (reality has become problematic for the first
time in centuries).
Richard A. Slaughter (Prof of Foresight, Swinburne U,
Australia) argues that the Western worldview of material growth is defective
because it cannot be maintained in the long term, and that modern technologies
do little or nothing for the problems of human existence; rather, we should
understand how healthy cultures work, promote progressive social values, regard
people as "layered beings," and create institutions of foresight to re-direct
the overheated global megaculture toward more life-affirming paths.
Tony
Stevenson (President, World Futures Studies Federation) favors comparison of
traditional mindsets with alternative ways of knowing, a coexistence of multiple
and diverse forms of inquiry, thinking across epistemologies, and developing
envisioning methods and techniques that can help imagine compelling visions of
the future. (personal
visions for the new century)
The Futures of Cultures. Coordinated by Eleonora Masini
(Gregorian U, Rome). Paris: UNESCO Future-oriented Studies, Dec 1994/167p.
A synthesis of The Futures of Cultures project begun in 1990,
with a selection of the most pertinent regional contributions, revised and
updated by their authors. They include Denis Goulet on threats to diversity in
Latin America, Rodolfo Stavenhagen on cultural struggles in Latin America, Ashis
Nandy and Giri Deshingkar on the "onslaught of the dominant global culture,"
Susantha Goonatilake on the futures of Asian cultures between localization and
globalization, Ziauddin Sardar on tension and conflict between tradition and
modernity in Asia, Sohail
Inayatullah on disintegration and reintegration of
Asian cultures, Kazuo Mizuta on scenarios of Japanese cultures, Godwin Sogolo on
scenarios of African cultures, and Augusto Perelli and Abdelkader Sid Ahmed on
the western Mediterranean.
Masini sums up this thinking in five scenarios: 1)
the pessimistic
scenario in which all cultures become bastardized, or reduced to a
harmless "museum" role;
2) the
continuity-in-change or
dual-track scenario, where core elements of the culture remain
strong;
3) the
resistance scenario, where the many cultures fend off the dominant
ones;
4) the
Gaia
scenario, where all cultures recognize that no culture is complete
in itself;
5) the
jungle/babel scenario, fostered by communication technologies and
biotechnologies. Concludes that "in the future, it will be increasingly common
for people to live simultaneously within several different cultures," with
individuals constantly reassessing who they are and what they value.
[ALSO SEE:
The Futures of
Culture, Vol. I (UNESCO, Dec 1991;
FS Annual 1993
#11544) and Vol.
II (March 1992).] (cultural
futures)
Creating a New History for Future Generations. Edited by
Tae-Chang Kim (President, IISFG) and Jim Dator (U of Hawaii). Future Generations
Studies Series II. Kyoto: Institute for the Integrated Study of Future
Generations, Dec 1994/349p/$15.00pb.
Selected papers from the November 1994 "First Global Future
Generations Kyoto Forum," seeking to collect, coordinate, and encourage academic
and activist projects on behalf of future generations.
1) Why and How We Must
Take Action: Sohail
Inayatullah
on "future generations" as a more enduring metaphor than "the 21st century,"
Christopher Jones on threats to future generations, Godwin Sogolo on Africa's
battle for mental decolonization, Alexandre Timoshenko on the need to
incorporate the new intergenerational ethics into laws and institutions, Duane
Elgin on awakening the media on behalf of future generations, Christopher Stone
on the Maltese proposal at the 1992 Earth Summit to establish a guardian to
speak for future generations, Ana Maria Sandi on gender equity to help future
generations;
2)
What Is Now Being Done: Nicholas Albery on imaginative ideas and
projects as islands of hope, Rick Slaughter on institutions of
foresight, Wendell Bell on the liberation of women as a benefit for future
generations, Martha Rogers on the processes of learning about the world of today
and tomorrow, Natalie Dian and Christel Nilsson on futures projects in Sweden;
3) Philosophical
and Ethical Issues: Ernest Partidge on the need for a moral
overhaul, Keekok Lee on notions of reciprocity and equilibrium, Norman Care on
the motivation problem, Salvatore Privitera on the principle of impartiality,
Tae-Chang Kim on a new theory of value for the global age. (future
generations essays)
ALSO SEE
Tips and Pitfalls of the
Futures Studies Trade by
Sohail
Inayatullah (foresight,
2:4, Aug 2000, 369-374), who lists some critical points based on 20
years of futures research and consulting: 1) timing and learning patience
(futures-oriented projects take time to materialize); 2)real participation (all
stakeholders must be involved for effective scenario planning); 3) the
importance of scenarios (they help in early warning, clarifying alternatives,
and managing complexity); 4) developing a preferred vision (it provides the glue
that creates community); 5) using metaphors or big picture stories (perhaps the
best way to enter alternative future realities); 6) eclectic methods (mixing
quantitative and qualitative, short range and long range, predictive and
critical, depth and breadth); 7) being prepared for surprise (best done by
searching for the "unofficial future" on the margins); 8) implementation (how to
use futures to change the organization; it is best done when there is deep
participation); 9) finally, "the future must be periodically questioned." (unlearning
organizations)
Futures Studies in Higher Education. Edited by Jim Dator
(Director, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, U of Hawaii).
American Behavioral
Scientist (Sage Pubs; 805/499-9774), 42:3, Nov-Dec 1998, 293-554;
$11.00 single issue.
Essays by 26 futurists from 10 different countries on the
theories and methods underlying the courses they teach in futures studies at the
university level. Contributors include Jim Dator on the courses he has taught
since the 1960s, Wendell Bell on the systematic study of
possible/probable/preferable futures, Eleonora Masini advocating closer
cooperation between social sciences and futures studies, Reed Riner on the
future as a sociocultural problem, W. Warren Wagar on the role of history in
future studies, Richard Slaughter on the foundations of critical futures
studies, Sohail
Inayatullah
on multicultural futures, Peter Manicas on the asymmetry of explanation and
prediction, Peter Bishop on social change and futures practice, Erzsébet Nováky
on changes in the image of the future and in education, Éva Hideg on the
transformation of futures research in Hungary, Mika Mannermaa on evolutionary
perspectives in futures studies, Jan Huston on maximizing evolvability, Kaoru
Yamaguchi on future-oriented complexity and dynamism, Markku Sotarauta on
teaching a futures-seeking communicative policy process, Graham May on his
course in foresight and futures studies at Leeds University, Christopher Jones
on futures as autobiography, Jordi Serra on concepts and methods, Anita Rubin on
images of the future as tools for coping, Paul Wildman on consulting and
teaching futures studies through the World Wide Web, David Hicks on postmodern
education requiring teaching in a spirit of hope and optimism, Oliver Markley on
his graduate-level course about visionary futures, Ian Lowe on incorporating
futures visions into teaching, Arthur Shostak on co-creating a futures studies
course with working-class union members, and William Halal on the life cycle of
evolution and "the inevitable transition to a technological world of
unfathomable complexity and change."
[NOTE: Unlike the volume of women
visionaries that claims to be diverse while being pretty much of one voice
(above), this volume suggests unity but presents a broad diversity of views
reflecting the Babel of various academic languages.]
(teaching
futures studies)
Macrohistory and Macrohistorians: Perspectives on Individual, Social, and
Civilizational Change. Edited by Johan Galtung (Prof of Peace
Studies, U of Hawaii) and Sohail
Inayatullah
(Sr Research Fellow, Communication Centre, Queensland U of Technology). Westport
CT: Praeger, Oct 1997/274p/$65.00.
Macrohistory is ambitious, focused on the stages of history and
the causes of change through time. The ideas and lives of 20 macrohistorians are
analyzed: Ssu-Ma
Ch'ien on cycles of virtue,
St. Augustine on the river to
judgment and then eternal bliss or damnation,
Ibn Khaldun
on the strengthening and weakening of
asabiya
(human unity),
Giambattista Vico on fluctuations between reason/wisdom and
barbarism/selfishness,
Adam Smith
on upward progress from nomadic hunters to capitalism,
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel on
dialectics and the world spirit,
Auguste Comte
on three stages of history (theological, metaphysical, and positivistic),
Karl Marx
on six techno-economic stages from primitive communism to full communism,
Herbert Spencer
on progress from barbarism to industrial society and then an altruistic world
without government,
Vilfredo Pareto on cycles of
democracy and autocracy,
Max Weber
on history as interplay of rationalization and charisma,
Rudolph Steiner
on history as development toward emancipation and freedom (involving seven macro
stages, seven cosmic periods, and seven epochs).
Oswald Spengler
on maturation and decay of cultures,
Pierre Teilhard de
Chardin on five ascending stages from cosmogenesis to the
noosphere,
Pitirim Sorokin on dynamics of cultural mentalities
(ideational/ascetic, sensate/act8ive, idealistic),
Arnold Toynbee
on challenge and response from genesis through dissolution,
Antonio Gramsci
on materialist evolution from secular liberalism to socialism/communism,
Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar
on Progressive Utilization Theory (PROUT) and four stages of the social cycle,
Riane Eisler
on shifts between male dominator and gender partnership over time, and
James Lovelock
on the Gaia hypothesis and planetary evolution.
An Appendix provides a very
useful pictorial representation of the 20 theories.
Inayatullah compares the
macrohistorians, finding that the model of four or the double dialectic is
central. Galtung distills key points and contradictions that each macrohistorian
could teach and learn from others, and describes social macrohistory as metaphor
for world macrohistory ("their warnings on what can go wrong should be taken
seriously"). In the introduction, Galtung asks why there is so little
macrohistory (or
nomothetic generalizing), and answers that it is intellectually
difficult and it is politically problematic (unlike the history taught in
schools, it does not provide identity, dedication, and optimism). The
macrohistorian also has a strong personality, coming on top of God or in place
of God. "The macrohistorian is to the historian what Einstein or Hawking is
for the run-of-the-mill physicist. It is certainly not a very modest enterprise."
[NOTE:
An awesome analysis, worthy of its immodest topic.] (20 macrohistories compared)
Utopian Thinking in Sociology: Creating the Good Society. Syllabi and Other
Instructional Materials. Edited by Arthur B. Shostak
(Prof of Sociology, Drexel U, Philadelphia). ASA Resource Material for Teaching.
Washington: American Sociological Association (www.asanet.org;
202.383.9005ext389), July 2001/225p(8x11)/$20.00 ($16.00 for ASA members).
In the introduction to this collection of 44 contributions,
Shostak complains that sociology textbooks lack any reference to utopias or
dystopias, and speculates that this unjustified neglect is due to writers who
think the subject is passe, who may fear association with the stigmatized
"S-word" (socialism), who think utopias are an uncomplicated warm nest that
excludes the real world, or who wish to dwell on social pathologies instead of
sources of strength and fulfillment. Some selected contributions:
#1) Michael
Marien (editor,
Future Survey) seeks to redefine utopia for the 21st
century, lists 35 ways to express idealistic/preferred futures, describes three
broad trends in betterment thinking (from fiction to non-fiction, from whole
society to sectoral proposals, from public sector to private sector action), and
argues that sociology and society would benefit from systematically collecting
and assessing the many research-backed ideas for social betterment;
#2) Ivana
Milojevic (U of Queensland) considers common themes in feminist utopias,
Elise Boulding's image of the coming of The Gentle Society, and Riane Eisler's
notions on transformation to a partnership society;
#3) Ivana Milojevic
and Sohail
Inayatullah
(Queensland U of Technology) point out that Western science fiction does not
express the categories of the non-Western world and that it needs to be rescued
by its own paradigmatic blinders and one-culture hegemony;
#4) Tsvi Bisk
(Kfar Saba, Israel) argues that "having
a vision and being a realistic visionary are absolute necessities for
functioning as a rational human being," and that futurism should
serve as a foundational building block of a Neo-Utopianism;
#5) Richard
Slaughter (Swinburne U, Australia) criticizes the "long tradition" of
technophilic and naively optimistic views in American futurism, the binary
future of polar choice between optimism and "Terminator Two" visions, and the
many oversights of SciFi dystopias, and calls for "an
advanced futures discourse that can critique and re-shape existing agendashe
task is about letting go of industrial models, values, priorities and structures
across the board and opening to the wider processes of transformation";
#6) Kathleen L. Pereles (Rowan U, Glassboro NJ) considers the elements of
a "utopian" workplace;
#7) Wendell Bell (Yale U) assesses the problems of
sociology (warring camps and proliferation into isolated subgroups) and urges
sociologists to adopt a post-positivist theory of knowledge, to take prediction
seriously (even though "futurists are not primarily interested in predicting"),
to explore features of the good society and become an "action science," to help
create a world moral community, to adopt a holistic/transdisciplinary view, to
view the future as open, and to define society as "expectation and decision."
Also includes 6 case studies of utopian projects (e.g. the Israeli Kibbutz, The
Venus Project of Jacques Fresco), 11 reflections on teaching utopian material, 4
syllabi from current courses, 10 college student essays, and several
bibliographies. [NOTE:
Many good ideas outweigh ASA's poor production job.] (utopia
for sociology teachers)
The University--Alternative Futures (Special Issue). Edited by
Sohail
Inayatullah
(Noosa Institute for the Future) and Jenny Gidley (Director, Spirit of
the Times: International Educational Initiatives, NSW, Aust).
Futures,
30:7, Sept 1998, 589-747.
The modern university stands at the gateway of a range of
futures. These essays consider four trends that promise to transform its nature:
globalism (the university as a business), multiculturalism, virtualization (the
promise of the net), and politicization, and new models of who teaches, who
learns, and what is taught through what medium.
Tom Abeles (Sagacity Inc,
Minneapolis) views the university as a dynamic and evolving industry in a wired
world, with the emergence of global Megauniversities, a rise in academic
superstars, the majority of faculty as mentors, and academic research
restructured into institutes.
Jim Dator (U of Hawaii) asserts that "it
is the urgent and largely unfulfilled task of all education to help us learn how
to govern evolution"; established academic disciplines thus will not
and cannot continue to play the rock bottom central core role they play at
present.
Paul Wildman (Brisbane, Aust) maintains that learning
institutions will have to become "polyphonic multiversities" endorsing multiple
and sometimes conflicting ways of knowing.
Michael L. Skolnick (OISE/ U
of Toronto) summarizes major themes in the literature of higher education in the
21st century (extensive use of infotech, learning networks,
transition from teaching to learning, economizing faculty time, pressure for
institutional survival, consumer-centrism).
Peter Manicas (U of Hawaii)
envisions the radical restructuring of higher education, whereby most of it will
be electronically delivered. Shahrzad Mojab (OISE/U of Toronto) examines
education in the Middle East as a struggle for democratization and autonomy of
the university from the power of the state. Tariq Rahman (Quaid-I-Azam U,
Islamabad) views Pakistani universities as still existing in the middle of the
19th century, and proposes reforms to transform the colonial legacy.
Pai Obanya (UNESCO Regional Office for Education, Dakar) considers an
approach to transform African universities to "development-oriented"
institutions. Ivana Milojevic describes the ideal women-friendly
university.
Marcus Bussey sketches an ideal Tantra University based on
Proutist economics, neo-humanism, ecology, microvita theory, etc. Patricia A.
Nicholson (Associate Dean of Education, Stanford U) speculates on higher
education in 2030 pursuing two new models of experience camps (where the arena
for learning is community service) and advanced learning networks (for expansion
and dissemination of information, skills, and knowledge).
Pentti Malaska
et al.
describe the Finland Futures Academy, founded in 1997, as a new type of
networked academic teaching medium and learning environment working in agreement
and cooperation with Finnish universities. [NOTE:
A broad-ranging and stimulating collection of trends, forecasts, and idealisms
for universities worldwide, in rich and poor nations.]
(university
futures worldwide)
Co-Creating a Public Philosophy for Future Generations. Edited
by Tae-Chang Kim (President, Institute for Integrated Study of Future
Generations, Kyoto) and James A. Dator (Director, Hawaii Research Center
for Futures Studies, U of Hawaii). Praeger Studies on the 21st
Century. Westport CT: Praeger, Aug 1999/284p/$65.00;$24.95pb.
Recent discussions about why we need to be aware of our
obligations to future generations fall into four categories: the "fairness"
obligation (not imposing risks on FGs that present generations would not
accept), the "maintaining options" obligation (giving to our posterity future
worlds that are as free of human-made constraints as possible), the
"quality-of-life" obligation (insuring that FGs enjoy all the most important
aspects of life), and Wendell Bell's argument for humility (humble ignorance
ought to lead present generations to act prudently). "Future-oriented
public philosophy and behavior does not imply an argument for or against
specific policies towards the future, but rather is a way of ensuring that the
needs of future generations are specifically taken into account whatever
policies are made in all areas." After a Jan 1996 symposium in
Hawaii, sponsored by the Future Generations Alliance Foundation in Kyoto,
participants were asked how to articulate public philosophies and provoke
behavior responsive to needs of FGs.
The 20 essays include:
1) Walt Anderson
on an imaginary dialogue in the Athens Hilton between himself, Jim Dator, and
Socrates, on a futures-responsible public philosophy;
2) Fred W. Riggs on eventual
transformation to an "ultra-democratic" polity with public agencies explicitly
seeking to protect the interests of the unborn with the equivalent of
environmental impact statements;
3) Takeshi Sasaki
on the need for an organization independent of the nation state to represent
weak claimants with strong claims such as FGs;
4) Martha J. Garrett
on the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development enabling a
rational basis for thinking about what we really owe to future generations;
5) Jordi Serra
on developing a culture of consequences, where all of us recognize our
responsibility towards the future;
6) Kjell Dahle
on five possible strategies for transformation to responsibility for FGs;
7) Xinning Song
on the Chinese government's 1996 decision to promote social, ethical, and
cultural progress;
8) Barry O. Jones
on making the Australian government more future-oriented;
9) Clem Bezold
on experiences with "anticipatory democracy" in the US;
10) Christa Slaton and
Theodore Becker on "enlightened democracy" as the best nurturer
for FGs;
11)
Sohail
Inayatullah
on inclusiveness of the Other, deep democracy, and finding ways for global
conversations of cultures;
12) Wendy Schultz
on organic leadership, servant leadership, and accountable leadership;
13) Bruce E. Tonn
on a scenario of a Court of Generations interacting with a four-chamber Futures
Congress of the North American Affinity States Collaborative;
14) Devin Nordberg
on a vision of global democracy by 2020.
Causal Layered Analysis: Poststructuralism as
Method, Sohail
Inayatullah
(Noosa Institute for the Future, Australia),
Futures,
30:8, Oct 1998, 815-829.
Futures studies is divided into three overlapping dimensions:
empirical, interpretive, and critical. Causal layered analysis (CLA), offered
here as a new futures research method, is well situated in critical futures
research, a tradition concerned with creating distance from current categories.
In this poststructural critical approach, the task is not prediction or better
definition of the future, but, at some level, to "undefine" the future. The
poststructural futures toolbox includes deconstruction (breaking apart
components of a text), genealogy (discerning which discourses have been
hegemonic), distancing (through scenarios or utopias), alternative pasts and
futures, and reordering knowledge to bring a different dimension to the future.
Deconstructing conventional metaphors through a civilizational perspective, and
then articulating alternative metaphors, becomes a powerful way to critique the
present and create the possibility of alternative futures. CLA assumes that the
way in which one frames a problem changes the policy solution, and asks us to go
beyond conventional framings constricted by worldviews, metaphors, and myths. It
has been successfully used in a variety of workshops and futures courses over
the last six years, and is best used prior to scenario-building.
Benefits of CLA
include expanding the range and richness of scenarios, inclusion of different
ways of knowing, use by a wider range of individuals, and policy actions
informed by alternative layers of analysis. Five case studies are provided of
CLA applied to futures of the UN, the traffic problem in Bangkok, the Faculty of
Education at Southern Cross University, senior management at SCU, and the
Queensland Advocacy for people with disability. (undefining
futures through CLA)
Futures Studies: Methods, Emerging Issues and Civilizational Values--A
Multimedia Reader (CD-ROM).
Sohail
Inayatullah (s.inayatullah@qut.edu.au)
and Paul Wildman. Brisbane, Australia: Prosperity Press
(pwildman@powerup.com.au; fax 61.7.3266.7570),1998/US$55.00(Aust$80).
A CD-ROM with sections on methods used by futurists (visioning
workshops, foundational futures concepts, scenario development), emerging issues
that may dramatically change our lives (global governance, imagining a world
without weapons, questions facing future generations, the partnership society,
governing evolution, the rights of robots, the futures of Gaia), how different
civilizations view the future, and a "futures galleria" of future-oriented
artworks.
Also includes feminist science fiction, over 100 Web addresses, a
futures listserve enabling interactive conversations, and author profiles and
interviews of such notables as Elise Boulding, Jim Dator, Riane Eisler, Johan
Galtung, Hazel Henderson, Eleonora Masini, Ashia Nandy, Zia Sardar, Rick
Slaughter, and Immanuel Wallerstein. [NOTE:
Heavy emphasis on preferable futures and alternative futures. For a very
different CD-ROM, with greater emphasis on descriptive or probable futures and
applications to decision-making, see
Futures Research
Methodology by Jerome C. Glenn (Washington: Millennium
Project/American Council for the UN University, 1998/$45.95, 40% discount for 10
or more copies), with sections on environmental scanning, the Delphi method and
trend impact analysis (by Theodore J. Gordon), participatory methods, decision
modeling and scenarios (by The Futures Group International), normative
forecasting (by Joseph F. Coates), and integration of forecasting methods.]
(futures
methods CD-ROMs)
Rescuing All Our Futures: The Future of Futures Studies. Edited
by Ziauddin Sardar (editor,
Futures).
Praeger Studies on the 21st Century. Westport CT: Praeger, March
1999/258p/$65.00;$24.95pb. (Published in UK by Adamantine Press.)
Sardar announces that "The
future is being colonized and futures studies has become an instrument in that
colonization." Technological trends dominate the business of
forecasting, which is "spreading like a global fire," and forecasting is one of
the major tools by which the future is colonized. No matter how sophisticated
the technique, forecasting simply ends up by projecting the selected past and
the often-privileged present on to a linear future. "Surviving
the future involves confronting the deterministic, Western future and altering
the political and intellectual landscape of the future." In
liberating the future, the non-Western project must raise the
future-consciousness of communities, articulate visions of desirable societies,
and involve citizens in efforts to shape their own futures. Futures studies must
function as an intellectual movement rather than a closed discipline, work to
oppose the dominant politics and culture of our time, and resist and critique
science and technology, globalization, and deterministic projections. "The next
century belongs to Asia in general and India and China in particular," but
intellectuals in non-Western societies must take the future seriously or become
prisoners of someone else's future.
Eleonora Masini explains the evolution of futures
thinking, the importance of desirable visions (based on a knowledge of possibles
and probables), futures thinking as learning, and projects of action for the
future.
Other essays include
Sohail
Inayatullah on the genuine non-western future
offered by Indian activist and philosopher P.R. Sarkar, Ivana
Milojevic on feminizing futures studies to overcome "the masculinist
colonization of the future," Susantha Goonatilake on de-westernizing
futures studies (non-Westerners must capture the high group of imagination, both
to free themselves and to realise themselves socially), Richard A. Slaughter
on implementing critical futures studies (realizing the natural capacity of the
human brain to envisage a range of futures), S. P. Udayakumar on futures
facilitators and reinventing futures studies ("any
attempt at rescuing all our futures must involve resisting nationalized and
globalized futures by challenging the imposed spatial arrangements, time-order
and herd instincts"), Graham H. May on approaching the future
as a learning process that welcomes ideas invented elsewhere, Ted Fuller
on various views of futures studies (as alternative thinking and critique, as
worldviews, as guardians of future generations, as forecasting and planning),
Jan Nederveen Pieterse on global futures, Anne Jenkins and Morgen
Witzel on co-evolutionary futures, Steve Fuller on the future of
science, Ashis Nandy on the Satanism of our times and the complicity of
modern science in the contemporary conspiracies against the poor and the weak,
and a bibliographic essay by Merryl Wyn Davies to counter the "technology
fetish that so dominates the output of the Washington-based World Future
Society" and The
Encyclopedia of the Future [21:6/259],
viewed as a "grotesquely mindless celebration of the Pax Americana".
[NOTE:
The essays range from modest pleas to truly consider alternative futures to
angry denunciations of what is conveniently demonized as homogeneous and
hegemonic Western thought. One hopes the quality of this dissent can be raised
to a higher level in the future by specifying the evil colonizers, rather than
condemning Western future studies as a whole. Overly generalized criticism
throws a lot of babies out with the bathwater, provides a convenient excuse not
to read many dissenting authors of note, and totally misses great globe-shaping
debates (e.g., on sustainability and the new economy) that deserve non-Western
participation.]
(non-Western
futures)
The Futures of South Asia (Special Issue). Edited by Sohail
Inayatullah (Honolulu HI).
Futures,
24:9, Nov 1992, 851-955.
Sankaran Krishna considers India's oppressive pasts and proposes
a confederation of autonomous provinces in the subcontinent as a way of
"re-imaging the sub-continent."
Sohail
Inayatullah offers five scenarios
of Pakistan's future: a disciplined capitalistic society as in South Korea,
Islamic socialism committed to distributive justice, the pure ideal of the
Islamic past as gateway to the future, the end of sovereignty (Pakistan's
greatest dystopia is being devoured by India), and more of "the grand
dis-illusionment" (continuing the general malaise, with the power structure
appearing unchangeable).
Qazi Ahmad discusses policies and
strategies for sustainable development in Bangladesh (success requires strong
political commitment and wide cultural acceptance).
B.M. Sinha
anticipates the coming Shudra or proletarian revo-lution that will lead to an
era of progress in India and elsewhere [ALSO SEE Sinha's book,
FS Annual 1993
#11629]. Barun
Gurung explains sustainable develop-ment in the Eastern
Himalayas based on Buddhist values.
Johan Galtung
("an honorary South Asian") compares India and the EC as superpowers in the
post-cold-war world ("both India and the EC will embark on the way to superpower
status; in fact, they are already quite advanced").
Nandini Joshi
sees the role of Asian women, particularly in villages, as key to revitalizing
the economic system by integrating home with work.
Shivani Chakravorty
critiques Joshi's article as overly utopian, but also advocates gender equity. (South
Asia futures)
The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies. Vol 1: Foundations.
Edited by Richard A. Slaughter (Futures Study Centre, Melbourne). Hawthorn,
Victoria, Australia: DDM Media Group, July 1996/372p/AUS$250;US$195 for 3 Vol
set. (Available from WFS Book Service.)
Futures studies needs to refine and develop its knowledge base.
The KBFS series, originating in an earlier Special Issue of
Futures
(April 1993; FS
Annual 1994 #12723), seeks: 1) to help make FS clearer and more
useful; 2) to contribute to an intercultural dialogue on the resolution of
systemic problems and the framing of viable futures; 3) to provide a sound basis
for new courses in FS; 4) to provide information and encouragement for
innovations of many kinds; 5) to support the process of creating a society-wide
foresight capacity; 6) to constitute a gift to future generations. Core elements
of the FS field can be regarded as a knowledge base; at a minimum, they include
futures concepts and metaphors, futures literature, futures organizations,
futures methods and tools, imaging processes, and social innovations.
After four Forewords (by Edward Cornish, Jim Dator, Tony
Stevenson, and Hugues de Jouvenel), the 13 essays in this volume follow in four
parts: 1) Origins:
I.F. Clarke
on the evolution of 20th century futures thinking from amateurs to experts,
Peter Moll
on futures studies in Europe and the US over the past 50 years,
Wendell Bell
on the modern futures field (describing purposes and general assumptions of
futurists); 2)
Futures Concepts and Metaphors:
Anthony J.N. Judge
on developing a metaphorical language,
Eleonora Masini
on international perspectives and futures-oriented studies in non-Western
cultures, Richard
A. Slaughter on futures concepts (alternatives and choices,
breakdown and renewal, sustainability, empowerment, the 200 year present,
transformational societies, global problematique, the foresight principle);
3) The Futures
Literature:
Kjell Dahle
on 55 key works,
Edward James and
Farah Mendlesohn
on science fiction,
Michael Marien
on the recent literature of cultural trends, troubles, and transformations [FS
Annual 1994 #12160];
4) Foundations of Futures
Studies:
Allen Tough on seven priorities
for knowledge of our future,
Sohail
Inayatullah on methods and
epistemologies,
Jay Ogilvy on scenario planning, critical theory, and the role
of hope, Ziauddin
Sarder on non-western cultures in futures studies. Slaughter
provides a 42-page
Glossary of Futures Terms
(curiously reprinted in both Vol 2 and Vol 3). (foundations
of futures studies)
The Futures of Development: Selections from the Tenth World Conference of the
World Futures Studies Federation. Edited by Eleonora Masini
(Gregorian U, Rome), Jim Dator (U of Hawaii), and Sharon Rodgers (U of Hawaii).
Paris: UNESCO Future-Oriented Studies Programme (Bureau of Studies and
Programming), Aug 1991/491p(8x11).
Selections from the biggest WFSF conference ever, held in Beijing
(PRC) in September 1988, are in ten sections:
1) Future of the Future: Johan
Galtung on the decline in futures studies, Harlan Cleveland on the ingredients
of success, Renée-Marie Croose Parry on the need for futures studies to make the
leap toward pro-existence;
2) Norms and Values of
Development: J.C. Kapur on the decline of consumerist utopias,
Walter M. Kroner on the architect's power to design our future, Anthony M.
Mlikotin on sources of the future in human nature, Radmila Nakarada on
principles of balanced development (balancing the possible and desirable, the
traditional and modern), Satish C. Seth on futures consciousness, Henryk
Skolimowski on building quality of life and ethical values into models of
sustainable development, Ibrihim Abdel Rahman on development and cultural
identity; 3)
Culture: Eleonora Masini on alternative cultural futures,
Benjamin T. Hourani on post-industrial society and Third World development,
Sohail
Inayatullah on PROUT (Progressive Utilization Theory) as a
viable strategy to transform the capitalism system, Bart van Steenbergen on the
influence of the East on cultural renewal of the West, Wu Xiaolong on political
culture as key to the world future;
4) World Economy:
James Brock on applying futures studies in business ventures, Anna Coen on
scenarios of consumption and employment in Italy, Jiri Farek on technological
progress in developing countries, Brian Murphy on macromarketing and
development, Kaoru Yamaguchi on a paradigm shift in economics that moves beyond
Toffler's Third Wave;
5) Environment and
Development: Raimondo Cagiano de Azevedo on the growing
importance of population issues, Nandini Joshi on the charkha (hand-spinning
wheel) way of altering the techno-economic process, Hwa Yol Jung and Petee Jung
on "ecopiety" as a new ethic for securing a safe future, Eugene B. Williams on
effective health care, Jerzy A. Wojciechowski on globalization from the
ecology-of-knowledge point of view;
6) Rural and Urban
Development: Tibor Hottovy on spatial impact of new technology
in Sweden, James Robertson on investment in local economic self-reliance,
Ibrahim Jammal and Michael Gurstein on reversing inequities in rural-urban
development, Mesbah-us-Saleheen on future urban growth in Bangladesh;
7) High and Traditional
Technologies: Bao Zhong-Hang on outer space as the fundamental
way out for humankind, Deng Shoupeng on ten high-tech industries of the future,
Qin Pinduan on the future impact of robots, Ana Maria Sandi on impact studies of
high technologies, Tony Stevenson on policy issues for communicating in the
Pacific, I.G. Ushkalov and B.A. Kheifets on the challenge of the technical
revolution, Clement Bezold and Robert Olson on alternative futures for infotech
and the information industry in 2000;
8) Changing Political
Institutions: Yehezkel Dror on 8 proposals to upgrade capacity
of central minds of government to engage in social architecture and 22
principles for advanced policy reasoning, Gong Xiangrui on the long-range goal
of building a socialist political system with a high degree of democracy, Jiang
Shunxue on the military future in China, A.J.N. Judge on governing sustainable
development through metaphor, Tetsuo Ogawa on the future of Japan beyond the
hegemonic state, Hiroshi Ouchi on the Asian Pacific system in 2000, Tuk Chu Chun
on prospects for a Korean confederation as an interim arrangement for
reunification; 9)
Education, Women, Children: Ruthanne Kurth-Schai on children's
images of the future, Mitsuko Saito-Fukunaga on the future for Japanese women,
Allen Tough on nine goals for the next 100 years, Xiao Qi-hong on cultivating
capable people in China, Rick Slaughter on the premises and promises of Critical
Futures Study, William H. Boyer on a proposed "universal curriculum" grounded in
human rights. Concludes with working group reports on development values,
culture, world economy, ecological development, rural-urban development,
political institutions, education (with notes on four generations of futurists),
women, children, and entrepreneurship. [NOTE:
West meets East in perhaps the most diverse futures compendium ever; frequently
idealistic, but a useful contrast to the generally more short-term thinking of
the UNDP Round Table, above.]
(WFSF
Beijing Conference proceedings)
What Futurists Think (Special Issue). Edited by Sohail
Inayatullah
(Queensland U of Technology).
Futures,
28:6/7, Aug-Sept 1996/509-694.
Over 100 futurists were invited to write a brief essay on what
they do, what has influenced them, how they work, the forces creating the world,
and/or the world they would like to live in. They are said to be selected so as
to balance culture, age, gender, and theoretical perspective. Some of the 52
essays herein:
Olugbenga Adesida seeks to put across constructive ideas on the
future of Africa and advocates an ethos of sustainability;
Walter Truett Anderson
calls himself an "evolutionist" and mentions a book he is writing on
The Future of the Self;
Wendell Bell
sees himself as part of a social movement "whose members aim to improve the
freedom and welfare of humankind";
Clement Bezold
notes that "the contribution of futures to making a better world is likely to be
as great or greater in the marketplace and through corporations as through
governments";
Elise Boulding reiterates her mind-stretching notion of the
"200-year present" (reaching from the year of birth of today's centenarians to
the 100th birthday of babies born today);
Kjell Dahle
poses a positive vision for 2025 of a caring global community, the EU dissolved,
self-reliance, wide participation, top priority to critical education, and
sustainability;
Jim Dator confesses that he has been "a total failure" because
the world is a worse place than when he started in futures studies 30 years ago
(he does not see the 21st century as likely to be very pleasant, but holds "some
hope" for the 22nd century);
Yehezkel Dror
reiterates his ongoing concern with improving governmental critical choices;
Riane Eisler
reiterates her ongoing concern with realizing a female/male partnership model of
human relations;
Johan Galtung fears that "peace and futures studies have become
too deficient in visionary quality for fear of being marginalized" [NOTE:
he has it completely backward: trite and low quality visions create
marginalization];
Hazel Henderson
recounts her struggles against "economism" (the paradigm that sees economics as
the primary focus of public policy);
Sohail
Inayatullah hopes for a long-term
future that is ecologically sensitive, gender-cooperative, and inspiringly
spiritual;
Anthony Judge explains his long-term interest in "transformative
conferencing" and richer metaphors;
David Loye
fears the escalation of environmental collapse and an increase in terrorism and
violence, while applauding the environmental movement and the women's movement;
Oliver W. Markley
outlines transformation from an information era to an era of global
consciousness as desirable and feasible;
Ashis Nandy
views futures studies as a means of criticizing the dominant social
consciousness, an attempt to widen human choices, and a game of dissenting
visions; Ziauddin
Sardar describes his work on shaping a current discourse on
Islamic futures and why the future belongs to Asia;
Satish Seth
describes his work involving futurology workshops and university courses, the
Indian Council of Management and Future, and the All-India Futurist Network.
[NOTE:
Many of these futurists describe a personal background in several countries or
cultures. No techies here; rather, virtually all express a worldview favoring
sustainability, more democracy, diversity, decentralization, peacefulness,
gender balance, etc. In contrast,
What Futurists Believe
by Joseph F. Coates and Jennifer Jarratt (Lomond, 1989;
FS Annual 1990
#10234), clearly offers
less
diversity in futurists (examining the views of 17 aging white male futurists, 15
of them Americans), but, ironically,
greater
The Futures of State Courts (Special Issues). Edited by Sohail
Inayatullah (Communications Centre, Queensland U of Technology,
Brisbane). Futures
Research Quarterly, 9:4, Winter 1993/88p & 10:1, Spring 1994/80p.
The Winter 1993 issue is largely devoted to futurists on emerging
legal issues. Jim
Dator lists five "Tsunamis" of gigantic change (global
overpopulation, the global economy, environmental degradation, new technologies,
and disintegration and reunification of old and new nation-states) and four
scenarios (teleworking global justice, decentralized green and feminist justice,
inertia forever, and judicial leadership).
Clement Bezold
considers some challenges that sci/tech will pose to future courts (virtual
reality, rights of robots, genetic issues, psychic crime).
Sharon Rodgers
describes culturally appropriate dispute resolution in the Hawaii Judicial
system. Wendy L.
Schultz ponders alternative futures of immigration, ethnic
composition, and community conflict as the white majority continues to wane.
Frances Kahn
Zemans criticizes scenarios presented at the 1991 Hawaii
Judicial Foresight Congress for not going far enough.
Paul Alston
presents a lawyer's view of societal pressures for reform and the future of the
justice system.
The Spring 1994 issue is largely devoted to the views of those
associated with various judicial systems.
Donald Dahlin of South Dakota
reports on state court long range planning (18 states reported at least one
finished product) and explains the dominance of short-term thinking (being
overwhelmed by present problems, blindnesses to the future, fragmentation of the
court system, the lack of involvement of high status stakeholders).
Sohail
Inayatullah [formerly a futures
researcher with the Hawaii Judiciary] examines how the present and the future
can be linked in judicial bureaucracies. Other essays describe judicial planning
in Virginia, trends and future activities of the Sixth Judicial Circuit of
Florida, the work of the Georgia "Court Futures Vanguard" (a group of over 100
government representatives, lawyers, and citizens), the Commission on the Future
of the Courts in Massachusetts, and the Commission on the Future of the
California Courts. Closes with a "Judicial Foresight Bibliography" of about 160
items. (judicial
futures)
The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives on the Futures of the
University. Edited by
Sohail
Inayatullah
(Queensland U of Technology) and Jennifer Gidley (Southern Cross U,
Lismore, Australia). Westport CT: Bergin & Garvey (Greenwood), Jan
2000/270p/$65.00.
The traditional university is under challenge/threat from various
forces worldwide. Four crucial drivers are globalism, multiculturalism,
virtualization and the Internet, and politicization (the university as a site of
dissent in the South, and as part of the postindustrial problematique in the
North). The 19 essays, seeking to provide insights into alternative futures, are
in four parts: 1)
Western Perspectives: the modern university as a Tower of Babel
and the need for transdisciplinary studies, challenges to university survival
under radically shrinking public budgets (mass provider institutions will be
much more entrepreneurial), new "convenience institutions" to serve the
potential world market of 185 million students in the next five years, visions
of the virtual university and faculty reaction, the transition from bricks to
bytes (by Jim Dator, who notes that Western culture "is not likely to be
the dominant culture of the 21st century and beyond"), the half-life
of knowledge and time/space as costs (by Tom Abeles), three scenarios for
the future university (status quo, the commodified university, the on-line
learning community), elements of a futures active learning system;
2) Nonwestern
Perspectives: recovery of indigenous knowledge and dissenting
futures (by Ashis Nandy, who seeks pluralizing knowledge), alternatives
for Pakistani universities (privatization, Islamization, modernization), the
university in the Middle East, universities in the Caribbean;
3) Alternative Universities: a
vision of a future women's university, Tantra as an episteme for future
generations (the educational philosophy of P. R. Sarkar), advanced
learning networks and experience camps, consciousness-based education;
4) Transformations of the
University: three likely scenarios by
Sohail
Inayatullah
(the airline partnership model of transferable credits in a global web, the
virtual university with face-to-face workshops, and lifelong learning in a
global leisure society), three scenarios for faculty and institutions by
Jennifer Gidley (the broker, the mentor, and the meaning-maker; the
corporatized mega-university, the traditional "brand name" model, and the
alternative or regional "niche" model. [NOTE:
Suggests a wide range of alternatives. A useful companion to Duderstadt (above),
who, from long experience, has a deeper understanding of a wider variety of
trends--yet is no less creative in articulating options.]
(university
alternatives)
Deconstructing the Year 2000: Opening Up An
Alternative Future,
Sohail
Inayatullah (Prof of Futures Studies, Queensland
U of Technology),
WFSF Futures Bulletin (World Futures Studies Federation;
www.WorldFutures.org), 26:1, April-May 2000, p1, 8-10.
Unfortunately, most visions of the long-term future remain
technocratic. Can we expect the world problematique to change? "We should not be
stupid and forget the deep structures that mitigate against change: the symbols
of progress, of velocity (the Internet era), of soft fascism, monoculture
appropriating the other (Disneyland), of artificiality (genetics and plastic
surgery) and standardization (McDonalds) remain dominant. The future will be
driven by technological linear progress, with corporations as the world's
leaders." Yet there are positive signs: 1) an emerging language, an ethos of an
alternative future, the possibility of a "communication-inclusive society"
(gender equality, living softly with nature, commitment to future generations, a
spiritual core) and authentic civilizational dialogue; 2) the language of rights
has become dominant, and a powerful vehicle for social change, although "slavery
continues in practice" [even worse, it is taking a new form; see
FS
22:3/166]; 3) the future must be personalized, and future generations
studies personalizes the future, locating it in family and in the real lives of
our children's children; 4) although capitalism continues to flourish and
expand, there is at least a language of economic democracy, corporate
accountability, and the quadruple bottom-line (gender, profit, nature, society);
5) globalism, even as it reduces the choices of most people, gives us a language
that can be used for systemic transformation; 6) the language of action at a
distance (ideas, fields of awareness) can transform the world. Is any of this
likely? We need to see postmodernity, the loss of a center, as a natural
end-phase of modernity; following a period of chaos, there will be a return to a
new universalism--a better period for the majority of the world, based on
decentralized economies. "Alternatively, the artificial future, where only a few
work and the rest of us exist without meaning or hope, remains possible, even
probable." (alternative
to the artificial future)
The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies. Vol 3: Directions and Outlooks.
Edited by Richard A. Slaughter (Futures Study Centre, Melbourne). Hawthorn,
Victoria: DDM Media Group, July 1996/396p.
The 18 contributions are in three parts:
1) New Directions in
Futures Thinking:
Vuokko Jarva
on female futures studies,
Ivana Milojevic
on principles for non-sexist futures research (acknowledge the pervasive
influence of gender, be concerned about ethical implications of research,
emphasize transformation of patriarchal institutions),
Qin Linzheng
on the interdisciplinary construction of the futures field,
Mika Mannermaa
on chaos and the new evolutionary paradigm,
Richard A. Slaughter on
implementing foresight for future generations,
Yehezkel Dror
on core tasks and deficiencies of futures studies,
Wendell Bell
on a proposed Code of Professional Ethics for Futurists,
Sohail
Inayatullah on a new
post-development vision that challenges linear and cyclical visions of the
future; 2) Outlook
for the New Millennium:
Ervin Laszlo
on three scenarios for the human future (laissez-faire, government-managed,
world order),
Ashis Nandy on the dissent of the shaman and re-imagining the
Third World,
Keith Suter on a five-point strategy for waging peace,
Mahdi Elmandjra on cultural
diversity as key to future survival,
Lester W. Milbrath
on envisioning a sustainable society,
Charles Birch
on values for the 21st century (ecological sustainability, justice for
non-humans, re-enchantment of science),
Godwin Sogolo
on the futures of Africa,
Susantha Goonatilake
on traversing future technologies with ancient Buddhist concepts;
3) The Long View:
Herbert G.
Gerjuoy on the most significant events of the next thousand
years [FRQ,
Fall 1992; FS
Annual 1994 #12170],
Duane Elgin
on the challenge of planetary civilization [FS
Annual 1994 #12167].
[NOTE:
Overall, these three volumes are an heroic attempt to define the KBFS, with many
excellent essays, especially on methodology. However, "the field" may still be
underestimated by a factor of perhaps 10, or even 20 (which raises the question:
is FS a "field" at all?). For example, KBFS Volume 2 profiles five futures
organizations (admitted to be a "small sample"), whereas
The Futures Research
Directory: Organizations and Periodicals 1993-94 (WFS, 1993;
FS Annual 1994
#12722) profiles 187 organizations and 124 periodicals--and many other important
organizations are missing. Both
Future Survey
and The
Encyclopedia of the Future (FS
18:4, #96-151) treat a far broader subject range (and, according to co-editor
Graham Molitor, the
Encyclopedia
only contains about 40% of what it could ideally cover). KBFS is essentially on
world futures, with little or nothing on technology, cities, health, education,
business, crime, etc). KBFS promotes a single ideology/worldview (essentially
humanist/democratic/ecological and often idealistic) not opposing views. Is a
broader but messier view more realistic and desirable? If not, why?] (directions
of futures studies?)
Complexity: Fad or Future? (Special Issue). Edited by Ziauddin
Sardar (London; Consulting Editor,
Futures) and
Jerome R. Ravetz (Joint Research Centre, Commission of the European
Communities). Futures,
26:6, July-Aug 1994, 567-696.
20th-century mathematics has undergone a succession of fashions
(game theory, fuzzy sets, catastrophe theory), each claiming that it would solve
most if not all the world's problems. Now we have complexity or complex systems:
is it just a fashion, or will it have a more lasting impact on the way in which
we conceive and operate on the world around us? These essays discuss complex
systems as the focus of important innovative research (reflecting the
progressive displacement of classical physics), chaos and evolution, paradigms
of ecological function, complexity and coevolution, hierarchy theory and
sustainable development, a thermodynamic paradigm for the development of
ecosystems, and a review by Sohail
Inayatullah of three recent books on complexity and
its implications. In a long essay on Western and non-Western science, Sardar
notes that the new sciences of chaos and complexity display all the traits of
postmodernism: emphasis on diversity, abolition of the ontology of separateness,
and accent on interconnectedness of everything. Complex systems have the ability
to balance order and chaos at the "edge of chaos." Chaos and complexity
undermine reductionism and paint a more pluralistic picture of reality than
modern science. Complexity makes chaotic all the assumptions and assurances with
which science has operated for the past 400 years. (implications
of complex systems thinking)
The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies (Special Issue). Edited by
Richard A. Slaughter (Inst. of Education, U of Melbourne).
Futures,
25:3, April 1993, 227-374.
Slaughter states that the knowledge base of futures studies is no
more challenging, no less soundly based, than many other fields. "The futures
field may or may not be a discipline in the narrow sense. What is
incontrovertible is that it produces working knowledge and supports disciplined
enquiry." A viable model emerges from the layering of six core elements: 1)
language, concepts, and metaphors (alternatives,
options, sustainability); 2) theories, ideas, and images (evolution,
progress, chaos, wise culture); 3) literature [a core of "about 200
key books" is mentioned but not explicated]; 4) organizations, networks,
practitioners (WFS,
WFSF, Club of Rome); 5) methodologies and tools (scanning,
scenarios, Delphi, models); 6) social movements and innovations (peace,
women, environment). Although the field may have fallen on hard
times in some contexts, the times are ripe for a steady resurgence of futures
work because it is important.
Seven long essays reinforce this view of core elements.
Sohail
Inayatullah describes three
frames of reference (the predictive, the interpretive, the critical), poses
basic images of the future (growth, collapse, reversion to past,
transformation), and lists 20 metaphors of time (generational, lifecycle,
leisure, lunar/solar, geological, cosmic, etc).
Martha J. Garrett outlines the
steps of the futures project (clarifying purpose, hiring a team, building
networks, etc) and the futures study (gathering information, determining key
variables, constructing scenarios, selecting strategies, etc).
Anthony J. N. Judge
recalls some of the cognitive functions of metaphor and applies them to the
future as "what" (leaps, jumps, good times, Gaia), "where" (forwards, the future
in children), "which" (choice between alternatives), "when" (linear progress,
cycles), "who" (the future as the returning Christ or Anti-Christ, or as a
leader such as Bill Clinton), "how" (chickens come home to roost, riding waves
of change), and "why."
Richard Slaughter
defines three core areas of activity in the futures field (futures research,
futures studies, futures movements), and articulates 20 key concepts such as
choices, sustainability, the metaproblem, cultural editing, re-negotiating
meanings, the foresight principle, limits to growth).
Ian Miles
considers the tenuous relationship of science fiction to futures studies,
finding much SF unable to cast light upon the present.
Hazel Henderson
points to citizen movements as social early warning systems that prefigure
trends, noting that they have emerged as major actors leading the worldwide
search for global ethics and survival-enhancing cultural DNA codes.
Rolf Homann
and Peter H. Moll
survey the Western futures organizations (WFS, WFSF, Futuribles, and a few
others), finding "a surprising lack of cooperation" and questioning the
management of most.
Ten mini-essays on the futures studies knowledge base are also
included. W.
Basil McDermott points to the problems of generating new
knowledge, such as revealing complexity and previously hidden problems.
Michel Godet
cautions against reducing anticipation to scenario building.
Yehezkel Dror
views most futures studies as a messy mix of superficial and fashionable
normative preferences, along with predictive outlooks that lack deep grounding.
Eleonora Barbieri
Masini applauds the role of women in building alternative
futures. Samar
Ihsan asserts that empowering women ensures the success of
democracy and the progress of society.
Magda Cordell McHale
cautions against cultural arrogance.
Allen Tough
urges more integrative and big picture thinking.
Igor Bestushev-Lada
considers how "barracks socialism" in Russia and elsewhere can be transformed
from a pathological situation to a normal one.
Donald N. Michael
reminds us that futures studies are epistemologically groundless, and that they
reflect a Western cultural bias.
Lester W. Milbrath
asserts that we have no other choice but to learn our way to a sustainable
society. Concludes with an annotated bibliography of selected non-US sources
from Europe, India, South Asia, the Pacific Basin, and Britain. [NOTE:
An ambitious project. Still, are the essential elements included (#93-405)? And
does this melange of tools add up to a "field"--or is it some other kind
of entity? Surely, one would think that futurists would consider alternative
models for their own enterprise. In any event, at present, this is the best
intermediate-level orientation to futures studies.]
(futures
studies knowledge base)
Advancing Democracy and Participation. Edited by Bart van
Steenbergen, Rudmila Nakarada, Felix Marti, and Jim Dator.
08037 Barcelona: Centre Catala de Prospectiva and Centre UNESCO de Catalunya
(Mallorca, 285), Sept 1992/211p(8x11).
Selections from the XII World Conference of the World Futures
Studies Federation, held in Barcelona in September 1991, including Christopher
B. Jones on democracy as if the planet mattered (synthesizing feminism, ecology,
and participatory organizations), Bart van Steenbergen on ecological citizenship
for the 21st century (the new Earth citizen as an active participant), Eleonora
Masini on democracy and women, Sohail
Inayatullah
on the democratic vision of the late P.R. Sarkar, Godwin Sogolo on democracy and
participation in Africa, Samuel Decalo on redemocratization in Africa, John W.
Forje on the experience of advancing democracy in Cameroon, Jaganath Pathy on
the strategy of sustainable self-development or ethnodevelopment, Ikram Azam on
promoting participative democracy in the Third World, Ana Maria Sandi on
prospects for restoring civil structures in fast-changing Eastern Europe, Tony
Stevenson and Darren Schmidt on communication and learning in the transition to
participatory social organization and development, Sirkka Heinonen on infotech
encouraging participation in building a sustainable society, Jim Dator on the
relationship between democracy and IT, Anthony J.N. Judge on improving
participation in international conferences such as those of WFSF, Richard
Slaughter on an agenda for the 21st century and the need for a wisdom culture,
Wendy Schultz on futures workshops in Hawaii and structured dreams, and Antonio
Alonso Concheiro reflecting on the entire conference.
(WFSF
1991 Barcelona conference)
World System Futures: After the Terror,
Sohail
Inayatullah
(Professor, Tamkang U-Taiwan, Sunshine Coast U-Australia, and Queensland U of
Technology). www.wfs.org, 4 pages, Sept 2001.
This terrifying crime against humanity can be explained (but
never justified) by the equation of perceived injustice +
nationalism/religious-ism + an asymmetrical world order. To survive, humankind
needs to move to a new level of identity. As Phil Graham (U of Queensland)
writes, "We are the Other. We have become alienated from our common humanity,
and the attribute, hope, image, that might save us--the `globalization' of
humanity." There are crucial differences between Bush and bin Laden, but there
is a similarity: the US and England are the main exporters of weapons, creating
increasing levels of planetary insecurity, as do the terrorists. Each distorts
what it means to be human by focusing on one dimension. We need a dialogue of
civilizations, and within religions, between the hard and soft side. Social
movements must continue challenging the asymmetrical nature of the world
system--the structural violence and silent emergencies--and push for a new
globalization while protecting local systems that are not
racist/sexist/predatory. Resolving the equation of terror must deal with crimes
against humanity (which cannot be tolerated) as well as perceived injustices,
the "isms," and world system structure.
Three scenarios suggest the near and long-term future:
1) Fortress USA/OECD:
this gives a short-term illusion of security, but will result in poverty and
sham democracies where real power lies with the right wing aligned with the
military/police complex; the Islamic world will respond with Fortress Islam,
becoming even more feudal and mullahist, and forcing individuals to be "with us
or against us," denying the multiplicity of selves that we are becoming; without
root issues being resolved, terror will find other vehicles of expression. "Fortresses
are remembered in history for being overrun, not for successful defense against
`others'."
2) Cowboy War--Vengeance
Forever: Bush has evoked the Wild West and the consequences are
endless escalation in a war that the US may win (or get mired in a new Vietnam);
Cowboy War will work in the short term, but eventually could slowly lead to
global fascism. There are fortunate signs that Bush and others are listening to
their soft sides and building friendships and seeking long-term solutions.
3) Gaian Bifurcation:
we cannot make traditionalists modern; rather, we must move from tradition to a
transmodernity inclusive of multiple, layered realities--a Gaia of
interdependent civilizations plus a system of international justice. A new
equity-based multicultural globalization means moving to world governance, human
(and animal) rights, economic democracy, gender partnership, a transformed UN
with increased direct democracy, and an emergent healing discourse (toward
others, toward the planet, and for future generations). "In workshops around the
world, this is a desired future." We must have the courage to create this
integrated planetary civilization that moves us beyond the capitalist West and
the feudalized, ossified non-West. "I hope it will emerge through
ahimsa
(inner
and outer non-violence), and not versions of endless terror. We need to choose
life." [NOTE:
Inayatullah is a widely-published futurist scholar who was born
in Pakistan and raised in New York, Indiana, Geneva, Islamabad, Kuala Lumpur,
and Honolulu. This work is part of the MP scenario effort (23:10/473).]
(need to move to
transmodernity)
|